Search results for: generalized linear model (GLM)

Authors: David Nieto Simavilla, Wilco M. H. Verbeeten

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The viscoelastic behavior of polymeric flows under isothermal conditions has been extensively researched. However, most of the processing of polymeric materials occurs under non-isothermal conditions and understanding the linkage between the thermo-physical properties and the process state variables remains a challenge. Furthermore, the cost and energy required to manufacture, recycle and dispose polymers is strongly affected by the thermo-physical properties and their dependence on state variables such as temperature and stress. Experiments show that thermal conductivity in flowing polymers is anisotropic (i.e. direction dependent). This phenomenon has been previously omitted in the study and simulation of industrially relevant flows. Our work combines experimental evidence of a universal relationship between thermal conductivity and stress tensors (i.e. the stress-thermal rule) with differential constitutive equations for the viscoelastic behavior of polymers to provide predictions for the anisotropy in thermal conductivity in uniaxial, planar, equibiaxial and shear flow in commercial polymers. A particular focus is placed on the eXtended Pom-Pom model which is able to capture the non-linear behavior in both shear and elongation flows. The predictions provided by this approach are amenable to implementation in finite elements packages, since viscoelastic and thermal behavior can be described by a single equation. Our results include predictions for flow-induced anisotropy in thermal conductivity for low and high density polyethylene as well as confirmation of our method through comparison with a number of thermoplastic systems for which measurements of anisotropy in thermal conductivity are available. Remarkably, this approach allows for universal predictions of anisotropy in thermal conductivity that can be used in simulations of complex flows in which only the most fundamental rheological behavior of the material has been previously characterized (i.e. there is no need for additional adjusting parameters other than those in the constitutive model). Accounting for polymers anisotropy in thermal conductivity in industrially relevant flows benefits the optimization of manufacturing processes as well as the mechanical and thermal performance of finalized plastic products during use.

Keywords: anisotropy, differential constitutive models, flow simulations in polymers, thermal conductivity

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Authors: F. Longo, G. Granello, G. Tecchio, F. Da Porto

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Unreinforced masonry (URM) infill walls are widely used throughout the world, also in seismic prone regions, as partitions in reinforced concrete building frames. Even if they do not represent structural elements, they can dramatically affect both strength and stiffness of RC structures by acting as a diagonal strut, modifying shear and displacements distribution along the building height, with uncertain consequences on structural safety. In the last decades, many refined models have been developed to describe infill walls effect on frame structural behaviour, but generally restricted to in-plane actions. Only very recently some new approaches were implemented to consider in-plane/out-of-plane interaction of URM infill walls in progressive collapse simulations. In the present work, a particularly promising macro-model was adopted for the progressive collapse analysis of infilled RC frames. The model allows to consider the bi-directional interaction in terms of displacement and strength capacity for URM infills, and to remove the infill contribution when the URM wall is supposed to fail during the analysis process. The model was calibrated on experimental data regarding two different URM panels thickness, modelling with particular care the post-critic softening branch. A frame specimen set representing the most common Italian structures was built considering two main normative approaches: a traditional design philosophy, corresponding to structures erected between 50’s-80’s basically designed to support vertical loads, and a seismic design philosophy, corresponding to current criteria that take into account horizontal actions. Non-Linear Static analyses were carried out on the specimen set and some preliminary evaluations were drawn in terms of different performance exhibited by the RC frame when the contemporary effect of the out-of-plane damage is considered for the URM infill.

Keywords: infill Panels macromodels, in plane-out of plane interaction, RC frames, URM infills

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Authors: Ahmed Aljudaya, Derek Ingham, Lin Ma, Kevin Hughes, Mohammed Pourkashanian

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Researchers, power companies, and state politicians have given concentrated solar power (CSP) much attention due to its capacity to generate large amounts of electricity whereas overcoming the intermittent nature of solar resources. The Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) is a well-known CSP technology type for being inexpensive, having a low land use factor, and suffering from low optical efficiency. The LFR was considered a cost-effective alternative option to the Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC) because of its simplistic design, and this often outweighs its lower efficiency. The LFR has been found to be a promising option for directly producing steam to a thermal cycle in order to generate low-cost electricity, but also it has been shown to be promising for indirect steam generation. The purpose of this important analysis is to compare the annual performance of the Direct Steam Generation (DSG) and Indirect Steam Generation (ISG) of LFR power plants using molten salt and other different Heat Transfer Fluids (HTF) to investigate their technical and economic effects. A 50 MWe solar-only system is examined as a case study for both steam production methods in extreme weather conditions. In addition, a parametric analysis is carried out to determine the optimal solar field size that provides the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) while achieving the highest technical performance. As a result of optimizing the optimum solar field size, the solar multiple (SM) is found to be between 1.2 – 1.5 in order to achieve as low as 9 Cent/KWh for the direct steam generation of the linear Fresnel reflector. In addition, the power plant is capable of producing around 141 GWh annually and up to 36% of the capacity factor, whereas the ISG produces less energy at a higher cost. The optimization results show that the DSG’s performance overcomes the ISG in producing around 3% more annual energy, 2% lower LCOE, and 28% less capital cost.

Keywords: concentrated solar power, levelized cost of electricity, linear Fresnel reflectors, steam generation

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Authors: Jurij Tasinkiewicz

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The aim of this work is to present a theoretical analysis of a 2D ultrasound transducer comprised of crossed arrays of metal strips placed on both sides of thin piezoelectric layer (a). Such a structure is capable of electronic beam-steering of generated wave beam both in elevation and azimuth. In this paper, a semi-analytical model of the considered transducer is developed. It is based on generalization of the well-known BIS-expansion method. Specifically, applying the electrostatic approximation, the electric field components on the surface of the layer are expanded into fast converging series of double periodic spatial harmonics with corresponding amplitudes represented by the properly chosen Legendre polynomials. The problem is reduced to numerical solving of certain system of linear equations for unknown expansion coefficients.

Keywords: beamforming, transducer array, BIS-expansion, piezoelectric layer

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.

Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience

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Authors: Bao Liu, Maarten Vanierschot, Frank Buysschaert

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The present work examines the wake dynamics of a rim-driven thruster (RDT) with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations were solved in the commercial solver ANSYS Fluent in combination with the SST k-ω turbulence model. The application of the moving reference frame (MRF) and sliding mesh (SM) approach to handling the rotational movement of the propeller were compared in the transient simulations. Validation and verification of the numerical model was performed to ensure numerical accuracy. Two representative scenarios were considered, i.e., the bollard condition (J=0) and a very light loading condition(J=0.7), respectively. From the results, it’s confirmed that compared to the SM method, the MRF method is not suitable for resolving the unsteady flow features as it only gives the general mean flow but smooths out lots of characteristic details in the flow field. By evaluating the simulation results with the SM technique, the instantaneous wake flow field under both conditions is presented and analyzed, most notably the helical vortex structure. It’s observed from the results that the tip vortices, blade shed vortices, and hub vortices are present in the wake flow field and convect downstream in a highly non-linear way. The shear layer vortices shedding from the duct displayed a strong interaction with the distorted tip vortices in an irregularmanner.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, rim-driven thruster, sliding mesh, wake dynamics

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Authors: B. Bouadjemi, S. Bentata, W. Benstaali, A. Abbad

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The electronic and magnetic properties of the cubic praseodymium oxides perovskites PrMnO3 were calculated using the density functional theory (DFT) with both generalized gradient approximation (GGA) and GGA+U approaches, where U is on-site Coulomb interaction correction. The results show a half-metallic ferromagnetic ground state for PrMnO3 in GGA+U approached, while semi-metallic ferromagnetic character is observed in GGA. The results obtained, make the cubic PrMnO3 a promising candidate for application in spintronics.

Keywords: first-principles, electronic properties, transition metal, materials science

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Authors: Erick Pruchnicki, Nikhil Padhye

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Plates are important engineering structures which have attracted extensive research since the 19th century. The subject of this work is statical analysis of a linearly elastic homogenous plate under small deformations. A 'thin plate' is a three-dimensional structure comprising of a small transverse dimension with respect to a flat mid-surface. The general aim of any plate theory is to deduce a two-dimensional model, in terms of mid-surface quantities, to approximately and accurately describe the plate's deformation in terms of mid-surface quantities. In recent decades, a common starting point for this purpose is to utilize series expansion of a displacement field across the thickness dimension in terms of the thickness parameter (h). These attempts are mathematically consistent in deriving leading-order plate theories based on certain a priori scaling between the thickness and the applied loads; for example, asymptotic methods which are aimed at generating leading-order two-dimensional variational problems by postulating formal asymptotic expansion of the displacement fields. Such methods rigorously generate a hierarchy of two-dimensional models depending on the order of magnitude of the applied load with respect to the plate-thickness. However, in practice, applied loads are external and thus not directly linked or dependent on the geometry/thickness of the plate; thus, rendering any such model (based on a priori scaling) of limited practical utility. In other words, the main limitation of these approaches is that they do not furnish a single plate model for all orders of applied loads. Following analogy of recent efforts of deploying Fourier-series expansion to study convergence of reduced models, we propose two-dimensional model(s) resulting from truncation of the potential energy and rigorously prove the convergence of these two-dimensional plate models to the parent three-dimensional linear elasticity with increasing truncation order of the potential energy.

Keywords: plate theory, Fourier-series expansion, convergence result, Legendre polynomials

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Authors: Shun-Qi Zhang, Shu-Yang Zhang, Min Chen, , Jing Bai

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Piezoelectric laminated smart structures can be subjected to the strong driving electric field, which may result in large displacements and rotations. In one hand, piezoelectric materials usually behave very significant material nonlinear effects under strong electric fields. On the other hand, thin-walled structures undergoing large displacements and rotations exist nonnegligible geometric nonlinearity. In order to give a precise prediction of piezo laminated smart structures under the large electric field, this paper develops a finite element (FE) model accounting for material nonlinearity (piezoelectric part) and geometric nonlinearity based on the first order shear deformation (FSOD) hypothesis. The proposed FE model is first validated by both experimental and numerical examples from the literature. Afterwards, it is applied to simulate for plate and shell structures with multiple piezoelectric patches under the strong applied electric field. From the simulation results, it shows that large discrepancies occur between linear and nonlinear predictions for piezoelectric laminated structures driving at the strong electric field. Therefore, both material and geometric nonlinearities should be taken into account for piezoelectric structures under strong electric.

Keywords: piezoelectric smart structures, finite element analysis, geometric nonlinearity, electroelastic material nonlinearities

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Authors: John Knight, Fuchun Li, Yan Xu

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Based on a new method of the nonparametric estimator of the drift function, we propose a consistent test for the parametric specification of the drift function in the short rate diffusion process using observations from a panel of yields. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric drift function is correctly specified, and converges to infinity under the alternative. Taking the daily 7-day European rates as a proxy of the short rate, we use our test to examine whether the drift of the short rate diffusion process is linear or nonlinear, which is an unresolved important issue in the short rate modeling literature. The testing results indicate that none of the drift functions in this literature adequately captures the dynamics of the drift, but nonlinear specification performs better than the linear specification.

Keywords: diffusion process, nonparametric estimation, derivative security price, drift function and volatility function

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Authors: Anandhi Santhosh

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In order to describe various real-world problems in physical and engineering sciences subject to abrupt changes at certain instants during the evolution process, impulsive differential equations has been used to describe the system model. In this article, the problem of approximate controllability for nonlinear impulsive integrodifferential equations with state-dependent delay is investigated. We study the approximate controllability for nonlinear impulsive integrodifferential system under the assumption that the corresponding linear control system is approximately controllable. Using methods of functional analysis and semigroup theory, sufficient conditions are formulated and proved. Finally, an example is provided to illustrate the proposed theory.

Keywords: approximate controllability, impulsive differential system, fixed point theorem, state-dependent delay

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Ria Forner

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Introduction: Due to increases in the SNR at 7T and above, it becomes more favourable to make use of X-nuclear imaging. Integrated body coils tuned to 120MHz for 31P, 79MHz for 23Na, and 75 MHz for 13C at 7T were simulated with a human male, female, or child body model to assess strategies of use for metabolic MR imaging in the body. Methods: B1 and SAR efficiencies in the heart, liver, spleen, and kidneys were assessed using numerical simulations over the three frequencies with phase shimming. Results: B1+ efficiency is highly variable over the different organs, particularly for the highest frequency; however, local SAR efficiency remains relatively constant over the frequencies in all subjects. Although the optimal phase settings vary, one generic phase setting can be identified for each frequency at which the penalty in B1+ is at a max of 10%. Discussion: The simulations provide practical strategies for power optimization, B1 management, and maintaining safety. As expected, the B1 field is similar at 75MHz and 79MHz, but reduced at 120MHz. However, the B1 remains relatively constant when normalised by the square root of the peak local SAR. This is in contradiction to generalized SAR considerations of 1H MRI at different field strengths, which is defined by global SAR instead. Conclusion: Although the B1 decreases with frequency, SAR efficiency remains constant throughout the investigated frequency range. It is possible to shim the body coil to obtain a maximum of 10% extra B1+ in a specific organ in a body when compared to a generic setting.

Keywords: birdcage, multi-nuclear, B1 shimming, 7 Tesla MRI, liver, kidneys, heart, spleen

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Sh. Mirhosseini, Y. Haghighatfar, M. Sedighi

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Forced vibration problem of a delaminated beam made of fiber metal laminates is studied in this paper. Firstly, a delamination is considered to divide the beam into four sections. The classic beam theory is assumed to dominate each section. The layers on two sides of the delamination are constrained to have the same deflection. This hypothesis approves the conditions of compatibility as well. Consequently, dynamic response of the beam is obtained by the means of differential transform method (DTM). In order to verify the correctness of the results, a model is constructed using commercial software ABAQUS 6.14. A linear spring with constant stiffness takes the effect of contact between delaminated layers into account. The attained semi-analytical outcomes are in great agreement with finite element analysis.

Keywords: delamination, forced vibration, finite element modelling, natural frequency

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Authors: Vincent Mokoka, Kai Behn, Edwin Mudongo, Jan Ruppert, Kingsley Ayisi, Anja Linstädter

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Severe drought may trigger a transition of vegetation composition in dryland grasslands, with productive perennial grasses often being replaced by annual grasses. Grazing pressure is thought to exacerbate drought effects, but little is known on the joint effects of grazing and drought on the functional and taxonomic composition of the herbaceous vegetation in African savannas. This study thus aimed to elucidate which herbaceous species and plant functional types (PFTs) are most resistant to prolonged drought and grazing and whether resting plays a role in this context. Thus, we performed a six-year field experiment in South Africa’s Limpopo province, combining drought and grazing treatments. Aboveground herbaceous biomass was harvested annually and separated into species. We grouped species into five PFTs, i.e. very broad-leaved perennial grasses, broad-leaved perennial grasses, narrow-leaved perennial grasses, annual grasses, and forbs. For all species, we also recorded three-leaf traits (leaf area - LA, specific leaf area – SLA, and leaf dry matter content – LDM) to describe their resource acquisition strategies. We used generalized linear models to test for treatment effects and their interaction. Association indices were used to detect the relationship between species and treatments. We found that there were no absolute winner species or PFTs, as the six-year severe drought had a pronounced negative impact on the biomass production of all species and PFTs. However, we detected relative winners with increases in relative abundances, mainly forbs and less palatable narrow-leafed grasses with comparatively low LA and high LDMC, such as Aristida stipidata Hack. These species and PFTs also tended to be favored by grazing. Although few species profited from resting, for most species, the combination of drought and resting proved to be particularly unfavorable. Winners and losers can indicate ecological transition and may be used to guide management decisions.

Keywords: aboveground net primary production, drought, functional diversity, winner and loser species

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Authors: Seyed Amin Vakili, Sahar Sadat Vakili, Seyed Ehsan Vakili, Nader Abdoli Yazdi

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The main purpose of this paper is to present the Modified Newmark Method of buckling analysis frame considering the effect of the axial load. The discussion will be restricted to plane frameworks containing a constant cross-section for each element. In addition, it is assumed that the frames are prevented from out-of-plane deflection. In this method, stiffness matrix of the structure is considered to be constant. The most important advantage of such a method is that it obtains both upper and lower critical loads. The advanced of the present method is fast convergence, ability to use computer simulations, and ability to model structures with semi-rigid support conditions using linear and rotational spring.

Keywords: buckling, stability, frame, modified newmark method

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Authors: Olga Maksakova

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A work with unconscious patients after acute brain damages besides special knowledge and practical skills of all the participants requires a very specific organization. A lot of said about team approach in neurorehabilitation, usually as for outpatient mode. Rehabilitologists deal with fixed patient problems or deficits (motion, speech, cognitive or emotional disorder). Team-building means superficial paradigm of management psychology. Linear mode of teamwork fits casual relationships there. Cases with deep altered states of consciousness (vegetative states, coma, and confusion) require non-linear mode of teamwork: recovery of consciousness might not be the goal due to phenomenon uncertainty. Rehabilitation team as Semi-open Complex System includes the patient as a part. Patient's response pattern becomes formed not only with brain deficits but questions-stimuli, context, and inquiring person. Teamwork is sourcing of phenomenology knowledge of patient's processes as Third-person approach is replaced with Second- and after First-person approaches. Here is a chance for real-time change. Patient’s contacts with his own body and outward things create a basement for restoration of consciousness. The most important condition is systematic feedbacks to any minimal movement or vegetative signal of the patient. Up to now, recovery work with the most severe contingent is carried out in the mode of passive physical interventions, while an effective rehabilitation team should include specially trained psychologists and psychotherapists. It is they who are able to create a network of feedbacks with the patient and inter-professional ones building up the team. Characteristics of ‘Team-Patient’ system (TPS) are energy, entropy, and complexity. Impairment of consciousness as the absence of linear contact appears together with a loss of essential functions (low energy), vegetative-visceral fits (excessive energy and low order), motor agitation (excessive energy and excessive order), etc. Techniques of teamwork are different in these cases for resulting optimization of the system condition. Directed regulation of the system complexity is one of the recovery tools. Different signs of awareness appear as a result of system self-organization. Joint meetings are an important part of teamwork. Regular or event-related discussions form the language of inter-professional communication, as well as the patient's shared mental model. Analysis of complex communication process in TPS may be useful for creation of the general theory of consciousness.

Keywords: rehabilitation team, urgent rehabilitation, severe brain damage, consciousness disorders, complex system theory

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Ruchika Sharma

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In the past decade, there has been an explosion of research that has examined children’s understanding of TV advertisements and its persuasive intent, socialization of child consumer and child psychology. However, it is evident from the literature review that no studies in this area have covered advertising messages and its impact on children’s brand recall and ad recognition. Copywriters use various creative devices to lure the consumers and very impressionable consumers such as children face far more drastic effects of these creative ways of persuasion. On the basis of Piaget’s theory of cognitive development as a theoretical basis for predicting/understanding children’s response and understanding, a quasi-experiment was carried out for the study, that manipulated measurement timing and advertising messages (familiar vs. unfamiliar) keeping gender and age group as two prominent factors. This study also examines children’s understanding of Advertisements and its elements, predominantly - Language, keeping in view Fishbein’s model. Study revealed significant associations between above mentioned factors and children’s brand recall and ad identification. Further, to test the reliability of the findings on larger sample, bootstrap simulation technique was used. The simulation results are in accordance with the findings of experiment, suggesting that the conclusions obtained from the study can be generalized for entire children’s (as consumers) market in India.

Keywords: advertising, brand recall, cognitive development, preferences

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Authors: Dongho Kim, Sung Choi, Kyowoong Pee, Youngsik Cho, Seungwoo Jeong, Soo-Ho Kim

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This study is about the orbital TIG welding robot system which travels on the guide rail installed on the pipe, and welds and tracks the pipe seam using the LVS (Laser Vision Sensor) joint profile data. The orbital welding robot system consists of the robot, welder, controller, and LVS. Moreover we can define the relationship between welding travel speed and wire feed speed, and we can make the linear equation using the maximum and minimum amount of weld metal. Using the linear equation we can determine the welding travel speed and the wire feed speed accurately corresponding to the area of weld captured by LVS. We applied this orbital TIG welding robot system to the stainless steel or duplex pipe on DSME (Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co. Ltd.,) shipyard and the result of radiographic test is almost perfect. (Defect rate: 0.033%).

Keywords: adaptive welding, automatic welding, pipe welding, orbital welding, laser vision sensor, LVS, welding D/B

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Qing Lyu, Hang Zhu

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Various flows in the network require to go through different types of middlebox. The improper placement of network middlebox and path assignment for flows could greatly increase the network latency and also decrease the performance of network. Minimizing the total end to end latency of all the ows requires to assign path for the incoming flows. In this paper, the flow path assignment problem in regard to the placement of various kinds of middlebox is studied. The flow path assignment problem is formulated to a linear programming problem, which is very time consuming. On the other hand, a naive greedy algorithm is studied. Which is very fast but causes much more latency than the linear programming algorithm. At last, the paper presents a heuristic algorithm named FPA, which takes bottleneck link information and estimated bandwidth occupancy into consideration, and achieves near optimal latency in much less time. Evaluation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: flow path, latency, middlebox, network

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Authors: Abdoulaye Diop, Nahid Emad, Thierry Winter, Mohamed Hilia

Abstract:

Data assets protection is a crucial issue in the cybersecurity field. Companies use logical access control tools to vault their information assets and protect them against external threats, but they lack solutions to counter insider threats. Nowadays, insider threats are the most significant concern of security analysts. They are mainly individuals with legitimate access to companies information systems, which use their rights with malicious intents. In several fields, behavior anomaly detection is the method used by cyber specialists to counter the threats of user malicious activities effectively. In this paper, we present the step toward the construction of a user and entity behavior analysis framework by proposing a behavior anomaly detection model. This model combines machine learning classification techniques and graph-based methods, relying on linear algebra and parallel computing techniques. We show the utility of an ensemble learning approach in this context. We present some detection methods tests results on an representative access control dataset. The use of some explored classifiers gives results up to 99% of accuracy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, data protection, access control, insider threat, user behavior analysis, ensemble learning, high performance computing

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Authors: George Adomako Kumi

Abstract:

The response of structural members, when subjected to various forms of non-proportional loading, plays a major role in the overall stability and integrity of a structure. This research seeks to present the outcome of a finite element investigation conducted by the use of finite element programming software ABAQUS to validate the experimental results of elastic and inelastic behavior and strength of beam-columns subjected to axial loading, biaxial bending, and torsion under ambient temperature conditions. The application of the rigorous and highly complicated ABAQUS finite element software will seek to account for material, non-linear geometry, deformations, and, more specifically, the contact behavior between the beam-columns and support surfaces. Comparisons of the three-dimensional model with the results of actual tests conducted and results from a solution algorithm developed through the use of the finite difference method will be established in order to authenticate the veracity of the developed model. The results of this research will seek to provide structural engineers with much-needed knowledge about the behavior of steel beam columns and their response to various non-proportional loading conditions under ambient temperature conditions.

Keywords: beam-columns, axial loading, biaxial bending, torsion, ABAQUS, finite difference method

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Authors: R. Dariani, S. Schmidt, R. Kasper

Abstract:

Based on a non-linear single track model which describes the dynamics of vehicle, an optimal path planning strategy is developed. Real time optimization is used to generate reference control values to allow leading the vehicle alongside a calculated lane which is optimal for different objectives such as energy consumption, run time, safety or comfort characteristics. Strict mathematic formulation of the autonomous driving allows taking decision on undefined situation such as lane change or obstacle avoidance. Based on position of the vehicle, lane situation and obstacle position, the optimization problem is reformulated in real-time to avoid the obstacle and any car crash.

Keywords: autonomous driving, obstacle avoidance, optimal control, path planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Rajib Mia, Badam Singh Kushvah

Abstract:

In this present paper, we use the photogravitational version of the restricted three body problem (RTBP) in binary systems. In the photogravitational RTBP, an infinitesimal particle (dust grain) is moving under the gravitational attraction and radiation pressure from the two bigger primaries. The third particle does not affect the motion of two bigger primaries. The zero-velocity curves, zero-velocity surfaces and their projections on the plane are studied. We have used existing analytical method to solve the equations of motion. We have obtained the Lagrangian points in some binary stellar systems. It is found that mass reduction factor affects the Lagrangian points. The linear stability of Lagrangian points is studied and found that these points are unstable. Moreover, trajectories of the infinitesimal particle at the triangular points are studied.

Keywords: binary systems, Lagrangian points, linear stability, photogravitational RTBP, trajectories

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

Abstract:

Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

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Authors: Thien X. Dinh, Peter Witt

Abstract:

A one-dimensional model for the simulation of condensation and solidification of a metallurgical vapor in the mixture of gas during supersonic expansion is presented. In the model, condensation is based on critical nucleation and drop-growth theory. When the temperature falls below the supercooling point, all the formed liquid droplets in the condensation phase are assumed to solidify at an infinite rate. The model was verified with a Computational Fluid Dynamics simulation of magnesium vapor condensation and solidification. The obtained results are in reasonable agreement with CFD data. Therefore, the model is a promising, efficient tool for use in the design process for supersonic nozzles applied in mineral processes since it is faster than the CFD counterpart by an order of magnitude.

Keywords: condensation, metallurgical flow, solidification, supersonic expansion

Procedia PDF Downloads 52