Search results for: two future population means

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

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Authors: Xu Feifei

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The prevalence of COVID-19 currently is the biggest challenge to improving people's quality of life. Its impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is highly uncertain and has not been summarized so far. The aim of the present systematic review was to assess and provide an up-to-date analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the HRQoL of participants who have been infected, have not been infected but isolated, frontline, with different diseases, and the general population. Therefore, an electronic search of the literature in PubMed databases was performed from 2019 to July 2022 (without date restriction). PRISMA guideline methodology was employed, and data regarding the HRQoL were extracted from eligible studies. Articles were included if they met the following inclusion criteria: (a) reports on the data collection of the health state utility values (HSUVs) related to COVID-19 from 2019 to 2021; (b) English language and peer-reviewed journals; and (c) original HSUV data; (d) using EQ-5D tool to quantify the HRQoL. To identify studies that reported the effects on COVID-19, data on the proportion of overall HSUVs of participants who had the outcome were collected and analyzed using a one-group meta-analysis. As a result, thirty-two studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and, therefore, were included in the systematic review. A total of 45295 participants and provided 219 means of HSUVs during COVID-19 were included in this systematic review. The range of utility is from 0.224 to 1. The study included participants from Europe (n=16), North America (n=4), Asia (n=10), South America (n=1), and Africa (n=1). Twelve articles showed that the HRQoL of the participants who have been infected with COVID-19 (range of overall HSUVs from 0.6125 to 0.863). Two studies reported the population of frontline workers (the range of overall HSUVs from 0.82 to 0.93). Seven of the articles researched the participants who had not been infected with COVID-19 but suffered from morbidities during the pandemic (range of overall HSUVs from 0.5 to 0.96). Thirteen studies showed that the HRQoL of the respondents who have not been infected with COVID-19 and without any morbidities (range of overall HSUVs from 0.64 to 0.964). Moreover, eighteen articles reported the outcomes of overall HSUVs during the COVID-19 pandemic in different population groups. The estimate of overall HSUVs of direct COVID-19 experience population (n=1333) was 0.751 (95% CI 0.670 - 0.832, I2 = 98.64%); the estimate of frontline population (n=610) was 0.906 ((95% CI 0.854 – 0.957, I2 = 98.61%); participants with different disease (n=132) were 0.768 (95% CI 0.515 - 1.021, I2= 99.26%); general population without infection history (n=29,892) was 0.825 (95% CI 0.766 - 0.885, I2 =99.69%). Conclusively, taking into account these results, this systematic review might confirm that COVID-19 has a negative impact on the HRQoL of the infected population and illness population. It provides practical value for cost-effectiveness model analysis of health states related to COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, health-related quality of life, meta-analysis, systematic review, utility value

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Authors: Emiru Birhane, Tesfay Gidey, Haftu Abrha, Abrha Brhan, Amanuel Zenebe, Girmay Gebresamuel, Florent Noulèkoun

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Dracaena ombet and Dobera glabra are two of the most rare and endangered tree species in dryland areas. Unfortunately, their sustainability is being compromised by different anthropogenic and natural factors. However, the impacts of ongoing land use and climate change on the population structure and distribution of the species are less explored. This study was carried out in the grazing lands and hillside areas of the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest, northern Ethiopia, to characterize the population structure of the species and predict the impact of climate change on their potential distributions. In each land-use type, abundance, diameter at breast height, and height of the trees were collected using 70 sampling plots distributed over seven transects spaced one km apart. The geographic coordinates of each individual tree were also recorded. The results showed that the species populations were characterized by low abundance and unstable population structure. The latter was evinced by a lack of seedlings and mature trees. The study also revealed that the total abundance and dendrometric traits of the trees were significantly different between the two land uses. The hillside areas had a denser abundance of bigger and taller trees than the grazing lands. Climate change predictions using the MaxEnt model highlighted that future temperature increases coupled with reduced precipitation would lead to significant reductions in the suitable habitats of the species in northern Ethiopia. The species' suitable habitats were predicted to decline by 48–83% for D. ombet and 35–87% for D. glabra. Hence, to sustain the species populations, different strategies should be adopted, namely the introduction of alternative livelihoods (e.g., gathering NTFP) to reduce the overexploitation of the species for subsistence income and the protection of the current habitats that will remain suitable in the future using community-based exclosures. Additionally, the preservation of the species' seeds in gene banks is crucial to ensure their long-term conservation.

Keywords: grazing lands, hillside areas, land-use change, MaxEnt, range limitation, rare and endangered tree species

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Authors: Ramazan Kadiev, Arkadi Ponossov

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Semidiscrete systems contain both continuous and discrete components. This means that the dynamics is mostly continuous, but at certain instants, it is exposed to abrupt influences. Such systems naturally appear in applications, for example, in biological and ecological models as well as in the control theory. Therefore, the study of semidiscrete systems has recently attracted the attention of many specialists. Stochastic effects are an important part of any realistic approach to modeling. For example, stochasticity arises in the population dynamics, demographic and ecological due to a change in time of factors external to the system affecting the survival of the population. In control theory, random coefficients can simulate inaccuracies in measurements. It will be shown in the presentation how to incorporate such effects into semidiscrete systems. Stability analysis is an essential part of modeling real-world problems. In the presentation, it will be explained how sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for linear semidiscrete stochastic equations can be derived using non-Lyapunov technique.

Keywords: abrupt changes, exponential stability, regularization, stochastic noises

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Authors: Sukaesi Marianti

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This study aims to develop the Relational Mobility Scale for the Indonesian population and to investigate its psychometric properties. New items of the scale were created taking into account the Indonesian population which consists of two parallel forms (A and A’). This study uses 30 newly orchestrated items while keeping in mind the characteristics of the targeted population. The scale was administered to 433 public high school students in Malang, Indonesia. Construct validity of its factor structure was demonstrated using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. The result exhibits that he model fits the data, and that the delayed alternate form method shows acceptable result. Results yielded that 21 items of the three-dimensional Relational Mobility Scale is suitable for measuring relational mobility in high school students of Indonesian population.

Keywords: confirmatory factor analysis, delayed alternate form, Indonesian population, relational mobility scale

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Authors: Jana Aleksić, Marijana Petković

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Female population has an increasing role when it comes to purchase. Consequently, the female population has a greater role in modern marketing. Although it is thought that women buy more than men, marketing strategy was not directed specifically towards women. The thing that has changed regarding women’s role in modern marketing is the fact that the female population has a leading position when it comes to decision making in various fields and various sectors, which was not the case in the past. Marketing should be directed towards women but it should be done in the right way. Compared to men, women buy in a different way, and they look for more various advantages in the product itself, than men do. This paper aims to show the importance of the female role in the modern marketing and management and to redirect marketing in some way towards female population through new marketing strategies and management systems. Hypothesis is that women have an important role in marketing, and marketing strategy of modern society could and should be based on and directed towards female population and their tastes when it comes to purchasing. It is necessary and desirable to apply marketing strategy with a special strategy that has an emphasis on women and their purchase or in a word to apply WS- woman strategy. This research was carried out as a random sample research, where were obtained 212 valid surveys whose results serve as a basis for drawing conclusions about the research as well as to verify the formulated hypotheses. The research was carried out during 2011 and 2012. The study has shown a significant role of the female population in the marketing process.

Keywords: marketing, management, female, purchase, strategy

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Authors: Jörg Lenhardt, Wolfram Schiffmann, Jörg Keller

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While the feature sizes of recent Complementary Metal Oxid Semiconductor (CMOS) devices decrease the influence of static power prevails their energy consumption. Thus, power savings that benefit from Dynamic Frequency and Voltage Scaling (DVFS) are diminishing and temporal shutdown of cores or other microchip components become more worthwhile. A consequence of powering off unused parts of a chip is that the relative difference between idle and fully loaded power consumption is increased. That means, future chips and whole server systems gain more power saving potential through power-aware load balancing, whereas in former times this power saving approach had only limited effect, and thus, was not widely adopted. While powering off complete servers was used to save energy, it will be superfluous in many cases when cores can be powered down. An important advantage that comes with that is a largely reduced time to respond to increased computational demand. We include the above developments in a server power model and quantify the advantage. Our conclusion is that strategies from datacenters when to power off server systems might be used in the future on core level, while load balancing mechanisms previously used at core level might be used in the future at server level.

Keywords: power efficiency, static power consumption, dynamic power consumption, CMOS

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Authors: Yash M. Gupta, Kittisak Buddhachat, Surin Peyachoknagul, Somjit Homchan

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The house cricket, Acheta domesticus is one of the commonly found species of field crickets. Although it is very commonly used as food and feed, the genomic information of house cricket is still missing for genetic investigation. DNA sequencing technology has evolved over the decades, and it has also revolutionized the molecular marker development for genetic analysis. In the present study, we have sequenced the whole genome of A. domesticus using illumina platform based HiSeq X Ten sequencing technology for searching simple sequence repeats (SSRs) in DNA to develop polymorphic microsatellite markers for population genetic analysis. A total of 112,157 SSRs with primer pairs were identified, 91 randomly selected SSRs used to check DNA amplification, of which nine primers were polymorphic. These microsatellite markers have shown cross-amplification with other three species of crickets which are Gryllus bimaculatus, Gryllus testaceus and Brachytrupes portentosus. These nine polymorphic microsatellite markers were used to check genetic variation for forty-five individuals of A. domesticus, Phitsanulok population, Thailand. For nine loci, the number of alleles was ranging from 5 to 15. The observed heterozygosity was ranged from 0.4091 to 0.7556. These microsatellite markers will facilitate population genetic analysis for future studies of A. domesticus populations. Moreover, the transferability of these SSR makers would also enable researchers to conduct genetic studies for other closely related species.

Keywords: cross-amplification, microsatellite markers, observed heterozygosity, population genetic, simple sequence repeats

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Authors: Thomas Chong, Irene Victor

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This paper discusses the history and plausible future of assistive technology and what it means for students with disabilities in Singapore, a country known for its high quality of education in the world. Over more than a century, students with disabilities have benefitted from relatively low-tech assistive technology (like eye-glasses, Braille, magnifiers and wheelchairs) to high-tech assistive technology including electronic mobility switches, alternative keyboards, computer-screen enlargers, text-to-speech readers, electronic sign-language dictionaries and signing avatars for individuals with hearing impairments. Driven by legislation, the use of assistive technology in many countries is becoming so ubiquitous that more and more students with disabilities are able to perform as well as if not better than their counterparts. Yet in many other learning environments where assistive technology is not affordable or mandated, the learning gaps can be quite significant. Without stronger legislation, Singapore may still have a long way to go in levelling the playing field for its students with disabilities.

Keywords: assistive technology, students with disabilities, disability laws in Singapore, inclusiveness

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Authors: Martin Mundo-Molina

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In Mexico, there are many small rural communities with serious water supply deficiencies. In Chiapas, Mexico, there are 19,972 poor rural communities, 15,712 of which have fewer than 100 inhabitants. The lack of a constant water supply is most severe in the highlands of Chiapas where the population is made up mainly of indigenous groups. The communities are on mountainous terrain with a widely dispersed population. These characteristics combine to make the provision of public utilities, such as water, electricity and sewerage, difficult with conventional means. The introduction of alternative, low-cost technologies represents means of supplying water such as through fog and rain catchment with zero greenhouse emissions. In this paper is presented the rainwater harvesting system (RWS) constructed in Yalentay, Chiapas Mexico. The RWS is able to store 1.2 M liters of water to provide drinking water to small rural indigenous communities of 500 people in the drought stage. Inside the system of rainwater harvesting there isn't photosynthesis in order to conserve water for long periods. The natural filters of the system of rainwater harvesting guarantee the drinking water for using to the community. The combination of potability and low cost makes rain collection a viable alternative for rural areas, weather permitting. The Mexican Institute of Water Technology and Chiapas University constructed a rainwater harvesting system in Yalentay Chiapas, it consists of four parts: 1. Roof of aluminum, for collecting rainwater, 2. Underground-cistern, divided in two tanks, 3. Filters, to improve the water quality and 4. The system of rainwater harvesting dignified the lives of people in Yalentay, saves energy, prevents the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, conserves natural resources such as water and air.

Keywords: appropriate technologies, climate change, greenhouse gases, rainwater harvesting

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The Public Private Partnership (PPP) contracts are produced taking into account the reason that the configuration, development, operation, and financing of an open undertaking is to be recompensed to a private gathering inside a solitary contractual structure. PPP venture dangers are ordinarily connected with the improvement and development of another resource and in addition its operation for a considerable length of time. Without a doubt, the most genuine outcomes of dangers amid the development period are value and time overwhelms. These occasions are amongst the most extensively utilized situations as a part of worth for cash investigation dangers. The wellsprings of danger change over the life cycle of a PPP venture. In customary acquirement, the general population segment ordinarily needs to cover all value trouble from these dangers. At any rate there is bounty confirmation to recommend that cost pain is a standard in a percentage of the tasks that are conveyed under customary obtainment. This paper means to research the effect of endogenous dangers on expense overwhelm in KSA PPP ventures. The paper displays a brief writing survey on PPP danger evaluating systems, and after that presents an affiliation model between danger occasions and expense invade in KSA. The paper finishes up with considerations for future examination.

Keywords: PPP, risk pricing, impact of risk, Endogenous risks

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Authors: Saúl Rivero, Estefanya Marín, Katherine Bolaño, Elena Urán, Juan Yepes, Andrés Cossio

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Medellín is the Colombian city with the best public transport systems in the country, which is made up of two metro lines, five metrocables, two BRT-type bus lines, and a tram. But despite the above, the Aburrá Valley, the area in which the city is located, has about 3000 km of roads, which for the existing population of 3.2 million inhabitants, gives an indicator of 900 meters of road per 1000 inhabitants, which is lower than the country's average, which is approximately 3900 meters. In addition, given that in Medellín, there is approximately one vehicle for every three inhabitants, the problems of congestion and environmental pollution have worsened over the years. In this sense, due to the limitations of physical space, the low public investment in road infrastructure, it is necessary to opt for mobility alternatives according to the above. Among the options for the city, there is what is known as micromobility. Micromobility is understood to be those small and light means of transport that are used for short distances, that use electrical energy, such as skateboards and bicycles. Taking into account the above, in this work, the current state and future of micromobility in the city of Medellín were analyzed, carrying out a prospective analysis, supported by a PEST analysis, but also of the crossed impact matrices; of influence and dependence; and the technique of the actor's game. The analysis was carried out for two future scenarios: one normal and one optimistic. Result of the analysis, it was determined that micromobility as an alternative social practice to mobility in the city of Medellín has favorable conditions since the local government has adopted strategies such as the Metropolitan Bicycle Master Plan of Valle de Aburrá and the plan " Bicycle paths in the city: more public spaces for life,” where a projection of 400 kilometers of bicycle paths was estimated by the year 2030, as for that same year it is expected that 10% of all trips in the region will be in bike mode. The total trip indicator is an achievable goal, while that of the number of kilometers of bike paths would be close to being met.

Keywords: electric vehicles, micromobilty, public transport, sustainable transport

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Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin

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The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.

Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health

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Authors: Kemal Polat

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In this paper, an attribute weighting method called fuzzy C-means clustering based attribute weighting (FCMAW) for classification of Diabetes disease dataset has been used. The aims of this study are to reduce the variance within attributes of diabetes dataset and to improve the classification accuracy of classifier algorithm transforming from non-linear separable datasets to linearly separable datasets. Pima Indians Diabetes dataset has two classes including normal subjects (500 instances) and diabetes subjects (268 instances). Fuzzy C-means clustering is an improved version of K-means clustering method and is one of most used clustering methods in data mining and machine learning applications. In this study, as the first stage, fuzzy C-means clustering process has been used for finding the centers of attributes in Pima Indians diabetes dataset and then weighted the dataset according to the ratios of the means of attributes to centers of theirs. Secondly, after weighting process, the classifier algorithms including support vector machine (SVM) and k-NN (k- nearest neighbor) classifiers have been used for classifying weighted Pima Indians diabetes dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed attribute weighting method (FCMAW) has obtained very promising results in the classification of Pima Indians diabetes dataset.

Keywords: fuzzy C-means clustering, fuzzy C-means clustering based attribute weighting, Pima Indians diabetes, SVM

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Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

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In today's popularity and progress of information technology, the big data set and its analysis are no longer a major conundrum. Now, we could not only use the relevant big data to analysis and emulate the possible status of urban development in the near future, but also provide more comprehensive and reasonable policy implementation basis for government units or decision-makers via the analysis and emulation results as mentioned above. In this research, we set Taipei City as the research scope, and use the relevant big data variables (e.g., population, facility utilization and related social policy ratings) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) approach to implement in-depth research and discussion for the possible reduction of land use in primary and secondary schools of Taipei City. In addition to enhance the prosperous urban activities for the urban public facility utilization, the final results of this research could help improve the efficiency of urban land use in the future. Furthermore, the assessment model and research framework established in this research also provide a good reference for schools or other public facilities land use and adaptive reuse strategies in the future.

Keywords: adaptive reuse, analytic network process, big data, land use strategy

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Authors: Ceylan Sozer, Ece Ceylan Baba

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The reforms and changes that began with industrialization in cities and continued with globalization in 1980’s, created many changes in urban environments. City centers which are desolated due to industrialization, began to get crowded with globalization and became the heart of technology, commerce and social activities. While the immediate and intense alterations are planned around rigorous visions in developed countries, several urban areas where the processes were underestimated and not taken precaution faced with irrevocable situations. When the effects of the globalization in the cities are examined, it is seen that there are some anticipatory system plans in the cities about the future problems. Several cities such as New York, London and Tokyo have planned to resolve probable future problems in a systematic scheme to decrease possible side effects during globalization. The decisions in urban planning and their applications are the main points in terms of sustainability and livability in such mega-cities. This article examines the effects of globalization on urban planning through 3 mega cities and the applications. When the applications of urban plannings of the three mega-cities are investigated, it is seen that the city plans are generated under light of past experiences and predictions of a certain future. In urban planning, past and present experiences of a city should have been examined and then future projections could be predicted together with current world dynamics by a systematic way. In this study, methods used in urban planning will be discussed and ‘Anticipatory System’ model will be explained and relations with global-urban planning will be discussed. The concept of ‘anticipation’ is a phenomenon that means creating foresights and predictions about the future by combining past, present and future within an action plan. The main distinctive feature that separates anticipatory systems from other systems is the combination of past, present and future and concluding with an act. Urban plans that consist of various parameters and interactions together are identified as ‘live’ and they have systematic integrities. Urban planning with an anticipatory system might be alive and can foresight some ‘side effects’ in design processes. After globalization, cities became more complex and should be designed within an anticipatory system model. These cities can be more livable and can have sustainable urban conditions for today and future.In this study, urban planning of Istanbul city is going to be analyzed with comparisons of New York, Tokyo and London city plans in terms of anticipatory system models. The lack of a system in İstanbul and its side effects will be discussed. When past and present actions in urban planning are approached through an anticipatory system, it can give more accurate and sustainable results in the future.

Keywords: globalization, urban planning, anticipatory system, New York, London, Tokyo, Istanbul

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Authors: Juliana Amaka Ugwu

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Trapping efficiency of methyl eugenol and three locally made food-based lures were evaluated in three locations for trapping of B. dorsalis on mango homestead trees in Ibadan South west Nigeria. The treatments were methyl eugenol, brewery waste, pineapple juice, orange juice, and control (water). The experiment was laid in a Complete Randomized Block Design (CRBD) and replicated three times in each location. Data collected were subjected to analysis of variance and significant means were separated by Turkey’s test. The results showed that B. dorsalis was recorded in all locations of study. Methyl eugenol significantly (P < 0.05) trapped higher population of B. dorsalis in all the study area. The population density of B. dorsalis was highest during the ripening period of mango in all locations. The percentage trapped flies after 7 weeks were 77.85%-82.38% (methyl eugenol), 7.29%-8.64% (pineapple juice), 5.62-7.62% (brewery waste), 4.41%-5.95% (orange juice), and 0.24-0.47% (control). There were no significance differences (p > 0.05) on the population of B. dorsalis trapped in all locations. Similarly, there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) on the population of flies trapped among the food attractants. However, the three food attractants significantly (p < 0.05) trapped higher flies than control. Methyl eugenol trapped only male flies while brewery waste and other food based attractants trapped both male and female flies. The food baits tested were promising attractants for trapping B. dorsalis on mango homestead tress, hence increased dosage could be considered for monitoring and mass trapping as management strategies against fruit fly infestation.

Keywords: attractants, trapping, mango, Bactrocera dorsalis

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Authors: Munu Fritz-Austin Ndam

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Although the Cameroonian system of farming is considered as the first generation, the primary actors here involved have not yet understood the meaning of adding value to the product or produce they produce. The challenge here is for everyone who practices agriculture as an income generating activity in Cameroon to be able to understand the concept of value-added products and to know how to go about it. Recent studies have shown that these farmers who depend on agriculture as their main income generation activity make a great loss out of it because they don’t have the means to either transport their produce to the appropriate market, they don’t the knowledge on how to transform it, or they don’t have a means of conserving the product for a longer duration. It is important to note that after a thorough evaluation of the activity carried out, the final added value product sold is of great benefit not only to the producer but the buyer and the population at large. In my proposed prestation, I will discuss how the transformation activity will have a positive impact on the lives of farmers and the buyers and, most importantly, describe the methodology and procedure which is followed before the tubers (banana, Plantain, potato)is transformed into the finished or semi-finished product.

Keywords: transformation, sustainability, development, consumption

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Authors: Paul Kipchumba

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Kenya is an East African Country lying at the Equator. It had a population of 46 million in 2015 with an annual growth rate of 2.7%, making a population of at least 65 million in 2030. Kenya’s GDP in 2015 was about 63 billion USD with per capita GDP of about 1400 USD. The rural population is 74%, whereas urban population is 26%. Kenya grapples with not only access to energy but also with energy security. There is direct correlation between economic growth, population growth, and energy consumption. Kenya’s energy composition is at least 74.5% from renewable energy with hydro power and geothermal forming the bulk of it; 68% from wood fuel; 22% from petroleum; 9% from electricity; and 1% from coal and other sources. Wood fuel is used by majority of rural and poor urban population. Electricity is mostly used for lighting. As of March 2015 Kenya had installed electricity capacity of 2295 MW, making a per capital electricity consumption of 0.0499 KW. The overall retail cost of electricity in 2015 was 0.009915 USD/ KWh (KES 19.85/ KWh), for installed capacity over 10MW. The actual demand for electricity in 2015 was 3400 MW and the projected demand in 2030 is 18000 MW. Kenya is working on vision 2030 that aims at making it a prosperous middle income economy and targets 23 GW of generated electricity. However, cost and non-cost factors affect generation and consumption of electricity in Kenya. Kenya does not care more about CO2 emissions than on economic growth. Carbon emissions are most likely to be paid by future costs of carbon emissions and penalties imposed on local generating companies by sheer disregard of international law on C02 emissions and climate change. The study methodology was a simulated application of carbon tax on all carbon emitting sources of electricity generation. It should cost only USD 30/tCO2 tax on all emitting sources of electricity generation to have solar as the only source of electricity generation in Kenya. The country has the best evenly distributed global horizontal irradiation. Solar potential after accounting for technology efficiencies such as 14-16% for solar PV and 15-22% for solar thermal is 143.94 GW. Therefore, the paper recommends adoption of solar power for generating all electricity in Kenya in order to attain zero carbon electricity generation in the country.

Keywords: co2 emissions, cost factors, electricity generation, non-cost factors

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Surendra Kumar Patel

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Disability is not just a health problem; it is a complex phenomenon, reflecting the interaction between features of a person’s age and physiology. Population ageing is a major demographic issue for India in the 21st century. Older population of India constituted 8% of total population, while 5.19% has affected by disability of older age group. Objective of the present research paper is to examine the state wise differential in disability among 60+ population and to access the health care of disabled population especially the 60+ disabled persons. The data sources of the present paper are census 2001 and 2011. For analyzing the state wise differentials by disability types and comparative advantage of data, rate, ratio, and percentage have been used. The Standardized Index of Diversity of Disability (SIDD) studies differential and diversity in disability. The results show that there are 5.19% persons have disability among 60+ population and sex differential not very significant, as it is 5.3 % of male and 5.05% in female in India but place of residence shows significant variation from 2001 to 2011 census. There is huge diversity in disability prevalence among 60+ in India, highest in Sikkim followed by Rajasthan, approximately, they comprise 11%, and the lowest found in Tamil Nadu as 2.53%. This huge gap in prevalence percentage shows the health care needs of highly prevailing states.

Keywords: disability, Standardized Index of Diversity of Disability (SIDD), differential and diversity in disability, 60+ population

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Authors: Avijit Datta

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We have presented a phase control scheme in population transfer using chirped laser fields. A chirped pulse can do population transfer from one level to another level via adiabatic rapid passage accessible by one photon dipole transition. We propose to use a pair of phase-locked chirped pulses of the same frequency w(t) instead of a singly chirped-pulse frequency w(t). Simultaneous action of phase controlled interference in addition to rapid adiabatic passages due to chirped pulses lead to phase control over this population transfer dynamics. We have demonstrated the proposed phase control scheme over the population distribution from the initial level X(v=0,j=0) to C(v=2,j=1) level of hydrogen molecule using a pair of phase-locked and similarly chirped laser pulses. We have extended this two-level system to three-level 1+1 ladder system of hydrogen molecule from X level to final J(v=2,j=2) level via C intermediate level using two pairs of laser pulses having frequencies w(t) and w'(t) respectively and obtained laudable control over the population distribution among three levels. We also have presented some results of interference effects of w₁(t) and its third harmonics w₃(t).

Keywords: phase control, population transfer, chirped laser pulses, rapid adiabatic passage, laser-molecule interaction

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Authors: Lee Cahaner, Nissim Leon

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The segregation of populations is one of the main axes in the research of urban geography, which refers to the spatial and functional relationships between settlements. In Israel, this phenomenon has its unique expression in the spatial processes concerning the ultra-orthodox population. This population holds a set of interactions within itself as well as with the non-orthodox surrounding population because of historical and contemporary motivations on its which strength depends on its homogeneousness and separation. Its demographic growth rate and the internal social processes that the ultra-orthodox society undergoes create a new image of the ultra-orthodox concentration and its location in the Israeli space. The goals of the present study have also been defined with the express intention of filling the scholarly vacuum noted above: firstly, to discuss the development of the Israeli ultra-Orthodox sector’s hierarchical and spatial structure as of 2015, in light of the principles and mechanisms that guide it and vis-à-vis the general population’s hierarchical locality system; secondly, to map Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population, with attention to its physical boundaries, its subdivisions (Hassidic, Lithuanian, Sephardic) and the geographical and demographic processes that have characterized it in recent years; and thirdly, to shed light on the interactions between ultra-Orthodox localities via several different parameters, e.g. migration, education, transportation, employment, consumerism and community services. In order to understand the changes in ultra-Orthodox geographic distribution and the social processes that these changes have generated, a number of research activities were conducted during the course of this study− notably, gathering and assembling material from earlier academic studies, newspaper advertisements, state and private archives; in-depth interviews with major figures in the ultra-Orthodox community and others who come into contact with it; tours of the core areas of ultra-Orthodox settlement; and gathering quantitative and qualitative data from the statistical reports of governmental and other bodies. In addition, a multi-participant (2400-respondent) quantitative survey was conducted among residents of the new ultra-Orthodox cities, designed to elucidate the attributes and spatial attitudes of the residents− as a means of tracing and understanding this new settlement pattern within ultra-Orthodox space. A major portion of the quantitative and qualitative material was processed to form a system of maps that visually describe the distribution of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population.

Keywords: migration, new cities, segregation, ultra-orthodox

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Authors: Abdelkhalek Bakkari

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Image segmentation is a critical step in image processing and pattern recognition. In this paper, we proposed a new robust automatic image classification based on a dynamic fuzzy c-means algorithm and mathematical morphology. The proposed segmentation algorithm (DFCM_MM) has been applied to MR perfusion images. The obtained results show the validity and robustness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: segmentation, classification, dynamic, fuzzy c-means, MR image

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Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

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Authors: Smita Sonker

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Various investigators have determined the degree of approximation of conjugate signals (functions) of functions belonging to different classes Lipα, Lip(α,p), Lip(ξ(t),p), W(Lr,ξ(t), (β ≥ 0)) by matrix summability means, lower triangular matrix operator, product means (i.e. (C,1)(E,1), (C,1)(E,q), (E,q)(C,1) (N,p,q)(E,1), and (E,q)(N,pn) of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. In this paper, we shall determine the degree of approximation of 2π-periodic function conjugate functions of f belonging to the function classes Lipα and W(Lr; ξ(t); (β ≥ 0)) by (C1.T) -means of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. On the other hand, we shall review above-mentioned work in the light of Lenski.

Keywords: signals, trigonometric fourier approximation, class W(L^r, \xi(t), conjugate fourier series

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Authors: M. Fette, J. P. Wulfsberg, A. Herrmann, R. H. Ladstaetter

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Present and future lightweight design represents an important key to successful implementation of energy-saving, fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly means of transport in the aerospace and automotive industry. In this context the use of carbon fibre reinforced plastics (CFRP) which are distinguished by their outstanding mechanical properties at relatively low weight, promise significant improvements. Due to the reduction of the total mass, with the resulting lowered fuel or energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the operational phase, commercial aircraft and future vehicles will increasingly be made of CFRP. An auspicious technology for the efficient and economic production of high performance thermoset composites and hybrid structures for future lightweight applications is the combination of carbon fibre sheet moulding compound (SMC), tailored continuous carbon fibre reinforcements and metallic components in a one-shot pressing and curing process. This paper deals with a new hybrid composite technology for aerospace industries, which was developed with the help of a universal innovation and development system. This system supports the management of idea generation, the methodical development of innovative technologies and the achievement of the industrial readiness of these technologies.

Keywords: development system, hybrid composite, innovation system, prepreg, sheet moulding compound

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Authors: Massy Guillaume

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Introduction: The implementation of creativity in educational policies or curricula raises several issues, including the evaluation of creativity and the means to do so. This doctoral research focuses on the appropriation and transposition of creativity assessment models by future teachers. Our objective is to identify the elements of the models that are most transferable to practice in order to improve their implementation in the students' curriculum while seeking to create a new model for assessing creativity in the school environment. Methods: In order to meet our objective, this preliminary quantitative exploratory study by questionnaire was conducted at two points in the participants' training: at the beginning of the training module and throughout the practical work. The population is composed of 40 people of diverse origins with an average age of 26 (s:8,623) years. In order to be as close as possible to our research objective and to test our questionnaires, we set up a pre-test phase during the spring semester of 2022. Results: The results presented focus on aspects of the OECD Creative Competencies Assessment Model. Overall, 72% of participants support the model's focus on skill levels as appropriate for the school context. More specifically, the data indicate that the separation of production and process in the rubric facilitates observation by the assessor. From the point of view of transposing the grid into teaching practice, the participants emphasised that production is easier to plan and observe in students than in the process. This difference is reinforced by a lack of knowledge about certain concepts such as innovation or risktaking in schools. Finally, the qualitative results indicate that the addition of multiple levels of competencies to the OECD rubric would allow for better implementation in the classroom. Conclusion: The identification by the students of the elements allowing the evaluation of creativity in the school environment generates an innovative approach to the training contents. These first data, from the test phase of our research, demonstrate the difficulty that exists between the implementation of an evaluation model in a training program and its potential transposition by future teachers.

Keywords: creativity, evaluation, schooling, training

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Authors: Donald Wright

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The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

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Authors: Abdelsalam Gomaa, Mahjabeen Ramzan, Tooba Ali Akbar, Huma Nadeem

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The use of tobacco and the health risks linked to it are well known in this day and age due to the presence of easily available information through the internet. The media is a powerful platform that is used by many anti-smoking awareness campaigns to reach their target audience; yet, it has been found that adolescents are taking up smoking every passing day. Half of this smoking population of youngsters resides in Asia alone, which includes Qatar, the focus country of this study. As smoking happens to be one of the largest avoidable causes of serious diseases like cancers and heart problems, children are taking up smoking at an alarming rate everywhere including Qatar. Importance of the health of the citizens of Qatar is one of the pillars of the Qatar vision 2030, which is to ensure a healthy population, both physically and mentally. Since the youth makes up a significant percentage of the population and in order to achieve the health objectives of the Qatar vision 2030, it is essential to ensure the health and well-being of this part of the population of the country as they are the future of Qatar. Children, especially boys who tend to be more aggressive by nature, are highly likely to develop behavioral and health issues due to smoking at an early age. Research conducted around the world has also emphasized on this association between the smokers developing a bad behaviour as well as poor social communication skills. However, due to lack of research into this association, very little is known about the extent to which smoking impacts the children’s academics, health and behaviour. Moreover, a study of this nature has not yet been conducted in Qatar previously as most of the studies focus on adult smokers and ways to minimize the number of smoking habits in universities and workplaces. This study solely focuses on identifying a relationship between smoking and its impacts on the adolescents by conducting a research on different schools across Qatar.

Keywords: adolescents, modelling techniques, Qatar, smoking

Procedia PDF Downloads 239