Search results for: location based alarm
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 29015

Search results for: location based alarm

27665 Political Economy in Climate Change Adaptation Efforts: Exploring Enclosure, Exclusion, Encroachment, and Entrenchment from the Case of Bangladesh

Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

Abstract:

Bangladesh contributes little to global climate change, yet it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Based on semi-structured in-depth interviews and literature review, focusing public spending distribution process, this paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy- enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) efforts of Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF). Enclosure refers to when CCA projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when CCA projects limit affected people's access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of CCA projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when CCA projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In the case of Bangladesh, climate change policies implemented under the country’s National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategic Action Plan (BCCSAP) have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of CCA exist at both the national and local scales. CCA related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, CCA related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of BCCTF need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, climate change adaptation, political economy, public fund distribution

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27664 Parallel Vector Processing Using Multi Level Orbital DATA

Authors: Nagi Mekhiel

Abstract:

Many applications use vector operations by applying single instruction to multiple data that map to different locations in conventional memory. Transferring data from memory is limited by access latency and bandwidth affecting the performance gain of vector processing. We present a memory system that makes all of its content available to processors in time so that processors need not to access the memory, we force each location to be available to all processors at a specific time. The data move in different orbits to become available to other processors in higher orbits at different time. We use this memory to apply parallel vector operations to data streams at first orbit level. Data processed in the first level move to upper orbit one data element at a time, allowing a processor in that orbit to apply another vector operation to deal with serial code limitations inherited in all parallel applications and interleaved it with lower level vector operations.

Keywords: Memory Organization, Parallel Processors, Serial Code, Vector Processing

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27663 Predicting OpenStreetMap Coverage by Means of Remote Sensing: The Case of Haiti

Authors: Ran Goldblatt, Nicholas Jones, Jennifer Mannix, Brad Bottoms

Abstract:

Accurate, complete, and up-to-date geospatial information is the foundation of successful disaster management. When the 2010 Haiti Earthquake struck, accurate and timely information on the distribution of critical infrastructure was essential for the disaster response community for effective search and rescue operations. Existing geospatial datasets such as Google Maps did not have comprehensive coverage of these features. In the days following the earthquake, many organizations released high-resolution satellite imagery, catalyzing a worldwide effort to map Haiti and support the recovery operations. Of these organizations, OpenStreetMap (OSM), a collaborative project to create a free editable map of the world, used the imagery to support volunteers to digitize roads, buildings, and other features, creating the most detailed map of Haiti in existence in just a few weeks. However, large portions of the island are still not fully covered by OSM. There is an increasing need for a tool to automatically identify which areas in Haiti, as well as in other countries vulnerable to disasters, that are not fully mapped. The objective of this project is to leverage different types of remote sensing measurements, together with machine learning approaches, in order to identify geographical areas where OSM coverage of building footprints is incomplete. Several remote sensing measures and derived products were assessed as potential predictors of OSM building footprints coverage, including: intensity of light emitted at night (based on VIIRS measurements), spectral indices derived from Sentinel-2 satellite (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), urban index (UI)), surface texture (based on Sentinel-1 SAR measurements)), elevation and slope. Additional remote sensing derived products, such as Hansen Global Forest Change, DLR`s Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and World Settlement Footprint (WSF), were also evaluated as predictors, as well as OSM street and road network (including junctions). Using a supervised classification with a random forest classifier resulted in the prediction of 89% of the variation of OSM building footprint area in a given cell. These predictions allowed for the identification of cells that are predicted to be covered but are actually not mapped yet. With these results, this methodology could be adapted to any location to assist with preparing for future disastrous events and assure that essential geospatial information is available to support the response and recovery efforts during and following major disasters.

Keywords: disaster management, Haiti, machine learning, OpenStreetMap, remote sensing

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27662 A Real-Time Bayesian Decision-Support System for Predicting Suspect Vehicle’s Intended Target Using a Sparse Camera Network

Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

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27661 Mechanical Properties of CNT Reinforced Composite Using Berkovich Nanoindentation Analysis

Authors: Khondaker Sakil Ahmed, Ang Kok Keng, Shah Md Muniruzzaman

Abstract:

Spherical and Berkovich indentation tests are carried out numerically using finite element method for uniformly dispersed Carbon Nanotube (CNT) in the polymer matrix in which perfectly bonded CNT/matrix interface is considered. The Large strain elasto-plastic analysis is performed to investigate the actual scenario of nanoindentation test. This study investigates how the addition of CNT in polymer matrix influences the mechanical properties like hardness, elastic modulus of the nanocomposite. Since the wall thickness to radius ratio (t/r) is significantly small for SWCNT there is a huge possibility of lateral buckling which is a function of the location of indentation tip as well as the mechanical properties of matrix. Separate finite element models are constructed to compare the result with Berkovich indentation. This study also investigates the buckling behavior of different nanotube in a different polymer matrix.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, elasto-plastic, finite element model, nano-indentation

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27660 A Qualitative Study into the Success and Challenges in Embedding Evidence-Based Research Methods in Operational Policing Interventions

Authors: Ahmed Kadry, Gwyn Dodd

Abstract:

There has been a growing call globally for police forces to embed evidence-based policing research methods into police interventions in order to better understand and evaluate their impact. This research study highlights the success and challenges that police forces may encounter when trying to embed evidence-based research methods within their organisation. 10 in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with police officers and staff at Greater Manchester Police (GMP) who were tasked with integrating evidence-based research methods into their operational interventions. The findings of the study indicate that with adequate resources and individual expertise, evidence-based research methods can be applied to operational work, including the testing of initiatives with strict controls in order to fully evaluate the impact of an intervention. However, the findings also indicate that this may only be possible where an operational intervention is heavily resourced with police officers and staff who have a strong understanding of evidence-based policing research methods, attained for example through their own graduate studies. In addition, the findings reveal that ample planning time was needed to trial operational interventions that would require strict parameters for what would be tested and how it would be evaluated. In contrast, interviewees underscored that operational interventions with the need for a speedy implementation were less likely to have evidence-based research methods applied. The study contributes to the wider literature on evidence-based policing by providing considerations for police forces globally wishing to apply evidence-based research methods to more of their operational work in order to understand their impact. The study also provides considerations for academics who work closely with police forces in assisting them to embed evidence-based policing. This includes how academics can provide their expertise to police decision makers wanting to underpin their work through evidence-based research methods, such as providing guidance on how to evaluate the impact of their work with varying research methods that they may otherwise be unaware of.  

Keywords: evidence based policing, evidence-based practice, operational policing, organisational change

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27659 Development of Value Based Planning Methodology Incorporating Risk Assessment for Power Distribution Network

Authors: Asnawi Mohd Busrah, Au Mau Teng, Tan Chin Hooi, Lau Chee Chong

Abstract:

This paper describes value based planning (VBP) methodology incorporating risk assessment as an enhanced and more practical approach to evaluate distribution network projects in Peninsular Malaysia. Assessment indicators associated with economics, performance and risks are formulated to evaluate distribution projects to quantify their benefits against investment. The developed methodology is implemented in a web-based software customized to capture investment and network data, compute assessment indicators and rank the proposed projects according to their benefits. Value based planning approach addresses economic factors in the power distribution planning assessment, so as to minimize cost solution to the power utility while at the same time provide maximum benefits to customers.

Keywords: value based planning, distribution network, value of loss load (VoLL), energy not served (ENS)

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27658 Testing Depression in Awareness Space: A Proposal to Evaluate Whether a Psychotherapeutic Method Based on Spatial Cognition and Imagination Therapy Cures Moderate Depression

Authors: Lucas Derks, Christine Beenhakker, Michiel Brandt, Gert Arts, Ruud van Langeveld

Abstract:

Background: The method Depression in Awareness Space (DAS) is a psychotherapeutic intervention technique based on the principles of spatial cognition and imagination therapy with spatial components. The basic assumptions are: mental space is the primary organizing principle in the mind, and all psychological issues can be treated by first locating and by next relocating the conceptualizations involved. The most clinical experience was gathered over the last 20 years in the area of social issues (with the social panorama model). The latter work led to the conclusion that a mental object (image) gains emotional impact when it is placed more central, closer and higher in the visual field – and vice versa. Changing the locations of mental objects in space thus alters the (socio-) emotional meaning of the relationships. The experience of depression seems always associated with darkness. Psychologists tend to see the link between depression and darkness as a metaphor. However, clinical practice hints to the existence of more literal forms of darkness. Aims: The aim of the method Depression in Awareness Space is to reduce the distress of clients with depression in the clinical counseling practice, as a reliable alternative method of psychological therapy for the treatment of depression. The method Depression in Awareness Space aims at making dark areas smaller, lighter and more transparent in order to identify the problem or the cause of the depression which lies behind the darkness. It was hypothesized that the darkness is a subjective side-effect of the neurological process of repression. After reducing the dark clouds the real problem behind the depression becomes more visible, allowing the client to work on it and in that way reduce their feelings of depression. This makes repression of the issue obsolete. Results: Clients could easily get into their 'sadness' when asked to do so and finding the location of the dark zones proved pretty easy as well. In a recent pilot study with five participants with mild depressive symptoms (measured on two different scales and tested against an untreated control group with similar symptoms), the first results were also very promising. If the mental spatial approach to depression can be proven to be really effective, this would be very good news. The Society of Mental Space Psychology is now looking for sponsoring of an up scaled experiment. Conclusions: For spatial cognition and the research into spatial psychological phenomena, the discovery of dark areas can be a step forward. Beside out of pure scientific interest, it is great to know that this discovery has a clinical implication: when darkness can be connected to depression. Also, darkness seems to be more than metaphorical expression. Progress can be monitored over measurement tools that quantify the level of depressive symptoms and by reviewing the areas of darkness.

Keywords: depression, spatial cognition, spatial imagery, social panorama

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27657 From Text to Data: Sentiment Analysis of Presidential Election Political Forums

Authors: Sergio V Davalos, Alison L. Watkins

Abstract:

User generated content (UGC) such as website post has data associated with it: time of the post, gender, location, type of device, and number of words. The text entered in user generated content (UGC) can provide a valuable dimension for analysis. In this research, each user post is treated as a collection of terms (words). In addition to the number of words per post, the frequency of each term is determined by post and by the sum of occurrences in all posts. This research focuses on one specific aspect of UGC: sentiment. Sentiment analysis (SA) was applied to the content (user posts) of two sets of political forums related to the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016. Sentiment analysis results in deriving data from the text. This enables the subsequent application of data analytic methods. The SASA (SAIL/SAI Sentiment Analyzer) model was used for sentiment analysis. The application of SASA resulted with a sentiment score for each post. Based on the sentiment scores for the posts there are significant differences between the content and sentiment of the two sets for the 2012 and 2016 presidential election forums. In the 2012 forums, 38% of the forums started with positive sentiment and 16% with negative sentiment. In the 2016 forums, 29% started with positive sentiment and 15% with negative sentiment. There also were changes in sentiment over time. For both elections as the election got closer, the cumulative sentiment score became negative. The candidate who won each election was in the more posts than the losing candidates. In the case of Trump, there were more negative posts than Clinton’s highest number of posts which were positive. KNIME topic modeling was used to derive topics from the posts. There were also changes in topics and keyword emphasis over time. Initially, the political parties were the most referenced and as the election got closer the emphasis changed to the candidates. The performance of the SASA method proved to predict sentiment better than four other methods in Sentibench. The research resulted in deriving sentiment data from text. In combination with other data, the sentiment data provided insight and discovery about user sentiment in the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, text mining, user generated content, US presidential elections

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27656 Fine-Grained Sentiment Analysis: Recent Progress

Authors: Jie Liu, Xudong Luo, Pingping Lin, Yifan Fan

Abstract:

Facebook, Twitter, Weibo, and other social media and significant e-commerce sites generate a massive amount of online texts, which can be used to analyse people’s opinions or sentiments for better decision-making. So, sentiment analysis, especially fine-grained sentiment analysis, is a very active research topic. In this paper, we survey various methods for fine-grained sentiment analysis, including traditional sentiment lexicon-based methods, machine learning-based methods, and deep learning-based methods in aspect/target/attribute-based sentiment analysis tasks. Besides, we discuss their advantages and problems worthy of careful studies in the future.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, fine-grained, machine learning, deep learning

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27655 A Human Activity Recognition System Based on Sensory Data Related to Object Usage

Authors: M. Abdullah, Al-Wadud

Abstract:

Sensor-based activity recognition systems usually accounts which sensors have been activated to perform an activity. The system then combines the conditional probabilities of those sensors to represent different activities and takes the decision based on that. However, the information about the sensors which are not activated may also be of great help in deciding which activity has been performed. This paper proposes an approach where the sensory data related to both usage and non-usage of objects are utilized to make the classification of activities. Experimental results also show the promising performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Naïve Bayesian, based classification, activity recognition, sensor data, object-usage model

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27654 Mental Health Clinicians’ Perceptions of Nature-Based Interventions Within Community Mental Health Services: Evidence from Australia

Authors: Rachel Tambyah, Katarzyna Olcoń, Julaine Allan, Pete Destry, Thomas Astell-Burt

Abstract:

The rising social and financial burden of mental illness indicates an urgent need to explore interventions that can be used as well as or instead of traditional treatments. Although there is growing evidence of the positive mental health outcomes of spending time in nature, the implementation of nature-based interventions (NBIs) within mental health services remains minimal. Based on interviews with mental health clinicians in Australia, this study demonstrated that clinicians supported the use of NBIs and would promote them to their clients.

Keywords: nature, nature-based interventions, mental health, mental health services, mental health clinicians

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27653 Localization of Near Field Radio Controlled Unintended Emitting Sources

Authors: Nurbanu Guzey, S. Jagannathan

Abstract:

Locating radio controlled (RC) devices using their unintended emissions has a great interest considering security concerns. Weak nature of these emissions requires near field localization approach since it is hard to detect these signals in far field region of array. Instead of only angle estimation, near field localization also requires range estimation of the source which makes this method more complicated than far field models. Challenges of locating such devices in a near field region and real time environment are analyzed in this paper. An ESPRIT like near field localization scheme is utilized for both angle and range estimation. 1-D search with symmetric subarrays is provided. Two 7 element uniform linear antenna arrays (ULA) are employed for locating RC source. Experiment results of location estimation for one unintended emitting walkie-talkie for different positions are given.

Keywords: localization, angle of arrival (AoA), range estimation, array signal processing, ESPRIT, Uniform Linear Array (ULA)

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27652 Wind Fragility for Honeycomb Roof Cladding Panels Using Screw Pull-Out Capacity

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

The failure of roof cladding mostly occurs due to the failing of the connection between claddings and purlins, which is the pull-out of the screw connecting the two parts when the pull-out load, i.e. typhoon, is higher than the resistance of the connection screw. As typhoon disasters in Korea are constantly on the rise, probability risk assessment (PRA) has become a vital tool to evaluate the performance of civil structures. In this study, we attempted to determine the fragility of roof cladding with the screw connection. Experimental study was performed to evaluate the pull-out resistance of screw joints between honeycomb panels and back frames. Subsequently, by means of Monte Carlo Simulation method, probability of failure for these types of roof cladding was determined. The results that the failure of roof cladding was depends on their location on the roof, for example, the edge most panel has the highest probability of failure.

Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, roof cladding, screw pull-out strength, wind fragility

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27651 Experimental and Computational Investigations of Baffle Position Effects on ‎the Performance of Oil and Water Separator Tanks

Authors: Haitham A. Hussein, Rozi Abdullah‏‎, Md Azlin Md Said ‎

Abstract:

Gravity separator tanks are used to separate oil from water in treatment units. Achieving the best flow ‎uniformity in a separator tank will improve the maximum removal efficiency of oil globules from water. ‎In this study, the effect on hydraulic performance of different baffle structure positions inside a tank ‎was investigated. Experimental data and 2D computation fluid dynamics were used for analysis. In the ‎numerical model, two-phase flow (drift flux model) was used to validate one-phase flow. For ‎laboratory measurements, the velocity fields were measured using an acoustic Doppler velocimeter. The ‎measurements were compared with the result of the computational model. The results of the ‎experimental and computational simulations indicate that the best location of a baffle structure is ‎achieved when the standard deviation of the velocity profile and the volume of the circulation zone ‎inside the tank are minimized.‎

Keywords: gravity separator tanks, CFD, baffle position, two phase flow, ADV, oil droplet

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27650 Comparison Analysis of Fuzzy Logic Controler Based PV-Pumped Hydro and PV-Battery Storage Systems

Authors: Seada Hussen, Frie Ayalew

Abstract:

Integrating different energy resources, like solar PV and hydro, is used to ensure reliable power to rural communities like Hara village in Ethiopia. Hybrid power system offers power supply for rural villages by providing an alternative supply for the intermittent nature of renewable energy resources. The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources is a challenge to electrifying rural communities in a sustainable manner with solar resources. Major rural villages in Ethiopia are suffering from a lack of electrification, that cause our people to suffer deforestation, travel for long distance to fetch water, and lack good services like clinic and school sufficiently. The main objective of this project is to provide a balanced, stable, reliable supply for Hara village, Ethiopia using solar power with a pumped hydro energy storage system. The design of this project starts by collecting data from villages and taking solar irradiance data from NASA. In addition to this, geographical arrangement and location are also taken into consideration. After collecting this, all data analysis and cost estimation or optimal sizing of the system and comparison of solar with pumped hydro and solar with battery storage system is done using Homer Software. And since solar power only works in the daytime and pumped hydro works at night time and also at night and morning, both load will share to cover the load demand; this need controller designed to control multiple switch and scheduling in this project fuzzy logic controller is used to control this scenario. The result of the simulation shows that solar with pumped hydro energy storage system achieves good results than with a battery storage system since the comparison is done considering storage reliability, cost, storage capacity, life span, and efficiency.

Keywords: pumped hydro storage, solar energy, solar PV, battery energy storage, fuzzy logic controller

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27649 Examining the Influence of Firm Internal Level Factors on Performance Variations among Micro and Small Enterprises: Evidence from Tanzanian Agri-Food Processing Firms

Authors: Pulkeria Pascoe, Hawa P. Tundui, Marcia Dutra de Barcellos, Hans de Steur, Xavier Gellynck

Abstract:

A majority of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) experience low or no growth. Understanding their performance remains unfinished and disjointed as there is no consensus on the factors influencing it, especially in developing countries. Using a Resource-Based View (RBV) as the theoretical background, this cross-sectional study employed four regression models to examine the influence of firm-level factors (firm-specific characteristics, firm resources, manager socio-demographic characteristics, and selected management practices) on the overall performance variations among 442 Tanzanian micro and small agri-food processing firms. Study results confirmed the RBV argument that intangible resources make a larger contribution to overall performance variations among firms than that tangible resources. Firms' tangible and intangible resources explained 34.5% of overall performance variations (intangible resources explained the overall performance variability by 19.4% compared to tangible resources, which accounted for 15.1%), ranking first in explaining the overall performance variance. Firm-specific characteristics ranked second by influencing variations in overall performance by 29.0%. Selected management practices ranked third (6.3%), while the manager's socio-demographic factors were last on the list, as they influenced the overall performance variability among firms by only 5.1%. The study also found that firms that focus on proper utilization of tangible resources (financial and physical), set targets, and undertake better working capital management practices performed higher than their counterparts (low and average performers). Furthermore, accumulation and proper utilization of intangible resources (relational, organizational, and reputational), undertaking performance monitoring practices, age of the manager, and the choice of the firm location and activity were the dominant significant factors influencing the variations among average and high performers, relative to low performers. The entrepreneurial background was a significant factor influencing variations in average and low-performing firms, indicating that entrepreneurial skills are crucial to achieving average levels of performance. Firm age, size, legal status, source of start-up capital, gender, education level, and total business experience of the manager were not statistically significant variables influencing the overall performance variations among the agri-food processors under the study. The study has identified both significant and non-significant factors influencing performance variations among low, average, and high-performing micro and small agri-food processing firms in Tanzania. Therefore, results from this study will help managers, policymakers and researchers to identify areas where more attention should be placed in order to improve overall performance of MSEs in agri-food industry.

Keywords: firm-level factors, micro and small enterprises, performance, regression analysis, resource-based-view

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27648 Enhancing Sell-In and Sell-Out Forecasting Using Ensemble Machine Learning Method

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

Abstract:

Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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27647 Inverter IGBT Open–Circuit Fault Detection Using Park's Vectors Enhanced by Polar Coordinates

Authors: Bendiabdellah Azzeddine, Cherif Bilal Djamal Eddine

Abstract:

The three-phase power converter voltage structure is widely used in many power applications but its failure can lead to partial or total loss of control of the phase currents and can cause serious system malfunctions or even a complete system shutdown. To ensure continuity of service in all circumstances, effective and rapid techniques of detection and location of inverter fault is to be implemented. The present paper is dedicated to open-circuit fault detection in a three-phase two-level inverter fed induction motor. For detection purpose, the proposed contribution addresses the Park’s current vectors associated to a polar coordinates calculation tool to compute the exact value of the fault angle corresponding directly to the faulty IGBT switch. The merit of the proposed contribution is illustrated by experimental results.

Keywords: diagnosis, detection, Park’s vectors, polar coordinates, open-circuit fault, inverter, IGBT switch

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27646 A Taxonomy Proposal on Criterion Structure for Evaluating Freight Village Concepts in Early-Stage Design Projects

Authors: Rıza Gürhan Korkut, Metin Çelik, Süleyman Özkaynak

Abstract:

The early-stage design and development projects for the freight village initiatives require a comprehensive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data. Considering the literature review on structural and operational management requirements, this study proposed an original taxonomy on criterion structure to assess freight village conceptualization. The potential challenges and uncertainties of the developed taxonomy are extended. Besides requirement analysis, this study is also expected to contribute to forthcoming research on benchmarking of freight villages in different regions. The methodology used in this research is a systematic review on several articles as per their modelling approaches, sustainability, entities and decisions made together with the uncertainties and features of their models taken into consideration. The major findings of the study that are the categories for assessing the projects attributes on their environmental, socio-economical, accessibility and location aspects.

Keywords: logistics centers, freight village, operational management, taxonomy

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27645 Generalized Additive Model Approach for the Chilean Hake Population in a Bio-Economic Context

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

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27644 Bayesian Meta-Analysis to Account for Heterogeneity in Studies Relating Life Events to Disease

Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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27643 Application of Combined Cluster and Discriminant Analysis to Make the Operation of Monitoring Networks More Economical

Authors: Norbert Magyar, Jozsef Kovacs, Peter Tanos, Balazs Trasy, Tamas Garamhegyi, Istvan Gabor Hatvani

Abstract:

Water is one of the most important common resources, and as a result of urbanization, agriculture, and industry it is becoming more and more exposed to potential pollutants. The prevention of the deterioration of water quality is a crucial role for environmental scientist. To achieve this aim, the operation of monitoring networks is necessary. In general, these networks have to meet many important requirements, such as representativeness and cost efficiency. However, existing monitoring networks often include sampling sites which are unnecessary. With the elimination of these sites the monitoring network can be optimized, and it can operate more economically. The aim of this study is to illustrate the applicability of the CCDA (Combined Cluster and Discriminant Analysis) to the field of water quality monitoring and optimize the monitoring networks of a river (the Danube), a wetland-lake system (Kis-Balaton & Lake Balaton), and two surface-subsurface water systems on the watershed of Lake Neusiedl/Lake Fertő and on the Szigetköz area over a period of approximately two decades. CCDA combines two multivariate data analysis methods: hierarchical cluster analysis and linear discriminant analysis. Its goal is to determine homogeneous groups of observations, in our case sampling sites, by comparing the goodness of preconceived classifications obtained from hierarchical cluster analysis with random classifications. The main idea behind CCDA is that if the ratio of correctly classified cases for a grouping is higher than at least 95% of the ratios for the random classifications, then at the level of significance (α=0.05) the given sampling sites don’t form a homogeneous group. Due to the fact that the sampling on the Lake Neusiedl/Lake Fertő was conducted at the same time at all sampling sites, it was possible to visualize the differences between the sampling sites belonging to the same or different groups on scatterplots. Based on the results, the monitoring network of the Danube yields redundant information over certain sections, so that of 12 sampling sites, 3 could be eliminated without loss of information. In the case of the wetland (Kis-Balaton) one pair of sampling sites out of 12, and in the case of Lake Balaton, 5 out of 10 could be discarded. For the groundwater system of the catchment area of Lake Neusiedl/Lake Fertő all 50 monitoring wells are necessary, there is no redundant information in the system. The number of the sampling sites on the Lake Neusiedl/Lake Fertő can decrease to approximately the half of the original number of the sites. Furthermore, neighbouring sampling sites were compared pairwise using CCDA and the results were plotted on diagrams or isoline maps showing the location of the greatest differences. These results can help researchers decide where to place new sampling sites. The application of CCDA proved to be a useful tool in the optimization of the monitoring networks regarding different types of water bodies. Based on the results obtained, the monitoring networks can be operated more economically.

Keywords: combined cluster and discriminant analysis, cost efficiency, monitoring network optimization, water quality

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27642 Statistical Modeling for Permeabilization of a Novel Yeast Isolate for β-Galactosidase Activity Using Organic Solvents

Authors: Shweta Kumari, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manab B. Bera

Abstract:

The hydrolysis of lactose using β-galactosidase is one of the most promising biotechnological applications, which has wide range of potential applications in food processing industries. However, due to intracellular location of the yeast enzyme, and expensive extraction methods, the industrial applications of enzymatic hydrolysis processes are being hampered. The use of permeabilization technique can help to overcome the problems associated with enzyme extraction and purification of yeast cells and to develop the economically viable process for the utilization of whole cell biocatalysts in food industries. In the present investigation, standardization of permeabilization process of novel yeast isolate was carried out using a statistical model approach known as Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to achieve maximal b-galactosidase activity. The optimum operating conditions for permeabilization process for optimal β-galactosidase activity obtained by RSM were 1:1 ratio of toluene (25%, v/v) and ethanol (50%, v/v), 25.0 oC temperature and treatment time of 12 min, which displayed enzyme activity of 1.71 IU /mg DW.

Keywords: β-galactosidase, optimization, permeabilization, response surface methodology, yeast

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27641 Bio-Based Processes for Circular Economy in the Textile Industry

Authors: Nazanin Forouz

Abstract:

The textile industry faces increasing criticism due to its resource-intensive nature and the negative environmental and societal impacts associated with the manufacturing, use, and disposal of clothes. To address these concerns, there is a growing desire to transition towards a circular economy for textiles, implementing recycling concepts and technologies to protect resources, the environment, and people. While existing recycling processes have focused on chemical and mechanical reuse of textile fibers, bio-based processes have received limited attention beyond end-of-life composting. However, bio-based technologies hold great promise for circularizing the textile life cycle and reducing environmental impacts.

Keywords: textile industry, circular economy, bio-based processes, recycling, environmental impacts

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27640 Unit Root Tests Based On the Robust Estimator

Authors: Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

Abstract:

The unit root tests based on the robust estimator for the first-order autoregressive process are proposed and compared with the unit root tests based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. The percentiles of the null distributions of the unit root test are also reported. The empirical probabilities of Type I error and powers of the unit root tests are estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results show that all unit root tests can control the probability of Type I error for all situations. The empirical power of the unit root tests based on the robust estimator are higher than the unit root tests based on the OLS estimator.

Keywords: autoregressive, ordinary least squares, type i error, power of the test, Monte Carlo simulation

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27639 Fijian Women’s Role in Disaster Risk Management: Climate Change

Authors: Priyatma Singh, Manpreet Kaur

Abstract:

Climate change is progressively being identified as a global crisis and this has immediate repercussions for Fiji Islands due to its geographical location being prone to natural disasters. In the Pacific, it is common to find significant differences between men and women, in terms of their roles and responsibilities. In the pursuit of prudent preparedness before disasters, Fijian women’s engagement is constrained due to socially constructed roles and expectation of women here in Fiji. This vulnerability is aggravated by viewing women as victims, rather than as key people who have vital information of their society, economy, and environment, as well as useful skills, which, when recognized and used, can be effective in disaster risk reduction. The focus of this study on disaster management is to outline ways in which Fijian women can be actively engaged in disaster risk management, articulating in decision-making, negating the perceived ideology of women’s constricted roles in Fiji and unveiling social constraints that limit women’s access to practical disaster management strategic plan. This paper outlines the importance of gender mainstreaming in disaster risk reduction and the ways of mainstreaming gender based on a literature review. It analyses theoretical study of academic literature as well as papers and reports produced by various national and international institutions and explores ways to better inform and engage women for climate change per ser disaster management in Fiji. The empowerment of women is believed to be a critical element in constructing disaster resilience as women are often considered to be the designers of community resilience at the local level. Gender mainstreaming as a way of bringing a gender perspective into climate related disasters can be applied to distinguish the varying needs and capacities of women, and integrate them into climate change adaptation strategies. This study will advocate women articulation in disaster risk management, thus giving equal standing to females in Fiji and also identify the gaps and inform national and local Disaster Risk Management authorities to implement processes that enhance gender equality and women’s empowerment towards a more equitable and effective disaster practice.

Keywords: disaster risk management, climate change, gender mainstreaming, women empowerment

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27638 PDDA: Priority-Based, Dynamic Data Aggregation Approach for Sensor-Based Big Data Framework

Authors: Lutful Karim, Mohammed S. Al-kahtani

Abstract:

Sensors are being used in various applications such as agriculture, health monitoring, air and water pollution monitoring, traffic monitoring and control and hence, play the vital role in the growth of big data. However, sensors collect redundant data. Thus, aggregating and filtering sensors data are significantly important to design an efficient big data framework. Current researches do not focus on aggregating and filtering data at multiple layers of sensor-based big data framework. Thus, this paper introduces (i) three layers data aggregation and framework for big data and (ii) a priority-based, dynamic data aggregation scheme (PDDA) for the lowest layer at sensors. Simulation results show that the PDDA outperforms existing tree and cluster-based data aggregation scheme in terms of overall network energy consumptions and end-to-end data transmission delay.

Keywords: big data, clustering, tree topology, data aggregation, sensor networks

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27637 Optimal Placement and Sizing of Distributed Generation in Microgrid for Power Loss Reduction and Voltage Profile Improvement

Authors: Ferinar Moaidi, Mahdi Moaidi

Abstract:

Environmental issues and the ever-increasing in demand of electrical energy make it necessary to have distributed generation (DG) resources in the power system. In this research, in order to realize the goals of reducing losses and improving the voltage profile in a microgrid, the allocation and sizing of DGs have been used. The proposed Genetic Algorithm (GA) is described from the array of artificial intelligence methods for solving the problem. The algorithm is implemented on the IEEE 33 buses network. This study is presented in two scenarios, primarily to illustrate the effect of location and determination of DGs has been done to reduce losses and improve the voltage profile. On the other hand, decisions made with the one-level assumptions of load are not universally accepted for all levels of load. Therefore, in this study, load modelling is performed and the results are presented for multi-levels load state.

Keywords: distributed generation, genetic algorithm, microgrid, load modelling, loss reduction, voltage improvement

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27636 Forced Vibration of an Auxetic Cylindrical Shell Containing Fluid Under the Influence of Shock Load

Authors: Korosh Khorshidi

Abstract:

Due to the increasing use of different materials, such as auxetic structures, it is necessary to investigate mechanical phenomena, such as vibration, in structures made of these types of materials. This paper examines the forced vibrations of a three-layer cylindrical shell containing inviscid fluid under shock load. All three layers are made of aluminum, and the central layer is made of a re-entrant honeycomb cell structure. Using high-order shear deformation theories (HSDT) and Hamilton’s principle, the governing equations of the system have been extracted and solved by the Galerkin weighted residual method. The outputs of the Abaqus finite element software are used to validate the results. The system is investigated with both simple and clamped support conditions. Finally, this study investigates the influence of the geometrical parameters of the shell and the auxetic structure, as well as the type, intensity, duration, and location of the load, and the effect of the fluid on the dynamic and time responses.

Keywords: force vibration, cylindrical shell, auxetic structure, inviscid fluid

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