Search results for: risk elicitation
4750 Testing Method of Soil Failure Pattern of Sand Type as an Effort to Minimize the Impact of the Earthquake
Authors: Luthfi Assholam Solamat
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Nowadays many people do not know the soil failure pattern as an important part in planning the under structure caused by the loading occurs. This is because the soil is located under the foundation, so it cannot be seen directly. Based on this study, the idea occurs to do a study for testing the soil failure pattern, especially the type of sand soil under the foundation. The necessity of doing this to the design of building structures on the land which is the initial part of the foundation structure that met with waves/vibrations during an earthquake. If the underground structure is not strong it is feared the building thereon more vulnerable to the risk of building damage. This research focuses on the search of soil failure pattern, which the most applicable in the field with the loading periodic re-testing of a particular time with the help of the integrated video visual observations performed. The results could be useful for planning under the structure in an effort to try the upper structure is minimal risk of the earthquake.Keywords: soil failure pattern, earthquake, under structure, sand soil testing method
Procedia PDF Downloads 3584749 Examining the Investment Behavior of Arab Women in the Stock Market
Authors: Razan Salem
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Gender plays a vital role in the stock markets because men and women differ in their behavior when investing in stocks. Accordingly, the role of gender differences in investment behavior is an increasingly important strand in the field of behavioral finance research. The investment behaviors of women relative to men have been examined in the behavioral finance literature, mainly for comparison purposes. Women's roles in the stock market have not been examined in the behavioral finance literature, however, particularly with respect to the Arab region. This study aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the investment behavior of Arab women (in regards to their risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) relative to Arab men; using a sample from Arab women and men investors living in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In order to achieve the study's main aim, the researcher used non-parametric tests, as Mann-Whitney U test, along with frequency distribution analysis to analyze the study’s primary data. The researcher distributed close-ended online questionnaires to a sample of 550 Arab male and female individuals investing in stocks in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The results confirm that the sample Arab women invest less in stocks compared to Arab men due to their risk-averse behaviors and limited confidence levels. The results also reveal that due to Arab women’s very low investment literacy levels, they fear from taking the risk and invest often in stocks relative to Arab men. Overall, the study’s main variables (risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) have a combined effect on the investment behavior of Arab women and their limited participation in the stock market. Hence, this study is one of the very first studies that indicate the combined effect of the three main variables (which are usually studied separately in the existing literature) on the investment behavior of women, particularly Arab women. This study makes three important contributions to the growing literature on gender differences in investment behavior. First, while the behavioral finance literature documents evidence on gender differences in investment behaviors in many developed countries, there are very limited studies that investigate such differences in Arab countries. Arab women investors, generally, are ignored from the behavioral finance literature due probably to cultural barriers and data collection difficulties. Thus, this study extends the literature to include Arab women and their investment behaviors when trading stock relative to Arab men. Moreover, the study associates women investment literacy and confidence levels with their financial risk behaviors and participation in the stock market. This study provides direct evidence on Arab women's investment behaviors when trading stocks. Overall, studying Arab women investors is important to investigate whether the investment behavior identified for Western women investors are also found in Arab women investors.Keywords: Arab women, gender differences, investment behavior, stock markets
Procedia PDF Downloads 1814748 Entrepreneurship in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges
Authors: Bushra Jamil, Nudrat Baqri, Muhammad Hassan Saeed
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Entrepreneurship is creating or setting up a business not only for the purpose of generating profit but also for providing job opportunities. Entrepreneurs are problem solvers and product developers. They use their financial asset for hiring a professional team and combine the innovation, knowledge, and leadership leads to a successful startup or a business. To be a successful entrepreneur, one should be people-oriented and have perseverance. One must have the ability to take risk, believe in his/her potential, and have the courage to move forward in all circumstances. Most importantly, have the ability to take risk and can assess the risk. For STEM students, entrepreneurship is of specific importance and relevance as it helps them not just to be able to solve real life existing complications but to be able to recognize and identify emerging needs and glitches. It is becoming increasingly apparent that in today’s world, there is a need as well as a desire for STEM and entrepreneurship to work together. In Pakistan, entrepreneurship is slowly emerging, yet we are far behind. It is high time that we should introduce modern teaching methods and inculcate entrepreneurial initiative in students. A course on entrepreneurship can be included in the syllabus, and we must invite businessmen and policy makers to motivate young minds for entrepreneurship. This must be pitching competitions, opportunities to win seed funding, and facilities of incubation centers. In Pakistan, there are many good public sector research institutes, yet there is a void gap in the private sector. Only few research institute are meant for research and development. BJ Micro Lab is one of them. It is SECP registered company and is working in academia to promote and facilitate research in STEM. BJ Micro Lab is a women led initiative, and we are trying to promote research as a passion, not as an arduous burden. For this, we are continuously arranging training workshops and sessions. More than 100 students have been trained in ten different workshops arranged at BJ Micro Lab.Keywords: entrepreneurship, STEM, challenges, oppurtunties
Procedia PDF Downloads 1294747 The Big Five Personality Traits and Environmental Factors as Predictors of the Antisocial Behaviours among Juveniles
Authors: Karol Konaszewski
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Background: The article is an analysis of the results of the studies conducted among juveniles (boys and girls) in the case of whom the family court applied the educational means of placing them in the youth educational centers. The aim of the study was to find out the correlations between antisocial behaviors, personality traits and the environmental determinants (support factors and risk factors) among juveniles (boys and girls). Methods: The total of 481 juveniles staying in youth educational centers participated in the study. Applied research tools: The Antisocial Behaviors Scale by L. Pytka, NEO-FFI by P. T. Costa and R. R. McCrae was used to diagnose personality traits included in a popular five-factor model (it has been adapted into Polish by B. Zawadzki, J. Strelau, P. Szczepaniak, and M. Śliwińska) and a questionnaire concerning support factors and risk factors was constructed to measure environmental determinants. The data was analysed in a regression model. Findings: The analysis model showed that the significant predictors of antisocial behaviors were neuroticism, extraversion, conscientiousness and negative relations at school. In girls group, the significant predictors of antisocial behaviors were neuroticism, conscientiousness, family support and negative relations at school, while in boys group the significant predictors of antisocial behaviors were neuroticism, extraversion and negative relations at family. Discussion: The results of this study have important implications. They allow for a better understanding of the factors that contribute to antisocial behaviors among juveniles. Future interventions could be based on the creation of personality traits, strengthening of support factors and correction of risk factors.Keywords: antisocial behaviours, juveniles, personality, youth
Procedia PDF Downloads 2594746 The Effectiveness of an Educational Program on Awareness of Cancer Signs, Symptoms, and Risk Factors among School Students in Oman
Authors: Khadija Al-Hosni, Moon Fai Chan, Mohammed Al-Azri
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Background: Several studies suggest that most school-age adolescents are poorly informed on cancer warning signs and risk factors. Providing adolescents with sufficient knowledge would increase their awareness in adulthood and improve seeking behaviors later. Significant: The results will provide a clear vision in assisting key decision-makers in formulating policies on the students' awareness programs towards cancer. So, the likelihood of avoiding cancer in the future will be increased or even promote early diagnosis. Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness of an education program designed to increase awareness of cancer signs and symptoms risk factors, improve the behavior of seeking help among school students in Oman, and address the barriers to obtaining medical help. Methods: A randomized controlled trial with two groups was conducted in Oman. A total of 1716 students (n=886/control, n= 830/education), aged 15-17 years, at 10th and 11th grade from 12 governmental schools 3 in governorates from 20-February-2022 to 12-May-2022. Basic demographic data were collected, and the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) was used as the primary outcome. Data were collected at baseline (T0) and 4 weeks after (T1). The intervention group received an education program about cancer's cause and its signs and symptoms. In contrast, the control group did not receive any education related to this issue during the study period. Non-parametric tests were used to compare the outcomes between groups. Results: At T0, the lamp was the most recognized cancer warning sign in control (55.0%) and intervention (55.2%) groups. However, there were no significant changes at T1 for all signs in the control group. In contrast, all sign outcomes were improved significantly (p<0.001) in the intervention group, the highest response was unexplained pain (93.3%). Smoking was the most recognized risk factor in both groups: (82.8% for control; 84.1% for intervention) at T0. However, there was no significant change in T1 for the control group, but there was for the intervention group (p<0.001), the highest identification was smoking cigarettes (96.5%). Too scared was the largest barrier to seeking medical help by students in the control group at T0 (63.0%) and T1 (62.8%). However, there were no significant changes in all barriers in this group. Otherwise, being too embarrassed (60.2%) was the largest barrier to seeking medical help for students in the intervention group at T0 and too scared (58.6%) at T1. Although there were reductions in all barriers, significant differences were found in six of ten only (p<0.001). Conclusion: The intervention was effective in improving students' awareness of cancer symptoms, warning signs (p<0.001), and risk factors (p<0.001 reduced the most addressed barriers to seeking medical help (p<0.001) in comparison to the control group. The Ministry of Education in Oman could integrate awareness of cancer within the curriculum, and more interventions are needed on the sociological part to overcome the barriers that interfere with seeking medical help.Keywords: adolescents, awareness, cancer, education, intervention, student
Procedia PDF Downloads 864745 The Use of Metformin in Treatment of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) and Glucose Control in Pregnant Women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) at Tripoli Medical Center
Authors: Ebtisam A. Benomran, Abdurrauf M. Gusbi, Malak S. Elazarg, M. Sultan, Layla M. Kafu, Arwa M. Matoug, Esra E. Benamara
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Normal pregnancy is associated with metabolic changes leading to decreased insulin sensitivity and reduced glucose tolerance, however, 3-5% of pregnant women proceed to develop gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Researcher studied the use of metformin in many fields and the benefit to risk balance of using metformin during pregnancy and the risk of fetotoxic. In this study we examined the use of Metformin to control Glucose in pregnant Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and evaluate its safety use during the first trimester of pregnancy.A group of pregnant patients with gestational diabetes mellitus from the first trimester of pregnancy, non smoking with no family history of congenital malformation disease, aged between (20-45 years) and have no liver diseases and who had indicating good compliance at more than one visit over several month until delivery put on Metformin were participated in this trial. Our study shown that all the studied group of pregnant women using metformin 500 mg daily delivered a healthy babies. Meta-analysis by mother risk program showed no increase in incidence of malformations by use Metformin during the first trimester of pregnancy. A hundred outpatients were participated in the survey on the general knowledge and awareness of diabetic patients to their illness and medication used their aged between 20-40 years old. In this survey we realize that 90% of the doctors are not giving the patient full information about their illness and the use of metformin during pregnancy, also about 65% of the patients did not know about the nutritionist in the hospital and the right control diet for diabetes. Courses on first aid, rapid diagnosis of poisoning and follow the written procedures to dealing with such cases.Keywords: gestational diabetes, malformations, metformin, pregnancy
Procedia PDF Downloads 4924744 CFD Analysis of the Blood Flow in Left Coronary Bifurcation with Variable Angulation
Authors: Midiya Khademi, Ali Nikoo, Shabnam Rahimnezhad Baghche Jooghi
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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death globally. Most CVDs can be prevented by avoiding habitual risk factors. Separate from the habitual risk factors, there are some inherent factors in each individual that can increase the risk potential of CVDs. Vessel shapes and geometry are influential factors, having great impact on the blood flow and the hemodynamic behavior of the vessels. In the present study, the influence of bifurcation angle on blood flow characteristics is studied. In order to approach this topic, by simplifying the details of the bifurcation, three models with angles 30°, 45°, and 60° were created, then by using CFD analysis, the response of these models for stable flow and pulsatile flow was studied. In the conducted simulation in order to eliminate the influence of other geometrical factors, only the angle of the bifurcation was changed and other parameters remained constant during the research. Simulations are conducted under dynamic and stable condition. In the stable flow simulation, a steady velocity of 0.17 m/s at the inlet plug was maintained and in dynamic simulations, a typical LAD flow waveform is implemented. The results show that the bifurcation angle has an influence on the maximum speed of the flow. In the stable flow condition, increasing the angle lead to decrease the maximum flow velocity. In the dynamic flow simulations, increasing the bifurcation angle lead to an increase in the maximum velocity. Since blood flow has pulsatile characteristics, using a uniform velocity during the simulations can lead to a discrepancy between the actual results and the calculated results.Keywords: coronary artery, cardiovascular disease, bifurcation, atherosclerosis, CFD, artery wall shear stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 1644743 ACL Tear Prevention Program
Authors: Ervin Meqikukiqi
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It is difficult to assess how athletes can best modify their movements to prevent non contact ACL injuries. Speaking with an athletic trainer, physical therapist, or sports medicine specialist is a good place to start. Recent research has allowed therapists and clinicians to easily identify and target weak muscle areas (e.g., weak hips, which leads to knock-kneed landing positions) and identify ways to improve strength and thus help prevent injury. In addition, other risk factors such as reduced hamstring strength and increased joint range of motion can be further assessed by a physical therapist or athletic trainer to improve performance-or rehabilitation efforts after an injury has occurred. Current studies also demonstrate that specific types of training, such as jump routines and learning to pivot properly, help athletes prevent ACL injuries. These types of exercises and training programs are more beneficial if athletes start when they are young. It may be optimal to integrate prevention programs during early adolescence, prior to when young athletes develop certain habits that increase the risk of an ACL injury. This is a 20 minute program designed to reduce the risk of tears of the Anterior Cruciate Ligament. It should be started at least four and preferably six weeks prior to start of competition.Ideally it is done five times per week preseason and three times per week in season.The coach or trainer must constantly observe athletes during these exercises to correct and maintain proper technique. Once the athletes understand the principles, they can monitor and coach each other. Four phases: Warm-up, Strengthening, Plyometrics, Agility and Balance.Keywords: athletes, acl, prevention, injuries, plyoemtric, proprioception, agillity
Procedia PDF Downloads 4224742 Considerations When Using the Beach Chair Position for Surgery
Authors: Aniko Babits, Ahmad Daoud
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Introduction: The beach chair position (BCP) is a good approach to almost all types of shoulder procedures. However, moving an anaesthetized patient from the supine to sitting position may pose a risk of cerebral hypoperfusion and potential cerebral ischaemia as a result of significant reductions in blood pressure and cardiac output. Hypocapnia in ventilated patients and impaired blood flow to the vertebral artery due to hyperextension, rotation, or tilt of the head may have an impact too. Co-morbidities that may increase the risk of cerebral ischaemia in the BCP include diabetes with autonomic neuropathy, cerebrovascular disease, cardiac disease, severe hypertension, generalized vascular disease, history of fainting, and febrile conditions. Beach chair surgery requires a careful anaesthetic and surgical management to optimize patient safety and minimize the risk of adverse outcomes. Methods: We describe the necessary steps for optimal patient positioning and the aims of intraoperative management, including anaesthetic techniques to ensure patient safety in the BCP. Results: Regardless of the anaesthetic technique, adequate patient positioning is paramount in the BCP. The key steps to BCP are aimed at optimizing surgical success and minimizing the risk of severe neurovascular complications. The primary aim of anaesthetic management is to maintain cardiac output and mean arterial pressure (MAP) to protect cerebral perfusion. Blood pressure management includes treating a fall in MAP of more than 25% from baseline or a MAP less than 70 mmHg. This can be achieved by using intravenous fluids or vasopressors. A number of anaesthetic techniques could also improve cerebral oxygenation, including avoidance of intermittent positive pressure ventilation (IPPV) with general anaesthesia (GA), using regional anaesthesia, maintaining normocapnia and normothermia, and the application of compression stockings. Conclusions: In summary, BCP is a reliable and effective position to perform shoulder procedures. Simple steps to patient positioning and careful anaesthetic management could maximize patient safety and avoid unwanted adverse outcomes in patients undergoing surgery in BCP.Keywords: beach chair position, cerebral oxygenation, cerebral perfusion, sitting position
Procedia PDF Downloads 904741 Sickle Cell Disease: Review of Managements in Pregnancy and the Outcome in Ampang Hospital, Selangor
Authors: Z. Nurzaireena, K. Azalea, T. Azirawaty, S. Jameela, G. Muralitharan
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The aim of this study is the review of the management practices of sickle cell disease patients during pregnancy, as well as the maternal and neonatal outcome at Ampang Hospital, Selangor. The study consisted of a review of pregnant patients with sickle cell disease under follow up at the Hematology Clinic, Ampang Hospital over the last seven years to assess their management and maternal-fetal outcome. The results of the review show that Ampang Hospital is considered the public hematology centre for sickle cell disease and had successfully managed three pregnancies throughout the last seven years. Patients’ presentations, managements and maternal-fetal outcome were compared and reviewed for academic improvements. All three patients were seen very early in their pregnancy and had been given a regime of folic acid, antibiotics and thrombo-prophylactic drugs. Close monitoring of maternal and fetal well being was done by the hematologists and obstetricians. Among the patients, there were multiple admissions during the pregnancy for either a painful sickle cell bone crisis, haemolysis following an infection and anemia requiring phenotype- matched blood and exchange transfusions. Broad spectrum antibiotics coverage during and infection, hydration, pain management and venous-thrombolism prophylaxis were mandatory. The pregnancies managed to reach near term in the third trimester but all required emergency caesarean section for obstetric indications. All pregnancies resulted in live births with good fetal outcome. During post partum all were nursed closely in the high dependency units for further complications and were discharged well. Post partum follow up and contraception counseling was comprehensively given for future pregnancies. Sickle cell disease is uncommonly seen in the East, especially in the South East Asian region, yet more cases are seen in the current decade due to improved medical expertise and advance medical laboratory technologies. Pregnancy itself is a risk factor for sickle cell patients as increased thrombosis event and risk of infections can lead to multiple crisis, haemolysis, anemia and vaso-occlusive complications including eclampsia, cerebrovasular accidents and acute bone pain. Patients mostly require multiple blood product transfusions thus phenotype-matched blood is required to reduce the risk of alloimmunozation. Emphasizing the risks and complications in preconception counseling and establishing an ultimate pregnancy plan would probably reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality to the mother and unborn child. Early management for risk of infection, thromboembolic events and adequate hydration is mandatory. A holistic approach involving multidisciplinary team care between the hematologist, obstetricians, anesthetist, neonatologist and close nursing care for both mother and baby would ensure the best outcome. In conclusion, sickle cell disease by itself is a high risk medical condition and pregnancy would further amplify the risk. Thus, close monitoring with combine multidisciplinary care, counseling and educating the patients are crucial in achieving the safe outcome.Keywords: anaemia, haemoglobinopathies, pregnancy, sickle cell disease
Procedia PDF Downloads 2584740 Epidemiology, Clinical, Immune, and Molecular Profiles of Microsporidiosis and Cryptosporidiosis among HIV/AIDS patients
Authors: Roger WUMBA
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The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of intestinal parasites, with special emphasis on microsporidia and Cryptosporidium, as well as their association with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) symptoms, risk factors, and other digestive parasites. We also wish to determine the molecular biology definitions of the species and genotypes of microsporidia and Cryptosporidium in HIV patients. In this cross-sectional study, carried out in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, stool samples were collected from 242 HIV patients (87 men and 155 women) with referred symptoms and risk factors for opportunistic intestinal parasites. The analysis of feces specimen were performed using Ziehl–Neelsen stainings, real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunofluorescence indirect monoclonal antibody, nested PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism, and PCR amplification and sequencing. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were used to quantify the risk. Of the 242 HIV patients, 7.8%, 0.4%, 5.4%, 0.4%, 2%, 10.6%, and 2.8% had Enterocytozoon bieneusi, Encephalitozoon intestinalis, Cryptosporidium spp., Isospora belli, pathogenic intestinal protozoa, nonpathogenic intestinal protozoa, and helminths, respectively. We found five genotypes of E. bieneusi: two older, NIA1 and D, and three new, KIN1, KIN2, and KIN3. Only 0.4% and 1.6% had Cryptosporidium parvum and Cryptosporidium hominis, respectively. Of the patients, 36.4%, 34.3%, 31%, and 39% had asthenia, diarrhea, a CD4 count of ,100 cells/mm³, and no antiretroviral therapy (ART), respectively. The majority of those with opportunistic intestinal parasites and C. hominis, and all with C. parvum and new E. bieneusi genotypes, had diarrhea, low CD4+ counts of ,100 cells/mm³, and no ART. There was a significant association between Entamoeba coli, Kaposi sarcoma, herpes zoster, chronic diarrhea, and asthenia, and the presence of 28 cases with opportunistic intestinal parasites. Rural areas, public toilets, and exposure to farm pigs were the univariate risk factors present in the 28 cases with opportunistic intestinal parasites. In logistic regression analysis, a CD4 count of ,100 cells/mm³ (OR = 4.60; 95% CI 1.70–12.20; P = 0.002), no ART (OR = 5.00; 95% CI 1.90–13.20; P , 0.001), and exposure to surface water (OR = 2.90; 95% CI 1.01–8.40; P = 0.048) were identified as the significant and independent determinants for the presence of opportunistic intestinal parasites. E. bieneusi and Cryptosporidium are becoming more prevalent in Kinshasa, Congo. Based on the findings, we recommend epidemiology surveillance and prevention by means of hygiene, the emphasis of sensitive PCR methods, and treating opportunistic intestinal parasites that may be acquired through fecal–oral transmission, surface water, normal immunity, rural area-based person–person and animal–human nfection, and transmission of HIV. Therapy, including ART and treatment with fumagillin, is needed.Keywords: diarrhea, enterocytozoon bieneusi, cryptosporidium hominis, cryptosporidium parvum, risk factors, africans
Procedia PDF Downloads 1254739 Anticipating Asthma with Control Environmental Factors and Food
Authors: Destin Kurniawati
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Asthma is one of the deadly diseases in the world. According to the World Health Organization in 2012, 300 million people suffer from asthma of different races and classes. An estimated 250,000 people die because of asthma annually.As well as more than 57% of children and 51% of adults with asthma. There two risk factors for asthma. That risk factors are the host and environmental. One of the environmental factors that can bring asthma is allergens. When an allergen enters the body, the allergen binds to IgE and cause cell granulat- issued several mediators such as histamine, leukotrienes, bradykinin or something like that. This will cause localized edema effect on bronchial walls of small, thick mucous secretions in the bronchioles, and bronchial smooth muscle spasm. Then there will be inflammation of the airways. Methodology this research is by literature. Therefore, to anticipate and cope with asthma is to control environmental factors that serve to minimize allergens and controlling one's intake in the form of antioxidant-rich foods. Foods rich in antioxidants serve to improve lung function and decrease symptoms of the disease of the respiratory tract.Keywords: asthma, deadly disease, allergen, environmental and food control
Procedia PDF Downloads 2614738 Physical Activity, Exercise and Physical Fitness in Different Generation
Authors: Carl J. Caspersen, Kenneth E. Powell, Gregory M. Christenson, Kirupa V. Patel
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‘Physical activity’, ‘exercise’, and ‘physical fitness’ are terms that describe different concepts. However, they are often confused with one another, and the terms are sometimes used interchangeably. This paper proposes definitions to distinguish them. Physical activity is defined as any bodily movement produced by skeletal muscles that result in energy expenditure. The energy expenditure can be measured in kilocalories. Physical activity in daily life can be categorized into occupational, sports, Conditioning, household, or other activities. Exercise is a subset of physical activity that is planned, structured, and repetitive and has as a final or an intermediate objective the improvement or maintenance of physical fitness. Physical fitness is a set of attributes that are either health- or skill-related. The degree to which people have these attributes can be measured with specific tests. These definitions are offered as an interpretational framework for comparing studies that relate physical activity, exercise, and physical fitness to health. Physical activity is defined as any bodily movement produced by skeletal muscles that require energy expenditure. Physical inactivity has been identified as the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality causing an estimated 3.2 million deaths globally. Regular moderate intensity physical activity – such as walking, cycling, or participating in sports – has significant benefits for health. For instance, it can reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, colon and breast cancer, and depression. Moreover, adequate levels of physical activity will decrease the risk of a hip or vertebral fracture and help control weight. Any bodily movement produced by the contraction of skeletal muscle that increases energy expenditure above a basal level. In these guidelines, physical activity generally refers to the subset of physical activity that enhances health.Keywords: physical activity, exercise, physical fitness, sports
Procedia PDF Downloads 3614737 Risk and Reliability Based Probabilistic Structural Analysis of Railroad Subgrade Using Finite Element Analysis
Authors: Asif Arshid, Ying Huang, Denver Tolliver
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Finite Element (FE) method coupled with ever-increasing computational powers has substantially advanced the reliability of deterministic three dimensional structural analyses of a structure with uniform material properties. However, railways trackbed is made up of diverse group of materials including steel, wood, rock and soil, while each material has its own varying levels of heterogeneity and imperfections. It is observed that the application of probabilistic methods for trackbed structural analysis while incorporating the material and geometric variabilities is deeply underworked. The authors developed and validated a 3-dimensional FE based numerical trackbed model and in this study, they investigated the influence of variability in Young modulus and thicknesses of granular layers (Ballast and Subgrade) on the reliability index (-index) of the subgrade layer. The influence of these factors is accounted for by changing their Coefficients of Variance (COV) while keeping their means constant. These variations are formulated using Gaussian Normal distribution. Two failure mechanisms in subgrade namely Progressive Shear Failure and Excessive Plastic Deformation are examined. Preliminary results of risk-based probabilistic analysis for Progressive Shear Failure revealed that the variations in Ballast depth are the most influential factor for vertical stress at the top of subgrade surface. Whereas, in case of Excessive Plastic Deformations in subgrade layer, the variations in its own depth and Young modulus proved to be most important while ballast properties remained almost indifferent. For both these failure moods, it is also observed that the reliability index for subgrade failure increases with the increase in COV of ballast depth and subgrade Young modulus. The findings of this work is of particular significance in studying the combined effect of construction imperfections and variations in ground conditions on the structural performance of railroad trackbed and evaluating the associated risk involved. In addition, it also provides an additional tool to supplement the deterministic analysis procedures and decision making for railroad maintenance.Keywords: finite element analysis, numerical modeling, probabilistic methods, risk and reliability analysis, subgrade
Procedia PDF Downloads 1394736 Flood Risk Assessment for Agricultural Production in a Tropical River Delta Considering Climate Change
Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo
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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation
Procedia PDF Downloads 754735 Do Patients with Neck of Femur Fractures Receive Adequate Anticoagulation? A West Midlands Study
Authors: U. N. Bhatty, A. Bhatia, A. George, F. Fiaz
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Post-operatively, patients with the neck of femur fractures are the high-risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE). NICE have issued guidelines in this regard. We investigated whether these guidelines were being followed. 124 patients undergoing neck of femur fracture surgery were retrospectively analysed at a major orthopaedic centre in England. 9% of patients received adequate anticoagulation (16.5% mortality). An education campaign subsequently took place, circular emails were sent to junior doctors and posters advertised. A reaudit 4 months later showed only 12% of the 68 patients received adequate anticoagulation (11.8% mortality). The education campaign failed to improve prescribing behaviours. Furthermore, as morbidity was not measured, the consequence of poor prescription is underestimated. Perhaps, poor prescribing is because of the silent nature of effective thromboprophylaxis; reducing its perceived effectiveness. Simple interventions are insufficient to change these habits and more intense work is needed; such as compulsory proformas for all high-risk patients.Keywords: fracture, hip, orthopaedics, thromboembolism
Procedia PDF Downloads 3384734 Investigation Two Polymorphism of hTERT Gene (Rs 2736098 and Rs 2736100) and miR- 146a rs2910164 Polymorphism in Cervical Cancer
Authors: Hossein Rassi, Alaheh Gholami Roud-Majany, Zahra Razavi, Massoud Hoshmand
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Cervical cancer is multi step disease that is thought to result from an interaction between genetic background and environmental factors. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the leading risk factor for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)and cervical cancer. In other hand, some of hTERT and miRNA polymorphism may plays an important role in carcinogenesis. This study attempts to clarify the relation of hTERT genotypes and miR-146a genotypes in cervical cancer. Forty two archival samples with cervical lesion retired from Khatam hospital and 40 sample from healthy persons used as control group. A simple and rapid method was used to detect the simultaneous amplification of the HPV consensus L1 region and HPV-16,-18, -11, -31, 33 and -35 along with the b-globin gene as an internal control. We use Multiplex PCR for detection of hTERT and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in our lab. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Cervix lesions were collected from 42 patients with Squamous metaplasia, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical carcinoma. Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99bp). According to the results, hTERT ( rs 2736098) GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of cervical cancer in the study population. In this study, we detected 13 HPV 18 from 42 cervical cancer. The connection between several SNP polymorphism and human virus papilloma in rare researches were seen. The reason of these differences in researches' findings can result in different kinds of races and geographic situations and also differences in life grooves in every region. The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype may effect cervical cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with HPV 18 genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of hTERT rs 2736098 genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in combination with HPV18 can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of cervical cancers. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer by vaccination against HPV18 in Iran.Keywords: polymorphism of hTERT gene, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism, cervical cancer, virus
Procedia PDF Downloads 3214733 Detecting Cyberbullying, Spam and Bot Behavior and Fake News in Social Media Accounts Using Machine Learning
Authors: M. D. D. Chathurangi, M. G. K. Nayanathara, K. M. H. M. M. Gunapala, G. M. R. G. Dayananda, Kavinga Yapa Abeywardena, Deemantha Siriwardana
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Due to the growing popularity of social media platforms at present, there are various concerns, mostly cyberbullying, spam, bot accounts, and the spread of incorrect information. To develop a risk score calculation system as a thorough method for deciphering and exposing unethical social media profiles, this research explores the most suitable algorithms to our best knowledge in detecting the mentioned concerns. Various multiple models, such as Naïve Bayes, CNN, KNN, Stochastic Gradient Descent, Gradient Boosting Classifier, etc., were examined, and the best results were taken into the development of the risk score system. For cyberbullying, the Logistic Regression algorithm achieved an accuracy of 84.9%, while the spam-detecting MLP model gained 98.02% accuracy. The bot accounts identifying the Random Forest algorithm obtained 91.06% accuracy, and 84% accuracy was acquired for fake news detection using SVM.Keywords: cyberbullying, spam behavior, bot accounts, fake news, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 364732 Analysis of Truck Drivers’ Distraction on Crash Risk
Authors: Samuel Nderitu Muchiri, Tracy Wangechi Maina
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Truck drivers face a myriad of challenges in their profession. Enhancements in logistics effectiveness can be pivotal in propelling economic developments. The specific objective of the study was to assess the influence of driver distraction on crash risk. The study is significant as it elucidates best practices that truck drivers can embrace in an effort to enhance road safety. These include amalgamating behaviors that enable drivers to fruitfully execute multifaceted functions such as finding and following routes, evading collisions, monitoring speed, adhering to road regulations, and evaluating vehicle systems’ conditions. The analysis involved an empirical review of ten previous studies related to the research topic. The articles revealed that driver distraction plays a substantial role in road accidents and other crucial road security incidents across the globe. Africa depends immensely on the freight transport sector to facilitate supply chain operations. Several studies indicate that drivers who operate primarily on rural roads, such as those found in Sub-Saharan Africa, have an increased propensity to engage in distracted activities such as cell phone usage while driving. The findings also identified the need for digitalization in truck driving operations, including carrier management techniques such as fatigue management, artificial intelligence, and automating functions like cell phone usage controls. The recommendations can aid policymakers and commercial truck carriers in deepening their understanding of driver distraction and enforcing mitigations to foster road safety.Keywords: truck drivers, distraction, digitalization, crash risk, road safety
Procedia PDF Downloads 494731 Digitalization and High Audit Fees: An Empirical Study Applied to US Firms
Authors: Arpine Maghakyan
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The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the level of industry digitalization and audit fees, especially, the relationship between Big 4 auditor fees and industry digitalization level. On the one hand, automation of business processes decreases internal control weakness and manual mistakes; increases work effectiveness and integrations. On the other hand, it may cause serious misstatements, high business risks or even bankruptcy, typically in early stages of automation. Incomplete automation can bring high audit risk especially if the auditor does not fully understand client’s business automation model. Higher audit risk consequently will cause higher audit fees. Higher audit fees for clients with high automation level are more highlighted in Big 4 auditor’s behavior. Using data of US firms from 2005-2015, we found that industry level digitalization is an interaction for the auditor quality on audit fees. Moreover, the choice of Big4 or non-Big4 is correlated with client’s industry digitalization level. Big4 client, which has higher digitalization level, pays more than one with low digitalization level. In addition, a high-digitalized firm that has Big 4 auditor pays higher audit fee than non-Big 4 client. We use audit fees and firm-specific variables from Audit Analytics and Compustat databases. We analyze collected data by using fixed effects regression methods and Wald tests for sensitivity check. We use fixed effects regression models for firms for determination of the connections between technology use in business and audit fees. We control for firm size, complexity, inherent risk, profitability and auditor quality. We chose fixed effects model as it makes possible to control for variables that have not or cannot be measured.Keywords: audit fees, auditor quality, digitalization, Big4
Procedia PDF Downloads 3024730 Artificial Intelligence in Ethiopian Universities: The Influence of Technological Readiness, Acceptance, Perceived Risk, and Trust on Implementation - An Integrative Research Approach
Authors: Merih Welay Welesilassie
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Understanding educators' readiness to incorporate AI tools into their teaching methods requires comprehensively examining the influencing factors. This understanding is crucial, given the potential of these technologies to personalise learning experiences, improve instructional effectiveness, and foster innovative pedagogical approaches. This study evaluated factors affecting teachers' adoption of AI tools in their English language instruction by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to encompass digital readiness support, perceived risk, and trust. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted with 128 English language teachers, supplemented by qualitative data collection from 15 English teachers. The structural mode analysis indicated that implementing AI tools in Ethiopian higher education was notably influenced by digital readiness support, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, and trust. Digital readiness support positively impacted perceived ease of use, usefulness, and trust while reducing safety and privacy risks. Perceived ease of use positively correlated with perceived usefulness but negatively influenced trust. Furthermore, perceived usefulness strengthened trust in AI tools, while perceived safety and privacy risks significantly undermined trust. Trust was crucial in increasing educators' willingness to adopt AI technologies. The qualitative analysis revealed that the teachers exhibited strong content and pedagogical knowledge but needed more technology-related knowledge. Moreover, It was found that the teachers did not utilise digital tools to teach English. The study identified several obstacles to incorporating digital tools into English lessons, such as insufficient digital infrastructure, a shortage of educational resources, inadequate professional development opportunities, and challenging policies and governance. The findings provide valuable guidance for educators, inform policymakers about creating supportive digital environments, and offer a foundation for further investigation into technology adoption in educational settings in Ethiopia and similar contexts.Keywords: digital readiness support, AI acceptance, risk, trust
Procedia PDF Downloads 154729 Partition of Nonylphenol between Different Compartment for Mother-Fetus Pairs and Health Effects of Newborns
Authors: Chun-Hao Lai, Yu-Fang Huang, Pei-Wei Wang, Meng-Han Lin, Mei-Lien Chen
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Nonylphenol (NP) is a degradation product of nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs). It is a well-known endocrine disruptor which may cause estrogenic effects. The growing fetus and infants are more vulnerable to exposure to NP than adults. It is important to know the levels and influences of prenatal exposure to NP. The aims of this study were (1) to determine the levels of prenatal exposure among Taiwanese, (2) to evaluate the potential risk for the infants who were breastfed and exposed to NP through the milk. (3) To investigate the correlation between birth outcomes and prenatal exposure to NP. We analyzed thirty one pairs of maternal urines, placentas, first month’ breast milk by high-performance liquid chromatography coupling with fluorescence detector. The questionnaire included socio- demographics, lifestyle, delivery method, dietary and work history. Information about the birth outcomes were obtained from medical records. The daily intake of NP from breast milk was calculated using deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods. The geometric means and geometric standard deviation of NP levels in placenta, and breast milk in the first month were 31.2 (1.8) ng/g, 17.2 (1.6) ng/g, respectively. The medium of daily intake NP in breast milk was 1.33 μg/kg-bw/day in the first month. We found negative association between NP levels of placenta and birth height. And we observed negative correlation between maternal urine NP levels and birth weight. In this study, we could provide the NP exposure profile among Taiwan pregnant women and the daily intake of NP in Taiwan infants. Prenatal exposure to higher levels of NP may increase the risk of lower birth weight and shorter birth height.Keywords: nonylphenol, mother, fetus, placenta, breast milk, urine
Procedia PDF Downloads 2344728 Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the Retina Clinic at a Tertiary Center in Makkah Province, Saudi Arabia: A Retrospective Record Review
Authors: Rahaf Mandura, Fatmah Abusharkh, Layan Kurdi, Rahaf Shigdar, Khadijah Alattas
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Introduction: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in older individuals are serious health issues that severely impact the quality of life of millions globally. In 2020, the fourth leading cause of blindness worldwide was AMD. The global prevalence of AMD is estimated to be around 8.7%. AMD is a progressive disease involving the macular region of the retina, and it has a complex pathophysiology. RPE cell dysfunction plays a crucial step in the pathway leading to irreversible degeneration of photoreceptors with yellowish lipid-rich, protein-containing drusen deposits accumulating between Bruch's membrane and the RPE. Furthermore, lipofuscinogenesis, drusogenesis, inflammation, and neovascularization are four main processes responsible for the formation of the two types of AMD: the wet (exudative, neovascular) and dry (non-exudative, geographic atrophy) types. We retrospectively evaluated the prevalence of AMD among patients visiting the retina clinic at King Abdulaziz University Hospital (Jeddah, Makkah Province, Saudi Arabia) to identify the commonly associated risk factors of AMD. Methods: The records of 3,067 individuals from 2017 to 2021 were reviewed. Of these, 1,935 satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in this study. We excluded all patient below 18 years, and those who did not undergo fundus imaging or attend their booked appointments, follow-ups, treatments, and referrals were excluded. Results: The prevalence of AMD among the patients was 4%. The age of patients with AMD was significantly greater than those without AMD (72.4 ± 9.8 years vs. 57.2 ± 15.5 years; p < 0.001). Participants with a family history of AMD tended to have the disease more than those without such a history (85.7% vs. 45%; p = 0.043). Ex- and current smokers were more likely to have AMD than non-smokers (34% and 18.6% vs. 7.2%; p < 0.001). Patients with hypertension and those without type 1 diabetes were at a higher risk of developing AMD than those without hypertension (5.5% vs. 2.8%; p = 0.002) and those with type 1 diabetes (4.2% vs. 0.8%; p = 0.040). In contrast, sex, nationality, type 2 diabetes, and abnormal lipid profile were not significantly associated with AMD. Regarding the clinical characteristics of AMD cases, most cases (70.4%) were of the dry type and affected both eyes (77.2%). The disease duration was ≥5 years in 43.1% of the patients. The most frequent chronic diseases associated with AMD were type 2 diabetes (69.1%), hypertension (61.7%), and dyslipidemia (18.5%). Conclusion: In summary, our single tertiary center study showed that AMD is widely prevalent in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (4%) and linked to a wide range of risk factors. Some of these are modifiable risk factors that can be adjusted to help reduce AMD occurrence. Furthermore, this study has shown the importance of screening and follow-up of family members of patients with AMD to promote early detection and intervention of AMD. We recommend conducting further research on AMD in Saudi Arabia. Concerning the study design, a community-based cross-sectional study would be more helpful for assessing the disease's prevalence. Finally, recruiting a larger sample size is required for more accurate estimation.Keywords: age related macular degeneration, prevelence, risk factor, dry AMD
Procedia PDF Downloads 424727 Endothelial Progenitor Cells Is a Determinant of Vascular Function and Atherosclerosis in Ankylosing Spondylitis
Authors: Ashit Syngle, Inderjit Verma, Pawan Krishan
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Objective: Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) have reparative potential in overcoming the endothelial dysfunction and reducing cardiovascular risk. EPC depletion has been demonstrated in the setting of established atherosclerotic diseases. With this background, we evaluated whether reduced EPCs population are associated with endothelial dysfunction, subclinical atherosclerosis and inflammatory markers in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients without any known traditional cardiovascular risk factor in AS patients. Methods: Levels of circulating EPCs (CD34+/CD133+), brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation, carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and inflammatory markers i.e erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), tissue necrosis factor (TNF)–α, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1 were assessed in 30 AS patients (mean age33.41 ± 10.25; 11 female and 19 male) who fulfilled the modified New York diagnostic criteria with 25 healthy volunteers (mean age 29.36± 8.64; 9 female and 16 male) matched for age and sex. Results: EPCs (CD34+/CD133+) cells were significantly (0.020 ± 0.001% versus 0.040 ± 0.010%, p<0.001) reduced in patients with AS compared to healthy controls. Endothelial function (7.35 ± 2.54 versus 10.27 ±1.73, p=0.002), CIMT (0.63 ± 0.01 versus 0.35 ± 0.02, p < 0.001) and inflammatory markers were also significantly (p < 0.01) altered as compared to healthy controls. Specifically, CD34+CD133+cells were inversely multivariate correlated with CRP and TNF-α and endothelial dysfunction was positively correlated with reduced number of EPC. Conclusion: Depletion of EPCs population is an independent predictor of endothelial dysfunction and early atherosclerosis in AS patients and may provide additional information beyond conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers.Keywords: endothelial progenitor cells, atherosclerosis, ankylosing spondylitis, cardiovascular
Procedia PDF Downloads 3824726 Power System Cyber Security Risk in the Era of Digital Transformation
Authors: Rafat Rob, Khaled Alotaibi, Dana Nour, Abdullah Albadrani, Abdulmohsen Mulhim
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Power systems digitization solutions provides a comprehensive smart, cohesive, interconnected network, extensive connectivity between digital assets, physical power plants, and resources to form digital economies. However, digitization has exposed the classical air gapped power plants to the rapid spread of cyber threats and attacks in the process delaying and forcing many organizations to rethink their cyber security policies and standards before they can augment their operation the new advanced digital devices. Cyber Security requirements for power systems (and industry control systems therein) demand a new approach, unique methodology, and design process that is completely different to Cyber Security measures designed for the IT systems. In practice, Cyber Security strategy, as applied to power systems, tends to be closely aligned to those measures applied for IT system purposes. The differentiator for Cyber Security in terms of power systems are the physical assets and applications used, alongside the ever-growing rate of expansion within the industry controls sector (in comparison to the relatively saturated growth observed for corporate IT systems). These factors increase the magnitude of the cyber security risk within such systems. The introduction of smart devices and sensors along the grid initiate vulnerable entry points to the systems. Every installed Smart Meter is a target; the way these devices communicate with each other may instigate a Denial of Service (DoS) and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. Attacking one sensor or meter has the potential to propagate itself throughout the power grid reaching the IT network, where it may manifest itself as a malware infiltration.Keywords: supply chain, cybersecurity, maturity model, risk, smart grid
Procedia PDF Downloads 1144725 Why is the Recurrence Rate of Residual or Recurrent Disease Following Endoscopic Mucosal Resection (EMR) of the Oesophageal Dysplasia’s and T1 Tumours Higher in the Greater Midlands Cancer Network?
Authors: Harshadkumar Rajgor, Jeff Butterworth
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Background: Barretts oesophagus increases the risk of developing oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Over the last 40 years, there has been a 6 fold increase in the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the western world and the incidence rates are increasing at a greater rate than cancers of the colon, breast and lung. Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is a relatively new technique being used by 2 centres in the greater midlands cancer network. EMR can be used for curative or staging purposes, for high-grade dysplasia’s and T1 tumours of the oesophagus. EMR is also suitable for those who are deemed high risk for oesophagectomy. EMR has a recurrence rate of 21% according to the Wiesbaden data. Method: A retrospective study of prospectively collected data was carried out involving 24 patients who had EMR for curative or staging purposes. Complications of residual or recurrent disease following EMR that required further treatment were investigated. Results: In 54% of cases residual or recurrent disease was suspected. 96% of patients were given clear and concise information regarding their diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or T1 tumours. All 24 patients consulted the same specialist healthcare team. Conclusion: EMR is a safe and effective treatment for patients who have high-grade dysplasia and T1NO tumours. In 54% of cases residual or recurrent disease was suspected. Initially, only single resections were undertaken. Multiple resections are now being carried out to reduce the risk of recurrence. Complications from EMR remain low in this series and consisted of a single episode of post procedural bleeding.Keywords: endoscopic mucosal resection, oesophageal dysplasia, T1 tumours, cancer network
Procedia PDF Downloads 3164724 Quantifying Multivariate Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Malaria Risk Using Graph-Based Optimization in Southern Ethiopia
Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa
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Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix
Procedia PDF Downloads 784723 A Study to Explore the Effectiveness of an Educational Program on Awareness of Cancer Signs, Symptoms, and Risk Factors Among School Students in Oman
Authors: Khadija Al-Hosni, Moon Fai Chan, Mohammed Al-Azri
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Background: Several studies suggest that most school-age adolescents are poorly informed on cancer warning signs and risk factors. Providing adolescents with sufficient knowledge would increase their awareness in adulthood and improve seeking behaviors later. Significant: The results will provide a clear vision in assisting key decision-makers in formulating policies on the students' awareness programs towards cancer. So, the likelihood of avoiding cancer in the future will be increased or even promote early diagnosis. Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness of an education program designed to increase awareness of cancer signs and symptoms risk factors, improve the behavior of seeking help among school students in Oman, and address the barriers to obtaining medical help. Methods: A randomized controlled trial with two groups was conducted in Oman. A total of 1716 students (n=886/control, n= 830/education), aged 15-17 years, at 10th and 11th grade from 12 governmental schools 3 in governorates from 20-February-2022 to 12-May-2022. Basic demographic data were collected, and the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) was used as the primary outcome. Data were collected at baseline (T0) and 4 weeks after (T1). The intervention group received an education program about cancer's cause and its signs and symptoms. In contrast, the control group did not receive any education related to this issue during the study period. Non-parametric tests were used to compare the outcomes between groups. Results: At T0, the lamp was the most recognized cancer warning sign in the control (55.0%) and intervention (55.2%) groups. However, there were no significant changes at T1 for all signs in the control group. In contrast, all sign outcomes were improved significantly (p<0.001) in the intervention group, and the highest response was unexplained pain (93.3%). Smoking was the most recognized risk factor in both groups: (82.8% for control; 84.1% for intervention) at T0. However, there was no significant change in T1 for the control group, but there was for the intervention group (p<0.001), the highest identification was smoking cigarettes (96.5%). Too scared was the largest barrier to seeking medical help by students in the control group at T0 (63.0%) and T1 (62.8%). However, there were no significant changes in all barriers in this group. Otherwise, being too embarrassed (60.2%) was the largest barrier to seeking medical help for students in the intervention group at T0 and too scared (58.6%) at T1. Although there were reductions in all barriers, significant differences were found in six of ten only (p<0.001). Conclusion: The intervention was effective in improving students' awareness of cancer symptoms, warning signs (p<0.001), and risk factors (p<0.001 reduced the most addressed barriers to seeking medical help (p<0.001) in comparison to the control group. The Ministry of Education in Oman could integrate awareness of cancer within the curriculum, and more interventions are needed on the sociological part to overcome the barriers that interfere with seeking medical help.Keywords: adolescents, awareness, cancer, education, intervention, student
Procedia PDF Downloads 1184722 A Dam Break Analysis Using MIKE11
Authors: Oussama Derdous, Lakhdar Djemili, Hamza Bouchahed
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The consequences of a dam breach can be devastating; both in terms of lives lost and damaged infrastructure and property. Hydraulic modeling provides a clear picture of the possible consequences of partial or complete failure of a dam, which is the key to carry out emergency planning and conduct reliable risk assessments. In this paper, the MIKE11 model developed by the Danish Hydrologic Institute (DHI) was used to simulate the flood wave propagation associated with a potential failure analysis failure of Zardezas dam located in the city of Skikda in the North East of Algeria. MIKE11 results including inundation maps and the representative channel/valley cross-sections depicting flow depth and maximal flow velocities showed that Zardezas reservoir presents a significant risk to downstream areas in the event of a dam failure. These results can be used as the basis of the development of an Emergency Action Plan (EAP).The main objective of this plan is to predict the appropriate steps to avoid or at least decrease the consequences of unexpected failure of Zardezas dam.Keywords: MIKE11, dam break, inundation maps, emergency action plan
Procedia PDF Downloads 4634721 Study on Disaster Prevention Plan for an Electronic Industry in Thailand
Authors: S. Pullteap, M. Pathomsuriyaporn
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In this article, a study of employee’s opinion to the factors that affect to the flood preventive and the corrective action plan in an electronic industry at the Sharp Manufacturing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. has been investigated. The surveys data of 175 workers and supervisors have, however, been selected for data analysis. The results is shown that the employees emphasize about the needs in a subsidy at the time of disaster at high levels of 77.8%, as the plan focusing on flood prevention of the rehabilitation equipment is valued at the intermediate level, which is 79.8%. Demonstration of the hypothesis has found that the different education levels has thus been affected to the needs factor at the flood disaster time. Moreover, most respondents give priority to flood disaster risk management factor. Consequently, we found that the flood prevention plan is valued at high level, especially on information monitoring, which is 93.4% for the supervisor item. The respondents largely assume that the flood will have impacts on the industry, up to 80%, thus to focus on flood management plans is enormous.Keywords: flood prevention plan, flood event, electronic industrial plant, disaster, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 326