Search results for: car sequencing and operator allocation

Authors: Tamunotonye Mayowa Braide, Isaac Oluwatayo

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This study investigates multidimensional poverty, and its correlates among rural households in Sekhukhune and Capricorn District municipalities (SDM & CDM) in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Primary data were collected from 407 rural households selected through purposive and simple random sampling techniques. Analytical techniques employed include descriptive statistics, principal component analysis (PCA), and the Alkire Foster (A-F) methodology. The results of the descriptive statistics showed there are more females (66%) than males (34%) in rural areas of Limpopo Province, with about 45% of them having secondary school education as the highest educational level attained and only about 3% do not have formal education. In the analysis of deprivation, eight dimensions of deprivation, constructed from 21 variables, were identified using the PCA. These dimensions include type and condition of dwelling water and sanitation, educational attainment and income, type of fuel for cooking and heating, access to clothing and cell phone, assets and fuel for light, health condition, crowding, and child health. In identifying the poor with poverty cut-off (0.13) of all indicators, about 75.9% of the rural households are deprived in 25% of the total dimensions, with the adjusted headcount ratio (M0) being 0.19. Multidimensional poverty estimates showed higher estimates of poor rural households with 71%, compared to 29%, which fall below the income poverty line. The study conducted poverty decomposition, using sub-groups within the area by examining regions and household characteristics. In SDM, there are more multidimensionally poor households than in CDM. The water and sanitation dimension is the largest contributor to the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) in rural areas of Limpopo Province. The findings can, therefore, assist in better design of welfare policy and target poverty alleviation programs and as well help in efficient resource allocation at the provincial and local municipality levels.

Keywords: Alkire-Foster methodology, Limpopo province, multidimensional poverty, principal component analysis, South Africa

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Authors: Luz Hurtado, Rodrigo Rojas, Jaime Romero, Christopher Concha

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The culture of the marine fish red cusk eel Genypterus chilensis is currently considered a priority for Chilean aquaculture which is a Chilean native species of high gastronomic demand and market value. The microbiota was analyzed in terms of diversity and structure using massive Illumina sequencing. The analysis of alpha diversity was performed in samples of G. chilensis larvae of 6, 18 and 32 dph (days post-hatching) and it was observed that there were significant differences (P = 0.05) between the days of culture for the Chao1 index, being the larvae of 18 dph the one with the highest index followed by the larvae of 6 dph, The lowest value for this index was presented in larvae of 32 dph. There were no significant differences in larvae between the days of culture for the Shannon (P=0.0857) and Simpson (P=0.0714) indices. In general, the larvae of G. chilensis have high rates of diversity. When analyzing the beta diversity, a differentiation between the bacterial communities is observed depending on the day of the culture of the larvae. Considering the PCoA elaborated from the unweighted UniFrac statistic, the explained variance was 46.2% (PC1 29.2% and PC2 17.0%) and in the case of the PCoA elaborated with the weighted UniFrac statistic; the explained variance was 65.5% (PC1 41.8% and PC2 23.7%) these differences were significant based on the Permanova statistical analysis (P= 0.002 and 0.037 respectively). When analyzing the taxonomic composition of the microbiota of the larvae in the different days of culture it was observed that at the phyla level the most abundant in the larvae of 6 dph were Proteobacteria (57%) Verrucomicrobia (24%) and Firmicutes (14%), for the larvae of 18 dph the predominant phyla were Proteobacteria (90%), Dependientiae (5%), Actinobacteria (2%) and Plactomyces (2%), for the larvae of 32 dph the phyla that presented the highest relative abundance were Proteobacteria (57%), Firmicutes (29%), Verrucomicrobia (5%) and Actinobacteria (5%), when comparing the larvae between the days it was observed that the phylum Proteobacteria was the most abundant in the samples of larvae of 6, 18 and 32 dph being the larvae of 18 dph those that present the highest relative abundance, the larvae of 6 dph were those that presented the highest relative abundance for the phylum Verrucomicrobia and in the larvae of 32 dph was observed greater abundance of the phylum Firmicutes compared to the other days of larval culture. At the level of genera, those with the highest relative abundance in larvae of 6 dph were Rubritalea (30%), Psychrobacter (28%), staphylococcus (17%) and Ralstonia (10%), for the larvae of 18 dph the genera with the highest abundance were Psychrobacter (47%), Litoreibacter (13%), Nautella (9%) and Cohesibacter (8%), for the larvae of 32 dph the most abundant genera were Alloiococcus (25%), Dialister (14%), Neptunomonas (13%) and Piscirickettsia (11%). When observing the taxonomic composition of the larvae between the days of larval culture, it is observed that there are differences between them.

Keywords: microbiota, diversity, G. Chilensis, larvae

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Authors: Chia-Ying Lin

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This paper explains how to enhance doctor-patient communication and nurse-patient communication through multiple intelligence signing methods and user-centered. It is hoped that through the implementation of the "electronic consent", the problems faced by the paper consent can be solved: storage methods, resource utilization, convenience, correctness of information, integrated management, statistical analysis and other related issues. Make better use and allocation of resources to provide better medical quality. First, invite the ｍedical records department to assist in the inventory of paper consent in the hospital: organising, classifying, merging, coding, and setting. Second, plan the electronic consent configuration file: set the form number, consent form group, fields and templates, and the corresponding doctor's order code. Next, Summarize four types of rapid methods of electronic consent: according to the doctor's order, according to the medical behavior, according to the schedule, and manually generate the consent form. Finally, system promotion and adjustment: form an "electronic consent promotion team" to improve, follow five major processes: planning, development, testing, release, and feedback, and invite clinical units to raise the difficulties faced in the promotion, and make improvements to the problems. The electronic signature rate of the whole hospital will increase from 4% in January 2022 to 79% in November 2022. Use the saved resources more effectively, including: reduce paper usage (reduce carbon footprint), reduce the cost of ink cartridges, re-plan and use the space for paper medical records, and save human resources to provide better services. Through the introduction of information technology and technology, the main spirit of "lean management" is implemented. Transforming and reengineering the process to eliminate unnecessary waste is also the highest purpose of this project.

Keywords: smart signature, electronic consent, electronic medical records, user-centered, doctor-patient communication, nurse-patient communication

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Authors: Noura El-Ahmady El-Naggar

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L-asparaginase is an important enzyme as therapeutic agents used in combination therapy with other drugs in the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children. L-asparaginase producing actinomycete strain, NEAE-K, was isolated from soil sample and identified on the basis of morphological, cultural, physiological and biochemical properties, together with 16S rDNA sequence as new subsp. Streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes NEAE-K and sequencing product (1532 bp) was deposited in the GenBank database under accession number KJ200343. The study was conducted to screen parameters affecting the production of L-asparaginase by Streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes NEAE-K on solid state fermentation using Plackett–Burman experimental design. Sixteen different independent variables including incubation time, moisture content, inoculum size, temperature, pH, soybean meal+ wheat bran, dextrose, fructose, L-asparagine, yeast extract, KNO3, K2HPO4, MgSO4.7H2O, NaCl, FeSO4. 7H2O, CaCl2, and three dummy variables were screened in Plackett–Burman experimental design of 20 trials. The most significant independent variables affecting enzyme production (dextrose, L-asparagine and K2HPO4) were further optimized by the central composite design. As a result, a medium of the following formula is the optimum for producing an extracellular L-asparaginase by Streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes NEAE-K from solid state fermentation: g/L (soybean meal+ wheat bran 15, dextrose 3, fructose 4, L-asparagine 8, yeast extract 2, KNO3 1, K2HPO4 2, MgSO4.7H2O 0.5, NaCl 0.1, FeSO4. 7H2O 0.02, CaCl2 0.01), incubation time 7 days, moisture content 50%, inoculum size 3 mL, temperature 30°C, pH 8.5.

Keywords: streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes neae-k, 16s rrna, identification, solid state fermentation, l-asparaginase production, plackett-burman design, central composite design

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Authors: Elahe Kamari

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Research on translation process has been conducted for more than 20 years, investigating various issues and using different research methodologies. Most recently, researchers have started to use eye tracking to study translation processes. They believed that the observable, measurable data that can be gained from eye tracking are indicators of unobservable cognitive processes happening in the translators’ mind during translation tasks. The aim of this study was to investigate directionality in translation processes through using eye tracking. The following hypotheses were tested: 1) processing the target text requires more cognitive effort than processing the source text, in both directions of translation; 2) L2 translation tasks on the whole require more cognitive effort than L1 tasks; 3) cognitive resources allocated to the processing of the source text is higher in L1 translation than in L2 translation; 4) cognitive resources allocated to the processing of the target text is higher in L2 translation than in L1 translation; and 5) in both directions non-professional translators invest more cognitive effort in translation tasks than do professional translators. The performance of a group of 30 male professional translators was compared with that of a group of 30 male non-professional translators. All the participants translated two comparable texts one into their L1 (Persian) and the other into their L2 (English). The eye tracker measured gaze time, average fixation duration, total task length and pupil dilation. These variables are assumed to measure the cognitive effort allocated to the translation task. The data derived from eye tracking only confirmed the first hypothesis. This hypothesis was confirmed by all the relevant indicators: gaze time, average fixation duration and pupil dilation. The second hypothesis that L2 translation tasks requires allocation of more cognitive resources than L1 translation tasks has not been confirmed by all four indicators. The third hypothesis that source text processing requires more cognitive resources in L1 translation than in L2 translation and the fourth hypothesis that target text processing requires more cognitive effort in L2 translation than L1 translation were not confirmed. It seems that source text processing in L2 translation can be just as demanding as in L1 translation. The final hypothesis that non-professional translators allocate more cognitive resources for the same translation tasks than do the professionals was partially confirmed. One of the indicators, average fixation duration, indicated higher cognitive effort-related values for professionals.

Keywords: translation processes, eye tracking, cognitive resources, directionality

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Authors: Jessica Achebe, Susan Tighe

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The recent Canadian infrastructure report card reveals the unhealthy state of municipal infrastructure intensified challenged faced by municipalities to maintain adequate infrastructure performance thresholds and meet user’s required service levels. For a road agency, huge funding gap issue is inflated by growing concerns of the environmental repercussion of road construction, operation and maintenance activities. As the reduction of material consumption and greenhouse gas emission when maintain and rehabilitating road networks can achieve added benefits including improved life cycle performance of pavements, reduced climate change impacts and human health effect due to less air pollution, improved productivity due to optimal allocation of resources and reduced road user cost. Incorporating environmental sustainability measure into pavement management is solution widely cited and studied. However measuring the environmental performance of road network is still a far-fetched practice in road network management, more so an ostensive agency-wide environmental sustainability or sustainable maintenance specifications is missing. To address this challenge, this present research focuses on the environmental sustainability performance of network-level pavement management. The ultimate goal is to develop a framework to incorporate environmental sustainability in pavement management systems for network-level maintenance programming. In order to achieve this goal, this study reviewed previous studies that employed environmental performance measures, as well as the suitability of environmental performance indicators for the evaluation of the sustainability of network-level pavement maintenance strategies. Through an industry practice survey, this paper provides a brief forward regarding the pavement manager motivations and barriers to making more sustainable decisions, and data needed to support the network-level environmental sustainability. The trends in network-level sustainable pavement management are also presented, existing gaps are highlighted, and ideas are proposed for sustainable network-level pavement management.

Keywords: pavement management, sustainability, network-level evaluation, environment measures

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Authors: Mohammad Julhas Sujan, Md. Ferdous Alam

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Maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) holds one of the prime focuses in Bangladesh’s national healthcare system. To save the lives of mothers and children, knowing the stock of MNCH medicines in different healthcare facilities and when to replenish them are essential. A robust information system not only facilitates efficient management of the essential MNCH medicines but also helps effective allocation of scarce resources. In Bangladesh, Supply chain management of the 25-essential life-saving medicines are currently tracked and monitored via an electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS). Our aim was to conduct a cross-sectional study with a year (2020) worth of data from 24 districts of Bangladesh to evaluate how eLMIS is helping the Government and other stakeholders in efficient supply chain management. Data were collected from 4711 healthcare facilities ranging from primary to secondary levels within a district. About 90% (4143) are community clinics which are considered primary health care facilities in Bangladesh. After eLMIS implementation, the average reporting rate across the districts has been increased (> 97%). The month of stock (MOS) of zinc is an average 6 months compared to Inj. Magnesium Sulphate which will take 2.5 years to consume according to the current average monthly consumption (AMC). Due to first approaching expiry, Tab. Misoprostol, 7.1% Chlorhexidine and Inj. Oxytocin may become unusable. Moreover, Inj. Oxytocin is temperature sensitive and may reduce its efficacy if it is stocked for a longer period. In contrast, Zinc should be sufficiently stocked to prevent sporadic stockouts. To understand how data are collected, transmitted, processed, and aggregated for MNCH medicines in a faster and timely manner, an electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS) is necessary. We recommend the use of such a system in developing countries like Bangladesh for efficient supply chain management of essential MNCH medicines.

Keywords: adaption, eLMIS, MNCH, live-saving medicines

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Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Sachiko Hosoya

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Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the social policy of preventive genetic medicine in Iran, by following the legalization process of abortion law and the factors affecting the process in wider Iranian contexts. In this paper, ethical discussions of prenatal diagnosis and selective abortion in Iran will be presented, by exploring Iranian social policy to control genetic diseases, especially a genetic hemoglobin disorder called Thalassemia. The ethical dilemmas in application of genetic medicine into social policy will be focused. Method: In order to examine the role of the policy for prevention of genetic diseases and selective abortion in Iran, various resources have been sutudied, not only academic articles, but also discussion in the Parliament and documents related to a court case, as well as ethnographic data on living situation of Thalassemia patients. Results: Firstly, the discussion on prenatal diagnosis and selective abortion is overviewed from the viewpoints of ethics, disability rights activists, and public policy for lower-resources countries. As a result, it should be noted that the point more important in the discussion on prenatal diagnosis and selective abortion in Iran is the allocation of medical resources. Secondly, the process of implementation of national thalassemia screening program and legalization of ‘Therapeutic Abortion Law’ is analyzed, through scrutinizing documents such as the Majlis record, government documents and related laws and regulations. Although some western academics accuse that Iranian policy of selective abortion seems to be akin to eugenic public policy, Iranian government carefully avoid to distortions of the policy as ‘eugenic’. Thirdly, as a comparative example, discussions on an Iranian court case of patient’s ‘right not to be born’ will be introduced. Along with that, restrictive living environments of people with Thalassemia patients and the carriers are depicted, to understand some disabling social factors for people with genetic diseases in the local contexts of Iran.

Keywords: abortion, Iran, prenatal diagnosis, public health ethics, Thalassemia prevention program

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Authors: Kalpana Goel

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Australian social work schools are finding it difficult to find appropriate placements for the increasing number of international students enrolled in their Master of Social Work qualifying (MSWQ) programs. Anecdotally, it has been noticed that fewer social work students are ready to work with older people whose numbers are rising globally. An innovative and unique placement for international students enrolled in the MSWQ at one Australian university was organised in partnership with a community-based service working with older clients to meet two objectives: increasing the number of suitable placements for international students and preparing social work students to work with older people. Creative activities and projects were designed to provide meaningful engagement and experience in working with older people in the community. Students participated in a number of projects that were matched with their interest and capability in a 500-hour placement. The students were asked to complete an online survey after all work for the placement had been completed. The areas of assessment were: self-perceived change in perception towards age and older people, valued field placement experiences including reflective practice, knowledge and skill development, and constraints and challenges experienced in the placement. Findings revealed students’ increased level of confidence in applying social work theory to practice, developing effective communication and interpersonal skills, and use of innovation and creativity in preparing well-being plans with older adults. Challenges and constraints related to their limited English language ability and lack of cultural knowledge of the host society. It was recognised that extra support for these students and more planning in the beginning phase of placement are vital to placement success. Caution in matching students with clients of similar cultural background must be exercised to ensure that there is equity in task allocation and opportunities for wider experiences.

Keywords: field placement, international students, older people, social work

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Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

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Bangladesh contributes little to global climate change, yet it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Based on semi-structured in-depth interviews and literature review, focusing public spending distribution process, this paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy- enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) efforts of Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF). Enclosure refers to when CCA projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when CCA projects limit affected people's access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of CCA projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when CCA projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In the case of Bangladesh, climate change policies implemented under the country’s National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategic Action Plan (BCCSAP) have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of CCA exist at both the national and local scales. CCA related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, CCA related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of BCCTF need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, climate change adaptation, political economy, public fund distribution

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Authors: S. Pathak, R. Lazarus

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A 25-year-old male HIV patient (CD4 cells 20/µL and HIV viral load 14200000 copies/ml) with a past medical history of duodenal ulcer, pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, oesophageal candidiasis presented with fever and a seizure to hospital. The only recent travel had been a religious pilgrimage from Singapore to Malaysia 5 days prior; during the trip he sustained skin abrasions. The patient had recently started highly active antiretroviral therapy 2 months prior. Clinical examination was unremarkable other than a temperature of 38.8°C and perianal warts. Laboratory tests showed a leukocyte count 12.5x109 cells/L, haemoglobin 9.4 g/dL, normal biochemistry and a C-reactive protein 121 mg/L. CT head and MRI head were unremarkable and cerebrospinal fluid analysis performed after a delay (due to technical difficulties) of 11 days was unremarkable. Blood cultures (three sets) taken on admission showed Gram-negative rods in the anaerobic bottles only at the end of incubation with culture result confirmed by molecular sequencing showing Helicobacter cinaedi. The patient was treated empirically with ceftriaxone for seven days and this was converted to oral co-amoxiclav for a further seven days after the blood cultures became positive. A Transthoracic echocardiogram was unremarkable. The patient made a full recovery. Helicobacter cinaedi is a gram-negative anaerobic fastidious organism affecting patients with comorbidity. Infection may manifest as cellulitius, colitis or as in this case as bloodstream infection – the latter is often attributed to faeco-oral infection. Laboratory identification requires prolonged culture. Therapeutic options may be limited by resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones. The likely pathogen inoculation routes in the case described include gastrointestinal translocation due to proctitis at the site of perianal warts, or breach of the skin via abrasions occurring during the pilgrimage. Such organisms are increasing in prevalence as our patient population ages and patients have multiple comorbidities including HIV. It may be necessary in patients with unexplained fever to prolong incubation of sterile sites including blood in order to identify this unusual fastidious organism.

Keywords: fastidious, Helicobacter cinaedi, HIV, immunocompromised

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Authors: Showkat Ahmad Bhat, M. S. Bhatt

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The study evaluates the ex-post impact of institutional credit on agricultural output. It first examines the key factors that influence the accessibility of institutional credit by farm households. For quantitative analysis both program participant and non-participant respondents were drawn and cross-sectional survey data were collected from 412 households in Pulwama District of Jammu & Kashmir (India). Propensity Score Matching Method was employed to analyze the impact of the institutional credit on agricultural output. Results show that institutional credit has a positive and significant impact on the agricultural output measured in terms of farm income and crop productivity. To estimate the accessibility of credit, an examination of both demand side and supply side factors were carried out. The demand for credit was measured with respect to respondents who applied for credit. Supply side credit allocation measured in terms of the proportion of ‘credit amount’ farmers obtained. Logit and Two-limit Tobit Regression Models were used to investigate the determinants that influence the accessibility of formal credit for Demand for and supply of credit respectively. The estimated results suggested that the demand for credit is positively and significantly affected by the factors such as: age of the household head, formal education, membership, cash crop grown, farm size and saving account. All the variables were found significantly increasing the household’s likelihood to demand for and supply of credit from banks. However, the impact of these factors varies considerably across the credit markets. Factors which were found negatively and significantly influencing the accessibility of credit were: ‘square of the age’, household assets and rate of interest. The credit constraints analysis suggested that square of the age; household assets and rate of interest were the three most important factors that increased the probability of being constrained. The study finally discusses these results in detail and draws some recommendations.

Keywords: institutional credit, agriculture, propensity score matching logit model, Tobit model

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Authors: Zintle Sikhunyana

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Management of public finance in many countries such as South Africa is affected by political decisions and by policies around fiscal decentralization amongst the government spheres. Economic success is said to be determined by efficient management of public finance and by the policies or strategies that are implemented to support efficient public finance management. Policymakers focus on pay attention to how economic policies have been implemented and how they are directed into ensuring stable development. This will allow policymakers to address economic challenges through the usage of fiscal policy parameters that are linked to the achieved rate of economic growth and development. Efficient public finance management reduces the likelihood of corruption and corruption is said to have negative effects on economic growth and development. Corruption in public finance refers to an act of using funds for personal benefits. To achieve macroeconomic objectives, governments make use of government expenditure and government expenditure is financed through tax revenue. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of public finance management on economic growth and development in South Africa. The secondary data obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and World Bank for 1980- 2020 has been utilized to achieve the research objectives. To test the impact of public finance management on economic growth and development, the study will use Seeming Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) Modelling that allows researchers to model multiple equations with interdependent variables. The advantages of using SUR are that it efficiently allows estimation of relationships between variables by combining information on different equations and SUR test restrictions that involve parameters in different equations. The findings have shown that there is a positive relationship between efficient public finance management and economic growth/development. The findings also show that efficient public finance management has an indirect positive impact on economic growth and development. Corruption has a negative impact on economic growth and development. It results in an efficient allocation of government resources and thereby improves economic growth and development. The study recommends that governments who aim to stimulate economic growth and development should target and strengthen public finance management policies or strategies.

Keywords: corruption, economic growth, economic development, public finance management, fiscal decentralization

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Authors: Yanqun Li, Hong Geng

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The rapid urbanization process taking big cities as the main body leads to the unequal configuration of urban and rural areas in the aspects of land supply, industrial division of labor, service supply and space allocation, and induces the shrinking characterization of service energy, industrial system and population vitality in small towns. As an important spatial unit in the spectrum of urbanization that serves, connects and couples urban and rural areas, the shrinking phenomenon faced by small towns has an important influence on the healthy development of urbanization. Based on the census of small towns in Wuhan metropolitan area, we have found that the shrinking of small towns is a passive contraction of elastic tension under the squeeze in cities. Once affected by the external forces such as policy regulation, planning guidance, and population return, small towns will achieve expansion and growth. Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems, this paper comprehensively constructs the development index evaluation system of small towns from five aspects of population, economy, space, society and ecology, measures the shrinking level of small towns, further analyzes the shrinking characteristics of small towns, and identifies whether the shrinking is elastic or not. And then this paper measures the resilience ability index of small town contract from the above-mentioned five aspects. Finally, this paper proposes an adaptive mechanism of urban-rural interaction evolution under fine division of labor to response the passive shrinking in small towns of Wuhan. Based on the above, the paper creatively puts forward the planning response measures of the small towns on the aspects of spatial layout, function orientation and service support, which can provide reference for other regions.

Keywords: complex adaptive systems, resiliency shrinking, adaptation mechanism, planning response

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Authors: Jean Paul M. Milambo

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Purpose: Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are indicated in the treatment of hormone-receptive breast cancer in postmenopausal women in various settings. Studies have shown cardiovascular events in some developed countries. To date the data is sparce for evidence-based recommendations in African clinical settings due to lack of cancer registries, capacity building and surveillance systems. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the feasibility of HyBeacon® probe genotyping adjunctive to standard care for timely prediction and diagnosis of Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) associated adverse events in breast cancer survivors in Africa. Methods: Cross sectional study was conducted to assess the knowledge of POCT among six African countries using online survey and telephonically contacted. Incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated, using diagnostic accuracy study. This was based on mathematical modeling. Results: One hundred twenty-six participants were considered for analysis (mean age = 61 years; SD = 7.11 years; 95%CI: 60-62 years). Comparison of genotyping from HyBeacon® probe technology to Sanger sequencing showed that sensitivity was reported at 99% (95% CI: 94.55% to 99.97%), specificity at 89.44% (95% CI: 87.25 to 91.38%), PPV at 51% (95%: 43.77 to 58.26%), and NPV at 99.88% (95% CI: 99.31 to 100.00%). Based on the mathematical model, the assumptions revealed that ICER was R7 044.55. Conclusion: POCT using HyBeacon® probe genotyping for AI-associated adverse events maybe cost effective in many African clinical settings. Integration of preventive measures for early detection and prevention guided by different subtype of breast cancer diagnosis with specific clinical, biomedical and genetic screenings may improve cancer survivorship. Feasibility of POCT was demonstrated but the implementation could be achieved by improving the integration of POCT within primary health cares, referral cancer hospitals with capacity building activities at different level of health systems. This finding is pertinent for a future envisioned implementation and global scale-up of POCT-based initiative as part of risk communication strategies with clear management pathways.

Keywords: breast cancer, diagnosis, point of care, South Africa, aromatase inhibitors

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Authors: Sajewicz-Krukowska Joanna, Domańska-Blicharz Katarzyna, Tarasiuk Karolina, Marzec-Kotarska Barbara

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Astroviral infections pose a significant problem in the poultry industry, leading to multiple adverse effects such as decreased egg production, breeding disorders, poor weight gain, and even increased mortality. Commonly observed chicken astrovirus (CAstV) was recently reported to be responsible for "white chicks syndrome" associated with increased embryo/chick mortality. The CAstV-mediated pathogenesis in chicken occurs due to complex interactions between the infectious pathogen and the immune system. Many aspects of CAstV-chicken interactions remain unclear, and there is no information available regarding gene expression changes in the chicken's spleen in response to CAstV infection. We aimed to investigate the molecular background triggered by CAstV infection. Ten 21-day-old SPF White Leghorn chickens were divided into two groups of 5 birds each. One group was inoculated with CAstV, and the other was used as the negative control. On 4th dpi, spleen samples were collected and immediately frozen at -70°C for RNA isolation. We analysed transcriptional profiles of the chickens' spleens at the 4th day following infection using RNA-seq to establish differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The RNA-seq findings were verified by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). A total of 31959 transcripts were identified in response to CAstV infection. Eventually 45 DEGs (p-value<0.05; Log2Foldchange>1)were recognized in the spleen after CAstV infection (26 upregulated DEGs and 19 downregulated DEGs). qRT-PCR performed on 4 genes (IFIT5, OASL, RASD1, DDX60) confirmed RNAseq results. Top differentially expressed genes belonged to novel putative IFN-induced CAstV restriction factors. Most of the DEGs were associated with RIG-I–like signalling pathway or, more generally, with an innate antiviral response(upregulated: BLEC3, CMPK2, IFIT5, OASL, DDX60, IFI6, and downregulated: SPIK5, SELENOP, HSPA2, TMEM158, RASD1, YWHAB). The study provided a global analysis of host transcriptional changes that occur during CAstV infection in vivo and proved the cell cycle in the spleen and immune signalling in chickens were predominantly affected upon CAstV infection.

Keywords: chicken astrovirus, CastV, RNA-seq, transcriptome, spleen

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Authors: Donghun Lee, Jiyoung Shin, Youjin Kim, Jin Joo Kim

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The sinking of Sewol ferry occurred in Korea on the morning of 16 April 2014 while carrying 476 people. In all, 304 passengers, mostly secondary school students from Danwon High School in Ansan City died in the disaster. The sinking of Sewol ferry has resulted in widespread social and political turmoil within South Korea. Many criticize the actions of the captain and crews of the ferry as well as the ferry operator and the regulators who oversaw its operations. However, huge criticism has been directed at the South Korean government for its national disaster response system. This disaster has made Korean government build up a new disaster management and psychological support system. The purpose of this study was to understand developmental and change process of a female counselor in her late fifties participated in Sewol ferry disaster counseling for a year. She has participated in providing as a counselor counseling and psychological support for the victims' families of Sewol ferry disaster, additionally as a director of community youth counseling center operated by local government by establishing governmental psychological supports plan for recovering collective trauma in the community, through which she have gotten self-reflection of whole her life. For in-depth interview data analysis, Mandelbaum’s three conceptual frameworks were employed; dimensions, turnings, and adaptation. The result of the study indicates extracted categories of life dimension, turning point and adaptation. The details of these categories are ‘having a self-image in youth’, ‘marriage in fairy-tale’, ‘unexpected death of husband’, ‘taking a step forward from darkness’, the way of counselor’, nice grown child’, ‘Sewol ferry disaster’ in life dimension, ‘death in front of life’, ‘milestone in life, counseling’ in turning points, ‘before Sewol ferry disaster’, ‘after Sewol ferry disaster’ in adaptation. Life history methods revealed the counselor’s internal developmental process by analyzing what Sewol ferry disaster influenced on an individual life, especially a counselor's one, what changes she went through, and how she adapted herself to that. Based on the results, discussions and suggestions are provided.

Keywords: development and change, disaster counseling, identity of female counselor, Mandelbaum’s life history, Sewol ferry

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Authors: Dejenie Birile Gemeda, Wilhelm Stork

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The power system is one of the most important systems in modern society. The existing power system is approaching the critical operating limits as views of several power system operators. With the increase of load demand, high capacity and long transmission networks are widely used to meet the requirement. With the integration of renewable energies such as wind and solar, the uncertainty, intermittence bring bigger challenges to the operation of power systems. These dynamic uncertainties in the power system lead to power disturbances. The disturbances in a heavily stressed power system cause distance relays to mal-operation or false alarms during post fault power oscillations. This unintended operation of these relays may propagate and trigger cascaded trappings leading to total power system blackout. This is due to relays inability to take an appropriate tripping decision based on ensuing power swing. According to the N-1 criterion, electric power systems are generally designed to withstand a single failure without causing the violation of any operating limit. As a result, some overloaded components such as overhead transmission lines can still work for several hours under overload conditions. However, when a large power swing happens in the power system, the settings of the distance relay of zone 3 may trip the transmission line with a short time delay, and they will be acting so quickly that the system operator has no time to respond and stop the cascading. Misfiring of relays in absence of fault due to power swing may have a significant loss in economic performance, thus a loss in revenue for power companies. This research paper proposes a method to distinguish stable power swing from unstable using dynamic line rating (DLR) in response to power swing or disturbances. As opposed to static line rating (SLR), dynamic line rating support effective mitigation actions against propagating cascading outages in a power grid. Effective utilization of existing transmission lines capacity using machine learning DLR predictions will improve the operating point of distance relay protection, thus reducing unintended power outages due to power swing.

Keywords: blackout, cascading outages, dynamic line rating, power swing, overhead transmission lines

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Authors: M. Moyzykh, I. Klichuk, L. Sabirov, D. Kolomentseva, E. Magommedov

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Modern city electrical grids are forced to increase their density due to the increasing number of customers and requirements for reliability and resiliency. However, progress in this direction is often limited by the capabilities of existing network equipment. New energy sources or grid connections increase the level of short-circuit currents in the adjacent network, which can exceed the maximum rating of equipment–breaking capacity of circuit breakers, thermal and dynamic current withstand qualities of disconnectors, cables, and transformers. Superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) is a modern solution designed to deal with the increasing fault current levels in power grids. The key feature of this device is its instant (less than 2 ms) limitation of the current level due to the nature of the superconductor. In 2019 Moscow utilities installed SuperOx SFCL in the city power grid to test the capabilities of this novel technology. The SFCL became the first SFCL in the Russian energy system and is currently the most powerful SFCL in the world. Modern SFCL uses second-generation high-temperature superconductor (2G HTS). Despite its name, HTS still requires low temperatures of liquid nitrogen for operation. As a result, Moscow SFCL is built with a cryogenic system to provide cooling to the superconductor. The cryogenic system consists of three cryostats that contain a superconductor part and are filled with liquid nitrogen (three phases), three cryocoolers, one water chiller, three cryopumps, and pressure builders. All these components are controlled by an automatic control system. SFCL has been continuously operating on the city grid for over three years. During that period of operation, numerous faults occurred, including cryocooler failure, chiller failure, pump failure, and others (like a cryogenic system power outage). All these faults were eliminated without an SFCL shut down due to the specially designed cryogenic system backups and quick responses of grid operator utilities and the SuperOx crew. The paper will describe in detail the results of SFCL operation and cryogenic system maintenance and what measures were taken to solve and prevent similar faults in the future.

Keywords: superconductivity, current limiter, SFCL, HTS, utilities, cryogenics

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Authors: Kuo-Cheng Liu

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In the perceptual image coding, the objective is to shape the coding distortion such that the amplitude of distortion does not exceed the error visibility threshold, or to remove perceptually redundant signals from the image. While most researches focus on color image coding, the perceptual-based quantizer developed for luminance signals are always directly applied to chrominance signals such that the color image compression methods are inefficient. In this paper, the internal generative mechanism is integrated into the design of a color image compression method. The internal generative mechanism working model based on the structure-based spatial masking is used to assess the subjective distortion visibility thresholds that are visually consistent to human eyes better. The estimation method of structure-based distortion visibility thresholds for color components is further presented in a locally adaptive way to design quantization process in the wavelet color image compression scheme. Since the lowest subband coefficient matrix of images in the wavelet domain preserves the local property of images in the spatial domain, the error visibility threshold inherent in each coefficient of the lowest subband for each color component is estimated by using the proposed spatial error visibility threshold assessment. The threshold inherent in each coefficient of other subbands for each color component is then estimated in a local adaptive fashion based on the distortion energy allocation. By considering that the error visibility thresholds are estimated using predicting and reconstructed signals of the color image, the coding scheme incorporated with locally adaptive perceptual color quantizer does not require side information. Experimental results show that the entropies of three color components obtained by using proposed IGM-based color image compression scheme are lower than that obtained by using the existing color image compression method at perceptually lossless visual quality.

Keywords: internal generative mechanism, structure-based spatial masking, visibility threshold, wavelet domain

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Authors: Danar Agus Susanto, Hermawan Febriansyah, Meilinda Ayundyahrini

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The availability of spring water to meet people demand is often a problem, especially in tropical areas with very limited surface water sources, or very deep underground water. Although the technology and equipment of pumping system are available and easy to obtain, but in remote areas, the availability of pumping system is difficult, due to the unavailability of fuel or the lack of electricity. Solar Water Pumping System (SWPS) became one of the alternatives that can overcome these obstacles. In the tropical country, sunlight can be obtained throughout the year, even in remote areas. SWPS were already widely built in Indonesia, but many encounter problems during operations, such as decreased of efficiency; pump damaged, damaged of controllers or inverters, and inappropriate photovoltaic performance. In 2011, International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) issued the IEC standard 62253:2011 titled Photovoltaic pumping systems - Design qualification and performance measurements. This standard establishes design qualifications and performance measurements related to the product of a solar water pumping system. National Standardization Agency of Indonesia (BSN) as the national standardization body in Indonesia, has not set the standard related to solar water pumping system. This research to study operational procedures of SWPS by adopting of IEC Standard 62253:2011 to be Indonesia Standard (SNI). This research used literature study and field observation for installed SWPS in Indonesia. Based on the results of research on SWPS already installed in Indonesia, IEC 62253: 2011 standard can improve efficiency and reduce operational failure of SWPS. SWPS installed in Indonesia still has GAP of 51% against parameters in IEC standard 62253: 2011. The biggest factor not being met is related to operating and maintenance handbooks for personnel that included operation and repair procedures. This may result in operator ignorance in installing, operating and maintaining the system. The Photovoltaic (PV) was also the most non-compliance factor of 71%, although there are 22 Indonesia Standard (SNI) for PV (modules, installation, testing, and construction). These research samples (installers, manufacturers/distributors, and experts) agreed on the parameter in the IEC standard 62253: 2011 able to improve the quality of SWPS in Indonesia. Recommendations of this study, that is required the adoption of IEC standard 62253:2011 into SNI to support the development of SWPS for remote areas in Indonesia.

Keywords: efficiency, inappropriate installation, remote areas, solar water pumping system, standard

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: neural network, travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, traffic resource allocation

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Authors: Aya Al Masri, Stefaan Carpentier, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, an accurate calculation of the patient skin-dose mapping is essential. For most machines, the 'Dose Area Product (DAP)' and fluoroscopy time are the only information available for the operator. These two parameters are a very poor indicator of the peak skin dose. We developed a mathematical model that reconstructs the magnitude (delivered dose), shape, and localization of each irradiation field on the patient skin. In case of critical dose exceeding, the system generates warning alerts. We present the results of its comparison with clinical studies. Materials and methods: Two series of comparison of the skin-dose mapping of our mathematical model with clinical studies were performed: 1. At a first time, clinical tests were performed on patient phantoms. Gafchromic films were placed on the table of the IR machine under of PMMA plates (thickness = 20 cm) that simulate the patient. After irradiation, the film darkening is proportional to the radiation dose received by the patient's back and reflects the shape of the X-ray field. After film scanning and analysis, the exact dose value can be obtained at each point of the mapping. Four experimentation were performed, constituting a total of 34 acquisition incidences including all possible exposure configurations. 2. At a second time, clinical trials were launched on real patients during real 'Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)' procedures for a total of 80 cases. Gafchromic films were placed at the back of patients. We performed comparisons on the dose values, as well as the distribution, and the shape of irradiation fields between the skin dose mapping of our mathematical model and Gafchromic films. Results: The comparison between the dose values shows a difference less than 15%. Moreover, our model shows a very good geometric accuracy: all fields have the same shape, size and location (uncertainty < 5%). Conclusion: This study shows that our model is a reliable tool to warn physicians when a high radiation dose is reached. Thus, deterministic effects can be avoided.

Keywords: clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, mathematical model, patient's skin-dose mapping.

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Authors: Debit Datta, Jeffrey J. Coleman, Scott A. Enebak, Lori G. Eckhardt

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Pinus taeda, commonly known as loblolly pine, is a crucial timber species native to the southeastern USA. An emerging problem has been encountered for the past few years, which is better to be known as loblolly pine needle defoliation (LPND), which is threatening the ecological health of southeastern forests and economic vitality of the region’s timber industry. Currently, more than 1000 hectares of loblolly plantations in Alabama are affected with similar symptoms and have created concern among southeast landowners and forest managers. However, it is still uncertain whether LPND results from one or the combination of several fungal pathogens. Therefore, the objectives of the study were to identify and characterize the fungi associated with LPND in the southeastern USA and document the damage being done to loblolly pine as a result of repeated defoliation. Identification of fungi was confirmed using classical morphological methods (microscopic examination of the infected needles), conventional and species-specific priming (SSPP) PCR, and ITS sequencing. To date, 17 species of fungi, either cultured from pine needles or formed fruiting bodies on pine needles, were identified based on morphology and genetic sequence data. Among them, brown-spot pathogen Lecanostica acicola has been frequently recovered from pine needles in both spring and summer. Moreover, Ophistomatoid fungi such as Leptographium procerum, L. terebrantis are associated with pine decline have also been recovered from root samples of the infected stands. Trees have been increasingly and repeatedly chlorotic and defoliated from 2019 to 2020. Based on morphological observations and molecular data, emerging loblolly pine needle defoliation is due in larger part to the brown-spot pathogen L. acoicola followed by pine decline pathogens L. procerum and L. terebrantis. Root pathogens were suspected to emerge later, and their cumulative effects contribute to the widespread mortality of the trees. It is more likely that longer wet spring and warmer temperatures are favorable to disease development and may be important in the disease ecology of LPND. Therefore, the outbreak of the disease is assumed to be expanded over a large geographical area in a changing climatic condition.

Keywords: brown-spot fungi, emerging disease, defoliation, loblolly pine

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Authors: Satwik Majumder, Dongyun Jung, Jennifer Ronholm, Saji George

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Bovine mastitis is the most common infectious disease in dairy cattle, with major economic implications for the dairy industry worldwide. Continuous monitoring for the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among bacterial isolates from dairy farms is vital not only for animal husbandry but also for public health. In this study, the prevalence of AMR in 113 Escherichia coli isolates from cases of bovine clinical mastitis in Canada was investigated. Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion test with 18 antibiotics and microdilution method with three heavy metals (copper, zinc, and silver) was performed to determine the antibiotic and heavy-metal susceptibility. Resistant strains were assessed for efflux and ß-lactamase activities besides assessing biofilm formation and hemolysis. Whole-genome sequences for each of the isolates were examined to detect the presence of genes corresponding to the observed AMR and virulence factors. Phenotypic analysis revealed that 32 isolates were resistant to one or more antibiotics, and 107 showed resistance against at least one heavy metal. Quinolones and silver were the most efficient against the tested isolates. Among the AMR isolates, AcrAB-TolC efflux activity and ß-lactamase enzyme activities were detected in 13 and 14 isolates, respectively. All isolates produced biofilm but with different capacities, and 33 isolates showed α-hemolysin activity. A positive correlation (Pearson r = +0.89) between efflux pump activity and quantity of biofilm was observed. Genes associated with aggregation, adhesion, cyclic di-GMP, quorum sensing were detected in the AMR isolates, corroborating phenotype observations. This investigation showed the prevalence of AMR in E. coli isolates from bovine clinical mastitis. The results also suggest the inadequacy of antimicrobials with a single mode of action to curtail AMR bacteria with multiple mechanisms of resistance and virulence factors. Therefore, it calls for combinatorial therapy for the effective management of AMR infections in dairy farms and combats its potential transmission to the food supply chain through milk and dairy products.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, E. coli, bovine mastitis, antibiotics, heavy-metals, efflux pump, ß-lactamase enzyme, biofilm, whole-genome sequencing

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Authors: David Krejci, Tony Schönherr, Quirin Koch, Valentin Hugonnaud, Lou Grimaud, Alexander Reissner, Bernhard Seifert

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In 2018 the NANO thruster became the first Field Emission Electric Propulsion (FEEP) system ever to be verified in space in an In-Orbit Demonstration mission conducted together with Fotec. Since then, 160 additional ENPULSION NANO propulsion systems have been deployed in orbit on 73 different spacecraft across multiple customers and missions. These missions included a variety of different satellite bus sizes ranging from 3U Cubesats to >100kg buses, and different orbits in Low Earth Orbit and Geostationary Earth orbit, providing an abundance of on orbit data for statistical analysis. This large-scale industrialization and flight heritage allows for a holistic way of gathering data from testing, integration and operational phases, deriving lessons learnt over a variety of different mission types, operator approaches, use cases and environments. Based on these lessons learnt a new generation of propulsion systems is developed, addressing key findings from the large NANO heritage and adding new capabilities, including increased resilience, thrust vector steering and increased power and thrust level. Some of these successor products have already been validated in orbit, including the MICRO R3 and the NANO AR3. While the MICRO R3 features increased power and thrust level, the NANO AR3 is a successor of the heritage NANO thruster with added thrust vectoring capability. 5 NANO AR3 have been launched to date on two different spacecraft. This work presents flight telemetry data of ENPULSION NANO systems and onorbit statistical data of the ENPULSION NANO as well as lessons learnt during onorbit operations, customer assembly, integration and testing support and ground test campaigns conducted at different facilities. We discuss how transfer of lessons learnt and operational improvement across independent missions across customers has been accomplished. Building on these learnings and exhaustive heritage, we present the design of the new generation of propulsion systems that increase the power and thrust level of FEEP systems to address larger spacecraft buses.

Keywords: FEEP, field emission electric propulsion, electric propulsion, flight heritage

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Varun Raman

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The Corrective maintenance of components and systems is a problem plaguing almost every industry in the world today. Train operators’ and the maintenance repair and overhaul subsidiary of the Dutch railway company is also facing this problem. A considerable portion of the maintenance activities carried out by the company are unscheduled. This, in turn, severely stresses and stretches the workforce and resources available. One possible solution is to have a robust preventive maintenance plan. The other possible solution is to plan maintenance based on real-time data obtained from sensor-based ‘Health and Usage Monitoring Systems.’ The former has been investigated in this paper. The preventive maintenance model developed for train operator will subsequently be extended, to tackle the unscheduled maintenance problem also affecting the aerospace industry. The extension of the model to the aerospace sector will be dealt with in the second part of the research, and it would, in turn, validate the soundness of the model developed. Thus, there are distinct areas that will be addressed in this paper, including the mathematical modelling of preventive maintenance and optimization based on cost and system availability. The results of this research will help an organization to choose the right maintenance strategy, allowing it to save considerable sums of money as opposed to overspending under the guise of maintaining high asset availability. The concept of delay time modelling was used to address the practical problem of unscheduled maintenance in this paper. The delay time modelling can be used to help with support planning for a given asset. The model was run using MATLAB, and the results are shown that the ideal inspection intervals computed using the extended from a minimal cost perspective were 29 days, and from a minimum downtime, perspective was 14 days. Risk matrix integration was constructed to represent the risk in terms of the probability of a fault leading to breakdown maintenance and its consequences in terms of maintenance cost. Thus, the choice of an optimal inspection interval of 29 days, resulted in a cost of approximately 50 Euros and the corresponding value of b(T) was 0.011. These values ensure that the risk associated with component X being maintained at an inspection interval of 29 days is more than acceptable. Thus, a switch in maintenance frequency from 90 days to 29 days would be optimal from the point of view of cost, downtime and risk.

Keywords: delay time modelling, unscheduled maintenance, reliability, maintainability, availability

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Authors: Vinda B. Manurung, Laila Warkhaida, David Hutabarat, Sentanu Wisnuwardhana, Christovik Simatupang, Dhani Sanjaya, Ashadi, Redha B. Putra, Kiki Yustendi

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The geothermal drilling environment presents many obstacles that have limited the use of directional drilling and logging-while-drilling (LWD) technologies, such as borehole washout, mud losses, severe vibration, and high temperature. The case study presented in this paper demonstrates a practice to enhance data logging in geothermal drilling by deploying advanced telemetry and LWD technologies. This operation is aiming continuous improvement in geothermal drilling operations. The case study covers a 12.25-in. hole section of well XX-05 in Pad XX of the Sorik Marapi Geothermal Field. LWD string consists of electromagnetic (EM) telemetry, pressure while drilling (PWD), vibration (DDSr), and acoustic calliper (ACAL). Through this tool configuration, the operator acquired drilling mechanics and caliper logs in real-time and recorded mode, enabling effective monitoring of wellbore stability. Throughout the real-time acquisition, EM-PPM telemetry had provided a three times faster data rate to the surface unit. With the integration of Caliper data and Drilling mechanics data (vibration and ECD -equivalent circulating density), the borehole conditions were more visible to the directional driller, allowing for better control of drilling parameters to minimize vibration and achieve optimum hole cleaning in washed-out or tight formation sequences. After reaching well TD, the recorded data from the caliper sensor indicated an average of 8.6% washout for the entire 12.25-in. interval. Washout intervals were compared with loss occurrence, showing potential for the caliper to be used as an indirect indicator of fractured intervals and validating fault trend prognosis. This LWD case study has given added value in geothermal borehole characterization for both drilling operation and subsurface. Identified challenges while running LWD in this geothermal environment need to be addressed for future improvements, such as the effect of tool eccentricity and the impact of vibration. A perusal of both real-time and recorded drilling mechanics and caliper data has opened various possibilities for maximizing sensor usage in future wells.

Keywords: geothermal drilling, geothermal formation, geothermal technologies, logging-while-drilling, vibration, caliper, case study

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Authors: Mlondi Ndovela

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Globally, the manufacturing employment has been declining and the South African manufacturing sector experiences the very same trend. Despite the commonality between the global and South African manufacturing trend, there is an understanding that local areas provide distinct contributions to the provincial/national economy. Therefore, the growth/decline of a particular manufacturing division in one local area may not be evident in another area since economic performances vary from region to region. In view of the above, the study employed the Esteban-Marquillas model of shift-share analysis (SSA) to conduct an empirical analysis of manufacturing employment performance at uMhlathuze Local Municipality in the KwaZulu-Natal province. The study set out two objectives; those are, to quantify uMhlathuze manufacturing jobs that are attributed to the provincial manufacturing employment trends and identify manufacturing divisions are growing/declining in terms of employment. To achieve these objectives, the study sampled manufacturing employment data from 2010 to 2017 and this data was categorised into ten manufacturing divisions. Furthermore, the Esteban-Marquillas model calculated manufacturing employment in terms of two effects, namely; provincial growth effect (PGE) and industrial mix effect (IME). The results show that even though uMhlathuze manufacturing sector has a positive PGE (+230), the municipality performed poorly in terms of IME (-291). A further analysis included other economic sectors of the municipality to draw employment performance comparison and the study found that agriculture; construction; trade, catering and accommodation; and transport, storage and communication, performed well above manufacturing sector in terms of PGE (+826) and IME (+532). This suggests that uMhlathuze manufacturing sector is not necessarily declining; however, other economic sectors are growing faster and bigger than it is, therefore, reducing the employment share of the manufacturing sector. To promote manufacturing growth from a policy standpoint, the government could create favourable macroeconomic policies such as import substitution policies and support labour-intensive manufacturing divisions. As a result, these macroeconomic policies can help to protect local manufacturing firms and stimulate the growth of manufacturing employment.

Keywords: allocation effect, Esteban-Marquillas model, manufacturing employment, regional competitive effect, shift-share analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 127