Search results for: predictive index

Authors: Qiuhu Shao

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Community home-based care service system, which is based on the family pension, supported by community pension and supplied by institutions pension, is an effective pension system to solve the current situation of China's accelerated aging. However, due to the fundamental realities of our country, the government is not able to bear the unilateral supply of the old-age service of the community. Therefore, based on the theory of welfare pluralism, the participation of social organizations in the home-based care service center has become an important part of the diversified supply of the old-age service for the elderly. Meanwhile, the home-based care service industry is still in the early stage, the management is relatively rough, which resulted in a large number of social resources waste. Thus, scientific, objective and long-term implementation is needed for social organizations to participate in home-based care services to guide its performance management. In order to realize the design of the performance management system, the author has done a research work that clarifies the research status of social organization's participation in home-based care service. Relevant theories such as welfare pluralism, community care theory, and performance management theory have been used to demonstrate the feasibility of data envelopment analysis method in social organization performance research. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the operation mode of the home-based care service center, and hackles the national as well as local documents, standards and norms related to the development of the home-based care industry, particularly studies those documents in Nanjing. Based on this, the paper designed a set of performance management PDCA system for home-based care service center in Nanjing and clarified each step of the system in detail. Subsequently, the research methods of performance evaluation and performance management and feedback, which are two core steps of performance management have been compared and screened in order to establish the overall framework of the performance management system of the home-based care service center. Through a large number of research, the paper summarized and analyzed the characteristics of the home-based care service center. Based on the research results, combined with the practice of the industry development in Nanjing, the paper puts forward a targeted performance evaluation index system of home-based care service center in Nanjing. Finally, the paper evaluated and sub-filed the performance of 186 home-based care service centers in Nanjing and then designed the performance optimization direction and performance improvement path based on the results. This study constructs the index system of performance evaluation of home-based care service and makes the index detailed to the implementation level, and constructs the evaluation index system which can be applied directly. Meanwhile, the quantitative evaluation of social organizations participating in the home-based care service changed the subjective impression in the previous practice of evaluation.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, home-based care, performance management, social organization

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Authors: Rupas Kumar M., Saravana Kumar M., Amarendra Kumar S., Likhita Komal V., Sree Deepthi M.

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The demand for water is increasing at an alarming rate due to rapid urbanization and increase in population. Due to freshwater scarcity, Groundwater became the necessary source of potable water to major parts of the world. This problem of freshwater scarcity and groundwater dependency is very severe particularly in developing countries and overpopulated regions like India. The present study aimed at evaluating the Ground Water Quality Index (GWQI), which represents overall quality of water at certain location and time based on water quality parameters. To evaluate the GWQI, sixteen water quality parameters have been considered viz. colour, pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, total hardness, alkalinity, calcium, magnesium, sodium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, iron, manganese and fluorides. The groundwater samples are collected from Kadapa City in Andhra Pradesh, India and subjected to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The high value of GWQI has been found to be mainly from higher values of total dissolved solids, electrical conductivity, turbidity, alkalinity, hardness, and fluorides. in the present study, citrus limetta (sweet lemon) peel powder has used as a coagulant and GWQI values are recorded in different concentrations to improve GWQI. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to determine the effect of coagulant dosage, mixing speed and stirring time on GWQI. The research found the maximum percentage improvement in GWQI values are obtained when the coagulant dosage is 100ppm, mixing speed is 100 rpm and stirring time is 10 mins. Alum is also used as a coagulant aid and the optimal ratio of citrus limetta and alum is identified as 3:2 which resulted in best GWQI value. The present study proposes Citrus limetta peel powder as a potential natural coagulant to treat Groundwater and to improve GWQI.

Keywords: alum, Citrus limetta, ground water quality index, physicochemical analysis

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Authors: Apu Kumar Saha, Mrinmoy Majumder

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The increase in the concentration of Green House gases all over the World has induced global warming phenomena whereby the average temperature of the world has aggravated to impact the pattern of climate in different regions. The frequency of extreme event has increased, early onset of season and change in an average amount of rainfall all are engrossing the conclusion that normal pattern of climate is changing. Sophisticated and complex models are prepared to estimate the future situation of the climate in different zones of the Earth. As hydro-energy is directly related to climatic parameters like rainfall and evaporation such energy resources will have to sustain the onset of the climatic abnormalities. The present investigation has tried to assess the impact of climatic abnormalities upon hydropower potential of different regions of the World. In this regard multi-criteria, decision making, and the neural network is used to predict the impact of the change cognitively by an index. The results from the study show that hydro-energy potential of Asian region is mostly vulnerable with respect to other regions of the world. The model results also encourage further application of the index to analyze the impact of climate change on the potential of hydro-energy.

Keywords: hydro-energy potential, neural networks, multi criteria decision analysis, environmental and ecological engineering

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Authors: Altayeb Qasem, Mousa Bani Baker, Amani Nawafleh

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The complexity of the sand-bentonite liner barrier system calls for an adequate model that reflects the conditions depending on the barrier materials and the characteristics of the permeates which lead to hydraulic conductivity changes when liners infiltrated with polar, no-polar, miscible and immiscible liquids. This paper is dedicated to developing a model for evaluating the hydraulic conductivity in the form of a simple indicator for the compatibility of the liner versus leachate. Based on two liner compositions (95% sand: 5% bentonite; and 90% sand: 10% bentonite), two pressures (40 kPa and 100 kPa), and three leachates: water, ethanol and biofuel. Two characteristics of the leacahtes were used: viscosity of permeate and its octanol-water partitioning coefficient (Kow). Three characteristics of the liners mixtures were evaluated which had impact on the hydraulic conductivity of the liner system: the initial content of bentonite (%), the free swelling index, and the shrinkage limit of the initial liner’s mixture. Engineers can use this modest tool to predict a potential liner failure in sand-bentonite barriers.

Keywords: liner performance, sand-bentonite barriers, viscosity, free swelling index, shrinkage limit, octanol-water partitioning coefficient, hydraulic conductivity, theoretical modeling

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Authors: Mohamed Zaher Bouaziz

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Our study examines the Ohlson Model, which links a company's market value to its equity and net earnings, in the context of the evolution of the Canadian accounting model, characterized by more extensive use of fair value and a broader measure of performance after IFRS adoption. Our hypothesis is that if equity is reported at its fair value, this valuation is closely linked to market capitalization, so the weight of earnings weakens or even disappears in the Ohlson Model. Drawing on Canada's adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), our results support our hypothesis that equity appears to include most of the relevant information for investors, while earnings have become less important. However, the predictive power of earnings does not disappear.

Keywords: fair value accounting, Ohlson model, IFRS adoption, value-relevance of equity and earnings

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Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

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Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

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Authors: Surendra Kumar Patel

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Disability is not just a health problem; it is a complex phenomenon, reflecting the interaction between features of a person’s age and physiology. Population ageing is a major demographic issue for India in the 21st century. Older population of India constituted 8% of total population, while 5.19% has affected by disability of older age group. Objective of the present research paper is to examine the state wise differential in disability among 60+ population and to access the health care of disabled population especially the 60+ disabled persons. The data sources of the present paper are census 2001 and 2011. For analyzing the state wise differentials by disability types and comparative advantage of data, rate, ratio, and percentage have been used. The Standardized Index of Diversity of Disability (SIDD) studies differential and diversity in disability. The results show that there are 5.19% persons have disability among 60+ population and sex differential not very significant, as it is 5.3 % of male and 5.05% in female in India but place of residence shows significant variation from 2001 to 2011 census. There is huge diversity in disability prevalence among 60+ in India, highest in Sikkim followed by Rajasthan, approximately, they comprise 11%, and the lowest found in Tamil Nadu as 2.53%. This huge gap in prevalence percentage shows the health care needs of highly prevailing states.

Keywords: disability, Standardized Index of Diversity of Disability (SIDD), differential and diversity in disability, 60+ population

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Authors: Jeeja Menon, M. S. Ravikumar

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With the advent of green technology and the concept of zero energy buildings, there is an emerging trend in the utilization of indigenous materials like soil as a construction material. However, fine soils like clays and sand have undesirable properties and stabilization of these soils is essential before it is used to develop a building unit. Eco cement or Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS), a waste byproduct formed during the manufacture of iron has cementitious properties and has the potential of replacing cement which is the most common stabilizer used for improving the geotechnical properties of soil. This paper highlights the salient observations obtained by the investigations into the effect of GGBS as a stabilizer for clayey sand. The index and engineering properties of the soil on the addition of different percentages (0%, 2%, 4%, 5% & 6% of the dry weight of the soil) of GGBS are tested to arrive at the optimum binder content. The criteria chosen for evaluation are the unconfined compressive strength values of different soil- binder composition. The test results indicate that there are significant strength improvements by the addition of GGBS in the soil, and the optimum GGBS content was determined as 5%. Moreover, utilizing waste binders for developing an ecofriendly, less energy induced building units as well as for stabilizing soil will also contribute to the solid waste management, which is the current environmental crisis of the world.

Keywords: eco cement, GGBS, index properties, stabilization, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Esam Jassim

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Industries using conventional fossil fuels have an interest in better understanding the mechanism of particulate formation during combustion since such is responsible for emission of undesired inorganic elements that directly impact the atmospheric pollution level. Fine and ultrafine particulates have tendency to escape the flue gas cleaning devices to the atmosphere. They also preferentially collect on surfaces in power systems resulting in ascending in corrosion inclination, descending in the heat transfer thermal unit, and severe impact on human health. This adverseness manifests particularly in the regions of world where coal is the dominated source of energy for consumption. This study highlights the behavior of calcium transformation as mineral grains verses organically associated inorganic components during pulverized coal combustion. The influence of existing type of calcium on the coarse, fine and ultrafine mode formation mechanisms is also presented. The impact of two sub-bituminous coals on particle size and calcium composition evolution during combustion is to be assessed. Three mixed blends named Blends 1, 2, and 3 are selected according to the ration of coal A to coal B by weight. Calcium percentage in original coal increases as going from Blend 1 to 3. A mathematical model and a new approach of describing constituent distribution are proposed. Analysis of experiments of calcium distribution in ash is also modeled using Poisson distribution. A novel parameter, called elemental index λ, is introduced as a measuring factor of element distribution. Results show that calcium in ash that originally in coal as mineral grains has index of 17, whereas organically associated calcium transformed to fly ash shown to be best described when elemental index λ is 7. As an alkaline-earth element, calcium is considered the fundamental element responsible for boiler deficiency since it is the major player in the mechanism of ash slagging process. The mechanism of particle size distribution and mineral species of ash particles are presented using CCSEM and size-segregated ash characteristics. Conclusions are drawn from the analysis of pulverized coal ash generated from a utility-scale boiler.

Keywords: coal combustion, inorganic element, calcium evolution, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Cemile Kütmeç Yilmaz, Güler Duru Asiret, Gulcan Bagcivan

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Carer’s Assessment of Satisfaction Index (CASI-TR). The study was conducted between the dates of June 2016 and September 2017 at the Training and Research Hospital of Aksaray University with the caregiving family members of the inpatients with chronic diseases. For this study, the sample size was calculated as at least 10 individuals for each item (item number (30)X10=300). The study sample included 300 caregiving family members, who provided primer care for at least three months for a patient (who had at least one chronic disease and received inpatient treatment in general internal medicine and palliative care units). Data were collected by using a demographic questionnaire and CASI-TR. Descriptive statistics, and psychometric tests were used for the data analysis. Of those caregivers, 76.7% were female, 86.3% were 65 years old and below, 43.7% were primary school graduates, 87% were married, 86% were not working, 66.3% were housewives, and 60.3% defined their income status as having an income covering one’s expenses. Care recipients often had problems in terms of walking, sleep, balance, feeding and urinary incontinence. The Cronbach Alpha value calculated for the CASI-TR (30 items) was 0,949. Internal consistency coefficients calculated for subscales were: 0.922 for the subscale of ‘caregiver satisfaction related to care recipient’, 0.875 for the subscale of ‘caregiver satisfaction related to themselves’, and 0.723 for the subscale of ‘dynamics of interpersonal relations’. Factor analysis revealed that three factors accounted for 57.67% of the total variance, with an eigenvalue of >1. assessed in terms of significance, we saw that the items came together in a significant manner. The factor load of the items were between 0.311 and 0.874. These results show that the CASI-TR is a valid and reliable scale. The adoption of the translated CASI in Turkey is found reliable and valid to assessing the satisfaction of caregivers. CASI-TR can be used easily in clinics or house visits by nurses and other health professionals for assessing caregiver satisfaction from caregiving.

Keywords: carer’s assessment of satisfaction index, caregiver, validity, reliability

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Authors: B. S. Premalatha, Kausalya Sahani

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Background: Voice is multidimensional which convey emotion, feelings, and communication. Voice disorders have an adverse effect on the physical, emotional and functional domains of an individual. Self-rating by clients about their voice problem helps the clinicians to plan intervention strategies. Voice handicap index is one such self-rating scale contains 30 questions that quantify the functional, physical and emotional impacts of a voice disorder on a patient’s quality of life. Each subsection has 10 questions. Though adapted and validated versions of VHI are available in other Indian languages but not in Telugu, which is a Dravidian language native to India. It is mainly spoken in Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring states in southern India. Objectives: To adapt and validate the English version of Voice Handicap Index (VHI) into Telugu language and evaluate its internal consistency and clinical validate in Telugu speaking population. Materials: The study carried out in three stages. First stage was a forward translation of English version of VHI, was given to ten experts, who were well proficient in writing and reading Telugu and five speech-language pathologists to translate into Telugu. Second Stage was backward translation where translated version of Telugu was given to a different group of ten experts (who were well proficient in writing and reading Telugu) and five speech-language pathologists who were native Telugu speakers and had good proficiency in Telugu and English. The third stage was an administration of translated version on Telugu to the targeted population. Totally 40 clinical subjects and 40 normal controls served as participants, and each group had 26 males and 14 females’ age range of 20 to 60 years. Clinical group comprised of individuals with laryngectomee with the Tracheoesophageal puncture (n=18), laryngitis (n=11), vocal nodules (n=7) and vocal fold palsy (n=4). Participants were asked to mark of their each experience on a 5 point equal appearing scale (0=never, 1=almost never, 2=sometimes, 3=almost always, 4=always) with a maximum total score of 120. Results: Statistical analysis was made by using SPSS software (22.0.0 Version). Mean, standard deviation and percentage (%) were calculated all the participants for both the groups. Internal consistency of VHI in Telugu was found to be excellent with the consistency scores for all the domains such as physical, emotional and functional are 0.742, 0.934and 0.938. The validity of scores showed a significant difference between clinical population and control group for domains like physical, emotional and functional and total scores. P value found to be less than 0.001( < 0.001). Negative correlation found in age and gender among self-domains such as physical, emotional and functional total scores in dysphonic and control group. Conclusion: The present study indicated that VHI in Telugu is able to discriminate participants having voice pathology from normal populations, which make this as a valid tool to collect information about their voice from the participants.

Keywords: adaptation, Telugu Version, translation, Voice Handicap Index (VHI)

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Authors: L. P. K. Liyanage, N. R. P. Withana, A. L. Sandika

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The purpose of this study was to determine tourist and community perception-based sustainable tourism indicators as well as Human Pressure Index (HPI) and Tourist Activity Index (TAI). Study was carried out in Sinharaja forest which is considered as one of the major eco-tourism destination in Sri Lanka. Data were gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire as well as records from Forest department. Convenient sampling technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point Likert-type scales. Visual portrayal was used for display analyzed data. The study revealed that the host community of the Kudawa gets many benefits from tourism. Also, tourism has caused negative impacts upon the environment and community. The study further revealed the need of proper waste management and involvement of local cultural events for the tourism business in the Kudawa conservation center. The TAI, which accounted to be 1.27 and monthly evolution of HPI revealed that congestion can be occurred in the Sinharaja rainforest during peak season. The results provide useful information to any party involved with tourism planning anywhere, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: Kudawa Conservation Center, Sinharaja World Heritage Rainforest, sustainability indicators, community perception

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Authors: Ikram Kamal, Mohamed Blaghen

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Petroleum hydrocarbons are serious problems and global pollutants in the environment due to their toxicity, carcinogenicity and persistent organic pollutant properties. One of the approaches to enhance biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons is to use biosurfactant. Biosurfactants are amphiphilic biomolecules produced as metabolic by-products from microorganisms they received considerable attention in the field of environmental remediation processes such as bioremediation. Biosurfactants have been considered as a desirable alternative to synthetic surfactants in various applications particularly in the environmental field. In comparison with their synthetic counterparts, biosurfactants have been reported to be less toxic, biodegradable and persistent. In this study we have investigated the potential of bacterial strains collected aseptically from the lagoon Marchika (water and soil) in Nador, Morocco; for the production of biosurfactants. This study also aimed to optimize the biosurfactant production process by changing the variables that influence the type and amount of biosurfactant produced by these microorganisms such as: carbon sources and also other physical and chemical parameters such as temperature and pH. Emulsification index, methylene blue test and thin layer chromatography (TLC) revealed the ability of strains used in this study to produce compounds that could emulsify gasoline. In addition, a HPLC/MS was used to separate and identify different biosurfactants purified.

Keywords: petroleum hydrocarbons, biosurfactants, biodegradation, lagoon marchika, emulsification index

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Authors: Z. E. Battakova , G. Z. Tokmurziyeva, S. Z. Abdrakhmanova, A. A. Akimbaeva, A. A. Adaeva

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Introduction: In the Republic of Kazakhstan few studies have quantified overweight rates among children. Assessment of overweight and obesity in school children based on measured inter country comparable data has not been implemented. In this regard, in a pilot region, Aktobe oblast, prevalence of obesity among school children was studied based on the protocol of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative. Methods: The study was conducted on sample of 800 children of 2-3 grades in September 2014. The anthropometric variables were measured by standardized equipment to calculate body mass index. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was determined for 8 and 9 year old children by gender using WHO growth reference 2007. Results: 21,4% of children aged 8 years old were overweight, and 8,7% were obese. Among 8 year old boys the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 23,7% and 10,6% respectively, among girls 18,9% and 6,7% respectively. The prevalence of overweight was 25,7% and obesity was 10,8% for 9 year old children. 29,6% boys of 9 years of age were overweight and 8,6% were obese respectively.20,9% of 9 year old girls were overweight and 13,4% were obese. Conclusion: Thus, 22,6% of children 8-9 years of age at the study population were overweight and 9,3% obese. The results of the survey demonstrate the need for further study of indicators at the national level for internationally comparable data and actions to tackle childhood obesity epidemic as well as the need for monitoring trends of overweight and obesity among children.

Keywords: 8-9 year old school children, obesity, overweight, body mass index

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Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen

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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination

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Authors: Hadi Abdollahi, Bijan Iraj, Maryam Mirpourian, Behzad Shariatifar

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Background: The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between neck circumferences (NC), as an indicator of upper body obesity, with anthropometric and cardio-metabolic factors among the first degree relatives of diabetes patients. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on first degree relatives of diabetes patients (n = 213). Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and NC were measured. Laboratory data included oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results, high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein, triglyceride (TG) and total cholesterol. Results: There was no difference in NC among different results of OGTT in men or women. Factors including weight, body mass index (BMI), WC and HC were strongly associated with NC in both genders (r = 0.420-0.711). NC was weakly associated with SBP in women (r = 0.195) and moderately with DBP in men (r = 0.314). Regarding lipid profile, HDL and TG were associated with NC only in women (r = −0.268-0.325). Conclusions: NC has a significant correlation with gender and anthropometric variables, including BMI, weight and waist and HCs in both men and women, but it does not differ significantly in patients with different status in OGTT.

Keywords: body mass index, cardiovascular, diabetes, neck circumference, obesity

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Authors: Tamrat Balcha Balla

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Background: Tablets are still the most preferred means of drug delivery. The search for new and improved direct compression tablet excipients is an area of research focus. Taro Boloso-I is a variety of Colocasia esculenta (L. Schott) yielding 67% more than the other varieties (Godare) in Ethiopia. This study aimed to enhance the flowability while keeping the compressibility and compactibility of the pregelatinized Taro Boloso-I starch. Methods: Central composite design was used for the optimization of two factors which were the temperature and duration of pregelatinization against 5 responses. The responses were angle of repose, Hausner ratio, Kawakita compressibility index, mean yield pressure and tablet breaking force. Results and Discussions: An increase in both temperature and time resulted in decrease in the angle of repose. The increase in temperature was shown to decrease the Hausner ratio and to decrease the Kawakita compressibility index. The mean yield pressure was observed to increase with increasing levels of both temperature and time. The pregelatinized (optimized) Taro Boloso-I starch could show desired flow property and compressibility. Conclusions: Pregelatinized Taro Boloso - I starch could be regarded as a potential direct compression excipient in terms of flowability, compressibility and compactibility.

Keywords: starch, compression, pregelatinization, Taro Boloso-I

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Authors: Mokrane Selma

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The shift towards decision making (DM) based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques will change the way in which consumer markets and our societies function. Through AI, predictive analytics is being used by businesses to identify these patterns and major trends with the objective to improve the DM and influence future business outcomes. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. To validate the proposed model, we uses the bank marketing data of 41188 phone calls. The ANN attains 98.93% of accuracy which outperforms other conventional classifiers and confirms that it is credible and valuable approach for telemarketing campaign managers.

Keywords: bank telemarketing, prediction, decision making, artificial intelligence, artificial neural network

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Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

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Authors: Min Wei

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The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: Bikash Ranjan Mishra, Lopamudra D. Satpathy

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In the wake of the phenomenal surge in international business in the last decades or more, both the developed and developing economies around the world are in massive competition to attract more and more FDI flows. While the developed countries have marched ahead in the race, the developing countries, especially those of Asian economies, have followed them at a rapid pace. While most of the previous studies have analysed the role of institutional quality in the promotion of FDI flows in developing countries, very few studies have taken an integrated approach of examining the comprehensive impact of institutional quality, globalization pattern and domestic financial development on FDI flows. In this context, the paper contributes to the literature in two important ways. Firstly, two composite indices of institutional quality and domestic financial development for the Asian countries are constructed in comparison to earlier studies that resort to a single variable for indicating the institutional quality and domestic financial development. Secondly, the impact of these variables on FDI flows through their interaction with geographical region is investigated. The study uses panel data covering the time period of 1996 to 2012 by selecting twenty Asian developing countries by emphasizing the quality of institutions from the geographical regions of eastern, south-eastern, southern and western Asia. Control of corruption, better rule of law, regulatory quality, effectiveness of the government, political stability and voice and accountability are used as indicators of institutional quality. Besides these, the study takes into account the domestic credits in the hands of public, private sectors and in stock markets as domestic financial indicators. First in the specification of model, a factor analysis is performed to reduce the vast determinants, which are highly correlated with each other, to a manageable size. Afterwards, a reduced version of the model is estimated with the extracted factors in the form of index as independent variables along with a set of control variables. It is found that the institutional quality index and index of globalization exert a significant effect on FDI inflows of the host countries; in contrast, the domestic financial index does not seem to play much worthy role. Finally, some robustness tests are performed to make sure that the results are not sensitive to temporal and spatial unobserved heterogeneity. On the basis of the above study, one general inference can be drawn from the policy prescription point of view that the government of these developing countries should strengthen their domestic institution, both financial and non-financial. In addition to these, welfare policies should also target for rapid globalization. If the financial and non-financial institutions of these developing countries become sound and grow more globalized in the economic, social and political domain, then they can appeal to more amounts of FDI inflows that will subsequently result in advancement of these economies.

Keywords: Asian developing economies, FDI, institutional quality, panel data

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Authors: Zeliha Erdogan, Hatice Torcu Koc

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The fish, Sarpa salpa (L.), is one of the main macroherbivores in the Mediterranean. A total of 600 Salema individuals were collected from around Gökçeada, Sea of Northern Aegean, between January 2014 and January 2015 in order to evaluate some information on the biology of the Salema population. For this aim, measurements of the Salema were obtained using a caliper. The age readings were made from otoliths. The population was composed of 6 age classes (I-VI). The total lengths and total weights of sampled fish were determined to be ranged from 12.5 to 33.1 cm and 33.57 to 559.33 g, respectively. Length-weight relationship for all individuals was calculated as W=0.0085*L3.1723, R2=0.9524. Growth parameters were determined as L∞= 35.55cm, k=0.31, t0= -9.2, '=2.60. As the sexual ratio was 1.08:1 (M: F), the Salema population consisted of 51.66% male and 47.5% female individuals. The highest average condition factors were observed for females in May (1.68) and for males in May (1.67). According to gonad somatic index values, the spawning period was determined twice a year in spring (April) and autumn (October). The highest average hepatosomatix index value was observed for all individuals in May and December. It was estimated that total (Z) mortality, natural (M) mortality, and fishing (F) mortality rates were Z=0.44 year-1, M=0.064 year-1 and F=0.38 year-1, respectively. As the exploitation rate was estimated as E=0.86, it can be shown that the Salema stock was highly influenced by overfishing.

Keywords: biology, sarpa salpa, Gökceada, meadows

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Authors: Adriana B. Ribeiro, Camila B. Araujo, Frank L. Bueno, Luiz Eduardo V. Silva, Caroline V. Fortes, Helio C. Salgado, Rubens Fazan Jr., Claudia H. L. da Silva

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Denture-related stomatitis (DRS) has recently been associated with deleterious cardiovascular effects, including hypertension. This study evaluated salivary parameters, blood pressure (BP) and heart rate variability (HRV), before and after DRS treatment in edentulous patients (n=14). Collection of unstimulated and stimulated saliva, as well as blood pressure (BP) measurements and electrocardiogram recordings were performed before and after 10 days of DRS treatment. The salivary flow (mL/min) was found similar at both times while pH was smaller (more neutral) after treatment (7.3 ± 2.2 vs. 7.1 ± 0.24). Systolic BP (mmHg) showed a trend, but not a significant reduction after DRS treatment (158 ± 25.68 vs. 148 ± 16,72, p=0,062) while diastolic BP was found similar in both times (86 ± 13.93 and 84 ± 9.38). Overall HRV, measured by standard deviation of RR intervals was not affected by DRS treatment (24 ± 4 vs 18 ± 2 ms), but differences of successive RR intervals (an index of parasympathetic cardiac modulation) increased after the treatment (26 ± 4 vs 19 ± 2 ms). Moreover, another index of vagal modulation of the heart, the power of RR interval spectra at high-frequency, was also markedly higher after DRS treatment (236 ± 63 vs 135 ± 32 ms²). Such findings strongly suggest that DRS is linked to an autonomic imbalance with sympathetic overactivity, which is markedly deleterious, increasing cardiovascular risk and the incidence of diseases such as hypertension. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by FAPESP, CNPq.

Keywords: biofilm, denture stomatitis, HRV, blood pressure

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Authors: Silvia A. Magalhaes, Vasco P. De Freitas, Jose L. Alexandre

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Most of the European literature concerning energy efficiency and thermal comfort of dwellings assumes permanent heating and focuses on energy-saving measures. European National regulations are designed for those permanent comfort conditions. On the other hand, very few studies focus on the effect of the improvement measures in comfort reduction, for free-floating conditions or intermittent heating, in fuel poverty vulnerable countries. In Portugal, only 21% of the household energy consumptions (and 10% of the cost) are spent in space heating, while, on average European bills, this value rises to 67%. The mild climate, but mainly fuel poverty and cultural background, justifies these low heating practices. This study proposes a “passive discomfort” index definition, considering free-floating temperatures or with intermittent heating profiles (more realistic conditions), putting the focus on comfort rather than energy consumption (which is low for these countries). The aim is to compare both energy (regarding the legal framework of national regulation) and comfort (considering realistic conditions of use) to identify some correlation. It was developed an experimental campaign of indoor thermal conditions in a 19th building located in Porto with several apartments. One dwelling was chosen as a case study to carry out a sensitivity analysis. The results are discussed comparing both theoretical energy consumption (energy rates from national regulation) and discomfort (new index defined), for different insulation thicknesses, orientations, and intermittent heating profiles. The results show that the different passive options (walls insulation and glazing options) have a small impact on winter discomfort, which is always high for low heating profiles. Moreover, it was shown that the insulation thickness on walls has no influence, and the minimum insulation thickness considered is enough to achieve the same impact on discomfort reduction. Plus, for these low heating profiles, other conditions are critical, as the orientation. Finally, there isn’t an unequivocal relation between the energy label and the discomfort index. These and other results are surprising when compared with the most usual approaches, which assume permanent heating.

Keywords: dwellings in historical buildings, low-heating countries, mild climates, thermal comfort

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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This study investigated the attention problems with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). Two thousand eight hundred and ninety-four adolescents were surveyed by using a stratified sampling method. We examined the relationships between relevant background variables and attention problems. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the data. Relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, age, grade and the number of close friends were included in this study as predictive variables. The analysis results indicated that educational environments and extracurricular activities are important factors which influence students’ attention problems.

Keywords: adolescents, ASEBA, attention problems, educational environments, stratified sampling

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Authors: Mili Dutta, Lokender Prashad

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Introduction: Population ageing is a phenomenon that can be observed around the globe. The health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a measurement of health status of an individual, and it describes the effect of physical and mental health disorders on the well-being of a person. The present study is aimed to describe the influence of socio-economic characteristics of elderly on their health-related quality of life in India. Methods: EQ-5D instrument and population-based EQ-5D index score has been measured to access the HRQOL among elderly. Present study utilized the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) data which was conducted in 2007 in India. Multiple Logistic Regression model and Multivariate Linear Regression model has been employed. Result: In the present study, it was found that the female are more likely to have problems in mobility (OR=1.41, 95% Cl: 1.14 to 1.74), self-care (OR=1.26, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.56) and pain or discomfort (OR=1.50, 95% Cl: 1.16 to 1.94). Elderly residing in rural area are more likely to have problems in pain/discomfort (OR=1.28, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.62). More older and non-working elderly are more likely whereas higher educated and highest wealth quintile elderly are less likely to have problems in all the dimensions of EQ-5D viz. mobility, self-care, usual activity, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The present study has also shown that oldest old people, residing in rural area and currently not working elderly are more likely to report low EQ-5D index score whereas elderly with high education level and high wealth quintile are more likely to report high EQ-5D index score than their counterparts. Conclusion: The present study has found EQ-5D instrument as the valid measure for assessing the HRQOL of elderly in India. The study indicates socio-economic characteristics of elderly such as female, more older people, residing in rural area, non-educated, poor and currently non-working as the major risk groups of having poor HRQOL in India. Findings of the study will be helpful for the programmes and policy makers, researchers, academician and social workers who are working in the field of ageing.

Keywords: ageing, HRQOL, India, EQ-5D, SAGE, socio-economic characteristics

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Authors: Karim Saeidi

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One of the most important pests in the warehouses is the flour beetle, Tribolium confusum Jacquelin du Val (Col.: Tenebrionidae). Regarding the high degree of damage of stored product pests and dangerous effects of the chemical control using plant extracts and their components are some of the best approaches to control these pests. Antifeedant activity of plant extracts from Lavandula angustifolia Mill and Zataria multiflora Boiss using hydro-distillation were tested against the flour beetle, Tribolium confusum Jacquelin du Val. The nutritional indices: relative growth rate (RGR), relative consumption rate (RCR), the efficiency of conversion of ingested food (ECI), and feeding deterrence index (FDI) were measured for adult insects. Treatments were evaluated using a flour disk bioassay in the dark; at 25±1ᵒC and 60±5% R. H. Concentrations of 0, 0.1, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, and 2 μl/disk were prepared from each essential oil. After 72 h, nutritional indices were calculated. L. angustifolia oils were more effective than Z. multiflora oils by significantly decreasing the RGR, RCR, and ECI. Feeding deterrence index (FDI) of L. angustifolia essential oil was increased significantly as essential oil concentration increased. The essential oil of L. angustifolia was more effective on FDI than Z. multiflora in some concentration.

Keywords: essential oil, nutritional indices, Tribolium confusum

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Authors: Mustafa Yıldız, Ali Ulvi Uzer, Murat Olgun

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In this study, geotechnical and mineralogical properties of gypsum containing clay basis which form the ground of Second Organized Industrial Zone in Konya province have been researched through comprehensive field and laboratory experiments. Although sufficient geotechnical research has not been performed yet, an intensive structuring in the region continues at present. The study area consists of mid-lake sediments formed by gypsum containing soft silt-clay basis which evolves to a large area. To determine the soil profile and geotechnical specifications; 18 drilling holes were opened and disturbed / undisturbed soil samples have been taken through shelby tubes within 1.5m intervals. Tests have been performed on these samples to designate the index and strength properties of soil. Besides, at all drilling holes Standart Penetration Tests have been done within 1.5m intervals. For the purpose of determining the mineralogical characteristics of the soil; all rock and X-RD analysis have been carried out on 6 samples which were taken from various depths through the soil profile. Strength and compressibility characteristics of the soil were defined with correlations using laboratory and field test results. Unconfined compressive strength, undrained cohesion, compression index varies between 16 kN/m2 and 405.4 kN/m2, 6.5 kN/m2 and 72 kN/m2, 0.066 and 0.864, respectively.

Keywords: Konya second organized industrial region, strength, compressibility, soft clay

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Authors: Nidhi Choudhary, Silke A. Peeters, Ciaran T. Lennon, Dmytro Besprozvannyy, Harm C. M. Knoops, Robert H. Hadfield

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Superconducting Nanowire Single Photon Detectors (SNSPDs) have become leading devices in quantum optics and photonics, known for their exceptional efficiency in detecting single photons from ultraviolet to mid-infrared wavelengths with minimal dark counts, low noise, and reduced timing jitter. Recent advancements in materials science focus attention on refractory metal thin films such as NbN and NbTiN to enhance the optical properties and superconducting performance of SNSPDs, opening the way for next-generation detectors. These films have been deposited by several different techniques, such as atomic layer deposition (ALD), plasma pro-advanced plasma processing (ASP) and magnetron sputtering. The fabrication flexibility of these films enables precise control over morphology, crystallinity, stoichiometry and optical properties, which is crucial for optimising the SNSPD performance. Hence, it is imperative to study the optical and superconducting properties of these materials across a wide range of wavelengths. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the optical and superconducting properties of some important materials in this category (NbN, NbTiN) by different deposition methods. Using Variable angle ellipsometry spectroscopy (VASE), we measured the refractive index, extinction, and absorption coefficient across a wide wavelength range (200-1700 nm) to enhance light confinement for optical communication devices. The critical temperature and sheet resistance were measured using a four-probe method in a custom-built, cryogen-free cooling system with a Sumitomo RDK-101D cold head and CNA-11C compressor. Our results indicate that ALD-deposited NbN shows a higher refractive index and extinction coefficient in the near-infrared region (~1500 nm) than sputtered NbN of the same thickness. Further, the analysis of the optical properties of plasma pro-ASP deposited NbTiN was performed at different substrate bias voltages and different thicknesses. The analysis of substrate bias voltage indicates that the maximum value of the refractive index and extinction coefficient observed for the substrate biasing of 50-80 V across a substrate bias range of (0 V - 150 V). The optical properties of sputtered NbN films are also investigated in terms of the different substrate temperatures during deposition (100 °C-500 °C). We find the higher the substrate temperature during deposition, the higher the value of the refractive index and extinction coefficient has been observed. In all our superconducting thin films ALD-deposited NbN films possess the highest critical temperature (~12 K) compared to sputtered (~8 K) and plasma pro-ASP (~5 K).

Keywords: optical communication, thin films, superconductivity, atomic layer deposition (ALD), niobium nitride (NbN), niobium titanium nitride (NbTiN), SNSPD, superconducting detector, photon-counting.

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Authors: Lidon Lashley

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This paper presents how the social model of disability can be used to reshape inclusive education practices in Guyana. Inclusive education in Guyana is metamorphosizing but still firmly held in the tenets of the Medical Model of Disability which influences the experiences of children with Special Education Needs and/or Disabilities (SEN/D). An ethnographic approach to data gathering was employed in this study. Qualitative data was gathered from the voices of children with and without SEN/D as well as their mainstream teachers to present the interplay of discourses and subjectivities in the situation. The data was analyzed using Adele Clarke's postmodern approach to grounded theory analysis called situational analysis. The data suggest that it is possible but will be challenging to fully contextualize and adopt Loreman's synthesis and Booths and Ainscow's Index in the two mainstream schools studied. In addition, the data paved the way for the presentation of the social model framework specific to Guyana called 'Southern Inclusive Education Framework for Guyana' and its support tool called 'The Inclusive Checker created for Southern mainstream primary classrooms.

Keywords: social model of disability, medical model of disability, subjectivities, metamorphosis, special education needs, postcolonial Guyana, inclusion, culture, mainstream primary schools, Loreman's synthesis, Booths and Ainscow's index

Procedia PDF Downloads 157