Search results for: extreme weather events

Authors: Lionel Trovalet, Lisa Liu, Dimitri Bigot, Nadia Hammami, Jean-Pierre Habas, Bruno Malet-Damour

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The MCP-iBAT1 project is carried out to study the behavior of Phase Change Materials (PCM) integrated in building envelopes in a tropical environment. Through the phase transitions (melting and freezing) of the material, thermal energy can be absorbed or released. This process enables the regulation of indoor temperatures and the improvement of thermal comfort for the occupants. Most of the commercially available PCMs are more suitable to temperate climates than to tropical climates. The case of Reunion Island is noteworthy as there are multiple micro-climates. This leads to our key question: developing one or multiple bio-based PCMs that cover the thermal needs of the different locations of the island. The present paper focuses on the numerical approach to select the PCM properties relevant to tropical areas. Numerical simulations have been carried out with two softwares: EnergyPlusTM and Isolab. The latter has been developed in the laboratory, with the implicit Finite Difference Method, in order to evaluate different physical models. Both are Thermal Dynamic Simulation (TDS) softwares that predict the building’s thermal behavior with one-dimensional heat transfers. The parameters used in this study are the construction’s characteristics (dimensions and materials) and the environment’s description (meteorological data and building surroundings). The building is modeled in accordance with the experimental setup. It is divided into two rooms, cells A and B, with same dimensions. Cell A is the reference, while in cell B, a layer of commercial PCM (Thermo Confort of MCI Technologies) has been applied to the inner surface of the North wall. Sensors are installed in each room to retrieve temperatures, heat flows, and humidity rates. The collected data are used for the comparison with the numerical results. Our strategy is to implement two similar buildings at different altitudes (Saint-Pierre: 70m and Le Tampon: 520m) to measure different temperature ranges. Therefore, we are able to collect data for various seasons during a condensed time period. The following methodology is used to validate the numerical models: calibration of the thermal and PCM models in EnergyPlusTM and Isolab based on experimental measures, then numerical testing with a sensitivity analysis of the parameters to reach the targeted indoor temperatures. The calibration relies on the past ten months’ measures (from September 2020 to June 2021), with a focus on one-week study on November (beginning of summer) when the effect of PCM on inner surface temperatures is more visible. A first simulation with the PCM model of EnergyPlus gave results approaching the measurements with a mean error of 5%. The studied property in this paper is the melting temperature of the PCM. By determining the representative temperature of winter, summer and inter-seasons with past annual’s weather data, it is possible to build a numerical model of multi-layered PCM. Hence, the combined properties of the materials will provide an optimal scenario for the application on PCM in tropical areas. Future works will focus on the development of bio-based PCMs with the selected properties followed by experimental and numerical validation of the materials. 1Materiaux ´ a Changement de Phase, une innovation pour le B ` ati Tropical

Keywords: energyplus, multi-layer of PCM, phase changing materials, tropical area

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Authors: Mohammad Lutfur Rahman

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School students of Dhaka are in extreme risk of natural disasters. However, the study on assessment of the real scenario of high school students about perceptions of earthquake is very little. The purpose of this cross-sectional study is to assess the seismic risk perception and preparedness levels about earthquake among high school students in Shavar, Dhaka. A questionnaire was developed, and data collection was done about a group of high school students in seven classrooms. The author uses a method of surveying high school students to identify and describe the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions about earthquake. This study examines gender and grade differences in perceived risk and communication behavior in response to the earthquake. Female students’ preparation, participation, and communication with family are more frequent than that of male students. Female students have been found to be more likely to learn about a disaster than male students. Higher grade students have more awareness but less preparedness about earthquake than that of the younger one. This research concludes that irrespective of grades, high school students are vulnerable to earthquake due to the lack of a seismic education program.

Keywords: awareness, earthquake, risk perception, seismic

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Authors: Alemu Moges Belay, Torgeir Welo, Jan Ola Strandhagen

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Lean has long been linked with manufacturing, but its application claimed also by other functions such as product development and services. However, there is a challenge on understanding and defining lean in each function context. This paper aims to investigate the literature that focus mainly on PD process improvement, obtain better understanding and redefine LPD in systematic way. In addition to that, the paper attempts to summarize various proposed transformation strategies, definitions, identifying features of manufacturing and product development that would help to redefining lean in product development context. Finally we redefine LPD in organized way that encompasses different steps such as stage gate, communication and information, events, learning, innovation, knowledge and value creation.

Keywords: lean, lean manufacturing, lean product development, transformation, strategies

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Authors: Ramya Rachel S.

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For women in a developing country like India, poverty is an ever-clinging problem which has rooted itself without any trace of absolute abolition. Poverty is a deprivation of many imminent needs and must be measured accordingly. Therefore, it is important to study the dimensions of education, health, and standard of living to understand the true nature of the impoverished. The study focused on studying the deprivation on these aspects using the Alkire-Foster methodology to estimate the Multidimensional Poverty Index. The study has utilized the individual data of women aged 15 to 49 of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) for the year 2015-16. Findings reveal that women in India still face extreme levels of deprivation in various dimensions. More than one-third of the total women aged 15 to 24 in India were multidimensionally poor. Dimensional breakdown of the levels of multidimensional poverty indicates that the dimension of Education is the highest contributor to poverty. Decomposition of the multidimensional poverty among various demographic sub-groups, reveals that the multidimensional poverty level increases with age. Results point out that deprivations were higher among widowed and married women, and among women who lived alone. There was also a huge rural-urban divide with respect to poverty. The basic needs of these women must be targeted and met so that they are withdrawn from all forms of poverty.

Keywords: deprivations, multidimensional poverty, sub-group decomposition, women

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Authors: Zheng-Yan Ruan, Chien-Hao Wang, Hong-Jen Lin, Chien-Peng Huang, Ying-Hao Chen, En-Cheng Yang, Chwan-Lu Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

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Bees play a vital role in pollination. This paper focuses on the weighing process of honey. Honey is usually stored at the comb in a hive. Bee farmers brush bees away from the comb and then collect honey, and the collected honey is weighed afterward. However, such a process brings strong negative influences on bees and even leads to the death of bees. This paper therefore presents an Internet of Things-based weight monitoring system which uses weight sensors to measure the weight of honey and simplifies the whole weighing procedure. To verify the system, the weight measured by the system is compared to the weight of standard weights used for calibration by employing a linear regression model. The R² of the regression model is 0.9788, which suggests that the weighing system is highly reliable and is able to be applied to obtain actual weight of honey. In the future, the weight data of honey can be used to find the relationship between honey production and different ecological parameters, such as bees’ foraging behavior and weather conditions. It is expected that the findings can serve as critical information for honey production improvement.

Keywords: internet of things, weight, honey, bee

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Authors: Eric Kumar, Erica Cochran, Zhiang Zhang, Wei Liang, Ronak Mody

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The objective of this article was to create a modelling framework that exposes the marginal costs of shifting workloads across geographically distributed data-centers. Geographical distribution of internet services helps to optimize their performance for localized end users with lowered communications times and increased availability. However, due to the geographical and temporal effects, the physical embodiments of a service's data center infrastructure can vary greatly. In this work, we first identify that the sources of variances in the physical infrastructure primarily stem from local weather conditions, specific user traffic profiles, energy sources, and the types of IT hardware available at the time of deployment. Second, we create a traffic simulator that indicates the IT load at each data-center in the set as an approximator for user traffic profiles. Third, we implement a framework that quantifies the global level energy demands using building energy models and the traffic profiles. The results of the model provide a time series of energy demands that can be used for further life cycle analysis of internet services.

Keywords: data-centers, energy, life cycle, network simulation

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Authors: Ahmed S. Afifi, Ahmed Magdy

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Satellite monitoring is an essential tool to study, understand, and map large-scale environmental changes that affect humans, climate, and biodiversity. The Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instrument provides a high collection of data in all-weather, short revisit time, and high spatial resolution that can be used effectively in flood management. Floods occur when an overflow of water submerges dry land that requires to be distinguished from flooded areas. In this study, we use global flood mapper (GFM), a new google earth engine application that allows users to quickly map floods using Sentinel-1 SAR. The GFM enables the users to adjust manually the flood map parameters, e.g., the threshold for Z-value for VV and VH bands and the elevation and slope mask threshold. The composite R:G:B image results by coupling the bands of Sentinel-1 (VH:VV:VH) reduces false classification to a large extent compared to using one separate band (e.g., VH polarization band). The flood mapping algorithm in the GFM and the Otsu thresholding are compared with Sentinel-2 optical data. And the results show that the GFM algorithm can overcome the misclassification of a flooded area in An Giang, Vietnam.

Keywords: SAR backscattering, Sentinel-1, flood mapping, disaster

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Authors: Eduardo Guilherme, Sabrina Duarte

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Shelters or orphanages are institutions responsible for ensuring the physical and mental integrity of children and adolescents who had their rights violated or neglected, whether from a social-leavers, is at personal risk to which they were exposed or the negligence of its parents; in Brazil about twenty thousand children and adolescents living in about five hundred registered shelters that receive funds from the federal government. We evaluated the records of institutionalized children and adolescents from the foundation of municipal shelter in Rio Negro/Parana State, Brazil since June/2000 to February/2015. Institutionalization of the causes cited were: lack of family/guardian material resources, abandonment by parents/guardians, domestic violence, substance abuse of parents/guardians, street experience, orphans and others. In Brazil, poverty and extreme poverty are closely related to the institutionalization of causes of children and adolescents. Census data in 2010, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) indicate that 40% of Brazilians living in poverty are girls and boys up to 14 years in a total of approximately 23 million individuals. Poverty denies children and adolescents their rights, representing a vulnerability which predisposes to some causes of shelter.

Keywords: Brazil, shelter, orphanages, institutionalization

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Authors: Patthida Bunchavalit, Saharot Kittimahacharoen

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The objective of this article is to compare rice blessing ceremony between Thailand and Vietnam. Both countries are located in Southeast Asia where agriculture is the main occupation. As a result of the study, it is found that the rice blessing ceremony of Thai and Vietnamese societies have differences and similarities. A person leading the ceremony is a person who has the highest position in the country. For Thailand, it is the king or royal family member while for Vietnam, it is the president. In Thailand, the ceremony began in Ayutthaya period which derived from Buddhism and Brahmanism ideology. It is annually organized in the beginning of raining season. In Vietnam, it is annually organized in the beginning of spring. The first time it occurred was in Tien Le Monarchy period of Thien Phuc era deriving from Chinese ideology. The differences are ideas, believes, objectives and details of the ceremony. It is, in Thailand, to boost farmer’s morale and to predict the fertility of crops in each year. Additionally, there is a prediction using royal cows. Meanwhile, in Vietnam the purpose is to worship god of weather for seasonal rain and productive harvesting. Therefore, it is presumed that the rice blessing ceremony of Thailand and Vietnam somewhat have similarities in spite of having different origin but are on the same basis of belief.

Keywords: agriculture, ceremony, culture, Thailand, Vietnam

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Authors: Yousefali Ziari, Hamidreza Joudaki

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Humans have regularly been interacting with their environment, and have a close relation with their environment. House as a shelter which protects us against hot and cold weather and the other climatic occurrences in the environment has a close relation with climate. Before human could have access to the fossil fuels, preparing the comfort for the house was done by adjusting the building according to the climate conditions, and the help of natural resources. However after the man could access the fossil fuel, this way was forgotten, and caused much use of energy for heating & cooling. This research is trying to find some methods for designing suitable building that create comfort fitting with the zone by studying the climate condition of Arak city and as a result to find a way to reduce the use of energy and improving the design. So for the aim of this research we have used the statistics and information such as temperature, rain, wind and the approximate moisture from a period of 40 years from synoptic station of Arak. After specifying the climate of Arak by the use of effective temperature, Ulgi, Guni, Mahani and Ovenz indicator, we investigated the climate comfort conditions and the harmonious architecture with the climate and then some suggestion was given according to the climate situation of each month of the year and quality of human comfort according to this indicators.

Keywords: climate, architecture, traditional and modern architecture, comfort indicator, Arak city

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Authors: Trapond Hiransalee

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The technology of mobile devices has changed our daily lives. Since smartphone have become a multi-functional device, many people spend unnecessary time on them, and could be interrupted by inappropriate notifications such as unimportant messages from social media. Notifications from smartphone could draw people’s attention and distract them from their priorities and current tasks. This research investigated that if the users were notified by their surroundings instead of smartphone, would it create less distraction and keep their focus on the present task. The experiment was a simulation of a lamp and door notification. Notifications related to work will be embedded in the lamp such as an email from a colleague. A notification that is useful when going outside such as weather information, traffic information, and schedule reminder will be embedded in the door. The experiment was conducted by sending notifications to the participant while he or she was working on a primary task and the working performance was measured. The results show that the lamp notification had fewer interruption effects than the smartphone. For the door notification, it was simulated in order to gain opinions and insights on ambient notifications from participants. Many participants agreed that the ambient notifications are useful and being informed by them could lessen the usage of their smartphone. The results and insights from this research could be used to guide the design process of ambient notifications.

Keywords: HCI, interaction, interaction design, usability testing

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Authors: Laxmi Prasad Bhattarai

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is a growing global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods, and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: community forestry, climate change, global warming, adaptation, Nepal

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Authors: Carlos A. Domínguez Torres, Antonio Domínguez Delgado

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In this work we study the thermodynamic behavior of some ventilated facades under summer operating conditions in Southern Spain. Under these climatic conditions, indoor comfort implies a high energetic demand due to high temperatures that usually are reached in this season in the considered geographical area. The aim of this work is to determine if during summer operating conditions in Southern Spain, ventilated façades provide some energy saving compared to the non-ventilated façades and to deduce their behavior patterns in terms of energy efficiency. The modeling of the air flow in the channel has been performed by using Navier-Stokes equations for thermodynamic flows. Numerical simulations have been carried out with a 2D Finite Element approach. This way, we analyze the behavior of ventilated façades under different weather conditions as variable wind, variable temperature and different levels of solar irradiation. CFD computations show that the combined effect of the shading of the external wall and the ventilation by the natural convection into the air gap achieve a reduction of the heat load during the summer period. This reduction has been evaluated by comparing the thermodynamic performances of two ventilated and two unventilated façades with the same geometry and thermophysical characteristics.

Keywords: passive cooling, ventilated façades, energy-efficient building, CFD, FEM

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Authors: Pin Yu Chen, Puay Chuan Lee, Yu Jen Loo, Ju Xia Zhang, Deborah Teo, Jack Wei Chieh Tan, Biauw Chi Ong

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Background: Synchronous communication, such as telephone calls, remains the standard communication method between nurses and other healthcare professionals in Singapore public hospitals despite advances in asynchronous technological platforms, such as instant messaging. Although miscommunication is one of the most common causes of lapses in patient care, there is a scarcity of research characterizing baseline inter-professional healthcare communications in a hospital setting due to logistic difficulties. Objective: This study aims to characterize the frequency and patterns of communication behaviours among healthcare professionals. Methods: The one-week observational study was conducted on Monday through Sunday at the nursing station of a cardiovascular medicine and cardiothoracic surgery inpatient ward at the National Heart Centre Singapore. Subjects were shadowed by two physicians for sixteen hours or consecutive morning and afternoon nursing shifts. Communications were logged and characterized by type, duration, caller, and recipient. Results: A total of 1,023 communication events involving the attempted use of the common telephones at the nursing station were logged over a period of one week, corresponding to a frequency of one event every 5.45 minutes (SD 6.98, range 0-56 minutes). Nurses initiated the highest proportion of outbound calls (38.7%) via the nursing station common phone. A total of 179 face-to-face communications (17.5%), 362 inbound calls (35.39%), 481 outbound calls (47.02%), and 1 emergency alert (0.10%) were captured. Average response time for task-oriented communications was 159 minutes (SD 387.6, range 86-231). Approximately 1 in 3 communications captured aimed to clarify patient-related information. The total duration of time spent on synchronous communication events over one week, calculated from total inbound and outbound calls, was estimated to be a total of 7 hours. Conclusion: The results of our study showed that there is a significant amount of time spent on inter-professional healthcare communications via synchronous channels. Integration of patient-related information and use of asynchronous communication channels may help to reduce the redundancy of communications and clarifications. Future studies should explore the use of asynchronous mobile platforms to address the inefficiencies observed in healthcare communications.

Keywords: healthcare communication, healthcare management, nursing, qualitative observational study

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Authors: Guezouli Larbi, Belkacem Soundes

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The automation of the text detection process can help the human in his driving task. Its application can be very useful to help drivers to have more information about their environment by facilitating the reading of road signs such as directional signs, events, stores, etc. In this paper, a system consisting of two stages has been proposed. In the first one, we used pseudo-Zernike moments to pinpoint areas of the image that may contain text. The architecture of this part is based on three main steps, region of interest (ROI) detection, text localization, and non-text region filtering. Then, in the second step, we present a convolutional neural network architecture (On-Road Text Detection Network - ORTDN) which is considered a classification phase. The results show that the proposed framework achieved ≈ 35 fps and an mAP of ≈ 90%, thus a low computational time with competitive accuracy.

Keywords: text detection, CNN, PZM, deep learning

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Al-Deeb, Hamda Ateeq Al Dhaheri

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Insects cause major damage to crops and fruit trees worldwide. In the United Arab Emirates, the date palm tree is the most economically important tree which is used for date production as well as an ornamental tree. In 2002, the number of date palm trees in UAE was 40,700,000 and it is increasing over time. The longhorn stem borer (Jebusaea hammerschmidtii) and the lesser date month (Batrachedra amydraula) are important insect pests causing damage to date palm trees in UAE. Population dynamics of the Jebusaea hammerschmidtii and Batrachedra amydraula were studied by using light and pheromons traps, respectively in Al-Ain, UAE. The first trap catch of B. amydraula adults occurred on 19 April and the insect population peaked up on 26 April 2014. The first trap catch of J. hammerschmidtii occurred in April 2014. The numbers increased over time and the population peak occurred in June. The trapping was also done in 2015. The changes in insect numbers in relation to weather parameters are discussed. Also, the importance of the results on the management of these two pests is highlighted.

Keywords: date palm, integrated pest management, UAE, light trap, pheromone trap

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Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are warning signs for future strokes. TIA patients are at increased risk of stroke and cardio-vascular events after a first episode. A majority of studies on TIA focused on the occurrence of these ancillary events after a TIA. Long-term mortality after TIA received only limited attention. We undertook this study to determine the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a TIA using anonymised electronic health records (EHRs). We used a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients born prior to or in year 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general medical practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a random frailty effect of GP practice. 20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. Cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to matched controls (HR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.91 - 3.18)). The HRs for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to matched controls. Aspirin provided long-term survival benefits to cases. Cases aged 39-60 years on aspirin had HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.00), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively, compared to cases in the same age group who were not on antiplatelets. Similar beneficial effects of aspirin were observed in other age groups. There were no significant survival benefits with other antiplatelet options. No survival benefits of antiplatelet drugs were observed in controls. Our study highlights the excess long-term risk of death of TIA patients and cautions that TIA should not be treated as a benign condition. The study further recommends aspirin as the better option for secondary prevention for TIA patients compared to clopidogrel recommended by NICE guidelines. Management of risk factors and treatment strategies should be important challenges to reduce the burden of disease.

Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), General Practice, Multiple Imputation, The Health Improvement Network(THIN), hazard ratio (HR), Weibull-Cox model

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Authors: Mohammed Abdurabu, Akram Al-Warqi, Ebrahim M. A. Ebrahim, Jouhar Kollari, Salman Mirza

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The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the most recent pandemics that invaded earth that left and still leaving hundreds of thousands of patients and ended with high morbidity and mortality rates with no clear cure till this moment. COVID-19 has been proven to be associated with pathologic changes in coagulation, characterized by either thromboembolic or bleeding events. We present this case of a 44-year-old male patient that presented to our Emergency Department with flank pain that later was found to have renal angiomyolipoma (AML) rupture during his COVID-19 infection, ultimately requiring admission for hemorrhage control via Interventional Radiology (IR) drainage. Here, we discuss the role of the front-line physicians and how they should keep a low threshold for the different presentations that could be associated with COVID-19 infection.

Keywords: angiomyolipoma, COVID-19, renal, rupture

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Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Rohit Tripathi, Sumit Tiwari, G. N. Tiwari

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In present study, an approach is adopted where photovoltaic thermal flat plate collector is integrated with compound parabolic concentrator. Analytical expression of temperature dependent electrical efficiency of N number of partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) water collector connected in series has been derived with the help of basic thermal energy balance equations. Analysis has been carried for winter weather condition at Delhi location, India. Energy and exergy performance of N - partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) Water collector system has been compared for two cases: (i) 25% area of water collector covered by PV module, (ii) 75% area of water collector covered by PV module. It is observed that case (i) has been best suited for thermal performance and case (ii) for electrical energy as well as overall exergy.

Keywords: compound parabolic concentrator, energy, photovoltaic thermal, temperature dependent electrical efficiency

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Authors: Monty Vacura

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Hamilton’s Rule is a universal law of biology expressed in protists, plants and animals. When applied to human populations, this model explains: 1) Origin of religion in society as a biopsychological need selected to increase population size; 2) Instincts of racism expressed through intergroup competition; 3) Simultaneous selection for human cooperation and conflict, love and hate; 4) Connection between sporting events and instinctive social messaging for stimulating offensive and defensive responses; 5) Pathway to reduce human sacrifice. This chapter discusses the deep psychological influences of Hamilton’s Rule. Suggestions are provided to reduce human deaths via our instinctive sacrificial behavior, by consciously monitoring Hamilton’s Rule variables highlighted throughout our media outlets.

Keywords: psychology, Hamilton’s rule, evolution, human instincts

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Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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Fatalities of Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs) on rural roads are usually higher than that on urban roads. The likelihood of traffic accidents may increase with the presence of factors that are associated with the rural type of community such as long-distance, road type, road geometry (e.g., curves and steepens), poor lighting, terrain, obstacles (e.g., animals crossing, boulders or tree branches), heavy truck traffic, weather conditions, and road flaws. Most of these factors are present on the rural roads of Oman. As many cities in Oman are surrounded by mountains and connected by rural roads, this is of great concern. In this paper, the causes of traffic crashes on rural roads in Oman are analyzed. The fatality rate of traffic deaths on rural roads is compared with the fatality rate on urban roads for different regions in Oman. Statistical data and police reports show that the leading cause of RTCs and deaths on rural roads is vehicle speeding, especially on long-distance roads. It is shown that crashes on rural roads result in higher fatalities than crashes on urban roads. In comparison to speed, the numbers of RTCs and deaths that resulted from other causes are small.

Keywords: causes of traffic crashes, road safety, road traffic crash, rural roads

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Authors: Wasantha Pushpakumara Hitihami Mudiyanselage

Abstract:

Since recent past, Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to reoccurring climate shocks that severely impact the food security, loss of human & animal lives, destructions of human settlements, displacement of people and damaging properties. Hence, the Government of Sri Lanka has taken important steps towards strengthening legal and institutional arrangements for Disaster Risks management in the country in May 2005. Puttalam administrative district is one of the disaster prone districts in Sri Lanka which constantly face the devastating consequences of the increasing natural disasters annually. Therefore disaster risk management will be a timely intervention in the area to minimize the adverse impacts of the disasters. The few functioning Disaster Risk management networks do not take children’s specific needs and vulnerabilities during emergencies into account. The most affected children and their families were evacuated to the government schools and temples and it was observed that children were left to roaming around as their parents were busy queuing up for relief goods and other priorities. In this sense, VOICE understands that the community has vital role that has to be played in facing challenges of disaster management in the area. During and after the disaster, it was viewed that some children were having psychological disorders which could be impacted negatively to children well–being. Need of child friendly space at emergency is a must action in the area to turn away negative impact coming from the hazards. VOICE with the support of national & international communities have established safer places for the children (Child Centered Spaces – CCS) and their families at emergencies. Village religious venues and schools were selected and equipped with necessary materials to be used for the children at emergency. Materials such as tools, stationeries, play materials, which couldn’t be easily found in surrounding environment, were provided for CCS centers. Village animators, youth and elders were given comprehensive training on Disaster management and their role at CCS. They did the facilitation in keeping children without fear and stress at flooding occurred in 2015 as well as they were able to improve their skills when working with children. Flooding in 2016, the government agencies have taken service of these village animators at early stage of flooding to make all disaster-related recovery actions productively & efficiently. This mechanism is sustained at village level that can be used for disaster events.

Keywords: child centered space, impacts, psychological disorders, village animators

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Authors: Soheil Roumi, Fan Zhang, Rodney Stewart

Abstract:

Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) indexes represented the suitability of a place to study, work, and live. Many indexes have been introduced based on the physical measurement or occupant surveys in commercial buildings. The earlier studies did not elaborate on the relationship between energy consumption and IEQ in office buildings. Such a relationship can provide a comprehensive overview of the building's performance. Also, it would find the potential of already constructed buildings under the upcoming climate change. A commercial building in southeast Queensland, Australia, was evaluated in this study. Physical measurements of IEQ and Energy areconducted, and their relationship will be determined using statistical analysis. The case study building is modelled in TRNSys software, and it will be validatedusingthe actual building's BMS data. Then, the modelled buildingwill be simulated by predicted weather data developed by the commonwealth scientific and industrial research organisation of Australia to investigate the occupant resilience and energy consumption. Finally, recommendations will be presented to consume less energy while providinga proper indoor environment for office occupants.

Keywords: IEQ, office buildings, thermal comfort, occupant resilience

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Authors: H. Parameshwar Naik, Shripad Kulkarni

Abstract:

Powdery mildew is a serious disease among the fungal in high humid areas with varied temperature conditions. In recent days disease becomes very severe due to uncertain weather conditions and unique character of the disease is, it produces white mycelia growth on upper and lower leaf surfaces and in severe conditions it leads to defoliation. Results of the experiment revealed that sowing of crop in the I fortnight (FN) of July recorded the minimum mean disease severity (7.96 %) followed by crop sown in II FN of July (13.19 %) as against the crop sown in II FN of August (41.44 %) and I FN of September (33.78 %) and the I fortnight of October (33.77 %). In the first date of sowing infection started at 45 DAS and progressed till 73 DAS and it was up to 14.66 Percent and in second date of sowing disease progressed up to 22.66 percent and in the third date of sowing, it was up to 59.35 percent. Afterward, the disease started earlier and progressed up to 66.15 percent and in sixth and seventh date of sowing disease progressed up to 43.15 percent and 59.85 percent respectively. Disease progress is very fast after 45 days after sowing and highest disease incidence was noticed at 73 DAS irrespective of dates of sowing. From the results of the present study, it is very clear that disease development will be very high if crop sown in between 1st fortnight of August and the 1st fortnight of September.

Keywords: cucumber, India, Karnataka, powdery mildew

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Authors: G. K. Viswanadh, B. Rajasekhar, G. Venkata Ramana

Abstract:

Water distribution networks play a vital role in ensuring a reliable supply of clean water to urban areas. However, they face several challenges, including pressure control, pump speed optimization, and burst event detection. This paper combines insights from two studies to address these critical issues in Water distribution networks, focusing on the specific context of Kapra Municipality, India. The first part of this research concentrates on optimizing pressure control and pump speed in complex Water distribution networks. It utilizes the EPANET- MATLAB Toolkit to integrate EPANET functionalities into the MATLAB environment, offering a comprehensive approach to network analysis. By optimizing Pressure Reduce Valves (PRVs) and variable speed pumps (VSPs), this study achieves remarkable results. In the Benchmark Water Distribution System (WDS), the proposed PRV optimization algorithm reduces average leakage by 20.64%, surpassing the previous achievement of 16.07%. When applied to the South-Central and East zone WDS of Kapra Municipality, it identifies PRV locations that were previously missed by existing algorithms, resulting in average leakage reductions of 22.04% and 10.47%. These reductions translate to significant daily Water savings, enhancing Water supply reliability and reducing energy consumption. The second part of this research addresses the pressing issue of burst event detection and localization within the Water Distribution System. Burst events are a major contributor to Water losses and repair expenses. The study employs wireless sensor technology to monitor pressure and flow rate in real time, enabling the detection of pipeline abnormalities, particularly burst events. The methodology relies on transient analysis of pressure signals, utilizing Cumulative Sum and Wavelet analysis techniques to robustly identify burst occurrences. To enhance precision, burst event localization is achieved through meticulous analysis of time differentials in the arrival of negative pressure waveforms across distinct pressure sensing points, aided by nodal matrix analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of this methodology, a PVC Water pipeline test bed is employed, demonstrating the algorithm's success in detecting pipeline burst events at flow rates of 2-3 l/s. Remarkably, the algorithm achieves a localization error of merely 3 meters, outperforming previously established algorithms. This research presents a significant advancement in efficient burst event detection and localization within Water pipelines, holding the potential to markedly curtail Water losses and the concomitant financial implications. In conclusion, this combined research addresses critical challenges in Water distribution networks, offering solutions for optimizing pressure control, pump speed, burst event detection, and localization. These findings contribute to the enhancement of Water Distribution System, resulting in improved Water supply reliability, reduced Water losses, and substantial cost savings. The integrated approach presented in this paper holds promise for municipalities and utilities seeking to improve the efficiency and sustainability of their Water distribution networks.

Keywords: pressure reduce valve, complex networks, variable speed pump, wavelet transform, burst detection, CUSUM (Cumulative Sum), water pipeline monitoring

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Authors: Tzu-Ping Lin, Shing-Ru Yang

Abstract:

Climate change has a significant impact on human living environment, while the traditional settlement may suffer extreme thermal stress due to its specific building type and living behavior. This study selected Lutaoyang, which is the largest settlement in mountainous areas of Tainan County, for the investigation area. The microclimate parameters, such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and mean radiant temperature. The micro climate parameters were also simulated by the ENVI-met model. The results showed the banyan tree area providing good thermal comfort condition due to the shading. On the contrary, the courtyard (traditionally for the crops drying) surrounded by low rise building and consisted of artificial pavement contributing heat stress especially in summer noon. In the climate change simulations, the courtyard will become very hot and are not suitable for residents activities. These analytical results will shed light on the sustainability related to thermal environment in traditional settlements and develop adaptive measure towards sustainable development under the climate change challenges.

Keywords: thermal environment, traditional settlement, ENVI-met, Taiwan

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Authors: Mustafa Alhamdi

Abstract:

Industrial application to classify gamma rays and neutron events is investigated in this study using deep machine learning. The identification using a convolutional neural network and recursive neural network showed a significant improvement in predication accuracy in a variety of applications. The ability to identify the isotope type and activity from spectral information depends on feature extraction methods, followed by classification. The features extracted from the spectrum profiles try to find patterns and relationships to present the actual spectrum energy in low dimensional space. Increasing the level of separation between classes in feature space improves the possibility to enhance classification accuracy. The nonlinear nature to extract features by neural network contains a variety of transformation and mathematical optimization, while principal component analysis depends on linear transformations to extract features and subsequently improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, the isotope spectrum information has been preprocessed by finding the frequencies components relative to time and using them as a training dataset. Fourier transform implementation to extract frequencies component has been optimized by a suitable windowing function. Training and validation samples of different isotope profiles interacted with CdTe crystal have been simulated using Geant4. The readout electronic noise has been simulated by optimizing the mean and variance of normal distribution. Ensemble learning by combing voting of many models managed to improve the classification accuracy of neural networks. The ability to discriminate gamma and neutron events in a single predication approach using deep machine learning has shown high accuracy using deep learning. The paper findings show the ability to improve the classification accuracy by applying the spectrogram preprocessing stage to the gamma and neutron spectrums of different isotopes. Tuning deep machine learning models by hyperparameter optimization of neural network models enhanced the separation in the latent space and provided the ability to extend the number of detected isotopes in the training database. Ensemble learning contributed significantly to improve the final prediction.

Keywords: machine learning, nuclear physics, Monte Carlo simulation, noise estimation, feature extraction, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 135