Search results for: data structure
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 30386

Search results for: data structure

18536 Immunity Boosting and Balanced Diet Prevents Viral Infections with Special Emphasis on COVID-19

Authors: K. R. Padma, K. R. Don

Abstract:

Background and aims: A balanced nutritional diet is essential in maintaining immunity and for deterrence as well as desisting of viral infections. Nevertheless, currently, very less information is available online regarding nutrition consumption during the period of coronavirus infection, i.e. (COVID-19). In our systematic review article, we portrayed and aimed to evaluate evidence from various previous clinical trials, which was based on nutritional interventions for viral diseases and given a concise overview. Methods: A systematic search was carried out employing 3 key medical databases: PubMed®, Web of Science®, and SciVerse Scopus®. Studies were performed and evaluated suitable if clinical trials in humans, appropriate immunological parameters on viral and respiratory infections, need to perform. Basic Clinical trials on nutritional vitamins, minerals, nutraceuticals as well as probiotics were included. Results: We have explored 10 review articles and extracted data for our study. A total of > 2000 participants were included and excluded several other trace elements as well as various vitamins, but in inclusion criteria mainly concentrated on those who have shown propitious immune-modulatory effects against viral respiratory infections. Conclusions: We have encapsulated the potential health benefits of some minerals, vitamins, as well as certain designer foods, nutraceuticals, and probiotics in viral infections. Based on this nutritional interventional strategy available from our present data, it could be promising to abstain and reduce the COVID-19 infection replication and boost our immunity to fight against the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, immunity, vitamins, nutritional intervention strategy

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18535 Vertically Coupled III-V/Silicon Single Mode Laser with a Hybrid Grating Structure

Authors: Zekun Lin, Xun Li

Abstract:

Silicon photonics has gained much interest and extensive research for a promising aspect for fabricating compact, high-speed and low-cost photonic devices compatible with complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) process. Despite the remarkable progress made on the development of silicon photonics, high-performance, cost-effective, and reliable silicon laser sources are still missing. In this work, we present a 1550 nm III-V/silicon laser design with stable single-mode lasing property and robust and high-efficiency vertical coupling. The InP cavity consists of two uniform Bragg grating sections at sides for mode selection and feedback, as well as a central second-order grating for surface emission. A grating coupler is etched on the SOI waveguide by which the light coupling between the parallel III-V and SOI is reached vertically rather than by evanescent wave coupling. Laser characteristic is simulated and optimized by the traveling-wave model (TWM) and a Green’s function analysis as well as a 2D finite difference time domain (FDTD) method for the coupling process. The simulation results show that single-mode lasing with SMSR better than 48dB is achievable, and the threshold current is less than 15mA with a slope efficiency of around 0.13W/A. The coupling efficiency is larger than 42% and possesses a high tolerance with less than 10% reduction for 10 um horizontal or 15 um vertical dislocation. The design can be realized by standard flip-chip bonding techniques without co-fabrication of III-V and silicon or precise alignment.

Keywords: III-V/silicon integration, silicon photonics, single mode laser, vertical coupling

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
18534 A Geoprocessing Tool for Early Civil Work Notification to Optimize Fiber Optic Cable Installation Cost

Authors: Hussain Adnan Alsalman, Khalid Alhajri, Humoud Alrashidi, Abdulkareem Almakrami, Badie Alguwaisem, Said Alshahrani, Abdullah Alrowaished

Abstract:

Most of the cost of installing a new fiber optic cable is attributed to civil work-trenching-cost. In many cases, information technology departments receive project proposals in their eReview system, but not all projects are visible to everyone. Additionally, if there was no IT scope in the proposed project, it is not likely to be visible to IT. Sometimes it is too late to add IT scope after project budgets have been finalized. Finally, the eReview system is a repository of PDF files for each project, which commits the reviewer to manual work and limits automation potential. This paper details a solution to address the late notification of the eReview system by integrating IT Sites GIS data-sites locations-with land use permit (LUP) data-civil work activity, which is the first step before securing the required land usage authorizations and means no detailed designs for any relevant project before an approved LUP request. To address the manual nature of eReview system, both the LUP System and IT data are using ArcGIS Desktop, which enables the creation of a geoprocessing tool with either Python or Model Builder to automate finding and evaluating potentially usable LUP requests to reduce trenching between two sites in need of a new FOC. To achieve this, a weekly dump was taken from LUP system production data and loaded manually onto ArcMap Desktop. Then a custom tool was developed in model builder, which consisted of a table of two columns containing all the pairs of sites in need of new fiber connectivity. The tool then iterates all rows of this table, taking the sites’ pair one at a time and finding potential LUPs between them, which satisfies the provided search radius. If a group of LUPs was found, an iterator would go through each LUP to find the required civil work between the two sites and the LUP Polyline feature and the distance through the line, which would be counted as cost avoidance if an IT scope had been added. Finally, the tool will export an Excel file named with sites pair, and it will contain as many rows as the number of LUPs, which met the search radius containing trenching and pulling information and cost. As a result, multiple projects have been identified – historical, missed opportunity, and proposed projects. For the proposed project, the savings were about 75% ($750,000) to install a new fiber with the Euclidean distance between Abqaiq GOSP2 and GOSP3 DCOs. In conclusion, the current tool setup identifies opportunities to bundle civil work on single projects at a time and between two sites. More work is needed to allow the bundling of multiple projects between two sites to achieve even more cost avoidance in both capital cost and carbon footprint.

Keywords: GIS, fiber optic cable installation optimization, eliminate redundant civil work, reduce carbon footprint for fiber optic cable installation

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18533 An Analysis of L1 Effects on the Learning of EFL: A Case Study of Undergraduate EFL Learners at Universities in Pakistan

Authors: Nadir Ali Mugheri, Shaukat Ali Lohar

Abstract:

In a multilingual society like Pakistan, code switching is commonly observed in different contexts. Mostly people use L1 (Native Languages) and L2 for common communications and L3 (i.e. English, Urdu, Sindhi) in formal contexts and for academic writings. Such a frequent code switching does affect EFL learners' acquisition of grammar and lexis of the target language which in the long run result in different types of errors in their writings. The current study is to investigate and identify common elements of L1 and L2 (spoken by students of the Universities in Pakistan) which create hindrances for EFL learners. Case study method was used for this research. Formal writings of 400 EFL learners (as participants from various Universities of the country) were observed. Among 400 participants, 200 were female and 200 were male EFL learners having different academic backgrounds. Errors found were categorized into different types according to grammatical items, the difference in meanings, structure of sentences and identifiers of tenses of L1 or L2 in comparison with those of the target language. The findings showed that EFL learners in Pakistani varsities have serious problems in their writings and they committed serious errors related to the grammar and meanings of the target language. After analysis of the committed errors, the results were found in the affirmation of the hypothesis that L1 or L2 does affect EFL learners. The research suggests in the end to adopt natural ways in pedagogy like task-based learning or communicative methods using contextualized material so as to avoid impediments of L1 or L2 in acquisition the target language.

Keywords: multilingualism, L2 acquisition, code switching, language acquisition, communicative language teaching

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18532 Clarifying the Possible Symptomatic Pathway of Comorbid Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Among Adolescents Exposed to Childhood Trauma: Insight from the Network Approach

Authors: Xinyuan Zou, Qihui Tang, Shujian Wang, Yulin Huang, Jie Gui, Xiangping Liu, Gang Liu, Yanqiang Tao

Abstract:

Childhood trauma can have a long-lasting influence on individuals and contribute to mental disorders, including depression and anxiety. The current study aimed to explore the symptomatic and developmental patterns of depression, anxiety, and stress among adolescents who have suffered from childhood trauma. A total of 3,598 college students (female = 1,617 (44.94%), Mean Age = 19.68, SD Age = 1.35) in China completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales (DASS-21), and 2,337 participants met the selection standard based on the cut-off scores of the CTQ. The symptomatic network and directed acyclic graph (DAG) network approaches were used. The results revealed that males reported experiencing significantly more physical abuse, physical neglect, emotional neglect, and sexual abuse compared to females. However, females scored significantly higher than males on all items of DASS-21, except for “Worthless”. No significant difference between the two genders was observed in the network structure and global strength. Meanwhile, among all participants, “Down-hearted” and “Agitated” appeared to be the most interconnected symptoms, the bridge symptoms in the symptom network, as well as the most vital symptoms in the DAG network. Apart from that, “No-relax” also served as the most prominent symptom in the DAG network. The results suggested that intervention targeted at assisting adolescents in developing more adaptive coping strategies with stress and regulating emotion could benefit the alleviation of comorbid depression, anxiety, and stress.

Keywords: symptom network, childhood trauma, depression, anxiety, stress

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18531 The “Bright Side” of COVID-19: Effects of Livestream Affordances on Consumer Purchase Willingness: Explicit IT Affordances Perspective

Authors: Isaac Owusu Asante, Yushi Jiang, Hailin Tao

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Live streaming marketing, the new electronic commerce element, became an optional marketing channel following the COVID-19 pandemic. Many sellers have leveraged the features presented by live streaming to increase sales. Studies on live streaming have focused on gaming and consumers’ loyalty to brands through live streaming, using interview questionnaires. This study, however, was conducted to measure real-time observable interactions between consumers and sellers. Based on the affordance theory, this study conceptualized constructs representing the interactive features and examined how they drive consumers’ purchase willingness during live streaming sessions using 1238 datasets from Amazon Live, following the manual observation of transaction records. Using structural equation modeling, the ordinary least square regression suggests that live viewers, new followers, live chats, and likes positively affect purchase willingness. The Sobel and Monte Carlo tests show that new followers, live chats, and likes significantly mediate the relationship between live viewers and purchase willingness. The study introduces a new way of measuring interactions in live streaming commerce and proposes a way to manually gather data on consumer behaviors in live streaming platforms when the application programming interface (API) of such platforms does not support data mining algorithms.

Keywords: livestreaming marketing, live chats, live viewers, likes, new followers, purchase willingness

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18530 Human Resource Management Challenges in Age of Artificial Intelligence: Methodology of Case Analysis

Authors: Olga Leontjeva

Abstract:

In the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI), some organization management approaches need to be adapted or changed. Human Resource Management (HRM) is a part of organization management that is under the managers' focus nowadays, because AI integration into organization activities brings some HRM-connected challenges. The topic became more significant during the crises of many organizations in the world caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The paper presents an approach, which will be used for the study that is going to be focused on the various case analysis. The author of the future study will analyze the cases of the organizations from Latvia and Spain that are grouped by the size, type of activity and area of business. The information for the cases will be collected through structured interviews and online surveys. The main result presented is the questionnaire developed that will be used for the study as well as the definition and description of sampling. The first round of the survey will be based on convenience sampling that is the main limitation of the study. To conclude, the approach developed will help to collect valid data if the organizations participating in the survey are ready to share their cases in depth, so the researchers could draw the right conclusions and generalize compared organizations’ cases. The questionnaire developed for the survey is applicable for both written online data collection as well as for the interviews. The case analysis will help to identify some HRM challenges that are connected to AI integration into organization activities such as management of different generation employees and their training peculiarities.

Keywords: age of artificial intelligence, case analysis, generation Y and Z employees, human resource management

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18529 Lived Experiences and Perspectives of Adult Survivors of Incest-Related Childhood Sexual Abuse

Authors: Varsha Puri, Sharon Hudson, Ian Kim

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Background: Incest-related childhood sexual abuse (IRCSA) is challenging to study due to the shame and secrecy experienced by its survivors. Ramifications of IRCSA worsen when it is unidentified, and interventions are not made. IRCSA perspectives are essential for future prevention and intervention strategies. However, there is limited understanding of this population’s experiences, perspectives, and long-term struggles. To date, research for IRCSA has utilized data from treatment programs and qualitative research with cohorts of 10-20 people, much of the data is from 10-40 years prior. Methods. In June 2018, an anonymous online survey was posted to multiple social media sites (e.g., Facebook IRCSA groups) and sexual abuse resource sites. Survey responses were collected for a year. The survey collected non-identifying demographics, IRCSA experiences, and outcomes data. Results: We obtained 1310 completed surveys. Demographics of all ages, racial backgrounds, financial backgrounds, and genders were obtained; the majority identified as white (81%) and female (76%). Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) started before the age of 6 in 49% and was endured for more than one year in 84% of respondents, and 39% reported ten or more years of abuse. CSA by multiple perpetrators occurred in 58%, while 8% had ten or more perpetrators. CSA by perpetrators under 21 years old was reported by 46%. Female perpetrators were reported by 28% of respondents. Fathers were the highest reported sexual abusers at 60%, and mothers were reported at 17%. Only 16% reported that at least one of their perpetrators was prosecuted for sexual abuse of a minor. Respondents confirmed that 54% of the time, they informed an adult of the abuse; only 2% agreed that “an intervention was made by the family that protected me.” A majority reported that IRCSA has negatively impacted their intimate/sexual relationships (96%) and mental health (96%). A majority reported negative impacts on biological family relationships (88%), physical health (73%), finances (59%), educational achievement (57%), and employment (56%). When asked about suffering from addiction, 85% of respondents answered yes. Prevention strategies selected most by respondents include early school education around CSA prevention (67%), removing the statute of limitations for reporting CSA (69%), and improved laws protecting IRCSA survivors (63%). Conclusion: The data document that IRCSA can be pervasive, and the dearth of intervention and support for survivors have major lasting impacts. Survivors have a unique and valuable perspective on what interventions are needed to prevent IRCSA and support survivors; their voice has long been unheard in crafting prevention and intervention policies and services. These results thus provide an important call to action from these critical stakeholders. Pediatricians should recognize that perpetrators can be pediatric patients, women, and parents. Pediatricians can advocate for more early CSA prevention education and policy changes that remove the statute of limitations for reporting CSA.

Keywords: incest, childhood sexual abuse, incest-related childhood sexual abuse, incest survivor

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18528 Spiritual Symbols of African Fruits as Responsive Catalysts for Naturopathy

Authors: Orogun Daniel Oghenekevhwe

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Africa being an agrarian continent has an abundance of fruits that are both nutritional and medicinal. Regardless of the abundance of these healing elements, Africa leads the statistics of poor healthcare globally. Among others, there are two noticeable challenges in the healthcare system which are ‘Poor access and high cost of medical healthcare’. The effects of both the access and economic implications are (1) Low responsiveness and (2) High mortality rate. While the United Nations and the global health community continue to work towards reduced mortality rates and poor responsiveness to healthcare and wellness, this paper investigates how some Africans use the spiritual symbols of African fruits as responsive catalysts to embrace naturopathy thereby reducing the effects and impacts of poor healthcare challenges in Africa. The main argument is whether there are links between spiritual symbols and fruits that influence Africans' response to naturopathy and low-cost healthcare. Following that is the question of how medical healthcare responds to such development. Bitter Kola (Garcinia) is the case study fruit, and Sunnyside in Pretoria, South Africa, has been spotted as one of the high-traffic selling points of herbal fruits. A mixed research method is applicable with an expected 20 Quantitative data respondents among sellers and nutritionists and 50 Qualitative Data respondents among consumers. Based on the results, it should be clear how spirituality contributes to alternative healthcare and how it can be further encouraged to bridge the gap between the high demand and low supply of healthcare in Africa and beyond.

Keywords: spiritual symbols, naturopathy, African fruits, spirituality, healthcare

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18527 Balancing Act: Political Dynamics of Economic and Climatological Security in the Politics of the Middle East

Authors: Zahra Bakhtiari

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Middle East countries confront a multitude of main environmental challenges which are inevitable. The unstable economic and political structure which dominates numerous middle East countries makes it difficult to react effectively to unfavorable climate change impacts. This study applies a qualitative methodology and relies on secondary literature aimed to investigate how countries in the Middle East are balancing economic security and climatic security in terms of budgeting, infrastructure investment, political engagement (domestically through discourses or internationally in terms of participation in international organizations or bargaining, etc.) There has been provided an outline of innovative measures in both economic and environmental fields that are in progress in the Middle East countries and what capacity they have for economic development and environmental adaptation, as well as what has already been performed. The primary outcome is that countries that rely more on infrastructure investment such as negative emissions technologies (NET) through green social capital enterprises and political engagement, especially nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commitments and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), experience more economic and climatological security balance in the Middle East. Since implementing these measures is not the same in all countries in the region, we see different levels of balance between climate security and economic security. The overall suggestion is that the collaboration of both the bottom-up and top-down approaches helps create strategic environmental strategies which are in line with the economic circumstances of each country and creates the desired balance.

Keywords: climate change, economic growth, sustainability, the Middle East, green economy, renewable energy

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18526 Access to the Community and Needed Supports among People with Physical Disabilities Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports in the United States

Authors: Stephanie Giordano, Eric Lam, Rosa Plasencia

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An important piece of active aging is ensuring people have the right support to meet individual needs. Using NCI-AD data, we will look at measures of satisfaction with community access and needed services among people with physical disabilities receiving LTSS in the US. National Core Indicators—Aging and Disabilities (NCI-AD) is a voluntary effort by State Medicaid, aging, and disability agencies across the US to measure and track their own performance. NCI-AD uses a standardized survey – the Adult Consumer Survey (ACS), to hear directly from people receiving services about the quality of services and supports they receive. Data from the 2018-19 ACS found that compared to people without a physical disability, those with a physical disability were more likely to make choices about the services they receive, including when and how often they receive those services. Yet people with a physical disability were less likely to report they get enough assistance with everyday activities (e.g., shopping, housework, and taking medications) and self-care (e.g., dressing or bathing) and more likely to report that services and supports do not fully meet their needs and goals. A further breakdown by age shows that people 40-65 years old with a physical disability experienced even greater barriers to being as active in the community as they would like to be, indicating a need to better support people as they age with or into a disability. We will explore how these and other outcomes were affected by COVID-19, take a closer look at outcomes by demographics (e.g., race/ethnicity, gender, and mental health diagnoses) and discuss implications on the future needs of service systems.

Keywords: quality-of-life, long-term services and supports, person-centered, community

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18525 On Consolidated Predictive Model of the Natural History of Breast Cancer Considering Primary Tumor and Primary Distant Metastases Growth

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

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18524 Entrepreneurship, Institutional Quality, and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

Authors: Cleopatra Oluseye Ibukun

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Following the endogenous growth theory, entrepreneurship has been considered pivotal to economic growth and development, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce unemployment has yielded minimal result with over 36% of youth unemployment and a dwindling economic growth despite the country’s natural and human resource endowment. This study, therefore, investigates the effects of entrepreneurship and institutional quality on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 1996 to 2018. The data is obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), and the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). The study period is guided by the availability of data, and the study employs both descriptive and econometric techniques of analysis (specifically, the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Approach). This approach is preferable given that the variables are stationary at the first difference, while the bounds test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. By implication, an increase in entrepreneurship significantly improves economic growth, and it reduces unemployment in both the short-run and the long-run. Besides, institutional quality proxied by the control of corruption, political stability, and government effectiveness significantly mediates the interaction between entrepreneurship and macroeconomic performance. This study concludes that improved institutional quality enhances the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria, and it recommends an improvement in Nigeria’s institutional quality because it can jeopardise or augment the effect of entrepreneurship on macroeconomic performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, institutional quality, unemployment, gross domestic product, Nigeria

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18523 A Machine Learning Approach for Earthquake Prediction in Various Zones Based on Solar Activity

Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes; it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to affect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, long short-term memory network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares

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18522 Bone Mineral Density and Trabecular Bone Score in Ukrainian Men with Obesity

Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Anna Musiienko, Nataliia Dzerovych, Roksolana Povoroznyuk

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Osteoporosis and obesity are widespread diseases in people over 50 years associated with changes in structure and body composition. Нigher body mass index (BMI) values are associated with greater bone mineral density (BMD). However, trabecular bone score (TBS) indirectly explores bone quality, independently of BMD. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between the BMD and TBS parameters in Ukrainian men suffering from obesity. We examined 396 men aged 40-89 years. Depending on their BMI all the subjects were divided into two groups: Group I – patients with obesity whose BMI was ≥ 30 kg/m2 (n=129) and Group II – patients without obesity and BMI of < 30 kg/m2 (n=267). The BMD of total body, lumbar spine L1-L4, femoral neck and forearm were measured by DXA (Prodigy, GEHC Lunar, Madison, WI, USA). The TBS of L1- L4 was assessed by means of TBS iNsight® software installed on DXA machine (product of Med-Imaps, Pessac, France). In general, obese men had a significantly higher BMD of lumbar spine L1-L4, femoral neck, total body and ultradistal forearm (p < 0.001) in comparison with men without obesity. The TBS of L1-L4 was significantly lower in obese men compared to non-obese ones (p < 0.001). BMD of lumbar spine L1-L4, femoral neck and total body significantly differ in men aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 80-89 years (p < 0.05). At the same time, in men aged 70-79 years, BMD of lumbar spine L1-L4 (p=0.46), femoral neck (p=0.18), total body (p=0.21), ultra-distal forearm (p=0.13), and TBS (p=0.07) did not significantly differ. A significant positive correlation between the fat mass and the BMD at different sites was observed. However, the correlation between the fat mass and TBS of L1-L4 was also significant, though negative.

Keywords: bone mineral density, trabecular bone score, obesity, men

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18521 Numerical Simulation of a Point Absorber Wave Energy Converter Using OpenFOAM in Indian Scenario

Authors: Pooja Verma, Sumana Ghosh

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There is a growing need for alternative way of power generation worldwide. The reason can be attributed to limited resources of fossil fuels, environmental pollution, increasing cost of conventional fuels, and lower efficiency of conversion of energy in existing systems. In this context, one of the potential alternatives for power generation is wave energy. However, it is difficult to estimate the amount of electrical energy generation in an irregular sea condition by experiment and or analytical methods. Therefore in this work, a numerical wave tank is developed using the computational fluid dynamics software Open FOAM. In this software a specific utility known as waves2Foam utility is being used to carry out the simulation work. The computational domain is a tank of dimension: 5m*1.5m*1m with a floating object of dimension: 0.5m*0.2m*0.2m. Regular waves are generated at the inlet of the wave tank according to Stokes second order theory. The main objective of the present study is to validate the numerical model against existing experimental data. It shows a good matching with the existing experimental data of floater displacement. Later the model is exploited to estimate energy extraction due to the movement of such a point absorber in real sea conditions. Scale down the wave properties like wave height, wave length, etc. are used as input parameters. Seasonal variations are also considered.

Keywords: OpenFOAM, numerical wave tank, regular waves, floating object, point absorber

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18520 Realization of Hybrid Beams Inertial Amplifier

Authors: Somya Ranjan Patro, Abhigna Bhatt, Arnab Banerjee

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Inertial amplifier has recently gained increasing attention as a new mechanism for vibration control of structures. Currently, theoretical investigations are undertaken by researchers to reveal its fundamentals and to understand its underline principles in altering the structural response of structures against dynamic loadings. This paper investigates experimental and analytical studies on the dynamic characteristics of hybrid beam inertial amplifier (HBIA). The analytical formulation of the HBIA has been derived by implementing the spectral element method and rigid body dynamics. This formulation gives the relation between dynamic force and the response of the structure in the frequency domain. Further, for validation of the proposed HBIA, the experiments have been performed. The experimental setup consists of a 3D printed HBIA of polylactic acid (PLA) material screwed at the base plate of the shaker system. Two numbers of accelerometers are used to study the response, one at the base plate of the shaker second one placed at the top of the inertial amplifier. A force transducer is also placed in between the base plate and the inertial amplifier to calculate the total amount of load transferred from the base plate to the inertial amplifier. The obtained time domain response from the accelerometers have been converted into the frequency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm. The experimental transmittance values are successfully validated with the analytical results, providing us essential confidence in our proposed methodology.

Keywords: inertial amplifier, fast fourier transform, natural frequencies, polylactic acid, transmittance, vibration absorbers

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18519 Intertextuality in Choreography: Investigation of Text and Movements in Making Choreography

Authors: Muhammad Fairul Azreen Mohd Zahid

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Speech, text, and movement intensify aspects of creating choreography by connecting with emotional entanglements, tradition, literature, and other texts. This research focuses on the practice as research that will prioritise the choreography process as an inquiry approach. With the driven context, the study intervenes in critical conjunctions of choreographic theory, bringing together new reflections on the moving body, spaces of action, as well as intertextuality between text and movements in making choreography. Throughout the process, the researcher will introduce the level of deliberation from speech through movements and text to express emotion within a narrative context of an “illocutionary act.” This practice as research will produce a different meaning from the “utterance text” to “utterance movements” in the perspective of speech acts theory by J.L Austin based on fragmented text from “pidato adat” which has been used as opening speech in Randai. Looking at the theory of deconstruction by Jacque Derrida also will give a different meaning from the text. Nevertheless, the process of creating the choreography will also help to lay the basic normative structure implicit in “constative” (statement text/movement) and “performative” (command text/movement). Through this process, the researcher will also look at several methods of using text from two works by Joseph Gonzales, “Becoming King-The Pakyung Revisited” and Crystal Pite's “The Statement,” as references to produce different methods in making choreography. The perspective from the semiotic foundation will support how occurrences within dance discourses as texts through a semiotic lens. The method used in this research is qualitative, which includes an interview and simulation of the concept to get an outcome.

Keywords: intertextuality, choreography, speech act, performative, deconstruction

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18518 Influence of Laser Excitation on SERS of Silicon Nanocrystals

Authors: Khamael M. Abualnaja, Lidija Šiller, Ben R. Horrocks

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Surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) of Silicon nano crystals (SiNCs) were obtained using two different laser excitations: 488 nm and 514.5 nm. Silver nano particles were used as plasmonics metal nano particles due to a robust SERS effect that observed when they mixed with SiNCs. SiNCs have been characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). It is found that the SiNCs are crystalline with an average diameter of 65 nm and FCC lattice. Silver nano particles (AgNPs) of two different sizes were synthesized using photo chemical reduction of AgNO3 with sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS). The synthesized AgNPs have a polycrystalline structure with an average particle diameter of 100 nm and 30 nm, respectively. A significant enhancement in the SERS intensity was observed for AgNPs100/SiNCs and AgNPs30/SiNCs mixtures increasing up to 9 and 3 times respectively using 488 nm intensity; whereas the intensity of the SERS signal increased up to 7 and 2 times respectively, using 514.5 nm excitation source. The enhancement in SERS intensities occurs as a result of the coupling between the excitation laser light and the plasmon bands of AgNPs; thus this intense field at AgNPs surface couples strongly to SiNCs. The results provide good consensus between the wavelength of the laser excitation source and surface plasmon resonance absorption band of silver nano particles consider to be an important requirement in SERS experiments.

Keywords: silicon nanocrystals (SiNCs), silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), surface enhanced raman spectroscopy (SERS)

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18517 Role of Pulp Volume Method in Assessment of Age and Gender in Lucknow, India, an Observational Study

Authors: Anurag Tripathi, Sanad Khandelwal

Abstract:

Age and gender determination are required in forensic for victim identification. There is secondary dentine deposition throughout life, resulting in decreased pulp volume and size. Evaluation of pulp volume using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT)is a noninvasive method to evaluate the age and gender of an individual. The study was done to evaluate the efficacy of pulp volume method in the determination of age and gender.Aims/Objectives: The study was conducted to estimate age and determine sex by measuring tooth pulp volume with the help of CBCT. An observational study of one year duration on CBCT data of individuals was conducted in Lucknow. Maxillary central incisors (CI) and maxillary canine (C) of the randomly selected samples were assessed for measurement of pulp volume using a software. Statistical analysis: Chi Square Test, Arithmetic Mean, Standard deviation, Pearson’s Correlation, Linear & Logistic regression analysis. Results: The CBCT data of Ninety individuals with age range between 18-70 years was evaluated for pulp volume of central incisor and canine (CI & C). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the tooth pulp volume (CI & C) and chronological age suggested that pulp volume decreased with age. The validation of the equations for sex determination showed higher prediction accuracy for CI (56.70%) and lower for C (53.30%).Conclusion: Pulp volume obtained from CBCT is a reliable indicator for age estimation and gender prediction.

Keywords: forensic, dental age, pulp volume, cone beam computed tomography

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18516 Variability of Hydrological Modeling of the Blue Nile

Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

Abstract:

The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, climate change, hydrological modeling, watershed

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18515 Forecasting Thermal Energy Demand in District Heating and Cooling Systems Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks

Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

Abstract:

To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

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18514 Evaluation of Corrosion Behaviour of Austenitic Steel 08Cr18Ni10Ti Exposed to Supercritical Water

Authors: Monika Šípová, Daniela Marušáková, Claudia Aparicio

Abstract:

New sources and ways of producing energy are still seeking, and one of the sustainable ways is Generation IV nuclear reactors. The supercritical water-cooled reactor is one of the six nuclear reactors of Generation IV, and as a consequence of the development of light water, reactors seem to be the most perspective. Thus, materials usually used in light water reactors are also tested under the expected operating conditions of the supercritical water-cooled reactor. Austenitic stainless steel 08Cr18Ni10Ti is widely used in the eastern types of light water nuclear power plants. Therefore, specimens of 08Cr18Ni10Ti were exposed to conditions close to the pseudo-critical point of water and high-temperature supercritical water. The description and evaluation of the corrosion behaviour of austenitic stainless steel have been done based on the results of X-ray diffraction in combination with energy dispersive spectroscopy and electron backscatter diffraction. Thus, significant differences have been found in the structure and composition of oxides formed depending on the temperature of exposure. The high temperature of supercritical water resulted in localised form of corrosion in contrast to the thin oxide layer of 1 µm present on the surface of specimens exposed close to the pseudo-critical point of water. The obtained results are important for further research as the supercritical water can be successfully used as a coolant for small modular reactors, which are currently of interest.

Keywords: localised corrosion, supercritical water, stainless steel, electron backscatter diffraction

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18513 Effect of Manganese Doping on Ferrroelectric Properties of (K0.485Na0.5Li0.015)(Nb0.98V0.02)O3 Lead-Free Piezoceramic

Authors: Chongtham Jiten, Radhapiyari Laishram, K. Chandramani Singh

Abstract:

Alkaline niobate (Na0.5K0.5)NbO3 ceramic system has attracted major attention in view of its potential for replacing the highly toxic but superior lead zirconate titanate (PZT) system for piezoelectric applications. Recently, a more detailed study of this system reveals that the ferroelectric and piezoelectric properties are optimized in the Li- and V-modified system having the composition (K0.485Na0.5Li0.015)(Nb0.98V0.02)O3. In the present work, we further study the pyroelectric behaviour of this composition along with another doped with Mn4+. So, (K0.485Na0.5Li0.015)(Nb0.98V0.02)O3 + x MnO2 (x = 0, and 0.01 wt. %) ceramic compositions were synthesized by conventional ceramic processing route. X-ray diffraction study reveals that both the undoped and Mn4+-doped ceramic samples prepared crystallize into a perovskite structure having orthorhombic symmetry. Dielectric study indicates that Mn4+ doping has little effect on both the Curie temperature (Tc) and tetragonal-orthorhombic phase transition temperature (Tot). The bulk density, room-temperature dielectric constant (εRT), and room-c The room-temperature coercive field (Ec) is observed to be lower in Mn4+ doped sample. The detailed analysis of the P-E hysteresis loops over the range of temperature from about room temperature to Tot points out that enhanced ferroelectric properties exist in this temperature range with better thermal stability for the Mn4+ doped ceramic. The study reveals that small traces of Mn4+ can modify (K0.485Na0.5Li0.015)(Nb0.98V0.02)O3 system so as to improve its ferroelectric properties with good thermal stability over a wide range of temperature.

Keywords: ceramics, dielectric properties, ferroelectric properties, lead-free, sintering, thermal stability

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18512 Investigating Citizens’ Perceptions and Attitudes toward China’s National Determined Contribution's Energy Restructuring Plan in Linfen City

Authors: Yuan Zhao, Phimsupha Kokchang

Abstract:

As a responsible nation, China has outlined its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of reaching peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Peak and carbon neutrality are tough goals to achieve, and China must undertake a shift to green energy. In contrast, China's existing energy consumption structure is unsustainable and heavily dependent on coal supplies. China must revise its energy mix planning in order to strengthen energy security and satisfy the requirement for low-carbon energy generation to mitigate climate change. Shanxi Province is one of China's most important coal-producing regions, and Linfen is one of the province's key economic towns. However, Shanxi Province's economic development is severely hampered by the region's high levels of pollution and energy consumption. The purpose of this study is to investigate Linfen citizens' perceptions and attitudes toward China's NDC's energy restructuring plan through questionnaires. The majority of respondents were aware of China's NDCs, as indicated by 402 valid responses to an online questionnaire. Furthermore, respondents' perceptions and attitudes toward renewable energy initiatives are growing. To ensure that the results were dependable and consistent, reliability and validity were examined. According to the findings, the majority of Linfen's citizens believe that renewable energy projects such as solar and wind, which are consistent with China's NDCs, may improve their quality of life, public health, and the nation's economy.

Keywords: China’s NDC, perceptions, attitudes, Linfen, energy restructuring

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18511 Preservice EFL Teachers in a Blended Professional Development Program: Learning to Teach Speech Acts

Authors: Mei-Hui Liu

Abstract:

This study examines the effectiveness of a blended professional development program on preservice EFL (English as a foreign language) teachers’ learning to teach speech acts with the advent of Information and Communication Technology, researchers and scholars underscore the significance of integrating online and face-to-face learning opportunities in the teacher education field. Yet, a paucity of evidence has been documented to investigate the extent to which such a blended professional learning model may impact real classroom practice and student learning outcome. This yearlong project involves various stakeholders, including 25 preservice teachers, 5 English professionals, and 45 secondary school students. Multiple data sources collected are surveys, interviews, reflection journals, online discussion messages, artifacts, and discourse completion tests. Relying on the theoretical lenses of Community of Inquiry, data analysis depicts the nature and process of preservice teachers’ professional development in this blended learning community, which triggers and fosters both face-to-face and synchronous/asynchronous online interactions among preservice teachers and English professionals (i.e., university faculty and in-service teachers). Also included is the student learning outcome after preservice teachers put what they learn from the support community into instructional practice. Pedagogical implications and research suggestions are further provided based on the research findings and limitations.

Keywords: blended professional development, preservice EFL teachers, speech act instruction, student learning outcome

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18510 Times2D: A Time-Frequency Method for Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Reza Nematirad, Anil Pahwa, Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Abstract:

Time series data consist of successive data points collected over a period of time. Accurate prediction of future values is essential for informed decision-making in several real-world applications, including electricity load demand forecasting, lifetime estimation of industrial machinery, traffic planning, weather prediction, and the stock market. Due to their critical relevance and wide application, there has been considerable interest in time series forecasting in recent years. However, the proliferation of sensors and IoT devices, real-time monitoring systems, and high-frequency trading data introduce significant intricate temporal variations, rapid changes, noise, and non-linearities, making time series forecasting more challenging. Classical methods such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing aim to extract pre-defined temporal variations, such as trends and seasonality. While these methods are effective for capturing well-defined seasonal patterns and trends, they often struggle with more complex, non-linear patterns present in real-world time series data. In recent years, deep learning has made significant contributions to time series forecasting. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their variants, such as Long short-term memory (LSTMs) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), have been widely adopted for modeling sequential data. However, they often suffer from the locality, making it difficult to capture local trends and rapid fluctuations. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), particularly Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), leverage convolutional layers to capture temporal dependencies by applying convolutional filters along the temporal dimension. Despite their advantages, TCNs struggle with capturing relationships between distant time points due to the locality of one-dimensional convolution kernels. Transformers have revolutionized time series forecasting with their powerful attention mechanisms, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and relationships between distant time points. However, the attention mechanism may struggle to discern dependencies directly from scattered time points due to intricate temporal patterns. Lastly, Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) have also been employed, with models like N-BEATS and LightTS demonstrating success. Despite this, MLPs often face high volatility and computational complexity challenges in long-horizon forecasting. To address intricate temporal variations in time series data, this study introduces Times2D, a novel framework that parallelly integrates 2D spectrogram and derivative heatmap techniques. The spectrogram focuses on the frequency domain, capturing periodicity, while the derivative patterns emphasize the time domain, highlighting sharp fluctuations and turning points. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of powerful computer vision techniques to capture various intricate temporal variations. To evaluate the performance of Times2D, extensive experiments were conducted on standard time series datasets and compared with various state-of-the-art algorithms, including DLinear (2023), TimesNet (2023), Non-stationary Transformer (2022), PatchTST (2023), N-HiTS (2023), Crossformer (2023), MICN (2023), LightTS (2022), FEDformer (2022), FiLM (2022), SCINet (2022a), Autoformer (2021), and Informer (2021) under the same modeling conditions. The initial results demonstrated that Times2D achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. Furthermore, the generality of the Times2D framework allows it to be applied to various tasks such as time series imputation, clustering, classification, and anomaly detection, offering potential benefits in any domain that involves sequential data analysis.

Keywords: derivative patterns, spectrogram, time series forecasting, times2D, 2D representation

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18509 The Cleaning Equipment to Prevents Dust Diffusion of Bus Air Filters

Authors: Jiraphorn Satechan, Thanaphon Khamthieng, Warunee Phanwong

Abstract:

This action research aimed at designing and developing the cleaning equipment to preventing dust diffusion of bus air filter. Quantitative and qualitative data collection methods were used to conduct data from October 1st, 2018 to September 30th, 2019. All of participants were male (100.0%) with aged 40- 49 years and 57.15%, of them finish bachelor degree. 71.43% of them was a driver and 57.15% of them had the working experience between 10 and 15 years. Research revealed that the participants assessed the quality of the bus air filter cleaning equipment for preventing dust diffusion at a moderate level (σ= 0.29), and 71.43 of them also suggested the development methods in order to improve the quality of bus air filters cleaning equipment as follows: 1) to install the circuit breaker for cutting the electricity and controlling the on-off of the equipment and to change the motor to the DC system, 2) should install the display monitor for wind pressure and electricity system as well as to install the air pressure gauge, 3) should install the tank lid lock for preventing air leakage and dust diffusion by increasing the blowing force and sucking power, 4) to stabilize the holding points for preventing the filter shaking while rotating and blowing for cleaning and to reduce the rotation speed in order to allow the filters to move slowly for the air system to blow for cleaning more thoroughly, 5) the amount of dust should be measured before and after cleaning and should be designed the cleaning equipment to be able to clean with a variety of filters, and sizes. Moreover, the light-weight materials should be used to build the cleaning equipment and the wheels should be installed at the base of the equipment in order to make it easier to move.

Keywords: Cleaning Equipment, Bus Air Filters, Preventing Dust Diffusion, Innovation

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18508 PaSA: A Dataset for Patent Sentiment Analysis to Highlight Patent Paragraphs

Authors: Renukswamy Chikkamath, Vishvapalsinhji Ramsinh Parmar, Christoph Hewel, Markus Endres

Abstract:

Given a patent document, identifying distinct semantic annotations is an interesting research aspect. Text annotation helps the patent practitioners such as examiners and patent attorneys to quickly identify the key arguments of any invention, successively providing a timely marking of a patent text. In the process of manual patent analysis, to attain better readability, recognising the semantic information by marking paragraphs is in practice. This semantic annotation process is laborious and time-consuming. To alleviate such a problem, we proposed a dataset to train machine learning algorithms to automate the highlighting process. The contributions of this work are: i) we developed a multi-class dataset of size 150k samples by traversing USPTO patents over a decade, ii) articulated statistics and distributions of data using imperative exploratory data analysis, iii) baseline Machine Learning models are developed to utilize the dataset to address patent paragraph highlighting task, and iv) future path to extend this work using Deep Learning and domain-specific pre-trained language models to develop a tool to highlight is provided. This work assists patent practitioners in highlighting semantic information automatically and aids in creating a sustainable and efficient patent analysis using the aptitude of machine learning.

Keywords: machine learning, patents, patent sentiment analysis, patent information retrieval

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18507 Valorization of Surveillance Data and Assessment of the Sensitivity of a Surveillance System for an Infectious Disease Using a Capture-Recapture Model

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

Abstract:

The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 282