Search results for: spatial model

Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda

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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.

Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Anurag Savarnya

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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Albert Gyamfi

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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: Sri E. Wati, D. Roswidyatmoko, N. Maslahatun, Gunawan, Andhika B. Taji

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Natural resource is the main sources to fulfill human needs. Its utilization must consider not only human prosperity but also sustainability. Balance of natural resources is a tool to manage natural wealth and to control land use change. This tool is needed to organize land use planning as stated on spatial plan in a certain region. Balance of natural resources can be calculated by comparing two-series of natural resource data obtained at different year. In this case, four years data period of land and forest were used (2010 and 2014). Land use data were acquired through satellite image interpretation and field checking. By means of GIS analysis, its result was then assessed with land use plan. It is intended to evaluate whether existing land use is suitable with land use plan. If it is improper, what kind of efforts and policies must be done to overcome the situation. Subosukawonosraten is rapid developed areas in Central Java Province. This region consists of seven regencies/cities which are Sukoharjo Regency, Boyolali Regency, Surakarta City, Karanganyar Regency, Wonogiri Regency, Sragen Regency, and Klaten Regency. This region is regarding to several former areas under Karasidenan Surakarta and their location is adjacent to Surakarta. Balance of forest resources show that width of forest area is not significantly changed. Some land uses within the area are slightly changed. Some rice field areas are converted into settlement (0.03%) whereas water bodies become vacant areas (0.09%). On the other hand, balance of land resources state that there are many land use changes in this region. Width area of rice field decreases 428 hectares and more than 50% of them have been transformed into settlement area and 11.21% is converted into buildings such as factories, hotels, and other infrastructures. It occurs mostly in Sragen, Sukoharjo, and Karanganyar Regency. The results illustrate that land use change in this region is mostly influenced by increasing of population number. Some agricultural lands have been converted into built-up area since demand of settlement, industrial area, and other infrastructures also increases. Unfortunately, recent utilization of more than a half of total area is not appropriate with land use plan declared in spatial planning document. It means, local government shall develop a strict regulation and law enforcement related to any violation in land use management.

Keywords: balance, forest, land, spatial plan

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Yilei Yu

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Modernism, emerging in the Western world of the 20th century, attempted to create a universal international style, which pulled the architectural and social systems created by classicism back to an initial pure state. However, out of the introspection of the Modernism, Regionalism attempted to restore a humanistic environment and create flexible buildings during the 1950s. Meanwhile, as the first generation of architects came back, the wind of the Regionalism blew to Taiwan. However, with the increasing of political influence and the tightening of free creative space, from the second half of the 1950s to the 1980s, the "real" Regional Architecture, which should have taken roots in Taiwan, becomes the "fake" Regional Architecture filled with the oriental charm. Through the Comparative Method, which includes description, interpretation, juxtaposition, and comparison, this study analyses the difference of the style of the Modernist Chinese Architecture between the period before the 1980s and the after. The paper aims at exploring the development of Regionalism Architecture in Taiwan, which includes three parts. First, the burgeoning period of the "modernist Chinese architecture" in Taiwan was the beginning of the Chinese Nationalist Party's coming to Taiwan to consolidate political power. The architecture of the "Ming and Qing Dynasty Palace Revival Style" dominated the architectural circles in Taiwan. These superficial "regional buildings" have nearly no combination with the local customs of Taiwan, which is difficult to evoke the social identity. Second, in the late 1970s, the second generation of architects headed by Baode Han began focusing on the research and preservation of traditional Taiwanese architecture, and creating buildings combined the terroirs of Taiwan through the imitation of styles. However, some scholars have expressed regret that very few regionalist architectural works that appeared in the 1980s can respond specifically to regional conditions and forms of construction. Instead, most of them are vocabulary-led representations. Third, during the 1990s, by the end of the period of martial law, community building gradually emerged, which made the object of Taiwan's architectural concern gradually extended to the folk and ethnic groups. In the Yilan area, there are many architects who care about the local environment, such as the Field office Architects. Compared with the hollow regionality of the passionate national spirits that emerged during the martial law period, the local practice of the architect team in Yilan can better link the real local environmental life and reflect the true regionality. In conclusion, with the local practice case of the huge construction team in Yilan area, this paper focuses on the Spatial Practice by the Field office Architects to explore the spatial representation of the space and the practical enlightenment in the process of modernist Chinese architecture development in Taiwan.

Keywords: regionalism, modernism, Chinese architecture, political landscape, spatial representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Devin Simmons

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At the USDOT’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics, a biannual census of ferry operators in the U.S. is conducted, with results such as route mileage used to determine federal funding levels for operators. AIS data allows for the possibility of using GIS software and geographical methods to confirm operator-reported mileage for individual ferry routes. As part of the USDOT’s work on the ferry census, an algorithm was developed that uses AIS data for ferry vessels in conjunction with known ferry terminal locations to model the average route travelled for use as both a cartographic product and confirmation of operator-reported mileage. AIS data from each vessel is first analyzed to determine individual journeys based on the vessel’s velocity, and changes in velocity over time. These trips are then converted to geographic linestring objects. Using the terminal locations, the algorithm then determines whether the trip represented a known ferry route. Given a large enough dataset, routes will be represented by multiple trip linestrings, which are then filtered by DBSCAN spatial clustering to remove outliers. Finally, these remaining trips are ready to be averaged into one route. The algorithm interpolates the point on each trip linestring that represents the start point. From these start points, a centroid is calculated, and the first point of the average route is determined. Each trip is interpolated again to find the point that represents one percent of the journey’s completion, and the centroid of those points is used as the next point in the average route, and so on until 100 points have been calculated. Routes created using this algorithm have shown demonstrable improvement over previous methods, which included the implementation of a LOESS model. Additionally, the algorithm greatly reduces the amount of manual digitizing needed to visualize ferry activity.

Keywords: ferry vessels, transportation, modeling, AIS data

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Authors: Amal Hentati, Mbarka Selmi, Tarek Kormi, Julien Baroth, Barthelemy Harthong

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The impact of uncertainties on the performance assessment of shallow foundations is often significant. The need of the geotechnical engineers to a more objective and rigorous description of soil variations permitting to quantify these uncertainties and to incorporate them into calculation methods led to the development of reliability approaches. In this context, a mechanical-reliability coupling was developed in this paper, using a program coded in Matlab and the finite element software Abaqus, for the bearing capacity assessment of shallow foundations. The reliability analysis, based on the finite element method, assumed both soil cohesion and friction angle as uncertain parameters characterized by normal or lognormal probability distributions. The inherent spatial variability of both soil properties was, then, taken into account using 1D stationary random fields. The application of the proposed methodology to a shallow foundation subjected to a centered vertical loading permitted to highlight the proposed process interest. Findings proved the insufficiency of the conventional approach to predict the foundation failure and a high sensitivity of the ultimate loads to the soil properties uncertainties, mainly those related to the friction angle, was noted. Moreover, an asymmetry of both displacement and velocity fields was obtained.

Keywords: mechanical-reliability coupling, finite element method, shallow foundation, random fields, spatial variability

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Melik Kara, Gulsah Tulger Kara

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The soil is a crucial component of the ecosystem, and in industrial and urban areas it receives large amounts of trace elements from several sources. Therefore, accumulated pollutants in surface soils can be transported to different environmental components, such as deep soil, water, plants, and dust particles. While elemental contamination of soils is caused mainly by atmospheric deposition, soil also affects the air quality since enriched trace elemental contents in atmospheric particulate matter originate from resuspension of polluted soils. The objectives of this study were to determine the total and leachate concentrations of trace elements in soils of city area in Izmir and characterize their spatial distribution and to identify the possible sources of trace elements in surface soils. The surface soil samples were collected from 20 sites. They were analyzed for total element concentrations and leachate concentrations. Analyses of trace elements (Ag, Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, Fe, Ga, Gd, Hf, Ho, K, La, Li, Lu, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nd, Ni, P, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Si, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tb, Th, Ti, Tl, Tm, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn and Zr) were carried out using ICP-MS (Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer). The elemental concentrations were calculated along with overall median, kurtosis, and skewness statistics. Elemental composition indicated that the soil samples were dominated by crustal elements such as Si, Al, Fe, Ca, K, Mg and the sea salt element, Na which is typical for Aegean region. These elements were followed by Ti, P, Mn, Ba and Sr. On the other hand, Zn, Cr, V, Pb, Cu, and Ni (which are anthropogenic based elements) were measured as 61.6, 39.4, 37.9, 26.9, 22.4, and 19.4 mg/kg dw, respectively. The leachate element concentrations were showed similar sorting although their concentrations were much lower than total concentrations. In the study area, the spatial distribution patterns of elemental concentrations varied among sampling sites. The highest concentrations were measured in the vicinity of industrial areas and main roads. To determine the relationships among elements and to identify the possible sources, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) was applied to the data. The analysis resulted in six factors. The first factor exhibited high loadings of Co, K, Mn, Rb, V, Al, Fe, Ni, Ga, Se, and Cr. This factor could be interpreted as residential heating because of Co, K, Rb, and Se. The second factor associated positively with V, Al, Fe, Na, Ba, Ga, Sr, Ti, Se, and Si. Therefore, this factor presents mixed city dust. The third factor showed high loadings with Fe, Ni, Sb, As, Cr. This factor could be associated with industrial facilities. The fourth factor associated with Cu, Mo, Zn, Sn which are the marker elements of traffic. The fifth factor presents crustal dust, due to its high correlation with Si, Ca, and Mg. The last factor is loaded with Pb and Cd emitted from industrial activities.

Keywords: trace elements, surface soil, source apportionment, Izmir

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: Sean Paulsen, Michael Casey

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In this work we present a self-supervised pretraining framework for transformers on functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data. First, we pretrain our architecture on two self-supervised tasks simultaneously to teach the model a general understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of human auditory cortex during music listening. Our pretraining results are the first to suggest a synergistic effect of multitask training on fMRI data. Second, we finetune the pretrained models and train additional fresh models on a supervised fMRI classification task. We observe significantly improved accuracy on held-out runs with the finetuned models, which demonstrates the ability of our pretraining tasks to facilitate transfer learning. This work contributes to the growing body of literature on transformer architectures for pretraining and transfer learning with fMRI data, and serves as a proof of concept for our pretraining tasks and multitask pretraining on fMRI data.

Keywords: transfer learning, fMRI, self-supervised, brain decoding, transformer, multitask training

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

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Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

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Authors: Ahmad Torkaman, Suogol Shomtob, Hadi Akbari Seddigh

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In this paper it has been attempted to investigate the lack of attention to how specific spatial characteristics of the children except existing places such as nurseries. In order to achieve the standard center to faster children understanding their mentality is the first issue that must be studied. Exploring the spiritual characteristics and complexities of children cannot be possible except in accordance with the different aspects and background of their growth in various age periods. In order to achieving the standard center for fostering children, the first issue that must be studied understands their mentality. Exploring the spiritual qualities and complexities of children are not provided except in accordance with the characteristics and their different growth backgrounds in different age periods. According to previous researches game or playing is the most important activity that helps children to communicate and educate and sometimes therapy in specific fields. Investigating game as a proper way to train, the variety of games, the various kind of play environment and how to treat some abnormalities thereby are the issues discussed in recent research. Another consideration concerns the importance of artistic activities among children which is very evident in studying identification of their abnormalities. At the end of this study after investigating how to understand child and communicate with him/her, aiming to recognize Specific spatial characteristics for better training children, the physical and physiological criteria and characteristics is Reviewed and ends up to a list of required spaces and dimensional characteristic of spaces and needed children's equipment.

Keywords: children, space, interior design, development, growth

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Authors: Claudia Trillo

Abstract:

Regional innovation eco-ecosystems are composed of a variety of interconnected urban innovation eco-systems, mutually reinforcing each other and making the whole territorial system successful. Combining principles drawn from the new economic growth theory and from the socio-constructivist approach to the economic growth, with the new geography of innovation emerging from the networked nature of innovation districts, this paper explores the spatial configuration of urban innovation districts, with the aim of unveiling replicable spatial patterns and transferable portfolios of urban policies. While some authors suggest that cities should be considered ideal natural clusters, supporting cross-fertilization and innovation thanks to the physical setting they provide to the construction of collective knowledge, still a considerable distance persists between regional development strategies and urban policies. Moreover, while public and private policies supporting entrepreneurship normally consider innovation as the cornerstone of any action aimed at uplifting the competitiveness and economic success of a certain area, a growing body of literature suggests that innovation is non-neutral, hence, it should be constantly assessed against equity and social inclusion. This paper draws from a robust qualitative empirical dataset gathered through 4-years research conducted in Boston to provide readers with an evidence-based set of recommendations drawn from the lessons learned through the investigation of the chosen innovation districts in the Boston area. The evaluative framework used for assessing the overall performance of the chosen case studies stems from the Habitat III Sustainable Development Goals rationale. The concept of inclusive growth has been considered essential to assess the social innovation domain in each of the chosen cases. The key success factors for the development of the Boston innovation ecosystem can be generalized as follows: 1) a quadruple helix model embedded in the physical structure of the two cities (Boston and Cambridge), in which anchor Higher Education (HE) institutions continuously nurture the Entrepreneurial Environment. 2) an entrepreneurial approach emerging from the local governments, eliciting risk-taking and bottom-up civic participation in tackling key issues in the city. 3) a networking structure of some intermediary actors supporting entrepreneurial collaboration, cross-fertilization and co-creation, which collaborate at multiple-scales thus enabling positive spillovers from the stronger to the weaker contexts. 4) awareness of the socio-economic value of the built environment as enabler of cognitive networks allowing activation of the collective intelligence. 5) creation of civic-led spaces enabling grassroot collaboration and cooperation. Evidence shows that there is not a single magic recipe for the successful implementation of place-based and social innovation-driven strategies. On the contrary, the variety of place-grounded combinations of micro and macro initiatives, embedded in the social and spatial fine grain of places and encompassing a diversity of actors, can create the conditions enabling places to thrive and local economic activities to grow in a sustainable way.

Keywords: innovation-driven sustainable Eco-systems , place-based sustainable urban development, sustainable innovation districts, social innovation, urban policie

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Authors: K. Ismail, A. Ali, R. C. Hasan, I. Khalil, Z. Bachok, N. M. Said, A. M. Muslim, M. S. Che Din, W. S. Chong

Abstract:

The marine ecosystem in Malaysia holds invaluable potential in terms of economics, food security, pharmaceuticals components and protection from natural hazards. Although exploration of oil and gas industry and fisheries are active within Malaysian waters, knowledge of the seascape and ecological functioning of benthic habitats is still extremely poor in the marine parks around Malaysia due to the lack of detailed seafloor information. Consequently, it is difficult to manage marine resources effectively, protect ecologically important areas and set legislation to safeguard the marine parks. The limited baseline data hinders scientific linkage to support effective marine spatial management in Malaysia. This became the main driver behind the first seabed mapping effort at the national level. Taman Laut Labuan (TLL) is located to the west coast of Sabah and to the east of South China Sea. The total area of TLL is approximately 158.15 km2, comprises of three islands namely Pulau Kuraman, Rusukan Besar and Rusukan Kecil and is characterised by shallow fringing reef with few submerged shallow reef. The unfamiliar rocky shorelines limit the survey of multibeam echosounder to area with depth more than 10 m. Whereas, singlebeam and side scan sonar systems were used to acquire the data for area with depth less than 10 m. By integrating data from multibeam bathymetry and backscatter with singlebeam bathymetry and side sonar images, we produce a substrate map and coral coverage map for the TLL using i) marine landscape mapping technique and ii) RSOBIA ArcGIS toolbar (developed by T. Le Bas). We take the initiative to explore the ability of aerial drone and satellite image (WorldView-3) to derive the depths and substrate type within the intertidal and subtidal zone where it is not accessible via acoustic mapping. Although the coverage was limited, the outcome showed a promising technique to be incorporated towards establishing a guideline to facilitate a standard practice for efficient marine spatial management in Malaysia.

Keywords: habitat mapping, marine spatial management, South China Sea, National seabed mapping

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Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn

Abstract:

We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.

Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche

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Authors: Jiri Dufek

Abstract:

The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri

Abstract:

Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.

Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’

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Authors: Arturo S. Daag, Ira Karrel D. L. San Jose, Mike Gabriel G. Pedrosa, Ken Adrian C. Villarias, Rayfred P. Ingeniero, Cyrah Gale H. Rocamora, Margarita P. Dizon, Roland Joseph B. De Leon, Teresito C. Bacolcol

Abstract:

The province of Leyte consists of various geomorphological landforms: These are: a) landforms of tectonic origin transect large part of the volcanic centers in upper Ormoc area; b) landforms of volcanic origin, several inactive volcanic centers located in Upper Ormoc are transected by Philippine Fault; c) landforms of volcano-denudational and denudational slopes dominates the area where most of the earthquake-induced landslide occurred; and d) Colluvium and alluvial deposits dominate the foot slope of Ormoc and Jaro-Pastrana plain. Earthquake ground acceleration and geotechnical properties of various landforms are crucial for landslide studies. To generate the landslide critical acceleration model of sliding block, various data were considered, these are: geotechnical data (i.e., soil and rock strength parameters), slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), landslide inventory, soil map, geologic maps for the calculation of the factor of safety. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) surveying methods, refraction microtremor (ReMi), and three-component microtremor (3CMT) were conducted to measure site period and surface wave velocity as well as to create a soil thickness model. Critical acceleration model of various geomorphological unit using Remote Sensing, field geotechnical, geophysical, and geospatial data collected from the areas affected by the 06 July 2017 M6.5 Leyte earthquake. Spatial analysis of earthquake-induced landslide from the 06 July 2017, were then performed to assess the relationship between the calculated critical acceleration and peak ground acceleration. The observed trends proved helpful in establishing the role of critical acceleration as a determining factor in the distribution of co-seismic landslides.

Keywords: earthquake-induced landslide, remote sensing, geomorphology, seismic response

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