Search results for: risk management model

Authors: Irni Rahmayani Johan, Ira Kamelia

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One of the impacts of the rapid advancement of technology is the rise of digital finance, including peer-to-peer lending (P2P). P2P lending has been widely marketed, including an online student loan that used the P2P platform. This study aims to analyze the effect of financial literacy, perception of debt, and perception of risk toward student willingness to use the online student loan (P2P lending). Using a cross-sectional study design, in collecting the data this study employed an online survey method, with a total sample of 280 undergraduate students of IPB university, Indonesia. This study found that financial literacy, perception of debt, perception of risk, and interest in using online student loans are categorized as low level. While the level of knowledge is found to be the lowest, the first-year students showed a higher level in terms of willingness to use the online student loan. In addition, the second year students recorded a positive perception toward debt. This study showed that level of study, attendance in personal finance course, and student’ GPA is positively related to financial knowledge. While debt perception is negatively related to financial attitudes. Similarly, the negative relationship is found between risk perception and the willingness to use the online student loan. The determinant factor of the willingness to use online student loans is the level of study, debt perception, financial risk perception, and time risk perception. Students with a higher level of study are more likely to have a lower interest in using online student loans. Moreover, students who perceived debt as a financial stimulator, as well as those with higher level of financial risk perceptions and time risk perceptions, tend to show more interest to use the loan.

Keywords: financial literacy, willingness to use, online student loan, perception of risk, perception of debt

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: G. Yanay-Ventura, H. Desivilya Syna, K. Michael

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Social businesses are based on the idea that an enterprise can be established for the sake of profit and, at the same time, with the aim of fulfilling social goals. Yet, the question of how these goals can be integrated in practice to derive parallel benefit in both realms still needs to be examined. Particularly notable in this context is the ‘governance challenge’ of social businesses, meaning the danger of the mission drifts from the social goal in the pursuit of good business. This study is based on an evaluation study of a social business that operates as a restaurant providing professional training to at-risk youth. The evaluation was based on the collection of a variety of data through interviews with stakeholders in the enterprise (directors and managers, business partners, social partners, and position holders in the restaurant and the social enterprise), a focus group consisting of the youth receiving the professional training, observations of the restaurant’s operation, and analysis of the social enterprise’s primary documents. The evaluation highlighted significant strengths of the social enterprise, including reaching relatively fast business sustainability, effective management of the restaurant, stable employment of the restaurant staff, and effective management of the social project. The social enterprise and business management have both enjoyed positive evaluations from a variety of stakeholders. Clearly, the restaurant was deemed by all a promising young business. However, the social project suffered from a 90% dropout rate among the youth entering its ranks, extreme monthly fluctuation in the number of youths participating, and a distinct minority of the youth who have succeeded in completing their training period. Possible explanations of the high dropout rate included the small number of cooks, which impeded the effectiveness of the training process and the provision of advanced cooking skills; lack of clarity regarding the essence and the elements of training; and lack of a meaningful peer group for the youth engaged in the program. Paradoxically, despite the stakeholders’ great appreciation for the social enterprise, the challenge of governability was also formidable, revealing a tangible risk of mission drift in the reduction of the social enterprise’s target population and a breach of the commitment made to the youth with regard to practical training. The risk of mission drifts emerged as a hidden and evasive issue for the stakeholders, who revealed a deep appreciation for the management and the outcomes of the social enterprise. The challenge of integration, therefore, requires an in-depth examination of how to maintain a successful business without hindering the achievement of the social goal. The study concludes that clear conceptualization of the training process and its aims, increased cooks’ participation in the social project, and novel conceptions with regard to the evaluation of success could serve to benefit the youth and impede mission drift.

Keywords: evaluation study, management, mission drift, social business

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Authors: Arianna Nativio, Zoran Kapelan, Jan Peter van der Hoek

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Bio-composite materials are becoming increasingly popular in various applications, such as the automotive industry. Usually, bio-composite materials are made from natural resources recovered from plants, now, a new type of bio-composite material has begun to be produced in the Netherlands. This material is made from resources recovered from drinking water treatments (calcite), wastewater treatment (cellulose), and material from surface water management (aquatic plants). Surface water, raw drinking water, and wastewater can be contaminated with pathogens and chemical compounds. Therefore, it would be valuable to develop a framework to assess, monitor, and control the potential risks. Indeed, the goal is to define the major risks in terms of human health, quality of materials, and environment associated with the production and application of these new materials. This study describes the general risk assessment framework, starting with a qualitative risk assessment. The qualitative risk analysis was carried out by using the HAZOP methodology for the hazard identification phase. The HAZOP methodology is logical and structured and able to identify the hazards in the first stage of the design when hazards and associated risks are not well known. The identified hazards were analyzed to define the potential associated risks, and then these were evaluated by using the qualitative Event Tree Analysis. ETA is a logical methodology used to define the consequences for a specific hazardous incidents, evaluating the failure modes of safety barriers and dangerous intermediate events that lead to the final scenario (risk). This paper shows the effectiveness of combining of HAZOP and qualitative ETA methodologies for hazard identification and risk mapping. Then, key risks were identified, and a quantitative framework was developed based on the type of risks identified, such as QMRA and QCRA. These two models were applied to assess human health risks due to the presence of pathogens and chemical compounds such as heavy metals into the bio-composite materials. Thus, due to these contaminations, the bio-composite product, during its application, might release toxic substances into the environment leading to a negative environmental impact. Therefore, leaching tests are going to be planned to simulate the application of these materials into the environment and evaluate the potential leaching of inorganic substances, assessing environmental risk.

Keywords: bio-composite, risk assessment, water reuse, resource recovery

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Authors: Siyathorn Khunon, Thanawit Buafai

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This paper aims to investigate management of beach safety with a focus on tourist drownings in Samui. The data collected in this investigation will then lead to the proposal of a practical management model suitable for use in Samui. Qualitative research was conducted in the following manner: nine stakeholders from local government organizations and tourism businesses were interviewed in-depth. Additionally, a best practice case study from Phuket was applied to analyze beach safety. Twelve foreign tourists were also interviewed. Then, a focus group comprised of 32 people was used to determine practical solutions for enhancing tourists’ safety on the beach in Samui. A steering committee to coordinate between public and private organizations was proposed to manage and enhance tourists’ safety. A practical model is proposed to increase the safety level of tourists in Samui

Keywords: beach safety, drowning, tourist, Samui

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Authors: Lesa A. Thompson, Yoshinori Ikenaka, Victor Wepener, Mayumi Ishizuka

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One method for controlling malaria in endemic regions is the killing of vector mosquitoes using pesticides such as DDT in indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study was carried out to investigate the presence of and human health risk due to DDT and its metabolites (collectively, DDTs) contaminating human food sources in areas where DDT is used for IRS. Free-range chicken products (meat and eggs) were collected from homesteads in KwaZulu-Natal Province in the northeast of South Africa, and fish meat samples from Maputo Bay in neighbouring Mozambique. Samples were analysed for DDTs (o,p’-DDT, p,p’-DDT, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDE and p,p’-DDE) using a gas chromatograph with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). DDTs were detected in all food types, with the predominant congener being p,p’-DDE. The presence of p,p’-DDT confirmed recent release of DDT into the environment. By using concentration levels detected in foods and national consumption levels, the risk to human health through consumption of such food products was calculated. In order of risk level, these were: chicken eggs > chicken meat > fish meat. Human risk (carcinogenic) values greater than one suggest there is an increased health risk through consumption of these foods.

Keywords: DDT, food contamination, human health risk, Mozambique, South Africa

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Authors: Malki Nadia Fatima Zahra, Kellal Cheimaa, Brahimi Houria

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Aim of the study is to show the role of total Quality Management on firm performance; the research relied on the views of sample managers working in the Marinel pharmaceutical company. The research aims to achieve many objectives, including increasing awareness of the concepts of Total Quality Management on Firm Performance, especially in the manufacturing firm, providing a future vision of the possibility of success, and the actual application of the Principles of Total Quality Management in the manufacturing company. The research adopted a default model was built after a review and analysis of the literature review in the context of one hypothesis main points at the origin of a group of sub-hypotheses. The research presented a set of conclusions, and the most important of these conclusions was there is a relationship between the Principles of TQM and Firm Performance.

Keywords: total quality management, TQM dimension, firm performance, strategies

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Authors: Maximilian Cedzich, Ingo Dietz Von Bayer, Roland Jochem

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In order for industrial companies to continue to succeed in dynamic, globalized markets, they must be able to train their employees in an agile manner and at short notice in line with the exogenous conditions that arise. For this purpose, it is indispensable to operate a proactive competence management system for employees that recognizes qualification needs timely in order to be able to address them promptly through qualification measures. However, there are hardly any approaches to be found in the literature that includes systematic, proactive competence management. In order to help close this gap, this publication presents a process model that systematically develops bottom-up, future-oriented target competence profiles based on the tasks of the employees. Concretely, in the first step, the tasks of the individual employees are examined for assumed future conditions. In other words, qualitative scenarios are considered for the individual tasks to determine how they are likely to change. In a second step, these scenario-based future tasks are translated into individual future-related target competencies of the employee using a matrix of generic task properties. The final step pursues the goal of validating the target competence profiles formed in this way within the framework of a management workshop. This process model provides industrial companies with a tool that they can use to determine the competencies required by their own employees in the future and compare them with the actual prevailing competencies. If gaps are identified between the target and the actual, these qualification requirements can be closed in the short term by means of qualification measures.

Keywords: dynamic globalized markets, employee competence management, industrial companies, knowledge management

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Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute

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Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.

Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody

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Authors: Amin Padash, Javad Kazem Zadeh Khoiy, Hossein Vahidi

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Purpose: The mechanization system for the urban services was implemented in Tehran City in the year 2004 to promote the collection of domestic wastes; in 2010, in order to achieve the objectives of the project of urban services mechanization and qualitative promotion and improve the urban living environment, sustainable development and optimization of the recyclable solid wastes collection systems as well as other dry and non-organic wastes and conformity of the same to the modern urban management methods regarding integration of the mechanized urban services contractors and recycling contractors and in order to better and more correct fulfillment of the waste separation and considering the success of the mechanization plan of the dry wastes in most of the modern countries. The aim of this research is analyzing of Environmental Risk Assessment of the mechanization waste collection scheme in Tehran. Case Study: Tehran, the capital of Iran, with the population of 8.2 million people, occupies 730 km land expanse, which is 4% of total area of country. Tehran generated 2,788,912 ton (7,641 ton/day) of waste in year 2008. Hospital waste generation rate in Tehran reaches 83 ton/day. Almost 87% of total waste was disposed of by placing in a landfill located in Kahrizak region. This large amount of waste causes a significant challenge for the city. Methodology: To conduct the study, the methodology proposed in the standard Mil-St-88213 is used. This method is an efficient method to examine the position in opposition to the various processes and the action is effective. The method is based on the method of Military Standard and Specialized in the military to investigate and evaluate options to locate and identify the strengths and weaknesses of powers to decide on the best determining strategy has been used. Finding and Conclusion: In this study, the current status of mechanization systems to collect waste and identify its possible effects on the environment through a survey and assessment methodology Mil-St-88213, and then the best plan for action and mitigation of environmental risk has been proposed as Environmental Management Plan (EMP).

Keywords: environmental risk assessment, mechanization waste collection scheme, Mil-St-88213

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Authors: Muhammad Tariq, Hammad Tahir, Fawwad Mahmood Butt

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Purpose: This study attempts to examine the best forecasting methodologies in the time series. The time series forecasting models such as VAR, ARCH and the ARMA are considered for the analysis. Methodology: The Bench Marks or the parameters such as Adjusted R square, F-stats, Durban Watson, and Direction of the roots have been critically and empirically analyzed. The empirical analysis consists of time series data of Consumer Price Index and Closing Stock Price. Findings: The results show that the VAR model performed better in comparison to other models. Both the reliability and significance of VAR model is highly appreciable. In contrary to it, the ARCH model showed very poor results for forecasting. However, the results of ARMA model appeared double standards i.e. the AR roots showed that model is stationary and that of MA roots showed that the model is invertible. Therefore, the forecasting would remain doubtful if it made on the bases of ARMA model. It has been concluded that VAR model provides best forecasting results. Practical Implications: This paper provides empirical evidences for the application of time series forecasting model. This paper therefore provides the base for the application of best time series forecasting model.

Keywords: forecasting, time series, auto regression, ARCH, ARMA

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Authors: Olga A. Shvetsova

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The paper contains the different issues of competence management in industrial companies. The theoretical bases of human resources management and practical issues of innovative enterprises’ competitiveness are considered. The research is focused on the modern industrial enterprise changes management problems; it focuses on the effective personnel management of industrial enterprises on the basis of competence approach. The influence of organizational changes on the competence development is discussed. The need for development of the new technologies is mentioned, proposal is based on competence-based approach in personnel management including in the conditions of carrying out organizational changes; methods of acquisition and development of missing key professional competences are discussed; importance of key competencies in forming competitive advantage of the organization is mentioned.

Keywords: competence model, core competencies, development of industrial company, organizational changes, competitiveness

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Janani Selvaraj, M. Prashanthi Devi, P. B. Harathi

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Epidemiologic studies conducted over several decades have provided evidence to suggest that long-term exposure to elevated ambient levels of particulate air pollution is associated with increased mortality. Air quality risk management is significant in developing countries and it highlights the need to understand the role of ecologic covariates in the association between air pollution and mortality. Several new methods show promise in exploring the geographical distribution of disease and the identification of high risk areas using epidemiological maps. However, the addition of the temporal attribute would further give us an in depth idea of the disease burden with respect to forecasting measures. In recent years, new methods developed in the reanalysis were useful for exploring the spatial structure of the data and the impact of spatial autocorrelation on estimates of risk associated with exposure to air pollution. Based on this, our present study aims to explore the spatial and temporal distribution of the lung cancer cases in the Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu in relation to air pollution risk areas. A spatio temporal moving average method was computed using the CrimeStat software and visualized in ArcGIS 10.1 to document the spatio temporal movement of the disease in the study region. The random walk analysis performed showed the progress of the peak cancer incidences in the intersection regions of the Coimbatore North and South taluks that include major commercial and residential regions like Gandhipuram, Peelamedu, Ganapathy, etc. Our study shows evidence that daily exposure to high air pollutant concentration zones may lead to the risk of lung cancer. The observations from the present study will be useful in delineating high risk zones of environmental exposure that contribute to the increase of cancer among daily commuters. Through our study we suggest that spatially resolved exposure models in relevant time frames will produce higher risks zones rather than solely on statistical theory about the impact of measurement error and the empirical findings.

Keywords: air pollution, cancer, spatio-temporal analysis, India

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Authors: Arpine Maghakyan

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The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the level of industry digitalization and audit fees, especially, the relationship between Big 4 auditor fees and industry digitalization level. On the one hand, automation of business processes decreases internal control weakness and manual mistakes; increases work effectiveness and integrations. On the other hand, it may cause serious misstatements, high business risks or even bankruptcy, typically in early stages of automation. Incomplete automation can bring high audit risk especially if the auditor does not fully understand client’s business automation model. Higher audit risk consequently will cause higher audit fees. Higher audit fees for clients with high automation level are more highlighted in Big 4 auditor’s behavior. Using data of US firms from 2005-2015, we found that industry level digitalization is an interaction for the auditor quality on audit fees. Moreover, the choice of Big4 or non-Big4 is correlated with client’s industry digitalization level. Big4 client, which has higher digitalization level, pays more than one with low digitalization level. In addition, a high-digitalized firm that has Big 4 auditor pays higher audit fee than non-Big 4 client. We use audit fees and firm-specific variables from Audit Analytics and Compustat databases. We analyze collected data by using fixed effects regression methods and Wald tests for sensitivity check. We use fixed effects regression models for firms for determination of the connections between technology use in business and audit fees. We control for firm size, complexity, inherent risk, profitability and auditor quality. We chose fixed effects model as it makes possible to control for variables that have not or cannot be measured.

Keywords: audit fees, auditor quality, digitalization, Big4

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Authors: Hasan Farahneh

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Smart asset management along roadsides and in deserted areas is a topic of deprived attention. We find most of the work in emergency reporting services in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and rural areas but not much in asset reporting. Currently, available asset management mechanisms are based on scheduled maintenance and do not effectively report any emergency situation in a timely manner. This paper is the continuation of our previous work, in which we proposed the usage of Foglets and VLC link between smart vehicles and road side assets. In this paper, we propose a hybrid communication system for asset management and emergency reporting architecture for smart transportation. We incorporate Foglets along with visible light communication (VLC) and radio frequency (RF) communication. We present the channel model and parameters of a hybrid model to support an intelligent transportation system (ITS) system. Simulations show high improvement in the system performance in terms of communication range and received data. We present a comparative analysis of a hybrid ITS system.

Keywords: Internet of Things, Foglets, VLC, RF, smart vehicle, roadside asset management

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Authors: M. Chumburidze, N. Salia, T. Namchevadze

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This work deal with case processing problems in business. The task of strategic credit requirements management of cases portfolio is discussed. The information model of credit requirements in a binary tree diagram is considered. The algorithms to solve issues of prioritizing clusters of cases in business have been investigated. An implementation of priority queues to support case management operations has been presented. The corresponding pseudo codes for the programming application have been constructed. The tools applied in this development are based on binary tree ordering algorithms, optimization theory, and business management methods.

Keywords: credit network, case portfolio, binary tree, priority queue, stack

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Authors: Singh Baljinder, Sharma Navneet

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Microalbuminuria is the earliest detectable marker of diabetic nephropathy. We planned to evaluate the prevalence of microalbuminuria in type 1 diabetics and correlate with various risk factor. We randomly selected 100 type 1 diabetic patients after inclusion and exclusion criteria from DCRC, S. P. Medical College, Bikaner. Clinical examinations for anthropometeric parameters, hypertension, retinopathy, glycaemic status, lipid profile were done and microalbuminuria was estimated by micral test. Microalbuminuria was seen in 38% patients. The mean urinary albumin concentration was 96.61 mg/l in microalbuminuria positive cases, 134 mg/L in hypertensive patients while 74.5 mg/L in normal patients. Mean diabetic duration was 6.43 years in microalbuminurics. Albumin excretion increased significantly with age at onset of 10-18 years and declined thereafter. Microalbuminuria cases exhibited mean cholesterol 181.63 mg%, TG 130.94 mg%, LDL 109.87 mg%, HDL 57.5 mg% and VLDL 30.64 mg%. Mean urinary albumin concentration in patients with retinopathy was 160.52 mg/L while 78.66 mg/L without retinopathy. In multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis, a strong positive association was seen between microalbuminuria and hypertension (OR=5.087, CI=2.1319-12.101), fasting blood sugar (OR=3. 491, CI=1.138-10.70), duration of diabetes (OR=3.41, CI=1.360-8.55) and HbA1c (OR=2.381, CI-=1.1-5.64). The present study indicates that microalbuminuria is a common complication of type 1 diabetes mellitus and can be prevented by careful management of risk factors.

Keywords: type 1 diabetes, microalbuminuria, diabetic nephropathy, retinopathy, hypertension

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Authors: Birce Boga Bakirli

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In this paper, we investigate ideas on human capital development and management in industries. We structured a model to be able to gather the data from the interviews conducted with worker, specialists and owners of companies. Different aspects of the situation are found in these interviews, and we used the information to model the benefit of the business owners and workers perspectives. These are modelled as a bi-level programming problem. Several instances of the generic cases are solved. The results show the importance of education within and out of the company for workers, and it returns for the company.

Keywords: bi-level programming, corporate strategy, cost tradeoffs, human capital, mixed integer programming, Stackelberg game, supplier relations, strategic planning

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Authors: Greg Zimmerman

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Background: Major depression is a common illness that affects millions of people globally. It is the leading cause of disability and is projected to become the number one cause of the global burden of disease by 2030. Many of those who suffer from depression also suffer from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). Acupuncture has been shown to help depression. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of acupuncture in reducing the risk of IBS in patients with depression. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with depression through the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Propensity score matching was used to match equal numbers (n=32971) of the acupuncture cohort and no-acupuncture cohort based on characteristics including sex, age, baseline comorbidity, and medication. The Cox regression model was used to compare the hazard ratios (HRs) of IBS in the two cohorts. Results: The basic characteristics of the two groups were similar. The cumulative incidence of IBS was significantly lower in the acupuncture cohort than in the no-acupuncture cohort (Log-rank test, p<0.001). Conclusion: The results provided real-world evidence that acupuncture may have a beneficial effect on IBS risk reduction in patients with depression.

Keywords: acupuncture, depression, irritable bowel syndrome, national health insurance research database, real-world evidence

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Authors: Tanka Nath Dahal

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Community-based forestry is seen as a promising instrument for sustainable forest management (SFM) through the purposeful involvement of local communities. Globally, forest area managed by local communities is on the rise. However, transferring management responsibilities to forest users alone cannot guarantee the sustainability of forest management. A monitoring tool, that allows the local communities to track the progress of forest management towards the goal of sustainability, is essential. A case study, including six forest user groups (FUGs), two from each three community-based forestry models—community forestry (CF), buffer zone community forestry (BZCF), and collaborative forest management (CFM) representing three different physiographic regions, was conducted in Nepal. The study explores which community-based forest management model (CF, BZCF or CFM) is doing well in terms of sustainable forest management. The study assesses the overall performance of the three models towards SFM using locally developed criteria (four), indicators (26) and verifiers (60). This paper attempts to quantify the sustainability of the models using sustainability index for individual criteria (SIIC), and overall sustainability index (OSI). In addition, rating to the criteria and scoring of the verifiers by the FUGs were done. Among the four criteria, the FUGs ascribed the highest weightage to institutional framework and governance criterion; followed by economic and social benefits, forest management practices, and extent of forest resources. Similarly, the SIIC was found to be the highest for the institutional framework and governance criterion. The average values of OSI for CFM, CF, and BZCF were 0.48, 0.51 and 0.60 respectively; suggesting that buffer zone community forestry is the more sustainable model among the three. The study also suggested that the SIIC and OSI help local communities to quantify the overall progress of their forestry practices towards sustainability. The indices provided a clear picture of forest management practices to indicate the direction where they are heading in terms of sustainability; and informed the users on issues to pay attention to enhancing the sustainability of their forests.

Keywords: community forestry, collaborative management, overall sustainability, sustainability index for individual criteria

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Authors: Robin Becker, Nane Roetmann, Manfred Helmus

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Construction companies lack junior staff for construction management. According to a nationwide survey of students, however, the profession lacks attractiveness. The conflict between the traditional job profile and the current desires of junior staff for contemporary and flexible working models must be resolved. Increasing flexibility is essential for the future viability of small and medium-sized enterprises. The implementation of modern work modules can help here. The following report will present the validation results of the developed work modules in construction practice.

Keywords: modern construction management, construction industry, work modules, shortage of junior staff, sustainable personnel management, making construction management more attractive, working time model

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Authors: Bernabeo R. Alberto

Abstract:

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) platforms or remotely piloted aircraft system (Rpas) - with dedicated sensors - are fundamental support to the planning, running, and control of the territory in which public safety is or may be at risk for post-disaster assessments such as flooding or landslides, for searching lost people, for crime and accident scene photography, for assisting traffic control at major events, for teaching geography, history, natural science and all those subjects that require a continuous cyclical process of observation, evaluation and interpretation. Through the use of proximal remote sensing information related to anthropic landscape and nature integration, there is an opportunity to improve knowledge and management decision-making for the safeguarding of the environment, for farming, wildlife management, land management, mapping, glacier monitoring, atmospheric monitoring, for the conservation of archeological, historical, artistic and architectural sites, allowing an exact delimitation of the site in the territory. This paper will go over many different mission types. Within each mission type, it will give a broad overview to familiarize the reader but not make them an expert. It will also give detailed information on the payloads and other testing parameters the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) use to complete a mission. The project's goal is to improve satellite maps about the stress of the plants, air quality monitoring, and related health issues.

Keywords: proximal remote sensing, remotely piloted aircraft system, risk, safety, unmanned aerial vehicle

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Authors: Agnieszka A. Malinowska, R. Hejmanowski

Abstract:

A number of European cities are strongly affected by ground movements caused by anthropogenic activities or post-anthropogenic metamorphosis. Those are mainly water pumping, current mining operation, the collapse of post-mining underground voids or mining-induced earthquakes. These activities lead to large and small-scale ground displacements and a ground ruptures. The ground movements occurring in urban areas could considerably affect stability and safety of structures and infrastructures. The complexity of the ground deformation phenomenon in relation to the structures and infrastructures vulnerability leads to considerable constraints in assessing the threat of those objects. However, the increase of access to the free software and satellite data could pave the way for developing new methods and strategies for environmental risk mitigation and management. Open source geographical information systems (OS GIS), may support data integration, management, and risk analysis. Lately, developed methods based on fuzzy logic and experts methods for buildings and infrastructure damage risk assessment could be integrated into OS GIS. Those methods were verified base on back analysis proving their accuracy. Moreover, those methods could be supported by ground displacement observation. Based on freely available data from European Space Agency and free software, ground deformation could be estimated. The main innovation presented in the paper is the application of open source software (OS GIS) for integration developed models and assessment of the threat of urban areas. Those approaches will be reinforced by analysis of ground movement based on free satellite data. Those data would support the verification of ground movement prediction models. Moreover, satellite data will enable our mapping of ground deformation in urbanized areas. Developed models and methods have been implemented in one of the urban areas hazarded by underground mining activity. Vulnerability maps supported by satellite ground movement observation would mitigate the hazards of land displacements in urban areas close to mines.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, open source geographic information science (OS GIS), risk assessment on urbanized areas, satellite interferometry (InSAR)

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Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

Abstract:

Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

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Authors: S. Art-in

Abstract:

This research was a survey research. The objective of this study was to study current situation and need in learning management for developing the analytical thinking of teachers in basic education of Thailand. The target group consisted of 400 teachers teaching in basic education level. They were selected by multi-stage random sampling. The instrument used in this study was the questionnaire asking current situation and need in learning management for developing the analytical thinking, 5 level rating scale. Data were analyzed by calculating the frequency, mean, standard deviation, percentage and content analysis. The research found that: 1) For current situation, the teachers provided learning management for developing analytical thinking, in overall, in “high” level. The issue with lowest level of practice: the teachers had competency in designing and establishing the learning management plan for developing the students’ analytical thinking. Considering each aspect it was found that: 1.1) the teacher aspect; the issue with lowest level of practice was: the teachers had competency in designing and establishing the learning management plan for developing the students’ analytical thinking, and 1.2) the learning management aspect for developing the students’ analytical thinking, the issue with lowest level of practice was: the learning activities provided opportunity for students to evaluate their analytical thinking process in each learning session. 2) The teachers showed their need in learning management for developing the analytical thinking, in overall, in “the highest” level. The issue with highest level of the need was: to obtain knowledge and competency in model, technique, and method for learning management or steps of learning management for developing the students’ analytical thinking. Considering each aspect it was found that: 2.1) teacher aspect; the issue with highest level of the need was: to obtain knowledge and comprehension in model, technique, and method for learning management or steps of learning management for developing the students’ analytical thinking, and 2.2) learning management aspect for developing the analytical thinking, the issue with highest level of need consisted of the determination of learning activities as problem situation, and the opportunity for students to comprehend the problem situation as well as practice their analytical thinking in order to find the answer.

Keywords: current situation and need, learning management, analytical thinking, teachers in basic education level, Thailand

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

Abstract:

Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Kemkanit Sanyanunthana

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to study the management system of information technology which supports the education of five private universities in Thailand, according to the case studies which have been developing their qualities and standards of management and education by service provision of information technology to support the excellence performance. The concept to connect information technology with a suitable system has been created by information technology administrators for development, as a system that can be used throughout the organizations to help reach the utmost benefits of using all resources. Hence, the researcher as a person who has been performing these duties within higher education is interested to do this research by selecting the Control Objective for Information and Related Technology 5 (COBIT 5) for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA) of America, or the National Award which applies the concept of Total Quality Management (TQM) to the organization evaluation. Such evaluation is called the Education Criteria for Performance Excellence (EdPEx) focuses on studying and comparing education quality development for excellent performance using COBIT 5 in terms of information technology to study the problems and obstacles of the investigation process for an information technology system, which is considered as an instrument to drive all organizations to reach the excellence performance of the information technology, and to be the model of evaluation and analysis of the process to be in accordance with the strategic plans of the information technology in the universities. This research is conducted in the form of descriptive and survey research according to the case studies. The data collection were carried out by using questionnaires through the administrators working related to the information technology field, and the research documents related to the change management as the main study. The research can be concluded that the performance based on the APO domain process (ALIGN, PLAN AND ORGANISE) of the COBIT 5 standard frame, which emphasizes concordant governance and management of strategic plans for the organizations, could reach only 95%. This might be because of some restrictions such as organizational cultures; therefore, the researcher has studied and analyzed the management of information technology in universities as a whole, under the organizational structures, to reach the performance in accordance with the overall APO domain which would affect the determined strategic plans to be able to develop based on the excellence performance of information technology, and to apply the risk management system at the organizational level into every performance process which would develop the work effectiveness for the resources management of information technology to reach the utmost benefits. 

Keywords: COBIT5, APO, EdPEx Criteria, MBNQA

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