Search results for: composite forecasting

Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Atish Bagchi, Siva Chandrasekaran

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Background: According to World Bank national accounts data, the estimated global manufacturing value-added output in 2020 was 13.74 trillion USD. These manufacturing processes are monitored, modelled, and controlled by advanced, real-time, computer-based systems, e.g., Industrial IoT, PLC, SCADA, etc. These systems measure and manipulate a set of physical variables, e.g., temperature, pressure, etc. Despite the use of IoT, SCADA etc., in manufacturing, studies suggest that unplanned downtime leads to economic losses of approximately 864 billion USD each year. Therefore, real-time, accurate detection, classification and prediction of machine behaviour are needed to minimise financial losses. Although vast literature exists on time-series data processing using machine learning, the challenges faced by the industries that lead to unplanned downtimes are: The current algorithms do not efficiently handle the high-volume streaming data from industrial IoTsensors and were tested on static and simulated datasets. While the existing algorithms can detect significant 'point' outliers, most do not handle contextual outliers (e.g., values within normal range but happening at an unexpected time of day) or subtle changes in machine behaviour. Machines are revamped periodically as part of planned maintenance programmes, which change the assumptions on which original AI models were created and trained. Aim: This research study aims to deliver a Graph Neural Network(GNN)based hybrid forecasting model that interfaces with the real-time machine control systemand can detect, predict machine behaviour and behavioural changes (anomalies) in real-time. This research will help manufacturing industries and utilities, e.g., water, electricity etc., reduce unplanned downtimes and consequential financial losses. Method: The data stored within a process control system, e.g., Industrial-IoT, Data Historian, is generally sampled during data acquisition from the sensor (source) and whenpersistingin the Data Historian to optimise storage and query performance. The sampling may inadvertently discard values that might contain subtle aspects of behavioural changes in machines. This research proposed a hybrid forecasting and classification model which combines the expressive and extrapolation capability of GNN enhanced with the estimates of entropy and spectral changes in the sampled data and additional temporal contexts to reconstruct the likely temporal trajectory of machine behavioural changes. The proposed real-time model belongs to the Deep Learning category of machine learning and interfaces with the sensors directly or through 'Process Data Historian', SCADA etc., to perform forecasting and classification tasks. Results: The model was interfaced with a Data Historianholding time-series data from 4flow sensors within a water treatment plantfor45 days. The recorded sampling interval for a sensor varied from 10 sec to 30 min. Approximately 65% of the available data was used for training the model, 20% for validation, and the rest for testing. The model identified the anomalies within the water treatment plant and predicted the plant's performance. These results were compared with the data reported by the plant SCADA-Historian system and the official data reported by the plant authorities. The model's accuracy was much higher (20%) than that reported by the SCADA-Historian system and matched the validated results declared by the plant auditors. Conclusions: The research demonstrates that a hybrid GNN based approach enhanced with entropy calculation and spectral information can effectively detect and predict a machine's behavioural changes. The model can interface with a plant's 'process control system' in real-time to perform forecasting and classification tasks to aid the asset management engineers to operate their machines more efficiently and reduce unplanned downtimes. A series of trialsare planned for this model in the future in other manufacturing industries.

Keywords: GNN, Entropy, anomaly detection, industrial time-series, AI, IoT, Industry 4.0, Machine Learning

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Authors: T. D. Ibragimov, A. R. Imamaliyev, G. M. Bayramov

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Influence of barium titanate particles on electro-optic properties of liquid crystal 4-cyano-4′-pentylbiphenyl (5CB) with positive dielectric anisotropy and the liquid crystalline (LC) mixture Н-37 consisting of 4-methoxybezylidene-4'–butylaniline and 4-ethoxybezylidene-4'–butylaniline with negative dielectric anisotropy was investigated. It was shown that a presence of particles inside 5СВ and H-37 decreased the clearing temperature from 35.2 °С to 32.5°С and from 61.2 oC to 60.1oC, correspondingly. The threshold voltage of the Fredericksz effect became 0.3 V for the BaTiO3-5CB colloid while the beginning of this effect of the pure 5СВ was observed at 2.1 V. Threshold voltage of the Fredericksz effect increased from 2.8 V to up 3.1 V at additive of particles into H-37. A rise time of the BaTiO3-5CB colloid improved while a decay time worsened in comparison with the pure 5CB at all applied voltages. The inverse trends were observed for the H-37 matrix, namely, a rise time worsened and a decay time improved. Among other things, the effect of fast light modulation was studied at application of the rectangular impulse with direct bias to an electro-optical cell with the BaTiO3 particles+5CB and the pure 5CB. At this case, a rise time of the composite worsened, a decay time improved in comparison with the pure 5CB. The pecularities of electrohydrodynamic instability (EHDI) formation was also investigated into the composite with the H-37 matrix. It was found that the voltage of the EHDI formation decreased, a rise time increased and a decay time decreased in comparison with the pure H-37. First of all, experimental results are explained by appearance of local electric fields near the polarized ferroelectric particles at application of external electric field and an existence of the additional obstacles (particles) for movement of ions.

Keywords: liquid crystal, ferroelectric particles, composite, electro-optics

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Authors: Seyedmahdi Mousavihashemi

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Natural Akermanite (NAM) has been successfully prepared by a modified sol-gel method. Optimization in calcination temperature and mechanical ball milling resulted in a pure and nano-sized powder which characterized by means of scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Fourier transform infrared Spectroscopy (FT–IR). We hypothesized that nano-sized Akermanite (AM) would mimic more efficiently the nanocrystal structure and function of natural bone apatite, owing to the higher surface area, compare to conventional micron-size Akermanite (AM). Accordingly, we used the unique advantage of nanotechnology to improve novel nano akermanite particles as a potential candidate for bone tissue regeneration whether as a per implant filling powder or in combination with other biomaterials as a composite scaffold. Pure Akermanite (PAM) powders were successfully obtained via a simple sol-gel method followed by calcination at 1250 °C. Mechanical grinding in a ceramic ball mill for 7 hours resulted in akermanite (AM) nanoparticles in the range of about 30- 45 nm.

Keywords: biomedical engineering, nano composite, SEM, TEM

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Authors: Adil Basuki Ahza, Michael Liong, Subarna Suryatman

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Healthy chips now dominating the snack market shelves. More than 80% processed snack foods in the market are chips. This research takes the advantages of twin extrusion technology to produce two types of product, i.e. directly expanded and intermediate ready-to-fry or microwavable chips. To improve the functional quality, the cereal-tuber based mix was enriched with antioxidant rich mix of temurui, celery, carrot and isolated soy protein (ISP) powder. Objectives of this research were to find best composite cassava-sorghum ratio, i.e. 60:40, 70:30 and 80:20, to optimize processing conditions of extrusion and study the microstructural, physical and sensorial characteristics of the final products. Optimization was firstly done by applying metering section of extruder barrel temperatures of 120, 130 and 140 °C with screw speeds of 150, 160 and 170 rpm to produce direct expanded product. The intermediate product was extruded in 100 °C and 100 rpm screw speed with feed moisture content of 35, 40 and 45%. The directly expanded products were analyzed for color, hardness, density, microstructure, and organoleptic properties. The results showed that interaction of ratio of cassava-sorghum and cooking methods affected the product's color, hardness, and bulk density (p<0.05). Extrusion processing conditions also significantly affected product's microstructure (p<0.05). The direct expanded snacks of 80:20 cassava-sorghum ratio and fried expanded one 70:30 and 80:20 ratio shown the best organoleptic score (slightly liked) while baking the intermediate product with microwave were resulted sensorial not acceptable quality chips.

Keywords: cassava-sorghum composite, extrusion, microstructure, physical characteristics

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Authors: Neha Batra Bali, Monika Tomar, Vinay Gupta

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A reagentless biosensor for detection of urea based on ZnO-CuO composite thin film is presented in following work. Biosensors have immense potential for varied applications ranging from environmental to clinical testing, health care, and cell analysis. Immense growth in the field of biosensors is due to the huge requirement in today’s world to develop techniques which are both cost effective and accurate for prevention of disease manifestation. The human body comprises of numerous biomolecules which in their optimum levels are essential for functioning. However mismanaged levels of these biomolecules result in major health issues. Urea is one of the key biomolecules of interest. Its estimation is of paramount significance not only for healthcare sector but also from environmental perspectives. If level of urea in human blood/serum is abnormal, i.e., above or below physiological range (15-40mg/dl)), it may lead to diseases like renal failure, hepatic failure, nephritic syndrome, cachexia, urinary tract obstruction, dehydration, shock, burns and gastrointestinal, etc. Various metal nanoparticles, conducting polymer, metal oxide thin films, etc. have been exploited to act as matrix to immobilize urease to fabricate urea biosensor. Amongst them, Zinc Oxide (ZnO), a semiconductor metal oxide with a wide band gap is of immense interest as an efficient matrix in biosensors by virtue of its natural abundance, biocompatibility, good electron communication feature and high isoelectric point (9.5). In spite of being such an attractive candidate, ZnO does not possess a redox couple of its own which necessitates the use of electroactive mediators for electron transfer between the enzyme and the electrode, thereby causing hindrance in realization of integrated and implantable biosensor. In the present work, an effort has been made to fabricate a matrix based on ZnO-CuO composite prepared by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) technique in order to incorporate redox properties in ZnO matrix and to utilize the same for reagentless biosensing applications. The prepared bioelectrode Urs/(ZnO-CuO)/ITO/glass exhibits high sensitivity (70µAmM⁻¹cm⁻²) for detection of urea (5-200 mg/dl) with high stability (shelf life ˃ 10 weeks) and good selectivity (interference ˂ 4%). The enhanced sensing response obtained for composite matrix is attributed to the efficient electron exchange between ZnO-CuO matrix and immobilized enzymes, and subsequently fast transfer of generated electrons to the electrode via matrix. The response is encouraging for fabricating reagentless urea biosensor based on ZnO-CuO matrix.

Keywords: biosensor, reagentless, urea, ZnO-CuO composite

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Authors: Isil Kerti, Onur Okur, Sibel Daglilar, Recep Calin

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Particulate reinforced aluminium matrix composites have gained more importance in automotive, aeronautical and defense industries due to their specific properties like as low density, high strength and stiffness, good fatigue strength, dimensional stability at high temperature and acceptable tribological properties. In this study, 2014 Aluminium alloy used as a matrix material and B₄C and SiC were selected as reinforcements components. For production of composites materials, vacuum infiltration method was used. In the experimental studies, the reinforcement volume ratios were defined by mixing as totally 10% B₄C and SiC. Aging treatment (T6) was applied to the specimens. The effect of T6 treatment on hardness was determined by using Brinell hardness test method. The effects of the aging treatment on microstructure and chemical structure were analysed by making XRD, SEM and EDS analysis on the specimens.

Keywords: metal matrix composite, vacumm infiltration method, aluminum metal matrix, mechanical feature

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Authors: K. Tomolya, D. Janovszky, A. Sycheva, M. Sveda, A. Roosz

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CuZrAl amorphous alloys have attracted high interest due to unique physical and mechanical properties, which can be enhanced by adding of Ni and Ti elements. It is known that this properties can be enhanced by crystallization of amorphous alloys creating nanocrystallines in the matrix. The present work intends to produce nanosized crystalline parti-cle reinforced amorphous matrix composite powders by crystallization of amorphous powders. As the first step the amorphous powders were synthe-tized by ball-milling of crystalline powders. (Cu49Zr45Al6) 80Ni10Ti10 and (Cu49Zr44Al7) 80Ni10Ti10 (at%) alloys were ball-milled for 12 hours in order to reach the fully amorphous structure. The impact en-ergy of the balls during milling causes the change of the structure in the powders. Scanning electron microscopical (SEM) images shows that the phases mixed first and then changed into a fully amorphous matrix. Furthermore, nanosized particles in the amorphous matrix were crystallized by heat treatment of the amorphous powders that was confirmed by TEM measurement. It was of importance to define the tem-perature when the amorphous phase starts to crystal-lize. Amorphous alloys have a special heating curve and characteristic temperatures, which can be meas-ured by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). A typical DSC curve of an amorphous alloy exhibits an endothermic event characteristic of the equilibrium glass transition (Tg) and a distinct undercooled liquid region, followed by one or two exothermic events corresponding to crystallization processes (Tp). After measuring the DSC traces of the amorphous powders, the annealing temperatures should be determined between Tx and Tp. In our experiments several temperatures from the annealing temperature range were selected and de-pendency of crystallized nanoparticles fraction on their hardness was investigated.

Keywords: amorphous structure, composite, mechanical milling, powder, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), transmission electronmocroscopy (TEM)

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Authors: Azhar Equbal, Anoop Kumar Sood, M. Asif Equbal, M. Israr Equbal

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In the present work response surface methodology (RSM) based central composite design (CCD) is used for analyzing the electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. For experimentation, mild steel is selected as work piece and copper is used as electrode. Three machining parameters namely current (I), spark on time (T_on) and spark off time (T_off) are selected as the input variables. The output or response chosen is material removal rate (MRR) which is to be maximized. To reduce the number of runs face centered central composite design (FCCCD) was used. ANOVA was used to determine the significance of parameter and interactions. The suitability of model is tested using Anderson darling (AD) plot. The results conclude that different parameters considered i.e. current, pulse on and pulse off time; all have dominant effect on the MRR. At last, the optimized parameter setting for maximizing MRR is found through main effect plot analysis.

Keywords: EDM, electrode, MRR, RSM, ANOVA

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Authors: J. R. Büttler, T. Pham

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Basic understanding of interfacial mechanisms is of importance for the development of polymer composites. For this purpose, we need techniques to analyze the quality of interphases, their chemical and physical interactions and their strength and fracture resistance. In order to investigate the interfacial phenomena in detail, advanced characterization techniques are favorable. Dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) using a rheological system is a sensitive tool. T-peel tests were performed with this system, to investigate the temperature-dependent peel behavior of woven textile composites. A model system was made of polyamide (PA) woven fabric laminated with films of polypropylene (PP) or PP modified by grafting with maleic anhydride (PP-g-MAH). Firstly, control measurements were performed with solely PP matrixes. Polymer melt investigations, as well as the extensional stress, extensional viscosity and extensional relaxation modulus at -10°C, 100 °C and 170 °C, demonstrate similar viscoelastic behavior for films made of PP-g-MAH and its non-modified PP-control. Frequency sweeps have shown that PP-g-MAH has a zero phase viscosity of around 1600 Pa·s and PP-control has a similar zero phase viscosity of 1345 Pa·s. Also, the gelation points are similar at 2.42*104 Pa (118 rad/s) and 2.81*104 Pa (161 rad/s) for PP-control and PP-g-MAH, respectively. Secondly, the textile composite was analyzed. The extensional stress of PA66 fabric laminated with either PP-control or PP-g-MAH at -10 °C, 25 °C and 170 °C for strain rates of 0.001 – 1 s^-1 was investigated. The laminates containing the modified PP need more stress for T-peeling. However, the strengthening effect due to the modification decreases by increasing temperature and at 170 °C, just above the melting temperature of the matrix, the difference disappears. Independent of the matrix used in the textile composite, there is a decrease of extensional stress by increasing temperature. It appears that the more viscous is the matrix, the weaker the laminar adhesion. Possibly, the measurement is influenced by the fact that the laminate becomes stiffer at lower temperatures. Adhesive lap-shear testing at room temperature supports the findings obtained with the T-peel test. Additional analysis of the textile composite at the microscopic level ensures that the fibers are well embedded in the matrix. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging of a cross section of the composite shows no gaps between the fibers and matrix. Measurements of the water contact angle show that the MAH grafted PP is more polar than the virgin-PP, and that suggests a more favorable chemical interaction of PP-g-MAH with PA, compared to the non-modified PP. In fact, this study indicates that T-peel testing by DMTA is a technique to achieve more insights into polymeric textile composites.

Keywords: dynamic mechanical thermal analysis, interphase, polyamide, polypropylene, textile composite

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Authors: Jaylina Rana, Chanakya Arya, John Stehle

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Hybrid precast twinwall concrete units, mainly used in basement, core and crosswall construction, are now being adopted in water retaining tank structures. Their use offers many advantages compared with conventional in-situ concrete alternatives, however, the design could be optimised further via a deeper understanding of the unique load transfer mechanisms in the system. In the tank application, twinwall units, which consist of two precast concrete biscuits connected by steel lattices and in-situ concrete core, are subject to bending. Uncertainties about the degree of composite action between the precast biscuits and hence flexural performance of the units necessitated laboratory tests to investigate the interface shear resistance. Testing was also required to assess both the leakage performance and buildability of a variety of joint details. This paper describes some aspects of this novel approach to the design/construction of tank structures as well as selected results from some of the tests that were carried out.

Keywords: hybrid construction, twinwall, precast construction, composite action

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Authors: L. N. Shubha, M. Kalpana, P. Madhusudana Rao

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Polyaniline/gold (PANI/Au) nanocomposite was prepared by in-situ chemical oxidation polymerization method. The synthesis involved the formation of polyaniline-gold nanocomposite, by in-situ redox reaction and the dispersion of gold nano particles throughout the polyaniline matrix. The nanocomposites were characterized by XRD, FTIR, TEM and UV-visible spectroscopy. The characteristic peaks in FTIR and UV-visible spectra confirmed the expected structure of polymer as reported in the literature. Further, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) confirmed the formation of gold nano particles. The crystallite size of 30 nm for nanoAu was supported by the XRD pattern. Further, the A.C. conductivity, dielectric constant (€’(w)) and dielectric loss (€’’(w)) of PANI/Au nano composite was measured using impedance analyzer. The effect of doping on the conductivity was investigated. The antibacterial activity was examined for this nano composite and it was observed that PANI/Au nanocomposite could be used as an antibacterial agent.

Keywords: AC-conductivity, anti-microbial activity, dielectric constant, dielectric loss, polyaniline/gold (PANI/AU) nanocomposite

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Authors: Walid M. Adel, Liang Guo-Zhu

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To investigate the characterization of the mechanical properties of composite solid propellant (CSP) based on hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) at different temperatures and strain rates, uniaxial tensile tests were conducted over a range of temperatures -60 °C to +76 °C and strain rates 0.000164 to 0.328084 s^-1 using a conventional universal testing machine. From the experimental data, it can be noted that the mechanical properties of AP/HTPB propellant are mainly dependent on the applied strain rate and the temperature condition. The stress-strain responses exhibited an initial yielding followed by the viscoelastic phase, which was strongly affected by the strain rate and temperature. It was found that the mechanical properties increased with both increasing strain rate and decreasing temperature. Based on the experimental tests, the master curves of the tensile properties are drawn using predetermined shift factor and the results were discussed. This work is a first step in preliminary investigation the nonlinear viscoelasticity behavior of CSP.

Keywords: AP/HTPB composite solid propellant, mechanical behavior, nonlinear viscoelastic, tensile test, strain rate

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Authors: Morteza Raminnia

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In this study, dynamic analysis of functionally graded nano-composite pipe reinforced by single-walled carbon nano-tubes (SWCNTs) with simply supported boundary condition subjected to moving mechanical loads is investigated. The material properties of functionally graded carbon nano tube-reinforced composites (FG-CNTRCs) are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction and are estimated through a micro-mechanical model. In this paper polymeric matrix considered as isotropic material and for the CNTRC, uniform distribution (UD) and three types of FG distribution patterns of SWCNT reinforcements are considered. The system equation of motion is derived by using Hamilton's principle under the assumptions of first order shear deformation theory (FSDT).The thin piezoelectric layers embedded on inner and outer surfaces of FG-CNTRC layer are acted as distributed sensor and actuator to control dynamic characteristics of the FG-CNTRC laminated pipe. The modal analysis technique and Newmark's integration method are used to calculate the displacement and dynamic stress of the pipe subjected to moving loads. The effects of various material distribution and velocity of moving loads on dynamic behavior of the pipe is presented. This present approach is validated by comparing the numerical results with the published numerical results in literature. The results show that the above-mentioned effects play very important role on dynamic behavior of the pipe .This present work shows that some meaningful results that which are interest to scientific and engineering community in the field of FGM nano-structures.

Keywords: nano-composite, functionally garded material, moving load, active control, PZT layers

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Authors: Hasan A Al-Asadi, Ali Samir, Afrah Turki Awad, Ali Basem

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Integrating the phase change material (PCM) with photovoltaic (PV) panels is one of the effective techniques to minimize the PV panel temperature and increase their electric output. In order to investigate the impact of the PCM on the electric output of the PV panels for a whole year, a lumped-distributed parameter model for the PV-PCM module has been developed. This development has considered the impact of the PCM density variation between the solid phase and liquid phase. This contribution will increase the assessment accuracy of the electric output of the PV-PCM module. The second contribution is to assess the impact of the expanded composite graphite-PCM on the PV electric output in Milan for a whole year. The novel one-dimensional model has been solved using MATLAB software. The results of this model have been validated against literature experiment work. The weather and the solar radiation data have been collected. The impact of expanded graphite-PCM on the electric output of the PV panel for a whole year has been investigated. The results indicate this impact has an enhancement rate of 2.39% for the electric output of the PV panel in Milan for a whole year.

Keywords: PV panel efficiency, PCM, numerical model, solar energy

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

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With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

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Authors: Krishnakant Bhole, Neerakallu D. Shivakumar, Shakti Singh Chauhan, Sanketh Tonannavar, Rajath S

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Synthesis of natural-based composite materials is state of the art. This work discusses the preparation and characterization of cellulose nanofibers (CNF) extracted from the bamboo pulp using TEMPO-oxidization and high-pressure homogenization methods. Bio-composites are prepared using synthesized CNF and bamboo particles. Nanocellulose prepared is characterized using SEM and XRD for morphological and crystallinity analysis, and the formation of fibers at the nano level is ensured. Composite specimens are fabricated using these natural sources and subjected to tensile and flexural tests to characterize the mechanical properties such as modulus of elasticity (MOE), modulus of rupture (MOR), and interfacial strength. Further, synthesized nanocellulose is used as a binding agent to prepare particleboards using various natural sources like bamboo, areca nut, and banana in the form of fibers. From the results, it can be inferred that nanocellulose prepared from bamboo pulp acts as a binding agent for making bio-composites. Hence, the concept of using matrix and reinforcement derived from natural sources can be used to prepare green composites that are highly degradable.

Keywords: nanocellulose, biocomposite, CNF, bamboo

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Authors: Hamed Ahari, Sepideh Farokhi, Mohamad Reza Abedini

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This paper focuses on inactivation of the growth of the bacterial mixture, Salmonella enteritidis, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus and Escherichia coli, experimentally subjected to the chicken eggshell by two types of nano particle-Ag, composite film and colloidal spray carried out at concentrations of 500, 1000 and 2000 ppm over 28 days. The GLM, Repeated Measurement-ANOVA procedure was used to analyze the effect of time and concentration of nano groups on inactivation of bacteria, simultaneously. The maximum reduction of the bacterial growth was respected to the group “spray 2000 ppm” for which the value of the bacteria reached the minimum (0.93±0.42) on day 7, calculated to be 0.0 on days14 and 28 and followed by the group “spray 1000 ppm”. It was obviously concluded that increasing the dilution of nano coating in spray and film created a significant decrease in the number of bacteria colonies on the eggshells but the effect of packaging in different concentrations of nanocomposite was not statistically significant in different days of the study.

Keywords: nano particle, composite film, eggshell, bacteria

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Authors: Ahmet Yönetken

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Al metal matrix composites reinforced with AlN have been fabricated by Tube furnace sintering at various temperatures. A uniform nickel layer on Al(%1AlN)%19Ni, Al(%2AlN)%18Ni, Al(%3AlN)%17Ni, Al(%4AlN)%16Ni, Al(%5AlN)%15Ni powders were deposited prior to sintering using electroless plating technique, allowing closer surface contact than can be achieved using conventional methods such as mechanical alloying. A composite consisting of quaternary additions, a ceramic phase, AlN, within a matrix of Al, AlN, Ni has been prepared at the temperature range between 550°C and 650°C under Ar shroud. X-Ray diffraction, SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) density, and hardness measurements were employed to characterize the properties of the specimens. Experimental results carried out for 650°C suggest that the best properties as comprehension strength σmax and hardness 681.51(HV) were obtained at 650°C, and the tube furnace sintering of electroless Al plated (%5AlN)%15Ni powders is a promising technique to produce ceramic reinforced Al (%5AlN)%15Ni composites.

Keywords: electroless nickel plating, ceramic-metal composites, powder metallurgy, sintering

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Authors: G. N. Tiwari, Shyam

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Photovoltaic thermal (PVT) roof type greenhouse dryer installed above the wind tower of SODHA BERS COMPLEX, Varanasi has been analyzed for all types of weather conditions. The product to be dried has been kept at three different trays. The upper tray receives energy from the PV cover while the bottom tray receives thermal energy from the hot air of the wind tower. The annual energy estimation has been done for the all types of weather condition of composite climate of northern India. It has been found that maximum energy saving is observed for c type of weather condition whereas minimum energy saving is observed for a type of weather condition. The energy saving on overall thermal energy basis and exergy basis are 1206.8 kWh and 360 kWh respectively for c type of weather condition. The energy saving from all types of weather condition are found to be 3175.3 kWh and 957.6 kWh on overall thermal energy and overall exergy basis respectively.

Keywords: exergy, greenhouse, photovoltaic thermal, solar dryer

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Authors: H. Maachou, A. Chagnes, G. Cote

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The present work reports the properties of chitosan/hydroxyapatite (Cs/HA: 100/00, 70/30 and 30/70) composite microspheres obtained by emulsification processing route. The morphology of chitosane microspheres was observed by a scanning electron microscope (SEM) which shows an aggregate of spherical microspheres with a particle size, determined by optical microscope, ranged from 4 to 10 µm. Thereafter, a biomimetic approach was used to study the in vitro biomineralization of these composites. It concerns the composites immersion in simulated body fluid (SBF) for different times. The deposited calcium phosphate was studied using X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), FTIR spectroscopy and ICP analysis of phosphorus. In fact, the mineral formed on Cs/HA microspheres was a mixture of carbonated HA and β-TCP as showed by FTIR peaks at 1419,5 and 871,8 cm-1 and XRD peak at 29,5°. This formation was induced by the presence of HA in chitosan microspheres. These results are confirmed by SEM micrographs which chow the Ca-P crystals growth in form of cauliflowers. So, these materials are of great interest for bone regeneration applications due to their ability to nucleate calcium phosphates in presence of simulated body fluid (SBF).

Keywords: hydroxyapatite, chitosan, microsphere, composite, bone regeneration

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Authors: Ricardo Mendoza, Jason Briceño, Juan F. Santa, Gabriel Peluffo, Mauricio Márquez, Beatriz Cardozo, Carlos Gutiérrez

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Coir natural fiber reinforced polyester composites were exposed to an accelerated environment aging in order to study the influence on the mechanical properties. Coir fibers were obtained in local plantations of the Caribbean coast of Colombia. A physical and mechanical characterization was necessary to found the best behavior between three types of coconut. Composites were fabricated by hand lay-up technique and samples were cut by water jet technique. An accelerated aging test simulates environmental climate conditions in a hygrothermal and ultraviolet chamber. Samples were exposed to the UV/moisture rich environment for 500 and 1000 hours. The tests were performed in accordance with ASTM G154. An additional water absorption test was carried out by immersing specimens in a water bath. Mechanical behaviors of the composites were tested by tensile, flexural and impact test according to ASTM standards, after aging and compared with unaged composite specimens. It was found that accelerated environment aging affects mechanical properties in comparison with unaged ones. Tensile and flexural strength were lower after aging, meantime elongation at break and flexural deflection increased. Impact strength was found that reduced after aging. Other result revealed that the percentage of moisture uptake increased with aging. This results showed that composite materials reinforced with natural fibers required an improvement adding a protective barrier to reduce water absorption and increase UV resistance.

Keywords: coir fiber, polyester composites, environmental aging, mechanical properties

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Authors: Anucha Wittayakorn-Puripunpinyoo

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The research objectives were 1) to study the situation and its trend of agricultural product export of Thailand 2) to study the impact of agricultural product export on income of Thai economy 3) the impact of agricultural product export on employment of Thai economy and 4) to find out the recommendations of agricultural product export policy of Thailand. In this research, secondary data were collected as yearly time series data from 1990 to 2016 accounted for 27 years. Data were collected from the Bank of Thailand database. Primary data were collected from the steakholders of agricultural product export policy of Thailand. Data analysis was applied descriptive statistics such as arithmetic mean, standard deviation. The forecasting of agricultural product was applied Mote Carlo Simulation technique as well as time trend analysis. In addition, the impact of agricultural product export on income and employment by applying econometric model while the estimated parameters were utilized the ordinary least square technique. The research results revealed that 1) agricultural product export value of Thailand from 1990 to 2016 was 338,959.5 Million Thai baht with its growth rate of 4.984 percent yearly, in addition, the forecasting of agricultural product export value of Thailand has increased but its growth rate has been declined 2) the impact of agricultural product export has positive impact on income in Thai economy, increasing in agricultural product export of Thailand by 1 percent would lead income increased by 0.0051 percent 3) the impact of agricultural product export has positive impact on employment in Thai economy, increasing in agricultural product export of Thailand by 1 percent would lead income increased by 0.079 percent and 4) in the future, agricultural product export policy would focused on finished or semi-finished agricultural product instead of raw material by applying technology and innovation in to make value added of agricultural product export. The public agricultural product export policy would support exporters in private sector in order to encourage them as agricultural exporters in Thailand.

Keywords: agricultural product export, income, employment, Thai economy

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Authors: A. M. Nasr, W. R. Azzam, K. E. Ebeed

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For bored piles, careful cleaning must be used to reduce the amount of material trapped in the drilled hole; otherwise, the debris' presence might cause the soft toe effect, which would affect the axial resistance. There isn't much comprehensive research on bored piles with debris. In order to investigate the behavior of a single pile, a pile composite foundation, a two pile group, a three pile group and a four pile group investigation conducts, forty-eight numerical tests in which the debris is simulated using foam rubber.1m pile diameter and 10m length with spacing 3D and depth of foundation 1m used in this study. It is found that the existence of debris causes a reduction of bearing capacity by 64.58% and 33.23% for single pile and pile composite foundation, respectively, 23.27% and 24.24% for the number of defective piles / total number of pile =1/2 and 1 respectively for two group pile, 10.23%, 19.42% and 28.47% for the number of defective piles / total number of pile =1/3,2/3 and 1 respectively for three group pile and, this reduction increase with the increase in a number of defective piles / a total number of piles and 7.1%, 13.32%,19.02% and 26.36 for the number of defective piles / total number of pile =1/4,2/4,3/4 and 1 respectively for four group pile and decreases with an increase of number of pile duo to interaction effect.

Keywords: debris, Foundation, defective, interaction, board pile

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Authors: Ahmed H. El-Masry, Mohamed A. Dabaon, Tarek F. El-Shafiey, Abd El-Hakim A. Khalil

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An experimental study was performed to investigate the behavior and strength of proposed technique to connect reinforced concrete (RC) beam to steel or composite columns. This approach can practically be used in several types of building construction. In this technique, the main beam of the frame consists of a transfer part (part of beam; Tr.P) and a common reinforcement concrete beam. The transfer part of the beam is connected to the column, whereas the rest of the beam is connected to the transfer part from each side. Four full-scale beam-column connections were tested under static loading. The test parameters were the length of the transfer part and the column properties. The test results show that using of the transfer part technique leads to modify the deformation capabilities for the RC beam and hence it increases its resistance against failure. Increase in length of the transfer part did not necessarily indicate an enhanced behavior. The test results contribute to the characterization of the connection behavior between RC beam - steel column and can be used to calibrate numerical models for the simulation of this type of connection.

Keywords: composite column, reinforced concrete beam, steel column, transfer part

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Authors: Jifeng Zhang , Yongpeng Lei

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Continuous carbon fiber reinforced polyamide 6 (CF/PA6) composites are potential for application in the automotive industry due to their high specific strength and stiffness. However, PA6 resin is sensitive to the moisture in the hydrothermal environment and CF/PA6 composites might undergo several physical and chemical changes, such as plasticization, swelling, and hydrolysis, which induces a reduction of mechanical properties. So far, little research has been reported on the assessment of the effects of hydrothermal aging on the mechanical properties of continuous CF/PA6 composite. This study deals with the effects of hydrothermal aging on moisture absorption and mechanical properties of polyamide 6 (PA6) and polyamide 6 reinforced with continuous carbon fibers composites (CF/PA6) by immersion in distilled water at 30 ℃, 50 ℃, 70 ℃, and 90 ℃. Degradation of mechanical performance has been monitored, depending on the water absorption content and the aging temperature. The experimental results reveal that under the same aging condition, the PA6 resin absorbs more water than the CF/PA6 composite, while the water diffusion coefficient of CF/PA6 composite is higher than that of PA6 resin because of interfacial diffusion channel. In mechanical properties degradation process, an exponential reduction in tensile strength and elastic modulus are observed in PA6 resin as aging temperature and water absorption content increases. The degradation trend of flexural properties of CF/PA6 is the same as that of tensile properties of PA6 resin. Moreover, the water content plays a decisive role in mechanical degradation compared with aging temperature. In contrast, hydrothermal environment has mild effect on the tensile properties of CF/PA6 composites. The elongation at breakage of PA6 resin and CF/PA6 reaches the highest value when their water content reaches 6% and 4%, respectively. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were also used to explain the mechanism of mechanical properties alteration. After exposed to the hydrothermal environment, the Tg (glass transition temperature) of samples decreases dramatically with water content increase. This reduction can be ascribed to the plasticization effect of water. For the unaged specimens, the fibers surface is coated with resin and the main fracture mode is fiber breakage, indicating that a good adhesion between fiber and matrix. However, with absorbed water content increasing, the fracture mode transforms to fiber pullout. Finally, based on Arrhenius methodology, a predictive model with relate to the temperature and water content has been presented to estimate the retention of mechanical properties for PA6 and CF/PA6.

Keywords: continuous carbon fiber reinforced polyamide 6 composite, hydrothermal aging, Arrhenius methodology, interface

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Authors: Hlaing Zaw Oo, N. Kostromina, V. Osipchik, T. Kravchenko, K. Yakovleva

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The process of modification of ed-20 epoxy resin synthesized by vinyl-containing compounds is considered. It is shown that the introduction of vinyl-containing compounds into the composition based on epoxy resin ED-20 allows adjusting the technological and operational characteristics of the binder. For improvement of the properties of epoxy resin, following modifiers were selected: polyvinylformalethyl, polyvinyl butyral and composition of linear and aromatic amines (Аramine) as a hardener. Now the big range of hardeners of epoxy resins exists that allows varying technological properties of compositions, and also thermophysical and strength indicators. The nature of the aramin type hardener has a significant impact on the spatial parameters of the mesh, glass transition temperature, and strength characteristics. Epoxy composite materials based on ED-20 modified with polyvinyl butyral were obtained and investigated. It is shown that the composition of resins based on derivatives of polyvinyl butyral and ED-20 allows obtaining composite materials with a higher complex of deformation-strength, adhesion and thermal properties, better water resistance, frost resistance, chemical resistance, and impact strength. The magnitude of the effect depends on the chemical structure, temperature and curing time. In the area of concentrations, where the effect of composite synergy is appearing, the values of strength and stiffness significantly exceed the similar parameters of the individual components of the mixture. The polymer-polymer compositions form their class of materials with diverse specific properties that ensure their competitive application. Coatings with high performance under cyclic loading have been obtained based on epoxy oligomers modified with vinyl-containing compounds.

Keywords: epoxy resins, modification, vinyl-containing compounds, deformation, strength properties

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Authors: Bryan Low

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In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

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Authors: Rida Batool, Faizah Altaf, Saba Nadeem, Afifa Aslam, Faisal Alamgir, Ghazanfar Abbas

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Today, the need of the hour is to find out alternative renewable energy resources in order to reduce the burden on fossil fuels and prevent alarming environmental degradation. Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is considered a good alternative energy conversion device because it is environmentally benign and supplies energy on demand. The only drawback associated with SOFC is its high operating temperature. In order to reduce operating temperature, different types of composite material are prepared. In this work, titanium doped lanthanum gallium cerate (LGCT) composite is prepared through the co-precipitation method as electrolyte and examined for low temperature SOFCs (LTSOFCs). The structural properties are analyzed by X-Ray Diffractometry (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectrometry. The surface properties are investigated by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The electrolyte LGCT has the formula LGCTO₃ because it showed two phases La.GaO and Ti.CeO₂. The average particle size is found to be (32 ± 0.9311) nm. The ionic conductivity is achieved to be 0.073S/cm at 650°C. Arrhenius plots are drawn to calculate activation energy and found 2.96 eV. The maximum power density and current density are achieved at 68.25mW/cm² and 357mA/cm², respectively, at 650°C with hydrogen. The prepared material shows excellent ionic conductivity at comparatively low temperature, that makes it a potentially good candidate for LTSOFCs.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, LGCTO₃, cerium composite oxide, ionic conductivity, low temperature electrolyte

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