Search results for: complex shaped part

Authors: Eliane Ferreira da Silva

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This paper aims to mobilize and sensitize public administration leaders to good practices and encourage investment in the PV system in Brazil. It presents a case study methodology for dimensioning the PV system in the roofs of the public buildings of the Esplanade of the Ministries, Brasilia, capital of the country, with predefined resources, starting with the Sustainable Esplanade Project (SEP), of the exponential growth of photovoltaic solar energy in the world and making a comparison with the solar power plant of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), active since: 6/10/2016. In order to do so, it was necessary to evaluate the energy efficiency of the buildings in the period from January 2016 to April 2017, (16 months) identifying the opportunities to reduce electric energy expenses, through the adjustment of contracted demand, the tariff framework and correction of existing active energy. The instrument used to collect data on electric bills was the e-SIC citizen information system. The study considered in addition to the technical and operational aspects, the historical, cultural, architectural and climatic aspects, involved by several actors. Identifying the reductions of expenses, the study directed to the following aspects: Case 1) economic feasibility for exchanges of common lamps, for LED lamps, and, Case 2) economic feasibility for the implementation of photovoltaic solar system connected to the grid. For the case 2, PV*SOL Premium Software was used to simulate several possibilities of photovoltaic panels, analyzing the best performance, according to local characteristics, such as solar orientation, latitude, annual average solar radiation. A simulation of an ideal photovoltaic solar system was made, with due calculations of its yield, to provide a compensation of the energy expenditure of the building - or part of it - through the use of the alternative source in question. The study develops a methodology for public administration, as a major consumer of electricity, to act in a responsible, fiscalizing and incentive way in reducing energy waste, and consequently reducing greenhouse gases.

Keywords: energy efficiency, esplanade of ministries, photovoltaic solar energy, public buildings, sustainable building

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: V. I. Kozyavkin, L. F. Shestopalova, T. B. Voloshyn

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Introduction: Rehabilitation of children with Autism is the issue of the day in psychiatry and neurology. It is attributed to constantly increasing quantity of autistic children - Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD) Existing rehabilitation approaches in treatment of children with Autism improve their medico- social and social- psychological adjustment. Experience of treatment for different kinds of Autistic disorders in International Clinic of Rehabilitation (ICR) reveals the necessity of complex intensive approach for healing this malady and wider implementation of a Kozyavkin method for treatment of children with ASD. Methods: 19 children aged from 3 to 14 years were examined. They were diagnosed ‘Autism’ (F84.0) with comorbid neurological pathology (from pyramidal insufficiency to para- and tetraplegia). All patients underwent rehabilitation in ICR during two weeks, where INRS approach was used. INRS included methods like biomechanical correction of the spine, massage, physical therapy, joint mobilization, wax-paraffin applications. They were supplemented by art- therapy, ergotherapy, rhythmical group exercises, computer game therapy, team Olympic games and other methods for improvement of motivation and social integration of the child. Estimation of efficacy was conducted using parent’s questioning and done twice- on the onset of INRS rehabilitation course and two weeks afterward. For efficacy assessment of rehabilitation of autistic children in ICR standardized tool was used, namely Autism Treatment Evaluation Checklist (ATEC). This scale was selected because any rehabilitation approaches for the child with Autism can be assessed using it. Results: Before the onset of INRS treatment mean score according to ATEC scale was 64,75±9,23, it reveals occurrence in examined children severe communication, speech, socialization and behavioral impairments. After the end of the rehabilitation course, the mean score was 56,5±6,7, what indicates positive dynamics in comparison to the onset of rehabilitation. Generally, improvement of psychoemotional state occurred in 90% of cases. Most significant changes occurred in the scope of speech (16,5 before and 14,5 after the treatment), socialization (15.1 before and 12,5 after) and behavior (20,1 before and 17.4 after). Conclusion: As a result of INRS rehabilitation course reduction of autistic symptoms was noted. Particularly improvements in speech were observed (children began to spell out new syllables, words), there was some decrease in signs of destructiveness, quality of contact with the surrounding people improved, new skills of self-service appeared. The prospect of the study is further, according to evidence- based medicine standards, deeper examination of INRS and assessment of its usefulness in treatment for Autism and ASD.

Keywords: intensive neurophysiological rehabilitation system (INRS), international clinic od rehabilitation, ASD, rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Jung-Soo Lee, Ujjal Kumar Nath, IllSup Nou, Dulal Chandra

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Leaf lettuce is one of the most important leafy vegetables that is used as raw for salad and part of everyday dishes in many parts of the world including Asian countries. Since it is used as fresh, its quality maintenance is crucial which depends on several pre- and postharvest factors. In order to investigate the effects of pre-fix factors on the postharvest quality, the interaction of pre-fix factors such as growing conditions and fixed factor like cultivars were evaluated. Four Korean leaf lettuce cultivars ‘Cheongchima’, ‘Cheongchuckmyeon’, ‘Geockchima’ and ‘Geockchuckmyeon’ were grown under natural condition (as control) and altered growing condition (green house) with excess soil water and 50% shading to monitor their postharvest qualities. Several growth parameters like plant height, number of leaves, leaf thickness, fresh biomass yield as well as postharvest qualities like fresh weight loss, respiration rate, changes in color and shelf-life were measured in lettuce during storage up to 36 days at 5°C. Plant height and the number of leaves were affected by both pre-fix growing conditions as well as the cultivars. However, fresh biomass yield was affected by only growing condition, whereas leaf thickness was affected by cultivars. Additionally, the degrees of fresh weight loss and respiration rate of leaf lettuce at postharvest stages were influenced by pre-fix growing conditions and cultivars. However, changes in color of leaves during storage were less remarkable in samples harvested from of ‘Cheongchima’ and ‘Cheongchuckmyeon’ cultivars grown in excess watering with 50% shade than that grown in control condition. Consequently, these two cultivars also showed longer shelf-life when they were grown in excess watering with 50% shade than other cultivars or samples were grown in control condition. Based on the measured parameters, it can be concluded that postharvest quality of leaf lettuce might be accelerated by growing lettuce under excess soil water with 50% shading.

Keywords: cultivar, growing condition, leaf lettuce, postharvest quality, shelf-life

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Xiaohong Li, Wenfan Yan

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Background: While it is widely considered that the university library plays a critical role in fulfilling the institution's mission and providing students’ learning experience beyond the classrooms, how the technology-enhanced library reform changed college students’ learning experience hasn’t been thoroughly investigated. The purpose of this study is to explore how technology-enhanced library reform affects students’ learning experience and career readiness and further identify the factors and effective conditions that enable the quality learning outcome of Chinese college students. Methodologies: This study selected the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method to explore the effects of technology-enhanced university library reform on college students’ learning experience and career readiness. QCA is unique in explaining the complex relationship between multiple factors from a holistic perspective. Compared with the traditional quantitative and qualitative analysis, QCA not only adds some quantitative logic but also inherits the characteristics of qualitative research focusing on the heterogeneity and complexity of samples. Shenyang Normal University (SNU) selected a sample of the typical comprehensive university in China that focuses on students’ learning and application of professional knowledge and trains professionals to different levels of expertise. A total of 22 current university students and 30 graduates who joined the Library Readers Association of SNU from 2011 to 2019 were selected for semi-structured interviews. Based on the data collected from these participating students, qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), including univariate necessity analysis and the multi-configuration analysis, was conducted. Findings and Discussion: QCA analysis results indicated that the influence of technology-enhanced university library restructures and reorganization on student learning experience and career readiness is the result of multiple factors. Technology-enhanced library equipment and other hardware restructured to meet the college students learning needs and have played an important role in improving the student learning experience and learning persistence. More importantly, the soft characteristics of technology-enhanced library reform, such as library service innovation space and culture space, have a positive impact on student’s career readiness and development. Technology-enhanced university library reform is not only the change in the building's appearance and facilities but also in library service quality and capability. The study also provides suggestions for policy, practice, and future research.

Keywords: career readiness, college student learning experience, qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), technology-enhanced library reform

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Saifalarab A. Mohmmed, Morgana E. Vianna, Jonathan C. Knowles

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The issue of apical periodontitis has received considerable critical attention. Bacteria is integrated into communities, attached to surfaces and consequently form biofilm. The biofilm structure provides bacteria with a series protection skills against, antimicrobial agents and enhances pathogenicity (e.g. apical periodontitis). Sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) has become the irrigant of choice for elimination of bacteria from the root canal system based on its antimicrobial findings. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of different agitation techniques on the efficacy of 2.5% NaOCl to eliminate the biofilm from the surface of the lateral canal using the residual biofilm, and removal rate of biofilm as outcome measures. The effect of canal complexity (lateral canal) on the efficacy of the irrigation procedure was also assessed. Forty root canal models (n = 10 per group) were manufactured using 3D printing and resin materials. Each model consisted of two halves of an 18 mm length root canal with apical size 30 and taper 0.06, and a lateral canal of 3 mm length, 0.3 mm diameter located at 3 mm from the apical terminus. E. faecalis biofilms were grown on the apical 3 mm and lateral canal of the models for 10 days in Brain Heart Infusion broth. Biofilms were stained using crystal violet for visualisation. The model halves were reassembled, attached to an apparatus and tested under a fluorescence microscope. Syringe and needle irrigation protocol was performed using 9 mL of 2.5% NaOCl irrigant for 60 seconds. The irrigant was either left stagnant in the canal or activated for 30 seconds using manual (gutta-percha), sonic and ultrasonic methods. Images were then captured every second using an external camera. The percentages of residual biofilm were measured using image analysis software. The data were analysed using generalised linear mixed models. The greatest removal was associated with the ultrasonic group (66.76%) followed by sonic (45.49%), manual (43.97%), and passive irrigation group (control) (38.67%) respectively. No marked reduction in the efficiency of NaOCl to remove biofilm was found between the simple and complex anatomy models (p = 0.098). The removal efficacy of NaOCl on the biofilm was limited to the 1 mm level of the lateral canal. The agitation of NaOCl results in better penetration of the irrigant into the lateral canals. Ultrasonic agitation of NaOCl improved the removal of bacterial biofilm.

Keywords: 3D printing, biofilm, root canal irrigation, sodium hypochlorite

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Makhosazana Dubazana

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Many South Africans commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as Taxi Ranks. Taxi ranks form part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, connecting them to commuters, their prime clientele. They work along designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank and in between taxi lanes. Informal traders are therefore at risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from minibus taxis. Of the exhaust emissions, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) have high toxicity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to conduct a Human Health Risk Assessment for informal traders, looking at their exposure to BTEX compounds. Methods: The study was conducted in a subsection of a taxi rank which is representative of the entire taxi rank. This subsection has a daily average of 400 minibus taxi moving through it and an average of 60 informal traders working in it. In the health risk assessment, a questionnaire was conducted to understand the occupational behaviour of the informal traders. This was used to deduce the exposure scenarios and sampling locations. Three sampling campaigns were run for an average of 10 hours each covering the average working hours of traders. A gas chronographer was used for collecting continues ambient air samples at 15 min intervals. Results: Over the three sampling days, the average concentrations were, 8.46ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27ppb and 1.0ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene respectively. The average cancer risk is 9.46E-03. In several cases, they were incidences of unacceptable risk for the cumulative exposure of all four BTEX compounds. Conclusion: This study adds to the body of knowledge on the Human Health Risk effects of urban BTEX pollution, furthermore focusing on the impact of urban BTEX on high risk personal such as informal traders, in Southern Africa.

Keywords: human health risk assessment, informal traders, occupational risk, urban BTEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Glenn Auld Knierim

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Automated robotic winding of high-temperature superconductors (HTS) addresses precision, efficiency, and reliability critical to the commercialization of products. Today’s HTS materials are mature and commercially promising but require manufacturing attention. In particular to the exaggerated rectangular cross-section (very thin by very wide), winding precision is critical to address the stress that can crack the fragile ceramic superconductor (SC) layer and destroy the SC properties. Damage potential is highest during peak operations, where winding stress magnifies operational stress. Another challenge is operational parameters such as magnetic field alignment affecting design performance. Winding process performance, including precision, capability for geometric complexity, and efficient repeatability, are required for commercial production of current HTS. Due to winding limitations, current HTS magnets focus on simple pancake configurations. HTS motors, generators, MRI/NMR, fusion, and other projects are awaiting robotic wound solenoid, planar, and spherical magnet configurations. As with conventional power cables, full transposition winding is required for long length alternating current (AC) and pulsed power cables. Robotic production is required for transposition, periodic swapping of cable conductors, and placing into precise positions, which allows power utility required minimized reactance. A full transposition SC cable, in theory, has no transmission length limits for AC and variable transient operation due to no resistance (a problem with conventional cables), negligible reactance (a problem for helical wound HTS cables), and no long length manufacturing issues (a problem with both stamped and twisted stacked HTS cables). The Infinity Physics team is solving manufacturing problems by developing automated manufacturing to produce the first-ever reliable and utility-grade commercial SC cables and magnets. Robotic winding machines combine mechanical and process design, specialized sense and observer, and state-of-the-art optimization and control sequencing to carefully manipulate individual fragile SCs, especially HTS, to shape previously unattainable, complex geometries with electrical geometry equivalent to commercially available conventional conductor devices.

Keywords: automated winding manufacturing, high temperature superconductor, magnet, power cable

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Radovan Čobanović, Milica Rankov Šicar

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The fresh cheese is in the group of perishable food which cannot be kept a long period of time. The study of sustainability have been done in order to extend the shelf-life of the product which was 15 days. According to the plan of sustainability it was defined that 35 samples had to be stored for 30 days at 2°C−6°C and analyzed every 7th day from the day of reception until 30th day. Shelf life of the cheese has expired during the study of sustainability in the period between 15th and 30th day of analyses. Cheese samples were subjected to sensory analysis (appearance, odor, taste, color, aroma) and bacteriological analyzes (Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Bacillus cereus, Staphylococcus aureus and total plate count) according to Serbian state regulation. All analyses were tested according to ISO methodology: sensory analysis ISO 6658, Listeria monocytogenes ISO 11 290-1, Salmonella spp ISO 6579, Bacillus cereus ISO 7932, Staphylococcus aureus ISO 6888-1, and total plate count ISO 4833. Analyses showed that after fifteen days of storage at a temperature defined by the manufacturers and within the product's shelf life, the cheese did not have any noticeable changes in sensory characteristics. Smell and taste are unaffected there was no separation of whey and there was not presence of strange smell or taste. As far as microbiological analyses are concerned neither one pathogen was detected and total plate count was at level of 103 cfu/g. After expiry of shelf life in a period of 15th and 30th day of storage, the analysis showed that there was a separation of whey on the surface. Along the edge of the container was present a dried part of cheese and sour-milky smell and taste were very weakly expressed. Concerning the microbiological analyses there still were not positive results for pathogen microorganisms but the total plate count was at a level of 106cfu/g. Based on the obtained results it can be concluded that this product cannot have longer shelf life than shelf life which is already defined because there are a sensory changes that would certainly have influence on decision of customers when purchase of this product is concerned.

Keywords: sustainability, fresh cheese, shelf-life, product

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Majid Rasta, Xiaotao Shi, Mian Adnan Kakakhel, Yanqin Bai, Lao Liu, Jia Manke

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Microplastics (MPs; particles <5 mm) pollution is considered as a globally pervasive threat to aquatic ecosystems, and many studies reported this pollution in rivers, wetlands, lakes, coastal waters and oceans. In the aquatic environments, settling and transport of MPs in water column and sediments are determined by different factors such as hydrologic characteristics, watershed pattern, rainfall events, hydraulic conditions, vegetation, hydrodynamics behavior of MPs, and physical features of particles (shape, size and density). In the meantime, hydraulic conditions (such as turbulence, high/low water speed flows or water stagnation) play a key role in the fate of MPs in aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, this study presents a briefly review on the effects of different hydraulic conditions on the fate, transport and accumulation of MPs in aquatic ecosystems. Generally, MPs are distributed horizontally and vertically in aquatic environments. The vertical distribution of MPs in the water column changes with different flow velocities. In the riverine, turbulent flow causing from the rapid water velocity and shallow depth may create a homogeneous mixture of MPs throughout the water column. While low velocity followed by low-turbulent waters can lead to the low level vertical mixing of MP particles in the water column. Consequently, the high numbers of MPs are expected to be found in the sediments of deep and wide channels as well as estuaries. In contrast, observing the lowest accumulation of MP particles in the sediments of straights of the rivers, places with the highest flow velocity is understandable. In the marine environment, hydrodynamic factors (e.g., turbulence, current velocity and residual circulation) can affect the sedimentation and transportation of MPs and thus change the distribution of MPs in the marine and coastal sediments. For instance, marine bays are known as the accumulation area of MPs due to poor hydrodynamic conditions. On the other hand, in the nearshore zone, the flow conditions are highly complex and dynamic. Experimental studies illustrated that maximum horizontal flow velocity in the sandy beach can predict the accumulation of MPs so that particles with high sinking velocities deposit in the lower water depths. As a whole, it can be concluded that the transport and accumulation of MPs in aquatic ecosystems are highly affected by hydraulic conditions. This study provided information about the impacts of hydraulic on MPs pollution. Further research on hydraulics and its relationship to the accumulation of MPs in aquatic ecosystems is needed to increase insights into this pollution.

Keywords: microplastics pollution, hydraulic, transport, accumulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Zeynep Yazgan, Gökhan Aygün, Reyhan Çalışkan

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Objective: Invasive fungal infections are a serious threat in terms of morbidity and mortality, especially in immunocompromised patients. The most frequently isolated agents are Aspergillus genus fungi, and sensitivity to azoles, which are the first choice in treatment, decreases. In our study, we aimed to investigate the use of the agar plate screening method as a fast, easy, and practical method in determining azole resistance in Aspergillus spp. species. Methods: Our study was conducted with 125 Aspergillus spp. isolates produced from various clinical samples. Aspergillus spp. isolates were identified by conventional methods and azole resistance was determined by gradient test and agar plate screening method. Broth microdilution method was applied to resistant isolates, and CypA-L98H and CypA-M220 mutations in the cyp51A gene were investigated. Results: In our study, 55 A. fumigatus complex (44%), 42 A. flavus (33.6%), 6 A. terreus (5%), 4 A. niger (3%) and 18 Aspergillus spp. (14%) were identified. With the gradient test method, resistance to VOR and POS was detected in 1 (1.8%) of A.fumigatus isolates, and resistance to ITR was detected in 3 (5.45%). With the agar plate method, 1 of the A.fumigatus isolates (1.8%) had VOR, ITR, POS, 1 of the A.terreus isolates (16.7%) had VOR, 1 of the A.niger isolates (25%) had ITR. Resistance to VOR and POS was detected in 2 Aspergillus spp. isolates (11%), and resistance to ITR was detected in 1 (5.6%). Sensitivity and specificity were determined as 100% for VOR and POS in A. fumigatus species, 33.3% and 100% for ITR, respectively, 100% for ITR in A. flavus species, and 100% for ITR and POS in A. terreus species. By broth microdilution method in 7 isolates in which resistance was detected by gradient test and/or agar plate screening method; 1 A.fumigatus resistant to ITR, VOR, POS, 2 A.fumigatus resistant to ITR, 2 Aspergillus spp. ITR, VOR, POS MICs were determined as 2µg/ml and 8µg/ml, 8µg/ml and >32µg/ml, 0.5µg/ml and 4µg/ml, respectively. CypA-L98H mutations were detected in 5 of these isolates, CypA-M220 mutations were detected in 6, and no mutation was detected in 1. CypA-L98H and CypA-M220 mutations were detected in 1 isolate for which resistance was not detected. Conclusion: The need for rapid antifungal susceptibility screening tests is increasing in the treatment of aspergillosis. Although the sensitivity of the agar plate method was determined to be 33.3% for A.fumigatus ITR in our study, its sensitivity and specificity were determined to be 100% for ITR, VOR, and POS in other species. The low sensitivity value detected for A.fumigatus showed that agar plate drug concentrations should be updated in accordance with the latest regulations of EUCAST guidelines. The CypA-L98H and CypA-M220 mutations detected in our study suggested that the distribution of azole resistance-related mutations in different regions in our country should be investigated. In conclusion, it is thought that the agar plate method, which can be easily applied to detect azole resistance, is a fast and practical method in routine use and can contribute to both the determination of effective treatment strategies and the generation of epidemiological data.

Keywords: Aspergillus, agar plate, azole resistance, cyp51A, cypA-L98H, cypA-M220

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Gundula Bartzke, Hans-Peter Piepho

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Rainfall is a critical component of climate governing vegetation growth and production, forage availability and quality for herbivores. However, reliable rainfall measurements are not always available, making it necessary to predict rainfall values for particular locations through time. Predicting rainfall in space and time can be a complex and challenging task, especially where the rain gauge network is sparse and measurements are not recorded consistently for all rain gauges, leading to many missing values. Here, we develop a flexible Bayesian model for predicting rainfall in space and time and apply it to Narok County, situated in southwestern Kenya, using data collected at 23 rain gauges from 1965 to 2015. Narok County encompasses the Maasai Mara ecosystem, the northern-most section of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, famous for its diverse and abundant large mammal populations and spectacular migration of enormous herds of wildebeest, zebra and Thomson's gazelle. The model incorporates geographical and meteorological predictor variables, including elevation, distance to Lake Victoria and minimum temperature. We assess the efficiency of the model by comparing it empirically with the established Gaussian process, Kriging, simple linear and Bayesian linear models. We use the model to predict total monthly rainfall and its standard error for all 5 * 5 km grid cells in Narok County. Using the Monte Carlo integration method, we estimate seasonal and annual rainfall and their standard errors for 29 sub-regions in Narok. Finally, we use the predicted rainfall to predict large herbivore biomass in the Maasai Mara ecosystem on a 5 * 5 km grid for both the wet and dry seasons. We show that herbivore biomass increases with rainfall in both seasons. The model can handle data from a sparse network of observations with many missing values and performs at least as well as or better than four established and widely used models, on the Narok data set. The model produces rainfall predictions consistent with expectation and in good agreement with the blended station and satellite rainfall values. The predictions are precise enough for most practical purposes. The model is very general and applicable to other variables besides rainfall.

Keywords: non-stationary covariance function, gaussian process, ungulate biomass, MCMC, maasai mara ecosystem

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Authors: Mohammad Khoshini, Arman Khoshghalb, Meghdad Payan, Nasser Khalili

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Most of the Earth’s crust surface rocks are technically categorized as weak rocks or weakly bonded geomaterials. Deeply weathered, weakly cemented, friable and easily erodible, they demonstrate complex material behaviour and understanding the overlooked mechanical behaviour of such materials is of particular importance in geotechnical engineering practice. Weakly bonded geomaterials are so susceptible to surface shear and moisture that conventional methods of core drilling fail to extract high-quality undisturbed samples out of them. Moreover, most of these geomaterials are of high heterogeneity rendering less reliable and feasible material characterization. In order to compensate for the unpredictability of the material response, either numerous experiments are needed to be conducted or large factors of safety must be implemented in the design process. However, none of these approaches is sustainable. In this study, a method for dry core drilling of such materials is introduced to take high-quality undisturbed core samples. By freezing the material at certain moisture content, a secondary structure is developed throughout the material which helps the whole structure to remain intact during the core drilling process. Moreover, to address the heterogeneity issue, the natural material was reconstructed artificially to obtain a homogeneous material with very high similarity to the natural one in both micro and macro-mechanical perspectives. The method is verified for both micro and macro scale. In terms of micro-scale analysis, using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), pore spaces and inter-particle bonds were investigated and compared between natural and artificial materials. X-Ray Diffraction, XRD, analyses are also performed to control the chemical composition. At the macro scale, several uniaxial compressive strength tests, as well as triaxial tests, were performed to verify the similar mechanical response of the materials. A high level of agreement is observed between micro and macro results of natural and artificially bonded geomaterials. The proposed methods can play an important role to cut down the costs of experimental programs for material characterization and also to promote the accuracy of the numerical modellings based on the experimental results.

Keywords: Artificial geomaterial, core drilling, macro-mechanical behavior, micro-scale, sample preparation, SEM photography, weakly bonded geomaterials

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Authors: Emily Injete Amondo, Alisher Mirzabaev, Emmanuel Rukundo

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Children in rural farming households are often vulnerable to a multitude of risks, including health risks associated with climate change and variability. Cognizant of this, this study empirically traced the relationship between climate variability and nutritional health outcomes in rural children while identifying the cause-and-effect transmission mechanisms. We combined four waves of the rich Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS), part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS) for the period 2009-2014, with long-term and high-frequency rainfall and temperature datasets. Self-reported drought and flood shock variables were further used in separate regressions for triangulation purposes and robustness checks. Panel fixed effects regressions were applied in the empirical analysis, accounting for a variety of causal identification issues. The results showed significant negative outcomes for children’s anthropometric measurements due to the impacts of moderate and extreme droughts, extreme wet spells, and heatwaves. On the contrary, moderate wet spells were positively linked with nutritional measures. Agricultural production and child diarrhea were the main transmission channels, with heatwaves, droughts, and high rainfall variability negatively affecting crop output. The probability of diarrhea was positively related to increases in temperature and dry spells. Results further revealed that children in households who engaged in ex-ante or anticipatory risk-reducing strategies such as savings had better health outcomes as opposed to those engaged in ex-post coping such as involuntary change of diet. These results highlight the importance of adaptation in smoothing the harmful effects of climate variability on the health of rural households and children in Uganda.

Keywords: extreme weather events, undernutrition, diarrhea, agricultural production, gridded weather data

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Yehia Manawi, Ahmad Kayvanifard

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Membrane distillation is an emerging technology which has been used to produce freshwater and purify different types of aqueous mixtures. Qatar is an arid country where almost 100% of its freshwater demand is supplied through the energy-intensive thermal desalination process. The country’s need for water has reached an all-time high which stipulates finding an alternative way to augment freshwater without adding any drastic affect to the environment. The objective of this paper was to investigate the potential of using the industrial low grade waste heat to produce freshwater using membrane distillation. The main part of this work was conducting a heat audit on selected Qatari chemical industries to estimate the amounts of freshwater produced if such industrial waste heat were to be recovered. By the end of this work, the main objective was met and the heat audit conducted on the Qatari chemical industries enabled us to estimate both the amounts of waste heat which can be potentially recovered in addition to the amounts of freshwater which can be produced if such waste heat were to be recovered. By the end, the heat audit showed that around 605 Mega Watts of waste heat can be recovered from the studied Qatari chemical industries which resulted in a total daily production of 5078.7 cubic meter of freshwater. This water can be used in a wide variety of applications such as human consumption or industry. The amount of produced freshwater may look small when compared to that produced through thermal desalination plants; however, one must bear in mind that this water comes from waste and can be used to supply water for small cities or remote areas which are not connected to the water grid. The idea of producing freshwater from the two widely-available wastes (thermal rejected brine and waste heat) seems promising as less environmental and economic impacts will be associated with freshwater production which may in the near future augment the conventional way of producing freshwater currently being thermal desalination. This work has shown that low grade waste heat in the chemical industries in Qatar and perhaps the rest of the world can contribute to additional production of freshwater using membrane distillation without significantly adding to the environmental impact.

Keywords: membrane distillation, desalination, heat recovery, environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Elisabeth Louise Ndjengue Mindang, Charline Florence Awounfack, Derek Tantoh Ndinteh, Rui W. M. Krause, Dieudonne Njamen

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The evolution of human fertility over the last 50 years has shown considerable problems due to a growing number of couples that find it difficult to procreate without medical assistance. In Africa, this inability to conceive affect 30 to 40% of couples. A number of contaminants in the environment are thought to contribute significantly to the observed infertility epidemic. Methods: On this basis, the impact of 40-days unique oral administration (between 9 and 10 am) of potassium sorbate (at of 12.5, 45, and 78 mg/kg BW doses) was evaluated on sexual maturation and hematologic parameters on immature Wistar rats (21-22 days of age). At the end of the treatment, animals were sacrificed. Vaginal opening was evaluated before the sacrifice. After the sacrifice, relative weight of reproductive organs, pituitary gonadotrophin level (LH and FSH), and sexuals steroids (estrogen and progesterone), cholesterol level in ovaries, folliculogenesis, and some hematological parameters were evaluated. Results: Compared to the control group, no significant variation was observed in the body weight of the animals treated with patassium sorbate. On the other hand, potassium sorbate, a significantly lower percentage (25%) of vaginal-opening in these rats, was observed from day 46 of age (p <0.01); likewise, a significant decrease was observed on the relative weight of the ovaries (p <0.01), number of primary follicles (p <0.01), and a significant increase of follicle number (p <0.001) at 78 mg/kg BW have been obseved. Potassium sorbate always decreased the number of white blood cells (p <0.05). Taken together, these results confirm the disturbing effects on the endocrine system, causing a decrease in fertility by increasing the number of follicles in atresia. A deleterious effect on the immune system was also observed. Overall, these results validate at least in part the global observations on the growing decline in fertility in populationsfeeding increasingly on industrial processed foods.

Keywords: potassium sorbate, early puberty, folliculogenesis, endocrine disruptor, immatur wistar rat

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Authors: Rana Waqar Aslam, Urooj Saeed, Hammad Mehmood, Hameed Ullah, Imtiaz Younas

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This research has been conducted to assess the water quality in and around Lahore Metropolitan area on the basis of three different land uses, i.e. residential, commercial, and industrial land uses. For this, 29 sample sites have been selected on the basis of simple random sampling technique. Samples were collected at the source (WASA tube wells). The criteria for selecting sample sites are to have a maximum concentration of population in the selected land uses. The results showed that in the residential land use the proportion of nitrate and turbidity is at their highest level in the areas of Allama Iqbal Town and Samanabad Town. Commercial land use of Gulberg and Data Gunj Bakhsh Town have highest level of proportion of chlorides, calcium, TDS, pH, Mg, total hardness, arsenic and alkalinity. Whereas in industrial type of land use in Ravi and Wahga Town have the proportion of arsenic, Mg, nitrate, pH, and turbidity are at their highest level. The high rate of concentration of these parameters in these areas is basically due to the old and fractured pipelines that allow bacterial as well as physiochemical contaminants to contaminate the portable water at the sources. Furthermore, it is seen in most areas that waste water from domestic, industrial, as well as municipal sources may get easy discharge into open spaces and water bodies, like, cannels, rivers, lakes that seeps and become a part of ground water. In addition, huge dumps located in Lahore are becoming the cause of ground water contamination as when the rain falls, the water gets seep into the ground and impures the ground water quality. On the basis of the derived results with the help of Geo-spatial technology ACRGIS 9.3 Interpolation (IDW), it is recommended that water filtration plants must be installed with specific parameter control. A separate team for proper inspection has to be made for water quality check at the source. Old water pipelines must be replaced with the new pipelines, and safe water depth must be ensured at the source end.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, pH, nitrate, disaster, IDW

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Authors: Nadia Akbarpour

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Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a forceful and obliterating illness, which is portrayed by intrusiveness, fast movement, and significant protection from treatment. Advances in neurotic arrangement and malignant growth hereditary qualities have worked on our illustrative comprehension of this infection; be that as it may, significant parts of pancreatic disease science remain ineffectively comprehended. A superior comprehension of pancreatic disease science should lead the way to more viable medicines. In the course of the most recent couple of years, there have been significant advances in the sub-atomic and organic comprehension of pancreatic malignancy. This included comprehension of the genomic intricacy of the illness, the job of pancreatic malignant growth undifferentiated organisms, the importance of the growth microenvironment, and the one-of-a-kind metabolic transformation of pancreas disease cells to acquire supplements under hypoxic climate. Endeavors have been made towards the advancement of the practical answer for its treatment with compelled achievement due to its complicated science. It is grounded that pancreatic malignancy undifferentiated cells (CSCs), yet present in a little count, contribute extraordinarily to PC inception, movement, and metastasis. Standard chemo and radiotherapeutic choices, notwithstanding, grow general endurance, the connected aftereffects are a huge concern. In the midst of the latest decade, our understanding with regards to atomic and cell pathways engaged with PC and the job of CSCs in its movement has expanded massively. By and by, the center is to target CSCs. The natural items have acquired a lot of thought as of late as they, generally, sharpen CSCs to chemotherapy and target atomic flagging engaged with different cancers, including PC. Some arranged investigations have demonstrated promising outcomes recommending that assessments in this course bring a ton to the table for the treatment of PC. Albeit preclinical investigations uncovered the significance of natural items in lessening pancreatic carcinoma, restricted examinations have been led to assess their part in centers. The current survey gives another knowledge to late advances in pancreatic malignancy science, treatment, and the current status of natural items in its expectation.

Keywords: pancreatic, genomic, organic, cancer

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Authors: Kornelia Kordiak

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The research is based on a biographical approach and serves as a foundation for understanding individual human destinies through the analysis of the context of life experiences. It focuses on the significance of childhood in shaping family micro-worlds from the perspective of biographical learning. In this case, the family micro-world is interpreted as a complex of beliefs and judgments about elements of the ‘total universe’ based on the individual's experiences. The main aim of the research is to understand the importance of childhood in shaping family micro-worlds from the perspective of reflection on biographical learning. Additionally, it contributes to a deeper understanding of the familial experiences of the studied individuals who form these family micro-worlds and the course of the biographical learning process in the subjects. Biographical research aligns with an interpretative paradigm, where individuals are treated as active interpreters of the world, giving meaning to their experiences and actions based on their own values and beliefs. The research methods used in the project—narrative interview method and analysis of personal documents—enable obtaining a multidimensional perspective on the phenomenon under study. Narrative interviews serve as the main data collection method, allowing researchers to delve into various life contexts of individuals. Analysis of these narratives identifies key moments and life patterns, as well as discovers the significance of childhood in shaping family micro-worlds. Moreover, analysis of personal documents such as diaries or photographs enriches the understanding of the studied phenomena by providing additional contexts and perspectives. The research will be conducted in three phases: preparatory, main, and final. The anticipated schedule includes preparation of research tools, selection of research sample, conducting narrative interviews and analysis of personal documents, as well as analysis and interpretation of collected research material. The narrative interview method and document analysis will be utilized to capture various contexts and interpretations of childhood experiences and family relations. The research will contribute to a better understanding of family dynamics and individual developmental processes. It will allow for the identification and understanding of mechanisms of biographical learning and their significance in shaping identity and family relations. Analysis of adult narratives will enable the identification of factors determining patterns of behavior and attitudes in adult life, which may have significant implications for pedagogical practice.

Keywords: childhood, adulthood, biographical learning, narrative interview, analysis of personal documents, family micro-worlds

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Authors: Rafael Martins Manzano Silva, Jean-Francois Tremong

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Electrification of railway lines allows to increase speed, power, capacity and energetic efficiency of rolling stocks. However, this process of electrification is complex and costly. An electrification project is not just about design of catenary. It also includes installation of structures around electrification, as substation installation, electrical isolation, signalling, telecommunication and civil engineering structures. France has more than 30,000 km of railways, whose only 53% are electrified. The others 47% of railways use diesel locomotive and represent only 10% of the circulation (tons.km). For this reason, a new type of electrification, less expensive than the usual, is requested to enable the modernization of these railways. One solution could be the use of hybrids trains. This technology opens up new opportunities for less expensive infrastructure development such as the partial electrification of railway lines. In a partially electrified railway, the power supply of theses hybrid trains could be made either by the catenary or by the on-board energy storage system (ESS). Thus, the on-board ESS would feed the energetic needs of the train along the non-electrified zones while in electrified zones, the catenary would feed the train and recharge the on-board ESS. This paper’s objective deals with the technical and economic potential identification of partial electrification of railway lines. This study provides different scenarios of electrification by replacing the most expensive places to electrify using on-board ESS. The target is to reduce the cost of new electrification projects, i.e. reduce the cost of electrification infrastructures while not increasing the cost of rolling stocks. In this study, scenarios are constructed in function of the electrification’s cost of each structure. The electrification’s cost varies considerably because of the installation of catenary support in tunnels, bridges and viaducts is much more expensive than in others zones of the railway. These scenarios will be used to describe the power supply system and to choose between the catenary and the on-board energy storage depending on the position of the train on the railway. To identify the influence of each partial electrification scenario in the sizing of the on-board ESS, a model of the railway line and of the rolling stock is developed for a real case. This real case concerns a railway line located in the south of France. The energy consumption and the power demanded at each point of the line for each power supply (catenary or on-board ESS) are provided at the end of the simulation. Finally, the cost of a partial electrification is obtained by adding the civil engineering costs of the zones to be electrified plus the cost of the on-board ESS. The study of the technical and economic potential ends with the identification of the most economically interesting scenario of electrification.

Keywords: electrification, hybrid, railway, storage

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Authors: Umbreen Javaid

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Pakistan’s experience with nascent, yet to be evolved democratic institutions inherited from the British Empire, has not been a pleasant one when evaluated in terms of good governance, development, and success of anti-corruption mechanisms. The country has remained entangled in a vicious circle of accumulating large budget deficits, dwindling economy, low foreign direct investment, political instability, and rising terrorism. It is thus not surprising that no account of the state aimed at analyzing the six-decade journey since her inception is replete with negative connotations like dysfunctional, failed, fragile or weak state. The limited pool of experience of handling democratic institutions and lack of political will be on the part of country’s political elite to transform the society on democratic footings have left Pakistan as a “limited access order” state. The widespread illiteracy becomes a double edge sword when a largely illiterate electorate elects representatives who mostly come from a semi-educated background with the limited understanding of democratic minutiae and little or no proclivity to resist monetary allures. The prevalence of culture of patronage with widespread poverty coupled with absence of a comprehensive system of investigating, prosecuting and adjudicating cases of corruption encourage the practice that has been eroding the state’s foundations since her inception owing to the unwillingness of the traditional elites who have been strongly resistant towards any attempts aimed at disseminating powers. An analytical study of the historical, political, cultural, economic and administrative hurdles that have been at work in impeding Pakistan’s transition to a democratic, accountable society would be instrumental in understanding the issue of widespread plague of corruption and state’s inefficiency to cope with it effectively. The issue of corruption in Pakistan becomes more important when seen in the context of her vulnerability to terrorism and religious extremism. In this regard, Pakistan needs to learn a lot from developed countries in order to evolve a comprehensive strategy for combating and preventing this pressing issue.

Keywords: Pakistan, corruption, anti-corruption, limited access order

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Authors: Paulina Pergoł, Paulina Pergoł, Tomasz Kryczka

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Aging of societies is a phenomenon that is visible all over the world. The above has social, economic, and medical consequences. Many methods of pro-health stimulation of the elderly, improving cognitive functions and quality of life, are described in the world literature. The most frequently used method of activating the elderly is physical activity, in which, in addition to standard exercise programs, activities such as dance, tai chi, and yoga are often introduced. The introduction of physical activity may be limited due to the disability that often accompanies people aged 65+. Other activating methods mentioned in the literature are therapies with the participation of animals - animal therapy or plant therapy - hortitherapy, as well as music therapy, which is increasingly popular. All of the above-mentioned therapeutic methods require the involvement of a person who would conduct the so-called occupational therapist, which can be a financial barrier for many nursing homes. Researchers all over the world are trying to find solutions that can be applied in any care institution, even in those where financial support for running such centers is small. One of the forms of therapy that is recommended in the group of elderly people and which does not require large financial outlays is the so-called reminiscence therapy based on recalling personal experiences and experiences. Thanks to reminiscence therapy, seniors can return to happy moments in their lives. Research shows that reminiscence therapy increases self-esteem and reduces symptoms of depression. The method of activating older people with the use of correspondence can be an effective and low-cost form of therapy, as shown by the pilot study conducted in 2019 as part of the Queen Silvia Nursing Award competition, consisting in a systematic exchange of correspondence between volunteers and residents of the Nursing Home. This study was conducted with the participation of a small group of participants, therefore, in order to identify and prove the beneficial effect of this form of activation, it should be carried out on a larger group of respondents using standardized scales assessing various psychological parameters.

Keywords: nursing, elderly care, psychiatry, psychology

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Authors: Ernest C. Nwadinobi, Amanda Peart, Carl Adams

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The leading countries like the USA, UK and some of the European countries have moved their focus away from just developing the e-government platform towards just the electronic services which aim at providing access to information to its citizens or customers, but they have gone to make significant backroom changes that can accommodate this electronic service being provided to its customers or citizens. E-government has moved from just providing electronic information to citizens and customers alike to serving their needs. In developing countries like Nigeria, the enablement of e-government is being used as an anti-corruption tool. The introduction of the Bank verification number (BVN) scheme by the Central Bank of Nigeria, has helped the government in not just saving money but also protecting customer’s transaction and enhancing confidence in the banking sector. This has helped curtail the high rate of cyber and financial crime that has been part of the system. The use of BVN as an anti-corruption tool in Nigeria came at a time there was need for openness, accountability, and discipline, after years of robbing the treasury and recklessness in handling finances. As there has not been a defined method for measuring the strength or success of e-government development, in this case BVN, in Nigeria, progress will remain at the same level. The implementation strategy of the BVN in Nigeria has mostly been a quick fix, quick win solution. In fact, there is little or no indication to show evidence of a framework for e-government. Like other leading countries, there is the need for proper implementation of strategy and framework especially towards a customer orientated process, which will accommodate every administrative body of the government institution including private business rather than focusing on a non-flexible organisational structure. The development of e-government must have a strategy and framework for it to work, and this strategy must enclose every public administration and will not be limited to any individual bodies or organization. A defined framework or monitoring method must be put in place to help evaluate and benchmark government development in e-government. This framework must follow the same concept or principles. In censorious analyses of the existing methods, this paper will denote areas that must be included in the existing approach to be able to channel e-government development towards its defined strategic objectives.

Keywords: Bank Verification No (BVN), quick-fix, anti-corruption, quick-win

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Authors: Abu Samah Abdul Khalim, Hamzah Khali Aziz

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Tropical forests in Malaysia safeguard enormous biological diversity while providing crucial benefits and services for the sustainable development of human communities. They are highly significant globally, both for their diverse and threatened species and as representative unique ecosystems. In order to promote the conservation and sustainable management of forest in this country, the Forestry Department (FD) is using ITTO guidelines on managing the forest under the Sustainable Forest Management practice (SFM). The fundamental principles of SFM are the sustained provision of products, goods and services; economic viability, social acceptability and the minimization of environmental/ecological impacts. With increased awareness and recognition of the importance of tropical forests and biodiversity in the global environment, efforts have been made to classify forests and natural areas with unique values or properties in a universally accepted scale. In line with that the concept of High Conservation Value Forest (HCVF) first used by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) in 1999, has been adopted and included as Principle ‘9’ in the Malaysia Criteria and Indicators for Forest Management Certification (MC&I 2002). The MC&I 2002 is a standard used for assessing forest management practices of the Forest Management Unit (FMU) level for purpose of certification. The key to the concept of HCVF is identification of HCVs of the forest. This paper highlighted initiative taken by the Forestry Department Peninsular Malaysia in establishing and managing HCVF areas within the Permanent Forest Reserves (PFE). To date almost all states forestry department in Peninsular Malaysia have established HCVFs in their respective states under different categories. Among others, the establishments of HCVF in this country are related to the importance of conserving biological diversity of the flora in the natural forest in particular endemic and threatened species such as Shorea bentongensis. As such it is anticipated that by taking this important initiatives, it will promote the conservation of biological diversity in the PFE of Peninsular Malaysia in line with the Sustainable Forest Management practice.

Keywords: high conservation value forest, sustainable forest management, forest management certification, Peninsular Malaysia

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Authors: Nattaporn Khanoonkon, Rangrong Yoksan, Amod A. Ogale

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Polyethylene (PE) is one of the most petroleum-based thermoplastic materials used in many applications including packaging due to its cheap, light-weight, chemically inert and capable to be converted into various shapes and sizes of products. Although PE is a commercially potential material, its non-biodegradability caused environmental problems. At present, bio-based polymers become more interesting owing to its bio-degradability, non-toxicity, and renewability as well as being eco-friendly. Thermoplastic starch (TPS) is a bio-based and biodegradable plastic produced from the plasticization of starch under applying heat and shear force. In many researches, TPS was blended with petroleum-based polymers including PE in order to reduce the cost and the use of those polymers. However, the phase separation between hydrophobic PE and hydrophilic TPS limited the amount of TPS incorporated. The immiscibility of two different polarity polymers can be diminished by adding compatibilizer. PE-based compatibilizers, e.g. polyethylene-grafted-maleic anhydride, polyethylene-co-vinyl alcohol, etc. have been applied for the PE/TPS blend system in order to improve their miscibility. Until now, there is no report about the utilization of starch-based compatibilizer for PE/TPS blend system. The aims of the present research were therefore to synthesize a new starch-based compatibilizer, i.e. stearic acid-grafted starch (SA-g-starch) and to study the effect of SA-g-starch on chemical interaction, morphological properties, tensile properties and water vapor as well as oxygen barrier properties of the PE/TPS blend films. PE/TPS blends without and with incorporating SA-g-starch with a content of 1, 3 and 5 part(s) per hundred parts of starch (phr) were prepared using a twin screw extruder and then blown into films using a film blowing machine. Incorporating 1 phr and 3 phr of SA-g-starch could improve miscibility of the two polymers as confirmed from the reduction of TPS phase size and the good dispersion of TPS phase in PE matrix. In addition, the blend containing SA-g-starch with contents of 1 phr and 3 phr exhibited higher tensile strength and extensibility, as well as lower water vapor and oxygen permeabilities than the naked blend. The above results suggested that SA-g-starch could be potentially applied as a compatibilizer for the PE/TPS blend system.

Keywords: blend, compatibilizer, polyethylene, thermoplastic starch

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Agustin Maciel-Padilla

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This paper explores the most significant change to Japan’s security strategy since the end of World War II, in particular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government publication, in late 2022, of 3 policy documents (the National Security Strategy [NSS], the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program) that basically propose to expand the country’s military capabilities and to increase military spending over a 5-year period. These policies represent a remarkable transformation of Japan’s defense-oriented policy followed since 1946. These proposals have been under analysis and debate since they were announced, as it was also Japan’s historic ambition to strengthening its deterrence capabilities in the context of a more complex regional security environment. Even though this new defense posture has attracted significant international attention, it is far from representing a done deal because of the fact that there is still a long way to go to implement this vision because of a wide variety of political and economic issues. Japan is currently experiencing the most dangerous security environment since the end of World War II, and this situation led Japan to intensify its dialogue with the United States to reflect a re-evaluation of deterrence in the face of a rapidly worsening security environment, a changing balance of power in East Asia, and the arrival of a new era of “great power competition”. Japan’s new documents, for instance, identify China and North Korea’s as posing, respectively, a strategic challenge and an imminent threat. Japan has also noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has contributed to erode the foundation of the international order. It is considered that Russia’s aggression was possible because Ukraine’s defense capability was not enough for effective deterrence. Moreover, Japan’s call for “counterstrike capabilities” results from a recognition that China and North Korea’s ballistic and cruise missiles could overwhelm Japan’s air and missile defense systems, and therefore there is an urgent need to strengthen deterrence and resilience. In this context, this paper will focus on the impact of these changes on the US-Japan alliance. Adapting this alliance to Tokyo’s new ambitions and capabilities could be critical in terms of updating their traditional protection/access to bases arrangement, interoperability and joint command and control issues, as well as regarding the security–economy nexus. While China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and trade between the two has been growing, US-Japan economic relationship has been slower, notwithstanding the fact that US-Japan security cooperation has strengthened significantly in recent years.

Keywords: us-japan alliance, japan security, great power competition, interoperability

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Authors: Neda Safari, Jacob Petersen-Perlman

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There are more than two million dams in the United States, and a considerable portion of them are either non-operational or approaching the end of their designed lifespan. However, this emerging trend is new, and the majority of dam sites have not undergone thorough research and assessments after their removal to determine the overall effectiveness of restoration initiatives, particularly in the case of large-scale dams that may significantly impact their surrounding areas. A crucial factor to consider is the lack of specific regulations pertaining to dam removal at the federal level. Consequently, other environmental regulations that were not originally designed with dam removal considerations are used to execute these projects. This can result in delays or challenges for dam removal initiatives. The process of removing dams is usually the most important first step to restore the ecological and biological health of the river, but often there is a lack of measurable indicators to assess if it has achieved its intended objectives. In addition, the majority of studies on dam removal are only short-term and focus on a particular measure of response. Therefore, it is essential to conduct extensive and continuous monitoring to analyze the river's response throughout every aspect. Our study is divided into two sections. The first section of my research will analyze the establishment and utilization of dam removal laws and regulations in the Condit Dam removal process. We will highlight the areas where the frameworks for policy and dam removal projects remain in need of improvement in order to facilitate successful dam removals in the future. In this part, We will review the policies and plans that affected the decision-making process to remove the Condit dam while also looking at how they impacted the physical changes to the river after the dam was removed. In the second section, we will look at the effects of the dam removal over a decade later and attempt to determine how the river's physical response has been impacted by this modification. Our study aims to investigate the Condit dam removal process and its impact on the ecological response of the river. We anticipate identifying areas for improvement in policies pertaining to dam removal projects and exploring ways to enhance them to ensure improved project outcomes in the future.

Keywords: dam removal, ecolocgical change, water related regulation, water resources

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Authors: Hira Lal Gope, Hidekazu Fukai

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The aim of this study is to develop a system which can identify and sort peaberries automatically at low cost for coffee producers in developing countries. In this paper, the focus is on the classification of peaberries and normal coffee beans using image processing and machine learning techniques. The peaberry is not bad and not a normal bean. The peaberry is born in an only single seed, relatively round seed from a coffee cherry instead of the usual flat-sided pair of beans. It has another value and flavor. To make the taste of the coffee better, it is necessary to separate the peaberry and normal bean before green coffee beans roasting. Otherwise, the taste of total beans will be mixed, and it will be bad. In roaster procedure time, all the beans shape, size, and weight must be unique; otherwise, the larger bean will take more time for roasting inside. The peaberry has a different size and different shape even though they have the same weight as normal beans. The peaberry roasts slower than other normal beans. Therefore, neither technique provides a good option to select the peaberries. Defect beans, e.g., sour, broken, black, and fade bean, are easy to check and pick up manually by hand. On the other hand, the peaberry pick up is very difficult even for trained specialists because the shape and color of the peaberry are similar to normal beans. In this study, we use image processing and machine learning techniques to discriminate the normal and peaberry bean as a part of the sorting system. As the first step, we applied Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) as machine learning techniques to discriminate the peaberry and normal bean. As a result, better performance was obtained with CNN than with SVM for the discrimination of the peaberry. The trained artificial neural network with high performance CPU and GPU in this work will be simply installed into the inexpensive and low in calculation Raspberry Pi system. We assume that this system will be used in under developed countries. The study evaluates and compares the feasibility of the methods in terms of accuracy of classification and processing speed.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, coffee bean, peaberry, sorting, support vector machine

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Authors: Ingrid van der Heijden, Kristen Dunkle, Rachel Jewkes

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Background: Emerging literature on prevalence shows that men with disabilities are four more times likely than men without disabilities to experience sexual violence during their lifetime. However, compared to women with disabilities, men with disabilities still have lesser experiences of violence. While empirical evidence on the prevalence of victimization of men with disabilities is emerging, there is scarcer evidence highlighting disabled men’s perpetration of different forms of violence, particularly intimate partner violence. We can assume that men are likely to be both perpetrators and victims of violence, making more complex the causes and risks of violence. Gender norms and disability stigma play important roles in men’s experiences of violence. Men may be stigmatized because of their inability to attain hegemonic masculine ideals of strength, control over women and sexual conquest, which makes them more susceptible to emotional, physical and sexual abuse. Little to no evidence exists of men with disabilities’ experiences of perpetration of intimate partner violence, family violence or community violence. So far studies on male victimization do not succeed to offer contextual evidence that would highlight why and how men with disabilities perpetrate and/or are victims of sexual or other forms of violence. Objective: The overall aim to highlight men with disabilities’ experiences of both victimization and perpetration, and how living up to normative and hegemonic ideals of masculinity and ‘ability’ shape their experiences. It will include: identifying how gender and impairments intersect and shape their experiences of violence; identifying the contexts of and risks for violence; identifying the impacts and consequences of violence on their lives (including mental health impacts), and identifying obstacles and enablers to support and interventions to prevent violence. Methodology: In-depth qualitative interviews with 20 men with disabilities participating in interventions conducted by the What Works Global Programme for violence prevention (DIFD) in Africa and Asia. Men with a range of disabilities will be invited to share their lifetime experiences of violence. Implications for Practice: The data from this study will be used to start thinking about strategies to include men with disabilities in violence prevention strategies for both men and women. Limitations: Because men will be participating in interventions, it is assumed that they will not have severe impairments that hamper their cognitive or physical ability to participate in the intervention activities - and therefore will be able to participate in the in-depth interviews. Of course, this is a limitation of the study as it does not include those men with severe disabilities – measured by the World Health Organization’s International Classification of Functioning - who may be more vulnerable and at higher risk of experiencing violence, and who are less likely to be able to access services and interventions.

Keywords: gender, men with disabilities, perpetration of violence, victimization

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