Search results for: risk based assessment

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Khaled Alkadamani

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Using the simultaneous equations model, this paper examines the impact of capital requirements on bank risk-taking during the recent financial crisis. It also explores the relationship between capital and risk decisions and the impact of economic instability on this relationship. By analyzing the data of 20 Islamic commercial banks between 2004 and 2014 from four Middle East countries, the study concludes a positive effect of regulatory pressure on bank capital in Saudi Arabia and UAE and a negative effect in Jordan and Kuwait. Moreover, the results show a negative impact of regulatory pressure on bank risk taking in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE. The findings reveal also that banks close to the minimum regulatory capital requirements improve their capital adequacy by increasing their capital and decreasing their risk taking. Furthermore, the results show that economic crisis negatively affects bank risk changes, suggesting that banks react to the impact of uncertainty by reducing their risk taking. Finally, the estimations show a negative correlation between banks profitability and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), implying that as more capital is set aside as a buffer for banks safety; it affects the performance of Islamic banks.

Keywords: bank capital, bank regulation, crisis, Islamic banks, risk taking

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Tiberiu Socaciu, Tudor Colomeischi, Eugenia Iancu

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Business failure affects in various proportions shareholders, managers, lenders (banks), suppliers, customers, the financial community, government and society as a whole. In the era in which we have telecommunications networks, exists an interdependence of markets, the effect of a failure of a company is relatively instant. To effectively manage risk exposure is thus require sophisticated support systems, supported by analytical tools to measure, monitor, manage and control operational risks that may arise. As we know, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that managers do not want no matter what stage of life is the company they direct / lead. In the analysis made by us, by the nature of economic models that are reviewed (Altman, Conan-Holder etc.), estimating the risk of bankruptcy of a company corresponds to some extent with its own business cycle tracing of the company. Various models for predicting bankruptcy take into account direct / indirect aspects such as market position, company growth trend, competition structure, characteristics and customer retention, organization and distribution, location etc. From the perspective of our research we will now review the economic models known in theory and practice for estimating the risk of bankruptcy; such models are based on indicators drawn from major accounting firms.

Keywords: Anglo-Saxon models, continental models, national models, statistical models

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Authors: Christos E. Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Tamta Sirbilatze, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vicky Dradaki, Konstantina Panouria, Irini Dri, Christina Kordali, Vaggelis Lambas, Georgios Mavras

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Objectives: Full Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) questionnaire is one of the most useful tools in diagnosis of malnutrition in hospitalized patients, which is related to increased morbidity and mortality. The purpose of our study was to assess the nutritional status of elderly, hospitalized patients and examine the hypothesis that MNA may predict mortality and extension of hospitalization. Methods: One hundred fifty patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2) were included in this cross-sectional study. The following data were taken into account in analysis: anthropometric and laboratory data, physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, dietary habits, cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission. The latter was compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Logistic regression and linear regression analysis were performed in order to identify independent predictors for mortality and extended hospitalization respectively. Results: According to MNA, nutrition was normal in 54/150 (36%) of patients, 46/150 (30.7%) of them were at risk of malnutrition and the rest 50/150 (33.3%) were malnourished. After performing multivariate logistic regression analysis we found that the odds of death decreased 20% per each unit increase of full MNA score (OR=0.8, 95% CI 0.74-0.89, p < 0.0001). Patients who admitted due to cancer were 23 times more likely to die, compared to those with infection (OR=23, 95% CI 3.8-141.6, p=0.001). Similarly, patients who admitted due to stroke were 7 times more likely to die (OR=7, 95% CI 1.4-34.5, p=0.02), while these with all other causes of admission were less likely (OR=0.2, 95% CI 0.06-0.8, p=0.03), compared to patients with infection. According to multivariate linear regression analysis, each increase of unit of full MNA, decreased the admission duration on average 0.3 days (b:-0.3, 95% CI -0.45 - -0.15, p < 0.0001). Patients admitted due to cancer had on average 6.8 days higher extension of hospitalization, compared to those admitted for infection (b:6.8, 95% CI 3.2-10.3, p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Mortality and extension of hospitalization is significantly increased in elderly, malnourished patients. Full MNA score is a useful diagnostic tool of malnutrition.

Keywords: duration of admission, malnutrition, mini nutritional assessment score, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: Heikki Valmu, Eero Kupila, Raisa Vartia

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A major curricular reform was implemented in Metropolia UAS in 2014. The teaching was to be based on larger course entities and collaborative pedagogy. The most thorough reform was conducted in the department of electrical engineering and automation technology. It has been already shown that the reform has been extremely successful with respect to student progression and drop-out rate. The improvement of the results has been much more significant in this department compared to the other engineering departments making only minor pedagogical changes. In the beginning of the spring term of 2017, a thorough student feedback project was conducted in the department. The study consisted of thirty questions about the implementation of the curriculum, the student workload and other matters related to student satisfaction. The reply rate was more than 40%. The students were divided to four different categories: first year students [cat.1] and students of all the three different majors [categories 2-4]. These categories were found valid since all the students have the same course structure in the first two semesters after which they may freely select the major. All staff members are divided into four teams respectively. The curriculum consists of consecutive 15 credit (ECTS) courses each taught by a group of teachers (3-5). There are to be no end exams and continuous assessment is to be employed. In 2014 the different teacher groups were encouraged to employ innovatively different assessment methods within the given specs. One of these methods has been since used in categories 1 and 2. These students have to complete a number of compulsory tasks each week to pass the course and the actual grade is defined by a smaller number of tests throughout the course. The tasks vary from homework assignments, reports and laboratory exercises to larger projects and the actual smaller tests are usually organized during the regular lecture hours. The teachers of the other two majors have been pedagogically more conservative. The student progression has been better in categories 1 and 2 compared to categories 3 and 4. One of the main goals of this survey was to analyze the reasons for the difference and the assessment methods in detail besides the general student satisfaction. The results show that in the categories following more strictly the specified assessment model much more versatile assessment methods are used and the basic spirit of the new pedagogy is followed. Also, the student satisfaction is significantly better in categories 1 and 2. It may be clearly stated that continuous assessment and teacher cooperation improve the learning outcomes, student progression as well as student satisfaction. Too much academic freedom seems to lead to worse results [cat 3 and 4]. A standardized assessment model is launched for all students in autumn 2017. This model is different from the one used so far in categories 1 and 2 allowing more flexibility to teacher groups, but it will force all the teacher groups to follow the general rules in order to improve the results and the student satisfaction further.

Keywords: continuous assessment, course integration, curricular reform, student feedback

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Authors: Deanna Ruano-Meas, Laura Shenkman

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Variances are seen in the way healthcare personnel (HCP) don and doff PPE risking contamination to self and others. By standardizing practice, variances in technique decrease, and so does the risk of contamination. To implement this change, the Model for Improvement will be used. A system change will be developed that will outline the role of the organizational leader’s support of HCP in the proper donning and doffing of PPE. Interventions will include environmental surveys to assess the safety and work situation ensuring a permissible environment, plan audits to confirm consistency, and the assessment of PPE wear for standardization. The change will also include an educational plan that will involve instruction of the current guidelines recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to all pertinent HCP, and the incorporation of PPE education in yearly educational training. The goal is a standardized practice and a reduced risk of contamination through education and organizational support. Personal protective equipment has had recent attention with the coming of the SARS-CoV-2. The realization that proper technique is important to decreasing contamination of pathogens has led to the revising of current processes.

Keywords: donning and doffing, HAI, infection control, PPE

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Authors: A. Esra İdemen, Sinan M. Şener, Emrah Acar

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The technological paradigm of the disaster management field, especially in the case of governmental intervention strategies, is generally based on rapid and flexible accommodation solutions. From various technical solution patterns used to address the immediate housing needs of disaster victims, the adaptive re-use of existing buildings can be considered to be both low-cost and practical. However, there is a scarcity of analytical methods to screen, select and adapt buildings to help decision makers in cases of emergency. Following an extensive literature review, this paper aims to highlight key points and problem areas associated with the adaptive re-use of buildings within the disaster management context. In other disciplines such as real estate management, the adaptive re-use potential (ARP) of existing buildings is typically based on the prioritization of a set of technical and non-technical criteria which are then weighted to arrive at an economically viable investment decision. After a disaster, however, the assessment of the ARP of buildings requires consideration of different/additional layers of analysis which stem from general disaster management principles and the peculiarities of different types of disasters, as well as of their victims. In this paper, a discussion of the development of an adaptive re-use potential (ARP) assessment model is presented. It is thought that governmental and non-governmental decision makers who are required to take quick decisions to accommodate displaced masses following disasters are likely to benefit from the implementation of such a model.

Keywords: adaptive re-use of buildings, disaster management, temporary housing, assessment model

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Authors: Negar Miri-Lavasani

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Background: Children with Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) show fine motor skills difficulties, and it is controversial whether this difficulty is based on problems in their fine motor skills or their executive function impairments. Objectives of Study: The Fine Motor and Executive Function assessment tool (FiM&EF) was developed to answer the question, ‘Do the fine motor skill deficits in children with ADHD come from their fine motor problems or is it caused by their executive function problems?’. This paper describes the development of a new assessment of Fine Motor and Executive Function (FiM &EF) needed by primary school students with ADHD aged 6-12 years with ADHD. Methods: A study on the content validity established through a survey of a panel of nine experts is explained in detail. Findings: Most the experts agreed such an assessment was needed and two items were deleted as a result of experts’ feedback. Relevance to Clinical Practice: Distinguishing the main reason of fine motor problem in these children could help the clinician for their therapy plans. Knowledge on the influence of executive functioning on fine motor ability in selected age children with ADHD would provide a clearer clinical picture of the fine motor capabilities and executive function for these children.

Keywords: children with ADHD, executive function, fine motor, test

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Authors: Dimitra V. Peristeri, Hussameldin M. Nour, Amiya Ahsan, Sameh Abogabal, Krishna K. Singh, Muhammad Shafique Sajid

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Introduction: The use of optimal skin antiseptic agents for the prevention of surgical site infection (SSI) is of critical importance, especially during abdominal surgical procedures. Alcohol-based chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) and aqueous-based povidone-iodine (PVI) are the two most common skin antiseptics used nowadays. The objective of this article is to evaluate the effectiveness of alcohol-based CHG versus aqueous-based PVI used for skin preparation before abdominal surgery to reduce SSIs. Methods: Standard medical databases such as MEDLINE, Embase, Pubmed, and Cochrane Library were searched to find randomised, controlled trials (RCTs) comparing alcohol-based CHG skin preparation versus aqueous-based PVI in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. The combined outcomes of SSIs were calculated using an odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). All data were analysed using Review Manager (RevMan) Software 5.4, and the meta-analysis was performed with a random effect model analysis. Results: A total of 11 studies, all RCTs, were included (n= 12072 participants), recruiting adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery. In the random effect model analysis, the use of alcohol-based CHG in patients undergoing abdominal surgery was associated with a reduced risk of SSI compared to aqueous-based PVI (OR: 0.84; 95% CI [0.74, 0.96], z= 2.61, p= 0.009). Conclusion: Alcohol-based CHG may be more effective for preventing the risk of SSI compared to aqueous-based PVI agents in abdominal surgery. The conclusion of this meta-analysis may add a guiding value to reinforce current clinical practice guidelines.

Keywords: skin preparation, surgical site infection, chlorhexidine, skin antiseptics

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Authors: Andi Fallahi, Bona Ryan Situmeang

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The Construction Industry is notoriously risky. Much of the preparatory paperwork that precedes construction project can be viewed as the formulation of risk allocation between the owner and the Contractor. The Owner is taking the risk that his project will not get built on the schedule that it will not get built for what he has budgeted and that it will not be of the quality he expected. The Contractor Face a multitude of risk. One of them is an unforeseen condition at the construction site. The Owner usually has the upper hand here if the unforeseen condition occurred. Site data contained in Ground Investigation report is often of significant contractual importance in disputes related to the unforeseen ground condition. A ground investigation can never fully disclose all the details of the underground condition (Risk of an unknown ground condition can never be 100% eliminated). Adipala Coal Fired Steam Power Plant (CSFPP) 1 x 660 project is one of the large CSFPP project in Indonesia based on Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Contract. Unforeseen Ground Condition it’s responsible by the Contractor has stipulated in the clausal of Contract. In the implementation, there’s indicated unforeseen ground condition at Circulating Water Pump House (CWPH) area which caused the Contractor should be changed the Method of Work that give big impact against Time of Completion and Cost Project. This paper tries to analyze the best way for allocating the risk between The Owner and The Contractor. All parties that allocating of sharing risk fairly can ultimately save time and money for all parties, and get the job done on schedule for the least overall cost.

Keywords: unforeseen ground condition, coal fired steam power plant, circulating water pump house, Indonesia

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Authors: Jacek Kabzinski, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Ireneusz Majsterek

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The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing from year to year. Despite intensive research CRC etiology remains unknown. Studies suggest that at the basis of the process of carcinogenesis can lie reduced efficiency of DNA repair mechanisms, often caused by polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Pro242Arg of PolB gene and Arg780His of Lig3 gene and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 780Arg/His of Lig3 gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. On the basis of these results, we conclude that Lig3 gene polymorphism Arg780His may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Keywords: BER, colorectal cancer, PolB, Lig3, polymorphisms

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Authors: J. A. Batsis, G. G. Boateng, L. M. Seo, C. L. Petersen, K. L. Fortuna, E. V. Wechsler, R. J. Peterson, S. B. Cook, D. Pidgeon, R. S. Dokko, R. J. Halter, D. F. Kotz

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Resistance exercise bands are a core component of any physical activity strengthening program. Strength training can mitigate the development of sarcopenia, the loss of muscle mass or strength and function with aging. Yet, the adherence of such behavioral exercise strategies in a home-based setting are fraught with issues of monitoring and compliance. Our group developed a Bluetooth-enabled resistance exercise band capable of transmitting data to an open-source platform. In this work, we developed an application to capture this information in real-time, and conducted three usability studies in two mixed-aged groups of participants (n=6 each) and a group of older adults with obesity participating in a weight-loss intervention (n=20). The system was favorable, acceptable and provided iterative information that could assist in future deployment on ubiquitous platforms. Our formative work provides the foundation to deliver home-based monitoring interventions in a high-risk, older adult population.

Keywords: application, mHealth, older adult, resistance exercise band, sarcopenia

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Authors: Sana Dridi, Jalel Aouissi, Rafla Attia, Taoufik Hermassi, Thouraya Sahli

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Soil erosion is an increasing issue in Mediterranean countries. In Tunisia, the capacity of dam reservoirs continues to decrease as a consequence of soil erosion. This study aims to predict sediment yield to enrich soil management practices using Soil and Water Assessment Tools model (SWAT) in the Siliana watershed (1041.6 km²), located in the northwest of Tunisia. A database was constructed using remote sensing and Geographical Information System. Climatic and flow data were collected from water resources directorates in Tunisia. The SWAT model was built to simulate hydrological processes and sediment transport. A sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation were performed using SWAT-CUP software. The model calibration of stream flow simulations shows a good performance with NSE and R² values of 0.77 and 0.79, respectively. The model validation shows a very good performance with values of NSE and R² for 0.8 and 0.88, respectively. After calibration and validation of stream flow simulation, the model was used to simulate the soil erosion and sediment load transport. The spatial distributions of soil loss rate for determining the critical sediment source areas show that 63 % of the study area has a low soil loss rate less than 7 t ha⁻¹y⁻¹. The annual average soil loss rate simulated with the SWAT model in the Siliana watershed is 4.62 t ha⁻¹y⁻¹.

Keywords: water erosion, SWAT model, streamflow, SWATCUP, sediment yield

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Authors: Chi-Jung Chung, Chao-Hsiang Chang, Chiu-Shong Liu, Sheng-Wei Li, Mu-Chi Chung, Ting-Jie Wen, Hui-Ling Lee

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Cigarette smoke contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as acrylamide, 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. This study aimed to explore the associations between the urinary levels of cotinine and VOC metabolites and the risk of urothelial carcinoma (UC). A hospital-based case–control study involving two groups matched on the basis of age ( ± 3 years) and gender was designed. UC was clinically diagnosed through urological examinations and pathologically verified. Smoking-related information was collected through questionnaires and face-to-face interviews with all study participants. Urine samples were collected for the analysis of the urinary levels of VOC metabolites, cotinine, and 8-hydroxydeoxygua- nosine (8-OHdG), which was selected as a proxy of oxidative stress. Multiple logistic regressions were applied to estimate the risk of UC. The urinary cotinine and 8-OHdG levels of the UC group were higher than those of the control group. The urinary levels of VOC metabolites, including N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl)-L-cysteine (AAMA), N- acetyl-S-(2-carbamoyl-2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine, N-acetyl-S- (4- hydroxy-2-buten-1-yl)-Lcysteine-3, trans, trans-muconic acid (t,t- MA), and S-phenylmercapturic acid (SPMA) increased as the urinary levels of cotinine increased. Relevant dose-response relationships between the risk of UC risk and the urinary levels of AAMA , t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were found after adjusting for potential risk factors. The UC risk of participants with high urinary levels of cotinine, AAMA, t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were 3.5–6-fold higher than those of other participants. Increased urinary levels of VOC metabolites were associated with smoking-related UC risk. The development of UC should be explored in large-scale in vitro or in vivo studies with the repeated measurement of VOC metabolites.

Keywords: volatile organic compound, urothelial carcinoma, cotinine, 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

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The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1)link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2)enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3)establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5)construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6)support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7)emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: capacity building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), Natural Disaster Management, Thailand

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Authors: David Ofosu-Hamilton, John K. E. Edumadze

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Universities have come to recognize the role Information and Communication Technology (ICT) skills plays in the daily activities of tertiary students. The ability to use ICT – essentially, computers and their diverse applications – are important resources that influence an individual’s economic and social participation and human capital development. Our society now increasingly relies on the Internet, and the Cloud as a means to communicate and disseminate information. The educated individual should, therefore, be able to use ICT to create and share knowledge that will improve society. It is, therefore, important that universities require incoming students to demonstrate a level of computer proficiency or trained to do so at a minimal cost by deploying advanced educational technologies. The training and standardized assessment of all in-coming first-year students of the University of Cape Coast in Information Technology Skills (ITS) have become a necessity as students’ most often than not highly overestimate their digital skill and digital ignorance is costly to any economy. The one-semester course is targeted at fresh students and aimed at enhancing the productivity and software skills of students. In this respect, emphasis is placed on skills that will enable students to be proficient in using Microsoft Office and Google Apps for Education for their academic work and future professional work whiles using emerging digital multimedia technologies in a safe, ethical, responsible, and legal manner. The course is delivered in blended mode - online and self-paced (student centered) using Alison’s free cloud-based tutorial (Moodle) of Microsoft Office videos. Online support is provided via discussion forums on the University’s Moodle platform and tutor-directed and assisted at the ICT Centre and Google E-learning laboratory. All students are required to register for the ITS course during either the first or second semester of the first year and must participate and complete it within a semester. Assessment focuses on Alison online assessment on Microsoft Office, Alison online assessment on ALISON ABC IT, Peer assessment on e-portfolio created using Google Apps/Office 365 and an End of Semester’s online assessment at the ICT Centre whenever the student was ready in the cause of the semester. This paper, therefore, focuses on the digital culture approach of hybrid teaching, learning and paperless examinations and the possible adoption by other courses or programs at the University of Cape Coast.

Keywords: assessment, blended, cloud, paperless

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Authors: Christian Luarca

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The study aims to define the efficiency of e-Trainings by the use of cloud platform as part of the onboarding process for IT support engineers. Traditional lecture based trainings involves human resource to guide and assist new hires as part of onboarding which takes time and effort. The use of electronic medium as a platform for training provides a two-way basic communication that can be done in a repetitive manner. The study focuses on determining the most efficient manner of learning the basic knowledge on IT support in the shortest time possible. This was determined by conducting the same set of knowledge transfer categories in two different approaches, one being the e-Training and the other using the traditional method. Performance assessment will be done by the use of Service Tracker Assessment (STA) Tool and Service Manager. Data gathered from this ongoing study will promote the utilization of e-Trainings in the IT onboarding process.

Keywords: cloud platform, e-Training, efficiency, onboarding

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Authors: Manas Tripathi, Arunabha Mukhopadhyay

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In Cloud computing environment, cloud servers, sometimes may crash after receiving huge amount of request and cloud services may stop which can create huge loss to users of that cloud services. This situation is called Denial of Service (DoS) attack. In Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, an attacker targets multiple network paths by compromising various vulnerable systems (zombies) and floods the victim with huge amount of request through these zombies. There are many solutions to mitigate this challenge but most of the methods allows the attack traffic to arrive at Cloud Service Provider (CSP) and then only takes actions against mitigation. Here in this paper we are rather focusing on preventive mechanism to deal with these attacks. We analyze network topology and find most vulnerable paths beforehand without waiting for the traffic to arrive at CSP. We have used Dijkstra's and Yen’s algorithm. Finally, risk assessment of these paths can be done by multiplying the probabilities of attack for these paths with the potential loss.

Keywords: cloud computing, DDoS, Dijkstra, Yen’s k-shortest path, network security

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Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani

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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.

Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Mirzaei

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Children are among the most vulnerable at the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Most of the management and measures which are considered for both before and during an earthquake are neither suitable nor efficient for this age group and cannot be applied. On the other hand, due to their age, it is hard to educate and train children to learn and understand the concept of earthquake risk mitigation as matters like earthquake prevention and safe places during an earthquake are not easily perceived. To our knowledge, children’s awareness of such concepts via their own world with the help of games is the best training method in this case. In this article, the researcher has tried to consider the child an active element before and during the earthquake. With training, provided by adults before the incidence of an earthquake, the child has the ability to learn disaster risk reduction (DRR). The focus of this research is on learning risk reduction behavior and regarding children as an individual element. The information of this article has been gathered from library resources, observations and the drawings of 10 children aged 5 whose subject was their conceptual definition of an earthquake who were asked to illustrate their conceptual definition of an earthquake; the results of 20 questionnaires filled in by preschoolers along with information gathered by interviewing them. The design of the suitable educational game, appropriate for the needs of this age group, has been made based on the theory of design with help of the user and the priority of children’s learning needs. The final result is a package of a game which is comprised of a learning table and matching cards showing sign marks for safe and unsafe places which introduce the safe behaviors and safe locations before and during the earthquake. These educational games can be used both in group contexts in kindergartens and on an individual basis at home, and they help in earthquake risk reduction.

Keywords: disaster education, earthquake sign marks, learning table, matching card, risk reduction behavior

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Authors: Nitzan Winograd, Nada Kakabadse

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This study examines whether the hospitality-based social enterprise Ringelblum Café is achieving its stated social goals of developing a sense of self-efficacy among at-risk youth who work in this enterprise and raising levels of recruitment to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and National Service (NS) among these young adults. Ringelblum Café was founded in 2009 in Be'er-Sheva in order to provide employment solutions for at-risk youth in the southern district of Israel. Each year, 10 at-risk young adults aged 16–18 are referred to the programme by various welfare agencies. The training programme is approximately a year in duration and includes professional training in the art of cooking. Each young adult is also supported by a social worker. This study is based on the participation of 31 youths who graduated from the Ringelblum Café’s training programme. A convenience sampling model was used with the assistance of the programme's social worker. This study is quantitative in its approach. Data was collected by means of three separate self-reported questionnaires: a personal information questionnaire collected general demographics data; a self-efficacy questionnaire consisted of two parts: general self-efficacy and social self-efficacy; and an IDS/NS recruitment questionnaire. The study uses the theory of change in order to find out whether at-risk youth in the Ringelblum Café programme are taught a profession with future prospects, as well as whether they develop a sense of self-efficacy and raise their chances of recruitment into the IDF/NS. The study found that the sense of self-efficacy of the graduates is relatively high. In addition, there was a significant difference between the importance of recruitment to the IDF/NS among these youth prior to the beginning of the programme and after its completion, indicating that the training programme had a positive effect on motivation for recruitment to the IDF/NS. The study also found that the percentage of recruits to the IDF/NS among youth who graduated from the training programme were not significantly higher than the general recruitment figures in Israel. In conclusion, Ringelblum Café is making sound progress towards achieving its social goals regarding recruitment to the IDF/NS. Moreover, the sense of self-efficacy among the graduates is relatively high, and it can be assumed that the training programme has a positive effect on these young adults, although there is no clear connection between the two. This study is among a few that have been conducted in the field of hospitality-based social enterprises in Israel and can serve as a basis for further research. Moreover, the study results may help improve the perception of at-risk youth and their contribution to society and could increase awareness of the growing trend of social enterprises promoting social goals.

Keywords: at-risk youth, Israel Defence Forces (IDF), national service, recruitment, self-efficacy, social enterprise

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Authors: Sirimanee Banjong

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This study aimed to 1) develop pre-service teachers’ leadership skills through camp-based learning, and 2) develop pre-service teachers’ teamwork skills through camp-based learning. An applied research methodology was used. The target group was derived from a purposive selection. It involved 32 fourth-year students in Early Childhood Education Program enrolling in a course entitled Seminar in Early Childhood Education provided during the second semester of the academic year 2013. The treatment was camp-based learning activities which applied a PDCA process including four stages: 1) plan, 2) do, 3) check, and 4) act. Research instruments were a learning camp program, a camp-based learning management plan, a 5-level assessment form for leadership skills and a 5-level assessment form for assessing teamwork skills. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results were: 1) pre-service teachers’ leadership skills yielded the before treatment average score at ¯("x" )=3.4, S.D.= 0.62 and the after-treatment average score at ¯("x" ) 4.29, S.D.=0.66 pre-service teachers’ teamwork skills yielded the before-treatment average score at ¯("x" )=3.31, S.D.= 0.60 and the after-treatment average score at ¯("x" )=4.42, S.D.= 0.66. Both differences were statistically significant at the .05 level. Thus, the pre-service teachers’ leadership and teamwork skills were significantly improved through the camp-based learning approach.

Keywords: learning camp, leadership skills, teamwork skills, pre-service teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Jung Ae Park, Jooyong Park

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Writing is an important learning activity that cultivates higher level thinking. Effective and immediate feedback is necessary to help improve students' writing skills. Peer assessment can be an effective method in writing tasks because it makes it possible for students not only to receive quick feedback on their writing but also to get a chance to examine different perspectives on the same topic. Peer assessment can be practiced frequently and has the advantage of immediate feedback. However, there is controversy about the accuracy of peer assessment. In this study, we tried to demonstrate experimentally how the accuracy of peer assessment could be improved. Participants (n=76) were randomly assigned to groups of 4 members. All the participant graded two sets of 4 essays on the same topic. They graded the first set twice, and the second set or the posttest once. After the first grading of the first set, each group in the experimental condition 1 (discussion group), were asked to discuss the results of the peer assessment and then to grade the essays again. Each group in the experimental condition 2 (reading group), were asked to read the assessment on each essay by an expert and then to grade the essays again. In the control group, the participants were asked to grade the 4 essays twice in different orders. Afterwards, all the participants graded the second set of 4 essays. The mean score from 4 participants was calculated for each essay. The accuracy of the peer assessment was measured by Pearson correlation with the scores of the expert. The results were analyzed by two-way repeated measure ANOVA. The main effect of grading was observed: Grading accuracy got better as the number of grading experience increased. Analysis of posttest accuracy revealed that the score variations within a group of 4 participants decreased in both discussion and reading conditions but not in the control condition. These results suggest that having students discuss their grading together can be an efficient means to improve peer assessment accuracy. By discussing, students can learn from others about what to consider in grading and whether their grading is too strict or lenient. Further research is needed to examine the exact cause of the grading accuracy.

Keywords: peer assessment, evaluation accuracy, discussion, score variations

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: S. Zolghadri, M. Naderi, H. Yousefnia, A. Ramazani, A. R. Jalilian

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The aim of this work was to evaluate the values of absorbed dose of 68Ga-DOTATOC in numerous human organs. 68Ga-DOTATOC was prepared with the radiochemical purity of higher than 98% and by specific activity of 39.6 MBq/nmol. The complex demonstrated great stability at room temperature and in human serum at 37° C at least 2 h after preparation. Significant uptake was observed in somatostatin receptor-positive tissues such as pancreas and adrenal. The absorbed dose received by human organs was evaluated based on biodistribution studies in Syrian rats by the radiation absorbed dose assessment resource (RADAR) method. Maximum absorbed dose was obtained in the pancreas, kidneys, and adrenal with 0.105, 0.074, and 0.010 mGy/MBq, respectively. The effective absorbed dose was 0.026 mSv/MBq for 68Ga-DOTATOC. The results showed that 68Ga-DOTATOC can be considered as a safe and effective agent for clinically PET imaging applications.

Keywords: effective absorbed dose, Ga-68, octreotide, MIRD

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Edson Vengesai

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Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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A cutting-edge online knowledge mediation system called "ePLANETe" provides a framework for building knowledge, tools and methods for all education, research and sustainable practices and elsewhere, as well as the deliberative assessment support of sustainability, biodiversity, and stakeholder involvement issues of the territorial development sector, e.g., agriculture.The purpose is to present, as sectorial and institutional perception, the 'ePLANETe' concept and functionalities as an experimental online platform for contributing the sustainability assessment, biodiversity, and stakeholder involvement. In the upshot, the concept of 'ePLANETe'isan investigation of the challenges of "online things, technology and application". The new digital technologies are exploited to facilitate collaborative technology and application to territorial development issues, e.g., agriculture. In order to investigate the dealing capacity (Qualitative and Quantitative) of sustainability, biodiversity, and stakeholder involvement of the agriculture sector through the stakeholder-based integrated assessment "Deliberation Support Tools (DST) and INTEGRAAL method" of collective resources. Specifically, this paper focuses on integrating system methodologies with deliberation tools for collective assessment and decision-making in implementing regional plans of agriculture. The aim of this report is to identify effective knowledge and tools and to enable deliberation methodologies regarding practices on the sustainability of agriculture and biodiversity issues, societal responsibilities, and regional planning that will create the scope for qualitative and quantitative assessments of sustainability as a new landmark of the agriculture sector.

Keywords: sustainability, biodiversity, stakeholder, dst, integraal

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Joel Podgorski, Manouchehr Amini, Annette Johnson, Michael Berg

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One-third of the world’s population relies on groundwater for its drinking water. Natural geogenic arsenic and fluoride contaminate ~10% of wells. Prolonged exposure to high levels of arsenic can result in various internal cancers, while high levels of fluoride are responsible for the development of dental and crippling skeletal fluorosis. In poor urban and rural settings, the provision of drinking water free of geogenic contamination can be a major challenge. In order to efficiently apply limited resources in the testing of wells, water resource managers need to know where geogenically contaminated groundwater is likely to occur. The Groundwater Assessment Platform (GAP) fulfills this need by providing state-of-the-art global arsenic and fluoride contamination hazard maps as well as enabling users to create their own groundwater quality models. The global risk models were produced by logistic regression of arsenic and fluoride measurements using predictor variables of various soil, geological and climate parameters. The maps display the probability of encountering concentrations of arsenic or fluoride exceeding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) stipulated concentration limits of 10 µg/L or 1.5 mg/L, respectively. In addition to a reconsideration of the relevant geochemical settings, these second-generation maps represent a great improvement over the previous risk maps due to a significant increase in data quantity and resolution. For example, there is a 10-fold increase in the number of measured data points, and the resolution of predictor variables is generally 60 times greater. These same predictor variable datasets are available on the GAP platform for visualization as well as for use with a modeling tool. The latter requires that users upload their own concentration measurements and select the predictor variables that they wish to incorporate in their models. In addition, users can upload additional predictor variable datasets either as features or coverages. Such models can represent an improvement over the global models already supplied, since (a) users may be able to use their own, more detailed datasets of measured concentrations and (b) the various processes leading to arsenic and fluoride groundwater contamination can be isolated more effectively on a smaller scale, thereby resulting in a more accurate model. All maps, including user-created risk models, can be downloaded as PDFs. There is also the option to share data in a secure environment as well as the possibility to collaborate in a secure environment through the creation of communities. In summary, GAP provides users with the means to reliably and efficiently produce models specific to their region of interest by making available the latest datasets of predictor variables along with the necessary modeling infrastructure.

Keywords: arsenic, fluoride, groundwater contamination, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Jingyu Hou

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This paper proposes a new teaching and learning approach-project and Module Based Teaching and Learning (PMBTL). The PMBTL approach incorporates the merits of project/problem based and module based learning methods, and overcomes the limitations of these methods. The correlation between teaching, learning, practice, and assessment is emphasized in this approach, and new methods have been proposed accordingly. The distinct features of these new methods differentiate the PMBTL approach from conventional teaching approaches. Evaluation of this approach on practical teaching and learning activities demonstrates the effectiveness and stability of the approach in improving the performance and quality of teaching and learning. The approach proposed in this paper is also intuitive to the design of other teaching units.

Keywords: computer science education, project and module based, software engineering, module based teaching and learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Yozna Gurung

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This paper presents preliminary findings from an on-going study on the use of Internal State Terms (IST) in the production of narratives of Hindi-English bilinguals in an attempt to identify children at risk for Specific Language Impairment. Narratives were examined for macrostructure (story structure and story complexity) and internal state terms or mental state terms (IST/MST). 31 students generated stories based on six pictures that were matched for content and story structure in L1 (Hindi) and L2 (English) using a wordless picture narrative. From 30 sample population, 2 students are at risk of Specific Language Impairment, according to this study i.e 6.45%. They showed least development in story grammar as well as IST in both their languages.

Keywords: internal state terms, macrostructure, specific language impairment, wordless picture narrative

Procedia PDF Downloads 216