Search results for: interlaminar damage model

Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

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A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Justina I. R. Udotong, Essien U. Essien

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Diagnostic enzymes like aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were determined as indices of heavy metal pollution in Tilapia guinensis. Three different sets of fishes treated with lead (Pb), iron (Fe) and copper (Cu) were used for the study while a fourth group with no heavy metal served as a control. Fishes in each of the groups were exposed to 2.65 mg/l of Pb, 0.85 mg/l of Fe and 0.35 mg/l of Cu in aerated aquaria for 96 hours. Tissue fractionation of the liver tissues was carried out and the three diagnostic enzymes (AST, ALT, and ALP) were estimated. Serum levels of the same diagnostic enzymes were also measured. The mean values of the serum enzyme activity for ALP in each experimental group were 19.5±1.62, 29.67±2.17 and 1.15±0.27 IU/L for Pb, Fe and Cu groups compared with 9.99±1.34 IU/L enzyme activity in the control. This result showed that Pb and Fe caused increased release of the enzyme into the blood circulation indicating increased tissue damage while Cu caused a reduction in the serum level as compared with the level in the control group. The mean values of enzyme activity obtained in the liver were 102.14±6.12, 140.17±2.06 and 168.23±3.52 IU/L for Pb, Fe and Cu groups, respectively compared to 91.20±9.42 IU/L enzyme activity for the control group. The serum and liver AST and ALT activities obtained in Pb, Fe, Cu and control groups are reported. It was generally noted that the presence of the heavy metal caused liver tissues damage and consequent increased level of the diagnostic enzymes in the serum.

Keywords: diagnostic enzymes, enzyme activity, heavy metals, tissues investigations

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Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim

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In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption, we can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, self-adaptive, UML, vehicle

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Authors: Ahmad Zaini, F. Muhammad Reza Hadafi, Surya Sumpeno, Muhtadin, Mochamad Hariadi

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The lack of information about museum’s collection reduces the number of visits of museum. Museum’s revitalization is an urgent activity to increase the number of visits. The research's roadmap is building a web-based application that visualizes museum in the virtual form including museum's statue reconstruction in the form of 3D. This paper describes implementation of three-dimensional model reconstruction method based on light-strip pattern on the museum statue using 3D scanner. Noise removal, alignment, meshing and refinement model's processes is implemented to get a better 3D object reconstruction. Model’s texture derives from surface texture mapping between object's images with reconstructed 3D model. Accuracy test of dimension of the model is measured by calculating relative error of virtual model dimension compared against the original object. The result is realistic three-dimensional model textured with relative error around 4.3% to 5.8%.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction, light pattern structure, texture mapping, museum

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Authors: Yi-Guang Li, Suresh Sampath

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Gas turbine performance degrades over time, and the degradation is greatly affected by environmental, ambient, and operating conditions. The engines may degrade slowly under favorable conditions and result in a waste of engine life if a scheduled maintenance scheme is followed. They may also degrade fast and fail before a scheduled overhaul if the conditions are unfavorable, resulting in serious secondary damage, loss of engine availability, and increased maintenance costs. To overcome these problems, gas turbine owners are gradually moving from scheduled maintenance to condition-based maintenance, where condition monitoring is one of the key supporting technologies. This paper presents an integrated adaptive GPA diagnostics and performance monitoring system developed at Cranfield University for gas turbine gas path condition monitoring. It has the capability to predict the performance degradation of major gas path components of gas turbine engines, such as compressors, combustors, and turbines, using gas path measurement data. It is also able to predict engine key performance parameters for condition monitoring, such as turbine entry temperature that cannot be directly measured. The developed technology has been implemented into digital twin computer Software, Pythia, to support the condition monitoring of gas turbine engines. The capabilities of the integrated GPA condition monitoring system are demonstrated in three test cases using a model gas turbine engine similar to the GE aero-derivative LM2500 engine widely used in power generation and marine propulsion. It shows that when the compressor of the model engine degrades, the Adaptive GPA is able to predict the degradation and the changing engine performance accurately using gas path measurements. Such a presented technology and software are generic, can be applied to different types of gas turbine engines, and provide crucial engine health and performance parameters to support condition monitoring and condition-based maintenance.

Keywords: gas turbine, adaptive GPA, performance, diagnostics, condition monitoring

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Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

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Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda

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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.

Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test

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Authors: Anurag Savarnya

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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

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Authors: John G. Skelly, Peter K. Dearden, Thomas W. R. Harrop, Sarah N. Inwood, Joseph Guhlin

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The Argentine stem weevil (ASW; L. bonariensis) is an economically important pasture pest in New Zealand, which causes about $200 million of damage per annum. Microctonus hyperodae (Mh), a parasite of the ASW in its natural range in South America, was introduced into New Zealand to curb the pasture damage caused by the ASW. Mh is an endoparasitic wasp that lays its eggs in the ASW halting its reproduction. Mh was initially successful at preventing ASW proliferation and reducing pasture damage. The effectiveness of Mh has since declined due to decreased parasitism rates and has resulted in increased pasture damage. Although the mechanism through which ASW has developed resistance to Mh has not been discovered, it has been proposed to be due to the different reproductive modes used by Mh and the ASW in New Zealand. The ASW reproduces sexually, whereas Mh reproduces asexually, which has been hypothesised to have allowed the ASW to ‘out evolve’ Mh. Other species within the Microctonus genus reproduce both sexually and asexually. Strains of Microctonus aethiopoides (Ma), a species closely related to Mh, reproduce either by sexual or asexual reproduction. Comparing the genomes of sexual and asexual Microctonus may allow for the identification of the mechanism of asexual reproduction and other characteristics that may improve Mh as a biocontrol agent. The genomes of Mh and three strains of Ma, two of which reproduce sexually and one reproduces asexually, have been sequenced and annotated. The French (MaFR) and Moroccan (MaMO) reproduce sexually, whereas the Irish strain (MaIR) reproduces asexually. Like Mh, The Ma strains are also used as biocontrol agents, but for different weevil species. The genomes of Mh and MaIR were subsequently upgraded using Hi-C, resulting in a set of high quality, highly contiguous genomes. A subset of the genes involved in mitosis and meiosis, which have been identified though the use of Hidden Markov Models generated from genes involved in these processes in other Hymenoptera, have been catalogued in Mh and the strains of Ma. Meiosis and mitosis genes were broadly conserved in both sexual and asexual Microctonus species. This implies that either the asexual species have retained a subset of the molecular components required for sexual reproduction or that the molecular mechanisms of mitosis and meiosis are different or differently regulated in Microctonus to other insect species in which these mechanisms are more broadly characterised. Bioinformatic analysis of the chemoreceptor compliment in Microctonus has revealed some variation in the number of olfactory receptors, which may be related to host preference. Phylogenetic analysis of olfactory receptors highlights variation, which may be able to explain different host range preferences in the Microctonus. Hi-C clustering implies that Mh has 12 chromosomes, and MaIR has 8. Hence there may be variation in gene regulation between species. Genome alignment of Mh and MaIR implies that there may be large scale genome structural variation. Greater insight into the genetics of these agriculturally important group of parasitic wasps may be beneficial in restoring or maintaining their biocontrol efficacy.

Keywords: argentine stem weevil, asexual, genomics, Microctonus hyperodae

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Authors: M. H. Aissa, Amar Bouzid Dj

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As known, many countries are now planning to build new wind farms with high capacity up to 5MW. Consequently, the size of the foundation increase. These kinds of structures are subject to fatigue damage from environmental loading mainly due to wind and waves as well as from cyclic loading imposed through the rotational frequency (1P) through mass and aerodynamic imbalances and from the blade passing frequency (3P) of the wind turbine which make them behavior dynamically very sensitive. That is why natural frequency must be determined with accuracy from the existing data of the soil and the foundation stiffness sources of uncertainties, to avoid the resonance of the system. This paper presents analytical expressions of stiffness foundation with large diameter in linear soil behavior in different soil stiffness profile. To check the accuracy of the proposed formulas, a mathematical model approach based on non-dimensional parameters is used to calculate the natural frequency taking into account the soil structure interaction (SSI) compared with the p-y method and measured frequency in the North Sea Wind farms.

Keywords: offshore wind turbines, semi analytical FE analysis, p-y curves, piles foundations

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Jaspal Rana

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Oxidative stress has been identified as an underlying cause of ischemia-reperfusion (IR) related cognitive dysfunction and brain damage. Therefore, antioxidant based therapies to treat IR injury are being investigated. Allium cepa L. (onion) is used as culinary medicine and is documented to have marked antioxidant effects. Hence, the present study was designed to evaluate the effect of A. cepa outer scale extract (ACE) against IR induced cognition and biochemical deficit in mice. ACE was prepared by maceration with 70% methanol and fractionated into ethylacetate and aqueous fractions. Bilateral common carotid artery occlusion for 10 min followed by 24 h reperfusion was used to induce cerebral IR injury. Following IR injury, ACE (100 and 200 mg/kg) was administered orally to animals for 7 days once daily. Behavioral outcomes (memory and sensorimotor functions) were evaluated using Morris water maze and neurological severity score. Cerebral infarct size, brain thiobarbituric acid reactive species, reduced glutathione, and superoxide dismutase activity was also determined. Treatment with ACE significantly ameliorated IR mediated deterioration of memory and sensorimotor functions and rise in brain oxidative stress in animals. The results of the present investigation revealed that ACE improved functional outcomes after cerebral IR injury which may be attributed to its antioxidant properties.

Keywords: ischemia-reperfusion, neuroprotective, stroke, antioxidant

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Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Albert Gyamfi

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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Hygreeva Kiran Namburi, Anna Hojna, Edita Lecianova, Fencl Zdenek

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Irradiation Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking [IASCC] is one of the most significant environmental degradation in the internal components made from Austenitic stainless steel. This mechanism is still not fully understood and there are no suitable criteria for prediction of the damage during operation. In this work, core basket material 08Ch18N10T austenitic stainless steel acquired from decommissioned NPP Nord / Greifswald Unit 1, VVER 440-230 type, operated for 15 years and irradiated at 5.2 dpa is studied. This material was tensile tested at two different test temperatures and strain rates in air and at the elevated temperature under the water environment. SEM observations of the fracture surface documented ductile fracture of the samples tested in air, but areas of IASCC tested in water. This paper emphasizes on the microscopic examination results from the mechanically tested samples to determine the underlying IASCC physical damage process. TEM observations of thin foils made from the gauge sections that are closer to the fractured surface of the specimen aimed to find variances in interaction of dislocations and grain boundaries owing to different test conditions.

Keywords: irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking, core basket material, SEM observations of the fracture surface, microscopic examination results

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Authors: Sadaf Kalhori

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Introduction: Doxorubicin (DOX)-induced cardiotoxicity is widely known as the most severe complication of anthracycline-based chemotherapy in patients with cancer. It is unknown whether Deferiprone (DFP), could reduce the severity of DOX-induced cardiotoxicity by inhibiting free radical reactions. Thus, this study was performed to assess the protective effect of Deferiprone on DOX-induced cardiotoxicity in a rat model. Methods: The rats were divided into five groups. Group one was a control group. Group 2 was DOX (2 mg/kg/day, every other day for 12 days), and Group three to five which receiving DOX as in group 2 and DFP 75,100 and 150 mg/kg/day, for 19 days, respectively. DFP was starting 5 days prior to the first DOX injection and two days after the last DOX injection throughout the study. Electrocardiographic and hemodynamic studies, along with histopathological examination, were conducted. In addition, serum sample was taken and total cholesterol, Malone dialdehyde, triglyceride, albumin, AST, ALT, total protein, lactate dehydrogenase, total anti-oxidant and creatine kinase were assessed. Result: Our results showed the normal structure of endocardial, myocardial and pericardial in the control group. Pathologic data such as edema, hyperemia, bleeding, endocarditis, myocarditis and pericarditis, hyaline degeneration, cardiomyocyte necrosis, myofilament degeneration and nuclear chromatin changes were assessed in all groups. In the DOX group, all pathologic data was seen with mean grade of 2±1.25. In the DFP group with a dose of 75 and 100 mg, the mean grade was 1.41± 0.31 and 1±.23, respectively. In DFP group with a dose of 150, the pathologic data showed a milder change in comparison with other groups with e mean grade of 0.45 ±0.19. Most pathologic data in DFP groups showed significant changes in comparison with the DOX group (p < 0.001). Discussion: The results also showed that DFP treatment significantly improved DOX-induced heart damage, structural changes in the myocardium, and ventricular function. Our data confirm that DFP is protective against cardiovascular-related disorders induced by DOX. Clinical studies are needed to be involved to examine these findings in humans.

Keywords: cardiomyopathy, deferiprone, doxorubicin, rat

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

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The Wairau Plains are located in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand, with alluvial deposits of fine-grained silts and sands combined with low-lying topography suggesting the presence of liquefiable deposits over significant portions of the region. Liquefaction manifestations were observed in past earthquakes, including the 1848 Marlborough and 1855 Wairarapa earthquakes, and more recently during the 2013 Lake Grassmere and 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes. Therefore, a good understanding of the deposits that may be susceptible to liquefaction is important for land use planning in the region and to allow developers and asset owners to appropriately address their risk. For this purpose, multiple approaches have been employed to develop regional-scale maps showing the liquefaction vulnerability categories for the region. After applying semi-qualitative criteria linked to geologic age and deposit type, the higher resolution surface mapping of geomorphologic characteristics encompassing the Wairau River and the Opaoa River was used for screening. A detailed basin geologic model developed for groundwater modelling was analysed to provide a higher level of resolution than the surface-geology based classification. This is used to identify the thickness of near-surface gravel deposits, providing an improved understanding of the presence or lack of potentially non-liquefiable crust deposits. This paper describes the methodology adopted for this project and focuses on the influence of geomorphic characteristics and analysis of the detailed geologic basin model on the liquefaction classification of the Lower Wairau Plains.

Keywords: liquefaction, earthquake, cone penetration test, mapping, liquefaction-induced damage

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Byoungjoon Yu, Jihwan Park, Sujung Sin, Junghyun Im, Minsoo Park, Sehwan Park, Seunghee Park

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In this paper, we propose a technology to monitor the soundness of an Internet-based bridge using a non-conductive inspection function. There has been a collapse accident due to the aging of the bridge structure, and it is necessary to prepare for the deterioration of the bridge. The NDT/SHM system for maintenance of existing bridge structures requires a large number of inspection personnel and expensive inspection costs, and access of expensive and large equipment to measurement points is required. Because current drone inspection equipment can only be inspected through camera, it is difficult to inspect inside damage accurately, and the results of an internal damage evaluation are subjective, and it is difficult for non-specialists to recognize the evaluation results. Therefore, it is necessary to develop NDT/SHM techniques for maintenance of new-concept bridge structures that allow for free movement and real-time evaluation of measurement results. This work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MOLIT) as 'Smart City Master and Doctor Course Grant Program' and a grant (14SCIP-B088624-01) from Construction Technology Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Keywords: Structural Health Monitoring, SHM, non-contact sensing, nondestructive testing, NDT, Internet of Things, autonomous self-driving drone

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

Abstract:

Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

Abstract:

Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: I. Tzoka, V. A. Chirayath, A. Brandt, J. Asaadi, Melvin J. Aviles, Stephen Clarke, Stefan Cwik, Michael R. Foley, Cole J. Hamel, Alexey Lyashenko, Michael J. Minot, Mark A. Popecki, Michael E. Stochaj, S. Shin

Abstract:

Micro-channel plate photo-multiplier tubes (MCP-PMTs) have become ubiquitous and are widely considered potential candidates for next generation High Energy Physics experiments due to their picosecond timing resolution, ability to operate in strong magnetic fields, and low noise rates. A key factor that determines the applicability of MCP-PMTs in their lifetime, especially when they are used in high event rate experiments. We have developed a novel method for the investigation of the aging behavior of an MCP-PMT on an accelerated basis. The method involves exposing a localized region of the MCP-PMT to photons at a high repetition rate. This pixel-based method was inspired by earlier results showing that damage to the photocathode of the MCP-PMT occurs primarily at the site of light exposure and that the surrounding region undergoes minimal damage. One advantage of the pixel-based method is that it allows the dynamics of photo-cathode damage to be studied at multiple locations within the same MCP-PMT under different operating conditions. In this work, we use the pixel-based accelerated lifetime test to investigate the aging behavior of a 20 cm x 20 cm Large Area Picosecond Photo Detector (LAPPD) manufactured by INCOM Inc. at multiple locations within the same device under different operating conditions. We compare the aging behavior of the MCP-PMT obtained from the first lifetime test conducted under high gain conditions to the lifetime obtained at a different gain. Through this work, we aim to correlate the lifetime of the MCP-PMT and the rate of ion feedback, which is a function of the gain of each MCP, and which can also vary from point to point across a large area (400 $cm^2$) MCP. The tests were made possible by the uniqueness of the LAPPD design, which allows independent control of the gain of the chevron stacked MCPs. We will further discuss the implications of our results for optimizing the operating conditions of the detector when used in high event rate experiments.

Keywords: electron multipliers (vacuum), LAPPD, lifetime, micro-channel plate photo-multipliers tubes, photoemission, time-of-flight

Procedia PDF Downloads 150