Search results for: random forest analysis

Authors: Bouthiba Amina

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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: Musa Auwal Mamman, S. G. Isa

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This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of GeoGebra software in teaching and learning of linear and quadratic equations amongst senior secondary school students in Fagge Local Government Area, Kano State–Nigeria. Five research items were raised in objectives, research questions and hypotheses respectively. A random sampling method was used in selecting 398 students from a population of 2098 of SS2 students. The experimental group was taught using the GeoGebra software while the control group was taught using the conventional teaching method. The instrument used for the study was the mathematics performance test (MPT) which was administered at the beginning and at the end of the study. The results of the study revealed that students taught with GeoGebra software (experimental group) performed better than students taught with traditional teaching method. The t- test was used to analyze the data obtained from the study.

Keywords: GeoGebra Software, mathematics performance, random sampling, mathematics teaching

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Authors: Mehravar Javid, James Sexton, Farzaneh Amani, Kainaz Patravala

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Self-expansion is a procedure through which people expand the dimensions of their self-concept by incorporating novel content into their sense and experience of identity. Greater self-expansion predicts positive consequences for individuals and romantic relationships. The self-expansion questionnaire (SEQ) originally developed by Lewandowski & Aron (2002) assumes that self-expansion is constituted of key components from the self-expansion model. This study aimed to confirm the factor structure of SEQ and adapt the questions of the scale to the Iranian culture. The sample included 190 participants who responded to 14 items and were selected by simple random sampling. Using Amos-21 and SPSS-21, descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were calculated. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for total SEQ items was 0.92. Results of CFA supported the factor structure SEQ [RMSEA=0.08, GFI=0.88 and CFI=0.92] that showed the model has a good fit and also all the items of SEQ, have a high correlation and have a direct and significant relationship. So, the SEQ demonstrated acceptable psychometric properties in Tehran University students. Looking forward, it would be interesting and exciting to see the implications of the scale as applied to romantic relationships.

Keywords: validity, reliability, confirmatory factor analysis, self-expansion questionnaire

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Authors: Jean Marie Tshimula, Atsushi Togashi

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We develop a data-science approach for providing an interactive visualization and predictive models to find insights into the projects' historical data in order for stakeholders understand some unseen opportunities in the African market that might escape them behind the online project portfolio of the African Development Bank. This machine learning-based web application identifies the market trend of the fastest growing economies across the continent as well skyrocketing sectors which have a significant impact on the future of business in Africa. Owing to this, the approach is tailored to predict where the investment needs are the most required. Moreover, we create a corpus that includes the descriptions of over more than 1,200 projects that approximately cover 14 sectors designed for some of 53 African countries. Then, we sift out this large amount of semi-structured data for extracting tiny details susceptible to contain some directions to follow. In the light of the foregoing, we have applied the combination of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Random Forests at the level of the analysis module of our methodology to highlight the most relevant topics that investors may focus on for investing in Africa.

Keywords: machine learning, topic modeling, natural language processing, big data

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Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

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Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Sonal Budhiraja, Biswabrata Pradhan

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This work considers statistical inference based on progressive Type-I interval censored data with random removal. The scheme of progressive Type-I interval censoring with random removal can be described as follows. Suppose n identical items are placed on a test at time T0 = 0 under k pre-fixed inspection times at pre-specified times T1 < T2 < . . . < Tk, where Tk is the scheduled termination time of the experiment. At inspection time Ti, Ri of the remaining surviving units Si, are randomly removed from the experiment. The removal follows a binomial distribution with parameters Si and pi for i = 1, . . . , k, with pk = 1. In this censoring scheme, the number of failures in different inspection intervals and the number of randomly removed items at pre-specified inspection times are observed. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are established under some regularity conditions. A β-content γ-level tolerance interval (TI) is determined for two parameters Weibull lifetime model using the asymptotic properties of MLEs. The minimum sample size required to achieve the desired β-content γ-level TI is determined. The performance of the MLEs and TI is studied via simulation.

Keywords: asymptotic normality, consistency, regularity conditions, simulation study, tolerance interval

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Authors: Japhet Asanji

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The bases of this research were to explore student’s perception of home background and the acquisition of English Language in Mbonge Municipality by examining how financial status, level of education, marital status and parenting styles of their parents influence English Language Acquisition. Using random sampling techniques, closed-ended questionnaires were administered to 60 students, and the data was analysed using descriptive statistical analysis. The results reaffirm the positive relationship between student’s perception of home background and the acquisition of English language. Contributions, limitations, and direction for further research are also discussed.

Keywords: student, home background, English language acquisition, Cameroon

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Authors: R. Tudugala, B. M. A. I. Balasooriya, W. M. Ediri Arachchi, R. W. M. W. K. Rathnayake, T. D. Premaratna

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Brachytherapy involves placing a source of radiation near the cancer site which gives promising prognosis for cervical cancer treatments. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of random variation of treated volumes in between fractions in the 2D image based fractionated high dose rate brachytherapy for cervical cancer at National Cancer Institute Maharagama, Sri Lanka. Dose plans were analyzed for 150 cervical cancer patients with orthogonal radiographs (2D) based brachytherapy. ICRU treated volumes was modeled by translating the applicators with the help of “Multisource HDR plus software”. The difference of treated volumes with respect to the applicator geometry was analyzed by using SPSS 18 software; to derived patient population based estimates of delivered treated volumes relative to ideally treated volumes. Packing was evaluated according to bladder dose, rectum dose and geometry of the dose distribution by three consultant radiation oncologist. The difference of treated volumes depends on types of the applicators, which was used in fractionated brachytherapy. The means of the “Difference of Treated Volume” (DTV) for “Evenly activated tandem (ET)” length” group was ((X_1)) -0.48 cm3 and ((X_2)) 11.85 cm3 for “Unevenly activated tandem length (UET) group. The range of the DTV for ET group was 35.80 cm3 whereas UET group 104.80 cm3. One sample T test was performed to compare the DTV with “Ideal treatment volume difference (0.00cm3)”. It is evident that P value was 0.732 for ET group and for UET it was 0.00 moreover independent two sample T test was performed to compare ET and UET groups and calculated P value was 0.005. Packing was evaluated under three categories 59.38% used “Convenient Packing Technique”, 33.33% used “Fairly Packing Technique” and 7.29% used “Not Convenient Packing” in their fractionated brachytherapy treatments. Random variation of treated volume in ET group is much lower than UET group and there is a significant difference (p<0.05) in between ET and UET groups which affects the dose distribution of the treatment. Furthermore, it can be concluded nearly 92.71% patient’s packing were used acceptable packing technique at NCIM, Sri Lanka.

Keywords: brachytherapy, cervical cancer, high dose rate, tandem, treated volumes

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Authors: M. Z. Raqab, Debasis Kundu, M. A. Meraou

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In this paper, we have analyzed maximum precipitation data during a particular period of time obtained from different stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network of the USA. One important point to mention is that some stations are shut down on certain days for some reason or the other. Hence, the maximum values are recorded by excluding those readings. It is assumed that the number of stations that operate follows zero-truncated Poisson random variables, and the daily precipitation follows a lognormal random variable. We call this model a compound truncated Poisson lognormal model. The proposed model has three unknown parameters, and it can take a variety of shapes. The maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained quite conveniently using Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators are also derived. The associated confidence intervals also can be obtained from the observed Fisher information matrix. Simulation results have been performed to check the performance of the EM algorithm, and it is observed that the EM algorithm works quite well in this case. When we analyze the precipitation data set using the proposed model, it is observed that the proposed model provides a better fit than some of the existing models.

Keywords: compound Poisson lognormal distribution, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, approximate maximum likelihood estimation, Fisher information, skew distribution

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Authors: M. Mohan, J. P. Roise, G. P. Catts

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Despite living in an era where conservation zones are de-facto the central element in any sustainable wildlife management strategy, we still find ourselves grappling with several pareto-optimal situations regarding resource allocation and area distribution for the same. In this paper, a multi-objective decision making (MODM) model is presented to answer the question of whether or not we can establish mutual relationships between these contradicting objectives. For our study, we considered a Red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) habitat conservation scenario in the coastal plain of North Carolina, USA. Red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW) is a non-migratory territorial bird that excavates cavities in living pine trees for roosting and nesting. The RCW groups nest in an aggregation of cavity trees called ‘cluster’ and for our model we use the number of clusters to be established as a measure of evaluating the size of conservation zone required. The case study is formulated as a linear programming problem and the objective function optimises the Red-cockaded woodpecker clusters, carbon retention rate, biofuel, public safety and Net Present Value (NPV) of the forest. We studied the variation of individual objectives with respect to the amount of area available and plotted a two dimensional dynamic graph after establishing interrelations between the objectives. We further explore the concept of interdependency by integrating the MODM model with GIS, and derive a raster file representing carbon distribution from the existing forest dataset. Model results demonstrate the applicability of interdependency from both linear and spatial perspectives, and suggest that this approach holds immense potential for enhancing environmental investment decision making in future.

Keywords: conservation, interdependency, multi-objective decision making, red-cockaded woodpecker

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Authors: Miguel Cañon, Darwin Mena, Ivan Cabeza

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In this work was compared and evaluated the applicability of statistical methods for the estimation of missing precipitations data in the basin of the river Lenguazaque located in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá, Colombia. The methods used were the method of simple linear regression, distance rate, local averages, mean rates, correlation with nearly stations and multiple regression method. The analysis used to determine the effectiveness of the methods is performed by using three statistical tools, the correlation coefficient (r2), standard error of estimation and the test of agreement of Bland and Altmant. The analysis was performed using real rainfall values removed randomly in each of the seasons and then estimated using the methodologies mentioned to complete the missing data values. So it was determined that the methods with the highest performance and accuracy in the estimation of data according to conditions that were counted are the method of multiple regressions with three nearby stations and a random application scheme supported in the precipitation behavior of related data sets.

Keywords: statistical comparison, precipitation data, river subbasin, Bland and Altmant

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Zhi Hao Chow, Cian Mulligan, Jack Walsh, Antonio Garzon Vico, Dimitar Krastev

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Drug development is resource-intensive, time-consuming, and increasingly expensive with each developmental stage. The success rates of drug development are also relatively low, and the resources committed are wasted with each failed candidate. As such, a reliable method of predicting the success of drug development is in demand. The hypothesis was that some examples of failed drug candidates are pushed through developmental pipelines based on false confidence and may possess common linguistic features identifiable through sentiment analysis. Here, the concept of using text analysis to discover such features in research publications and investor reports as predictors of success was explored. R studios were used to perform text mining and lexicon-based sentiment analysis to identify affective phrases and determine their frequency in each document, then using SPSS to determine the relationship between our defined variables and the accuracy of predicting outcomes. A total of 161 publications were collected and categorised into 4 groups: (i) Cancer treatment, (ii) Neurodegenerative disease treatment, (iii) Vaccines, and (iv) Others (containing all other drugs that do not fit into the 3 categories). Text analysis was then performed on each document using 2 separate datasets (BING and AFINN) in R within the category of drugs to determine the frequency of positive or negative phrases in each document. A relative positivity and negativity value were then calculated by dividing the frequency of phrases with the word count of each document. Regression analysis was then performed with SPSS statistical software on each dataset (values from using BING or AFINN dataset during text analysis) using a random selection of 61 documents to construct a model. The remaining documents were then used to determine the predictive power of the models. Model constructed from BING predicts the outcome of drug performance in clinical trials with an overall percentage of 65.3%. AFINN model had a lower accuracy at predicting outcomes compared to the BING model at 62.5% but was not effective at predicting the failure of drugs in clinical trials. Overall, the study did not show significant efficacy of the model at predicting outcomes of drugs in development. Many improvements may need to be made to later iterations of the model to sufficiently increase the accuracy.

Keywords: data analysis, drug development, sentiment analysis, text-mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Baqir Rezai, Leila Heydarinasab, Rasol Roshan, Mohammad Ghulami

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Introduction: The resilience process is one of the controversial and important subjects for child and youth immigrants throughout the world. Positive adaptation to the environment is a consequence of resilience which can affect the quality of life and physical and mental health among immigrants. Objective: A total of 714 Afghan young immigrants (14 to 18-years-old) who live in Iran for more than three years were entered into the study. A random sampling method was applied to obtain data. The study samples were divided into two groups (N1 =360 and N2=354) for exploratory and confirmation analysis. Exploratory factorial analysis was applied to confirm the construct validity of CYRM-28. Results: The results showed that this scale has useful validity content, and the study samples include three factors of individuals, context, and relational in child and youth resilience measure-28. However, from a total of 28 main items, only 15 items could identify these factors. Discussion: The resilience process among young immigrants is mainly explained by individuals, social and cultural conditions. For instance, young immigrants search the resilience process in conditions that caused their immigration. In this context, some questions about the content of security and personal promotion in society could identify three main factors.

Keywords: CYRM-28, factorial analysis, resilience, Afghan young immigrants

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Authors: Serdal Pamuk, Irem Cay

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Our model is based on the theory of reinforced random walks coupled with Michealis-Menten mechanisms which view endothelial cell receptors as the catalysts for transforming both tumor and macrophage derived tumor angiogenesis factor (TAF) into proteolytic enzyme which in turn degrade the basal lamina. The model consists of two main parts. First part has seven differential equations (DE’s) in one space dimension over the capillary, whereas the second part has the same number of DE’s in two space dimensions in the extra cellular matrix (ECM). We connect these two parts via some boundary conditions to move the cells into the ECM in order to initiate capillary formation. But, when does this movement begin? To address this question we estimate the thresholds that activate the transport equations in the capillary. We do this by using steady-state analysis of TAF equation under some assumptions. Once these equations are activated endothelial, pericyte and macrophage cells begin to move into the ECM for the initiation of angiogenesis. We do believe that our results play an important role for the mechanisms of cell migration which are crucial for tumor angiogenesis. Furthermore, we estimate the long time tendency of these three cells, and find that they tend to the transition probability functions as time evolves. We provide our numerical solutions which are in good agreement with our theoretical results.

Keywords: angiogenesis, capillary formation, mathematical analysis, steady-state, transition probability function

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Authors: Aamna Lawrence, Ashutosh Mishra

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Tremors occur in 60% of the patients who have Multiple Sclerosis (MS), the most common demyelinating disease that affects the central and peripheral nervous system, and are the primary cause of disability in young adults. While pharmacological agents provide minimal benefits, surgical interventions like Deep Brain Stimulation and Thalamotomy are riddled with dangerous complications which make non-invasive electrical stimulation an appealing treatment of choice for dealing with tremors. Hence, we hypothesized that if the non-invasive electrical stimulation parameters (mainly frequency) can be computed by mathematically modeling the nerve fibre to take into consideration the minutest details of the axon morphologies, tremors due to demyelination can be optimally alleviated. In this computational study, we have modeled the random demyelination pattern in a nerve fibre that typically manifests in MS using the High-Density Hodgkin-Huxley model with suitable modifications to account for the myelin. The internode of the nerve fibre in our model could have up to ten demyelinated regions each having random length and myelin thickness. The arrival time of action potentials traveling the demyelinated and the normally myelinated nerve fibre between two fixed points in space was noted, and its relationship with the nerve fibre radius ranging from 5µm to 12µm was analyzed. It was interesting to note that there were no overlaps between the arrival time for action potentials traversing the demyelinated and normally myelinated nerve fibres even when a single internode of the nerve fibre was demyelinated. The study gave us an opportunity to design DC pulses whose frequency of application would be a function of the random demyelination pattern to block only the delayed tremor-causing action potentials. The DC pulses could be delivered to the peripheral nervous system non-invasively by an electrode bracelet that would suppress any shakiness beyond it thus paving the way for wearable neuro-rehabilitative technologies.

Keywords: demyelination, Hodgkin-Huxley model, non-invasive electrical stimulation, tremor

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Authors: Maffo Maffo Nicole Liliane, Mounmeni Kpoumie Hubert, Mbaire Matindje Karl Marx, Zapfack Louis

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Sacred forests play a valuable role in conserving local biodiversity and provide numerous ecosystem services in Cameroon. The study was carried out in the sacred forests of Bandrefam and Batoufam (western Cameroon). The aim was to estimate the diversity of woody species, carbon stocks and degradation factors in these sacred forests. The floristic inventory was carried out in plots measuring 25m × 25m for trees with diameters greater than 10 cm and 5m × 5m for trees with diameters less than 10 cm. Carbon stocks were estimated using the non-destructive method and the allometric equations. Data on degradation factors were collected using semi-structured surveys in the Bandrefam and Batoufam neighborhoods. The floristic inventory identified 65 species divided into 57 genera and 30 families in the Bandrefam Sacred Forest and 45 species divided into 42 genera and 27 families in the Batoufam Sacres Forest. The families common to both sacred forests are as follows: Phyllanthaceae, Fabaceae, Moraceae, Lamiaceae, Malvaceae, Rubiaceae, Meliaceae, Anacardiaceae, and Sapindaceae. Three genera are present in both sites. These are: Albizia, Macaranga, Trichillia. In addition, there are 27 species in common between the two sites. The total carbon stock is 469.26 tC/ha at Batoufam and 291.41 tC/ha at Bandrefam. The economic value varies between 15 823 877.05 fcfa at Batoufam and 9 825 530.528 fcfa at Bandrefam. The study shows that despite the sacred nature of these forests, they are subject to degradation factors such as bushfires (35.42 %), the creation of plantations (23.96 %), illegal timber exploitation (21.88 %), young people's lack of interest in the notion of conservation (9.38 %), climate change (7.29 %) and growing urbanization (2.08 %). These factors threaten biodiversity and reduce carbon storage in these forests.

Keywords: sacred forests, degradation factors, carbon stocks, semi-structured surveys

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Authors: Josip Arneric, Antonio Sostaric

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Crikvenica is one of the favourite tourist destinations at the Adriatic Sea in Croatia which attracts guests with its natural beauties and is one of the top destinations with the highest number of overnights stays. The main purpose of this research is to determine which elements of tourist offer should be improved to achieve sustainable development of the town of Crikvenica. Namely, the survey results from a random sample have shown that the most common reason of the visits is relaxation and vacation, and that more attention should be given to the following categories: restaurants and the working hours of stores and banks. We have also examined whether or not there is a correlation between an average daily expenditure and the overnight stay. The paper ends with the conclusion and the recommendations on how to improve the tourist offer of Crikvenica in order to increase guest satisfaction and to keep its reputation at a high level.

Keywords: tourism development, survey, Crikvenica, management sciences

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Authors: Mahdi Rahimi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedian, Mohammad Reza Aref

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In this paper, a cellular communication scenario with a transmitter and an authorized user is considered to analyze its secrecy in the face of eavesdroppers and the interferences propagated unintentionally through the communication network. It is also assumed that some D2D pairs and eavesdroppers are randomly located in the cell. Assuming hardware impairment, perfect connection probability is analytically calculated, and upper bound is provided for the secrecy outage probability. In addition, a method based on random activation of D2Ds is proposed to improve network security. Finally, the analytical results are verified by simulations.

Keywords: physical layer security, stochastic geometry, device-to-device, hardware impairment

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Authors: Younmin Shin, Jin Kyu Kim, Mirim Jin, Jeong June Choi

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Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) is a peace region located between South and North Korea border to avoid accidental armed conflict. Because human accessing to the area was forced to be prohibited for more than 60 years, DMZ is one of the cleanest land keeping wild lives as nature itself in South Korea. In this study, we evaluated the biological efficacies of plants (SS, PC, and AR) inhabiting in DMZ for the development of functional cosmetics. First, we tested the cytotoxicity of plant extracts in keratinocyte and melanocyte, which are the major cell components of skin. By 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay with the cell lines, we determined the safety concentrations of the extracts for the efficacy tests. Next, we assessed the anti-wrinkle cosmetic function of SS by demonstrating that SS treatment decreased the expression of Matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) in UV-irradiated keratinocytes via real-time PCR. The suppressive effect of SS was greatly potentiated by combination with other DMZ-inhabiting plants, PC and AR. The expression of tyrosinase, which is one the main enzyme that producing melanin in melanocyte, was also down-regulated by the DMZ-inhabiting SS extract. Wound healing activity was also investigated by in vitro test with HaCat cell line, a human fibroblast cell line. All the natural materials extracted form DMZ habiting plants accelerated the recovery of the cells. These results suggested that DMZ is a treasure island of functional plants and DMZ-inhabiting natural products are warranted to develop functional cosmetic materials. This study was carried out with the support of R&D Program for Forest Science Technology (Project No. 2017027A00-1819-BA01) provided by Korea Forest Service (Korea Forestry Promotion Institute).

Keywords: anti-wrinkle, Demilitarized Zone, functional cosmetics, whitening

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Authors: Ahmed Kamil Hasan Al-Ali, Bouchra Senadji, Ganesh Naik

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We propose a system to real environmental noise and channel mismatch for forensic speaker verification systems. This method is based on suppressing various types of real environmental noise by using independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm. The enhanced speech signal is applied to mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) or MFCC feature warping to extract the essential characteristics of the speech signal. Channel effects are reduced using an intermediate vector (i-vector) and probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach for classification. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by using an Australian forensic voice comparison database, combined with car, street and home noises from QUT-NOISE at a signal to noise ratio (SNR) ranging from -10 dB to 10 dB. Experimental results indicate that the MFCC feature warping-ICA achieves a reduction in equal error rate about (48.22%, 44.66%, and 50.07%) over using MFCC feature warping when the test speech signals are corrupted with random sessions of street, car, and home noises at -10 dB SNR.

Keywords: noisy forensic speaker verification, ICA algorithm, MFCC, MFCC feature warping

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Authors: Carlos Vera, Tetyana Baydyk, Ernst Kussul, Graciela Velasco, Miguel Aparicio

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This article describes the Random Subspace Neural Classifier (RSC) for the recognition of meteors in the night sky. We used images of meteors entering the atmosphere at night between 8:00 p.m.-5: 00 a.m. The objective of this project is to classify meteor and star images (with stars as the image background). The monitoring of the sky and the classification of meteors are made for future applications by scientists. The image database was collected from different websites. We worked with RGB-type images with dimensions of 220x220 pixels stored in the BitMap Protocol (BMP) format. Subsequent window scanning and processing were carried out for each image. The scan window where the characteristics were extracted had the size of 20x20 pixels with a scanning step size of 10 pixels. Brightness, contrast and contour orientation histograms were used as inputs for the RSC. The RSC worked with two classes and classified into: 1) with meteors and 2) without meteors. Different tests were carried out by varying the number of training cycles and the number of images for training and recognition. The percentage error for the neural classifier was calculated. The results show a good RSC classifier response with 89% correct recognition. The results of these experiments are presented and discussed.

Keywords: contour orientation histogram, meteors, night sky, RSC neural classifier, stars

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Carolina Gouveia, José Vieira, Pedro Pinho

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The cardiopulmonary signal monitoring, without the usage of contact electrodes or any type of in-body sensors, has several applications such as sleeping monitoring and continuous monitoring of vital signals in bedridden patients. This system has also applications in the vehicular environment to monitor the driver, in order to avoid any possible accident in case of cardiac failure. Thus, the bio-radar system proposed in this paper, can measure vital signals accurately by using the Doppler effect principle that relates the received signal properties with the distance change between the radar antennas and the person’s chest-wall. Once the bio-radar aim is to monitor subjects in real-time and during long periods of time, it is impossible to guarantee the patient immobilization, hence their random motion will interfere in the acquired signals. In this paper, a mathematical model of the bio-radar is presented, as well as its simulation in MATLAB. The used algorithm for breath rate extraction is explained and a method for DC offsets removal based in a motion detection system is proposed. Furthermore, experimental tests were conducted with a view to prove that the unavoidable random motion can be used to estimate the DC offsets accurately and thus remove them successfully.

Keywords: bio-signals, DC component, Doppler effect, ellipse fitting, radar, SDR

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Authors: Rana Parween, Rob Marchant

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With the continued loss of global biodiversity despite the application of modern conservation techniques, it has become crucial to investigate non-conventional methods. Accelerated destruction of ecosystems due to altered land use, climate change, cultural and social change, necessitates the exploration of society-biodiversity attitudes and links. While the loss of species and their extinction is a well-known and well-documented process that attracts much-needed attention from researchers, academics, government and non-governmental organizations, the loss of traditional ecological knowledge and practices is more insidious and goes unnoticed. The growing availability of 'indirect experiences' such as the internet and media are leading to a disaffection towards nature and the 'Extinction of Experience'. Exacerbated by the lack of documentation of traditional practices and skills, there is the possibility for the 'extinction' of traditional practices and skills before they are fully recognized and captured. India, as a mega-biodiverse country, is also known for its historical conservation strategies entwined in traditional beliefs. Indigenous communities hold skillsets, knowledge, and traditions that have accumulated over multiple generations and may play an important role in conserving biodiversity today. This study explores the differences in knowledge and attitudes towards conserving biodiversity, of three different stakeholder groups living around Jim Corbett National Park, based on their age, traditions, and association with the protected area. A triangulation designed multi-strategy investigation collected qualitative and quantitative data through a questionnaire survey of village elders, the general public, and forest officers. Following an inductive approach to analyzing qualitative data, the thematic content analysis was followed. All coding and analysis were completed using NVivo 11. Although the village elders and some general public had vast amounts of traditional knowledge, most of it was related to animal husbandry and the medicinal value of plants. Village elders were unfamiliar with the concept of the term ‘biodiversity’ albeit their way of life and attitudes ensured that they care for the ecosystem without having the scientific basis underpinning biodiversity conservation. Inherently, village elders were keen to conserve nature; the superimposition of governmental policies without any tangible benefit or consultation was seen as detrimental. Alienating villagers and consequently the village elders who are the reservoirs of traditional knowledge would not only be damaging to the social network of the area but would also disdain years of tried and tested techniques held by the elders. Forest officers advocated for biodiversity and conservation education for women and children. Women, across all groups, when questioned about nature conservation, showed more interest in learning and participation. Biodiversity not only has an ethical and cultural value, but also plays a role in ecosystem function and, thus, provides ecosystem services and supports livelihoods. Therefore, underpinning and using traditional knowledge and incorporating them into programs of biodiversity conservation should be explored with a sense of urgency.

Keywords: biological diversity, mega-biodiverse countries, traditional ecological knowledge, society-biodiversity links

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Authors: Stephen Orimoloye, Jose Horrillo-Caraballo, Harshinie Karunarathna, Dominic E. Reeve

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Prediction of wave overtopping is an essential component of coastal seawall designing and management. Not only that excessive overtopping is reported for impermeable seawalls under bimodal waves, but overtopping is also showing a high sensitivity to the peakedness of the random wave propagation patterns. In the present study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the effects of peakedness of bimodal wave patterns of the overtopping of sloping seawalls. An energy-conserved bimodal spectrum with four different spectra peak periods and swell percentages was applied to estimate wave overtopping in both numerical and experimental flumes. Results of incident surface elevations and bimodal spectra were accurately captured across the flume domain using sets of well-positioned resistant-type wave gauges. Peakedness characteristics of the wave patterns were extracted to derive a relationship between the non-dimensional overtopping and the peakedness across the wave groups in the wave series. The full paper will briefly describe the development of the spectrum and present a comprehensive results analysis leading to the derivation of the relationship between dimensionless overtopping and peakedness of bimodal waves.

Keywords: wave overtopping, peakedness, bimodal waves, swell percentages

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Ana M. Korol, Bibiana Riquelme, Osvaldo A. Rosso

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Since erythrocyte deformability analysis is mostly qualitative, the development of quantitative nonlinear methods is crucial for restricting subjectivity in the study of cell behaviour. An electro-optic mechanic system called erythrodeformeter has been developed and constructed in our laboratory in order to evaluate the erythrocytes' viscoelasticity. A numerical method formulated on the basis of fractal approximation for ordinary (OBM) and fractionary Brownian motion (FBM), as well as wavelet transform analysis, are proposed to distinguish chaos from noise based on the assumption that diffractometric data involves both deterministic and stochastic components, so it could be modelled as a system of bounded correlated random walk. Here we report studies on 25 donors: 4 alpha thalassaemic patients, 11 beta thalassaemic patients, and 10 healthy controls non-alcoholic and non-smoker individuals. The Correlation Coefficient, a nonlinear parameter, showed evidence of the changes in the erythrocyte deformability; the Wavelet Entropy could quantify those differences which are detected by the light diffraction patterns. Such quantifiers allow a good deal of promise and the possibility of a better understanding of the rheological erythrocytes aspects and also could help in clinical diagnosis.

Keywords: red blood cells, deformability, nonlinear dynamics, chaos theory, wavelet trannsform

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Diogen Babuc

Abstract:

The question that is a motivation of writing is how many devote themselves to discovering something in the world of science where much is discerned and revealed, but at the same time, much is unknown. Methods: The insightful elements of this algorithm are the ciphering and deciphering algorithms of Playfair, Caesar, and Vigenère. Only a few of their main properties are taken and modified, with the aim of forming a specific functionality of the algorithm called Latin Djokovic. Specifically, a string is entered as input data. A key k is given, with a random value between the values a and b = a+3. The obtained value is stored in a variable with the aim of being constant during the run of the algorithm. In correlation to the given key, the string is divided into several groups of substrings, and each substring has a length of k characters. The next step involves encoding each substring from the list of existing substrings. Encoding is performed using the basis of Caesar algorithm, i.e., shifting with k characters. However, that k is incremented by 1 when moving to the next substring in that list. When the value of k becomes greater than b+1, it’ll return to its initial value. The algorithm is executed, following the same procedure, until the last substring in the list is traversed. Results: Using this polyalphabetic method, ciphering and deciphering of strings are achieved. The algorithm also works for a 100-character string. The x character isn’t used when the number of characters in a substring is incompatible with the expected length. The algorithm is simple to implement, but it’s questionable if it works better than the other methods from the point of view of execution time and storage space.

Keywords: ciphering, deciphering, authentic, algorithm, polyalphabetic cipher, random key, methods comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

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Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure Machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Dessie Tegegne Tibebu, Kirsi Mononen, Ari Pappinen

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In areas with forest management, agricultural, and industrial activity, sediments and biomass are accumulated in lakes through drainage system, which might be a cause for biodiversity loss and health problems. One possible solution can be utilization of lake bottom biomass and sediments for biogas production. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potentials of lake bottom materials for production of biogas by anaerobic digestion and to study the effect of pretreatment methods for feed materials on biogas yield. In order to study the potentials of biogas production lake bottom materials were collected from two sites, Likokanta and Kutunjärvi lake. Lake bottom materials were mixed with straw-horse manure to produce biogas in a laboratory scale reactor. The results indicated that highest yields of biogas values were observed when feeds were composed of 50% lake bottom materials with 50% straw horse manure mixture-while with above 50% lake bottom materials in the feed biogas production decreased. CH4 content from Likokanta lake materials with straw-horse manure and Kutunjärvi lake materials with straw-horse manure were similar values when feed consisted of 50% lake bottom materials with 50% straw horse manure mixtures. However, feeds with lake bottom materials above 50%, the CH4 concentration started to decrease, impairing gas process. Pretreatment applied on Kutunjärvi lake materials showed a slight negative effect on the biogas production and lowest CH4 concentration throughout the experiment. The average CH4 production (ml g-1 VS) from pretreated Kutunjärvi lake materials with straw horse manure (208.9 ml g-1 VS) and untreated Kutunjärvi lake materials with straw horse manure (182.2 ml g-1 VS) were markedly higher than from Likokanta lake materials with straw horse manure (157.8 ml g-1 VS). According to the experimental results, utilization of 100% lake bottom materials for biogas production is likely to be impaired negatively. In the future, further analyses to improve the biogas yields, assessment of costs and benefits is needed before utilizing lake bottom materials for the production of biogas.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas, lake bottom materials, sediments, pretreatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Yogita Tulsian, A. Yadav

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Background: India reports 3,600 cholera cases annually. In August 2013, a cholera outbreak was reported in Jalgaon district, Maharashtra state. We sought to describe the epidemiological characteristics,identify risk factors, and recommend control measures. Methods: We collected existing stool and water testing laboratory results, and conducted a1: 1 matched case-control study. A cholera case was defined as a resident of Vishnapur or Malapur villagewith onset of acute watery diarrhea on/ after 1-July-2013. Controls were matched by age, gender and village and had not experienced any diarrhea for 3 months. We collected socio-demographic characteristics, clinical presentation, and food/travel/water exposure history and conducted conditional logistic regression. Results: Of 50 people who met the cholera case definition, 40 (80%) were from Vishnapur village and 30 (60%) were female. The median age was 8.5 years (range; 0.3-75). Twenty (45%) cases were hospitalized, twelve (60%) with severe dehydration. Three of five stool samples revealed Vibrio cholerae 01 El Tor, Ogawa and samples from 7 of 14 Vishnapur water sources contained fecal coliforms. Cases from Vishnapur were significantly more likely to drink from identified contaminated water sources (matched odds ratio (MOR) 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1-13), or from a river/canal (MOR=18.4;95%CI: 2-504). Cases from Malapur were more likely to drink from a river/canal (MOR=6.2; 95%CI: 0.6-196). Cases from both villages were significantly more likely to visit the forest (MOR 6.3; 95%CI: 2-30) or another village (MOR 3.5; 95%CI; 0.9-17). Conclusions: This outbreak was caused by Vibrio cholerae, likely through contamination of water in Vishnapur village and/or through drinking river/canal water. We recommended safe drinking water for forest visitors and all residents of these villages and use of regular water testing.

Keywords: cholera, case control study, contaminated water, river

Procedia PDF Downloads 352