Search results for: warming trend

Authors: Omar A. Shaneb, Adell S. Amer

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Reduction of CO2 emissions has become a priority for several countries due to increasing concerns about global warming and climate change, especially in the developed countries. Residential sector is considered one of the most important sectors for considerable reduction of CO2 emissions since it represents a significant amount of the total consumed energy in those countries. A significant CO2 reduction cannot be achieved unless some initiatives have been adopted in the policy of these countries. Introducing micro combined heat and power (µCHP) systems into residential energy systems is one of these initiatives, since such a technology offers several advantages. Moreover, µCHP technology has the opportunity to be operated not only by natural gas but it could also be operated by renewable fuels. However, this technology can be operated by different operation strategies. Each strategy has some advantages and disadvantages. This paper provides a review of different operation strategies of such a technology used for residential energy systems, especially for single dwellings. The review summarizes key points that outline the trend of previous research carried out in this field.

Keywords: energy management, µCHP systems, residential energy systems, sustainable houses, operation strategy.

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Authors: Fengmei Yao, Pengcheng Qin, Jiahua Zhang, Min Liu

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Global warming is expected to reduce the risk of low temperature stress in rice grown in temperate regions, but this impact has not been well verified by empirical studies directly on chilling injury in rice. In this study, a case study in Northeast China was presented to investigate whether the frequencies of chilling injury declined as a result of climate change, in comprehensive consideration of the potential effects from autonomous adaptation of rice production in response to climate change, such as shifts in cultivation timing and rice cultivars. It was found that frequency of total chilling injury (either delayed-growth type or sterile-type in a year) decreased but only to a limit extent in the context of climate change, mainly owing to a pronounced decrease in frequency of the delayed-growth chilling injury, while there was no overwhelming decreasing tendency for frequency of the sterile-type chilling injury, rather, it even increased considerably for some regions. If changes in cultivars had not occurred, risks of chilling injury of both types would have been much lower, specifically for the sterile-type chilling injury for avoiding deterioration in chilling sensitivity of rice cultivars. In addition, earlier planting helped lower the risk of chilling injury but still can not overweight the effects of introduction of new cultivars. It was concluded that risks of chilling injury in rice would not necessarily decrease as a result of climate change, considering the accompanying adaptation process may increase the chilling sensitivity of rice production system in a warmer climate conditions, and thus precautions should still be taken.

Keywords: chilling injury, rice, CERES-rice model, climate warming, North east China

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Authors: Abhinav Sirvaiya, Karan Gupta, Pankaj Garg

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The global warming due to the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is the most prominent issue of environment that the world is facing today. To solve this problem at global level, sequestration of CO2 in deep and unmineable coal seams has come out as one of the attractive alternatives to reduce concentration in atmosphere. This sequestration technology is not only going to help in storage of CO2 beneath the sub-surface but is also playing a major role in enhancing the coal bed methane recovery (ECBM) by displacing the adsorbed methane. This paper provides the answers for the need of CO2 injection in coal seams and how recovery is enhanced. We have discussed the recent development in enhancing the coal bed methane recovery and the economic scenario of the same. The effect of injection on the coal reservoir has also been discussed. Coal is a good absorber of CO2. That is why the sequestration of CO2 is emerged out to be a great approach, not only for storage purpose but also for enhancing coal bed methane recovery.

Keywords: global warming, carbon dioxide (CO2), CO2 sequestration, enhance coal bed methane (ECBM)

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Authors: Sikander Ali

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English is being used as linguafranca in most of the formal and informal situations of Pakistan. This extensive use has been rapidly replacing the identity of national language of Pakistani.e. Urdu. The nature of syntactic representation has always been the matter of confusion among linguists. Being unaware of the correct plural forms the non-natives commit mistakes while making plurals. But the situation is reverse when non-natives of English irrespective of knowing the right plurals make wrong plurals usually talking in their native language. The observation method was opted to check this hypothesis. Along with it, a checklist has been made in which these certain occurrences have been mentioned, where this flouting of the norms is a normal routine. The result confirms that Pakistani commit this mistake, i.e. ‘tablian’ the plural of tables, ‘filain’ the plural of files, though this is done by them on unconscious level. This emerging trend of unconscious mistake is leading Pakistani bilinguals towards a diglossic situation where they are coining portmanteau.

Keywords: bilinguals, emerging trend, portmanteau, trends

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Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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Authors: Rouzbeh Ramezani, Renzo Di Felice

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Nowadays, removal of CO₂ as one of the major contributors to global warming using alternative solvents with high CO₂ absorption efficiency, is an important industrial operation. In this study, three amines, including 2-methylpiperazine, potassium sarcosinate and potassium lysinate as potential additives, were added to the potassium carbonate solution as a base solvent for CO₂ capture. In order to study the absorption performance of CO₂ in terms of loading capacity of CO₂ and absorption rate, the absorption experiments in a blend of additives with potassium carbonate were carried out using the vapor-liquid equilibrium apparatus at a temperature of 313.15 K, CO₂ partial pressures ranging from 0 to 50 kPa and at mole fractions 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4. Furthermore, the performance of CO₂ absorption in these blend solutions was compared with pure monoethanolamine and with pure potassium carbonate. Finally, a correlation with good accuracy was developed using the nonlinear regression analysis in order to predict CO₂ loading capacity.

Keywords: absorption rate, carbon dioxide, CO2 capture, global warming, loading capacity

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Authors: Swatantra

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Hinglish, a blended version of Hindi and English, emerged due to the lack of the competence and command of the speakers over the foreign language, i., e., English. But, amazingly, the trend has gained wide acceptance. In India, this acceptance has gone up to the extent that popular news anchors at the prime time shows are frequently using it. At the moment, instead of being considered a flaw of their presentation Hinglish is emerging as a trendy genre. Its pervasive usage and extensive acceptance is motivating youngsters to opt for the similar kind of patterns. The current study is an endeavour to assess the impact of this trend on the new language learners. With the help of semi-structured interviews, the researcher has tried to gauge the level of comfort and desire to be at par with the other fluent English speakers. The results clearly depict a substantiated boost in the confidence level of learners because they are able to use the vocabulary and sentence patterns of their own choice and convenience. The prevalence and acceptance of the trend in the main stream media have really served as a catalyst and the desire to be at par with the other fluent speakers is also fading away. The users of Hinglish find this trend to be closer to their heart as in the earlier times in the absence of exact translation they had to compromise with the meaning or spirit of the word/phrase / sentence. But now enhanced flexibility is leaving them more comfortable and confident.

Keywords: Hinglish, language learners, linguistic trends, media

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

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In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Sanjay Dhiraaj, Puneet Goyal, Aditya Kapoor, Gaurav Misra

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In electrocardiography, an ECG artefact is used to indicate something that is not heart-made. Although technological advancements have produced monitors with the potential of providing accurate information and reliable heart rate alarms, despite this, interference of the displayed electrocardiogram still occurs. These interferences can be from the various electrical gadgets present in the operating room or electrical signals from other parts of the body. Artefacts may also occur due to poor electrode contact with the body or due to machine malfunction. Knowing these artefacts is of utmost importance so as to avoid unnecessary and unwarranted diagnostic as well as interventional procedures. We report a case of ECG artefacts occurring due to patient warming blanket and its consequences. A 20-year-old male with a preoperative diagnosis of exstrophy epispadias complex was posted for surgery under epidural and general anaesthesia. Just after endotracheal intubation, we observed nonspecific ECG changes on the monitor. At a first glance, the monitor strip revealed broad QRs complexes suggesting a ventricular bigeminal rhythm. Closer analysis revealed these to be artefacts because although the complexes were looking broad on the first glance there was clear presence of normal sinus complexes which were immediately followed by 'broad complexes' or artefacts produced by some device or connection. These broad complexes were labeled as artefacts as they were originating in the absolute refractory period of the previous normal sinus beat. It would be physiologically impossible for the myocardium to depolarize so rapidly as to produce a second QRS complex. A search for the possible reason for the artefacts was made and after deepening the plane of anaesthesia, ruling out any possible electrolyte abnormalities, checking of ECG leads and its connections, changing monitors, checking all other monitoring connections, checking for proper grounding of anaesthesia machine and OT table, we found that after switching off the patient’s warming apparatus the rhythm returned to a normal sinus one and the 'broad complexes' or artefacts disappeared. As misdiagnosis of ECG artefacts may subject patients to unnecessary diagnostic and therapeutic interventions so a thorough knowledge of the patient and monitors allow for a quick interpretation and resolution of the problem.

Keywords: ECG artefacts, patient warming blanket, peri-operative arrhythmias, mobile messaging services

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Authors: Hedaya Ali Al Ameri, Alya A. Arabi

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Measuring the level of carbon storage in mangroves’ biomass has a potential impact in the climate change of UAE. Carbon dioxide is one of greenhouse gases. It is considered to be a main reason for global warming. Deforestation is a key source of the increase in carbon dioxide whereas forests such as mangroves assist in removing carbon dioxide from atmosphere by storing them in its biomass and soil. By using Kauffman and Donato methodology, above- and below-ground biomass and carbon stored in UAE’s natural mangroves were quantified. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) released to the atmosphere was then estimated in case of mangroves deforestation in the UAE. The results show that the mean total biomass of mangroves in the UAE ranged from 15.75 Mg/ha to 3098.69 Mg/ha. The estimated CO2eq released upon deforestation in the UAE was found to have a minimal effect on the temperature increase and thus global warming.

Keywords: carbon stored in biomass, mangrove deforestation, temperature change, United Arab Emirate

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Authors: Anna M. N. Shifotoka, Richard Walker, Katie Haighton, Richard McNally

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An analysis of trends in Case Notification Rates (CNR) can be used to monitor the impact of Tuberculosis (TB) control interventions over time in order to inform the implementation of current and future TB interventions. A retrospective analysis of trends in TB CNR for two urban regions in Namibia, namely Khomas and Erongo regions, was conducted. TB case notification data were obtained from annual TB reports of the national TB programme, Ministry of Health and Social Services, covering the period from 1997 to 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends in CNR for different types of TB groups. A trend was considered to be statistically significant when a p-value was less than 0.05. During the period under review, the crude CNR for all forms of TB declined from 808 to 400 per 100 000 population in Khomas, and from 1051 to 611 per 100 000 population in Erongo. In both regions, significant change points in trends were observed for all types of TB groups examined. In Khomas region, the trend for new smear positive pulmonary TB increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3% to 8.2%) during the period 1997 to 2004, and thereafter declined significantly by -6.2% (95%CI: -7.7% to -4.3%) per year until 2015. Similarly, the trend for smear negative pulmonary TB increased significantly by 23.7% (95%CI: 9.7 to 39.5) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly by an annual change of -26.4% (95%CI: -33.1% to -19.8%). The trend for all forms of TB CNR in Khomas region increased significantly by 8.1% (95%CI: 3.7 to 12.7) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly a rate of -8.7% (95%CI: -10.6 to -6.8). In Erongo region, the trend for smear positive pulmonary TB increased at a rate of 1.2% (95%CI: -1.2% to 3.6%) annually during the earlier years (1997 to 2008), and thereafter declined significantly by -9.3% (95%CI: -13.3% to -5.0%) per year from 2008 to 2015. Also in Erongo, the trend for all forms of TB CNR increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.0% (95%CI: 1.4% to 6.6%) during the years between 1997 to 2006 and thereafter declined significantly by -10.4% (95%CI: -12.7% to -8.0%) per year during 2006 to 2015. The trend for extra-pulmonary TB CNR declined but did not reach statistical significance in both regions. In conclusion, CNRs declined for all types of TB examined in both regions. Further research is needed to study trends for other TB dimensions such as treatment outcomes and notification of drug resistant TB cases.

Keywords: epidemiology, Namibia, temporal trends, tuberculosis

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Authors: Mahmut Genc, Seda Genc

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Wine is the most popular alcoholic drink in the World with 274.4 million of hectoliter annual production in the year of 2015. The wine industry is very important for some regions as well as creating significant value in their economies. This industry is very sensitive to the global warming since viticulture highly depends on climate and geographical region. Sustainability concept is a crucial issue for the wine industry and sustainability performances of wine production processes should be determined. Although wine production industry is an energy intensive sector as a whole, the most energy intensive products are widely used both in the viti and vinicultural process. In this study, gate-to-gate LCA approach in energy resource utilization and global warming potential impacts for white wine production line were attempted and carbon footprint and exergy destruction footprint were calculated, accordingly. As a result, carbon footprint and exergy destruction footprint values were calculated to be 1.75 kg CO2eq and 365.3kW, respectively.

Keywords: carbon footprint, exergy analysis, exergy destruction footprint, white wine

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Authors: M. T. Bouziane, A. Benkhaled, B. Achour

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In this study, data from 30 catchments in the Chott Melghir basin in the semiarid region of southern East Algeria were analyzed to investigate changes in annual discharge, annual precipitation over the 1965-2005 period. These data were analyzed with the aid of Kendall test trend and regression analysis. The results indicate that the major variations in all catchments discharge in Chott Melghir correspond well to the precipitation. Changes in total annual discharge of Chott Melghir were lower than changes in annual precipitation. Annual precipitation decreased by 66 percent and annual discharge decreased by 4 percent. No significant trend is detected for annual discharge and precipitation at major catchments up to 95% confidence level. The decreasing trend in Chott Melghir discharge is mainly attributed to the decrease of precipitation.

Keywords: trends, climate change, precipitation, discharge, Kendall test, regression analysis, Chott Melghir catchments

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Authors: Shyh-Ming Chern, Wei-Ling Lin

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Lignin is a major constituent of woody biomass, and exists abundantly in nature. It is the major byproducts from the paper industry and bioethanol production processes. The byproducts are mainly used for low-valued applications. Instead, lignin can be converted into higher-valued gaseous fuel, thereby helping to curtail the ever-growing price of oil and to slow down the trend of global warming. Although biochemical treatment is capable of converting cellulose into liquid ethanol fuel, it cannot be applied to the conversion of lignin. Alternatively, it is possible to convert lignin into gaseous fuel thermochemically. In the present work, trans-4-hydroxycinnamic acid, a model compound for lignin, which closely resembles the basic building blocks of lignin, is gasified in an autoclave with ethanol at elevated temperatures and pressures, that are above the critical point of ethanol. Ethanol, instead of water, is chosen, because ethanol dissolves trans-4-hydroxycinnamic acid easily and helps to convert it into lighter gaseous species relatively well. The major operating parameters for the gasification reaction include temperature (673-873 K), reaction pressure (5-25 MPa) and feed concentration (0.05-0.3 M). Generally, more than 80% of the reactant, including trans-4-hydroxycinnamic acid and ethanol, were converted into gaseous products at an operating condition of 873 K and 5 MPa.

Keywords: ethanol, gasification, lignin, supercritical

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Ethan Petersen

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In this paper, we analyze the volatility of Apple’s stock beginning January 3, 2005 up to October 9, 2014, then focus on a range from 30 days prior to each product announcement until 30 days after. Product announcements are filtered; announcements whose 60 day range is devoid of other events are separated. This filtration is chosen to isolate, and study, a potential cross-effect. Concerning Apple keynotes, there are two significant dates: the day the invitations to the event are received and the day of the event itself. As such, the statistical analysis is conducted for both invite-centered and event-centered time frames. A comparison to the VIX is made to determine if the trend is simply following the market or deviating. Regardless of the filtration, we find that there is a clear deviation from the market. Comparing these data sets, there are significantly different trends: isolated events have a constantly decreasing, erratic trend in volatility but an increasing, linear trend is observed for clustered events. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we would expect a change when new information is publicly known and the results of this study support this claim.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, event study, volatility, VIX

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Authors: Shashank Bhatnagar, W. Wilfred Godfrey

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We develop in this paper, an approach to find the trendy topic, which not only considers the user-topic interaction but also considers the community, in which user belongs. This method modifies the previous approach of user-topic interaction to user-community-topic interaction with better speed-up in the range of [1.1-3]. We assume that trend detection in a social network is dependent on two things. The one is, broadcast of messages in social network governed by self-exciting point process, namely called Hawkes process and the second is, Community Rank. The influencer node links to others in the community and decides the community rank based on its PageRank and the number of users links to that community. The community rank decides the influence of one community over the other. Hence, the Hawkes process with the kernel of user-community-topic decides the trendy topic disseminated into the social network.

Keywords: community detection, community rank, Hawkes process, influencer node, pagerank, trend detection

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Authors: Jay Mar D. Quevedo, Fernando P. Siringan, Cesar L. Villanoy

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The influence of the Younger Dryas (YD) event on primary production off the northeast shelf of Luzon, Philippines is examined using sediment cores from two deep sea sites north of the Bicol shelf and with varying relative influence from terrestrial sediment input and the Kuroshio Current. Core A is immediately west of the Kuroshio feeder current and is off the slope while Core B is from a bathymetric high located almost west of Core A. XRF-, CHN- and LOI- derived geochemical proxies are utilized for reconstruction. A decrease in sediment input from ~12.9 to ~11.6 kyr BP corresponding to the YD event is indicated by the proxies, Ti, Al, and Al/Ti, in both cores. This is consistent with the drier climate during this period. Primary productivity indicators in the cores show opposing trends during the YD; Core A shows an increasing trend while Core B shows a decreasing trend. The decreasing trend in Core B can be due to a decrease in terrestrial nutrient input due to a decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, the increasing trend in Core A can be due to a swifter Kuroshio Current caused by a swifter and more southerly NEC bifurcation which in turn is due to a southerly shift of the ITCZ during YD. A stronger Kuroshio feeder would have enhanced upwelling induced by steeper sea surface across the current and by more intense cyclonic gyres due to flow separation where the shelf width suddenly decreases north of the Bicol Shelf.

Keywords: paleoproductivity, younger dryas, Philippines, northeastern Luzon

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Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) refers to the alteration of the Earth's energy balance from the scattering and absorption of solar radiation by aerosol particles. India experiences substantial ADRF due to high aerosol loading from various sources. These aerosols' radiative impact depends on their physical characteristics (such as size, shape, and composition) and atmospheric distribution. Quantifying ADRF is crucial for understanding aerosols’ impact on the regional climate and the Earth's radiative budget. In this study, we have taken radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 22 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. Except for a few locations, the short-wave DARF exhibits aerosol cooling at the TOA (values ranging from +2.5 W/m2 to -22.5W/m2). Cooling due to aerosols is more pronounced in the absence of clouds. Being an aerosol hotspot, higher negative ADRF is observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Aerosol Forcing Efficiency (AFE) shows a decreasing seasonal trend in winter (DJF) over the entire study region while an increasing trend over IGP and western south India during the post-monsoon season (SON) in clear-sky conditions. Analysing atmospheric heating and AOD trends, we found that only the aerosol loading is not governing the change in atmospheric heating but also the aerosol composition and/or their vertical profile. We used a Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) Level-2 Version 23 aerosol products to look into aerosol composition. MISR incorporates 74 aerosol mixtures in its retrieval algorithm based on size, shape, and absorbing properties. This aerosol mixture information was used for analysing long-term changes in aerosol composition and dominating aerosol species corresponding to the aerosol forcing value. Further, ADRF derived from this method is compared with around 35 studies across India, where a plane parallel Radiative transfer model was used, and the model inputs were taken from the OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) utilizing only limited aerosol parameter measurements. The result shows a large overestimation of TOA warming by the latter (i.e., Model-based method).

Keywords: aerosol radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, MISR, CERES, SBDART

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Authors: S. Amirhossein Tabatabaei, Abdulghader A. Aldaeef, Mohammad T. Rayhani

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As the permafrost continues to melt in the northern regions due to global warming, a soil-water mixture is left behind with drastically lower strength; a phenomenon that directly impacts the resilience of existing structures and infrastructure systems. The frozen soil-structure interaction, which in ice-poor soils is controlled by both interface shear and ice-bonding, changes its nature into a sole frictional state. Adfreeze, the controlling mechanism in frozen soil-structure interaction, diminishes as the ground temperature approaches zero. The main purpose of this paper is to capture the altered behaviour of frozen interface with respect to rising temperature, especially near melting states. A series of pull-out tests are conducted on model piles inside a cold room to study how the strength parameters are influenced by the phase change in ice-poor soils. Steel model piles, embedded in artificially frozen cohesionless soil, are subjected to both sustained pull-out forces and constant rates of displacement to observe the creep behaviour and acquire load-deformation curves, respectively. Temperature, as the main variable of interest, is increased from a lower limit of -10°C up to the point of melting. During different stages of the temperature rise, both skin deformations and temperatures are recorded at various depths along the pile shaft. Significant reduction of pullout capacity and accelerated creep behaviour is found to be the primary consequences of rising temperature. By investigating the different pull-out capacities and deformations measured during step-wise temperature change, characteristics of the transition from frozen to unfrozen soil-structure interaction are studied.

Keywords: Adfreeze, frozen soil-structure interface, ice-poor soils, pull-out capacity, warming permafrost

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Authors: Yurike, Yonariza, Rudi Febriamansyah, Syafruddin Karimi

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Forest is a natural resource that has an important function as a supporting element of human life. Forest degradation enormous impact on global warming is a reality we have experienced together, that disruption of ecosystems, extreme weather conditions, disruption of water management system watersheds and the threat of natural disasters as floods, landslides and droughts, even disruption food security. Dharmasraya is a district in the province of West Sumatra, which has an area of 92.150 ha of forest, which is largely a former production forest concessions (Forest Management Rights) which is supposed to be a secondary forest. This study answers about the impact of land use in the former concession area Dharmasraya on the environment. The methodology used is the household survey, key informants, and satellite data / GIS. From the results of the study, the former concession area in Dharmasraya experienced a reduction of forest cover over time significantly. Forest concessions should be secondary forests in Dharmasraya, now turned conversion to oil palm plantations. Population pressures and growing economic pressures, resulting in more intensive harvesting. As a result of these forest disturbances caused changes in forest functions. These changes put more emphasis towards economic function by ignoring social functions or ecological function. Society prefers to maximize their benefits today and pay less attention to the protection of natural resources. This causes global warming is increasing and this is not only felt by people around Dharmasraya but also the world. Land clearing by the community through a process in slash and burn. This fire was observed by NOAA satellites and recorded by the Forest Service of West Sumatra. This demonstrates the ability of trees felled trees to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) to be lost, even with forest fires accounted for carbon dioxide emitted into the air, and this has an impact on global warming. In addition to the change of control of land into oil palm plantations water service has been poor, people began to trouble the water and oil palm plantations are located in the watershed caused the river dried up. Through the findings of this study is expected to contribute ideas to the policy makers to pay more attention to the former concession forest management as the prevention or reduction of global warming.

Keywords: climate change, community, concession forests, environment

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Authors: Su-Hyun Cho, Chang-U Chae

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Environmental impact assessment techniques have been developed as a result of the worldwide efforts to reduce the environmental impact of global warming. By using the quantification method in the construction industry, it is now possible to manage the greenhouse gas is to systematically evaluate the impact on the environment over the entire construction process. In particular, the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions at the production stage of construction material occupied is high, and efforts are needed in particular in the construction field. In this study, intended for concrete products for the construction materials, by using the LCA evaluation method, we compared the results of environmental impact assessment and carbon emissions of developing products that have been applied low-carbon technologies compared to existing products. As a results, by introducing a raw material of industrial waste, showed carbon reduction. Through a comparison of the carbon emission reduction effect of low-carbon technologies, it is intended to provide academic data for the evaluation of greenhouse gases in the construction sector and the development of low-carbon technologies of the future.

Keywords: CO₂ emissions, CO₂ reduction, ready-mixed concrete, environmental impact assessment

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Authors: Inga Badasyan

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Every year we do monitoring of water pollution of catchment basin of Debed River. Next, the Ministry of Nature Protection does modeling programme. Finely, we are managing the impact of water pollution in Debed river. Ecosystem technologies efficiency performance were estimated based on the physical, chemical, and macrobiological analyses of water on regular base between 2012 to 2015. Algae community composition was determined to assess the ecological status of Debed river, while vegetation was determined to assess biodiversity. Last time, experts werespeaking about global warming, which is having bad impact on the surface water, freshwater, etc. As, we know that global warming is caused by the current high levels of carbon dioxide in the water. Geochemical modelling is increasingly playing an important role in various areas of hydro sciences and earth sciences. Geochemical modelling of highly concentrated aqueous solutions represents an important topic in the study of many environments such as evaporation ponds, groundwater and soils in arid and semi-arid zones, costal aquifers, etc. The sampling time is important for benthic macroinvertebrates, for that reason we have chosen in the spring (abundant flow of the river, the beginning of the vegetation season) and autumn (the flow of river is scarce). The macroinvertebrates are good indicator for a chromic pollution and aquatic ecosystems. Results of our earlier investigations in the Debed river reservoirs clearly show that management problem of ecosystem reservoirs is topical. Research results can be applied to studies of monitoring water quality in the rivers and allow for rate changes and to predict possible future changes in the nature of the lake.

Keywords: ecohydrological monitoring, flood risk management, global warming, aquatic macroinvertebrates

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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The aim of the paper is to analyze the characteristics of winter fog in terms of its trend and spatial-temporal variability over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study reveals that during last four and half decades (1971-2015), an alarming increasing trend in fog frequency has been observed during the winter months of December and January over the study area. The frequency of fog has increased by 118.4% during the peak winter months of December and January. It has also been observed that on an average central part of IGP has 66.29% fog days followed by west IGP with 41.94% fog days. Further, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition and Mann-Kendall variation analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of winter fog. The findings have significant implications for the further research of fog over IGP and formulate robust strategies to adapt the fog variability and mitigate its effects. The decision by Delhi Government to implement odd-even scheme to restrict the use of private vehicles in order to reduce pollution and improve quality of air may result in increasing the alarming increasing trend of fog over Delhi and its surrounding areas regions of IGP.

Keywords: fog, climatology, spatial variability, temporal variability

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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Authors: Benbiao Song, Yan Gao, Zhuo Liu

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Geostatistical modeling is the key technic for reservoir characterization, the quality of geological models will influence the prediction of reservoir performance greatly, but few studies have been done to quantify the factors impacting geostatistical reservoir modeling accuracy. In this study, 16 fluvial prototype models have been established to represent different geological complexity, 6 cases range from 16 to 361 wells were defined to reproduce all those 16 prototype models by different methodologies including SIS, object-based and MPFS algorithms accompany with different constraint parameters. Modeling accuracy ratio was defined to quantify the influence of each factor, and ten realizations were averaged to represent each accuracy ratio under the same modeling condition and parameters association. Totally 5760 simulations were done to quantify the relative contribution of each factor to the simulation accuracy, and the results can be used as strategy guide for facies modeling in the similar condition. It is founded that data density, geological trend and geological complexity have great impact on modeling accuracy. Modeling accuracy may up to 90% when channel sand width reaches up to 1.5 times of well space under whatever condition by SIS and MPFS methods. When well density is low, the contribution of geological trend may increase the modeling accuracy from 40% to 70%, while the use of proper variogram may have very limited contribution for SIS method. It can be implied that when well data are dense enough to cover simple geobodies, few efforts were needed to construct an acceptable model, when geobodies are complex with insufficient data group, it is better to construct a set of robust geological trend than rely on a reliable variogram function. For object-based method, the modeling accuracy does not increase obviously as SIS method by the increase of data density, but kept rational appearance when data density is low. MPFS methods have the similar trend with SIS method, but the use of proper geological trend accompany with rational variogram may have better modeling accuracy than MPFS method. It implies that the geological modeling strategy for a real reservoir case needs to be optimized by evaluation of dataset, geological complexity, geological constraint information and the modeling objective.

Keywords: fluvial facies, geostatistics, geological trend, modeling strategy, modeling accuracy, variogram

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Authors: Nikola Góral, Piotr Mikołajczuk, Paweł Buczyński

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Much scientific research in the last 20 years has focused on the influence of global warming on the distribution and phenology of living organisms. Three potential responses to climate change are predicted: individual species may become extinct, adapt to new conditions in their existing range or change their range by migrating to places where climatic conditions are more favourable. It means not only migration to areas in other latitudes, but also different altitudes. In the case of dragonflies (Odonata), monitoring in Western Europe has shown that in response to global warming, dragonflies tend to change their range to a more northern one. The strongest response to global warming is observed in arctic and alpine species, as well as in species capable of migrating over long distances. The aim of the research was to assess whether the fauna of aquatic insects in high-mountain habitats has changed as a result of climate change and, if so, how big and what type these changes are. Dragonflies were chosen as a model organism because of their fast reaction to changes in the environment: they have high migration abilities and short life cycle. The state of the populations of boreal-mountain species and the extent to which lowland species entered high altitudes was assessed. The research was carried out on 20 sites in Western Sudetes, Southern Poland. They were located at an altitude of between 850 and 1250 m. The selected sites were representative of many types of valuable alpine habitats (subalpine raised bog, transitional spring bog, habitats associated with rivers and mountain streams). Several sites of anthropogenic origin were also selected. Thanks to this selection, a wide characterization of the fauna of the Karkonosze was made and it was compared whether the studied processes proceeded differently, depending on whether the habitat is primary or secondary. Both imagines and larvae were examined (by taking hydrobiological samples with a kick-net), and exuviae were also collected. Individual species dragonflies were characterized in terms of their reproductive, territorial and foraging behaviour. During each inspection, the basic physicochemical parameters of the water were measured. The population of the high-mountain dragonfly Somatochlora alpestris turned out to be in a good condition. This species was noted at several sites. Some of those sites were situated relatively low (995 m AMSL), which proves that the thermal conditions at the lower altitudes might be still optimal for this species. The protected by polish law species Somatochlora arctica, Aeshna subarctica and Leucorrhinia albifrons, as well as strongly associated with bogs Leucorrhinia dubia and Aeshna juncea bogs were observed. However, they were more frequent and more numerous in habitats of anthropogenic origin, which may suggest minor changes in the habitat preferences of dragonflies. The subject requires further research and observations over a longer time scale.

Keywords: alpine species, bioindication, global warming, habitat preferences, population dynamics

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Authors: Geeta Kumari, Prabu Vairakannu

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Underground coal gasification (UCG) technology is an efficient and an economic in-situ clean coal technology, which converts unmineable coals into calorific valuable gases. This technology avoids ash disposal, coal mining, and storage problems. CO₂ gas can be a potential gasifying medium for UCG. CO₂ is a greenhouse gas and, the liberation of this gas to the atmosphere from thermal power plant industries leads to global warming. Hence, the capture and reutilization of CO₂ gas are crucial for clean energy production. However, the reactivity of high ash Indian coals with CO₂ needs to be assessed. In the present study, two varieties of Indian coals (low ash and high ash) are used for thermogravimetric analyses (TGA). Two low ash north east Indian coals (LAC) and a typical high ash Indian coal (HAC) are procured from the coal mines of India. Low ash coal with 9% ash (LAC-1) and 4% ash (LAC-2) and high ash coal (HAC) with 42% ash are used for the study. TGA studies are carried out to evaluate the activation energy for pyrolysis and gasification of coal under N₂ and CO₂ atmosphere. Coats and Redfern method is used to estimate the activation energy of coal under different temperature regimes. Volumetric model is assumed for the estimation of the activation energy. The activation energy estimated under different temperature range. The inherent properties of coals play a major role in their reactivity. The results show that the activation energy decreases with the decrease in the inherent percentage of coal ash due to the ash layer hindrance. A reverse trend was observed with volatile matter. High volatile matter of coal leads to the estimation of low activation energy. It was observed that the activation energy under CO₂ atmosphere at 400-600°C is less as compared to N₂ inert atmosphere. At this temperature range, it is estimated that 15-23% reduction in the activation energy under CO₂ atmosphere. This shows the reactivity of CO₂ gas with higher hydrocarbons of the coal volatile matters. The reactivity of CO₂ with the volatile matter of coal might occur through dry reforming reaction in which CO₂ reacts with higher hydrocarbon, aromatics of the tar content. The observed trend of Ea in the temperature range of 150-200˚C and 400-600˚C is HAC > LAC-1 >LAC-2 in both N₂ and CO₂ atmosphere. At the temperature range of 850-1000˚C, higher activation energy is estimated when compared to those values in the temperature range of 400-600°C. Above 800°C, char gasification through Boudouard reaction progressed under CO₂ atmosphere. It was observed that 8-20 kJ/mol of activation energy is increased during char gasification above 800°C compared to volatile matter pyrolysis between the temperature ranges of 400-600°C. The overall activation energy of the coals in the temperature range of 30-1000˚C is higher in N₂ atmosphere than CO₂ atmosphere. It can be concluded that higher hydrocarbons such as tar effectively undergoes cracking and reforming reactions in presence of CO₂. Thus, CO₂ gas is beneficial for the production of high calorific value syngas using high ash Indian coals.

Keywords: clean coal technology, CO₂ gasification, activation energy, underground coal gasification

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Authors: Iliya Bitrus Abaje

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This study examines the evidence of climate change scenario in Kaduna State from the analysis of temperature and rainfall data (1976-2015) from three meteorological stations along a geographic transect from the southern part to the northern part of the State. Different statistical methods were used in determining the changes in both the temperature and rainfall series. The result of the linear trend lines revealed a mean increase in average temperature of 0.73oC for the 40 years period of study in the State. The plotted standard deviation for the temperature anomalies generally revealed that years of temperatures above the mean standard deviation (hotter than the normal conditions) in the last two decades (1996-2005 and 2006-2015) were more than those below (colder than the normal condition). The Cramer’s test and student’s t-test generally revealed an increasing temperature trend in the recent decades. The increased in temperature is an evidence that the earth’s atmosphere is getting warmer in recent years. The linear trend line equation of the annual rainfall for the period of study showed a mean increase of 316.25 mm for the State. Findings also revealed that the plotted standard deviation for the rainfall anomalies, and the 10-year non-overlapping and 30-year overlapping sub-periods analysis in all the three stations generally showed an increasing trend from the beginning of the data to the recent years. This is an evidence that the study area is now experiencing wetter conditions in recent years and hence climate change. The study recommends diversification of the economic base of the populace with emphasis on moving away from activities that are sensitive to temperature and rainfall extremes Also, appropriate strategies to ameliorate the scourge of climate change at all levels/sectors should always take into account the recent changes in temperature and rainfall amount in the area.

Keywords: anomalies, linear trend, rainfall, temperature

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