Search results for: nested logit

Authors: Donglan Zha, Jiansong Si

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Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.

Keywords: bias of technical change, CES production function, elasticity of substitution, energy input

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Authors: Praveen Vayalamkuzhi, Veeraragavan Amirthalingam

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Studies on safety on highways are becoming the need of the hour as over 400 lives are lost every day in India due to road crashes. In order to evaluate the factors that lead to different levels of crash severity, it is necessary to investigate the level of safety of highways and their relation to crashes. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify the factors that contribute to road crashes and to quantify their effect on the severity of road crashes. The study was carried out on a four-lane divided rural highway in India. The variables considered in the analysis includes components of horizontal alignment of highway, viz., straight or curve section; time of day, driveway density, presence of median; median opening; gradient; operating speed; and annual average daily traffic. These variables were considered after a preliminary analysis. The major complexities in the study are the heterogeneous traffic and the speed variation between different classes of vehicles along the highway. To quantify the impact of each of these factors, statistical analyses were carried out using Logit model and also negative binomial regression. The output from the statistical models proved that the variables viz., horizontal components of the highway alignment; driveway density; time of day; operating speed as well as annual average daily traffic show significant relation with the severity of crashes viz., fatal as well as injury crashes. Further, the annual average daily traffic has significant effect on the severity compared to other variables. The contribution of highway horizontal components on crash severity is also significant. Logit models can predict crashes better than the negative binomial regression models. The results of the study will help the transport planners to look into these aspects at the planning stage itself in the case of highways operated under heterogeneous traffic flow condition.

Keywords: geometric design, heterogeneous traffic, road crash, statistical analysis, level of safety

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Authors: Showkat Ahmad Bhat, M. S. Bhatt

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The study evaluates the ex-post impact of institutional credit on agricultural output. It first examines the key factors that influence the accessibility of institutional credit by farm households. For quantitative analysis both program participant and non-participant respondents were drawn and cross-sectional survey data were collected from 412 households in Pulwama District of Jammu & Kashmir (India). Propensity Score Matching Method was employed to analyze the impact of the institutional credit on agricultural output. Results show that institutional credit has a positive and significant impact on the agricultural output measured in terms of farm income and crop productivity. To estimate the accessibility of credit, an examination of both demand side and supply side factors were carried out. The demand for credit was measured with respect to respondents who applied for credit. Supply side credit allocation measured in terms of the proportion of ‘credit amount’ farmers obtained. Logit and Two-limit Tobit Regression Models were used to investigate the determinants that influence the accessibility of formal credit for Demand for and supply of credit respectively. The estimated results suggested that the demand for credit is positively and significantly affected by the factors such as: age of the household head, formal education, membership, cash crop grown, farm size and saving account. All the variables were found significantly increasing the household’s likelihood to demand for and supply of credit from banks. However, the impact of these factors varies considerably across the credit markets. Factors which were found negatively and significantly influencing the accessibility of credit were: ‘square of the age’, household assets and rate of interest. The credit constraints analysis suggested that square of the age; household assets and rate of interest were the three most important factors that increased the probability of being constrained. The study finally discusses these results in detail and draws some recommendations.

Keywords: institutional credit, agriculture, propensity score matching logit model, Tobit model

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Authors: Malika El Kyal, Ahmed Machmoum

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We prove the superlinear convergence of asynchronous multi-splitting methods applied to differential equations. This study is based on the technique of nested sets. It permits to specify kind of the convergence in the asynchronous mode.The main characteristic of an asynchronous mode is that the local algorithm not have to wait at predetermined messages to become available. We allow some processors to communicate more frequently than others, and we allow the communication delays to be substantial and unpredictable. Note that synchronous algorithms in the computer science sense are particular cases of our formulation of asynchronous one.

Keywords: parallel methods, asynchronous mode, multisplitting, ODE

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Authors: Meltem Ucal

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It is obvious that with limited resources and increasing of energy consumption from day to day, increase in amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase risk of climate change. The objective of “Raising Awareness in Energy Efficiency of Household Appliances and Climate Change” paper is to make the connection between climate change and energy saving to be understood. First of all, research and evaluation aiming improvement of women’s behaviors of purchasing and using household appliances and also educate next generations who will be faced risks of climate change, with their mothers will be done.

Keywords: energy efficiency, climate change, wareness, household appliences, econometrics model, logit model

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Authors: Akiode Ayobami, Akiode Akinsewa, Odeku Mojisola, Salako Busola, Odutolu Omobola, Nuhu Khadija

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Purpose: Evidence exists that family planning use can contribute to reduction in infant and maternal mortality in any country. Despite these benefits, contraceptive use in Nigeria still remains very low, only 10% among married women. Understanding factors that predict contraceptive use is very important in order to improve the situation. In this paper, we analysed data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) to better understand predictors of contraceptive use in Nigeria. The use of logistics regression and other traditional models in this type of situation is not appropriate as they do not account for social structure influence brought about by the hierarchical nature of the data on response variable. We therefore used multilevel modelling to explore the determinants of contraceptive use in order to account for the significant variation in modern contraceptive use by socio-demographic, and other proximate variables across the different Nigerian states. Method: This data has a two-level hierarchical structure. We considered the data of 26, 403 married women of reproductive age at level 1 and nested them within the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja at level 2. We modelled use of modern contraceptive against demographic variables, being told about FP at health facility, heard of FP on TV, Magazine or radio, husband desire for more children nested within the state. Results: Our results showed that the independent variables in the model were significant predictors of modern contraceptive use. The estimated variance component for the null model, random intercept, and random slope models were significant (p=0.00), indicating that the variation in contraceptive use across the Nigerian states is significant, and needs to be accounted for in order to accurately determine the predictors of contraceptive use, hence the data is best fitted by the multilevel model. Only being told about family planning at the health facility and religion have a significant random effect, implying that their predictability of contraceptive use varies across the states. Conclusion and Recommendation: Results showed that providing FP information at the health facility and religion needs to be considered when programming to improve contraceptive use at the state levels.

Keywords: multilevel modelling, family planning, predictors, Nigeria

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Authors: S. Ben Fredj, H. Ghali, M. Ben Rejeb, S. Layouni, S. Khefacha, L. Dhidah, H. Said

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Background: The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) provides continuous care and uses a high level of treatment technologies. Although developed country hospitals allocate only 5–10% of beds in critical care areas, approximately 20% of nosocomial infections (NI) occur among patients treated in ICUs. Whereas in the developing countries the situation is still less accurate. The aim of our study is to assess mortality rates in ICUs and to determine its predictive factors. Methods: We carried out a nested case-control study in a 630-beds public tertiary care hospital in Eastern Tunisia. We included in the study all patients hospitalized for more than two days in the surgical or medical ICU during the entire period of the surveillance. Cases were patients who died before ICU discharge, whereas controls were patients who survived to discharge. NIs were diagnosed according to the definitions of ‘Comité Technique des Infections Nosocomiales et les Infections Liées aux Soins’ (CTINLIS, France). Data collection was based on the protocol of Rea-RAISIN 2009 of the National Institute for Health Watch (InVS, France). Results: Overall, 301 patients were enrolled from medical and surgical ICUs. The mean age was 44.8 ± 21.3 years. The crude ICU mortality rate was 20.6% (62/301). It was 35.8% for patients who acquired at least one NI during their stay in ICU and 16.2% for those without any NI, yielding an overall crude excess mortality rate of 19.6% (OR= 2.9, 95% CI, 1.6 to 5.3). The population-attributable fraction due to ICU-NI in patients who died before ICU discharge was 23.46% (95% CI, 13.43%–29.04%). Overall, 62 case-patients were compared to 239 control patients for the final analysis. Case patients and control patients differed by age (p=0,003), simplified acute physiology score II (p < 10-3), NI (p < 10-3), nosocomial pneumonia (p=0.008), infection upon admission (p=0.002), immunosuppression (p=0.006), days of intubation (p < 10-3), tracheostomy (p=0.004), days with urinary catheterization (p < 10-3), days with CVC ( p=0.03), and length of stay in ICU (p=0.003). Multivariate analysis demonstrated 3 factors: age older than 65 years (OR, 5.78 [95% CI, 2.03-16.05] p=0.001), duration of intubation 1-10 days (OR, 6.82 [95% CI, [1.90-24.45] p=0.003), duration of intubation > 10 days (OR, 11.11 [95% CI, [2.85-43.28] p=0.001), duration of CVC 1-7 days (OR, 6.85[95% CI, [1.71-27.45] p=0.007) and duration of CVC > 7 days (OR, 5.55[95% CI, [1.70-18.04] p=0.004). Conclusion: While surveillance provides important baseline data, successful trials with more active intervention protocols, adopting multimodal approach for the prevention of nosocomial infection incited us to think about the feasibility of similar trial in our context. Therefore, the implementation of an efficient infection control strategy is a crucial step to improve the quality of care.

Keywords: intensive care unit, mortality, nosocomial infection, risk factors

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Authors: Huynh Viet Khai, Mitsuyasu Yabe

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The study investigated the economic value of biodiversity attributes that could provide policy-makers reliable information to estimate welfare losses due to biodiversity reductions and analyse the trade-off between biodiversity and economics. In order to obtain the non-market benefits of biodiversity conservation, an indirect utility function and willingness to pay for biodiversity attributes were applied using the approach of choice modelling with the analysis of conditional logit model. The study found that Mekong Delta residents accepted their willingness to pay for VND 913 monthly for a one percent increase in healthy vegetation, VND 360 for an additional mammal species and VND 2,440 to avoid the welfare losses of 100 local farmers.

Keywords: choice modelling, genetic resources, wetland conservation, marginal willingness to pay

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Authors: Bryan Jenkins

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Introduction: The expansion of irrigation in the Canterbury region has led to the sustainability limits being reached for water availability and the cumulative effects of land use intensification. The institutional framework under New Zealand’s Resource Management Act was found to be an inadequate basis for managing water at sustainability limits. An alternative paradigm for water management was developed based on collaborative governance and nested adaptive systems. This led to the formulation and implementation of the Canterbury Water Management Strategy. Methods: The nested adaptive system approach was adopted. Sustainability issues were identified at multiple spatial and time scales and defined potential failure pathways for the water resource system. These included biophysical and socio-economic issues such as water availability, cumulative effects on water quality due to land use intensification, projected changes in climate, public health, institutional arrangements, economic outcomes and externalities, and, social effects of changing technology. This led to the derivation of sustainability strategies to address these failure pathways. The collaborative governance approach involved stakeholder participation and community engagement to decide on a regional strategy; regional and zone committees of community and rūnanga (Māori groups) members to develop implementation programmes for the strategy; and, farmer collectives for operational management. Findings: The strategy identified improvements in the efficiency of use of water already allocated was more effective in improving water availability than a reliance on increased storage alone. New forms of storage with less adverse impacts were introduced, such as managed aquifer recharge and off-river storage. Reductions of nutrients from land use intensification by improving management practices has been a priority. Solutions packages for addressing the degradation of vulnerable lakes and rivers have been prepared. Biodiversity enhancement projects have been initiated. Greater involvement of Māori has led to the incorporation of kaitiakitanga (resource stewardship) into implementation programmes. Emerging issues are the need for improved integration of surface water and groundwater interactions, increased use of modelling of water and financial outcomes to guide decision making, and, equity in allocation among existing users as well as between existing and future users. Conclusions: However, sustainability analysis indicates that the proposed levels of management interventions are not sufficient to achieve community targets for water management. There is a need for more proactive recovery and rehabilitation measures. Managing to environmental limits is not sufficient, rather managing adaptive cycles is needed. Better measurement and management of water use efficiency is required. Proposed implementation packages are not sufficient to deliver desired water quality outcomes. Greater attention to targets important to environmental and recreational interests is needed to maintain trust in the collaborative process. Implementation programmes don’t adequately address climate change adaptations and greenhouse gas mitigation. Affordability is a constraint on adaptive capacity of farmers and communities. More funding mechanisms are required to implement proactive measures. The legislative and institutional framework needs to be changed to incorporate water framework legislation, regional sustainability strategies and water infrastructure coordination.

Keywords: collaborative governance, irrigation management, nested adaptive systems, sustainable water management

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Authors: Peter Pfeifer, Julian Pfeifer, Niko Pfeifer

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Information processing is the focus of brain and cognition research. This work has a different perspective; it starts with behaviors. The detailed analysis of behaviors leads to the discovery that a significant proportion of them are based on only five basic drives. These basic drives are combinable, and the combinations result in the diversity of human behavior and thinking. The key elements are drive memories. They collect memories of drive-related situations and feelings. They contain variations of basic drives in numerous areas of life and build combinations with different meanings depending on the area. Human thinking could be explained with variations on these nested combinations of basic drives.

Keywords: cognition, psycholinguistics, psychology, psychophysiology of cognition

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Authors: Frederick Nyakudya

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In this paper, we examine the relationship between human capital, personal wealth and social capital to explain the differential start-up rates between female and male entrepreneurs. Since our dependent variable is dichotomous, we examine the determinants of these using a maximum likelihood logit estimator. We used the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor database covering the period 2006 to 2009 with 421 usable cases drawn from drawn from the Lower Layer Super Output Areas in the East Midlands in the United Kingdom. we found evidence that indicates that a female positively moderate the positive relationships between indicators of human capital, personal wealth and social capital with start-up activity. The findings have implications for programs, policies, and practices to encourage more females to engage in start-up activity.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, star-up, gender, GEM

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Authors: Kajori Banerjee, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

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India is a part of the ongoing globalization, contemporary convergence, industrialization and technical advancement that is taking place world-wide. Some of the manifestations of this evolution is rapid demographic, socio-economic, epidemiological and health transition. There has been a considerable increase in non-communicable diseases due to change in lifestyle. This study aims to assess the direction of burden of disease and compare the pressure of infectious diseases against cardio-vascular, endocrine, metabolic and nutritional diseases. The change in prevalence in a ten-year period (2004-2014) is further decomposed to determine the net contribution of various socio-economic and demographic covariates. The present study uses the recent 71st (2014) and 60th (2004) rounds of National Sample Survey. The pressure of infectious diseases against cardio-vascular (CVD), endocrine, metabolic and nutritional (EMN) diseases during 2004-2014 is calculated by Prevalence Rates (PR), Hospitalization Rates (HR) and Case Fatality Rates (CFR). The prevalence of non-communicable diseases are further used as a dependent variable in a logit regression to find the effect of various social, economic and demographic factors on the chances of suffering from the particular disease. Multivariate decomposition technique further assists in determining the net contribution of socio-economic and demographic covariates. This paper upholds evidences of stagnation of the burden of communicable diseases (CD) and rapid increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) uniformly for all population sub-groups in India. CFR for CVD has increased drastically in 2004-2014. Logit regression indicates the chances of suffering from CVD and EMN is significantly higher among the urban residents, older ages, females, widowed/ divorced and separated individuals. Decomposition displays ample proof that improvement in quality of life markers like education, urbanization, longevity of life has positively contributed in increasing the NCD prevalence rate. In India’s current epidemiological phase, compression theory of morbidity is in action as a significant rise in the probability of contracting the NCDs over the time period among older ages is observed. Age is found to play a vital contributor in increasing the probability of having CVD and EMN over the study decade 2004-2014 in the nationally representative sample of National Sample Survey.

Keywords: cardio-vascular disease, case-fatality rate, communicable diseases, hospitalization rate, multivariate decomposition, non-communicable diseases, prevalence rate

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Authors: Lakmini Wijesooriya, Vicki Chalker, Jessica Day, Priyantha Perera, N. P. Sunil-Chandra

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M. pneumoniae has been identified as an etiology for exacerbation of asthma (EQA), although viruses play a major role in EOA. M. pneumoniae infection is treated empirically with macrolides, and its antibiotic sensitivity is not detected routinely. Characterization of the organism by genotyping and determination of macrolide resistance is important epidemiologically as it guides the empiric antibiotic treatment. To date, there is no such characterization of M. pneumoniae performed in Sri Lanka. The present study describes the characterization of M. pneumoniae detected from a child with EOA following a screening of 100 children with EOA. Of the hundred children with EOA, M. pneumoniae was identified only in one child by Real-Time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for identifying the community-acquired respiratory distress syndrome (CARDS) toxin nucleotide sequences. The M. pneumoniae identified from this patient underwent detection of macrolide resistance via conventional PCR, amplifying and sequencing the region of the 23S rDNA gene that contains single nucleotide polymorphisms that confer resistance. Genotyping of the isolate was performed via nested Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) in which eight (8) housekeeping genes (ppa, pgm, gyrB, gmk, glyA, atpA, arcC, and adk) were amplified via nested PCR followed by gene sequencing and analysis. As per MLST analysis, the M. pneumoniae was identified as sequence type 14 (ST14), and no mutations that confer resistance were detected. Resistance to macrolides in M. pneumoniae is an increasing problem globally. Establishing surveillance systems is the key to informing local prescriptions. In the absence of local surveillance data, antibiotics are started empirically. If the relevant microbiological samples are not obtained before antibiotic therapy, as in most occasions in children, the course of antibiotic is completed without a microbiological diagnosis. This happens more frequently in therapy for M. pneumoniae which is treated with a macrolide in most patients. Hence, it is important to understand the macrolide sensitivity of M. pneumoniae in the setting. The M. pneumoniae detected in the present study was macrolide sensitive. Further studies are needed to examine a larger dataset in Sri Lanka to determine macrolide resistance levels to inform the use of macrolides in children with EOA. The MLST type varies in different geographical settings, and it also provides a clue to the existence of macrolide resistance. The present study enhances the database of the global distribution of different genotypes of M. pneumoniae as this is the first such characterization performed with the increased number of samples to determine macrolide resistance level in Sri Lanka. M. pneumoniae detected from a child with exacerbation of asthma in Sri Lanka was characterized as ST14 by MLST and no mutations that confer resistance were detected.

Keywords: mycoplasma pneumoniae, Sri Lanka, characterization, macrolide resistance

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Authors: Somruay Apichatibutarapong, Chookiat Pudprommart

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The purpose of this study was to develop of statistical analysis by using R programming via internet applied for agriculture experimental design. Data were collected from 65 items in completely randomized design, randomized block design, Latin square design, split plot design, factorial design and nested design. The quantitative approach was used to investigate the quality of learning media on statistical analysis by using R programming via Internet by six experts and the opinions of 100 students who interested in experimental design and applied statistics. It was revealed that the experts’ opinions were good in all contents except a usage of web board and the students’ opinions were good in overall and all items.

Keywords: experimental design, r programming, applied statistics, statistical analysis

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Authors: Zhiwei Yan, Jong-Hyouk Lee, Yong-Jin Park, Xiaodong Lee

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In this paper, we analyze NEtwork MObility (NEMO) supporting problems in Content-Centric Networking (CCN), and propose the CCN-NEMO which can well support the deployment of the content-centric paradigm in large-scale mobile Internet. The CCN-NEMO extends the signaling message of the basic CCN protocol, to support the mobility discovery and fast trigger of Interest re-issuing during the network mobility. Besides, the Mobile Router (MR) is extended to optimize the content searching and relaying in the local subnet. These features can be employed by the nested NEMO to maximize the advantages of content retrieving with CCN. Based on the analysis, we compare the performance on handover latency between the basic CCN and our proposed CCN-NEMO. The results show that our scheme can facilitate the content-retrieving in the NEMO scenario with improved performance.

Keywords: NEMO, CCN, mobility, handover latency

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Authors: Kibret Berhanu Getinet

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Off-farm income diversification by farm rural households has gained the attention of researchers and policymakers due to the fact that agriculture failed to meet the needs of people in developing countries like Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate income diversification strategies into off-farm activities among rural households in Hawassa Zuria Woreda, Sidama National Regional State, Ethiopia. The study used primary and secondary data sources for the primary data collection questionnaire employed as a data collection instrument. A multistage sampling technique was used to collect data from a total of 197 sample households from four kebeles of the study area. Descriptive statistics, as well as econometrics methods of data analysis, were employed. The descriptive statistics result indicates that the majority of sample rural households (68.53 %) have engaged in off-farm income diversification activities while the remaining 31.47% of households did not participate in the diversification in the study area. The choice of participants among the strategies indicates that 6.60% of respondents participated in off-farm wage employment, 30.46% participated in off-farm self-employment, and about 31.47% of them participated in both off-farm wage employment. The study revealed that the share of off-farm income in total annual earnings of households was about 48.457%, and thus, the off-farm diversification significantly contributes to the rural household income. Moreover, binary and multinomial logistic regression models were employed to identify factors that affect the participation and the choices of the off-farm income diversification strategies, respectively. The binary logit model result indicated that agro-ecological zone, education status of the households, available technical skills of the household, household saving, total livestock owned by the households, access to electricity, road access and being married of household head were significant and positively affected the chance of diversification in off-farm activities while the on-farm income of households is negatively affected the chance of diversification. Similarly, the multinomial logistic regression model estimate revealed that agroecological zone, on-farm income, available technical skills, household savings, and access to electricity are positively related and significantly influenced the household’s choice of employment into off-farm wage employment. The off-farm self-employment diversification choice is significantly influenced by on-farm income, available technical skills, household savings, total livestock owned, and access to electricity. Moreover, the result showed that the factors that affect the choice of farm households to engage in both off-farm wage and self-employment are ecological zone, education status, on-farm income, available technical skills, household own saving, market access, total livestock owned, access to electricity and road access. Thus, due attention should be given to addressing the demographic, socio-economic, and institutional constraints to strengthen off-farm income diversification strategies to improve the income of rural households.

Keywords: off-farm, incoem, diversification, logit model

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Authors: Lian Kösters, Wendy Smits, Raymond Montizaan

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The number of solo self-employed in the Netherlands has been increasing for years. The relative increase is among the largest in the EU. To explain this increase, most studies have focused on the supply side, workers who offer themselves as solo self-employed. The number of studies that focus on the demand side, the employer who hires the solo self-employed, is still scarce. Studies into employer behaviour conducted until now show that employers mainly choose self-employed workers when they have a temporary need for specialist knowledge, but also during projects or production peaks. These studies do not provide insight into the employers’ considerations for different contract types. In this study, interviews with employers were conducted, and available literature was consulted to provide an overview of the several factors employers use to compare different contract types. That input was used to set up a vignette study. This was carried out at the end of 2021 among almost 1000 business owners, HR managers, and business leaders of Dutch companies. Each respondent was given two sets of five fictitious candidates for two possible positions in their organization. They were asked to rank these candidates. The positions varied with regard to the type of tasks (core tasks or support tasks) and the time it took to train new people for the position. The respondents were asked additional questions about the positions, such as the required level of education, the duration, and the degree of predictability of tasks. The fictitious candidates varied, among other things, in the type of contract on which they would come to work for the organization. The results were analyzed using a rank-ordered logit analysis. This vignette setup makes it possible to see which factors are most important for employers when choosing to hire a solo self-employed person compared to other contracts. The results show that there are no indications that employers would want to hire solo self-employed workers en masse. They prefer regular employee contracts. The probability of being chosen with a solo self-employed contract over someone who comes to work as a temporary employee is 32 percent. This probability is even lower than for on-call and temporary agency workers. For a permanent contract, this probability is 46 percent. The results provide indications that employers consider knowledge and skills more important than the solo self-employed contract and that this can compensate. A solo self-employed candidate with 10 years of work experience has a 63 percent probability of being found attractive by an employer compared to a temporary employee without work experience. This suggests that employers are willing to give someone a less attractive contract for the employer if the worker so wishes. The results also show that the probability that a solo self-employed person is preferred over a candidate with a temporary employee contract is somewhat higher in business economics, administrative and technical professions. No significant results were found for factors where it was expected that solo self-employed workers are preferred more often, such as for unpredictable or temporary work.

Keywords: employer behaviour, rank-ordered logit analysis, solo self-employment, temporary contract, vignette study

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Authors: Harris Maduku, Irrshad Kaseeram

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The objective of this paper is to understand the factors behind the formalisation willingness of South African black owned SMMEs. Cross-sectional data were collected using a questionnaire from 390 informal businesses in Johannesburg and Pretoria using stratified random sampling and clustered sampling. This study employed a multinomial logistic regression to quantitatively understand what encourages informal SMMEs to be willing to mainstreaming their operations. We find government support, corruption, employment compensation, family labour, success perception, education status, age and financing as key drivers on willingness of SMMEs to formalize their operations. The findings of our study points to government departments to invest more on both financial and non-financial strategies like capacity building and business education on informal SMMEs to cultivate their willingness to mainstream.

Keywords: mainstreaming, transition, informal, willingness, multinomial logit

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Authors: Arrian Cornwell, Larisa Yarovaya, Mary Thomson

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This paper seeks to examine the transboundary nature of foreign subsidiary exit vs. stay decisions when threatened by conflict in a host country. Using the concepts of nested vulnerability and teleconnections, we show that the threat of conflict can transcend bounded territories and have non-linear outcomes for actors, institutions and systems at broader scales of analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this has not been done before. By introducing the concepts of ‘leapfrogging upwards’ and ‘cascading downwards’, we develop a two-stage model which characterises the impacts of conflict as transboundary phenomena. We apply our model to a dataset of 266 foreign subsidiaries in six conflict-afflicted host countries over 2011-2015. Our results indicate that information is transmitted upwards and subsequent pressure flows cascade downwards, which, in turn, influence exit decisions.

Keywords: subsidiary exit, conflict, information transmission, pressure flows, transboundary

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Authors: John Deely, Stephen Hynes, Mary Cawley, Sarah Hogan

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Domestic marine and coastal tourism have increased in importance over the last number of years due to the impacts of international travel, environmental concerns, associated health benefits and COVID-19 related travel restrictions. Consequently, this paper conceptualizes domestic marine and coastal tourism within an economic framework. Two logit models examine the factors that influence participation in the coastal day trips and overnight stays markets, respectively. Two truncated travel cost models are employed to explore trip duration, one analyzing the number of day trips taken and the other examining the number of nights spent in marine and coastal areas. Although a range of variables predicts participation, no one variable had a significant and consistent effect on every model. A division in access to domestic marine and coastal tourism is also observed based on variation in household income. The results also indicate a vibrant day trip market and large consumer surpluses.

Keywords: domestic marine and coastal tourism, day tripper, participation models, truncated travel cost model

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Authors: Admassu Addi, Sebesebe Demissew, Teshome Soromessa, Zemede Asfaw

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This study measures the carbon stock of the Moist Afromontane Gesha-Sayilem forest found in Gesha and Sayilem District in southwest Ethiopia. A stratified sampling method was used to identify the number of sampling point through the Global Positioning System. A total of 90 plots having nested plots to collect tree species and soil data were demarcated. The results revealed that the total carbon stock of the forest was 362.4 t/ha whereas the above ground carbon stock was 174.95t/ha, below ground litter, herbs, soil, and dead woods were 34.3,1.27, 0.68, 128 and 23.2 t/ha (up to 30 cm depth) respectively. The Gesha- Sayilem Forest is a reservoir of high carbon and thus acts as a great sink of the atmospheric carbon. Thus conservation of the forest through introduction REDD+ activities is considered an appropriate action for mitigating climate change.

Keywords: carbon sequestration, carbon stock, climate change, allometric, Ethiopia

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Authors: Baqir Khawari

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This study has been undertaken to investigate the impact of remittances on household poverty and inequality using OLS and Logit Models with a strictly multi-random sampling method. The result of the OLS model reveals that if the per capita international remittances increase by 1%, then it is estimated that the per capita income will increase by 0.071% and 0.059% during 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively. In addition, a 1% increase in external remittances results in a 0.0272% and 0.025% reduction in per capita depth of poverty and a 0.0149% and 0.0145% decrease in severity of poverty during 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively. It is also shown that the effect of external remittances on poverty is greater than internal remittances. In terms of inequality, the result represents that remittances reduced the Gini coefficient by 2% and 7% during 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively. Further, it is bold that COVID-19 negatively impacts the amount of received remittances by households, thus resulting in a reduction in the size of the effect of remittances. Therefore, a concerted effort of effective policies and governance and international assistance is imperative to address this prolonged problem.

Keywords: migration, remittances, poverty, inequality, COVID-19, Afghanistan

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Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

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Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, stochastic user equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning

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Authors: Preeti Aghalayam, Jay Shah

Abstract:

Underground coal gasification (UCG) is the in-situ gasification of unmineable coals to produce syngas. In UCG, gasifying agents are injected into the coal seam, and a reactive cavity is formed due to coal consumption. The cavity formed is typically hemispherical, and this report consists of the MATLAB model of the UCG cavity to predict the composition of the output gases. There are seven radial and two time-variant ODEs. A MATLAB solver (ode15s) is used to solve the radial ODEs from the above equations. Two for-loops are implemented in the model, i.e., one for time variations and another for radial variation. In the time loop, the radial odes are solved using the MATLAB solver. The radial loop is nested inside the time loop, and the density odes are numerically solved using the Euler method. The model is validated by comparing it with the literature results of laboratory-scale experiments. The model predicts the radial and time variation of the product gases inside the cavity.

Keywords: gasification agent, MATLAB model, syngas, underground coal gasification (UCG)

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Authors: Mohammadhadi Mirmohammadi, Reza Safian, Hossein Haddad

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative solution for complex multi-objective optimization problem which is a part of efforts toward maximizing rolling mill throughput and minimizing processing costs in tandem cold rolling. This computational intelligence based optimization has been applied to the rolling schedules of tandem cold rolling mill. This method involves the combination of two derivative-free optimization procedures in the form of nested loops. The first optimization loop is based on Improving Hit and Run method which focus on balance of power, force and reduction distribution in rolling schedules. The second loop is a real-coded genetic algorithm based optimization procedure which optimizes energy consumption and productivity. An experimental result of application to five stand tandem cold rolling mill is presented.

Keywords: derivative-free optimization, Improving Hit and Run method, real-coded genetic algorithm, rolling schedules of tandem cold rolling mill

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Authors: Bashir Tijjani Abubakar

Abstract:

Capital markets play a very important role in financing of private and public institutions in both developing and developed economies. Unfortunately, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in those economies are yet to fully utilize the markets to finance their long financial needs. This study assesses the factors that influence the decisions of the Muslim Owners/Managers of SMEs in Nigeria and specifically in Kano to seek capital market financing. Logit regression model was used to assess the factors such as control of ownership, perception of the owners/managers on the interest rate charged by commercial banks, educational qualification, size, and age of the SMEs. The study reveals that all the factors have significant positive influence on the willingness of the SMEs Owners/Managers to seek capital market financing. The study recommends educating the Owners/Managers on the operations and products of the markets.

Keywords: capital markets, capital market financing, small and medium enterprise and willingness, size of an enterprise, age of an enterprise and control of ownership

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Shahrbanoo Bagheri, Sepideh Nikravesh

Abstract:

Considering the importance and scarcity of water resources, the efficient management of water resources is of great importance. Adoption of modern irrigation technology is considered to be a key of increasing the efficiency of water used in agriculture. Policy makers have implemented several ways to induce the adoption of new irrigation technology. The empirical studies show that farmers are reluctant to utilize the use of new irrigation methods. This study aims to assess factors affecting on farmer’s decision on the application of water saving technologies with emphasize on crop price variation and water sources. A Logit model was employed to examine the impact of different variables on use of water saving technology. The required data gathered from a sample of 204 farmers in the year 2012. The results indicate that different variables such as crop price variability, water supply source, high-value crops, farm size, income, education, membership in cooperatives have a positive effect and variables such as age and number of plots have a negative impact on the probability of adopting modern water saving technologies.

Keywords: irrigation, water, water saving technology, scarcity

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: A. Jerves, H. Ling, J. Gabaldon, M. Usoltceva, C. Couste, A. Agarwal, R. Hurley, J. Andrade

Abstract:

This work introduces a simple device designed to perform in-situ direct shear and sinkage tests on granular materials as sand, clays, or regolith. It consists of a box nested within a larger box. Both have open bottoms, allowing them to be lowered into the material. Afterwards, two rotating plates on opposite sides of the outer box will rotate outwards in order to clear regolith on either side, providing room for the inner box to move relative to the plates and perform a shear test without the resistance of the surrounding soil. From this test, Coulomb parameters, including cohesion and internal friction angle, as well as, Bekker parameters can be inerred. This device has been designed for a laboratory setting, but with few modications, could be put on the underside of a rover for use in a remote location. The goal behind this work is to ultimately create a compact, but accurate measuring tool to put onto a rover or any kind of exploratory vehicle to test for regolith properties of celestial bodies.

Keywords: simple shear, friction angle, Bekker parameters, device, regolith

Procedia PDF Downloads 481

Authors: Svetlana Pushkar, Oleg Verbitsky

Abstract:

An energy-conscious design for a classroom in a hot-humid climate is reanalyzed. The hypothesis of this study is that use of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation in building operation energy consumption will lead to re-analysis of the energy-conscious design. Therefore, the objective of this study is to reanalyze the energy-conscious design by evaluating the environmental impact of operational energy with PV electrical generation. Using the hierarchical design structure of Eco-indicator 99, the alternatives for energy-conscious variables are statistically evaluated by applying a two-stage nested (hierarchical) ANOVA. The recommendations for the preferred solutions for application of glazing types, wall insulation, roof insulation, window size, roof mass, and window shading design alternatives were changed (for example, glazing type recommendations were changed from low-emissivity glazing, green, and double- glazed windows to low-emissivity glazing only), whereas the applications for the lighting control system and infiltration are not changed. Such analysis of operational energy can be defined as environment-conscious analysis.

Keywords: ANOVA, Eco-Indicator 99, energy-conscious design, hot–humid climate, photovoltaic

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Sharmin Nasrin

Abstract:

Dhaka is the capital of Bangladesh. In Dhaka among other trips, significant percentages of trips comprise education trips. This paper explores significant factors for private university students’ education trip to the University. A paper pencil based survey has been conducted on Asia Pacific University student in Dhaka from May 2016 to July 2016. Participants were chosen randomly for the survey. Exploratory analysis showed that about 50% chose bus, 33% chose Rickshaw, 2% chose car and 15% chose to walk for travel to their University. Results from Multinomial Logit model revealed that travel cost, travel time and comfort are the significant factors for private university students to choose different modes. However, magnitude of coefficient of attribute comfort is significantly higher compared to travel cost and travel time. Result from this paper can be used by policymakers and Government agencies to provide more cost effective, comfortable journey to their University.

Keywords: private university student's education trip, mode choice mode, Dhaka, developing country

Procedia PDF Downloads 412