Search results for: accident modeling

Authors: Anna Dolinayova, Jozef Danis, Juraj Camaj

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The report deals with comparison of traffic accidents in Slovak republic in road and rail transport since year 2009 until 2014, with evaluation of external costs and consequently with the possibilities of their internalization. The results of road traffic accidents analysis are realized in line with after-effects they have caused; in line with main cause, place of origin (within or out of town) and in accordance to age of people they were killed or hard, eventually easy injured in traffic accidents. Evaluation of individual after-effects is carried in terms of probability of traffic accidents occurrence.

Keywords: external costs, traffic accident, rail transport, road transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 564

Authors: Tadashi Watanabe

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The LSTF experiment simulating the SGTR accident at the Mihama Unit-2 reactor is analyzed using the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code. In the accident and thus in the experiment, the ECC water was injected not only into the cold legs but into the upper plenum. Overall transients during the experiment such as pressures and fluid temperatures are simulated well by the code. The cold-leg fluid temperatures are shown to decrease if the upper plenum injection system is connected to the cold leg. It is found that the cold-leg fluid temperatures also decrease if the upper-plenum injection is not used and the cold-leg injection alone is actuated.

Keywords: SGTR, LSTF, RELAP5, ECCS

Procedia PDF Downloads 641

Authors: Hela Ghali, Oumayma Ben Amor, Salwa Khefacha, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Sirine Frigui, Meriam Tourki Dhidah, Lamine Dhidah, Houyem Said Laatiri

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Background: Blood exposure accidents are the most common problem in hospitals that threaten healthcare professionals with a high risk of infectious complications which weighs heavily on health systems worldwide. Paramedics are the highest risk group due to the nature of their daily activities. We aimed to determine knowledge and attitudes about the management of blood-exposure accidents among nurses and technicians in two pediatric departments. Materials/Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted on March 2017, carried out with the care staff of the pediatric ward of the Farhat Hached Teaching Hospital of Sousse and pediatric surgery of the Fattouma Bourguiba University Hospital in Monastir, using a pre- tested and self-administered questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using Excel software. Results: The response rate was 85.1%. A female predominance (82.5%) was reported among respondents with a sex ratio of 0.21. 80% of the participants were under 35 years old. Seniority of less than 10 years was found in 77.5% of respondents. Only 22.5% knew the definition of a blood- exposure accident. 100% and 95% of participants reported the relative risk, respectively, to hepatitis and AIDS viruses. However, only 15% recognized the severity factors of a blood-exposure accident. Hygiene compliance was the most important dimension for almost the entire population for the prevention. On the other hand, only 12.5% knew the meaning of 'standard precautions' and ¼ considered them necessary for at-risk patients only. 40% reported being exposed at least once, among them, 87.5% used betadine, and 77.5% said that anti-infectious chemoprophylaxis is necessary regardless of the patient's serological status. However, 52.5% did not know the official reporting circuit of management of blood-exposure accident in their institutions. Conclusion: For better management of risks in hospitals and an improvement of the safety of the care, a reinforcement of the sensibilization of the caregivers with regard to the risks of blood exposure accident is necessary, while developing their knowledge to act in security.

Keywords: attitudes, blood-exposure accident, knowledge, pediatric department

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Authors: Jay Xiong, Li Lin

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Existing software modeling and visualization approaches using UML are outdated, which are outcomes of reductionism and the superposition principle that the whole of a system is the sum of its parts, so that with them all tasks of software modeling and visualization are performed linearly, partially, and locally. This paper introduces revolutionary solutions for modeling and visualization of complex software systems, which make complex software systems much easy to understand, test, and maintain. The solutions are based on complexity science, offering holistic, automatic, dynamic, virtual, and executable approaches about thousand times more efficient than the traditional ones.

Keywords: complex systems, software maintenance, software modeling, software visualization

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Authors: Armana Huq

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Railway networks have a significant role in the economy of any country. Similar to other transportation modes, many lives suffer from fatalities or injuries caused by accidents related to the railway. Railway accidents are not as common as roadway accidents yet they are more devastating and damaging than other roadway accidents. Despite that, issues related to railway accidents are not taken into consideration with significant attention as a major threat because of their less frequency compared to other accident categories perhaps. However, the Federal Railroad Administration reported nearly twelve thousand train accidents related to the railroad in the year 2014, resulting in more than eight hundred fatalities and thousands of injuries in the United States alone of which nearly one third fatalities resulted from railway crossing accidents. From an analysis of railway accident data of six years (2005-2010), it has been revealed that 344 numbers of the collision were occurred resulting 200 people dead and 443 people injured in Bangladesh. This paper includes a comprehensive overview of the railway safety situation in Bangladesh from 1998 to 2015. Each year on average, eight fatalities are reported in at-grade level crossings due to railway accidents in Bangladesh. In this paper, the number of railway accidents that occurred in Bangladesh has been presented and a fatality rate of 58.62% has been estimated as the percentage of total at-grade railway level crossing accidents. For this study, analysis of railway accidents in Bangladesh for the period 1998 to 2015 was obtained from the police reported accident database using MAAP (Microcomputer Accident Analysis Package). Investigation of the major contributing factors to the railway accidents has been performed using the Multinomial Logit model. Furthermore, hotspot analysis has been conducted using ArcGIS. Eventually, some suggestions have been provided to mitigate those accidents.

Keywords: safety, human factors, multinomial logit model, railway

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Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu, Chenguang Wang, Xinming Tu

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This article analyzes the causal effects of informal care, mental health, and physical health on falls and other accidents (e.g. traffic accidents) among elderly people. To purge potential reversal causal effects, e.g., past accidents induce more future informal care, we use two-stage least squares to identify the impacts. By using longitudinal data from a representative national China Health and retirement longitudinal study of people aged 45 and older in China, our findings indicate that informal care decreases while poor health conditions increase the occurrence of accidents. We also find heterogeneous impacts on the occurrence of accidents, varying by gender, urban status, and past accident history. Our findings suggest the following three policy implications. First, policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account. Second, ease of birth policy and postponed retirement policy are urgent to meet the demand of informal care. Third, medical policies should attach great importance to not only physical health but also mental health of elderly parents especially for older people with accident history.

Keywords: accident, China, fall, informal care, mental health, physical health

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

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Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: accident research, accident scenarios, ADAS, effectiveness, property damage analysis

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Authors: S. A. Che Osmi, W. M. F. W. Ishak, S. F. Che Osmi

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Nowadays the issues of water quality and water pollution have been a major problem across the country. A lot of management attempt to develop their own TMDL database in order to control the river pollution. Over the past decade, the mathematical modeling has been used as the tool for the development of TMDL. This paper presents the application of water quality modeling to develop the total maximum daily load (TMDL) information. To obtain the reliable database of TMDL, the appropriate water quality modeling should choose based on the available data provided. This paper will discuss on the use of several water quality modeling such as QUAL2E, QUAL2K, and EFDC to develop TMDL. The attempts to integrate several modeling are also being discussed in this paper. Based on this paper, the differences in the application of water quality modeling based on their properties such as one, two or three dimensional are showing their ability to develop the modeling of TMDL database.

Keywords: TMDL, water quality modeling, QUAL2E, EFDC

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Authors: Asanka U. K. Godamunne

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Road traffic accidents (RTA) are a leading cause of death globally as well as in Sri Lanka and results in a large proportion of disability especially among young people. Ninety-percent of world’s road traffic deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The gross disparities in injury outcomes relate to immediate post-crash and hospital management. Emergency management, methods of patient transportation following road traffic accidents and safety measures are important factors to reduce mortality and morbidity. Studies in this area are limited in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this research was to assess the emergency management and proper method of transportation of road traffic accident victims. This offers the best way to explore the ways to reduce the mortality and morbidity and raise the public awareness. This study was conducted as a descriptive cross-sectional study. All the consecutive road traffic accident victims admitted to surgical wards at District General Hospital, Matale, Sri Lanka, over a period of three months were included in the study. Data from 387 victims were analyzed. The majority were in the 20-30 year age group. Seventy six percent of the patients were males. Motorcycles and trishaws were most affected. First-aid was given to only 2% of patients and it was given by non-medical persons. A significant proportion of patients (75%) were transported to the hospital by trishaws and only 1% transported by ambulance. About 86% of the patients were seated while transport and 14% were flat. Limbs and head were the most affected areas of the body. As per this study, immediate post-crash management and patient transportation were not satisfactory. There is a need to strengthen certain road safety laws and make sure people follow them.

Keywords: emergency management, patient transportation, road traffic accident victims, Sri Lanka

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. T. Lin, Y. Chiang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih

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Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is located on the northern coast of Taiwan. Its nuclear steam supply system is a type of BWR/6 designed and built by General Electric on a twin unit concept. First, the methodology of Kuosheng NPP SPU (Stretch Power Uprate) safety analysis TRACE/SNAP model was developed in this research. Then, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP under the more severe condition, the SBO (Station Blackout) + LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP SPU TRACE/SNAP model was performed. Besides, the animation model of Kuosheng NPP was presented using the animation function of SNAP with TRACE/SNAP analysis results.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, severe accident

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Authors: Ikumapayi Catherine Mayowa

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The well-being of humans on a construction site is critical; abundant manpower had been lost through accidents which kill or make workers physically unfit to carry out construction activities, these, in turn, have multiple effects on the whole economy. Thus, it is necessary to put all safety items and regulations in place before construction activities can commence. This study was carried out in the Ondo state of Nigeria to investigate and analyze the state of health and safety of construction workers in the state. The study was done using first-hand observations, 50 construction project sites were visited in ten major towns of Ondo state, questionnaires were distributed, and the results were analyzed. The result shows that construction workers are being exposed to many construction site hazards due to lack of inadequate safety programs and lack of appropriate safety equipment for workers on site. From the data gotten from each site visited and the statistical analysis, it can be concluded that occurrences of an accident on construction sites depend significantly on the available safety facilities on the sites. The result of the regression statistics shows that the dependence of the frequency of occurrence of an accident on the availability of safety items on the site is 0.0362 which is less than 0.05 maximum significant level allowed. Therefore, a vital way of sustaining our building strategy is given a detail attention to the provision of adequate health and safety items on construction sites which will reduce the occurrence of accident, loss of manpower and death of skilled workers.

Keywords: construction sites, health, safety, welfare

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Farah Fazlinda Binti Mohamad, Ahmad Saifizul Abdullah, Mohamed Rehan Karim , Jamilah Mohamad, Siti Hikmah Musthar

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Road safety is an important issue in Malaysia. It become important as it is discussed widely throughout printed and electronic media. Most of the news portrays on road accident and fatalities have increased the concern of everyone. This issue affects everyone's life as everyone shares the roads. The most vulnerable victims are the road user who uses the roads every day. It is appalling when World Health Organization (WHO) reported that in every 100,000 of population in Malaysia, 23 fatalities recorded due to road accident alone. This figure is quite alarming and requires serious attention. Furthermore, research by Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research concluded that that speeding has contributed to 60% of all road accident in the country. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate the factors that influence road users’ speeding behaviour on selected roads in Peninsular Malaysia. To achieve this, set of questionnaires has distributed to 500 respondents on selected roads in Peninsular Malaysia. The respondents came from various demographic backgrounds in order to have a fair opinion on the issue. Using descriptive analysis, the results have indicated that psychological factors such as emotion and attitude of road user are the prominent factors that influence the road user’s speeding behaviour. Furthermore, the results have shown that male road users were dominant in speeding compared to female, which led to increased vulnerability to road injuries and fatalities. These findings are very useful in order for us to understand road users’ driving behaviour. Relevant authorities should also revise the existing countermeasures and find ways to reduce road accident. Engineers and road experts could cooperate in designing new road specifications for the road user. Nevertheless, it is important to comprehend this speeding issue and factors associated with it. Each road user should take this matter seriously and responsibly as road safety is a responsibility of all.

Keywords: countermeasures, psychological, road safety, speeding

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Authors: L. Korpinen, R. Pääkkönen, F. Gobba

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Accidents and close call situations involving cell phones are nowadays possible. The objective of this study was to investigate the accidents and close call situations due to cell phone use while moving, driving, and working among Finns aged between 18 and 65. This work is part of a large cross-sectional study that was carried out on 15,000 working-age Finns. About 26% of people who had an accident, and about half of the people including close call situation with the mobile phone, answered that use of the phone influenced. In the future, it is important to take into account that the use of a mobile phone can be distracting while driving.

Keywords: blue-collar workers, accident, cell phone, close call situation

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Authors: Iftekhar Hassan, Sayedil Morsalin, Easir A Khan

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Accidents involving fire occur frequently in recent times and their causes showing a great deal of variety which require intervention methods and risk assessment strategies are unique in each case. On September 4, 2020, a fire and explosion occurred in a confined space caused by a methane gas leak from an underground pipeline in Baitus Salat Jame mosque during Night (Esha) prayer in Narayanganj District, Bangladesh that killed 34 people. In this research, this incident is simulated using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software to analyze and understand the nature of the accident and associated consequences. FDS is an advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) system of fire-driven fluid flow which solves numerically a large eddy simulation form of the Navier–Stokes’s equations for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal radiation, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. This study focuses on understanding the nature of the fire and consequence evaluation due to thermal radiation caused by vapor cloud explosion. An evacuation modeling was constructed to visualize the effect of evacuation time and fractional effective dose (FED) for different types of agents. The results were presented by 3D animation, sliced pictures and graphical representation to understand fire hazards caused by thermal radiation or smoke due to vapor cloud explosion. This study will help to design and develop appropriate respond strategy for preventing similar accidents.

Keywords: consequence modeling, fire and explosion, fire dynamics simulation (FDS), thermal radiation

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Authors: Zoltan Theisz, Gergely Mezei

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Modern industrial automation relies on service oriented concepts of Internet of Things (IoT) device modeling in order to provide a flexible and extendable environment for service meta-repository. However, state-of-the-art meta-modeling techniques prefer design-time modeling, which results in a heavy usage of class sometimes unnecessary static subtyping. Although this approach benefits from clear-cut object-oriented design principles, it also seals the model repository for further dynamic extensions. In this paper, a dynamic multi-level modeling approach is introduced that enables dynamic subtyping through a more relaxed partial instantiation mechanism. The approach is demonstrated on a simple sensor network example.

Keywords: meta-modeling, dynamic subtyping, DMLA, industrial automation, arrowhead

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Alfredo Soeiro

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Rehabilitation in construction or built environment is a particular type of operations when concerning prevention of accidents. In fact, it is also a different type of task in construction itself. Therefore, due to the complex characteristics of construction rehabilitation tasks and due to the intrinsic difficulty of preventing accidents in construction, a major challenge faces the responsibility for implementing adequate safety levels in this type of safety management. This paper addresses a set of proposed generic measures to face the unknown characteristics of built environment in terms of stability, materials and actual performance of buildings or other constructions. It is also addressed the necessary adaptation of preventive guidelines to this type of delicate refurbishing and renovating of existing facilities. Training, observation and reflective approaches are necessary to perform this safety management in the rehabilitation of built environment.

Keywords: built environment, rehabilitation, construction safety, accident prevention, safety plan

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Authors: Francisco Toledo-Castillo, María Josefa Sospedra-Baeza, Sergio Hidalgo-Fuentes

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Motorcycles constitute about 9% of all motorized vehicles in Spain and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 21% of total accidents. Six years of motorcycle accident data were obtained through the national accident database of Spain (Dirección General de Tráfico). Some of the studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, speeding, subject’s driving license and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose, and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Key findings show helmet use, unsafe speed, the trip purpose, weather, distraction, collision type and other variables play significant roles in crash-injury outcomes. Finally, we examine evolution of mortality and severity from 2006 to 2011.

Keywords: motorcycle accidents, risk factors, statistics, Spain

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Authors: Amanbek Jainakov, Abdikerim Kurbanaliev

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The work presents the results of mathematical modeling of large-scale flows in areas with a complex topographic relief. The Reynolds-averaged Navier—Stokes equations constitute the basis of the three-dimensional unsteady modeling. The well-known Volume of Fluid method implemented in the solver interFoam of the open package OpenFOAM 2.3 is used to track the free-boundary location. The mathematical model adequacy is checked by comparing with experimental data. The efficiency of the applied technology is illustrated by the example of modeling the breakthrough of the dams of the Andijan (Uzbekistan) and Papan (near the Osh town, Kyrgyzstan) reservoir.

Keywords: three-dimensional modeling, free boundary, the volume-of-fluid method, dam break, flood, OpenFOAM

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Mohammad Mahbub Alam Talukder, Shahnewaz, Hasanat-E-Rabbi, Mohammed Nazrul Islam

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Road traffic accident is a global problem which is severe in the developing countries like Bangladesh. In consequence, in developing countries road trauma has now been recognized as an increasing public health hazards and economic burning issue. And after road traffic accidents the lack of management and economic costs related with health seeking behavior have a disproportionate impact on lower income groups, thus contributing to the persistence of poverty in conjunction with disability. This cross sectional study, carried out during July 2012 to June 2013, aimed to explore health seeking decision and culture of handling the road traffic accident related victims, as taken from experiences of the poor disabled people of slum dwellers of Dhaka city. The present study has been designed based on qualitative techniques such as in-depth interview and case studies. Additionally, a survey questionnaire was used to collect the demographic characteristics of the study population (n=150) and to select participants purposely for in-depth interview (n=50) and case study (n=30). Content analysis of qualitative data was done through theme coding and matrix analysis of case study was done to use relevant verbatim. Most of the time the health seeking decision totally depended on the surrounded people of the accidental place, their knowledge, awareness and remaining facility and capacity regarding proper management of the victims. However, most of the cases the victims did not get any early treatment and it took 2-12 hours to get even the first aid because of distance, shortage of money, lack of availability of getting the aid, lack of mass awareness etc. Under the reality of discriminated and unaffordable health service provision better treatment could not turn out due to economic inability of the poor victims. To avoid the severe trauma, treatment delay must be reduced by providing first aid within very short time and to do so, mass awareness campaign is necessary for handing the victims. Moreover, necessary measures should be taken to ensure cost free health service provision to treat the chronic disabled condition of the road traffic accident related poor victims.

Keywords: accident, injury, disabled, qualitative, slum

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Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Pure economic loss can be brought into the 21st century and become a useful tool to keep the tort of negligence within reasonable limits, provided the concept is minutely reexamined. The term came about when wealth was physical, and Law wanted to be a modern science. As a tool to draw the line, it leads to satisfactory decisions in most cases, but needlessly creates distressing conundrums in others, and these are the ones parties bother to litigate about. Economic loss is deemed to be pure based on a blind negative criterion of physical harm, that inadvertently smelts vastly disparate problems into an indiscernible mass, with arbitrary outcomes. These shortcomings are usually dismissed as minor byproducts, for the lack of a better formula. Law could instead stick to the sound paradigms of the intended rule, and be more specific in identifying the losses deserving of compensation. This would provide a better service to Bench and Bar, and effectively assist everyone navigating the many challenges of Accident Law.

Keywords: accident law, comparative tort law, negligence, pure economic loss

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Authors: Samuel Opeyemi Williams, Razali Adul Hamid, Mohd Saidin Misman, Dominic Ileyemi Ajayi, Taki Eddine Seghier

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Construction industry is famous with hazardous and high-risk environment with operatives facing a greater risk of work-related fatality or injury than operatives in other industries. It is characterised with different types of accident, ranging from electrocution, trip and slip, fall from height, struck-by, explosion, trench collapse, to scaffolding accidents, with each type being caused by different factors. However, accidents are unplanned, unforeseeable and unexpected events, but regardless of the high-risk nature of the industry, accidents are preventable. The aim of the paper is to determine the extent of the utilization of the safety measures, as well as identifying the factors underlining the non-usage. A research methodology consisting of a literature review was used to identify the types and causes of site accidents, while a well-structured questionnaire was used to determine the level of the usage of safety measures on site. The data were analysed with the results revealing the use of protective clothing, safety helmet, first aid, protective shoe, safety belt, and face shield to aid safety of workers, as well as ascribing non-usage of safety measures to cost, ignorance, lack of experts and non-inclusion in contract document. Recommendations are included in the paper suggesting the enforcement of the utilization of safety measures in reducing the spate of accident occurrence on construction sites.

Keywords: construction industry, safety measures, accident, prevention

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Ticijana Prijon, Branko Ermenc

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Background: Blunt aortic trauma (BAT) includes various morphological changes that occur during deceleration, acceleration and/or body compression in traffic accidents. The various forms of BAT, from limited laceration of the intima to complete transection of the aorta, depends on the force acting on the vessel wall and the tolerance of the aorta to injury. The force depends on the change in velocity, the dynamics of the accident and of the seating position in the car. Tolerance to aortic injury depends on the anatomy, histological structure and pathomorphological alterations due to aging or disease of the aortic wall.An overview of the literature and medical documentation reveals that different terms are used to describe certain forms of BAT, which can lead to misinterpretation of findings or diagnoses. We therefore, propose a classification that would enable uniform systematic screening of all forms of BAT. We have classified BAT into three morphologycal types: TYPE I (intramural), TYPE II (transmural) and TYPE III (multiple) aortic ruptures with appropriate subtypes. Methods: All car accident casualties examined at the Institute of Forensic Medicine from 2001 to 2009 were included in this retrospective study. Autopsy reports were used to determine the occurrence of each morphological type of BAT in deceased drivers, front seat passengers and other passengers in cars and to define the morphology of BAT in relation to the accident dynamics and the age of the fatalities. Results: A total of 391 fatalities in car accidents were included in the study. TYPE I, TYPE II and TYPE III BAT were observed in 10,9%, 55,6% and 33,5%, respectively. The incidence of BAT in drivers, front seat and other passengers was 36,7%, 43,1% and 28,6%, respectively. In frontal collisions, the incidence of BAT was 32,7%, in lateral collisions 54,2%, and in other traffic accidents 29,3%. The average age of fatalities with BAT was 42,8 years and of those without BAT 39,1 years. Conclusion: Identification and early recognition of the risk factors of BAT following a traffic accident is crucial for successful treatment of patients with BAT. Front seat passengers over 50 years of age who have been injured in a lateral collision are the most at risk of BAT.

Keywords: aorta, blunt trauma, car accidents, morphology, risk factors

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

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Current systems complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account all the necessary aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponential growing effort, cost and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework and a environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and defines the refined functional as well as non functional requirements modeling tools needs to meet to be useful in model-based system engineering.

Keywords: system modeling, modeling language, modeling requirements, framework

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Authors: A. Juhász, M. Fogarasi

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Those causing fatal traffic accidents are traumatized, which negatively influences their cognitive functions and their personality. In order to clarify how much the trauma of causing a fatal accident effects their driving skills and personality traits, the results of a psychological aptitude and a personality test of drivers carelessly causing fatal accidents and of drivers not causing any accidents were compared separately. The sample (N = 354) consists of randomly selected drivers from the Transportation Aptitude and Examination Centre database who caused fatal accidents (Fatal group, n = 177) or did not cause accidents (Control group, n = 177). The aptitude tests were taken between 2014 and 2019. The comparison of the 2 groups was done according to 3 aspects: 1. Categories of aptitude (suitable, restricted, unsuited); 2. Categories of causes (ability, personality, ability and personality) within the restricted or unsuited (altogether: non-suitable subgroups); 3. Categories of ability and personality within the non-suitable subgroups regardless of the cause-category. Within ability deficiency, the two groups include those, whose ability factor is impaired or limited. This is also true in case of personality failure. Compared to the control group, the number of restricted drivers causing fatal accidents is significantly higher (p < .000) and the number of unsuited drivers is higher on a tendency-level (p = .06). Compared to the control group in the fatal non-suitable subgroup, the ratio of restricted suitability and the unsuitability due to ability factors is exclusively significantly lower (p < .000). The restricted suitability and the unsuitability due to personality factors are more significant in the fatal non-suitable subgroup (p < .000). Incapacity due to combination of ability and personality is also significantly higher in the fatal group (p = .002). Compared to the control group both ability and personality factors are also significantly higher in the fatal non-suitable subgroup (p < .000). Overall, the control group is more eligible for driving than drivers who have caused fatalities. The ability and personality factors are significantly higher in the case of fatal accident causers who are non-suitable for driving. Moreover the concomitance of ability and personality factors occur almost exclusively to drivers who caused fatal accidents. Further investigation is needed to understand the causes and how the aptitude test results for the fatal group could improve over time.

Keywords: aptitude, unsuited, fatal accident, ability, personality

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Authors: Xianping Du, Runlu Miao, Guanjun Zhang, Libo Cao, Feng Zhu

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Current vehicle safety standards and human body injury criteria were established based on the biomechanical response of Euro-American human body, without considering the difference in the body anthropometry and injury characteristics among different races, particularly the East Asian people with smaller body size. Absence of such race specific design considerations will negatively influence the protective performance of safety products for these populations, and weaken the accuracy of injury thresholds derived. To resolve these issues, in this study, we aim to develop a race specific finite element model to simulate the impact response of the lower extremity of a 50th percentile East Asian (Chinese) male. The model was built based on medical images for the leg of an average size Chinese male and slightly adjusted based on the statistical data. The model includes detailed anatomic features and is able to simulate the muscle active force. Thirteen biomechanical tests available in the literature were used to validate its biofidelity. Using the validated model, a pedestrian-car impact accident taking place in China was re-constructed computationally. The results show that the newly developed lower leg model has a good performance in predicting dynamic response and tibia fracture pattern. An additional comparison on the fracture tolerance of the East Asian and Euro-American lower limb suggests that the current injury criterion underestimates the degree of injury of East Asian human body.

Keywords: lower limb, East Asian body characteristics, traffic accident reconstruction, finite element analysis, injury tolerance

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Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

Abstract:

This research aimed to study form of traffic distribution and environmental factors of road that affect traffic accidents in Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen Police Station. Data used in this analysis is the secondary data of traffic accident case from year 2011. Observed area units are 15 traffic lines that are under responsible of Samsen Police Station. Technique and method used are the Cartographic Method, the Correlation Analysis, and the Multiple Regression Analysis. The results of form of traffic accidents show that, the Samsen Road area had most traffic accidents (24.29%), second was Rachvithi Road (18.10%), third was Sukhothai Road (15.71%), fourth was Rachasrima Road (12.38%), and fifth was Amnuaysongkram Road (7.62%). The result from Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen police station, has suggested that the scale of accidents have high positive correlation with statistic significant at level 0.05 and the frequency of travel (r=0.857). Traffic intersection point (r=0.763)and traffic control equipments (r=0.713) are relevant factors respectively. By using the Multiple Regression Analysis, travel frequency is the only one that has considerable influences on traffic accidents in Dusit district only Samsen Police Station area. Also, a factor in frequency of travel can explain the change in traffic accidents scale to 73.40 (R2 = 0.734). By using the Multiple regression summation from analysis was Y ̂=-7.977+0.044X6.

Keywords: form of traffic distribution, environmental factors of road, traffic accidents, Dusit district

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Go Iwashita

Abstract:

The paper describes how the frequencies of heatstroke occurring in indoor built environment are related to the outdoor thermal environment with big statistical data. As the statistical accident data of heatstroke, the nationwide accident data were obtained from the National Agency for the Advancement of Sports and Health (NAASH) . The meteorological database of the Japanese Meteorological Agency supplied data about 1-hour average temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and so forth. Each heatstroke data point from the NAASH database was linked to the meteorological data point acquired from the nearest meteorological station where the accident of heatstroke occurred. This analysis was performed for a 10-year period (2005–2014). During the 10-year period, 3,819 cases of heatstroke were reported in the NAASH database for the investigated secondary/high schools of the nine Japanese representative cities. Heatstroke most commonly occurred in the outdoor schoolyard at a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 31°C and in the indoor gymnasium during athletic club activities at a WBGT > 31°C. The determined accident ratio (number of accidents during each club activity divided by the club’s population) in the gymnasium during the female badminton club activities was the highest. Although badminton is played in a gymnasium, these WBGT results show that the risk level during badminton under hot and humid conditions is equal to that of baseball or rugby played in the schoolyard. Except sports, the high risk of heatstroke was observed in schools houses during cultural activities. The risk level for indoor environment under hot and humid condition would be equal to that for outdoor environment based on the above results of WBGT. Therefore control measures against hot and humid indoor condition were needed as installing air conditions not only schools but also residences.

Keywords: accidents in schools, club activity, gymnasium, heatstroke

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: I. D. Arroyo

Abstract:

This article seeks to integrate different concepts from contemporary software engineering with an agile development approach. We seek to clarify some definitions and uses, we make a difference between the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC) and the methodologies, we differentiate the types of frameworks such as methodological, philosophical and behavioral, standards and documentation. We define relationships based on the documentation of the development process through formal and ad hoc models, and we define the usefulness of using DevOps and Agile Modeling as integrative methodologies of principles and best practices.

Keywords: methodologies, modeling languages, agile modeling, UML

Procedia PDF Downloads 161