Search results for: ontology modelling

Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

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This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.

Keywords: on-body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model, body movement

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Authors: Ould Bouamama, M. Bressel, D. Hissel, M. Hilairet

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Fuel cell (FC) is one of the best alternatives of fossil energy. Recently, the research community of fuel cell has shown a considerable interest for diagnosis in view to ensure safety, security, and availability when faults occur in the process. The problematic for model based FC diagnosis consists in that the model is complex because of coupling of several kind of energies and the numerical values of parameters are not always known or are uncertain. The present paper deals with use of one tool: the Linear Fractional Transformation bond graph tool not only for uncertain modelling but also for monitorability (ability to detect and isolate faults) analysis and formal generation of robust fault indicators with respect to parameter uncertainties.The developed theory applied to a nonlinear FC system has proved its efficiency.

Keywords: bond graph, fuel cell, fault detection and isolation (FDI), robust diagnosis, structural analysis

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Mohd Yusri Ibrahim

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Although it is known that interpersonal skills are essential for personal development, the debate however continues as to how to measure those skills, especially in youths. This study was conducted to develop a measurement model of interpersonal skills by suggesting three construct namely personal, skills and relationship; six function namely self, perception, listening, conversation, emotion and conflict management; and 30 behaviours as indicators. This cross-sectional survey by questionnaires was applied in east side of peninsula of Malaysia for 150 respondents, and analyzed by structural equation modelling (SEM) by AMOS. The suggested constructs, functions and indicators were consider accepted as measurement elements by observing on regression weight for standard loading, average variance extracted (AVE) for convergent validity, square root of AVE for discriminant validity, composite reliability (CR), and at least three fit indexes for model fitness. Finally, a measurement model of interpersonal skill for youth was successfully developed.

Keywords: interpersonal communication, interpersonal skill, youth, communication skill

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Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong

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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.

Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo

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Authors: Achitphol Chookaew, Paramee Thongsukhsai, Patamarerk Engsontia, Narongwit Nakwan, Pritsana Raugrut

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Lung cancer is one of the most common malignancies and primary cause of death due to cancer worldwide. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the main subtype in which majority of patients present with advanced-stage disease. Herein, we analyzed differentially expressed genes to find potential biomarkers for lung cancer diagnosis as well as prognostic markers. We used transcriptome data from our 2 NSCLC patients and public data (GSE81089) composing of 8 NSCLC and 10 normal lung tissues. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between NSCLC and normal tissue and between early-stage and late-stage NSCLC were analyzed by the DESeq2. Pairwise correlation was used to find the DEGs with false discovery rate (FDR) adjusted p-value £ 0.05 and |log2 fold change| ³ 4 for NSCLC versus normal and FDR adjusted p-value £ 0.05 with |log2 fold change| ³ 2 for early versus late-stage NSCLC. Bioinformatic tools were used for functional and pathway analysis. Moreover, the top ten genes in each comparison group were verified the expression and survival analysis via GEPIA. We found 150 up-regulated and 45 down-regulated genes in NSCLC compared to normal tissues. Many immnunoglobulin-related genes e.g., IGHV4-4, IGHV5-10-1, IGHV4-31, IGHV4-61, and IGHV1-69D were significantly up-regulated. 22 genes were up-regulated, and five genes were down-regulated in late-stage compared to early-stage NSCLC. The top five DEGs genes were KRT6B, SPRR1A, KRT13, KRT6A and KRT5. Keratin 6B (KRT6B) was the most significantly increased gene in the late-stage NSCLC. From GEPIA analysis, we concluded that IGHV4-31 and IGKV1-9 might be used as diagnostic biomarkers, while KRT6B and KRT6A might be used as prognostic biomarkers. However, further clinical validation is needed.

Keywords: differentially expressed genes, early and late-stages, gene ontology, non-small cell lung cancer transcriptomics

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Authors: P. Venkata Karthik, B. Kranthi Kumar

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Fly ash is a solid waste product of coal based electric power generating plants. Fly ash is the finest of coal ash particles and it is transported from the combustion chamber by exhaust gases. Fly ash is removed by particulate emission control devices such as electrostatic precipitators or filter fabric bag-houses. It is a fine material with spherical particles. Large quantities of fly ash discharged from coal-fired power stations are a major problem not only in terms of scarcity of land available for its disposal, but also in environmental aspects. Fly ash can be one of the alternatives and can be a viable option to use as a filling material. This paper contains the problems associated with fly ash generation, need for its management and the efficacy of fly ash composite as a backfilling material. By conducting suitable geotechnical investigations and numerical modelling techniques, the fly ash composite material was tested. It also contains case studies of typical Indian opencast and underground coal mines.

Keywords: backfilling, fly ash, high concentration slurry disposal, power plant, void infilling

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Authors: J. Fernandez, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. Perea-Paizal, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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The high prevalence of cardiovascular diseases has provoked a raising interest in the development of mathematical models in order to evaluate the cardiovascular function both under physiological and pathological conditions. In this paper, a physical model of the cardiovascular system with intrinsic regulation is presented and implemented by using the object-oriented Modelica simulation software tools.  For this task, a multi-compartmental system previously validated with physiological data has been built, based on the interconnection of cardiovascular elements such as resistances, capacitances and pumping among others, by following an electrohydraulic analogy. The results obtained under both physiological and pathological scenarios provide an easy interpretative key to analyze the hemodynamic behavior of the patient. The described approach represents a valuable tool in the teaching of physiology for graduate medical and nursing students among others.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, MODELICA simulation software, physical modelling, teaching tool

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Authors: C. Amer, M. Sahin

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The design of an optimised horizontal axis 5-meter-long wind turbine rotor blade in according with IEC 61400-2 standard is a research and development project in order to fulfil the requirements of high efficiency of torque from wind production and to optimise the structural components to the lightest and strongest way possible. For this purpose, a research study is presented here by focusing on the structural characteristics of a composite wind turbine blade via finite element modelling and analysis tools. In this work, first, the required data regarding the general geometrical parts are gathered. Then, the airfoil geometries are created at various sections along the span of the blade by using CATIA software to obtain the two surfaces, namely; the suction and the pressure side of the blade in which there is a hat shaped fibre reinforced plastic spar beam, so-called chassis starting at 0.5m from the root of the blade and extends up to 4 m and filled with a foam core. The root part connecting the blade to the main rotor differential metallic hub having twelve hollow threaded studs is then modelled. The materials are assigned as two different types of glass fabrics, polymeric foam core material and the steel-balsa wood combination for the root connection parts. The glass fabrics are applied using hand wet lay-up lamination with epoxy resin as METYX L600E10C-0, is the unidirectional continuous fibres and METYX XL800E10F having a tri-axial architecture with fibres in the 0,+45,-45 degree orientations in a ratio of 2:1:1. Divinycell H45 is used as the polymeric foam. The finite element modelling of the blade is performed via MSC PATRAN software with various meshes created on each structural part considering shell type for all surface geometries, and lumped mass were added to simulate extra adhesive locations. For the static analysis, the boundary conditions are assigned as fixed at the root through aforementioned bolts, where for dynamic analysis both fixed-free and free-free boundary conditions are made. By also taking the mesh independency into account, MSC NASTRAN is used as a solver for both analyses. The static analysis aims the tip deflection of the blade under its own weight and the dynamic analysis comprises normal mode dynamic analysis performed in order to obtain the natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes focusing the first five in and out-of-plane bending and the torsional modes of the blade. The analyses results of this study are then used as a benchmark prior to modal testing, where the experiments over the produced wind turbine rotor blade has approved the analytical calculations.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, fiber reinforced composites, horizontal axis wind turbine blade, hand-wet layup, modal testing

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Authors: Tatyana Gavrilova, Vadim Onufriev

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Knowledge-based systems’ design requires the developer’s owning the advanced analytical skills. The efficient development of that skills within university courses needs a deep understanding of main pitfalls and drawbacks, which students usually make during their analytical work in form of visual modeling. Thus, it was necessary to hold an analysis of 5-th year students’ learning exercises within courses of 'Intelligent systems' and 'Knowledge engineering' in Saint-Petersburg Polytechnic University. The analysis shows that both lack of system thinking skills and methodological mistakes in course design cause the errors that are discussed in the paper. The conclusion contains an exploration of the issues and topics necessary and sufficient for the implementation of the improved practices in educational design for future curricula of teaching programs.

Keywords: knowledge based systems, knowledge engineering, students’ errors, visual modeling

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Authors: Amit Chaudhary, B. S. Yadav, P. K. Maurya, A. M., S. Srivastava, S. Singh, A. Mani

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Cold shock protein A (CspA) is major cold inducible protein present in Escherichia coli. The protein is involved in stabilizing secondary structure of RNA by working as chaperone during cold temperature. Two RNA binding motifs play key role in the stabilizing activity. This study aimed to investigate implications of low temperature on structure and RNA binding activity of E. coli CspA. Molecular dynamics simulations were performed to compare the stability of the protein at 37°C and 10 °C. The protein was mutated at RNA binding motifs and docked with RNA to assess the stability of both complexes. Results suggest that CspA as well as CspA-RNA complex is more stable at low temperature. It was also confirmed that RNP1 and RNP2 play key role in RNA binding.

Keywords: CspA, homology modelling, mutation, molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Muneer Abbad

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This research explains the e-learning usage in a university in Jordan. Unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model has been used as a base model to explain the usage. UTAUT is a model of individual acceptance that is compiled mainly from different models of technology acceptance. This research is the initial part from full explanations of the users' acceptance model that use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to explain the users' acceptance of the e-learning systems based on UTAUT model. In this part data has been collected and prepared for further analysis. The main factors of UTAUT model has been tested as different factors using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The second phase will be confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and SEM to explain the users' acceptance of e-learning systems.

Keywords: e-learning, moodle, adoption, Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT)

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Authors: Dao Phuong Nam, Do Trong Tan, Pham Tam Thanh, Le Duy Tung, Tran Hoang Anh

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This paper considers the problem of cascade control system for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Due to the complicated modelling technique of UAV, it is necessary to separate them into two subsystems. The proposed cascade control structure is a hierarchical scheme including a robust control for inner subsystem based on H infinity theory and trajectory generator using genetic algorithm (GA), outer loop control law based on multi-parametric programming (MPP) technique to overcome the disadvantage of a big amount of calculations. Simulation results are presented to show that the equivalent path has been found and obtained by proposed cascade control scheme.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, GA, H infinity, multi-parametric programming, MPP, unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs

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Authors: Hashem Dehghanniri

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Crime scripting is a simple and effective crime modeling technique that aims to improve understanding of security analysts about security and crime incidents. Low-quality scripts provide a wrong, incomplete, or sophisticated understanding of the crime commission process, which oppose the purpose of their application, e.g., identifying effective and cost-efficient situational crime prevention (SCP) measures. One important and overlooked factor in generating quality scripts is the crime scripting method. This study investigates the problems within the existing crime scripting practices and proposes a crime scripting approach that contributes to generating quality crime scripts. It was validated by experienced crime scripters. This framework helps analysts develop better crime scripts and contributes to their effective application, e.g., SCP measures identification or policy-making.

Keywords: attack modelling, crime commission process, crime script, situational crime prevention

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Authors: Moqbil S. Alenazi, Magdy. M. Elkhateeb

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A comprehensive photometric study and evolutionary state for the newly discovered Beta Lyr systems V0487 Lac, V0566 Hya, and V0666 Lac were carried out by means of their first photometric observations. New times of minima were estimated from the observed light curves, and first (O-C) curves were established for all systems. A windows interface version of the Wilson and Devinney code (W-D) based on model atmospheres and a pass band prescription have been used for the radiative treatment. The accepted models reveal some absolute parameters for the studied systems, which are used in adopting the spectral type of the system's components and their evolutionary status. Distances to each system were calculated, and physical properties were estimated. Locations of the systems on the theoreticalmass–luminosity and mass–radius relations revealed a good fit for all systems components except for the secondary component of the system V0487 Lac.

Keywords: eclipsing binaries, light curve modelling, evolutionary state

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Authors: P. Ahuja, K. S. S. Sai Krishna

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There is a concern over the energy shortage in the modern societies as it is one of the primary necessities. Renewable energy, mainly biomass, is found to be one feasible solution as it is inexhaustible and clean energy source all over the world. Out of various methods, thermo chemical conversion is considered to be the most common and convenient method to extract energy from biomass. The thermo-chemical methods that are employed are gasification, liquefaction and combustion. On gasification biomass yields biogas, on liquefaction biomass yields bio-oil and on combustion biomass yields bio-char. Any attempt to biomass gasification, liquefaction or combustion calls for a good understanding of biomass pyrolysis. So, Irrespective of the method used the first step towards the thermo-chemical treatment of biomass is pyrolysis. Pyrolysis mainly converts the solid mass into liquid with gas and residual char as the byproducts. Liquid is used for the production of heat, power and many other chemicals whereas the gas and char can be used as fuels to generate heat.

Keywords: biomass, fluidisation, pyrolysis, simulation

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Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

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The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest since it regulates the behavior of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as a combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models

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Authors: Frezer Alem Kebede

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The notion of viewing ICT as merely support for the business process has shifted towards viewing ICT as a critical business enabler. As such, the need for ICT devices has increased, contributing to high electronic equipment acquisition and disposal. Hence, its use and disposal must be seen in light of environmental sustainability, i.e., in terms of green use and disposal. However, there are limited studies on green Use and Disposal framework to be used as guiding lens by organizations in developing countries. And this study endeavors to address that need taking one of the largest multinational ICT intensive company in the country. The design and development of this framework passed through several stages, initially factors affecting green use and disposal were identified after quantitative and qualitative data analysis then there were multiple brainstorming sessions for the design enhancement as participative modelling was employed. Given the difference in scope and magnitude of the challenges identified, the proposed framework approaches green use and disposal in four imperatives; strategically, tactically, operationally and through continuous improvement.

Keywords: energy efficiency, green disposal, green ICT, green use, green use and disposal framework, sustainability

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Authors: Francisco Duarte, Adelino Ferreira, Paulo Fael

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With the growing need for alternative energy sources, research into energy harvesting technologies has increased considerably in recent years. The particular case of energy harvesting on road pavements is a very recent area of research, with different technologies having been developed in recent years. However, none of them have presented high conversion efficiencies nor technical or economic viability. This paper deals with the development of a mechanical system to implement on a road pavement energy harvesting electromechanical device, to transmit energy from the device surface to an electrical generator. The main goal is to quantify the energy harvesting, transmission and conversion efficiency of the proposed system and compare it with existing systems. Conclusions about the system’s efficiency are presented.

Keywords: road pavement, energy harvesting, energy conversion, system modelling

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Authors: Shri Krishna Mishra

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In an educational context, technology can prompt interactive plight only when it is used in conjunction with interactive plight methods. This study, therefore, examines the relationships among components that contribute to higher levels of interactive plight and execution, such as interactive Plight methods, technology, intrinsic motivation and deep learning. 526 students participated in this study. With structural equation modelling, the authors test the conceptual model and identify satisfactory model fit. The results indicate that interactive Plight methods, technology and intrinsic motivation have significant relationship with interactive Plight; deep learning mediates the relationships of the other variables with Execution.

Keywords: searching the relationship among components, contribute to interactive plight, educational execution, intrinsic motivation

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Authors: George R. Puno, Eric N. Bruno

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The natural landscape of the Philippine archipelago plus the current realities of climate change make the country vulnerable to flood hazards. Flooding becomes the recurring natural disaster in the country resulting to lose of lives and properties. Musimusi is among the rivers which exhibited inundation particularly at the inhabited floodplain portion of its watershed. During the event, rescue operations and distribution of relief goods become a problem due to lack of high resolution flood maps to aid local government unit identify the most affected areas. In the attempt of minimizing impact of flooding, hydrologic modelling with high resolution mapping is becoming more challenging and important. This study focused on the analysis of flood extent as a function of different geomorphologic characteristics of Musimusi watershed. The methods include the delineation of morphometric parameters in the Musimusi watershed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and geometric calculations tools. Digital Terrain Model (DTM) as one of the derivatives of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology was used to determine the extent of river inundation involving the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrology Modelling System (HEC-HMS) models. The digital elevation model (DEM) from synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was used to delineate watershed boundary and river network. Datasets like mean sea level, river cross section, river stage, discharge and rainfall were also used as input parameters. Curve number (CN), vegetation, and soil properties were calibrated based on the existing condition of the site. Results showed that the drainage density value of the watershed is low which indicates that the basin is highly permeable subsoil and thick vegetative cover. The watershed’s elongation ratio value of 0.9 implies that the floodplain portion of the watershed is susceptible to flooding. The bifurcation ratio value of 2.1 indicates higher risk of flooding in localized areas of the watershed. The circularity ratio value (1.20) indicates that the basin is circular in shape, high discharge of runoff and low permeability of the subsoil condition. The heavy rainfall of 167 mm brought by Typhoon Seniang last December 29, 2014 was characterized as high intensity and long duration, with a return period of 100 years produced 316 m3s-1 outflows. Portion of the floodplain zone (1.52%) suffered inundation with 2.76 m depth at the maximum. The information generated in this study is helpful to the local disaster risk reduction management council in monitoring the affected sites for more appropriate decisions so that cost of rescue operations and relief goods distribution is minimized.

Keywords: flooding, geomorphology, mapping, watershed

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Authors: Daniel Martin Fellows, Sean P. Walton, Jennifer Thompson, Oubay Hassan, Kevin Tinkham, Ella Quigley

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Structural integrity for cladding products is a key performance parameter, especially concerning fire performance. Cladding products such as PIR-based sandwich panels are tested rigorously, in line with industrial standards. Physical fire tests are necessary to ensure the customer's safety but can give little information about critical behaviours that can help develop new materials. Numerical modelling is a tool that can help investigate a fire's behaviour further by replicating the fire test. However, fire is an interdisciplinary problem as it is a chemical reaction that behaves fluidly and impacts structural integrity. An analysis using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is needed to capture all aspects of a fire performance test. One method is a two-way coupling analysis that imports the updated changes in thermal data, due to the fire's behaviour, to the FEA solver in a series of iterations. In light of our recent work with Tata Steel U.K using a two-way coupling methodology to determine the fire performance, it has been shown that a program called FDS-2-Abaqus can make predictions of a BS 476 -22 furnace test with a degree of accuracy. The test demonstrated the fire performance of Tata Steel U.K Trisomet product, a Polyisocyanurate (PIR) based sandwich panel used for cladding. Previous works demonstrated the limitations of the current version of the program, the main limitation being the computational cost of modelling three Trisomet panels, totalling an area of 9 . The computational cost increases substantially, with the intention to scale up to an LPS 1181-1 test, which includes a total panel surface area of 200 .The FDS-2-Abaqus program is developed further within this paper to overcome this obstacle and better accommodate Tata Steel U.K PIR sandwich panels. The new developments aim to reduce the computational cost and error margin compared to experimental data. One avenue explored is a multi-scale approach in the form of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). The approach allows the user to include refined details of the sandwich panels, such as the overlapping joints, without a computationally costly mesh size.Comparative studies will be made between the new implementations and the previous study completed using the original FDS-2-ABAQUS program. Validation of the study will come from physical experiments in line with governing body standards such as BS 476 -22 and LPS 1181-1. The physical experimental data includes the panels' gas and surface temperatures and mechanical deformation. Conclusions are drawn, noting the new implementations' impact factors and discussing the reasonability for scaling up further to a whole warehouse.

Keywords: fire testing, numerical coupling, sandwich panels, thermo fluids

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Authors: Miklos Taliga

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In the present case study we examined the development and testing methods of systems that contain safety-critical elements in different industrial fields. Consequentially, we observed the classical object-oriented development and testing environment, as both medical technology and automobile industry approaches the development of safety critical elements that way. Subsequently, we examined model-based development. We introduce the quality parameters that define development and testing. While taking modern agile methodology (scrum) into consideration, we examined whether and to what extent the methodologies we found fit into this environment.

Keywords: safety-critical elements, quality managent, unit verification, model base testing, agile methods, scrum, metamodel, object-oriented programming, field specific modelling, sprint, user story, UML Standard

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Authors: Tengku Nilam Baizura, Noor Zalina Mahmood

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In Malaysia, landfilling is the most preferred method and most of it does not have the proper leachate treatment system which can cause environmental problems. Leachate is the major factor to river water pollution since most landfills are located near the river which is the main water resource for the country. The study aimed to estimate leachate production from landfills in Selangor. A simple mathematical modelling was used for the calculation of annual leachate volume. The estimate of identified landfill area (A) using Google Earth was multiplied by the annual rainfall (R). The product is expressed as volume (V). The data indicate that the leachate production is high even it is fully closed. It is important to design the efficient landfill and proper leachate treatment processes especially for the old/closed landfill. Extensive monitoring will be required to predict future impact.

Keywords: landfill, leachate, municipal solid waste management, waste disposal

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Sinan Yapici, Hayrettin Eroglu

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The discharge of the aqueous radionuclides wastes used for the diagnoses of diseases and treatments of patients in nuclear medicine can cause fatal health problems when the radionuclides and its stable daughter component mix with underground water. Tl-201, which is one of the radionuclides commonly used in the nuclear medicine, is a toxic substance and is converted to its stable daughter component Hg-201, which is also a poisonous heavy metal: Tl201 → Hg201 + Gamma Ray [135-167 Kev (12%)] + X Ray [69-83 Kev (88%)]; t1/2 = 73,1 h. The purpose of the present work was to remove Tl-201 radionuclides from aqueous solution by biosorption on the solid bio wastes of food and cosmetic industry as bio sorbents of prina from an olive oil plant, rose residue from a rose oil plant and tea residue from a tea plant, and to make a comparison of the biosorption efficiencies. The effects of the biosorption temperature, initial pH of the aqueous solution, bio sorbent dose, particle size and stirring speed on the biosorption yield were investigated in a batch process. It was observed that the biosorption is a rapid process with an equilibrium time less than 10 minutes for all the bio sorbents. The efficiencies were found to be close to each other and measured maximum efficiencies were 93,30 percent for rose residue, 94,1 for prina and 98,4 for tea residue. In a temperature range of 283 and 313 K, the adsorption decreased with increasing temperature almost in a similar way. In a pH range of 2-10, increasing pH enhanced biosorption efficiency up to pH=7 and then the efficiency remained constant in a similar path for all the biosorbents. Increasing stirring speed from 360 to 720 rpm enhanced slightly the biosorption efficiency almost at the same ratio for all bio sorbents. Increasing particle size decreased the efficiency for all biosorbent; however the most negatively effected biosorbent was prina with a decrease in biosorption efficiency from about 84 percent to 40 with an increase in the nominal particle size 0,181 mm to 1,05 while the least effected one, tea residue, went down from about 97 percent to 87,5. The biosorption efficiencies of all the bio sorbents increased with increasing biosorbent dose in the range of 1,5 to 15,0 g/L in a similar manner. The fit of the experimental results to the adsorption isotherms proved that the biosorption process for all the bio sorbents can be represented best by Freundlich model. The kinetic analysis showed that all the processes fit very well to pseudo second order rate model. The thermodynamics calculations gave ∆G values between -8636 J mol-1 and -5378 for tea residue, -5313 and -3343 for rose residue, and -5701 and -3642 for prina with a ∆H values of -39516 J mol-1, -23660 and -26190, and ∆S values of -108.8 J mol-1 K-1, -64,0, -72,0 respectively, showing spontaneous and exothermic character of the processes. An empirical biosorption model in the following form was derived for each biosorbent as function of the parameters and time, taking into account the form of kinetic model, with regression coefficients over 0.9990 where At is biosorbtion efficiency at any time and Ae is the equilibrium efficiency, t is adsorption period as s, ko a constant, pH the initial acidity of biosorption medium, w the stirring speed as s-1, S the biosorbent dose as g L-1, D the particle size as m, and a, b, c, and e are the powers of the parameters, respectively, E a constant containing activation energy and T the temperature as K.

Keywords: radiation, diosorption, thallium, empirical modelling

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Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

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This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: Thomas Chinwe Urama, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue, Peters Chimezie Nnanwa

Abstract:

This paper investigates the universal financial dynamics in two dominant stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, through an in-depth analysis of the cross-correlation matrix of price returns in Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), for the period 2009 to 2013. The strength of correlations between stocks is known to be higher in JSE than that of the NSM. Particularly important for modelling Nigerian derivatives in the future, the interactions of other stocks with the oil sector are weak, whereas the banking sector has strong positive interactions with the other sectors in the stock exchange. For the JSE, it is the oil sector and beverages that have greater sectorial correlations, instead of the banks which have the weaker correlation with other sectors in the stock exchange.

Keywords: random matrix theory, cross-correlations, emerging markets, option pricing, eigenvalues eigenvectors, inverse participation ratios and implied volatility

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cordova

Abstract:

The pathogen growth in animal source foods is a common problem in the food industry, causing monetary losses due to the spoiling of products or food intoxication outbreaks in the community. In this sense, the quality of the product is reflected by the population of deteriorating agents present in it, which are mainly bacteria. The factors which are likely associated with freshness in animal source foods are temperature and processing, storage, and transport times. However, the level of deterioration of products depends, in turn, on the characteristics of the bacterial population, causing the decomposition or spoiling, such as pH level and toxins. Knowing the growth dynamics of the agents that are involved in product contamination allows the monitoring for more efficient processing. This means better quality and reasonable costs, along with a better estimation of necessary time and temperature intervals for transport and storage in order to preserve product quality. The objective of this project is to design a secondary model that allows measuring the impact on temperature bacterial growth and the competition for pH adequacy and release of bacteriocins in order to describe such phenomenon and, thus, estimate food product half-life with the least possible risk of deterioration or spoiling. In order to achieve this objective, the authors propose an analysis of a three-dimensional ordinary differential which includes; logistic bacterial growth extended by the inhibitory action of bacteriocins including the effect of the medium pH; change in the medium pH levels through an adaptation of the Luedeking-Piret kinetic model; Bacteriocin concentration modeled similarly to pH levels. These three dimensions are being influenced by the temperature at all times. Then, this differential system is expanded, taking into consideration the variable temperature and the concentration of pulsed bacteriocins, which represent characteristics inherent of the modeling, such as transport and storage, as well as the incorporation of substances that inhibit bacterial growth. The main results lead to the fact that temperature changes in an early stage of transport increased the bacterial population significantly more than if it had increased during the final stage. On the other hand, the incorporation of bacteriocins, as in other investigations, proved to be efficient in the short and medium-term since, although the population of bacteria decreased, once the bacteriocins were depleted or degraded over time, the bacteria eventually returned to their regular growth rate. The efficacy of the bacteriocins at low temperatures decreased slightly, which equates with the fact that their natural degradation rate also decreased. In summary, the implementation of the mathematical model allowed the simulation of a set of possible bacteria present in animal based products, along with their properties, in various transport and storage situations, which led us to state that for inhibiting bacterial growth, the optimum is complementary low constant temperatures and the initial use of bacteriocins.

Keywords: bacterial growth, bacteriocins, mathematical modelling, temperature

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Authors: James Moir

Abstract:

The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

Keywords: big data, appearance, disappearance, surface, epistemology

Procedia PDF Downloads 420