Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5

Search results for: Diteboho Xaba

5 Testing the Validity of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in BRICS Countries

Authors: Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho L. Xaba

Abstract:

The increase of capital mobility across emerging economies has become an interesting topic for many economic policy makers. The current study tests the validity of Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for 5 BRICS countries. The sample period of the study runs from 2001 to 2014. The study uses the following parameter estimates well known as the Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS). The results of the study show that investment and savings are cointegrated in the long run. The parameters estimated using FMOLS and DOLS are 0.85 and 0.74, respectively. These results imply that policy makers within BRICS countries have to consider flexible monetary and fiscal policy instruments to influence the mobility of capital with the bloc.

Keywords: Feldstein and Horioka puzzle, saving and investment, panel models, BRICS countries

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4 An Analysis of the Relationship between Manufacturing Growth and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Cointegration Approach

Authors: Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho Xaba, Thatoyaone Modise

Abstract:

This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.

Keywords: Economic growth, Manufacturing Growth, cointegration, Kaldor’s law

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3 A Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Threshold Autoregressive Models on Exchange Rate

Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

Abstract:

This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: Model selection, ARIMA, error metrices, SETAR

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
2 Application of Generalized Autoregressive Score Model to Stock Returns

Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: South Africa, stock returns, generalized autoregressive score model, time-varying

Procedia PDF Downloads 366
1 An Investigative Study into Good Governance in the Non-Profit Sector in South Africa: A Systems Approach Perspective

Authors: Frederick M. Dumisani Xaba, Nokuthula G. Khanyile

Abstract:

There is a growing demand for greater accountability, transparency and ethical conduct based on sound governance principles in the developing world. Funders, donors and sponsors are increasingly demanding more transparency, better value for money and adherence to good governance standards. The drive towards improved governance measures is largely influenced by the need to ‘plug the leaks’, deal with malfeasance, engender greater levels of accountability and good governance and to ultimately attract further funding or investment. This is the case with the Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs) in South Africa in general, and in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in particular. The paper draws from the good governance theory, stakeholder theory and systems thinking to critically examine the requirements for good governance for the NPO sector from a theoretical and legislative point and to systematically looks at the contours of governance currently among the NPOs. The paper did this through the rigorous examination of the vignettes of cases of governance among selected NPOs based in KwaZulu-Natal. The study used qualitative and quantitative research methodologies through document analysis, literature review, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and statistical analysis from the various primary and secondary sources. It found some good cases of good governance but also found frightening levels of poor governance. There was an exponential growth of NPOs registered during the period under review, equally so there was an increase in cases of non-compliance to good governance practices. NPOs operate in an increasingly complex environment. There is contestation for influence and access to resources. Stakeholder management is poorly conceptualized and executed. Recognizing that the NPO sector operates in an environment characterized by complexity, constant changes, unpredictability, contestation, diversity and divergent views of different stakeholders, there is a need to apply legislative and systems thinking approaches to strengthen governance to withstand this turbulence through a capacity development model that recognizes these contextual and environmental challenges.

Keywords: Good Governance, Systems Theory, Non-profit organizations, stakeholder theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 10