Search results for: mixed models
825 On Consolidated Predictive Model of the Natural History of Breast Cancer Considering Primary Tumor and Secondary Distant Metastases Growth in Patients with Lymph Nodes Metastases
Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov
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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival
Procedia PDF Downloads 302824 Effect of Auraptene on the Enzymatic Glutathione Redox-System in Nrf2 Knockout Mice
Authors: Ludmila A. Gavriliuc, Jerry McLarty, Heather E. Kleiner, J. Michael Mathis
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Abstract -- Background: The citrus coumarine Auraptene (Aur) is an effective chemopreventive agent, as manifested in many models of diseases and cancer. Nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor (Nrf2) is an important regulator of genes induced by oxidative stress, such as glutathione S-transferases, heme oxygenase-1, and peroxiredoxin 1, by activating the antioxidant response element (ARE). Genetic and biochemical evidence has demonstrated that glutathione (GSH) and glutathione-dependent enzymes, glutathione reductase (GR), glutathione peroxidases (GPs), glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) are responsible for the control of intracellular reduction-oxidation status and participate in cellular adaptation to oxidative stress. The effect of Aur on the activity of GR, GPs (Se-GP and Se-iGP), and content of GSH in the liver, kidney, and spleen is insufficiently explored. Aim: Our goal was the examination of the Aur influence on the redox-system of GSH in Nrf2 wild type and Nrf2 knockout mice via activation of Nrf2 and ARE. Methods: Twenty female mice, 10 Nrf2 wild-type (WT) and 10 Nrf2 (-/-) knockout (KO), were bred and genotyped for our study. The activity of GR, Se-GP, Se-iGP, GST, G6PD, CytP450 reductase, catalase (Cat), and content of GSH were analyzed in the liver, kidney, and spleen using Spectrophotometry methods. The results of the specific activity of enzymes and the amount of GSH were analyzed with ANOVA and Spearman statistical methods. Results: Aur (200 mg/kg) treatment induced hepatic GST, GR, Se-GP activity and inhibited their activity in the spleen of mice, most likely via activation of the ARE through Nrf2. Activation in kidney Se-GP and G6PD by Aur is also controlled, apparently through Nrf2. Results of the non-parametric Spearman correlation analysis indicated the strong positive correlation between GR and G6PD only in the liver in WT control mice (r=+0.972; p < 0.005) and in the kidney KO control mice (r=+0.958; p < 0.005). The observed low content of GSH in the liver of KO mice indicated an increase in its participation in the neutralization of toxic substances with the absence of induction of GSH-dependent enzymes, such as GST, GR, Se-GP, and Se-iGP. Activation of CytP450 in kidney and spleen and Cat in the liver in KO mice probably revealed another regulatory mechanism for these enzymes. Conclusion: Thereby, obtained results testify that Aur can modulate the activity of genes and antioxidant enzymatic redox-system of GSH, responsible for the control of intracellular reduction-oxidation status.Keywords: auraptene, glutathione, GST, Nrf2
Procedia PDF Downloads 149823 Analysis and Design of Exo-Skeleton System Based on Multibody Dynamics
Authors: Jatin Gupta, Bishakh Bhattacharya
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With the aging process, many people start suffering from the problem of weak limbs resulting in mobility disorders and loss of sensory and motor function of limbs. Wearable robotic devices are viable solutions to help people suffering from these issues by augmenting their strength. These robotic devices, popularly known as exoskeletons aides user by providing external power and controlling the dynamics so as to achieve desired motion. Present work studies a simplified dynamic model of the human gait. A four link open chain kinematic model is developed to describe the dynamics of Single Support Phase (SSP) of the human gait cycle. The dynamic model is developed integrating mathematical models of the motion of inverted and triple pendulums. Stance leg is modeled as inverted pendulum having single degree of freedom and swing leg as triple pendulum having three degrees of freedom viz. thigh, knee, and ankle joints. The kinematic model is formulated using forward kinematics approach. Lagrangian approach is used to formulate governing dynamic equation of the model. For a system of nonlinear differential equations, numerical method is employed to obtain system response. Reference trajectory is generated using human body simulator, LifeMOD. For optimal mechanical design and controller design of exoskeleton system, it is imperative to study parameter sensitivity of the system. Six different parameters viz. thigh, shank, and foot masses and lengths are varied from 85% to 115% of the original value for the present work. It is observed that hip joint of swing leg is the most sensitive and ankle joint of swing leg is the least sensitive one. Changing link lengths causes more deviation in system response than link masses. Also, shank length and thigh mass are most sensitive parameters. Finally, the present study gives an insight on different factors that should be considered while designing a lower extremity exoskeleton.Keywords: lower limb exoskeleton, multibody dynamics, energy based formulation, optimal design
Procedia PDF Downloads 202822 Low Energy Technology for Leachate Valorisation
Authors: Jesús M. Martín, Francisco Corona, Dolores Hidalgo
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Landfills present long-term threats to soil, air, groundwater and surface water due to the formation of greenhouse gases (methane gas and carbon dioxide) and leachate from decomposing garbage. The composition of leachate differs from site to site and also within the landfill. The leachates alter with time (from weeks to years) since the landfilled waste is biologically highly active and their composition varies. Mainly, the composition of the leachate depends on factors such as characteristics of the waste, the moisture content, climatic conditions, degree of compaction and the age of the landfill. Therefore, the leachate composition cannot be generalized and the traditional treatment models should be adapted in each case. Although leachate composition is highly variable, what different leachates have in common is hazardous constituents and their potential eco-toxicological effects on human health and on terrestrial ecosystems. Since leachate has distinct compositions, each landfill or dumping site would represent a different type of risk on its environment. Nevertheless, leachates consist always of high organic concentration, conductivity, heavy metals and ammonia nitrogen. Leachate could affect the current and future quality of water bodies due to uncontrolled infiltrations. Therefore, control and treatment of leachate is one of the biggest issues in urban solid waste treatment plants and landfills design and management. This work presents a treatment model that will be carried out "in-situ" using a cost-effective novel technology that combines solar evaporation/condensation plus forward osmosis. The plant is powered by renewable energies (solar energy, biomass and residual heat), which will minimize the carbon footprint of the process. The final effluent quality is very high, allowing reuse (preferred) or discharge into watercourses. In the particular case of this work, the final effluents will be reused for cleaning and gardening purposes. A minority semi-solid residual stream is also generated in the process. Due to its special composition (rich in metals and inorganic elements), this stream will be valorized in ceramic industries to improve the final products characteristics.Keywords: forward osmosis, landfills, leachate valorization, solar evaporation
Procedia PDF Downloads 204821 Bionaut™: A Breakthrough Robotic Microdevice to Treat Non-Communicating Hydrocephalus in Both Adult and Pediatric Patients
Authors: Suehyun Cho, Darrell Harrington, Florent Cros, Olin Palmer, John Caputo, Michael Kardosh, Eran Oren, William Loudon, Alex Kiselyov, Michael Shpigelmacher
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Bionaut Labs, LLC is developing a minimally invasive robotic microdevice designed to treat non-communicating hydrocephalus in both adult and pediatric patients. The device utilizes biocompatible microsurgical particles (Bionaut™) that are specifically designed to safely and reliably perform accurate fenestration(s) in the 3rd ventricle, aqueduct of Sylvius, and/or trapped intraventricular cysts of the brain in order to re-establish normal cerebrospinal fluid flow dynamics and thereby balance and/or normalize intra/intercompartmental pressure. The Bionaut™ is navigated to the target via CSF or brain tissue in a minimally invasive fashion with precise control using real-time imaging. Upon reaching the pre-defined anatomical target, the external driver allows for directing the specific microsurgical action defined to achieve the surgical goal. Notable features of the proposed protocol are i) Bionaut™ access to the intraventricular target follows a clinically validated endoscopy trajectory which may not be feasible via ‘traditional’ rigid endoscopy: ii) the treatment is microsurgical, there are no foreign materials left behind post-procedure; iii) Bionaut™ is an untethered device that is navigated through the subarachnoid and intraventricular compartments of the brain, following pre-designated non-linear trajectories as determined by the safest anatomical and physiological path; iv) Overall protocol involves minimally invasive delivery and post-operational retrieval of the surgical Bionaut™. The approach is expected to be suitable to treat pediatric patients 0-12 months old as well as adult patients with obstructive hydrocephalus who fail traditional shunts or are eligible for endoscopy. Current progress, including platform optimization, Bionaut™ control, and real-time imaging and in vivo safety studies of the Bionauts™ in large animals, specifically the spine and the brain of ovine models, will be discussed.Keywords: Bionaut™, cerebrospinal fluid, CSF, fenestration, hydrocephalus, micro-robot, microsurgery
Procedia PDF Downloads 172820 A Local Tensor Clustering Algorithm to Annotate Uncharacterized Genes with Many Biological Networks
Authors: Paul Shize Li, Frank Alber
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A fundamental task of clinical genomics is to unravel the functions of genes and their associations with disorders. Although experimental biology has made efforts to discover and elucidate the molecular mechanisms of individual genes in the past decades, still about 40% of human genes have unknown functions, not to mention the diseases they may be related to. For those biologists who are interested in a particular gene with unknown functions, a powerful computational method tailored for inferring the functions and disease relevance of uncharacterized genes is strongly needed. Studies have shown that genes strongly linked to each other in multiple biological networks are more likely to have similar functions. This indicates that the densely connected subgraphs in multiple biological networks are useful in the functional and phenotypic annotation of uncharacterized genes. Therefore, in this work, we have developed an integrative network approach to identify the frequent local clusters, which are defined as those densely connected subgraphs that frequently occur in multiple biological networks and consist of the query gene that has few or no disease or function annotations. This is a local clustering algorithm that models multiple biological networks sharing the same gene set as a three-dimensional matrix, the so-called tensor, and employs the tensor-based optimization method to efficiently find the frequent local clusters. Specifically, massive public gene expression data sets that comprehensively cover dynamic, physiological, and environmental conditions are used to generate hundreds of gene co-expression networks. By integrating these gene co-expression networks, for a given uncharacterized gene that is of biologist’s interest, the proposed method can be applied to identify the frequent local clusters that consist of this uncharacterized gene. Finally, those frequent local clusters are used for function and disease annotation of this uncharacterized gene. This local tensor clustering algorithm outperformed the competing tensor-based algorithm in both module discovery and running time. We also demonstrated the use of the proposed method on real data of hundreds of gene co-expression data and showed that it can comprehensively characterize the query gene. Therefore, this study provides a new tool for annotating the uncharacterized genes and has great potential to assist clinical genomic diagnostics.Keywords: local tensor clustering, query gene, gene co-expression network, gene annotation
Procedia PDF Downloads 170819 How Childhood Trauma Changes the Recovery Models
Authors: John Michael Weber
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The following research results spanned six months and 175 people addicted to some form of substance, from alcohol to heroin. One question was asked, and the answers were amazing and consistent. The following work is the detailed results of this writer’s answer to his own question and the 175 that followed. A constant pattern took shape throughout the bio-psycho-social assessments, these addicts had “first memories,” the memories were vivid and took place between the ages of three to six years old, to a person those first memories were traumatic. This writer’s personal search into his childhood was not to find an excuse for the way he became, but to explain the reason for becoming an addict. To treat addiction, these memories that have caused Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), must be recognized as the catalyst that sparked a predisposition. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), integrated with treatment specifically focused on PTSD, gives the addict a better chance at recovery sans relapse. This paper seeks to give the findings of first memories of the addicts assessed and provide the best treatment plan for such an addict, considering, the childhood trauma in congruence with treatment of the Substance Use Disorder (SUD). The question posed was concerning what their first life memory wa It is the hope of this author to take the knowledge that trauma is one of the main catalysts for addiction, will allow therapists to provide better treatment and reduce relapse from abstinence from drugs and alcohol. This research led this author to believe that if treatment of childhood trauma is not a priority, the twelve steps of Alcoholics Anonymous, specifically steps 4 and 5, will not be thoroughly addressed and odds for relapse increase. With this knowledge, parents can be educated on childhood trauma and the effect it has on their children. Parents could be mindful of the fact that the things they perceive as traumatic, do not match what a child, in the developmental years, absorbs as traumatic. It is this author’s belief that what has become the status quo in treatment facilities has not been working for a long time. It is for that reason this author believes things need to change. Relapse has been woven into the fabric of standard operating procedure and that, in this authors view, is not necessary. Childhood Trauma is not being addressed early in recovery and that creates an environment of inevitable relapse. This paper will explore how to break away from the status -quo and rethink the current “evidencebased treatments.” To begin breaking away from status-quo, this ends the Abstract, with hopes an interest has been peaked to read on.Keywords: childood, trauma, treatment, addiction, change
Procedia PDF Downloads 80818 Developing Allometric Equations for More Accurate Aboveground Biomass and Carbon Estimation in Secondary Evergreen Forests, Thailand
Authors: Titinan Pothong, Prasit Wangpakapattanawong, Stephen Elliott
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Shifting cultivation is an indigenous agricultural practice among upland people and has long been one of the major land-use systems in Southeast Asia. As a result, fallows and secondary forests have come to cover a large part of the region. However, they are increasingly being replaced by monocultures, such as corn cultivation. This is believed to be a main driver of deforestation and forest degradation, and one of the reasons behind the recurring winter smog crisis in Thailand and around Southeast Asia. Accurate biomass estimation of trees is important to quantify valuable carbon stocks and changes to these stocks in case of land use change. However, presently, Thailand lacks proper tools and optimal equations to quantify its carbon stocks, especially for secondary evergreen forests, including fallow areas after shifting cultivation and smaller trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) of less than 5 cm. Developing new allometric equations to estimate biomass is urgently needed to accurately estimate and manage carbon storage in tropical secondary forests. This study established new equations using a destructive method at three study sites: approximately 50-year-old secondary forest, 4-year-old fallow, and 7-year-old fallow. Tree biomass was collected by harvesting 136 individual trees (including coppiced trees) from 23 species, with a DBH ranging from 1 to 31 cm. Oven-dried samples were sent for carbon analysis. Wood density was calculated from disk samples and samples collected with an increment borer from 79 species, including 35 species currently missing from the Global Wood Densities database. Several models were developed, showing that aboveground biomass (AGB) was strongly related to DBH, height (H), and wood density (WD). Including WD in the model was found to improve the accuracy of the AGB estimation. This study provides insights for reforestation management, and can be used to prepare baseline data for Thailand’s carbon stocks for the REDD+ and other carbon trading schemes. These may provide monetary incentives to stop illegal logging and deforestation for monoculture.Keywords: aboveground biomass, allometric equation, carbon stock, secondary forest
Procedia PDF Downloads 285817 Extracting Plowing Forces for Aluminum 6061-T6 Using a Small Number of Drilling Experiments
Authors: Ilige S. Hage, Charbel Y. Seif
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Forces measured during cutting operations are generated by the cutting process and include parasitic forces, known as edge forces. A fraction of these measured forces arises from the tertiary cutting zone, such as flank or edge forces. Most machining models are designed for sharp tools; where edge forces represent the portion of the measured forces associated with deviations of the tool from an ideal sharp geometry. Flank forces are challenging to isolate. The most common method involves plotting the force at a constant cutting speed against uncut chip thickness and then extrapolating to zero feed. The resulting positive intercept on the vertical axis is identified as the edge or plowing force. The aim of this research is to identify the effect of tool rake angle and cutting speeds on flank forces and to develop a force model as a function of tool rake angle and cutting speed for predicting plowing forces. Edge forces were identified based on a limited number of drilling experiments using a 10 mm twist drill, where lip edge cutting forces were collected from 2.5 mm pre-cored samples. Cutting lip forces were measured with feed rates varying from 0.04 to 0.64 mm/rev and spindle speeds ranging from 796 to 9868 rpm, at a sampling rate of 200 Hz. By using real-time force measurements as the drill enters the workpiece, this study provides an economical method for analyzing the effect of tool geometry and cutting conditions on generated cutting forces, reducing the number of required experimental setups. As a result, an empirical model predicting parasitic edge forces was developed function of the cutting velocity, tool rake angle, and clearance angle along the lip of the tool, demonstrating strong agreement with edge forces reported in the literature for Aluminum 6061-T6. The model achieved an R2 value of 0.92 and a mean square error of 4%, validating the accuracy of the proposed methodology. The presented methodology leverages variations in machining parameters. This approach contrasts with traditional machining experiments, where the turning process typically serves as the basis for force measurements and each experimental setup is characterized by a single cutting velocity, tool rake angle, and clearance angle.Keywords: drilling, plowing, edge forces, cutting force, torque
Procedia PDF Downloads 3816 Effects of Intergenerational Social Mobility on General Health, Oral Health and Physical Function among Older Adults in England
Authors: Alejandra Letelier, Anja Heilmann, Richard G. Watt, Stephen Jivraj, Georgios Tsakos
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Background: Socioeconomic position (SEP) influences adult health. People who experienced material disadvantages in childhood or adulthood tend to have higher adult disease levels than their peers from more advantaged backgrounds. Even so, life is a dynamic process and contains a series of transitions that could lead people through different socioeconomic paths. Research on social mobility takes this into account by adopting a trajectory approach, thereby providing a long-term view of the effect of SEP on health. Aim: The aim of this research examines the effects of intergenerational social mobility on adult general health, oral health and functioning in a population aged 50 and over in England. Methods: This study is based on the secondary analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Using cross-sectional data, nine social trajectories were created based on parental and adult occupational socio-economic position. Regression models were used to estimate the associations between social trajectories and the following outcomes: adult self-rated health, self-rated oral health, oral health related quality of life, total tooth loss and grip strength; while controlling for socio-economic background and health related behaviours. Results: Associations with adult SEP were generally stronger than with childhood SEP, suggesting a stronger influence of proximal rather than distal SEP on health and oral health. Compared to the stable high group, being in the low SEP groups in childhood and adulthood was associated with poorer health and oral health for all examined outcome measures. For adult self-rated health and edentulousness, graded associations with social mobility trajectories were observed. Conclusion: Intergenerational social mobility was associated with self-rated health and total tooth loss. Compared to only those who remained in a low SEP group over time reported worse self-rated oral health and oral health related quality of life, and had lower grip strength measurements. Potential limitations in relation to data quality will be discussed.Keywords: social determinants of oral health, social mobility, socioeconomic position and oral health, older adults oral health
Procedia PDF Downloads 276815 Preventive Impact of Regional Analgesia on Chronic Neuropathic Pain After General Surgery
Authors: Beloulou Mohamed Lamine, Fedili Benamar, Meliani Walid, Chaid Dalila, Lamara Abdelhak
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Introduction: Post-surgical chronic pain (PSCP) is a pathological condition with a rather complex etiopathogenesis that extensively involves sensitization processes and neuronal damage. The neuropathic component of these pains is almost always present, with variable expression depending on the type of surgery. Objective: To assess the presumed beneficial effect of Regional Anesthesia-Analgesia Techniques (RAAT) on the development of post-surgical chronic neuropathic pain (PSCNP) in various surgical procedures. Patients and Methods: A comparative study involving 510 patients distributed across five surgical models (mastectomy, thoracotomy, hernioplasty, cholecystectomy, and major abdominal-pelvic surgery) and randomized into two groups: Group A (240) receiving conventional postoperative analgesia and Group B (270) receiving balanced analgesia, including the implementation of a Regional Anesthesia-Analgesia Technique (RAAT). These patients were longitudinally followed over a 6-month period, with postsurgical chronic neuropathic pain (PSCNP) defined by a Neuropathic Pain Score DN2≥ 3. Comparative measurements through univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify associations between the development of PSCNP and certain predictive factors, including the presumed preventive impact (protective effect) of RAAT. Results: At the 6th month post-surgery, 419 patients were analyzed (Group A= 196 and Group B= 223). The incidence of PSCNP was 32.2% (n=135). Among these patients with chronic pain, the prevalence of neuropathic pain was 37.8% (95% CI: [29.6; 46.5]), with n=51/135. It was significantly lower in Group B compared to Group A, with respective percentages of 31.4% vs. 48.8% (p-value = 0.035). The most significant differences were observed in breast and thoracopulmonary surgeries. In a multiple regression analysis, two predictors of PSCNP were identified: the presence of preoperative pain at the surgical site as a risk factor (OR: 3.198; 95% CI [1.326; 7.714]) and RAAT as a protective factor (OR: 0.408; 95% CI [0.173; 0.961]). Conclusion: The neuropathic component of PSCNP can be observed in different types of surgeries. Regional analgesia included in a multimodal approach to postoperative pain management has proven to be effective for acute pain and seems to have a preventive impact on the development of PSCNP and its neuropathic nature, particularly in surgeries that are more prone to chronicization.Keywords: post-surgical chronic pain, post-surgical chronic neuropathic pain, regional anesthesia-analgesia techniques, neuropathic pain score DN2, preventive impact
Procedia PDF Downloads 78814 Heritage and the Sustainable Development Goals: Successful Practices and Lessons Learnt from the Uk’s Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Research Portfolios
Authors: Francesca Giliberto
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Heritage and culture, in general, plays a central role in addressing the complexity and broad variety of global development challenges, ranging from environmental degradation and refugee and humanitarian crisis to extreme poverty, food insecurity, persisting inequalities, and unsustainable urbanisation, just to mention some examples. Nevertheless, the potential of harnessing heritage to address global challenges has remained largely under-represented and underestimated in the most recent international development agenda adopted by the United Nations in 2015 (2030 Agenda). Among the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and 169 associated targets established, only target 11.4 explicitly mentions heritage, stating that efforts should be strengthened “to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage in order to make our cities safe, resilient, and sustainable”. However, this global target continues to reflect a rather limited approach to heritage for development. This paper will provide a critical reflection on the contribution that using (tangible and intangible) heritage in international research can make to tackling global challenges and supporting the achievement of all the SDGs. It will present key findings and insights from the heritage strand of PRAXIS, a research project from the University of Leeds, which focuses on Arts and Humanities research across 300+ projects funded through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund. In particular, this paper will shed light on successful practices and lessons learned from 87 research projects funded through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund portfolios in 49 countries eligible for Official Development Assistance (ODA) between 2014 and 2021. Research data were collected through a desk assessment of project data available on UKRI Gateway to Research, online surveys, and qualitative interviews with research principal investigators and partners. The findings of this research provide evidence of how heritage and heritage research can foster innovative, interdisciplinary, inclusive, and transformative sustainable development and the achievement of the SDGs in ODA countries and beyond. This paper also highlights current challenges and research gaps that still need to be overcome to rethink current approaches and transform our development models to be more integrated, human-centred, and sustainable.Keywords: global challenges, heritage, international research, sustainable development
Procedia PDF Downloads 74813 Simulated Translator-Client Relations in Translator Training: Translator Behavior around Risk Management
Authors: Maggie Hui
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Risk management is not a new concept; however, it is an uncharted area as applied to the translation process and translator training. Risk managers are responsible for managing risk, i.e. adopting strategies with the intention to minimize loss and maximize gains in spite of uncertainty. Which risk strategy to use often depends on the frequency of an event (i.e. probability) and the severity of its outcomes (i.e. impact). This is basically the way translation/localization project managers handle risk management. Although risk management could involve both positive and negative impacts, impact seems to be always negative in professional translators’ management models, e.g. how many days of project time are lost or how many clients are lost. However, for analysis of translation performance, the impact should be possibly positive (e.g. increased readability of the translation) or negative (e.g. loss of source-text information). In other words, the straight business model of risk management is not directly applicable to the study of risk management in the rendition process. This research aims to explore trainee translators’ risk managing while translating in a simulated setting that involves translator-client relations. A two-cycle experiment involving two roles, the translator and the simulated client, was carried out with a class of translation students to test the effects of the main variable of peer-group interaction. The researcher made use of a user-friendly screen-voice recording freeware to record subjects’ screen activities, including every word the translator typed and every change they made to the rendition, the websites they browsed and the reference tools they used, in addition to the verbalization of their thoughts throughout the process. The research observes the translation procedures subjects considered and finally adopted, and looks into the justifications for their procedures, in order to interpret their risk management. The qualitative and quantitative results of this study have some implications for translator training: (a) the experience of being a client seems to reinforce the translator’s risk aversion; (b) there is a wide gap between the translator’s internal risk management and their external presentation of risk; and (c) the use of role-playing simulation can empower students’ learning by enhancing their attitudinal or psycho-physiological competence, interpersonal competence and strategic competence.Keywords: risk management, role-playing simulation, translation pedagogy, translator-client relations
Procedia PDF Downloads 262812 Analyzing the Connection between Productive Structure and Communicable Diseases: An Econometric Panel Study
Authors: Julio Silva, Lia Hasenclever, Gilson G. Silva Jr.
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The aim of this paper is to check possible convergence in health measures (aged-standard rate of morbidity and mortality) for communicable diseases between developed and developing countries, conditional to productive structures features. Understanding the interrelations between health patterns and economic development is particularly important in the context of low- and middle-income countries, where economic development comes along with deep social inequality. Developing countries with less diversified productive structures (measured through complexity index) but high heterogeneous inter-sectorial labor productivity (using as a proxy inter-sectorial coefficient of variation of labor productivity) has on average low health levels in communicable diseases compared to developed countries with high diversified productive structures and low labor market heterogeneity. Structural heterogeneity and productive diversification may have influence on health levels even considering per capita income. We set up a panel data for 139 countries from 1995 to 2015, joining several data about the countries, as economic development, health, and health system coverage, environmental and socioeconomic aspects. This information was obtained from World Bank, International Labour Organization, Atlas of Economic Complexity, United Nation (Development Report) and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Database. Econometric panel models evidence shows that the level of communicable diseases has a positive relationship with structural heterogeneity, even considering other factors as per capita income. On the other hand, the recent process of convergence in terms of communicable diseases have been motivated for other reasons not directly related to productive structure, as health system coverage and environmental aspects. These evidences suggest a joint dynamics between the unequal distribution of communicable diseases and countries' productive structure aspects. These set of evidence are quite important to public policy as meet the health aims in Millennium Development Goals. It also highlights the importance of the process of structural change as fundamental to shift the levels of health in terms of communicable diseases and can contribute to the debate between the relation of economic development and health patterns changes.Keywords: economic development, inequality, population health, structural change
Procedia PDF Downloads 146811 An Overview of the Wind and Wave Climate in the Romanian Nearshore
Authors: Liliana Rusu
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The goal of the proposed work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind and wave climate in the Romanian nearshore, using the results provided by numerical models. The Romanian coastal environment is located in the western side of the Black Sea, the more energetic part of the sea, an area with heavy maritime traffic and various offshore operations. Information about the wind and wave climate in the Romanian waters is mainly based on observations at Gloria drilling platform (70 km from the coast). As regards the waves, the measurements of the wave characteristics are not so accurate due to the method used, being also available for a limited period. For this reason, the wave simulations that cover large temporal and spatial scales represent an option to describe better the wave climate. To assess the wind climate in the target area spanning 1992–2016, data provided by the NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and consisting in wind fields at 10m above the sea level are used. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the wind fields is good enough to represent the wind variability over the area. For the same 25-year period, as considered for the wind climate, this study characterizes the wave climate from a wave hindcast data set that uses NCEP-CFSR winds as input for a model system SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) based. The wave simulation results with a two-level modelling scale have been validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data. The second level of the system, with a higher resolution in the geographical space (0.02°×0.02°), is focused on the Romanian coastal environment. The main wave parameters simulated at this level are used to analyse the wave climate. The spatial distributions of the wind speed, wind direction and the mean significant wave height have been computed as the average of the total data. As resulted from the amount of data, the target area presents a generally moderate wave climate that is affected by the storm events developed in the Black Sea basin. Both wind and wave climate presents high seasonal variability. All the results are computed as maps that help to find the more dangerous areas. A local analysis has been also employed in some key locations corresponding to highly sensitive areas, as for example the main Romanian harbors.Keywords: numerical simulations, Romanian nearshore, waves, wind
Procedia PDF Downloads 345810 Computer-Assisted Management of Building Climate and Microgrid with Model Predictive Control
Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak
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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.Keywords: price-optimal building climate control, Microgrid power flow optimisation, hierarchical model predictive control, energy efficient buildings, energy market participation
Procedia PDF Downloads 467809 Ant-Tracking Attribute: A Model for Understanding Production Response
Authors: Prince Suka Neekia Momta, Rita Iheoma Achonyeulo
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Ant Tracking seismic attribute applied over 4-seconds seismic volume revealed structural features triggered by clay diapirism, growth fault development, rapid deltaic sedimentation and intense drilling. The attribute was extracted on vertical seismic sections and time slices. Mega tectonic structures such as growth faults and clay diapirs are visible on vertical sections with obscured minor lineaments or fractures. Fractures are distinctively visible on time slices yielding recognizable patterns corroborating established geologic models. This model seismic attribute enabled the understanding of fluid flow characteristics and production responses. Three structural patterns recognized in the field include: major growth faults, minor faults or lineaments and network of fractures. Three growth faults mapped on seismic section form major deformation bands delimiting the area into three blocks or depocenters. The growth faults trend E-W, dip down-to-south in the basin direction, and cut across the study area. The faults initiating from about 2000ms extended up to 500ms, and tend to progress parallel and opposite to the growth direction of an upsurging diapiric structure. The diapiric structures form the major deformational bands originating from great depths (below 2000ms) and rising to about 1200ms where series of sedimentary layers onlapped and pinchout stratigraphically against the diapir. Several other secondary faults or lineaments that form parallel streaks to one another also accompanied the growth faults. The fracture networks have no particular trend but form a network surrounding the well area. Faults identified in the study area have potentials for structural hydrocarbon traps whereas the presence of fractures created a fractured-reservoir condition that enhanced rapid fluid flow especially water. High aquifer flow potential aided by possible fracture permeability resulted in rapid decline in oil rate. Through the application of Ant Tracking attribute, it is possible to obtain detailed interpretation of structures that can have direct influence on oil and gas production.Keywords: seismic, attributes, production, structural
Procedia PDF Downloads 74808 Evaluation of Reservoir Quality in Cretaceous Sandstone Complex, Western Flank of Anambra Basin, Southern Nigeria
Authors: Bayole Omoniyi
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This study demonstrates the value of outcrops as analogues for evaluating reservoir quality of sandbody in a typical high-sinuosity fluvial system. The study utilized data acquired from selected outcrops in the Campanian-Maastrichtian siliciclastic succession of the western flank of Anambra Basin, southern Nigeria. Textural properties derived from outcrop samples were correlated and compared with porosity and permeability using established standard charts. Porosity was estimated from thin sections of selected samples to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. Following facies classification, 14 distinct facies were grouped into three facies associations (FA1-FA3) and were subsequently modeled as discrete properties in a block-centered Cartesian grid on a scale that captures geometry of principal sandbodies. Porosity and permeability estimated from charts were populated in the grid using comparable geostatistical techniques that reflect their spatial distribution. The resultant models were conditioned to facies property to honour available data. The results indicate a strong control of geometrical parameters on facies distribution, lateral continuity and connectivity with resultant effect on porosity and permeability distribution. Sand-prone FA1 and FA2 display reservoir quality that varies internally from channel axis to margin in each succession. Furthermore, isolated stack pattern of sandbodies reduces static connectivity and thus, increases risk of poor communication between reservoir-quality sandbodies. FA3 is non-reservoir because it is mud-prone. In conclusion, the risk of poor communication between sandbodies may be effectively accentuated in reservoirs that have similar architecture because of thick lateral accretion deposits, usually mudstone, that tend to disconnect good-quality point-bar sandbodies. In such reservoirs, mudstone may act as a barrier to impede flow vertically from one sandbody to another and laterally at the margins of each channel-fill succession in the system. The development plan, therefore, must be designed to effectively mitigate these risks and the risk of stratigraphic compartmentalization for maximum hydrocarbon recovery.Keywords: analogues, architecture, connectivity, fluvial
Procedia PDF Downloads 27807 AIR SAFE: an Internet of Things System for Air Quality Management Leveraging Artificial Intelligence Algorithms
Authors: Mariangela Viviani, Daniele Germano, Simone Colace, Agostino Forestiero, Giuseppe Papuzzo, Sara Laurita
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Nowadays, people spend most of their time in closed environments, in offices, or at home. Therefore, secure and highly livable environmental conditions are needed to reduce the probability of aerial viruses spreading. Also, to lower the human impact on the planet, it is important to reduce energy consumption. Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the major part of energy consumption in buildings [1]. Devising systems to control and regulate the airflow is, therefore, essential for energy efficiency. Moreover, an optimal setting for thermal comfort and air quality is essential for people’s well-being, at home or in offices, and increases productivity. Thanks to the features of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools and techniques, it is possible to design innovative systems with: (i) Improved monitoring and prediction accuracy; (ii) Enhanced decision-making and mitigation strategies; (iii) Real-time air quality information; (iv) Increased efficiency in data analysis and processing; (v) Advanced early warning systems for air pollution events; (vi) Automated and cost-effective m onitoring network; and (vii) A better understanding of air quality patterns and trends. We propose AIR SAFE, an IoT-based infrastructure designed to optimize air quality and thermal comfort in indoor environments leveraging AI tools. AIR SAFE employs a network of smart sensors collecting indoor and outdoor data to be analyzed in order to take any corrective measures to ensure the occupants’ wellness. The data are analyzed through AI algorithms able to predict the future levels of temperature, relative humidity, and CO₂ concentration [2]. Based on these predictions, AIR SAFE takes actions, such as opening/closing the window or the air conditioner, to guarantee a high level of thermal comfort and air quality in the environment. In this contribution, we present the results from the AI algorithm we have implemented on the first s et o f d ata c ollected i n a real environment. The results were compared with other models from the literature to validate our approach.Keywords: air quality, internet of things, artificial intelligence, smart home
Procedia PDF Downloads 94806 Reconstruction of Performace-Based Budgeting in Indonesian Local Government: Application of Soft Systems Methodology in Producing Guideline for Policy Implementation
Authors: Deddi Nordiawan
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Effective public policy creation required a strong budget system, both in terms of design and implementation. Performance-based Budget is an evolutionary approach with two substantial characteristics; first, the strong integration between budgeting and planning, and second, its existence as guidance so that all activities and expenditures refer to measurable performance targets. There are four processes in the government that should be followed in order to make the budget become performance-based. These four processes consist of the preparation of a vision according to the bold aspiration, the formulation of outcome, the determination of output based on the analysis of organizational resources, and the formulation of Value Creation Map that contains a series of programs and activities. This is consistent with the concept of logic model which revealed that the budget performance should be placed within a relational framework of resources, activities, outputs, outcomes and impacts. Through the issuance of Law 17/2003 regarding State Finance, local governments in Indonesia have to implement performance-based budget. Central Government then issued Government Regulation 58/2005 which contains the detail guidelines how to prepare local governments budget. After a decade, implementation of performance budgeting in local government is still not fully meet expectations, though the guidance is completed, socialization routinely performed, and trainings have also been carried out at all levels. Accordingly, this study views the practice of performance-based budget at local governments as a problematic situation. This condition must be approached with a system approach that allows the solutions from many point of views. Based on the fact that the infrastructure of budgeting has already settled, the study then considering the situation as complexity. Therefore, the intervention needs to be done in the area of human activity system. Using Soft Systems Methodology, this research will reconstruct the process of performance-based budget at local governments is area of human activity system. Through conceptual models, this study will invite all actors (central government, local government, and the parliament) for dialogue and formulate interventions in human activity systems that systematically desirable and culturally feasible. The result will direct central government in revise the guidance to local government budgeting process as well as a reference to build the capacity building strategy.Keywords: soft systems methodology, performance-based budgeting, Indonesia, public policy
Procedia PDF Downloads 253805 Carbon Nanotube-Based Catalyst Modification to Improve Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Interlayer Interactions
Authors: Ling Ai, Ziyu Zhao, Zeyu Zhou, Xiaochen Yang, Heng Zhai, Stuart Holmes
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Optimizing the catalyst layer structure is crucial for enhancing the performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) with low Platinum (Pt) loading. Current works focused on the utilization, durability, and site activity of Pt particles on support, and performance enhancement has been achieved by loading Pt onto porous support with different morphology, such as graphene, carbon fiber, and carbon black. Some schemes have also incorporated cost considerations to achieve lower Pt loading. However, the design of the catalyst layer (CL) structure in the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) must consider the interactions between the layers. Addressing the crucial aspects of water management, low contact resistance, and the establishment of effective three-phase boundary for MEA, multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) are promising CL support due to their intrinsically high hydrophobicity, high axial electrical conductivity, and potential for ordered alignment. However, the drawbacks of MWCNTs, such as strong agglomeration, wall surface chemical inertness, and unopened ends, are unfavorable for Pt nanoparticle loading, which is detrimental to MEA processing and leads to inhomogeneous CL surfaces. This further deteriorates the utilization of Pt and increases the contact resistance. Robust chemical oxidation or nitrogen doping can introduce polar functional groups onto the surface of MWCNTs, facilitating the creation of open tube ends and inducing defects in tube walls. This improves dispersibility and load capacity but reduces length and conductivity. Consequently, a trade-off exists between maintaining the intrinsic properties and the degree of functionalization of MWCNTs. In this work, MWCNTs were modified based on the operational requirements of the MEA from the viewpoint of interlayer interactions, including the search for the optimal degree of oxidation, N-doping, and micro-arrangement. MWCNT were functionalized by oxidizing, N-doping, as well as micro-alignment to achieve lower contact resistance between CL and proton exchange membrane (PEM), better hydrophobicity, and enhanced performance. Furthermore, this work expects to construct a more continuously distributed three-phase boundary by aligning MWCNT to form a locally ordered structure, which is essential for the efficient utilization of Pt active sites. Different from other chemical oxidation schemes that used HNO3:H2SO4 (1:3) mixed acid to strongly oxidize MWCNT, this scheme adopted pure HNO3 to partially oxidize MWCNT at a lower reflux temperature (80 ℃) and a shorter treatment time (0 to 10 h) to preserve the morphology and intrinsic conductivity of MWCNT. The maximum power density of 979.81 mw cm-2 was achieved by Pt loading on 6h MWCNT oxidation time (Pt-MWCNT6h). This represented a 59.53% improvement over the commercial Pt/C catalyst of 614.17 (mw cm-2). In addition, due to the stronger electrical conductivity, the charge transfer resistance of Pt-MWCNT6h in the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) test was 0.09 Ohm cm-2, which was 48.86% lower than that of Pt/C. This study will discuss the developed catalysts and their efficacy in a working fuel cell system. This research will validate the impact of low-functionalization modification of MWCNTs on the performance of PEMFC, which simplifies the preparation challenges of CL and contributing for the widespread commercial application of PEMFCs on a larger scale.Keywords: carbon nanotubes, electrocatalyst, membrane electrode assembly, proton exchange membrane fuel cell
Procedia PDF Downloads 77804 Effects of Covid-19 pandemic in Japan on Japanese People’s and Expatriates’ Lifestyles
Authors: Noriyuki Suyama
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This paper looked into consumer behavioral changes by analyzing the data collected by ASMARKS Co., one of a research companies in Japan. The purpose of the paper is to understand the two differences of before vs. after COVID-19 pandemic and Japanese living in Japan. Subsequently, examining the analysis results helped obtain useful insights into new business models for business parties in Japan as a microlevel perspective. The paper also tried to explore future conditions of globalization by taking into consideration nation’s political and economic changes as a macro-level perspective. The COVID-19 has been continuing its spread across the world with more than 60 million confirmed cases in 190 countries. This pandemic with restricted scopes of behavior mandates have disrupted the consumer habits of their lifestyles. Consumers have tendency to learn new ways when they have trouble in taking routine action. For example, the government forces people to refrain from going out, they try to telecommute at home. If the situation come back to normal, people still change their lifestyles to fit in the best. Some of data show typical effects of COVID-19; forceful exposure to digitalized work-life styles; more flexible time at home; importance of trustful and useful information gathering between what's good and bad;etc. in comparison with before vs. after COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, Japanese have less changed their lifestyles than Expatriates living in Japan. For example, while 94% of the expatriates have decreased their outgo because of self-quarantine, only 55% of the Japanese have done. There are more differences in both comparisons in the analysis results. The economic downtrend resulting from COVID-19 is supposed to be at least as devastating if not more so than that of the financial crisis. With unemployment levels in the US taking two weeks to reach what took 6 months in the 2008 crisis, there is no doubt of a global recession some predict could reach 10% or above of GDP. As a result, globalization in the global supply chain of goods and services will end up with negative impact. A lot of governmental financial and economic policies are supposed to focus on their own profits and interests, exclusing other countries interests as is the case with the Recovery Act just after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008. Both micro- and macro-levels analysis successfully reveal important connotations and managerial implications of business in Japan for Japanese consumers as well as after COVID-19 global business.Keywords: COVID-19, lifestyle in Japan, expatriates, consumer behavior
Procedia PDF Downloads 141803 Exploring the Applicability of a Rapid Health Assessment in India
Authors: Claudia Carbajal, Jija Dutt, Smriti Pahwa, Sumukhi Vaid, Karishma Vats
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ASER Centre, the research and assessment arm of Pratham Education Foundation sees measurement as the first stage of action. ASER uses primary research to push and give empirical foundations to policy discussions at a multitude of levels. At a household level, common citizens use a simple assessment (a floor-level test) to measure learning across rural India. This paper presents the evidence on the applicability of an ASER approach to the health sector. A citizen-led assessment was designed and executed that collected information from young mothers with children up to a year of age. The pilot assessments were rolled-out in two different models: Paid surveyors and student volunteers. The survey covered three geographic areas: 1,239 children in the Jaipur District of Rajasthan, 2,086 in the Rae Bareli District of Uttar Pradesh, and 593 children in the Bhuj Block in Gujarat. The survey tool was designed to study knowledge of health-related issues, daily practices followed by young mothers and access to relevant services and programs. It provides insights on behaviors related to infant and young child feeding practices, child and maternal nutrition and supplementation, water and sanitation, and health services. Moreover, the survey studies the reasons behind behaviors giving policy-makers actionable pathways to improve implementation of social sector programs. Although data on health outcomes are available, this approach could provide a rapid annual assessment of health issues with indicators that are easy to understand and act upon so that measurements do not become an exclusive domain of experts. The results give many insights into early childhood health behaviors and challenges. Around 98% of children are breastfed, and approximately half are not exclusively breastfed (for the first 6 months). Government established diet diversity guidelines are met for less than 1 out of 10 children. Although most households are satisfied with the quality of drinking water, most tested households had contaminated water.Keywords: citizen-led assessment, rapid health assessment, Infant and Young Children Feeding, water and sanitation, maternal nutrition, supplementation
Procedia PDF Downloads 170802 Modern Agriculture and Employment Generation in Nigeria: A Recursive Model Approach
Authors: Ese Urhie, Olabisi Popoola, Obindah Gershon
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Several policies and programs initiated to address the challenge of unemployment in Nigeria seem to be inadequate. The desired structural transformation which is expected to absorb the excess labour in the economy is yet to be achieved. The agricultural sector accounts for almost half of the labour force with very low productivity. This could partly explain why the much anticipated structural transformation has not been achieved. A major reason for the low productivity is the fact that the production process is predominantly based on the use of traditional tools. In view of the underdeveloped nature of the agricultural sector, Nigeria still has huge potentials for productivity enhancement through modern technology. Aside from productivity enhancement, modern agriculture also stimulates both backward and forward linkages that promote investment and thus generate employment. Contrary to the apprehension usually expressed by many stake-holders about the adoption of modern technology by labour-abundant less-developed countries, this study showed that though there will be job loss initially, the reverse will be the case in the long-run. The outcome of this study will enhance the understanding of all stakeholders in the sector and also encourage them to adopt modern techniques of farming. It will also aid policy formulation at both sectoral and national levels. The recursive model and analysis adopted in the study is useful because it exhibits a unilateral cause-and-effect relationship which most simultaneous equation models do not. It enables the structural equations to be ordered in such a way that the first equation includes only predetermined variables on the right-hand side, while the solution for the final endogenous variable is completely determined by all equations of the system. The study examines the transmission channels and effect of modern agriculture on agricultural productivity and employment growth in Nigeria, via its forward and backward linkages. Using time series data spanning 1980 to 2014, the result of the analyses shows that: (i) a significant and positive relationship between agricultural productivity growth and modern agriculture; (ii) a significant and negative relationship between export price index and agricultural productivity growth; (iii) a significant and positive relationship between export and investment; and (iv) a significant and positive relationship between investment and employment growth. The unbalanced growth theory will be a good strategy to adopt by developing countries such as Nigeria.Keywords: employment, modern agriculture, productivity, recursive model
Procedia PDF Downloads 269801 Optimal Data Selection in Non-Ergodic Systems: A Tradeoff between Estimator Convergence and Representativeness Errors
Authors: Jakob Krause
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Past Financial Crisis has shown that contemporary risk management models provide an unjustified sense of security and fail miserably in situations in which they are needed the most. In this paper, we start from the assumption that risk is a notion that changes over time and therefore past data points only have limited explanatory power for the current situation. Our objective is to derive the optimal amount of representative information by optimizing between the two adverse forces of estimator convergence, incentivizing us to use as much data as possible, and the aforementioned non-representativeness doing the opposite. In this endeavor, the cornerstone assumption of having access to identically distributed random variables is weakened and substituted by the assumption that the law of the data generating process changes over time. Hence, in this paper, we give a quantitative theory on how to perform statistical analysis in non-ergodic systems. As an application, we discuss the impact of a paragraph in the last iteration of proposals by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation. We start from the premise that the severity of assumptions should correspond to the robustness of the system they describe. Hence, in the formal description of physical systems, the level of assumptions can be much higher. It follows that every concept that is carried over from the natural sciences to economics must be checked for its plausibility in the new surroundings. Most of the probability theory has been developed for the analysis of physical systems and is based on the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. In Economics both parts of the i.i.d. assumption are inappropriate. However, only dependence has, so far, been weakened to a sufficient degree. In this paper, an appropriate class of non-stationary processes is used, and their law is tied to a formal object measuring representativeness. Subsequently, that data set is identified that on average minimizes the estimation error stemming from both, insufficient and non-representative, data. Applications are far reaching in a variety of fields. In the paper itself, we apply the results in order to analyze a paragraph in the Basel 3 framework on banking regulation with severe implications on financial stability. Beyond the realm of finance, other potential applications include the reproducibility crisis in the social sciences (but not in the natural sciences) and modeling limited understanding and learning behavior in economics.Keywords: banking regulation, non-ergodicity, risk management, semimartingale modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 149800 Aerosol Radiative Forcing Over Indian Subcontinent for 2000-2021 Using Satellite Observations
Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sushovan Ghosh, Sagnik Dey
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Aerosols directly affect Earth’s radiation budget by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. While the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) has decreased over the years, it is still higher than that of greenhouse gas forcing, particularly in the South Asian region, due to high heterogeneity in their chemical properties. Understanding the Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of aerosol composition is critical in improving climate prediction. Studies using satellite data, in-situ and aircraft measurements, and models have investigated the Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol characteristics. In this study, we have taken aerosol data from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) level-2 version 23 aerosol products retrieved at 4.4 km and radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 21 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. MISR aerosol product includes size and shapes segregated aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA). Additionally, 74 aerosol mixtures are included in version 23 data that is used for aerosol speciation. We have seasonally mapped aerosol optical and microphysical properties from MISR for India at quarter degrees resolution. Results show strong Spatio-temporal variability, with a constant higher value of AOD for the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The contribution of small-size particles is higher throughout the year, spatially during winter months. SSA is found to be overestimated where absorbing particles are present. The climatological map of short wave (SW) ARF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) shows a strong cooling except in only a few places (values ranging from +2.5o to -22.5o). Cooling due to aerosols is higher in the absence of clouds. Higher negative values of ARF are found over the IGP region, given the high aerosol concentration above the region. Surface ARF values are everywhere negative for our study domain, with higher values in clear conditions. The results strongly correlate with AOD from MISR and ARF from CERES.Keywords: aerosol Radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, single scattering albedo (SSA), CERES
Procedia PDF Downloads 54799 Women Learning in Creative Project Based Learning of Engineering Education
Authors: Jui Hsuan Hung, Jeng Yi Tzeng
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Engineering education in the higher education is always male dominated. Therefore, women learning in this environment is an important research topic for feminists, gender researchers and engineering education researchers, especially in the era of gender mainstreaming. The research topics are from the dialectical discussion of feminism and science development history, gender issues of science education, to the subject choice of female students. These researches enrich the field of gender study in engineering education but lack of describing the detailed images of women in engineering education, including their learning, obstacles, needs or feelings. Otherwise, in order to keep up with the industrial trends of emphasizing group collaboration, engineering education turns from traditional lecture to creative group inquiry pedagogy in recent years. Creative project based learning is one of the creative group inquiry pedagogy which the engineering education in higher education adopts often, and it is seen as a gender-inclusive pedagogy in engineering education. Therefore, in order to understand the real situation of women learning in engineering education, this study took place in a course (Introduction to Engineering) offered by the school of engineering of a university in Taiwan. This course is designed for freshman students to establish basic understanding engineering from four departments (Chemical Engineering, Power Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management). One section of this course is to build a Hydraulic Robot designed by the Department of Power Mechanical Engineering. 321 students in the school of engineering took this course and all had the reflection questionnaire. These students are divided into groups of 5 members to work on this project. The videos of process of discussion of five volunteered groups with different gender composition are analyzed, and six women of these five groups are interviewed. We are still on the process of coding and analyzing videos and the qualitative data, but several tentative findings have already emerged. (1) The activity models of groups of both genders are gender segregation, and not like women; men never be the ‘assistants’. (2) The culture of the group is developed by the major gender, but men always dominate the process of practice in all kinds of gender composition groups. (3) Project based learning is supposed to be a gender-inclusive learning model in creative engineering education, but communication obstacles between men and women make it less women friendly. (4) Gender identity, not professional identity, is adopted by these women while they interact with men in their groups. (5) Gender composition and project-based learning pedagogy are not the key factors for women learning in engineering education, but the gender conscience awareness is.Keywords: engineering education, gender education, creative project based learning, women learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 316798 Floodnet: Classification for Post Flood Scene with a High-Resolution Aerial Imaginary Dataset
Authors: Molakala Mourya Vardhan Reddy, Kandimala Revanth, Koduru Sumanth, Beena B. M.
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Emergency response and recovery operations are severely hampered by natural catastrophes, especially floods. Understanding post-flood scenarios is essential to disaster management because it facilitates quick evaluation and decision-making. To this end, we introduce FloodNet, a brand-new high-resolution aerial picture collection created especially for comprehending post-flood scenes. A varied collection of excellent aerial photos taken during and after flood occurrences make up FloodNet, which offers comprehensive representations of flooded landscapes, damaged infrastructure, and changed topographies. The dataset provides a thorough resource for training and assessing computer vision models designed to handle the complexity of post-flood scenarios, including a variety of environmental conditions and geographic regions. Pixel-level semantic segmentation masks are used to label the pictures in FloodNet, allowing for a more detailed examination of flood-related characteristics, including debris, water bodies, and damaged structures. Furthermore, temporal and positional metadata improve the dataset's usefulness for longitudinal research and spatiotemporal analysis. For activities like flood extent mapping, damage assessment, and infrastructure recovery projection, we provide baseline standards and evaluation metrics to promote research and development in the field of post-flood scene comprehension. By integrating FloodNet into machine learning pipelines, it will be easier to create reliable algorithms that will help politicians, urban planners, and first responders make choices both before and after floods. The goal of the FloodNet dataset is to support advances in computer vision, remote sensing, and disaster response technologies by providing a useful resource for researchers. FloodNet helps to create creative solutions for boosting communities' resilience in the face of natural catastrophes by tackling the particular problems presented by post-flood situations.Keywords: image classification, segmentation, computer vision, nature disaster, unmanned arial vehicle(UAV), machine learning.
Procedia PDF Downloads 81797 Ship Roll Reduction Using Water-Flow Induced Coriolis Effect
Authors: Mario P. Walker, Masaaki Okuma
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Ships are subjected to motions which can disrupt on-board operations and damage equipment. Roll motion, in particular, is of great interest due to low damping conditions which may lead to capsizing. Therefore finding ways to reduce this motion is important in ship designs. Several techniques have been investigated to reduce rolling. These include the commonly used anti-roll tanks, fin stabilizers and bilge keels. However, these systems are not without their challenges. For example, water-flow in anti-roll tanks creates complications, and for fin stabilizers and bilge keels, an extremely large size is required to produce any significant damping creating operational challenges. Additionally, among these measures presented above only anti-roll tanks are effective in zero forward motion of the vessels. This paper proposes and investigates a method to reduce rolling by inducing Coriolis effect using water-flow in the radial direction. Motion in the radial direction of a rolling structure will induce Coriolis force and, depending on the direction of flow will either amplify or attenuate the structure. The system is modelled with two degrees of freedom, having rotational motion for parametric rolling and radial motion of the water-flow. Equations of motion are derived and investigated. Numerical examples are analyzed in detail. To demonstrate applicability parameters from a Ro-Ro vessel are used as extensive research have been conducted on these over the years. The vessel is investigated under free and forced roll conditions. Several models are created using various masses, heights, and velocities of water-flow at a given time. The proposed system was found to produce substantial roll reduction which increases with increase in any of the parameters varied as stated above, with velocity having the most significant effect. The proposed system provides a simple approach to reduce ship rolling. Water-flow control is very simple as the water flows in only one direction with constant velocity. Only needing to control the time at which the system should be turned on or off. Furthermore, the proposed system is effective in both forward and zero forward motion of the ship, and provides no hydrodynamic drag. This is a starting point for designing an effective and practical system. For this to be a viable approach further investigations are needed to address challenges that present themselves.Keywords: Coriolis effect, damping, rolling, water-flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 450796 Composition Dependence of Ni 2p Core Level Shift in Fe1-xNix Alloys
Authors: Shakti S. Acharya, V. R. R. Medicherla, Rajeev Rawat, Komal Bapna, Deepnarayan Biswas, Khadija Ali, K. Maiti
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The discovery of invar effect in 35% Ni concentration Fe1-xNix alloy has stimulated enormous experimental and theoretical research. Elemental Fe and low Ni concentration Fe1-xNix alloys which possess body centred cubic (bcc) crystal structure at ambient temperature and pressure transform to hexagonally close packed (hcp) phase at around 13 GPa. Magnetic order was found to be absent at 11K for Fe92Ni8 alloy when subjected to a high pressure of 26 GPa. The density functional theoretical calculations predicted substantial hyperfine magnetic fields, but were not observed in Mossbaur spectroscopy. The bulk modulus of fcc Fe1-xNix alloys with Ni concentration more than 35%, is found to be independent of pressure. The magnetic moment of Fe is also found be almost same in these alloys from 4 to 10 GPa pressure. Fe1-xNix alloys exhibit a complex microstructure which is formed by a series of complex phase transformations like martensitic transformation, spinodal decomposition, ordering, mono-tectoid reaction, eutectoid reaction at temperatures below 400°C. Despite the existence of several theoretical models the field is still in its infancy lacking full knowledge about the anomalous properties exhibited by these alloys. Fe1-xNix alloys have been prepared by arc melting the high purity constituent metals in argon ambient. These alloys have annealed at around 3000C in vacuum sealed quartz tube for two days to make the samples homogeneous. These alloys have been structurally characterized by x-ray diffraction and were found to exhibit a transition from bcc to fcc for x > 0.3. Ni 2p core levels of the alloys have been measured using high resolution (0.45 eV) x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Ni 2p core level shifts to lower binding energy with respect to that of pure Ni metal giving rise to negative core level shifts (CLSs). Measured CLSs exhibit a linear dependence in fcc region (x > 0.3) and were found to deviate slightly in bcc region (x < 0.3). ESCA potential model fails correlate CLSs with site potentials or charges in metallic alloys. CLSs in these alloys occur mainly due to shift in valence bands with composition due to intra atomic charge redistribution.Keywords: arc melting, core level shift, ESCA potential model, valence band
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