Search results for: combined power and refrigeration cycle

Authors: Kamran Siddique, Hiroyuki Asada, Yoshifumi Ogami

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The use of Micro Gas Turbine (MGT) as the engine in Unmanned Aerobic Vehicles (UAVs) and power source in Robotics is widespread these days. Research has been conducted in the past decade or so to improve the performance of different components of MGT. This type of engine has interrelated components which have non-linear characteristics. Therefore, the overall engine performance depends on the individual engine element’s performance. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is one of the simulation method tools used to analyze or even optimize MGT system performance. In this study, the compressor of the MGT is designed, and performance optimization is being done using CFD. Performance of the micro compressor is improved in order to increase the overall performance of MGT. A high value of pressure ratio is to be achieved by studying the effect of change of different operating parameters like mass flow rate and revolutions per minute (RPM) and aerodynamical and geometrical parameters on the pressure ratio of the compressor. Two types of compressor designs are considered in this study; 3D centrifugal and ‘planar’ designs. For a 10 mm impeller, the planar model is the simplest compressor model with the ease in manufacturability. On the other hand, 3D centrifugal model, although more efficient, is very difficult to manufacture using current microfabrication resources. Therefore, the planar model is the best-suited model for a micro compressor. So. a planar micro compressor has been designed that has a good pressure ratio, and it is easy to manufacture using current microfabrication technologies. Future work is to fabricate the compressor to get experimental results and validate the theoretical model.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, microfabrication, MEMS, unmanned aerobic vehicles

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Authors: H. Ben Khlifa, W. Cheikhrouhou-Koubaa, A. Cheikhrouhou

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The orthorhombic Pr₀.₈Na₀.₂−ₓKₓMnO₃ (x = 0.10 and 0.15) manganites are prepared by using the solid-state reaction at high temperatures. The critical exponents (β, γ, δ) are investigated through various techniques such as modified Arrott plot, Kouvel-Fisher method, and critical isotherm analysis based on the data of the magnetic measurements recorded around the Curie temperature. The critical exponents are derived from the magnetization data using the Kouvel-Fisher method, are found to be β = 0.32(4) and γ = 1.29(2) at TC ~ 123 K for x = 0.10 and β = 0.31(1) and γ = 1.25(2) at TC ~ 133 K for x = 0.15. The critical exponent values obtained for both samples are comparable to the values predicted by the 3D-Ising model and have also been verified by the scaling equation of state. Such results demonstrate the existence of ferromagnetic short-range order in our materials. The magnetic entropy changes of polycrystalline samples with a second-order phase transition are investigated. A large magnetic entropy change deduced from isothermal magnetization curves, is observed in our samples with a peak centered on their respective Curie temperatures (TC). The field dependence of the magnetic entropy changes are analyzed, which shows power-law dependence ΔSmax ≈ a(μ0 H)n at the transition temperature. The values of n obey the Curie Weiss law above the transition temperature. It is shown that for the investigated materials, the magnetic entropy change follows a master curve behavior. The rescaled magnetic entropy change curves for different applied fields collapse onto a single curve for both samples.

Keywords: manganites, critical exponents, magnetization, magnetocaloric, master curve

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Authors: Tony Chapman-Wilson

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Applied theatre is not an ultimate vehicle to create social change; but is more an opportunity of hope that the production material might affect this. Theatre-makers are able to deconstruct socially and politically challenging themes to encourage their audience to witness lived experiences as they consider themes of concern and injustice. This allows writers to (re) present the lived experiences of trans people, and for social injustice, continued transphobia, and lack of equity to be presented to an audience for debate. There needs to be a stronger position and presence of trans voices and active participation presented of these rather than just that of the cisgender-lens and standpoint. This research examines the relationship between human rights and theatre and considers global examples of this practice, as well as exploring the negatives formed from this relationship, and how this may be developed in the future. This focusses on the ability of theatre to denounce the violations of human rights and considers the power of theatre to support the importance of the awareness of violations to human rights for the raised awareness and potential for action of the audience – who may themselves be part of the oppressed, or indeed an oppressor. The fundamental assertion here is not one of evidenced social change, but of awareness raising of the audience and the potential for social activism and action. The practice of applied theatre is one that is experienced by the audience and the project participants alike, with the intention that theatre may consider how people interact with one another. This paper examines the opportunity of verbatim theatre techniques to allow for a cis-led trans-collaborative research project to (re) present intergenerational trans identities.

Keywords: applied theatre, verbatim, transgender, social justice

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Authors: Andreas Hirseland, Lukas Kerschbaumer

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In Germany, during the past years there constantly are about one million long term unemployed who did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to regular employment, especially if accompanied by other impediments such as low level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. Almost two thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Hiring them is often considered as an investment too risky for employers. Therefore formal application schemes based on formal qualification certificates and vocational biographies might reduce employers’ risks but at the same time are not helpful for long-term unemployed and welfare recipients. The panel survey ‘Labor market and social security’ (PASS; ~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency), shows that their chance to get back to work tends to fall to nil. Only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions could be observed. In a sequential explanatory mixed-method study, the very scarce ‘success stories’ of unlikely transitions from long term unemployment to work were explored by qualitative inquiry – in-depth interviews with a focus on biography accompanied by qualitative network techniques in order to get a more detailed insight of relevant actors involved in the processes which promote the transition from being a welfare recipient to work. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation.

Keywords: against-all-odds, economic sociology, long-term unemployment, mixed-methods

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Authors: Alemayehu Ambaw, Matia Mukama, Umezuruike Linus Opara

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This study introduces a comprehensive method for designing ventilated corrugated fiberboard carton for fresh fruit packaging utilising virtual prototyping. The technique efficiently assesses and analyses the mechanical and thermal capabilities of fresh fruit packing boxes prior to making production investments. Comprehensive structural, aerodynamic, and thermodynamic data from designs were collected and evaluated in comparison to real-world packaging needs. Physical prototypes of potential designs were created and evaluated afterward. The virtual prototype is created with computer-aided graphics, computational structural dynamics, and computational fluid dynamics technologies. The virtual prototyping quickly generated data on carton compression strength, airflow resistance, produce cooling rate, spatiotemporal temperature, and product quality map in the cold chain within a few hours. Six distinct designs were analysed. All the various carton designs showed similar effectiveness in preserving the quality of the goods. The innovative packaging box design is more compact, resulting in a higher freight density of 1720 kg more fruit per reefer compared to the commercial counterpart. The precooling process was improved, resulting in a 17% increase in throughput and a 30% reduction in power usage.

Keywords: postharvest, container logistics, space/volume usage, computational method, packaging technology

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Authors: T. S. Terence Ma, Irene T. Ho

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Conducting adequate assessment of the challenges students with ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorder) face and the support they need is imperative for promoting their school adjustment. Students with ASD often show deficits in communication, social interaction, emotional regulation, and self-management in learning. While targeting these areas in intervention is often helpful, we argue that not enough attention has been paid to weak self-regulation being a key factor underlying their manifest difficulty in all these areas. Self-regulation refers to one’s ability to moderate their behavioral or affective responses without assistance from others. Especially for students with high functioning autism, who often show problems not so much in acquiring the needed skills but rather in applying those skills appropriately in everyday problem-solving, self-regulation becomes a key to successful adjustment in daily life. Therefore, a greater understanding of the construct of self-regulation, its relationship with other daily skills, and its role in school functioning for students with ASD would generate insights on how students’ school adjustment could be promoted more effectively. There were two focuses in this study. Firstly, we examined the extent to which self-regulation is a distinct construct that is differentiable from other daily skills and the most salient indicators of this construct. Then we tested a model of relationships between self-regulation and other daily school skills as well as their relative and combined effects on school adjustment. A total of 1,345 Grade1 to Grade 6 students with ASD attending mainstream schools in Hong Kong participated in the research. In the first stage of the study, teachers filled out a questionnaire consisting of 136 items assessing a wide range of student skills in social, emotional and learning areas. Results from exploratory factor analysis (EFA) with 673 participants and subsequent confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) with another group of 672 participants showed that there were five distinct factors of school skills, namely (1) communication skills, (2) pro-social behavior, (3) emotional skills, (4) learning management, and (5) self-regulation. Five scales representing these skill dimensions were generated. In the second stage of the study, a model postulating the mediating role of self-regulation for the effects of the other four types of skills on school adjustment was tested with structural equation modeling (SEM). School adjustment was defined in terms of the extent to which the student is accepted well in school, with high engagement in school life and self-esteem as well as good interpersonal relationships. A 5-item scale was used to assess these aspects of school adjustment. Results showed that communication skills, pro-social behavior, emotional skills and learning management had significant effects on school adjustment only indirectly through self-regulation, and their total effects were found to be not high. The results indicate that support rendered to students with ASD focusing only on the training of well-defined skills is not adequate for promoting their inclusion in school. More attention should be paid to the training of self-management with an emphasis on the application of skills backed by self-regulation. Also, other non-skill factors are important in promoting inclusive education.

Keywords: autism, assessment, factor analysis, self-regulation, school adjustment

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Authors: Yvette Reisinger

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Relatively little is known about the Arab travel market, especially the outbound travel market from Arab countries in the Middle East. The Kuwaiti travel market is the smallest yet fastest growing in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The Kuwaiti travel market represents a great potential for the international tourism industry. Kuwaiti nationals have a very high spending power due to the Kuwaiti dinar being the highest-valued currency unit in the world. Although Europe, North America, and Asia/Pacific try to attract the Arab tourist market the number of Kuwaiti travellers attracted to these destinations is very low. The success in attracting the Kuwaiti travel market to Western countries must be guided by an analysis of the factors that affect its travel decisions. The objective of the study is to identify major factors that influence Kuwaiti nationals’ intentions to travel to Western countries. A model is developed and empirically tested on a sample of 343 Kuwaiti nationals. A series of regression analyses are run to determine the effects of different factors on Kuwaiti’s travel decisions. A Herman’s single factor test and Durbin-Watson test are used to assess the validity of the regression model. Analysis is controlled for socio-demographics. The results show that the Muslim friendly amenities and destination cognitive image exert significant effects on Kuwaiti nationals’ intentions to travel to Western countries. The study provides a better understanding of the factors that attract Kuwaiti tourists to Western countries. By knowing what encourages Kuwaitis to travel to Western countries marketers can plan and promote these countries accordingly. The study provides a foundation of future empirical research into the Kuwaiti/Arab travel market.

Keywords: Kuwaiti travel market, travel decisions, Western countries

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Authors: Mohamed El Morsy, Gabriela Achtenová

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Research on damage of gears and gear pairs using vibration signals remains very attractive, because vibration signals from a gear pair are complex in nature and not easy to interpret. Predicting gear pair defects by analyzing changes in vibration signal of gears pairs in operation is a very reliable method. Therefore, a suitable vibration signal processing technique is necessary to extract defect information generally obscured by the noise from dynamic factors of other gear pairs. This article presents the value of cepstrum analysis in vehicle gearbox fault diagnosis. Cepstrum represents the overall power content of a whole family of harmonics and sidebands when more than one family of sidebands is present at the same time. The concept for the measurement and analysis involved in using the technique are briefly outlined. Cepstrum analysis is used for detection of an artificial pitting defect in a vehicle gearbox loaded with different speeds and torques. The test stand is equipped with three dynamometers; the input dynamometer serves as the internal combustion engine, the output dynamometers introduce the load on the flanges of the output joint shafts. The pitting defect is manufactured on the tooth side of a gear of the fifth speed on the secondary shaft. Also, a method for fault diagnosis of gear faults is presented based on order cepstrum. The procedure is illustrated with the experimental vibration data of the vehicle gearbox. The results show the effectiveness of cepstrum analysis in detection and diagnosis of the gear condition.

Keywords: cepstrum analysis, fault diagnosis, gearbox, vibration signals

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Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Yasaman Azarmjoo, Zahra Alikhani Koopaei

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The increasing global population and continued growth in energy consumption underscore the need for renewable and sustainable energy sources more than ever. Soil batteries are a method for generating electrical energy by using recycled materials. Recycled materials include galvanized and copper sheets and recycled tires. Additionally, hydrogen, being a clean and efficient fuel, has the potential to replace fossil fuels. Consequently, hydrogen production from water presents a sustainable solution for energy supply. By utilizing aged materials, hydrogen production becomes more cost-effective and environmentally friendly. This article focuses on energy-deprived agricultural lands, explaining how soil batteries and hydrogen can provide the necessary energy for agricultural equipment, such as irrigation, lighting, greenhouse ventilation, and heating. The article explores the benefits of utilizing this method, emphasizing its potential to reduce environmental pollution through the use of recyclable materials. It is worth mentioning that these technologies face challenges, but their progress toward achieving zero-energy consumer standards positions them as promising future technologies for electricity generation. This article provides detailed insights into emerging technologies using a constructed case study involving soil batteries and a hydrogen fuel production device.

Keywords: electricity generation, soil batteries, tires, hydrogen, heat supply, water, aged materials, recycling, agricultural lands

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Authors: Monika Šípová, Daniela Marušáková, Claudia Aparicio

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New sources and ways of producing energy are still seeking, and one of the sustainable ways is Generation IV nuclear reactors. The supercritical water-cooled reactor is one of the six nuclear reactors of Generation IV, and as a consequence of the development of light water, reactors seem to be the most perspective. Thus, materials usually used in light water reactors are also tested under the expected operating conditions of the supercritical water-cooled reactor. Austenitic stainless steel 08Cr18Ni10Ti is widely used in the eastern types of light water nuclear power plants. Therefore, specimens of 08Cr18Ni10Ti were exposed to conditions close to the pseudo-critical point of water and high-temperature supercritical water. The description and evaluation of the corrosion behaviour of austenitic stainless steel have been done based on the results of X-ray diffraction in combination with energy dispersive spectroscopy and electron backscatter diffraction. Thus, significant differences have been found in the structure and composition of oxides formed depending on the temperature of exposure. The high temperature of supercritical water resulted in localised form of corrosion in contrast to the thin oxide layer of 1 µm present on the surface of specimens exposed close to the pseudo-critical point of water. The obtained results are important for further research as the supercritical water can be successfully used as a coolant for small modular reactors, which are currently of interest.

Keywords: localised corrosion, supercritical water, stainless steel, electron backscatter diffraction

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Authors: Domagoj Nakic, Drazen Vouk, Nina Stirmer, Mario Siljeg, Ana Baricevic

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Wastewater treatment processes generate significant quantities of sewage sludge that need to be adequately treated and disposed. In many EU countries, the problem of adequate disposal of sewage sludge has not been solved, nor is determined by the unique rules, instructions or guidelines. Disposal of sewage sludge is important not only in terms of satisfying the regulations, but the aspect of choosing the optimal wastewater and sludge treatment technology. Among the solutions that seem reasonable, recycling of sewage sludge and its byproducts reaches the top recommendation. Within the framework of sustainable development, recycling of sludge almost completely closes the cycle of wastewater treatment in which only negligible amounts of waste that requires landfilling are being generated. In many EU countries, significant amounts of sewage sludge are incinerated, resulting in a new byproduct in the form of ash. Sewage sludge ash is three to five times less in volume compared to stabilized and dehydrated sludge, but it also requires further management. The combustion process also destroys hazardous organic components in the sludge and minimizes unpleasant odors. The basic objective of the presented research is to explore the possibilities of recycling of the sewage sludge ash as a supplementary cementitious material. This is because of the main oxides present in the sewage sludge ash (SiO2, Al2O3 and Cao, which is similar to cement), so it can be considered as latent hydraulic and pozzolanic material. Physical and chemical characteristics of ashes, generated by sludge collected from different wastewater treatment plants, and incinerated in laboratory conditions at different temperatures, are investigated since it is a prerequisite of its subsequent recycling and the eventual use in other industries. Research was carried out by replacing up to 20% of cement by mass in cement mortar mixes with different obtained ashes and examining characteristics of created mixes in fresh and hardened condition. The mixtures with the highest ash content (20%) showed an average drop in workability of about 15% which is attributed to the increased water requirements when ash was used. Although some mixes containing added ash showed compressive and flexural strengths equivalent to those of reference mixes, generally slight decrease in strength was observed. However, it is important to point out that the compressive strengths always remained above 85% compared to the reference mix, while flexural strengths remained above 75%. Ecological impact of innovative construction products containing sewage sludge ash was determined by analyzing leaching concentrations of heavy metals. Results demonstrate that sewage sludge ash can satisfy technical and environmental criteria for use in cementitious materials which represents a new recycling application for an increasingly important waste material that is normally landfilled. Particular emphasis is placed on linking the composition of generated ashes depending on its origin and applied treatment processes (stage of wastewater treatment, sludge treatment technology, incineration temperature) with the characteristics of the final products. Acknowledgement: This work has been fully supported by Croatian Science Foundation under the project '7927 - Reuse of sewage sludge in concrete industry – from infrastructure to innovative construction products'.

Keywords: cement mortar, recycling, sewage sludge ash, sludge disposal

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Authors: ShuJiang Jiang

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The interaction of turbulence with airfoil is an important noise source in many engineering fields, including helicopters, turbofan, and contra-rotating open rotor engines, where turbulence generated in the wake of upstream blades interacts with the leading edge of downstream blades and produces aerodynamic noise. One approach to study turbulence-airfoil interaction noise is to model the oncoming turbulence as harmonic gusts. A compact noise source produces a dipole-like sound directivity pattern. However, when the acoustic wavelength is much smaller than the airfoil chord length, the airfoil needs to be treated as a non-compact source, and the gust-airfoil interaction becomes more complicated and results in multiple lobes generated in the radiated sound directivity. Capturing the short acoustic wavelength is a challenge for numerical simulations. In this work, simulations are performed for gust-airfoil interaction at different Mach numbers, using a high-fidelity direct Computational AeroAcoustic (CAA) approach based on a spectral/hp element method, verified by a CAA benchmark case. It is found that the squared sound pressure varies approximately as the 5th power of Mach number, which changes slightly with the observer location. This scaling law can give a better sound prediction than the flat-plate theory for thicker airfoils. Besides, another prediction method, based on the flat-plate theory and CAA simulation, has been proposed to give better predictions than the scaling law for thicker airfoils.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, gust-airfoil interaction, CFD, CAA

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Authors: J. C. Cabanillas-Noris, M. I. Martínez-Hernández, I. León-Monzón

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The selection of diffractive events in the ALICE experiment during the first data taking period (RUN-I) of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was limited by the range over which rapidity gaps occur. It would be possible to achieve better measurements by expanding the range in which the production of particles can be detected. For this purpose, the ALICE Diffractive (AD0) detector has been installed and commissioned for the second phase (RUN-II). Any new detector should be able to take the data synchronously with all other detectors and be operated through the ALICE central systems. One of the key elements that must be developed for the AD0 detector is the Detector Control System (DCS). The DCS must be designed to operate safely and correctly this detector. Furthermore, the DCS must also provide optimum operating conditions for the acquisition and storage of physics data and ensure these are of the highest quality. The operation of AD0 implies the configuration of about 200 parameters, from electronics settings and power supply levels to the archiving of operating conditions data and the generation of safety alerts. It also includes the automation of procedures to get the AD0 detector ready for taking data in the appropriate conditions for the different run types in ALICE. The performance of AD0 detector depends on a certain number of parameters such as the nominal voltages for each photomultiplier tube (PMT), their threshold levels to accept or reject the incoming pulses, the definition of triggers, etc. All these parameters define the efficiency of AD0 and they have to be monitored and controlled through AD0 DCS. Finally, AD0 DCS provides the operator with multiple interfaces to execute these tasks. They are realized as operating panels and scripts running in the background. These features are implemented on a SCADA software platform as a distributed control system which integrates to the global control system of the ALICE experiment.

Keywords: AD0, ALICE, DCS, LHC

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Authors: Soyon Kim, Edward Kim

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In order to retrieve information from the massive stream of songs in the music industry, music search by title, lyrics, artist, mood, and genre has become more important. Despite the subjectivity and controversy over the definition of music genres across different nations and cultures, automatic genre classification systems that facilitate the process of music categorization have been developed. Manual genre selection by music producers is being provided as statistical data for designing automatic genre classification systems. In this paper, an automatic music genre classification system utilizing non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is proposed. Short-term characteristics of the music signal can be captured based on the timbre features such as mel-frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC), decorrelated filter bank (DFB), octave-based spectral contrast (OSC), and octave band sum (OBS). Long-term time-varying characteristics of the music signal can be summarized with (1) the statistical features such as mean, variance, minimum, and maximum of the timbre features and (2) the modulation spectrum features such as spectral flatness measure, spectral crest measure, spectral peak, spectral valley, and spectral contrast of the timbre features. Not only these conventional basic long-term feature vectors, but also NMF based feature vectors are proposed to be used together for genre classification. In the training stage, NMF basis vectors were extracted for each genre class. The NMF features were calculated in the log spectral magnitude domain (NMF-LSM) as well as in the basic feature vector domain (NMF-BFV). For NMF-LSM, an entire full band spectrum was used. However, for NMF-BFV, only low band spectrum was used since high frequency modulation spectrum of the basic feature vectors did not contain important information for genre classification. In the test stage, using the set of pre-trained NMF basis vectors, the genre classification system extracted the NMF weighting values of each genre as the NMF feature vectors. A support vector machine (SVM) was used as a classifier. The GTZAN multi-genre music database was used for training and testing. It is composed of 10 genres and 100 songs for each genre. To increase the reliability of the experiments, 10-fold cross validation was used. For a given input song, an extracted NMF-LSM feature vector was composed of 10 weighting values that corresponded to the classification probabilities for 10 genres. An NMF-BFV feature vector also had a dimensionality of 10. Combined with the basic long-term features such as statistical features and modulation spectrum features, the NMF features provided the increased accuracy with a slight increase in feature dimensionality. The conventional basic features by themselves yielded 84.0% accuracy, but the basic features with NMF-LSM and NMF-BFV provided 85.1% and 84.2% accuracy, respectively. The basic features required dimensionality of 460, but NMF-LSM and NMF-BFV required dimensionalities of 10 and 10, respectively. Combining the basic features, NMF-LSM and NMF-BFV together with the SVM with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel produced the significantly higher classification accuracy of 88.3% with a feature dimensionality of 480.

Keywords: mel-frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC), music genre classification, non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Chui-Hsin Chen, Yu-Ting Chen

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Special concentrically braced frames is one of the seismic load resisting systems, which dissipates seismic energy when bracing members within the frames undergo yielding and buckling while sustaining their axial tension and compression load capacities. Most of the inelastic deformation of a buckling bracing member concentrates in the mid-length region. While experiencing cyclic loading, the region dissipates most of the seismic energy being input into the frame. Such a concentration makes the braces vulnerable to failure modes associated with low-cycle fatigue. In this research, a strategy to improve the cyclic behavior of the conventional steel bracing member is proposed by filling the Hollow Structural Shape (HSS) member with reinforcement. It prevents the local section from concentrating large plastic deformation caused by cyclic loading. The infill helps spread over the plastic hinge region into a wider area hence postpone the initiation of local buckling or even the rupture of the braces. The finite element method is introduced to simulate the complicated bracing member behavior and member-versus-infill interaction under cyclic loading. Fifteen 3-D-element-based models are built by ABAQUS software. The verification of the FEM model is done with unreinforced (UR) HSS bracing members’ cyclic test data and aluminum honeycomb plates’ bending test data. Numerical models include UR and filled HSS bracing members with various compactness ratios based on the specification of AISC-2016 and AISC-1989. The primary variables to be investigated include the relative bending stiffness and the material of the filling reinforcement. The distributions of von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) are used as indices to tell the strengths and shortcomings of each model. The result indicates that the change of relative bending stiffness of the infill is much more influential than the change of material in use to increase the energy dissipation capacity. Strengthen the relative bending stiffness of the reinforcement results in additional energy dissipation capacity to the extent of 24% and 46% in model based on AISC-2016 (16-series) and AISC-1989 (89-series), respectively. HSS members with infill show growth in 𝜂Local Buckling, normalized energy cumulated until the happening of local buckling, comparing to UR bracing members. The 89-series infill-reinforced members have more energy dissipation capacity than unreinforced 16-series members by 117% to 166%. The flexural rigidity of infills should be less than 29% and 13% of the member section itself for 16-series and 89-series bracing members accordingly, thereby guaranteeing the spread over of the plastic hinge and the happening of it within the reinforced section. If the parameters are properly configured, the ductility, energy dissipation capacity, and fatigue-life of HSS SCBF bracing members can be improved prominently by the infill-reinforced method.

Keywords: special concentrically braced frames, HSS, cyclic loading, infill reinforcement, finite element analysis, PEEQ

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Authors: Punam Shaw

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Relationship often refers to the acquaintance or association between two or more things, which are interrelated and interdependent. The socio-economic status is obviously a blending of two states, would, therefore, be a ranking of an individual by the society he or she lives in, and in terms of his/her material belonging, cultural possessions along with the degree of respect, power and influence wield. Hence, education, income and occupation of an individual play a significant role in society. Positive mental attitude leads to achieve the set goal, and improve performance particularly in team cohesiveness, which may be determined by various interrelated aspects, which can predict the future assessment in their respective field accordingly. The study intended to examine and explore the relationship between Socio-economic Status and Mental Toughness of cricketers. For the present study descriptive survey research method was used and selected 40 (male=20 female=20) U-17 years registered players under Cricket Association of Bengal (CAB), as the sample population. Modified Socio-Economic Status Scale was used to collect the data regarding players, socioeconomic Status and to assess the mental toughness; Scott Barry Kaufman questionnaire was used. The data had been analysed through applying Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and t-test as statistical techniques. The findings of the study showed that there is a positive correlation between socioeconomic Status and Mental Toughness among cricketers, it was found that significant difference was presented between male and female SES group. It was further revealed that there is no significant difference between male and female cricketers and in their different socioeconomic class with respect to their mental toughness.

Keywords: cricketers, mental toughness, relationship, socio-economic status

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Authors: Ana Neves

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The European Union’s multi-level constitutionalism is grounded in an intricate network of vertical and horizontal legal relationships among different levels and types of public authorities. In a very significant way since the 2008 crisis, evolving institutional arrangements and institutional dynamics in the European Union have been progressively impacting Member States and the terms under which national public authorities are organised, interact and exercise their powers. This impact occurs in both macro and micro dimensions. Several examples are relevant here, such as the involvement of national Parliaments in the activities of the European Union, the enhanced integration of public administrations, the side effects of the Council framework decision on the European Arrest Warrant, the European Union Justice Scoreboard, the protection of whistle-blowers regulation, the enhanced cooperation on the establishment of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, the regime for the protection of the Union budget and the European Rule of Law Mechanism. A common trend or denominator underlies the deepening of institutional interdependence and the increased interactions between the European Union, Member States, and public authorities at different levels. This seems to be conditionality as a general principle. The European multi-level constitutionalism must be considered in the light of this conditionality principle, which does not “imply a relationship of command and obedience”. Nevertheless, it might be more effective or be a very compelling principle. It is as if the extension of the shared rule is being accompanied by a contrapuntal dialogue. The different public authorities at various levels are being called to rethink and readjust themselves within a broader and more plural framework concerning understanding the limitation of power.

Keywords: european union -, multi-level hierarchy, conditionality, separation of powers

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Authors: Sogo Angel Olofinbiyi

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There have been widespread assumptions across the globe that the root cause of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria is religious rather than socio-economic. An investigation into this dichotomy allowed this study to fully demonstrate that the root cause of Boko Haram’s terrorist actions emanates from the non-fulfillment of socio-economic goals that are prompted by the violation of fundamental human rights, corruption, poverty, unconstitutional and undemocratic practices in the northern part of the Nigerian state. To achieve its aim of establishing the root cause of the terrorism crisis in the latter country, the study critically appraised the socio-economic context of the insurgency by adopting one-on-one in-depth interviews involving forty (40) participants to interrogate the phenomenon. Empirical evidence from the study demonstrated that the evolution of Boko Haram terrorism was a response to socio-economic phlebotomy, political and moral putrescence, and the dehumanization of people that stem from a combination of decades of mismanagement and pervasive corruption by various Nigerian leaders. The study concludes that, as long as the endemic socio-economic problems caused by global capitalism vis-a-vis unequal hegemonic power exchange as expressed in socio-political, ethno-religious and cultural forms persist in the Nigerian society, the terrorism insurgency will recur and remain an inevitable enterprise and indeed a normal social reaction to every undesirable state of affairs. Based on the findings, the study urges the need for the amelioration of the conditions of the vast majority of the Nigerian populace by making socio-economic facilities available to them through the political state.

Keywords: Boko Haram Terrorism, insurgency, socio-economic, religious injunctions

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Authors: Hongmei Wang, Ziyun Xiang, Ying liu, Li Yu, Dongsheng Yue

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Intro: The COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) has greatly changed the global economic, political and financial ecology. The mutation of the coronavirus in the UK in December 2020 has brought new panic to the world. Deep learning was performed on Chest Computed tomography (CT) of COVID-19 and Influenza and describes their characteristics. The predominant features of COVID-19 pneumonia was ground-glass opacification, followed by consolidation. Lesion density: most lesions appear as ground-glass shadows, and some lesions coexist with solid lesions. Lesion distribution: the focus is mainly on the dorsal side of the periphery of the lung, with the lower lobe of the lungs as the focus, and it is often close to the pleura. Other features it has are grid-like shadows in ground glass lesions, thickening signs of diseased vessels, air bronchi signs and halo signs. The severe disease involves whole bilateral lungs, showing white lung signs, air bronchograms can be seen, and there can be a small amount of pleural effusion in the bilateral chest cavity. At the same time, this year's flu season could be near its peak after surging throughout the United States for months. Chest CT for Influenza infection is characterized by focal ground glass shadows in the lungs, with or without patchy consolidation, and bronchiole air bronchograms are visible in the concentration. There are patchy ground-glass shadows, consolidation, air bronchus signs, mosaic lung perfusion, etc. The lesions are mostly fused, which is prominent near the hilar and two lungs. Grid-like shadows and small patchy ground-glass shadows are visible. Deep neural networks have great potential in image analysis and diagnosis that traditional machine learning algorithms do not. Method: Aiming at the two major infectious diseases COVID-19 and influenza, which are currently circulating in the world, the chest CT of patients with two infectious diseases is classified and diagnosed using deep learning algorithms. The residual network is proposed to solve the problem of network degradation when there are too many hidden layers in a deep neural network (DNN). The proposed deep residual system (ResNet) is a milestone in the history of the Convolutional neural network (CNN) images, which solves the problem of difficult training of deep CNN models. Many visual tasks can get excellent results through fine-tuning ResNet. The pre-trained convolutional neural network ResNet is introduced as a feature extractor, eliminating the need to design complex models and time-consuming training. Fastai is based on Pytorch, packaging best practices for in-depth learning strategies, and finding the best way to handle diagnoses issues. Based on the one-cycle approach of the Fastai algorithm, the classification diagnosis of lung CT for two infectious diseases is realized, and a higher recognition rate is obtained. Results: A deep learning model was developed to efficiently identify the differences between COVID-19 and influenza using chest CT.

Keywords: COVID-19, Fastai, influenza, transfer network

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Authors: Tzay-An Shiau, Kuan-Lin Ho

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This study developed sustainability and quality of life indicators for urban passenger transportation by using Social Construction of Technology (SCOT). The initial indicators were proposed by referring to literatures and were summarized by using impact-based framework. Subsequently, the stakeholders were defined according to their interest, power and then classified into scientific, operational, policy making, policy monitoring and nonprofessional frames. The scientific frame consisted of nine scholars in transportation field. Ten representatives from Taipei Rapid Transit Corporation (TRTC), Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA) and bus operators were grouped into the operational frame. The policy making frame comprised of ten representatives from Department of Transportation, Taipei City Government (DOT, TCG), Department of Railways and Highways, Ministry of Transportation and Communication (DORH, MOTC), Directorate General of Highways, Ministry of Transportation and Communication (DGOH, MOTC) and Institute of Transportation, Ministry of Transportation and Communication (IOT, MOTC). The policy monitoring frame consisted of 15 representatives from Taipei City Councilor, legislator and reporter. The nonprofessional frame comprised of 72 Taipei citizens. The stakeholders were asked to evaluate the relative importance of indicators using Delphi survey method. Social construction of 14 transport sustainability indicators and 12 transport quality of life indicators were obtained.

Keywords: sustainability, quality of life, Social Construction of Technology (SCOT), stakeholder

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Authors: Damir Latypov

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A hybrid classical-quantum algorithm to solve boundary integral equations (BIE) arising in problems of electromagnetic and acoustic scattering is proposed. The quantum speed-up is due to a Quantum Linear System Algorithm (QLSA). The original QLSA of Harrow et al. provides an exponential speed-up over the best-known classical algorithms but only in the case of sparse systems. Due to the non-local nature of integral operators, matrices arising from discretization of BIEs, are, however, dense. A QLSA for dense matrices was introduced in 2017. Its runtime as function of the system's size N is bounded by O(√Npolylog(N)). The run time of the best-known classical algorithm for an arbitrary dense matrix scales as O(N².³⁷³). Instead of exponential as in case of sparse matrices, here we have only a polynomial speed-up. Nevertheless, sufficiently high power of this polynomial, ~4.7, should make QLSA an appealing alternative. Unfortunately for the QLSA, the asymptotic separability of the Green's function leads to high compressibility of the BIEs matrices. Classical fast algorithms such as Multilevel Fast Multipole Method (MLFMM) take advantage of this fact and reduce the runtime to O(Nlog(N)), i.e., the QLSA is only quadratically faster than the MLFMM. To be truly impactful for computational electromagnetics and acoustics engineers, QLSA must provide more substantial advantage than that. We propose a computational scheme which combines elements of the classical fast algorithms with the QLSA to achieve the required performance.

Keywords: quantum linear system algorithm, boundary integral equations, dense matrices, electromagnetic scattering theory

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Authors: Lidiia Nazarenko, Henryk Stolarski, Holm Altenbach

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In the paper, a (hierarchical) approach to analysis of thermo-elastic properties of random composites with interphases is outlined and illustrated. It is based on the statistical homogenization method – the method of conditional moments – combined with recently introduced notion of the energy-equivalent inhomogeneity which, in this paper, is extended to include thermal effects. After exposition of the general principles, the approach is applied in the investigation of the effective thermo-elastic properties of a material with randomly distributed nanoparticles. The basic idea of equivalent inhomogeneity is to replace the inhomogeneity and the surrounding it interphase by a single equivalent inhomogeneity of constant stiffness tensor and coefficient of thermal expansion, combining thermal and elastic properties of both. The equivalent inhomogeneity is then perfectly bonded to the matrix which allows to analyze composites with interphases using techniques devised for problems without interphases. From the mechanical viewpoint, definition of the equivalent inhomogeneity is based on Hill’s energy equivalence principle, applied to the problem consisting only of the original inhomogeneity and its interphase. It is more general than the definitions proposed in the past in that, conceptually and practically, it allows to consider inhomogeneities of various shapes and various models of interphases. This is illustrated considering spherical particles with two models of interphases, Gurtin-Murdoch material surface model and spring layer model. The resulting equivalent inhomogeneities are subsequently used to determine effective thermo-elastic properties of randomly distributed particulate composites. The effective stiffness tensor and coefficient of thermal extension of the material with so defined equivalent inhomogeneities are determined by the method of conditional moments. Closed-form expressions for the effective thermo-elastic parameters of a composite consisting of a matrix and randomly distributed spherical inhomogeneities are derived for the bulk and the shear moduli as well as for the coefficient of thermal expansion. Dependence of the effective parameters on the interphase properties is included in the resulting expressions, exhibiting analytically the nature of the size-effects in nanomaterials. As a numerical example, the epoxy matrix with randomly distributed spherical glass particles is investigated. The dependence of the effective bulk and shear moduli, as well as of the effective thermal expansion coefficient on the particle volume fraction (for different radii of nanoparticles) and on the radius of nanoparticle (for fixed volume fraction of nanoparticles) for different interphase models are compared to and discussed in the context of other theoretical predictions. Possible applications of the proposed approach to short-fiber composites with various types of interphases are discussed.

Keywords: effective properties, energy equivalence, Gurtin-Murdoch surface model, interphase, random composites, spherical equivalent inhomogeneity, spring layer model

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Authors: J. van Vuuren, D. J. van Vuuren, R. Muigai

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In recent times, South Africa has experienced extensive droughts that created the need for reliable small water reservoirs. These reservoirs have comparatively quick fabrication and installation times compared to market alternatives. An elevated water tank has inherent potential energy, resulting in that no additional water pumps are required to sustain water pressure at the outlet point – thus ensuring that, without electricity, a water source is available. The initial construction formwork and the complex geometric shape of concrete towers that requires casting can become time-consuming, rendering steel towers preferable. Reinforced concrete foundations, cast in advance, are required to be of sufficient strength. Thereafter, the prefabricated steel supporting structure and tank, which consist of steel panels, can be assembled and erected on site within a couple of days. Due to the time effectiveness of this system, it has become a popular solution to aid drought-stricken areas. These sites are normally in rural, schools or farmland areas. As these tanks can contain up to 2000kL (approximately 19.62MN) of water, combined with supporting lattice steel structures ranging between 5m and 30m in height, failure of one of the supporting members will result in system failure. Thus, there is a need to gain a comprehensive understanding of the operation conditions because of wind loadings on both the tank and the supporting structure. The aim of the research is to investigate the relationship between the theoretical wind loading on a lattice steel tower in combination with an elevated sectional steel tank, and the current wind loading codes, as applicable to South Africa. The research compares the respective design parameters (both theoretical and wind loading codes) whereby FEA analyses are conducted on the various design solutions. The currently available wind loading codes are not sufficient to design slender cantilever latticed steel towers that support elevated water storage tanks. Numerous factors in the design codes are not comprehensively considered when designing the system as these codes are dependent on various assumptions. Factors that require investigation for the study are; the wind loading angle to the face of the structure that will result in maximum load; the internal structural effects on models with different bracing patterns; the loading influence of the aspect ratio of the tank; and the clearance height of the tank on the structural members. Wind loads, as the variable that results in the highest failure rate of cantilevered lattice steel tower structures, require greater understanding. This study aims to contribute towards the design process of elevated steel tanks with lattice tower supporting structures.

Keywords: aspect ratio, bracing patterns, clearance height, elevated steel tanks, lattice steel tower, wind loads

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Authors: Esmaeil Zabihi, Seyed Hossein Alavi

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The purpose of this study is a comparison of movement and physical fitness in athlete's male students in altitude and sea-level. The samples consist of 450 subjects in altitude and sea-level in Iran in years of 2013 which were selected randomly from the population. We investigated the effect of high altitude on the tests activity profile of youth high altitude and sea level residents. Methods 450 Sea Level (Mahmood Abad) and 450 Altitude-resident (Shahre-Kord) athlete students tests of physical fitness near sea level (-5 m) and in Altitude (2100 m). This study is Descriptive Research (causal-comparative research). The tests of physical fitness include pull-ups test, sit-ups test, agility test(4 9), 45 sprint test, 1600 m running, long jump, and flexibility test. For determining of different between the physical fitness of altitude and sea-level students was used t-test (P ≤ 0.05). The result of this study show that there is no significant difference between the average of pull-ups test, flexibility, 45 sprints, and agility (4 9) test of students in sea-level and altitude. But there is a significant difference between the average of sit-ups, 1600 m running and long jump in altitude. The students of altitude have higher power rather than sea-level. But the students of sea-level have stronger abdominal muscles and cardio-respiratory endurance rather than altitude. High altitude reduces the distance covered by youth athlete students during tests. Neither acclimatisation nor lifelong residence at high altitude protects against detrimental effects of altitude on tests activity profile.

Keywords: physical fitness, sea level, altitude areas, AAHPERD test

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Authors: Isaac Alonge Olusola

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One of the major peculiarities of man is the ability to communicate and interact with language. The original Yoruba society, before the advent of the Europeans, was purely oral. That is the major means of inter- personal communication was through speaking. The abolition of slave trade by Britain marked the beginning of development of Yoruba alphabet and introduction of writing around 1800. However, most of the writing was Christian religion-focused. Later, the introduction of British colonial rule led to the introduction of writing that dwelt on political and economic emancipation. On October 1, 1960, Nigeria was granted independence by the British colonial masters and self-rule started in Nigeria. Unfortunately, the military and civilian administrations brought about political and economic oppression instead of comfort. The discomfort brought about by Nigerian political and military rulers turned the Yoruba poets to activists, reactionaries and critics. This paper will give a brief preamble on the history of Nigeria and how she got her political independence from the British in 1960. It will thereafter go further to mention some political and economic hardship brought about by Nigerian leaders. Using literary theories called semiotics and structuralism, the reactions and criticisms of some Yoruba poets will be mentioned and analyzed vis-à-vis the counter reactions of the governments in power. Moreover, the paper will bring about a conclusion on how to create a conducive atmosphere for the Yoruba poets to operate in Nigeria. Finally, suggestions will be offered on how the Nigerian government and Yoruba poets can co-exist positively to bring about a better standard of living to Nigerians and also promote good governance

Keywords: Yoruba, Yoruba language, Yoruba poets, political leaders

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Authors: Baker Ssekitto, Ambrose Mbogo

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The study reveals that indeed agriculture employs over 70% of Uganda’s population, of which majority are youth and women. The study further reveals that over 70% of the farmers are smallholder farmers based in rural areas, whose operations are greatly affected by; climate change, weak digital skills, limited access to productivity knowledge along value chains, limited access to quality farm inputs, weak logistics systems, limited access to quality extension services, weak business intelligence, limited access to quality markets among others. It finds that the emerging 4th industrial revolution powered by artificial intelligence, 5G and data science will provide possibilities of addressing some of these challenges. Furthermore, the study finds that despite rapid development of ICT4Agric Innovation, their uptake is constrained by a number of factors including; limited awareness of these innovations, low internet and smart phone penetration especially in rural areas, lack of appropriate digital skills, inappropriate programmes implementation models which are project and donor driven, limited articulation of value addition to various stakeholders among others. Majority of farmers and other value chain actors lacked knowledge and skills to harness the power of ICTs, especially their application of ICTs in monitoring and evaluation on quality of service in the extension system and farm level processes.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, productivity, ICT4agriculture, value chain, logistics

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Authors: Esther Chiramal, Kelvin Soh Boon Kai

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Explainable AI is a strong strategy implemented to understand complex black-box model predictions in a human-interpretable language. It provides the evidence required to execute the use of trustworthy and reliable AI systems. On the other hand, however, it also opens the door to locating possible vulnerabilities in an AI model. Traditional adversarial text attack uses word substitution, data augmentation techniques, and gradient-based attacks on powerful pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) variants to generate adversarial sentences. These attacks are generally white-box in nature and not practical as they can be easily detected by humans e.g., Changing the word from “Poor” to “Rich”. We proposed a simple yet effective Grey-box cum Black-box approach that does not require the knowledge of the model while using a set of surrogate Transformer/BERT models to perform the attack using Explainable AI techniques. As Transformers are the current state-of-the-art models for almost all Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, an attack generated from BERT1 is transferable to BERT2. This transferability is made possible due to the attention mechanism in the transformer that allows the model to capture long-range dependencies in a sequence. Using the power of BERT generalisation via attention, we attempt to exploit how transformers learn by attacking a few surrogate transformer variants which are all based on a different architecture. We demonstrate that this approach is highly effective to generate semantically good sentences by changing as little as one word that is not detectable by humans while still fooling other BERT models.

Keywords: BERT, explainable AI, Grey-box text attack, transformer

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Susan Thurstans, Natalie Sessions, Carmel Dolan, Kate Sadler, Bernardette Cichon, Shelia Isanaka, Dominique Roberfroid, Heather Stobagh, Patrick Webb, Tanya Khara

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For many years, wasting and stunting have been viewed as separate conditions without clear evidence supporting this distinction. In 2014, the Emergency Nutrition Network (ENN) examined the relationship between wasting and stunting and published a report highlighting the evidence for linkages between the two forms of undernutrition. This systematic review aimed to update the evidence generated since this 2014 report to better understand the implications for improving child nutrition, health and survival. Following PRISMA guidelines, this review was conducted using search terms to describe the relationship between wasting and stunting. Studies related to children under five from low- and middle-income countries that assessed both ponderal growth/wasting and linear growth/stunting, as well as the association between the two, were included. Risk of bias was assessed in all included studies using SIGN checklists. 45 studies met the inclusion criteria- 39 peer reviewed studies, 1 manual chapter, 3 pre-print publications and 2 published reports. The review found that there is a strong association between the two conditions whereby episodes of wasting contribute to stunting and, to a lesser extent, stunting leads to wasting. Possible interconnected physiological processes and common risk factors drive an accumulation of vulnerabilities. Peak incidence of both wasting and stunting was found to be between birth and three months. A significant proportion of children experience concurrent wasting and stunting- Country level data suggests that up to 8% of children under 5 may be both wasted and stunted at the same time, global estimates translate to around 16 million children. Children with concurrent wasting and stunting have an elevated risk of mortality when compared to children with one deficit alone. These children should therefore be considered a high-risk group in the targeting of treatment. Wasting, stunting and concurrent wasting and stunting appear to be more prevalent in boys than girls and it appears that concurrent wasting and stunting peaks between 12- 30 months of age with younger children being the most affected. Seasonal patterns in prevalence of both wasting and stunting are seen in longitudinal and cross sectional data and in particular season of birth has been shown to have an impact on a child’s subsequent experience of wasting and stunting. Evidence suggests that the use of mid-upper-arm circumference combined with weight-for-age Z-score might effectively identify children most at risk of near-term mortality, including those concurrently wasted and stunted. Wasting and stunting frequently occur in the same child, either simultaneously or at different moments through their life course. Evidence suggests there is a process of accumulation of nutritional deficits and therefore risk over the life course of a child demonstrates the need for a more integrated approach to prevention and treatment strategies to interrupt this process. To achieve this, undernutrition policies, programmes, financing and research must become more unified.

Keywords: Concurrent wasting and stunting, Review, Risk factors, Undernutrition

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Authors: Ying-Pin Chang

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This paper presents a method for combining a particle swarm optimization with nonlinear time-varying evolution and orthogonal arrays (PSO-NTVEOA) in the planning of harmonic filters for the high speed railway traction system with specially connected transformers in unbalanced three-phase power systems. The objective is to minimize the cost of the filter, the filters loss, the total harmonic distortion of currents and voltages at each bus simultaneously. An orthogonal array is first conducted to obtain the initial solution set. The set is then treated as the initial training sample. Next, the PSO-NTVEOA method parameters are determined by using matrix experiments with an orthogonal array, in which a minimal number of experiments would have an effect that approximates the full factorial experiments. This PSO-NTVEOA method is then applied to design optimal harmonic filters in Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR) traction system, where both rectifiers and inverters with IGBT are used. From the results of the illustrative examples, the feasibility of the PSO-NTVEOA to design an optimal passive harmonic filter of THSR system is verified and the design approach can greatly reduce the harmonic distortion. Three design schemes are compared that V-V connection suppressing the 3rd order harmonic, and Scott and Le Blanc connection for the harmonic improvement is better than the V-V connection.

Keywords: harmonic filters, particle swarm optimization, nonlinear time-varying evolution, orthogonal arrays, specially connected transformers

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 377