Search results for: trigonometric functions
1696 Application of the Motion Analysis System to Formulate Parameters Defining the Movement of the Upper Limbs during Various Types of Gait
Authors: Agata Matuszewska, Małgorzata Syczewska
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The movement of the upper limbs contributes significantly to balance control while walking in humans. However, the impact of different arm swing modes on gait stability is yet to be determined. This work intends to establish numerical parameters for assessing the arm swing. Nineteen people, comprising fifteen young, healthy individuals, two middle-aged individuals, and two individuals with dysfunctions, were analyzed using the movement analysis system. Proposed parameters such as ASᵢₐ (reflecting the arm swing amplitude) and Pearson’s correlation coefficient between the right and left upper limbs can be used to classify the type of movement task each participant performs. The results indicate that the ASᵢₐ parameter could potentially detect any abnormalities in upper limb functions, which may be due to musculoskeletal disorders or other malfunctions.Keywords: arm swing, human balance, interlimb coordination, motion analysis system
Procedia PDF Downloads 1681695 Integration of Constraints Related to Composite Materials in the Design of Industrial Products
Authors: A. Boumedine, K. Benfriha, S. Lecheb
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Manufacturing methods for products and structures made of composite materials reduce the number of parts and integrate technical functions, this advantage of composite materials leads to a lot of innovation but also to a reduction of costs and a gain in quality. A material has attributes: its density, it’s resistance, it’s cost, it’s resistance to corrosion. For the design of a product, a certain profile of these attributes is required: low density, resistance removed, low cost. The problem is then to identify this attribute profile and to compare it with those of the materials, in order to find the one that comes closest. The aim of this work is to demonstrate the feasibility of characterizing a mini turbine made of 3D printed fiber-filled composite material by the process of additive manufacturing, then compare the performance of the alloy turbine with the composite turbine according to the results of the simulation by Abaqus software.Keywords: additive manufacturing, composite materials, design, 3D printer, turbine
Procedia PDF Downloads 1341694 Simulation Approach for a Comparison of Linked Cluster Algorithm and Clusterhead Size Algorithm in Ad Hoc Networks
Authors: Ameen Jameel Alawneh
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A Mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is a collection of wireless mobile hosts that dynamically form a temporary network without the aid of a system administrator. It has neither fixed infrastructure nor wireless ad hoc sessions. It inherently reaches several nodes with a single transmission, and each node functions as both a host and a router. The network maybe represented as a set of clusters each managed by clusterhead. The cluster size is not fixed and it depends on the movement of nodes. We proposed a clusterhead size algorithm (CHSize). This clustering algorithm can be used by several routing algorithms for ad hoc networks. An elected clusterhead is assigned for communication with all other clusters. Analysis and simulation of the algorithm has been implemented using GloMoSim networks simulator, MATLAB and MAPL11 proved that the proposed algorithm achieves the goals.Keywords: simulation, MANET, Ad-hoc, cluster head size, linked cluster algorithm, loss and dropped packets
Procedia PDF Downloads 3911693 Developing Measurement Model of Interpersonal Skills of Youth
Authors: Mohd Yusri Ibrahim
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Although it is known that interpersonal skills are essential for personal development, the debate however continues as to how to measure those skills, especially in youths. This study was conducted to develop a measurement model of interpersonal skills by suggesting three construct namely personal, skills and relationship; six function namely self, perception, listening, conversation, emotion and conflict management; and 30 behaviours as indicators. This cross-sectional survey by questionnaires was applied in east side of peninsula of Malaysia for 150 respondents, and analyzed by structural equation modelling (SEM) by AMOS. The suggested constructs, functions and indicators were consider accepted as measurement elements by observing on regression weight for standard loading, average variance extracted (AVE) for convergent validity, square root of AVE for discriminant validity, composite reliability (CR), and at least three fit indexes for model fitness. Finally, a measurement model of interpersonal skill for youth was successfully developed.Keywords: interpersonal communication, interpersonal skill, youth, communication skill
Procedia PDF Downloads 3141692 The Construction of the Semigroup Which Is Chernoff Equivalent to Statistical Mixture of Quantizations for the Case of the Harmonic Oscillator
Authors: Leonid Borisov, Yuri Orlov
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We obtain explicit formulas of finitely multiple approximations of the equilibrium density matrix for the case of the harmonic oscillator using Chernoff's theorem and the notion of semigroup which is Chernoff equivalent to average semigroup. Also we found explicit formulas for the corresponding approximate Wigner functions and average values of the observable. We consider a superposition of τ -quantizations representing a wide class of linear quantizations. We show that the convergence of the approximations of the average values of the observable is not uniform with respect to the Gibbs parameter. This does not allow to represent approximate expression as the sum of the exact limits and small deviations evenly throughout the temperature range with a given order of approximation.Keywords: Chernoff theorem, Feynman formulas, finitely multiple approximation, harmonic oscillator, Wigner function
Procedia PDF Downloads 4391691 Design of Membership Ranges for Fuzzy Logic Control of Refrigeration Cycle Driven by a Variable Speed Compressor
Authors: Changho Han, Jaemin Lee, Li Hua, Seokkwon Jeong
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Design of membership function ranges in fuzzy logic control (FLC) is presented for robust control of a variable speed refrigeration system (VSRS). The criterion values of the membership function ranges can be carried out from the static experimental data, and two different values are offered to compare control performance. Some simulations and real experiments for the VSRS were conducted to verify the validity of the designed membership functions. The experimental results showed good agreement with the simulation results, and the error change rate and its sampling time strongly affected the control performance at transient state of the VSRS.Keywords: variable speed refrigeration system, fuzzy logic control, membership function range, control performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 2651690 An Axisymmetric Finite Element Method for Compressible Swirling Flow
Authors: Raphael Zanella, Todd A. Oliver, Karl W. Schulz
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This work deals with the finite element approximation of axisymmetric compressible flows with swirl velocity. We are interested in problems where the flow, while weakly dependent on the azimuthal coordinate, may have a strong azimuthal velocity component. We describe the approximation of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations with H1-conformal spaces of axisymmetric functions. The weak formulation is implemented in a C++ solver with explicit time marching. The code is first verified with a convergence test on a manufactured solution. The verification is completed by comparing the numerical and analytical solutions in a Poiseuille flow case and a Taylor-Couette flow case. The code is finally applied to the problem of a swirling subsonic air flow in a plasma torch geometry.Keywords: axisymmetric problem, compressible Navier-Stokes equations, continuous finite elements, swirling flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 1741689 Women Participation in Politics: Rights and Challenges: The Quranic Perspective
Authors: Abdul Azeez Badmus
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The extent to which women are allowed to express their liberty and freedom are varying in human society. Islam’s basic view of women postulates a complimentary function as the creator has created every living thing in pairs based on the foundation of complimentary functions, so the human species is not exceptional. It is also ubiquitous contention whether women should participate in politics or not; the limit to which women should participate in politics is another problem. This paper attempts to suggest a possible solution to the questions mentioned above, to review the level of participation of women in politics since the beginning of Islam and the Quranic injunctions that seem to have allowed or disallowed that. The paper adopts a historical and analytical approach, with special reference to the Quranic, Sunna, juristic opinions, and historical events. The paper advocates for proper reference to the authentic Islamic sources in determining the right and obligations of women in society.Keywords: politics, right, challenges, Qur’ān, perspective
Procedia PDF Downloads 1881688 Spatial Point Process Analysis of Dengue Fever in Tainan, Taiwan
Authors: Ya-Mei Chang
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This research is intended to apply spatio-temporal point process methods to the dengue fever data in Tainan. The spatio-temporal intensity function of the dataset is assumed to be separable. The kernel estimation is a widely used approach to estimate intensity functions. The intensity function is very helpful to study the relation of the spatio-temporal point process and some covariates. The covariate effects might be nonlinear. An nonparametric smoothing estimator is used to detect the nonlinearity of the covariate effects. A fitted parametric model could describe the influence of the covariates to the dengue fever. The correlation between the data points is detected by the K-function. The result of this research could provide useful information to help the government or the stakeholders making decisions.Keywords: dengue fever, spatial point process, kernel estimation, covariate effect
Procedia PDF Downloads 3511687 Localized Meshfree Methods for Solving 3D-Helmholtz Equation
Authors: Reza Mollapourasl, Majid Haghi
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In this study, we develop local meshfree methods known as radial basis function-generated finite difference (RBF-FD) method and Hermite finite difference (RBF-HFD) method to design stencil weights and spatial discretization for Helmholtz equation. The convergence and stability of schemes are investigated numerically in three dimensions with irregular shaped domain. These localized meshless methods incorporate the advantages of the RBF method, finite difference and Hermite finite difference methods to handle the ill-conditioning issue that often destroys the convergence rate of global RBF methods. Moreover, numerical illustrations show that the proposed localized RBF type methods are efficient and applicable for problems with complex geometries. The convergence and accuracy of both schemes are compared by solving a test problem.Keywords: radial basis functions, Hermite finite difference, Helmholtz equation, stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 991686 A Performance Analysis Study for Cloud Based ERP Systems
Authors: Burak Erkayman
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The manufacturing and service organizations are in the need of using ERP systems to integrate many functions from purchasing to storage, production planning to calculation of costs. Using ERP systems by the integration in the level of information provides companies remarkable advantages in terms of profitability, productivity and efficiency in processes. Cloud computing is one of the most significant changes in information and communication technology. The developments in Cloud Computing attract business world to take advantage of this field. Cloud Computing means much more storage area, more cost saving and faster data transfer rate. In addition to these, it presents new business models, new field of study and practicable solutions for anyone’s use. These developments make inevitable the implementation of ERP systems to cloud environment. In this study, the performance of ERP systems in cloud environment is analyzed through various performance criteria and a comparison between traditional and cloud-ERP systems is presented. At the end of study the transformation and the future of ERP systems is discussed.Keywords: cloud-ERP, ERP system performance, information system transformation
Procedia PDF Downloads 5291685 Cancellation of Transducer Effects from Frequency Response Functions: Experimental Case Study on the Steel Plate
Authors: P. Zamani, A. Taleshi Anbouhi, M. R. Ashory, S. Mohajerzadeh, M. M. Khatibi
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Modal analysis is a developing science in the experimental evaluation of dynamic properties of the structures. Mechanical devices such as accelerometers are one of the sources of lack of quality in measuring modal testing parameters. In this paper, eliminating the accelerometer’s mass effect of the frequency response of the structure is studied. So, a strategy is used for eliminating the mass effect by using sensitivity analysis. In this method, the amount of mass change and the place to measure the structure’s response with least error in frequency correction is chosen. Experimental modal testing is carried out on a steel plate and the effect of accelerometer’s mass is omitted using this strategy. Finally, a good agreement is achieved between numerical and experimental results.Keywords: accelerometer mass, frequency response function, modal analysis, sensitivity analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 4461684 On a Single Server Queue with Arrivals in Batches of Variable Size, Generalized Coxian-2 Service and Compulsory Server Vacations
Authors: Kailash C. Madan
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We study the steady state behaviour of a batch arrival single server queue in which the first service with general service times is compulsory and the second service with general service times is optional. We term such a two phase service as generalized Coxian-2 service. Just after completion of a service the server must take a vacation of random length of time with general vacation times. We obtain steady state probability generating functions for the queue size as well as the steady state mean queue size at a random epoch of time in explicit and closed forms. Some particular cases of interest including some known results have been derived.Keywords: batch arrivals, compound Poisson process, generalized Coxian-2 service, steady state
Procedia PDF Downloads 4551683 Synthesis of Dispersion-Compensating Triangular Lattice Index-Guiding Photonic Crystal Fibers Using the Directed Tabu Search Method
Authors: F. Karim
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In this paper, triangular lattice index-guiding photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) are synthesized to compensate the chromatic dispersion of a single mode fiber (SMF-28) for an 80 km optical link operating at 1.55 µm, by using the directed tabu search algorithm. Hole-to-hole distance, circular air-hole diameter, solid-core diameter, ring number and PCF length parameters are optimized for this purpose. Three Synthesized PCFs with different physical parameters are compared in terms of their objective functions values, residual dispersions and compensation ratios.Keywords: triangular lattice index-guiding photonic crystal fiber, dispersion compensation, directed tabu search, synthesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 4321682 Comparing Spontaneous Hydrolysis Rates of Activated Models of DNA and RNA
Authors: Mohamed S. Sasi, Adel M. Mlitan, Abdulfattah M. Alkherraz
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This research project aims to investigate difference in relative rates concerning phosphoryl transfer relevant to biological catalysis of DNA and RNA in the pH-independent reactions. Activated Models of DNA and RNA for alkyl-aryl phosphate diesters (with 4-nitrophenyl as a good leaving group) have successfully been prepared to gather kinetic parameters. Eyring plots for the pH–independent hydrolysis of 1 and 2 were established at different temperatures in the range 100–160 °C. These measurements have been used to provide a better estimate for the difference in relative rates between the reactivity of DNA and RNA cleavage. Eyring plot gave an extrapolated rate of kH2O = 1 × 10-10 s -1 for 1 (RNA model) and 2 (DNA model) at 25°C. Comparing the reactivity of RNA model and DNA model shows that the difference in relative rates in the pH-independent reactions is surprisingly very similar at 25°. This allows us to obtain chemical insights into how biological catalysts such as enzymes may have evolved to perform their current functions.Keywords: DNA and RNA models, relative rates, reactivity, phosphoryl transfe
Procedia PDF Downloads 4231681 Quantum Kernel Based Regressor for Prediction of Non-Markovianity of Open Quantum Systems
Authors: Diego Tancara, Raul Coto, Ariel Norambuena, Hoseein T. Dinani, Felipe Fanchini
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Quantum machine learning is a growing research field that aims to perform machine learning tasks assisted by a quantum computer. Kernel-based quantum machine learning models are paradigmatic examples where the kernel involves quantum states, and the Gram matrix is calculated from the overlapping between these states. With the kernel at hand, a regular machine learning model is used for the learning process. In this paper we investigate the quantum support vector machine and quantum kernel ridge models to predict the degree of non-Markovianity of a quantum system. We perform digital quantum simulation of amplitude damping and phase damping channels to create our quantum dataset. We elaborate on different kernel functions to map the data and kernel circuits to compute the overlapping between quantum states. We observe a good performance of the models.Keywords: quantum, machine learning, kernel, non-markovianity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1801680 Health Post A Sustainable Prototype for the Third World
Authors: Chizzoniti Domenico, Beggiora Klizia, Cattani Letizia, Moscatelli Monica
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This paper concerns the study of sustainable construction materials applied on the "Health Post", a prototype for the primary health care situated in alienated areas of the world. It's suitable for social and climatic Sub-Saharan context; however, it could be moved in other countries of the world with similar urgent needs. The idea is to create a Health Post with local construction materials that have a low environmental impact and promote the local workforce allowing reuse of traditional building techniques lowering production costs and transport. The aim of Primary Health Care Centre is to be a flexible and expandable structure identifying a modular form that can be repeated several times to expand its existing functions. In this way it could be not only a health care centre but also a socio-cultural facility.Keywords: low costs building, sustainable construction materials, green construction system, prototype, health care, emergency
Procedia PDF Downloads 4801679 Research on the Planning and Design of National Park Gateway Communities from the Perspective of Nature Education
Authors: Yulin Liang
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Under the background of protecting ecology, natural education is an effective way for people to understand nature. At the same time, it is a new means of sustainable development of eco-tourism, which can improve the functions of China's protected areas and develop new business formats for the development of national parks. This study takes national park gateway communities as the research object and uses literature review, inductive reasoning and other research methods to sort out the development process of natural education in China and the research progress of natural education design in national park gateway communities. Finally, we discuss how gateway communities can use natural education to transform their development methods and provide a theoretical and practical basis for the development of gateway communities in national parks.Keywords: natural education, gateway communities, national parks, sustainable development
Procedia PDF Downloads 661678 A Robust Software for Advanced Analysis of Space Steel Frames
Authors: Viet-Hung Truong, Seung-Eock Kim
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This paper presents a robust software package for practical advanced analysis of space steel framed structures. The pre- and post-processors of the presented software package are coded in the C++ programming language while the solver is written by using the FORTRAN programming language. A user-friendly graphical interface of the presented software is developed to facilitate the modeling process and result interpretation of the problem. The solver employs the stability functions for capturing the second-order effects to minimize modeling and computational time. Both the plastic-hinge and fiber-hinge beam-column elements are available in the presented software. The generalized displacement control method is adopted to solve the nonlinear equilibrium equations.Keywords: advanced analysis, beam-column, fiber-hinge, plastic hinge, steel frame
Procedia PDF Downloads 3071677 Distribution of Putative Dopaminergic Neurons and Identification of D2 Receptors in the Brain of Fish
Authors: Shweta Dhindhwal
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Dopamine is an essential neurotransmitter in the central nervous system of all vertebrates and plays an important role in many processes such as motor function, learning and behavior, and sensory activity. One of the important functions of dopamine is release of pituitary hormones. It is synthesized from the amino acid tyrosine. Two types of dopamine receptors, D1-like and D2-like, have been reported in fish. The dopamine containing neurons are located in the olfactory bulbs, the ventral regions of the pre-optic area and tuberal hypothalamus. Distribution of the dopaminergic system has not been studied in the murrel, Channa punctatus. The present study deals with identification of D2 receptors in the brain of murrel. A phylogenetic tree has been constructed using partial sequence of D2 receptor. Distribution of putative dopaminergic neurons in the brain has been investigated. Also, formalin induced hypertrophy of neurosecretory cells in murrel has been studied.Keywords: dopamine, fish, pre-optic area, murrel
Procedia PDF Downloads 4211676 Improving Working Memory in School Children through Chess Training
Authors: Veena Easvaradoss, Ebenezer Joseph, Sumathi Chandrasekaran, Sweta Jain, Aparna Anna Mathai, Senta Christy
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Working memory refers to a cognitive processing space where information is received, managed, transformed, and briefly stored. It is an operational process of transforming information for the execution of cognitive tasks in different and new ways. Many class room activities require children to remember information and mentally manipulate it. While the impact of chess training on intelligence and academic performance has been unequivocally established, its impact on working memory needs to be studied. This study, funded by the Cognitive Science Research Initiative, Department of Science & Technology, Government of India, analyzed the effect of one-year chess training on the working memory of children. A pretest–posttest with control group design was used, with 52 children in the experimental group and 50 children in the control group. The sample was selected from children studying in school (grades 3 to 9), which included both the genders. The experimental group underwent weekly chess training for one year, while the control group was involved in extracurricular activities. Working memory was measured by two subtests of WISC-IV INDIA. The Digit Span Subtest involves recalling a list of numbers of increasing length presented orally in forward and in reverse order, and the Letter–Number Sequencing Subtest involves rearranging jumbled alphabets and numbers presented orally following a given rule. Both tasks require the child to receive and briefly store information, manipulate it, and present it in a changed format. The Children were trained using Winning Moves curriculum, audio- visual learning method, hands-on- chess training and recording the games using score sheets, analyze their mistakes, thereby increasing their Meta-Analytical abilities. They were also trained in Opening theory, Checkmating techniques, End-game theory and Tactical principles. Pre equivalence of means was established. Analysis revealed that the experimental group had significant gains in working memory compared to the control group. The present study clearly establishes a link between chess training and working memory. The transfer of chess training to the improvement of working memory could be attributed to the fact that while playing chess, children evaluate positions, visualize new positions in their mind, analyze the pros and cons of each move, and choose moves based on the information stored in their mind. If working-memory’s capacity could be expanded or made to function more efficiently, it could result in the improvement of executive functions as well as the scholastic performance of the child.Keywords: chess training, cognitive development, executive functions, school children, working memory
Procedia PDF Downloads 2631675 Parameter Interactions in the Cumulative Prospect Theory: Fitting the Binary Choice Experiment Data
Authors: Elzbieta Babula, Juhyun Park
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Tversky and Kahneman’s cumulative prospect theory assumes symmetric probability cumulation with regard to the reference point within decision weights. Theoretically, this model should be invariant under the change of the direction of probability cumulation. In the present study, this phenomenon is being investigated by creating a reference model that allows verifying the parameter interactions in the cumulative prospect theory specifications. The simultaneous parametric fitting of utility and weighting functions is applied to binary choice data from the experiment. The results show that the flexibility of the probability weighting function is a crucial characteristic allowing to prevent parameter interactions while estimating cumulative prospect theory.Keywords: binary choice experiment, cumulative prospect theory, decision weights, parameter interactions
Procedia PDF Downloads 2151674 A New Class of Conjugate Gradient Methods Based on a Modified Search Direction for Unconstrained Optimization
Authors: Belloufi Mohammed, Sellami Badreddine
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Conjugate gradient methods have played a special role for solving large scale optimization problems due to the simplicity of their iteration, convergence properties and their low memory requirements. In this work, we propose a new class of conjugate gradient methods which ensures sufficient descent. Moreover, we propose a new search direction with the Wolfe line search technique for solving unconstrained optimization problems, a global convergence result for general functions is established provided that the line search satisfies the Wolfe conditions. Our numerical experiments indicate that our proposed methods are preferable and in general superior to the classical conjugate gradient methods in terms of efficiency and robustness.Keywords: unconstrained optimization, conjugate gradient method, sufficient descent property, numerical comparisons
Procedia PDF Downloads 4051673 Accelerating the Uptake of Smart City Applications through Cloud Computing
Authors: Panagiotis Tsarchopoulos, Nicos Komninos, Christina Kakderi
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Smart cities are high on the political agenda around the globe. However, planning smart cities and deploying applications dealing with the complex problems of the urban environment is a very challenging task that is difficult to be undertaken solely by the cities. We argue that the uptake of smart city strategies is facilitated, first, through the development of smart city application repositories allowing re-use of already developed and tested software, and, second, through cloud computing which disengages city authorities from any resource constraints, technical or financial, and has a higher impact and greater effect at the city level The combination of these two solutions allows city governments and municipalities to select and deploy a large number of applications dedicated to different city functions, which collectively could create a multiplier effect with a greater impact on the urban environment.Keywords: smart cities, applications, cloud computing, migration to the cloud, application repositories
Procedia PDF Downloads 3561672 Marketing–Operations Alignment: A Systematic Literature and Citation Network Analysis Review
Authors: Kedwadee Sombultawee, Sakun Boon-Itt
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This research demonstrates a systematic literature review of 62 peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals from 2000-2016 focusing on the operation and marketing interface area. The findings show the three major clusters of recent research domains, which is a review of the alignment between operations and marketing, identification of variables that impact the company and analysis of the effect of interface. Moreover, the Main Path Analysis (MPA) is mapped to show the knowledge structure of the operation and marketing interface issue. Most of the empirical research focused on company performance and new product development then analyzed the data by the structural equation model or regression. Whereas, some scholars studied the conflict of these two functions and proposed the requirement or step for alignment. Finally, the gaps in the literature are provided for future research directions.Keywords: operations management, marketing, interface, systematic literature review
Procedia PDF Downloads 2751671 Model Order Reduction Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing
Authors: Khaled Salah
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Model order reduction has been one of the most challenging topics in the past years. In this paper, a hybrid solution of genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing algorithm (SA) are used to approximate high-order transfer functions (TFs) to lower-order TFs. In this approach, hybrid algorithm is applied to model order reduction putting in consideration improving accuracy and preserving the properties of the original model which are two important issues for improving the performance of simulation and computation and maintaining the behavior of the original complex models being reduced. Compared to conventional mathematical methods that have been used to obtain a reduced order model of high order complex models, our proposed method provides better results in terms of reducing run-time. Thus, the proposed technique could be used in electronic design automation (EDA) tools.Keywords: genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, model reduction, transfer function
Procedia PDF Downloads 1431670 Research on Community-based Nature Education Design at the Gateway Communities of National Parks
Authors: Yulin Liang
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Under the background of protecting ecology, natural education is an effective way for people to understand nature. At the same time, it is a new means of sustainable development of eco-tourism, which can improve the functions of China 's protected areas and develop new business formats for the development of national parks. This study takes national park gateway communities as the research object and uses literature review, inductive reasoning and other research methods to sort out the development process of natural education in China and the research progress of natural education design in national park gateway communities. Finally, it discuss how gateway communities can use natural education to transform their development methods and provide theoretical and practical basis for the development of gateway communities in national parks.Keywords: nature education, gateway communities, national park, sustainable development
Procedia PDF Downloads 601669 Estimation and Forecasting with a Quantile AR Model for Financial Returns
Authors: Yuzhi Cai
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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions
Procedia PDF Downloads 3471668 Comparative Study of Ecological City Criteria in Traditional Iranian Cities
Authors: Zahra Yazdani Paraii, Zohreh Yazdani Paraei
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Many urban designers and planners have been involved in the design of environmentally friendly or nature adaptable urban development models due to increase in urban populations in the recent century, limitation on natural resources, climate change, and lack of enough water and food. Ecological city is one of the latest models proposed to accomplish the latter goal. In this work, the existing establishing indicators of the ecological city are used regarding energy, water, land use and transportation issues. The model is used to compare the function of traditional settlements of Iran. The result of investigation shows that the specifications and functions of the traditional settlements of Iran fit well into the ecological city model. It is found that the inhabitants of the old cities and villages in Iran had founded ecological cities based on their knowledge of the environment and its natural opportunities and limitations.Keywords: ecological city, traditional city, urban design, environment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2531667 A Resilience Process Model of Natural Gas Pipeline Systems
Authors: Zhaoming Yang, Qi Xiang, Qian He, Michael Havbro Faber, Enrico Zio, Huai Su, Jinjun Zhang
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Resilience is one of the key factors for system safety assessment and optimization, and resilience studies of natural gas pipeline systems (NGPS), especially in terms of process descriptions, are still being explored. Based on the three main stages, which are function loss process, recovery process, and waiting process, the paper has built functions and models which are according to the practical characteristics of NGPS and mainly analyzes the characteristics of deterministic interruptions. The resilience of NGPS also considers the threshold of the system function or users' satisfaction. The outcomes, which quantify the resilience of NGPS in different evaluation views, can be combined with the max flow and shortest path methods, help with the optimization of extra gas supplies and gas routes as well as pipeline maintenance strategies, the quick analysis of disturbance effects and the improvement of NGPS resilience evaluation accuracy.Keywords: natural gas pipeline system, resilience, process modeling, deterministic disturbance
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