Search results for: reserve estimation

Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: Ayman Baklizi

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Based on type II censored data, we consider interval estimation of the quantiles of the two-parameter exponential distribution and the difference between the quantiles of two independent two-parameter exponential distributions. We derive asymptotic intervals, Bayesian, as well as intervals based on the generalized pivot variable. We also include some bootstrap intervals in our comparisons. The performance of these intervals is investigated in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths.

Keywords: asymptotic intervals, Bayes intervals, bootstrap, generalized pivot variables, two-parameter exponential distribution, quantiles

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Authors: Idit Kalisher, Israel Luski

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One result of the growing dynamicity of labor markets in recent decades is a wider scope of employment mobility – i.e., transitions between employers, either within or between careers. Employment mobility decisions are primarily affected by the current employment status of the worker, which is reflected in wage and tenure. Using 34,328 observations from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLS79), which were derived from the USA population between 1990 and 2012, this paper aims to investigate the effects of wage and tenure over employment mobility choices, and additionally to examine the effects of other personal characteristics, individual labor market characteristics and macroeconomic factors. The estimation strategy was designed to address two challenges that arise from the combination of the model and the data: (a) endogeneity of the wage and the tenure in the choice equation; and (b) unobserved heterogeneity, as the data of this research is longitudinal. To address (a), estimation was performed using two-stage limited dependent variable procedure (2SLDV); and to address (b), the second stage was estimated using femlogit – an implementation of the multinomial logit model with fixed effects. Among workers who have experienced at least one turnover, the wage was found to have a main effect on career turnover likelihood of all workers, whereas the wage effect on job turnover likelihood was found to be dependent on individual characteristics. The wage was found to negatively affect the turnover likelihood and the effect was found to vary across wage level: high-wage workers were more affected compared to low-wage workers. Tenure was found to have a main positive effect on both turnover types’ likelihoods, though the effect was moderated by the wage. The findings also reveal that as their wage increases, women are more likely to turnover than men, and academically educated workers are more likely to turnover within careers. Minorities were found to be as likely as Caucasians to turnover post wage-increase, but less likely to turnover with each additional tenure year. The wage and the tenure effects were found to vary also between careers. The difference in attitude towards money, labor market opportunities and risk aversion could explain these findings. Additionally, the likelihood of a turnover was found to be affected by previous unemployment spells, age, and other labor market and personal characteristics. The results of this research could assist policymakers as well as business owners and employers. The former may be able to encourage women and older workers’ employment by considering the effects of gender and age on the probability of a turnover, and the latter may be able to assess their employees’ likelihood of a turnover by considering the effects of their personal characteristics.

Keywords: employment mobility, endogeneity, femlogit, turnover

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Authors: C. Romero, R. Ortega, P. Sánchez-Camacho, P. Aguilar, V. Segur, J. Ruiz, G. Gutiérrez

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Introduction: Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in CLM. (2.8% of all deaths in women and 13,8% of deaths from tumors in womens). It is the most tumor incidence in CLM region with 26.1% from all tumours, except nonmelanoma skin (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume X, IARC). Cancer registries are a good information source to estimate cancer incidence, however the data are usually available with a lag which makes difficult their use for health managers. By contrast, mortality and survival statistics have less delay. In order to serve for resource planning and responding to this problem, a method is presented to estimate the incidence of mortality and survival data. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of breast cancer by age group in CLM in the period 1991-2013. Comparing the data obtained from the model with current incidence data. Sources: Annual number of women by single ages (National Statistics Institute). Annual number of deaths by all causes and breast cancer. (Mortality Registry CLM). The Breast cancer relative survival probability. (EUROCARE, Spanish registries data). Methods: A Weibull Parametric survival model from EUROCARE data is obtained. From the model of survival, the population and population data, Mortality and Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) regression model is obtained to estimate the incidence of cancer by age (1991-2013). Results: The resulting model is: Ix,t = Logit [const + age1*x + age2*x2 + coh1*(t – x) + coh2*(t-x)2] Where: Ix,t is the incidence at age x in the period (year) t; the value of the parameter estimates is: const (constant term in the model) = -7.03; age1 = 3.31; age2 = -1.10; coh1 = 0.61 and coh2 = -0.12. It is estimated that in 1991 were diagnosed in CLM 662 cases of breast cancer (81.51 per 100,000 women). An estimated 1,152 cases (112.41 per 100,000 women) were diagnosed in 2013, representing an increase of 40.7% in gross incidence rate (1.9% per year). The annual average increases in incidence by age were: 2.07% in women aged 25-44 years, 1.01% (45-54 years), 1.11% (55-64 years) and 1.24% (65-74 years). Cancer registries in Spain that send data to IARC declared 2003-2007 the average annual incidence rate of 98.6 cases per 100,000 women. Our model can obtain an incidence of 100.7 cases per 100,000 women. Conclusions: A sharp and steady increase in the incidence of breast cancer in the period 1991-2013 is observed. The increase was seen in all age groups considered, although it seems more pronounced in young women (25-44 years). With this method you can get a good estimation of the incidence.

Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, cancer registries, castilla-la mancha

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Authors: Bo-Jian Wu, Si-Heng Wu

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Objectives: Frailty is a condition of a person who has chronic health problems complicated by a loss of physiological reserve and deteriorating functional abilities. The frailty syndrome was defined by Fried and colleagues, i.e., weight loss, fatigue, decreased grip strength, slow gait speed, and low physical activity. However, to our best knowledge, there have been rare studies exploring the prevalence of frailty and its association with falls in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: A total of 559 hospitalized patients were recruited from a public psychiatric hospital in 2013. The majority of the subjects were males (361, 64.6%). The average age was 53.5 years. All patients received the assessment of frailty status defined by Fried and colleagues. The status of a fall within one year after the assessment of frailty, clinical and demographic data was collected from medical records. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio of associated factors. Results : A total of 9.2% of the participants met the criteria of frailty. The percentage of patients having a fall was 7.2%. Age were significantly associated with frailty (odds ratio = 1.057, 95% confidence interval = 1.025-1.091); however, sex was not associated with frailty (p = 0.17). After adjustment for age and sex, frailty status was associated with a fall (odds ratio = 3.62, 95% confidence interval = 1.58-8.28). Concerning the components of frailty, decreased grip strength (odds ratio = 2.44, 95% confidence interval = 1.16-5.14), slow gait speed (odds ratio = 2.82, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-6.53), and low physical activity (odds ratio = 2.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-5.78) were found to be associated with a fall. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the prevalence of frailty was about 10% in hospitalized patients with chronic patients with schizophrenia, and frailty status was significant with a fall in this group. By using the status of frailty, it may be beneficial to potential target candidates having fallen in the future as early as possible. The effective intervention of prevention of further falls may be given in advance. Our results bridge this gap and open a potential avenue for the prevention of falls in patients with schizophrenia. Frailty is certainly an important factor for maintaining wellbeing among these patients.

Keywords: fall, frailty, schizophrenia, Taiwan

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Authors: Fouzia Qamar, Shahida Hasnain

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The objective of the present study was to evaluate the possible role of Agrobacterium tumefaciens as a possible insect biocontrol agent. Pests selected for the present challenge were adult males of Periplaneta americana and last instar larvae of Pieris brassicae and Spodoptera litura. Different ranges of bacterial doses were selected and tested to score the mortalities of the insects after 24 hours, for the lethal dose estimation studies. Mode of application for the inoculation of the bacteria, was the microinjection technique. The evaluation of the possible entomopathogenic carrying attribute of bacterial Ti plasmid, led to the conclusion that the loss of plasmid was associated with the loss of virulence against target insects.

Keywords: agrobacterium tumefaciens, toxicity assessment, biopesticidal attribute, entomopathogenic agent

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Authors: Geetika Richa, M. L. Sharma

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Bamboo as an ancient herbal medicine has been used for thousands of years in Asia and goes by many names such as tabashir, banslochan etc. It is often used for its tonic and astringent properties. Modern analysis of bamboos show high amount of vitamins and minerals which makes them valuable as a curative. Bamboo leaf decoction and young shoots are known as remedy for intestinal worms, healing of ulcers and stomach disorders. Bamboos are known to be propagated by large scale plantations but propagation through seeds occurs very limited as they have very short viability of few months. Seeds loses viability over a period of time even under controlled conditions and important factors that affect seed viability is the decline in reserve food material, decrease in membrane integrity and fall in endogenous level of growth hormones. Invigoration treatments that include hydration, dehydration, incorporation of bioactive chemicals such as growth regulators, nutrients and antioxidants etc. improve the seed performance. Our studies were aimed to determine the most effective invigoration treatments to enhance vigour and viability of seeds by following invigoration treatments, i.e., hardening. Treated seeds were stored at controlled temperature and humidity (in desiccators at 4°C). In hardening, chemicals were applied in 3 different concentrations to three replicates of 10 seeds. Hardening was done withGA3, IAA, (each with concentrations of 10 ppm, 20 ppm and 50 ppm), calcium oxychloride, neem leaf powder and clay (each with concentrations of 2%, 5% and 10%). Statistically all the hardening materials were effective but GA3 50 ppm was the most effective one in maintaining germination percentage and vigour index. Hardening treatments increased the germination percentage of seeds, i.e. 86.2%, over control which showed germination percentage of 80.2%. It was concluded that in order to maintain seed viability during storage for longer period of time, invigoration treatments have been found to be very effective.

Keywords: invigoration, seed quality, viability, hardening, membrane integrity, decoction

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Authors: Geeta Kumari, Prabu Vairakannu

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Underground coal gasification (UCG) technology is an efficient and an economic in-situ clean coal technology, which converts unmineable coals into calorific valuable gases. This technology avoids ash disposal, coal mining, and storage problems. CO₂ gas can be a potential gasifying medium for UCG. CO₂ is a greenhouse gas and, the liberation of this gas to the atmosphere from thermal power plant industries leads to global warming. Hence, the capture and reutilization of CO₂ gas are crucial for clean energy production. However, the reactivity of high ash Indian coals with CO₂ needs to be assessed. In the present study, two varieties of Indian coals (low ash and high ash) are used for thermogravimetric analyses (TGA). Two low ash north east Indian coals (LAC) and a typical high ash Indian coal (HAC) are procured from the coal mines of India. Low ash coal with 9% ash (LAC-1) and 4% ash (LAC-2) and high ash coal (HAC) with 42% ash are used for the study. TGA studies are carried out to evaluate the activation energy for pyrolysis and gasification of coal under N₂ and CO₂ atmosphere. Coats and Redfern method is used to estimate the activation energy of coal under different temperature regimes. Volumetric model is assumed for the estimation of the activation energy. The activation energy estimated under different temperature range. The inherent properties of coals play a major role in their reactivity. The results show that the activation energy decreases with the decrease in the inherent percentage of coal ash due to the ash layer hindrance. A reverse trend was observed with volatile matter. High volatile matter of coal leads to the estimation of low activation energy. It was observed that the activation energy under CO₂ atmosphere at 400-600°C is less as compared to N₂ inert atmosphere. At this temperature range, it is estimated that 15-23% reduction in the activation energy under CO₂ atmosphere. This shows the reactivity of CO₂ gas with higher hydrocarbons of the coal volatile matters. The reactivity of CO₂ with the volatile matter of coal might occur through dry reforming reaction in which CO₂ reacts with higher hydrocarbon, aromatics of the tar content. The observed trend of Ea in the temperature range of 150-200˚C and 400-600˚C is HAC > LAC-1 >LAC-2 in both N₂ and CO₂ atmosphere. At the temperature range of 850-1000˚C, higher activation energy is estimated when compared to those values in the temperature range of 400-600°C. Above 800°C, char gasification through Boudouard reaction progressed under CO₂ atmosphere. It was observed that 8-20 kJ/mol of activation energy is increased during char gasification above 800°C compared to volatile matter pyrolysis between the temperature ranges of 400-600°C. The overall activation energy of the coals in the temperature range of 30-1000˚C is higher in N₂ atmosphere than CO₂ atmosphere. It can be concluded that higher hydrocarbons such as tar effectively undergoes cracking and reforming reactions in presence of CO₂. Thus, CO₂ gas is beneficial for the production of high calorific value syngas using high ash Indian coals.

Keywords: clean coal technology, CO₂ gasification, activation energy, underground coal gasification

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh

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In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.

Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy

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Authors: Edwin Lerch, Dirk Audring, Cuong Nguyen Mau, Duc Ninh Nguyen, The Cuong Nguyen, The Van Nguyen

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The National Load Dispatch Centre of Electricity Vietnam (EVNNLDC) and Siemens PTI investigated the stability of the electrical 500/220 kV transportation system of Vietnam. The general scope of the investigations is improving the stability of the Vietnam power system and giving the EVNNLDC staff the capability to decide how to deal with expected stability challenges in the future, which are related to the very fast growth of the system. Rapid system growth leads to a very high demand of power transmission from North to South. This was investigated by stability studies of interconnected power system with neighboring countries. These investigations are performed in close cooperation and coordination with the EVNNLDC project team. This important project includes data collection, measurement, model validation and investigation of relevant stability phenomena as well as training of the EVNNLDC staff. Generally, the power system of Vietnam has good voltage and dynamic stability. The main problems are related to the longitudinal system with more power generation in the North and Center, especially hydro power, and load centers in the South of Vietnam. Faults on the power transmission system from North to South risks the stability of the entire system due to a high power transfer from North to South and high loading of the 500 kV backbone. An additional problem is the weak connection to Cambodia power system which leads to interarea oscillations mode. Therefore, strengthening the power transfer capability by new 500kV lines or HVDC connection and balancing the power generation across the country will solve many challenges. Other countermeasures, such as wide area load shedding, PSS tuning and correct SVC placement will improve and stabilize the power system as well. Primary frequency reserve should be increased.

Keywords: dynamic power transmission system studies, blackout prevention, power system interconnection, stability

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Authors: Luís Miguel Cabeça Marques, Alberto Manuel Martinho Vale, José Pedro Miragaia Trancoso Vaz, Ana Sofia Baptista Fernandes, Rui Alexandre de Barros Coito, Tiago Miguel Prates da Costa

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The detection and localization of hidden radioactive sources are of significant importance in countering the illicit traffic of Special Nuclear Materials and other radioactive sources and materials. Radiation portal monitors are commonly used at airports, seaports, and international land borders for inspecting cargo and vehicles. However, these equipment can be expensive and are not available at all checkpoints. Consequently, the localization of SNM and other radioactive sources often relies on handheld equipment, which can be time-consuming. The current study presents the advantages of real-time analysis of gamma-ray count rate data from a mobile radiation detection system based on simulated data and field tests. The incorporation of profit functions and decision criteria to optimize the detection system's path significantly enhances the radiation field information and reduces survey time during cargo inspection. For source position estimation, a maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is employed, and confidence intervals are derived using the Fisher information. The study also explores the impact of uncertainties, baselines, and thresholds on the performance of the profit function. The proposed detection system, utilizing a plastic scintillator with silicon photomultiplier sensors, boasts several benefits, including cost-effectiveness, high geometric efficiency, compactness, and lightweight design. This versatility allows for seamless integration into any mobile platform, be it air, land, maritime, or hybrid, and it can also serve as a handheld device. Furthermore, integration of the detection system into drones, particularly multirotors, and its affordability enable the automation of source search and substantial reduction in survey time, particularly when deploying a fleet of drones. While the primary focus is on inspecting maritime container cargo, the methodologies explored in this research can be applied to the inspection of other infrastructures, such as nuclear facilities or vehicles.

Keywords: plastic scintillators, profit functions, path planning, gamma-ray detection, source localization, mobile radiation detection system, security scenario

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Authors: Sunday Nathaniel Obasi, Chiamak Chinasa Obasi

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Soil characterization and classification provide the basic information necessary to create a functional evaluation and soil classification schemes. Fertility capability classification (FCC) on the other hand is a technical system that groups the soils according to kinds of problems they present for management of soil physical and chemical properties. This research was carried out in Ebonyi state, southeastern Nigeria, which is an agrarian state and a leading rice producing part of southeastern Nigeria. In order to maximize the soil and enhance the productivity of rice in Ebonyi soils, soil classification, and fertility classification information need to be supplied. The state was grouped into three locations according to their agricultural zones namely; Ebonyi north, Ebonyi central and Ebonyi south representing Abakaliki, Ikwo and Ivo locations respectively. Major rice growing areas of the soils were located and two profile pits were sunk in each of the studied zones from which soils were characterized, classified and fertility capability classification (FCC) developed. Soil classification was done using United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Soil Taxonomy and correlated with World Reference Base for soil resources. Results obtained classified Abakaliki 1 and Abakaliki 2 as Typic Fluvaquents (Ochric Fluvisols). Ikwo 1 was classified as Vertic Eutrudepts (Eutric Vertisols) while Ikwo 2 was classified as Typic Eutrudepts (Eutric Cambisols). Ivo 1 and Ivo 2 were both classified as Aquic Eutrudepts (Gleyic Leptosols). Fertility capability classification (FCC) revealed that all studied soils had mostly loamy topsoils and subsoils except Ikwo 1 with clayey topsoil. Limitations encountered in the studied soils include; dryness (d), low ECEC (e), low nutrient capital reserve (k) and water logging/ anaerobic condition (gley). Thus, FCC classifications were Ldek for Abakaliki 1 and 2, Ckv for Ikwo 1, LCk for Ikwo 2 while Ivo 1 and 2 were Legk and Lgk respectively.

Keywords: soil classification, soil fertility, limitations, modifiers, Southeastern Nigeria

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Authors: J. Valach, S. Pospisil, S. Kuznecov

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The paper deals with experimental estimation of future environmental load on medieval mosaic of Last Judgement on entrance to St. Vitus cathedral on Prague castle. The mosaic suffers from seasonal changes of weather pattern, as well as rains, their acidity, deposition of dust and sooth particles from polluted air and also from freeze-thaw cycles. These phenomena influence state of the mosaic. The mosaic elements, tesserae are mostly made from glass prone to weathering. To estimate future procedure of the best maintenance, relation between various weather scenarios and their effect on the mosaic was investigated. At the same time local method for evaluation of protective coating was developed. Together both methods will contribute to better care for the mosaic and also visitors aesthetical experience.

Keywords: environmental load, cultural heritage, glass mosaic, protection

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Authors: Sumit Roy, A. Uddin

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One of the significant reasons that increase the delay time in the intersections at heterogeneous traffic condition is a sudden reduction of the capacity of the roads. In this study, the delay for this sudden capacity reduction is estimated. Two intersections at Dhaka city were brought in to thestudy, i.e., Kakrail intersection, and SAARC Foara intersection. At Kakrail intersection, the sudden reduction of capacity in the roads is seen at three downstream legs of the intersection, which are because of slowing down or stopping of buses for loading and unloading of passengers. At SAARC Foara intersection, sudden reduction of capacity was seen at two downstream legs. At one leg, it was due to loading and unloading of buses, and at another leg, it was for both loading and unloading of buses and reduction of the number of lanes. With these considerations, the delay due to intentional stoppage or slowing down of buses and reduction of the number of lanes for these two intersections are estimated. Here the delay was calculated by two approaches. The first approach came from the concept of shock waves in traffic streams. Here the delay was calculated by determining the flow, density, and speed before and after the sudden capacity reduction. The second approach came from the deterministic analysis of queues. Here the delay is calculated by determining the volume, capacity and reduced capacity of the road. After determining the delay from these two approaches, the results were compared. For this study, the video of each of the two intersections was recorded for one hour at the evening peak. Necessary geometric data were also taken to determine speed, flow, and density, etc. parameters. The delay was calculated for one hour with one-hour data at both intersections. In case of Kakrail intersection, the per hour delay for Kakrail circle leg was 5.79, and 7.15 minutes, for Shantinagar cross intersection leg they were 13.02 and 15.65 minutes, and for Paltan T intersection leg, they were 3 and 1.3 minutes for 1st and 2nd approaches respectively. In the case of SAARC Foara intersection, the delay at Shahbag leg was only due to intentional stopping or slowing down of busses, which were 3.2 and 3 minutes respectively for both approaches. For the Karwan Bazar leg, the delays for buses by both approaches were 5 and 7.5 minutes respectively, and for reduction of the number of lanes, the delays for both approaches were 2 and 1.78 minutes respectively. Measuring the delay per hour for the Kakrail leg at Kakrail circle, it is seen that, with consideration of the first approach of delay estimation, the intentional stoppage and lowering of speed by buses contribute to 26.24% of total delay at Kakrail circle. If the loading and unloading of buses at intersection is made forbidden near intersection, and any other measures for loading and unloading of passengers are established far enough from the intersections, then the delay at intersections can be reduced at significant scale, and the performance of the intersections can be enhanced.

Keywords: delay, deterministic queue analysis, shock wave, passenger loading-unloading

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Authors: Lina Pan

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In non-Gaussian clutter of a spherically invariant random vector, in the cases that a certain estimated covariance matrix could become singular, the adaptive target detection of high-range-resolution radar is addressed. Firstly, the restricted maximum likelihood (RML) estimates of unknown covariance matrix and scatterer amplitudes are derived for non-Gaussian clutter. And then the RML estimate of texture is obtained. Finally, a novel detector is devised. It is showed that, without secondary data, the proposed detector outperforms the existing Kelly binary integrator.

Keywords: non-Gaussian clutter, covariance matrix estimation, target detection, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Meng-Li Lin, Shang-Hsuan Chiu

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Taiwan is a country of diverse ethnic groups, the historical background of each ethnic group is different, and the conflict between them influence on each other, result in Taiwan's multi-culture. The Changhua County in Taiwan is the largest county of Hoklo-Hakka. Hakka people get along with Hoklo people for a long time. There are integration and conflict during that time and makes Hakka people gradually assimilated Hoklo-Hakka people. Today in Changhua Plain area, many Hoklo-Hakka people do not speak Hakka language. Therefore, it has been difficult to find information of Hakka from the Hakka language in the group of Hoklo-Hakka. But in the living space or culture to find relevant historical traces of life could be confirmed in Hakka Culture. In this paper, through the investigation of descent, life field, religion, language and other investigations of the Dacun, Changhua County residents to carry out the analysis of the process of assimilating Hoklo in living cultural landscape. First is through the local literature, the elderly and other oral history stories, to investigate the changes in Dacun field historical. Second, the comparison of collected traditional Hakka culture and the living cultural landscape of Hoklo-Haka are done to explore the differences between the living cultural landscape and the traditional Hakka culture. After analysis Hoklo-Hakka living cultural landscape, the significant differences, we proposed preservation strategy to provide recommendations to save the cultural life of Hoklo-Hakka landscape in future. Changhua Dacun traditional Hakka landscape is disappearing, in this study, we explore and investigate the data of Changhua Dacun Hoklo-Hakka living cultural landscape to analyze and to provide strategic advice to save. Here we have three study purposes. 1. Discuss the Hoklo-Hakka living cultural landscape of Changhua Dacun. 2. Investigate and record the Hoklo-Hakka living cultural landscape. 3. Propose a reserve strategy of the Hoklo-Hakka living cultural landscape in future.

Keywords: Hoklo-Hakka, Dacun, save policy, life Culture

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Authors: Moh'd Alodat

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In this paper, we discuss the power function distribution and derive the maximum likelihood estimator of its parameter as well as the reliability parameter. We derive the large sample properties of the estimators based on the selective order statistic scheme. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the significance of the selective order statistic scheme in our setup and to compare the efficiency of the new proposed estimators.

Keywords: fisher information, maximum likelihood estimator, power function distribution, ranked set sampling, selective order statistics sampling

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Authors: Ahmet Y. Arabul, Ibrahim Senol, Fatma Keskin Arabul, Mustafa G. Aydeniz, Yasemin Oner, Gokhan Kalkan

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In the standards of IEC 60076-2 and IEC 60076-7, three different hot-spot temperature estimation methods are suggested. In this study, the algorithms which used in hot-spot temperature calculations are analyzed by comparing the algorithms with the results of an experimental set-up made by a Transformer Monitoring System (TMS) in use. In tested system, TMS uses only top oil temperature and load ratio for hot-spot temperature calculation. And also, it uses some constants from standards which are on agreed statements tables. During the tests, it came out that hot-spot temperature calculation method is just making a simple calculation and not uses significant all other variables that could affect the hot-spot temperature.

Keywords: Hot-spot temperature, monitoring system, power transformer, smart grid

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Authors: Qian Zhao, Shi-Qi Liu, Bo Guo, Zhi-Jun Cheng, Xiao-Yue Wu

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Cold standby redundancy is considered to be an effective mechanism for improving system reliability and is widely used in industrial engineering. However, because of the complexity of the reliability structure, there is little literature studying on the residual life of cold standby system consisting of complex components. In this paper, a simulation method is presented to predict the residual life of k-out-of-n cold standby system. In practical cases, failure information of a system is either unknown, partly unknown or completely known. Our proposed method is designed to deal with the three scenarios, respectively. Differences between the procedures are analyzed. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed simulation method.

Keywords: cold standby system, k-out-of-n, residual life, simulation sampling

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Authors: Priti S. Tidke, Chandragouda R. Patil

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The present study was designed to investigate the effect of Magnesia phosphorica, a biochemical medicine on urine screeing, biochemical, histopathological, and electron microscopic images in ethylene glycol induced nepholithiasis in rats.Male Wistar albino rats were divided into six groups and were orally administered saline once daily (IR-sham and IR-control) or Magnesia phosphorica 100 mg/kg twice daily for 24 days.The effect of various dilutions of biochemical Mag phos3x, 6x, 30x was determined on urine output by comparing the urine volume collected by keeping individual animals in metabolic cages. Calcium oxalate urolithiasis and hyperoxaluria in male Wistar rats was induced by oral administration of 0.75% Ethylene glycol p.o. daily for 24 days. Simultaneous administration of biochemical 3x, 6x, 30xMag phos (100mg/kg p.o. twice a day) along with ethylene glycol significantly decreased calcium oxalate, urea, creatinine, Calcium, Magnesium, Chloride, Phosphorus, Albumin, Alkaline Phosphatase content in urine compared with vehicle-treated control group.After the completion of treatment period animals were sacrificed, kidneys were removed and subjected to microscopic examination for possible stone formation. Histological estimation of kidney treated with biochemical Mag phos (3x, 6x, 30xMag phos 100 mg/kg, p.o.) along with ethylene glycol inhibited the growth of calculi and reduced the number of stones in kidney compared with control group. Biochemical Mag phos of 3x dilution and its crude equivalent also showed potent diuretic and antiurolithiatic activity in ethylene glycol induced urolithiasis. A significant decrease in the weight of stones was observed after treatment in animals which received biochemical Mag phos of 3x dilution and its crude equivalent in comparison with control groups. From this study, it can be proposed that the 3x dilution of biochemical Mag phos exhibits a significant inhibitory effect on crystal growth, with the improvement of kidney function and substantiates claims on the biological activity of twelve tissue remedies which can be proved scientifically through laboratory animal studies.

Keywords: Mag phos, Magnesia phosphorica, ciochemic medicine, urolithiasis, kidney stone, ethylene glycol

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Authors: Said Moqeem Sadat, Saito Takahiro, Inuzuka Norikazu, Sugiyama Ikuo

Abstract:

Kabul city is the capital of Afghanistan with a population of about 4.0 million in 2009 and 6.5 million in 2025. It is geographically located in a narrow plain valley along the Kabul River and is surrounded by high mountains. Due to its sharp geological condition, the city has been suffering from floods caused by storm water and snow melting water in the rainy season. Meanwhile, potable water resources are becoming a critical issue as the underground water table is decreasing falling rapidly due to domestic usage, industrial and agricultural activities usage especially in the dry season. This paper focuses on flood water management in Kabul including suburban agricultural area considering not only for flood protection but also: 1. To reserve the quality underground water for the future population growth. 2. To irrigate farming area in dry season using storm water ponds in rainy season. 3. To discharge city contaminated flood water to the downstream safely using existing channels/new pipes. Cost and benefit is considered in this study to find out a suitable flood protection method both in rural area and city center from a view point of 1 to 3 mentioned above. In this analysis, cost mainly consists of lost opportunity to develop lands due to flood ponds in addition to construction and maintenance one including connecting channels for water collecting/discharging. Benefit mainly consists of damage reduction of flood loss due to counter measures (this is corresponding cost) in addition to the contribution to agricultural crops. As far as reservation of the ground water for the future city growth is concerned, future demand and supply are compared in case that the pumping amount is limited by this irrigation system.

Keywords: cost-benefit, hydrological modeling, water management, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Somveer Singh, Vineet Kumar Singh

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We present a new model based on viscoelasticity for the Non-Newtonian fluids.We use a matrix formulated algorithm to approximate solutions of a class of partial integro-differential equations with the given initial and boundary conditions. Some numerical results are presented to simplify application of operational matrix formulation and reduce the computational cost. Convergence analysis, error estimation and numerical stability of the method are also investigated. Finally, some test examples are given to demonstrate accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Legendre Wavelets, operational matrices, partial integro-differential equation, viscoelasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Neveen AlQasas, Daniel Johnson

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Membranes for water treatment are an established technology that attracts great attention due to its simplicity and cost effectiveness. However, membranes in operation suffer from the adverse effect of membrane fouling. Bio-fouling is a phenomenon that occurs at the water-membrane interface, and is a dynamic process that is initiated by the adsorption of dissolved organic material, including biomacromolecules, on the membrane surface. After initiation, attachment of microorganisms occurs, followed by biofilm growth. The biofilm blocks the pores of the membrane and consequently results in reducing the water flux. Moreover, the presence of a fouling layer can have a substantial impact on the membrane separation properties. Understanding the mechanism of the initiation phase of biofouling is a key point in eliminating the biofouling on membrane surfaces. The adhesion and attachment of different fouling materials is affected by the surface properties of the membrane materials. Therefore, surface properties of different polymeric materials had been studied in terms of their surface energies and Hansen solubility parameters (HSP). The difference between the combined HSP parameters (HSP distance) allows prediction of the affinity of two materials to each other. The possibilities of measuring the HSP of different polymer films via surface measurements, such as contact angle has been thoroughly investigated. Knowing the HSP of a membrane material and the HSP of a specific foulant, facilitate the estimation of the HSP distance between the two, and therefore the strength of attachment to the surface. Contact angle measurements using fourteen different solvents on five different polymeric films were carried out using the sessile drop method. Solvents were ranked as good or bad solvents using different ranking method and ranking was used to calculate the HSP of each polymeric film. Results clearly indicate the absence of a direct relation between contact angle values of each film and the HSP distance between each polymer film and the solvents used. Therefore, estimating HSP via contact angle alone is not sufficient. However, it was found if the surface tensions and viscosities of the used solvents are taken in to the account in the analysis of the contact angle values, a prediction of the HSP from contact angle measurements is possible. This was carried out via training of a neural network model. The trained neural network model has three inputs, contact angle value, surface tension and viscosity of solvent used. The model is able to predict the HSP distance between the used solvent and the tested polymer (material). The HSP distance prediction is further used to estimate the total and individual HSP parameters of each tested material. The results showed an accuracy of about 90% for all the five studied films

Keywords: surface characterization, hansen solubility parameter estimation, contact angle measurements, artificial neural network model, surface measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Rui Teixeira, Alan O’Connor, Maria Nogal

Abstract:

The statistical theory of extreme events is progressively a topic of growing interest in all the fields of science and engineering. The changes currently experienced by the world, economic and environmental, emphasized the importance of dealing with extreme occurrences with improved accuracy. When it comes to the design of offshore structures, particularly offshore wind turbines, the importance of efficiently characterizing extreme events is of major relevance. Extreme events are commonly characterized by extreme values theory. As an alternative, the accurate modeling of the tails of statistical distributions and the characterization of the low occurrence events can be achieved with the application of the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methodology. The POT methodology allows for a more refined fit of the statistical distribution by truncating the data with a minimum value of a predefined threshold u. For mathematically approximating the tail of the empirical statistical distribution the Generalised Pareto is widely used. Although, in the case of the exceedances of significant wave data (H_s) the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution, which is a specific case of the Generalised Pareto distribution, are frequently used as an alternative. The Generalized Pareto, despite the existence of practical cases where it is applied, is not completely recognized as the adequate solution to model exceedances over a certain threshold u. References that set the Generalised Pareto distribution as a secondary solution in the case of significant wave data can be identified in the literature. In this framework, the current study intends to tackle the discussion of the application of statistical models to characterize exceedances of wave data. Comparison of the application of the Generalised Pareto, the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution are presented for different values of the threshold u. Real wave data obtained in four buoys along the Irish coast was used in the comparative analysis. Results show that the application of the statistical distributions to characterize significant wave data needs to be addressed carefully and in each particular case one of the statistical models mentioned fits better the data than the others. Depending on the value of the threshold u different results are obtained. Other variables of the fit, as the number of points and the estimation of the model parameters, are analyzed and the respective conclusions were drawn. Some guidelines on the application of the POT method are presented. Modeling the tail of the distributions shows to be, for the present case, a highly non-linear task and, due to its growing importance, should be addressed carefully for an efficient estimation of very low occurrence events.

Keywords: extreme events, offshore structures, peak-over-threshold, significant wave data

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Sadam Alwadi

Abstract:

Outlier values become a problem that frequently occurs in the data observation or recording process. Thus, the need for data imputation has become an essential matter. In this work, it will make use of the methods described in the prior work to detect the outlier values based on a collection of stock market data. In order to implement the detection and find some solutions that maybe helpful for investors, real closed price data were obtained from the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). Tukey and Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) methods will be used to impute the detect the outlier values.

Keywords: outlier values, imputation, stock market data, detecting, estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Garry A. Einicke, Langford B. White

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This paper describes an optimum filter and smoother for recovering a Markov process message from noisy measurements. The developments follow from an equivalence between a state space model and a hidden Markov chain. The ensuing filter and smoother employ transition probability matrices and approximate probability distribution vectors. The properties of the optimum solutions are retained, namely, the estimates are unbiased and minimize the variance of the output estimation error, provided that the assumed parameter set are correct. Methods for estimating unknown parameters from noisy measurements are discussed. Signal recovery examples are described in which performance benefits are demonstrated at an increased calculation cost.

Keywords: optimal filtering, smoothing, Markov chains

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Bo Liu, Chi-Man Pun

Abstract:

A novel technique for digital forgery detection by signal noise inconsistency is proposed in this paper. The forged area spliced from the other picture contains some features which may be inconsistent with the rest part of the image. Noise pattern and the level is a possible factor to reveal such inconsistency. To detect such noise discrepancies, the test picture is initially segmented into small pieces. The noise pattern and level of each segment are then estimated by using various filters. The noise features constructed in this step are utilized in energy-based graph cut to expose forged area in the final step. Experimental results show that our method provides a good illustration of regions with noise inconsistency in various scenarios.

Keywords: forgery detection, splicing forgery, noise estimation, noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Kurniawan Adha, Wan Ismail Wan Yusoff, Luluan Almanna Lubis

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Preventing hazardous events during oil and gas operation is an important contribution of accurate pore pressure data. The availability of pore pressure data also contribute in reducing the operation cost. Suggested methods in pore pressure estimation were mostly complex by the many assumptions and hypothesis used. Basic properties which may have significant impact on estimation model are somehow being neglected. To date, most of pore pressure determinations are estimated by data model analysis and rarely include laboratory analysis, stratigraphy study or core check measurement. Basically, this study developed a model that might be applied to investigate the changes of pore pressure and effective stress due to hydrocarbon production. In general, this paper focused velocity model effect of pore pressure and effective stress changes due to hydrocarbon production with illustrated by changes in saturation. The core samples from Miri field from Sarawak Malaysia ware used in this study, where the formation consists of sandstone reservoir. The study area is divided into sixteen (16) layers and encompassed six facies (A-F) from the outcrop that is used for stratigraphy sequence model. The experimental work was firstly involving data collection through field study and developing stratigraphy sequence model based on outcrop study. Porosity and permeability measurements were then performed after samples were cut into 1.5 inch diameter core samples. Next, velocity was analyzed using SONIC OYO and AutoLab 500. Three (3) scenarios of saturation were also conducted to exhibit the production history of the samples used. Results from this study show the alterations of velocity for different saturation with different actions of effective stress and pore pressure. It was observed that sample with water saturation has the highest velocity while dry sample has the lowest value. In comparison with oil to samples with oil saturation, water saturated sample still leads with the highest value since water has higher fluid density than oil. Furthermore, water saturated sample exhibits velocity derived parameters, such as poisson’s ratio and P-wave velocity over S-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) The result shows that pore pressure value ware reduced due to the decreasing of fluid content. The decreasing of pore pressure result may soften the elastic mineral frame and have tendency to possess high velocity. The alteration of pore pressure by the changes in fluid content or saturation resulted in alteration of velocity value that has proportionate trend with the effective stress.

Keywords: pore pressure, effective stress, production, miri formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 288