Search results for: multi-source data fusion

Authors: Qingsong Xiong, Cheng Yuan, Qingzhao Kong, Haibei Xiong

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Deep-learning-driven approaches based on vibration responses have attracted larger attention in rapid structural condition assessment while obtaining sufficient measured training data with corresponding labels is relevantly costly and even inaccessible in practical engineering. This study proposes an integrated label propagation network for structural condition assessment, which is able to diffuse the labels from continuously-generating measurements by intact structure to those of missing labels of damage scenarios. The integrated network is embedded with damage-sensitive features extraction by deep autoencoder and pseudo-labels propagation by optimized fuzzy clustering, the architecture and mechanism which are elaborated. With a sophisticated network design and specified strategies for improving performance, the present network achieves to extends the superiority of self-supervised representation learning, unsupervised fuzzy clustering and supervised classification algorithms into an integration aiming at assessing damage conditions. Both numerical simulations and full-scale laboratory shaking table tests of a two-story building structure were conducted to validate its capability of detecting post-earthquake damage. The identifying accuracy of a present network was 0.95 in numerical validations and an average 0.86 in laboratory case studies, respectively. It should be noted that the whole training procedure of all involved models in the network stringently doesn’t rely upon any labeled data of damage scenarios but only several samples of intact structure, which indicates a significant superiority in model adaptability and feasible applicability in practice.

Keywords: autoencoder, condition assessment, fuzzy clustering, label propagation

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Authors: H. Hanine, H. H'ssaini, M. Ibno Alaoui, A. Nablousi, H. Zahir, S. Ennahli, H. Latrache, H. Zine Abidine

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Biochemical and pomological variability among 14 cultivars of Prunus dulcis planted in a germoplasm collection site in Morocco were evaluated. Almond samples from six local and eight foreign cultivars (France, Italy, Spain, and USA) were characterized. Biochemical and pomological data revealed significant genetic variability among the 14 cultivars; local cultivars exhibited higher total polyphenol content. Oil content ranged from 35 to 57% among cultivars; both Texas and Toundout genotypes recorded the highest oil content. Total protein concentration from select cultivars ranged from 50 mg/g in Ferraduel to 105 mg/g in Rizlane1 cultivars. Antioxidant activity of almond samples was examined by a DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl) radical-scavenging assay; the antioxidant activity varied significantly within the cultivars, with IC50 (the half-maximal inhibitory concentration) values ranging from 2.25 to 20 mg/ml. Autochthonous cultivars originated from the Oujda region exhibited higher tegument total polyphenol and amino acid content compared to others. The genotype Rizlane2 recorded the highest flavonoid content. Pomological traits revealed a large variability within the almond germplasms. The hierarchical clustering analysis of all the data regarding pomological traits distinguished two groups with some particular genotypes as distinct cultivars, and groups of cultivars as polyclone varieties. These results strongly exhibit a potential use of Moroccan-originated almonds as potential clones for future selection due to their nutritional values and pomological traits compared to well-established cultivars.

Keywords: antioxidant activity, DDPH, Moroccan almonds, Prunus dulcis

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Authors: Natacha Fery, Guilherme L. Dalledonne, Xiangyang Zheng, Cheng Tang, Roberto Mayerle

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A Decision Support System (DSS) for supporting decision makers in the management of the Shandong Peninsula has been developed. Emphasis has been given to coastal protection, coastal cage aquaculture and harbors. The investigations were done in the framework of a joint research project funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In this paper, a description of the DSS, the development of its components, and results of its application are presented. The system integrates in-situ measurements, process-based models, and a database management system. Numerical models for the simulation of flow, waves, sediment transport and morphodynamics covering the entire Bohai Sea are set up based on the Delft3D modelling suite (Deltares). Calibration and validation of the models were realized based on the measurements of moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) and High Frequency (HF) radars. In order to enable cost-effective and scalable applications, a database management system was developed. It enhances information processing, data evaluation, and supports the generation of data products. Results of the application of the DSS to the management of coastal protection, coastal cage aquaculture and harbors are presented here. Model simulations covering the most severe storms observed during the last decades were carried out leading to an improved understanding of hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. Results helped in the identification of coastal stretches subjected to higher levels of energy and improved support for coastal protection measures.

Keywords: coastal protection, decision support system, in-situ measurements, numerical modelling

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Authors: Maryam Karimi, Rouzbeh Nazari

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Introduction: Understanding thermal distribution in the micro-urban climate has now been necessary for urban planners or designers due to the impact of complex micro-scale features of Urban Heat Island (UHI) on the built environment and public health. Hence, understanding the interrelation between urban components and thermal pattern can assist planners in the proper addition of vegetation to build-environment, which can minimize the UHI impact. To characterize the need for urban green infrastructure (UGI) through better urban planning, this study proposes the use of RayMan model to measure the impact of air quality and increased temperature based on urban morphology in the selected metropolitan cities. This project will measure the impact of build environment for urban and regional planning using human biometeorological evaluations (Tmrt). Methods: We utilized the RayMan model to estimate the Tmrt in an urban environment incorporating location and height of buildings and trees as a supplemental tool in urban planning and street design. The estimated Tmrt value will be compared with existing surface and air temperature data to find the actual temperature felt by pedestrians. Results: Our current results suggest a strong relationship between sky-view factor (SVF) and increased surface temperature in megacities based on current urban morphology. Conclusion: This study will help with Quantifying the impacts of the built environment and surface properties on surrounding temperature, identifying priority urban neighborhoods by analyzing Tmrt and air quality data at the pedestrian level, and characterizing the need for urban green infrastructure cooling potential.

Keywords: built environment, urban planning, urban cooling, extreme heat

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Authors: Farhana Arefeen Mila, Luis Emilio Morales, Nam Hoang, Sujana Adapa, Garry Griffith

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This study investigates the existence of price transmission asymmetries and imperfections among the coastal and freshwater fish species in Bangladesh. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we explore how price changes in one fish species impact the prices of others in the retail market. Monthly data from the Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM) covering the period from 2012 to 2023 was analyzed. Price series were detrended using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and unit root tests confirmed stationarity after detrending. The findings indicate that there are significant interdependencies and asymmetries in price transmission, particularly the strong influence of Hilsha on the broader fish market. Hilsha’s price shocks generate immediate responses across other species, reflecting its cultural and economic importance. Silver Pomfret demonstrates some independence but is still affected by broader market fluctuations, particularly those involving Hilsha. Meanwhile, Rohu and Catla exhibit high interdependence, where price changes in one species closely impact the other, underscoring their substitutable nature in consumer preferences. These findings emphasize the need for joint interventions and market monitoring to stabilize prices effectively. Stakeholders are encouraged to monitor Hilsha’s market, consider coordinated interventions for Rohu and Catla, and establish data-sharing partnerships to enhance market stability. Additionally, promoting consumer awareness of price trends and sustainable practices can further support market resilience and long-term sustainability in the fisheries sector.

Keywords: price transmission, cross commodity, fish, Bangladesh, CCF, SVAR, IRF

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Authors: Anup Anand Deshmukh, Catherine Soladie, Renaud Seguier

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Emotion plays a key role in many applications like healthcare, to gather patients’ emotional behavior. Unlike typical ASR (Automated Speech Recognition) problems which focus on 'what was said', it is equally important to understand 'how it was said.' There are certain emotions which are given more importance due to their effectiveness in understanding human feelings. In this paper, we propose an approach that models human stress from audio signals. The research challenge in speech emotion detection is finding the appropriate set of acoustic features corresponding to an emotion. Another difficulty lies in defining the very meaning of emotion and being able to categorize it in a precise manner. Supervised Machine Learning models, including state of the art Deep Learning classification methods, rely on the availability of clean and labelled data. One of the problems in affective computation is the limited amount of annotated data. The existing labelled emotions datasets are highly subjective to the perception of the annotator. We address the first issue of feature selection by exploiting the use of traditional MFCC (Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients) features in Convolutional Neural Network. Our proposed Emo-CNN (Emotion-CNN) architecture treats speech representations in a manner similar to how CNN’s treat images in a vision problem. Our experiments show that Emo-CNN consistently and significantly outperforms the popular existing methods over multiple datasets. It achieves 90.2% categorical accuracy on the Emo-DB dataset. We claim that Emo-CNN is robust to speaker variations and environmental distortions. The proposed approach achieves 85.5% speaker-dependant categorical accuracy for SAVEE (Surrey Audio-Visual Expressed Emotion) dataset, beating the existing CNN based approach by 10.2%. To tackle the second problem of subjectivity in stress labels, we use Lovheim’s cube, which is a 3-dimensional projection of emotions. Monoamine neurotransmitters are a type of chemical messengers in the brain that transmits signals on perceiving emotions. The cube aims at explaining the relationship between these neurotransmitters and the positions of emotions in 3D space. The learnt emotion representations from the Emo-CNN are mapped to the cube using three component PCA (Principal Component Analysis) which is then used to model human stress. This proposed approach not only circumvents the need for labelled stress data but also complies with the psychological theory of emotions given by Lovheim’s cube. We believe that this work is the first step towards creating a connection between Artificial Intelligence and the chemistry of human emotions.

Keywords: deep learning, brain chemistry, emotion perception, Lovheim's cube

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Authors: Karl D. Humm

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The United Nations’ Community-based REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) (CBR+) is a programme that directly finances grassroots climate change mitigation strategies that uplift Indigenous Peoples (IPs) and other marginalised groups. A pilot for it in six countries was developed in response to criticism of the REDD+ programme for excluding IPs from dialogues about climate change mitigation strategies affecting their lands and livelihoods. Despite the pilot’s conclusion in 2017, no complete report has yet been produced on the results of CBR+. To fill this gap, this study investigated the experiences with involving IPs in the CBR+ programmes and local projects across all six pilot countries. A literature review of official UN reports and academic articles identified challenges and successes with IP participation in REDD+ which became the basis for a framework guiding data collection. A mixed methods approach was used to collect and analyse qualitative and quantitative data from CBR+ documents and written interviews with CBR+ National Coordinators in each country for a cross-country comparative analysis. The study found that the most frequent challenges were lack of organisational capacity, illegal forest activities, and historically-based contentious relationships in IP and forest-dependent communities. Successful programmes included IPs and incorporated respect and recognition of IPs as major stakeholders in managing sustainable forests. Findings are summarized and shared with a set of recommendations for improvement of future projects.

Keywords: climate change, forests, indigenous peoples, REDD+

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Authors: Issam A. Al-Khatib

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In order to achieve a significant reduction of waste amount flowing into landfills, it is important to first understand the composition of the solid municipal waste generated. Hence a detailed analysis of municipal solid waste composition has been conducted in Nablus city. The aim is to provide data on the potential recyclable fractions in the actual waste stream, with a focus on the plastic fraction. Hence, waste-sorting campaigns were conducted on mixed waste containers from five districts in Nablus city. The districts vary in terms of infrastructure and average income. The target is to obtain representative data about the potential quantity and quality of household plastic waste. The study has measured the composition of municipal solid waste collected/ transported by Nablus municipality. The analysis was done by categorizing the samples into eight primary fractions (organic and food waste, paper and cardboard, glass, metals, textiles, plastic, a fine fraction (<10 mm), and others). The study results reveal that the MSW stream in Nablus city has a significant bio- and organic waste fraction (about 68% of the total MSW). The second largest fraction is paper and cardboard (13.6%), followed by plastics (10.1%), textiles (3.2%), glass (1.9%), metals (1.8%), a fine fraction (0.5%), and other waste (0.3%). After this complete and detailed characterization of MSW collected in Nablus and taking into account the content of biodegradable organic matter, the composting could be a solution for the city of Nablus where the surrounding areas of Nablus city have agricultural activities and could be a natural outlet to the compost product. Different waste management options could be practiced in the future in addition to composting, such as energy recovery and recycling, which result in a greater possibility of reducing substantial amounts that are disposed of at landfills.

Keywords: developing countries, composition, management, recyclable, waste.

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Authors: Patrick Andrew McCoy

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The intense fascination with ancient Egypt has persisted for thousands of years and across cultures globally, known popularly as Egyptomania,’ ‘Tutmania,’ ‘Mummymania,’ and ‘Orientalism. A review of the literature indicates psychological themes for its behavior are curiosity, escapism, existentialism, religiosity and spirituality, and cultural, racial, and ethnic identity. A mixed-methods study is initiated with established tools to explore these themes and discover additional motivators. Objectives: The purpose of the study is to explore the themes underlying the intense fascination of ancient Egypt. The abstract themes of the fascination of ancient Egypt are cross-cultural phenomena that motivate people in their interactions with other cultures. These interactions have both been beneficial and combative. Methodology: A mixed methods research study is designed where quantitative (QUAN) survey of participants’ strong fascination with ancient Egypt, within psychological themes derived from a review of the literature. The qualitative (QUAL) survey consists of open-ended questions to explore participants’ exposure to ancient Egypt that may have influenced their fascination and their behaviors resulting from the phenomenon. The themes are explored in QUAN data and QUAL data to discover what themes are established and inferred the psychological motivations of the phenomenon. Main Contributions: This study will provide more information on several scientific disciplines, including psychology, anthropology, Egyptology, and tourism. This study seeks to benefit the tourism industry for not only in Egypt but hopefully with generalizability of cultural tourist industries in other countries.

Keywords: cross-cultural psychology, international psychology, mixed-methods, identity, ancient Egypt, phenomenology, escapism, curiosity, existentialism, religiosity, spirituality

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Authors: Dhanuja S. Patil, Sanjay B. Waykar

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Event detection is a standout amongst the most key parts for distinctive sorts of area applications of video data framework. Recently, it has picked up an extensive interest of experts and in scholastics from different zones. While detecting video event has been the subject of broad study efforts recently, impressively less existing methodology has considered multi-model data and issues related efficiency. Start of soccer matches different doubtful circumstances rise that can't be effectively judged by the referee committee. A framework that checks objectively image arrangements would prevent not right interpretations because of some errors, or high velocity of the events. Bayesian networks give a structure for dealing with this vulnerability using an essential graphical structure likewise the probability analytics. We propose an efficient structure for analysing and summarization of soccer videos utilizing object-based features. The proposed work utilizes the t-cherry junction tree, an exceptionally recent advancement in probabilistic graphical models, to create a compact representation and great approximation intractable model for client’s relationships in an interpersonal organization. There are various advantages in this approach firstly; the t-cherry gives best approximation by means of junction trees class. Secondly, to construct a t-cherry junction tree can be to a great extent parallelized; and at last inference can be performed utilizing distributed computation. Examination results demonstrates the effectiveness, adequacy, and the strength of the proposed work which is shown over a far reaching information set, comprising more soccer feature, caught at better places.

Keywords: summarization, detection, Bayesian network, t-cherry tree

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Authors: Mohamed Abdalla Elamein Boshara, Peter Charles Woods, Nour Eldin Mohamed Elshaiekh

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Knowledge Management has become very important for Disaster Management response and planning. This paper proposes the implementation of a Knowledge Management System with a sustainable data collection mechanism for reliable and timely information management to support decision makers in making the right decisions in the timely manner.

Keywords: knowledge management, disaster management, incident tracking, web application

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The educational system faces a significant concern with regards to Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, which are learning disabilities impacting reading and writing abilities. This is particularly challenging for children who speak the Sinhala language due to its complexity and uniqueness. Commonly used methods to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia rely on subjective assessments, leading to limited coverage and time-consuming processes. Consequently, delays in diagnoses and missed opportunities for early intervention can occur. To address this issue, the project developed a hybrid model that incorporates various deep learning techniques to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16, and YOLOv8 models were integrated to identify handwriting issues. The outputs of these models were then combined with other input data and fed into an MLP model. Hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, enabling the identification of optimal values for the model. This approach proved to be highly effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention. The Resnet50 model exhibited a training accuracy of 0.9804 and a validation accuracy of 0.9653. The VGG16 model achieved a training accuracy of 0.9991 and a validation accuracy of 0.9891. The MLP model demonstrated impressive results with a training accuracy of 0.99918, a testing accuracy of 0.99223, and a loss of 0.01371. These outcomes showcase the high accuracy achieved by the proposed hybrid model in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, dyslexia, dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: Tebogo Sethibe, Jabulile Mabuza

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been commonly referred to as a ‘black swan event’; it has changed the world, from how people live, learn, work and socialise. It is believed that the pandemic has fast-tracked the adoption of technology in many organisations to ensure business continuity and business sustainability; broadly said, the pandemic has fast-tracked digital transformation (DT) in different organisations. This paper aims to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DT in organisations in South Africa by focusing on the changes in IT capabilities in the DT framework. The research design is qualitative. The data collection was through semi-structured interviews with information communication technology (ICT) leaders representing different organisations in South Africa. The data were analysed using the thematic analysis process. The results from the study show that, in terms of ICT in the organisation, the pandemic had a direct and positive impact on ICT strategy and ICT operations. In terms of IT capability transformation, the pandemic resulted in the optimisation and expansion of existing IT capabilities in the organisation and the building of new IT capabilities to meet emerging business needs. In terms of the focus of activities during the pandemic, there seems to be a split in organisations between the primary focus being on ‘digital IT’ or ‘traditional IT’. Overall, the findings of the study show that the pandemic had a positive and significant impact on DT in organisations. However, a definitive conclusion on this would require expanding the scope of the research to all the components of a comprehensive DT framework. This study is significant because it is one of the first studies to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on organisations, on ICT in the organisation, on IT capability transformation and, to a greater extent, DT. The findings from the study show that in response to the pandemic, there is a need for: (i) agility in organisations; (ii) organisations to execute on their existing strategy; (iii) the future-proofing of IT capabilities; (iv) the adoption of a hybrid working model; and for (v) organisations to take risks and embrace new ideas.

Keywords: digital transformation, COVID-19, bimodal-IT, digital transformation framework

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: Shreya Saxena, Felix Miller-Molloy, Phillipa Bowen, Greg Fellows, Elizabeth Bowen

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Background: Complex fluid balance abnormalities are well-established post-neurosurgery and traumatic brain injury (TBI). The triple-phase response requires fluid management strategies reactive to urine output and sodium homeostasis as patients shift between Diabetes Insipidus (DI) and Syndrome of Inappropriate ADH (SIADH). It was observed, at a tertiary paediatric center, a relatively high prevalence of the above complications within a cohort of paediatric post-neurosurgical and TBI patients. An audit of the clinical practice against set institutional guidelines was undertaken and analyzed to understand why this was occurring. Based on those results, new guidelines were developed with structured educational packages for the specialist teams involved. This was then reaudited, and the findings were compared. Methods: Two independent audits were conducted across two time periods, pre and post guideline change. Primary data was collected retrospectively, including both qualitative and quantitative data sets from the CQUIN neurosurgical database and electronic medical records. All paediatric patients post posterior fossa (PFT) or supratentorial surgery or with a TBI were included. A literature review of evidence-based practice, initial audit data, and stakeholder feedback was used to develop new clinical guidelines and nursing standard operation procedures. Compliance against these newly developed guidelines was re-assessed and a thematic, trend-based analysis of the two sets of results was conducted. Results: Audit-1 January2017-June2018, n=80; Audit-2 January2020-June2021, n=30 (reduced operative capacity due to COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, improvements in the monitoring of both fluid balance and electrolyte trends were demonstrated; 51% vs. 77% and 78% vs. 94%, respectively. The number of clear fluid management plans documented postoperatively also increased (odds ratio of 4), leading to earlier recognition and management of evolving fluid-balance abnormalities. The local paediatric endocrine team was involved in the care of all complex cases and notified sooner for those considered to be developing DI or SIADH (14% to 35%). However, significant Na fluctuations (>12mmol in 24 hours) remained similar – 5 vs six patients – found to be due to complex pituitary hypothalamic pathology – and the recommended adaptive fluid management strategy was still not always used. Qualitative data regarding useability and understanding of fluid-balance abnormalities and the revised guidelines were obtained from health professionals via surveys and discussion in the specialist teams providing care. The feedback highlighted the new guidelines provided a more consistent approach to the post-operative care of these patients and was a better platform for communication amongst the different specialist teams involved. The potential limitation to our study would be the small sample size on which to conduct formal analyses; however, this reflects the population that we were investigating, which we cannot control. Conclusion: The revised clinical guidelines, based on audited data, evidence-based literature review and stakeholder consultations, have demonstrated an improvement in understanding of the neuro-endocrine complications that are possible, as well as increased compliance to post-operative monitoring of fluid balance and electrolytes in this cohort of patients. Emphasis has been placed on preventative rather than treatment of DI and SIADH. Consequently, this has positively impacted patient safety for the center and highlighted the importance of educational awareness and multi-disciplinary team working.

Keywords: post-operative, fluid-balance management, neuro-endocrine complications, paediatric

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Authors: W. Mohammed Saeed, A. J. Mcbain, S. M. Cruickshank, C. A. O’Neill

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In the gut, probiotics have been shown to protect epithelial cells from pathogenic bacteria through a number of mechanisms: 1-Increasing epithelial barrier function, 2-Modulation of the immune response especially innate immune response, 3-Inhibition of pathogen adherence and down regulation of virulence factors. Since probiotics have positive impacts on the gut, their potential effects on other body tissues, such as skin have begun to be investigated. The purpose of this project is to characterize the potential of probiotic bacteria lysate as therapeutic agent for preventing or reducing the S. aureus infection. Normal human primary keratinocytes (KCs) were exposed to S. aureus (106/ml) in the presence or absence of L. rhamnosus GG lysate (extracted from 108cfu/ml). The viability of the KCs was measured after 24 hours using a trypan blue exclusion assay. When KCs were treated with S aureus alone, only 25% of the KCs remained viable at 24 hours post infection. However, in the presence of L. rhamnosus GG lysate the viability of pathogen infected KCs increased to 58% (p=0.008, n=3). Furthermore, when KCs co-exposed, pre- exposed or post-exposed to L. rhamnosus GG lysate, the viability of the KCs increased to ≈60%, the L. rhamnosus GG lysate was afforded equal protection in different conditions. These data suggests that two possible separate mechanisms are involved in the protective effects of L. rhamnosus GG such as reducing S. aureus growth, or inhibiting of pathogenic adhesion. Interestingly, a lysate of L rhamnosus GG provided significant reduction in S. aureus growth and adhesion of S. aureus that being viable following 24 hours incubation with S aureus. Therefore, a series of Liquid Chromatography (RP-LC) methods were adopted to partially purify the lysate in combination with functional assays to elucidate in which fractions the efficacious molecules were contained. In addition, the Mass Spectrometry-based protein sequencing was used to identify putative proteins in the fractions. The data presented from purification process demonstrated that L. rhamnosus GG lysate has the potential to protect keratinocytes from the toxic effects of the skin pathogen, S. aureus. Three potential mechanisms were identified: inhibition of pathogen growth; competitive exclusion; and displacement of the pathogen from keratinocyte binding sites. In this study, ‘moonlight’ proteins were identified in the current study’s MS/MS data for L. rhamnosus GG lysate, which could elucidate the ability of lysate in the competitive exclusion and displacement of S. aureus from keratinocyte binding sites. Taken together, it can be speculated that L. rhamnosus GG lysate utilizes different mechanisms to protect keratinocytes from S. aureus toxicity. The present study indicates that the proteinaceous substances are involved in anti-adhesion activity. This is achieved by displacing the pathogen and preventing the severity of pathogen infection and the moonlight proteins might be involved in inhibiting the adhesion of pathogens.

Keywords: lysate, fractions, adhesion, L. rhamnosus GG, S. aureus toxicity

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Authors: A. Uludağ, F. G. Tufekci, N. Ceviz

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Aim: The research has been carried out in order to evaluate caregiver burden, life satisfaction and received social support level of the parents whose children have congenital heart disease; to examine the relationship between the social supports received by them and caregiver burden and life satisfaction. Material and Method: The research which is descriptive and which is searching a relationship has been carried out between the dates June 7, 2012- June 30, 2014, in Erzurum Ataturk University Research and Application Hospital, Department of Pediatrics and Children Cardiology Polyclinic. In the research, it was collaborated with the parents (N = 157) who accepted to participate in, of children who were between the ages of 3 months- 12 years. While gathering the data, a questionnaire, Zarit Caregiver Burden, Life Satisfaction and Social Support Scales have been used. The statistics of the data acquired has been produced by using percentage distribution, mean, and variance and correlation analysis. Ethical principles are followed in the research. Results: In the research, caregiver burden, life satisfaction and social support level received from family (p < 0.05), have been determined higher in the parents whose children have serious congenital heart disease than that of parents whose children have slight disease and social support received from friends has been found lower. It has been determined that there is a strong relation (p < 0.001) through negative direction between both social support levels and caregiver burden of parents; and that there is a strong relation (p < 0.001) through positive direction between both support levels and life satisfaction. Conclusion: That Social Support is in a strong relation with Caregiver Burden through a negative direction and a strong relation with Life Satisfaction through positive direction in parents of all the children who have congenital heart disease requires social support systems to be reinforced. Parents can be led or guided so as to prompt social support systems more.

Keywords: congenital heart disease, child, parents, caregiver burden, life satisfaction, social support

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Authors: Jefriza, Habibah Lateh, Saumi Syahreza

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The 2016 Mw 6.5 Pidie Jaya earthquake is one of the biggest disasters that has occurred in Aceh within the last five years. This earthquake has caused severe damage to many infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, mosques, and houses in the district of Pidie Jaya and surrounding areas. Earthquakes commonly occur in Aceh Province due to the Aceh-Sumatra is located in the convergent boundaries of the Sunda Plate subducted beneath the Indo-Australian Plate. This convergence is responsible for the intensification of seismicity in this region. The plates are tilted at a speed of 63 mm per year and the right lateral component is accommodated by strike- slip faulting within Sumatra, mainly along the great Sumatran fault. This paper presents preliminary findings of InSAR study aimed at investigating the co-seismic surface deformation pattern in Pidie Jaya, Aceh-Indonesia. Coseismic surface deformation is rapid displacement that occurs at the time of an earthquake. Coseismic displacement mapping is required to study the behavior of seismic faults. InSAR is a powerful tool for measuring Earth surface deformation to a precision of a few centimetres. In this study, two radar images of the same area but at two different times are required to detect changes in the Earth’s surface. The ascending and descending Sentinel-1A (S1A) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and Sentinels application platform (SNAP) toolbox were used to generate SAR interferogram image. In order to visualize the InSAR interferometric, the S1A from both master (26 Nov 2016) and slave data-sets (26 Dec 2016) were utilized as the main data source for mapping the coseismic surface deformation. The results show that the fringes of phase difference have appeared in the border region as a result of the movement that was detected with interferometric technique. On the other hand, the dominant fringes pattern also appears near the coastal area, this is consistent with the field investigations two days after the earthquake. However, the study has also limitations of resolution and atmospheric artefacts in SAR interferograms. The atmospheric artefacts are caused by changes in the atmospheric refractive index of the medium, as a result, has limitation to produce coherence image. Low coherence will be affected the result in creating fringes (movement can be detected by fringes). The spatial resolution of the Sentinel satellite has not been sufficient for studying land surface deformation in this area. Further studies will also be investigated using both ALOS and TerraSAR-X. ALOS and TerraSAR-X improved the spatial resolution of SAR satellite.

Keywords: earthquake, InSAR, interferometric, Sentinel-1A

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Authors: Yeşim Özer Özkan, Fatma Büşra Fincan

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Biased sample is a regression of an observation, design process and all of the specifications lead to tendency of a side or the situation of leaving from the objectivity. It is expected that, test items are answered by the students who come from different social groups and the same ability not to be different from each other. The importance of the expectation increases especially during student selection and placement examinations. For example, all of the test items should not be beneficial for just a male or female group. The aim of the research is an investigation of item bias whether or not the exam included in 2014 free boarding and scholarship examination in terms of gender variable. Data which belong to 5th, 6th, and 7th grade the secondary education students were obtained by the General Directorate of Measurement, Evaluation and Examination Services in Turkey. 20% students were selected randomly within 192090 students. Based on 38418 students’ exam paper were examined for determination item bias. Winsteps 3.8.1 package program was used to determine bias in analysis of data, according to Rasch Model in respect to gender variable. Mathematics items tests were examined in terms of gender bias. Firstly, confirmatory factor analysis was applied twenty-five math questions. After that, NFI, TLI, CFI, IFI, RFI, GFI, RMSEA, and SRMR were examined in order to be validity and values of goodness of fit. Modification index values of confirmatory factor analysis were examined and then some of the items were omitted because these items gave an error in terms of model conformity and conceptual. The analysis shows that in 2014 free boarding and scholarship examination exam does not include bias. This is an indication of the gender of the examination to be made in favor of or against different groups of students.

Keywords: gender, item bias, placement test, Rasch model

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Authors: Badryah Alshehri, Kevin Gormley, Gillian Prue, Karen McCutcheon

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In a disaster event, sharing patient information between the pre-hospitals Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and Emergency Department (ED) hospitals is a complex process during which important information may be altered or lost due to poor communication. The aim of this study was to critically discuss the current evidence base in relation to communication between pre-EMS hospital and ED hospital professionals by the use of Information and Communication Systems (ICT). This study followed the systematic approach; six electronic databases were searched: CINAHL, Medline, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore Digital Library were comprehensively searched in January 2018 and a second search was completed in April 2020 to capture more recent publications. The study selection process was undertaken independently by the study authors. Both qualitative and quantitative studies were chosen that focused on factors which are positively or negatively associated with coordinated communication between pre-hospital EMS and ED teams in a disaster event. These studies were assessed for quality and the data were analysed according to the key screening themes which emerged from the literature search. Twenty-two studies were included. Eleven studies employed quantitative methods, seven studies used qualitative methods, and four studies used mixed methods. Four themes emerged on communication between EMTs (pre-hospital EMS and ED staff) in a disaster event using the ICT. (1) Disaster preparedness plans and coordination. This theme reported that disaster plans are in place in hospitals, and in some cases, there are interagency agreements with pre-hospital and relevant stakeholders. However, the findings showed that the disaster plans highlighted in these studies lacked information regarding coordinated communications within and between the pre-hospital and hospital. (2) Communication systems used in the disaster. This theme highlighted that although various communication systems are used between and within hospitals and pre-hospitals, technical issues have influenced communication between teams during disasters. (3) Integrated information management systems. This theme suggested the need for an integrated health information system which can help pre-hospital and hospital staff to record patient data and ensure the data is shared. (4) Disaster training and drills. While some studies analysed disaster drills and training, the majority of these studies were focused on hospital departments other than EMTs. These studies suggest the need for simulation disaster training and drills, including EMTs. This review demonstrates that considerable gaps remain in the understanding of the communication between the EMS and ED hospitals staff in relation to response in disasters. The review shows that although different types of ICTs are used, various issues remain which affect coordinated communication among the relevant professionals.

Keywords: communication, emergency communication services, emergency medical teams, emergency physicians, emergency nursing, paramedics, information and communication technology, communication systems

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Authors: Rolando Barradas, Salviano Soares, António Valente, José Alberto Lencastre, Paulo Oliveira

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This article reviews the Ant Colony Optimization, a nature-inspired algorithm, and its implementation in the Scratch/m-Block programming environment. The Ant Colony Optimization is a part of Swarm Intelligence-based algorithms and is a subset of biological-inspired algorithms. Starting with a problem in which one has a maze and needs to find its path to the center and return to the starting position. This is similar to an ant looking for a path to a food source and returning to its nest. Starting with the implementation of a simple wall follower simulator, the proposed solution uses a dynamic graphical interface that allows young students to observe the ants’ movement while the algorithm optimizes the routes to the maze’s center. Things like interface usability, Data structures, and the conversion of algorithmic language to Scratch syntax were some of the details addressed during this implementation. This gives young students an easier way to understand the computational concepts of sequences, loops, parallelism, data, events, and conditionals, as they are used through all the implemented algorithms. Future work includes the simulation results with real contest mazes and two different pheromone update methods and the comparison with the optimized results of the winners of each one of the editions of the contest. It will also include the creation of a Digital Twin relating the virtual simulator with a real micromouse in a full-size maze. The first test results show that the algorithm found the same optimized solutions that were found by the winners of each one of the editions of the Micromouse contest making this a good solution for maze pathfinding.

Keywords: nature inspired algorithms, scratch, micromouse, problem-solving, computational thinking

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Authors: Alejandro Rodríguez-Molinero, Carlos Pérez-López, Jorge Hernández-Vara, Àngels Bayes-Rusiñol, Juan Carlos Martínez-Castrillo, David A. Pérez-Martínez

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Background: Monitoring motor symptoms in Parkinson's patients is often a complex and time-consuming task for clinicians, as Hauser's diaries are often poorly completed by patients. Recently, new automatic devices (Parkinson's holter: STAT-ON®) have been developed capable of monitoring patients' motor fluctuations. The MoMoPa-EC clinical trial (NCT04176302) investigates which of the two methods produces better clinical results. In this sub-analysis, the concordance between both methods is analyzed. Methods: In the MoMoPa-EC clinical trial, 164 patients with moderate-severe Parkinson's disease and at least two hours a day of Off will be included. At the time of patient recruitment, all of them completed a seven-day motor fluctuation diary at home (Hauser’s diary) while wearing the Parkinson's holter. In this sub-analysis, 71 patients with complete data for the purpose of this comparison were included. The intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated between the patient diary entries and the Parkinson's holter data in terms of time On, Off, and time with dyskinesias. Results: The intra-class correlation coefficient of both methods was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.3-0.74) for daily time in Off (%), 0.48 (95% CI: 0.14-0.68) for daily time in On (%), and 0.37 (95% CI %: -0.04-0.62) for daily time with dyskinesias (%). Conclusions: Both methods have a moderate agreement with each other. We will have to wait for the results of the MoMoPa-EC project to estimate which of them has the greatest clinical benefits. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by AbbVie S.L.U, the Instituto de Salud Carlos III [DTS17/00195], and the European Fund for Regional Development, 'A way to make Europe'.

Keywords: Parkinson, sensor, motor fluctuations, dyskinesia

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Authors: Shayan Mohajer Hamidi

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Federated learning has emerged as a promising approach for distributed model training while preserving data privacy. However, the challenges of communication overhead, limited network resources, and slow convergence hinder its widespread adoption. On the other hand, knowledge distillation has shown great potential in compressing large models into smaller ones without significant loss in performance. In this paper, we propose an innovative framework that combines federated learning and knowledge distillation to address these challenges and enhance the efficiency of distributed learning. Our approach, called Federated Knowledge Distillation (FKD), enables multiple clients in a federated learning setting to collaboratively distill knowledge from a teacher model. By leveraging the collaborative nature of federated learning, FKD aims to improve model compression while maintaining privacy. The proposed framework utilizes a coded teacher model that acts as a reference for distilling knowledge to the client models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of FKD, we conduct extensive experiments on various datasets and models. We compare FKD with baseline federated learning methods and standalone knowledge distillation techniques. The results show that FKD achieves superior model compression, faster convergence, and improved performance compared to traditional federated learning approaches. Furthermore, FKD effectively preserves privacy by ensuring that sensitive data remains on the client devices and only distilled knowledge is shared during the training process. In our experiments, we explore different knowledge transfer methods within the FKD framework, including Fine-Tuning (FT), FitNet, Correlation Congruence (CC), Similarity-Preserving (SP), and Relational Knowledge Distillation (RKD). We analyze the impact of these methods on model compression and convergence speed, shedding light on the trade-offs between size reduction and performance. Moreover, we address the challenges of communication efficiency and network resource utilization in federated learning by leveraging the knowledge distillation process. FKD reduces the amount of data transmitted across the network, minimizing communication overhead and improving resource utilization. This makes FKD particularly suitable for resource-constrained environments such as edge computing and IoT devices. The proposed FKD framework opens up new avenues for collaborative and privacy-preserving distributed learning. By combining the strengths of federated learning and knowledge distillation, it offers an efficient solution for model compression and convergence speed enhancement. Future research can explore further extensions and optimizations of FKD, as well as its applications in domains such as healthcare, finance, and smart cities, where privacy and distributed learning are of paramount importance.

Keywords: federated learning, knowledge distillation, knowledge transfer, deep learning

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Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

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Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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Authors: Hannah S. Waldron

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Background: The government has proposed sugar reduction targets in an effort to tackle childhood obesity, focussing on those of low socioeconomic status (SES). Supermarkets are a key location for reducing the amount of sugar purchased, but success so far in this environment has been limited. Building on previous research, this study will assess the impact of restricting the availability of higher sugar biscuits as a strategy to encourage lower sugar biscuit purchasing, and whether the effects vary by customer SES. Method: 14 supermarket convenience stores were divided between control (n=7) and intervention (n=7) groups. In the intervention stores, biscuits with sugar above the government’s target (26.2g/100g) were removed from sale and replaced with lower sugar ( < 26.2g sugar/100g) alternatives. Sales and customer demographic information were collected using loyalty card data and point-of-sale transaction data for 8-weeks pre and post the intervention for lower sugar biscuits, total biscuits, alternative higher sugar products, and all products. Results were analysed using three-way and two-way mixed ANOVAs. Results: The intervention resulted in a significant increase in lower sugar biscuit purchasing (p < 0.001) and a significant decline in overall biscuit sales (p < 0.001) between the time periods compared to control stores. Sales of higher sugar products and all products increased significantly between the two time periods in both the intervention and control stores (p < 0.05). SES showed no significant effect on any of the reported outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Restricting the availability of higher sugar products may be a successful strategy for encouraging lower sugar purchasing across all SES groups. However, larger-scale interventions are required in additional categories to assess the long term implications for both consumers and retailers.

Keywords: biscuits, nudging, sugar, supermarket

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Authors: Rocio Herrero Romero, Lucie Cluver, James Hall, Janina Steinert

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Educational delay and non-completion are major policy concerns in South Africa. However, little research has focused on predictors for educational delay amongst adolescents in disadvantaged areas. This study has two aims: first, to use data integration approaches to compare the educational delay of 599 adolescents aged 16 to 18 from disadvantaged communities to national and provincial representative estimates in South Africa. Second, the paper also explores predictors for educational delay by comparing adolescents out of school (n=64) and at least one year behind (n=380), with adolescents in the age-appropriate grade or higher (n=155). Multinomial logistic regression models using self-report and administrative data were applied to look for significant associations of risk and protective factors. Significant risk factors for being behind (rather than in age-appropriate grade) were: male gender, past grade repetition, rural location and larger school size. Risk factors for being out of school (rather than in the age-appropriate grade) were: past grade repetition, having experienced problems concentrating at school, household poverty, and food insecurity. Significant protective factors for being in the age-appropriate grade (rather than out of school) were: living with biological parents or grandparents and access to school counselling. Attending school in wealthier communities was a significant protective factor for being in the age-appropriate grade (rather than behind). Our results suggest that both personal and contextual factors –family and school- predicted educational delay. This study provides new evidence to the significant effects of personal, family, and school characteristics on the educational outcomes of adolescents from disadvantaged communities in South Africa. This is the first longitudinal and quantitative study to systematically investigate risk and protective factors for post-compulsory educational outcomes amongst South African adolescents living in disadvantaged communities.

Keywords: disadvantaged communities, quantitative analysis, school delay, South Africa

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Authors: Silvija Šiljeg, Ivan Marić, Ante Šiljeg

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The accessibility of urban green spaces (UGS) is an integral element in the quality of life. Due to rapid urbanization, UGS studies have become a key element in urban planning. The potential benefits of space for its inhabitants are frequently analysed. A functional transport network system and the optimal spatial distribution of urban green surfaces are the prerequisites for maintaining the environmental equilibrium of the urban landscape. An accessibility analysis was conducted as part of the Urban Green Belts Project (UGB). The development of a GIS database for Zadar was the first step in generating the UGS accessibility indicator. Data were collected using the supervised classification method of multispectral LANDSAT images and manual vectorization of digital orthophoto images (DOF). An analysis of UGS accessibility according to the ANGst standard was conducted in the first phase of research. The accessibility indicator was generated on the basis of seven objective measurements, which included average UGS surface per capita and accessibility according to six functional levels of green surfaces. The generated indicator was compared with subjective measurements obtained by conducting a survey (718 respondents) within statistical units. The collected data reflected individual assessments and subjective evaluations of UGS accessibility. This study highlighted the importance of using objective and subjective measures in the process of understanding the accessibility of urban green surfaces. It may be concluded that when evaluating UGS accessibility, residents emphasize the immediate residential environment, ignoring higher UGS functional levels. It was also concluded that large areas of UGS within a city do not necessarily generate similar satisfaction with accessibility. The heterogeneity of output results may serve as guidelines for the further development of a functional UGS city network.

Keywords: urban green spaces (UGS), accessibility indicator, subjective and objective measurements, Zadar

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Authors: F. A. Adesoji, A. A. Ayandele

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There has been a concern over non-responsiveness of educational programme in Nigeria’s higher institutions to adequately meet social needs. The study, therefore, investigated the effectiveness of basic elements of the Social Studies Curriculum, the contributions of the Teacher–Related Variables (TRV) such as qualification, area of specialization, teaching experience, teaching methods, gender and teaching facilities to the implementation of the curriculum (IOC) in the Colleges of Education (COEs). The study adopted the descriptive survey design. Four COEs in Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Lagos States were purposively selected. Stratified sampling technique was used to select 455 Social Studies students and 47 Social Studies lecturers. Stakeholders’ Perception of Social Studies Curriculum (r = 0.86), Social Studies Curriculum Resources scale (r = 0.78) and Social Studies Basic Concepts Test (r = 0.78) were used for data collection. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, multiple regression, and t-test at 0.05 level of significance. COEs teachers and students rated the elements of the curriculum to be effective with mean scores x̄ =3.02 and x̄ =2.80 respectively; x̄ =5.00 and x̄ = 2.50 being the maximum and minimum mean scores. The finding showed average level of availability (x̄ =1.60), adequacy (x̄ =1.55) and utilization (x̄ =1.64) of teaching materials, x̄ =3.00 and x̄ =1.50 being maximum and minimum mean scores respectively. Academic performance of the students is on average with the mean score of x̄ =51.4775 out of maximum mean score of x̄ =100. The TRV and teaching facilities had significant composite contribution to IOC (F (6,45) = 3.92:R² = 0.26) with 39% contributions to the variance of IOC. Area of specialization (β= 29, t = 2.05) and teaching facilities (β = -25, t = 1.181) contributed significantly. The implementation of bachelor degree in Social Studies curriculum was effective in the colleges of education. There is the need to beef-up the provision of facilities to improve the implementation of the curriculum.

Keywords: bachelor degree in social studies, colleges of education in southwestern Nigeria, curriculum implementation, social studies curriculum

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

Procedia PDF Downloads 81