Search results for: lightning risk assessment
2486 Non-Cognitive Skills Associated with Learning in a Serious Gaming Environment: A Pretest-Posttest Experimental Design
Authors: Tanja Kreitenweis
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Lifelong learning is increasingly seen as essential for coping with the rapidly changing work environment. To this end, serious games can provide convenient and straightforward access to complex knowledge for all age groups. However, learning achievements depend largely on a learner’s non-cognitive skill disposition (e.g., motivation, self-belief, playfulness, and openness). With the aim of combining the fields of serious games and non-cognitive skills, this research focuses in particular on the use of a business simulation, which conveys change management insights. Business simulations are a subset of serious games and are perceived as a non-traditional learning method. The presented objectives of this work are versatile: (1) developing a scale, which measures learners’ knowledge and skills level before and after a business simulation was played, (2) investigating the influence of non-cognitive skills on learning in this business simulation environment and (3) exploring the moderating role of team preference in this type of learning setting. First, expert interviews have been conducted to develop an appropriate measure for learners’ skills and knowledge assessment. A pretest-posttest experimental design with German management students was implemented to approach the remaining objectives. By using the newly developed, reliable measure, it was found that students’ skills and knowledge state were higher after the simulation had been played, compared to before. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed two positive predictors for this outcome: motivation and self-esteem. Unexpectedly, playfulness had a negative impact. Team preference strengthened the link between grit and playfulness, respectively, and learners’ skills and knowledge state after completing the business simulation. Overall, the data underlined the potential of business simulations to improve learners’ skills and knowledge state. In addition, motivational factors were found as predictors for benefitting most from the applied business simulation. Recommendations are provided for how pedagogues can use these findings.Keywords: business simulations, change management, (experiential) learning, non-cognitive skills, serious games
Procedia PDF Downloads 1022485 Seismic Protection of Automated Stocker System by Customized Viscous Fluid Dampers
Authors: Y. P. Wang, J. K. Chen, C. H. Lee, G. H. Huang, M. C. Wang, S. W. Chen, Y. T. Kuan, H. C. Lin, C. Y. Huang, W. H. Liang, W. C. Lin, H. C. Yu
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The hi-tech industries in the Science Park at southern Taiwan were heavily damaged by a strong earthquake early 2016. The financial loss in this event was attributed primarily to the automated stocker system handling fully processed products, and recovery of the automated stocker system from the aftermath proved to contribute major lead time. Therefore, development of effective means for protection of stockers against earthquakes has become the highest priority for risk minimization and business continuity. This study proposes to mitigate the seismic response of the stockers by introducing viscous fluid dampers in between the ceiling and the top of the stockers. The stocker is expected to vibrate less violently with a passive control force on top. Linear damper is considered in this application with an optimal damping coefficient determined from a preliminary parametric study. The damper is small in size in comparison with those adopted for building or bridge applications. Component test of the dampers has been carried out to make sure they meet the design requirement. Shake table tests have been further conducted to verify the proposed scheme under realistic earthquake conditions. Encouraging results have been achieved by effectively reducing the seismic responses of up to 60% and preventing the FOUPs from falling off the shelves that would otherwise be the case if left unprotected. Effectiveness of adopting a viscous fluid damper for seismic control of the stocker on top against the ceiling has been confirmed. This technique has been adopted by Macronix International Co., LTD for seismic retrofit of existing stockers. Demonstrative projects on the application of the proposed technique are planned underway for other companies in the display industry as well.Keywords: hi-tech industries, seismic protection, automated stocker system, viscous fluid damper
Procedia PDF Downloads 3482484 A Comparative Analysis of the Private and Social Benefit-Cost Ratios of Organic and Inorganic Rice Farming: Case Study of Smallholder Farmers in the Aveyime Community, Ghana
Authors: Jerome E. Abiemo, Takeshi Mizunoya
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The Aveyime community in the Volta region of Ghana is one of the major hubs for rice production. In the past, rice farmers applied organic pesticides to control pests, and compost as a soil amendment to improve fertility and productivity. However, the introduction of chemical pesticides and fertilizers have led many farmers to convert to inorganic system of rice production, without considering the social costs (e.g. groundwater contamination and health costs) related to the use of pesticides. The study estimates and compares the private and social BCRs of organic and inorganic systems of rice production. Both stratified and simple random sampling techniques were employed to select 300 organic and inorganic rice farmers and 50 pesticide applicators. The respondents were interviewed with pre-tested questionnaires. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) which elucidates organic farmers` Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) was employed to estimate the cost of groundwater contamination. The Cost of Illness (COI) analysis was used to estimate the health cost of pesticide-induced poisoning of applicators. The data collated, was analyzed with the aid of Microsoft excel. The study found that high private benefit (e.g. increase in farm yield and income) was the most influential factor for the rapid adoption of pesticides among rice farmers. The study also shows that the social costs of inorganic rice production were high. As such the social BCR of inorganic farming (0.2) was low as compared to organic farming (0.7). Based on the results, it was recommended that government should impose pesticide environmental tax, review current agricultural policies to favour organic farming and promote extension education to farmers on pesticide risk, to ensure agricultural and environmental sustainability.Keywords: benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), inorganic farming, pesticides, social cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 4692483 Examining the Development of Complexity, Accuracy and Fluency in L2 Learners' Writing after L2 Instruction
Authors: Khaled Barkaoui
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Research on second-language (L2) learning tends to focus on comparing students with different levels of proficiency at one point in time. However, to understand L2 development, we need more longitudinal research. In this study, we adopt a longitudinal approach to examine changes in three indicators of L2 ability, complexity, accuracy, and fluency (CAF), as reflected in the writing of L2 learners when writing on different tasks before and after a period L2 instruction. Each of 85 Chinese learners of English at three levels of English language proficiency responded to two writing tasks (independent and integrated) before and after nine months of English-language study in China. Each essay (N= 276) was analyzed in terms of numerous CAF indices using both computer coding and human rating: number of words written, number of errors per 100 words, ratings of error severity, global syntactic complexity (MLS), complexity by coordination (T/S), complexity by subordination (C/T), clausal complexity (MLC), phrasal complexity (NP density), syntactic variety, lexical density, lexical variation, lexical sophistication, and lexical bundles. Results were then compared statistically across tasks, L2 proficiency levels, and time. Overall, task type had significant effects on fluency and some syntactic complexity indices (complexity by coordination, structural variety, clausal complexity, phrase complexity) and lexical density, sophistication, and bundles, but not accuracy. L2 proficiency had significant effects on fluency, accuracy, and lexical variation, but not syntactic complexity. Finally, fluency, frequency of errors, but not accuracy ratings, syntactic complexity indices (clausal complexity, global complexity, complexity by subordination, phrase complexity, structural variety) and lexical complexity (lexical density, variation, and sophistication) exhibited significant changes after instruction, particularly for the independent task. We discuss the findings and their implications for assessment, instruction, and research on CAF in the context of L2 writing.Keywords: second language writing, Fluency, accuracy, complexity, longitudinal
Procedia PDF Downloads 1482482 Parental Drinking and Risky Alcohol Related Behaviors: Predicting Binge Drinking Trajectories and Their Influence on Impaired Driving among College Students
Authors: Shiran Bord, Assaf Oshri, Matthew W. Carlson, Sihong Liu
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Background: Alcohol-impaired driving (AID) and binge drinking are major health concerns among college students. Although the link between binge drinking and AID is well established, knowledge regarding binge drinking patterns, the factors influencing binge drinking, and the associations between consumption patterns and alcohol-related risk behaviors is lacking. Aims: To examine heterogeneous trajectories of binge drinking during college and tests factors that might predict class membership as well as class membership outcomes. Methods: Data were obtained from a sample of 1,265 college students (Mage = 18.5, SD = .66) as part of the Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women (N = 1,265; 59.3% female; 69.2% white). Analyses were completed in three stages. First, a growth curve analysis was conducted to identify trajectories of binge drinking over time. Second, growth curve mixture modeling analyses were pursued to assess unobserved growth trajectories of binge drinking without predictors. Lastly, parental drinking variables were added to the model as predictors of class membership, and AID and being a passenger of a drunk driver were added to the model as outcomes. Results: Three binge drinking trajectories were identified: high-convex, medium concave and low-increasing. Parental drinking was associated with being in high-convex and medium-concave classes. Compared to the low-increasing class, the high convex and medium concave classes reported more AID and being a passenger of a drunk driver more frequently. Conclusions: Parental drinking may affect children’s later engagement in AID. Efforts should focus on parents' education regarding the consequences of parental modeling of alcohol consumption.Keywords: alcohol impaired driving, alcohol consumption, binge drinking, college students, parental modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2772481 Performance of Rural and Urban Adult Participants on Neuropsychological Tests in Zambia
Authors: Happy Zulu
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Neuropsychological examination is an important way of formally assessing brain function. While there is so much documentation about the influence that some factors, such as age and education, have on neuropsychological tests (NP), not so much has been done to assess the influence that residency (rural/urban) may have. The specific objectives of this study were to establish if there is a significant difference in mean test scores on NP tests between rural and urban participants and to assess which tests on the Zambia Neurobehavioural Test Battery (ZNTB) are more affected by the participants‘ residency (rural/urban) and to determine the extent to which education, gender, and age predict test performance on NP tests for rural and urban participants. The participants (324) were drawn from both urban and rural areas of Zambia (Rural = 152 and Urban = 172). However, only 234 participants (Rural = 152 and Urban 82) were used for all the analyses in this particular study. The 234 participants were used as the actual proportion of the rural vs urban population in Zambia was 65% : 35%, respectively (CSO, 2003). The rural-urban ratio for the participants that were captured during the data collection process was 152 : 172, respectively. Thus, all the rural participants (152) were included and 90 of the 172 urban participants were randomly excluded so that the rural/urban ratio reached the desired 65% : 35 % which was the required ideal statistic for appropriate representation of the actual population in Zambia. Data on NP tests were analyzed from 234 participants, rural (N=152) reflecting 65% and urban (N=82) reflecting 35%. T-tests indicated that urban participants had superior performances in all the seven NP test domains, and all the mean differences in all these domains were found to be statistically significant. Residency had a large or moderate effect in five domains, while its effect size was small only in two of the domains. A standard multiple regression revealed that education, age and residency as predictor variables made a significant contribution to variance in performance on various domains of the ZNTB. However, the gender of participants was not a major factor in determining one‘s performance on neuropsychological tests. This particular report is part of an ongoing, larger, cutting-edge study aimed at formulating the normative data for Zambia with regard to performance on neuropsychological tests. This is necessary for appropriate, effective, and efficient assessment or diagnosis of various neurocognitive and neurobehavioural deficits that a number of people may currently be suffering from. It has been shown in this study that it is vital to make careful analyses of the variables that may be associated with one‘s performance on neuropsychological tests.Keywords: neuropsychology, neurobehavioural, residency, Zambia
Procedia PDF Downloads 482480 Investigation of the Effect of Eye Exercises and Convergence Exercise on Visual Acuity in School-Age Children with Hypermetropia
Authors: Gulay Aras, Isil Kutluturk Karagoz, Z. Candan Algun
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Background: Hypermetropia in school-age is a pathology that responds to treatment. In the literature, there has been no study of exercise practice in hypermetropia treatment. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of eye exercises and convergence exercise on visual acuity in school-age children with hypermetropia. Methods: Forty volunteer school-age children with hypermetropia (30 girls, 30 boys, between 7-17 years of age) were included in the study. Sociodemographic information and clinical characteristics were evaluated. 40 participants were randomly divided into two groups: eye exercises and convergence exercises. Home exercise protocols were given to all groups for six weeks, and regular phone calls were made once a week. Individuals performed eye exercises 10 times, convergence exercises 5 min. for two sessions per day for six weeks. The right and left eyes of all the subjects participating in the study were assessed separately by the eye doctor with a Snellen chart. The participants' quality of life was assessed using Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory Version 4.0. Physical health total score (PHTS) and scale total score (STS), which were obtained by evaluating Psychosocial health total score (PSHTS) school, emotional and social functioning, were calculated separately in the scores. At the end of the exercise program, the assessment tests applied at the beginning of the study were reapplied to all individuals. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the pre- and post-Snellen chart measurements and quality of life in the eye exercises group (p > 0,05). There was a statistically significant difference in visual acuity of right and left eyes (p=0,004, p=0,014) and quality of life in PHTS, PSHTS and STS in the convergence exercise group (p=0,001, p=0,017, p=0,001). Conclusions: In school-age children, convergence exercises were found to be effective on visual acuity and health-related quality of life. Convergence exercises are recommended for the treatment of school-aged children with hypermetropia.Keywords: convergence exercise, eye exercises, hypermetropia, school-age children
Procedia PDF Downloads 2412479 An Assessment of Drainage Network System in Nigeria Urban Areas using Geographical Information Systems: A Case Study of Bida, Niger State
Authors: Yusuf Hussaini Atulukwu, Daramola Japheth, Tabitit S. Tabiti, Daramola Elizabeth Lara
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In view of the recent limitations faced by the township concerning poorly constructed and in some cases non - existence of drainage facilities that resulted into incessant flooding in some parts of the community poses threat to life,property and the environment. The research seeks to address this issue by showing the spatial distribution of drainage network in Bida Urban using Geographic information System techniques. Relevant features were extracted from existing Bida based Map using un-screen digitization and x, y, z, data of existing drainages were acquired using handheld Global Positioning System (GPS). These data were uploaded into ArcGIS 9.2, software, and stored in the relational database structure that was used to produce the spatial data drainage network of the township. The result revealed that about 40 % of the drainages are blocked with sand and refuse, 35 % water-logged as a result of building across erosion channels and dilapidated bridges as a result of lack of drainage along major roads. The study thus concluded that drainage network systems in Bida community are not in good working condition and urgent measures must be initiated in order to avoid future disasters especially with the raining season setting in. Based on the above findings, the study therefore recommends that people within the locality should avoid dumping municipal waste within the drainage path while sand blocked or weed blocked drains should be clear by the authority concerned. In the same vein the authority should ensured that contract of drainage construction be awarded to professionals and all the natural drainages caused by erosion should be addressed to avoid future disasters.Keywords: drainage network, spatial, digitization, relational database, waste
Procedia PDF Downloads 3272478 Characteristics of Himalayan Glaciers with Lakes, Kosi Sub-Basin, Ganga Basin: Based on Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques
Authors: Ram Moorat Singh, Arun Kumar Sharma, Ravi Chaurey
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Assessment of characteristics of Himalayan glaciers with or without glacier lakes was carried out for 1937glaciers of Kosi sub-basin, Ganga basin by using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Analysis of IRS-P6 AWiFS Data of 2004-07 periods, SRTM DEM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data (15year mean) using image processing and GIS tools has provided significant information on various glacier parameters. The glacier area, length, width, ice exposed area, debris cover area, glacier slope, orientation, elevation and temperature data was analysed. The 119 supra glacier lakes and 62 moraine dam/peri-glacier lakes (area > 0.02 km2) in the study were studied to discern the suitable glacier conditions for glacier lake formation. On analysis it is observed that the glacial lakes are preferably formed in association with large dimension glaciers (area, length and width), glaciers with higher percent ice exposed area, lower percent debris cover area and in general mean elevation value greater than 5300 m amsl. On analysis of lake type shows that the moraine dam lakes are formed associated with glaciers located at relatively higher altitude as compared to altitude of glaciers with supra glacier lakes. Analysis of frequency of occurrence of lakes vis a vis glacier orientation shows that more number of glacier lakes are formed associated with glaciers having orientation south, south east, south west, east and west directions. The supra glacial lakes are formed in association with glaciers having higher mean temperature as compared to moraine dam lakes as verified using LST data of 15 years (2000-2014).Keywords: remote sensing, supra glacial lake, Himalaya, Kosi sub-basin, glaciers, moraine-dammed lake
Procedia PDF Downloads 3672477 A Longitudinal Examination of the Impact of Treatment Modality on Relationship Satisfaction and Mental Health Quality of Life Outcomes among Prostate Cancer Survivors
Authors: Gabriela Ilie, Robert D. H. Rutledge
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A review of the literature reveals a need for longitudinal studies to properly understand the quality of life of prostate cancer survivors during their prostate cancer journey in order to identify opportunities for patient support and care during prostate cancer survivorship. In this study, mental health and relationship satisfaction were assessed longitudinally and by treatment modality among a population-based sample of Canadian adult men with a history of prostate cancer diagnosis. A total of 98 men, aged 51 or older with a history of prostate cancer completed an on-line 15-minute survey between May 2017 and February 2018, assessing mental health (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale) and relationship satisfaction (Dyadic Adjustment Scale) at baseline and at three months post-treatment with either active or nonactive prostate cancer treatment. Almost 1 in 6 men in this sample screened positive for mental health issues (17.34%, n=17) irrespective of treatment modality and most (n=11) were not currently on medication for depression, anxiety or both. Mental health outcomes were poorer for men with multimorbidity. For every instance of screening positive for mental health issues, 2.021 (95% CI:1.1 to 3.8) times more comorbidities were recorded. Relationship satisfaction and dyadic cohesion were statistically significantly lower from first assessment to 3 months for men who underwent multiple treatment modalities (surgery and radiation with hormonal therapy). Relationship satisfaction was also lower at 3 months for men who underwent radiation therapy. Almost 1 in 2 men in this sample (74%) indicated they did not attend a prostate cancer support group. Results suggest that treatment for mental health is underutilized in men with prostate cancer. Men who undergo multiple forms of active treatment appear more vulnerable to relationship dissatisfaction and feeling disconnected from their partner. Data points to important opportunities for patient education and care support during survivorship.Keywords: prostate cancer survivorship, mental health, quality of life, relationship satisfaction
Procedia PDF Downloads 1112476 Assessment of Sperm Aneuploidy Using Advanced Sperm Fish Technique in Infertile Patients
Authors: Archana. S, Usha Rani. G, Anand Balakrishnan, Sanjana.R, Solomon F, Vijayalakshmi. J
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Background: There is evidence that male factors contribute to the infertility of up to 50% of couples, who are evaluated and treated for infertility using advanced assisted reproductive technologies. Genetic abnormalities, including sperm chromosome aneuploidy as well as structural aberrations, are one of the major causes of male infertility. Recent advances in technology expedite the evaluation of sperm aneuploidy. The purpose of the study was to de-termine the prevalence of sperm aneuploidy in infertile males and the degree of association between DNA fragmentation and sperm aneuploidy. Methods: In this study, 75 infertile men were included, and they were divided into four abnormal groups (Oligospermia, Terato-spermia, Asthenospermia and Oligoasthenoteratospermia (OAT)). Men with children who were normozoospermia served as the control group. The Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) method was used to test for sperm aneuploidy, and the Sperm Chromatin Dispersion Assay (SCDA) was used to measure the fragmentation of sperm DNA. Spearman's correla-tion coefficient was used to evaluate the relationship between sperm aneuploidy and sperm DNA fragmentation along with age. P < 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: 75 partic-ipants' ages varied from 28 to 48 years old (35.5±5.1). The percentage of spermatozoa bear-ing X and Y was determined to be statistically significant (p-value < 0.05) and was found to be 48.92% and 51.18% of CEP X X 1 – nucish (CEP XX 1) [100] and CEP Y X 1 – nucish (CEP Y X 1) [100]. When compared to the rate of DNA fragmentation, it was discovered that infertile males had a greater frequency of sperm aneuploidy. Asthenospermia and OAT groups in sex chromosomal aneuploidy were significantly correlated (p<0.05). Conclusion: Sperm FISH and SCDA assay results showed increased sperm aneuploidy frequency, and DNA fragmentation index in infertile men compared with fertile men. There is a significant relationship observed between sperm aneuploidy and DNA fragmentation in OAT patients. When evaluating male variables and idiopathic infertility, the sperm FISH screening method can be used as a valuable diagnostic tool.Keywords: ale infertility, dfi (dna fragmentation assay) (scd-sperm chromatin dispersion).art (artificial reproductive technology), trisomy, aneuploidy, fish (fluorescence in-situ hybridization), oat (oligoasthoteratospermia)
Procedia PDF Downloads 472475 Occupational Health and Well-Being of Healthcare Workers at Tertiary Care Hospitals in Lahore, Pakistan: A Comparison of Public and Private Sector
Authors: Mehwish Sarfaraz Ahmad
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Background: There is a prevailing perception in Pakistan that private hospitals offer better services than government hospitals. Unfortunately, Pakistan faces challenges in providing efficient healthcare due to limited resources and management capabilities, resulting in demotivation among healthcare workers. Aim: The purpose of this study was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the occupational health and well-being of healthcare workers in both public and private sector tertiary care hospitals in Lahore, Pakistan, to compare the well-being of healthcare professionals in these two sectors and investigate the influence of workplace culture and experiences on their overall health. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using a validated International Questionnaire, and data from 440 participants was collected using a stratified random sampling technique from a diverse group of healthcare professionals from the public and private tertiary care hospitals in Lahore, Pakistan. The researcher conducted a comparative analysis using appropriate statistical tests, such as Anova, t-tests, chi-square tests, and regression analysis, to explore potential relationships between various factors. Results: The majority of respondents (70.2%) reported their health as "Good" or "Very good, a small percentage (8.2%) rated their health as "Poor," while 24.1% considered their health as "Fair". 39.6% reported being satisfied with their workplace culture, while a majority of 60.4% indicated being unsatisfied with their workplace culture. Results showed that workplace culture has a positive correlation with the overall health and well-being of healthcare professionals. The study found significant differences in health ratings, prevalence of chronic health conditions, workplace culture, and safety perceptions between healthcare professionals in public and private sector tertiary care hospitals. Conclusion: The study's findings emphasize the significance of promoting a positive workplace culture, ensuring workplace safety, and addressing chronic health conditions among healthcare workers.Keywords: occupational health and well-being, workplace culture, frequency of fatigue, availabity of benefits
Procedia PDF Downloads 582474 Exploring Perceptions of Local Stakeholders in Climate Change Adaptation in Central and Western Terai, Nepal
Authors: Shree Kumar Maharjan
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Climate change has varied impacts on diverse livelihood sectors, which is more prominent at the community level. The stakeholders and local institutions have been supporting the communities either by building adaptive capacities and resilience or minimizing the impacts of different adaptation interventions. Some of these interventions are effective, whereas others need further dynamisms and exertions considering the complexity of the risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, consolidated efforts of concerned stakeholders are required to minimize and adapt the present and future impacts. This study digs out and analyses the perceptions of local stakeholders in climate change adaptation in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Nepal through a questionnaire survey. The study has categorized the local stakeholders into 5 groups in the study sites – Farmers groups and cooperatives, Government, I/NGOs, Development banks and education and other organizations. The local stakeholders revealed flood, drought, cold wave and riverbank erosion as the major climatic risks and hazards found in the sites eventually impacting on the loss of agricultural production, loss of agricultural land and properties, loss of livestock, the emergence of diseases and pest. The stakeholders believed that most of the farmers dealing with these impacts based on their traditional knowledge and practices, followed by with the support of NGOs and with the help of neighbors and community. The major supports of the stakeholders to deal with these impacts were on training and awareness, risk analysis and minimization, livelihood improvement, financial support, coordination and networking and facilitation in policy formulation. The stakeholders emphasized primarily on capacity building, appropriate technologies, community-based planning and monitoring, prioritization to the poor and the marginalized and establishment of community fund respectively for building adaptive capacities.Keywords: climate change adaptation, local stakeholders, Madi, Deukhuri, Nepal
Procedia PDF Downloads 1752473 Community Involvement in Reducing Maternal and Perinatal Mortality in Cross River State, Nigeria: 'The Saving Mother Giving Life' Strategic Approach in Cross River State
Authors: Oluwayemisi Femi-Pius, Kazeem Arogundade, Eberechukwu Eke, Jimmy Eko
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Introduction: Globally, community involvement in improving their own health has been widely adopted as a strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa principally to ensure equitable access to essential health care as well as improve the uptake of maternal and newborn health services especially in poor-resource settings. Method: The Saving Mother Giving Life (SMGL) Initiative implemented by Pathfinder International with funding support from USAID conducted a Health Facility Assessment (HFA) and found out that maternal mortality ratio in Cross River State was 812 per 100,000 live birth and perinatal mortality was 160 per 1000 live birth. To reduce maternal and perinatal mortality, Pathfinder International mobilized, selected and trained community members as community volunteers, traditional birth attendants, and emergency transport service volunteer drivers mainly to address the delay in decision making and reaching the health facility among pregnant women. Results: The results showed that maternal mortality ratio in Cross River State decrease by 25% from 812 per 100,000 live birth at baseline to 206 per 100,000 live birth at June 2018 and perinatal mortality reduced by 35% from 160 per 100,000 at baseline to 58 per 1000 live birth at June 2018. Data also show that ANC visit increased from 7,451 to 11,344; institutional delivery increased from 8,931 at baseline to 10,784 in June 2018. There was also a remarkable uptake of post-partum family planning from 0 at baseline to 233 in June 2018. Conclusion: There is clear evidence that community involvement yields positive maternal outcomes and is pivotal for sustaining most health interventions.Keywords: maternal mortality, Nigeria, pathfinder international, perinatal mortality, saving mother giving life
Procedia PDF Downloads 1842472 Pterygium Recurrence Rate and Influencing Factors for Recurrence of Pterygium after Pterygium Surgery at an Eastern Thai University Hospital
Authors: Luksanaporn Krungkraipetch
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Pterygium is a frequent ocular surface lesion that begins in the limbal conjunctiva within the palpebral fissure and spreads to the cornea. The lesion is more common in the nasal limbus than in the temporal, and it has a wing-like aspect. Indications for surgery, in decreasing order of significance, are growth over the corneal center, decreased vision due to corneal deformation, documented growth, sensations of discomfort, and esthetic concerns. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to determine the frequency of pterygium recurrence after surgery at the mentioned hospital, and second, to identify the factors that influence the recurrence of pterygium. The research design is a retrospective examination of 164 patient samples in an eastern Thai university hospital (Code 13766). Data analysis is descriptive statistics analysis, i.e., basic data details about pterygium surgery and the risk of recurrent pterygium, and for factor analysis, the inferential statistics chi-square and ANOVA are utilized. Twenty-four of the 164 patients who underwent surgery exhibited recurrent pterygium. Consequently, the incidence of recurrent pterygium after surgery was 14.6%. There were an equal number of men and women present. The participants' ages ranged from 41 to 60 years (62, 8 percent). According to the findings, the majority of patients were female (60.4%), over the age of 60 (51.2%), did not live near the beach (83.5%), did not have an underlying disease (92.1%), and 95.7% did not have any other eye problems. Gender (X² = 1.26, p = .289), age (X² = 5.86, p = .119), an address near the sea (X² = 3.30, p = .081)), underlying disease (X² = 0.54, p = .694), and eye disease (X² = 0.00, p = 1.00) had no effect on pterygium recurrence. Recurrences occurred in 79.1% of all surgical procedures and 11.6% of all patients using the bare sclera technique. The recurrence rate for conjunctival autografts was 20.9% for all procedures and 3.0% for all participants. Mitomycin-C and amniotic membrane transplant techniques had no recurrence following surgery. Comparing the surgeries done on people with recurrent pterygium did not show anything important (F = 1.13, p = 0.339). In conclusion, the prevalence of pterygium recurrence following pterygium, 14.6%, does not differ from earlier research. Underlying disease, other eye conditions, and surgical procedures such as pterygium recurrence are unaffected by pterygium surgery.Keywords: pterygium, recurrence pterygium, pterygium surgery, excision pterygium
Procedia PDF Downloads 622471 Climate Change Effects in a Mediterranean Island and Streamflow Changes for a Small Basin Using Euro-Cordex Regional Climate Simulations Combined with the SWAT Model
Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici
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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble
Procedia PDF Downloads 2072470 Effect of Co-Infection With Intestinal Parasites on COVID-19 Severity: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study
Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Dawit Wolday, Muhamud Abdulkader
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Background: COVID-19 symptomatology in Africa appears significantly less serious than in the industrialized world. Our hypothesis for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections contributes to reduced COVID-19 outcome. We investigated this hypothesis in an endemic area in sub sub-saharan Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, while direct microscopic examination, modified Ritchie concentration, and Kato-Katz methods were used to identify parasites and ova from a fresh stool sample. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37•8%) had an intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10•6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51•8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients appeared parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0•14 (95% CI 0•09–0•24; p<0•0001) for all parasites, AOR 0•20 ([95% CI 0•11–0•38]; p<0•0001) for protozoa, and AOR 0•13 ([95% CI 0•07–0•26]; p<0•0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolopis nana, and Schistosoma mansoni implied a lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1•5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p=0•009). Conclusions: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, intestinal parasite, RT-PCR, co-infection
Procedia PDF Downloads 552469 Comparison of Fuel Properties from Species of Microalgae and Selected Second-Generation Oil Feedstocks
Authors: Andrew C. Eloka Eboka, Freddie L. Inambao
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Comparative investigation and assessment of microalgal technology as a biodiesel production option was studied alongside other second generation feedstocks. This was carried out by comparing the fuel properties of species of Chlorella vulgaris, Duneliella spp, Synechococus spp and Senedesmus spp with the feedstock of Jatropha (ex-basirika variety), Hura crepitans, rubber and Natal mahogany seed oils. The micro-algae were cultivated in an open pond using a photobioreactor (New Brunsink set-up model BF-115 Bioflo/CelliGen made in the US) with operating parameters: 14L capacity, working volume of 7.5L media, including 10% inoculum, at optical density of 3.144 @540nm and light intensity of 200 lux, for 23 and 16 days respectively. Various produced/accumulated biomasses were harvested by draining, flocculation, centrifugation, drying and then subjected to lipid extraction processes. The oils extracted from the algae and feedstocks were characterised and used to produce biodiesel fuels, by the transesterification method, using modified optimization protocol. Fuel properties of the final biodiesel products were evaluated for chemo-physical and fuel properties. Results revealed Chlorella vulgaris as the best strain for biomass cultivation, having the highest lipid productivity (5.2mgL-1h-1), the highest rate of CO2 absorption (17.85mgL-1min-1) and the average carbon sequestration in the form of CO2 was 76.6%. The highest biomass productivity was 35.1mgL-1h-1 (Chlorella), while Senedesmus had the least output (3.75mgL-1h-1, 11.73mgL-1min-1). All species had good pH value adaptation, ranging from 6.5 to 8.5. The fuel properties of the micro-algal biodiesel in comparison with Jatropha, rubber, Hura and Natal mahogany were within ASTM specification and AGO used as the control. Fuel cultivation from microalgae is feasible and will revolutionise the biodiesel industry.Keywords: biodiesel, fuel properties, microalgae, second generation, seed oils, feedstock, photo-bioreactor, open pond
Procedia PDF Downloads 3592468 Adequacy of Advanced Earthquake Intensity Measures for Estimation of Damage under Seismic Excitation with Arbitrary Orientation
Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Manthos K. Papadopoulos, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou
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An important area of research in seismic risk analysis is the evaluation of expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. Several conventional intensity measures of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them was proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage of any structural system. Therefore, alternative advanced intensity measures which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake intensity measures in prediction of structural damage of 3D R/C buildings under seismic excitation which attacks the building with arbitrary incident angle is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose, a symmetric in plan and an asymmetric 5-story R/C building are studied. The two buildings are subjected to 20 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The response is computed by non-linear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures determined for incident angle 0° as well as their maximum values over all seismic incident angles are correlated with 9 structure-specific ground motion intensity measures. The research identified certain intensity measures which exhibited strong correlation with the seismic damage of the two buildings. However, their adequacy for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.Keywords: damage indices, non-linear response, seismic excitation angle, structure-specific intensity measures
Procedia PDF Downloads 4902467 High and Low Salinity Polymer in Omani Oil Field
Authors: Intisar Al Busaidi, Rashid Al Maamari, Daowoud Al Mahroqi, Mahvash Karimi
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In recent years, some research studies have been performed on the hybrid application of polymer and low salinity water flooding (LSWF). Numerous technical and economic benefits of low salinity polymer flooding (LSPF) have been reported. However, as with any EOR technology, there are various risks involved in using LSPF. Ions exchange between porous media and brine is one of the Crude oil/ brine/ rocks (COBR) reactions that is identified as a potential risk in LSPF. To the best of our knowledge, this conclusion was drawn based on bulk rheology measurements, and no explanation was provided on how water chemistry changed in the presence of polymer. Therefore, this study aimed to understand rock/ brine interactions with high and low salinity brine in the absence and presence of polymer with Omani reservoir core plugs. Many single-core flooding experiments were performed with low and high salinity polymer solutions to investigate the influence of partially hydrolyzed polyacrylic amide with different brine salinities on cation exchange reactions. Ion chromatography (IC), total organic carbon (TOC), rheological, and pH measurements were conducted for produced aqueous phase. A higher increase in pH and lower polymer adsorption was observed in LSPF compared with conventional polymer flooding. In addition, IC measurements showed that all produced fluids in the absence and presence of polymer showed elevated Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K+, Cl- and SO₄²⁻ ions compared to the injected fluids. However, the divalent cations levels, mainly Ca²⁺, were the highest and remained elevated for several pore volumes in the presence of LSP. The results are in line with rheological measurements where the highest viscosity reduction was recorded with the highest level of Ca²⁺ production. Despite the viscosity loss due to cation exchange reactions, LSP can be an attractive alternative to conventional polymer flooding in the Marmul field.Keywords: polymer, ions, exchange, recovery, low salinity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1022466 Short-Term Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause Specific Cardiovascular Admissions in Beijing, China
Authors: Deginet Aklilu, Tianqi Wang, Endwoke Amsalu, Wei Feng, Zhiwei Li, Xia Li, Lixin Tao, Yanxia Luo, Moning Guo, Xiangtong Liu, Xiuhua Guo
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Extreme temperature-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have become a growing public health concern. However, the impact of temperature on the cause of specific CVDs has not been well studied in the study area. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of temperature on cause-specific cardiovascular hospital admissions in Beijing, China. We obtained data from 172 large general hospitals from the Beijing Public Health Information Center Cardiovascular Case Database and China. Meteorological Administration covering 16 districts in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. We used a time-stratified case crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to derive the impact of temperature on CVD in hospitals back to 27 days on CVD admissions. The temperature data were stratified as cold (extreme and moderate ) and hot (moderate and extreme ). Within five years (January 2013-December 2017), a total of 460,938 (male 54.9% and female 45.1%) CVD admission cases were reported. The exposure-response relationship for hospitalization was described by a "J" shape for the total and cause-specific. An increase in the six-day moving average temperature from moderate hot (30.2 °C) to extreme hot (36.9 °C) resulted in a significant increase in CVD admissions of 16.1%(95% CI = 12.8%-28.9%). However, the effect of cold temperature exposure on CVD admissions over a lag time of 0-27 days was found to be non significant, with a relative risk of 0.45 (95% CI = 0.378-0.55) for extreme cold (-8.5 °C)and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.47-0.60) for moderate cold (-5.6 °C). The results of this study indicate that exposure to extremely high temperatures is highly associated with an increase in cause-specific CVD admissions. These finding may guide to create and raise awareness of the general population, government and private sectors regarding on the effects of current weather conditions on CVD.Keywords: admission, Beijing, cardiovascular diseases, distributed lag non linear model, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 512465 Prevalence and Effect of Substance Use and Psychological Co-Morbidities in Medical and Dental Students of a Medical University of Nepal
Authors: Nidesh Sapkota, Garima Pudasaini, Dikshya Agrawal, Binav Baral, Umesh Bhagat, Dharanidhar Baral
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Background: Medical and Dental students are vulnerable to higher levels of Psychological distress than other age matched peers. Many studies reveals that there is high prevalence of psychoactive substance use and Psychiatric co-morbidities among them. Objectives: -To study the prevalence of substance use among medical and dental students of a Medical University. -To study the prevalence of depression and anxiety in medical and dental students of a Medical University. Materials and Method: A cross-sectional descriptive study in which simple random sampling was done. Semi-structured questionnaire, AUDIT for alcohol use, Fagerstrom test for Nicotine dependence, Cannabis screening test (CAST), Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI), Beck’s Anxiety Inventory (BAI) were used for the assessment. Results: Total sample size was 588 in which the mean age of participants was 22±2years. Among them the prevalence of alcohol users was 47.75%(281) in which 32%(90) were harmful users. Among 19.55%(115) nicotine users 56.5%(65), 37.4%(43), 6.1%(7) had low, low to moderate and moderate dependence respectively. The prevalence of cannabis users was 9%(53) with 45.3%(24), 18.9%(10) having low and high addiction respectively. Depressive symptoms were recorded in 25.3%(149) out of which 12.6%(74), 6.5%(38), 5.3%(31), 0.5%(3), 0.5%(3) had mild, borderline, moderate, severe and extreme depressive symptoms respectively. Similarly anxiety was recorded among 7.8%(46) students with 42 having moderate and 4 having severe anxiety symptoms. Among them 6.3%(37) had suicidal thoughts and 4(0.7%) of them had suicide attempt in last one year. Statistically significant association was noted with harmful alcohol users, Depression and suicidal attempts. Similar association was noted between Depression and suicide with moderate use of nicotine. Conclusion: There is high prevalence of Psychoactive substance use and psychiatric co-morbidities noted in the studies sample. Statistically significant association was noted with Psychiatric co-morbidities and substance use.Keywords: alcohol, cannabis, dependence, depression, medical students
Procedia PDF Downloads 4652464 Assessment Proposal to Establish the First Geo-Park in Egypt at Abu-Roash Area, Cairo
Authors: Kholoud Abdelmaksoud, Mahmoud Emam, Wael Al-Metwaly
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Egypt is known as cradle of civilization due to its ancient history and archeological sites, but Egypt possess also a cradle of Geo-sites, which qualify it to be listed as one of the most important Geo-heritage sites all over the country. Geology and landscape in Abu-Roash area is considered as one of the most important geological places (geo-sites) inside Cairo which help us to know and understand geology and geologic processes, so the area is used mainly for geological education purposes, also the area contain an archeological sites; pyramid complex, tombs, and Coptic monastery which give the area unique importance. Abu-Roash area is located inside Cairo 9 km north of the Giza Pyramids, which make the accessibility to the area easy and safe, the geology of Abu-Roash constitutes a complex Cretaceous sedimentary succession mass with showing outstanding tectonic features (Syrian Arc system event), these features are considered as a Geo-heritage, which will be the main designation of ‘Geo-parks’ establishing. The research is dealing with the numerous geo-sites found in the area, and its geologic and archeological importance, the relation between geo-sites and archeology, also the research proposed a detailed maps for these sites depicting Geo-routes and the hazardous places surrounding Abu-Roash area. The research is proposing a new proposal not applied in Egypt before, establishing a Geo-park, to promote this unique geo-heritage from hazardous factors and anthropogenic effects, also it will offer geo-educational opportunities to the general public and to the scientific community, enhancement of Geo-tourism which will be linked easily with the Ancient Egyptian tourism, it will also provide a significant economic benefit to Abu-Roash residential area. Finally, the research recommends that The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organizations promote conservation of geological and geo-morphological heritage to list this area for its importance under the umbrella of geo-parks.Keywords: geo-park, geo-sites, Abu-roash, archaeological sites, geo-tourism
Procedia PDF Downloads 2982463 Formulation, Nutritive Value Assessment And Effect On Weight Gain Of Infant Formulae Prepared From Locally Available Materia
Authors: J. T. Johnson, R. A. Atule, E. Gbodo
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The widespread problem of infant malnutrition in developing countries has stirred efforts in research, development and extension by both local and international organizations. As a result, the formulation and development of nutritious weaning foods from local and readily available raw materials which are cost effective has become imperative in many developing countries. Thus, local and readily available raw materials where used to compound and develop nutritious new infant formulae. The materials used for this study include maize, millet, cowpea, pumpkin, fingerlings, and fish bone. The materials where dried and blended to powder. The powders were weighed in the ratio of 4:4:4:3:1:1 respectively and were then mixed properly. Analysis of nutritive value was conducted on the formulae and compared with NAN-2 standard and results reveals that the formulae had reasonable amount of moisture, lipids, carbohydrate, protein, and fibre. Although NAN-2 was superior in both carbohydrate and protein, the new infant formula was higher in mineral elements, vitamins, fibre, and lipids. All the essentials vitamins and both macro and micro minerals where found in appreciable quantity capable of meeting the biochemical and physiological demand of the body while the anti-nutrients composition were significantly below FAO and WHO safe limits. Finally, the compounded infant formulae was feed to a set of albino Wistar rats while some other set of rats was feed with NAN-2 for the period of twenty seven (27) days and body weight was measure at three days intervals. The results of body weight changes was spectacular as their body weight over shot or almost double that of those animals that were feed with NAN-2 at each point of measurement. The results suggest that the widespread problem of infant malnutrition in the developing world especially among the low income segment of the society can now be reduced if not totally eradicated since nutritive and cost effective weaning formulae can be prepared locally from common readily available materials.Keywords: formulation, nutritive value, local, materials
Procedia PDF Downloads 3732462 Bacteriological Quality and Physicochemical Water Beaches of the City of Annaba (Mediterranean Sea)
Authors: Wahiba Boudraa, Farah Chettibbi, Meriem Aberkane, Fatma Djamaa, Moussa Houhamdi
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The intensity of human activities in regions surrounding the Mediterranean Sea always has a strong long-term environmental impact resulting in coastal and marine degradation, as well as an aggravated risk of more serious damage. The available data on water quality show that most water resources in Algeria are polluted by uncontrolled discharges from municipal sewage and untreated industrial effluents. Annaba is a coastal town in Algeria; The Gulf of Annaba, responds to these changes as it receives the continental inputs and urban waste, industrial without prior treatment of a highly industrialized and urbanized city, subject to the same environmental problems that know the rest of the Algerian coast. In later year, the beaches of bacterial enumeration process waters showed relatively high levels of bacterial indicators of fecal contamination (group D streptococci, total and fecal coliforms), which reflect the risks to people attending these beaches. During the twelve months of our study, we isolated from three beaches in the city of Annaba (St. Cloud, El-Kettara, and Djenane El Bey) a number of pathogenic microorganisms considered, namely: Salmonella, Aeromonas, Citrobacter, Yersinia, Enterococcus, and E.coli. The microbial count revealed elevated levels of coliform bacteria, fecal coliforms and fecal streptococci quite high especially in urban beaches (St. Cloud and El-Kettara). They are widely popular during the summer by many vacationers. For the physico-chemical parameters, there exist some weak values which increase during the pluvial period, hivernal and festival saison. These values remain, nevertheless, weak to be able to cause an organic or metallic pollution.Keywords: quality microbiology, pollution of water, fecal contamination, physico-chemistry, beaches of Annaba city, Algeria.
Procedia PDF Downloads 3372461 Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) Has Protective Effect on Colonic Inflammation: An in Vitro Study in Raw 264.7 and Caco-2 Cells
Authors: Aysegul Alyamac, Sukru Gulec
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Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) is a plant extract used to stop bleeding caused by injuries and surgical interventions. ABS also involved in wound healing of intestinal mucosal damage due to oxidative stress and inflammation. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a common chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that causes abdominal pain, diarrhea, and gastrointestinal bleeding, and increases the risk of colon cancer. Inflammation is an essential factor in the development of IBD. The various studies have been performed about the physiological effects of ABS; however, ABS dependent mechanism on colonic inflammation has not been elucidated. Thus, the protective effect of ABS on colonic inflammation was investigated in this study. The Caco-2 and RAW 264.7 murine macrophage cells were used as a model of in vitro colonic inflammation. RAW 264.7 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for 12 hours to induce the inflammation, and a conditional medium was obtained. Caco-2 cells were treated with 15 µl/ml ABS for 4 hours, then incubated with conditional medium and the cells also were incubated with 15 µl/ml ABS and conditional medium together for 4 hours. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) protein levels were targeted in testing inflammatory condition and its level was significantly increased (25 fold, p<0.001) compared to the control group by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The COX-2 mRNA level was used as a marker gene to show the possible anti-inflammatory effect of ABS in Caco-2 cells. RAW cells-derived conditional medium significantly (3.3 fold, p<0.001) induced cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) mRNA levels in Caco-2 cells. The pretreatment of Caco-2 cells caused a significant decrease (3.3 fold, p<0.001) in COX-2 mRNA levels relative to conditional medium given group. Furthermore, COX-2 mRNA level was significantly reduced (4,7 fold, p<0.001) in ABS and conditional medium treated group. These results suggest that ABS might have an anti-inflammatory effect in vitro.Keywords: Ankaferd blood stopper, CaCo-2, colonic inflammation, RAW 264.7
Procedia PDF Downloads 1372460 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis
Authors: Tengqin Han
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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2182459 Transmission Line Protection Challenges under High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources and Proposed Solutions: A Review
Authors: Melake Kuflom
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European power networks involve the use of multiple overhead transmission lines to construct a highly duplicated system that delivers reliable and stable electrical energy to the distribution level. The transmission line protection applied in the existing GB transmission network are normally independent unit differential and time stepped distance protection schemes, referred to as main-1 & main-2 respectively, with overcurrent protection as a backup. The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, commonly referred as “weak sources,” into the power network resulted in the decline of fault level. Traditionally, the fault level of the GB transmission network has been strong; hence the fault current contribution is more than sufficient to ensure the correct operation of the protection schemes. However, numerous conventional coal and nuclear generators have been or about to shut down due to the societal requirement for CO2 emission reduction, and this has resulted in a reduction in the fault level on some transmission lines, and therefore an adaptive transmission line protection is required. Generally, greater utilization of renewable energy sources generated from wind or direct solar energy results in a reduction of CO2 carbon emission and can increase the system security and reliability but reduces the fault level, which has an adverse effect on protection. Consequently, the effectiveness of conventional protection schemes under low fault levels needs to be reviewed, particularly for future GB transmission network operating scenarios. The proposed paper will evaluate the transmission line challenges under high penetration of renewable energy sources andprovides alternative viable protection solutions based on the problem observed. The paper will consider the assessment ofrenewable energy sources (RES) based on a fully rated converter technology. The DIgSILENT Power Factory software tool will be used to model the network.Keywords: fault level, protection schemes, relay settings, relay coordination, renewable energy sources
Procedia PDF Downloads 1932458 Hyponatremia in Community-Acquired Pneumonia
Authors: Emna Ketata, Wafa Farhat
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Introduction: Hyponatremia is defined by a blood sodium level of ≤ 136 mmol/L; it is associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality in the emergency room. This was explained by transit disorders, including diarrhea and inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion (Syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion). Pneumonia can cause dyspnea, stress-causing SIADH and digestive symptoms (diarrhea and vomiting). Aim: The purpose of this study was to determine the link between pneumonia and hyponatremia as a predictor of patient’s prognosis and intra-hospital mortality. Methodology: This is a prospective observational study over a period of 3 years in the emergency department. Inclusion :patients (age > 14 years), with clinical signs in favor of pneumonia. Natremia was measured. Natremia was classified as mild to moderate with a blood sodium level between 121 and 135 mmol/L and as severe with a blood sodium level ≤ 120 mmol/L. Results: This study showed an average serum sodium value of 135 mmol/L (range 114–159 mmol/L) in these patients. Hyponatremia was observed in 123 patients (43.6%), 115 patients (97,8%) had mild to moderate hyponatremia and 2,8% had severe hyponatremia. The mean age was 65±17 years with a sex ratio of 1.05. The main reason for consultation in patients with hyponatremia was cough in 58 patients (47.2%), and digestive symptoms were present in 25 patients (20.3. An altered state of consciousness was observed in 11 patients (3%). Patients with hyponatremia had greater heart rate (p=0.02),white blood cell count (p=0.009) , plasmatic lactate (p=0.002) and higher rate of pneumonia recurrence (p=0.001) .In addition, 80% of them have a positive CURB65 score (>=2). hyponatremia had higher rates of use of oxygen therapy compared to patients with normo-natremia (54% vs. 45%). The analytical study showed that hyponatremia is significantly associated with intra-hospital mortality with( p=0.01), severe hyponatremia p=0.04. Conclusion: Hyponatremia is a predictor of mortality and worse prognosis. Recognition of the pathophysiological mechanisms of hyponatremia in pneumonia will probably allow better management of it.Keywords: oxygenotherapy, mortality, recurrence, positif curb65
Procedia PDF Downloads 882457 Stability of Pump Station Cavern in Chagrin Shale with Time
Authors: Mohammad Moridzadeh, Mohammad Djavid, Barry Doyle
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An assessment of the long-term stability of a cavern in Chagrin shale excavated by the sequential excavation method was performed during and after construction. During the excavation of the cavern, deformations of rock mass were measured at the surface of excavation and within the rock mass by surface and deep measurement instruments. Rock deformations were measured during construction which appeared to result from the as-built excavation sequence that had potentially disturbed the rock and its behavior. Also some additional time dependent rock deformations were observed during and post excavation. Several opinions have been expressed to explain this time dependent deformation including stress changes induced by excavation, strain softening (or creep) in the beddings with and without clay and creep of the shaley rock under compressive stresses. In order to analyze and replicate rock behavior observed during excavation, including current and post excavation elastic, plastic, and time dependent deformation, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was performed. The analysis was also intended to estimate long term deformation of the rock mass around the excavation. Rock mass behavior including time dependent deformation was measured by means of rock surface convergence points, MPBXs, extended creep testing on the long anchors, and load history data from load cells attached to several long anchors. Direct creep testing of Chagrin Shale was performed on core samples from the wall of the Pump Room. Results of these measurements were used to calibrate the FEA of the excavation. These analyses incorporate time dependent constitutive modeling for the rock to evaluate the potential long term movement in the roof, walls, and invert of the cavern. The modeling was performed due to the concerns regarding the unanticipated behavior of the rock mass as well as the forecast of long term deformation and stability of rock around the excavation.Keywords: Cavern, Chagrin shale, creep, finite element.
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