Search results for: empirical%20mode%20decomposition%20%28EMD%29
1745 Study of the Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Islamic Finance
Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi
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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 2201744 Factors Affecting the Critical Understanding of the Strategies Which Children Use to Motivate Parents in the Family Buying Process: Case of British Bangladeshi Children in the UK
Authors: Salma Akter, Mohammad M. Haque, Lawrence Akwetey
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An empirical research design will analyze different factors/predictors children use to influence their parents in the family buying decision process in the unexplored area of British Bangladeshi children in the United Kingdom. The proposed conceptual model of factors- buying decision making process will be tested by the Structure Equation Model. A structured Questionnaire and secondary sources will employ to collect data and analyse and measure the validity by Statistical tools (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel. The Contemporary research aims to use the deductive approach developing the research questions and testing the hypothesis to identify the impact of different strategies British Bangladeshi children used to influence their parents in the family buying decision which was overlooked in the previous research.Keywords: British Bangladeshi children, buying decision process, children influence, influential factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 2581743 Interaction of Low-Energy Positrons with Mg Atoms: Elastic Scattering, Bound States, and Annihilation
Authors: Mahasen M. Abdel Mageed, H. S. Zaghloul
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Annihilations, phase shifts, scattering lengths, and elastic cross sections of low energy positrons scattering from magnesium atoms were studied using the least-squares variational method (LSVM). The possibility of positron binding to the magnesium atoms is investigated. A trial wavefunction is suggested to represent e+-Mg elastic scattering and scattering parameters were derived to estimate the binding energy and annihilation rates. The trial function is taken to depend on several adjustable parameters and is improved iteratively by increasing the number of terms. The present results have the same behavior as reported semi-empirical, theoretical, and experimental results. Especially, the estimated positive scattering length supports the possibility of positron-magnesium bound state system that was confirmed in previous experimental and theoretical work.Keywords: bound wavefunction, positron annihilation, scattering phase shift, scattering length
Procedia PDF Downloads 5401742 Genetic Divergence of Life History Traits in Indian Populations of Drosophila bipectinata
Authors: Manvender Singh
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Temperature is one of the most important climatic parameter for explaining the geographic distribution of ectothermic species. Empirical investigations on norms of the reaction according to developmental temperatures are helpful in analyzing the adapture capacity of a species which may be related to its ecological niche. In the present investigation, we have compared the effects of developmental temperatures on fecundity, hatchability, viability, and duration of development in five natural populations of Drosophila bipectinata along the latitudinal range. The clinal patterns for fecundity, as well as ovariole number, were observed which showed significant positive correlation (r=0.97). Similarly, hatchability and duration of development also revealed a positive correlation with latitude. Hence, suggesting the role of natural selection in maintaining the genetic divergence for life history traits along the north-south transect of the Indian Subcontinent.Keywords: growth temperature, fecundity, hatchability, viability, duration of development, Drosophila
Procedia PDF Downloads 2341741 Violence-Health Nexus: Examining the Impact of Ethnic Violence on Mental Health Disorders, A Global Perspective
Authors: Saqib Amina, Waqas Mehmoodb, Iftikhar Yasinc
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This study analyzes the robust association between ethnic violence and mental health from a global perspective (201-countries across the world) by using the panel data for the period 1970 to 2020. Mental health has been determined through various dimensions such as mental disorders, anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder. The empirical findings show that ethnic violence has a significant positive association with all types of mental health indicators, including mental disorders, anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder. The study also reveals that institutional quality may reduce the effect of mental health disorders in a better way than promoting democracy. This study suggests the non-stigmatizing social form of community-based support services instead of a stigmatizing the concept of mental illnesses that promotes hospitalization and drug treatment.Keywords: ethnic violence, unemployment, mental health, violence
Procedia PDF Downloads 1591740 Deradicalization for Former Terrorists through Entrepreneurship Program
Authors: Jamal Wiwoho, Pujiyono, Triyanto
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Terrorism is a real enemy for all countries, including Indonesia. Bomb attacks in some parts of Indonesia are proof that Indonesia has serious problems with terrorism. Perpetrators of terror are arrested and imprisoned, and some of them were executed. However, this method did not succeed in stopping the terrorist attacks. Former terrorists continue to carry out bomb attacks. Therefore, this paper proposes a program towards deradicalization efforts of former terrorists through entrepreneurship. This is necessary because it is impossible to change their radical ideology. The program is also motivated by understanding that terrorists generally come from poor families. This program aims to occupy their time with business activities so there is no time to plan and carry out bomb attacks. This research is an empirical law study. Data were collected by literature study, observation, and in-depth interviews. Data were analyzed with the Miles and Huberman interactive model. The results show that the entrepreneurship program is effective to prevent terrorist attack. Former terrorists are busy with their business. Therefore, they have no time to carry out bomb attacks.Keywords: deradicalization, terrorism, terrorists, entrepreneurship
Procedia PDF Downloads 2601739 Capital Mobility in Savings and Investment across China and the ASEAN-5: Evidence from Recursive Cointegration
Authors: Chang Lee Shu-Jung, Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Hui-Ting Hu
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This paper applies recursive cointegration analysis to examine the dynamic changes in Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment (S-I) coefficients across China and the ASEAN-5 countries over time. To the extent that the S-I coefficients measure international capital mobility, the main empirical results are as follows. The recursive trace statistics show that the investment- savings nexus varies in these six countries. There is no cointegration between investment and savings in three countries (China, Malaysia, and Singapore), which means that the mobility of the capital markets in the three is high and that domestic investment in them will be financed by the global pool of capital. As to the other three countries (Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines), there is cointegration between investment and savings for part of the sample period in the three, including before 2002 for Thailand, before 2001 for Indonesia, and before 2002 for Philippines. This shows these three countries achieved highly mobile and open capital markets later.Keywords: investment, savings, recursive cointegration test, ASEAN, China
Procedia PDF Downloads 5421738 Is the Okun's Law Valid in Tunisia?
Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached
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The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters
Procedia PDF Downloads 3041737 Volatility Transmission between Oil Price and Stock Return of Emerging and Developed Countries
Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri
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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission
Procedia PDF Downloads 4261736 Product Modularity, Collaboration and the Impact on Innovation Performance in Intra-Organizational R&D Networks
Authors: Daniel Martinez, Tim de Leeuw, Stefan Haefliger
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The challenges of managing a large and geographically dispersed R&D organization have been further increasing during the past years, concentrating on the leverage of a geo-graphically dispersed body of knowledge in an efficient and effective manner. In order to reduce complexity and improve performance, firms introduce product modularity as one key element for global R&D network teams to develop their products and projects in collaboration. However, empirical studies on the effects of product modularity on innovation performance are really scant. Furthermore, some researchers have suggested that product modularity promotes innovation performance, while others argue that it inhibits innovation performance. This research fills this gap by investigating the impact of product modularity on various dimensions of innovation performance, i.e. effectiveness and efficiency. By constructing the theoretical framework, this study suggests that that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between product modularity and innovation performance. Moreover, this research work suggests that the optimum of innovation performance efficiency will be at a higher level than innovation performance effectiveness at a given product modularity level.Keywords: modularity, innovation performance, networks, R&D, collaboration
Procedia PDF Downloads 5111735 The Effect of the Enterprises Being Classified as Socially Responsible on Their Stock Returns
Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Chia-Ching Tsai
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The aim of this study is to examine the stock price effect of the enterprises being classified as socially responsible. We explore the stock price response to the announcement that an enterprise is selected for the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards. Empirical results indicate that the announcements of the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards provide useful informational content to stock market. We find the evidence of insignificantly positive short-term and significantly positive long-term price reaction to the enterprises being classified as socially responsible. This study concludes that investors in the Taiwan stock market tend to view an enterprise being selected for the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards as one with superior quality and long-term price potential.Keywords: corporate social responsibility, stock price effect, Taiwan stock market, investments
Procedia PDF Downloads 1481734 Improvement and Miniaturization RFID Patch Antenna by Inclusion the Complementary Metamaterials
Authors: Seif Naoui, Lassaad Latrach, Ali Gharsallah
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This paper is specialized to highlight the method of miniaturization and improvement the patch antenna by using the complementary metamaterial. This method is presented by a simple technique is composed a structure of patch antenna integrated in its surface a cell of complementary split ring resonator. This resonator is placed at the middle of the radiating patch in parallel with the transmission line and with a variable angle of orientation. The objective is to find the ultimate angle where the best results are obtained on improving the characteristics of the considered antenna. This motif widespread at the traceability applications by wireless communication for RFID technology at the operation frequency 2.45 GHz. Our contribution is based on studies empirical often presented in this article. All simulation results were made by the CST Microwave Studio.Keywords: complimentary split ring resonators, computer simulation technology microwave studio, metamaterials patch antennas, microstrip patch antenna, radio frequency identification
Procedia PDF Downloads 4331733 Empirical Exploration of Correlations between Software Design Measures: A Replication Study
Authors: Jehad Al Dallal
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Software engineers apply different measures to quantify the quality of software design. These measures consider artifacts developed at low or high level software design phases. The results are used to point to design weaknesses and to indicate design points that have to be restructured. Understanding the relationship among the quality measures and among the design quality aspects considered by these measures is important to interpreting the impact of a measure for a quality aspect on other potentially related aspects. In addition, exploring the relationship between quality measures helps to explain the impact of different quality measures on external quality aspects, such as reliability and maintainability. In this paper, we report a replication study that empirically explores the correlation between six well known and commonly applied design quality measures. These measures consider several quality aspects, including complexity, cohesion, coupling, and inheritance. The results indicate that inheritance measures are weakly correlated to other measures, whereas complexity, coupling, and cohesion measures are mostly strongly correlated.Keywords: quality attribute, quality measure, software design quality, Spearman correlation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2901732 A Numerical Investigation of Lamb Wave Damage Diagnosis for Composite Delamination Using Instantaneous Phase
Authors: Haode Huo, Jingjing He, Rui Kang, Xuefei Guan
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This paper presents a study of Lamb wave damage diagnosis of composite delamination using instantaneous phase data. Numerical experiments are performed using the finite element method. Different sizes of delamination damages are modeled using finite element package ABAQUS. Lamb wave excitation and responses data are obtained using a pitch-catch configuration. Empirical mode decomposition is employed to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMF). Hilbert–Huang Transform is applied to each of the resulting IMFs to obtain the instantaneous phase information. The baseline data for healthy plates are also generated using the same procedure. The size of delamination is correlated with the instantaneous phase change for damage diagnosis. It is observed that the unwrapped instantaneous phase of shows a consistent behavior with the increasing delamination size.Keywords: delamination, lamb wave, finite element method, EMD, instantaneous phase
Procedia PDF Downloads 3101731 Corporate Social Responsibility Practices and Financial Performance: The Case of French Unlisted SMEs
Authors: Zineb Abidi, Marc-Arthur Diaye
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There exists a large empirical literature concerning the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate financial performance. This literature, however, applies mainly to large corporations and/or listed firms. To the best of our knowledge, the question of whether meeting CSR requirements impacts the financial performance of small and medium-sized unlisted SMEs has not so far been analyzed. This paper aims to analyze, for the first time, the effect of CSR on the financial performance of SMEs. Using an original database including 5,257 French SMEs, we show that adopting CSR practices has a positive but weak effect on a firm’s financial performance. To develop this further, we analyzed CSR practices interactions assessing the best combination of CSR components that positively influence SME financial performance. Our results show that French SMEs benefit more from their pro-social behavior when they choose a combination of CSR components best adapted to their individual characteristics.Keywords: corporate social responsibility, financial performance, unlisted firms, SMEs
Procedia PDF Downloads 1621730 Missing Narratives and Their Potential Impact on Resettlement Strategies
Authors: Natina Roberts, Hanhee Lee
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The existing and emerging refugee research reports unfavorable resettlement outcomes in multiple domains. The proposed paper highlights trends in refugee research in which empirical studies investigate resettlement of former refugees from individual and culturally homogeneous perspectives. The proposed paper then aims to examine the reality of the lived experience of resettlement from family and cross-cultural viewpoints. Proponents for this focus include the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The UNHCR is responsible for leading resettlement efforts for refugees through the durable solutions of repatriation, local integration and resettlement. Life experiences with refugee families, and a report of literary findings on former refugee resettlement from various cultural backgrounds – that highlight similarities and differences among various ethnic groups, will be discussed. The proposed paper is expected to frame underrepresented refugee perspectives, and review policy implications in healthcare, education, and public support systems.Keywords: refugee, cross-cultural, families, resettlement policy
Procedia PDF Downloads 2601729 A Generalized Family of Estimators for Estimation of Unknown Population Variance in Simple Random Sampling
Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain
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This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 2171728 Empirical Study on Causes of Project Delays
Authors: Khan Farhan Rafat, Riaz Ahmed
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Renowned offshore organizations are drifting towards collaborative exertion to win and implement international projects for business gains. However, devoid of financial constraints, with the availability of skilled professionals, and despite improved project management practices through state-of-the-art tools and techniques, project delays have become a norm these days. This situation calls for exploring the factor(s) affecting the bonding between project management performance and project success. In the context of the well-known 3M’s of project management (that is, manpower, machinery, and materials), machinery and materials are dependent upon manpower. Because the body of knowledge inveterate on the influence of national culture on men, hence, the realization of the impact on the link between project management performance and project success need to be investigated in detail to arrive at the possible cause(s) of project delays. This research initiative was, therefore, undertaken to fill the research gap. The unit of analysis for the proposed research excretion was the individuals who had worked on skyscraper construction projects. In reverent studies, project management is best described using construction examples. It is due to this reason that the project oriented city of Dubai was chosen to reconnoiter on causes of project delays. A structured questionnaire survey was disseminated online with the courtesy of the Project Management Institute local chapter to carry out the cross-sectional study. The Construction Industry Institute, Austin, of the United States of America along with 23 high-rise builders in Dubai were also contacted by email requesting for their contribution to the study and providing them with the online link to the survey questionnaire. The reliability of the instrument was warranted using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.70. The appropriateness of sampling adequacy and homogeneity in variance was ensured by keeping Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) and Bartlett’s test of sphericity in the range ≥ 0.60 and < 0.05, respectively. Factor analysis was used to verify construct validity. During exploratory factor analysis, all items were loaded using a threshold of 0.4. Four hundred and seventeen respondents, including members from top management, project managers, and project staff, contributed to the study. The link between project management performance and project success was significant at 0.01 level (2-tailed), and 0.05 level (2-tailed) for Pearson’s correlation. Before initiating the moderator analysis test for linearity, multicollinearity, outliers, leverage points and influential cases, test for homoscedasticity and normality were carried out which are prerequisites for conducting moderator review. The moderator analysis, using a macro named PROCESS, was performed to verify the hypothesis that national culture has an influence on the said link. The empirical findings, when compared with Hofstede's results, showed high power distance as the cause of construction project delays in Dubai. The research outcome calls for the project sponsors and top management to reshape their project management strategy and allow for low power distance between management and project personnel for timely completion of projects.Keywords: causes of construction project delays, construction industry, construction management, power distance
Procedia PDF Downloads 2101727 Sustainability Model for Rural Telecenter Using Business Intelligence Technique
Authors: Razak Rahmat, Azizah Ahmad, Rafidah Razak, Roshidi Din, Azizi Abas
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Telecenter is a place where communities can access computers, the Internet, and other digital technologies to enable them to gather information, create, learn, and communicate with others. However, previous studies found that sustainability issues related to economic, political and institutional, social and technology is one of the major problem faced by the telecenter. Based on that problem, this research is planning to design a possible solution on rural telecenters sustainability with the support of business intelligence (BI). The empirical study will be conducted through the qualitative and quantitative method including interviews and observations with a range of stakeholders including ministry officers, telecenters managers and operators. Result from the data collection will be analyze using the causal modeling approach of SEM SmartPLS for the validity. The expected finding from this research is the Business Intelligent Requirement Model as a guild for sustainability of the rural telecenters.Keywords: Rural ICT Telecenter(RICTT), business intelligence, sustainability, requirement analysis modal
Procedia PDF Downloads 4801726 A Long Short-Term Memory Based Deep Learning Model for Corporate Bond Price Predictions
Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami
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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition
Procedia PDF Downloads 1281725 Empirical Study on the Organizational Role Stress and its Effect on Private and Government Sector Employees
Authors: Rashmi Shahu
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This is a comparative study of the Organizational Role Stress among the private and government sector employees. There was no known similar kind of Organizational Role Stress study in the field area i.e. Nagpur city. Hence, in order to understand the ORS level pertaining to the government and private sector employees in various offices it was taken as the subject for this study. The Method used for this study was the incidental sampling method. The Organizational Role Scale containing 50 statements related to the ten different ORS areas was used for observations. All 60 participants were tested. The results of the study show that there was a significant difference in only one area of ORS i.e. Personal Inadequacy for the participants. The employees from the private sector showed higher Personal Inadequacy than the government employees. Rest of the ORS areas showed no significant difference meaning that the employees were well adjusted in the respective areas.Keywords: organozational role stress, private sector, government sector, personal inadequacy
Procedia PDF Downloads 3531724 Decision Support System for a Pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System in Central Chile
Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M. L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano
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Flash floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work, we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.Keywords: decision support systems, early warning systems, flash flood, natural hazard
Procedia PDF Downloads 3651723 Copula Markov Switching Multifractal Models for Forecasting Value-at-Risk
Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya
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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 1581722 Earnings-Related Information, Cognitive Bias, and the Disposition Effect
Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao
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This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.Keywords: cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall
Procedia PDF Downloads 2151721 The Role of Tourism Industry in the Creation of Youth Employment Opportunities in Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria
Authors: Isiya Salihu Shinkafi
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The focus of this paper is to elaborate on employment opportunities within the tourism sector and the solutions to youth unemployment in Africa and Nigeria in particular. Youth unemployment creates a monumental social problem to African continent, the world over and Nigeria in particular. The intelligence of this paper was collected from secondary sources using previews researches and analysis of scholars to gather empirical data. The findings revealed that unemployment in Africa and specifically Nigeria among youths were caused by certain factors which constitute a greater challenge to the economy and the existence of the continent. The tourism sector provides the enabling environment to address the different categories of unemployment among the youths. One of the unique characteristics of the tourism industry that makes it a prime sector from which employment can be engineered; especially in the case of the African countries, are its labour intensive characteristics of both experts, skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled labour.Keywords: tourism industry, employment opportunities, youth employment
Procedia PDF Downloads 4951720 Simulation of the Performance of the Reforming of Methane in a Primary Reformer
Authors: A. Alkattib, M. Boumaza
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Steam reforming is industrially important as it is incorporated in several major chemical processes including the production of ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and ox alcohols. Due to the strongly endothermic nature of the process, a large amount of heat is supplied by fuel burning (commonly natural gas) in the furnace chamber. Reaction conversions, tube catalyst life, energy consumption and CO2 emission represent the principal factors affecting the performance of this unit and are directly influenced by the high operating temperatures and pressures. This study presents a simulation of the performance of the reforming of methane in a primary reformer, through a developed empirical relation which enables to investigate the effects of operating parameters such as the pressure, temperature, steam to carbon ratio on the production of hydrogen, as well as the fraction of non-converted methane. It appears from this analysis that the exit temperature Te, the operating pressure as well the steam to carbon ratio has an important effect on the reforming of methane.Keywords: reforming, methane, performance, hydrogen, parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 2191719 Attitudes towards Recreation: An Empirical Study of Youth’s Recreation Development in Bida-Nigeria
Authors: Kingsley Ononogbo, Ashiru Bello
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The purpose of this study is to determine the factors responsible for the inclination of the youths of Bida to passive recreation, with a view to finding out whether their occupations influence their attitudes towards active recreation. Using the 5-point Likert scale, a total number of 267 participants were drawn from the two major wards in Bida town. They are Cheniyan and Nassarafu. Study evidence revealed that youths were constrained from participating in active recreation due to preoccupation with family responsibilities and lack of their choices of recreational facilities. The result of the Chi Square Test showed that the youths had positive attitudes towards physical exercises, while the Spearman’s Correlation (r=0.21) signifies a positive but weak correlation. The P- value, however, equals .7610 which is greater than 0.05 and, so significant. The study concluded by suggesting regular enlightenment programmes, focusing on the values of participating in active recreation, and building and maintenance of desired neighborhood recreation facilities for youths, as a measure to encourage them to take part in the active form of recreation.Keywords: attitudes, Bida, recreation development, recreation of youth
Procedia PDF Downloads 3331718 The Effect of Sumatra Fault Earthquakes on West Malaysia
Authors: Noushin Naraghi Araghi, M. Nawawi, Syed Mustafizur Rahman
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This paper presents the effect of Sumatra fault earthquakes on west Malaysia by calculating the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A uniform catalog of earthquakes for the interest region has been provided. We used empirical relations to convert all magnitudes to Moment Magnitude. After eliminating foreshocks and aftershocks in order to achieve more reliable results, the completeness of the catalog and uncertainty of magnitudes have been estimated and seismicity parameters were calculated. Our seismic source model considers the Sumatran strike slip fault that is known historically to generate large earthquakes. The calculations were done using the logic tree method and four attenuation relationships and slip rates for different part of this fault. Seismic hazard assessment carried out for 48 grid points. Eventually, two seismic hazard maps based PGA for 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year are presented.Keywords: Sumatra fault, west Malaysia, PGA, seismic parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 3961717 An Improved Heat Transfer Prediction Model for Film Condensation inside a Tube with Interphacial Shear Effect
Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev
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The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.Keywords: film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 2371716 The Strategic Management Affect to Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation of Businesses in Thailand
Authors: Kawinphat Lertpongmanee
Abstract:
The purpose of this research is to examine the relationships among business collaboration effectiveness, modern management excellence, proactive operational management, and firm performance to bring competitive advantage to the firm. Furthermore, the population and sample selected are exporters on textile businesses in Thailand in total of 566 companies. The data were collected by questionnaire survey and sent direct to the directors or managerial managers of each company which is appropriate as the key informant of this research. Moreover, the statistic to test hypothesis uses the hierarchical multiple regression analysis and provides those five hypotheses to testing. The results show direct effect that the business collaboration effectiveness has a significantly positive influence on firm performance, meaning that, the collaboration is an important factor in global business both internal and external of firms that reflect the linkage of business to create competitive advantage and gain benefits simultaneously of the firms efficiently also.Keywords: business collaboration effectiveness, firm performance, modern management excellence, strategic management
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