Search results for: geopolitical crisis

Authors: Vakhtang Geladze, Nana Bolashvili, Tamazi Karalashvili, Nino Machavariani, Vajha Neidze, Nana Kvirkvelia, Tamar Chichinadze

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Deficiency of fresh water is a vital global problem today. It must be taken into consideration that in the nearest future fresh water crisis will become even more acute owing to the global climate warming and fast desertification processes in the world. Georgia has signed the association agreement with Euro Union last year where the priority spheres of cooperation are the management of water resources, development of trans-boundary approach to the problem and active participation in the “Euro Union water initiative” component of “the East Europe, Caucasus and the Central Asia”. Fresh water resources are the main natural wealth of Georgia. According to the average water layer height, Georgia is behind such European countries only as Norway, Switzerland and Austria. The annual average water provision of Georgia is 4-8 times higher than in its neighbor countries Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite abundant water resources in Georgia, there is considerable discrepancy between their volume and use in some regions because of the uneven territorial distribution. In the East Georgia, water supply of the territory and population is four times less than in the West Georgia.

Keywords: GIS, water consumption, water management, water resources

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

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Authors: Damla Tas, Robert Rudolf

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Fast economic development and women empowerment in Korea have contributed to an unprecedented family and gender crisis, with Korean fertility rates at a global record low. This study explores the predictors and time trends of Korean women’s attitudes toward family formation and the household division of labor by using the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families from 2007 to 2018. Results indicate that education, age, marital status, and motherhood are significantly associated with women’s attitudes toward family formation and gender attitudes toward the intrahousehold division of labor. In addition, more educated women and those aged 26 to 45 are less likely to support traditional marriage and traditional household division of labor statements. Unmarried and divorced women are more likely to support progressive values and roles. Also, retrospective factors such as mothers’ schooling and parents’ relationship are significantly associated with gender role ideology. Our findings also indicate a downward trend in the number of Korean women stating one must have children. The study suggests that Korean families and society need to adjust to women’s changing preferences concerning their societal roles toward less traditional. Hence, a new agreement between men and women is needed on how work can be divided more equally.

Keywords: marriage, family formation, intrahousehold division of labor, gender role attitudes, Korea

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Authors: Chariton Christou, David Cornwell

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Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is the type of contract that is being used widely in our time. The financial crisis made the governments tightfisted and they do not have the resources to participate in a development of a field. Therefore, more and more countries introduce the PSC. The companies have the power and the money to develop the field with their own way. The main problem is the transparency of oil and gas companies especially in the PSC and how this can be achieved. Many discussions have been made especially in the U.K. What we are suggesting is a dynamic financial simulation with the help of a flow meter. The flow meter will count the production of each field every day (it will be installed in a pipeline). The production will be the basic input of the simulation. It will count the profit, the costs and more according to the information of the flow meter. In addition it will include the terms of the contract and the costs that have been paid. By all these parameters the simulation will be able to present in real time the information of a field (taxes, employees, R-factor). By this simulation the company will share some information with the government but not all of them. The government will know the taxes that should be paid and what is the sharing percentage of it. All of the other information could be confidential for the company. Furthermore, oil company could control the R-factor by changing the production each day to maximize its sharing percentages and as a result of this the profit. This idea aims to change the way that governments 'control' oil companies and bring a transparency evolution in the industry. With the help of a simulation every country could be next to the company and have a better collaboration.

Keywords: production sharing contracts, transparency, simulation

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Authors: Anna K. Wood, Terri Friedline

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In April and May 2020, the private banking industry approved over 1.7 million emergency small business loans, totaling over $650 billion in federal relief funds as part of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Since the program’s rollout, the extensive evidence of discriminatory lending and misuse of funds has been revealed by investigative journalism and academic studies. This study is based on 41 interviews with frontline banking industry professionals conducted during the days and weeks of the PPP rollout, presenting a real-time narrative of the program rollout through the eyes of those in the role of a street-level bureaucrat. We present two themes from this data about the conditions under which these frontline workers experienced the PPP: Exigent Timelines and Defaulting to Existing Workplace Norms and Practices. We analyze these themes using literature on street-level organizations, bureaucratic discretion, and the differences between public and private sector logic. The results of this study present new directions for theorizing sector-level differences in street-level bureaucratic discretion in the context of mixed-sector collaboration on public service delivery, particularly under conditions of crisis and urgency.

Keywords: street level bureaucracy, social policy, bureaucratic discretion, public private partnerships

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Authors: Nkatow Mafany Christian

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According to UNHCR’s annual Database, humanitarian crises have globally been on the increase since the beginning of the 21st Century, especially in the Middle East and in Sub-Saharan Africa. Cameroon is one of the countries that has suffered tremendously from humanitarian challenges in recent years, especially with crises in the Far North, the East and its Two English-speaking Regions. These have been a result of failed mechanisms in conflict resolution peacebuilding by the government. The paper draws from this basic premise to argue that the failure to reach a consensus in order to curb internal conflicts has largely been due to the government’s attachment to the domineering attitude which emphasizes an imposition of peace terms by a superordinate (government) agency on the subordinate (aggrieved) entities. This has stalled peace efforts that have so far been engaged to address the dreaded armed conflicts in the North and South West Regions, leading to the persistence of the armed conflict. The paper exploits written, oral and online sources to sustain its argument. It suggests that an eclectic approach to resolving conflicts, which emphasizes open and frank dialogue as well as a review of the root causes, can go a long way not only to build trust but also to address the Anglophone-Cameroonian problems in Cameroon.

Keywords: conflict, conflict resolution, peace building, humanitarian crisis

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Authors: Brian Kristopher Cambra

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Millions of displaced families are seeking refuge in countries that are not their own due to war, violence, persecution, political unrest, and natural disasters. This global crisis is forcing researchers and practitioners to consider how refugees are coping with the trauma associated with their migration process. Effective therapeutic approaches are needed in a global effort to address the traumatic impact of forced migration. This meta-analytical study investigates the effectiveness of expressive therapeutic modalities, including play, art, music, sandplay, theatre, and writing therapies, in helping children and adolescents cope with refugee trauma. Seventeen pre-post and between-group comparison studies were analyzed using a random-effects model. The combined effect size for pre-post comparisons was medium (g = 0.58), whereas the combined effect size for between-group comparisons was small (g = 0.32). Overall, art therapy was found to be most effective in treating stress symptoms. Heterogeneity tests, however, suggest effect sizes cannot be interpreted as meaningful due to substantial variance. Nevertheless, findings of this meta-analysis indicate that expressive therapies may be among beneficial modalities to integrate with other trauma-informed approaches.

Keywords: expressive therapies, forced migration, meta-analysis, refugees, trauma

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Authors: Afolakemi Helen Olaleye, Ogunjobi A. O

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Since coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Nigeria, the virus has spread to virtually all sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. In Nigeria, government agencies came together to create a goal-driven taskforce in improving our response against the virus. As COVID-19 international spread has been curtailed, community spread became rampant locally, leading to many health authorities raising concerns over the scarcity of medical consumables and supplies. Here at Lagos university teaching Hospital (LUTH), we present data analysis of COVID-19 infections offered at our Hospital (LUTH) and the surrounding communities. In addition, the adopted innovative solution to control the spread of infection, methods used in filling shortages of consumables, personal protective equipment (PPE), and use of mobile video technology in patient’s consultation. The management style and strategy adopted has led to a decline in infection rates in our community and among our front line staff. The current COVID -19 crisis has created an opportunity to test and demonstrate our pandemic response and control of infectious disease along with the revealed unknown potential in our community.

Keywords: COVID-19, preparedness, response, Lagos university teaching hospital

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Authors: Ivana Bulog, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Sandra Pepur

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The financial fragility of households has received increased attention following the recent health crisis, which has created uncertainty and caused increased levels of stress and consequently impaired individual and family well-being. Job losses and/or reduced wages and insecurity increased the number of people that were unable to meet unexpected expenses, which, in many cases, led to increased household debt levels. This presents a threat to the stability of the financial system and the whole economy; therefore, reducing financial fragility and improving financial literacy present challenges for academicians, practitioners, and policymakers. Concerning financial fragility, significant research attention has been devoted to financial knowledge and financial literacy. However, apart from specific knowledge, personal characteristics are of great importance in making financial decisions in the household. Self-efficacy is one of the personal non-cognitive attributes that is a valuable framework for understanding how household financial decisions are made. Thus, this research proposes that individual levels of financial literacy and self-efficacy are related to the indebtedness and financial instability of the household. The primary data were collected using a structured, self-administered online questionnaire, and a snowball sampling method was applied to reach the participants. Preliminary results confirm our assumptions on the influence of financial literacy and self-efficacy on household financial stability.

Keywords: financial literacy, self-efficacy, household financial fragility, well-being

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Authors: S. Fantin

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This study is the result of the legal research on cybersecurity and data protection within the EUNITY (Cybersecurity and Privacy Dialogue between Europe and Japan) project, aimed at fostering the dialogue between the European Union and Japan. Based on the research undertaken therein, the author offers an outline of the main asymmetries in the laws governing such fields in the two regions. The research is a comparative analysis of the two legal frameworks, taking into account specific provisions, ratio legis and policy initiatives. Recent doctrine was taken into account, too, as well as empirical interviews with EU and Japanese stakeholders and project partners. With respect to the protection of personal data, the European Union has recently reformed its legal framework with a package which includes a regulation (General Data Protection Regulation), and a directive (Directive 680 on personal data processing in the law enforcement domain). In turn, the Japanese law under scrutiny for this study has been the Act on Protection of Personal Information. Based on a comparative analysis, some asymmetries arise. The main ones refer to the definition of personal information and the scope of the two frameworks. Furthermore, the rights of the data subjects are differently articulated in the two regions, while the nature of sanctions take two opposite approaches. Regarding the cybersecurity framework, the situation looks similarly misaligned. Japan’s main text of reference is the Basic Cybersecurity Act, while the European Union has a more fragmented legal structure (to name a few, Network and Information Security Directive, Critical Infrastructure Directive and Directive on the Attacks at Information Systems). On an relevant note, unlike a more industry-oriented European approach, the concept of cyber hygiene seems to be neatly embedded in the Japanese legal framework, with a number of provisions that alleviate operators’ liability by turning such a burden into a set of recommendations to be primarily observed by citizens. With respect to the reasons to fill such normative gaps, these are mostly grounded on three basis. Firstly, the cross-border nature of cybercrime brings to consider both magnitude of the issue and its regulatory stance globally. Secondly, empirical findings from the EUNITY project showed how recent data breaches and cyber-attacks had shared implications between Europe and Japan. Thirdly, the geopolitical context is currently going through the direction of bringing the two regions to significant agreements from a trade standpoint, but also from a data protection perspective (with an imminent signature by both parts of a so-called ‘Adequacy Decision’). The research conducted in this study reveals two asymmetric legal frameworks on cyber security and data protection. With a view to the future challenges presented by the strengthening of the collaboration between the two regions and the trans-national fashion of cybercrime, it is urged that solutions are found to fill in such gaps, in order to allow European Union and Japan to wisely increment their partnership.

Keywords: cybersecurity, data protection, European Union, Japan

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Authors: Etibar Guliyev, Durdana Jafarli

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The breakdown of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and the 9/11 attacks resulted in the global changes created a totally new geopolitical situation for the Muslim populated republics of the former Soviet Union. Located between great powers such as China and Russia, as well as theocratic states like Iran and Afghanistan, the newly independent Central Asian states were facing a dilemma to choose a new politico-ideological course for development. Policies dubbed Perestroyka and Glasnost leading to the collapse of the world’s once superpower brought about a considerable rise in the national and religious self-consciousness of the Muslim population of the USSR where the religion was prohibited under the strict communist rule. Moreover, the religious movements prohibited during the Soviet era acted as a part of national straggle to gain their freedom from Moscow. The policies adopted by the Central Asian countries to manage the religious revival and extremism in their countries vary dramatically from each other. As Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are located between Russia and China and hosting a considerable number of the Russian population, these countries treated Islamic revival more tolerantly trying benefit from it in the nation-building process. The importance of the topic could be explained with the fact that it investigates an alternative way of management of religious activities and movements. The recent developments in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq in particular, and the fact that hundreds of fighters from the Central Asian republics joined the ISIL terrorist organization once again highlights the implications of the proper regulation of religious activities not only for domestic, but also for regional and global politics. The paper is based on multiple research methods. The process trace method was exploited to better understand the Russification and anti-religious policies to which the Central Asian countries were subject during the Soviet era. The comparative analyse method was also used to better understand the common and distinct features of the politics of religion of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and the rest of the Central Asian countries. Various legislation acts, as well as secondary sources were investigated to this end. Mostly constructivist approach and a theory suggesting that religion supports national identity when there is a third cohesion that threatens both and when elements of national identity are weak. Preliminary findings suggest that in line with policies aimed at gradual reduction of Russian influence, as well as in the face of ever-increasing migration from China, the mentioned countries incorporated some Islamic elements into domestic policies as a part and parcel of national culture. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan did not suppress religious activities, which was case in neighboring states, but allowed in a controlled way Islamic movements to have a relatively freedom of action which in turn led to the less violent religious extremism further boosting national identity.

Keywords: identity, Islam, nationalism, terrorism

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Authors: Sarah Noaman

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Utilizing renewable resources has become extensive solution for most problems in Egypt nowadays. It plays role in environmental issues such as energy crisis, lake of natural resources and climate change. This paper focuses on the importance of working with the key concepts of creating eco-friendly spaces in Egypt by using traditional perennial plants, such as Guadua bamboo as renewable resources in structures manufacture. Egypt is in critical need to search for alternative raw materials. Thus, this paper focuses on studying the usage of neglected yet affordable materials, such as Guadua bamboo in light weight structures and digital fabrication. Guadua bamboo has been cultivated throughout in tropical and subtropical areas. In Egypt, they exist in many rural areas where people try to control their growth by using pesticides as it serves no economic purpose. This paper aims to discuss the usage of Guadua bamboo either in its original state or after fabrication in the context of interior design and architecture. The results will show the applicability of using perennial plants as complementary materials in the manufacturing processes; also the conclusion will focus the lights on the importance of re-forming shallow water plants in interior design and architecture.

Keywords: digital fabrication, Guadua bamboo, zero-waste material, sustainable material, interior architecture

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Authors: Alisha Fisher

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Sex trafficking is a worldwide crisis that requires trauma-informed and survivor-centered media attention to accurate disseminate information. Much of the previous literature on sex trafficking tends to focus on the frequency of incidents, intervention, and support strategies for survivors, with few of them looking to how the media is conducting their reporting on sex trafficking cases to the public. Utilizing data of reports from the media of cases of sex trafficking in the two Canadian provinces with the highest cases of sex trafficking, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the authors sought to analyze the similarities and differences of how sex trafficking cases were being reported. A total of twenty articles were examined, with ten based within the province of Ontario and the remaining ten from the province of Nova Scotia. The authors coded in two processes, first, who the article was about, and second, the framing and content inclusion. The results suggest that there is high usage and reliance of voices and images of authority, with male people of color being shown as the perpetrators and white women being shown as the survivors. These findings can aid in the expansion of trauma-informed, survivor-centered media literacy of reports of sex trafficking to provide accurate insights and further developing robust methods to intersectional approaches to reporting cases of sex trafficking.

Keywords: sex trafficking, media coverage, Canada sex trafficking, content analysis

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Authors: Borja Bordel, Ramón Alcarria, Marina Pérez

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In March 2020, in Spain, a sanitary and unexpected crisis caused by COVID-19 was declared. All of a sudden, all degrees, classes and evaluation tests and projects had to be transformed into online activities. However, the chaotic situation generated by a complex operation like that, executed without any well-established procedure, led to very different experiences and, finally, results. In this paper, we are describing three experiences in two different Universities in Madrid. On the one hand, the Technical University of Madrid, a public university with little experience in online education. On the other hand, Alfonso X el Sabio University, a private university with more than five years of experience in online teaching. All analyzed subjects were related to computer engineering. Professors and students answered a survey and personal interviews were also carried out. Besides, the professors’ workload and the students’ academic results were also compared. From the comparative analysis of all these experiences, we are extracting the most successful strategies, methodologies, and activities. The recommendations in this paper will be useful for courses during the next months when the sanitary situation is still affecting an educational organization. While, at the same time, they will be considered as input for the upcoming digitalization process of higher education.

Keywords: educational experience, online education, higher education digitalization, COVID, Spain

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Sonalee Das, Smita Mohanty, S. K. Nayak

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Recent years has witnessed the increasing demand for natural resources and products in polyurethane synthesis because of global warming, sustainable development and oil crisis. For this purpose, different plant oils such as soybean oil, castor oil and linseed oil are extensively used. Moreover, the isocyanate used for the synthesis of polyurethane is derived from petroleum resources. In this present work attempts have been made for the successful synthesis of biobased isocyanate from castor oil with partially biobased isocyanate in presence of catalyst dibutyltin dilaurate (DBTDL). The goal of the present study was to investigate the thermal, mechanical, morphological and chemical properties of the synthesized polyurethane in terms of castor oil modification. The transesterified polyol shows broad and higher hydroxyl value as compared to castor oil which was confirmed by FTIR studies. The FTIR studies also revealed the successful synthesis of bio based polyurethane by showing characteristic peaks at 3300cm-1, 1715cm-1 and 1532cm-1 respectively. The TGA results showed three step degradation mechanism for the synthesized polyurethane from modified and unmodified castor oil. However, the modified polyurethane exhibited higher degradation temperature as compared to unmodified one. The mechanical properties also demonstrated higher tensile strength for modified polyurethane as compared to unmodified one.

Keywords: castor oil, partially biobased Isocyanate, polyurethane synthesis, FTIR

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Authors: Eriba Christopher Inyila, Godwin Egena Oga

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Statecraft appears to be one of the greatest cultural achievements in the history of man’s civilization. The state itself is often portrayed as the supreme community of the citizen’s collective goodness and will. However, history experience reveals that the state has often been held in captivity permanently in the hand of the political class to almost a total exclusion of the labouring class of workers, artisans and peasants. Consequently, the hallmark of the Nigerian state and society in contemporary era is state of permanent crisis characterized by poverty, unemployment and profound insecurity. A lasting solution to this state of anomie is often touted in terms of ethnic, religious and regional integration which border on non-material perception of realities. A neglected aspect of the approach to the study of recurrent problems in contemporary is the materialist conception of realties through class perspectives of the society. The cutting edge of the approach is found in the attempt to reconcile the contradiction between the productive forces and the social relation of production. In other words, the contemporary state is skewed in favour of ownership of properties/commanding height of economy predominantly in the hands of the few monopoly companies to the total exclusion of majority of Nigerian population classified as peasant, workers and artisan. The lopsided situation creates economic and social disequilibria.

Keywords: national development, class, the state, Nigeria

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Authors: Kanzumba Kusakana

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is currently experiencing a general energy crisis due to lack of proper investment and management in the energy sector. 93, 6% of the country is highly dependent on wood fuels as main source of energy having severe impacts such as deforestation and general degradation of the environment. On the other hand, the major share of the electricity produced mainly from ill-conditioned hydro and thermal power stations is principally used to supply the industrial sector as well as very few urban areas. Nevertheless, DRC possesses huge potential in renewable resources such as hydropower, biomass, methane gas, solar geothermal and moderate wind potential that can be used for energy generation. Recently the country has initiated projects to build decentralized micro hydropower station to supply remotes and isolated areas; to rehabilitate its existent main hydropower plants and transmission lines as well as to extend its current generation capacity by building new hydropower stations able to respond to a major part of the African continent energy needs. This paper presents a comprehensive review of current energy resources as well as of the electricity situation in DRC. Recent energy projects, the energy policy as well as the energy challenges in the DRC are also presented.

Keywords: energy, biomass, hydro power, renewable energy, energy policy, Democratic Republic of Congo

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Authors: Tae Ho Kim

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Using the center of gravity method, we intend to find the center of gravity of Eurasia and North America, focusing on the local population, and study economic development plans in Eurasia and North America. By analyzing the strengths and opportunities of an industrial location for each region, we find ways for the country to grow and develop. Through economic cooperation and support between countries, we want to reduce the cause of conflict and dispute through economic growth in countries or regions. Furthermore, we want to create conditions for peaceful and happy regions or countries. Eurasia and North America are rich in resources, have great growth potential in terms of global supply chains, and have a good position to develop further. By analyzing intimacy between countries using REM, a CRM method, we intend to transform it into a region where a hopeful future of peace and prosperity begins. The future can be transformed through positive thinking or love for humanity. Indicators of intimacy between countries or regions can also be created anew if they change how they view each other. The Earth we live on is facing great risks, such as climate change and war. In order to reduce this crisis and maintain peace and prosperity, we must cooperate with each other in new directions.

Keywords: supply chain economy, REM, Indicators of intimacy, peace and prosperity

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Authors: Pascual García, Francisco Ochoa, Jessica Ordoñez

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The links between migration and development have been widely written and analyzed from different perspectives. However, the nexus between entrepreneurship and migration is of recent interest. The different studies related to this have focused on the ventures of ethnic enclaves, or on transnational businesses, which link the community of origin and destination. Beyond this perspective, this work analyzes the return migration, (a few studies until now, but forming part of a theoretical body of migration). As a result of the European crisis started between 2007-2008. Many Ecuadorians who lived in Europe, decided to return to their place of origin. The rise of the price of the oil and commodities presented a better panorama in Ecuador than in Europe. Faced with the magnitude of returnees, the opportunities for entrepreneurship in Ecuador increased (Accumulation of human capital, social capital, learned skills and capital). Thus there is an interest in the possibility of returned migrants in the country to start a business in their place of origin. The following study is the result of this. A survey of 110 returned migrants was carried out in the south of Ecuador and, using a Probit econometric model, we determined that the variables specified as geographic area, sex, education level are not significant, so they are not determinant when undertaking. However, time abroad and skills learned, if they were significant at the time of the decision to start a business.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, development, migration, returned migration

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Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

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The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

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Authors: Mojtaba Heydarizad

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Khorasan Razavi is the second most important province in north-east of Iran, which faces a water shortage crisis due to recent droughts and huge water consummation. Kardeh and Torogh dam reservoirs in this province provide a notable part of Mashhad metropolitan (with more than 4.5 million inhabitants) potable water needs. Hydrochemical analyses on these dam reservoirs samples demonstrate that MgHCO₃ in Kardeh and CaHCO₃ and to lower extent MgHCO₃ water types in Torogh dam reservoir are dominant. On the other hand, Gibbs binary diagram demonstrates that rock weathering is the main factor controlling water quality in dam reservoirs. Plotting dam reservoir samples on Mg²⁺/Na⁺ and HCO₃^-/Na⁺ vs. Ca²⁺/ Na⁺ diagrams demonstrate evaporative and carbonate mineral dissolution is the dominant rock weathering ion sources in these dam reservoirs. Cluster Analyses (CA) also demonstrate intense role of rock weathering mainly (carbonate and evaporative minerals dissolution) in water quality of these dam reservoirs. Studying water quality by the U.S. National Sanitation Foundation (NSF) WQI index NSF-WQI, Oregon Water Quality Index (OWQI) and Canadian Water Quality Index DWQI index show moderate and good quality.

Keywords: hydrochemistry, water quality classification, water quality indexes, Torogh and Kardeh dam reservoir

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Authors: Okwan Frank

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Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.

Keywords: economic growth, maternal mortality, pool mean group, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Ilhan Keskin, Hasan Bulent Kantarci

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In this study, one of the tools of Islamic financing known as “Sukuk” a non-interest bearing investment which has started to be implemented in Turkey and the world as a whole is discussed. In order to increase the vitality and efficiency of the economy, by taking lessons from the recent economic crisis new developments in the banking and investment sector are being expanded. The purpose of all investors is to obtain more revenue through the use of capital. The inability of traditional investment tools to meet the expectations of investors and the interest based financial system where one investor benefits at the expense of another there has been the need for a different, reliable and non-interest bearing financial market that is consistent with the Islamic rule. As a result an alternative and more reliable interest free financing tool “Sukuk” rental certificates covering people who are sensitive to Islamic rules, appeal to all segments, hidden remaining capital that contributes to the economy, reduce disparities in income distribution, common risk sharing system of profit and loss sharing has emerged. Today, for the structural countries by examining the state of the world market economy the applicability, enactment and future issues associated with this attractive kind of Islamic finance namely the “Sukuk” market has been explained.

Keywords: Islamic finance, islamic markets, non-interest bearing, rental certificates

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Authors: Lynmar M. Didal, Ramises G. Manzano Jr., Jacque Bon-Isaac C. Aboy

Abstract:

This study analyzes the performance of global minimum variance and naive portfolios across different economic periods, using monthly stock returns from the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI), S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW). The performance is evaluated through the Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, Treynor ratio, and Information ratio. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of short selling on portfolio performance. Six-time periods are defined for analysis, encompassing events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings indicate that the Naive portfolio generally outperforms the GMV portfolio in the S&P 500, signifying higher returns with increased volatility. Conversely, in the PSEI and DOW, the GMV portfolio shows more efficient risk-adjusted returns. Short selling significantly impacts the GMV portfolio during mid-GFC and mid-COVID periods. The study offers insights for investors, suggesting the Naive portfolio for higher risk tolerance and the GMV portfolio as a conservative alternative.

Keywords: portfolio performance, global minimum variance, naïve portfolio, risk-adjusted metrics, short-selling

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Sungwoo Park

Abstract:

The paper attempts to investigate the correlation between climate change and migration that has caused violent disputes in some regions of the world. Recently, NGOs and educational institutions have proposed claims that migratory patterns and violent uprisings are intertwined with climate change. Thus, the paper is primarily concerned with collecting evidences provided from scholars, validating this significant connection between climate change and migration, and evaluating and suggesting current and future research approaches respectively to enhance the acknowledgment and protection of environmental refugees. In order to examine the linkage of environmental migration, primary sources, such as political speeches, and secondary sources like theses from environmental policy analysts, books, and reports are used. More specifically, the investigation focuses on an civil war in Syria to draw a connection between environmental migration and violent dispute that threatens the global security. The examination undertaken specifically analyzes examples where forced migration occurred due to climate change. In Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Kiribati, residents have been at risk of fleeing their countries because of abnormal climate patterns, such as the rise of sea level or an excessive heat stress. As the brutal uprising in Syria has proven that climate change can pose a significant threat to global security, correlation between climate change and migration is surely worth delving into.

Keywords: climate change, climate migration, global security, refugee crisis

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Authors: Ibrahim Danjuma, Dahiru Dauda Hammawa

Abstract:

Economic growth and development can be driven by entrepreneurial innovation. The Nigerian economy has faced numerous obstacles over the past few years, including the energy crisis, the death and winding up of many small and medium enterprises, high unemployment rates, and escalating inflation, amongst others. Entrepreneurial innovation has emerged as a potential catalyst for revitalizing the troubled economy and driving sustainable growth. Entrepreneurial innovation can revitalize key industries and foster job creation. This paper proposes significant options as key drivers to entrepreneurial innovation that can take the troubled Nigerian economy out of the woods. It also discusses the significance of government assistance and regulatory actions in fostering entrepreneurial creativity. It argues that initiatives such as funding support, infrastructure development, and regulatory reforms are necessary for fostering a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem in Nigeria in order to unlock the full potential of innovative entrepreneurs. Finally, the paper emphasizes the transformative power of entrepreneurial innovation in revamping the troubled Nigerian economy and calls for concerted efforts by all stakeholders to harness its potential for sustainable growth and development. By fostering a culture of innovation, fostering entrepreneurship, and supporting emerging ventures, Nigeria can overcome its economic challenges and pave the way for a prosperous future.

Keywords: entrepreneurial innovation, entrepreneurial ecosystem, troubled economy, Nigeria

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Authors: Mohammed Kamal Alhassan

Abstract:

The closeness of Turkey to Greece has often been a cause of many disagreements between the people of the two countries. This is against the backdrop of the fact that they have many things in common. In the past, the two countries have had unhealthy relations, which threatened to cut diplomatic ties between them. The 1996 Imia/ Kardak incident and the Öcalan crisis, for instance, nearly resulted in war between them. There were events that also brought the two countries together, for instance, the 1999 earthquake. This was because many lives were lost during the disaster. It is important to note that these events were duly covered by the media in the two countries. First of all, the study intends to look at the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy in Turkey-Greece relations. It examines the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy with particular emphasis on agenda-setting and positioning theories of the media as the theoretical framework. Also, the study will discuss the media landscapes in Turkey and Greece, the ownership pattern of the media sector and the relationship between media organizations and the government in the two countries. Moreover, the core foreign policy objectives of the countries will be delved into. Finally, the study employs a qualitative method to critically analyze the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy in Turkey-Greece relations. It uses the invitation of the Former Prime Minister of Greece, George Andreas Papandreou, to the Ambassadors Conference in Turkey as a case study. In the end, the analysis will prove that, indeed, the media in Greece was effective in the formulation of foreign policy in its relations with Turkey.

Keywords: media organizations, foreign policy, government, diplomacy

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Authors: Musa M. Umar, S. G. Ado

Abstract:

The paper examines the activities of the National Programme for food security (NPFS) for averting food insecurity in Nigeria and beyond. The components of the NPFS include site development, outreach, community development and management support. On each site, core activities comprise crop productivity, production diversification and agro-processing. The outreach activities consist of inputs and commodity marketing, rural finance, strengthening research-extension-farmers-inputs linkages, health and nutrition and expansion of site activities. The community development activities include small-scale rural infrastructure, micro-earth dams and community forestry. The overall benefits include food security, improved productivity, marketing and processing, enhanced land and water use, increased animal production and fish catches, improved nutrition, reduction in post-harvest losses and value addition, improved rural infrastructure and diversification of production leading to improved livelihood. The NPFS would poster sustained development of small-holder agricultural and income generation.

Keywords: food-security, community development, post-harvest, production

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Debarpita Pande

Abstract:

On 22nd May 2013 Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on his visit to Pakistan tabled a proposal for connecting Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with the south-western Pakistani seaport of Gwadar via the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (hereinafter referred to as CPEC). The project, popularly termed as 'One Belt One Road' will encompass within it a connectivity component including a 3000-kilometre road, railways and oil pipeline from Kashgar to Gwadar port along with an international airport and a deep sea port. Superficially, this may look like a 'game changer' for Pakistan and other countries of South Asia but this article by doctrinal method of research will unearth some serious flaws in it, which may change the entire economic system of this region heavily affecting the socio-economic conditions of South Asia, further complicating the complete geopolitical situation of the region disturbing the world economic stability. The paper besets with a logical analyzation of the socio-economic issues arising out of this project with an emphasis on its impact on the Pakistani and Indian economy due to Chinese dominance, serious tension in international relations, security issues, arms race, political and provincial concerns. The research paper further aims to study the impact of huge burden of loan given by China towards this project where Pakistan already suffers from persistent debts in the face of declining foreign currency reserves along with that the sovereignty of Pakistan will also be at stake as the entire economy of the country will be held hostage by China. The author compares this situation with the fallout from projects in Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and several countries of Africa, all of which are now facing huge debt risks brought by Chinese investments. The entire economic balance will be muddled by the increment in Pakistan’s demand of raw materials resulting to the import of the same from China, which will lead to exorbitant price-hike and limited availability. CPEC will also create Chinese dominance over the international movement of goods that will take place between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans and hence jeopardising the entire economic balance of South Asia along with Middle Eastern countries like Dubai. Moreover, the paper also analyses the impact of CPEC in the context of international unrest and arms race between Pakistan and India as well as India and China due to border disputes and Chinese surveillance. The paper also examines the global change in economic dynamics in international trade that CPEC will create in the light of U.S.-China relationship. The article thus reflects the grave consequences of CPEC on the international economy, security and bilateral relations, which surpasses the positive impacts of it. The author lastly suggests for more transparency and proper diplomatic planning in the execution of this mega project, which can be a cause of economic complexity in international trade in near future.

Keywords: China, CPEC, international trade, Pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 174