Search results for: elderly care service model

Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Kim Sorensen, Thomas Condra

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Wet scrubbers are used for flue gas desulfurization by injecting water directly into the flue gas stream from a set of sprayers. The water droplets will flow freely inside the scrubber, and flow down along the scrubber walls as a thin wall film while reacting with the gas phase to remove SO₂. This complex multiphase phenomenon can be divided into three main contributions: the continuous gas phase, the liquid droplet phase, and the liquid wall film phase. This study proposes a complete model, where all three main contributions are taken into account and resolved using OpenFOAM for the continuous gas phase, and MATLAB for the liquid droplet and wall film phases. The 3D continuous gas phase is composed of five species: CO₂, H₂O, O₂, SO₂, and N₂, which are resolved along with momentum, energy, and turbulence. Source terms are present for four species, energy and momentum, which are affecting the steady-state solution. The liquid droplet phase experiences breakup, collisions, dynamics, internal chemistry, evaporation and condensation, species mass transfer, energy transfer and wall film interactions. Numerous sub-models have been implemented and coupled to realise the above-mentioned phenomena. The liquid wall film experiences impingement, acceleration, atomization, separation, internal chemistry, evaporation and condensation, species mass transfer, and energy transfer, which have all been resolved using numerous sub-models as well. The continuous gas phase has been coupled with the liquid phases using source terms by an approach, where the two software packages are couples using a link-structure. The complete CFD model has been verified using 16 experimental tests from an existing scrubber installation, where a gradient-based pattern search optimization algorithm has been used to tune numerous model parameters to match the experimental results. The CFD model needed to be fast for evaluation in order to apply this optimization routine, where approximately 1000 simulations were needed. The results show that the complex multiphase phenomena governing wet scrubbers can be resolved in a single model. The optimization routine was able to tune the model to accurately predict the performance of an existing installation. Furthermore, the study shows that a coupling between OpenFOAM and MATLAB is realizable, where the data and source term exchange increases the computational requirements by approximately 5%. This allows for exploiting the benefits of both software programs.

Keywords: desulfurization, discrete phase, scrubber, wall film

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Authors: Mohd Yusri Ibrahim

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Youth participation in social work is essential in social and community development. Although many studies have been conducted to identify the determinant of youth involvement, few studies were discussed interaction between communication skills and youth participation in volunteerism. This article will discuss a cross-sectional study that was conducted to identify the relationship between communication skills and youth participation in social work. The results were successfully developed an interaction model of communication skills as predictor to participation criteria among youth. Finally, the article was suggested several ways to encourage youth participation in community by developing their communication skill in various stages.

Keywords: youth, participation, communication skill, social work

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Authors: Amjaad Alsalamah, Liyakathunsia Syed

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Transportation is an essential need for many people to go to their work, school, and home. In particular, the main common method inside many cities is to drive the car. Driving a car can be an easy job to reach the destination and load all stuff in a reasonable time. However, deciding to find a parking lot for a car can take a long time using the traditional system that can issue a paper ticket for each customer. The old system cannot guarantee a parking lot for all customers. Also, payment methods are not always available, and many customers struggled to find their car among a numerous number of cars. As a result, this research focuses on providing an online smart parking system in order to save time and budget. This system provides a flexible management system for both parking owner and customers by receiving all request via the online system and it gets an accurate result for all available parking and its location.

Keywords: smart parking system, IoT, tracking system, process model, cost, time

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Authors: Kanda Janyam, Piyaporn Vijit

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Background: As a consequence of sustained declines in fertility and mortality during the last three decades of the 20th century, Thailand faces a rapidly growing population of older persons. This demographic change directly affect Thailand workforce. Therefore, the study of health promotion behaviour of the older employees will benefit the employers as they can then develop the preparation for promoting well-being in older persons. Purpose: The current study aims to investigate health promotion behaviour and factors related to health promotion behaviour of older employees in factory. Methodology: The research instrument was questionnaire on health promotion behaviour and semi-structured interviews. The questionnaire was launched with 326 employees aged between 45-59 years in three factories in Songkhla Province, southern Thailand. The data collection started in December 2011. The data were analysed with mean, standard deviation, and correlation. Results: The results revealed that overall health promotion behaviour of the older employees in factory was at a high level. Moreover, when considered by aspect, it was found that their responsibility for health, nutrition, success in life, interpersonal relationship were at a high level while stress management, and exercise were at a moderate level. The results from correlation analysis indicated that the overall health promotion behaviour was positively related to knowledge of health promotion behaviour, attitude toward health promotion behaviour, health perception, the policy of health promotion, participation in health promotion activities, convenience in obtaining health promotion services, health resources, advice from people supporting health, and information received from the media. In addition, the results of the interviews with four key informants helped to confirm the factors related to health promotion behaviour of older employees in factory. Therefore, health promotion for elderly employees in factory is likely to be successful, if the support is given to the four health promotion factors that are divided into: leading factors consisting of attitude toward health promotion behaviour, and health perception, and supporting factors consisting of advice from other people, and information on health from various media. Practical implications: The results of the study identified the factors related to health promotion behaviour of older employees in factory. Such information will benefit employers as they can then develop specific strategies to increase their staffs’ well-being and, hence, presumably enhance the organization productivity.

Keywords: health promotion behavior, older, employee, factory

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Authors: Ehsan Sakhaei, Ali Taherabadi

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In this study, an aft sweep wing with specific characteristic feature was analysis with CFD method in Fluent software. In this analysis wings aerodynamic coefficient was calculated in different rake angle and wing lift curve slope to rake angle was achieved. Wing section was selected among NACA airfoils version 6. The sweep angle of wing is 15 degree, aspect ratio 8 and taper ratios 0.4. Designing and modeling this wing was done in CATIA software. This model was meshed in Gambit software and its three dimensional analysis was done in Fluent software. CFD methods used here were based on pressure base algorithm. SIMPLE technique was used for solving Navier-Stokes equation and Spalart-Allmaras model was utilized to simulate three dimensional wing in air. Roskam method is one of the common and most used methods for determining aerodynamics parameters in the field of airplane designing. In this study besides CFD analysis, an advanced aircraft analysis was used for calculating aerodynamic coefficient using Roskam method. The results of CFD were compared with measured data acquired from Roskam method and authenticity of relation was evaluated. The results and comparison showed that in linear region of lift curve there is a minor difference between aerodynamics parameter acquired from CFD to relation present by Roskam.

Keywords: aft sweep wing, CFD method, fluent, Roskam, Spalart-Allmaras model

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Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: Wei-Zhao, Yannian-Bao, Xing-Fan, Lei-Cao

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An isostatic pressing working cylinder automatic exhaust valve is designed. The finite element models of valve core and valve body under ultra-high pressure work environment are built to study the influence of interact of valve core and valve body to sealing performance. The contact stresses of metal sealing surface with different sizes are calculated and the automatic exhaust valve is optimized. The result of simulation and experiment shows that the sealing of optimized exhaust valve is more reliable and the service life is greatly improved. The optimized exhaust valve has been used in the warm isostatic pressing equipment.

Keywords: exhaust valve, sealing, ultra-high pressure, isostatic pressing

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Authors: Pratiksha Dubey, Praveen Singh, Shantanu Sen Gupta, Anand K. Bachhawat

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5-oxoproline (pyroglutamic acid) is a cyclic lactam of glutamic acid. In the cell, it can be produced by several different pathways and is metabolized into glutamate with the help of the 5-oxoprolinase enzyme (OPLAH or OXP1). The inhibition of 5-oxoprolinase enzyme in mammals was found to result in heart failure and is thought to be a consequence of oxidative stress [1]. To analyze the consequences of 5-oxoproline accumulation more clearly, we are generating models for 5-oxoproline accumulation in yeast. The 5-oxoproline accumulation model in yeast is being developed by two different strategies. The first one is by overexpression of the mouse  -glutamylcyclotransferase enzyme. It degrades -glu-met dipeptide into 5-oxoproline and methionine taken by the cell from the medium. The second strategy is by providing high concentration of 5-oxoproline externally to the yeast cells. The intracellular 5-oxoproline levels in both models are being evaluated. In addition, the metabolic and cellular consequences are being investigated.

Keywords: 5-oxoproline, pyroglutamic acid, yeast, genetics

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Authors: Mahzabin Afroz, Indubhushan Patnaikuni, Srikanth Venkatesan

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It is well-known that fly ash can be used in high volume as a partial replacement of cement to get beneficial effects on concrete. High volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete is currently emerging as a popular option to strengthen by fiber. Although studies have supported the use of fibers with fly ash, a unified model along with the incorporation into finite element software package to estimate the maximum flexural loads need to be developed. In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete beam under static loadings was conducted to investigate their failure modes in terms of ultimate load. First of all, the experimental investigation of mechanical properties of high strength HVFA concrete was done and validates with developed numerical model with the appropriate modeling of element size and mesh by ANSYS 16.2. To model the fiber within the concrete, three-dimensional random fiber distribution was simulated by spherical coordinate system. Three types of high strength HVFA concrete beams were analyzed reinforced with 0.5, 1 and 1.5% volume fractions of steel fibers with specific mechanical and physical properties. The result reveals that the use of nonlinear finite element analysis technique and three-dimensional random fiber orientation exhibited fairly good agreement with the experimental results of flexural strength, load deflection and crack propagation mechanism. By utilizing this improved model, it is possible to determine the flexural behavior of different types and proportions of steel fiber reinforced HVFA concrete beam under static load. So, this paper has the originality to predict the flexural properties of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete by numerical simulations.

Keywords: finite element analysis, high volume fly ash, steel fibers, spherical coordinate system

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Authors: Ganesh Meshram, Gloria Biswal

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In this study, we present the numerical investigation of surface wettability on triangular micropillar surfaces by using a two-dimensional (2D) pseudo-potential multiphase lattice Boltzmann method with a D2Q9 model for various interaction parameters of the range varies from -1.40 to -2.50. Initially, simulation of the equilibrium state of a water droplet on a flat surface is considered for various interaction parameters to examine the accuracy of the present numerical model. We then imposed the microscale pillars on the bottom wall of the surface with different heights of the pillars to form the hydrophobic and superhydrophobic surfaces which enable the higher contact angle. The wettability of surfaces is simulated with water droplets of radius 100 lattice units in the domain of 800x800 lattice units. The present study shows that increasing the interaction parameter of the pillared hydrophobic surfaces dramatically reduces the contact area between water droplets and solid walls due to the momentum redirection phenomenon. Contact angles for different values of interaction strength have been validated qualitatively with the analytical results.

Keywords: contact angle, lattice boltzmann method, d2q9 model, pseudo-potential multiphase method, hydrophobic surfaces, wenzel state, cassie-baxter state, wettability

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Authors: C. M. Mat Isa, H. Mohd Saman, S. R. Mohd Nasir, A. Jaapar

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International market expansion involves a strategic process of market entry decision through which a firm expands its operation from domestic to the international domain. Hence, entry timing choices require the needs to balance the early entry risks and the problems in losing opportunities as a result of late entry into a new market. Questionnaire surveys administered to 115 Malaysian construction firms operating in 51 countries worldwide have resulted in 39.1 percent response rate. Factor analysis was used to determine the most significant factors affecting entry timing choices of the firms to penetrate the international market. A logistic regression analysis used to examine the firms’ entry timing choices, indicates that the model has correctly classified 89.5 per cent of cases as late movers. The findings reveal that the most significant factor influencing the construction firms’ choices as late movers was the firm factor related to the firm’s international experience, resources, competencies and financing capacity. The study also offers valuable information to construction firms with intention to internationalize their businesses.

Keywords: factors, early movers, entry timing choices, late movers, logistic regression model, principal axis factorial analysis, Malaysian construction firms

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Authors: Elaheh Ezami, Behzad Mohammadian, Elham Aznab

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Health service design will need to change due to bringing in new digital health tools. This highlights the importance of innovation in adopting Health Information Technology (HIT). It can be argued that innovation in the health sector correlates with entrepreneurship. Various reasons exist for health entrepreneurs to advocate increased investment in HIT to compensate for shortcomings in the health sector and improve the quality of healthcare. Furthermore, every innovative program presents challenges and motivations for entrepreneurs that may distract or encourage the adoption of technology. Our study used a systematic literature review to identify relevant articles that defined the frustrations and promotions of using health information technology in organizations or enterprises. A meta-analysis of the articles was conducted to identify the factors driving or pulling entrepreneurs to use HIT.

Keywords: health information technology, health entrepreneurship, health enterprise, health entrepreneurs' innovation

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Authors: Sevket Ceyhun Cetin, Mehmet Oren

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According to existing educational research studies, students learn better with high teacher quality. Therefore, professional development has become a crucial way of increasing the quality of novices and veteran in-service teachers by providing support regarding content and pedagogy. To answer what makes PD effective, researchers have studied different PD models and revealed some critical elements that need to be considered, such as duration of a PD and the manner of delivery (e.g., lecture vs. engaging). Also, it has been pointed out that if PDs are prepared as one-size-fits-all, they most likely be ineffective in addressing teachers’ needs toward improving instructional quality. Instead, teachers’ voices need to be heard, and the foci of PDs should be determined based on their specific needs. Thus, this study was conducted to identify professional development needs of middle school mathematics teachers based on their self-evaluation of their performances in light of teaching standards. This study also aimed to explore whether the PD needs with respect to years of teaching experience (novice vs. veteran). These teachers had participated in a federally-funded research grant, which aimed to improve the competencies of 6-9 grade-level mathematics teachers in pedagogy and content areas. In the research project, the participants had consistently videoed their lessons throughout a school year and reflected on their performances, using Teacher Advanced Program (TAPTM) rubric, which was based on the best practices of teaching. Particularly, they scored their performances in the following areas and provided evidence as the justifications of their scores: Standards and Objectives, Presenting Instructional Content, Lesson Structure and Pacing, Activities and Materials, Academic Feedback, Grouping Students, and Questioning. The rating scale of the rubric is 1 through 5 (i.e., 1=Unsatisfactory [performance], 3=Proficient, and 5=Exemplary). For each area mentioned above, the numerical scores of 77 written reports (for 77 videoed lessons) of 24 teachers (nnovices=12 and nveteran=12) were averaged. Overall, the average score of each area was below 3 (ranging between 2.43 and 2.86); in other words, teachers judged their performances incompetent across the seven areas. In the second step of the data analysis, the lowest three areas in which novice and veteran teachers performed poorly were selected for further qualitative analysis. According to the preliminary results, the lowest three areas for the novice teachers were: Questioning, Grouping Students, and Academic Feedback. Grouping Students was also one of the lowest areas of the veteran teachers, but the other two areas for this group were: Lesson Structure & Pacing, and Standards & Objectives. Identifying in-service teachers’ needs based on their reflective practitioner experiences provides educators very crucial information that can be used to create more effective PD that improves teacher quality.

Keywords: mathematics teacher, professional development, self-reflection, video data

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Authors: Lizmol Mathew, Divya Thomas, Shiney Rajan

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Educational paradigm all over the globe is undergoing significant reform today. Because of this, so-called flipped classroom model is becoming increasingly popular in higher education. Flipped classroom has proved to be more effective than traditional lecture based model as flipped classroom model promotes active learning by encouraging students to work on in collaborative tasks and peer-led learning during the class-time. However, success of flipped classrooms relies on students’ ability and their attitudes towards collaboration and group work. This paper examines: 1) Students’ attitudes towards collaborative learning; 2) Main challenges to successful collaboration from students’ experience and 3) Students’ perception of criteria for successful team work. 4) Recommendations for enhancing collaborative learning. This study’s methodology involves quantitative analysis of surveys collected from students enrolled in undergraduate Architecture program at Qatar University. Analysis indicates that in general students enrolled in the program do not have positive perceptions or experiences associated with group work. Positive and negative factors that influence collaborative learning in higher education have been identified. Recommendations for improving collaborative work experience have been proposed.

Keywords: architecture, collaborative learning, female, group work, higher education, Middle East, Qatar, student experience

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Authors: Mirza Mohibulla Baig, Imil Hamda Imran, Tri Bagus Susilo, Sami El Ferik

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The paper deals with system identification and control a nonlinear model of semi-autonomous underwater vehicle (UUV). The input-output data is first generated using the experimental values of the model parameters and then this data is used to compute the estimated parameter values. In this study, we use the semi-autonomous UUV LAURS model, which is developed by the Sensors and Actuators Laboratory in University of Sao Paolo. We applied three methods to identify the parameters: integral method, which is a classical least square method, recursive least square, and weighted recursive least square. In this paper, we also apply three different inputs (step input, sine wave input and random input) to each identification method. After the identification stage, we investigate the control performance of yaw motion of nonlinear semi-autonomous Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) using feedback linearization-based controller. In addition, we compare the performance of the control with an integral and a non-integral part along with state feedback. Finally, disturbance rejection and resilience of the controller is tested. The results demonstrate the ability of the system to recover from such fault.

Keywords: system identification, underwater vehicle, integral method, recursive least square, weighted recursive least square, feedback linearization, integral error

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Authors: Resul Öztürk

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Experiential marketing is one of the marketing approaches that offers an exceptional framework to integrate elements of experience and entertainment in a product or service. Experiential marketing is defined as a memorable experience that goes deeply into the customer’s mind. Besides that, customer satisfaction is defined as an emotional response to the experiences provided by and associated with particular products or services purchased. Thus, experiential marketing activities can affect the level of customer satisfaction and loyalty. In this context, the research aims to explore the relationship among experiential marketing, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty among the cosmetic products customers in Konya. The partial least squares (PLS) method is used to analyse the survey data. The present study’s findings revealed have that experiential marketing has been a significant predictor of customer satisfaction and customer loyalty, and also experiential marketing has a significantly positive effect on customer satisfaction and customer loyalty.

Keywords: experiential marketing, customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, social sciences

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Authors: Sujoy Das, M. M. Ghosh

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The thermal conductivity of a fluid can be significantly enhanced by dispersing nano-sized particles in it, and the resultant fluid is termed as "nanofluid". A theoretical model for estimating the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid has been proposed here. It is based on the mechanism that evenly dispersed nanoparticles within a nanofluid undergo Brownian motion in course of which the nanoparticles repeatedly collide with the heat source. During each collision a rapid heat transfer occurs owing to the solid-solid contact. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of the collision of nanoparticles with the heat source has shown that there is a pulse-like pick up of heat by the nanoparticles within 20-100 ps, the extent of which depends not only on thermal conductivity of the nanoparticles, but also on the elastic and other physical properties of the nanoparticle. After the collision the nanoparticles undergo Brownian motion in the base fluid and release the excess heat to the surrounding base fluid within 2-10 ms. The Brownian motion and associated temperature variation of the nanoparticles have been modeled by stochastic analysis. Repeated occurrence of these events by the suspended nanoparticles significantly contributes to the characteristic thermal conductivity of the nanofluids, which has been estimated by the present model for a ethylene glycol based nanofluid containing Cu-nanoparticles of size ranging from 8 to 20 nm, with Gaussian size distribution. The prediction of the present model has shown a reasonable agreement with the experimental data available in literature.

Keywords: brownian dynamics, molecular dynamics, nanofluid, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Jeon Chi-Ho, Lee Jae-Bin, Shim Chang-Su

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National bridge inventory in Korea shows that the number of old prestressed concrete (PSC) bridgeover 30 years of service life is rapidly increasing. Recently tendon corrosion is one of the most critical issues in the maintenance of PSC bridges. In this paper, mechanical properties of corroded strands, which were removed from old bridges, were evaluated using tensile test. In the result, the equations to express the mechanical behavior of corroded strand were derived and compared to existing equation. For the decision of tendon replacement, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of corrosion level on strength and ductility of the structure. Considerations on analysis of PSC girders were introduced, and decision making on tendon replacement was also proposed.

Keywords: prestressed concrete bridge, tendon, corrosion, strength, ductility

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Authors: Emanuela Zilli, Suana Tikvina, Davide Bonaldo, Monica Varotto, Scilla Rizzardi, Barbara Ruzzante, Raffaele Napolitano, Stefano Bevilacqua, Antonella Ruffatto

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A healthy workplace increases productivity, creativity and decreases absenteeism and turnover. It also contributes to creating a more secure work environment with fewer risks of violence. In the past 3 years, the healthcare system has suffered the psychological, economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the healthcare staff reductions determine high levels of work-related stress that are often unsustainable. The Hospital of Cittadella (in the province of Padua) has 400 beds and serves a territory of 300,000 inhabitants. The hospital itself counts 1.250 healthcare employees (healthcare professionals). This year, the Medical Board of Directors has requested additional staff; however, the economic situation of Italy can not sustain additional hires. At the same time, we have initiated projects that aim to increase well-being, decrease stress and encourage activities that promote self-care. One of the projects that the hospital has organized is the psychomotor practice. It is held by therapists and trainers who operate according to the traditional method. According to the literature, the psychomotor practice is specifically intended for the staff operating in the Intensive Care Unit, Emergency Department and Pneumology Ward. The project consisted of one session of 45 minutes a week for 3 months. This method brings focus to controlled breathing, posture, muscle work and movement that help manage stress and fatigue, creating a more mindful and sustainable lifestyle. In addition, a Qigong course was held every two weeks for 5 months. It is an ancient Chinese practice designed to optimize the energy within the body, reducing stress levels and increasing general well-being. Finally, Tibetan singing crystal bowls sessions, held by a music therapist, consisted of monthly guided meditation sessions using the sounds of the crystal bowls. Sound therapy uses the vibrations created from the crystal bowls to balance the vibrations within the body to promote relaxation. In conclusion, well-being and organizational performance are closely related to each other. It is crucial for any organization to encourage and maintain better physical and mental health of the healthcare staff as it directly affects productivity and, consequently, user satisfaction of the services provided.

Keywords: health promotion, healthcare workers management, Weel being and organizational performance, Psychomotor practice

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Authors: Gashaw Gismu Chakilu

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Climate and land cover change are very important issues in terms of global context and their responses to environmental and socio-economic drivers. The dynamic of these two factors is currently affecting the environment in unbalanced way including watershed hydrology. In this paper individual and combined impacts of climate change and land use land cover change on hydrological processes were evaluated through applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. The regional climate; temperature and rainfall data of the past 40 years in the study area were prepared and changes were detected by using trend analysis applying Mann-Kendall trend test. The land use land cover data were obtained from land sat image and processed by ERDAS IMAGIN 2010 software. Three land use land cover data; 1973, 1986, and 2013 were prepared and these data were used for base line, model calibration and change study respectively. The effects of these changes on high flow and low flow of the catchment have also been evaluated separately. The high flow of the catchment for these two decades was analyzed by using Annual Maximum (AM) model and the low flow was evaluated by seven day sustained low flow model. Both temperature and rainfall showed increasing trend; and then the extent of changes were evaluated in terms of monthly bases by using two decadal time periods; 1973-1982 was taken as baseline and 2004-2013 was used as change study. The efficiency of the model was determined by Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and Relative Volume error (RVe) and their values were 0.65 and 0.032 for calibration and 0.62 and 0.0051 for validation respectively. The impact of climate change was higher than that of land use land cover change on stream flow of the catchment; the flow has been increasing by 16.86% and 7.25% due to climate and LULC change respectively, and the combined change effect accounted 22.13% flow increment. The overall results of the study indicated that Climate change is more responsible for high flow than low flow; and reversely the land use land cover change showed more significant effect on low flow than high flow of the catchment. From the result we conclude that the hydrology of the catchment has been altered because of changes of climate and land cover of the study area.

Keywords: climate, LULC, SWAT, Ethiopia

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Faiz Khan Mohammad, Saumya Ray Chaudhari, Raghunathan Rengaswamy, Swagatika Sahoo

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Cholera caused by pathogenic gut bacteria Vibrio Cholerae (VC), is a major health problem in developing countries. Different strains of VC exhibit variable responses subject to different extracellular medium (Nag et al, Infect Immun, 2018). In this study, we present a new approach to model the variable VC responses in mono- and co-cultures, subject to continuously changing growth medium, which is otherwise difficult via simple FBA model. Nine VC strain and seven E. coli (EC) models were assembled and considered. A continuously changing medium is modelled using a new iterative-based controlled medium technique (ITC). The medium is appropriately prefixed with the VC model secretome. As the flux through the bacteria biomass increases secretes certain by-products. These products shall add-on to the medium, either deviating the nutrient potential or block certain metabolic components of the model, effectively forming a controlled feed-back loop. Different VC models were setup as monoculture of VC in glucose enriched medium, and in co-culture with VC strains and EC. Constrained to glucose enriched medium, (i) VC_Classical model resulted in higher flux through acidic secretome suggesting a pH change of the medium, leading to lowering of its biomass. This is in consonance with the literature reports. (ii) When compared for neutral secretome, flux through acetoin exchange was higher in VC_El tor than the classical models, suggesting El tor requires an acidic partner to lower its biomass. (iii) Seven of nine VC models predicted 3-methyl-2-Oxovaleric acid, mysirtic acid, folic acid, and acetate significantly affect corresponding biomass reactions. (iv) V. parhemolyticus and vulnificus were found to be phenotypically similar to VC Classical strain, across the nine VC strains. The work addresses the advantage of the ITC over regular flux balance analysis for modelling varying growth medium. Future expansion to co-cultures, potentiates the identification of novel interacting partners as effective cholera therapeutics.

Keywords: cholera, vibrio cholera El. tor, vibrio cholera classical, acetate

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: Jose D. Herrera, Mario A. Rios

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This paper deals with the coordinated tuning of the Power System Stabilizer (PSS) controller and Power Oscillation Damping (POD) Controller of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) in a multi-machine power systems. The coordinated tuning is based on the critical eigenvalues of the power system and a model reduction technique where the Hankel Singular Value method is applied. Through the linearized system model and the parameter-constrained nonlinear optimization algorithm, it can compute the parameters of both controllers. Moreover, the parameters are optimized simultaneously obtaining the gains of both controllers. Then, the nonlinear simulation to observe the time response of the controller is performed.

Keywords: electromechanical oscillations, power system stabilizers, power oscillation damping, hankel singular values

Procedia PDF Downloads 575

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Andi Putra, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Precipitation forecast is important to avoid natural disaster incident which can cause losses in the involved area. This paper reviews three techniques logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest which are used in making precipitation forecast. These combination techniques through the vector auto-regression (VAR) model help in finding the advantages and strengths of each technique in the forecast process. The data-set contains variables of the rain’s domain. Adaptation of artificial intelligence techniques involved in rain domain enables the forecast process to be easier and systematic for precipitation forecast.

Keywords: logistic regression, decisions tree, random forest, VAR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Vandenbroucke Karel, Georges Annabel, Schuurman Dimitri

Abstract:

In the past years, bundling of transport flows, whether or not implemented in an intermodal process, has popped up as a promising concept in the logistics sector. Bundling of transport flows is a process where two or more shippers decide to synergize their shipped goods over a common transport lane. Promoted by the European Commission, several programs have been set up and have shown their benefits. Bundling promises both shippers and logistics service providers economic, societal and ecological benefits. By bundling transport flows and thus reducing truck (or other carrier) capacity, the problems of driver shortage, increased fuel prices, mileage charges and restricted hours of service on the road are solved. In theory, the advantages of bundled transport exceed the drawbacks, however, in practice adoption among shippers remains low. In fact, bundling is mentioned as a disruptive process in the rather traditional logistics sector. In this context, a Belgian company asked iMinds Living Labs to set up a Living Lab research project with the goal to investigate how the uptake of bundling transport flows can be accelerated and to check whether an online data sharing platform can overcome the adoption barriers. The Living Lab research was conducted in 2016 and combined quantitative and qualitative end-user and market research. Concretely, extensive desk research was conducted and combined with insights from expert interviews with four consultants active in the Belgian logistics sector and in-depth interviews with logistics professionals working for shippers (N=10) and LSP’s (N=3). In the article, we present findings which show that there are several factors slowing down the uptake of bundling transport flows. Shippers are hesitant to change how they currently work and they are hesitant to work together with other shippers. Moreover, several practical challenges impede shippers to work together. We also present some opportunities that can accelerate the adoption of bundling of transport flows. First, it seems that there is not enough support coming from governmental and commercial organizations. Secondly, there is the chicken and the egg problem: too few interested parties will lead to no or very few matching lanes. Shippers are therefore reluctant to partake in these projects because the benefits have not yet been proven. Thirdly, the incentive is not big enough for shippers. Road transport organized by the shipper individually is still seen as the easiest and cheapest solution. A solution for the abovementioned challenges might be found in the online data sharing platform of the Belgian company. The added value of this platform is showing shippers possible matching lanes, without the shippers having to invest time in negotiating and networking with other shippers and running the risk of not finding a match. The interviewed shippers and experts indicated that the online data sharing platform is a very promising concept which could accelerate the uptake of bundling of transport flows.

Keywords: adoption barriers, bundling of transport, shippers, transport optimization

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Authors: M. Adamski, J. Cwiklak

Abstract:

The contemporary battlefield creates a demand for more costly and highly advanced munitions. Training personnel responsible for operations, as well as an immediate execution of combat tasks, which engage real assets, is unrealistic and economically not feasible. Owing to a wide array of exploited simulators and various types of imitators, it is possible to reduce the costs. One of the effective elements of training, which can be applied in the training of all service branches, are imitators of aerial targets. This research serves as an introduction to the commencement of design analysis over a real aerial target imitator. Within the project, the basic aerodynamic calculations were made, which enabled to determine its geometry, design layout, performance, as well as the mass balance of individual components. The conducted calculations of the parameters of flight characteristics come closer to the real performance of such unmanned aerial vehicles.

Keywords: aerial target, aerodynamics, imitator, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Levent Basayigit, Sinan Demir, Yusuf Ucar, Burhan Kara

Abstract:

Many research projects require accurate delineation of the different land cover type of the agricultural area. Especially it is critically important for the definition of specific plants like cannabis. However, the complexity of vegetation stands structure, abundant vegetation species, and the smooth transition between different seconder section stages make vegetation classification difficult when using traditional approaches such as the maximum likelihood classifier. Most of the time, classification distinguishes only between trees/annual or grain. It has been difficult to accurately determine the cannabis mixed with other plants. In this paper, a mixed distribution models approach is applied to classify pure and mix cannabis parcels using Worldview-2 imagery in the Lakes region of Turkey. Five different land use types (i.e. sunflower, maize, bare soil, and cannabis) were identified in the image. A constrained Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis (GMDA) was used to unmix the image. In the study, 255 reflectance ratios derived from spectral signatures of seven bands (Blue-Green-Yellow-Red-Rededge-NIR1-NIR2) were randomly arranged as 80% for training and 20% for test data. Gaussian mixed distribution model approach is proved to be an effective and convenient way to combine very high spatial resolution imagery for distinguishing cannabis vegetation. Based on the overall accuracies of the classification, the Gaussian mixed distribution model was found to be very successful to achieve image classification tasks. This approach is sensitive to capture the illegal cannabis planting areas in the large plain. This approach can also be used for monitoring and determination with spectral reflections in illegal cannabis planting areas.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis, spectral mixture model, Worldview-2, land parcels

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Authors: P. M. Kundu, L. R. Singo, J. O. Odiyo

Abstract:

Luvuvhu River catchment in South Africa experiences floods resulting from heavy rainfall of intensities exceeding 15 mm per hour associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The generation of runoff is triggered by the rainfall intensity and soil moisture status. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to analyze the hydrologic response to land cover changes. Runoff was calculated as a product of the net precipitation and a curve number coefficient. It was then routed using the Muskingum-Cunge method using a diffusive wave transfer model that enabled the calculation of response functions between start and end point. Flood frequency analysis was determined using theoretical probability distributions. Spatial data on land cover was obtained from multi-temporal Landsat images while data on rainfall, soil type, runoff and stream discharges was obtained by direct measurements in the field and from the Department of Water. A digital elevation model was generated from contour maps available at http://www.ngi.gov.za. The results showed that land cover changes had impacted negatively to the hydrology of the catchment. Peak discharges in the whole catchment were noted to have increased by at least 17% over the period while flood volumes were noted to have increased by at least 11% over the same period. The flood time to peak indicated a decreasing trend, in the range of 0.5 to 1 hour within the years. The synergism between remotely sensed digital data and GIS for land surface analysis and modeling was realized, and it was therefore concluded that hydrologic modeling has potential for determining the influence of changes in land cover on the hydrologic response of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment, digital elevation model, hydrological model, routing, runoff

Procedia PDF Downloads 560