Search results for: outcome estimation

Authors: Siti Sabariah Buhari, Ruzita Abdul Talib, Poh Bee Koon

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This study aims to develop and evaluate an intervention to improve eating habits, active lifestyle and weight status of overweight and obese children in Negeri Sembilan. The H.E.B.A.T! Program involved children, parents, and school and focused on behaviour and environment modification to achieve its goal. The intervention consists of H.E.B.A.T! Camp, parent’s workshop and school-based activities. A total of 21 children from intervention school and 22 children from control school who had BMI for age Z-score ≥ +1SD participated in the study. Mean age of subjects was 10.8 ± 0.3 years old. Four phases were included in the development of the intervention. Evaluation of intervention was conducted through process, impact and outcome evaluation. Process evaluation found that intervention program was implemented successfully with minimal modification and without having any technical problems. Impact and outcome evaluation was assessed based on dietary intake, average step counts, BMI for age z-score, body fat percentage and waist circumference at pre-intervention (T0), post-intervention 1 (T1) and post-intervention 2 (T2). There was significant reduction in energy (14.8%) and fat (21.9%) intakes (at p < 0.05) at post-intervention 1 (T1) in intervention group. By controlling for sex as covariate, there was significant intervention effect for average step counts, BMI for age z-score and waist circumference (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the intervention made an impact on positive behavioural intentions and improves weight status of the children. It is expected that the HEBAT! Program could be adopted and implemented by the government and private sector as well as policy-makers in formulating childhood obesity intervention.

Keywords: childhood obesity, diet, obesity intervention, physical activity

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Authors: Obiakor Casmir Uchenna, Ikegbunam Peter Chierike, Ezeja Perpetual Chisom

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Irregularities have been a major feature of the Nigerian political activities since 1999. The rate at which such impunities thrive in the country has made elections grossly unacceptable among the people because the outcomes have never reflected the wish of the masses. Conscious of this, citizens have subscribed to the use of social media in exposing the ugly faces of the country’s elections which have always been against the less privileged. This study is an exploration of the relationship between exposure to social media shared video-clips and the respondents’ perception of the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria. The general objective of the study is to find out what the respondents make of the election as a result of the video-clips shared on different social media platforms showing electoral irregularities. The study adopted survey research method in studying 378 university undergraduates from NAU, COOU and Paul University selected through purposive sampling technique. The study was premised on the theoretical provision of violation of expectation theory. Findings revealed that the respondents are well exposed to different video-clips showing irregularities on the election. It was also found that the respondents have negative perception of the election. It was concluded that electoral umpire, the government in power and the security apparatus violated the respondents’ expectation from the election based on the pre-election promises made to the citizens. It was recommended among others, that Nigeria must strengthen the various institutions responsible for the conduct of elections if violence will not be made the best option for the poor masses.

Keywords: social media shared video-clips, exposure, irregularities, elections, audience perception, outcome

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Authors: Jacky Liu, Dulani Jayasuriya, Ryan Elmore

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Match fixing and anomalous sports events have increasingly threatened the integrity of professional sports, prompting concerns about existing detection methods. This study addresses prior research limitations in match fixing detection, improving the identification of potential fraudulent matches by incorporating advanced anomaly detection techniques. We develop a novel method to identify anomalous matches and player performances by examining series of matches, such as playoffs. Additionally, we investigate bettors' potential profits when avoiding anomaly matches and explore factors behind unusual player performances. Our literature review covers match fixing detection, match outcome forecasting models, and anomaly detection methods, underscoring current limitations and proposing a new sports anomaly detection method. Our findings reveal anomalous series in the 2022 NBA playoffs, with the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks series having the lowest natural occurrence probability. We identify abnormal player performances and bettors' profits significantly decrease when post-season matches are included. This study contributes by developing a new approach to detect anomalous matches and player performances, and assisting investigators in identifying responsible parties. While we cannot conclusively establish reasons behind unusual player performances, our findings suggest factors such as team financial difficulties, executive mismanagement, and individual player contract issues.

Keywords: anomaly match detection, match fixing, match outcome forecasting, problematic players identification

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Authors: Ece Cigdem Mutlu, Burak Alakent

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Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level depends on the stability of process dispersion and location parameters and detection of perturbations in these parameters as promptly as possible. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used technique in statistical process monitoring to monitor the quality of products and control process mean and variability. In the application of Xbar control charts, sample standard deviation and sample mean are known to be the most efficient conventional estimators in determining process dispersion and location parameters, respectively, based on the assumption of independent and normally distributed datasets. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the real-world data would be normally distributed. In the cases of estimated process parameters from Phase I data clouded with outliers, efficiency of traditional estimators is significantly reduced, and performance of Xbar charts are undesirably low, e.g. occasional outliers in the rational subgroups in Phase I data set may considerably affect the sample mean and standard deviation, resulting a serious delay in detection of inferior products in Phase II. For more efficient application of control charts, it is required to use robust estimators against contaminations, which may exist in Phase I. In the current study, we present a simple approach to construct robust Xbar control charts using average distance to the median, Qn-estimator of scale, M-estimator of scale with logistic psi-function in the estimation of process dispersion parameter, and Harrell-Davis qth quantile estimator, Hodge-Lehmann estimator and M-estimator of location with Huber psi-function and logistic psi-function in the estimation of process location parameter. Phase I efficiency of proposed estimators and Phase II performance of Xbar charts constructed from these estimators are compared with the conventional mean and standard deviation statistics both under normality and against diffuse-localized and symmetric-asymmetric contaminations using 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on MATLAB. Consequently, it is found that robust estimators yield parameter estimates with higher efficiency against all types of contaminations, and Xbar charts constructed using robust estimators have higher power in detecting disturbances, compared to conventional methods. Additionally, utilizing individuals charts to screen outlier subgroups and employing different combination of dispersion and location estimators on subgroups and individual observations are found to improve the performance of Xbar charts.

Keywords: average run length, M-estimators, quality control, robust estimators

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Authors: Haoming Ma, Guo Yu, Peiru Zhou

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Background: Previous studies show that dysglycemia, mostly hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia and glycemic variability(GV), are associated with excess mortality in critically ill patients, especially those without diabetes. Glycemic variability is an increasingly important measure of glucose control in the intensive care unit (ICU) due to this association. However, there is limited data pertaining to the relationship between different clinical factors and glycemic variability and clinical outcomes categorized by their DM status. This retrospective study of 958 intensive care unit(ICU) patients was conducted to investigate the relationship between GV and outcome in critically ill patients and further to determine the significant factors that contribute to the glycemic variability. Aim: We hypothesize that the factors contributing to mortality and the glycemic variability are different from critically ill patients with or without diabetes. And the primary aim of this study was to determine which dysglycemia (hyperglycemia\hypoglycemia\glycemic variability) is independently associated with an increase in mortality among critically ill patients in different groups (DM/Non-DM). Secondary objectives were to further investigate any factors affecting the glycemic variability in two groups. Method: A total of 958 diabetic and non-diabetic patients with severe diseases in the ICU were selected for this retrospective analysis. The glycemic variability was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of blood glucose. The main outcome was death during hospitalization. The secondary outcome was GV. The logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with mortality. The relationships between GV and other variables were investigated using linear regression analysis. Results: Information on age, APACHE II score, GV, gender, in-ICU treatment and nutrition was available for 958 subjects. Predictors remaining in the final logistic regression model for mortality were significantly different in DM/Non-DM groups. Glycemic variability was associated with an increase in mortality in both DM(odds ratio 1.05; 95%CI:1.03-1.08,p＜0.001) or Non-DM group(odds ratio 1.07; 95%CI:1.03-1.11,p=0.002). For critically ill patients without diabetes, factors associated with glycemic variability included APACHE II score(regression coefficient, 95%CI:0.29,0.22-0.36,p＜0.001), Mean BG(0.73,0.46-1.01,p＜0.001), total parenteral nutrition(2.87,1.57-4.17,p＜0.001), serum albumin(-0.18,-0.271 to -0.082,p＜0.001), insulin treatment(2.18,0.81-3.55,p=0.002) and duration of ventilation(0.006,0.002-1.010,p=0.003).However, for diabetes patients, APACHE II score(0.203,0.096-0.310,p＜0.001), mean BG(0.503,0.138-0.869,p=0.007) and duration of diabetes(0.167,0.033-0.301,p=0.015) remained as independent risk factors of GV. Conclusion: We found that the relation between dysglycemia and mortality is different in the diabetes and non-diabetes groups. And we confirm that GV was associated with excess mortality in DM or Non-DM patients. Furthermore, APACHE II score, Mean BG, total parenteral nutrition, serum albumin, insulin treatment and duration of ventilation were significantly associated with an increase in GV in Non-DM patients. While APACHE II score, mean BG and duration of diabetes (years) remained as independent risk factors of increased GV in DM patients. These findings provide important context for further prospective trials investigating the effect of different clinical factors in critically ill patients with or without diabetes.

Keywords: diabetes, glycemic variability, predictors, severe disease

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Authors: Kaushal Kishore

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Immense amount of imported fuels are used in Fiji for electricity generation, transportation and for carrying out miscellaneous household work. To alleviate its dependency on fossil fuel, paramount importance has been given to instigate the utilization of renewable energy sources for power generation and to reduce the environmental dilapidation. Amongst the many renewable energy sources, wind has been considered as one of the best identified renewable sources that are comprehensively available in Fiji. In this study the wind resource assessment for three locations in Rakiraki, Fiji has been carried out. The wind resource estimation at Rokavukavu, Navolau and at Tuvavatu has been analyzed. The average wind speed at 55 m above ground level (a.g.l) at Rokavukavu, Navolau, and Tuvavatu sites are 5.91 m/s, 8.94 m/s and 8.13 m/s with the turbulence intensity of 14.9%, 17.1%, and 11.7% respectively. The moment fitting method has been used to estimate the Weibull parameter and the power density at each sites. A high resolution wind resource map for the three locations has been developed by using Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP). The results obtained from WAsP exhibited good wind potential at Navolau and Tuvavatu sites. A wind farm has been proposed at Navolau and Tuvavatu site that comprises six Vergnet 275 kW wind turbines at each site. The annual energy production (AEP) for each wind farm is estimated and an economic analysis is performed. The economic analysis for the proposed wind farms at Navolau and Tuvavatu sites showed a payback period of 5 and 6 years respectively.

Keywords: annual energy production, Rakiraki Fiji, turbulence intensity, Weibull parameter, wind speed, Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program

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Authors: Hesam Gholami

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Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

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Authors: Abdullah Al-Alaian, Ahmad Al-Enzi, Hasan Al-Herz, Ahmad Bakri, Shant Tatorian, Amr Nounou

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Kuwait is a country that has an imbalanced economy since most of its national outcome comes from the oil trade. It is so risky for a country to be dependent on a single source for income, and this increases the need to diversify its economy. In addition, according to the Public Authority for Industry, the contribution of the industrial sector to the current Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Kuwait is low which is about 4.33%. Therefore, the development of the industrial sector can be one of the means to diversify the economy and increase the industry's contribution to the national outcome. This is in accordance with Kuwait’s vision of 2035 which aims at increasing the contribution of the industrial sector to the GDP to 12%. In order to do so, this study aims at proposing a strategic plan that will accomplish certain objectives when implemented. It is based on analyzing the industrial sectors in Kuwait taking into consideration studying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats facing them. At the same time, it tends to gain from the experience of leading models and neighboring countries regarding the development of the industrial sector. In this study, the SWOT analysis technique will be conducted on all industrial sectors based on evaluation criteria in which it is determined whether any of them has a potential for improvement or not. In other words, it is determined whether the sectors are able to compete locally, regionally, or globally. Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, certain sectors will be chosen, assessed based on an assessment scheme, and their potentials for improvement will be aligned with the overall objectives. To ensure the achievement of the study’s objectives, an action plan will be proposed regarding recommendations for the related authorities, and for entrepreneurs. In addition, monitoring tools are going to be provided for the purpose of periodically checking the progress made in the implementation of the plan.

Keywords: industrial sector, SWOT analysis, productivity, competitiveness, GDP, Kuwait, economy

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Authors: Wissam Aljundi, Loay Daas, Yaser Abu Dail, Barbara Käsmann-Kellner, Berthold Seitz, Alaa Din Abdin

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Purpose: To investigate the effectiveness of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory eye drops (NSAIDs) combined with oral acetazolamide for postoperative macular edema (PME) after uncomplicated phacoemulsification (PE) and to identify predictors of non-response. Methods: We analyzed data of uncomplicated PE and identified eyes with PME. First-line therapy included topical NSAIDs combined with oral acetazolamide. In case of non-response, triamcinolone was administered subtenonally. Outcome measures included best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and central macular thickness (CMT). Results: 94 eyes out of 9750 uncomplicated PE developed PME, of which 60 eyes were included. Follow-ups occurred 6.4±1.8, 12.5±3.7, and 18.6±6.0 weeks after diagnosis. BCVA and CMT improved significantly in all follow-ups. 40 eyes showed response to first-line therapy at first follow-up (G1). The remaining 20 eyes showed no response and required subtenon triamcinolone (G2), of which 11 eyes showed complete regression at the second follow-up and 4 eyes at the third follow-up. 5 eyes showed no response and required intravitreal injection. Multivariate linear regression model showed that diabetes mellitus (DM) and increased cumulative dissipated energy (CDE) are predictors of non-response. Conclusion: Topical NSAIDs with acetazolamide resulted in complete regression of PME in 67% of all cases. DM and increased CDE might be considered as predictors of nonresponse to this treatment.

Keywords: postoperative macular edema, intravitreal injection, cumulative energy, irvine gass syndrome, pseudophakie

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Authors: Andriati Nadhilah Widyarini, Ezra Margareth

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Introduction: Rhegmatogenous retinal detachment is a condition where there’s a break in the retina, which allows the vitreous to directly enter the subretinal space. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) may develop due to this condition and can result in a new break, which could cause traction on the previously detached retina. Various methods of therapy can be done to treat this complication. Case: This case series involved 2 eyes of 2 patients who had total retinal detachment with advanced PVR. Pars plana vitrectomy was performed, and a 360-degree retinectomy procedure with perfluorocarbon liquid usage was done. This was followed by endo laser retinopexy to surround the border of retinectomy. 5000 cs silicone oil was used in 1 eye, whereas 12% of perfluoropropane gas was used in the other eye as a tamponade. These procedures were performed with meticulous attention to prevent any fluid from entering the subretinal space. Postoperative examination showed attachment of the retina and improvement of the patient’s visual acuity. Both eyes’ intraocular pressure was in the normal range. One eye developed retinal displacement, but no other complications occurred. Discussion: Rhegmatogenous retinal detachment with advanced PVR is a complex situation for vitreoretinal surgeons. PVR is characterized by the growth and migration of preretinal or subretinal membranes. PVR is the most common cause of retinal reattachment failure. A 360-degree retinectomy is an alternative surgical method to overcome this condition. Objectives of this procedure are releasing retinal traction caused by PVR, reducing the recurrence rate of PVR, and reattaching the retina to the pigment epithelial surface. Conclusion: 360-degree retinectomy provides satisfactory retinal reattachment and visual outcome improvement in rhegmatogenous retinal detachment with advanced PVR.

Keywords: RRD, retinectomy, pars plana, advanced PVR

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Authors: Mya Achike

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Background and Significance: Perinatal mental illness covers a wide range of conditions and has a huge influence on maternal-child health. Issues and challenges with perinatal mental health have been associated with poor pregnancy, birth, and postpartum outcomes. It is estimated that one out of five new and expectant mothers experience some degree of perinatal mental illness, which makes this a hugely significant health outcome. Certain factors increase the maternal risk for mental illness. Challenges related to poverty, migration, extreme stress, exposure to violence, emergency and conflict situations, natural disasters, and pandemics can exacerbate mental health disorders. It is widely expected that perinatal mental health is being negatively affected during the present COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A review of studies that reported a measurement tool to assess perinatal mental health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic was conducted following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. PubMed, CINAHL, and Google Scholar were used to search for peer-reviewed studies published after late 2019, in accordance with the emergence of the virus. The search resulted in the inclusion of ten studies. Approach to measure health outcome: The main approach to measure perinatal mental illness is the use of self-administered, validated questionnaires, usually in the clinical setting. Summary: Widespread use of these tools has afforded the clinical and research communities the ability to identify and support women who may be suffering from mental illness disorders during a pandemic. More research is needed to validate tools in other vulnerable, perinatal populations.

Keywords: mental health during covid, perinatal mental health, perinatal mental health measurement tools, perinatal mental health tools

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Authors: Nicolas Galazis, Nikolina Docheva, Constantinos Simillis, Kypros Nicolaides

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Background: Obese women are at increased risk for many pregnancy complications, and bariatric surgery (BS) before pregnancy has shown to improve some of these. Objectives: To review the current literature and quantitatively assess the obstetric and neonatal outcomes in pregnant women who have undergone BS. Search Strategy: MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases were searched using relevant keywords to identify studies that reported on pregnancy outcomes after BS. Selection Criteria: Pregnancy outcome in firstly, women after BS compared to obese or BMI-matched women with no BS and secondly, women after BS compared to the same or different women before BS. Only observational studies were included. Data Collection and Analysis: Two investigators independently collected data on study characteristics and outcome measures of interest. These were analysed using the random effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed and sensitivity analysis was performed to account for publication bias. Main Results: The entry criteria were fulfilled by 17 non-randomised cohort or case-control studies, including seven with high methodological quality scores. In the BS group, compared to controls, there was a lower incidence of preeclampsia (OR, 0.45, 95% CI, 0.25-0.80; p=0.007), GDM (OR, 0.47, 95% CI, 0.40-0.56; P<0.001) and large neonates (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.34-0.62; p<0.001) and a higher incidence of small neonates (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.52-2.44; p<0.001), preterm birth (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.58; p=0.006), admission for neonatal intensive care (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.02-1.72; p=0.03) and maternal anaemia (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.56-7.44, p=0.002). Conclusions: BS as a whole improves some pregnancy outcomes. Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding does not appear to increase the rate of small neonates that was seen with other BS procedures. Obese women of childbearing age undergoing BS need to be aware of these outcomes.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, pregnancy, preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, birth weight

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: R. Sharma, S. Kumar, C. Sharma

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A number of toxic chlorophenolic compounds are formed during pulp bleaching. The nature and concentration of these chlorophenolic compounds largely depends upon the amount and nature of bleaching chemicals used. These compounds are highly recalcitrant and difficult to remove but are partially removed by the biochemical treatment processes adopted by the paper industry. Identification and estimation of these chlorophenolic compounds has been carried out in the primary and secondary clarified effluents from the paper mill by GCMS. Twenty-six chorophenolic compounds have been identified and estimated in paper mill waste waters. Electrochemical treatment is an efficient method for oxidation of pollutants and has successfully been used to treat textile and oil waste water. Electrochemical treatment using less expensive anode material, stainless steel electrodes has been tried to study their removal. The electrochemical assembly comprised a DC power supply, a magnetic stirrer and stainless steel (316 L) electrode. The optimization of operating conditions has been carried out and treatment has been performed under optimized treatment conditions. Results indicate that 68.7% and 83.8% of cholorphenolic compounds are removed during 2 h of electrochemical treatment from primary and secondary clarified effluent respectively. Further, there is a reduction of 65.1, 60 and 92.6% of COD, AOX and color, respectively for primary clarified and 83.8%, 75.9% and 96.8% of COD, AOX and color, respectively for secondary clarified effluent. EC treatment has also been found to increase significantly the biodegradability index of wastewater because of conversion of non- biodegradable fraction into biodegradable fraction. Thus, electrochemical treatment is an efficient method for the degradation of cholorophenolic compounds, removal of color, AOX and other recalcitrant organic matter present in paper mill waste water.

Keywords: chlorophenolics, effluent, electrochemical treatment, wastewater

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Authors: R. Santos Alimi

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Using time-series techniques, this study empirically tested the validity of existing theory which stipulates there is a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth; such that government spending is growth-enhancing at low levels but growth-retarding at high levels, with the optimal size occurring somewhere in between. This study employed three estimation equations. First, for the size of government, two measures are considered as follows: (i) share of total expenditures to gross domestic product, (ii) share of recurrent expenditures to gross domestic product. Second, the study adopted real GDP (without government expenditure component), as a variant measure of economic growth other than the real total GDP, in estimating the optimal level of government expenditure. The study is based on annual Nigeria country-level data for the period 1970 to 2012. Estimation results show that the inverted U-shaped curve exists for the two measures of government size and the estimated optimum shares are 19.81% and 10.98%, respectively. Finally, with the adoption of real GDP (without government expenditure component), the optimum government size was found to be 12.58% of GDP. Our analysis shows that the actual share of government spending on average (2000 - 2012) is about 13.4%.This study adds to the literature confirming that the optimal government size exists not only for developed economies but also for developing economy like Nigeria. Thus, a public intervention threshold level that fosters economic growth is a reality; beyond this point economic growth should be left in the hands of the private sector. This finding has a significant implication for the appraisal of government spending and budgetary policy design.

Keywords: public expenditure, economic growth, optimum level, fully modified OLS

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Authors: Solomon Sisay, Belete Mengistu, Woldargay Erku, Desalegne Woldeyohannes

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Background: Tuberculosis is still the leading cause of illness in the world which accounted for 2.5% of the global burden of disease, and 25% of all avoidable deaths in developing countries. Objectives: The aim of study was to assess impact of DOTS strategy on tuberculosis case finding and treatment outcome in Gambella Regional State, Ethiopia from 2003 up to 2012 and from 2002 up to 2011, respectively. Methods: Health facility-based retrospective study was conducted. Data were collected and reported in quarterly basis using WHO reporting format for TB case finding and treatment outcome from all DOTS implementing health facilities in all zones of the region to Federal Ministry of Health. Results: A total of 10024 all form of TB cases had been registered between the periods from 2003 up to 2012. Of them, 4100 (40.9%) were smear-positive pulmonary TB, 3164 (31.6%) were smear-negative pulmonary TB and 2760 (27.5%) had extra-pulmonary TB. Case detection rate of smear-positive pulmonary TB had increased from 31.7% to 46.5% from the total TB cases and treatment success rate increased from 13% to 92% with average mean value of being 40.9% (SD= 0.1) and 55.7% (SD=0.28), respectively for the specified year periods. Moreover, the average values of treatment defaulter and treatment failure rates were 4.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Conclusion: It is possible to achieve the recommended WHO target which is 70% of CDR for smear-positive pulmonary TB, and 85% of TSR as it was already been fulfilled the targets for treatments more than 85% from 2009 up to 2011 in the region. However, it requires strong efforts to enhance case detection rate of 40.9% for smear-positive pulmonary TB through implementing alternative case finding strategies.

Keywords: Gambella Region, case detection rate, directly observed treatment short-course, treatment success rate, tuberculosis

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Authors: Alexander N. Pisarchik, Parth Chholak

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Intrinsic brain noise was estimated via magneto-encephalograms (MEG) recorded during perception of flickering visual stimuli with frequencies of 6.67 and 8.57 Hz. First, we measured the mean phase difference between the flicker signal and steady-state event-related field (SSERF) in the occipital area where the brain response at the flicker frequencies and their harmonics appeared in the power spectrum. Then, we calculated the probability distribution of the phase fluctuations in the regions of frequency locking and computed its kurtosis. Since kurtosis is a measure of the distribution’s sharpness, we suppose that inverse kurtosis is related to intrinsic brain noise. In our experiments, the kurtosis value varied among subjects from K = 3 to K = 5 for 6.67 Hz and from 2.6 to 4 for 8.57 Hz. The majority of subjects demonstrated leptokurtic kurtosis (K < 3), i.e., the distribution tails approached zero more slowly than Gaussian. In addition, we found a strong correlation between kurtosis and brain complexity measured as the correlation dimension, so that the MEGs of subjects with higher kurtosis exhibited lower complexity. The obtained results are discussed in the framework of nonlinear dynamics and complex network theories. Specifically, in a network of coupled oscillators, phase synchronization is mainly determined by two antagonistic factors, noise, and the coupling strength. While noise worsens phase synchronization, the coupling improves it. If we assume that each neuron and each synapse contribute to brain noise, the larger neuronal network should have stronger noise, and therefore phase synchronization should be worse, that results in smaller kurtosis. The described method for brain noise estimation can be useful for diagnostics of some brain pathologies associated with abnormal brain noise.

Keywords: brain, flickering, magnetoencephalography, MEG, visual perception, perception time

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Sayantika Biswas, Dipanshu Sur, Amitoj Athwal, Ratnabali Chakravorty

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Title: Impact of serum estrogen and progesterone levels in the outcome pregnancy rate in frozen embryo transfer cycles. A prospective cohort study Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effect of serum estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P4) levels at different time points on pregnancy outcomes in frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles. Materials & Method: A prospective cohort study was performed in patients undergoing frozen embryo transfer. Patients under age 37 years of age with at least one good blastocyst or three good day 3 embryos were included in the study. For endometrial preparation, 14 days of oral estradiol use (2X2 mg for 5 days. 3X2 mg for 4 days, and 4X2 mg for 5 days) was followed by vaginal progesterone twice a day and 50 mg intramuscular progesterone twice a day. Embryo transfer was scheduled 72-76 hrs or 116-120hrs after the initiation of progesterone. Serum E2 and P4 levels were examined at 4 times a) at the start of the menstrual cycle prior to the hormone supplementation. b) on the day of P4 start. c) on the day of ET. d) on the third day after ET. Result: A total 41 women were included in this study (mean age 31.8; SD 2.8). Clinical pregnancy rate was 65.55%. Serum E2 levels on at the start of the menstrual cycle prior to the hormone supplementation and on the day of P4 start were high in patients who achieved pregnancy compared to who did not (P=0.005 and P=0.019 respectively). P4 levels on on the day of ET were also high in patients with clinical pregnancy. On the day of P4 start, a serum E2 threshold of 186.4 pg/ml had a sensitivity of 82%, and P4 had a sensitivity of 71% for the prediction of clinical pregnancy at the threshold value 16.00 ng/ml. Conclusion: In women undergoing FET with hormone replacement, serum E2 level >186.4 pg/ml on the day of the start of progesterone and serum P4 levels >16.00 ng/ml on embryo transfer day are associated with clinical pregnancy.

Keywords: serum estradiol, serum progesterone, clinical pregnancy, frozen embryo transfer

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Authors: Harpa Ragnarsdóttir, Magnús Kjartan Gíslason, Kristín Briem, Guðný Lilja Oddsdóttir

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Introduction: Whiplash-Associated Disorder (WAD) is a health problem characterized by motor, neurological and psychosocial symptoms, stressing the need for a multimodal treatment approach. To achieve individualized multimodal approach, prognostic factors need to be identified early using validated patient-reported and objective outcome measures. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the degree of association between patient-reported and clinical outcome measures of WAD patients in the subacute phase. Methods: Individuals (n=41) with subacute (≥1, ≤3 months) WAD (I-II), medium to high-risk symptoms, or neck pain rating ≥ 4/10 on the Visual Analog Scale (VAS) were examined. Outcome measures included measurements for movement control (Butterfly test) and cervical active range of motion (cAROM) using the NeckSmart system, a computer system using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) that connects to a computer. The IMU sensor is placed on the participant’s head, who receives visual feedback about the movement of the head. Patient-reported neck disability, pain intensity, general health, self-perceived handicap, central sensitization, and difficulties due to dizziness were measured using questionnaires. Excel and R statistical software were used for statistical analyses. Results: Forty-one participants, 15 males (37%), 26 females (63%), mean (SD) age 36.8 (±12.7), underwent data collection. Mean amplitude accuracy (AA) (SD) in the Butterfly test for easy, medium, and difficult paths were 2.4mm (0.9), 4.4mm (1.8), and 6.8mm (2.7), respectively. Mean cAROM (SD) for flexion, extension, left-, and right rotation were 46.3° (18.5), 48.8° (17.8), 58.2° (14.3), and 58.9° (15.0), respectively. Mean scores on the Neck Disability Index (NDI), VAS, Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI), and 36-Item Short Form Survey RAND version (RAND) were 43% (17.4), 7 (1.7), 37 (25.4), 51 (17.5), and 39.2 (17.7) respectively. Females showed significantly greater deviation for AA compared to males for easy and medium Butterfly paths (p<0.05). Statistically significant moderate to strong positive correlation was found between the DHI and easy (r=0.6, p=0.05), medium (r=0.5, p=0.05)) and difficult (r=0.5, p<0.05) Butterfly paths, between the total RAND score and all cAROMs (r between 0.4-0.7, p≤0.05) except flexion (r=0.4, p=0.7), and between the NDI score and CSI (r=0.7, p<0.01), VAS (r=0.5, p<0.01), and DHI (r=0.7, p<0.01) scores respectively. Discussion: All patient-reported and objective measures were found to be outside the reference range. Results suggest females have worse movement control in the neck in the subacute WAD phase. However, no statistical difference based on gender was found in patient-reported measures. Suggesting females might have worse movement control than males in general in this phase. The correlation found between DHI and the Butterfly test can be explained because the DHI measures proprioceptive symptoms like dizziness and eye movement disorders that can affect the outcome of movement control tests. A correlation was found between the total RAND score and cAROM, suggesting that a reduced range of motion affects the quality of life. Significance: The NeckSmart system can detect abnormalities in cAROM, fine movement control, and kinesthesia of the neck. Results suggest females have worse movement control than males. Results show a moderate to a high correlation between several patient-reported and objective measurements.

Keywords: whiplash associated disorders, car-collision, neck, trauma, subacute

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Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha

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Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and time-consuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.

Keywords: soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil, geotechnical engineering

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Authors: Pui Hong Chung, Wing Chi Ho, Jun Li, Cyrus Leung, Ek Yeoh

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Background: Cigarette smoking is associated with poor tuberculosis (TB) outcomes in terms of progression of active TB, relapse of TB and TB-related mortality, but the association with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is unclear. The systematic review conducted aimed at studying the association between active smoking and LTBI, and likelihood of dose-response relationship. Methods: Two independent reviewers searched three electronic databases comprising PudMed, Medline by EBSCOHOST, ExcerptaMedica Database (EMBASE), from inception up to 31st Dec 2015 for studies reporting data on current smoking and the LTBI with tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) results, comparing the odds ratios (ORs) of outcome measure of TST or IGRAs among current smokers with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Seven studies were identified, including six cross-sectional studies and one longitudinal cohort study. The outcome measures from three studies were in TST, three studies in IGRAs and one for both tests. For TST, OR ranging from 1.39 to 3.40 (95% CI) with all studies shown positive association between cigarette smoking and LTBI. For IGRAs, OR ranging from 0.47 to 1.89 (95% CI) with one study shown the negative association that might be related to impaired interferon-gamma production in immunosuppressive persons. One identified study demonstrated positive dose-response relationship in TST result. Conclusions: Cigarette smoking is likely to be a risk factor of LTBI. There is the important implication for TB and tobacco control program to halt TB by empowering public health policy. Further study is also needed to provide more evidence of the dose-response model/relationship.

Keywords: latent tuberculosis infection, systematic review, active smoking, model

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Authors: Michael Smalenberger

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Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate and even exceed some benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. A common facet of many ITS is their use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to estimate parameters necessary for the implementation of the artificial intelligence component, and for the probability of mastery of a knowledge component relevant to the ITS. While various techniques exist to estimate these parameters and probability of mastery, none directly and reliably ask the user to self-assess these. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course for which detailed transaction-level observations were recorded, and users were also routinely asked direct questions that would lead to such a self-assessment. Comparisons were made between these self-assessed values and those obtained using commonly used estimation techniques. Our findings show that such self-assessments are particularly relevant at the early stages of ITS usage while transaction level data are scant. Once a user’s transaction level data become available after sufficient ITS usage, these can replace the self-assessments in order to eliminate the identifiability problem in BKT. We discuss how these findings are relevant to the number of exercises necessary to lead to mastery of a knowledge component, the associated implications on learning curves, and its relevance to instruction time.

Keywords: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Intelligent Tutoring System, in vivo study, parameter estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Yun-Shan Tsai, Si-Ping Lin, En-Chieh Lin, Xin-Hong Chen, Shin-Yun Ho, Shin-Hong Huang, Ching-ju Hsieh

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Background and significance: Uncorrected refractive errors and cataracts are the main visually debilitating ophthalmological abnormalities in adult participants with intellectual disability (ID). However, not all adult participants with ID may receive a regular and timely ophthalmological assessment. Consequently, some of the ocular diseases may not be diagnosed until late, thereby causing unnecessary ocular morbidity. In addition, recent clinical practice and researches have also suggested that eye-care services for this group are neglected. Purpose: To investigate the unmet need for eye care services, clinical characteristics of cataract, visual function, surgical outcome and prognostic predictors in adult participants with ID at Taipei City Hospital in Taiwan. Methods: This is a one-year prospective clinical study. We recruited about 120 eyes of 60 adult participants with ID who were received cataract surgery. Caregivers of all participants received a questionnaire on current eye care services. Clinical demographic data, such as age, gender, and associated systemic diseases or syndromes, were collected. All complete ophthalmologic examinations were performed 1 month preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively, including ocular biometry, visual function, refractive status, morphology of cataract, associated ocular features, anesthesia methods, surgical types, and complications. Morphology of cataract, visual and surgical outcome was analyzed. Results: A total of 60 participants with mean age 43.66 ± 13.94 years, including 59.02% male and 40.98% female, took part in comprehensive eye-care services. The prevalence of unmet need for eye care services was high (about 70%). About 50% of adult participants with ID have bilateral cataracts at the time of diagnosis. White cataracts were noted in about 30% of all adult participants with ID at the time of presentation. Associated ocular disorders were included myopic maculopathy (4.54%), corneal disorders (11.36%), nystagmus (20.45%), strabismus (38.64%) and glaucoma (2.27%). About 26.7% of adult participants with ID underwent extracapsular cataract extraction whereas a phacoemulsification was performed in 100% of eyes. Intraocular lens implantation was performed in all eyes. The most common postoperative complication was posterior capsular opacification (30%). The mean best-corrected visual acuity was significantly improved from preoperatively (mean log MAR 0.48 ± 0.22) to at 3 months postoperatively (mean log MAR 0.045 ± 0.22) (p < .05). Conclusions: Regular follow up will help address the need for eye-care services in participants with ID. A high incidence of bilateral cataracts, as well as white cataracts, was observed in adult participants with ID. Because of early diagnosis and early intervention of cataract, the visual and surgical outcomes of cataract are good, but the visual outcomes are suboptimal due to associated ocular comorbidities.

Keywords: adult participants with intellectual disability, cataract, cataract surgery

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Authors: Dipti Parida, Atasi Mohanty

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The focus of this research is to examine the interaction effect of flipped teaching and traditional teaching mode across two different medium (English and Odia) of instructional groups. Both Science and History subjects were taken to be taught in the Class- VIII in two different instructional mode/s. In total, 180 students of Class-VIII of both Odia and English medium schools were taken as the samples of this study; 90 participants (each group) were from both English and Odia medium schools ; 45 participants of each of these two groups were again assigned either to flip or traditional teaching method. We have two independent variables and each independent variable with two levels. Medium and mode of instruction are the two independent variables. Medium of instruction has two levels of Odia medium and English medium groups. The mode of instruction has also two levels of flip and traditional teaching method. Here we get 4 different groups, such as Odia medium students with traditional mode of teaching (O.M.T), Odia medium students with flipped mode of teaching (O.M.F), English medium students with traditional mode of teaching (E.M.T) and English medium students with flipped mode of teaching (E.M.F). Before the instructional administration, these four groups were given a test on the concerned topic to be taught. Based on this result, a one-way ANOVA was computed and the obtained result showed that these four groups don’t differ significantly from each other at the beginning. Then they were taught the concerned topic either in traditional or flip mode of teaching method. After that a 2×2×2 repeated measures ANOVA was done to analyze the group differences as well as the learning outcome before and after the teaching. The result table also shows that in post-test the learning outcome is highest in case of English medium students with flip mode of instruction. From the statistical analysis it is clear that the flipped mode of teaching is as effective for Odia medium students as it is for English medium students.

Keywords: medium of instruction, mode of instruction, test mode, vernacular medium

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Authors: Uma Krishnamoorthy, Vivienne Beavers, Janet Marshall

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Introduction: Cervical cytology showing features raising the suspicion of non cervical glandular neoplasia are reported as code 0 under the United Kingdom National Health Service Cervical screening programme ( NHSCSP). As the suspicion is regarding non cervical neoplasia, smear is reported as normal and patient informed that cervical screening result is normal. GP receives copy of results where it states further referral is indicated in small font within text of report. Background: There were several incidents of delayed diagnosis of endometrial cancer in Lancashire which prompted this Northwest Regional review to enable an understanding of underlying pathology outcome of code zero smears to raise awareness and also to review whether further action on wording of smear results was indicated to prevent such delay. Methodology: All Smears reported at the Manchester cytology centre who process cytology for Lancashire population from March 2013 to March 2014 were reviewed and histological diagnosis outcome of women in whom smear was reported as code zero was reviewed retrospectively . Results: Total smears reported by the cytology centre during this period was approximately 109400. Reports issued with result code 0 among this during this time period was 49.Results revealed that among three fourth (37) of women with code zero smear (N=49), evidence of underlying pathology of non cervical origin was confirmed. Of this, 73 % (36) were due to endometrial pathology with 49 % (24) endometrial carcinoma, 12 % (6)polyp, 4 % atypical endometrial hyperplasia (2), 6 % endometrial hyperplasia without atypia (3), and 2 % adenomyosis (1 case) and 2 % ( 1 case) due to ovarian adenocarcinoma. Conclusion: This review demonstrated that more than half (51 %) of women with a code 0 smear report were diagnosed with underlying carcinoma and 75 % had a confirmed underlying pathology contributory to code 0 smear findings. Recommendations and Action Plan: A local rapid access referral and management pathway for this group of women was implemented as a result of this in our unit. The findings and Pathway were shared with other regional units served by the cytology centre through the Pan Lancashire cervical screening board and through the Cytology centre. Locally, the smear report wording was updated to include a rubber stamp/ print in "Red Bold letters" stating that " URGENT REFERRAL TO GYNAECOLOGY IS INDICATED". Findings were also shared through the Pan Lancashire board with National cervical screening programme board, and revisions to wording of code zero smear reports to highlight the need for Urgent referral has now been agreed at National level to be implemented.

Keywords: code zero smears, endometrial cancer, non cervical glandular neoplasia, ovarian cancer

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Authors: Aid Abdelkrim

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A method of fatigue damage accumulation based upon application of energy parameters of the fatigue process is proposed in the paper. Using this model is simple, it has no parameter to be determined, it requires only the knowledge of the curve W–N (W: strain energy density N: number of cycles at failure) determined from the experimental Wöhler curve. To examine the performance of nonlinear models proposed in the estimation of fatigue damage and fatigue life of components under random loading, a batch of specimens made of 6082 T 6 aluminium alloy has been studied and some of the results are reported in the present paper. The paper describes an algorithm and suggests a fatigue cumulative damage model, especially when random loading is considered. This work contains the results of uni-axial random load fatigue tests with different mean and amplitude values performed on 6082T6 aluminium alloy specimens. The proposed model has been formulated to take into account the damage evolution at different load levels and it allows the effect of the loading sequence to be included by means of a recurrence formula derived for multilevel loading, considering complex load sequences. It is concluded that a ‘damaged stress interaction damage rule’ proposed here allows a better fatigue damage prediction than the widely used Palmgren–Miner rule, and a formula derived in random fatigue could be used to predict the fatigue damage and fatigue lifetime very easily. The results obtained by the model are compared with the experimental results and those calculated by the most fatigue damage model used in fatigue (Miner’s model). The comparison shows that the proposed model, presents a good estimation of the experimental results. Moreover, the error is minimized in comparison to the Miner’s model.

Keywords: damage accumulation, energy model, damage indicator, variable loading, random loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Nita Nurlaila Kadarwaty

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Purpose: This study presents a rare case of bilateral Acute Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma (PACG). Method: A case report of a 64-year-old woman with a good outcome Acute PACG in both eyes who underwent phacotrabeculectomy surgery. Result: A 64-year-old woman complained of acute pain in both eyes, accompanied by decreased vision, photophobia, and seeing halos for three weeks. There was no history of trauma, steroid or other systemic drugs used, or intraocular surgery before. Ophthalmologic examination revealed a right eye (RE) visual acuity of 0.1, left eye (LE) 0.2. RE intraocular pressure (IOP) was 12 mmhg and LE: 36.4 mmHg in medication of timolol maleat ED and acetazolamide oral. Both eyes' anterior segments revealed mixed injection, corneal edema, shallow anterior chamber, posterior synechiae, mid-dilatation pupil with negative pupillary reflection, and cloudy lens without intumescent. There was a glaucomatous optic and closed iridocorneal angle on the gonioscopy. Initial treatments included oral acetazolamide and potassium aspartate 250 mg three times a day, timolol maleate ED 0.5% twice a day, and prednisolone acetate ED 1% four times a day. This patient underwent trabeculectomy, phacoemulsification, and implantation of IOL in both eyes. One week after the surgeries, both eyes showed decreased IOP and good visual improvement. Conclusion: Bilateral simultaneous Acute PACG is generally severe and results in a poor outcome. It causes rapidly progressive visual loss and is often irreversible. Phacotrabeculectomy has more benefits compared to only phacoemulsification for the intervention regarding the reduced IOP post-surgical.

Keywords: acute primary angle closure glaucoma, intraocular pressure, phacotrabeculectomy, glaucoma

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Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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Authors: Vijay Kumar Singh, Pooja Kushwaha, Prabhat Ranjan, Krishna Kumar Ojha, Jitendra Kumar

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Present day high-throughput genomic technologies, NGS/microarrays, are producing large volume of data that require improved analysis methods to make sense of the data. The correlation between genes and samples has been regularly used to gain insight into many biological phenomena including, but not limited to, co-expression/co-regulation, gene regulatory networks, clustering and pattern identification. However, presence of outliers and violation of assumptions underlying Pearson correlation is frequent and may distort the actual correlation between the genes and lead to spurious conclusions. Here, we report a method to measure the strength of association between genes. The method assumes that the expression values of a gene are Bernoulli random variables whose outcome depends on the sample being probed. The method considers the two genes as uncorrelated if the number of sample with same outcome for both the genes (Ns) is equal to certainly expected number (Es). The extent of correlation depends on how far Ns can deviate from the Es. The method does not assume normality for the parent population, fairly unaffected by the presence of outliers, can be applied to qualitative data and it uses the binomial distribution to assess the significance of association. At this stage, we would not claim about the superiority of the method over other existing correlation methods, but our method could be another way of calculating correlation in addition to existing methods. The method uses binomial distribution, which has not been used until yet, to assess the significance of association between two variables. We are evaluating the performance of our method on NGS/microarray data, which is noisy and pierce by the outliers, to see if our method can differentiate between spurious and actual correlation. While working with the method, it has not escaped our notice that the method could also be generalized to measure the association of more than two variables which has been proven difficult with the existing methods.

Keywords: binomial distribution, correlation, microarray, outliers, transcriptome

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