Search results for: mega sporting events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2289

Search results for: mega sporting events

1569 The Principle of a Thought Formation: The Biological Base for a Thought

Authors: Ludmila Vucolova

Abstract:

The thought is a process that underlies consciousness and cognition and understanding its origin and processes is a longstanding goal of many academic disciplines. By integrating over twenty novel ideas and hypotheses of this theoretical proposal, we can speculate that thought is an emergent property of coded neural events, translating the electro-chemical interactions of the body with its environment—the objects of sensory stimulation, X, and Y. The latter is a self- generated feedback entity, resulting from the arbitrary pattern of the motion of a body’s motor repertory (M). A culmination of these neural events gives rise to a thought: a state of identity between an observed object X and a symbol Y. It manifests as a “state of awareness” or “state of knowing” and forms our perception of the physical world. The values of the variables of a construct—X (object), S1 (sense for the perception of X), Y (object), S2 (sense for perception of Y), and M (motor repertory that produces Y)—will specify the particular conscious percept at any given time. The proposed principle of interaction between the elements of a construct (X, Y, S1, S2, M) is universal and applies for all modes of communication (normal, deaf, blind, deaf and blind people) and for various language systems (Chinese, Italian, English, etc.). The particular arrangement of modalities of each of the three modules S1 (5 of 5), S2 (1 of 3), and M (3 of 3) defines a specific mode of communication. This multifaceted paradigm demonstrates a predetermined pattern of relationships between X, Y, and M that passes from generation to generation. The presented analysis of a cognitive experience encompasses the key elements of embodied cognition theories and unequivocally accords with the scientific interpretation of cognition as the mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses, and cognition means thinking and awareness. By assembling the novel ideas presented in twelve sections, we can reveal that in the invisible “chaos”, there is an order, a structure with landmarks and principles of operations and mental processes (thoughts) are physical and have a biological basis. This innovative proposal explains the phenomenon of mental imagery; give the first insight into the relationship between mental states and brain states, and support the notion that mind and body are inseparably connected. The findings of this theoretical proposal are supported by the current scientific data and are substantiated by the records of the evolution of language and human intelligence.

Keywords: agent, awareness, cognitive, element, experience, feedback, first person, imagery, language, mental, motor, object, sensory, symbol, thought

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1568 Evaluating the Service Quality and Customers’ Satisfaction for Lihpaoland in Taiwan

Authors: Wan-Yu Liu, Tiffany April Lin, Yu-Chieh Tang, Yi-Lin Wang, Chieh-Hui Li

Abstract:

As the national income in Taiwan has been raised, the life style of the public has also been changed, so that the tourism industry gradually moves from a service industry to an experience economy. The Lihpaoland is one of the most popular theme parks in Taiwan. However, the related works on performance of service quality of the park have been lacking since its re-operation in 2012. Therefore, this study investigates the quality of software/hardware facilities and services of the Lihpaoland, and aims to achieve the following three goals: 1) analyzing how various sample data of tourists leads to different results for service quality of LihpaoLand; 2) analyzing how tourists respond to the service tangibility, service reliability, service responsiveness, service guarantee, and service empathy of LihpaoLand; 3) according to the theoretical and empirical results, proposing how to improve the overall facilities and services of LihpaoLand, and hoping to provide suggestions to the LihpaoLand or other related businesses to make decision. The survey was conducted on the tourists to the LihpaoLand using convenience sampling, and 400 questionnaires were collected successfully. Analysis results show that tourists paid much attention to maintenance of amusement facilities and safety of the park, and were satisfied with them, which are great advantages of the park. However, transportation around the LihpaoLand was inadequate, and the price of the Fullon hotel (which is the hotel closest to the LihpaoLand) were not accepted by tourists – more promotion events are recommended. Additionally, the shows are not diversified, and should be improved with the highest priority. Tourists did not pay attention to service personnel’s clothing and the ticket price, but they were not satisfied with them. Hence, this study recommends to design more distinctive costumes and conduct ticket promotions. Accordingly, the suggestions made in this study for LihpaoLand are stated as follows: 1) Diversified amusement facilities should be provided to satisfy the needs at different ages. 2) Cheep but tasty catering and more distinctive souvenirs should be offered. 3) Diversified propaganda schemes should be strengthened to increase number of tourists. 4) Quality and professional of the service staff should be enhanced to acquire public praise and tourists revisiting. 5) Ticket promotions in peak seasons, low seasons, and special events should be conducted. 6) Proper traffic flows should be planned and combined with technologies to reduce waiting time of tourists. 7) The features of theme landscape in LihpaoLand should be strengthened to increase willingness of the tourists with special preferences to visit the park. 8) Ticket discounts or premier points card promotions should be adopted to reward the tourists with high loyalty.

Keywords: service quality, customers’ satisfaction, theme park, Taiwan

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1567 Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program: Waste Management Data Analytics for Planning and Optimization of Waste Collection

Authors: Aisha Al-Baroud

Abstract:

The United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC), Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) and Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) cooperated in a joint project to undertake comprehensive and collaborative efforts to remediate 26 million m3 of crude oil contaminated soil that had resulted from the Gulf War in 1990/1991. These efforts are referred to as the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). KOC has developed a Total Remediation Solution (TRS) for KERP, which will guide the Remediation projects, comprises of alternative remedial solutions with treatment techniques inclusive of limited landfills for non-treatable soil materials disposal, and relies on treating certain ranges of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH) contamination with the most appropriate remediation techniques. The KERP Remediation projects will be implemented within the KOC’s oilfields in North and South East Kuwait. The objectives of this remediation project is to clear land for field development and treat all the oil contaminated features (dry oil lakes, wet oil lakes, and oil contaminated piles) through TRS plan to optimize the treatment processes and minimize the volume of contaminated materials to be placed into landfills. The treatment strategy will comprise of Excavation and Transportation (E&T) of oil contaminated soils from contaminated land to remote treatment areas and to use appropriate remediation technologies or a combination of treatment technologies to achieve remediation target criteria (RTC). KOC has awarded five mega projects to achieve the same and is currently in the execution phase. As a part of the company’s commitment to environment and for the fulfillment of the mandatory HSSEMS procedures, all the Remediation contractors needs to report waste generation data from the various project activities on a monthly basis. Data on waste generation is collected in order to implement cost-efficient and sustainable waste management operations. Data analytics approaches can be built on the top of the data to produce more detailed, and in-time waste generation information for the basis of waste management and collection. The results obtained highlight the potential of advanced data analytic approaches in producing more detailed waste generation information for planning and optimization of waste collection and recycling.

Keywords: waste, tencnolgies, KERP, data, soil

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1566 Chinese Event Detection Technique Based on Dependency Parsing and Rule Matching

Authors: Weitao Lin

Abstract:

To quickly extract adequate information from large-scale unstructured text data, this paper studies the representation of events in Chinese scenarios and performs the regularized abstraction. It proposes a Chinese event detection technique based on dependency parsing and rule matching. The method first performs dependency parsing on the original utterance, then performs pattern matching at the word or phrase granularity based on the results of dependent syntactic analysis, filters out the utterances with prominent non-event characteristics, and obtains the final results. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: natural language processing, Chinese event detection, rules matching, dependency parsing

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1565 Data-Driven Surrogate Models for Damage Prediction of Steel Liquid Storage Tanks under Seismic Hazard

Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

Abstract:

The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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1564 Uncertainty in Risk Modeling

Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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1563 Characteristics of the Severe Rollover Crashes in the UAE Using In-Depth Crash Investigation Data

Authors: Yaser E. Hawas, Md. Didarul Alam

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Rollover crashes are complex events entailing interactions of driver, road, vehicle, and environmental factors. The primary objective of this paper is to present an empirical approach that can be used to characterise the rollover crashes and to identify some of the important factors that may lead to rollovers. Among the studied factors are the vehicle types and the rollover occurrence rate after hitting various barrier types. The carried analysis indicated that 71% of the rollover crashes occurred after impact and the type of rollover initiation is “trip/turn over” (nearly 50%). It was also found that light trucks (LTVs) vehicles are more likely to rollover than the sedan vehicles. Barrier impacts are associated with increased incidence of rollover.

Keywords: empirical, hitting barrier, in-depth crash investigation, rollover, severe crash

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1562 Efficacy and Safety of Computerized Cognitive Training Combined with SSRIs for Treating Cognitive Impairment Among Patients with Late-Life Depression: A 12-Week, Randomized Controlled Study

Authors: Xiao Wang, Qinge Zhang

Abstract:

Background: This randomized, open-label study examined the therapeutic effects of computerized cognitive training (CCT) combined with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) on cognitive impairment among patients with late-life depression (LLD). Method: Study data were collected from May 5, 2021, to April 21, 2023. Outpatients who met diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder according to the fifth revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria (i.e., a total score on the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17) ≥ 18 and a total score on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment scale (MOCA) <26) were randomly assigned to receive up to 12 weeks of CCT and SSRIs treatment (n=57) or SSRIs and Control treatment (n=61). The primary outcome was the change in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) scores from baseline to week 12 between the two groups. The secondary outcomes included changes in the HAMD-17 score, Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAMA) score and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) score. Mixed model repeated measures (MMRM) analysis was performed on modified intention-to-treat (mITT) and completer populations. Results: The full analysis set (FAS) included 118 patients (CCT and SSRIs group, n=57; SSRIs and Control group, n =61). Over the 12-week study period, the reduction in the ADAS-cog total score was significant (P < 0.001) in both groups, while MMRM analysis revealed a significantly greater reduction in cognitive function (ADAS-cog total scores) from baseline to posttreatment in the CCT and SSRIs group than in the SSRI and Control group [(F (1,115) =13.65, least-squares mean difference [95% CI]: −2.77 [−3.73, −1.81], p<0.001)]. There were significantly greater improvements in depression symptoms (measured by the HAMD-17) in the CCT and SSRIs group than in the control group [MMRM, estimated mean difference (SE) between groups −3.59 [−5.02, −2.15], p < 0.001]. The least-squares mean changes in the HAMA scores and NPI scores between baseline and week 8 were greater in the CCT and SSRIs group than in the control group (all P < 0.05). There was no significant difference between groups on response rates and remission rates by using the last-observation-carried-forward (LOCF) method (all P > 0.05). The most frequent adverse events (AEs) in both groups were dry mouth, somnolence, and constipation. There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups. Conclusions: CCT combined with SSRIs was efficacious and well tolerated in LLD patients with cognitive impairment.

Keywords: late-life depression, cognitive function, computerized cognitive training, SSRIs

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1561 Anomaly: A Case of Babri Masjid Dispute

Authors: Karitikeya Sonker

Abstract:

Religion as a discrete system through its lawful internal working produces an output in the form of realised spatial order with its social logic and a social order with its spatial logic. Thus, it appears to exhibit its duality of spatial and trans-spatial. The components of this system share a relevance forming a collective. This shared relevance creates meaning forming a group where all collectives share one identity. This group with its new social order and its spatial logic revive the already existing spatial order. These religious groups do so having a tendency to expand resulting in the production of space in a situation of encounter where they have found relevance. But an encounter without a lawful internal working of a discrete system results in anomaly because groups do not find relevance due to the absence of collective identity. Events happen all around. One of the main reasons we could say that something became an event is because of conflict. Conflict not in its definitive sense but any occurrence that happens because of an intervention that creates an event worth remembering. The unfolding of such events creates Cities and Urban spaces which exhibit their duality of spatial and trans-spatial by behaving as a discrete system. This system through its lawful internal working produces an output in the form of realized spatial order with its social logic and a social order with spatial logic. The components of this system form a collective through a shared a relevance. This shared relevance creates meaning forming a group where all collectives share one identity. This group with its new social order and its spatial logic revives the already existing spatial order. These groups do so having a tendency to expand resulting in the production of space in a situation of encounter where they have found relevance. But an encounter without a lawful internal working of the discrete system results in anomaly because groups do not find relevance due to the absence of collective identity. This paper makes an effort to explore one such even in the case of Babri Mosque and Ramjanmabhumi, Ayodhya to explain the anomaly as transposition of social and spatial. The paper through the case studies makes an attempt to generate an equation explaining the two different situations of religious encounters, former reviving the social and spatial order and the other resulting in anomaly. Through the case study, it makes an attempt to generate an equation explaining the two different situations of religious encounters, former reviving the social and spatial order and the other resulting in anomaly.

Keywords: Babri Masjid, Ayodhya, conflict, religion

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1560 The Research of Effectiveness of Animal Protection Act Implementation Reducing Animal Abuse

Authors: Yu Ling Chang

Abstract:

Since the United Nations announced Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, people are paying more and more attention to the value of lives. On the other hand, life education is being vigorously pushed in different countries. Unfortunately, the results have been only moderately successful by reason that the concept is not implemented in everyone’s daily life. Even worse, animal abuse and killing events keep happening. This research is focused on generalizing a conclusion from different countries’ Animal Protection Act and actual execution by case studies, in order to make an approach of whether the number of animal abuse is directly influenced by different laws and regimes or not. It concludes the central notion and spirit of Animal Protection Act in German, Japan, and Taiwan. Providing the reference of specific schemes and analysis based on Taiwanese social culture.

Keywords: animal abuse, Animal Management Act, Animal Protection Act, social culture

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1559 Political Participation of Iranian Women Celebrities

Authors: Naghmeh Sadat Nabavi

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Women´s role in political participation, despite its limitations, is undoubtedly the most essential and effective part of Iran. In all political events throughout Iran's history, women have been pioneers, although they have been limited from getting political positions, even in the parliament. In recent years, movements and protests have been formed by Iranian women to respect natural human rights, especially for women. These movements are accompanied and sometimes guided by female celebrities, the most important of which are actresses. In 2017, this cooperation reached its highest level compared to the past, and the political participation of actresses in support of Hassan Rouhani in the presidential elections brought people who were hesitant to vote to the polls. This type of participation of actresses is seen in the recent protest of #Woman_Life_Freedom in 2022 and 2023 that still continues.

Keywords: political participation, presidential election, actresses, celebrities, social media, women, Iran

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1558 Use of Satellite Altimetry and Moderate Resolution Imaging Technology of Flood Extent to Support Seasonal Outlooks of Nuisance Flood Risk along United States Coastlines and Managed Areas

Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

Abstract:

U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

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1557 Evaluation of Learning Outcomes, Satisfaction and Self-Assessment of Students as a Change Factor in the Polish Higher Education System

Authors: Teresa Kupczyk, Selçuk Mustafa Özcan, Joanna Kubicka

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The paper presents results of specialist literature analysis concerning learning outcomes and student satisfaction as a factor of the necessary change in the Polish higher education system. The objective of the empirical research was to determine students’ assessment of learning outcomes, satisfaction of their expectations, as well as their satisfaction with lectures and practical classes held in the traditional form, e-learning and video-conference. The assessment concerned effectiveness of time spent at classes, usefulness of the delivered knowledge, instructors’ preparation and teaching skills, application of tools, studies curriculum, its adaptation to students’ needs and labour market, as well as studying conditions. Self-assessment of learning outcomes was confronted with assessment by lecturers. The indirect objective of the research was also to identify how students assessed their activity and commitment in acquisition of knowledge and their discipline in achieving education goals. It was analysed how the studies held affected the students’ willingness to improve their skills and assessment of their perspectives at the labour market. To capture the changes underway, the research was held at the beginning, during and after completion of the studies. The study group included 86 students of two editions of full-time studies majoring in Management and specialising in “Mega-event organisation”. The studies were held within the EU-funded project entitled “Responding to challenges of new markets – innovative managerial education”. The results obtained were analysed statistically. Average results and standard deviations were calculated. In order to describe differences between the studied variables present during the process of studies, as well as considering the respondents’ gender, t-Student test for independent samples was performed with the IBM SPSS Statistics 21.0 software package. Correlations between variables were identified by calculation of Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients. Research results suggest necessity to introduce some changes in the teaching system applied at Polish higher education institutions, not only considering the obtained outcomes, but also impact on students’ willingness to improve their qualifications constantly, improved self-assessment among students and their opportunities at the labour market.

Keywords: higher education, learning outcomes, students, change

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1556 Innovative Acoustic Emission Techniques for Concrete Health Monitoring

Authors: Rahmat Ali, Beenish Khan, Aftabullah, Abid A. Shah

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This research is an attempt to investigate the wide range of events using acoustic emission (AE) sensors of the concrete cubes subjected to different stress condition loading and unloading of concrete cubes. A total of 27 specimens were prepared and tested including 18 cubic (6”x6”x6”) and nine cylindrical (4”x8”) specimens were molded from three batches of concrete using w/c of 0.40, 0.50, and 0.60. The compressive strength of concrete was determined from concrete cylinder specimens. The deterioration of concrete was evaluated using the occurrence of felicity and Kaiser effects at each stress condition. It was found that acoustic emission hits usually exceeded when damage increases. Additionally, the correlation between AE techniques and the load applied were determined by plotting the normalized values. The influence of w/c on sensitivity of the AE technique in detecting concrete damages was also investigated.

Keywords: acoustic emission, concrete, felicity ratio, sensors

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1555 Ant-Tracking Attribute: A Model for Understanding Production Response

Authors: Prince Suka Neekia Momta, Rita Iheoma Achonyeulo

Abstract:

Ant Tracking seismic attribute applied over 4-seconds seismic volume revealed structural features triggered by clay diapirism, growth fault development, rapid deltaic sedimentation and intense drilling. The attribute was extracted on vertical seismic sections and time slices. Mega tectonic structures such as growth faults and clay diapirs are visible on vertical sections with obscured minor lineaments or fractures. Fractures are distinctively visible on time slices yielding recognizable patterns corroborating established geologic models. This model seismic attribute enabled the understanding of fluid flow characteristics and production responses. Three structural patterns recognized in the field include: major growth faults, minor faults or lineaments and network of fractures. Three growth faults mapped on seismic section form major deformation bands delimiting the area into three blocks or depocenters. The growth faults trend E-W, dip down-to-south in the basin direction, and cut across the study area. The faults initiating from about 2000ms extended up to 500ms, and tend to progress parallel and opposite to the growth direction of an upsurging diapiric structure. The diapiric structures form the major deformational bands originating from great depths (below 2000ms) and rising to about 1200ms where series of sedimentary layers onlapped and pinchout stratigraphically against the diapir. Several other secondary faults or lineaments that form parallel streaks to one another also accompanied the growth faults. The fracture networks have no particular trend but form a network surrounding the well area. Faults identified in the study area have potentials for structural hydrocarbon traps whereas the presence of fractures created a fractured-reservoir condition that enhanced rapid fluid flow especially water. High aquifer flow potential aided by possible fracture permeability resulted in rapid decline in oil rate. Through the application of Ant Tracking attribute, it is possible to obtain detailed interpretation of structures that can have direct influence on oil and gas production.

Keywords: seismic, attributes, production, structural

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1554 Modelling Consistency and Change of Social Attitudes in 7 Years of Longitudinal Data

Authors: Paul Campbell, Nicholas Biddle

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There is a complex, endogenous relationship between individual circumstances, attitudes, and behaviour. This study uses longitudinal panel data to assess changes in social and political attitudes over a 7-year period. Attitudes are captured with the question 'what is the most important issue facing Australia today', collected at multiple time points in a longitudinal survey of 2200 Australians. Consistency of attitudes, and factors predicting change over time, are assessed. The consistency of responses has methodological implications for data collection, specifically how often such questions ought to be asked of a population. When change in attitude is observed, this study assesses the extent to which individual demographic characteristics, personality traits, and broader societal events predict change.

Keywords: attitudes, longitudinal survey analysis, personality, social values

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1553 Subjective Probability and the Intertemporal Dimension of Probability to Correct the Misrelation Between Risk and Return of a Financial Asset as Perceived by Investors. Extension of Prospect Theory to Better Describe Risk Aversion

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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1552 Assessing Environmental Psychology and Health Awareness in Delhi: A Fundamental Query for Sustainable Urban Living

Authors: Swati Rajput

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Environmental psychology explains that the person is a social agent that seeks to extract meaning from their built and natural environment to behave in a particular manner. It also shows the attachment or detachment of people to their environment. Assessing environmental psychology of people is imperative for planners and policy makers for urban planning. The paper investigates the environmental psychology of people living in nine districts of Delhi by calculating and assessing their Environmental Emotional Quotient (EEQ). Emotional Quotient deals with the ability to sense, understand, attach and respond according to the power of emotions. An Environmental Emotional Quotient has been formulated based upon the inventory administered to them. The respondents were asked questions related to their view and emotions about the green spaces, water resource conservation, air and environmental quality. An effort has been made to assess the feeling of belongingness among the residents. Their views were assessed on green spaces, reuse, and recycling of resources and their participation level. They were also been assessed upon health awareness level by considering both preventive and curative segments of health care. It was found that only 12 percent of the people is emotionally attached to their surroundings in the city. The emotional attachment reduces as we move away from the house to housing complex to neighbouring areas and rest of the city. In fact, the emotional quotient goes lower to lowest from house to other ends of the city. It falls abruptly after the radius of 1 km from the residence. The result also shows that nearly 54% respondents accept that there is environment pollution in their area. Around 47.8% respondents in the survey consider that diseases occur because of green cover depiction in their area. Major diseases are to airborne diseases like asthma and bronchitis. Seasonal disease prevalent, which specially occurred from last 3-4 years are malaria, dengue and chikengunya. Survey also shows that only 31 % of respondents visit government hospitals while 69% respondents visit private hospitals or small clinics for healthcare services. The paper suggests the need for environmental sensitive policies and need for green insurance in mega cities like Delhi.

Keywords: environmental psychology, environmental emotional quotient, preventive health care and curative health care, sustainable living

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1551 Erosion Modeling of Surface Water Systems for Long Term Simulations

Authors: Devika Nair, Sean Bellairs, Ken Evans

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Flow and erosion modeling provides an avenue for simulating the fine suspended sediment in surface water systems like streams and creeks. Fine suspended sediment is highly mobile, and many contaminants that may have been released by any sort of catchment disturbance attach themselves to these sediments. Therefore, a knowledge of fine suspended sediment transport is important in assessing contaminant transport. The CAESAR-Lisflood Landform Evolution Model, which includes a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) and a hydraulic model (Lisflood), is being used to assess the sediment movement in tropical streams on account of a disturbance in the catchment of the creek and to determine the dynamics of sediment quantity in the creek through the years by simulating the model for future years. The accuracy of future simulations depends on the calibration and validation of the model to the past and present events. Calibration and validation of the model involve finding a combination of parameters of the model, which, when applied and simulated, gives model outputs similar to those observed for the real site scenario for corresponding input data. Calibrating the sediment output of the CAESAR-Lisflood model at the catchment level and using it for studying the equilibrium conditions of the landform is an area yet to be explored. Therefore, the aim of the study was to calibrate the CAESAR-Lisflood model and then validate it so that it could be run for future simulations to study how the landform evolves over time. To achieve this, the model was run for a rainfall event with a set of parameters, plus discharge and sediment data for the input point of the catchment, to analyze how similar the model output would behave when compared with the discharge and sediment data for the output point of the catchment. The model parameters were then adjusted until the model closely approximated the real site values of the catchment. It was then validated by running the model for a different set of events and checking that the model gave similar results to the real site values. The outcomes demonstrated that while the model can be calibrated to a greater extent for hydrology (discharge output) throughout the year, the sediment output calibration may be slightly improved by having the ability to change parameters to take into account the seasonal vegetation growth during the start and end of the wet season. This study is important to assess hydrology and sediment movement in seasonal biomes. The understanding of sediment-associated metal dispersion processes in rivers can be used in a practical way to help river basin managers more effectively control and remediate catchments affected by present and historical metal mining.

Keywords: erosion modelling, fine suspended sediments, hydrology, surface water systems

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1550 Analysis of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies: Case Study of Supply Chain Disruptions

Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

Abstract:

Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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1549 The Power of Public Opinion in the Xinhai Revolution: Media, Public Sentiment, and Social Mobilization

Authors: Yu Yaochuan

Abstract:

This paper explores the pivotal role of public opinion during the Xinhai Revolution. Examining the dynamics of public sentiment in Chinese society in 1911 shows how information dissemination, ideological propaganda, and public mobilization worked together to drive the revolution to success. The study highlights the indispensable role of revolutionary newspapers, assemblies, and speeches in spreading revolutionary ideas, mobilizing the public, and shaping policy perceptions. By analyzing these historical events, the paper provides a deeper insight into the Xinhai Revolution and offers theoretical and empirical support for understanding the application of public opinion in modern social and political transformations.

Keywords: Xinhai Revolution, public opinion, social mobilization, information dissemination, ideology, political transformation

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1548 A Decentralized Application for Secure Data Handling of Wireless Networks Using Ethereum Smart Contracts

Authors: Midhun Xavier

Abstract:

This paper introduces a method to verify multi-agent systems in industrial control systems using blockchain technology. The proposed solution enables to record and verify each process that occurs while generating a customized product using Ethereum-based smart contracts. Node-Red software agents are developed with the help of semantic web technologies, and these software agents interact with IEC 61499 function blocks to execute the processes. The agent associated with each mechatronic component and its controller can communicate with the blockchain to record various events that occur during each process, and the latter smart contract helps to verify these process orders of the customized product.

Keywords: blockchain, Ethereum, node-red, IEC 61499, multi-agent system, MQTT

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1547 Developing an IT Management Policy: A Proposal

Authors: Robert Gilliland

Abstract:

In any organization, a potential issue can arise and become a problem when management deviates from the standard norms set in the system development process of an IT system and the policies that pertain to it. In these instances, cybersecurity is a big challenge that organizations have to face in safeguarding the data that they generate and use. When a new idea, task, or process begins, specific standards must be followed, along with the policies and procedures that ensure the safeguard of data in the information system within the company. A good IT Strategy and Policy should have individuals who are in charge of overseeing the design, development, implementation, and auditing of these policies. Auditors are people who check to make sure that the issue conforms with the plan that is in place. Management has the ability through the role of the manager to potentially abuse power is given and to direct specific ideas, events, projects, and outcomes that are contrary to the vision or goals of the company.

Keywords: strategic policy, policy management, new policy, strategic planning

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1546 A New Approach to Retrofit Steel Moment Resisting Frame Structures after Mainshock

Authors: Amir H. Farivarrad, Kiarash M. Dolatshahi

Abstract:

During earthquake events, aftershocks can significantly increase the probability of collapse of buildings, especially for those with induced damages during the mainshock. In this paper, a practical approach is proposed for seismic rehabilitation of mainshock-damaged buildings that can be easily implemented within few days after the mainshock. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, a case study nine story steel moment frame building is chosen which was designed to pre-Northridge codes. The collapse fragility curve for the aftershock is presented for both the retrofitted and non-retrofitted structures. Comparison of the collapse fragility curves shows that the proposed method is indeed applicable to reduce the seismic collapse risk.

Keywords: aftershock, the collapse fragility curve, seismic rehabilitation, seismic retrofitting

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1545 Composition, Velocity, and Mass of Projectiles Generated from a Chain Shot Event

Authors: Eric Shannon, Mark J. McGuire, John P. Parmigiani

Abstract:

A hazard associated with the use of timber harvesters is chain shot. Harvester saw chain is subjected to large dynamic mechanical stresses which can cause it to fracture. The resulting open loop of saw chain can fracture a second time and create a projectile consisting of several saw-chain links referred to as a chain shot. Its high kinetic energy enables it to penetrate operator enclosures and be a significant hazard. Accurate data on projectile composition, mass, and speed are needed for the design of both operator enclosures resistant to projectile penetration and for saw chain resistant to fracture. The work presented here contributes to providing this data through the use of a test machine designed and built at Oregon State University. The machine’s enclosure is a standard shipping container. To safely contain any anticipated chain shot, the container was lined with both 9.5 mm AR500 steel plates and 50 mm high-density polyethylene (HDPE). During normal operation, projectiles are captured virtually undamaged in the HDPE enabling subsequent analysis. Standard harvester components are used for bar mounting and chain tensioning. Standard guide bars and saw chains are used. An electric motor with flywheel drives the system. Testing procedures follow ISO Standard 11837. Chain speed at break was approximately 45.5 m/s. Data was collected using both a 75 cm solid bar (Oregon 752HSFB149) and 90 cm solid bar (Oregon 902HSFB149). Saw chains used were 89 Drive Link .404”-18HX loops made from factory spools. Standard 16-tooth sprockets were used. Projectile speed was measured using both a high-speed camera and a chronograph. Both rotational and translational kinetic energy are calculated. For this study 50 chain shot events were executed. Results showed that projectiles consisted of a variety combinations of drive links, tie straps, and cutter links. Most common (occurring in 60% of the events) was a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link combination having a mass of approximately 10.33 g. Projectile mass varied from a minimum of 2.99 g corresponding to a drive link only to a maximum of 18.91 g corresponding to a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link / cutter-link / drive-link combination. Projectile translational speed was measured to be approximately 270 m/s and rotational speed of approximately 14000 r/s. The calculated translational and rotational kinetic energy magnitudes each average over 600 J. This study provides useful information for both timber harvester manufacturers and saw chain manufacturers to design products that reduce the hazards associated with timber harvesting.

Keywords: chain shot, timber harvesters, safety, testing

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1544 Climate Change and Extreme Weather: Understanding Interconnections and Implications

Authors: Johnstone Walubengo Wangusi

Abstract:

Climate change is undeniably altering the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of extreme weather events worldwide. In this paper, we explore the complex interconnections between climate change and extreme weather phenomena, drawing upon research from atmospheric science, geology, and climatology. We examine the underlying mechanisms driving these changes, the impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies, and strategies for adaptation and mitigation. By synthesizing insights from interdisciplinary research, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted relationship between climate change and extreme weather, informing efforts to address the challenges posed by a changing climate.

Keywords: climate change, extreme weather, atmospheric science, geology, climatology, impacts, adaptation, mitigation

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1543 Broadband Ultrasonic and Rheological Characterization of Liquids Using Longitudinal Waves

Authors: M. Abderrahmane Mograne, Didier Laux, Jean-Yves Ferrandis

Abstract:

Rheological characterizations of complex liquids like polymer solutions present an important scientific interest for a lot of researchers in many fields as biology, food industry, chemistry. In order to establish master curves (elastic moduli vs frequency) which can give information about microstructure, classical rheometers or viscometers (such as Couette systems) are used. For broadband characterization of the sample, temperature is modified in a very large range leading to equivalent frequency modifications applying the Time Temperature Superposition principle. For many liquids undergoing phase transitions, this approach is not applicable. That is the reason, why the development of broadband spectroscopic methods around room temperature becomes a major concern. In literature many solutions have been proposed but, to our knowledge, there is no experimental bench giving the whole rheological characterization for frequencies about a few Hz (Hertz) to many MHz (Mega Hertz). Consequently, our goal is to investigate in a nondestructive way in very broadband frequency (A few Hz – Hundreds of MHz) rheological properties using longitudinal ultrasonic waves (L waves), a unique experimental bench and a specific container for the liquid: a test tube. More specifically, we aim to estimate the three viscosities (longitudinal, shear and bulk) and the complex elastic moduli (M*, G* and K*) respectively longitudinal, shear and bulk moduli. We have decided to use only L waves conditioned in two ways: bulk L wave in the liquid or guided L waves in the tube test walls. In this paper, we will present first results for very low frequencies using the ultrasonic tracking of a falling ball in the test tube. This will lead to the estimation of shear viscosity from a few mPa.s to a few Pa.s (Pascal second). Corrections due to the small dimensions of the tube will be applied and discussed regarding the size of the falling ball. Then the use of bulk L wave’s propagation in the liquid and the development of a specific signal processing in order to assess longitudinal velocity and attenuation will conduct to the longitudinal viscosity evaluation in the MHz frequency range. At last, the first results concerning the propagation, the generation and the processing of guided compressional waves in the test tube walls will be discussed. All these approaches and results will be compared to standard methods available and already validated in our lab.

Keywords: nondestructive measurement for liquid, piezoelectric transducer, ultrasonic longitudinal waves, viscosities

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1542 Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating Ground Motion Parameters

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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1541 Evaluation of Role of Surgery in Management of Pediatric Germ Cell Tumors According to Risk Adapted Therapy Protocols

Authors: Ahmed Abdallatif

Abstract:

Background: Patients with malignant germ cell tumors have age distribution in two peaks, with the first one during infancy and the second after the onset of puberty. Gonadal germ cell tumors are the most common malignant ovarian tumor in females aged below twenty years. Sacrococcygeal and retroperitoneal abdominal tumors usually presents in a large size before the onset of symptoms. Methods: Patients with pediatric germ cell tumors presenting to Children’s Cancer Hospital Egypt and National Cancer Institute Egypt from January 2008 to June 2011 Patients underwent stratification according to risk into low, intermediate and high risk groups according to children oncology group classification. Objectives: Assessment of the clinicopathologic features of all cases of pediatric germ cell tumors and classification of malignant cases according to their stage, and the primary site to low, intermediate and high risk patients. Evaluation of surgical management in each group of patients focusing on surgical approach, the extent of surgical resection according to each site, ability to achieve complete surgical resection and perioperative complications. Finally, determination of the three years overall and disease-free survival in different groups and the relation to different prognostic factors including the extent of surgical resection. Results: Out of 131 cases surgically explored only 26 cases had re exploration with 8 cases explored for residual disease 9 cases for remote recurrence or metastatic disease and the other 9 cases for other complications. Patients with low risk kept under follow up after surgery, out of those of low risk group (48 patients) only 8 patients (16.5%) shifted to intermediate risk. There were 20 patients (14.6%) diagnosed as intermediate risk received 3 cycles of compressed (Cisplatin, Etoposide and Bleomycin) and all high risk group patients 69patients (50.4%) received chemotherapy. Stage of disease was strongly and significantly related to overall survival with a poorer survival in late stages (stage IV) as compared to earlier stages. Conclusion: Overall survival rate at 3 three years was (76.7% ± 5.4, 3) years EFS was (77.8 % ±4.0), however 3 years DFS was much better (89.8 ± 3.4) in whole study group with ovarian tumors had significantly higher Overall survival (90% ± 5.1). Event Free Survival analysis showed that Male gender was 3 times likely to have bad events than females. Patients who underwent incomplete resection were 4 times more than patients with complete resection to have bad events. Disease free survival analysis showed that Patients who underwent incomplete surgery were 18.8 times liable for recurrence compared to those who underwent complete surgery, and patients who were exposed to re-excision were 21 times more prone to recurrence compared to other patients.

Keywords: extragonadal, germ cell tumors, gonadal, pediatric

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1540 Assessment of Treatment Methods to Remove Hazardous Dyes from Synthetic Wastewater

Authors: Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula

Abstract:

Access to clean drinking water becomes scarce due to the increase in extreme weather events because of the rise in the average global temperatures and climate change. By 2030, approximately 47% of the world’s population will face water shortages due to uncertainty in seasonal rainfall. Over 10000 varieties of synthetic dyes are commercially available in the market and used by textile and paper industries, negatively impacting human health when ingested. Besides humans, textile dyes have a negative impact on aquatic ecosystems by increasing biological oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand. This study assesses different treatment methods that remove dyes from textile wastewater while focusing on energy, economic, and engineering aspects of the treatment processes.

Keywords: textile wastewater, dye removal, treatment methods, hazardous pollutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 82