Search results for: customers’ wait-ing time
17971 Investigation on Performance of Change Point Algorithm in Time Series Dynamical Regimes and Effect of Data Characteristics
Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi
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In this paper, Bayesian online inference in models of data series are constructed by change-points algorithm, which separated the observed time series into independent series and study the change and variation of the regime of the data with related statistical characteristics. variation of statistical characteristics of time series data often represent separated phenomena in the some dynamical system, like a change in state of brain dynamical reflected in EEG signal data measurement or a change in important regime of data in many dynamical system. In this paper, prediction algorithm for studying change point location in some time series data is simulated. It is verified that pattern of proposed distribution of data has important factor on simpler and smother fluctuation of hazard rate parameter and also for better identification of change point locations. Finally, the conditions of how the time series distribution effect on factors in this approach are explained and validated with different time series databases for some dynamical system.Keywords: time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning, change-point algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 41817970 Barriers towards Effective Participation in Physically Oriented Leisure Time Activities: A Case Study of Federal College of Education, Pankshin Plateau State, Nigeria
Authors: Mulak Moses Yokdi
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Correct use of leisure time has suffered neglect in our society and the people ignorantly think that the trend does not matter. The researcher felt concerned about the issue and went on to find out why using FCE, Pankshin workers as a case study. Four hypotheses were used, considering such variables as leadership, traditional activities, stress due to work pressure and time constraint. The participants selected for the study were one hundred and ten members of FCE, Pankshin staff. A self-developed questionnaire was the instrument used. Chi-square (x2) was employed to test the hypotheses at P = 0.005; df = 3. The statistics of percentages was also used to describe the situation as implicated by the data. The results showed that all hypotheses were significant (P = 0.05). It was concluded that the four variables were impediments to effective participation in physically oriented leisure time activities among the FCE, Staff. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the FCE should get good leadership, create good awareness for people to understand why they should be effectively involved in physically oriented leisure time activities.Keywords: barriers, effective participation, leisure time, physically oriented, work pressure, time constraint
Procedia PDF Downloads 35817969 Development of Methods for Plastic Injection Mold Weight Reduction
Authors: Bita Mohajernia, R. J. Urbanic
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Mold making techniques have focused on meeting the customers’ functional and process requirements; however, today, molds are increasing in size and sophistication, and are difficult to manufacture, transport, and set up due to their size and mass. Presently, mold weight saving techniques focus on pockets to reduce the mass of the mold, but the overall size is still large, which introduces costs related to the stock material purchase, processing time for process planning, machining and validation, and excess waste materials. Reducing the overall size of the mold is desirable for many reasons, but the functional requirements, tool life, and durability cannot be compromised in the process. It is proposed to use Finite Element Analysis simulation tools to model the forces, and pressures to determine where the material can be removed. The potential results of this project will reduce manufacturing costs. In this study, a light weight structure is defined by an optimal distribution of material to carry external loads. The optimization objective of this research is to determine methods to provide the optimum layout for the mold structure. The topology optimization method is utilized to improve structural stiffness while decreasing the weight using the OptiStruct software. The optimized CAD model is compared with the primary geometry of the mold from the NX software. Results of optimization show an 8% weight reduction while the actual performance of the optimized structure, validated by physical testing, is similar to the original structure.Keywords: finite element analysis, plastic injection molding, topology optimization, weight reduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 28317968 Lead-Time Estimation Approach Using the Process Capability Index
Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed
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This research proposes a methodology to estimate the customer order lead time in the supply chain based on the process capability index. The cases when the process output is normally distributed and when it is not are considered. The relationships between the system capability indices in both service and manufacturing applications, delivery system reliability and the percentages of orders delivered after their promised due dates are presented. The proposed method can be used to examine the current process capability to deliver the orders before the promised lead-time. If the system was found to be incapable, the method can be used to help revise the current lead-time to a proper value according to the service reliability level selected by the management. Numerical examples and a case study describing the lead time estimation methodology and testing the system capability of delivering the orders before their promised due date are illustrated.Keywords: lead-time estimation, process capability index, delivery system reliability, statistical analysis, service achievement index, service quality
Procedia PDF Downloads 55417967 Impact of Soci̇al Media in Tourism Marketing
Authors: Betül Garda
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Technological developments have diversified marketing activities of the tourism sector and it has increased tourism opportunities to compete on a global scale for tourism businesses. Tourism businesses have been forced to use its core skills and knowledge effectively with the increase in effectiveness of the technology in the global competitive environment. Tourism businesses have been reached beyond the traditional boundaries because of their commercial activities, so, the boundaries of the national market either eliminated or blurred. Therefore, the internet is the alternative promotion tool and distribution channel to providing unlimited facilities for tourism suppliers. For example, the internet provides an opportunity to reach customers on a global scale with direct email marketing, advertising, customer service, promotion, sales, and marketing. Tourism businesses have improved themselves with the continuous information flows and also they have provided the permanence of the changes. Especially in terms of tourism businesses, social media is emerging as an extremely important tool in the use of knowledge effectively. This research paper investigates the impact of social media on the tourism businesses. A social networking site is a type of social media that provides a platform for business and people to connect with each other. Social media is so flexible that it can be used for both leisure and business purposes. In the tourism industry, social networking sites are one of the essential tools that play an important and beneficial role. The topic that will be discussed in this research paper are consumer behavior, connection with consumers, effectiveness in terms of time and cost, creating brand awareness and building the image of the company, promoting company, targeting consumers in a conceptual frame.Keywords: branding, promoting, social media in tourism, tourism marketing tools
Procedia PDF Downloads 28117966 Customer Satisfaction and Effective HRM Policies: Customer and Employee Satisfaction
Authors: S. Anastasiou, C. Nathanailides
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The purpose of this study is to examine the possible link between employee and customer satisfaction. The service provided by employees, help to build a good relationship with customers and can help at increasing their loyalty. Published data for job satisfaction and indicators of customer services were gathered from relevant published works which included data from five different countries. The reviewed data indicate a significant correlation between indicators of customer and employee satisfaction in the Banking sector. There was a significant correlation between the two parameters (Pearson correlation R2=0.52 P<0.05) The reviewed data provide evidence that there is some practical evidence which links these two parameters.Keywords: job satisfaction, job performance, customer’ service, banks, human resources management
Procedia PDF Downloads 31617965 A Method of Improving Out Put Using a Feedback Supply Chain System: Case Study Bramlima
Authors: Samuel Atongaba Danji, Veseke Moleke
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The increase of globalization is a very important part of today’s changing environment and due to this, manufacturing industries have to always come up with methods of continuous improvement of their manufacturing methods in order to be competitive, without which may lead them to be left out of the market due to constant changing customers requirement. Due to this, the need is an advance supply chain system which prevents a number of issues that can prevent a company from being competitive. In this work, we developed a feedback control supply chain system which streamline the entire process in order to improve competitiveness and the result shows that when applied in a different geographical area, the output varies.Keywords: globalization, supply chain, improvement, manufacturing
Procedia PDF Downloads 32517964 Modification Encryption Time and Permutation in Advanced Encryption Standard Algorithm
Authors: Dalal N. Hammod, Ekhlas K. Gbashi
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Today, cryptography is used in many applications to achieve high security in data transmission and in real-time communications. AES has long gained global acceptance and is used for securing sensitive data in various industries but has suffered from slow processing and take a large time to transfer data. This paper suggests a method to enhance Advance Encryption Standard (AES) Algorithm based on time and permutation. The suggested method (MAES) is based on modifying the SubByte and ShiftRrows in the encryption part and modification the InvSubByte and InvShiftRows in the decryption part. After the implementation of the proposal and testing the results, the Modified AES achieved good results in accomplishing the communication with high performance criteria in terms of randomness, encryption time, storage space, and avalanche effects. The proposed method has good randomness to ciphertext because this method passed NIST statistical tests against attacks; also, (MAES) reduced the encryption time by (10 %) than the time of the original AES; therefore, the modified AES is faster than the original AES. Also, the proposed method showed good results in memory utilization where the value is (54.36) for the MAES, but the value for the original AES is (66.23). Also, the avalanche effects used for calculating diffusion property are (52.08%) for the modified AES and (51.82%) percentage for the original AES.Keywords: modified AES, randomness test, encryption time, avalanche effects
Procedia PDF Downloads 23517963 Exploring the Sources of Innovation in Food Processing SMEs of Kerala
Authors: Bhumika Gupta, Jeayaram Subramanian, Hardik Vachhrajani, Avinash Shivdas
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Indian food processing industry is one of the largest in the world in terms of production, consumption, exports and growth opportunities. SMEs play a crucial role within this. Large manufacturing firms largely dominate innovation studies in India. Innovation sources used by SMEs are often different from that of large firms. This paper focuses on exploring various sources of innovation adopted by food processing SMEs in Kerala, South India. Outcome suggests that SMEs use various sources like suppliers, competitors, employees, government/research institutions and customers to get new ideas.Keywords: food processing, innovation, SMEs, sources of innovation
Procedia PDF Downloads 40817962 Control of the Sustainability of Decorative Topping for Bakery in Order to Extend the Shelf-Life of the Product
Authors: Radovan Čobanović, Milica Rankov Šicar
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In the modern bakery various supplements are used to attract more customers. Analyzed sample decorative toppings are consisted of flax seeds, corn grits, oatmeal, wheat flakes, sesame seeds, sunflower seeds, soybean sprouts are used as decoration for the bread. Our goal was to extend the product shelf life based on the analysis. According to the plan of sustainability it was defined that sample which already had expired shelf life had to be stored for 5 months at 25°C and analyzed every month from the day of reception until spoilage occurs. Samples were subjected to sensory analysis (appearance, odor, taste, color, and consistency), microbiological analysis (Salmonella spp., Bacillus cereus, Enterobacteriaceae and moulds) and chemistry analysis (free fatty acids (as oleic), peroxide number, water content and degree of acidity). All analyses were tested according: sensory analysis ISO 6658, Salmonella spp ISO 6579, Bacillus cereus ISO 7932, Enterobacteriaceae ISO 21528-2 and moulds ISO 21527-1, free fatty acids (as oleic) ISO 660, peroxide number ISO 3960, water content and degree of acidity Serbian ordinance on the methods of chemical analysis. After five months of storage, there had been the first changes concerning of sensory properties of the product. In the sample were visible worms and creations which look like spider nets linking seeds and cereal. The sample had smell on rancid and pungent. The results of microbiological analysis showed that Salmonella spp was not detected, Enterobacteriaceae were < 10 cfu/g during all 5 months but in fifth month Bacillus cereus and moulds occurred 700 cfu/g and 1500 cfu/g respectively. Chemical analyzes showed that the water content did not exceed a maximum of 14%. The content of free fatty acids ranged from 3.06 to 3.26%, degree of acidity from 3.69 to 4.9. With increasing degree of acidity the degradation of the sample and the activity of microorganisms was increased which led to the formation of acid reaction which is accompanied by the appearance of unpleasant odor and taste. Based on the obtained results it can be concluded that this product can have longer shelf life for four months than shelf life which is already defined because there are no changes that could have influence on decision of customers when purchase of this product is concerned.Keywords: bakery products, extension of shelf life, sensory and chemical and microbiological analyses, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 37917961 Parallelizing the Hybrid Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain/Finite Difference Time Domain Algorithms for the Large-Scale Electromagnetic Simulations Using Massage Passing Interface Library
Authors: Donggun Lee, Q-Han Park
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Due to its coarse grid, the Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain (PSTD) method has advantages against the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method in terms of memory requirement and operation time. However, since the efficiency of parallelization is much lower than that of FDTD, PSTD is not a useful method for a large-scale electromagnetic simulation in a parallel platform. In this paper, we propose the parallelization technique of the hybrid PSTD-FDTD (HPF) method which simultaneously possesses the efficient parallelizability of FDTD and the quick speed and low memory requirement of PSTD. Parallelization cost of the HPF method is exactly the same as the parallel FDTD, but still, it occupies much less memory space and has faster operation speed than the parallel FDTD. Experiments in distributed memory systems have shown that the parallel HPF method saves up to 96% of the operation time and reduces 84% of the memory requirement. Also, by combining the OpenMP library to the MPI library, we further reduced the operation time of the parallel HPF method by 50%.Keywords: FDTD, hybrid, MPI, OpenMP, PSTD, parallelization
Procedia PDF Downloads 14117960 Ethiopian Textile and Apparel Industry: Study of the Information Technology Effects in the Sector to Improve Their Integrity Performance
Authors: Merertu Wakuma Rundassa
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Global competition and rapidly changing customer requirements are forcing major changes in the production styles and configuration of manufacturing organizations. Increasingly, traditional centralized and sequential manufacturing planning, scheduling, and control mechanisms are being found insufficiently flexible to respond to changing production styles and highly dynamic variations in product requirements. The traditional approaches limit the expandability and reconfiguration capabilities of the manufacturing systems. Thus many business houses face increasing pressure to lower production cost, improve production quality and increase responsiveness to customers. In a textile and apparel manufacturing, globalization has led to increase in competition and quality awareness and these industries have changed tremendously in the last few years. So, to sustain competitive advantage, companies must re-examine and fine-tune their business processes to deliver high quality goods at very low costs and it has become very important for the textile and apparel industries to integrate themselves with information technology to survive. IT can create competitive advantages for companies to improve coordination and communication among trading partners, increase the availability of information for intermediaries and customers and provide added value at various stages along the entire chain. Ethiopia is in the process of realizing its potential as the future sourcing location for the global textile and garments industry. With a population of over 90 million people and the fastest growing non-oil economy in Africa, Ethiopia today represents limitless opportunities for international investors. For the textile and garments industry Ethiopia promises a low cost production location with natural resources such as cotton to enable the setup of vertically integrated textile and garment operation. However; due to lack of integration of their business activities textile and apparel industry of Ethiopia faced a problem in that it can‘t be competent in the global market. On the other hand the textile and apparel industries of other countries have changed tremendously in the last few years and globalization has led to increase in competition and quality awareness. So the aim of this paper is to study the trend of Ethiopian Textile and Apparel Industry on the application of different IT system to integrate them in the global market.Keywords: information technology, business integrity, textile and apparel industries, Ethiopia
Procedia PDF Downloads 35417959 Identifying Effective Strategies to Promote Vietnamese Fashion Brands in an Internationally Dominated Market
Authors: Lam Hong Lan, Gabor Sarlos
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It is hard to search for best practices in promotion for local fashion brands in Vietnam as the industry is still very young. Local fashion start-ups have grown quickly in the last five years, thanks in part to the internet and social media. However, local designer/owners can face a huge challenge when competing with international brands in the Vietnamese market – and few local case studies are available for guidance. In response, this paper studied how local small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) promote to their target customers in order to compete with international brands. Knowledge of both successful and unsuccessful approaches generated by this study is intended to both contribute to the academic literature on local fashion in Vietnam as well as to help local designers to learn from and improve their brand-building strategy. The primary study featured qualitative data collection via semi-structured depth interviews. Transcription and data analysis were conducted manually in order to identify success factors that local brands should consider as part of their promotion strategy. Purposive sampling of SMEs identified five designers in Ho Chi Minh City (the biggest city in Vietnam) and three designers in Hanoi (the second biggest) as interviewees. Participant attributes included: born in the 1980s or 1990s; familiar with internet and social media; designer/owner of a successful local fashion brand in the key middle market and/or mass market segments (which are crucial to the growth of local brands). A secondary study was conducted using social listening software to gather further qualitative data on what were considered to be successful or unsuccessful approaches to local fashion brand promotion on social media. Both the primary and secondary studies indicated that local designers had maximized their promotion budget by using owned media and earned media instead of paid media. Findings from the qualitative interviews indicate that internet and social media have been used as effective promotion platforms by local fashion start-ups. Facebook and Instagram were the most popular social networks used by the SMEs interviewed, and these social platforms were believed to offer a more affordable promotional strategy than traditional media such as TV and/or print advertising. Online stores were considered an important factor in helping the SMEs to reach customers beyond the physical store. Furthermore, a successful online store allowed some SMEs to reduce their business rental costs by maintaining their physical store in a cheaper, less central city area as opposed to a more traditional city center store location. In addition, the small comparative size of the SMEs allowed them to be more attentive to their customers, leading to higher customer satisfaction and rate of return. In conclusion, this study found that these kinds of cost savings helped the SMEs interviewed to focus their scarce resources on producing unique, high-quality collections in order to differentiate themselves from international brands. Facebook and Instagram were the main platforms used for promotion and brand-building. The main challenge to this promotion strategy identified by the SMEs interviewed was to continue to find innovative ways to maximize the impact of a limited marketing budget.Keywords: Vietnam, SMEs, fashion brands, promotion, marketing, social listening
Procedia PDF Downloads 11717958 Real-Time Online Tracking Platform
Authors: Denis Obrul, Borut Žalik
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We present an extendable online real-time tracking platform that can be used to track a wide variety of location-aware devices. These can range from GPS devices mounted inside a vehicle, closed and secure systems such as Teltonika and to mobile phones running multiple platforms. Special consideration is given to decentralized approach, security and flexibility. A number of different use cases are presented as a proof of concept.Keywords: real-time, online, gps, tracking, web application
Procedia PDF Downloads 34517957 Real Time Detection, Prediction and Reconstitution of Rain Drops
Authors: R. Burahee, B. Chassinat, T. de Laclos, A. Dépée, A. Sastim
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The purpose of this paper is to propose a solution to detect, predict and reconstitute rain drops in real time – during the night – using an embedded material with an infrared camera. To prevent the system from needing too high hardware resources, simple models are considered in a powerful image treatment algorithm reducing considerably calculation time in OpenCV software. Using a smart model – drops will be matched thanks to a process running through two consecutive pictures for implementing a sophisticated tracking system. With this system drops computed trajectory gives information for predicting their future location. Thanks to this technique, treatment part can be reduced. The hardware system composed by a Raspberry Pi is optimized to host efficiently this code for real time execution.Keywords: reconstitution, prediction, detection, rain drop, real time, raspberry, infrared
Procedia PDF Downloads 41117956 Design of Real Time Early Response Systems for Natural Disaster Management Based on Automation and Control Technologies
Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano
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A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.Keywords: disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time
Procedia PDF Downloads 43617955 The Effect of Temperature, Contact Time and Agitation Speed During Pre-Treatment on Elution of Gold
Authors: T. P. Oladele, C. A. Snyders, S. M. Bradshaw, G. Akdogan
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The effect of temperature, contact time and agitation during pre-treatment was investigated on the elution of gold from granular activated carbon at fixed caustic-cyanide concentration and elution conditions. It was shown that there are interactions between parameters during pre-treatment. At 80oC, recovery is independent of the contact time while the maximum recovery is obtained in the absence of agitation (0rpm). Increase in agitation speed from 0 rev/min to 1200 rev/min showed a decrease in recovery of approximately 20 percent at 80°C. Recovery with increased time from 15 minutes to 45 minutes is only pronounced at 25°C with approximately 4 percent increase at all agitation speeds. The results from elution recovery are aimed to give insight into the mechanisms of pre-treatment under the combinations of the chosen parameters.Keywords: gold, temperature, contact time, agitation speed, recovery
Procedia PDF Downloads 47717954 Islamic Finance: Its Theory, Products and a Brief View of Islamic Finance in Europe
Authors: Ahmet Sekreter
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Although there are conceptual similarities in terms of financial products between conventional and Islamic finance, they are entirely different financial systems. Despite Islamic finance’s small size in the conventional finance world, its promising growth makes Islamic finance a hot topic both in academia and business world. Today customers can access sophisticated Islamic financial products not only in Muslim countries but also in Europe. This study analyzes Islamic finance and its products and includes a brief overview of Islamic finance in Europe. Literature review is the basis of this paper. The author analyzed the academic papers, numerical data, and estimations to set a perspective for the future of Islamic finance in Europe. Findings show that UK is the main hub for the Islamic finance, and it will remain so in the near future.Keywords: islamic finance, islamic banking, islamic finance in Europe, finance
Procedia PDF Downloads 23317953 A Posteriori Trading-Inspired Model-Free Time Series Segmentation
Authors: Plessen Mogens Graf
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Within the context of multivariate time series segmentation, this paper proposes a method inspired by a posteriori optimal trading. After a normalization step, time series are treated channelwise as surrogate stock prices that can be traded optimally a posteriori in a virtual portfolio holding either stock or cash. Linear transaction costs are interpreted as hyperparameters for noise filtering. Trading signals, as well as trading signals obtained on the reversed time series, are used for unsupervised channelwise labeling before a consensus over all channels is reached that determines the final segmentation time instants. The method is model-free such that no model prescriptions for segments are made. Benefits of proposed approach include simplicity, computational efficiency, and adaptability to a wide range of different shapes of time series. Performance is demonstrated on synthetic and real-world data, including a large-scale dataset comprising a multivariate time series of dimension 1000 and length 2709. Proposed method is compared to a popular model-based bottom-up approach fitting piecewise affine models and to a recent model-based top-down approach fitting Gaussian models and found to be consistently faster while producing more intuitive results in the sense of segmenting time series at peaks and valleys.Keywords: time series segmentation, model-free, trading-inspired, multivariate data
Procedia PDF Downloads 13017952 Ex (War) Machina: Arab Spring
Authors: Deniz Alca
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This research aims to study the themes of autonomy, democracy and the legitimacy of power under the headline of Arab Spring. After the first wave of Arab Spring, among the frequently mentioned ideals of self-recognition, awakening, democracy, autonomy, freedom etc. main concern of the border neighbors and the western governments was to see a “legitimate power.” Although the metaphor of spring was still pointing at emancipation, the principal focus was mostly not on the people but on the governments. So the question of what makes a government legitimate has come to the forefront. However, democracy and freedom, seems to be the main subject matters of the discussions, this rush about establishment of “legitimate governments” lead other countries, to indulge or worse endorse armed oppositionists. So essence of “power” changed from legitimate to rulership. It seems that the civil initiative or autonomy and clearly democracy are still far away from us. The need to a savior is overpowering. This cultural and traditional and almost hereditary miss orientation of the people, both the ones who are playing the role of god and the ones who believed the inevitable need to be freed by someone else, seems to be leading the Arabs to a new autocracy or worse. Middle East is waiting for the ex machina to operate. But what it gets is a spreading warfare. This darkness falling down on Middle East under the concept of spring may be explained by the confrontation of the concepts of emancipation and liberation. So the question is, if the era of emancipation really over or is there still a chance for autonomy and grassroots democracy operating as constituent power?Keywords: autonomy, awakening, civil initiative, democracy, emancipation, legitimacy, liberation
Procedia PDF Downloads 40017951 Graphene Oxide Fiber with Different Exfoliation Time and Activated Carbon Particle
Authors: Nuray Uçar, Mervin Ölmez, Özge Alptoğa, Nilgün K. Yavuz, Ayşen Önen
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In recent years, research on continuous graphene oxide fibers has been intensified. Therefore, many factors of production stages are being studied. In this study, the effect of exfoliation time and presence of activated carbon particle (ACP) on graphene oxide fiber’s properties has been analyzed. It has been seen that cross-sectional appearance of sample with ACP is harsh and porous because of ACP. The addition of ACP did not change the electrical conductivity. However, ACP results in an enormous decrease of mechanical properties. Longer exfoliation time results to higher crystallinity degree, C/O ratio and less d space between layers. The breaking strength and electrical conductivity of sample with less exfoliation time is some higher than sample with high exfoliation time.Keywords: activated carbon, coagulation by wet spinning, exfoliation, graphene oxide fiber
Procedia PDF Downloads 33417950 Application of Generalized Autoregressive Score Model to Stock Returns
Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke
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The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying
Procedia PDF Downloads 49317949 Local Binary Patterns-Based Statistical Data Analysis for Accurate Soccer Match Prediction
Authors: Mohammad Ghahramani, Fahimeh Saei Manesh
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Winning a soccer game is based on thorough and deep analysis of the ongoing match. On the other hand, giant gambling companies are in vital need of such analysis to reduce their loss against their customers. In this research work, we perform deep, real-time analysis on every soccer match around the world that distinguishes our work from others by focusing on particular seasons, teams and partial analytics. Our contributions are presented in the platform called “Analyst Masters.” First, we introduce various sources of information available for soccer analysis for teams around the world that helped us record live statistical data and information from more than 50,000 soccer matches a year. Our second and main contribution is to introduce our proposed in-play performance evaluation. The third contribution is developing new features from stable soccer matches. The statistics of soccer matches and their odds before and in-play are considered in the image format versus time including the halftime. Local Binary patterns, (LBP) is then employed to extract features from the image. Our analyses reveal incredibly interesting features and rules if a soccer match has reached enough stability. For example, our “8-minute rule” implies if 'Team A' scores a goal and can maintain the result for at least 8 minutes then the match would end in their favor in a stable match. We could also make accurate predictions before the match of scoring less/more than 2.5 goals. We benefit from the Gradient Boosting Trees, GBT, to extract highly related features. Once the features are selected from this pool of data, the Decision trees decide if the match is stable. A stable match is then passed to a post-processing stage to check its properties such as betters’ and punters’ behavior and its statistical data to issue the prediction. The proposed method was trained using 140,000 soccer matches and tested on more than 100,000 samples achieving 98% accuracy to select stable matches. Our database from 240,000 matches shows that one can get over 20% betting profit per month using Analyst Masters. Such consistent profit outperforms human experts and shows the inefficiency of the betting market. Top soccer tipsters achieve 50% accuracy and 8% monthly profit in average only on regional matches. Both our collected database of more than 240,000 soccer matches from 2012 and our algorithm would greatly benefit coaches and punters to get accurate analysis.Keywords: soccer, analytics, machine learning, database
Procedia PDF Downloads 23117948 Time-Series Load Data Analysis for User Power Profiling
Authors: Mahdi Daghmhehci Firoozjaei, Minchang Kim, Dima Alhadidi
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In this paper, we present a power profiling model for smart grid consumers based on real time load data acquired smart meters. It profiles consumers’ power consumption behaviour using the dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering algorithm. Due to the invariability of signal warping of this algorithm, time-disordered load data can be profiled and consumption features be extracted. Two load types are defined and the related load patterns are extracted for classifying consumption behaviour by DTW. The classification methodology is discussed in detail. To evaluate the performance of the method, we analyze the time-series load data measured by a smart meter in a real case. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed profiling method with 90.91% true positive rate for load type clustering in the best case.Keywords: power profiling, user privacy, dynamic time warping, smart grid
Procedia PDF Downloads 14117947 Components of Emotional Intelligence in Iranian Entrepreneurs
Authors: Farzaneh Noori
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Entrepreneurs face different sort of difficulties especially with customers, organizations and employees. Emotional intelligence which is the ability to understand and control the emotions is an important factor to help entrepreneurs end up challenges to the result they prefer. Thus, it is assumed that entrepreneurs especially those who have passed the first challenging years of starting a new business, have high emotional intelligence. In this study the Iranian established entrepreneurs have been surveyed. According to Iran Gem 2014 report the percentage of established entrepreneur in Iran is 10.92%. So by using Cochran sample formula (1%) 96 Iranian established entrepreneurs have been selected and Emotional intelligence appraisal questionnaire distributed to them. The SPSS19 result shows high emotional intelligence in Iranian established entrepreneurs.Keywords: emotional intelligence, emotional intelligence appraisal questionnaire, entrepreneurs, Iran
Procedia PDF Downloads 43717946 Rumination Time and Reticuloruminal Temperature around Calving in Eutocic and Dystocic Dairy Cows
Authors: Levente Kovács, Fruzsina Luca Kézér, Ottó Szenci
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Prediction of the onset of calving and recognizing difficulties at calving has great importance in decreasing neonatal losses and reducing the risk of health problems in the early postpartum period. In this study, changes of rumination time, reticuloruminal pH and temperature were investigated in eutocic (EUT, n = 10) and dystocic (DYS, n = 8) dairy cows around parturition. Rumination time was continuously recorded using an acoustic biotelemetry system, whereas reticuloruminal pH and temperature were recorded using an indwelling and wireless data transmitting system. The recording period lasted from 3 d before calving until 7 days in milk. For the comparison of rumination time and reticuloruminal characteristics between groups, time to return to baseline (the time interval required to return to baseline from the delivery of the calf) and area under the curve (AUC, both for prepartum and postpartum periods) were calculated for each parameter. Rumination time decreased from baseline 28 h before calving both for EUT and DYS cows (P = 0.023 and P = 0.017, respectively). After 20 h before calving, it decreased onwards to reach 32.4 ± 2.3 and 13.2 ± 2.0 min/4 h between 8 and 4 h before delivery in EUT and DYS cows, respectively, and then it decreased below 10 and 5 min during the last 4 h before calving (P = 0.003 and P = 0.008, respectively). Until 12 h after delivery rumination time reached 42.6 ± 2.7 and 51.0 ± 3.1 min/4 h in DYS and EUT dams, respectively, however, AUC and time to return to baseline suggested lower rumination activity in DYS cows than in EUT dams for the 168-h postpartum observational period (P = 0.012 and P = 0.002, respectively). Reticuloruminal pH decreased from baseline 56 h before calving both for EUT and DYS cows (P = 0.012 and P = 0.016, respectively), but did not differ between groups before delivery. In DYS cows, reticuloruminal temperature decreased from baseline 32 h before calving by 0.23 ± 0.02 °C (P = 0.012), whereas in EUT cows such a decrease was found only 20 h before delivery (0.48 ± 0.05 °C, P < 0.01). AUC of reticuloruminal temperature calculated for the prepartum period was greater in EUT cows than in DYS cows (P = 0.042). During the first 4 h after calving, it decreased from 39.7 ± 0.1 to 39.00 ± 0.1 °C and from 39.8 ± 0.1 to 38.8 ± 0.1 °C in EUT and DYS cows, respectively (P < 0.01 for both groups) and reached baseline levels after 35.4 ± 3.4 and 37.8 ± 4.2 h after calving in EUT and DYS cows, respectively. Based on our results, continuous monitoring of changes in rumination time and reticuloruminal temperature seems to be promising in the early detection of cows with a higher risk of dystocia. Depressed postpartum rumination time of DYS cows highlights the importance of the monitoring of cows experiencing difficulties at calving.Keywords: reticuloruminal pH, reticuloruminal temperature, rumination time, dairy cows, dystocia
Procedia PDF Downloads 31217945 Reducing the Cooking Time of Bambara Groundnut (BGN)
Authors: Auswell Amfo-Antiri, Esther Eshun, Theresa A. Amu
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Cooking Bambara groundnut (Bambara beans) is time and energy-consuming. Over time, some substances have been used to help reduce cooking time and save energy. This experimental study was carried out to find ways of reducing the cooking time of Bambara groundnut using selected organic substances. Twenty grams (20g) each of fresh pawpaw leaves, guava leaves, ginger, onion, and palm kernel were cooked with five samples of 200g of the creamy variety of raw Bambara groundnut. A control was cooked without any organic substance added. All six samples were cooked with equal quantities of water (4L); the gas mark used for cooking the samples was marked 5, the highest for the largest burner, using the same cooking pot. Gas matter. The control sample used 192 minutes to cook thoroughly. The ginger-treated sample (AET02) had the shortest cooking time of 145 minutes, followed by the onion-treated sample (AET05), with a cooking time of 157 minutes. The sample cooked with Palm kernel (AET06) and Pawpaw (AET04) used 172 minutes and 174 minutes, respectively, while sample AET03, cooked with Guava, used 185 minutes for cooking. The difference in cooking time for the sample treated with ginger (AET02) and onion (AET05) was 47 minutes and 35 minutes, respectively, as compared with the control. The comparison between Control and Pawpaw produced [p=0.163>0.05]; Control and Ginger yielded [p=0.006<0.05]; Control and Kernel resulted in [p=0.128>0.05]; Control and Guava resulted in [p=0.560>0.05]. The study concluded that ginger and onions comparatively reduced the cooking time for Bambara ground nut appreciably. The study recommended that ginger and onions could be used to reduce the cooking time of Bambara groundnut.Keywords: cooking time, organic substances, ginger, onions, pawpaw leaves, guava leaves, bambara groundnut
Procedia PDF Downloads 7417944 Modern Tragic Substance in O’Neill’s Desire under the Elms and Mourning Becomes Electra
Authors: Azza Taha Zaki
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The position Eugene O’Neill occupies in the history of American drama is undisputable. Critics have agreed that the American theatre was waiting for O’Neill to give it substance, character, and value. The American dramatist continues to be considered as a major influence on the body of dramatic repertoire across the globe. The American theatre before O’Neill knew playwrights who were mostly viewed as entertainers. The serious drama had to wait until O’Neill started his career with expressionistic and social drama. His breakthrough, however, came in 1925 when he published Desire Under the Elms, described as the first important tragedy to be written in America. Mourning Becomes Electra, published in 1931, further reinforced the reputation of Eugene O’Neill and was described as his 'magnum opus'. Aspiring to portray the essence of life and man’s innermost conflicts, O’Neill turned to the classical model, rather than to social realistic drama, to create modern tragedies with the aid of the then-new science of psychology. The present paper aims to undertake an in-depth study of how overtones from classical tragedies by the classical masters Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides resonate through O’Neill’s two plays. The paper shows how leaning on classical themes and concepts interpreted in terms of psychological forces have added depth and tragic substance to a modern milieu and produced masterpieces of dramaturgy.Keywords: classical, drama, O'Neill, modern, tragic
Procedia PDF Downloads 13817943 Status Report of the Express Delivery Industry in China
Authors: Ying Bo Xie, Hisa Yuki Kurokawa
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Due to the fast development, China's express delivery industry has involved in a dilemma that the service quality are keeping decreasing while the construction rate of delivery network cannot meet the customers’ demand. In order to get out of this dilemma and enjoy a succession development rate, it is necessary to understand the current situation of China's express delivery industry. Firstly, the evolution of China's express delivery industry was systematical presented. Secondly, according to the number of companies and the amount of parcels they has dealt each year, the merits and faults of tow kind of operating pattern was analyzed. Finally, based on the characteristics of these express companies, the problems of China's express delivery industry was divided into several types and the countermeasures were given out respectively.Keywords: China, express delivery industry, status, problem
Procedia PDF Downloads 35417942 Formation Control for Linear Multi-Robot System with Switched Directed Topology and Time-Varying Delays
Authors: Yaxiao Zhang, Yangzhou Chen
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This study investigate the formation problem for high-order continuous-time multi-robot with bounded symmetric time-varying delay protocol under switched directed communication topology. By using a linear transformation, the formation problem is transformed to stability analysis of a switched delay system. Under the assumption that each communication topology has a directed spanning tree, sufficient conditions are presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) that the multi-robot system can achieve a desired formation by the trade-off among the pre-exist topologies with the help of the scheme of average dwell time. A numeral example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.Keywords: multi-robot systems, formation, switched directed topology, symmetric time-varying delay, average dwell time, linear matrix inequalities (lmis)
Procedia PDF Downloads 528