Search results for: post-bladder catheter infection

Authors: Fatima Zohra Bissaad, Farid Bounaceur, Nassima Behidj, Nadjiba Chebouti, Fatma Halouane, Bahia Doumandji-Mitiche

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Effect of Beauveria bassiana and Metarhizium anisopliae var. acridum on the 5^th instar nymphs of Schistocerca gregaria was studied in the laboratory. Infection by these both entomopathogenic fungi caused reduction in the hemolymph total protein. The average amounts of total proteins were 2.3, 2.07, 2.09 µg/100 ml of haemolymph in the control and M. anisopliae var. acridum, and B. bassiana based-treatments, respectively. Three types of haemocytes were recognized and identified as prohaemocytes, plasmatocytes and granulocytes. The treatment caused significant reduction in the total haemocyte count and in each haemocyte type on the 9^th day after its application.

Keywords: Beauveria bassiana, haemolymph picture, haemolymph protein, Metarhizium anisopliae var. acridum, Schistocerca gregaria

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Authors: Paul Feyi Waboso

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This case report presents a 57-year-old female patient with a history of colon cancer, colostomy, and immunocompromise, who presented with an unusual bilateral vulval abscess, more prominent on the left side. Due to the atypical presentation, an MRI was performed, revealing a pelvic collection and a fistulous connection between the pelvis and vulva. This finding prompted an urgent surgical intervention. This case highlights the diagnostic and therapeutic challenges of managing complex abscesses and fistulas in immunocompromised patients. Introduction: Vulval abscesses in immunocompromised individuals can present with atypical features and may be associated with complex pathologies. Patients with a history of cancer, colostomy, and immunocompromise are particularly prone to infections and may present with unusual manifestations. This report discusses a case of a large bilateral vulval abscess with an underlying pelvic fistula, emphasizing the importance of advanced imaging in cases with atypical presentations. Case Presentation: A 57-year-old female with a known history of colon cancer, treated with colostomy, presented with severe pain and swelling in the vulval area. Physical examination revealed bilateral vulval swelling, with the abscess on the left side appearing larger and more pronounced than on the right. Given her immunocompromised status and the unusual nature of the presentation, we requested an MRI of the pelvis, suspecting an underlying pathology beyond a typical abscess. Investigations: MRI imaging revealed a significant pelvic collection and identified a fistulous tract between the pelvis and the vulva. This confirmed that the vulval abscess was connected to a deeper pelvic infection, necessitating urgent intervention. Management: After consultation with the multidisciplinary team (MDT), it was agreed that the patient required surgical intervention, having had 48 hours of antibiotics. The patient underwent evacuation of the left-sided vulval abscess under spinal anesthesia. During surgery, the pelvic collection was drained of 200 ml of pus. Outcome and Follow-Up: Postoperative recovery was closely monitored due to the patient’s immunocompromised state. Follow-up imaging and clinical evaluation showed improvement in symptoms, with gradual resolution of infection. The patient was scheduled for regular follow-up visits to monitor for recurrence or further complications. Discussion: Bilateral vulval abscesses are uncommon and, in an immunocompromised patient, warrant thorough investigation to rule out deeper infectious or fistulous connections. This case underscores the utility of MRI in identifying complex fistulous tracts and highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach in managing such high-risk patients. Conclusion: This case illustrates a rare presentation of bilateral vulval abscess with an associated pelvic fistula.

Keywords: vulval abscess, MDT team, colon cancer with pelvic fistula, vulval skin condition

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Authors: Hailemariam Getachew, John Sandi, Isata Dumbuya, Patricia Efe.Azikiwe, Evaline Nginge, Moses Mugisha, Eseoghene Dase, Foday Mandaray, Grace Moore

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Enhanced recovery after cesarean section (ERAC) is a standardized peri- operative care program that comprises the multidisciplinary team's collective efforts working in collaboration throughout the peri-operative period with the principal goal to improve quality of surgical care, decrease surgical related complications, and increasing patient satisfaction. Objective: The main objective of this project is to improve the implementation of enhanced recovery after cesarean section at Koidu Government hospital. Identified gap: Even though the hospital is providing comprehensive maternal and child care service, there are gaps in the implementation of ERAC. According to our survey, we found that there is low (13.3%) utilization of WHO surgical safety checklist, only limited (15.9%) patients get opioid free analgesia, pain was not recorded as a vital sign, there is no standardized checklist for hand over to and from Post Anesthesia care Unit(PACU). Furthermore, there is inconsistent evidence based post-operative care and there is no local consensus protocol and guideline as well. Implementation plan: we aimed at designing standardized protocol, checklist and guideline, provide training, build staff capacity, document pain as vital sign, perform regional analgesia, and provide evidence based post-operative care, monitoring and evaluation. Result: Data from 389 cesarean mothers showed that, Utilization of the WHO surgical safety check list found to be 95%, and pain assessment and documentation was done for all surgical patients. Oral feeding, ambulation and catheter removal was performed as per the ERAC standard for all patients. Postoperative complications drastically decreased from 13.6% to 8.1%. While, the rate of readmission was kept below 1%. Furthermore, the duration of hospital stay decreased from 4.64 days to 3.12 days. Conclusion The successful implementation of ERAC protocols demonstrates through this Quality Improvement Project that, the effectiveness of the protocols in improving recovery and patient outcome following cesarean section.

Keywords: cesarean delivery, enhanced recovery, quality improvement, patient outcome

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Authors: S. A. Bhat, Ahmad Arif, Muneeb U. Rehman, Manzoor R Mir, S. Bilal, Ishraq Hussain, H. M Khan, S. Shanaz, M. I Mir, Sabhiya Majid

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Background: Geologically Climatic conditions of the state range from sub-tropical (Jammu), temperate (Kashmir) to cold artic (Ladakh) zones, which exerts significant influence on its agro-climatic conditions. Gastrointestinal parasitism is a major problem in sheep production worldwide. Materials and Methods: The present study was to evaluate the resistance status of sheep breeds reared in Kashmir Valley for natural resistance against Haemonchus contortus by natural pasture challenge infection. Ten microsatellite markers were used in the study for evaluation of association of Ovar-MHC with parasitic resistance in association with biochemical and parasitological parameters. Following deworming, 500 animals were subjected to selected contaminated pastures in a vicinity of the livestock farms of SKUAST-K and Sheep Husbandry Kashmir. For each animal about 10-15 ml blood was collected aseptically for molecular and biochemical analysis. Weekly fecal samples (3g) were taken, directly from the rectum of all experimental animals and examined for Fecal egg count (FEC) with modified McMaster technique. Packed cell volume (PCV) was determined within 2-5 h of blood collection, all the biochemical parameters were determined in serum by semi automated analyzer. DNA was extracted from all the blood samples with phenol-chloroform method. Microsatellite analysis was done by denaturing sequencing gel electrophoresis Results: Overall sheep from Bakerwal breed followed by Corriediale breed performed relatively better in the trial; however difference between breeds remained low. Both significant (P<0.05) and non-significant differences with respect to resistance against haemonchosis were noted at different intervals in all the parameters.. All the animals were typed for the microsatellites INRA132, OarCP73, DRB1 (U0022), OLA-DQA2, BM1818, TFAP2A, HH56, BM1815, IL-3 and BM-1258. An association study including the effect of FEC, PCV, TSP, SA, LW, and the number of alleles within each marker was done. All microsatellite markers showed degree of heterozygosity of 0.72, 0.72, 0.75, 0.62, 0.84, 0.69, 0.66, 0.65, 0.73 and 0.68 respectively. Significant association between alleles and the parameters measured were only found for the OarCP73, OLA-DQA2 and BM1815 microsatellite marker. Standard alleles of the above markers showed significant effect on the TP, SA and body weight. The three sheep breeds included in the study responded differently to the nematode infection, which may be attributed to their differences in their natural resistance against nematodes. Conclusion: Our data confirms that some markers (OarCP73, OLA-DQA2 and BM1815) within Ovar-MHC are associated with phenotypic parameters of resistance and suggest superiority of Bakerwal sheep breed in natural resistance against Haemonchus contortus.

Keywords: Ovar-Mhc, ovine leukocyte antigen (OLA), sheep, parasitic resistance, Haemonchus contortus, phenotypic & genotypic markers

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Authors: E. Omanya, E. Mueni, G. Makau, M. Kariuki

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HIV infection is the strongest risk factor for a person to develop TB. Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for People Living with HIV (PLWHIV) not only reduces the individual patients’ risk of developing active TB but mitigates cross infection. In Kenya, IPT for six months was recommended through the National TB, Leprosy and Lung Disease Program to treat latent TB. In spite of this recommendation by the national government, uptake of IPT among PLHIV remained low in Kenya by the end of 2015. The USAID/Kenya and East Africa Afya Jijini project, which supports 42 TBHIV health facilities in Nairobi County, began addressing low uptake of IPT through Quality Improvement (QI) teams set up at the facility level. Quality is characterized by WHO as one of the four main connectors between health systems building blocks and health systems outputs. Afya Jijini implements the Kenya Quality Model for Health, which involves QI teams being formed at the county, sub-county and facility levels. The teams review facility performance to identify gaps in service delivery and use QI tools to monitor and improve performance. Afya Jijini supported the formation of these teams in 42 facilities and built the teams’ capacity to review data and use QI principles to identify and address performance gaps. When the QI teams began working on improving IPT uptake among PLHIV, uptake was at 31.8%. The teams first conducted a root cause analysis using cause and effect diagrams, which help the teams to brainstorm on and to identify barriers to IPT uptake among PLHIV at the facility level. This is a participatory process where program staff provides technical support to the QI teams in problem identification and problem-solving. The gaps identified were inadequate knowledge and skills on the use of IPT among health care workers, lack of awareness of IPT by patients, inadequate monitoring and evaluation tools, and poor quantification and forecasting of IPT commodities. In response, Afya Jijini trained over 300 health care workers on the administration of IPT, supported patient education, supported quantification and forecasting of IPT commodities, and provided IPT data collection tools to help facilities monitor their performance. The facility QI teams conducted monthly meetings to monitor progress on implementation of IPT and took corrective action when necessary. IPT uptake improved from 31.8% to 61.2% during the second year of the Afya Jijini project and improved to 80.1% during the third year of the project’s support. Use of QI teams and root cause analysis to identify and address service delivery gaps, in addition to targeted program interventions and continual performance reviews, can be successful in increasing TB related service delivery uptake at health facilities.

Keywords: isoniazid, quality, health care workers, people leaving with HIV

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Authors: Mahboobe Daneshvar

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Introduction: Clinical studies on the effect of systemic conditions on periodontal diseases have shown that some systemic deficiencies may provide grounds for the onset of periodontal diseases. One of these systemic problems is osteoporosis, which may be a risk factor for the onset and exacerbation of periodontitis. This study tends to evaluate periodontal indices in osteoporotic menopausal women and compare them with healthy controls. Materials and Methods: In this case-control study, participants included 45-75-year-old menopausal women referred to rheumatology wards of the Khatamolanbia Clinic and Shahid Sadoughi Hospital in Yazd; Their bone density was determined by DEXA-scan and by imaging the femoral-lumbar bone. Thirty patients with osteoporosis and 30 subjects with normal BMD were selected. Then, informed consent was obtained for participation in the study. During the clinical examinations, tooth loss (TL), plaque index (PI), gingival recession, pocket probing depth (PPD), clinical attachment loss (CAL), and tooth mobility (TM) were measured to evaluate the periodontal status. These clinical examinations were performed to determine the periodontal status by catheter, mirror and probe. Results: During the evaluation, there was no significant difference in PPD, PI, TM, gingival recession, and CAL between case and control groups (P-value>0.05); that is, osteoporosis has no effect on the above factors. These periodontal factors are almost the same in both healthy and patient groups. In the case of missing teeth, the following results were obtained: the mean of missing teeth was 22.173% of the total teeth in the case group and 18.583% of the total teeth in the control group. In the study of the missing teeth in the case and control groups, there was a significant relationship between case and control groups (P-value = 0.025). Conclusion: In fact, since periodontal disease is multifactorial and microbial plaque is the main cause, osteoporosis is considered a predisposing factor in exacerbation or persistence of periodontal disease. In patients with osteoporosis, usually pathological fractures, hormonal changes, and aging lead to reduced physical activity and affect oral health, which leads to the manifestation of periodontal disease. But this disease increases tooth loss by changing the shape and structure of bone trabeculae and weakening them. Osteoporosis does not seem to be a deterministic factor in the incidence of periodontal disease, since it affects bone quality rather than bone quantity.

Keywords: plaque index, Osteoporosis, tooth mobility, periodontal packet

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Authors: Pedro Gomes, Luís Sá Castelo, António Lopes, Marta Maio, Pedro Mota, Adélia Avelar, António Marques Dias

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Introduction: Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) has contributed to improvement of patient`s quality of life, although it has been associated with some complications including component loosening and polyethylene wear. To prevent these complications various fixation techniques have been employed. Hybrid TKA with cemented tibial and cementless femoral components have shown favourable outcomes, although it still lack of consensus in the literature. Objectives: To evaluate the clinical and radiographic results of hybrid versus cemented TKA with an average 5 years follow-up and analyse the survival rates. Methods: A retrospective study of 125 TKAs performed in 92 patients at our institution, between 2006 to 2008, with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. The same prosthesis was used in all knees. Hybrid TKA fixation was performed in 96 knees, with a mean follow-up of 4,8±1,7 years (range, 2–8,3 years) and 29 TKAs received fully cemented fixation with a mean follow-up of 4,9±1,9 years (range, 2-8,3 years). Selection for hybrid fixation was nonrandomized and based on femoral component fit. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS 0-48) was evaluated for clinical assessment and Knee Society Roentgenographic Evaluation Scoring System was used for radiographic outcome. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with failures defined as revision of either the tibial or femoral component for aseptic failures and all-causes (aseptic and infection). Analysis of survivorship data was performed using the log-rank test. SPSS (v22) was the computer program used for statistical analysis. Results: The hybrid group consisted of 72 females (75%) and 24 males (25%), with mean age 64±7 years (range, 50-78 years). The preoperative diagnosis was osteoarthritis (OA) in 94 knees (98%), rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in 1 knee (1%) and Posttraumatic arthritis (PTA) in 1 Knee (1%). The fully cemented group consisted of 23 females (79%) and 6 males (21%), with mean age 65±7 years (range, 47-78 years). The preoperative diagnosis was OA in 27 knees (93%), PTA in 2 knees (7%). The Oxford Knee Scores were similar between the 2 groups (hybrid 40,3±2,8 versus cemented 40,2±3). The percentage of radiolucencies seen on the femoral side was slightly higher in the cemented group 20,7% than the hybrid group 11,5% p0.223. In the cemented group there were significantly more Zone 4 radiolucencies compared to the hybrid group (13,8% versus 2,1% p0,026). Revisions for all causes were performed in 4 of the 96 hybrid TKAs (4,2%) and 1 of the 29 cemented TKAs (3,5%). The reason for revision was aseptic loosening in 3 hybrid TKAs and 1 of the cemented TKAs. Revision was performed for infection in 1 hybrid TKA. The hybrid group demonstrated a 7 years survival rate of 93% for all-cause failures and 94% for aseptic loosening. No significant difference in survivorship was seen between the groups for all-cause failures or aseptic failures. Conclusions: Hybrid TKA yields similar intermediate-term results and survival rates as fully cemented total knee arthroplasty and remains a viable option in knee joint replacement surgery.

Keywords: hybrid, survival rate, total knee arthroplasty, orthopaedic surgery

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Authors: Amine Alaoui Sanae, Tagjdid Reda, Loutfi Chafiqa, Melloul Merouane, Laloui Aziz, Touil Nadia, El Fahim, E. Mostafa

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Background: Rotavirus group A (RVA) strains with G8P[14] specificities are usually detected in calves and goats. However, these strains have been reported globally in humans and have often been characterized as originating from zoonotic transmissions, particularly in area where ruminants and humans live side-by-side. Whether human P[14] genotypes are two-way and can be transmitted to animal species remains to be established. Here we describe VP4 deduced amino-acid relationships of three Moroccan P[14] genotypes originating from different species and the receptiveness of an alpine goat to a human G8P[14] through an experimental infection. Material/methods: the human MA31 RVA strain was originally identified in a four years old girl presenting an acute gastroenteritis hospitalized at the pediatric care unit in Rabat Hospital in 2011. The virus was isolated and propagated in MA104 cells in the presence of trypsin. Ch_10S and 8045_S animal RVA strains were identified in fecal samples of a 2-week-old native goat and 3-week-old calf with diarrhea in 2011 in Bouaarfa and My Bousselham respectively. Genomic RNAs of all strains were subjected to a two-step RT-PCR and sequenced using the consensus primers VP4. The phylogenetic tree for MA31, Ch_10S and 8045_S VP4 and a set of published P[14] genotypes was constructed using MEGA6 software. The receptivity of MA31 strain by an eight month-old alpine goat was assayed. The animal was orally and intraperitonally inoculated with a dose of 8.5 TCID50 of virus stock at passage level 3. The shedding of the virus was tested by a real time RT-PCR assay. Results: The phylogenetic tree showed that the three Moroccan strains MA31, Ch_10S and 8045_S VP4 were highly related to each other (100% similar at the nucleotide level). They were clustered together with the B10925, Sp813, PA77 and P169 strains isolated in Belgium, Spain and Italy respectively. The Belgian strain B10925 was the most closely related to the Moroccan strains. In contrast, the 8045_S and Ch_10S strains were clustered distantly from the Tunisian calf strain B137 and the goat strain cap455 isolated in South Africa respectively. The human MA31 RVA strain was able to induce bloody diarrhea at 2 days post infection (dpi) in the alpine goat kid. RVA virus shedding started by 2 dpi (Ct value of 28) and continued until 5 dpi (Ct value of 25) with a concomitant elevation in the body temperature. Conclusions: Our study while limited to one animal, is the first study proving experimentally that a human P[14] genotype causes diarrhea and virus shedding in the goat. This result reinforce the potential role of inter- species transmission in generating novel and rare rotavirus strains such G8P[14] which infect humans.

Keywords: interspecies transmission, rotavirus, goat, human

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Authors: Bacha Zakaria

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This study aimed to investigate the reality of humane treatment and work environment problems for nurses in public hospitals and their repercussions on the patients arriving there. In this curve, our field study was based on a sample of nurses in Algiers hospitals estimated at 100 nurses. The questionnaire prepared by the two researchers was applied face to face with the nurses, and after obtaining and analyzing the data, we concluded the most important results: The presence of many problems in the work environment, such as work pressures, lack of appreciation, verbal and physical violence, risk of infection, poor salary and incentives, working during fatigue, administrative problems etc. And accordingly, The embodiment of humane dealing with patients requires providing a humane work environment for nurses and dealing with them humanely so that they embody positive behaviors while dealing with patients.

Keywords: nursing, future, family-focused care, health equity

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Authors: Wissem Abdaoui, Ilhem Mokhtari, Adel Gouri, Benouareth Djamel Eddine

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Contracted in a health facility, hospital-acquired infections are a major public health problem in recent years. The increase of nosocomial infections is partly related to diagnostic and therapeutic advances in medicine. The aim of our study was to isolate and diagnose some types of bacteria that are circulating in the hospital by performing different samples at two medical services: Pulmonary and Infectious Diseases. The antibiotic susceptibility tests were performed for bacterial isolates. The results have shown that there is a predominance of enterobacteria followed by the staphylococcus with its two species epidermidis ans saprophyticus. The study of the antibiogramme identified that some of these bacteria have a resistant profile against all the tested antibiotics. The fight against nosocomial infections is difficult because it must act on several factors: quality of care, safety of the hospital environment, hygiene, wearing gloves etc. are all areas that should be of heightened vigilance and preventive measures.

Keywords: nosocomial infection, isolation, identification, sensitivity and resistance to antibiotics

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Authors: B. B. S. Pereira, M. O. Souza, L. P. Zanetti, L. C. S. Oliveira, J. R. P. Moreno, M. P. Souza, V. R. Colturato, C. M. Machado

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Background: The introduction of prophylactic or preemptive therapies has effectively decreased the CMV mortality rates after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). CMV antigenemia (pp65) or quantitative PCR are methods currently approved for CMV surveillance in pre-emptive strategies. Commercial assays are preferred as cut-off levels defined by in-house assays may vary among different protocols and in general show low reproducibility. Moreover, comparison of published data among different centers is only possible if international standards of quantification are included in the assays. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) established the first international standard for CMV detection. The real time PCR COBAS Ampliprep/ CobasTaqMan (CAP/CTM) (Roche®) was developed using the WHO standard for CMV quantification. However, the cut-off for the introduction of antiviral has not been determined yet. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study to determine: 1) the sensitivity and specificity of the new CMV CAP/CTM test in comparison with pp65 antigenemia to detect episodes of CMV infection/reactivation, and 2) the cut-off of viral load for introduction of ganciclovir (GCV). Pp65 antigenemia was performed and the corresponding plasma samples were stored at -20°C for further CMV detection by CAP/CTM. Comparison of tests was performed by kappa index. The appearance of positive antigenemia was considered the state variable to determine the cut-off of CMV viral load by ROC curve. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 19 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA.). Results: Thirty-eight patients were included and followed from August 2014 through May 2015. The antigenemia test detected 53 episodes of CMV infection in 34 patients (89.5%), while CAP/CTM detected 37 episodes in 33 patients (86.8%). AG and PCR results were compared in 431 samples and Kappa index was 30.9%. The median time for first AG detection was 42 (28-140) days, while CAP/CTM detected at a median of 7 days earlier (34 days, ranging from 7 to 110 days). The optimum cut-off value of CMV DNA was 34.25 IU/mL to detect positive antigenemia with 88.2% of sensibility, 100% of specificity and AUC of 0.91. This cut-off value is below the limit of detection and quantification of the equipment which is 56 IU/mL. According to CMV recurrence definition, 16 episodes of CMV recurrence were detected by antigenemia (47.1%) and 4 (12.1%) by CAP/CTM. The duration of viremia as detected by antigenemia was shorter (60.5% of the episodes lasted ≤ 7 days) in comparison to CAP/CTM (57.9% of the episodes lasting 15 days or more). This data suggests that the use of antigenemia to define the duration of GCV therapy might prompt early interruption of antiviral, which may favor CMV reactivation. The CAP/CTM PCR could possibly provide a safer information concerning the duration of GCV therapy. As prolonged treatment may increase the risk of toxicity, this hypothesis should be confirmed in prospective trials. Conclusions: Even though CAP/CTM by ROCHE showed great qualitative correlation with the antigenemia technique, the fully automated CAP/CTM did not demonstrate increased sensitivity. The cut-off value below the limit of detection and quantification may result in delayed introduction of pre-emptive therapy.

Keywords: antigenemia, CMV COBAS/TAQMAN, cytomegalovirus, antiviral cut-off

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Authors: E. Akdur Öztürk, F. İrvasa Bilgiç, A. Ludovisi , O. Gülbahar, D. Dirim Erdoğan, M. Korkmaz, M. Á. Gómez Morales

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Anisakidosis is a zoonotic human fish-borne parasitic disease caused by accidental ingestion of anisakid third-stage larvae (L3) of members of the Anisakidae family present in infected marine fish or cephalopods. Infection with anisakid larvae can lead to gastric, intestinal, extra-gastrointestinal and gastroallergic forms of the disease. Anisakid parasites have been reported in almost all seas, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea. There is a remarkably high level of risk exposure to these zoonotic parasites as they are present in economically and ecologically important fish of Europe. Anisakid L3 larvae have been also detected in several fish species from the Aegean Sea. Turkey is a peninsular country surrounded by Black, Aegean and the Mediterranean Sea. In this country, fishing habit and fishery product consumption are highly common. In recent years, there was also an increase in the consumption of raw fish due to the increasing interest in the cuisine of the Far East countries. In different regions of Turkey, A. simplex (inMerluccius Merluccius Scomber japonicus, Trachurus mediterraneus, Sardina pilchardus, Engraulis encrasicolus, etc.), Anisakis spp., Contraceucum spp., Pseudoterronova spp. and, C. aduncum were identified as well. Although it is accepted both the presence of anisakid parasites in fish and fishery products in Turkey and the presence of Turkish people with allergic manifestations after fish consumption, there are no reports of human anisakiasis in this country. Given the high prevalence of anisakid parasites in the country, the absence of reports is likely not due to the absence of clinical cases rather to the unavailability of diagnostic tools and the low awareness of the presence of this infection. The aim of the study was to set up an IgE-Western Blot (WB) based test to detect the anisakidosis sensitization among Turkish people with a history of allergic manifestation related to fish consumption. To this end, crude worm antigens (CWA) and allergen enriched fraction (50-66% ) were prepared from L3 of A. simplex (s.l.) collected from Lepidopus caudatus fished in the Mediterranean Sea. These proteins were electrophoretically separated and transferred into the nitrocellulose membranes. By WB, specific proteins recognized by positive control serum samples from sensitized patients were visualized on nitrocellulose membranes by a colorimetric reaction. The CWA and 50–66% fraction showed specific bands, mainly due to Ani s 1 (20-22 kD) and Ani s 4 (9-10 kD). So far, a total of 7 serum samples from people with allergic manifestation and positive skin prick test (SPT) after fish consumption, have been tested and all of them resulted negative by WB, indicating the lack of sensitization to anisakids. This preliminary study allowed to set up a specific test and evidence the lack of correlation between both tests, SPT and WB. However, the sample size should be increased to estimate the anisakidosis burden in Turkish people.

Keywords: anisakidosis, fish parasite, serodiagnosis, Turkey

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Authors: Wiesława Klimek-Piotrowska, Mateusz K. Hołda, Mateusz Koziej, Katarzyna Piątek, Jakub Hołda

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Introduction: The coronary sinus venous system (CSVS), which has always been overshadowed by the coronary arterial tree, has recently begun to attract more attention. Since it is a target for clinicians the knowledge of its anatomy is essential. Cardiac resynchronization therapy, catheter ablation of cardiac arrhythmias, defibrillation, perfusion therapy, mitral valve annuloplasty, targeted drug delivery, and retrograde cardioplegia administration are commonly used therapeutic methods involving the CSVS. The great variability in the course of coronary veins and tributaries makes the diagnostic and therapeutic processes difficult. Our aim was to investigate detailed anatomy of most common clinically used CSVS`s structures: the coronary sinus with its ostium, great cardiac vein, posterior vein of the left ventricle, middle cardiac vein and oblique vein of the left atrium. Methodology: This is a prospective study of 70 randomly selected autopsied hearts dissected from adult humans (Caucasian) aged 50.1±17.6 years old (24.3% females) with BMI=27.6±6.7 kg/m2. The morphology of the CSVS was assessed as well as its precise measurements were performed. Results: The coronary sinus (CS) with its ostium was present in all hearts. The mean CS ostium diameter was 9.9±2.5mm. Considered ostium was covered by its valve in 87.1% with mean valve height amounted 5.1±3.1mm. The mean percentage coverage of the CS ostium by the valve was 56%. The Vieussens valve was present in 71.4% and was unicuspid in 70%, bicuspid in 26% and tricuspid in 4% of hearts. The great cardiac vein was present in all cases. The oblique vein of the left atrium was observed in 84.3% of hearts with mean length amounted 20.2±9.3mm and mean ostium diameter 1.4±0.9mm. The average length of the CS (from the CS ostium to the Vieussens valve) was 31.1±9.5mm or (from the CS ostium to the ostium of the oblique vein of the left atrium) 28.9±10.1mm and both were correlated with the heart weight (r=0.47; p=0.00 and r=0.38; p=0.006 respectively). In 90.5% the ostium of the oblique vein of the left atrium was located proximally to the Vieussens valve, in remaining cases was distally. The middle cardiac vein was present in all hearts and its valve was noticed in more than half of all the cases (52.9%). The posterior vein of the left ventricle was observed in 91.4% of cases. Conclusions: The CSVS is vastly variable and none of basic hearts parameters is a good predictor of its morphology. The Vieussens valve could be a significant obstacle during CS cannulation. Caution should be exercised in this area to avoid coronary sinus perforation. Because of the higher incidence of the presence of the oblique vein of the left atrium than the Vieussens valve, the vein orifice is more useful in determining the CS length.

Keywords: cardiac resynchronization therapy, coronary sinus, Thebesian valve, Vieussens valve

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Authors: Khaled Khleifat

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This study detects the bacterial species that responsible for UTI in both diabetic patients and non-diabetic patients, Jordan. 116 urine samples were investigated in order to determine UTI-causing bacteria. These samples distributed unequally between diabetic male (12) and diabetic female (25) and also non-diabetic male (13) and non-diabetic female (66). The results represent that E.coli is responsible for UTI in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients (15.5% and 29.3% respectively) with large proportion (44.8%). This study showed that not all bacterial species that isolated from the non-diabetic sample could be isolated from diabetic samples. E. coli (15.5%), P. aeruginosa (4.3%), K. pneumonia (1.7%), P. mirabilis (2.6%), S. marcescens (0.9%), S. aureus (1.7%), S. pyogenes (1.7%), E. faecalis (0.9%), S. epidermidis (1.7%) and S. saprophyticus (0.9%). But E. aerogenes, E. cloacae, C. freundii, A. baumannii and B. subtilis are five bacterial species that can’t isolate from all diabetic samples. This study shows that for the treatment of UTI in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients, Chloramphenicol (30 μg), Ciprofloxacin (5 μg) and Vancomycin (30 μg) are more favorable than other antibiotics. In the same time, Cephalothin (30μg) is not recommended.

Keywords: urinary tract infections, diabetes mellitus, bacterial species, infections

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Authors: Yawen Xia, Rubi Yang, Jing Zhao

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We examine the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) decision-making of companies during turbulent times like COVID-19. We find that firms’ ESG reputation risk comove with their industry and local peers, suggesting that managers may follow their industry and local counterparts in engaging in irresponsible activities. Moreover, the comovement in reputation risk is attenuated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further analyses suggest that the reduction in comovement varies by state-level partisanship and death rate during the pandemic. Comovement in reputation risk declines more significantly in the Democratic states with stringent social distancing policies and in states with higher infection severity. Our findings suggest that social distancing provisions during COVID-19 may lead to a reduction in social activities and information sharing among enterprise managers.

Keywords: ESG, Covid, peer pressure, local comovement, orporate governance

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Authors: N. Zeinalzadeh, Mahdi Sadeghi

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Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is the most common cause of non-inflammatory diarrhea in the developing countries, resulting in approximately 20% of all diarrheal episodes in children in these areas. ST is one of the most important virulence factors and CFA/I is one of the frequent colonization factors that help to process of ETEC infection. ST and CfaB (CFA/I subunit) are among vaccine candidates against ETEC. So, ST because of its small size is not a good immunogenic in the natural form. However to increase its immunogenic potential, here we explored candidate positions for ST insertion in CfaB sequence. After bioinformatics analysis, one of the candidate positions was selected and the chimeric gene (cfaB*st) sequence was synthesized and expressed in E. coli BL21 (DE3). The chimeric recombinant protein was purified with Ni-NTA columns and characterized with western blot analysis. The residue 74-75 of CfaB sequence could be a good candidate position for ST and other epitopes insertion.

Keywords: bioinformatics, CFA/I, enterotoxigenic E. coli, ST toxoid

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Authors: Fitri Rahmi Fadhilah, Edhyana Sahiratmadja, Ani Melani Maskoen, Ratu Safitri, Supartini Syarif, Herman Susanto

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Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer in women after breast cancer. In Indonesia, the incidence of cervical cancer cases is estimated at 25-40 per 100,000 women per year. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a major cause of cervical cancer, and HPV-16 is the most common genotype that infects the cervical tissue. The major late protein L1 may be associated with infectivity and pathogenicity and its variation can be used to classify HPV isolates. The aim of this study was to determine the phylogenetic tree of HPV 16 L1 gene from cervical cancer patient isolates in Bandung. After confirming HPV-16 by Linear Array Genotyping Test, L1 gene was amplified using specific primers and subject for sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that HPV 16 from Bandung was in the subgroup of Asia and East Asia, showing the close host-agent relationship among the Asian type.

Keywords: L1 HPV 16, cervical cancer, bandung, phylogenetic

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Authors: Launcelot McGrath

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The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly around the world, resulting in high mortality rates and very large numbers of people requiring medical treatment in ICU. Management of patient hospitalisation is a critical aspect to control this disease and reduce chaos in the healthcare systems. Remote monitoring provides a solution to protect vulnerable and elderly high-risk patients. Continuous remote monitoring of oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, heart rate, and temperature, etc., provides medical systems with up-to-the-minute information about their patients' statuses. Remote monitoring also limits the spread of infection by reducing hospital overcrowding. This paper examines the potential of remote monitoring for Covid-19 to assist in the rapid identification of patients at risk, facilitate the detection of patient deterioration, and enable early interventions.

Keywords: remote monitoring, patient care, oxygen saturation, Covid-19, hospital management

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Authors: Jenny Kwon

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Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic globally, another type of pandemic, ageism, appeared on the surface. Ageism, the stereotypes, prejudice, and discrimination directed towards others or oneself based on chronological age, has adversely impacted older adults' lives during the pandemic. In the short term, older adults struggled with health issues (e.g., high rate of infection and mortality) and experienced social disconnection (e.g., loneliness and depression). Ultimately, older adults' self-perceptions of aging, self-esteem and intergenerational relationships were negatively influenced. To closely look into the impact of ageism during the pandemic on U.S. older adults' aging process, the current study has three specific purposes. First, the study introduces a theoretical foundation (i.e., stereotype embodiment theory) in the development of ageism research. Second, the study reports on examples of ageism toward U.S. older adults manifested in the context of COVID-19. Finally, collective responsibilities and future research directions are proposed to fight against ageism.

Keywords: ageism, COVID-19, older adults, pandemic, stereotype embodiment

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Authors: Hassan Waseem

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Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is ubiquitously distributed viral agent responsible for different clinical manifestations that may vary according to the immunologic status of the patient. CMV can cause morbidity and mortality among fetuses and patients with compromised immune system. A cross-sectional study was carried out in Islamabad to investigate the prevalence and risk factors associated with CMV infection among pregnant women. Blood samples of 172 pregnant women visiting Mother and Child Healthcare, Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) Islamabad were taken. In present study, serum samples of the women were checked for CMV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Clinical, obstetrical and socio-demographical characteristics of the women were collected by using structured questionnaires. Out of 172 pregnant women included in the study, 171 (99.4%) were CMV specific IgG positive and 30 (17.4%) were found positive for CMV-IgM antibodies. The CMV has taken an endemic form in Pakistan so, routine screening of CMV among pregnant women is recommended.

Keywords: Cytomegalovirus, blood transfusion, ELISA, seroprevalence

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Authors: Asmaa M. Hussein, Amr Wassal, Ahmed Farouk Al-Sadek, A. F. Abd El-Rahman

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In this study, a multivariate analysis of potato spectroscopic data was presented to detect the presence of brown rot disease or not. Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (1,350-2,500 nm) combined with multivariate analysis was used as a rapid, non-destructive technique for the detection of brown rot disease in potatoes. Spectral measurements were performed in 565 samples, which were chosen randomly at the infection place in the potato slice. In this study, 254 infected and 311 uninfected (brown rot-free) samples were analyzed using different advanced statistical analysis techniques. The discrimination performance of different multivariate analysis techniques, including classification, pre-processing, and dimension reduction, were compared. Applying a random forest algorithm classifier with different pre-processing techniques to raw spectra had the best performance as the total classification accuracy of 98.7% was achieved in discriminating infected potatoes from control.

Keywords: Brown rot disease, NIR spectroscopy, potato, random forest

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Authors: Djamila Chabane, Asma Rouane, Karim Arab

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Depending of the chemical substances responsible for the pharmacological effects, a future therapeutic drug might be produced by extraction from whole plants or by callus initiated from some parts. The optimized callus culture protocols now offer the possibility to use cell culture techniques for vegetative propagation and open minds for further studies on secondary metabolites and drug establishment. In Algerian traditional medicine, Pulicaria incisa (Asteraceae) is used in the treatment of daily troubles (stomachache, headhache., cold, sore throat and rheumatic arthralgia). Field findings revealed that many healers use some fresh parts (leaves, flowers) of this plant to treat skin wounds. This study aims to evaluate the healing efficiency of artisanal cream prepared from sticky mucilage isolated from calluses on dermal wounds of animal models. Callus cultures were initiated from reproductive explants (young inflorescences) excised from adult plants and transferred to a MS basal medium supplemented with growth regulators and maintained under dark for for months. Many calluses types were obtained with various color and aspect (friable, compact). Several subcultures of calli were performed to enhance the mucilage accumulation. After extraction, the mucilage extracts were tested on animal models as follows. The wound healing potential was studied by causing dermal wounds (1 cm diameter) at the dorsolumbar part of Rattus norvegicus; different samples of the cream were applied after hair removal on three rats each, including two controls (one treated by Vaseline and one without any treatment), two experimental groups (experimental group 1, treated with a reference ointment "Madecassol® and experimental group 2 treated by callus mucilage cream for a period of seventeen days. The evolution of the healing activity was estimated by calculating the percentage reduction of the area wounds treated by all compounds tested compared to the controls by using AutoCAD software. The percentage of healing effect of the cream prepared from callus mucilage was (99.79%) compared to that of Madecassol® (99.76%). For the treatment time, the significant healing activity was observed after 17 days compared to that of the reference pharmaceutical products without any wound infection. The healing effect of Madecassol® is more effective because it stimulates and regulates the production of collagen, a fibrous matrix essential for wound healing. Mucilage extracts also showed a high capacity to heal the skin without any infection. According to this pharmacological activity, we suggest to use calluses produced by in vitro culture to producing new compounds for the skin care and treatment.

Keywords: calluses, Pulicaria incisa, mucilage, Wounds

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Authors: Sara Mahmood, Omar Ahmed, Youssef Aladham, Moustafa Abdelnaby

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The varied complications of COVID-19 present an ongoing challenge to healthcare professionals. A rare presentation of complicated sinusitis with pre-septal cellulitis and hard palatal necrosis in a COVID-19 patient, was reported. A 52-year-old male was admitted to the hospital with typical COVID manifestations where he had two successive COVID-19 positive swabs. During his admission, he developed symptoms of right orbital complications of sinusitis along with both clinical and radiological evidence of ipsilateral hard palatal necrosis. Imaging confirmed a diagnosis of right pan-sinusitis complicated with right pre-septal infection and hard palatal bony defect on the same side. Intra-operatively, the sphenopalatine artery was found to be thrombosed. This case focuses on the possible association between these manifestations and the known thromboembolic complications of COVID-19. Ongoing management of such complicated rare cases should be through a multidisciplinary team.

Keywords: COVID-19, sinusitis, sphenopalatine artery, thrombosis

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Authors: Neda Valizadeh, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani, Arvin Najafi

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Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the association of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP), procalcitonin (PCT), proendothelin-1 (proET-1) levels with sepsis severity in Emergency ward patients. Materials and Methods: We assessed the predictive value of MRproANP, PCT, copeptin, and proET-1 in early sepsis among patients referring to the emergency ward with a suspected sepsis. Results-132 patients were enrolled in this study. 45 (34%) patients had a final diagnosis of sepsis. A higher percentage of patients with definite sepsis had systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria at initial visit in comparison with no-sepsis patients (P<0.05) and were admitted to the hospital (P<0.05). PCT levels were higher in sepsis patients [P<0.05]. There was no significant differences for MRproANP or proET-1 in sepsis patients (P=0.47). Conclusion: A combination of SIRS criteria and PCT levels is beneficial for the early sepsis diagnosis in emergency ward patients with a suspicious infection disease.

Keywords: emergency, prolactin, sepsis, biomarkers

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Authors: Paresh M. Patel, Amit A. Patel, R. H. Parikh

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The present investigation was undertaken to fabricate modified transport fluconazole that belongs to BCS class II and have a poor applicability on topical infection. So to improve topical application, transdermal spray could play a vital role by using ethyl cellulose and Eudragit® S100 as film-forming polymers. Concentration of Eudragit® S100, ethyl cellulose and permeation enhancer (camphor and menthol) were selected as independent variables, whereas drying time, viscosity and in-vitro drug release were selected as dependent variables in factorial design. The viscosity, drying time and in-vitro drug release of the optimize batch B15 was 40.1 cps, 47 sec. and 90.79% respectively. The film of optimized batch was flexible and dermal-adhesive.

Keywords: Eudragit, ethyl cellulose, fluconazole, transdermal spray

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Authors: O. Sauperl, L. Fras Zemljic

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The textile industry is gaining increasing importance in the field of medical materials. Therefore, presented research is focused on textile materials for external (out-of-body) use. Such materials could be various hygienic textile products (diapers, tampons, sanitary napkins, incontinence products, etc.), protective textiles and various hospital linens (surgical covers, masks, gowns, cloths, bed linens, etc.) wound pillows, bandages, orthopedic socks, etc. Function of tampons and sanitary napkins is not only to provide protection during the menstrual cycle, but their function can be also to take care of physiological or pathological vaginal discharge. In general, women's intimate areas are against infection protected by a low pH value of the vaginal flora. High pH inhibits the development of harmful microorganisms, as it is difficult to be reproduced in an acidic environment. The normal vaginal flora in healthy women is highly colonized by lactobacilli. The lactic acid produced by these organisms maintains the constant acidity of the vagina. If the balance of natural protection breaks, infections can occur. In the market, there exist probiotic tampons as a medical product supplying the vagina with beneficial probiotic lactobacilli. But, many users have concerns about the use of tampons due to the possible dry-out of the vagina as well as the possible toxic shock syndrome, which is the reason that they use mainly sanitary napkins during the menstrual cycle. Functionalization of sanitary napkins with probiotics is, therefore, interesting in regard to maintain a healthy vaginal flora and to offer to users added value of the sanitary napkins in the sense of health- and environmentally-friendly products. For this reason, the presented research is oriented in functionalization of the sanitary napkins with the probiotic paste in order to activate the lactic acid bacteria presented in the core of the functionalized sanitary napkin at the time of the contact with the menstrual fluid. In this way, lactobacilli could penetrate into vagina and by maintaining healthy vaginal flora to reduce the risk of vaginal disorders. In regard to the targeted research problem, the influence of probiotic paste applied onto cotton hygienic napkins on selected properties was studied. The aim of the research was to determine whether the sanitary napkins with the applied probiotic paste may assure suitable vaginal pH to maintain a healthy vaginal flora during the use of this product. Together with this, sorption properties of probiotic functionalized sanitary napkins were evaluated and compared to the untreated one. The research itself was carried out on the basis of tracking and controlling the input parameters, currently defined by Slovenian producer (Tosama d.o.o.) as the most important. Successful functionalization of sanitary pads with the probiotic paste was confirmed by ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. Results of the methods used within the presented research show that the absorption of the pads treated with probiotic paste deteriorates compared to non-treated ones. The coating shows a 6-month stability. Functionalization of sanitary pads with probiotic paste is believed to have a commercial potential for lowering the probability of infection during the menstrual cycle.

Keywords: functionalization, probiotic paste, sanitary pads, textile materials

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Indriyani Nur, Yusnaini

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Lobster cultures have failed because of mortalities associated with parasitic and fungal infections. Monitoring of spawned eggs and larva of bamboo lobsters, Panulirus versicolour, and ornate lobsters, P. ornatus, in a hatchery, was conducted in order to characterize fungal and parasitic diseases of eggs and larva. One species of protozoan parasite (Vorticella sp.) was identified from larvae while two species of fungi (Lagenidium sp. and Haliphthoros sp.) were found on eggs. Furthermore, adult lobsters cultured in floating net cage had burning-like diseases on their pleopod, uropod, and telson. Histopathological samples were collected for parasite and tissue changes. There were two parasites found to infect lobsters on external body and gill which are Octolasmis sp. and Oodinium sp. Histopathology showed tissue changes which are necrosis on hepatopancreas, necrosis in the gills and around the uropods and telson.

Keywords: fungal, histopathology, lobster, parasite, infection

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Authors: Nqobile Muleya, Winston Garira, Godwin Mchau

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Citrus Black Spot (CBS) is a fungal disease that is responsible for huge economical loss and poses a threat to the citrus industry worldwide. We construct a mathematical model framework for citrus black spot between fruits to characterise the dynamics of the disease development, paying attention to the pathogen life cycle. We have made an observation from the model analysis that the initial inoculum from ascomata is very important for disease development and thereafter it is no longer important due to conidia which is responsible for secondary infection. Most importantly, the model indicated that ascospores and conidia are very important parameters in developing citrus black spot within a short distance. The basic reproductive number and its importance in relation to citrus black spot persistence are outlined. A numerical simulation of the model was done to explain the theoretical findings.

Keywords: epidemiological modelling, Guidnardia citricarpa, life cycle stage, fungal, disease development

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: N. G. Klivleyeva, T. I. Glebova, G. V. Lukmanova, S. B. Bayseit, S. Z. Taubaeva, M. K. Kalkozhaeva

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The role of viral diseases in the general infectious disease incidence increases every year and requires special attention to the problem of interpreting the etiology of infectious agents. Influenza and acute respiratory viral infections are one of the most pressing public health issues. In the period 2012-2014, collection of 419 nasal swabs and 150 blood sera has been carried out in the patient care institutions of the various Kazakhstan regions from patients with symptoms of ARVI and pneumonia. Primary identification of biosamples for the presence of influenza viral antigens in enzyme immunoassay on nitrocellulose membrane gave positive results in 125 swabs (29.8%). Biosample screening in immunofluorescence test revealed the presence of influenza viral antigens against A/H1 in 63 samples (15.0%), A/H3 – in 70 samples (16.7%) and type B – in 9 samples (2.1%). As a result of primary infection, and successive passages in chick embryos and MDCK cell cultures, 38 HAAg were isolated from 419 samples with a clear cytopathic effect and hemagglutination titre in MDCK cell culture within 1:2-1:4, in CE - 1:8-1:256. The infectivity of isolates in chicken embryos were 3.5-6.5 lg EID50/0.2, in MDCK cell culture – 2.5-6.5 lg PFU/ml. Identification of 28 isolates was carried out in inhibition reactions of hemagglutinating activity and neuraminidase activity, showed their belonging to the influenza virus: 26 strains to A/H1N1, one - to A/H3N2, and one - to type B. Serological examination of blood sera for the presence of specific antibodies being an indirect evidence of the performed isolation and contributing to the timely interpretation of the disease etiology in the epidemics takes an important place in the comprehensive study of influenza viruses circulating among people. Serological analyzes were carried out in HAI assay using a kit consisting of 12 reference strains obtained from the WHO centre for reference and research on Influenza (CDC, Atlanta, USA) and three Kazakhstan (A/Almaty/347/09 (H1N1v), A/Almaty/462/11 (H3N2) and B/Almaty/414/10) human influenza viruses that are stored in the laboratory collection. The results of serological analysis of 150 blood sera showed that antihaemagglutinins against the A/H3N2 virus serosubtype were found in 46 samples (49.4%) out of 93 sera collected in 2012-2013. The antibody titres were within 1:160-1:320. 19 sera (20.4%) were seropositive against influenza A/H1N1 virus, the antibodies were observed in titres of 1:20-1:40. Six sera (6.4%) were positive against the influenza A/H1N1+A/H3N2 virus (mixed infection); the antibodies were recorded in titres of 1:20-1:40. Antihaemagglutinins against influenza type B virus were detected only in five sera (5.4%). The results of analysis of 57 sera collected in 2014 showed that antihaemagglutinins against A/H3N2 virus subtype were detected in 32 blood sera (56.1%) in titres of 1:160-1:640. Ten sera (17.5%) were seropositive against A/H1N1 virus; antihaemagglutinins against influenza type B virus were not detected. Therefore, virological and serological studies have shown that in Kazakhstan, as well as in the world, the influenza viruses A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and influenza B viruses were actively circulating during the epidemic seasons in 2012-2014.

Keywords: influenza, MDCK cell, serological analysis, virus

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 152