Search results for: epidemiological modelling

Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

Abstract:

We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

Abstract:

We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Nqobile Muleya, Winston Garira, Godwin Mchau

Abstract:

Citrus Black Spot (CBS) is a fungal disease that is responsible for huge economical loss and poses a threat to the citrus industry worldwide. We construct a mathematical model framework for citrus black spot between fruits to characterise the dynamics of the disease development, paying attention to the pathogen life cycle. We have made an observation from the model analysis that the initial inoculum from ascomata is very important for disease development and thereafter it is no longer important due to conidia which is responsible for secondary infection. Most importantly, the model indicated that ascospores and conidia are very important parameters in developing citrus black spot within a short distance. The basic reproductive number and its importance in relation to citrus black spot persistence are outlined. A numerical simulation of the model was done to explain the theoretical findings.

Keywords: epidemiological modelling, Guidnardia citricarpa, life cycle stage, fungal, disease development

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

Abstract:

The proliferation of social media platforms like Twitter has heightened the consequences of the spread of misinformation. To understand and model the spread of misinformation, in this paper, we leveraged the SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics) epidemiological model to describe the underlying process that delineates the spread of misinformation on Twitter. Compared to the other epidemiological models, this model produces broader results because it includes the additional Skeptics (Z) compartment, wherein a user may be Exposed to an item of misinformation but not engage in any reaction to it, and the additional Exposed (E) compartment, wherein the user may need some time before deciding to spread a misinformation item. We analyzed misinformation regarding the unrest in Washington, D.C. in the month of March 2020, which was propagated by the use of the #DCblackout hashtag by different users across the U.S. on Twitter. Our analysis shows that misinformation can be modeled using the concept of epidemiology. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to attempt to apply the SEIZ epidemiological model to the spread of a specific item of misinformation, which is a category distinct from that of rumor and hoax on online social media platforms. Applying a mathematical model can help to understand the trends and dynamics of the spread of misinformation on Twitter and ultimately help to develop techniques to quickly identify and control it.

Keywords: Black Lives Matter, epidemiological model, mathematical modeling, misinformation, SEIZ model, Twitter

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Muhammad Asim Nazir

Abstract:

The investigations reported in this manuscript were carried on the screening of one hundred and seventy-eight chickpea germplasm lines/cultivars against wilt disease, caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris. The screening was conducted in vivo (field) conditions. The field screening was accompanied with the study of some epidemiological factors affecting the occurrence and severity of the disease. Among the epidemiological factors maximum temperature range (28-40°C), minimum temperature range (12-24°C), relative humidity (19-44%), soil temperature (26-41°C) and soil moisture range (19-34°C) was studied for affecting the disease incidence/severity. The results revealed that air temperature was positively correlated with diseases. Soil temperature data revealed that in all cultivars disease incidence was maximum as 39°C. Most of the plants show 40-50% disease incidence. Disease incidence decreased at 33.5°C. The result of correlation of relative humidity of air and wilt incidence revealed that all cultivars/lines were negatively correlated with relative humidity. With increasing relative humidity wilt incidence decreased and vice versa.

Keywords: chickpea, epidemiological, screening, disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 612

Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

Abstract:

This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Sophonie Sarielle Jean Jacques Bertrand

Abstract:

Background: Acute flaccid paralysis (PFA) is the sudden weakness or paralysis of muscles seen in children under 15 years of age. According to the WHO, PFA remains a real public health problem. For Haiti, the PFA represents a national priority. This study aims to describe the epidemiological profile of cases of Acute Flaccid Paralysis (PFA) in Haiti from 2018-2020. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study covering the period of 2018-2021 was carried out. epidemiological surveillance data PFA exported to Integrated Monitoring Evaluation Surveillance (MESI) were used. Sociodemographic variables were studied. Prevalence and clinical mortality rate were calculated. Epi Info 7.2 and Excel 2016 were used for data analysis. Results: 76 AFP cases were recorded for the period, or 13 (17%) in 2018, 23 (30%) in 2019, 8 (11%) in 2020 32 (42%) in 2021. Children aged 5-14 years accounted for 36% of cases (n= 26). The M/F sex ratio was 0.52, with a predominance of the female sex. The clinical mortality rate was 2.6%. The prevalence was 1.77/100,000 people. Conclusion: From 2018-2021, 76 cases of PFA cases were recorded in the 10 departments of the country, of which the West department was the most affected. Maintaining high vaccination coverage and a standard acute flaccid paralysis surveillance system are essential for the eradication of this condition. Strengthen epidemiological surveillance of PFA.

Keywords: epidemiology, PFA, Haïti, MESI

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

Abstract:

This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Magdalena Barbara Kaziuk

Abstract:

Introduction: In December 2019, the first case of an acute infectious disease of the respiratory system caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was recorded in Wuhan in Central China. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization restrictions, among others, in the travel industry. Aim: The aim of the study was the assessment of the preparedness of European cultural institutions and catering establishments within the sanitary and epidemiological dimension during the COVID-19 pandemic by Polish tourists and their sense of safety in selected destinations. Material and methods: The study involved 300 Polish tourists (125 females, 175 males, age 46.5+/-12.9 years) who traveled during the COVID-19 pandemic to Southern European countries. 5 most popular travel destinations were selected: Italy, Austria, Greece, Croatia, and Mediterranean islands. The tourists assessed cultural institutions and catering establishments with the use of a proprietary questionnaire which concerned the preparedness regarding the sanitary and epidemiological requirements and the tourists' sense of safety. The number of respondents was deliberate - 60 persons per each country. Results: The more stringent sanitary regimes, the higher the sense of safety in the study group of females aged 45-50 (p<0.005), while the more stringent sanitary and epidemiological issues are implemented, the shorter the stay (p<0.001). Less stringent restrictions resulted in increased sense of freedom and mental rest in the group of studied males (p<0.005). Conclusions: The respondents' opinions revealed that the highest level of safety with regard to sanitary and epidemiological requirements (masks covering mouth and nose worn by both personnel and society, the necessity to present the COVID passport, the possibility to disinfect hands) was observed in Austria and Italy, while shorter length of the stay in these countries resulted from high prices, particularly in catering establishments. According to the respondents, less stringent restrictions, among others lack of the necessity to own the COVID passport, were linked to Croatia and Mediterranean islands. The sense of safety was satisfying, while the sense of freedom and mental rest was high. declared a string of COVID-19 cases a pandemic. Most countries implemented numerous sanitary and epidemiological

Keywords: sanitary and epidemiological regimes, tourist facilities, COVID-19 pandemic, sense of safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Conrad Weber

Abstract:

The modelling of railway noise over large projects areas can be very time consuming in terms of preparing the noise models and calculation time. An open-source GIS program has been utilised to assist with the modelling of operational noise levels for 675km of railway corridor. A range of GIS algorithms were utilised to break up the noise model area into manageable calculation sizes. GIS was utilised to prepare and filter a range of noise modelling inputs, including building files, land uses and ground terrain. A spreadsheet was utilised to manage the accuracy of key input parameters, including train speeds, train types, curve corrections, bridge corrections and engine notch settings. GIS was utilised to present the final noise modelling results. This paper explains the noise modelling process and how the spreadsheet and GIS were utilised to accurately model this massive project efficiently.

Keywords: noise, modeling, GIS, rail

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Yusuf S. Dambatta, Ahmed A. D. Sarhan

Abstract:

Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the most prominent rapid prototyping (RP) technologies which is being used to efficiently fabricate CAD 3D geometric models. However, the process is coupled with many drawbacks, of which the surface quality of the manufactured RP parts is among. Hence, studies relating to improving the surface roughness have been a key issue in the field of RP research. In this work, a technique of modelling the surface roughness in FDM is presented. Using experimentally measured surface roughness response of the FDM parts, an ANFIS prediction model was developed to obtain the surface roughness in the FDM parts using the main critical process parameters that affects the surface quality. The ANFIS model was validated and compared with experimental test results.

Keywords: surface roughness, fused deposition modelling (FDM), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), orientation

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: P. Agnivesh, P. V. Ponambala Moorthi

Abstract:

Evolution of information modelling leads to the visualisation of well-organized built environment. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is considered as evolution in the off-site construction which essentially enhances and controls the present scenario of on-site construction paradigms. Promptness, sustainability and security are considered as the important characteristics of the building information modelling. Projects that uses BIM are tied firmly by technology but distributed organizationally. This allows different team members in the project to associate and integrate the works and work flows. This will in turn improve the efficiency of work breakdown structure. Internationally BIM had been accepted as modern computer aided way of information sharing by construction industry for efficient way of manipulation in order to avoid the on-site misperceptions. Even though, in developing countries like India BIM is in the phase of start and requires lot of mandates and policies to be brought about by the government for its widespread implementations. This paper reviews the current scenario of BIM worldwide and in India and suggests for the improved implementation of building modelling for Indian policy condition.

Keywords: building information modelling, Indian polity, information modelling, information sharing, mandates and policies, sustainability.

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

Abstract:

Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: R. Whalley

Abstract:

The heat transfer modelling for a diffusion process will be considered. Difficulties in computing the time-distance dynamics of the representation will be addressed. Incomplete and irrational Laplace function will be identified as the computational issue. Alternative approaches to the response evaluation process will be provided. An illustration application problem will be presented. Graphical results confirming the theoretical procedures employed will be provided.

Keywords: heat, transfer, diffusion, modelling, computation

Procedia PDF Downloads 522

Authors: Abdessamad Dali-Ali, Houaria Beldjillali, Fouzia Agag, Asmaa Oukebdane, Ramzi Tidjani, Arslane Bettayeb, Khadidja Meddeber, Radia Dali-Yahia, Nori Midoun

Abstract:

Healthcare-associated infections are a real public health problem, especially in intensive care units. The aim of our study was to describe the epidemiological profile and to estimate the incidence of these infections at the intensive care unit of our teaching hospital. A prospective study was conducted, from June 2012 to December 2013. During this period, 305 patients having a duration of hospitalization equal or more than 48 hours were included in the study. In terms of the incidence of healthcare associated infections, nosocomial pneumonia occupied the first position with a cumulative incidence rate of 20.0%, followed by bacteremia (5.6%), central venous catheter infections (4%), and urinary tract infections (3%). In the case of isolated microorganisms, Gram-negative bacilli not enterobacteriaceae occupied the first place with 48.5%, followed by enterobacteria (32.1%). Acinetobacter baumannii was the most common germ (27.6%). Our study showed that the rate of health-care-associated infections was relatively high in the intensive care unit. A control program to reduce all infections is a priority for the Infection Control Associated Committee.

Keywords: epidemiological profile, healthcare associated infections, intensive care units, teaching hospital of Oran, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

Abstract:

Web scraping and text mining are popular computer science methods deployed by public health researchers to augment traditional epidemiological surveillance. However, within veterinary disease surveillance, such techniques are still in the early stages of development and have not yet been fully utilised. This study presents an exploration into the utility of incorporating internet-based data to better understand the smallholder farming communities within Scotland by using online text extraction and the subsequent mining of this data. Web scraping of the livestock fora was conducted in conjunction with text mining of the data in search of common themes, words, and topics found within the text. Results from bi-grams and topic modelling uncover four main topics of interest within the data pertaining to aspects of livestock husbandry: feeding, breeding, slaughter, and disposal. These topics were found amongst both the poultry and pig sub-forums. Topic modeling appears to be a useful method of unsupervised classification regarding this form of data, as it has produced clusters that relate to biosecurity and animal welfare. Internet data can be a very effective tool in aiding traditional veterinary surveillance methods, but the requirement for human validation of said data is crucial. This opens avenues of research via the incorporation of other dynamic social media data, namely Twitter and Facebook/Meta, in addition to time series analysis to highlight temporal patterns.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, smallholding, social media, web scraping, sentiment analysis, geolocation, text mining, NLP

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Qamar J. A. Khan, Fatma Ahmed Al Kharousi

Abstract:

A prey-predator eco-epidemiological model is studied where transmission of the disease between infected and uninfected prey is nonlinear. The interaction of the predator with infected and uninfected prey species depend on their numerical superiority. Harvesting of both uninfected and infected prey is considered. Stability analysis is carried out for equilibrium values. Using the parameter µ, the death rate of infected prey as a bifurcation parameter it is shown that Hopf bifurcation could occur. The theoretical results are compared with numerical results for different set of parameters.

Keywords: bifurcation, optimal harvesting, predator, prey, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Bennasser Samira

Abstract:

Meningitis, especially the meningococcal one, is a serious problem of public health. A system of vigilanceand surveillance is in place to allow effective actions to be taken on actual or potential health problems caused by all forms of meningitis. Objectives: 1. Describe the epidemiological surveillance system for meningitis in the province of Taza. 2. Evaluate the quality and responsiveness of the epidemiological surveillance system for meningitis in the province of Taza. 3. Propose measures to improve this system at the provincial level. Methods: This was a descriptive study with a purely quantitative approach by evaluating the quality and responsiveness of the system during 5 years between January 2016 and December 2020. We usedfor that the investigation files of meningitis cases and the provincial database of meningitis. We calculated some quality indicators of surveillance system already defined by the National Program for the Prevention and Control of Meningitis. Results: The notification is passive, the completeness of the data is quite good (94%), and the timeliness don’t exceed 71%. The quality of the data is acceptable (91% agreement). The systematic and rapid performance of lumbar punctures increases the diagnostic capabilities of the system. The local response actions are effected in 100%. Conclusion: The improvement of this surveillance system depends on strengthening the staff skills in diagnostic, reviewing surveillance tools, and encouraging judicious use of the data.

Keywords: evaluation, meningitis, system, taza, morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Javad Khaligh, Aghileh Heydari, Ali Akbar Heydari

Abstract:

Mathematical epidemiological models for the spread of disease through a population are used to predict the prevalence of a disease or to study the impacts of treatment or prevention measures. Initial conditions for these models are measured from statistical data collected from a population since these initial conditions can never be exact, the presence of chaos in mathematical models has serious implications for the accuracy of the models as well as how epidemiologists interpret their findings. This paper confirms the chaotic behavior of a model for dengue fever and SI by investigating sensitive dependence, bifurcation, and 0-1 test under a variety of initial conditions.

Keywords: epidemiological models, SEIR disease model, bifurcation, chaotic behavior, 0-1 test

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Eddy K. Mukadi

Abstract:

This work is a documentary and descriptive study devoted to the epidemiological, clinical, histopathological and therapeutic profile of breast cancer deals with the department of gynecology and obstetrics of the university clinics of Kinshasa during the period from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014. We have identified 56 cases of breast cancer. These cancers accounted for 45.2% of gynecological mammary cancers. The youngest in our series was 18 years old while the oldest was 74 years old; And the mean age of these patients was 43.4 years and mostly multiparous (35.7%). Brides (60.7%) and bachelors (26.8%) were the most affected by breast cancer. The reasons for consultation were dominated by nodules in the breast (48.2%) followed by pain (35.7%) and nipple discharge (14.3%). In 89.2% of the cases, it was the advanced clinical stage (stage 3 and 4) and the infiltrating ductal carcinoma was the most frequent histological type (75%) The malignant tumor was mainly in the left breast (55.3%), and chemotherapy with hormone therapy and patey was the most convenient treatment (42.8%), while patey mastectomy was performed in 12.5% of patients. Because of the high incidence of breast cancer identified in our study, some preventive measures must be taken into account to address this public health problem, including breast autopalpation once a month, Early detection system development of a national breast cancer policy and the implementation of a national breast cancer control program.

Keywords: breast cancer, histopathological profile, epidemiological profile, Kinshasa

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: A. Dali-Ali, F. Agag, H. Beldjilali, A. Oukebdane, K. Meddeber, R. Dali-Yahia, N. Midoun

Abstract:

The ability of Acinetobacter baumannii to develop multiple resistances towards to the majority of antibiotics explains the therapeutic difficulties encountered in severe infections. Furthermore, its persistence in the humid or dry environment promotes cross-contamination in intensive care units. The aim of our study was to describe the epidemiological and bacterial resistance profiles of hospital-acquired infections caused by Acinetobacter baumannii in the intensive care unit of our teaching hospital. During the study period (June 3, 2012 to December 31, 2013), 305 patients having duration of hospitalization equal or more than 48 hours were included in the study. Among these, 36 had developed, at least, one health-care associated infection caused by Acinetobacter baumannii. The rate of infected patients was equal to 11.8% (36/305). The rate of cumulative incidence of hospital-acquired pneumonia was the highest (9.2%) followed by central venous catheter infection (1.3%). Analysis of the various antibiotic resistance profile shows that 93.8% of the strains were resistant to imipenem. The nosocomial infection control committee set up a special program not only to reduce the high rates of incidence of these infections but also to descrease the rate of imipenem resistance.

Keywords: Acinetobacer baumannii, epidemiological profile, hospital acquired infections, intensive care unit

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Authors: A. Lakhal, M. Bahalou, A. Khattabi

Abstract:

Introduction: Tuberculosis is one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. In Morocco, a total of 30,636 cases of Tuberculosis, all forms combined, were reported in 2015, representing an incidence of 89 cases per 100,000 population. The number of deaths from tuberculosis (TB) was 656 cases. In the prefecture of Meknes, its incidence remains high compared to the national level. The objective of this work is to describe the epidemiological profile of tuberculosis in the prefecture of Meknes. Methods: It is a descriptive analysis of TB cases reported between 2016 and 2020 at the regional diagnostic center of tuberculosis and respiratory diseases. We performed analysis by using Microsoft Excel and EpiInfo 7. Results: Epidemiological data from 2016 to 2020 report a total of 4100 new cases of all forms of tuberculosis, with an average of 820 new cases per year. The median age is 32 years. There is a clear male predominance, on average 58% of cases are male and 42% female. The incidence rate of bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis per 100,000 inhabitants has increased from 35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016 to 39.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2020. The confirmation rate for pulmonary tuberculosis decreased from 84% in 2016 to 75% in 2020. Pulmonary involvement predominates by an average of 46%, followed by lymph node involvement 29%and pleural involvement by an average of 10%. Digestive, osteoarticular, genitourinary, and meningeal involvement occurs in 8% of cases. Primary tuberculosis infection occurs in an average of 0.5% of cases. The proportion of HIV-TB co-infections was 2.8 in 2020. Conclusion: The incidence of tuberculosis in Meknes remains high compared to the national level. Thus, it is imperative to reinforce the earlier detection; improve the contact tracing, detection methods of cases for their confirmation and treatment, and to reduce the proportion of the lost to follow up as well.

Keywords: tuberculosis, epidemiological profile, meknes, morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Gal Zagron, Nitza Abramson, Deena R. Zimmerman, Chen Stein-Zamir

Abstract:

Background: Salmonella enteritidis is a common cause of foodborne outbreaks, primarily associated with poultry eggs. S. enteritidis This is the only Salmonella type that is found inside the eggshell. A rise in Salmonella enteritidis notifications was noted in spring 2017. Aims: The aim of this study is to describe the epidemiological investigation of the outbreak in the Jerusalem district, along with the containment measures taken. Methods: This study is a population-based epidemiological study with a description of environmental control activities. Results: During the months May - July, 2017 848 salmonellosis cases were reported to the Jerusalem district health office compared to 294 cases May - July 2016. Salmonella enteritidis was isolated in 58% of reported cases. Clusters and outbreaks ( > 2 cases) were reported among nursery schools, nursing homes, persons residing in one kibbutz and several cases in different food service establishments in the Jerusalem district. Epidemiological investigations revealed eggs consumption as a common feature among the cases (uncooked or undercooked eggs in most cases). A national investigation among egg suppliers revealed that most cases consumed eggs provided by a single provider with isolation of Salmonella enteritidis at the source as well. Containment measures were taken to control the epidemic including distributing information via electronic and written media to the public, searching for all egg distribution centers, informing local authorities, the poultry council and food stores. The eggs originating from the provider were recalled and extinguished. Written instructions to all food preparation facilities in the district were distributed regarding the proper storage and preparation of eggs. The number of reported cases declined and the outbreak vanished during correlating months of 2018. Conclusions: The investigation of Salmonella enteritidis outbreaks should include epidemiological and laboratory investigations, tracing the source of the eggs and testing the eggs and the source of eggs. Health education activities are essential as to the proper handling of eggs and egg products aiming to minimize susceptibility to Salmonella infection.

Keywords: epidemiological investigation, food-borne disease, food safety, Salmonella enteritidis

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

Abstract:

Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Alakija Temitope Olufunmilayo, Akinyemi, Yagba Joy

Abstract:

Hepatitis is the inflammation of the liver tissue that can cause whiteness of the eyes (Jaundice), lack of appetite, vomiting, tiredness, abdominal pain, diarrhea. Hepatitis is acute if it resolves within 6 months and chronic if it last longer than 6 months. Acute hepatitis can resolve on its own, lead to chronic hepatitis or rarely result in acute liver failure. Chronic hepatitis may lead to scarring of the liver (Cirrhosis), liver failure and liver cancer. Modelling Hepatitis B may become necessary in order to reduce its spread. So, dynamic SIR model can be used. This model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equation which does not have an explicit formula solution. It is an epidemiological model used to predict the dynamics of infectious disease by categorizing the population into three possible compartments. In this study, a five-compartment dynamic model of Hepatitis B disease was proposed and developed by adding control measure of sensitizing the public called awareness. All the mathematical and statistical formulation of the model, especially the general equilibrium of the model, was derived, including the nonlinear least square estimators. The initial parameters of the model were derived using nonlinear least square embedded in R code. The result study shows that the proportion of Hepatitis B patient in the study population is 1.4 per 1,000,000 populations. The estimated Hepatitis B induced death rate is 0.0108, meaning that 1.08% of the infected individuals die of the disease. The reproduction number of Hepatitis B diseases in Nigeria is 6.0, meaning that one individual can infect more than 6.0 people. The effect of sensitizing the public on the basic reproduction number is significant as the reproduction number is reduced. The study therefore recommends that programme should be designed by government and non-governmental organization to sensitize the entire Nigeria population in order to reduce cases of Hepatitis B disease among the citizens.

Keywords: hepatitis B, modelling, non-linear ordinary differential equation, sihar model, sensitization

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Banan Aljumaiah

Abstract:

In recent years, the construction industry has leveraged the information revolution, which makes it possible to view the entire construction process of new buildings before they are built with the advent of Building Information Modelling (BIM). Although BIM is an integration of the building model with the data and documents about the building, however, its implementation is limited to individual buildings missing the large picture of the city infrastructure. This limitation of BIM led to the birth of City Information Modelling. Three years ago, Eastern Province Municipality (EPM) in Saudi Arabia mandated that all major projects be delivered with collaborative 3D BIM. After three years of implementation, EPM started to implement City Information Modelling (CIM) as a part of the Smart City Plan to link infrastructure and public services and modelling how people move around and interact with the city. This paper demonstrates a local case study of BIM implementation in EPM and its future as a part of project management automation; the paper also highlights the ambitious plan of EPM to transform CIM towards building smart cities.

Keywords: BIM, BIM to CIM

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Vittorio Caffi, Maria Pignataro, Antonio Cosimo Devito, Marco Pesenti

Abstract:

This paper deals with the integration of advanced digital design and modelling tools and methodologies, known as Building Information Modelling, into the traditional Academy educational programs for building engineers and architects. Nowadays, the challenge the Academy has to face is to present the new tools and their features to the pupils, making sure they acquire the proper skills in order to leverage the potential they offer also for the other courses embedded in the educational curriculum. The syllabus here presented refers to the “Drawing for building engineering”, “2D and 3D laboratory” and “3D modelling” curricula of the MSc in Building Engineering of the Politecnico di Milano. Such topics, included since the first year in the MSc program, are fundamental to give the students the instruments to master the complexity of an architectural or building engineering project with digital tools, so as to represent it in its various forms.

Keywords: BIM, BIM curricula, computational design, digital modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 638

Authors: Vishnu S. Prasad, Preeti Aghalayam

Abstract:

The major harmful automobile exhausts are nitric oxide (NO) and unburned hydrocarbon (HC). Reduction of NO using unburned fuel HC as a reductant is the technique used in hydrocarbon-selective catalytic reduction (HC-SCR). In this work, we study the microkinetic modelling of NO reduction using propene as a reductant on Pt catalysts. The selectivity of NO reduction to N₂O is detected in some ranges of operating conditions, whereas the effect of inlet O₂% causes a number of changes in the feasible regimes of operation.

Keywords: microkinetic modelling, NOx, platinum on alumina catalysts, selective catalytic reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Agarana Michael C., Akinlabi Esther T., Pule Kholopane

Abstract:

Innovation in manufacturing process technologies and associated product design affects the prospects for manufacturing today and in near future. In this study some theoretical methods, useful as tools in advanced manufacturing, are considered. In particular, some basic Mathematical, Operational Research, Heuristic, and Statistical techniques are discussed. These techniques/methods are very handy in many areas of advanced manufacturing processes, including process planning optimization, modelling and analysis. Generally the production rate requires the application of Mathematical methods. The Emerging Trends Processes in Advanced Manufacturing can be enhanced by using Mathematical Modelling and Optimization techniques.

Keywords: mathematical modelling, optimization, emerging trends, advanced manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: P. Efstathiou, E. Kouskouni, S. Papanikolaou, K. Karageorgou, Z. Manolidou, Tseroni Maria, A. Efstathiou, V. Karyoti, I. Agrafa

Abstract:

Aim: Aim of this study was to evaluate the reduction on Intensive Care Unit (ICU) microbial flora after the antimicrobial copper alloy (Cu+) implementation as well as the effect on financial-epidemiological operation parameters. Methods: Medical, epidemiological and financial data in two time periods, before and after the implementation of copper (Cu 63% - Zn 37%, low lead) were recorded and analyzed in a general ICU. The evaluated parameters were: the importance of patients' admission (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation - APACHE II and Simplified Acute Physiology Score - SAPS), microbial flora's record in the ICU before and after the implementation of Cu+ as well as the impact on epidemiological and ICU's operation financial parameters. Results: During December 2010 and March 2011 and respectively during December 2011 and March 2012 comparative results showed statistically significant reduction on the microbial flora (CFU/ml) by 95% and the use of antimicrobial medicine (per day per patient) by 30% (p = 0,014) as well as patients hospitalization time and cost. Conclusions: The innovative implementation of antimicrobial copper in ICUs contributed to their microbial flora significant reduction and antimicrobial drugs use reduction with the apparent positive effect (decrease) in both patient’s hospitalization time and cost. Under the present circumstances of economic crisis, survey results are of highest importance and value.

Keywords: antimicrobial copper, financial benefits, ICU, cost reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 440