Search results for: climate risks

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: S. Surapa Raju

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In Andhra Pradesh, the symptoms of climate variations in coastal villages can be observed from various studies. The Andhra Pradesh coast is known its frequent tropical cyclones and associated floods and tidal surges causing loss of life and property in the region. In the last decade alone, the state experienced 18 devastating storms causing huge loss to coastal people. The year 2007 was the fourth warmest year on record since 1901 and 2009 witnessed the heat wave conditions prevailing over the coastal Andhra Pradesh. With regarding to sea level rise (SLR), 43 percent of the coastal areas considered to be at high risk. The main objectives of the study are: to know the perceptions of fisher people on climate variations and to find out the awareness of the fisher people on climate variations and its effects at village and on fishing households. Altogether 150 households were chosen purposively for this study and collected information from the households based on semi-structured schedule. The present field-based study observed that most of the fisher people are experienced about the changes in climate variations in their villages. The first generation fisher people expressed that the at least 1/2km of sea erosion taken place from the last 20 years and most of them displaced. With regard to fishing activities, first generation fisher people revealed that 20 years back they were fishing in near-shore areas, but now availability of near shore is decreased at a large extent. The present study observed the lot of variations in growth of species in marine districts of Andhra Pradesh from the year 2005-2010. Some species like Silver pomfret, Sole (flat fish), Chriocentrus, Thrisocies, Stakes, Rays etc. are in decaling. The results of the study indicate that huge variation observed in growth rates of fish species. Small and traditional fishers have drastically effected in El NiNo years than the normal years as they have not own suitable equipment such as crafts and nets. The study discovered that many changes taken place in the fishing activities and they are: go for long distance for fishing which increases the cost of fishing operations; decrease in fish catches. Need to take up in-depth studies in the marine villages and tackle the situation by creating more awareness about the negative effects of climate variations among fishing households. Suitable fish craft technology is to be supplied and create more employment opportunities for the fishers in other than fishery.

Keywords: climate, Andhra Pradesh, El nino years, India

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Malihe Ahmadi

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Nowadays, stress, tension and neural problems are among the most important concerns of the present age. The environment plays key role on improving mental health and reducing stress of citizens. Establishing balance and appropriate relationship between city and natural environment is of the most important approaches of present century. Type of approach and logical planning for urban green spaces as one of the basic sections of integration with nature, not only plays key role on quality and efficiency of comprehensive urban planning; but also it increases the system of distributing social activities and happiness and lively property of urban environments that leads to permanent urban development. The main purpose of recovering urban identity is considering culture, history and human life style in past. This is a documentary-library research that evaluates the historical properties of Iranian gardens in compliance with climate condition. Results of this research reveal that in addition to following Iranian gardens from common principles of land lot, structure of flowers and plants, water, specific buildings during different ages, the role of climate at different urban areas is among the basics of determining method of designing green spaces and different buildings located at diverse areas i.e. Iranian gardens are a space for merging natural and artificial elements that has inseparable connection with semantic principles and guarantees different functions. Some of the necessities of designing present urban gardens are including: recognition and recreation.

Keywords: historical gardens, climate, properties of Iranian gardens, Iran

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Authors: Pinar Ercan, Bulut Mert

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The baking industry is prone to occupational health challenges like other industries. Workers in bakeries face many hazards in their work environment; hazards have the potential for causing injury, illness or work accidents. Most of these hazards are preventable and arise from the neglect of occupational safety measures. Some bakeries in Izmır Turkey was evaluated according to occupational health and safety. First of all, the production process was evaluated. The survey was administered to a total of 50 employees. The survey consisted of two sections. The first one comprised only demographic questions and items related to job characteristics. The remaining section was assessing the satisfaction and confidence about occupational health and safety in terms of employees consist of a 10-item questionnaire by using HSE (2010) survey with some modifications. Also, hazards, risks and control measures in the bakeries were determined. Risk assessment has been done by the use of '5x5 Risk Assessment Table' for this purpose.

Keywords: bakeries, occupational health and safety, hazards, risks, risk assessment

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Authors: Sylvia Szabo, Thilini Navaratne, Indrajit Pal, Seree Park

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Deltaic and coastal regions are often strategically important both from local and regional perspectives. While deltas are known to be bread baskets of the world, delta inhabitants often face the risk of food and nutritional insecurity. These risks are highly exacerbated by the impacts of climate and environmental change. While numerous regional studies examined the prevalence and the determinants of food security in specific delta and coastal regions, there is still a lack of a systematic analysis of the most widely used scientific food security indicators. In order to fill this gap, a systematic review was carried out using Covidence, a Cochrane-adopted systematic review processing software. Papers included in the review were selected from the SCOPUS, Thomson Reuters Web of Science, Science Direct, ProQuest, and Google Scholar databases. Both scientific papers and grey literature (e.g., reports by international organizations) were considered. The results were analyzed by food security components (access, availability, quality, and strategy) and by world regions. Suggestions for further food security, nutrition, and health research, as well as policy-related implications, are also discussed.

Keywords: delta regions, coastal, food security, indicators, systematic review

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Authors: Rose-Michelle Smith, Musandji Fuamba, Salomon Salumu

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Water is vital for life. Access to drinking water and sanitation for humans is one of the Sustainable Development Goals (specifically the sixth) approved by United Nations Member States in September 2015. There are various problems identified relating to water: insufficient fresh water, inequitable distribution of water resources, poor water management in certain places on the planet, detection of water-borne diseases due to poor water quality, and the negative impacts of climate change on water. One of the major challenges in the world is finding ways to ensure that people and the environment have enough water resources to sustain and support their existence. Thus, this research project aims to develop a tool to assess the availability, quality and needs of water in current and future situations with regard to climate change. This tool was tested using threshold values for three regions in three countries: the Metropolitan Community of Montreal (Canada), Normandie Region (France) and North Department (Haiti). The WEAP software was used to evaluate the available quantity of water resources. For water quality, two models were performed: the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) and the Malaysian Water Quality Index (WQI). Preliminary results showed that the ratio of the needs could be estimated at 155, 308 and 644 m3/capita in 2023 for Normandie, Cap-Haitian and CMM, respectively. Then, the Water Quality Index (WQI) varied from one country to another. Other simulations regarding the water availability and quality are still in progress. This tool will be very useful in decision-making on projects relating to water use in the future; it will make it possible to estimate whether the available resources will be able to satisfy the needs.

Keywords: climate change, water needs, balance sheet, water quality

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Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

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In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides，a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

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Authors: Esther Baldwin

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It is well settled that the use of solitary confinement can cause psychological and physical harm to detainees. For juveniles, who are more susceptible to irreparable harm due to their underdeveloped psyches, the risks are exacerbated. Despite these risks, across the United States juvenile detainees are regularly held in isolation for prolonged periods of time. This essay will examine the broad impact of solitary confinement on juvenile detainees while giving particular focus to the story of Kalief Browder, a juvenile awaiting trial on Rikers Island in New York for a period of three years, nearly two years of which were spent in solitary confinement. Although sadly, his story is not uncommon, Kalief’s story offers a unique perspective in that it provides first-hand insight on the effects of solitary confinement on juveniles. It is our hope that by sharing his story, we will demand better detention practices and policies for juveniles under correctional control in the United States.

Keywords: criminal justice system, juveniles, Kalief browder, solitary confinement

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Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate related disasters such as flood and cyclone. Exploring from the semi-structured in-depth interviews of 38 stakeholders and literature review, this study examined the public spending distribution process in DRR. This paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy-enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts of Department of Disaster Management (DDM) such as distribution of flood centres, cyclone centres and 40 days employment generation programs. Enclosure refers to when DRR projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when DRR projects limit affected people’s access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of DRR projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when DRR projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In line with United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Hyogo and Sendai Frameworks, in the case of Bangladesh, DRR policies implemented under the country’s national five-year plan, disaster-related acts and rules. These policies and practices have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of DRR exist at both the national and local scales. DRR related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, DRR related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of DRR need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, disaster risk reduction, fund distribution, political economy

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Authors: Celine Delacroix

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Analyses of global emission scenarios demonstrate that slowing population growth could lead to substantial emissions reductions and play an important role to avoid dangerous climate change. For this reason, the advancement of individual reproductive rights might represent a valid climate change mitigation and adaptation option. With this focus, we reflected on population ethics and the ethical dilemmas associated with environmental degradation and climate change. We conducted a mixed-methods qualitative data study consisting of an online survey followed by in-depth interviews with stakeholders of the reproductive health and rights and environmental sustainability movements to capture the ways in which the linkages between family planning, population growth, and environmental sustainability are perceived by these actors. We found that the multi-layered marginalization of this issue resulted in two processes, the polarization of opinions and its eschewal from the public fora through population reductionism. Our results indicate that stakeholders of the reproductive rights and environmental sustainability movements find that population size and family planning influence environmental sustainability and overwhelmingly find that the reproductive health and rights ideological framework should be integrated in a wider sustainability frame reflecting environmental considerations. This position, whilst majoritarily shared by all participants, was more likely to be adopted by stakeholders of the environmental sustainability sector than those from the reproductive health and rights sector. We conclude that these processes, taken in the context of a context of a climate emergency, threaten to weaken the reproductive health and rights movement.

Keywords: environmental sustainability, family planning, population growth, population ethics, reproductive rights

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Authors: Mustapha Babatunde, Bassam Tawabini, Ole John Nielson

Abstract:

Air dispersion (AD) models such as AERMOD are important tools for estimating the environmental impacts of air pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. The outcome of these models is significantly linked to the climate condition like air temperature, which is expected to differ in the future due to the global warming phenomenon. With projections from scientific sources of impending changes to the future climate of Saudi Arabia, especially anticipated temperature rise, there is a potential direct impact on the dispersion patterns of air pollutants results from AD models. To our knowledge, no similar studies were carried out in Saudi Arabia to investigate such impact. Therefore, this research investigates the effects of climate temperature change on air quality in the Dammam Metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia, using AERMOD coupled with Station data using Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) – as a model air pollutant. The research uses AERMOD model to predict the SO₂ dispersion trends in the surrounding area. Emissions from five (5) industrial stacks on twenty-eight (28) receptors in the study area were considered for the climate period (2010-2019) and future period of mid-century (2040-2060) under different scenarios of elevated temperature profiles (+1ᵒC, + 3ᵒC and + 5ᵒC) across averaging time periods of 1hr, 4hr and 8hr. Results showed that levels of SO₂ at the receiving sites under current and simulated future climactic condition fall within the allowable limit of WHO and KSA air quality standards. Results also revealed that the projected rise in temperature would only have mild increment on the SO₂ concentration levels. The average increase of SO₂ levels was 0.04%, 0.14%, and 0.23% due to the temperature increase of 1, 3, and 5 degrees, respectively. In conclusion, the outcome of this work elucidates the degree of the effects of global warming and climate changes phenomena on air quality and can help the policymakers in their decision-making, given the significant health challenges associated with ambient air pollution in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: air quality, sulfur dioxide, dispersion models, global warming, KSA

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Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961-2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5 °C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change

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Authors: Amylyn F. Labasano, M. S. Econ

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The study predicts the impact of collective bargaining agreement and its related factors on employees’ perceived productivity in terms of union-management relation’s climate, income, fringe benefits, and job satisfaction of the employees. It also determines whether there are significant differences in the employees’ perceived productivity based on the demographic characteristics of the respondents. The results revealed that the relationship climate which exists between the union and the management is found to have significant adverse effect on the average unpaid hours spent by employees working within the college. On the other hand, the total monthly wage earnings of employees have negative effect on the average hours an employee spent in bringing his work home while job satisfaction positively influences the overall productivity level of employees. The result further shows significant differences in the productivity level of employees across civil status and current designation.

Keywords: perceived productivity, collective bargaining agreement, union, union-management relations climate, income, fringe benefits, job satisfaction

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Authors: Oksana Domkina

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According to the modern economic theory, human capital became one of the main production factors and the most promising direction of investment, as such investment provides opportunity of obtaining high and long-term economic and social effects. Informational technology (IT) sector is the representative of this new economy which is most dependent on human capital as the main competitive factor. So the question for this sector is not whether investment in development of personal should be made, but what are the most effective ways of executing it and who has to pay for the education: Worker, company or government. In this paper we examine the IT sector, describe the labor market of IT workers and its development, and analyze the risks that IT companies may face if they invest in the development of their workers and what factors influence it. The main problem and difficulty of quantitative estimation of risk of investment in human capital of a company and its forecasting is human factor. Human behavior is often unpredictable and complex, so it requires specific approaches and methods of assessment. To build a comprehensive method of estimation of the risk of investment in human capital of a company considering human factor, we decided to use the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), that initially was created and developed. We separated three main group of factors: Risks related to the worker, related to the company, and external factors. To receive data for our research, we conducted a survey among the HR departments of Ukrainian IT companies used them as experts for the AHP method. Received results showed that IT companies mostly invest in the development of their workers, although several hire only already qualified personnel. According to the results, the most significant risks are the risk of ineffective training and the risk of non-investment that are both related to the firm. The analysis of risk factors related to the employee showed that, the factors of personal reasons, motivation, and work performance have almost the same weights of importance. Regarding internal factors of the company, there is a high role of the factor of compensation and benefits, factors of interesting projects, team, and career opportunities. As for the external environment, one of the most dangerous factor of risk is competitor activities, meanwhile the political and economical situation factor also has a relatively high weight, which is easy to explain by the influence of severe crisis in Ukraine during 2014-2015. The presented method allows to take into consideration all main factors that affect the risk of investment in human capital of a company. This gives a base for further research in this field and allows for a creation of a practical framework for making decisions regarding the personnel development strategy and specific employees' development plans for the HR departments.

Keywords: risks, personnel development, investment in development, factors of risk, risk of investment in development, IT, analytic hierarchy process, AHP

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Authors: Phan Minh Trang, Joacim Rocklöv, Kim Bao Giang, Gunnar Kullgren, Maria Nilsson

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There are recent studies from high income countries reporting an association between heat waves and hospital admissions for mental health disorders. It is not previously studied if such relations exist in sub-tropical and tropical low- and middle-income countries. In this study from Vietnam, the assumption was that hospital admissions for mental disorders may be triggered, or exacerbated, by heat exposure and heat waves. A database from Hanoi Mental Hospital with mental disorders diagnosed by the International Classification of Diseases 10, spanning over five years, was used to estimate the heatwave-related impacts on admissions for mental disorders. The relationship was analysed by a Negative Binomial regression model accounting for year, month, and days of week. The focus of the study was heat-wave events with periods of three or seven consecutive days above the threshold of 35oC daily maximum temperature. The preliminary study results indicated that heat-waves increased the risks for hospital admission for mental disorders (F00-79) from heat-waves of three and seven days with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (1.01–1.33) and 1.42 (1.02–1.99) respectively, when compared with non-heat-wave periods. Heatwave-related admissions for mental disorders increased statistically significantly among men, among residents in rural communities and in elderly. Moreover, cases for organic mental disorders including symptomatic illnesses (F0-9) and mental retardation (F70-79) raised in high risks during heat waves. The findings are novel studying a sub-tropical middle-income city, facing rapid urbanisation and epidemiological and demographic transitions.

Keywords: mental disorders, admissions for F0-9 or F70-79, maximum temperature, heat waves

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Authors: Nuno M. Pereira

Abstract:

In the last thirty years, European cities have been addressing global climate change and its local impacts by implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Lisbon Downtown is no exception with 10 plans under implementation since 2010 with completion scheduled for 2030 valued 1 billion euros of public investment. However, the gap between mitigation and adaptation strategies is not yet sufficiently studied alongside with its nuances- vulnerability and risk mitigation, resilience and adaptation. In Lisbon Downtown, these plans are being implemented separately, therefore compromising the effectiveness of public investment. The research reviewed the common ground of mitigation and adaptation strategies of the theoretical framework and analyzed the current urban development actions in Lisbon Downtown in order to identify potential conflicts and synergies. The empirical fieldwork supported by a sounding board of experts has been developed during two years and the results suggest that the largest public investment in Lisbon on flooding mitigation will conflict with the new Cruise ship terminal and old Downton building stock, therefore increasing risk and vulnerability factors. The study concludes that the Lisbon Downtown blue infrastructure plan should be redesigned in some areas in a trans- disciplinary and holistic approach and that the current theoretical framework on climate change should focus more on mitigation and adaptation synergies articulating the gray, blue and green infrastructures, combining old knowledge tested by resilient communities and new knowledge emerging from the digital era.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, conflict, Lisbon Downtown, mitigation, synergy

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Authors: Mustapha Babatunde, Bassam Tawabini, Ole John Nielson

Abstract:

Air dispersion (AD) models such as AERMOD are important tools for estimating the environmental impacts of air pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. The outcome of these models is significantly linked to the climate condition like air temperature, which is expected to differ in the future due to the global warming phenomenon. With projections from scientific sources of impending changes to the future climate of Saudi Arabia, especially anticipated temperature rise, there is a potential direct impact on the dispersion patterns of air pollutants results from AD models. To our knowledge, no similar studies were carried out in Saudi Arabia to investigate such impact. Therefore, this research investigates the effects of climate temperature change on air quality in the Dammam Metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia, using AERMOD coupled with Station data using Sulphur dioxide (SO2) – as a model air pollutant. The research uses AERMOD model to predict the SO2 dispersion trends on the surrounding area. Emissions from five (5) industrial stacks, on twenty-eight (28) receptors in the study area were considered for the climate period (2010-2019) and future period of mid-century (2040-2060) under different scenarios of elevated temperature profiles (+1oC, + 3oC and + 5oC) across averaging time periods of 1hr, 4hr and 8hr. Results showed that levels of SO2 at the receiving sites under current and simulated future climactic condition fall within the allowable limit of WHO and KSA air quality standards. Results also revealed that the projected rise in temperature would only have mild increment on the SO2 concentration levels. The average increase of SO2 levels were 0.04%, 0.14%, and 0.23% due to the temperature increase of 1, 3, and 5 degrees respectively. In conclusion, the outcome of this work elucidates the degree of the effects of global warming and climate changes phenomena on air quality and can help the policymakers in their decision-making, given the significant health challenges associated with ambient air pollution in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: air quality, sulphur dioxide, global warming, air dispersion model

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Authors: Kimberley Rain Miner, Karl Kreutz, Larry LeBlanc

Abstract:

During the period of 1950-1970 persistent organic pollutants such as DDT, dioxin and PCB were released in the atmosphere and distributed through precipitation into glaciers throughout the world. Recent abrupt climate change is increasing the melt rate of these glaciers, introducing the toxins to the watershed. Studies have shown the existence of legacy pollutants in glacial ice, but neither the impact nor quantity of these toxins on downstream populations has been assessed. If these pollutants are released at toxic levels it will be necessary to create a mitigation plan to lower their impact on the affected communities.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, mitigation, risk management

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Authors: B. Seetanah, R. V. Sannassee, Lamport, K. Padachi, K. Seetah, S. Matadeen, N. Okurutt, N. Ama, L. Mokoodi

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This paper analyses the impact of the various enabling elements towards fostering entrepreneurial behavior for two Sub Saharan African countries namely Mauritius and Botswana, with focus is on role of institutions (ministries, government support institutions, financing institutions and SME associations). Using a structural equation modeling framework, it is found that finance was some of the most determinant of respondents’ evaluation of the business climate thus emphasizing on the crucial of such an ingredient. Interestingly government related factors such as government support and institutional support are also reported to have a significant influence on the SME business climate in both countries.

Keywords: institutions, SME, SEM, Mauritius, Botswana

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

Abstract:

Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: 1. health and physical education risk factors male athlete associated with the male athlete traid in young elite athlete from pakistan., 2. sports sciences pakistan, 3. risk factors sports sciences pakistan, 4. triad and young elite athlete from pakistan

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

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This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Haytham Yassine

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This research seeks to identify how money laundering activities are executed through the real estate sector. This article provides academics with literature on the topic and provides scholars, and practitioners with a better understanding of the risks and challenges involved. Data are gathered through survey in the Middle East and North Africa region and review of the available research. The results of the analysis will help identifying the factors attracting criminals to the real estate sector and develop an understanding of the methods used to launder illicit funds through this sector and the indicators of suspicion for reporting entities. Further analysis reveals the risks posed by money laundering and terrorist financing on the real estate sector and challenges facing states in this regard.

Keywords: money laundering, terrorism financing, real estate sector, Middle East and North Africa

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Authors: Sinem Yıldırım, Çimen Özburak, Özge Özden

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Cities are facing a growing environmental issue as a result of the combined effect of urbanization and climate change. Climate change is the most conspicuousimpact on environmental issues. Nowadays, energy conservation is a very important subject for planners. It is known that green roofs can provide environmental benefits, which include building insulation and mitigating urban heat island effect within the cities. Some of the studies shown that green roofs regulate roof temperature and they have an effect on indoor temperatures of buildings. This research looks at the experimental investigation of different type green roof vegetation with control of no vegetation and their effect on indoor temperatures. The research has been carried out at Near East University Campus with the duration of four months in Nicosia, Cyprus. The experiment was consisting of four green roof types; three of them covered with vegetation, and one of them was not vegetated for control of the experiment. Each hut had 2.7 m2 roof areas, and the soil depth was 8 cm. Mediterranean climate drought resistant ground covers and shrubs were planted on the roof of the three huts. Three different vegetation type was used: 1-Low growing ground cover succulents 2-Mixture of low growing succulents and low shrubs 3-Mixture of low growing succulents, low shrubs, and high growing foliage plantsElitech RC-5 temperature data loggers were used in order to measure indoor temperatures of the huts. Research results were shown that the hut with a highly vegetated roof had the lowest temperatures during hot summer period in Cyprus.

Keywords: green roofs, indoor temperature, vegetation, mediterranean, cyprus

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Authors: Kuo Chieh Chao, Thishani Amarathunga, Sangam Shrestha

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Rainfall induced slope failures are one of the most damaging and disastrous natural hazards which occur frequently in the world. This type of sliding mainly occurs in the zone above the groundwater level in silty/sandy soils. When the rainwater begins to infiltrate into the vadose zone of the soil, the negative pore-water pressure tends to decrease and reduce the shear strength of soil material. Climate change has resulted in excessive and unpredictable rainfall in all around the world, resulting in landslides with dire consequences to human lives and infrastructure. Such problems could be overcome by examining in detail the causes for such slope failures and recommending effective repair plans for vulnerable locations by considering future climatic change. The selected area for this study is located in the road rehabilitation section from Maubara to Mota Ain road in Timor-Leste. Slope failures and cracks have occurred in 2013 and after repairs reoccurred again in 2017 subsequent to heavy rains. Both observed and future predicted climate data analyses were conducted to understand the severe precipitation conditions in past and future. Observed climate data were collected from NOAA global climate data portal. CORDEX data portal was used to collect Regional Climate Model (RCM) future predicted climate data. Both observed and RCM data were extracted to location-based data using ArcGIS Software. Linear scaling method was used for the bias correction of future data and bias corrected climate data were assigned to GeoStudio Software. Precipitations of wet seasons (December to March ) in 2007 to 2013 is higher than 2001-2006 period and it is more than nearly 40% higher precipitation than usual monthly average precipitation of 160mm.The results of seepage analyses which were carried out using SEEP/W model with observed climate, clearly demonstrated that the pore water pressure within the fill slope was significantly increased due to the increase of the infiltration during the wet season of 2013.One main Regional Climate Models (RCM) was analyzed in order to predict future climate variation under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).In the projected period of 76 years ahead from 2014, shows that the amount of precipitation is considerably getting higher in the future in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical pore water pressure conditions during 2014-2090 were used in order to recommend appropriate remediation methods. Results of slope stability analyses indicated that the factor of safety of the fill slopes was reduced from 1.226 to 0.793 during the dry season to wet season in 2013.Results of future slope stability which were obtained using SLOPE/W model for the RCP emissions scenarios depict that, the use of tieback anchors and geogrids in slope protection could be effective in increasing the stability of slopes to an acceptable level during the wet seasons. Moreover, methods and procedures like monitoring of slopes showing signs or susceptible for movement and installing surface protections could be used to increase the stability of slopes.

Keywords: climate change, precipitation, SEEP/W, SLOPE/W, unsaturated soil

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Pressing demands for agricultural products and its associated pressure on water availability in the semi-arid areas demanded information for strategic decision-making in the changing climate conditions of Ethiopia. Availing such information through traditional agronomic research methods is not sufficient unless supported through the application of decision-support tools. The CERES (Crop Environmental Resource Synthesis) model in DSSAT-CSM was evaluated for estimating yield and water productivity of maize under two soil types (Andosol and Luvisol) of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. A six-year data (2010 – 2017) obtained from national fertilizer determination experiments were used for model evaluation. Pertinent statistical indices were employed to evaluate model performance. Following model evaluation, yield and rain-water productivity of maize was assessed for the baseline (1981-2010) and future climate (2050’s and 2080’s) scenario. The model performed well in predicting phenology, growth, and yield of maize for the different seasons and phosphorous rates. A good agreement between simulated and observed grain yield was indicated by low values of the RMSE (0.15 - 0.37 Mg/ha) and other indices for the two soil types. The evaluated model predicted a decline in the potential (23.8 to 26.7% at Melkassa and from 21.7 to 26.1% at Ziway under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively) and water-limited yield (15 to 18.3% at Melkassa and by 6.5 to 10.5% at Ziway) in the mid-century due to climate change. Consequently, a decline in water productivity was projected in the future periods that necessitate availing options to improve water productivity in the region. In conclusion, the DSSAT-CERES-maize model can be used to simulate maize (Melkassa-2) phenology, growth and grain yield, as well as simulate water productivity under different management scenarios that can help to identify options to improve water productivity in the changing climate of the semi-arid central Rift valley of Ethiopia.

Keywords: andosol, CERES-maize, luvisol, model evaluation, water productivity

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Authors: Ashik Sarder

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Bangladesh is a disaster-prone and one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The country has a long coastal area which is frequently being affected by several types of natural disasters due to climate change. The disasters have impacts on the life and livelihood of different natural resources depending on communities living in the coastal areas. The Malo is a Hindu religious traditional fishing community living at Sarafpur Union of Dumuria Upazila of Khulna district of south-west coastal Bangladesh. Fishing is the only means of their livelihood and the community has been engaged in fishing practices inherently in rivers, estuaries, and sea for more than 300 years. and they are totally dependent on this traditional occupation. But, in recent year’s climate change has negative impacts on their only livelihood option. The study aims to examine the impacts of climate change on the livelihood of Malo fishing community in south-west coastal Bangladesh, identify the adaptation strategies undertaken and practiced by Malo fishing community to cope with climate change and sustain their livelihood and explore the changing adaptation strategies undertaken by Malo fishing community and others. The study has been conducted from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives. Data has been collected from both primary and secondary sources. The primary data has been collected in the participatory observation approach following both qualitative and quantitative method. The primary source of data includes village census, face-to-face interview and in-depth case studies using structured questionnaire. The secondary source of the literature includes different national and international documents, policy papers, books and articles; related websites and peer-viewed documents on climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, livelihood, and fisheries. The study has identified different practices of adaption to climate change by Malo fishing community and others in the selected area. Three types of adaption practices have been identified. Firstly, the indigenous adaptation practices by Malo fishing community to cope with climate change have been identified. These identified adaptation practices by Malo fishing community include; ensuring drinking water and sanitation facilities, planting trees to tackle impacts of cyclone, excavating dumps to preserve the valuable assets, growing vegetables and rearing domestic livestock to earn surplus money, taking loans for ensuring continuation of present livelihood and migrating to near city or towns for better livelihood options. Secondly, adaptation initiatives undertaken by the government have provided limited facility to this vulnerable fishing community and made them benefited. And thirdly, some adaptation initiatives commenced by few non-government and community-based organizations have also made the Malo fishing community as beneficiaries. The study has suggested recommendations for Malo fishing community to overcome the challenges and impacts of climate change for retaining their traditional fishing livelihood. The accumulated recommendations would be very useful for the researchers, academicians, policy-makers of Government and non-government organizations to conduct more researches and take initiatives for Malo fishing community to make them more capable to sustain their fishing livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, livelihood, adaptation, anthropology, vulnerability

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Mehmet Kunt, Mahdi Nourollahi

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Evaluating the environmental risk factors is a combination of analysis of transportation effects. Various definitions for risk can be found in different scientific sources. Each definition depends on a specific and particular perspective or dimension. The effects of potential risks present along the new proposed routes and existing infrastructures of large transportation projects like railways should be studied under comprehensive engineering frameworks. Despite various definitions provided for ‘risk’, all include a uniform concept. Two obvious aspects, loss and unreliability, have always been pointed in all definitions of this term. But, selection as the third aspect is usually implied and means how one notices it. Currently, conducting engineering studies on the environmental effects of railway projects have become obligatory according to the Environmental Assessment Act in developing countries. Considering the longitudinal nature of these projects and probable passage of railways through various ecosystems, scientific research on the environmental risk of these projects have become of great interest. Although many areas of expertise such as road construction in developing countries have not seriously committed to these studies yet, attention to these subjects in establishment or implementation of different systems have become an inseparable part of this wave of research. The present study used environmental risks identified and existing in previous studies and stations to use in next step. The second step proposes a new hybrid approach of analytical network process (ANP) and DEMATEL in fuzzy conditions for assessment of determined risks. Since evaluation of identified risks was not an easy touch, mesh structure was an appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems which were accordingly employed for problem description and modeling. Researchers faced the shortage of real space data and also due to the ambiguity of experts’ opinions and judgments, they were declared in language variables instead of numerical ones. Since fuzzy logic is appropriate for ambiguity and uncertainty, formulation of experts’ opinions in the form of fuzzy numbers seemed an appropriate approach. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to extract the relations between major and minor risk factors. Considering the internal relations of risk major factors and its sub-factors in the analysis of fuzzy network, the weight of risk’s main factors and sub-factors were determined. In general, findings of the present study, in which effective railway environmental risk indicators were theoretically identified and rated through the first usage of combined model of DEMATEL and fuzzy network analysis, indicate that environmental risks can be evaluated more accurately and also employed in railway projects.

Keywords: DEMATEL, ANP, fuzzy, risk

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Authors: Mohamed Redha Menani

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The Northern Saharan aquifer system “SASS” shared by Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia, covers a surface of about 1 100 000 km². It is composed of superposed aquifers; the upper one is the “Continental terminal – CT” (Eocene calcareous formation) situated at 400 m depth in average, while the” Continental Intercalaire – CI”(clay sands from Albian to Lower Cretaceous) is generally at 1500 m depth. This aquifer system is situated in a dry zone with a very weak current recharge but with a non-renewable big volume stored, estimated between 20 000 and 31 000 km³. From 1970 to nowadays, the exploitation of the SASS has increased from 0.6 to more than 2.5 km³/year. This situation provoked risks of water salinisation, reduction of the artesianisme, an increase of drawdowns, etc. which seriously threaten the sustainable socioeconomic development engaged in the SASS zone. Face the water shortage induced by the alarming dryness noted these last years, particularly in the MENA region, the joint management of this system by the three concerned countries, engaged for many years, needs a long-term strategy of integrated water resources management to meet the expected socio-economic goals projected not only in the SASS zone but also in other places, by water transfers. The sustainable management of this extensive aquifer system, aiming to satisfy various needs not only in the areas covered by the SASS but also in other areas through hydraulic transfers, can only be considered if this management is genuinely coordinated, incorporating schemes that primarily address the major constraint of climate change, which has been observed worldwide over the past two decades and is intensifying. In this particular climate context, management schemes must necessarily target several aspects, including (i) Updating the state of water resource exploitation in the SASS. (ii) Guiding agricultural usage as the primary consumer to ensure significant water savings. (iii) Constant monitoring through a network of piezometers to control the physicochemical parameters of the exploited aquifers. (iv) Other aspects related to governance within the framework of integrated management must also be taken into consideration, particularly environmental aspects and conflict resolution. However, problems, especially political ones as currently seen in Libya, may limit or at least disrupt the prospects of coordinated and sustainable management of this aquifer system, which is vital for the three countries.

Keywords: transboundary water resources, SASS, governance, climatic changes

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Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman

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The growing consensus among scientists and world leaders indicates that immediate action should be considered regarding the climate change phenomenon. However, climate change is no more a global issue but a personal one. Thus, individual participation is necessary to address such a significant issue. Studies show that individuals who perceive climate change as a personal issue are more likely to act toward it. This abstract presents augmented reality (A.R.) technology in the social media platform Facebook video advertising. The idea involves creating a video advertisement that enables users to interact with the video by navigating its features and experiencing the result uniquely and engagingly. This advertisement uses A.R. to bring changes, such as people making changes in real-life scenarios by simple clicks on the video and hearing an instant rewarding fact about their choices. The video shows three options: room, lawn, and driveway. Users select one option and engage in interaction based on while holding the camera in their personal spaces: Suppose users select the first option, room, and hold their camera toward spots such as by the windows, balcony, corners, and even walls. In that case, the A.R. offers users different plants appropriate for those unoccupied spaces in the room. Users can change the options of the plants and see which space at their house deserves a plant that makes it more natural. When a user adds a natural element to the video, the video content explains a piece of beneficiary information about how the user contributes to the world more to be livable and why it is necessary. With the help of A.R., if users select the second option, lawn, and hold their camera toward their lawn, the options are various small trees for their lawn to make it more environmentally friendly and decorative. The video plays a beneficiary explanation here too. Suppose users select the third option, driveway, and hold their camera toward their driveway. In that case, the A.R. video option offers unique recycle bin designs using A.I. measurement of spaces. The video plays audio information on anthropogenic contribution to greenhouse gas emission. IoT embeds tracking code in the video ad on Facebook, which stores the exact number of views in the cloud for data analysis. An online survey at the end collects short qualitative answers. This study helps understand the number of users involved and willing to change their behavior; It makes personalized advertising in social media. Considering the current state of climate change, the urgency for action is increasing. This ad increases the chance to make direct connections with individuals and gives a sense of personal responsibility for climate change to act

Keywords: motivations, climate, iot, personalized-advertising, action

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