Search results for: growth percentage

Authors: Ibrahim Rassoul, E-K. Si Ahmed

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The growth, deformation, and detachment of fluid droplets adherent to solid substrates is a problem of fundamental interest with numerous practical applications. Specific interest in this proposal is the problem of a droplet on a fibrous, hydrophobic substrate subjected to body or external forces (gravity, convection). The past decade has seen tremendous advances in proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology. However, there remain many challenges to bring commercially viable stationary PEMFC products to the market. PEMFCs are increasingly emerging as a viable alternative clean power source for automobile and stationary applications. Before PEMFCs can be employed to power automobiles and homes, several key technical challenges must be properly addressed. One technical challenge is elucidating the mechanisms underlying water transport in and removal from PEMFCs. On the one hand, sufficient water is needed in the polymer electrolyte membrane or PEM to maintain sufficiently high proton conductivity. On the other hand, too much liquid water present in the cathode can cause 'flooding' (that is, pore space is filled with excessive liquid water) and hinder the transport of the oxygen reactant from the gas flow channel (GFC) to the three-phase reaction sites. The aim of this work is to investigate the stability of a liquid water droplet emerging form a GDL pore, to gain fundamental insight into the instability process leading to detachment. The approach will combine analytical and numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cell, water droplet, gas diffusion layer, contact angle, surface tension

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey Bezabeh, Tânia Sofia Oliveira, Josep Crous-Duran, João H. N. Palma

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Ethiopia's economy depends strongly on Coffea arabica production. Coffee, like many other crops, is sensitive to climate change. An urgent development and application of strategies against the negative impacts of climate change on coffee production is important. Agroforestry-based system is one of the strategies that may ensure sustainable coffee production amidst the likelihood of future impacts of climate change. This system involves the combination of trees in buffer extremes, thereby modifying microclimate conditions. This paper assessed coffee production under 1) coffee monoculture and 2) coffee grown using an agroforestry system, under a) current climate and b) two different future climate change scenarios. The study focused on two representative coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia under different soil, climate, and elevation conditions. A process-based growth model (Yield-SAFE) was used to simulate coffee production for a time horizon of 40 years. Climate change scenarios considered were representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed that in monoculture systems, the current coffee yields are between 1200-1250 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with an expected decrease between 4-38% and 20-60% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, in agroforestry systems, the current yields are between 1600-2200 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; the decrease was lower, ranging between 4-13% and 16-25% in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. From the results, it can be concluded that coffee production under agroforestry systems has a higher level of resilience when facing future climate change and reinforces the idea of using this type of management in the near future for adapting climate change's negative impacts on coffee production.

Keywords: Albizia gummifera, CORDEX, Ethiopia, HADCM3 model, process-based model

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Authors: Adela Penesova, Zofia Radikova, Boris Bajer, Andrea Havranova, Miroslav Vlcek

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Background: The aim of our study was to compare the effect of intensified lifestyle intervention on insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and Fibroblast growth factor (FGF) 21 after 8 weeks of lifestyle intervention. Methods: A group of 43 obese patients (13M/30F; 43.0±12.4 years; BMI (body mass index) 31.2±6.3 kg/m2 participated in a weight loss interventional program (NCT02325804) following an 8-week hypocaloric diet (-30% energy expenditure) and physical activity 150 minutes/week. Insulin sensitivity was evaluated according to the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and insulin sensitivity indices according to Matsuda and Cederholm were calculated (ISImat and ISIced). Plasma ALT, AST, Fetuin-A, FGF 21, and physical fitness were measured. Results: The average reduction of body weight was 6.8±4.9 kg (0-15 kg; p=0.0006), accompanied with a significant reduction of body fat amount of fat mass (p=0.03), and waist circumference (p=0.02). Insulin sensitivity has been improved (IR HOMA 2.71±3.90 vs 1.24±0.83; p=0.01; ISIMat 6.64±4.38 vs 8.93±5.36 p ≤ 0.001). Total, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides decreased (p=0.05, p=0.04, p=0.04, respectively). Physical fitness significantly improved after intervention (as measure VO2 max (maximal oxygen uptake) (p ≤ 0.001). ALT decreased significantly (0.44±0.26 vs post 0.33±0.18 ukat/l, p=0.004); however, AST not (pre 0.40±0.15 vs 0.35±0.09 ukat/l, p=0.07). Hepatokine Fetuin-A significantly decreased after intervention (43.1±10.8 vs 32.6±8.6 ng/ml, p < 0.001); however, FGF 21 levels tended to decrease (146±152 vs 132±164 pg/ml, p=0.07). Conclusion: 8-weeks of diet and physical activity intervention program in obese otherwise healthy subjects led to an improvement of insulin resistance parameters and liver marker profiles, as well as increased physical fitness. This study was supported by grants APVV 15-0228; VEGA 2/0161/16.

Keywords: obesity, diet, exercice, insulin sensitivity

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Authors: Men An Pan, Hong Ren Chen, Chih Heng Shih, Hsing Yuan Yen

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Pingtung County is located in the southernmost region of Taiwan. During the winter season, pollutants due to insufficient dispersion caused by the downwash of the northeast monsoon lead to the poor air quality of the County. Through the implementation of various control methods, including the application of permits of air pollution, fee collection of air pollution, control oil fume of catering sectors, smoke detection of diesel vehicles, regular inspection of locomotives, and subsidies for low-polluting vehicles. Moreover, to further mitigate the air pollution, additional alternative controlling strategies are also carried out, such as construction site control, prohibition of open-air agricultural waste burning, improvement of river dust, and strengthening of road cleaning operations. The combined efforts have significantly reduced air pollutants in the County. However, in order to effectively and promptly monitor the ambient air quality, the County has subsequently deployed micro-sensors, with a total of 400 IoTs (Internet of Things) micro-sensors for PM2.5 and VOC detection and 3 air quality monitoring stations of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), covering 33 townships of the County. The covered area has more than 1,300 listed factories and 5 major industrial parks; thus forming an Internet of Things (IoTs) based multi-level air quality monitoring system. The results demonstrate that the IoTs multi-level air quality sensors combined with other strategies such as “sand and gravel dredging area technology monitoring”, “banning open burning”, “intelligent management of construction sites”, “real-time notification of activation response”, “nighthawk early bird plan with micro-sensors”, “unmanned aircraft (UAV) combined with land and air to monitor abnormal emissions”, and “animal husbandry odour detection service” etc. The satisfaction improvement rate of air control, through a 2021 public survey, reached a high percentage of 81%, an increase of 46% as compared to 2018. For the air pollution complaints for the whole year of 2021, the total number was 4213 in contrast to 7088 in 2020, a reduction rate reached almost 41%. Because of the spatial-temporal features of the air quality monitoring IoTs system by the application of microsensors, the system does assist and strengthen the effectiveness of the existing air quality monitoring network of the EPA and can provide real-time control of the air quality. Therefore, the hot spots and potential pollution locations can be timely determined for law enforcement. Hence, remarkable results were obtained for the two years. That is, both reduction of public complaints and better air quality are successfully achieved through the implementation of the present IoTs system for real-time air quality monitoring throughout Pingtung County.

Keywords: IoT, PM, air quality sensor, air pollution, environmental monitoring

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Authors: A. Cheriguene, F. Chougrani

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A total of 153 wild lactic acid bacteria were isolated from goat’s milk collected from different areas in Western Algeria. The strains were identified using phenotypical, biochemical and physiological properties. API system and SDS-PAGE technique was also used in identification of the strains. Six genera were found Enterococcus (41.83%), Lactobacillus (29.40%), Lactococcus (19.60%), Leuconostoc (4.57%), Streptococcus thermophilus (3.26%) and Pediococcus (1.30%). The most abundant species were Enterococcus faecium (24 isolates), Enterococcus durans (22 isolates), Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis (25 isolates), Lactobacillus rhamnosus (09 isolates) and Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus (07 isolates). The strains were screened for production and technological properties such as acid production, aminopeptidase activity, autolytic properties, antimicrobial activity and exopolysaccharide production. In general most tested isolates showed a good biomass separation when collected by centrifugation; as for the production of the lactic acid, results revealed that our strains are weakly acidifying; nevertheless, lactococci showed a best acidifying activity compared to lactobacilli. Aminopeptidase activity was also weak in most strains; but, it was generally higher for lactobacilli compared to lactococci, where we recorded 30 units for Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus M14. Autolytic activity was generally higher for most strains, more particularly lactobacilli where we recorded values of 71.13% and 70% of autolysis rate respectively in Lactobacillus rhamnosus strains 9S10 and 9S7. Antimicrobial activity was detected in 50% of the isolates, particularly in lactobacilli where 80% of strains tested were able to inhibit the growth of other strains. Two strains could produce exopolysaccharides, E. faecium 8M6 and E. durans 7S8. Some strains were able to maintain two or three technological characteristics together.

Keywords: lactic acid bacteria, technological properties, acidification, aminopeptidase acivity (AP), autolysis

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Authors: Haya Salah, Srinivas Sharan

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Healthcare facilities use appointment systems to schedule their appointments and to manage access to their medical services. With the growing demand for outpatient care, it is now imperative to manage physician's time effectively. However, high variation in consultation duration affects the clinical scheduler's ability to estimate the appointment duration and allocate provider time appropriately. Underestimating consultation times can lead to physician's burnout, misdiagnosis, and patient dissatisfaction. On the other hand, appointment durations that are longer than required lead to doctor idle time and fewer patient visits. Therefore, a good estimation of consultation duration has the potential to improve timely access to care, resource utilization, quality of care, and patient satisfaction. Although the literature on factors influencing consultation length abound, little work has done to predict it using based data-driven approaches. Therefore, this study aims to predict consultation duration using supervised machine learning algorithms (ML), which predicts an outcome variable (e.g., consultation) based on potential features that influence the outcome. In particular, ML algorithms learn from a historical dataset without explicitly being programmed and uncover the relationship between the features and outcome variable. A subset of the data used in this study has been obtained from the electronic medical records (EMR) of four different outpatient clinics located in central Pennsylvania, USA. Also, publicly available information on doctor's characteristics such as gender and experience has been extracted from online sources. This research develops three popular ML algorithms (deep learning, random forest, gradient boosting machine) to predict the treatment time required for a patient and conducts a comparative analysis of these algorithms with respect to predictive performance. The findings of this study indicate that ML algorithms have the potential to predict the provider service time with superior accuracy. While the current approach of experience-based appointment duration estimation adopted by the clinic resulted in a mean absolute percentage error of 25.8%, the Deep learning algorithm developed in this study yielded the best performance with a MAPE of 12.24%, followed by gradient boosting machine (13.26%) and random forests (14.71%). Besides, this research also identified the critical variables affecting consultation duration to be patient type (new vs. established), doctor's experience, zip code, appointment day, and doctor's specialty. Moreover, several practical insights are obtained based on the comparative analysis of the ML algorithms. The machine learning approach presented in this study can serve as a decision support tool and could be integrated into the appointment system for effectively managing patient scheduling.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, machine learning algorithms, patient scheduling, prediction models, provider service time

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Authors: A. O. Osabo

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Polytechnic education is often described as the only sustainable academic institution that can propel massive industrial and technological growth and development in all sectors of the Nigerian economy. Because of its emphasis on science and technology, practical demonstration of skills and pivotal role in the training of low-and-high-cadre technologists and technocrats to man critical sectors of the economy, the administration of polytechnics needs to be run according to global best standards and practices in order to achieve their goals and objectives. Besides, the polytechnics need to be headed by seasoned and academically sound professionals to pursue the goals and objectives of the schools as centres of technology, learning and academic excellence. Over the years, however, polytechnics in Nigeria have suffered a wide myriad of administrative problems and challenges which have prevented them from achieving their basic goals and objectives. Apart from regulatory problems and challenges, some heads of polytechnics do not demonstrate leadership and management skills in bringing the desired innovations in the management of the polytechnics under them. These have resulted, in most cases, to the polytechnics not performing optimally in its mandate. This paper examines the administrative problems, challenges and prospects of polytechnics education in north-central Nigeria. Using a total of 97 questionnaires consisting of semi-structured interviews of yes-or-no questions shared among staff and students of the selected polytechnics and a descriptive statistical method of analysis, the study found that the inability of the polytechnics to meet their goals and objectives is caused by administrative and organizational problems and challenges, bordering on funding, accreditation, manpower, corruption and maladministration, among others. The paper thus suggests that the leadership of the polytechnics must rise up to the demands of the time in order to deal with the administrative problems and challenges affecting them and fulfill the goals and objectives for which the schools were established.

Keywords: education, administration, polytechnic, accreditation, Nigerian

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Authors: Jiajia Yao, GuanLin Wu, Fang liu, JunShuai Xue, JinCheng Zhang, Yue Hao

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Due to its outstanding material properties like high thermal conductivity and ultra-wide bandgap, Aluminum nitride (AlN) has the promising potential to provide high breakdown voltage and high output power among III-nitrides for various applications in electronics and optoelectronics. This work presents material growth and characterization of strained channel Aluminum nitride/Gallium nitride (AlN/GaN) heterostructures grown by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy (PA-MBE) on AlN-on-sapphire templates. To improve the crystal quality and manifest the ability of the PA-MBE approach, a thick AlN buffer with a thickness of 180 nm is first grown on AlN template, which acts as a back-barrier to enhance the breakdown characteristic and isolates the leakage path existing in the interface between AlN epilayer and AlN template, as well as improve the heat dissipation. The grown AlN buffer features a root-mean-square roughness of 0.2 nm over a scanned area of 2×2 µm2 measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM), and exhibits full-width at half-maximum of 95 and 407 arcsec for the (002) and (102) plane the X-ray rocking curve, respectively, tested by high resolution x-ray diffraction (HR-XRD). With a thin and strained GaN channel, the electron mobility of 294 cm2 /Vs. with a carrier concentration of 2.82×1013 cm-2 at room temperature is achieved in AlN/GaN double-channel heterostructures, and the depletion capacitance is as low as 14 pF resolved by the capacitance-voltage, which indicates the promising opportunities for future applications in next-generation high temperature, high-frequency and high-power electronics with a further increased electron mobility by optimization of heterointerface quality.

Keywords: AlN/GaN, HEMT, MBE, homoepitaxy

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Authors: J. S. P. Barbosa, L. C. Pereira, K. R. Garcia, P. C. P. Bouchardet, S. C. T. Vieira, A. O. Gomes, S. S. Funghetto, M. G. O. Kanikowski

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For this population, height seems to be a good predictor of strength and body composition. This increase in life expectancy of the Brazilian's population is associated with sociodemographic variables, but also to more access to health services in the prevention and better living conditions. With the growth of elderly population, a problem that has been a concern to health's professionals and public health at all is the use of psychoactive substances. The purpose of this study was to identify the sociodemographic profile of the elderly people who was attended at the Center of Psychosocial Care of alcohol and other drugs in the Federal District of Brazil. 408 medical records of people aged 60 years or over were evaluated, and it is possible to know that most of them were males (85.3%), with a mean age of 64 years (DP ± 4.16), 60 and 84 years and a mean age of 64 years (DP ± 4.42); 88.2% have some family ties, are married and have children, with relatives living in masonry housing. The educational level of drug users was considered low with more emphasis on those who had elementary education being the majority retired or unemployed. Regarding the street situation, there was no significance (p = 0.084), and the women (OR = 2.98) had few chances of street situations compared to men (OR = 0.89). As for substance consumption, the highest quantity of drug consumption bids in relation to the number of illicit. It did not present significant statistical value, and there is a greater probability of consumption/abuse of legal and/or illicit drugs for both sexes (OR = 0.96) for men and (OR = 1.32) for women. In relation to the use of multiple drugs, there was no significant difference between the sexes, (OR = 1.1) male sex and (OR = 0.74) female sex. Based on the results found in the present study, it was concluded that alcohol consumption is the main agent that causes vulnerability in the elderly and predisposes the latter to the consumption of other associated drugs.

Keywords: centers of attention psychosocial alcohol and drugs, elderly, mental disorder due to drug use, street situations

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Authors: Edith Kamakune

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As much as Indigenous rights are presumed to be part of the broad human rights regime, members of the indigenous communities have continually suffered violations, exclusions, and threat. There are a number of steps taken from the international community in trying to bridge the gap, and this has been through the inclusion of provisions as well as the passing of conventions and declarations with specific reference to the rights of indigenous peoples. Some examples of indigenous people include theSiberian Yupik of St Lawrence Island; the Ute of Utah; the Cree of Alberta, and the Xosa andKhoiKhoi of Southern Africa. Uganda’s wide cultural heritage has played a key role in the failure to pay special attention to the needs of the rights of indigenous peoples. The 1995 Constitution and the Land Act of 1998 provide for abstract land rights without necessarily paying attention to indigenous communities’ special needs. Basongora are a pastoralist community in Western Uganda whose ancestral land is the present Queen Elizabeth National Park of Western Uganda, Virunga National Park of Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and the small percentage of the low lands under the Rwenzori Mountains. Their values and livelihood are embedded in their strong attachment to the land, and this has been at stake for the last about 90 Years. This research was aimed atinvestigating the relationship between land rights and the right to cultural identity among indigenous communities, looking at the policy available on land and culture, and whether the policies are sensitive of the specific issues of vulnerable ethnic groups; and largely the effect of land on the right to cultural identity. The research was guided by three objectives: to examine and contextualize the concept of land rights among the Basongora community; to assess the policy frame work available for the protection of the Basongora community; to investigate the forms of vulnerability of the Basongora community. Quantitative and qualitative methods were used. a case of Kaseseand Kampala Districts were purposefully selected .138 people were recruited through random and nonrandom techniques to participate in the study, and these were 70 questionnaire respondents; 20 face to face interviews respondents; 5 key informants, and 43 participants in focus group discussions; The study established that Land is communally held and used and thatit continues to be a central source of livelihood for the Basongora; land rights are important in multiplication of herds; preservation, development, and promotion of culture and language. Research found gaps in the policy framework since the policies are concerned with tenure issues and the general provisions areambiguous. Oftenly, the Basongora are not called upon to participate in decision making processes, even on issues that affect them. The research findings call forauthorities to allow Basongora to access Queen Elizabeth National Park land for pasture during particular seasons of the year, especially during the dry seasons; land use policy; need for a clear alignment of the description of indigenous communitiesunder the constitution (Uganda, 1995) to the international definition.

Keywords: cultural identity, land rights, protection, uganda

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Authors: Ieva Jokubauskaite, Alvyra Slepetiene, Danute Karcauskiene, Inga Liaudanskiene, Kristina Amaleviciute

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Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the key soil quality and ecological stability indicator, therefore, carbon accumulation in stable forms not only supports and increases the organic matter content in the soil, but also has a positive effect on the quality of soil and the whole ecosystem. Soil liming is one of the most common ways to improve the carbon sequestration in the soil. Determination of the optimum intensity and combinations of liming in order to ensure the optimal carbon quantitative and qualitative parameters is one of the most important tasks of this work. The field experiments were carried out at the Vezaiciai Branch of Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry (LRCAF) during the 2011–2013 period. The effect of liming with different intensity (at a rate 0.5 every 7 years and 2.0 every 3-4 years) was investigated in the topsoil of acid moraine loam Bathygleyic Dystric Glossic Retisol. Chemical analyses were carried out at the Chemical Research Laboratory of Institute of Agriculture, LRCAF. Soil samples for chemical analyses were taken from the topsoil after harvesting. SOC was determined by the Tyurin method modified by Nikitin, measuring with spectrometer Cary 50 (VARIAN) at 590 nm wavelength using glucose standards. SOC fractional composition was determined by Ponomareva and Plotnikova version of classical Tyurin method. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was analyzed using an ion chromatograph SKALAR in water extract at soil-water ratio 1:5. Spectral properties (E4/E6 ratio) of humic acids were determined by measuring the absorbance of humic and fulvic acids solutions at 465 and 665 nm. Our study showed a negative statistically significant effect of periodical liming (at 0.5 and 2.0 liming rates) on SOC content in the soil. The content of SOC was 1.45% in the unlimed treatment, while in periodically limed at 2.0 liming rate every 3–4 years it was approximately by 0.18 percentage points lower. It was revealed that liming significantly decreased the DOC concentration in the soil. The lowest concentration of DOC (0.156 g kg-1) was established in the most intensively limed (2.0 liming rate every 3–4 years) treatment. Soil liming exerted an increase of all humic acids and fulvic acid bounded with calcium fractions content in the topsoil. Soil liming resulted in the accumulation of valuable humic acids. Due to the applied liming, the HR/FR ratio, indicating the quality of humus increased to 1.08 compared with that in unlimed soil (0.81). Intensive soil liming promoted the formation of humic acids in which groups of carboxylic and phenolic compounds predominated. These humic acids are characterized by a higher degree of condensation of aromatic compounds and in this way determine the intensive organic matter humification processes in the soil. The results of this research provide us with the clear information on the characteristics of SOC change, which could be very useful to guide the climate policy and sustainable soil management.

Keywords: acid soil, carbon sequestration, long–term liming, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Ajay Kumar, Shamily Jaggi

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In developing countries like India development of modern technologies has been a key determinant in accelerating industrialization and urbanization. But in the pursuit of rapid economic growth, development is considered a top priority, while environmental protection is not given the same importance. Thus, a number of industries sited haphazardly have been established, leading to a deterioration of natural resources like water, soil and air. As a result, environmental pollution is tremendously increasing due to industrialization and mechanization that are serving to fulfill the demands of the population. With the increasing population, demand for bricks for construction work is also increasing, establishing the brick industry as a growing industry. Brick production requires two main resources; water as a source of life, and soil, as a living environment. Water and soil conservation is a critical issue in areas facing scarcity of water and soil resources. The purpose of this review paper is to provide a brief overview of the theoretical frameworks used in the analysis of the adoption and/or acceptance of soil and water conservation practices in the brick industry. Different frameworks and models have been used in the analysis of the adoption and/or acceptance of new technologies and practices; these include the technology acceptance model, motivational model, theory of reasoned action, innovation diffusion theory, theory of planned behavior, and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology. However, every model has some limitations, such as not considering environmental/contextual and economic factors that may affect the individual’s intention to perform a behavior. The paper concludes that in comparing other models, the UTAUT seems a better model for understanding the dynamics of acceptance and adoption of water and soil conservation practices.

Keywords: brick kiln, water conservation, soil conservation, unified theory of acceptance and use of technology, technology adoption

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Authors: Armend Kelmendi, Adnan Ahmeti

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The purpose of our study was to assess the impact of soccer in the overall wealth fare (education, health, and economic prosperity) of youth in Kosovo (age: 7-18). The research conducted measured a number of parameters (training methodologies, conditions, community leadership impact) in a sample consisting of 6 different football clubs’ academies across the country. Fifty (50) male and female football youngsters volunteered in this study. To generate more reliable results, the analysis was conducted with the help of a set of effective project management tools and techniques (Gantt chart, Logic Network, PERT chart, Work Breakdown Structure, and Budgeting Analysis). The interviewees were interviewed under a specific lens of categories (impact in education, health, and economic prosperity). A set of questions were asked i.e. what has football provided to you and the community you live in?; Did football increase your confidence and shaped your life for better?; What was the main reason you started training in football? The results generated explain how a single sport, namely that of football in Kosovo can make a huge social change, improving key social factors in a society. There was a considerable difference between the youth clubs as far as training conditions are concerned. The study found out that despite financial constraints, two out of six clubs managed to produce twice as more talented players that were introduced to professional primary league teams in Kosovo and Albania, including other soccer teams in the region, Europe, and Asia. The study indicates that better sports policy must be formulated and associated with important financial investments in soccer for it to be considered fruitful and beneficial for players of 18 plus years of age, namely professionals.

Keywords: youth, prosperity, conditions, investments, growth, free movement

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Authors: Nicholas Anderson, Steven Petersen, Tom Bates, Val Anderson

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Under the multiple-use management regime established in the United States for federally owned lands, government agencies have come under pressure from commercial apiaries to grant permits for the summer pasturing of honeybees on government lands. Federal agencies have struggled to integrate honeybees into their management plans and have little information to make regulations that resolve how many colonies should be allowed in a single location and at what distance sets of hives should be placed. Many conservation groups have voiced their concerns regarding the introduction of honeybees to these natural lands, as they may outcompete and displace native pollinating species. Assessing the quality of an area in regard to its floral resources, pollen, and nectar can be important when attempting to create regulations for the integration of commercial honeybee operations into a native ecosystem. Areas with greater floral resources may be able to support larger numbers of honeybee colonies, while poorer resource areas may be less resilient to introduced disturbances. Attempts are made in this study to determine flower cover using high resolution drone imagery to help assess the floral resource availability to pollinators in high elevation, tall forb communities. This knowledge will help in determining the potential that different areas may have for honeybee pasturing and honey production. Roughly 700 images were captured at 23m above ground level using a drone equipped with a Sony QX1 RGB 20-megapixel camera. These images were stitched together using Pix4D, resulting in a 60m diameter high-resolution mosaic of a tall forb meadow. Using the program ENVI, a supervised maximum likelihood classification was conducted to calculate the percentage of total flower cover and flower cover by color (blue, white, and yellow). A complete vegetation inventory was taken on site, and the major flowers contributing to each color class were noted. An accuracy assessment was performed on the classification yielding an 89% overall accuracy and a Kappa Statistic of 0.855. With this level of accuracy, drones provide an affordable and time efficient method for the assessment of floral cover in large areas. The proximal step of this project will now be to determine the average pollen and nectar loads carried by each flower species. The addition of this knowledge will result in a quantifiable method of measuring pollen and nectar resources of entire landscapes. This information will not only help land managers determine stocking rates for honeybees on public lands but also has applications in the agricultural setting, aiding producers in the determination of the number of honeybee colonies necessary for proper pollination of fruit and nut crops.

Keywords: honeybee, flower, pollinator, remote sensing

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Authors: Gordana Branković, Vesna Dragičević, Dejan Dodig, Desimir Knežević, Srbislav Denčić, Gordana Šurlan-Momirović

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Phytic acid is a major pool in the flux of phosphorus through agroecosystems and represents a sum equivalent to > 50% of all phosphorus fertilizer used annually. Nutrition rich in phytic acid can substantially decrease micronutrients apsorption as calcium, zink, iron, manganese, copper due to phytate salts excretion by human and non-ruminant animals as poultry, swine and fish, having in common very scarce phytase activity, and consequently the ability to digest and utilize phytic acid, thus phytic acid derived phosphorus in animal waste contributes to water pollution. The tested accessions consisted of 15 genotypes of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. ssp. vulgare) and of 15 genotypes of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.). The trials were sown at the three test sites in Serbia: Rimski Šančevi (RS) (45º19´51´´N; 19º50´59´´E), Zemun Polje (ZP) (44º52´N; 20º19´E) and Padinska Skela (PS) (44º57´N 20º26´E) during two vegetation seasons 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. The experimental design was randomized complete block design with four replications. The elementary plot consisted of 3 internal rows of 0.6 m2 area (3 × 0.2 m × 1 m). Grains were grinded with Laboratory Mill 120 Perten (“Perten”, Sweden) (particles size < 500 μm) and flour was used for the analysis. Phytic acid grain content was determined spectrophotometrically with the Shimadzu UV-1601 spectrophotometer (Shimadzu Corporation, Japan). Objectives of this study were to determine: i) variability and stability of the phytic acid content among selected genotypes of bread and durum wheat, ii) predominant source of variation regarding genotype (G), environment (E) and genotype × environment interaction (GEI) from the multi-environment trial, iii) influence of climatic variables on the GEI for the phytic acid content. Based on the analysis of variance it had been determined that the variation of phytic acid content was predominantly influenced by environment in durum wheat, while the GEI prevailed for the variation of the phytic acid content in bread wheat. Phytic acid content expressed on the dry mass basis was in the range 14.21-17.86 mg g-1 with the average of 16.05 mg g-1 for bread wheat and 14.63-16.78 mg g-1 with the average of 15.91 mg g-1 for durum wheat. Average-environment coordination view of the genotype by environment (GGE) biplot was used for the selection of the most desirable genotypes for breeding for low phytic acid content in the sense of good stability and lower level of phytic acid content. The most desirable genotypes of bread and durum wheat for breeding for phytic acid were Apache and 37EDUYT /07 No. 7849. Models of climatic factors in the highest percentage (> 91%) were useful in interpreting GEI for phytic acid content, and included relative humidity in June, sunshine hours in April, mean temperature in April and winter moisture reserves for genotypes of bread wheat, as well as precipitation in June and April, maximum temperature in April and mean temperature in June for genotypes of durum wheat.

Keywords: genotype × environment interaction, phytic acid, stability, variability

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Authors: Inese Tenberga

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Undoubtedly, the focus of the present capitalist system of finance has shifted from the concept of productivity of money to the ‘cult of money’, which is characterized by such notions as speculative activity, squander, self-profit, vested interest, etc. The author is certain that a civilized society cannot follow this economic path any longer and therefore suggests that one solution would be to integrate the Islamic financial model in the banking sector of the EU to overcome its economic vulnerability and structurally transform its economies or build resilience against shocks and crisis. The researcher analyses the Islamic financial model, which is providing the basis for the concept of non-productivity of money, and proposes to consider it as a new paradigm of economic thinking. The author argues that it seeks to establish a broad-based economic well-being with an optimum rate of economic growth, socio-economic justice, equitable distribution of income and wealth. Furthermore, the author analyses and proposes to use the experience of member states of the Islamic Development Bank for the formation of a new EU interest free banking. It is offered to create within the EU banking system a credit sector and investment sector respectively. As a part of the latter, it is recommended to separate investment banks specializing in speculative investments and non­speculative investment banks. Meanwhile, understanding of the idea of Islamic banking exclusively from the perspective of the manner of yielding profit that differs from credit banking, without considering the legal, social, ethical guidelines of Islam impedes to value objectively the advantages of this type of financial activities at the non-Islamic jurisdictions. However, the author comes to the conclusion the imperative of justice and virtue, which is inherent to all of us, exists regardless of religion. The author concludes that the global community should adopt the experience of the Muslim countries and focus on the Islamic banking model.

Keywords: credit sector, EU banking system, investment sector, Islamic banking

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Authors: Bastien Sanglard, Simon Cayez, Guillaume Viau, Thomas Blon, Julian Carrey, Sébastien Lachaize

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The need to develop clean production processes is a key challenge of any industry. Steel and iron industries are particularly concerned since they emit 6.8% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. One key step of the process is the high-temperature reduction of iron ore using coke, leading to large amounts of CO2 emissions. One route to decrease impacts is to get rid of fossil fuels by changing both the heat source and the reducer. The present work aims at investigating experimentally the possibility to use concentrated solar energy and carbon-free reducing agents. Two sets of experimentations were realized. First, in situ X-ray diffraction on pure and industrial powder of hematite was realized to study the phase evolution as a function of temperature during reduction under hydrogen and ammonia. Secondly, experiments were performed on industrial iron ore pellets, which were reduced by NH3 or H2 into a “solar furnace” composed of a controllable 1600W Xenon lamp to simulate and control the solar concentrated irradiation of a glass reactor and of a diaphragm to control light flux. Temperature and pressure were recorded during each experiment via thermocouples and pressure sensors. The percentage of iron oxide converted to iron (called thereafter “reduction ratio”) was found through Rietveld refinement. The power of the light source and the reduction time were varied. Results obtained in the diffractometer reaction chamber show that iron begins to form at 300°C with pure Fe2O3 powder and 400°C with industrial iron ore when maintained at this temperature for 60 minutes and 80 minutes, respectively. Magnetite and wuestite are detected on both powders during the reduction under hydrogen; under ammonia, iron nitride is also detected for temperatures between400°C and 600°C. All the iron oxide was converted to iron for a reaction of 60 min at 500°C, whereas a conversion ratio of 96% was reached with industrial powder for a reaction of 240 min at 600°C under hydrogen. Under ammonia, full conversion was also reached after 240 min of reduction at 600 °C. For experimentations into the solar furnace with iron ore pellets, the lamp power and the shutter opening were varied. An 83.2% conversion ratio was obtained with a light power of 67 W/cm2 without turning over the pellets. Nevertheless, under the same conditions, turning over the pellets in the middle of the experiment permits to reach a conversion ratio of 86.4%. A reduction ratio of 95% was reached with an exposure of 16 min by turning over pellets at half time with a flux of 169W/cm2. Similar or slightly better results were obtained under an ammonia reducing atmosphere. Under the same flux, the highest reduction yield of 97.3% was obtained under ammonia after 28 minutes of exposure. The chemical reaction itself, including the solar heat source, does not produce any greenhouse gases, so solar metallurgy represents a serious way to reduce greenhouse gas emission of metallurgy industry. Nevertheless, the ecological impact of the reducers must be investigated, which will be done in future work.

Keywords: solar concentration, metallurgy, ammonia, hydrogen, sustainability

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Authors: Anoff Anim, Lila Mahmound, Maria Katsikogianni, Sanjit Nayak

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Sustained and controlled delivery of antimicrobial drugs have been largely studied recently using metal organic frameworks (MOFs)and different polymers. However, much attention has not been given to combining both MOFs and biodegradable polymers which would be a good strategy in providing a sustained gradual release of the drugs. Herein, we report a comparative study of the sustained and controlled release of widely used antibacterial drugs, cephalexin and metronidazole, from zinc-based MOF-5 incorporated in biodegradable polycaprolactone (PCL) and poly-lactic glycolic acid (PLGA) membranes. Cephalexin and metronidazole were separately incorporated in MOF-5 post-synthetically, followed by their integration into biodegradable PLGA and PCL membranes. The pristine MOF-5 and the loaded MOFs were thoroughly characterized by FT-IR, SEM, TGA and PXRD. Drug release studies were carried out to assess the release rate of the drugs in PBS and distilled water for up to 48 hours using UV-Vis Spectroscopy. Four bacterial strains from both the Gram-positive and Gram-negative types, Staphylococus aureus, Staphylococuss epidermidis, Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter baumanii, were tested against the pristine MOF, pure drugs, loaded MOFs and the drug-loaded MOF-polymer composites. Metronidazole-loaded MOF-5 composite of PLGA (PLGA-Met@MOF-5) was found to show highest efficiency to inhibit the growth of S. epidermidis compared to the other bacteria strains while maintaining a sustained minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). This study demonstrates that the combination of biodegradable MOF-polymer composites can provide an efficient platform for sustained and controlled release of antimicrobial drugs, and can be a potential strategy to integrate them in biomedical devices.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, biodegradable polymers, cephalexin, drug release metronidazole, MOF-5, PCL, PLGA

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Authors: Gong Zhang

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The villages surrounding protected areas of the Sites are a unique vernacular heritage due to their geographical location, long history, and the combination of nature and humanity. With the construction of more and more heritage sites, the villages around them are faced with the conflict between conservation and development. How to carry out sustainable micro-renewal while preserving the authenticity of the vernacular heritage is of great importance for the co-growth of the village residents and the site. This paper focuses on the process of revitalization of the villages nearby the Erlitou Site Park in China, aiming to study how sustainable village regeneration and conservation can be carried out through the activation of public culture. Firstly, through field research and literature review, this paper studies the vernacular morphology and architecture types of more than ten historical villages around the Erlitou site and investigates the traditional vernacular culture and the daily public activities of the local villagers. Secondly, taking the nearest village to the site area, Ranzhuang Village, as an example, the paper studies the role of public cultural activity interventions on the three different stages of vernacular heritage renewal: master planning, architecture group, and acupuncture-style micro-renewal of individual buildings, aiming to summarise its impact on villagers' lives and vernacular heritage. This paper concludes that a living regeneration with a moderate public cultural activity intervention can promote the symbiosis between the heritage site and the life of the villagers and increase the vitality of the village. This study aims to use the example of village regeneration in Henan, China, as a sustainable reference for the co-development of heritage sites and villages in other parts of the world.

Keywords: Erlitou site, public culture intervention, sustainable, vernacular heritage

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Authors: Shaima A. Al Mansoori

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Eco-cities have become part of the broader and universal discourse and embrace of sustainable communities. Given the ideals and ‘potential’ benefits of eco-cities for people, the environment and prosperity, hardly can an argument be made against the desirability of eco-cities. Yet, this paper posits that it is necessary for urban scholars, technocrats and policy makers to engage in discussions of the pragmatism of implementing the ideals of eco-cities, for example, from the political, budgetary, cultural and other dimensions. In the context of such discourse, this paper examines the feasibility of one of the cardinal principles and goals of eco-cities, which is the reduction or elimination of pollution through various creative and innovative initiatives, in the UAE. This paper contends and argues that, laudable and desirable as this goal is, it is a polylemma and, therefore, overly ambitious and practically unattainable in the UAE. The paper uses the mixed method research strategy, in which data is sourced from secondary and general sources through desktop research, from public records in governmental agencies, and from the conceptual academic and professional literature. Information from these sources will be used, first, to define and review pollution as a concept and multifaceted phenomenon with multidimensional impacts. Second, the paper will use society’s five goal clusters as a framework to identify key causes and impacts of pollution in the UAE. Third, the paper will identify and analyze specific public policies, programs and projects that make pollution in the UAE a polylemma. Fourth, the paper will argue that the phenomenal rates of population increase, urbanization, economic growth, consumerism and development in the UAE make pollution an inevitable product and burden that society must live with. This ‘reality’ makes the goal and desire of pollution-free cities pursuable but unattainable. The paper will conclude by identifying and advocating creative and innovative initiatives that can be taken by the various stakeholders in the country to reduce and mitigate pollution in the short- and long-term.

Keywords: goal clusters, pollution, polylemma, sustainable communities

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Authors: Austin Jiang, Richard M. Salmon, Nicholas W. Morrell, Wei Li

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BMP10 is highly expressed in the developing heart and plays essential roles in cardiogenesis. BMP10 deletion in mice results in embryonic lethality due to impaired cardiac development. In adults, BMP10 expression is restricted to the right atrium, though ventricular hypertrophy is accompanied by increased BMP10 expression in a rat hypertension model. However, reports of BMP10 activity in the circulation are inconclusive. In particular it is not known whether in vivo secreted BMP10 is active or whether additional factors are required to achieve its bioactivity. It has been shown that high-affinity binding of the BMP10 prodomain to the mature ligand inhibits BMP10 signaling activity in C2C12 cells, and it was proposed that prodomain-bound BMP10 (pBMP10) complex is latent. In this study, we demonstrated that the BMP10 prodomain did not inhibit BMP10 signaling activity in multiple endothelial cells, and that recombinant human pBMP10 complex, expressed in mammalian cells and purified under native conditions, was fully active. In addition, both BMP10 in human plasma and BMP10 secreted from the mouse right atrium were fully active. Finally, we confirmed that active BMP10 secreted from mouse right atrium was in the prodomain-bound form. Our data suggest that circulating BMP10 in adults is fully active and that the reported vascular quiescence function of BMP10 in vivo is due to the direct activity of pBMP10 and does not require an additional activation step. Moreover, being an active ligand, recombinant pBMP10 may have therapeutic potential as an endothelial-selective BMP ligand, in conditions characterized by loss of BMP9/10 signaling.

Keywords: bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10), endothelial cell, signal transduction, transforming growth factor beta (TGF-B)

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Authors: Sami M. Alshareef

Abstract:

The rapid growth of smart grid technology has brought significant advancements to the power industry. However, with the increasing interconnectivity and reliance on information and communication technologies, smart grids have become vulnerable to cyber-attacks, posing significant threats to the reliable operation of power systems. Among the critical components of smart grids, the Automatic Generation Control (AGC) system plays a vital role in maintaining the balance between generation and load demand. Therefore, protecting the AGC system from cyber threats is of paramount importance to maintain grid stability and prevent disruptions. Traditional security measures often fall short in addressing sophisticated and evolving cyber threats, necessitating the exploration of innovative approaches. Machine learning, with its ability to analyze vast amounts of data and learn patterns, has emerged as a promising solution to enhance AGC system security. Therefore, this research proposal aims to address the challenges associated with detecting and mitigating cyber-attacks on AGC in smart grids by leveraging machine learning techniques on automatic generation control of two-area power systems. By utilizing historical data, the proposed system will learn the normal behavior patterns of AGC and identify deviations caused by cyber-attacks. Once an attack is detected, appropriate mitigation strategies will be employed to safeguard the AGC system. The outcomes of this research will provide power system operators and administrators with valuable insights into the vulnerabilities of AGC systems in smart grids and offer practical solutions to enhance their cyber resilience.

Keywords: machine learning, cyber-attacks, automatic generation control, smart grid

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Authors: Alessio Giovannelli, Claudia Cocozza, Enrico Marchi, Valerio Giorgio Muzzini, Eleftherios Touloupakis, Raffaella Margherita Zampieri

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In Mediterranean countries, forest fires are recurrent events that need to be considered as a central component of regional and global forest management strategies and biodiversity restoration programmes. The response of tree function to fire damage can vary widely, also taking into account species, season, age of the tree, etc. Trees that survive fire may have different levels of physiological functionality, which may result in reduced growth or increased susceptibility to delayed mortality. An approach to assessing irreversible physiological injury in trees could help to inform management decisions at burned sites for biodiversity restoration, environmental safety and understanding of ecosystem functional adaptations. Physiological proxies for latent tree mortality, such as cambial cell death, reduced or absent starch and soluble sugar content in C sinks, and ethanol accumulation in the phloem, are considered proxies for cell death. However, their determination requires time-consuming laboratory protocols, making the approach unfeasible as a practical option in the field, but recent findings have shown that biosensors could be usefully applied to overcome these limitations. The study will focus on the development of amperometric biosensors capable of detecting a few target molecules in the phloem and xylem (such as ethanol and glucose) that have recently been identified as proxies for latent tree mortality. The results of a specific experiment on a stand of Pinus pinaster subjected to prescribed fire are reported.

Keywords: enzymes, glucose, ethanol, prescribed fires

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Authors: Marion Billard

Abstract:

This paper will focus on the question of the real relationship between young people and fake news. Fake news is one of today’s main issues in the world of information and communication. Social media and its democratization helped to spread false information. According to traditional beliefs, young people are more inclined to believe what they read through social media. But, the individuals concerned, think that they are more inclined to make a distinction between real and fake news. This phenomenon is due to their use of the internet and social media from an early age. During the 2016 and 2017 French and American presidential campaigns, the term fake news was in the mouth of the entire world and became a real issue in the field of information. While young people were informing themselves with newspapers or television until the beginning of the ’90s, Gen Z (meaning people born between 1997 and 2010), has always been immersed in this world of fast communication. They know how to use social media from a young age and the internet has no secret for them. Today, despite the sporadic use of traditional media, young people tend to turn to their smartphones and social networks such as Instagram or Twitter to stay abreast of the latest news. The growth of social media information led to an “ambient journalism”, giving access to an endless quantity of information. Waking up in the morning, young people will see little posts with short texts supplying the essential of the news, without, for the most, many details. As a result, impressionable people are not able to do a distinction between real media, and “junk news” or Fake News. This massive use of social media is probably explained by the inability of the youngsters to find connections between the communication of the traditional media and what they are living. The question arises if this over-confidence of the young people in their ability to distinguish between accurate and fake news would not make it more difficult for them to examine critically the information. Their relationship with media and fake news is more complex than popular opinion. Today’s young people are not the master in the quest for information, nor inherently the most impressionable public on social media.

Keywords: fake news, youngsters, social media, information, generation

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Authors: Vinay Kumar, M. Kishor, Sathyanarayana Rao Ts

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Background: Growth of elderly people in the general population in recent years is termed as ‘greying of the world’ where there is a shift from high mortality & fertility to low mortality and fertility, resulting in an increased proportion of older people as seen in India. Improved health care promises longevity but socio-economic factors like poverty, joint families and poor services pose a psychological threat. Epidemiological data regarding the prevalence of mental disorders in geriatric population with physical illness is required for proper health planning. Methods: Sixty consecutive elderly patients aged 60 years or above of both sexes, reporting with physical illness to general outpatient registration counter of JSS Medical College and Hospital, Mysore, India, were considered for the Study. With informed consent, they were screened with General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and were further evaluated for diagnosing mental disorders according to WHO International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) criteria. Results: Mental disorders were detected in 48.3%, predominantly depressive disorders, nicotine dependence, generalized anxiety disorder, alcohol dependence and least was dementia. Most common physical illness was cardiovascular disease followed by metabolic, respiratory and other diseases. Depressive disorders, substance dependence and dementia were more associated with cardiovascular disease compared to metabolic disease and respiratory diseases were more associated with nicotine dependence. Conclusions: Depression and Substance use disorders among elderly population is of concern, which needs to be further studied with larger population. Psychiatric morbidity will adversely have an impact on physical illness which needs proper assessment and management. This will enhance our understanding and prioritize our planning for future.

Keywords: Geriatric, mental disorders, physical illness, psychiatry

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Authors: K. Maliki, A. Ajayi, O. M. Makanjuola, O. J. Adebowale

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Cocoyam is herbaceous perennial plant which belongs to the family Araceae and genus xanthosoma or cococasia is mostly cultivated as food crop. It is very rich in Vitamin B6, Magnesium and also in dietary fiber. Matured cocoyam is eaten boiled, Fried or roasted in Nigeria. It can also be dried and used to make flour. Food drying is a method of food preservation in which food is dried, thus inhibit the growth of bacteria yeast and mold through the removal of water. Drying effect on the proximate composition and functional properties of cocoyam flour were investigated. Freshly harvested cocoyam cultivars at matured level were washed with portable water, peeled, sliced into 0.3mm thickness blanch in boiling water at 100°C for 15 minutes and dried using sun drying oven and cabinet dryers. The blanched slices were divided into three lots and were subjected to different drying methods. The dried cocoyam slices were milled into flour using Apex mill and packed into Low Density Polyethylene Film (LDPE) 75 Micron 4 thickness and kept for four months under ambient temperature before analysis. The results showed that the moisture content, ash, crude fiber, fat, protein and carbohydrate ranged from 7.35% to 13.89%, 1.45% to 3.3%, 1.2% to 3.41%, 2.1% to 3.1%, 6.30% to 9.1% and 66% to 82% respectively. The functional properties of the cocoyam flour ranged from 1. 65ml/g to 4.24ml/g water absorption capacity, 0.85ml/g to 2.11ml/g oil absorption capacity 0.56ml/g and 0.78ml/g bulk density and 4.91% to 6.80% swelling capacity. The result showed that there was not significant difference (P ≥ 0.5) across the various drying methods used. Cabinet drying method was found to have the best quality characteristic values than the other drying methods. In conclusion, drying of cocoyam could be used for value addition and provide extension to shelf-life.

Keywords: cocoyam flour, drying, cabinet dryer, oven dryer

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Authors: N. Valderrama, W. Albarracín, N. Algecira

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It was studied the effect of the inclusion of thyme and rosemary essential oils into chitosan films, as well as the microbiological and physical properties when storing chitosan film with and without the mentioned inclusion. The film forming solution was prepared by dissolving chitosan (2%, w/v), polysorbate 80 (4% w/w CH) and glycerol (16% w/w CH) in aqueous lactic acid solutions (control). The thyme (TEO) and rosemary (REO) essential oils (EOs) were included 1:1 w/w (EOs:CH) on their combination 50/50 (TEO:REO). The films were stored at temperatures of 5, 20, 33°C and a relative humidity of 75% during four weeks. The films with essential oil inclusion did not show an antimicrobial activity against strains. This behavior could be explained because the chitosan only inhibits the growth of microorganisms in direct contact with the active sites. However, the inhibition capacity of TEO was higher than the REO and a synergic effect between TEO:REO was found for S. enteritidis strains in the chitosan solution. Some physical properties were modified by the inclusion of essential oils. The addition of essential oils does not affect the mechanical properties (tensile strength, elongation at break, puncture deformation), the water solubility, the swelling index nor the DSC behavior. However, the essential oil inclusion can significantly decrease the thickness, the moisture content, and the L* value of films whereas the b* value increased due to molecular interactions between the polymeric matrix, the loosing of the structure, and the chemical modifications. On the other hand, the temperature and time of storage changed some physical properties on the chitosan films. This could have occurred because of chemical changes, such as swelling in the presence of high humidity air and the reacetylation of amino groups. In the majority of cases, properties such as moisture content, tensile strength, elongation at break, puncture deformation, a*, b*, chrome, ΔE increased whereas water resistance, swelling index, L*, and hue angle decreased.

Keywords: chitosan, food additives, modified films, polymers

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Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

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Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

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Authors: Dinesh K. S., D. R. C. V. Jayadevan

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Autism is the most prevalent of a subset of the disorders organized under the umbrella of pervasive developmental disorders. After the publication of Andrew Wakefield's paper in lancet, many critiques deny this connection even without looking in to the matter. The British Medical Journal even put an editorial regarding this issue. BMJ 2010; 340:c1807. But ayurveda has ample of evidences to believe this connectivity. Dysbiosis, yeast growth of the gut, nutritional deficiencies, enzyme deficiencies, essential fatty acid deficiencies, Gastro esophageal reflux disease, indigestion, inflammatory bowel, chronic constipation & its cascade are few of them to note. The purpose of this paper is to present the observed changes in the behavioural symptoms of autistic babies after a gut management protocol which is a usual programme of our autism treatment plan especially after dysbiotic changes after antibiotic administration. Is there any correlation between changes (if significant) in gut symptoms and behavioral problems of autistic babies especially after a dysbiosis induced by antibiotics. Retrospective analysis of the case sheets of autistic patients admitted in Vaidyaratnam P.S.Varier Ayurveda College hospital, kottakkal,kerala, india from September 2010 are taken for the data processing. Autistic patients are used to come to this hospital as a part of their usual course of treatment. We investigated 40 cases diagnosed as autistic by clinical psychologists from different institutions who had dysbiosis induced by antibiotics. Significant change in gut symptoms before and after treatment p<0.05 in most of its components Significant change in behavioral symptoms before and after treatments p<0.05 in most of the components Correlation between gut symptoms change and behavioral symptoms changes after treatment is + 0.86. Conclusion : Selected Polyherbal Ayurveda treatment has significant role to play to make changes abnormal behaviors in autistic babies and has a positive correlation with changes in gut symptoms induced by dysbiosis of antibiotic intake.

Keywords: ayurveda, autism, dysbiosis, antibiotic

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Authors: Frederick Huie, Lauren Fusfeld, William Burchenal, Scott Howell, Alyssa McVey, Thomas F. Goss

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Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease characterized by memory loss and cognitive decline that presents a substantial economic burden for patients and health insurers in the US. This study evaluates the payer budget impact of the DISCERN™ test in the diagnosis and management of patients with symptoms of dementia evaluated for AD. DISCERN™ comprises three assays that assess critical factors related to AD that regulate memory, formation of synaptic connections among neurons, and levels of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain and can provide a quicker, more accurate diagnosis than tests in the current diagnostic pathway (CDP). An Excel-based model with a three-year horizon was developed to assess the budget impact of DISCERN™ compared with CDP in a Medicare Advantage plan with 1M beneficiaries. Model parameters were identified through a literature review and were verified through consultation with clinicians experienced in diagnosis and management of AD. The model assesses direct medical costs/savings for patients based on the following categories: •Diagnosis: costs of diagnosis using DISCERN™ and CDP. •False Negative (FN) diagnosis: incremental cost of care avoidable with a correct AD diagnosis and appropriately directed medication. •True Positive (TP) diagnosis: AD medication costs; cost from a later TP diagnosis with the CDP versus DISCERN™ in the year of diagnosis, and savings from the delay in AD progression due to appropriate AD medication in patients who are correctly diagnosed after a FN diagnosis.•False Positive (FP) diagnosis: cost of AD medication for patients who do not have AD. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of varying key clinical and cost parameters ±10%. An additional scenario analysis was developed to evaluate the impact of individual inputs. In the base scenario, DISCERN™ is estimated to decrease costs by $4.75M over three years, equating to approximately $63.11 saved per test per year for a cohort followed over three years. While the diagnosis cost is higher with DISCERN™ than with CDP modalities, this cost is offset by the higher overall costs associated with CDP due to the longer time needed to receive a TP diagnosis and the larger number of patients who receive a FN diagnosis and progress more rapidly than if they had received appropriate AD medication. The sensitivity analysis shows that the three parameters with the greatest impact on savings are: reduced sensitivity of DISCERN™, improved sensitivity of the CDP, and a reduction in the percentage of disease progression that is avoided with appropriate AD medication. A scenario analysis in which DISCERN™ reduces the utilization for patients of computed tomography from 21% in the base case to 16%, magnetic resonance imaging from 37% to 27% and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker testing, positive emission tomography, electroencephalograms, and polysomnography testing from 4%, 5%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, in the base case to 0%, results in an overall three-year net savings of $14.5M. DISCERN™ improves the rate of accurate, definitive diagnosis of AD earlier in the disease and may generate savings for Medicare Advantage plans.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, budget, dementia, diagnosis.

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