Search results for: mode choice models

Authors: Arefeh Lotfi, Mahdi Babaei, Ayda Mashhadizadeh, Samira Nikpour, Morteza Bagheri

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the key factors in accidents’ severity at rail-road level crossings. The data required for this study is obtained from both accident and inventory database of Iran Railways during 2009-2015. The Ordered Probit model is developed using SPSS software to identify the significant factors in the accident severity at rail-road level crossings. The results show that 'train speed', 'vehicle type' and 'weather' are the most important factors affecting the severity of the accident. The results of these studies assist to allocate resources in the right place. This paper suggests mandating the regulations to reduce train speed at rail-road level crossings in bad weather conditions to improve the safety of rail-road level crossings.

Keywords: rail-road level crossing, ordered probit model, accidents’ severity, significant factors

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: Yi Yau, Chia-Huei Hsiao

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The elderly society is already a problem of globalization, and Taiwan will enter a super-aged society in 2025. Therefore, how to improve the health of the elderly and reduce the government's social burden is an important issue at present. Exercise is the best medical care, and it is also a healthy activity for people to live a healthy life. Facing the super-aged society in the future, it is necessary to attract them to participate in sports voluntarily through sports promotion so that they can live healthy and independent lives and continue to participate in society to enhance the well-being of the elderly. Experiential marketing and sports participation are closely related. In the past, it was mainly aimed at consumer behavior at the commercial level. At present, there are not many study objects focusing on participant behavior and middle-aged and elderly people. Therefore, this study takes the news emerged sport-Pickleball that has been loved by silver-haired people in recent years as the research sport. It uses questionnaire surveys and intentional sampling methods. The purpose of the group is to understand the middle-aged and elderly people’s experience and behavior patterns of Pickleball, explore the relationship between experiential marketing and participants' intentional behaviors, and predict which aspects of experiential marketing will affect their intentional behaviors. The findings showed that experience marketing is highly positively correlated with behavioral intentions, and experience marketing has a positive predictive power for behavioral intentions. Among them, "ACT" and "SENSE" are predictive variables that effectively predict behavioral intentions. This study proves the feasibility of pickleball for middle-aged and senior sports. It is recommended that in the future curriculum planning, try to simplify the exercise steps, increase the chances of contact with the sphere, and enhance the sensory experience to enhance the sense of success during exercise, and then generate exercise motivation, and ultimately change the exercise mode or habits and promote health.

Keywords: newly emerged sports, middle age and elderly, health promotion, ACT, SENSE

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Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

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Authors: Nivedha Rajaram

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Hybrid Quantum solvers have been given prime focus in recent days by computation problem-solving domain industrial applications. D’Wave Quantum Computers are one such paragon of systems built using quantum annealing mechanism. Discrete Quadratic Models is a hybrid quantum computing model class supplied by D’Wave Ocean SDK - a real-time software platform for hybrid quantum solvers. These hybrid quantum computing modellers can be employed to solve classic problems. One such problem that we consider in this paper is finding a network connectivity knowledge hub in a huge network of systems. Using this quantum solver, we try to find out the prime system hub, which acts as a supreme connection point for the set of connected computers in a large network. This paper establishes an innovative problem approach to generate a connectivity system hub plot for a set of systems using DWave ocean SDK hybrid quantum solvers.

Keywords: quantum computing, hybrid quantum solver, DWave annealing, network knowledge graph

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Authors: Ashaq Hussain

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Under Islam, for the first time since the Achaemenids, all Iranians including those of Central Asia and on the frontiers of India became united under one rule. Islam was rescued from a narrow Bedouin outlook and Bedouin mores primarily by the Iranians, who showed that Islam, both as a religion and, primarily, as a culture, need not be bound solely to the Arabic language and Arab norms of behavior. Instead Islam was to become a universal religion and culture open to all people. This was a fundamental contribution of the Iranians to Islam, although all Iranians had become Muslims by the time of the creation of Saljuq Empire. So, Iran in a sense provided the history, albeit an epic, of pre-Islamic times for Islam. After all, the Arabs conquered the entire Sasanian Empire, where they found full-scale, imperial models for the management of the new Caliphate, whereas only provinces of the Byzantine Empire were overrun by the Arabs. The present paper is an attempt to give reader a detailed introduction, emergence, expansion and spread of Islam in Iran to the end of Qajar period. It is in this context the present paper has been analyzed.

Keywords: Islam, Achaemenids, Bedouin, Central Asia, Iran

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Authors: Sholeh Motaghian, Pekka Toivanen, Keiji Haataja

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The swift expansion of the transportation industry and its associated emissions have captured the focus of policymakers who are dedicated to upholding ecological sustainability. As a result, understanding the key contributors to transportation emissions is of utmost significance. Amidst the escalating transportation emissions, the significance of electric vehicles cannot be overstated. Electric vehicles play a critical role in steering us towards a low-carbon economy and a sustainable ecological setting. The effective integration of electric vehicles hinges on the development of energy consumption models capable of accurately and efficiently predicting energy usage. Enhancing the energy efficiency of electric vehicles will play a pivotal role in reducing driver concerns and establishing a vital framework for the efficient operation, planning, and management of charging infrastructure. In this article, the works done in this field are reviewed, and the advantages and disadvantages of each are stated.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical vehicle, energy consumption, machine learning, smart grid

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Authors: Hosein Falahaty, Hitoshi Gotoh, Abbas Khayyer

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Performance of a Hamiltonian based particle method in simulation of nonlinear structural dynamics is subjected to investigation in terms of stability and accuracy. The governing equation of motion is derived based on Hamilton's principle of least action, while the deformation gradient is obtained according to Weighted Least Square method. The hyper-elasticity models of Saint Venant-Kirchhoff and a compressible version similar to Mooney- Rivlin are engaged for the calculation of second Piola-Kirchhoff stress tensor, respectively. Stability along with accuracy of numerical model is verified by reproducing critical stress fields in static and dynamic responses. As the results, although performance of Hamiltonian based model is evaluated as being acceptable in dealing with intense extensional stress fields, however kinds of instabilities reveal in the case of violent collision which can be most likely attributed to zero energy singular modes.

Keywords: Hamilton's principle of least action, particle-based method, hyper-elasticity, analysis of stability

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Authors: L. N. P. Wedikandage, Mohamed Razmi Zahir

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Technology is a global imperative because of its contributions to human existence and because it has improved global socioeconomic relations. As a result, the mobile phone has become the most important mode of communication today. Smartphones, Internet-enabled devices with built-in computer software and applications, are one of the most significant inventions of the twenty-first century. Technology is advantageous to many people, especially those involved in education. It is an important learning tool for today's schoolchildren. It enables students to access online learning platforms and course resources and interact digitally. Senior secondary students, in particular, have some of the most expensive and sophisticated mobile phones, tablets, and iPads capable of connecting to the internet and various social media platforms, other websites, and so on. At present, the use of mobile phones' potential for effective teaching and learning is growing. This is due to the benefits of mobile learning, including the ability to share knowledge without any limits in space or Time and the capacity to facilitate the development of critical thinking, participatory learning, problem-solving, and the development of lifelong communication skills. However, it is yet unclear how mobile devices may affect education and how they may affect opportunities for learning. As a result, the purpose of this research was to ascertain the relationship between mobile phone usage and the academic Performance of secondary-level students at an international school in Sri Lanka. The study's sample consisted of 523 secondary-level students from an international school, ranging from Form 1 to Upper 6. For the study, a survey research design and questionnaires were used. Google Forms was used to create the students' survey. There were three hypotheses tested to find out the relationship between mobile phone usage and academic preference. The findings show that there is a positive relationship between mobile phone usage and academic performance among secondary school students (the number of students obtaining simple passes is significantly higher when mobile phones are being used for more than 7 hours), no relationship between mobile phone usage and academic performance among secondary school students of different parents' occupations, and a relationship between the frequency of mobile phone usage and academic performance among secondary school students.

Keywords: mobile phone, academic performance, secondary level, international schools

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Authors: Aditya Sharma

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Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.

Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns

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Authors: Mohamed M. Ibrahim, Gaber A. M. Mersal, Salih Al-Juaid, Samir A. El-Shazly

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A series of mixed ligand complexes, viz., [Cu(BPy)(Gly)X]Y {X = Cl (1), Y = 0; X = 0, Y = ClO4- (2); X = H2O, Y = NO3- (3); X = H2O, Y = CH3COO- (4); and [Cu(BPy)(Gly)-(H2O)]2(SO4) (5) have been synthesized. Their structures and properties were characterized by elemental analysis, thermal analaysis, IR, UV–vis, and ESR spectroscopy, as well as electrochemical measurements including cyclic voltammetry, electrical molar conductivity, and magnetic moment measurements. Complexes 1 and 2 formed slightly distorted square-pyramidal coordination geometries of CuN3OCl and CuN3O2, respectively in which the N,O-donor glycine and N,N-donor bipyridyl bind at the basal plane with chloride ion or water as the axial ligand. Complex 3 shows square planar CuN3O coordination geometry, which exhibits chemically significant hydrogen bonding interactions besides showing coordination polymer formation. The superoxide dismutase and catalase-like activities of all complexes were tested and were found to be promising candidates as durable electron-transfer catalyst being close to the efficiency of the mimicking enzymes displaying either catalase or tyrosinase activity to serve for complete reactive oxygen species (ROS) detoxification, both with respect to superoxide radicals and related peroxides. The DNA binding interaction with super coiled pGEM-T plasmid DNA was investigated by using spectral (absorption and emission) titration and electrochemical techniques. The results revealed that DNA intercalate with complexes 1 and 2 through the groove binding mode. The calculated intrinsic binding constant (Kb) of 1 and 2 were 4.71 and 2.429 × 105 M−1, respectively. Gel electrophoresis study reveals the fact that both complexes cleave super coiled pGEM-T plasmid DNA to nicked and linear forms in the absence of any additives. On the other hand, the interaction of both complexes with DNA, the quasi-reversible CuII/CuI redox couple slightly improves its reversibility with considerable decrease in current intensity. All the experimental results indicate that the bipyridyl mixed copper(II) complex (1) intercalate more effectively into the DNA base pairs.

Keywords: enzyme mimics, mixed ligand complexes, X-ray structures, antioxidant, DNA-binding, DNA cleavage

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Authors: Yiqi Wu, Simon Tait, Andrew Nichols

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Management of UK railway drainage assets is challenging due to the large amounts of historical assets with long asset life cycles. A major concern for asset managers is to maintain the required performance economically and efficiently while complying with the relevant regulation and legislation. As the majority of the drainage assets are buried underground and are often difficult or costly to examine, it is important for asset managers to understand and model the degradation process in order to foresee the upcoming reduction in asset performance and conduct proactive maintenance accordingly. In this research, a Markov chain approach is used to model the deterioration process of rail drainage assets. The study is based on historical condition scores and characteristics of drainage assets across the whole railway network in England, Scotland, and Wales. The model is used to examine the effect of various characteristics on the probabilities of degradation, for example, the regional difference in probabilities of degradation, and how material and shape can influence the deterioration process for chambers, channels, and pipes.

Keywords: deterioration, degradation, markov models, probability, railway drainage

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Authors: Victor Radich, Tania Basso, Regina Moraes

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Lead qualification is one of the main procedures in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) projects. Its main goal is to identify potential consumers who have the ideal characteristics to establish a profitable and long-term relationship with a certain organization. Social networks can be an important source of data for identifying and qualifying leads since interest in specific products or services can be identified from the users’ expressed feelings of (dis)satisfaction. In this context, this work proposes the use of machine learning techniques and sentiment analysis as an extra step in the lead qualification process in order to improve it. In addition to machine learning models, sentiment analysis or opinion mining can be used to understand the evaluation that the user makes of a particular service, product, or brand. The results obtained so far have shown that it is possible to extract data from social networks and combine the techniques for a more complete classification.

Keywords: lead qualification, sentiment analysis, opinion mining, machine learning, CRM, lead scoring

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Authors: Michele M. Mahr

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The purpose of this study is to educate, inform, and facilitate scholarly conversation and discussion regarding the implementation of mindfulness techniques when working with individuals with substance use disorder (SUD) or addictive behaviors in mental health. Mindfulness can be recognized as the present moment, non-judgmental awareness, initiated by concentrated attention that is non-reactive and as openheartedly as possible. Individuals with SUD or addiction typically are challenged with triggers, environmental situations, cravings, or social pressures which may deter them from remaining abstinent from their drug of choice or addictive behavior. Also, mindfulness is recognized as one of the cognitive and behavioral treatment approaches and is both a physical and mental practice that encompasses individuals to become aware of internal situations and experiences with undivided attention. That said, mindfulness may be an effective strategy for individuals to employ during these experiences. This study will reveal how mental health practitioners and addiction counselors may find mindfulness to be an essential component of increasing wellness when working with individuals seeking mental health treatment. To this end, mindfulness is simply the ability individuals have to know what is actually happening as it is occurring and what they are experiencing at the moment. In the context of substance abuse and addiction, individuals may employ breathing techniques, meditation, and cognitive restructuring of the mind to become aware of present moment experiences. Furthermore, the notion of mindfulness has been directly connected to the development of neuropathways. The creation of the neural pathways then leads to creating thoughts which leads to developing new coping strategies and adaptive behaviors. Mindfulness strategies can assist individuals in connecting the mind with the body, allowing the individual to remain centered and focused. All of these mentioned above are vital components to recovery during substance abuse and addiction treatment. There are a variety of therapeutic modalities applying the key components of mindfulness, such as Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) and Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy for depression (MBCT). This study will provide an overview of both MBSR and MBCT in relation to treating individuals with substance abuse and addiction. The author will also provide strategies for readers to employ when working with clients. Lastly, the author will create and foster a safe space for discussion and engaging conversation among participants to ask questions, share perspectives, and be educated on the numerous benefits of mindfulness within wellness.

Keywords: mindfulness, wellness, substance abuse, mental health

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Authors: Hebat‑Allah S. Tohamy, Mohamed El‑Sakhawy, Samir Kamel

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Fluorescent carbon quantum dots (CQDs) were prepared by an economical, green, and single-step procedure based on microwave heating of urea with sugarcane bagasse (SCB), cellulose (C), or carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC). The prepared CQDs were characterized using a series of spectroscopic techniques, and they had small size, strong absorption in the UV, and excitation wavelength-dependent fluorescence. The prepared CQDs were used for Pb(II) adsorption from an aqueous solution. The removal efficiency percentages (R %) were 99.16, 96.36, and 98.48 for QCMC, QC, and QSCB. The findings validated the efficiency of CQDs synthesized from CMC, cellulose, and SCB as excellent materials for further utilization in the environmental fields of wastewater pollution detection, adsorption, and chemical sensing applications. The kinetics and isotherms studied found that all CQD isotherms fit well with the Langmuir model than Freundlich and Temkin models. According to R², the pseudo-second-order fits the adsorption of QCMC, while the first-order one fits with QC and QSCB.

Keywords: carbon quantum dots, graphene quantum dots, fluorescence, quantum yield, water treatment, agricultural wastes

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Authors: Marzie Shahini, Alireza Bagheri Sabbagh, Rasoul Mirghaderi, Paul C. Davidson

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The focus of this paper is to incorporating the slotted bolted connection into the cold-formed steel (CFS) beams with aim of increasing inelastic bending capacity through bolt slip. An extensive finite element analysis was conducted on the through plate CFS bolted connections which are equipped with the slotted hole. The studied parameters in this paper included the following: CFS beam section geometry, the value of slip force, CFS beam thickness. The numerical results indicate that CFS slotted bolted connection exhibit higher inelastic capacity in terms of ductility compare to connection with standards holes. Moreover, the effect of slip force was analysed by comparing the moment-rotation curves of different models with different slip force value. As a result, as the slip force became lower, there was a tendency for the plastic strain to extend from the CFS member to the connection region.

Keywords: slip-critical bolted connection, inelastic capacity, slotted holes, cold-formed steel, bolt slippage, slip force

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Authors: Bandhan Dey, Muhsina Bintoon Yiasha, Gulam Sulaman Choudhury

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Chest disease is one of the most problematic ailments in our regular life. There are many known chest diseases out there. Diagnosing them correctly plays a vital role in the process of treatment. There are many methods available explicitly developed for different chest diseases. But the most common approach for diagnosing these diseases is through X-ray. In this paper, we proposed a multi-classification deep learning model for diagnosing COVID-19, lung cancer, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and atelectasis from chest X-rays. In the present work, we used the transfer learning method for better accuracy and fast training phase. The performance of three architectures is considered: InceptionV3, VGG-16, and VGG-19. We evaluated these deep learning architectures using public digital chest x-ray datasets with six classes (i.e., COVID-19, lung cancer, pneumonia, tuberculosis, atelectasis, and normal). The experiments are conducted on six-classification, and we found that VGG16 outperforms other proposed models with an accuracy of 95%.

Keywords: deep learning, image classification, X-ray images, Tensorflow, Keras, chest diseases, convolutional neural networks, multi-classification

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Authors: Md Monir Hossain, Anne Staples, Kuya Takami, Tomonari Furukawa

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Tire noise has a significant impact on ride quality and vehicle interior comfort, even at low frequency. Reduction of tire noise is especially important due to strict state and federal environmental regulations. The primary sources of tire noise are the low frequency structure-borne noise and the noise that originates from the release of trapped air between the tire tread and road surface during each revolution of the tire. The frequency response of the tire changes at low and high frequency. At low frequency, the tension and bending moment become dominant, while the internal structure and local deformation become dominant at higher frequencies. Here, we analyze tire response in terms of deformation and rolling velocity at low revolution frequency. An Abaqus FEA finite element model is used to calculate the static and dynamic response of a rolling tire under different rolling conditions. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of a deformed tire are calculated with the FEA package where the subspace-based steady state dynamic analysis calculates dynamic response of tire subjected to harmonic excitation. The analysis was conducted on the dynamic response at the road (contact point of tire and road surface) and side nodes of a static and rolling tire when the tire was excited with 200 N vertical load for a frequency ranging from 20 to 200 Hz. The results show that frequency has little effect on tire deformation up to 80 Hz. But between 80 and 200 Hz, the radial and lateral components of displacement of the road and side nodes exhibited significant oscillation. For the static analysis, the fluctuation was sharp and frequent and decreased with frequency. In contrast, the fluctuation was periodic in nature for the dynamic response of the rolling tire. In addition to the dynamic analysis, a steady state rolling analysis was also performed on the tire traveling at ground velocity with a constant angular motion. The purpose of the computation was to demonstrate the effect of rotating motion on deformation and rolling velocity with respect to a fixed Newtonian reference point. The analysis showed a significant variation in deformation and rolling velocity due to centrifugal and Coriolis acceleration with respect to a fixed Newtonian point on ground.

Keywords: natural frequency, rotational motion, steady state rolling, subspace-based steady state dynamic analysis

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Authors: Leonardo Alfredo Mendoza, Cristian Munoz, Marco Aurelio Pacheco, Manoela Kohler, Evelyn Batista, Rodrigo Moura

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Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques are increasingly more powerful to be able to interpret the feelings and reactions of a person to a product or service. Sentiment analysis has become a fundamental tool for this interpretation but has few applications in languages other than English. This paper presents a classification of sentiment analysis in Portuguese with a base of comments from social networks in Portuguese. A word embedding's representation was used with a 50-Dimension GloVe pre-trained model, generated through a corpus completely in Portuguese. To generate this classification, the bidirectional long short-term memory and bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models are used, reaching results of 99.1%.

Keywords: natural processing language, sentiment analysis, bidirectional long short-term memory, BI-LSTM, gated recurrent unit, GRU

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Authors: Sabrina Neururer, Marco Schweitzer, Werner Hackl, Bernhard Tilg, Patrick Raudaschl, Andreas Huber, Bernhard Pfeifer

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History and the current outbreak of Covid-19 have shown the deadly potential of infectious diseases. However, infectious diseases also have a serious impact on areas other than health and healthcare, such as the economy or social life. These areas are strongly codependent. Therefore, disease control measures, such as social distancing, quarantines, curfews, or lockdowns, have to be adopted in a very considerate manner. Infectious disease modeling can support policy and decision-makers with adequate information regarding the dynamics of the pandemic and therefore assist in planning and enforcing appropriate measures that will prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. In this work, an agent-based simulation package named “survival” for simulating infectious diseases is presented. A special focus is put on SARS-Cov-2. The presented simulation package was used in Austria to model the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak from the beginning of 2020. Agent-based modeling is a relatively recent modeling approach. Since our world is getting more and more complex, the complexity of the underlying systems is also increasing. The development of tools and frameworks and increasing computational power advance the application of agent-based models. For parametrizing the presented model, different data sources, such as known infections, wastewater virus load, blood donor antibodies, circulating virus variants and the used capacity for hospitalization, as well as the availability of medical materials like ventilators, were integrated with a database system and used. The simulation result of the model was used for predicting the dynamics and the possible outcomes and was used by the health authorities to decide on the measures to be taken in order to control the pandemic situation. The survival package was implemented in the programming language Java and the analytics were performed with R Studio. During the first run in March 2020, the simulation showed that without measures other than individual personal behavior and appropriate medication, the death toll would have been about 27 million people worldwide within the first year. The model predicted the hospitalization rates (standard and intensive care) for Tyrol and South Tyrol with an accuracy of about 1.5% average error. They were calculated to provide 10-days forecasts. The state government and the hospitals were provided with the 10-days models to support their decision-making. This ensured that standard care was maintained for as long as possible without restrictions. Furthermore, various measures were estimated and thereafter enforced. Among other things, communities were quarantined based on the calculations while, in accordance with the calculations, the curfews for the entire population were reduced. With this framework, which is used in the national crisis team of the Austrian province of Tyrol, a very accurate model could be created on the federal state level as well as on the district and municipal level, which was able to provide decision-makers with a solid information basis. This framework can be transferred to various infectious diseases and thus can be used as a basis for future monitoring.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, agent-based, SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19

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Authors: Samar Raffoul, Martin Heywood, Dimitrios Moutaftsis, Michael Rowell

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This paper comprises an experimental investigation into the structural performance of cold formed steel (CFS) and timber board composite floor systems. The tests include a series of small-scale pushout tests and full-scale bending tests carried out using a refined loading system to simulate uniformly distributed constant load. The influence of connection details (screw spacing and adhesives) on floor performance was investigated. The results are then compared to predictions from relevant existing models for composite floor systems. The results of this research demonstrate the significant benefits of considering the composite action of the boards in floor design. Depending on connection detail, an increase in flexural stiffness of up to 40% was observed in the floor system, when compared to designing joists individually.

Keywords: cold formed steel joists, composite action, flooring systems, shear connection

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Authors: Hein Win Zaw

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Today, the advanced strategies for aircraft production technology potentially need the higher performance, and on the other hand, those strategies and engineering technologies should meet considerable process and reduce of production costs. Thus, professionals who are working in these scopes are attempting to develop new materials to improve the manufacturability of designs, the creation of new technological processes, tools and equipment. This paper discusses about the research on structural changes in plastic deformation during rotary expansion and crimp of pipes. Pipelines are experiencing high pressure and pulsating load. That is why, it is high demands on the mechanical properties of the material, the quality of the external and internal surfaces, preserve cross-sectional shape and the minimum thickness of the pipe wall are taking into counts. In the manufacture of pipes, various operations: distribution, crimping, bending, etc. are used. The most widely used at various semi-products, connecting elements found the process of rotary expansion and crimp of pipes. In connection with the use of high strength materials and less-plastic, these conventional techniques do not allow obtaining high-quality parts, and also have a low economic efficiency. Therefore, research in this field is relevantly considerable to develop in advanced. Rotary expansion and crimp of pipes are accompanied by inhomogeneous plastic deformation, which leads to structural changes in the material, causes its deformation hardening, by this result changes the operational reliability of the product. Parts of the tube obtained by rotary expansion and crimp differ by multiplicity of form and characterized by various diameter in the various section, which formed in the result of inhomogeneous plastic deformation. The reliability of the coupling, obtained by rotary expansion and crimp, is determined by the structural arrangement of material formed by the formation process; there is maximum value of deformation, the excess of which is unacceptable. The structural state of material in this condition is determined by technological mode of formation in the rotary expansion and crimp. Considering the above, objective of the present study is to investigate the structural changes at different levels of plastic deformation, accompanying rotary expansion and crimp, and the analysis of stress concentrators of different scale levels, responsible for the formation of the primary zone of destruction.

Keywords: plastic deformation, rolling of tubes, crimping of tubes, structural changes

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Authors: Ehsan Daryadel, Hamid Shakeri

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Good governance is considered as one of the necessary prerequisites for promotion of sustainable development programs in countries. Theoretical model of good governance is going to form the best methods for administration and management of subject country. The importance of maintaining the balance between the needs of present and future generation through sustainable development caused a change in method of management and providing service for citizens that is addressed as the most efficient and effective way of administration of countries. This method is based on democratic and equal-seeking sustainable development which is trying to affect all actors in this area and also be accountable to all citizens’ needs. Meanwhile, it should be noted that good governance is a prerequisite for sustainable development. In fact, good governance means impact of all actors on administration and management of the country for fulfilling public services, general needs of citizens and establishing a balance and harmony between needs of present and future generation. In the present study, efforts have been made to present concepts, definitions, purposes and indices of good governance with a descriptive-analytical method.

Keywords: accountability, efficiency and effectiveness, good governance, rule of law, transparency

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Authors: Pakhapoom Sarapat, James M. Hill, Duangkamon Baowan

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Carbon nanotori provide several properties such as high tensile strength and heat resistance. They are promised to be ideal structures for encapsulation, and their encapsulation ability can be determined by the interaction energy between the carbon nanotori and the encapsulated nanostructures. Such interaction energy is evaluated using Lennard-Jones potential and continuum approximation. Here, four problems relating to toroidal molecules are determined in order to find the most stable configuration. Firstly, the interaction energy between a carbon nanotorus and an atom is examined. The second problem relates to the energy of a fullerene encapsulated inside a carbon nanotorus. Next, the interaction energy between two symmetrically situated and parallel nanotori is considered. Finally, the classical mechanics is applied to model the interaction energy between the toroidal structure of cyclodextrin and the spherical DNA molecules. These mathematical models might be exploited to study a number of promising devices for future developments in bio and nanotechnology.

Keywords: carbon nanotori, continuum approximation, interaction energy, Lennard-Jones potential, nanotechnology

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Authors: Asif Hasan

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Among the reported suitable mariculture species in Bangladesh, seabass and mullet are the two most popular candidates due to their high market values. Several field studies conducted on the culture of seabass in Bangladesh, it still remains a challenge to commercially grow this species due to its exclusive carnivorous nature. In contrast, the grey mullet (M. cephalus) is a fast-growing, omnivorous euryhaline fish that has shown excellent growth in many areas including South Asia. Choice of a sustainable aquaculture technique must consider the productivity and yield as well as their environmental suitability. This study was designed to elucidate the ecologically suitable culture technique of M. cephalus in brakishwater ponds by comparing the biotic and abiotic components of pond ecosystem. In addition to growth parameters (yield, ADG, SGR, weight gain, FCR), Physicochemical parameters (Temperature, DO, pH, salinity, TDS, transparency, ammonia, and Chlorophyll-a concentration) and biological community composition (phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthic macroinvertebrates) were investigated from ponds under Semi-intensive, Improve extensive and Traditional culture system. While temperature were similar in the three culture types, ponds under improve-extensive showed better environmental conditions with significantly higher mean DO and transparency, and lower TDS and Chlorophyll-a. The abundance of zooplankton, phytoplankton and benthic macroinvertebrates were apparently higher in semi-intensive ponds. The Analysis of Similarity (ANOSIM) suggested moderate difference in the planktonic community composition. While the fish growth parameters of M. cephalus and total yield did not differ significantly between three systems, M. cephalus yield (kg/decimal) was apparently higher in semi-intensive pond due to high stocking density and intensive feeding. The results suggested that the difference between the three systems were due to more efficient utilization of nutrients in improve extensive ponds which affected fish growth through trophic cascades. This study suggested that different culture system of M. cephalus is an alternative and more beneficial method owing to its ecological and economic benefits in brackishwater ponds.

Keywords: Mugil cephalus, pond ecosystem, mariculture, fisheries management

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Sarwat un Nisa

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One of the remarkable gifts that a human being is blessed with is the ability to speak using a combination of sounds. Different combinations of sounds combine to form a word which in turn make a sentence and therefore give birth to a language. A person can either be a monolingual, i.e., can speak one language or bilingual, i.e., can speak more than one language. Whether a person speaks one language or multiple languages or in whatever language a person speaks, the main aim is to communicate, express ideas, feelings or thoughts. Sometimes the choice of a language is deliberate and sometimes it is a habitual act. The language which is used to put our ideas across speaks many things about our cultural, linguistic and ethnic identities. It can never be claimed that bilinguals are better than monolinguals in terms of linguistic skills, bilinguals or multilinguals have more than one language at their disposal. Therefore, how effectively two languages are used by the same person keeps linguists always intrigued. The most prominent and common features found in the speech of bilingual speakers are code switching and code mixing. The aim of the present paper is to explore these features among the adolescent speakers of Kashmir. The reason for studying the linguistics behavior of adolescents is the age when a person is neither an adult nor a child. They want to drift away from the norms and make a new norm for themselves. Therefore, how their linguistics skills are influenced by their age is of great interest because it can set the trend for the future generation. Kashmir is a multilingual society where three languages, i.e., Kashmiri, Urdu, and English are regularly used by the speakers, especially the educated ones. Kashmiri is widely used at home or mostly among adults. Urdu is the official language, and English is used in schools and for most of the written official correspondences. Thus, it is not uncommon to find these three languages coming in contact with each other quite frequently. The language contact results in the code switching and code mixing. In this paper different aspects of code switching and code mixing are discussed. Research Method: The data were collected from the different districts of Kashmir. The informants did not have prior knowledge of the survey. The situation was spontaneous and natural. The topics were introduced by the interviewer to the group of informants which comprised of three participants. They were asked to discuss the topic, most of the times without any intervention of the interviewer. Along with conversations, the informants also filled in written questionnaires comprising sociolinguistic questions. Questionnaires were analysed to get an idea about the sociolinguistic attitude of the informants. Percentage, frequency, and average were used as statistical tools to analyse the data. Conclusions were drawn taking into consideration of interpretations of both speech samples and questionnaires.

Keywords: code mixing, code switching, Kashmir, bilingualism

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Authors: Iwona Cieślik, Władysław Migdał, Kinga Topolska, Ewa Cieślik

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The consumption of fish is recommended as a means of preventing serious diseases, especially cardiovascular problems. Fish is known to be a valuable source of protein (rich in essential amino acids), unsaturated fatty acids, fat-soluble vitamins, macro- and microelements. However, it can also contain several contaminants (e.g. pesticides, heavy metals) that may pose considerable risks for humans. Among others, pesticide are of special concern. Their widespread use has resulted in the contamination of environmental compartments, including water. The occurrence of pesticides in the environment is a serious problem, due to their potential toxicity. Therefore, a systematic monitoring is needed. The aim of the study was to determine the organochlorine and organophosphate pesticide residues in fish muscle tissues of the pike (Esox lucius, L.) and the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykkis, Walbaum) by a modified QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe) method, using Gas Chromatography Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry (GC/Q-MS), working in selected-ion monitoring (SIM) mode. The analysis of α-HCH, β-HCH, lindane, diazinon, disulfoton, δ-HCH, methyl parathion, heptachlor, malathion, aldrin, parathion, heptachlor epoxide, γ-chlordane, endosulfan, α-chlordane, o,p'-DDE, dieldrin, endrin, 4,4'-DDD, ethion, endrin aldehyde, endosulfan sulfate, 4,4'-DDT, and metoxychlor was performed in the samples collected in the Carp Valley (Malopolska region, Poland). The age of the pike (n=6) was 3 years and its weight was 2-3 kg, while the age of the rainbow trout (n=6) was 0.5 year and its weight was 0.5-1.0 kg. Detectable pesticide (HCH isomers, endosulfan isomers, DDT and its metabolites as well as metoxychlor) residues were present in fish samples. However, all these compounds were below the limit of quantification (LOQ). The other examined pesticide residues were below the limit of detection (LOD). Therefore, the levels of contamination were - in all cases - below the default Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs), established by Regulation (EC) No 396/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council. The monitoring of pesticide residues content in fish is required to minimize potential adverse effects on the environment and human exposure to these contaminants.

Keywords: contaminants, fish, pesticides residues, QuEChERS method

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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Refined procedures for higher-order asymptotic theory for non-linear models are developed. These include a new method for deriving stochastic expansions of arbitrary order, new methods for evaluating the moments of polynomials of sample averages, a new method for deriving the approximate moments of the stochastic expansions; an application of these techniques to gather improved inferences with the weak instruments problem is considered. It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. In our application, finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: edgeworth expansions, higher order asymptotics, saddlepoint expansions, weak instruments

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Authors: Adam Abate, Elham Rasti, Philip Romero

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Beta-glucosidase is the key enzyme component present in cellulase and completes the final step during cellulose hydrolysis by converting the cellobiose to glucose. The regulatory properties of beta-glucosidases are most commonly found for the retaining and inverting enzymes. Hydrolysis of a glycoside typically occurs with general acid and general base assistance from two amino acid side chains, normally glutamic or aspartic acids. In order to obtain more detailed information on the dynamic events origination from the interaction with enzyme active site, we carried out molecular dynamics simulations of beta-glycosidase in protonated state (Glu-H178) and deprotonated state (Glu178). The theoretical models generated from our molecular dynamics simulations complement and advance the structural information currently available, leading to a more detailed understanding of Beta-glycosidase structure and function. This article presents the important role of Asn307 in enzyme activity of beta-glucosidase

Keywords: Beta-glucosidase, GROMACS, molecular dynamics simulation, structural parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 386