Search results for: tree canopy cover
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2151

Search results for: tree canopy cover

1551 Smartphones as a Tool of Mobile Journalism in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Ahmed Deen

Abstract:

The introduction of the mobile devices which were equipped with internet access and a camera, as well as the messaging services, has become a major inspiration for the use of the mobile devices in the growth in the reporting of news. Mobile journalism (MOJO) was a creation of modern technology, especially the use of mobile technology for video journalism purposes. MOJO, thus, is the process by which information is collected and disseminated to society, through the use of mobile technology, and even the use of the tablets. This paper seeks to better understand the ethics of Saudi mobile journalists towards news coverage. Also, this study aims to explore the relationship between minimizing harms and truth-seeking efforts among Saudi mobile journalists. Three main ethics were targeted in this study, which are seek truth and report it, minimize harm, and being accountable. Diffusion of innovation theory applied to reach this study’s goals. The non- probability sampling approach, ‘Snowball Sampling’ was used to target 124 survey participants, an online survey via SurveyMonkey that was distributed through social media platforms as a web link. The code of ethics of the Society of Professional Journalists has applied as a scale in this study. This study found that the relationship between minimizing harm and truth-seeking efforts is significantly moderate among Saudi mobile journalists. Also, it is found that the level journalistic experiences and using smartphones to cover news are weakly and negatively related to the perceptions of mobile journalism among Saudi journalists, while Saudi journalists who use their smartphone to cover the news between 1-3 years, were the majority of participants (55 participants by 51.4%).

Keywords: mobile journalism, Saudi journalism, smartphone, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
1550 Efficacy of Remote Sensing Application in Monitoring the Effectiveness of Afforestation Project in Northern Nigeria

Authors: T. Garba, Y. Y. Babanyara, K. G. Ilellah, M. A. Modibbo, T. O. Quddus, M. J. Sani

Abstract:

After the United Nation Convention on Desertification (UNCD) in 1977 which was preceded by extensive, regional, and local studies, and consultations with numerous scientists, decision-makers, and relevant institutions. Global Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (PACD) was formulated, endorsed by member Countries. The role of implementing PACD was vested with Governments of countries affected by desertification. The Federal Government of Nigeria as a signatory and World Bank funded and implement afforestation project aimed at combating desertification between 1988 and 1999. This research, therefore, applied remote sensing techniques to assess the effectiveness of the project. To achieve that a small portion of about 143,609 hectares was curved out from the project area. Normalized Difference of the Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Land Use Land Cover were derived from Landsat TM 1986, Landsat ETM 1999 and Nigeria Sat 1, 2007 of the project area. The findings show that there was an increase in cultivated area due to the project from 1986 through 1999 and 2007. This is further buttressed by the three NDVI imageries due to their high positive pixel value from 0.04 in 1986 to 0.22 in 1999 and to 0.32 in 2007 These signifies the gradual physical development of Afforestation project in the area. In addition, it was also verified by histograms of changes in vegetation which indicated an increased vegetative cover from 60,192 in 1986, to 102,476 in 1999 and then to 88,343 in 2007. The study concluded that Remote Sensing approach has actually confirmed that the project was indeed successful and effective.

Keywords: afforestation, desertification, landsat, vegetative index, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 317
1549 Prediction of Coronary Artery Stenosis Severity Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

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1548 Constraining the Potential Nickel Laterite Area Using Geographic Information System-Based Multi-Criteria Rating in Surigao Del Sur

Authors: Reiner-Ace P. Mateo, Vince Paolo F. Obille

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The traditional method of classifying the potential mineral resources requires a significant amount of time and money. In this paper, an alternative way to classify potential mineral resources with GIS application in Surigao del Sur. The three (3) analog map data inputs integrated to GIS are geologic map, topographic map, and land cover/vegetation map. The indicators used in the classification of potential nickel laterite integrated from the analog map data inputs are a geologic indicator, which is the presence of ultramafic rock from the geologic map; slope indicator and the presence of plateau edges from the topographic map; areas of forest land, grassland, and shrublands from the land cover/vegetation map. The potential mineral of the area was classified from low up to very high potential. The produced mineral potential classification map of Surigao del Sur has an estimated 4.63% low nickel laterite potential, 42.15% medium nickel laterite potential, 43.34% high nickel laterite potential, and 9.88% very high nickel laterite from its ultramafic terrains. For the validation of the produced map, it was compared with known occurrences of nickel laterite in the area using a nickel mining tenement map from the area with the application of remote sensing. Three (3) prominent nickel mining companies were delineated in the study area. The generated potential classification map of nickel-laterite in Surigao Del Sur may be of aid to the mining companies which are currently in the exploration phase in the study area. Also, the currently operating nickel mines in the study area can help to validate the reliability of the mineral classification map produced.

Keywords: mineral potential classification, nickel laterites, GIS, remote sensing, Surigao del Sur

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1547 First Documented Anesthesia with Use of Low Doses of Tiletamine-Zolazepam Combination in Ovoviparous Amazon Tree Boa Undergoing Emergency Coeliotomy-Case Report

Authors: Krzysztof Buczak, Sonia Lachowska, Pawel Kucharski, Agnieszka Antonczyk

Abstract:

Tiletamine - zolazepam combination is increasingly used in veterinary anaesthesiology in wild animals, including snakes. The available literature shows a lack of information about anesthesia in this mixture in ovoviviparous snakes. The studies show the possibility of using the combination at a dose of 20 mg/kg or more for snake immobilization. This paper presents an anesthetic protocol with the use of a combination of tiletamine - zolazepam at the dose of 10 mg/kg intramuscularly and maintenance with inhalant anesthesia with isoflurane in pure oxygen. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the anesthetic protocol to proceed with coeliotomy in Amazon Tree Boa. The patient was a five years old bicolor female Amazon Tree Boa (Corallus hortulanus) with dystocia. The clinical examination reveals significant emaciation (bodyweight 520g), high degree of dehydration, heart rate (HR = 60 / min), pale mucous membranes and poor reactivity. Meloxicam (1 mg/kg) and tramadol (10 mg/kg) were administered subcutaneously and the patient was placed in an incubator with access to fresh oxygen. Four hours later, the combination of tiletamine - zolazepam (10 mg/kg) was administered intramuscularly for induction of anesthesia. The snake was intubated and connected to inhalant anesthesia equipment. For maintenance, the anesthesia isoflurane in pure oxygen was used due to apnea, which occurs 30 minutes after the induction semi-closed system was attached and the ventilator was turned on (PCV system, four breaths per minute, 8 cm of H2O). Cardiopulmonary parameters (HR, RR, SPO2, ETCO2, ETISO) were assessed throughout the procedure. During the entire procedure, the operating room was heated to a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the hose was placed on a heating mat, which maintained a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. For 15 minutes after induction, the loss of muscle tone was observed from the head to the tail. Induction of general anesthesia was scored as good because of the possibility of intubation. During the whole procedure, the heart rate was at the rate of 58 beats per minute (bpm). Ventilation parameters were stable throughout the procedure. The recovery period lasts for about 4 hours after the end of general anesthesia. The muscle tension returned from tail to head. The snake started to breathe spontaneously within 1,5 hours after the end of general anesthesia. The protocol of general anesthesia with the combination of tiletamine- zolazepam with a dose of 10 mg/kg is useful for proceeding with the emergency coeliotomy in maintenance with isoflurane in oxygen. Further study about the impact of the combination of tiletamine- zolazepam for the recovery period is needed.

Keywords: anesthesia, corallus hortulanus, ovoviparous, snake, tiletamine, zolazepam

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1546 Weeds Density Affects Yield and Quality of Wheat Crop under Different Crop Densities

Authors: Ijaz Ahmad

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Weed competition is one of the major biotic constraints in wheat crop productivity. Avena fatua L. and Silybum marianum (L.) Gaertn. are among the worst weeds of wheat, greatly deteriorating wheat quality subsequently reducing its market value. In this connection, two-year experiments were conducted in 2018 & 2019. Different seeding rate wheat viz; 80, 100, 120 and 140 kg ha-1 and different weeds ratio (A. fatua: S. marianum ) sown at the rate 1:8, 2:7, 3:6, 4:5, 5:4, 6:3, 7:2, 8:1 and 0:0 respectively. The weeds ratio and wheat densities are indirectly proportional. However, the wheat seed at the rate of 140 kg ha-1 has minimal weeds interference. Yield losses were 17.5% at weeds density 1:8 while 7.2% at 8:1. However, in wheat density, the highest percent losses were computed on 80 kg ha-1 while the lowest was recorded on 140 kg ha-1. Since due to the large leaf canopy of S. marianum other species can't sustain their growth. Hence, it has been concluded that S. marianum is the hotspot that causes reduction to the yield-related parameters, followed by A. fatua and the other weeds. Due to the morphological mimicry of A. fatua with wheat crop during the vegetative growth stage, it cannot be easily distinguished. Therefore, managing A. fatua and S. marianum before seed setting is recommended for reducing the future weed problem. Based on current studies, it is suggested that sowing wheat seed at the rate of 140 kg ha-1 is recommended to better compete with all the field weeds.

Keywords: fat content, holly thistle, protein content, weed competition, wheat, wild oat

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1545 Water Balance in the Forest Basins Essential for the Water Supply in Central America

Authors: Elena Listo Ubeda, Miguel Marchamalo Sacristan

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The demand for water doubles every twenty years, at a rate which is twice as fast as the world´s population growth. Despite it´s great importance, water is one of the most degraded natural resources in the world, mainly because of the reduction of natural vegetation coverage, population growth, contamination and changes in the soil use which reduces its capacity to collect water. This situation is especially serious in Central America, as reflected in the Human Development reports. The objective of this project is to assist in the improvement of water production and quality in Central America. In order to do these two watersheds in Costa Rica were selected as experiments: that of the Virilla-Durazno River, located in the extreme north east of the central valley which has an Atlantic influence; and that of the Jabillo River, which flows directly into the Pacific. The Virilla river watershed is located over andisols, and that of the Jabillo River is over alfisols, and both are of great importance for water supply to the Greater Metropolitan Area and the future tourist resorts respectively, as well as for the production of agriculture, livestock and hydroelectricity. The hydrological reaction in different soil-cover complexes, varying from the secondary forest to natural vegetation and degraded pasture, was analyzed according to the evaluation of the properties of the soil, infiltration, soil compaction, as well as the effects of the soil cover complex on erosion, calculated by the C factor of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). A water balance was defined for each watershed, in which the volume of water that enters and leaves were estimated, as well as the evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration. Two future scenarios, representing the implementation of reforestation and deforestation plans, were proposed, and were analyzed for the effects of the soil cover complex on the water balance in each case. The results obtained show an increase of the ground water recharge in the humid forest areas, and an extension of the study of the dry areas is proposed since the ground water recharge here is diminishing. These results are of great significance for the planning, design of Payment Schemes for Environmental Services and the improvement of the existing water supply systems. In Central America spatial planning is a priority, as are the watersheds, in order to assess the water resource socially and economically, and securing its availability for the future.

Keywords: Costa Rica, infiltration, soil, water

Procedia PDF Downloads 385
1544 Rangeland Monitoring by Computerized Technologies

Authors: H. Arzani, Z. Arzani

Abstract:

Every piece of rangeland has a different set of physical and biological characteristics. This requires the manager to synthesis various information for regular monitoring to define changes trend to get wright decision for sustainable management. So range managers need to use computerized technologies to monitor rangeland, and select. The best management practices. There are four examples of computerized technologies that can benefit sustainable management: (1) Photographic method for cover measurement: The method was tested in different vegetation communities in semi humid and arid regions. Interpretation of pictures of quadrats was done using Arc View software. Data analysis was done by SPSS software using paired t test. Based on the results, generally, photographic method can be used to measure ground cover in most vegetation communities. (2) GPS application for corresponding ground samples and satellite pixels: In two provinces of Tehran and Markazi, six reference points were selected and in each point, eight GPS models were tested. Significant relation among GPS model, time and location with accuracy of estimated coordinates was found. After selection of suitable method, in Markazi province coordinates of plots along four transects in each 6 sites of rangelands was recorded. The best time of GPS application was in the morning hours, Etrex Vista had less error than other models, and a significant relation among GPS model, time and location with accuracy of estimated coordinates was found. (3) Application of satellite data for rangeland monitoring: Focusing on the long term variation of vegetation parameters such as vegetation cover and production is essential. Our study in grass and shrub lands showed that there were significant correlations between quantitative vegetation characteristics and satellite data. So it is possible to monitor rangeland vegetation using digital data for sustainable utilization. (4) Rangeland suitability classification with GIS: Range suitability assessment can facilitate sustainable management planning. Three sub-models of sensitivity to erosion, water suitability and forage production out puts were entered to final range suitability classification model. GIS was facilitate classification of range suitability and produced suitability maps for sheep grazing. Generally digital computers assist range managers to interpret, modify, calibrate or integrating information for correct management.

Keywords: computer, GPS, GIS, remote sensing, photographic method, monitoring, rangeland ecosystem, management, suitability, sheep grazing

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
1543 A Study of Flooding Detention Space Efficiency in Different Lands Uses : The Case in Zhoushui River Downstream Catchment in Taiwan

Authors: Jie-Ying Wu, Kuo-Hao Weng, Jin-Cheng Fu

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This study proposes changes to land use for the purposes of water retention and runoff reduction, with the aim of reducing the frequency of flooding. This study uses the Zhuoshui River in Taiwan as a case study, designing different land use planning strategies, and setting up various detention spaces. The HEC-HMS model developed by the Hydrology Research Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is used to calculate the decrease in runoff using various planning strategies, during five precipitation events of increasing return periods. This study finds that a maximum decrease in runoff of 14 million square meters can result by changing the form of land cover and storm detention in non-urban agricultural and river zones. This is due to the fact that non-urban land accounts for 96% of the area under study. Greatest efficacy was demonstrated in a two-year return period, with results ranging from 16% to 52%. The efficacy of a 100-year return period rated from 3% to 8%. Urban area detentions consist of agricultural paddy fields, storm water ponds and rainwater retention systems in building basements. Although urban areas can provide one million cubic meters of runoff storage, this result is insignificant due to the fact that urban area constitutes only 4% of the study area. By changing land cover, a 2-year return period has a 9% efficacy, and a 100-year return period has a 2% efficacy.

Keywords: flood detention space, land-use, spatial planning, Zhuoshuei River, Taiwan

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1542 Severe Infestation of Laspeyresia Koenigana Fab. and Alternaria Leaf Spot on Azadirachta Indica (Neem)

Authors: Shiwani Bhatnagar, K. K. Srivastava, Sangeeta Singh, Ameen Ullah Khan, Bundesh Kumar, Lokendra Singh Rathore

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From the instigation of the world medicinal plants are treated as part and parcel of human society to fight against diseases. Azadirachta indica (Neem) a herbal plant has been used as an Indian traditional medicine since ages and its products are acknowledged to solve agricultural, forestry and public health related problems, owing to its beneficial medicinal properties. Each part of the neem tree is known for its medicinal property. Bark & leaf extracts of neem have been used to control leprosy, respiratory disorders, constipation and also as blood purifier and a general health tonic. Neem is still regarded as ' rural community dispensary' in India or a tree for solving medical problems. Use of Neem as pesticides for the management of insect pest of agriculture crops and forestry has been seen as a shift in the use of synthetic pesticides to ecofriendly botanicals. Neem oil and seed extracts possess germicidal and anti-bacterial properties which when sprayed on the plant helps in protecting them from foliage pests. Azadirachtin, the main active ingredient found in neem tree, acts as an insect repellent and antifeedant. However the young plants are susceptible to many insect pest and foliar diseases. Recently, in the avenue plantation, planted by Arid Forest Research Institute, Jodhpur, around the premises of IIT Jodhpur, two years old neem plants were found to be severely infested with tip borer Laspeyresia koenigana (Family: Eucosmidae). The adult moth of L. koenigana lays eggs on the tender shoots and the young larvae tunnel into the shoot and feed inside. A small pinhole can be seen at the entrance point, from where the larva enters in to the stem. The severely attached apical shoots exhibit profuse gum exudation resulting in development of a callus structure. The internal feeding causes the stem to wilt and the leaves to dry up from the tips resulting in growth retardation. Alternaria Leaf spot and blight symptoms were also recorded on these neem plants. For the management of tip borer and Alternaria Leaf spot, foliar spray of monocrotophos @0.05% and Dithane M-45 @ 0.15% and powermin @ 2ml/lit were found efficient in managing the insect pest and foliar disease problem. No Further incidence of pest/diseases was noticed.

Keywords: azadirachta indica, alternaria leaf spot, laspeyresia koenigana, management

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1541 Influence of Dietary Herbal Blend on Crop Filling, Growth Performance and Nutrient Digestibility in Broiler Chickens

Authors: S. Ahmad, M. Rizwan, B. Ayub, S. Mehmood, P. Akhtar

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This experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of supplementation of pure herbal blend on growth performance of boilers. One hundred and twenty birds were randomly distributed into 4 experimental units of 3 replicates (10 birds/replicate) as: negative control (basal diet), positive control (Lincomycin at the rate of 5g/bag), pure herbal blend at the rate of 150g/bag and pure herbal blend at the rate of 300g/bag. The data regarding weekly feed intake, body weight gain and feed conversion ratio were recorded, and fecal samples were collected at the end of starter and finisher phase for nutrient digestibility trial. The results of feed intake showed significant (P < 0.05) results in 1st (305g), 2nd (696.88g), 3rd (1046.9g) and 4th (1173.2g) week and feed conversion ratio indicated significant (P < 0.05) variations in 1st (2.54) and 4th (2.28) week of age. Also, both starter and finisher phase indicated significant (P < 0.05) differences among all treatment groups in feed intake (2023.4g) and (2302.6g) respectively. The statistical analysis indicated significant (P < 0.05) results in crop filling percentage (86.6%) after 2 hours of first feed supplementation. In case of nutrient digestibility trial, results showed significant (P < 0.05) values of crude protein and crude fat in starter phase as 69.65% and 56.62% respectively, and 69.57% and 48.55% respectively, in finisher phase. Based on overall results, it was concluded that the dietary inclusion of pure herbal blend containing neem tree leaves powder, garlic powder, ginger powder and turmeric powder increase the production performance of broilers.

Keywords: neem tree leave, garlic, ginger, herbal blend, broiler

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1540 Ten Patterns of Organizational Misconduct and a Descriptive Model of Interactions

Authors: Ali Abbas

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This paper presents a descriptive model of organizational misconduct based on observed patterns that occur before and after an ethical collapse. The patterns were classified by categorizing media articles in both "for-profit" and "not-for-profit" organizations. Based on the model parameters, the paper provides a descriptive model of various organizational deflection strategies under numerous scenarios, including situations where ethical complaints build-up, situations under which whistleblowers become more prevalent, situations where large scandals that relate to leadership occur, and strategies by which organizations deflect blame when pressure builds up or when media finds out. The model parameters start with the premise of a tolerance to double standards in unethical acts when conducted by leadership or by members of corporate governance. Following this premise, the model explains how organizations engage in discursive strategies to cover up the potential conflicts that arise, including secret agreements and weakening stakeholders who may oppose the organizational acts. Deflection strategies include "preemptive" and "post-complaint" secret agreements, absence of (or vague) documented procedures, engaging in blame and scapegoating, remaining silent on complaints until the media finds out, as well as being slow (if at all) to acknowledge misconduct and fast to cover it up. The results of this paper may be used to guide organizational leaders into the implications of such shortsighted strategies toward unethical acts, even if they are deemed legal. Validation of the model assumptions through numerous media articles is provided.

Keywords: ethical decision making, prediction, scandals, organizational strategies

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1539 Predicting Photovoltaic Energy Profile of Birzeit University Campus Based on Weather Forecast

Authors: Muhammad Abu-Khaizaran, Ahmad Faza’, Tariq Othman, Yahia Yousef

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This paper presents a study to provide sufficient and reliable information about constructing a Photovoltaic energy profile of the Birzeit University campus (BZU) based on the weather forecast. The developed Photovoltaic energy profile helps to predict the energy yield of the Photovoltaic systems based on the weather forecast and hence helps planning energy production and consumption. Two models will be developed in this paper; a Clear Sky Irradiance model and a Cloud-Cover Radiation model to predict the irradiance for a clear sky day and a cloudy day, respectively. The adopted procedure for developing such models takes into consideration two levels of abstraction. First, irradiance and weather data were acquired by a sensory (measurement) system installed on the rooftop of the Information Technology College building at Birzeit University campus. Second, power readings of a fully operational 51kW commercial Photovoltaic system installed in the University at the rooftop of the adjacent College of Pharmacy-Nursing and Health Professions building are used to validate the output of a simulation model and to help refine its structure. Based on a comparison between a mathematical model, which calculates Clear Sky Irradiance for the University location and two sets of accumulated measured data, it is found that the simulation system offers an accurate resemblance to the installed PV power station on clear sky days. However, these comparisons show a divergence between the expected energy yield and actual energy yield in extreme weather conditions, including clouding and soiling effects. Therefore, a more accurate prediction model for irradiance that takes into consideration weather factors, such as relative humidity and cloudiness, which affect irradiance, was developed; Cloud-Cover Radiation Model (CRM). The equivalent mathematical formulas implement corrections to provide more accurate inputs to the simulation system. The results of the CRM show a very good match with the actual measured irradiance during a cloudy day. The developed Photovoltaic profile helps in predicting the output energy yield of the Photovoltaic system installed at the University campus based on the predicted weather conditions. The simulation and practical results for both models are in a very good match.

Keywords: clear-sky irradiance model, cloud-cover radiation model, photovoltaic, weather forecast

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
1538 Benchmarking Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Hotel Revenue

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

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1537 Modified Side Plate Design to Suppress Lateral Torsional Buckling of H-Beam for Seismic Application

Authors: Erwin, Cheng-Cheng Chen, Charles J. Salim

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One of the method to solve the lateral torsional buckling (LTB) problem is by using side plates to increased the buckling resistance of the beam. Some modifications in designing the side plates are made in this study to simplify the construction in the field and reduce the cost. At certain region, side plates are not added: (1) At the beam end to preserve some spaces for bolt installation, but the beam is strengthened by adding cover plate at both flanges and (2) at the middle span of the beam where the moment is smaller. Three small scale full span beam specimens are tested under cyclic loading to investigate the LTB resistant and the ductility of the proposed design method. Test results show that the LTB deformation can be effectively suppressed and very high ductility level can be achieved. Following the test, a finite element analysis (FEA) model is established and is verified using the test results. An intensive parametric study is conducted using the established FEA model. The analysis reveals that the length of side plates is the most important parameter determining the performance of the beam and the required side plates length is determined by some parameters which are (1) beam depth to flange width ratio, (2) beam slenderness ratio (3) strength and thickness of the side plates, (4) compactness of beam web and flange, and (5) beam yield strength. At the end of the paper, a design formula to calculate the required side plate length is suggested.

Keywords: cover plate, earthquake resistant design, lateral torsional buckling, side plate, steel structure

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1536 Descriptive Study of Tropical Tree Species in Commercial Interest Biosphere Reserve Luki in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Authors: Armand Okende, Joëlle De Weerdt, Esther Fichtler, Maaike De Ridder, Hans Beeckman

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The rainforest plays a crucial role in regulating the climate balance. The biodiversity of tropical rainforests is undeniable, but many aspects remain poorly known, which directly influences its management. Despite the efforts of sustainable forest management, human pressure in terms of exploitation and smuggling of timber forms a problem compared to exploited species whose status is considered "vulnerable" on the IUCN red list compiled by. Commercial species in Class III of the Democratic Republic of Congo are the least known in the market operating, and their biology is unknown or non-existent. Identification of wood in terms of descriptions and anatomical measurements of the wood is in great demand for various stakeholders such as scientists, customs, IUCN, etc. The objective of this study is the qualitative and quantitative description of the anatomical characteristics of commercial species in Class III of DR Congo. The site of the Luki Biosphere Reserve was chosen because of its high tree species richness. This study focuses on the wood anatomy of 14 commercial species of Class III of DR Congo. Thirty-four wooden discs were collected for these species. The following parameters were measured in the field: Diameter at breast height (DBH), total height and geographic coordinates. Microtomy, identification of vessel parameters (diameter, density and grouping) and photograph of the microscopic sections and determining age were performed in this study. The results obtained are detailed anatomical descriptions of species in Class III of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Keywords: sustainable management of forest, rainforest, commercial species of class iii, vessel diameter, vessel density, grouping vessel

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1535 Estimating Understory Species Diversity of West Timor Tropical Savanna, Indonesia: The Basis for Planning an Integrated Management of Agricultural and Environmental Weeds and Invasive Species

Authors: M. L. Gaol, I. W. Mudita

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Indonesia is well known as a country covered by lush tropical rain forests, but in fact, the northeastern part of the country, within the areas geologically known as Lesser Sunda, the dominant vegetation is tropical savanna. Lesser Sunda is a chain of islands located closer to Australia than to islands in the other parts of the country. Among those of islands in the chain which is closes to Australia, and thereby most strongly affected by the hot and dry Australian climate, is the island of Timor, the western part of which belongs to Indonesia and the eastern part is a sovereign state East Timor. Regardless of being the most dominant vegetation cover, tropical savanna in West Timor, especially its understory, is rarely investigated. This research was therefore carried out to investigate the structure, composition and diversity of the understory of this tropical savanna as the basis for looking at the possibility of introducing other spesieis for various purposes. For this research, 14 terrestrial communities representing major types of the existing savannas in West Timor was selected with aid of the most recently available satellite imagery. At each community, one stand of the size of 50 m x 50 m most likely representing the community was as the site of observation for the type of savanna under investigation. At each of the 14 communities, 20 plots of 1 m x 1 m in size was placed at random to identify understory species and to count the total number of individuals and to estimate the cover of each species. Based on such counts and estimation, the important value of each species was later calculated. The results of this research indicated that the understory of savanna in West Timor consisted of 73 understory species. Of this number of species, 18 species are grasses and 55 are non-grasses. Although lower than non-grass species, grass species indeed dominated the savanna as indicated by their number of individuals (65.33 vs 34.67%), species cover (57.80 vs 42.20%), and important value (123.15 vs 76.85). Of the 14 communities, the lowest density of grass was 13.50/m2 and the highest was 417.50/m2. Of 18 grass species found, all were commonly found as agricultural weeds, whereas of 55 non-grass, 10 species were commonly found as agricultural weeds, environmental weeds, or invasive species. In terms of better managing the savanna in the region, these findings provided the basis for planning a more integrated approach in managing such agricultural and environmental weeds as well as invasive species by considering the structure, composition, and species diversity of the understory species existing in each site. These findings also provided the basis for better understanding the flora of the region as a whole and for developing a flora database of West Timor in future.

Keywords: tropical savanna, understory species, integrated management, weedy and invasive species

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
1534 Comparison of Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms to Diagnose and Predict Breast Cancer

Authors: F. Ghazalnaz Sharifonnasabi, Iman Makhdoom

Abstract:

Breast cancer is a serious health concern that affects many people around the world. According to a study published in the Breast journal, the global burden of breast cancer is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades. The number of deaths from breast cancer has been increasing over the years, but the age-standardized mortality rate has decreased in some countries. It’s important to be aware of the risk factors for breast cancer and to get regular check- ups to catch it early if it does occur. Machin learning techniques have been used to aid in the early detection and diagnosis of breast cancer. These techniques, that have been shown to be effective in predicting and diagnosing the disease, have become a research hotspot. In this study, we consider two deep learning approaches including: Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We also considered the five-machine learning algorithm titled: Decision Tree (C4.5), Naïve Bayesian (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) Algorithm and XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) on the Breast Cancer Wisconsin Diagnostic dataset. We have carried out the process of evaluating and comparing classifiers involving selecting appropriate metrics to evaluate classifier performance and selecting an appropriate tool to quantify this performance. The main purpose of the study is predicting and diagnosis breast cancer, applying the mentioned algorithms and also discovering of the most effective with respect to confusion matrix, accuracy and precision. It is realized that CNN outperformed all other classifiers and achieved the highest accuracy (0.982456). The work is implemented in the Anaconda environment based on Python programing language.

Keywords: breast cancer, multi-layer perceptron, Naïve Bayesian, SVM, decision tree, convolutional neural network, XGBoost, KNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
1533 Relationship between Chlorophyl Content and Calculated Index Values of Citrus Trees

Authors: Namik Kemal Sonmez

Abstract:

Based passive remote sensing technologies have been widely used in many plant species. However, use of these techniques in orange trees is limited. In this study, the relationships between chlorophyll content (Chl) and calculated red edge (RE) and vegetation index values of the citrus leave at different growth stages were formed the basis for the analysis. Canopy reflectance by hand-held spectroradiometer and total Chl analysis at the lab were measured simultaneously, from the random samples taken from four different parts of an orange orchard. Plant materials consisted of four different age groups of 15, 20, 25, and 30 years old orange trees. Reflectance measurements were conducted between 450 and 900 nanometer (nm) wavelength at four different bands (3 visible bands and 1 near-infrared band) at the four basic physiological periods (flowering, fruit setting, fruit maturity, and dormancy) of orange trees. According to the statistical analysis conducted, there was a strong relationship between the chlorophyll content and calculated indexes (p ≤ 0.01; R²= 0.925 at red edge and R²= 0.986 at vegetation index) at the fruit setting stage of 20 years old trees. Again at this stage, fruit setting, total Chl content values among all orange trees were significantly correlated at the RE and VI with the R² values of 0.672 and 0.635 at the 0.001 level, respectively. This indicated that the relationships between Chl content and index values were very strong at this stage, in comparison to the other stages.

Keywords: spectroradiometer, citrus, chlorophyll, reflectance, index

Procedia PDF Downloads 374
1532 Thick Data Techniques for Identifying Abnormality in Video Frames for Wireless Capsule Endoscopy

Authors: Jinan Fiaidhi, Sabah Mohammed, Petros Zezos

Abstract:

Capsule endoscopy (CE) is an established noninvasive diagnostic modality in investigating small bowel disease. CE has a pivotal role in assessing patients with suspected bleeding or identifying evidence of active Crohn's disease in the small bowel. However, CE produces lengthy videos with at least eighty thousand frames, with a frequency rate of 2 frames per second. Gastroenterologists cannot dedicate 8 to 15 hours to reading the CE video frames to arrive at a diagnosis. This is why the issue of analyzing CE videos based on modern artificial intelligence techniques becomes a necessity. However, machine learning, including deep learning, has failed to report robust results because of the lack of large samples to train its neural nets. In this paper, we are describing a thick data approach that learns from a few anchor images. We are using sound datasets like KVASIR and CrohnIPI to filter candidate frames that include interesting anomalies in any CE video. We are identifying candidate frames based on feature extraction to provide representative measures of the anomaly, like the size of the anomaly and the color contrast compared to the image background, and later feed these features to a decision tree that can classify the candidate frames as having a condition like the Crohn's Disease. Our thick data approach reported accuracy of detecting Crohn's Disease based on the availability of ulcer areas at the candidate frames for KVASIR was 89.9% and for the CrohnIPI was 83.3%. We are continuing our research to fine-tune our approach by adding more thick data methods for enhancing diagnosis accuracy.

Keywords: thick data analytics, capsule endoscopy, Crohn’s disease, siamese neural network, decision tree

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
1531 Systematic Evaluation of Convolutional Neural Network on Land Cover Classification from Remotely Sensed Images

Authors: Eiman Kattan, Hong Wei

Abstract:

In using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for classification, there is a set of hyperparameters available for the configuration purpose. This study aims to evaluate the impact of a range of parameters in CNN architecture i.e. AlexNet on land cover classification based on four remotely sensed datasets. The evaluation tests the influence of a set of hyperparameters on the classification performance. The parameters concerned are epoch values, batch size, and convolutional filter size against input image size. Thus, a set of experiments were conducted to specify the effectiveness of the selected parameters using two implementing approaches, named pertained and fine-tuned. We first explore the number of epochs under several selected batch size values (32, 64, 128 and 200). The impact of kernel size of convolutional filters (1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30) was evaluated against the image size under testing (64, 96, 128, 180 and 224), which gave us insight of the relationship between the size of convolutional filters and image size. To generalise the validation, four remote sensing datasets, AID, RSD, UCMerced and RSCCN, which have different land covers and are publicly available, were used in the experiments. These datasets have a wide diversity of input data, such as number of classes, amount of labelled data, and texture patterns. A specifically designed interactive deep learning GPU training platform for image classification (Nvidia Digit) was employed in the experiments. It has shown efficiency in both training and testing. The results have shown that increasing the number of epochs leads to a higher accuracy rate, as expected. However, the convergence state is highly related to datasets. For the batch size evaluation, it has shown that a larger batch size slightly decreases the classification accuracy compared to a small batch size. For example, selecting the value 32 as the batch size on the RSCCN dataset achieves the accuracy rate of 90.34 % at the 11th epoch while decreasing the epoch value to one makes the accuracy rate drop to 74%. On the other extreme, setting an increased value of batch size to 200 decreases the accuracy rate at the 11th epoch is 86.5%, and 63% when using one epoch only. On the other hand, selecting the kernel size is loosely related to data set. From a practical point of view, the filter size 20 produces 70.4286%. The last performed image size experiment shows a dependency in the accuracy improvement. However, an expensive performance gain had been noticed. The represented conclusion opens the opportunities toward a better classification performance in various applications such as planetary remote sensing.

Keywords: CNNs, hyperparamters, remote sensing, land cover, land use

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1530 Contrasting Patterns of Accumulation, Partitioning, and Reallocation Patterns of Dm and N Within the Maize Canopy Under Decreased N Availabilities

Authors: Panpan Fan, Bo Ming, Niels P. R. Anten, Jochem B. Evers, Yaoyao Li, Shaokun Li, Ruizhi Xie

Abstract:

The reallocation of dry matter (DM) and nitrogen (N) from vegetative tissues to the grain sinks are critical for grain yield. The objective of this study was to quantify the DM and N accumulation, partition, and reallocation at the single-leaf, different-organ, and individual-plant scales and clarify the responses to different levels of N availabilities. A two-year field experiment was conducted in Jinlin province, Northeast China, with three N fertilizer rates to create the different N availability levels: N0 (N deficiency), N1(low supply), and N2 (high supply). The results showed that grain N depends more on reallocations of vegetative organs compared with grain DM. Besides, vegetative organs reallocated more DM and N to grain under lower N availability, whereas more grain DM and grain N were derived from post-silking leaf photosynthesis and post-silking N uptake from the soil under high N availability. Furthermore, the reallocation amount and reallocation efficiency of leaf DM and leaf N content differed among leaf ranks and were regulated by N availability; specifically, the DM reallocation occurs mainly on senesced leaves, whereas the leaf N reallocation was in live leaves. These results provide a theoretical basis for deriving parameters in crop models for the simulation of the demand, uptake, partition, and reallocation processes of DM and N.

Keywords: dry matter, leaf N content, leaf rank, N availability, reallocation efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
1529 Investigating the Effectiveness of a 3D Printed Composite Mold

Authors: Peng Hao Wang, Garam Kim, Ronald Sterkenburg

Abstract:

In composite manufacturing, the fabrication of tooling and tooling maintenance contributes to a large portion of the total cost. However, as the applications of composite materials continue to increase, there is also a growing demand for more tooling. The demand for more tooling places heavy emphasis on the industry’s ability to fabricate high quality tools while maintaining the tool’s cost effectiveness. One of the popular techniques of tool fabrication currently being developed utilizes additive manufacturing technology known as 3D printing. The popularity of 3D printing is due to 3D printing’s ability to maintain low material waste, low cost, and quick fabrication time. In this study, a team of Purdue University School of Aviation and Transportation Technology (SATT) faculty and students investigated the effectiveness of a 3D printed composite mold. A steel valve cover from an aircraft reciprocating engine was modeled utilizing 3D scanning and computer-aided design (CAD) to create a 3D printed composite mold. The mold was used to fabricate carbon fiber versions of the aircraft reciprocating engine valve cover. The carbon fiber valve covers were evaluated for dimensional accuracy and quality while the 3D printed composite mold was evaluated for durability and dimensional stability. The data collected from this study provided valuable information in the understanding of 3D printed composite molds, potential improvements for the molds, and considerations for future tooling design.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, carbon fiber, composite tooling, molds

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
1528 Effect of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in a Sub-Humid Sub-Tropical Region of Eastern India

Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

Abstract:

The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
1527 Development of Gully Erosion Prediction Model in Sokoto State, Nigeria, using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Techniques

Authors: Nathaniel Bayode Eniolorunda, Murtala Abubakar Gada, Sheikh Danjuma Abubakar

Abstract:

The challenge of erosion in the study area is persistent, suggesting the need for a better understanding of the mechanisms that drive it. Thus, the study evolved a predictive erosion model (RUSLE_Sok), deploying Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. The nature and pattern of the factors of erosion were characterized, while soil losses were quantified. Factors’ impacts were also measured, and the morphometry of gullies was described. Data on the five factors of RUSLE and distances to settlements, rivers and roads (K, R, LS, P, C, DS DRd and DRv) were combined and processed following standard RS and GIS algorithms. Harmonized World Soil Data (HWSD), Shuttle Radar Topographical Mission (SRTM) image, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Sentinel-2 image accessed and processed within the Google Earth Engine, road network and settlements were the data combined and calibrated into the factors for erosion modeling. A gully morphometric study was conducted at some purposively selected sites. Factors of soil erosion showed low, moderate, to high patterns. Soil losses ranged from 0 to 32.81 tons/ha/year, classified into low (97.6%), moderate (0.2%), severe (1.1%) and very severe (1.05%) forms. The multiple regression analysis shows that factors statistically significantly predicted soil loss, F (8, 153) = 55.663, p < .0005. Except for the C-Factor with a negative coefficient, all other factors were positive, with contributions in the order of LS>C>R>P>DRv>K>DS>DRd. Gullies are generally from less than 100m to about 3km in length. Average minimum and maximum depths at gully heads are 0.6 and 1.2m, while those at mid-stream are 1 and 1.9m, respectively. The minimum downstream depth is 1.3m, while that for the maximum is 4.7m. Deeper gullies exist in proximity to rivers. With minimum and maximum gully elevation values ranging between 229 and 338m and an average slope of about 3.2%, the study area is relatively flat. The study concluded that major erosion influencers in the study area are topography and vegetation cover and that the RUSLE_Sok well predicted soil loss more effectively than ordinary RUSLE. The adoption of conservation measures such as tree planting and contour ploughing on sloppy farmlands was recommended.

Keywords: RUSLE_Sok, Sokoto, google earth engine, sentinel-2, erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
1526 The Extent of Virgin Olive-Oil Prices' Distribution Revealing the Behavior of Market Speculators

Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

Abstract:

The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 340
1525 Land-Use Suitability Analysis for Merauke Agriculture Estates

Authors: Sidharta Sahirman, Ardiansyah, Muhammad Rifan, Edy-Melmambessy

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Merauke district in Papua, Indonesia has a strategic position and natural potential for the development of agricultural industry. The development of agriculture in this region is being accelerated as part of Indonesian Government’s declaration announcing Merauke as one of future national food barns. Therefore, land-use suitability analysis for Merauke need to be performed. As a result, the mapping for future agriculture-based industries can be done optimally. In this research, a case study is carried out in Semangga sub district. The objective of this study is to determine the suitability of Merauke land for some food crops. A modified agro-ecological zoning is applied to reach the objective. In this research, land cover based on satellite imagery is combined with soil, water and climate survey results to come up with preliminary zoning. Considering the special characteristics of Merauke community, the agricultural zoning maps resulted based on those inputs will be combined with socio-economic information and culture to determine the final zoning map for agricultural industry in Merauke. Examples of culture are customary rights of local residents and the rights of local people and their own local food patterns. This paper presents the results of first year of the two-year research project funded by The Indonesian Government through MP3EI schema. It shares the findings of land cover studies, the distribution of soil physical and chemical parameters, as well as suitability analysis of Semangga sub-district for five different food plants.

Keywords: agriculture, agro-ecological, Merauke, zoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
1524 Graphical Theoretical Construction of Discrete time Share Price Paths from Matroid

Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

Abstract:

The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
1523 Case Study Analysis of 2017 European Railway Traffic Management Incident: The Application of System for Investigation of Railway Interfaces Methodology

Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
1522 Load Forecasting in Microgrid Systems with R and Cortana Intelligence Suite

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

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Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure Machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 299