Search results for: rainfall events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2689

Search results for: rainfall events

2089 Reverse Impact of Temperature as Climate Factor on Milk Production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari

Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

Abstract:

When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
2088 Structural Performance of Prefabricated Concrete and Reinforced Concrete Structural Walls under Blast Loads

Authors: S. Kamil Akin, Turgut Acikara

Abstract:

In recent years the world and our country has experienced several explosion events occurred due to terrorist attacks and accidents. In these explosion events many people have lost their lives and many buildings have been damaged. If structures were designed taking the blast loads into account, these results may not have happened or the casualties would have been less. In this thesis analysis of the protection walls have been conducted to prevent the building damage from blast loads. These analyzes was carried out for two different types of wall, concrete and reinforced concrete. Analyses were carried out on four different thicknesses of each wall element. In each wall element the stresses and displacements of the exposed surface due to the detonation charge has been calculated. The limit shear stress and displacement of the wall element according to their material properties has been taken into account. As the result of the analyses the standoff distances and TNT equivalent amount has been determined. According to equivalent TNT amounts and standoff distances the structural response of the protective wall elements has been observed. These structural responses have been observed by ABAQUS finite element package. Explosion loads were brought into effect to the protective wall element models by using the ABAQUS / CONWEP.

Keywords: blast loading, blast wave, TNT equivalent method, CONWEP, finite element analysis, detonation

Procedia PDF Downloads 438
2087 The Role of the Media in Foreign Policy Formulation: A Case Study of Turkey-Greece Relations from 2004 to 2011

Authors: Mohammed Kamal Alhassan

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The closeness of Turkey to Greece has often been a cause of many disagreements between the people of the two countries. This is against the backdrop of the fact that they have many things in common. In the past, the two countries have had unhealthy relations, which threatened to cut diplomatic ties between them. The 1996 Imia/ Kardak incident and the Öcalan crisis, for instance, nearly resulted in war between them. There were events that also brought the two countries together, for instance, the 1999 earthquake. This was because many lives were lost during the disaster. It is important to note that these events were duly covered by the media in the two countries. First of all, the study intends to look at the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy in Turkey-Greece relations. It examines the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy with particular emphasis on agenda-setting and positioning theories of the media as the theoretical framework. Also, the study will discuss the media landscapes in Turkey and Greece, the ownership pattern of the media sector and the relationship between media organizations and the government in the two countries. Moreover, the core foreign policy objectives of the countries will be delved into. Finally, the study employs a qualitative method to critically analyze the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy in Turkey-Greece relations. It uses the invitation of the Former Prime Minister of Greece, George Andreas Papandreou, to the Ambassadors Conference in Turkey as a case study. In the end, the analysis will prove that, indeed, the media in Greece was effective in the formulation of foreign policy in its relations with Turkey.

Keywords: media organizations, foreign policy, government, diplomacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
2086 Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on Catchment Hydrology of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Authors: Gashaw Gismu Chakilu

Abstract:

Climate and land cover change are very important issues in terms of global context and their responses to environmental and socio-economic drivers. The dynamic of these two factors is currently affecting the environment in unbalanced way including watershed hydrology. In this paper individual and combined impacts of climate change and land use land cover change on hydrological processes were evaluated through applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. The regional climate; temperature and rainfall data of the past 40 years in the study area were prepared and changes were detected by using trend analysis applying Mann-Kendall trend test. The land use land cover data were obtained from land sat image and processed by ERDAS IMAGIN 2010 software. Three land use land cover data; 1973, 1986, and 2013 were prepared and these data were used for base line, model calibration and change study respectively. The effects of these changes on high flow and low flow of the catchment have also been evaluated separately. The high flow of the catchment for these two decades was analyzed by using Annual Maximum (AM) model and the low flow was evaluated by seven day sustained low flow model. Both temperature and rainfall showed increasing trend; and then the extent of changes were evaluated in terms of monthly bases by using two decadal time periods; 1973-1982 was taken as baseline and 2004-2013 was used as change study. The efficiency of the model was determined by Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and Relative Volume error (RVe) and their values were 0.65 and 0.032 for calibration and 0.62 and 0.0051 for validation respectively. The impact of climate change was higher than that of land use land cover change on stream flow of the catchment; the flow has been increasing by 16.86% and 7.25% due to climate and LULC change respectively, and the combined change effect accounted 22.13% flow increment. The overall results of the study indicated that Climate change is more responsible for high flow than low flow; and reversely the land use land cover change showed more significant effect on low flow than high flow of the catchment. From the result we conclude that the hydrology of the catchment has been altered because of changes of climate and land cover of the study area.

Keywords: climate, LULC, SWAT, Ethiopia

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2085 Design and Construction Demeanor of a Very High Embankment Using Geosynthetics

Authors: Mariya Dayana, Budhmal Jain

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Kannur International Airport Ltd. (KIAL) is a new Greenfield airport project with airside development on an undulating terrain with an average height of 90m above Mean Sea Level (MSL) and a maximum height of 142m. To accommodate the desired Runway length and Runway End Safety Area (RESA) at both the ends along the proposed alignment, it resulted in 45.5 million cubic meters in cutting and filling. The insufficient availability of land for the construction of free slope embankment at RESA 07 end resulted in the design and construction of Reinforced Soil Slope (RSS) with a maximum slope of 65 degrees. An embankment fill of average 70m height with steep slopes located in high rainfall area is a unique feature of this project. The design and construction was challenging being asymmetrical with curves and bends. The fill was reinforced with high strength Uniaxial geogrids laid perpendicular to the slope. Weld mesh wrapped with coir mat acted as the facia units to protect it against surface failure. Face anchorage were also provided by wrapping the geogrids along the facia units where the slope angle was steeper than 45 degrees. Considering high rainfall received on this table top airport site, extensive drainage system was designed for the high embankment fill. Gabion wall up to 10m height were also designed and constructed along the boundary to accommodate the toe of the RSS fill beside the jeepable track at the base level. The design of RSS fill was done using ReSSA software and verified in PLAXIS 2D modeling. Both slip surface failure and wedge failure cases were considered in static and seismic analysis for local and global failure cases. The site won excavated laterite soil was used as the fill material for the construction. Extensive field and laboratory tests were conducted during the construction of RSS system for quality assurance. This paper represents a case study detailing the design and construction of a very high embankment using geosynthetics for the provision of Runway length and RESA area.

Keywords: airport, embankment, gabion, high strength uniaxial geogrid, kial, laterite soil, plaxis 2d

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2084 Sleep Paralysis: Its Genesis and Qualitative Analysis of Case Histories

Authors: Nandita Chaube, S. S. Nathawat

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Sleep paralysis is a state of sleep disturbance in which people experience hypnogogic or hypnopompic hallucinations marked by an inability to move their bodies or speak out while reporting the consciousness about their surroundings. Philosophical explanation of sleep paralysis has been quoted in the ancient texts in terms of incubus and succubus. However, pathologically, it has been linked to several disorders including narcolepsy, migraines, anxiety disorders, and obstructive sleep apnea but it can also occur in isolation. Some other significant factors may include perceived stress, spiritual and paranormal beliefs, etc. Hence, a qualitative analysis of five such cases reporting symptoms of sleep disturbances with the criterion of sleep paralysis has been reported here. The study considered various psychological factors like stressful life events, feelings of inadequacy, spirituality, and paranormal beliefs. Results disclosed that four of the five cases were inclined towards the paranormal beliefs and the entire sample indicated a noticeably augmented level of spirituality and feelings of inadequacy. Furthermore, three cases reported experiencing greater stress following life events. Among other factors, all the cases were characterized with sleeping in the supine position, sleeping alone, an experience of fear, a sense of pressure on their chest, a presence of someone in the room and increased level of feelings of inadequacy.

Keywords: genesis, inadequacy, paranormal, sleep-paralysis, spiritual, stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
2083 Quality Standards for Emergency Response: A Methodological Framework

Authors: Jennifer E. Lynette

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This study describes the development process of a methodological framework for quality standards used to measure the efficiency and quality of response efforts of trained personnel at emergency events. This paper describes the techniques used to develop the initial framework and its potential application to professions under the broader field of emergency management. The example described in detail in this paper applies the framework specifically to fire response activities by firefighters. Within the quality standards framework, the fire response process is chronologically mapped. Individual variables within the sequence of events are identified. Through in-person data collection, questionnaires, interviews, and the expansion of the incident reporting system, this study identifies and categorizes previously unrecorded variables involved in the response phase of a fire. Following a data analysis of each variable using a quantitative or qualitative assessment, the variables are ranked pertaining to the magnitude of their impact to the event outcome. Among others, key indicators of quality performance in the analysis involve decision communication, resource utilization, response techniques, and response time. Through the application of this framework and subsequent utilization of quality standards indicators, there is potential to increase efficiency in the response phase of an emergency event; thereby saving additional lives, property, and resources.

Keywords: emergency management, fire, quality standards, response

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2082 Dynamic Comovements between Exchange Rates, Stock Prices and Oil Prices: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Latin American Markets

Authors: Nini Johana Marin Rodriguez

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This paper applies DCC, EWMA and OGARCH models to compare the dynamic correlations between exchange rates, oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets to examine the time-varying conditional correlations to the daily oil prices and index returns in relation to the US dollar/local currency for developed (Canada and Mexico) and emerging Latin American markets (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). Changes in correlation interactions are indicative of structural changes in market linkages with implications to contagion and interdependence. For each pair of stock price-exchange rate and oil price-US dollar/local currency, empirical evidence confirms of a strengthening negative correlation in the last decade. Methodologies suggest only two events have significatively impact in the countries analyzed: global financial crisis and Europe crisis, both events are associated with shifts of correlations to stronger negative level for most of the pairs analyzed. While, the first event has a shifting effect on mainly emerging members, the latter affects developed members. The identification of these relationships provides benefits in risk diversification and inflation targeting.

Keywords: crude oil, dynamic conditional correlation, exchange rates, interdependence, stock prices

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2081 Study on Runoff Allocation Responsibilities of Different Land Uses in a Single Catchment Area

Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Jin-Cheng Fu, Chia-En Feng

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In recent years, the rapid development of urban land in Taiwan has led to the constant increase of the areas of impervious surface, which has increased the risk of waterlogging during heavy rainfall. Therefore, in recent years, promoting runoff allocation responsibilities has often been used as a means of reducing regional flooding. In this study, the single catchment area covering both urban and rural land as the study area is discussed. Based on Storm Water Management Model, urban and rural land in a single catchment area was explored to develop the runoff allocation responsibilities according to their respective control regulation on land use. The impacts of runoff increment and reduction in sub-catchment area were studied to understand the impact of highly developed urban land on the reduction of flood risk of rural land at the back end. The results showed that the rainfall with 1 hour short delay of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years return period. If the study area was fully developed, the peak discharge at the outlet would increase by 24.46% -22.97% without runoff allocation responsibilities. The front-end urban land would increase runoff from back-end of rural land by 76.19% -46.51%. However, if runoff allocation responsibilities were carried out in the study area, the peak discharge could be reduced by 58.38-63.08%, which could make the front-end to reduce 54.05% -23.81% of the peak flow to the back-end. In addition, the researchers found that if it was seen from the perspective of runoff allocation responsibilities of per unit area, the residential area of urban land would benefit from the relevant laws and regulations of the urban system, which would have a better effect of reducing flood than the residential land in rural land. For rural land, the development scale of residential land was generally small, which made the effect of flood reduction better than that of industrial land. Agricultural land requires a large area of land, resulting in the lowest share of the flow per unit area. From the point of the planners, this study suggests that for the rural land around the city, its responsibility should be assigned to share the runoff. And setting up rain water storage facilities in the same way as urban land, can also take stock of agricultural land resources to increase the ridge of field for flood storage, in order to improve regional disaster reduction capacity and resilience.

Keywords: runoff allocation responsibilities, land use, flood mitigation, SWMM

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2080 Sunspot Cycles: Illuminating Humanity's Mysteries

Authors: Aghamusa Azizov

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This study investigates the correlation between solar activity and sentiment in news media coverage, using a large-scale dataset of solar activity since 1750 and over 15 million articles from "The New York Times" dating from 1851 onwards. Employing Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools—TextBlob, Vader, and DistillBERT—the research examines the extent to which fluctuations in solar phenomena are reflected in the sentiment of historical news narratives. The findings reveal that the correlation between solar activity and media sentiment is generally negligible, suggesting a weak influence of solar patterns on the portrayal of events in news media. Notably, a moderate positive correlation was observed between the sentiments derived from TextBlob and Vader, indicating consistency across NLP tools. The analysis provides insights into the historical impact of solar activity on human affairs and highlights the importance of using multiple analytical methods to understand complex relationships in large datasets. The study contributes to the broader understanding of how extraterrestrial factors may intersect with media-reported events and underlines the intricate nature of interdisciplinary research in the data science and historical domains.

Keywords: solar activity correlation, media sentiment analysis, natural language processing, historical event patterns

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2079 Carl Wernicke and the Origin of Neurolinguistics in Breslau: A Case Study in the Domain of the History of Linguistics

Authors: Aneta Daniel

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The subject of the study is the exploration of the origins and dynamics of the development of language studies, which have been labelled as neurolinguistics. It is worth mentioning that the origins of neurolinguistics are to be found in the research conducted by German scientists before the Second World War in Breslau Universität (presently Wroclaw). The dominant figure in these studies was professor Carl Wernicke, whose students continued and creatively developed projects of their master within this area. Professor Carl Wernicke, a German physician, anatomist, psychiatrist, and neuropathologist, is primarily known for his influential research on aphasia. His research, as well as those conducted by professor Paul Broca, has led to breakthroughs in the location of brain functions, particularly speech. Years later the theses of the pioneers of cognitive neurology (Carl Wernicke and Paul Broca) were developed by other neurolinguists. The main objective of the investigation is the reconstruction of the group of scientists –the students of Carl Wernicke– who contributed to the development of neurolinguistics. The scholars were mainly neurologists and psychiatrists and dealt with the branch of science that had not been named neurolinguistics at that time. The profiles of the scholars will be analysed and presented as the members of the group of researchers who have contributed to the breakthroughs in psychology and neuroscience. The research material consists of archival records documenting the research of professor Carl Wernicke and the researchers from Breslau (presently Wroclaw) which is one of the fastest growing cities in Europe. In 1870, when Carl Wernicke became the medical doctor, Breslau was full of cultural events: festivals and circus shows were held in the city center. Today we can come back to these events due to 'Breslauer Zeitung (1870)', which precisely describes all the events that took place on particular days. It is worth noting that those were the beginnings of antisemitism in Breslau. Many theses and articles that have survived in the libraries in Wroclaw and all over the world contribute to the development of neuroscience. The history of research on the brain and speech analysis, including the history of psychology and neuroscience, areas from which neurolinguistics is derived, will be presented.

Keywords: Aphasia, brain injury, Carl Wernicke, language, neurolinguistics

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2078 Disentangling the Sources and Context of Daily Work Stress: Study Protocol of a Comprehensive Real-Time Modelling Study Using Portable Devices

Authors: Larissa Bolliger, Junoš Lukan, Mitja Lustrek, Dirk De Bacquer, Els Clays

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Introduction and Aim: Chronic workplace stress and its health-related consequences like mental and cardiovascular diseases have been widely investigated. This project focuses on the sources and context of psychosocial daily workplace stress in a real-world setting. The main objective is to analyze and model real-time relationships between (1) psychosocial stress experiences within the natural work environment, (2) micro-level work activities and events, and (3) physiological signals and behaviors in office workers. Methods: An Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) protocol has been developed, partly building on machine learning techniques. Empatica® wristbands will be used for real-life detection of stress from physiological signals; micro-level activities and events at work will be based on smartphone registrations, further processed according to an automated computer algorithm. A field study including 100 office-based workers with high-level problem-solving tasks like managers and researchers will be implemented in Slovenia and Belgium (50 in each country). Data mining and state-of-the-art statistical methods – mainly multilevel statistical modelling for repeated data – will be used. Expected Results and Impact: The project findings will provide novel contributions to the field of occupational health research. While traditional assessments provide information about global perceived state of chronic stress exposure, the EMA approach is expected to bring new insights about daily fluctuating work stress experiences, especially micro-level events and activities at work that induce acute physiological stress responses. The project is therefore likely to generate further evidence on relevant stressors in a real-time working environment and hence make it possible to advise on workplace procedures and policies for reducing stress.

Keywords: ecological momentary assessment, real-time, stress, work

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
2077 The Effect of Fish and Krill Oil on Warfarin Control

Authors: Rebecca Pryce, Nijole Bernaitis, Andrew K. Davey, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie

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Background: Warfarin is an oral anticoagulant widely used in the prevention of strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and in the treatment and prevention of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Regular monitoring of Internationalised Normalised Ratio (INR) is required to ensure therapeutic benefit with time in therapeutic range (TTR) used to measure warfarin control. A number of factors influence TTR including diet, concurrent illness, and drug interactions. Extensive literature exists regarding the effect of conventional medicines on warfarin control, but documented interactions relating to complementary medicines are limited. It has been postulated that fish oil and krill oil supplementation may affect warfarin due to their association with bleeding events. However, to date little is known as to whether fish and krill oil significantly alter the incidence of bleeding with warfarin or impact on warfarin control. Aim:To assess the influence of fish oil and krill oil supplementation on warfarin control in AF and DVT patients by determining the influence of these supplements on TTR and bleeding events. Methods:A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted utilising patient information from a large private pathology practice in Queensland. AF and DVT patients receiving warfarin management by the pathology practice were identified and their TTR calculated using the Rosendaal method. Concurrent medications were analysed and patients taking no other interacting medicines were identified and divided according to users of fish oil and krill oil supplements and those taking no supplements. Study variables included TTR and the incidence of bleeding with exclusion criteria being less than 30 days of treatment with warfarin. Subject characteristics were reported as the mean and standard deviation for continuous data and number and percentages for nominal or categorical data. Data was analysed using GraphPad InStat Version 3 with a p value of <0.05 considered to be statistically significant. Results:Of the 2081 patients assessed for inclusion into this study, a total of 573 warfarin users met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 416 (72.6%) patients were AF patients and 157 (27.4%) DVT patients and overall there were 316 (55.1%) male and 257 (44.9%) female patients. 145 patients were included in the fish oil/krill oil group (supplement) and 428 were included in the control group. The mean TTR of supplement users was 86.9% and for the control group 84.7% with no significant difference between these groups. Control patients experienced 1.6 times the number of minor bleeds per person compared to supplement patients and 1.2 times the number of major bleeds per person. However, this was not statistically significant nor was the comparison between thrombotic events. Conclusion: No significant difference was found between supplement and control patients in terms of mean TTR, the number of bleeds and thrombotic events. Fish oil and krill oil supplements when used concurrently with warfarin do not significantly affect warfarin control as measured by TTR and bleeding incidence.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, deep vein thormbosis, fish oil, krill oil, warfarin

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2076 Effect of Climate Change on Rainfall Induced Failures for Embankment Slopes in Timor-Leste

Authors: Kuo Chieh Chao, Thishani Amarathunga, Sangam Shrestha

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Rainfall induced slope failures are one of the most damaging and disastrous natural hazards which occur frequently in the world. This type of sliding mainly occurs in the zone above the groundwater level in silty/sandy soils. When the rainwater begins to infiltrate into the vadose zone of the soil, the negative pore-water pressure tends to decrease and reduce the shear strength of soil material. Climate change has resulted in excessive and unpredictable rainfall in all around the world, resulting in landslides with dire consequences to human lives and infrastructure. Such problems could be overcome by examining in detail the causes for such slope failures and recommending effective repair plans for vulnerable locations by considering future climatic change. The selected area for this study is located in the road rehabilitation section from Maubara to Mota Ain road in Timor-Leste. Slope failures and cracks have occurred in 2013 and after repairs reoccurred again in 2017 subsequent to heavy rains. Both observed and future predicted climate data analyses were conducted to understand the severe precipitation conditions in past and future. Observed climate data were collected from NOAA global climate data portal. CORDEX data portal was used to collect Regional Climate Model (RCM) future predicted climate data. Both observed and RCM data were extracted to location-based data using ArcGIS Software. Linear scaling method was used for the bias correction of future data and bias corrected climate data were assigned to GeoStudio Software. Precipitations of wet seasons (December to March ) in 2007 to 2013 is higher than 2001-2006 period and it is more than nearly 40% higher precipitation than usual monthly average precipitation of 160mm.The results of seepage analyses which were carried out using SEEP/W model with observed climate, clearly demonstrated that the pore water pressure within the fill slope was significantly increased due to the increase of the infiltration during the wet season of 2013.One main Regional Climate Models (RCM) was analyzed in order to predict future climate variation under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).In the projected period of 76 years ahead from 2014, shows that the amount of precipitation is considerably getting higher in the future in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical pore water pressure conditions during 2014-2090 were used in order to recommend appropriate remediation methods. Results of slope stability analyses indicated that the factor of safety of the fill slopes was reduced from 1.226 to 0.793 during the dry season to wet season in 2013.Results of future slope stability which were obtained using SLOPE/W model for the RCP emissions scenarios depict that, the use of tieback anchors and geogrids in slope protection could be effective in increasing the stability of slopes to an acceptable level during the wet seasons. Moreover, methods and procedures like monitoring of slopes showing signs or susceptible for movement and installing surface protections could be used to increase the stability of slopes.

Keywords: climate change, precipitation, SEEP/W, SLOPE/W, unsaturated soil

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2075 Acceleration and Deceleration Behavior in the Vicinity of a Speed Camera, and Speed Section Control

Authors: Jean Felix Tuyisingize

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Speeding or inappropriate speed is a major problem worldwide, contributing to 10-15% of road crashes and 30% of fatal injury crashes. The consequences of speeding put the driver's life at risk and the lives of other road users like motorists, cyclists, and pedestrians. To control vehicle speeds, governments, and traffic authorities enforced speed regulations through speed cameras and speed section control, which monitor all vehicle speeds and detect plate numbers to levy penalties. However, speed limit violations are prevalent, even on motorways with speed cameras. The problem with speed cameras is that they alter driver behaviors, and their effect declines with increasing distance from the speed camera location. Drivers decelerate short distances before the camera and vigorously accelerate above the speed limit just after passing by the camera. The sudden decelerating near cameras causes the drivers to try to make up for lost time after passing it, and they do this by speeding up, resulting in a phenomenon known as the "Kangaroo jump" or "V-profile" around camera/ASSC areas. This study investigated the impact of speed enforcement devices, specifically Average Speed Section Control (ASSCs) and fixed cameras, on acceleration and deceleration events within their vicinity. The research employed advanced statistical and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis on naturalistic driving data, to uncover speeding patterns near the speed enforcement systems. The study revealed a notable concentration of events within a 600-meter radius of enforcement devices, suggesting their influence on driver behaviors within a specific range. However, most of these events are of low severity, suggesting that drivers may not significantly alter their speed upon encountering these devices. This behavior could be attributed to several reasons, such as consistently maintaining safe speeds or using real-time in-vehicle intervention systems. The complexity of driver behavior is also highlighted, indicating the potential influence of factors like traffic density, road conditions, weather, time of day, and driver characteristics. Further, the study highlighted that high-severity events often occurred outside speed enforcement zones, particularly around intersections, indicating these as potential hotspots for drastic speed changes. These findings call for a broader perspective on traffic safety interventions beyond reliance on speed enforcement devices. However, the study acknowledges certain limitations, such as its reliance on a specific geographical focus, which may impact the broad applicability of the findings. Additionally, the severity of speed modification events was categorized into low, medium, and high, which could oversimplify the continuum of speed changes and potentially mask trends within each category. This research contributes valuable insights to traffic safety and driver behavior literature, illuminating the complexity of driver behavior and the potential influence of factors beyond the presence of speed enforcement devices. Future research directions may employ various categories of event severity. They may also explore the role of in-vehicle technologies, driver characteristics, and a broader set of environmental variables in driving behavior and traffic safety.

Keywords: acceleration, deceleration, speeding, inappropriate speed, speed enforcement cameras

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2074 The Development of Noctiluca scintillans Algal Bloom in Coastal Waters of Muscat, Sulanate of Oman

Authors: Aysha Al Sha'aibi

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Algal blooms of the dinoflagellate species Noctiluca scintillans became frequent events in Omani waters. The current study aims at elucidating the abundance, size variation and observations on the feeding mechanism performed by this species during the winter bloom. An attempt was made, to relate observed biological parameters of the Noctiluca population to environmental factors. Field studies spanned the period from December 2014 to April 2015. Samples were collected from Bandar Rawdah (Muscat region) by Bongo nets, twice per week, from the surface and the integrated upper mixed layer. The measured environmental variables were: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, turbidity, nitrite, phosphate, wind speed and rainfall. During the winter bloom (from December 2014 through February 2015), the abundance exhibited the highest concentration on 17 February (640.24×106 cell.L-1) in oblique samples and 83.9x103 cell.L-1 in surface samples, with a subsequent decline up to the end of April. The average number of food vacuoles inside Noctiluca cells was 1.5 per cell; the percentage of feeding Noctiluca compared to the entire population varied from 0.01% to 0.03%. Both the surface area of the Noctiluca symbionts (Pedinomonas noctilucae) and cell diameter were maximal in December. In oblique samples the highest average cell diameter and the surface area of symbiont algae were 751.7 µm and 179.2x103 µm2 respectively. In surface samples, highest average cell diameter and the surface area of symbionts were 760 µm and 284.05x103 µm2 respectively. No significant correlations were detected between Noctiluca’s biological parameters and environmental variables except for the correlation between cell diameter and chlorophyll a, also between symbiotic algae surface area and chlorophyll a. The high correlation of chlorophyll a was as a reason of endosymbiotic algae Pedinomonas noctilucae and green Noctiluca enhanced chlorophyll during bloom. All correlations among biological parameters were significant; they are perhaps one of major factors that mediating high growth rates, generating millions of cell per liter in a short time range. The results gained from this study will provide a beneficial background for understanding deeply the development of coastal algal blooms of Noctiluca scintillans. Moreover, results could be used in different applications related to marine environment.

Keywords: abundance, feeding activities, Noctiluca scintillans, Oman

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2073 Temporospatial Mediator: Site-Specific Theatre within Cultural Heritages

Authors: Ching-Pin Tseng

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Cultural heritages are tangible and intangible catalysts for recollecting collective memories and cultural signification. Through visiting the heritage and with the aid of exhibition and visual indications, the visitor may visually and spatially grasp some fragments of the stories and occurrences of the site. However, there may be some discrepancies between the narration of historical happenings that occurred at the place and the spatial exhibition of the historic monument. Narratives of collective events may not be revealed merely by physical relics or objects. In order to build up a connection between the past and the present, the paper thus intends to discuss what means can engender vitalizations within cultural heritages. As the preservation of cultural heritages has been a universal consensus and common interests, its association with modern lives has also been an important issue. The paper will explore some site-specific theatres held in the art festivals in the south of Taiwan so as to examine the correlation between site-specific performances and the conservation of historic monuments. In the light of Victor Hugo’s argument that the place where events happened before can be silent characters for representing the reality of art and for impressing the spectator, this paper argues that site-specific theatres may bring vitality into tangible cultural heritages. At the end of this paper, the notion of localization will be utilized to examine the spatial setting and the materiality of scenic design in relation to the site-specific theatres within cultural heritages.

Keywords: site-specificity, cultural heritage, localization, materiality

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2072 Dietary Flaxseed Decreases Central Blood Pressure and the Concentrations of Plasma Oxylipins Associated with Hypertension in Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease

Authors: Stephanie PB Caligiuri, Harold M Aukema, Delfin Rodriguez-Leyva, Amir Ravandi, Randy Guzman, Grant N. Pierce

Abstract:

Background: Hypertension leads to cardiac and cerebral events and therefore is the leading risk factor attributed to death in the world. Oxylipins may be mediators in these events as they can regulate vascular tone and inflammation. Oxylipins are derived from fatty acids. Dietary flaxseed is rich in the n3 fatty acid, alpha-linolenic acid, and, therefore, may have the ability to change the substrate profile of oxylipins. As a result, this could alter blood pressure. Methods: A randomized, double-blinded, controlled clinical trial, the Flax-PAD trial, was used to assess the impact of dietary flaxseed on blood pressure (BP), and to also assess the relationship of plasma oxylipins to BP in 81 patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Patients with PAD were chosen for the clinical trial as they are at an increased risk for hypertension and cardiac and cerebral events. Thirty grams of ground flaxseed were added to food products to consume on a daily basis for 6 months. The control food products contained wheat germ, wheat bran, and mixed dietary oils instead of flaxseed. Central BP, which is more significantly associated to organ damage, cardiac, and cerebral events versus brachial BP, was measured by pulse wave analysis at baseline and 6 months. A plasma profile of 43 oxylipins was generated using solid phase extraction, HPLC-MS/MS, and stable isotope dilution quantitation. Results: At baseline, the central BP (systolic/diastolic) in the placebo and flaxseed group were, 131/73 ± 2.5/1.4 mmHg and 128/71 ± 2.6/1.4 mmHg, respectively. After 6 months of intervention, the flaxseed group exhibited a decrease in blood pressure of 4.0/1.0 mmHg. The 6 month central BP in the placebo and flaxseed groups were, 132/74 ± 2.9/1.8 mmHg and 124/70 ± 2.6/1.6 mmHg (P<0.05). Correlation and logistic regression analyses between central blood pressure and oxylipins were performed. Significant associations were observed between central blood pressure and 17 oxylipins, primarily produced from arachidonic acid. Every 1 nM increase in 16-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (HETE) increased the odds of having high central systolic BP by 15-fold, of having high central diastolic BP by 6-fold and of having high central mean arterial pressure by 15-fold. In addition, every 1 nM increase in 5,6-dihydroxyeicosatrienoic acid (DHET) and 11,12-DHET increased the odds of having high central mean arterial pressure by 45- and 18-fold, respectively. Flaxseed induced a significant decrease in these as well as 4 other vasoconstrictive oxylipins. Conclusion: Dietary flaxseed significantly lowered blood pressure in patients with PAD and hypertension. Plasma oxylipins were strongly associated with central blood pressure and may have mediated the flaxseed-induced decrease in blood pressure.

Keywords: hypertension, flaxseed, oxylipins, peripheral arterial disease

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2071 Forensic Nursing in the Emergency Department: The Overlooked Roles

Authors: E. Tugba Topcu

Abstract:

The emergency services are usually the first places to encounter forensic cases. Hence, it is important to consider forensics from the perspective of the emergency services staff and the physiological and psychological consequences that may arise as a result of behaviour by itself or another person. Accurate and detailed documentation of the situation in which the patient first arrives at the emergency service and preservation of the forensic findings is pivotal for the subsequent forensic investigation. The first step in determining whether or not a forensic case exists is to perform a medical examination of the patient. For each individual suspected to be part of a forensic case, police officers should be informed at the same time as the medical examination is being conducted. Violent events are increasing every year and with an increase in the number of forensic cases, emergency service workers have increasing responsibility and consequently play a key role in protecting, collecting and arranging the forensic evidence. In addition, because the emergency service workers involved in forensic events typically have information about the accused and/or victim, as well as evidence related to the events and the cause of injuries, police officers often require their testimony. However, both nurses and other health care personnel do not typically have adequate expertise in forensic medicine. Emergency nurses should take an active role for determining that whether any patient admitted to the emergency services is a clinical forensic patient the emergency service with injury and requiring possible punishment and knowing of their roles and responsibilities in this area provides legal protection as well as the protection of the judicial affair. Particularly, in emergency services, where rapid patient turnover and high workload exists, patient registration and case reporting may not exist. In such instances, the witnesses, typically the nurses, are often consulted for information. Knowledge of forensic medical matters plays a vital role in achieving justice. According to the Criminal Procedure Law, Article 75, Paragraph 3, ‘an internal body examination or the taking of blood or other biological samples from the body can be performed only by a doctor or other health professional member’. In favour of this item, the clinic nurse and doctor are mainly responsible for evaluating forensic cases in emergency departments, performing the examination, collecting evidence, and storing and reporting data. The courts place considerable importance on determining whether a suspect is the victim or accused and, thus, in terms of illuminating events, it is crucial that any evidence is gathered carefully and appropriately. All the evidence related to the forensic case including the forensic report should be handed over to the police officers. In instances where forensic evidence cannot be collected and the only way to obtain the evidence is the hospital environment, health care personnel in emergency services need to have knowledge about the diagnosis of forensic evidence, the collection of evidence, hiding evidence and provision of the evidence delivery chain.

Keywords: emergency department, emergency nursing, forensic cases, forensic nursing

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2070 Development and Validation of the Response to Stressful Situations Scale in the General Population

Authors: Célia Barreto Carvalho, Carolina da Motta, Marina Sousa, Joana Cabral, Ana Luísa Carvalho, Ermelindo Peixoto

Abstract:

The aim of the current study was to develop and validate a Response to Stressful Situations Scale (RSSS) for the Portuguese population. This scale assesses the degree of stress experienced in scenarios that can constitute positive, negative and more neutral stressors, and also describes the physiological, emotional and behavioral reactions to those events according to their intensity. These scenario include typical stressor scenarios relevant to patients with schizophrenia, which are currently absent from most scale, assessing specific risks that these stressors may bring on subjects, which may prove useful in non-clinical and clinical populations (i.e. patients with mood or anxiety disorders, schizophrenia). Results from Principal Components Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis of on two adult samples from general population allowed to confirm a three-factor model with good fit indices: χ2 (144)= 370.211, p = 0.000; GFI = 0.928; CFI = 0.927; TLI = 0.914, RMSEA = 0.055, P( rmsea ≤ 0.005) = 0.096; PCFI = 0.781. Further data analysis on the scale revealed that RSSS is an adequate assessment tool of stress response in adults to be used in further research and clinical settings, with good psychometric characteristics, adequate divergent and convergent validity, good temporal stability and high internal consistency.

Keywords: assessment, stress events, stress response, stress vulnerability

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2069 Runoff Estimates of Rapidly Urbanizing Indian Cities: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Authors: Rupesh S. Gundewar, Kanchan C. Khare

Abstract:

Runoff contribution from urban areas is generally from manmade structures and few natural contributors. The manmade structures are buildings; roads and other paved areas whereas natural contributors are groundwater and overland flows etc. Runoff alleviation is done by manmade as well as natural storages. Manmade storages are storage tanks or other storage structures such as soakways or soak pits which are more common in western and European countries. Natural storages are catchment slope, infiltration, catchment length, channel rerouting, drainage density, depression storage etc. A literature survey on the manmade and natural storages/inflow has presented percentage contribution of each individually. Sanders et.al. in their research have reported that a vegetation canopy reduces runoff by 7% to 12%. Nassif et el in their research have reported that catchment slope has an impact of 16% on bare standard soil and 24% on grassed soil on rainfall runoff. Infiltration being a pervious/impervious ratio dependent parameter is catchment specific. But a literature survey has presented a range of 15% to 30% loss of rainfall runoff in various catchment study areas. Catchment length and channel rerouting too play a considerable role in reduction of rainfall runoff. Ground infiltration inflow adds to the runoff where the groundwater table is very shallow and soil saturates even in a lower intensity storm. An approximate percent contribution through this inflow and surface inflow contributes to about 2% of total runoff volume. Considering the various contributing factors in runoff it has been observed during a literature survey that integrated modelling approach needs to be considered. The traditional storm water network models are able to predict to a fair/acceptable degree of accuracy provided no interaction with receiving water (river, sea, canal etc), ground infiltration, treatment works etc. are assumed. When such interactions are significant then it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extent using the traditional discrete modelling approach. As a result the correct flooding situation is very rarely addressed accurately. Since the development of spatially distributed hydrologic model the predictions have become more accurate at the cost of requiring more accurate spatial information.The integrated approach provides a greater understanding of performance of the entire catchment. It enables to identify the source of flow in the system, understand how it is conveyed and also its impact on the receiving body. It also confirms important pain points, hydraulic controls and the source of flooding which could not be easily understood with discrete modelling approach. This also enables the decision makers to identify solutions which can be spread throughout the catchment rather than being concentrated at single point where the problem exists. Thus it can be concluded from the literature survey that the representation of urban details can be a key differentiator to the successful understanding of flooding issue. The intent of this study is to accurately predict the runoff from impermeable areas from urban area in India. A representative area has been selected for which data was available and predictions have been made which are corroborated with the actual measured data.

Keywords: runoff, urbanization, impermeable response, flooding

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2068 Social Media Creating Communication Gap among Individuals

Authors: Muneeza Anwar, Muniba Raza, Zunahs Khalid

Abstract:

The study discusses the communication gap that has been created due to excessive use of social networking websites such as Facebook, WhatsApp, Viber etc. In this growing world of technology and awareness among people about social media it has also increased its usage. The objective of this study is to measure the ways the internet is affecting the communications among individuals through social media and to check whether this is affecting the society in a positive manner. The study signifies the theoretical and practical aspects of communication gaps among the individuals through social media. The study is conducted to check whether social networking websites are the main causes of creating communication gap among individuals. In this world of fast growing technology every day, there is a new invention, affecting the lives of people both directly and indirectly. Moreover with the usage of technology people keep updating about themselves, about different events happening around their surrounding by creating events, uploading pictures, checking in different place, and creating awareness among people who are not aware of people about what is happening. From the study, we deduced how social media is affecting individual’s life. The findings suggest that social media is although creating communication gaps among people but is also bridging them. Showing that social media is one of the causes that is creating communication gap among the individuals. Communication gap has although increased on a daily basis but on average it has remained the same as they are communicating on social networking websites but eventually decreasing the communication on personal grounds.

Keywords: communication gaps, usage of social networking websites, interaction with friends and family, social media

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2067 Creative Peace Diplomacy Model by the Perspective of Dialogue Management for International Relations

Authors: Bilgehan Gültekin, Tuba Gültekin

Abstract:

Peace diplomacy is the most important international tool to keep peace all over the world. The study titled “peace diplomacy for international relations” is consist of three part. In the first part, peace diplomacy is going to be introduced as a tool of peace communication and peace management. And, in this part, peace communication will be explained by international communication perspective. In the second part of the study,public relations events and communication campaigns will be developed originally for peace diplomacy. In this part, it is aimed original public communication dialogue management tools for peace diplomacy. the aim of the final part of the study, is to produce original public communication model for international relations. The model includes peace modules, peace management projects, original dialogue procedures and protocols, dialogue education, dialogue management strategies, peace actors, communication models, peace team management and public diplomacy steps. The creative part of the study aims to develop a model used for international relations for all countries. Creative Peace Diplomacy Model will be developed in the case of Turkey-Turkey-France and Turkey-Greece relations. So, communication and public relations events and campaigns are going to be developed as original for only this study.

Keywords: peace diplomacy, public communication model, dialogue management, international relations

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2066 Armed Groups and Intra State Conflict: A Study on the Egyptian Case

Authors: Ghzlan Mahmoud Abdel Aziz

Abstract:

This case study aims to identify the intrastate conflicts between the nation state and armed groups. Nowadays, most wars weaken states against armed groups. Thus, it is very important to negotiate with such groups in order to reinforce the law for the protection of victims. These armed groups are the cause of conflicts and they are related with many of humanitarian issues that result out of conflicts. In this age of rivalry; terrorists, insurgents, or transnational criminal parties have surfaced to the top as a reaction to these armed groups in an effort to set up a new world order. Moreover, the intra state conflicts became increasingly treacherous than the interstate conflicts, particularly when nation state systems deal with armed groups which try to influence the state. The unexpected upraising of the Arab Spring during 2011 in parts of the Middle East and North Africa formed various patterns of conflicts. The events of the Arab Spring resulted in current and long term change across the region. Significant modifications in the level, strength and period of armed conflict around the world have been made. Egypt was in the center of these events. It has fought back the armed groups under the name of terrorism and spread common disorder and violence among civilians. On this note, this study focuses on the problem of the transformation in the methods of organized violence within one state rather than between two state or more and analyzes the objectives, strategies, and internal composition of armed groups and the environments that foster them, with a focus on the Egyptian case.

Keywords: armed groups, conflicts, Egyptian armed forces, intrastate conflicts

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2065 Understanding the Cultural Landscape of Kuttanad: Life within the Constraints of Nature

Authors: K. Nikilsha, Lakshmi Manohar, Debayan Chatterjee

Abstract:

Landscape is a setting that informs the way of life of a set of people, and the repository of intangible values and human meanings that nurture our very existence. Along with the linkage that it forms with our lives, it can be argued that landscape and memory cannot be separated, as landscape is the nucleus of our memories. In this context, this paper studies landscape evolution of a region with unique geographic setting, where the dependency of the inhabitants on its resources, led to the formation of certain peculiar beliefs and taboos that formed the basis of a set of unwritten rules and guidelines which they still follow as a part of their lifestyle. One such example is Kuttanad, a low lying region in Kerala which is a complex mosaic of fragmented agricultural landscape incorporating coastal backwaters, rivers, marshes, paddy fields and water channels. The more the physical involvement with the resources, the more was the inhabitants attachment towards it. This attachment of the inhabitants to the place is very strong because the creation of this land was the result of the toil of the low caste labourers who strived day and night to create Kuttanad, which was reclaimed from water with the help of the finance supplied by their landlords. However, the greatest challenge faced by them is posed by the forces of water in the form of floods. As this land is fed by five rivers, even the slight variation in rainfall in its watershed area can cause a large imbalance in the water level causing the reclaimed land to be inundated. The effects of climate change including increase in rainfall, rise in sea level and change of seasons can act as a catalyst to this damage. Hasty urbanization has led to the conversion of paddy fields to housing plots and coconut/plantain fields giving no regard to the traditional systems which had once respected nature and combated floods and draughts through the various cultural practices and taboos practiced by the people. Thus it is essential to look back at the landscape evolution of Kuttanad and to recognise methods used traditionally in the region to establish a cultural landscape, and to understand how climate change and urbanisation shall pose a challenge to the existing landscape and lifestyle. This research also explores the possibilities of alternative and sustainable approaches for resilient urban development learned from Kuttanad as a case study.

Keywords: ecological conservation, landscape and ecological engineering, landscape evolution, man-made landscapes

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2064 Antiplatelet Activity of Nitrated Fatty Acids from Tomato Pomace

Authors: Lyanne Rodriguez, Eduardo Fuente, Andrés Trostchansky, Ivan Palomo

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in the world. The development of platelet-rich thrombi has been considered a trigger for acute cardiovascular events. A healthy diet, rich in fruit and vegetables, has been related to increased protection against cardiovascular events. Previous studies have observed that tomato pomace has a potent antiplatelet activity, due could be attributed to its high content of fatty acids (> 30%). It has been shown that unsaturated fatty acids can undergo endogenous intracellular nitration reactions during digestion after lipid consumption. Additionally, nitrated fatty acids (NO2-FA) can significantly reduce atherosclerotic lesion formation, inhibiting the expression of adhesion molecules on dysfunctional endothelium and platelet activation. In this work, we have proposed the nitration of fatty acids present in tomato pomace to improve its antiplatelet action. The gastric digestion of the tomato pomace allowed the nitration of the fatty acids, while by HPLC/MS/MS we were able to identify and quantify the nitrated fatty acids. The nitrated tomase extracts showed antiplatelet potential when platelets were stimulated with TRAP-6 and collagen. This activity was related to the presence of nitrated linoleic acid, which inhibited platelet activation by flow cytometry. The knowledge about the antiplatelet activity of nitrated fatty acids from tomato pomace will further develop new and more effective agents.

Keywords: cardiovascular, tomato extracts, nitrated fatty acids, antiplatelet activity

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2063 Contentious Politics during a Period of Transition to Democracy from an Authoritarian Regime: The Spanish Cycle of Protest of November 1975-December 1978

Authors: Juan Sanmartín Bastida

Abstract:

When a country experiences a period of transition from authoritarianism to democracy, involving an earlier process of political liberalization and a later process of democratization, a cycle of protest usually outbreaks, as there is a reciprocal influence between that kind of political change and the frequency and scale of social protest events. That is what happened in Spain during the first years of its transition to democracy from the Francoist authoritarian regime, roughly between November 1975 and December 1978. Thus, the object of this study is to show and explain how that cycle of protest started, developed, and finished in relation to such a political change, and offer specific information about the main features of all protest cycles: the social movements that arose during that period, the number of protest events by month, the forms of collective action that were utilized, the groups of challengers that engaged in contentious politics, the reaction of the authorities to the action and claims of those groups, etc. The study of this cycle of protest, using the primary sources and analytical tools that characterize the model of research of protest cycles, will make a contribution to the field of contentious politics and its phenomenon of cycles of contention, and more broadly to the political and social history of contemporary Spain. The cycle of protest and the process of political liberalization of the authoritarian regime began around the same time, but the first concluded long before the process of democratization was completed in 1982. The ascending phase of the cycle and therefore the process of liberalization started with the death of Francisco Franco and the proclamation of Juan Carlos I as King of Spain in November 1975; the peak of the cycle was around the first months of 1977; the descending phase started after the first general election of June 1977; and the level of protest stabilized in the last months of 1978, a year that finished with a referendum in which the Spanish people approved the current democratic constitution. It was then when we can consider that the cycle of protest came to an end. The primary sources are the news of protest events and social movements in the three main Spanish newspapers at the time, other written or audiovisual documents, and in-depth interviews; and the analytical tools are the political opportunities that encourage social protest, the available repertoire of contention, the organizations and networks that brought together people with the same claims and allowed them to engage in contentious politics, and the interpretative frames that justify, dignify and motivates their collective action. These are the main four factors that explain the beginning, development and ending of the cycle of protest, and therefore the accompanying social movements and events of collective action. Among those four factors, the political opportunities -their opening, exploitation, and closure-proved to be most decisive.

Keywords: contentious politics, cycles of protest, political opportunities, social movements, Spanish transition to democracy

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2062 Predicting Mass-School-Shootings: Relevance of the FBI’s ‘Threat Assessment Perspective’ Two Decades Later

Authors: Frazer G. Thompson

Abstract:

The 1990s in America ended with a mass-school-shooting (at least four killed by gunfire excluding the perpetrator(s)) at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado. Post-event, many demanded that government and civilian experts develop a ‘profile’ of the potential school shooter in order to identify and preempt likely future acts of violence. This grounded theory research study seeks to explore the validity of the original hypotheses proposed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in 2000, as it relates to the commonality of disclosure by perpetrators of mass-school-shootings, by evaluating fourteen mass-school-shooting events between 2000 and 2019 at locations around the United States. Methods: The strategy of inquiry seeks to investigate case files, public records, witness accounts, and available psychological profiles of the shooter. The research methodology is inclusive of one-on-one interviews with members of the FBI’s Critical Incident Response Group seeking perspective on commonalities between individuals; specifically, disclosure of intent pre-event. Results: The research determined that school shooters do not ‘unfailingly’ notify others of their plans. However, in nine of the fourteen mass-school-shooting events analyzed, the perpetrator did inform the third party of their intent pre-event in some form of written, oral, or electronic communication. In the remaining five instances, the so-called ‘red-flag’ indicators of the potential for an event to occur were profound, and unto themselves, might be interpreted as notification to others of an imminent deadly threat. Conclusion: Data indicates that conclusions drawn in the FBI’s threat assessment perspective published in 2000 are relevant and current. There is evidence that despite potential ‘red-flag’ indicators which may or may not include a variety of other characteristics, perpetrators of mass-school-shooting events are likely to share their intentions with others through some form of direct or indirect communication. More significantly, implications of this research might suggest that society is often informed of potential danger pre-event but lacks any equitable means by which to disseminate, prevent, intervene, or otherwise act in a meaningful way considering said revelation.

Keywords: columbine, FBI profiling, guns, mass shooting, mental health, school violence

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2061 Extreme Value Modelling of Ghana Stock Exchange Indices

Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

Abstract:

Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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2060 Object Negotiation Mechanism for an Intelligent Environment Using Event Agents

Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

With advancements in science and technology, the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) has gradually developed. The development of the intelligent environment adds intelligence to objects in the living space by using the IoT. In the smart environment, when multiple users share the living space, if different service requirements from different users arise, then the context-aware system will have conflicting situations for making decisions about providing services. Therefore, the purpose of establishing a communication and negotiation mechanism among objects in the intelligent environment is to resolve those service conflicts among users. This study proposes developing a decision-making methodology that uses “Event Agents” as its core. When the sensor system receives information, it evaluates a user’s current events and conditions; analyses object, location, time, and environmental information; calculates the priority of the object; and provides the user services based on the event. Moreover, when the event is not single but overlaps with another, conflicts arise. This study adopts the “Multiple Events Correlation Matrix” in order to calculate the degree values of incidents and support values for each object. The matrix uses these values as the basis for making inferences for system service, and to further determine appropriate services when there is a conflict.

Keywords: internet of things, intelligent object, event agents, negotiation mechanism, degree of similarity

Procedia PDF Downloads 289