Search results for: interest rate risk

Authors: Jeongwoo Lee

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Children are the most vulnerable travelers and they are at risk for pedestrian injury. Creating a safe route to school is important because walking to school is one of the main opportunities for promotion of needed physical exercise among children. This study examined how the built environmental attributes near an elementary school influence traffic accidents among school-aged children. The study used two complementary data sources including the locations of police-reported pedestrian crashes and the built environmental characteristics of school areas. The environmental attributes of road segments were collected through GIS measurements of local data and actual site audits using the inventory developed for measuring pedestrian-crash risk scores. The inventory data collected at 840 road segments near 32 elementary schools in the city of Ulsan. We observed all segments in a 300-meter-radius area from the entrance of an elementary school. Segments are street block faces. The inventory included 50 items, organized into four domains: accessibility (17items), pleasurability (11items), perceived safety from traffic (9items), and traffic and land-use measures (13items). Elementary schools were categorized into two groups based on the distribution of the pedestrian-crash hazard index scores. A high pedestrian-crash zone was defined as an school area within the eighth, ninth, and tenth deciles, while no pedestrian-crash zone was defined as a school zone with no pedestrian-crash accident among school-aged children between 2013 and 2016. No- and high pedestrian-crash zones were compared to determine whether different settings of the built environment near the school lead to a different rate of pedestrian-crash incidents. The results showed that a crash risk can be influenced by several environmental factors such as a shape of school-route, number of intersections, visibility and land-use in a street, and a type of sidewalk. The findings inform policy for creating safe routes to school to reduce the pedestrian-crash risk among children by focusing on school zones.

Keywords: active school travel, school zone, pedestrian crash, safety route to school

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Stephanie A. Schauder, Gosia Sylwestrzak

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Overweight and obese women report avoiding preventive care due to fear of weight-related bias from medical professionals. Gynecological exams, due to their sensitive and personally invasive nature, are especially susceptible to avoidance. This research investigates the association between body mass index (BMI) and screening rates for breast and cervical cancer using claims data from 1.3 million members of a large health insurance company. Because obesity is associated with increased cancer risk, screenings for these cancers should increase as BMI increases. However, this paper finds that the distribution of cancer screening rates by BMI take an inverted U-shape with underweight and obese members having the lowest screening rates. For cervical cancer screening, those in the target population with a BMI of 23 have the highest screening rate at 68%, while Obese Class III members have a screening rate of 50%. Those in the underweight category have a screening rate of 58%. This relationship persists even after controlling for health and demographic covariates in regression analysis. Interestingly, there is no association between BMI and BRCA (BReast CAncer gene) genetic testing. This is consistent with the narrative that stigma causes avoidance because genetic testing does not involve any assessment of a person’s body. More work must be done to determine how to increase cancer screening rates in those who may feel stigmatized due to their weight.

Keywords: cancer screening, cervical cancer, breast cancer, weight stigma, avoidance of care

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Authors: Manjunatha Bangeppagari, Lee Sang Joon

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Recently, graphene-related nanomaterials are receiving fast-increasing attention with augmented applications in various fields. Especially, graphene-related materials have been widely applied to the biomedical field in the past years. In the present study, we evaluated the adverse effects of pristine graphene (pG) in zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos in various aspects, such as mortality rate, heart rate, hatching rate, cardiotoxicity, cardiovascular defect, cardiac looping, apoptosis, and globin expression. For various trace concentrations of pG (1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 μg/L), early life-stage parameters were observed at 24, 48, 72, and 96 hpf. As a result, pG induces significant developmental defects including yolk sac edema, pericardial edema, embryonic mortality, delayed hatching, heartbeat, several morphological defects, pericardial toxicity, and bradycardia. Moreover, the exposure to pG was found to be a potential risk factor to the cardiovascular system of zebrafish embryos. However, further study on their properties which vary according to production methods and surface functionalization is essentially required. In addition, the possible risks of pG flakes to aquatic animals, and public health should be evaluated before releasing them to the surrounding environment.

Keywords: apoptosis, cardiovascular toxicity, globin expression, pristine graphene, zebrafish embryos

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Ali Ashraf Hamedi Oghul Beyk

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The main objective of the study is to determine the factors which influence the acceptance or rejection of rural livestock insurance in Garmsar. The research method is descriptive one. There are two groups of research populations: 1467 cases in acceptance group and 7000 cases in rejection group. The sample population is 320 cases among 8467 ones. Data collection instrument is questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was measured by faculty members and other agriculture experts and also reliability of it determined through Cronbach alpha which was %83. Correlation between acceptance and rejection of investigated population. According to the findings of the research, between educational level, basic income from farm-related communication channels, contacts of experts and acceptance and rejection of livestock insurance at %5 & the mortality rate, loan awareness of the objectives of the livestock insurance benefits %1 there is a meaningful relationship. Mann-Whitney test shows the different educational levels, different awareness and interest to livestock insurance between the two groups. Besides, the T-test shows the livestock losses rate in two groups.

Keywords: insurance, livestock, Garmsar, Semnan

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Authors: Mohd Asrul Affendi Bi Abdullah, Nyi Nyi Naing

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The purpose of this study was to identify comparable manner between negative binomial death rate (NBDR) and zero inflated negative binomial death rate (ZINBDR) with died patients with (HIV + T B+) and (HIV + T B−). HIV and TB is a serious world wide problem in the developing country. Data were analyzed with applying NBDR and ZINBDR to make comparison which a favorable model is better to used. The ZINBDR model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NBDR model. Hence, as a results ZINBDR model is a superior fit to the data than the NBDR model and provides additional information regarding the died mechanisms HIV+TB. The ZINBDR model is shown to be a use tool for analysis death rate according age categorical.

Keywords: zero inflated negative binomial death rate, HIV and TB, AIC and BIC, death rate

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Shuqi Zhang

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Federated learning allows users to participate in collaborative model training without sending data to third-party servers, reducing the risk of user data privacy leakage, and is widely used in smart finance and smart healthcare. However, the distributed architecture design of federation learning itself and the existence of secure aggregation protocols make it inherently vulnerable to backdoor attacks. To solve this problem, the federated learning backdoor defense framework FLEX based on group aggregation, cluster analysis, and neuron pruning is proposed, and inter-compatibility with secure aggregation protocols is achieved. The good performance of FLEX is verified by building a horizontal federated learning framework on the CIFAR-10 dataset for experiments, which achieves 98% success rate of backdoor detection and reduces the success rate of backdoor tasks to 0% ~ 10%.

Keywords: federated learning, secure aggregation, backdoor attack, cluster analysis, neuron pruning

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Wang Xue, Fan Liwei

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The trust and use of social network platforms by users are instrumental factors that contribute to the platform’s sustainable development. Studying the influential factors of the use of social network platforms is beneficial for developing and maintaining a large user base. This study constructed an extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) moderating model with perceived privacy risks to analyze the factors affecting the trust and use of social network platforms. 444 participants completed our 35 surveys, and we verified the survey results by structural equation model. Empirical results reveal the influencing factors that affect the trust and use of social network platforms, and the extended UTAUT2 model with perceived privacy risks increases the applicability of UTAUT2 in social network scenarios. Social networking platforms can increase their use rate by increasing the economics, functionality, entertainment, and privacy security of the platform.

Keywords: perceived privacy risk, social network, trust, use, UTAUT2 model

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Authors: Sheraz Ahmad Choudhary

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Health plays a vital role in the growth. The study examined the effect of health indicator on the growth of Pakistan. ARDL model is used to check the growth rate which is affected by the health by using the time series date of Pakistan from 1990 to 2017. Health indicator, fertility rate, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate are variables Where the unit root is applied to check the stationarity of the model. consequences find a significant relationship between GDP, foreign direct investment, fertility rate, and life expectancy in the short run, whereas mortality rate effected negatively to economic growth but have significant values. In the long run, foreign direct investment (FDI) and fertility rate(FR) have significantly influenced the GDP. The results show thateconomic growth is positively stimulated by most of the health indicators. The study accomplishes that nations can achieve a high level of economic growth by increasing wellbeing human capital.

Keywords: economic growth, health expenditures, fertility rate, human capital, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: V. E. Bazhenov, A. V. Li, A. A. Komissarov, A. V. Koltygin, S. A. Tavolzhanskii, O. O. Voropaeva, A. M. Mukhametshina, A. A. Tokar, V. A. Bautin

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Magnesium-based alloys are considered as effective materials in the development of biodegradable implants. The magnesium alloys containing Mg, Zn, Ca as an alloying element are the subject of the particular interest. These elements are the nutrients for the human body, which provide their high biocompatibility. In this work, we investigated the effect of severe plastic deformation (SPD) on the mechanical and corrosion properties of Mg-Zn-Ca and Mg-Zn-Ca-Mn alloys containing from 2 to 4 wt.% Zn; 0.7 wt.% Ca and up to 1 wt.% Mn. Hot extrusion was used as a method of intensive plastic deformation. The temperature of hot extrusion was set to 220 °C and 300 °C. Metallographic analysis after hot extrusion shows that the grain size in the studied alloys depends on the deformation temperature. The grain size for all of investigated alloys is in the range from 3 to 7 microns, and 3 μm corresponds to the extrusion temperature of 220 °C. Analysis of mechanical properties after extrusion shows that extrusion at a temperature of 220 °C and alloying with Mn increase the strength characteristics and decrease the ductility of studied alloys. A slight anisotropy of properties in the longitudinal and transverse directions was also observed. Measurements of corrosion properties revealed that the addition of Mn to Mg-Zn-Ca alloys reduces the corrosion rate. On the other hand, increasing the Zn content in alloys increases the corrosion rate. The extrusion temperature practically does not affect the corrosion rate. Acknowledgement: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation in the framework of Increase Competitiveness Program of NUST «MISiS» (No K2-2019-008), implemented by a governmental decree dated 16th of March 2013, N 211.

Keywords: biocompatibility, hot extrusion, magnesium alloys, severe plastic deformation, properties

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Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Aweke A. Mitiku, Endashaw Amuka

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Background: Under-five mortality is the likelihood that a baby will pass away before turning exactly 5 years old, represented as a percentage per 1,000 live births. Exploring the spatial distribution and identifying the temporal pattern is important to reducing under-five child mortality globally, including in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality and the spatiotemporal variation in Ethiopian administrative zones. Method: This study used the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data, which were collected using a two-stage sampling method. A total of 43,029 (10,873 in 2000, 9,861 in 2005, 11,654 in 2011, and 10,641 in 2016) weighted sample under-five child mortality was used. The space-time dynamic model was employed to account for spatial and time effects in 65 administrative zones in Ethiopia. Results: From the result of a general nesting spatial-temporal dynamic model, there was a significant space-time interaction effect [γ = -0.1444, 95 % CI (-0.6680, -0.1355)] for under-five mortality. The increase in the percentages of mothers illiteracy [𝛽 = 0.4501, 95% CI (0.2442, 0.6559)], not vaccinated[𝛽= 0.7681, 95% CI (0.5683, 0.9678)], unimproved water[𝛽= 0.5801, CI (0.3793, 0.7808)] were increased death rates for under five children while increased percentage of contraceptive use [𝛽= -0.6609, 95% CI (-0.8636, -0.4582)] and ANC visit > 4 times [𝛽= -0.1585, 95% CI(-0.1812, -0.1357)] were contributed to the decreased under-five mortality rate at the zone in Ethiopia. Conclusions: Even though the mortality rate for children under five has decreased over time, still there is still higher in different zones of Ethiopia. There exists spatial and temporal variation in under-five mortality among zones. Therefore, it is very important to consider spatial neighbourhoods and temporal context when aiming to avoid under-five mortality.

Keywords: under-five children mortality, space-time dynamic, spatiotemporal, Ethiopia

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Fayaz Moosavi, Saeid Moradyfard

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One of the methods in avoiding management fraud and increasing the quality of financial information, is the notification of qualitative features of financial information, including conservatism characteristic. Although taking a conservatism approach, while boosting the quality of financial information, is able to reduce the informational risk and the cost of capital stock of commercial department, by presenting an improper image about the situation of the commercial department, raises the risk of failure in returning the main and capital interest, and consequently the cost of capital of the commercial department. In order to know if conservatism finally leads to the increase or decrease of the cost of capital or does not have any influence on it, information regarding accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange is utilized by application of pooling method from 2007 to 2012 and it included 124 companies. The results of the study revealed that there is an opposite and meaningful relationship between conditional conservatism and the cost of capital of the company. In other words, if bad and unsuitable news and signs are reflected sooner than good news in accounting profit, the cost of capital of the company increases. In addition, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the cost of capital and lack of information asymmetry.

Keywords: conditional conservatism, lack of information asymmetry, the cost of capital, stock exchange

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Omolade Adeleke, Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti

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This study empirically examined the monetary policy and economic growth in the classical cycles in 8 member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), using the Markov switching model for the Two-phase Regime, covering the period 1980Q1 to 2020Q4. Our estimates suggest that these countries demonstrate to have similar business cycles, and the economies stay more in an expansion regime than a recession regime. The result further shows that the union has an average duration period of 3.1 and 15.9 quarters for contraction and expansion periods, respectively. The business cycle duration, on average, suggests 19 quarters, varying from country to country. Therefore, the formulation of policies that can enhance aggregate demand by member countries in the union is an antidote for recession and is necessary to drive the economy into equilibrium. Also, a low-interest rate and reduced inflation rate would ginger long-run economic growth.

Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, economic growth, Markov switching

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Authors: Yuchao Yao

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As two of the main characteristics of Chinese demographic trends, increasing divorce rates and decreasing fertility rates both shaped the population structure in the recent decade. Figuring out to what extent can be having a child make a difference in the divorce rate of a couple will not only draw a picture of Chinese families but also bring about a new perspective to evaluate the Chinese child-breeding policies. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) Data 2010-2018, this paper provides a systematic evaluation of how children influence a couple’s marital stability through a series of empirical models. Using survival analysis and propensity score matching (PSM) model, this paper finds that the number and age of children that a couple has mattered in consolidating marital relationship, and these effects vary little over time; during the last decade, newly having children can in fact decrease the possibility of divorce for Chinese couples; the such decreasing effect is largely due to the birth of a second child. As this is an inclusive attempt to study and compare not only the effects but also the causality of children on divorce risk in the last decade, the results of this research will do a good summary of the status quo of divorce in China. Furthermore, this paper provides implications for further reforming the current marriage and child-breeding policies.

Keywords: divorce risk, fertility, China, survival analysis, propensity score matching

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Damien Gondre, Hatem Ben Maad, Abdelkrim Trabelsi, Frédéric Kuznik, Joseph Virgone

Abstract:

The use of a radiant cooling solution would enable to lower cooling needs which is of great interest when the demand is initially high (hot climate). But, radiant systems are not naturally compatibles with humid climates since a low-temperature surface leads to condensation risks as soon as the surface temperature is close to or lower than the dew point temperature. A radiant cooling system combined to a dehumidification system would enable to remove humidity for the space, thereby lowering the dew point temperature. The humidity removal needs to be especially effective near the cooled surface. This requirement could be fulfilled by a system using a single desiccant fluid for the removal of both excessive heat and moisture. This task aims at providing an estimation of the specification requirements of such system in terms of cooling power and dehumidification rate required to fulfill comfort issues and to prevent any condensation risk on the cool panel surface. The present paper develops a preliminary study on the specification requirements, performances and behavior of a combined dehumidifier/cooling ceiling panel for different operating conditions. This study has been carried using the TRNSYS software which allows nodal calculations of thermal systems. It consists of the dynamic modeling of heat and vapor balances of a 5m x 3m x 2.7m office space. In a first design estimation, this room is equipped with an ideal heating, cooling, humidification and dehumidification system so that the room temperature is always maintained in between 21^◦C and 25^◦C with a relative humidity in between 40% and 60%. The room is also equipped with a ventilation system that includes a heat recovery heat exchanger and another heat exchanger connected to a heat sink. Main results show that the system should be designed to meet a cooling power of 42W.m⁻² and a desiccant rate of 45 g_H2O.h⁻¹. In a second time, a parametric study of comfort issues and system performances has been achieved on a more realistic system (that includes a chilled ceiling) under different operating conditions. It enables an estimation of an acceptable range of operating conditions. This preliminary study is intended to provide useful information for the system design.

Keywords: dehumidification, nodal calculation, radiant cooling panel, system sizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Insaf Bellamine, Hamid Tairi

Abstract:

Detecting moving objects in sequences is an essential step for video analysis. This paper mainly contributes to the Color Space-Time Interest Points (CSTIP) extraction and detection. We propose a new method for detection of moving objects. Two main steps compose the proposed method. First, we suggest to apply the algorithm of the detection of Color Space-Time Interest Points (CSTIP) on both components of the Color Structure-Texture Image Decomposition which is based on a Partial Differential Equation (PDE): a color geometric structure component and a color texture component. A descriptor is associated to each of these points. In a second stage, we address the problem of grouping the points (CSTIP) into clusters. Experiments and comparison to other motion detection methods on challenging sequences show the performance of the proposed method and its utility for video analysis. Experimental results are obtained from very different types of videos, namely sport videos and animation movies.

Keywords: Color Space-Time Interest Points (CSTIP), Color Structure-Texture Image Decomposition, Motion Detection, clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: M. Radunovic

Abstract:

Region of Southeastern Europe has a substantial energy resource potential and is witnessing an increasing rate of power and energy project investments. This comes as a result of countries harmonizing their legal framework and market regulations to conform the ones of European Union, enabling direct private investments. Funding in the power and energy market in this region originates from various resources and investment entities, including commercial and institutional ones. Risk anticipation and assessment is crucial to project success, especially given the long exploitation period of project in power and energy domain, as well as the wide range of stakeholders involved. This paper analyzes the possibility of combined application of tools used in total quality management and international financing institutions for project planning, execution and evaluation, with the goal of anticipating, assessing and minimizing the risks that might occur in the development and execution phase of a power and energy project in the market of southeastern Europe. History of successful project management and investments both in the industry and institutional sector provides sufficient experience, guidance and internationally adopted tools to provide proper project assessment for investments in power and energy. Business environment of southeastern Europe provides immense potential for developing power and engineering projects of various magnitudes, depending on stakeholders’ interest. Diversification on investment sources provides assurance that there is interest and commitment to invest in this market. Global economic and political developments will be intensifying the pace of investments in the upcoming period. The proposed approach accounts for key parameters that contribute to the sustainability and profitability of a project which include technological, educational, social and economic gaps between the southeastern European region and western Europe, market trends in equipment design and production on a global level, environment friendly approach to renewable energy sources as well as conventional power generation systems, and finally the effect of the One Belt One Road Initiative led by People’s Republic of China to the power and energy market of this region in the upcoming period on a long term scale. Analysis will outline the key benefits of the approach as well as the accompanying constraints. Parallel to this it will provide an overview of dominant threats and opportunities in present and future business environment and their influence to the proposed application. Through concrete examples, full potential of this approach will be presented along with necessary improvements that need to be implemented. Number of power and engineering projects being developed in southeastern Europe will be increasing in the upcoming period. Proper risk analysis will lead to minimizing project failures. The proposed successful combination of reliable project planning tools from different investment areas can prove to be beneficial in the future power and engineering investments, and guarantee their sustainability and profitability.

Keywords: capital investments, lean six sigma, logical framework approach, logical framework matrix, one belt one road initiative, project management tools, quality function deployment, Southeastern Europe, total quality management

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

Abstract:

This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Sina Kazemi, Farshid Torabi, Todd Peterson

Abstract:

Drilling in shale formations is frequently time-consuming, challenging, and fraught with mechanical failures such as stuck pipes or hole packing off when the cutting removal rate is not sufficient to clean the bottom hole. Crossing the heavy oil shale and sand reservoirs with active shale and microfractures is generally associated with severe fluid losses causing a reduction in the rate of the cuttings removal. These circumstances compromise a well’s integrity and result in a lower rate of penetration (ROP). This study presents collective results of field studies and theoretical analysis conducted on data from South Pars and North Dome in an Iran-Qatar offshore field. Solutions to complications related to drilling in shale formations are proposed through systemically analyzing and applying modeling techniques to select field mud logging data. Field data measurements during actual drilling operations indicate that in a shale formation where the return flow of polymer mud was almost lost in the upper dolomite layer, the performance of hole cleaning and ROP progressively change when higher string rotations are initiated. Likewise, it was observed that this effect minimized the force of rotational torque and improved well integrity in the subsequent casing running. Given similar geologic conditions and drilling operations in reservoirs targeting shale as the producing zone like the Bakken formation within the Williston Basin and Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, a drill bench dynamic modeling simulation was used to simulate borehole cleaning efficiency and mud optimization. The results obtained by altering RPM (string revolution per minute) at the same pump rate and optimized mud properties exhibit a positive correlation with field measurements. The field investigation and developed model in this report show that increasing the speed of string revolution as far as geomechanics and drilling bit conditions permit can minimize the risk of mechanically stuck pipes while reaching a higher than expected ROP in shale formations. Data obtained from modeling and field data analysis, optimized drilling parameters, and hole cleaning procedures are suggested for minimizing the risk of a hole packing off and enhancing well integrity in shale reservoirs. Whereas optimization of ROP at a lower pump rate maintains the wellbore stability, it saves time for the operator while reducing carbon emissions and fatigue of mud motors and power supply engines.

Keywords: ROP, circulating density, drilling parameters, return flow, shale reservoir, well integrity

Procedia PDF Downloads 69