Search results for: gadd severity index
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2010

Search results for: gadd severity index

1440 Optimization of Surface Roughness in Additive Manufacturing Processes via Taguchi Methodology

Authors: Anjian Chen, Joseph C. Chen

Abstract:

This paper studies a case where the targeted surface roughness of fused deposition modeling (FDM) additive manufacturing process is improved. The process is designing to reduce or eliminate the defects and improve the process capability index Cp and Cpk for an FDM additive manufacturing process. The baseline Cp is 0.274 and Cpk is 0.654. This research utilizes the Taguchi methodology, to eliminate defects and improve the process. The Taguchi method is used to optimize the additive manufacturing process and printing parameters that affect the targeted surface roughness of FDM additive manufacturing. The Taguchi L9 orthogonal array is used to organize the parameters' (four controllable parameters and one non-controllable parameter) effectiveness on the FDM additive manufacturing process. The four controllable parameters are nozzle temperature [°C], layer thickness [mm], nozzle speed [mm/s], and extruder speed [%]. The non-controllable parameter is the environmental temperature [°C]. After the optimization of the parameters, a confirmation print was printed to prove that the results can reduce the amount of defects and improve the process capability index Cp from 0.274 to 1.605 and the Cpk from 0.654 to 1.233 for the FDM additive manufacturing process. The final results confirmed that the Taguchi methodology is sufficient to improve the surface roughness of FDM additive manufacturing process.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, fused deposition modeling, surface roughness, six-sigma, Taguchi method, 3D printing

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1439 Study of COVID-19 Intensity Correlated with Specific Biomarkers and Environmental Factors

Authors: Satendra Pal Singh, Dalip Kr. Kakru, Jyoti Mishra, Rajesh Thakur, Tarana Sarwat

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COVID-19 is still an intrigue as far as morbidity or mortality is concerned. The rate of recovery varies from person to person, & it depends upon the accessibility of the healthcare system and the roles played by the physicians and caregivers. It is envisaged that with the passage of time, people would become immune to this virus, and those who are vulnerable would sustain themselves with the help of vaccines. The proposed study deals with the severeness of COVID-19 is associated with some specific biomarkers linked to correlate age and gender. We will be assessing the overall homeostasis of the persons who were affected by the coronavirus infection and also of those who recovered from it. Some people show more severe effects, while others show very mild symptoms, however, they show low CT values. Thus far, it is unclear why the new strain of Covid has different effects on different people in terms of age, gender, and ABO blood typing. According to data, the fatality rate with heart disease was 10.5 percent, 7.3 percent were diabetic, and 6 percent who are already infected from other comorbidities. However, some COVID-19 cases are worse than others & it is not fully explainable as of date. Overall data show that the ABO blood group is effective or prone to the risk of SARS-COV2 infection, while another study also shows the phenotypic effects of the blood group related to covid. It is an accepted fact that females have more strong immune systems than males, which may be related to the fact that females have two ‘X’ chromosomes, which might contain a more effective immunity booster gene on the X chromosome, and are capable to protect the female. Also specific sex hormones also induce a better immune response in a specific gender. This calls for in-depth analysis to be able to gain insight into this dilemma. COVID-19 is still not fully characterized, and thus we are not very familiar with its biology, mode of infection, susceptibility, and overall viral load in the human body. How many virus particles are needed to infect a person? How, then, comorbidity contribute to coronavirus infection? Since the emergence of this virus in 2020, a large number of papers have been published, and seemingly, vaccines have been prepared. But still, a large number of questions remain unanswered. The proneness of humans for infection by covid-19 needs to be established to be able to develop a better strategy to fight this virus. Our study will be on the Impact of demography on the Severity of covid-19 infection & at the same time, will look into gender-specific sensitivity of Covid-19 and the Operational variation of different biochemical markers in Covid-19 positive patients. Besides, we will be studying the co-relation, if any, of COVID severity & ABO Blood group type and the occurrence of the most common blood group type amongst positive patience.

Keywords: coronavirus, ABO blood group, age, gender

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1438 Endothelial Progenitor Cell Biology in Ankylosing Spondylitis

Authors: Ashit Syngle, Inderjit Verma, Pawan Krishan

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Aim: Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are unique populations which have reparative potential in overcoming the endothelial damage and reducing cardiovascular risk. Patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the endothelial progenitor cell population in AS patients and its potential relationships with disease variables. Methods: Endothelial progenitor cells were measured in peripheral blood samples from 20 AS and 20 healthy controls by flow cytometry on the basis of CD34 and CD133 expression. Disease activity was evaluated by using Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI). Functional ability was monitored by using Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). Results: EPCs were depleted in AS patients as compared to the healthy controls (CD34+/CD133+: 0.027 ± 0.010 % vs. 0.044 ± 0.011 %, p<0.001). EPCs depletion were significantly associated with disease duration (r=-0.52, p=0.01) and BASDAI (r=-0.45, p=0.04). Conclusion: This is the first study to demonstrate endothelial progenitor cells depletion in AS patients. EPCs depletion inversely correlates with disease duration and disease activity, suggesting the pivotal role of inflammation in depletion of EPCs. EPC would possibly also serve as a therapeutic target for preventing cardiovascular disease in AS.

Keywords: ankylosing spondylitis, endothelial progenitor cells, inflammation, vascular damage

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1437 Assessment of Oral and Dental Health Status of Pregnant Women in Malaga, Spain

Authors: Nepton Kiani

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Dental decay is one of the most common chronic diseases worldwide and imposes significant costs annually on people and healthcare systems. Addressing this issue is among the important programs of the World Health Organization in the field of oral and dental disease prevention and health promotion. In this context, oral and dental health in vulnerable groups, especially pregnant women, is of greater importance due to the health maintenance of the mother and fetus. The aim of this study is to investigate the DMFT index and various factors affecting it in order to identify different factors influencing the process of dental decay and to take an effective step in reducing the progression of this disease, control, and prevention. In this cross-sectional descriptive study, 120 pregnant women attending Nepton Policlinica clinic in Malaga, Spain, were evaluated for the DMFT index and oral and dental hygiene. In this regard, interviews, precise observations, and data collection were used. Subsequently, data analysis was performed using SPSS software and employing correlation tests, Kruskal-Wallis, and Mann-Whitney tests. The DMFT index for pregnant women in three age groups 22-26, 27- 31, and 32-36 years was respectively 2.8, 4.5, and 5.6. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that demographic variables (age, education, job, economic status) and the frequency of brushing and flossing lead to preventive behavior up to 49.58 percent (P<0.05). Generally, the results indicated that oral and dental care during pregnancy is poor. Only a small number of pregnant women regularly used toothbrush and dental floss or visited the dentist regularly. On the other hand, poor performance in adopting oral and dental care was more observed in pregnant women with lower economic and educational status. The present study showed that raising the level of awareness and education on oral and dental health in pregnant women is essential. In this field, it is necessary to focus on conducting educational-care courses at the level of healthcare centers for midwives, healthcare personnel, and at the community level for families, to prevent and perform dental treatments before the pregnancy period

Keywords: Malaga, oral and dental health, pregnant women, Spain

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1436 A Geospatial Approach to Coastal Vulnerability Using Satellite Imagery and Coastal Vulnerability Index: A Case Study Mauritius

Authors: Manta Nowbuth, Marie Anais Kimberley Therese

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The vulnerability of coastal areas to storm surges stands as a critical global concern. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased the risks faced by communities living along the coastlines Worldwide. Small Island developing states (SIDS) stands out as being exceptionally vulnerable, coastal regions, ecosystems of human habitation and natural forces, bear witness to the frontlines of climate-induced challenges, and the intensification of storm surges underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of coastal vulnerability. With limited landmass, low-lying terrains, and resilience on coastal resources, SIDS face an amplified vulnerability to the consequences of storm surges, the delicate balance between human activities and environmental dynamics in these island nations increases the urgency of tailored strategies for assessing and mitigating coastal vulnerability. This research uses an approach to evaluate the vulnerability of coastal communities in Mauritius. The Satellite imagery analysis makes use of sentinel satellite imageries, modified normalised difference water index, classification techniques and the DSAS add on to quantify the extent of shoreline erosion or accumulation, providing a spatial perspective on coastal vulnerability. The coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is applied by Gonitz et al Formula, this index considers factors such as coastal slope, sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range. Weighted assessments identify regions with varying levels of vulnerability, ranging from low to high. The study was carried out in a Village Located in the south of Mauritius, namely Rivière des Galets, with a population of about 500 people over an area of 60,000m². The Village of Rivière des Galets being located in the south, and the southern coast of Mauritius being exposed to the open Indian ocean, is vulnerable to swells, The swells generated by the South east trade winds can lead to large waves and rough sea conditions along the Southern Coastline which has an impact on the coastal activities, including fishing, tourism and coastal Infrastructures, hence, On the one hand, the results highlighted that from a stretch of 123km of coastline the linear rate regression for the 5 –year span varies from-24.1m/yr. to 8.2m/yr., the maximum rate of change in terms of eroded land is -24m/yr. and the maximum rate of accretion is 8.2m/yr. On the other hand, the coastal vulnerability index varies from 9.1 to 45.6 and it was categorised into low, moderate, high and very high risks zones. It has been observed that region which lacks protective barriers and are made of sandy beaches are categorised as high risks zone and hence it is imperative to high risk regions for immediate attention and intervention, as they will most likely be exposed to coastal hazards and impacts from climate change, which demands proactive measures for enhanced resilience and sustainable adaptation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, coastal vulnerability, disaster management, remote sensing, satellite imagery, storm surge

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1435 The Effect of Surgical Intervention on Pediatric and Adolescent Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

Authors: Ching-Yi Yiu, Hui-Chen Hsu

Abstract:

Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a popular problem in the modern society. It usually leads to sleep disorder, excessive daytime sleepiness and associated with cardiovascular diseases, cognitive dysfunction and even death. The nonsurgical therapies include continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), diet and oral appliances. The surgical approaches have nasal surgery, tonsillectomy, adenoidectomy, uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UPPP) and transoral robotic surgery (TORS).We compare the impact of surgical treatments on these kinds of patients. Methods: Between January 2018 to September 2022, We have enrolled 125 OSAS patients including 82 male and 43 female in Chi Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Taiwan. The age distribution from 6 to 71 years old (y/o) with mean age 36.1 y/o. The averaged body mass index (BMI) is 25 kg/m2 in male and 25.5 kg/m2 in female. In this cohort, we evaluated their upper airway obstruction sites with nasopharyngoscopy and scheduled a planned surgery. Some of cases received polysomnography (PSG) preoperatively, the averaged apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) is 37.7 events/hour. We have 68 patients received tonsillectomy, 9 received UPPP, 42 received UPPP and septomeatoplasty (SMP) and 6 received adenoidectomy and tonsillectomy (A and T). The subjective daytime sleepiness was evaluated with the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Results: In the 68 tonsillectomy group, the averaged BMI is 24.9 kg/m2. In the UPPP group, the averaged BMI is 28.9 kg/m2. In UPPP and SMP group, the averaged BMI is 27.9 kg/m2. In the A and T group, the averaged BMI is 17.2 kg/m2. The reduction of AHI less than 20 is 58% postoperatively. The ESS reduced from 10.9 to 4.9 after surgery. Conclusion: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome is a common upper airway disturbance in the general population. The prevalence rate is ranging high depending on different regions, age, sex and race. It leads to severe morbidity and mortality including car accident, stroke, nocturnal desaand sudden death and should be considered to be a major public health problem. The CPAP is effective to improve daytime sleepiness but the long-term compliance is low. The surgical treatment with different modalities can produce 50% decrease in AHI and ESS after surgery in the 6 to 12 months short-term period.

Keywords: apnea-hypopnea index, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, polysomnography, uvulopalatopharyngoplasty

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1434 Measuring the Quality of Business Education: Employment Readiness Assessment

Authors: Gulbakhyt Sultanova

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Business education institutions assess the progress of their students by giving them grades for courses completed and calculating a Grade Point Average (GPA). Whether the participation in these courses has led to the development of competences enabling graduates to successfully compete in the labor market should be measured using a new index: Employment Readiness Assessment (ERA). The higher the ERA, the higher the quality of education at a business school. This is applied, empirical research conducted by using a method of linear optimization. The aim of research is to identify factors which lead to the minimization of the deviation of GPA from ERA as well as to the maximization of ERA. ERA is composed of three components resulting from testing proficiency in Business English, testing work and personal skills, and job interview simulation. The quality of education is improving if GPA approximates ERA and ERA increases. Factors which have had a positive effect on quality enhancement are academic mobility of students and staff, practical-oriented courses taught by staff with work experience, and research-based courses taught by staff with research experience. ERA is a better index to measure the quality of business education than traditional indexes such as GPA due to its greater accuracy in assessing the level of graduates’ competences demanded in the labor market. Optimizing the educational process in pursuit of quality enhancement, ERA has to be used in parallel with GPA to find out which changes worked and resulted in improvement.

Keywords: assessment and evaluation, competence evaluation, education quality, employment readiness

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1433 A Conceptual Framework of Integrated Evaluation Methodology for Aquaculture Lakes

Authors: Robby Y. Tallar, Nikodemus L., Yuri S., Jian P. Suen

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Research in the subject of ecological water resources management is full of trivial questions addressed and it seems, today to be one branch of science that can strongly contribute to the study of complexity (physical, biological, ecological, socio-economic, environmental, and other aspects). Existing literature available on different facets of these studies, much of it is technical and targeted for specific users. This study offered the combination all aspects in evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes with its paradigm refer to hierarchical theory and to the effects of spatial specific arrangement of an object into a space or local area. Therefore, the process in developing a conceptual framework represents the more integrated and related applicable concept from the grounded theory. A design of integrated evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes is presented. The method is based on the identification of a series of attributes which can be used to describe status of aquaculture lakes using certain indicators from aquaculture water quality index (AWQI), aesthetic aquaculture lake index (AALI) and rapid appraisal for fisheries index (RAPFISH). The preliminary preparation could be accomplished as follows: first, the characterization of study area was undertaken at different spatial scales. Second, an inventory data as a core resource such as city master plan, water quality reports from environmental agency, and related government regulations. Third, ground-checking survey should be completed to validate the on-site condition of study area. In order to design an integrated evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes, finally we integrated and developed rating scores system which called Integrated Aquaculture Lake Index (IALI).The development of IALI are reflecting a compromise all aspects and it responds the needs of concise information about the current status of aquaculture lakes by the comprehensive approach. IALI was elaborated as a decision aid tool for stakeholders to evaluate the impact and contribution of anthropogenic activities on the aquaculture lake’s environment. The conclusion was while there is no denying the fact that the aquaculture lakes are under great threat from the pressure of the increasing human activities, one must realize that no evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes can succeed by keeping the pristine condition. The IALI developed in this work can be used as an effective, low-cost evaluation methodology of aquaculture lakes for developing countries. Because IALI emphasizes the simplicity and understandability as it must communicate to decision makers and the experts. Moreover, stakeholders need to be helped to perceive their lakes so that sites can be accepted and valued by local people. For this site of lake development, accessibility and planning designation of the site is of decisive importance: the local people want to know whether the lake condition is safe or whether it can be used.

Keywords: aesthetic value, AHP, aquaculture lakes, integrated lakes, RAPFISH

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1432 Liquefaction Assessment of Marine Soil in Western Yemen Region Based on Laboratory and Field Tests

Authors: Monalisha Nayak, T. G. Sitharam

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Liquefaction is a major threat for sites consists of or on sandy soil. But this present study concentrates on the behavior of fine soil under cyclic loading. This paper presents the study of liquefaction susceptibility of marine silty clay to clayey silt for an offshore site near western Yemen. The submerged and loose sediment condition of marine soil of an offshore site can favour liquefaction during earthquakes. In this regard, the liquefaction susceptibility of the site was carried out based on both field test results and laboratory test results. From field test results of seismic cone penetration test (SCPT), liquefaction susceptibility was assessed considering normalized cone tip resistance, and normalized friction ratio and results give an idea regarding both cyclic mobility and flow liquefaction. Laboratory cyclic triaxial tests were also conducted on saturated undisturbed and remoulded sample to study the effect of cyclic loading on strength and strain characteristics. Liquefaction susceptibility of the marine soft soil was also carried out based on index properties like grain size distribution, natural moisture content and liquid limit of soil.

Keywords: index properties, liquefaction, marine soil, seismic cone penetration test (SCPT)

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1431 Risk and Reliability Based Probabilistic Structural Analysis of Railroad Subgrade Using Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Asif Arshid, Ying Huang, Denver Tolliver

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Finite Element (FE) method coupled with ever-increasing computational powers has substantially advanced the reliability of deterministic three dimensional structural analyses of a structure with uniform material properties. However, railways trackbed is made up of diverse group of materials including steel, wood, rock and soil, while each material has its own varying levels of heterogeneity and imperfections. It is observed that the application of probabilistic methods for trackbed structural analysis while incorporating the material and geometric variabilities is deeply underworked. The authors developed and validated a 3-dimensional FE based numerical trackbed model and in this study, they investigated the influence of variability in Young modulus and thicknesses of granular layers (Ballast and Subgrade) on the reliability index (-index) of the subgrade layer. The influence of these factors is accounted for by changing their Coefficients of Variance (COV) while keeping their means constant. These variations are formulated using Gaussian Normal distribution. Two failure mechanisms in subgrade namely Progressive Shear Failure and Excessive Plastic Deformation are examined. Preliminary results of risk-based probabilistic analysis for Progressive Shear Failure revealed that the variations in Ballast depth are the most influential factor for vertical stress at the top of subgrade surface. Whereas, in case of Excessive Plastic Deformations in subgrade layer, the variations in its own depth and Young modulus proved to be most important while ballast properties remained almost indifferent. For both these failure moods, it is also observed that the reliability index for subgrade failure increases with the increase in COV of ballast depth and subgrade Young modulus. The findings of this work is of particular significance in studying the combined effect of construction imperfections and variations in ground conditions on the structural performance of railroad trackbed and evaluating the associated risk involved. In addition, it also provides an additional tool to supplement the deterministic analysis procedures and decision making for railroad maintenance.

Keywords: finite element analysis, numerical modeling, probabilistic methods, risk and reliability analysis, subgrade

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1430 Enhanced Image Representation for Deep Belief Network Classification of Hyperspectral Images

Authors: Khitem Amiri, Mohamed Farah

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Image classification is a challenging task and is gaining lots of interest since it helps us to understand the content of images. Recently Deep Learning (DL) based methods gave very interesting results on several benchmarks. For Hyperspectral images (HSI), the application of DL techniques is still challenging due to the scarcity of labeled data and to the curse of dimensionality. Among other approaches, Deep Belief Network (DBN) based approaches gave a fair classification accuracy. In this paper, we address the problem of the curse of dimensionality by reducing the number of bands and replacing the HSI channels by the channels representing radiometric indices. Therefore, instead of using all the HSI bands, we compute the radiometric indices such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index), etc, and we use the combination of these indices as input for the Deep Belief Network (DBN) based classification model. Thus, we keep almost all the pertinent spectral information while reducing considerably the size of the image. In order to test our image representation, we applied our method on several HSI datasets including the Indian pines dataset, Jasper Ridge data and it gave comparable results to the state of the art methods while reducing considerably the time of training and testing.

Keywords: hyperspectral images, deep belief network, radiometric indices, image classification

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1429 Non-Linear Finite Element Analysis of Bonded Single Lap Joint in Composite Material

Authors: A. Benhamena, L. Aminallah, A. Aid, M. Benguediab, A. Amrouche

Abstract:

The goal of this work is to analyze the severity of interfacial stress distribution in the single lap adhesive joint under tensile loading. The three-dimensional and non-linear finite element method based on the computation of the peel and shear stresses was used to analyze the fracture behaviour of single lap adhesive joint. The effect of the loading magnitude and the overlap length on the distribution of peel and shear stresses was highlighted. A good correlation was found between the FEM simulations and the analytical results.

Keywords: aluminum 2024-T3 alloy, single-lap adhesive joints, Interface stress distributions, material nonlinear analysis, adhesive, bending moment, finite element method

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1428 Income Diversification of Small Holder Farmers in Bosso Local Government Area of Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: Oladipo Joseph Ajayi, Yakubu Muhammed, Caleb Galadima

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This study was conducted to examine the income diversification of smallholder farmers in Bosso Local Government area of Niger state, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the farmers, identify the sources of income among the farmers, determine the pattern of income diversification and evaluate the determinants of income diversification of farmers in the study area. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 94 respondents for the study. Primary data were used, and these were collected with aid of a well structured interview schedule. Descriptive statistics, diversity index, and Tobit regression model were employed to analyze the data. The mean age of the farmers was 44 years. The average household size was 8 members per household, and the average farming experience was 12 years. 21.27 percent did not have formal education. It was further found that 69.1 percent of the respondents had an income diversity index of 0.3-0.4. This indicated that their level of income diversification was moderately low. The determinants of income diversification in the study area were education, household size, marital status, and primary income. These variables were positively related to income diversification. The study revealed that diversification into various income sources has helped to increase household income to sustain the family demands even though their level of income diversification was low within the study area.

Keywords: diversification, income, households, smallholder farmers

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1427 Correlates of Coping in Individuals with Tinnitus

Authors: Antonio Oliveira, Rute F. Meneses, Nuno Trigueiros-Cunha

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Tinnitus is commonly defined as an aberrant perception of sound without external stimulus. It is a chronic condition, with consequences on the QOL. The coping strategies used were not always effective and coping was identified as a predictor of QOL in individuals with tinnitus, which reinforces the idea that in health the use of effective coping styles should be promoted. This work intend to verify relations between coping strategies assessed by BriefCope in subjects with tinnitus and variables such as gender, age and severity of tinnitus measured by THI and the Visual Analogue Scale and also hearing and hyperacusis. The results indicate that there are any statistically significant relationships between the variables assessed in relation to the results of BriefCope except in the Visual Analogue Scale. These results, indicating no relationship between almost all variables, reinforce the need for further study of coping strategies use by these patients.

Keywords: Brief Cope, coping strategies, quality of live, THI, Tinnitus

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1426 Salinity Response of Some Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) Genotypes in Germination and Seedling Growth of Periods

Authors: Onder Aldemir, Ercan Ceyhan

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The research was conducted to determine effects of salt concentrations on emergence and seedling development of chickpea genotypes. Trials were performed during the year of 2013 on the laboratory and greenhouse of Agricultural Faculty, Selcuk University. Emergency trial was set up according to ‘Randomized Plots Design’ by two factors and four replications; greenhouse trial was also set up according to ‘Randomized Plots Design’ by two factors with three replications. The chickpea genotypes; CA119, CA132, CA149, CA150, CA215, CA222, CA235, CA261, Bozkır and Gokce were used as material for both of the trials. Effects of the five doses of salt concentrations (control, 30 mM, 60 mM, 90 mM and 120 mM) on the ratio of emergency, speed of emergency, average time for emergency, index of sensibility, length of shoot and root, fresh weight of shoot and root, dry weight of shoot and root, index of salt tolerance were evaluated. Responses of the chickpea genotypes for salt concentrations were found different. Comparing to the control, all of the investigated characteristics on the chickpea genotypes showed significant reduction by depending on the increasing salt level. According to the effects of salt application, the chickpea genotypes Gokce, CA215 and CA222 were the most tolerant in respect to plant dry weights while the chickpea genotypes CA149 and CA150 were the most sensitive.

Keywords: chickpea, emergence, salt tolerant, seedling development

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1425 Strategy Management of Soybean (Glycine max L.) for Dealing with Extreme Climate through the Use of Cropsyst Model

Authors: Aminah Muchdar, Nuraeni, Eddy

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The aims of the research are: (1) to verify the cropsyst plant model of experimental data in the field of soybean plants and (2) to predict planting time and potential yield soybean plant with the use of cropsyst model. This research is divided into several stages: (1) first calibration stage which conducted in the field from June until September 2015.(2) application models stage, where the data obtained from calibration in the field will be included in cropsyst models. The required data models are climate data, ground data/soil data,also crop genetic data. The relationship between the obtained result in field with simulation cropsyst model indicated by Efficiency Index (EF) which the value is 0,939.That is showing that cropsyst model is well used. From the calculation result RRMSE which the value is 1,922%.That is showing that comparative fault prediction results from simulation with result obtained in the field is 1,92%. The conclusion has obtained that the prediction of soybean planting time cropsyst based models that have been made valid for use. and the appropriate planting time for planting soybeans mainly on rain-fed land is at the end of the rainy season, in which the above study first planting time (June 2, 2015) which gives the highest production, because at that time there was still some rain. Tanggamus varieties more resistant to slow planting time cause the percentage decrease in the yield of each decade is lower than the average of all varieties.

Keywords: soybean, Cropsyst, calibration, efficiency Index, RRMSE

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1424 Predicting OpenStreetMap Coverage by Means of Remote Sensing: The Case of Haiti

Authors: Ran Goldblatt, Nicholas Jones, Jennifer Mannix, Brad Bottoms

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Accurate, complete, and up-to-date geospatial information is the foundation of successful disaster management. When the 2010 Haiti Earthquake struck, accurate and timely information on the distribution of critical infrastructure was essential for the disaster response community for effective search and rescue operations. Existing geospatial datasets such as Google Maps did not have comprehensive coverage of these features. In the days following the earthquake, many organizations released high-resolution satellite imagery, catalyzing a worldwide effort to map Haiti and support the recovery operations. Of these organizations, OpenStreetMap (OSM), a collaborative project to create a free editable map of the world, used the imagery to support volunteers to digitize roads, buildings, and other features, creating the most detailed map of Haiti in existence in just a few weeks. However, large portions of the island are still not fully covered by OSM. There is an increasing need for a tool to automatically identify which areas in Haiti, as well as in other countries vulnerable to disasters, that are not fully mapped. The objective of this project is to leverage different types of remote sensing measurements, together with machine learning approaches, in order to identify geographical areas where OSM coverage of building footprints is incomplete. Several remote sensing measures and derived products were assessed as potential predictors of OSM building footprints coverage, including: intensity of light emitted at night (based on VIIRS measurements), spectral indices derived from Sentinel-2 satellite (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), urban index (UI)), surface texture (based on Sentinel-1 SAR measurements)), elevation and slope. Additional remote sensing derived products, such as Hansen Global Forest Change, DLR`s Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and World Settlement Footprint (WSF), were also evaluated as predictors, as well as OSM street and road network (including junctions). Using a supervised classification with a random forest classifier resulted in the prediction of 89% of the variation of OSM building footprint area in a given cell. These predictions allowed for the identification of cells that are predicted to be covered but are actually not mapped yet. With these results, this methodology could be adapted to any location to assist with preparing for future disastrous events and assure that essential geospatial information is available to support the response and recovery efforts during and following major disasters.

Keywords: disaster management, Haiti, machine learning, OpenStreetMap, remote sensing

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1423 Development of a Novel Clinical Screening Tool, Using the BSGE Pain Questionnaire, Clinical Examination and Ultrasound to Predict the Severity of Endometriosis Prior to Laparoscopic Surgery

Authors: Marlin Mubarak

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Background: Endometriosis is a complex disabling disease affecting young females in the reproductive period mainly. The aim of this project is to generate a diagnostic model to predict severity and stage of endometriosis prior to Laparoscopic surgery. This will help to improve the pre-operative diagnostic accuracy of stage 3 & 4 endometriosis and as a result, refer relevant women to a specialist centre for complex Laparoscopic surgery. The model is based on the British Society of Gynaecological Endoscopy (BSGE) pain questionnaire, clinical examination and ultrasound scan. Design: This is a prospective, observational, study, in which women completed the BSGE pain questionnaire, a BSGE requirement. Also, as part of the routine preoperative assessment patient had a routine ultrasound scan and when recto-vaginal and deep infiltrating endometriosis was suspected an MRI was performed. Setting: Luton & Dunstable University Hospital. Patients: Symptomatic women (n = 56) scheduled for laparoscopy due to pelvic pain. The age ranged between 17 – 52 years of age (mean 33.8 years, SD 8.7 years). Interventions: None outside the recognised and established endometriosis centre protocol set up by BSGE. Main Outcome Measure(s): Sensitivity and specificity of endometriosis diagnosis predicted by symptoms based on BSGE pain questionnaire, clinical examinations and imaging. Findings: The prevalence of diagnosed endometriosis was calculated to be 76.8% and the prevalence of advanced stage was 55.4%. Deep infiltrating endometriosis in various locations was diagnosed in 32/56 women (57.1%) and some had DIE involving several locations. Logistic regression analysis was performed on 36 clinical variables to create a simple clinical prediction model. After creating the scoring system using variables with P < 0.05, the model was applied to the whole dataset. The sensitivity was 83.87% and specificity 96%. The positive likelihood ratio was 20.97 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.17, indicating that the model has a good predictive value and could be useful in predicting advanced stage endometriosis. Conclusions: This is a hypothesis-generating project with one operator, but future proposed research would provide validation of the model and establish its usefulness in the general setting. Predictive tools based on such model could help organise the appropriate investigation in clinical practice, reduce risks associated with surgery and improve outcome. It could be of value for future research to standardise the assessment of women presenting with pelvic pain. The model needs further testing in a general setting to assess if the initial results are reproducible.

Keywords: deep endometriosis, endometriosis, minimally invasive, MRI, ultrasound.

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1422 Designing a Cricket Team Selection Method Using Super-Efficient DEA and Semi Variance Approach

Authors: Arnab Adhikari, Adrija Majumdar, Gaurav Gupta, Arnab Bisi

Abstract:

Team formation plays an instrumental role in the sports like cricket. Existing literature reveals that most of the works on player selection focus only on the players’ efficiency and ignore the consistency. It motivates us to design an improved player selection method based on both player’s efficiency and consistency. To measure the players’ efficiency measurement, we employ a modified data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique namely ‘super-efficient DEA model’. We design a modified consistency index based on semi variance approach. Here, we introduce a new parameter called ‘fitness index’ for consistency computation to assess a player’s fitness level. Finally, we devise a single performance score using both efficiency score and consistency score with the help of a linear programming model. To test the robustness of our method, we perform a rigorous numerical analysis to determine the all-time best One Day International (ODI) Cricket XI. Next, we conduct extensive comparative studies regarding efficiency scores, consistency scores, selected team between the existing methods and the proposed method and explain the rationale behind the improvement.

Keywords: decision support systems, sports, super-efficient data envelopment analysis, semi variance approach

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1421 Concerns for Extreme Climate Conditions and Their Implications in Southwest Nigeria

Authors: Oyenike Eludoyin

Abstract:

Extreme climate conditions are deviation from the norms and are capable of causing upsets in many important environmental parameter including disruption of water balance and air temperature balance. Studies have shown that extreme climate conditions can foretell disaster in regions with inadequate early warning systems. In this paper, we combined geographical information systems, statistics and social surveys to evaluate the physiologic indices [(Dewpoint Temperature (Td), Effective Temperature Index (ETI) and Relative Strain Index (RSI)] and extreme climate conditions in different parts of southwest Nigeria. This was with the view to assessing the nature and the impact of the conditions on the people and their coping strategies. The results indicate that minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were higher in 1960-1990 than 1991-2013 periods at most areas, and more than 80% of the people adapt to thermal stress by changing wear type or cloth, installing air conditioner and fan at home and/or work place and sleeping outside at certain period of the night and day. With respect to livelihoods, about 52% of the interviewed farmers indicated that too early rainfall, late rainfall, prolonged dryness after an initial rainfall, excessive rainfall and windstorms caused low crop yields. Main (76%) coping strategies were changing of planting dates, diversification of crops, and practices of mulching and intercropping. Government or institutional support was less than 20%.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme climate, livelihoods, physiologic comfort

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1420 Chinese Travelers’ Outbound Intentions to Visit Short-and-Long Haul Destinations: The Impact of Cultural Distance

Authors: Lei Qin

Abstract:

Culture has long been recognized as a possible reason to influence travelers’ decisions, which explains why travelers in different countries make distinct decisions. Cultural distance is a concept illustrating how much difference there is between travelers’ home culture and that of the destination, but the research in distinguishing short-and-long haul travel destinations is limited. This study explored the research gap by examining the impact of cultural distance on Chinese travelers’ intentions to visit short-haul and long-haul destinations, respectively. Six cultural distance measurements, including five measurements calculated from secondary database (Kogut & Singh, Developed Kogut & Singh, Euclidean distance Index (EDI), world value survey index (WVS), social axioms measurement (SAM)) and perceived cultural distance (PCD) collected from the primary survey. Of the six measurements, culture distance has the opposite impact on Chinese outbound travelers’ intentions in the short-haul and long haul. For short-haul travel, travelers’ intentions for traveling can be positive influenced by cultural distance; a possible reason is that travelers’ novelty-seeking satisfaction is greater than the strangeness obtained from overseas regions. For long-haul travel, travelers’ intentions for traveling can be negative influenced by cultural distance, a possible explanation is that travelers’ uncertainty, risk, and language concerns of farther destinations.

Keywords: cultural distance, intention, outbound travel, short-long haul

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1419 Influence of Deficient Materials on the Reliability of Reinforced Concrete Members

Authors: Sami W. Tabsh

Abstract:

The strength of reinforced concrete depends on the member dimensions and material properties. The properties of concrete and steel materials are not constant but random variables. The variability of concrete strength is due to batching errors, variations in mixing, cement quality uncertainties, differences in the degree of compaction and disparity in curing. Similarly, the variability of steel strength is attributed to the manufacturing process, rolling conditions, characteristics of base material, uncertainties in chemical composition, and the microstructure-property relationships. To account for such uncertainties, codes of practice for reinforced concrete design impose resistance factors to ensure structural reliability over the useful life of the structure. In this investigation, the effects of reductions in concrete and reinforcing steel strengths from the nominal values, beyond those accounted for in the structural design codes, on the structural reliability are assessed. The considered limit states are flexure, shear and axial compression based on the ACI 318-11 structural concrete building code. Structural safety is measured in terms of a reliability index. Probabilistic resistance and load models are compiled from the available literature. The study showed that there is a wide variation in the reliability index for reinforced concrete members designed for flexure, shear or axial compression, especially when the live-to-dead load ratio is low. Furthermore, variations in concrete strength have minor effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and sever effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. On the other hand, changes in steel yield strength have great effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and mild effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. Based on the outcome, it can be concluded that the reliability of beams is sensitive to changes in the yield strength of the steel reinforcement, whereas the reliability of columns is sensitive to variations in the concrete strength. Since the embedded target reliability in structural design codes results in lower structural safety in beams than in columns, large reductions in material strengths compromise the structural safety of beams much more than they affect columns.

Keywords: code, flexure, limit states, random variables, reinforced concrete, reliability, reliability index, shear, structural safety

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1418 HRCT of the Chest and the Role of Artificial Intelligence in the Evaluation of Patients with COVID-19

Authors: Parisa Mansour

Abstract:

Introduction: Early diagnosis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is extremely important to isolate and treat patients in time, thus preventing the spread of the disease, improving prognosis and reducing mortality. High-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) chest imaging and artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of HRCT chest images can play a central role in the treatment of patients with COVID-19. Objective: To investigate different chest HRCT findings in different stages of COVID-19 pneumonia and to evaluate the potential role of artificial intelligence in the quantitative assessment of lung parenchymal involvement in COVID-19 pneumonia. Materials and Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted between May 1, 2020 and August 13, 2020. The study included 2169 patients with COVID-19 who underwent chest HRCT. HRCT images showed the presence and distribution of lesions such as: ground glass opacity (GGO), compaction, and any special patterns such as septal thickening, inverted halo, mark, etc. HRCT findings of the breast at different stages of the disease (early: andlt) 5 days, intermediate: 6-10 days and late stage: >10 days). A CT severity score (CTSS) was calculated based on the extent of lung involvement on HRCT, which was then correlated with clinical disease severity. Use of artificial intelligence; Analysis of CT pneumonia and quot; An algorithm was used to quantify the extent of pulmonary involvement by calculating the percentage of pulmonary opacity (PO) and gross opacity (PHO). Depending on the type of variables, statistically significant tests such as chi-square, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc tests were applied when appropriate. Results: Radiological findings were observed in HRCT chest in 1438 patients. A typical pattern of COVID-19 pneumonia, i.e., bilateral peripheral GGO with or without consolidation, was observed in 846 patients. About 294 asymptomatic patients were radiologically positive. Chest HRCT in the early stages of the disease mostly showed GGO. The late stage was indicated by such features as retinal enlargement, thickening and the presence of fibrous bands. Approximately 91.3% of cases with a CTSS = 7 were asymptomatic or clinically mild, while 81.2% of cases with a score = 15 were clinically severe. Mean PO and PHO (30.1 ± 28.0 and 8.4 ± 10.4, respectively) were significantly higher in the clinically severe categories. Conclusion: Because COVID-19 pneumonia progresses rapidly, radiologists and physicians should become familiar with typical TC chest findings to treat patients early, ultimately improving prognosis and reducing mortality. Artificial intelligence can be a valuable tool in treating patients with COVID-19.

Keywords: chest, HRCT, covid-19, artificial intelligence, chest HRCT

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1417 Good Governance Complementary to Corruption Abatement: A Cross-Country Analysis

Authors: Kamal Ray, Tapati Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Private use of public office for private gain could be a tentative definition of corruption and most distasteful event of corruption is that it is not there, nor that it is pervasive, but it is socially acknowledged in the global economy, especially in the developing nations. We attempted to assess the interrelationship between the Corruption perception index (CPI) and the principal components of governance indicators as per World Bank like Control of Corruption (CC), rule of law (RL), regulatory quality (RQ) and government effectiveness (GE). Our empirical investigation concentrates upon the degree of reflection of governance indicators upon the CPI in order to single out the most powerful corruption-generating indicator in the selected countries. We have collected time series data on above governance indicators such as CC, RL, RQ and GE of the selected eleven countries from the year of 1996 to 2012 from World Bank data set. The countries are USA, UK, France, Germany, Greece, China, India, Japan, Thailand, Brazil, and South Africa. Corruption Perception Index (CPI) of the countries mentioned above for the period of 1996 to 2012is also collected. Graphical method of simple line diagram against the time series data on CPI is applied for quick view for the relative positions of different trend lines of different nations. The correlation coefficient is enough to assess primarily the degree and direction of association between the variables as we get the numerical data on governance indicators of the selected countries. The tool of Granger Causality Test (1969) is taken into account for investigating causal relationships between the variables, cause and effect to speak of. We do not need to verify stationary test as length of time series is short. Linear regression is taken as a tool for quantification of a change in explained variables due to change in explanatory variable in respect of governance vis a vis corruption. A bilateral positive causal link between CPI and CC is noticed in UK, index-value of CC increases by 1.59 units as CPI increases by one unit and CPI rises by 0.39 units as CC rises by one unit, and hence it has a multiplier effect so far as reduction in corruption is concerned in UK. GE causes strongly to the reduction of corruption in UK. In France, RQ is observed to be a most powerful indicator in reducing corruption whereas it is second most powerful indicator after GE in reducing of corruption in Japan. Governance-indicator like GE plays an important role to push down the corruption in Japan. In China and India, GE is proactive as well as influencing indicator to curb corruption. The inverse relationship between RL and CPI in Thailand indicates that ongoing machineries related to RL is not complementary to the reduction of corruption. The state machineries of CC in S. Africa are highly relevant to reduce the volume of corruption. In Greece, the variations of CPI positively influence the variations of CC and the indicator like GE is effective in controlling corruption as reflected by CPI. All the governance-indicators selected so far have failed to arrest their state level corruptions in USA, Germany and Brazil.

Keywords: corruption perception index, governance indicators, granger causality test, regression

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1416 Happiness of Thai People: An Analysis by Socioeconomic Factors

Authors: Kalayanee Senasu

Abstract:

This research investigates Thai people’s happiness based on socioeconomic factors, i.e. region, municipality, gender, age, and occupation. The research data were collected from survey data using interviewed questionnaires. The primary data were from stratified multi-stage sampling in each region, province, district, and enumeration area; and simple random sampling in each enumeration area. These data were collected in 13 provinces: Bangkok and three provinces in each of all four regions. The data were collected over two consecutive years. There were 3,217 usable responses from the 2017 sampling, and 3,280 usable responses from the 2018 sampling. The Senasu’s Thai Happiness Index (THaI) was used to calculate the happiness level of Thai people in 2017 and 2018. This Thai Happiness Index comprises five dimensions: subjective well-being, quality of life, philosophy of living, governance, and standard of living. The result reveals that the 2017 happiness value is 0.506, while Thai people are happier in 2018 (THaI = 0.556). For 2017 happiness, people in the Central region have the highest happiness (THaI = 0.532), which is followed closely by people in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area (THaI = 0.530). People in the North have the lowest happiness (THaI = 0.476) which is close to the level for people in the Northeast (THaI = 0.479). Comparing age groups, it is found that people in the age range 25-29 years old are the happiest (THaI = 0.529), followed by people in the age range 55-59 and 35-39 years old (THaI = 0.526 and 0.523, respectively). Additionally, people who live in municipal areas are happier than those who live in non-municipal areas (THaI = 0.533 vs. 0.475). Males are happier than females (THaI = 0.530 vs. 0.482), and retired people, entrepreneurs, and government employees are all in the high happiness groups (THaI =0.614, 0.608, and 0.593, respectively). For 2018 happiness, people in the Northern region have the highest happiness (THaI = 0.590), which is followed closely by people in the South and Bangkok Metropolitan Area (THaI = 0.578 and 0.577, respectively). People in the Central have the lowest happiness (THaI = 0.530), which is close to the level for people in the Northeast (THaI = 0.533). Comparing age groups, it is found that people in the age range 35-39 years old are the happiest (THaI = 0.572), followed by people in the age range 40-44 and 60-64 years old (THaI = 0.569 and 0.568, respectively). Similar to 2017 happiness, people who live in municipal areas are happier than those who live in non-municipal areas (THaI = 0.567 vs. 0. 552). However, males and females are happy at about the same levels (THaI = 0.561 vs. 0.560), and government employees, retired people, and state enterprise employees are all in the high happiness groups (THaI =0.667, 0.639, and 0.661, respectively).

Keywords: happiness, quality of life, Thai happiness index, socio-economic factors

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1415 Enhancements to the Coupled Hydro-Mechanical Hypoplastic Model for Unsaturated Soils

Authors: Shanujah Mathuranayagam, William Fuentes, Samanthika Liyanapathirana

Abstract:

This paper introduces an enhanced version of the coupled hydro-mechanical hypoplastic model. The model is able to simulate volumetric collapse upon wetting and incorporates suction effects on stiffness and strength. Its mechanical constitutive equation links Bishop’s effective stress with strain and suction, featuring a normal consolidation line (NCL) with a compression index (λ) presenting a non-linear dependency with the degree of saturation. The Bulk modulus has been modified to ensure that under rapid volumetric collapse, the stress state remains at the NCL. The coupled model comprises eighteen parameters, with nine for the hydraulic component and nine for the mechanical component. Hydraulic parameters are calibrated with the use of water retention curves (IWRC) across varied soil densities, while mechanical parameters undergo calibration using isotropic and triaxial tests on both unsaturated and saturated samples. The model's performance is analyzed through the back-calculation of two experimental studies: (i) wetting under different vertical stresses for Lower Cromer Till and (ii) isotropic loading and triaxial loading for undisturbed loess. The results confirm that the proposed model is able to predict the hydro-mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils.

Keywords: hypoplastic model, volumetric collapse, normal consolidation line, compression index (λ), degree of saturation, soil suction

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1414 GIS-Based Spatial Distribution and Evaluation of Selected Heavy Metals Contamination in Topsoil around Ecton Mining Area, Derbyshire, UK

Authors: Zahid O. Alibrahim, Craig D. Williams, Clive L. Roberts

Abstract:

The study area (Ecton mining area) is located in the southern part of the Peak District in Derbyshire, England. It is bounded by the River Manifold from the west. This area has been mined for a long period. As a result, huge amounts of potentially toxic metals were released into the surrounding area and are most likely to be a significant source of heavy metal contamination to the local soil, water and vegetation. In order to appraise the potential heavy metal pollution in this area, 37 topsoil samples (5-20 cm depth) were collected and analysed for their total content of Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn, Cr, Ni and V using ICP (Inductively Coupled Plasma) optical emission spectroscopy. Multivariate Geospatial analyses using the GIS technique were utilised to draw geochemical maps of the metals of interest over the study area. A few hotspot points, areas of elevated concentrations of metals, were specified, which are presumed to be the results of anthropogenic activities. In addition, the soil’s environmental quality was evaluated by calculating the Mullers’ Geoaccumulation index (I geo), which suggests that the degree of contamination of the investigated heavy metals has the following trend: Pb > Zn > Cu > Mn > Ni = Cr = V. Furthermore, the potential ecological risk, using the enrichment factor (EF), was also specified. On the basis of the calculated amount or the EF, the levels of pollution for the studied metals in the study area have the following order: Pb>Zn>Cu>Cr>V>Ni>Mn.

Keywords: enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, GIS, heavy metals, multivariate analysis

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1413 Crash Statistics Comparison for Riyadh, Eastern Province, and Qaseem for 2016 and 2017

Authors: Hassan M. Al-Ahmadi

Abstract:

The fatality index (deaths/100 K population) due to road traffic accidents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is over 25, according to the World Health Organization Statistics (WHO) statistics, which is much higher than in the neighboring Arab regions. The KSA has implemented measures to mitigate traffic accidents by enforcing road safety regulations. As a result, there has been a slight decline in the frequency of road traffic accidents within the Kingdom. This study was based on the variations in the accidents for three provinces of KSA, i.e., Riyadh, Eastern Province (EP), & Qaseem, for 2016 and 2017 using ANOVA method. Data appropriateness for the ANOVA method was confirmed by the normality and the randomness of residuals. Additionally, the half-normal plot was used to identify the significant terms for the ANOVA analysis. The analysis revealed that the accidents in the EP were significantly higher than in the other two provinces during the analysis period. The monthly variation showed a spike in the accidents from month 7th to 9th month in the EP region and a slight drop in the accidents in the Qaseem and the Riyadh region during the same period, which was attributed to the increased leisure travels from the other regions to the EP. Furthermore, most of the accidents were found to occur in the age group of 18+ and 30+, and also the major reduction of accidents in 2017 as compared to 2016 was found to have occurred in the same group. These findings can be beneficial for developing strategies to further reduce the number of accidents.

Keywords: fatality index, emergency, road traffic accident, safety, leisure travels

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1412 Effect of Pretreatment on Quality Parameters of Natural Convection Mixed-Mode Solar Dried Potato

Authors: Kshanaprava Dhalsamant, Punyadarshini P. Tripathy, Shanker L. Shrivastava

Abstract:

With present high global population, the need for rising food usage by minimizing food wastage and investment is highly necessary to achieve food security. The purpose of this study is to enlighten the effect of pre-drying treatment on rehydration, color, texture, nanohardness, microstructure and surface morphology of solar dried potato samples dried in the mixed-mode solar dryer. Locally bought potatoes were cleaned and cut into cylindrical pieces and pretreated with sodium metabisulfite (0.5%) for 10 min before placing them in natural convection solar dryer designed and developed in Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. Advanced quality characteristics were studied using Atomic Force Microscope (AFM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and nanoindentation method, along with color, texture and water activity. The rehydration indices of solar dried potatoes were significantly biased by pretreatment followed by rehydration temperature. A lower redness index (a*) with a higher value of yellowness index (b*), chroma (C*) and hue angle (h*) were obtained for pretreated samples. Also, the average nanohardness (H) of untreated samples exhibited substantial lower value (18.46%) compared to pretreated samples. Additionally, a creep displacement of 43.27 nm during 20 s dwell time under constant load of 200

Keywords: pretreatment, nanohardness, microstructure, surface morphology

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1411 Fodder Production and Livestock Rearing in Relation to Climate Change and Possible Adaptation Measures in Manaslu Conservation Area, Nepal

Authors: Bhojan Dhakal, Naba Raj Devkota, Chet Raj Upreti, Maheshwar Sapkota

Abstract:

A study was conducted to find out the production potential, nutrient composition, and the variability of the most commonly available fodder trees along with the varying altitude to help optimize the dry matter requirement during winter lean period. The study was carried out from March to June, 2012 in Lho and Prok Village Development Committee of Manaslu Conservation Area (MCA), located in Gorkha district of Nepal. The other objective of the research was to learn the impact of climate change on livestock production linking it with feed availability. The study was conducted in two parts: social and biological. Accordingly, a households (HHs) survey was conducted to collect primary data from 70 HHs, focusing on the perception of respondents on impacts of climatic variability on the feeding management. The next part consisted of understanding yield potential and nutrient composition of the four most commonly available fodder trees (M. azedirach, M. alba, F. roxburghii, F. nemoralis), within two altitudes range: (1500-2000 masl and 2000-2500 masl) by using a RCB design in 2*4 factorial combination of treatments, each replicated four times. Results revealed that majority of the farmers perceived the change in climatic phenomenon more severely within the past five years. Farmers were using different adaptation technologies such as collection of forage from jungle, reducing unproductive animals, fodder trees utilization, and crop by product feeding at feed scarcity period. Ranking of the different fodder trees on the basis of indigenous knowledge and experiences revealed that F. roxburghii was the best-preferred fodder tree species (index value 0.72) in terms overall preferability whereas M. azedirach had highest growth and productivity (index value 0.77), F. roxburghii had highest adoptability (index value 0.69) and palatability (index value 0.69) as well. Similarly, fresh yield and dry matter yield of the each fodder trees was significant (P < 0.01) between the altitude and within species. Fodder trees yield analysis revealed that the highest dry matter (DM) yield (28 kg/tree) was obtained for F. roxburghii but that remained statistically similar (P > 0.05) to the other treatment. On the other hand, most of the parameters: ether extract (EE), acid detergent lignin (ADL), acid detergent fibre (ADF), cell wall digestibility (CWD), relative digestibility (RD), digestible nutrient (TDN), and Calcium (Ca) among the treatments were highly significant (P < 0.01). This indicates the scope of introducing productive and nutritive fodder trees species even at the high altitude to help reduce fodder scarcity problem during winter. The finding also revealed the scope of promoting all available local fodder trees species as crude protein content of these species were similar.

Keywords: fodder trees, yield potential, climate change, nutrient composition

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