Search results for: exponential growth

Authors: Mounir Belattar

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In this paper the Analysis of voltage waves that propagate along a lossless exponential nonuniform line is presented. For this analysis the parameters of this line are assumed to be varying function of the distance x along the line from the source end. The approach is based on the tow-port networks cascading presentation to derive the ABDC parameters of transmission using Picard-Carson Method which is a powerful method in getting a power series solution for distributed network because it is easy to calculate poles and zeros and solves differential equations such as telegrapher equations by an iterative sequence. So the impedance, admittance voltage and current along the line are expanded as a Taylor series in x/l where l is the total length of the line to obtain at the end, the main transmission line parameters such as voltage response and transmission and reflexion coefficients represented by scattering parameters in frequency domain.

Keywords: ABCD parameters, characteristic impedance exponential nonuniform transmission line, Picard-Carson's method, S parameters, Taylor's series

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Authors: Peter L. Varkonyi, Andras A. Sipos

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The quasi-static growth of elastic fibers is studied in the presence of distributed contact with an immobile surface, subject to isotropic dry or viscous friction. Unlike classical problems of elastic stability modelled by autonomous dynamical systems with multiple time scales (slowly varying bifurcation parameter, and fast system dynamics), this problem can only be formulated as a non-autonomous system without time scale separation. It is found that the fibers initially converge to a trivial, straight configuration, which is later replaced by divergence reminiscent of buckling phenomena. In order to capture the loss of stability, a new definition of exponential stability against infinitesimal perturbations for systems defined over finite time intervals is developed. A semi-analytical method for the determination of the critical length based on eigenvalue analysis is proposed. The post-critical behavior of the fibers is studied numerically by using variational methods. The emerging post-critical shapes and the asymptotic behavior as length goes to infinity are identified for simple spatial distributions of growth. Comparison with physical experiments indicates reasonable accuracy of the theoretical model. Some applications from modeling plant root growth to the design of soft manipulators in robotics are briefly discussed.

Keywords: buckling, elastica, friction, growth

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Authors: Liang Liu, Xiaopeng Luo

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In this paper, we propose an accelerated stochastic gradient method with momentum. The momentum term is the weighted average of generated gradients, and the weights decay inverse proportionally with the iteration times. Stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM) uses weights that decay exponentially with the iteration times to generate the momentum term. Using exponential decay weights, variants of SGDM with inexplicable and complicated formats have been proposed to achieve better performance. However, the momentum update rules of our method are as simple as that of SGDM. We provide theoretical convergence analyses, which show both the exponential decay weights and our inverse proportional decay weights can limit the variance of the parameter moving directly to a region. Experimental results show that our method works well with many practical problems and outperforms SGDM.

Keywords: exponential decay rate weight, gradient descent, inverse proportional decay rate weight, momentum

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Authors: Nay Myo Sandar

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With the growth of technologies and applications, a large amount of data has been producing at increasing rate from various resources such as social media networks, sensor devices, and other information serving devices. This large collection of massive, complex and exponential growth of dataset is called big data. The traditional database systems cannot store and process such data due to large and complexity. Consequently, cloud computing is a potential solution for data storage and processing since it can provide a pool of resources for servers and storage. However, moving large amount of data to and from is a challenging issue since it can encounter a high latency due to large data size. With respect to big data movement problem, this paper reviews the literature of previous works, discusses about research issues, finds out approaches for dealing with big data movement problem.

Keywords: Big Data, Cloud Computing, Big Data Movement, Network Techniques

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Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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Authors: Gabriel I. Loaiza Ossa, Carlos A. Cadavid Moreno, Juan C. Arango Parra

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It is known that the Riemannian manifold determined by the family of inverse Gaussian distributions endowed with the Fisher metric has negative constant curvature κ= -1/2, as does the family of usual Gaussian distributions. In the present paper, firstly, we arrive at this result by following a different path, much simpler than the previous ones. We first put the family in exponential form, thus endowing the family with a new set of parameters, or coordinates, θ₁, θ₂; then we determine the matrix of the Fisher metric in terms of these parameters; and finally we compute this matrix in the original parameters. Secondly, we define the inverse q-Gaussian distribution family (q < 3) as the family obtained by replacing the usual exponential function with the Tsallis q-exponential function in the expression for the inverse Gaussian distribution and observe that it supports two possible geometries, the Fisher and the q-Fisher geometry. And finally, we apply our strategy to obtain results about the Fisher and q-Fisher geometry of the inverse q-Gaussian distribution family, similar to the ones obtained in the case of the inverse Gaussian distribution family.

Keywords: base of changes, information geometry, inverse Gaussian distribution, inverse q-Gaussian distribution, statistical manifolds

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy

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Authors: Marinko Skare, Malgorzata Porada Rochon

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This paper study the link between energy justice and economic growth. The link between energy justice and growth has not been extensively studied. Here we study the impact and importance of energy justice, as a part of the energy transition process, on economic growth. Our study shows energy justice growth is an important determinant of economic growth and development that should be addressed at the industry and economic levels. We use panel data modeling and causality testing to research the empirical link between energy justice and economic growth. Industry and economy-level policies designed to support energy justice initiatives are beneficial to economic growth. Energy justice is a necessary condition for green growth and sustainability targets.

Keywords: energy justice, economic growth, panel data, energy transition

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Authors: Suparman Suparman

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A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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Authors: Marcela dos P. G. Baltazar, Louise H. Gracioso, Luciana J. Gimenes, Bruno Karolski, Ingrid Avanzi, Elen A. Perpetuo

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In this work, bacterial strains were isolated from environmental samples from a copper mine and three of them presented potential for bioremediation of copper. All the strains were identified by mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-Biotyper) and grown in three diferent media supplemented with 100 ppm of copper chloride in flasks of 500mL and it was incubated at 28 °C and 180 rpm. Periodically, samples were taken and monitored for cellular growth and copper biosorption by spectrophotometer UV-Vis (600 nm) and Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES), respectively. At the end of exponential phase of cellular growth, the biomass was utilized to construct a correlation curve between absorbance and dry mass of the cells. Among the three isolates with potential for biorremediation, 1 strain exhibit capacity the most for bioremediation of effluents contaminated by copper being identified as Rhodococcus erythropolis.

Keywords: bioprocess, bioremediation, biosorption, copper

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Authors: Mark A. Spooner

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The growth of technological advances in the digital communications industry has dictated the way forensic examination laboratories receive, analyze, and report on digital evidence. This study looks at the trends in a medium sized digital forensics lab that examines small communications devices (i.e., cellular telephones, tablets, thumb drives, etc.) over the past five years. As law enforcement and homeland security organizations budgets shrink, many agencies are being asked to perform more examinations with less resources available. Using multi-level statistical analysis using five years of examination data, this research shows the increasing technological demand trend. The research then extrapolates the current data into the model created and finds a continued exponential growth curve of said demands is well within the parameters defined earlier on in the research.

Keywords: digital forensics, forensic examination, small device, trends

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Authors: Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho Xaba, Thatoyaone Modise

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This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, Kaldor’s law, manufacturing growth

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Authors: Muhammad Jabbar

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In this paper we propose two ratio and ratio type exponential estimator for the estimation of population coefficient of variation using the auxiliary information under two-stage sampling. The properties of these estimators are derived up to first order of approximation. The efficiency conditions under which suggested estimator are more efficient, are obtained. Numerical and simulated studies are conducted to support the superiority of the estimators. Theoretically and numerically, we have found that our proposed estimator is always more efficient as compared to its competitor estimator.

Keywords: two-stage sampling, coefficient of variation, ratio type exponential estimator

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Authors: Ivan Baravy

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Interpolation problem, as it was initially posed in terms of polynomials, is well researched. However, further mathematical developments extended it significantly. Trigonometric interpolation is widely used in Fourier analysis, while its generalized representation as exponential interpolation is applicable to such problem of mathematical physics as modelling of Ziegler-Biersack-Littmark repulsive interatomic potentials. Formulated for finite fields, this problem arises in decoding Reed--Solomon codes. This paper shows the relation between different interpretations of the problem through the class of matrices of special structure - Hankel matrices.

Keywords: Berlekamp-Massey algorithm, exponential interpolation, finite fields, Hankel matrices, Hankel polynomials

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Authors: W. K. Zahra, M. A. El-Beltagy, R. R. Elkhadrawy

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So many practical problems in science and technology developed over the past decays. For instance, the mathematical boundary layer theory or the approximation of solution for different problems described by differential equations. When such problems consider large or small parameters, they become increasingly complex and therefore require the use of asymptotic methods. In this work, we consider the singularly perturbed boundary value problems which contain very small parameters. Moreover, we will consider these perturbation parameters as random variables. We propose a numerical method to solve this kind of problems. The proposed method is based on an exponential spline, Shishkin mesh discretization, and polynomial chaos expansion. The polynomial chaos expansion is used to handle the randomness exist in the perturbation parameter. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) are used to validate the solution and the accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results are provided to show the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method, which maintains a very remarkable high accuracy and it is ε-uniform convergence of almost second order.

Keywords: singular perturbation problem, polynomial chaos expansion, Shishkin mesh, two small parameters, exponential spline

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Authors: Nisha Deopa, A. S. Rao

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Neodymium doped lithium lead alumino borate glasses were synthesized with the molar composition 10Li₂O – 10PbO – (10-x) Al₂O₃ – 70B₂O₃ – xNd₂O₃ (where, x = 0.1, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 mol %) via conventional melt quenching technique to understand their lasing potentiality. From the absorption spectra, Judd-Ofelt intensity parameters along with various spectroscopic parameters have been estimated. The emission spectra recorded for the as-prepared glasses under investigation exhibit two emission transitions, ⁴F₃/₂→⁴I₁₁/₂ (1063 nm) and ⁴F₃/₂→⁴I₉/₂ (1350 nm) for which radiative parameters have been evaluated. The emission intensity increases with increase in Nd³⁺ ion concentration up to 1 mol %, and beyond concentration quenching took place. The decay profile shows single exponential nature for lower Nd³⁺ ions concentration and non-exponential for higher concentration. To elucidate the nature of energy transfer process, non-exponential decay curves were well fitted to Inokuti-Hirayama model. The relatively high values of emission cross-section, branching ratio, lifetimes and quantum efficiency suggest that 1.0 mol% of Nd³⁺ in LiPbAlB glasses is aptly suitable to generate lasing action in NIR region at 1063 nm.

Keywords: energy transfer, glasses, J-O parameters, photoluminescence

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Authors: Abdulrahman Abdulrahman

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A side weir is a hydraulic structure set into the side of a channel. This structure is used for water level control in channels, to divert flow from a main channel into a side channel when the water level in the main channel exceeds a specific limit and as storm overflows from urban sewerage system. Computation of water surface over the side weirs is essential to determine the flow rate of the side weir. Analytical solutions for water surface profile along rectangular side weir are available only for the special cases of rectangular and trapezoidal channels considering constant specific energy. In this paper, a rectangular side weir located in a combined (trapezoidal with exponential) channel was considered. Expanding binominal series of integer and fraction powers and the using of reduction formula of cosine function integrals, a general analytical formula was obtained for water surface profile along a side weir in a combined (trapezoidal with exponential) channel. Since triangular, rectangular, trapezoidal and parabolic cross-sections are special cases of the combined cross section, the derived formula, is applicable to triangular, rectangular, trapezoidal cross-sections as analytical solution and semi-analytical solution to parabolic cross-section with maximum relative error smaller than 0.76%. The proposed solution should be a useful engineering tool for the evaluation and design of side weirs in open channel.

Keywords: analytical solution, combined channel, exponential channel, side weirs, trapezoidal channel, water surface profile

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Authors: Saurabh Chaudhury, Sanjeet Kumar Sinha

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The MOSFET has been the main building block in high performance and low power VLSI chips for the last several decades. Device scaling is fundamental to technological advancements, which allows more devices to be integrated on a single die providing greater functionality per chip. Ultimately, the goal of scaling is to build an individual transistor that is smaller, faster, cheaper, and consumes less power. Scaling continued following Moore's law initially and now we see an exponential growth in today's nano scaled chip. However, device scaling to deep nano meter regime leads to exponential increase in leakage currents and excessive heat generation. Moreover, fabrication process variability causing a limitation to further scaling. Researchers believe that with a mix of chemistry, physics, and engineering, nano electronics may provide a solution to increasing fabrication costs and may allow integrated circuits to be scaled beyond the limits of the modern transistor. Carbon nano tube (CNT) and nano wires (NW) based FETs have been analyzed and characterized in laboratory and also been demonstrated as prototypes. This work presents an extensive simulation based study and analysis of CNTFET and NW-FET devices and comparison of the results with conventional MOSFET. From this study, we can conclude that these devices have got some excellent properties and favorable characteristics which will definitely lead the future semiconductor devices in post silicon era.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, nanowire FET, low power, nanoscaled devices, VLSI

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: Khattab Al Qaisi, Nicholas Bowring

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This paper presents the simulation results of the effects of sampling frequency on the total harmonic distortion (THD) of three-phase inverters using the space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) and space vector control (SVC) algorithms. The relationship between the variables was studied using curve fitting techniques, and it has been shown that, for 50 Hz inverters, there is an exponential relation between the sampling frequency and THD up to around 8500 Hz, beyond which the performance of the model becomes irregular, and there is an negative exponential relation between the sampling frequency and the marginal improvement to the THD. It has also been found that the performance of SVPWM is better than that of SVC with the same sampling frequency in most frequency range, including the range where the performance of the former is irregular.

Keywords: DSI, SVPWM, THD, DC-AC converter, sampling frequency, performance

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Authors: N. Smaoui, B. Chentouf

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The boundary stabilization problem of the rotating disk-beam system is a topic of interest in research studies. This system involves a flexible beam attached to the center of a disk, and the control and stabilization of this system have been extensively studied. This research focuses on the case where the center of mass is fixed in an inertial frame, and the rotation of the center is non-uniform. The system is represented by a set of nonlinear coupled partial differential equations and ordinary differential equations. The boundary stabilization problem of this system via a delayed boundary control is considered. We assume that the boundary control is either of a force type control or a moment type control and is subject to the presence of a constant time-delay. The aim of this research is threefold: First, we demonstrate that the rotating disk-beam system is well-posed in an appropriate functional space. Then, we establish the exponential stability property of the system. Finally, we provide numerical simulations that illustrate the theoretical findings. The research utilizes the semigroup theory to establish the well-posedness of the system. The resolvent method is then employed to prove the exponential stability property. Finally, the finite element method is used to demonstrate the theoretical results through numerical simulations. The research findings indicate that the rotating disk-beam system can be stabilized using a boundary control with a time delay. The proof of stability is based on the resolvent method and a variation of constants formula. The numerical simulations further illustrate the theoretical results. The findings have potential implications for the design and implementation of control strategies in similar systems. In conclusion, this research demonstrates that the rotating disk-beam system can be stabilized using a boundary control with time delay. The well-posedness and exponential stability properties are established through theoretical analysis, and these findings are further supported by numerical simulations. The research contributes to the understanding and practical application of control strategies for flexible structures, providing insights into the stability of rotating disk-beam systems.

Keywords: rotating disk-beam, delayed force control, delayed moment control, torque control, exponential stability

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis

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Authors: Ujjwala Bhand, Mridula Goel

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Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) prepared by World Economic Forum has become a benchmark in studying the competitiveness of countries and for understanding the factors that enable competitiveness. Innovation is a key pillar in competitiveness and has the unique property of enabling exponential economic growth. This paper attempts to analyze how the pillars comprising the Global Competitiveness Index affect innovation and whether GDP growth can directly affect innovation outcomes for a country. The key objective of the study is to identify areas on which governments of developing countries can focus policies and programs to improve their country’s innovativeness. We have compiled a panel data set for top innovating countries and large emerging economies called BRICS from 2007-08 to 2014-15 in order to find the significant factors that affect innovation. The results of the regression analysis suggest that government should make policies to improve labor market efficiency, establish sophisticated business networks, provide basic health and primary education to its people and strengthen the quality of higher education and training services in the economy. The achievements of smaller economies on innovation suggest that concerted efforts by governments can counter any size related disadvantage, and in fact can provide greater flexibility and speed in encouraging innovation.

Keywords: innovation, global competitiveness index, BRICS, economic growth

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Authors: Blair D. Macdonald

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After nearly one hundred years of its origin, foundational quantum mechanics remains one of the greatest unexplained mysteries in physicists today. Within this time, chaos theory and its geometry, the fractal, has developed. In this paper, the propagation behaviour with an iteration of a simple fractal, the Koch Snowflake, was described and analysed. From an arbitrary observation point within the fractal set, the fractal propagates forward by oscillation—the focus of this study and retrospectively behind by exponential growth from a point beginning. It propagates a potentially infinite exponential oscillating sinusoidal wave of discrete triangle bits sharing many characteristics of light and quantum entities. The model's wave speed is potentially constant, offering insights into the perception and a direction of time where, to an observer, when travelling at the frontier of propagation, time may slow to a stop. In isolation, the fractal is a superposition of component bits where position and scale present a problem of location. In reality, this problem is experienced within fractal landscapes or fields where 'position' is only 'known' by the addition of information or markers. The quantum' measurement problem', 'uncertainty principle,' 'entanglement,' and the classical-quantum interface are addressed; these are a problem of scale invariance associated with isolated fractality. Dual forward and retrospective perspectives of the fractal model offer the opportunity for unification between quantum mechanics and cosmological mathematics, observations, and conjectures. Quantum and cosmological problems may be different aspects of the one fractal geometry.

Keywords: measurement problem, observer, entanglement, unification

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Authors: M. Tiachachat, M. Mihoubi

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The Bell polynomials are special polynomials in combinatorial analysis that have a wide range of applications in mathematics. They have interested many authors. The exponential partial Bell polynomials have been well reduced to some special combinatorial sequences. Numerous researchers had already been interested in the above polynomials, as evidenced by many articles in the literature. Inspired by this work, in this work, we propose a family of special polynomials named after the 2-successive partial Bell polynomials. Using the combinatorial approach, we prove the properties of these numbers, derive several identities, and discuss some special cases. This family includes well-known numbers and polynomials such as Stirling numbers, Bell numbers and polynomials, and so on. We investigate their properties by employing generating functions

Keywords: 2-associated r-Stirling numbers, the exponential partial Bell polynomials, generating function, combinatorial interpretation

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Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

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The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures

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Authors: Jon-Chao Hong, Tsai-Ru Fan, Shih-Min Hsu

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Virtual reality (VR) can generate mirror neurons that facilitate learners to transfer virtual skills to a real environment in skill training, and most studies approved the positive effect of applying in many domains. However, rare studies have focused on the experiential values of participants from a gender perspective. To address this issue, the present study used a VR program named kitchen assistant training, focusing on cutting vegetables and invited 400 students to practice for 20 minutes. Useful data from 367 were subjected to statistical analysis. The results indicated that male participants. From the comparison of average, it seems that females perceived higher than males in learning effectiveness. Expectedly, the VR-Cutting vegetables can be used for pre-training of real vegetable cutting.

Keywords: exponential value, facilitate learning, gender difference, virtual reality

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

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Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

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The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

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Authors: Bina Kumari, Subir K. Sarkar, Pradipta Bandyopadhyay

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The autocorrelation function of the density fluctuation is studied in each of the two phases in a Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC) simulation of the problem of phase separation for a square well potential with various values of its range. We find that the normalized autocorrelation function is described very well as a linear combination of an exponential function with a time scale τ₂ and a stretched exponential function with a time scale τ₁ and an exponent α. Dependence of (α, τ₁, τ₂) on the parameters of the GEMC algorithm and the range of the square well potential is investigated and interpreted. We also analyse the issue of how to choose the parameters of the GEMC simulation optimally.

Keywords: autocorrelation function, density fluctuation, GEMC, simulation

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