Search results for: causal map.

Authors: Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman, Ahamed Kameel, Hasanuddeen Abdul Aziz

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In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The findings of the study showed that industrial production index, political election and financial crisis are the only variables having unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However, the global oil prices is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV. Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial production index, global oil prices, political election and financial crisis. However, the market is approaching towards informational efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables, treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate and corruption index.

Keywords: fund unit price, unit trust industry, Malaysia, macroeconomic variables, causality

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Authors: Akshay Patil

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Objective: Mediation analysis identifies causal pathways by testing the relationships between the NCR, the OS, and an intermediate variable that mediates the relationship between the Nimotuzumab-cisplatin-radiation (NCR) and OS. Introduction: In randomized controlled trials, the primary interest is in the mechanisms by which an intervention exerts its effects on the outcomes. Clinicians are often interested in how the intervention works (or why it does not work) through hypothesized causal mechanisms. In this work, we highlight the value of understanding causal mechanisms in randomized trial by applying causal mediation analysis in a randomized trial in oncology. Methods: Data was obtained from a phase III randomized trial (Subgroup of HPVNOCP). NCR is reported to significantly improve the OS of patients locally advanced head and neck cancer patients undergoing definitive chemoradiation. Here, based on trial data, the mediating effect of NCR on patient overall survival was systematically quantified through progression-free survival(PFS), disease free survival (DFS), Loco-regional failure (LRF), and the disease control rate (DCR), Overall response rate (ORR). Effects of potential mediators on the HR for OS with NCR versus cisplatin-radiation (CR) were analyzed by Cox regression models. Statistical analyses were performed using R software Version 3.6.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) Results: Effects of potential mediator PFS was an association between NCR treatment and OS, with an indirect-effect (IE) 0.76(0.62 – 0.95), which mediated 60.69% of the treatment effect. Taking into account baseline confounders, the overall adjusted hazard ratio of death was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43 – 0.96; P=0.03). The DFS was also a significant mediator and had an IE 0.77 (95% CI; 0.62-0.93), 58% mediated). Smaller mediation effects (maximum 27%) were observed for LRF with IE 0.88(0.74 – 1.06). Both DCR and ORR mediated 10% and 15%, respectively, of the effect of NCR vs. CR on the OS with IE 0.65 (95% CI; 0.81 – 1.08) and 0.94(95% CI; 0.79 – 1.04). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that PFS and DFS were the most important mediators of the OS with nimotuzumab to weekly cisplatin-radiation in HPVNOCP.

Keywords: mediation analysis, cancer data, survival, NCR, HPV negative oropharyngeal

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Authors: Lubos Rojka

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The common perception of morally responsible behavior is that it presupposes freedom of choice, and that free decisions and actions are not determined by natural events, but by a person. In other words, the moral agent has the ability and the possibility of doing otherwise when making morally responsible decisions, and natural causal determinism cannot fully account for morally significant freedom. The incompatibility between a person’s morally significant freedom and causal determinism appears to be a natural position. Nevertheless, some of the most influential philosophical theories on moral responsibility are compatibilist or semi-compatibilist, and they exclude the requirement of alternative possibilities, which contradicts the claims of classical incompatibilism. The compatibilists often employ Frankfurt-style thought experiments to prove their theory. The goal of this paper is to examine the role of imaginary Frankfurt-style examples in compatibilist accounts. More specifically, the compatibilist accounts defended by John Martin Fischer and Michael McKenna will be inserted into the broader understanding of a person elaborated by Harry Frankfurt, Robert Kane and Walter Glannon. Deeper analysis reveals that the exclusion of alternative possibilities based on Frankfurt-style examples is problematic and misleading. A more comprehensive account of moral responsibility and morally significant (source) freedom requires higher order complex theories of human will and consciousness, in which rational and self-creative abilities and a real possibility to choose otherwise, at least on some occasions during a lifetime, are necessary. Theoretical moral reasons and their logical relations seem to require a sort of higher-order agent-causal incompatibilism. The ability of theoretical or abstract moral reasoning requires complex (strongly emergent) mental and conscious properties, among which an effective free will, together with first and second-order desires. Such a hierarchical theoretical model unifies reasons-responsiveness, mesh theory and emergentism. It is incompatible with physical causal determinism, because such determinism only allows non-systematic processes that may be hard to predict, but not complex (strongly) emergent systems. An agent’s effective will and conscious reflectivity is the starting point of a morally responsible action, which explains why a decision is 'up to the subject'. A free decision does not always have a complete causal history. This kind of an emergentist source hyper-incompatibilism seems to be the best direction of the search for an adequate explanation of moral responsibility in the traditional (merit-based) sense. Physical causal determinism as a universal theory would exclude morally significant freedom and responsibility in the traditional sense because it would exclude the emergence of and supervenience by the essential complex properties of human consciousness.

Keywords: consciousness, free will, determinism, emergence, moral responsibility

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study focused on early adolescent rule-breaking behavioral problems using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the rule-breaking behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a path analysis method was used to explore the correlational and causal relationships among background variables and breaking behavior variables.

Keywords: ASEBA, rule-breaking, path analysis, early adolescent

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo M., Leonard Atuhaire, Peter Clever Rutayisire

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The main aim of this study was to establish the differences in both the determinants of stunting and the causal mechanism through which the identified determinants influence stunting amongst male and female under-fives in Uganda. Literature shows that male children below the age of five years are at a higher risk of being stunted than their female counterparts. Specifically, studies in Uganda indicate that being a male child is positively associated with stunting, while being a female is negatively associated with stunting. Data for 904 males and 829 females under-fives was extracted form UDHS-2016 survey dataset. Key variables for this study were identified and used in generating relevant models and paths. Structural equation modeling techniques were used in their generalized form (GSEM). The generalized nature necessitated specifying both the family and link functions for each response variable in the system of the model. The sex of the child (b4) was used as a grouping factor and the height for age (HAZ) scores were used to construct the status for stunting of under-fives. The estimated models and path clearly indicated that the set of underlying factors that influence male and female under-fives respectively was different and the path through which they influence stunting was different. However, some of the determinants that influenced stunting amongst male under-fives also influenced stunting amongst the female under-fives. To reduce the stunting problem to the desirable state, it is important to consider the multifaceted and complex nature of the risk factors that influence stunting amongst the under-fives but, more importantly, consider the different sex-specific factors and their causal mechanism or paths through which they influence stunting.

Keywords: stunting, underfives, sex of the child, GSEM, causal mechanism

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Authors: Nidhal Mgadmi, Abdelhafidh Othmani

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This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the current war between Russia and Ukraine. The econometric investigation runs from February 24, 2022, to April 12, 2023, focusing on seven stock market indices (S&P500, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei, TSX, MOEX, and PFTS) and seven cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litcoin, Dash, Ripple, DigiByte and XEM). In this article, we try to understand how investors react to fluctuations in financial assets to seek safe havens in cryptocurrencies. We used dynamic causality to detect a possible causal relationship in the short term and seven models to estimate the long-term relationship between cryptocurrencies and financial assets. The causal relationship between financial market indexes and cryptocurrency coins in the short run indicates that three famous cryptocurrencies (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, RIPPLE) and the two digital assets with minor popularity (XEM, Digibyte) are impacted by the German, Russian, and Ukrainian stock markets. In the long run, we found a positive and significate effect of the American, Canadian, French, and Ukrainian stock market indexes on Bitcoin. Thus, the stability of the traditional financial markets during the current war period can be explained on the one hand by investors’ fears of an unstable business climate, and on the other hand, by speculators’ sentiment towards new electronic products, which are perceived as hedging instruments and a safe haven in the face of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Keywords: causality, stock indices, cryptocurrency, war, Russia, Ukraine

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Authors: Rose Branch-Allen, John Jayachandran

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Background and purpose: Canada is a pluralistic, multicultural society with an ethno-cultural composition that has been shaped over time by immigrants and their descendants. Although Canada welcomes these immigrants, many will endure hardship and assimilation difficulties. Despite these life hurdles, surveys consistently disclose high life satisfaction for all Canadians. Most research studies on Life Satisfaction/ Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) have focused on one main determinant and a variety of social demographic variables to delineate the determinants of life satisfaction. However, very few research studies examine life satisfaction from a holistic approach. In addition, we need to understand the causal pathways leading to life satisfaction, and develop theories that explain why certain variables differentially influence the different components of SWB. The aim this study was to utilize a holistic approach to construct a causal model and identify major determinants of life satisfaction. Data and measures: This study utilized data from the General Social Survey, with a sample size of 19, 597. The exogenous concepts included age, gender, marital status, household size, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, location, immigration status, religiosity, and neighborhood. The intervening concepts included health, social contact, leisure, enjoyment, work-family balance, quality time, domestic labor, and sense of belonging. The endogenous concept life satisfaction was measured by multiple indicators (Cronbach’s alpha = .83). Analysis: Several multiple regression models were run sequentially to estimate path coefficients for the causal model. Results: Overall, above average satisfaction with life was reported for respondents with specific socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle characteristics. With regard to exogenous factors, respondents who were female, younger, married, from high socioeconomic status background, born in Canada, very religious, and demonstrated high level of neighborhood interaction had greater satisfaction with life. Similarly, intervening concepts suggested respondents had greater life satisfaction if they had better health, more social contact, less time on passive leisure activities and more time on active leisure activities, more time with family and friends, more enjoyment with volunteer activities, less time on domestic labor and a greater sense of belonging to the community. Conclusions and Implications: Our results suggest that a holistic approach is necessary for establishing determinants of life satisfaction, and that life satisfaction is not merely comprised of positive or negative affect rather understanding the causal process of life satisfaction. Even though, most of our findings are consistent with previous studies, a significant number of causal connections contradict some of the findings in literature today. We have provided possible explanation for these anomalies researchers encounter in studying life satisfaction and policy implications.

Keywords: causal model, holistic approach, life satisfaction, socio-demographic variables, subjective well-being

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Authors: Misagh Faezipour

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This paper explores the effects of screen time on children from a systems engineering perspective. We reviewed literature from several related works on the effects of screen time on children to explore all factors and interrelationships that would impact children that are subjected to using long screen times. Factors such as kids' age, parent attitudes, parent screen time influence, amount of time kids spend with technology, psychosocial and physical health outcomes, reduced mental imagery, problem-solving and adaptive thinking skills, obesity, unhealthy diet, depressive symptoms, health problems, disruption in sleep behavior, decrease in physical activities, problematic relationship with mothers, language, social, emotional delays, are examples of some factors that could be either a cause or effect of screen time. A systems engineering perspective is used to explore all the factors and factor relationships that were discovered through literature. A causal model is used to illustrate a graphical representation of these factors and their relationships. Through the causal model, the factors with the highest impacts can be realized. Future work would be to develop a system dynamics model to view the dynamic behavior of the relationships and observe the impact of changes in different factors in the model. The different changes on the input of the model, such as a healthier diet or obesity rate, would depict the effect of the screen time in the model and portray the effect on the children’s health and other factors that are important, which also works as a decision support tool.

Keywords: children, causal model, screen time, systems engineering, system dynamics

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Authors: Maitreyee Datta

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Buddhist lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa pramā is not the result of the causal analysis of the genesis of it. Naiyāyikas, on the other hand, has provided the lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa in terms of the causal analysis of it. Thus, though in these two philosophical systems philosophers have discussed in detail the nature of pratyakṣa pramā (perception), yet their treatments and understanding of it vary according to their respective understanding of pramā and prmāņa and their relationship. In Nyāya school, the definition (lakṣņa) of perception (pratyakṣa) has been given in terms of the process by virtue of which it has been generated. Thus, Naiyāyikas were found to provide a causal account of perception (pratyakṣa) by virtue of their lakṣaņa of it. But in Buddhist epistemology perception has been defined by virtue of the nature of perceptual knowledge (pratyakṣa pramā) which is devoid of any vikalpa or cognition. These two schools differed due to their different metaphysical presuppositions which determine their epistemological pursuits. The Naiyāyikas admitted pramā and pramāņa as separate events and they have taken pramāņa to be the cause of pramā. These presuppositions enabled them to provide a lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa pramā in terms of the causes by which it is generated. Why did the Buddhist epistemologists define perception by the unique nature of perceptual knowledge instead of the process by which it is generated? This question will be addressed and dealt with in the present paper. In doing so, the unique purpose of Buddhist philosophy will be identified which will enable us to find out an answer to the above question. This enterprise will also reveal the close relationship among some basic Buddhist presuppositions like pratityasamutpādavāda and kṣaņikavāda with Buddhist epistemological positions. In other words, their distinctive notion of pramā (knowledge) indicates their unique epistemological position which is found to comply with their basic philosophical presuppositions. The first section of the paper will present the Buddhist epistemologists’ lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa. The analysis of the lakṣaņa will be given in clear terms to reveal the nature of pratyakṣa as an instance of pramā. In the second section, an effort will be made to identify the uniqueness of such a definition. Here an articulation will be made in which the relationship among basic Buddhist presuppositions and their unique epistemological positions are determined. In the third section of the paper, an effort will be made to compare Nyāya epistemologist’s position regarding pratyakṣa with that of the Buddhist epistemologist.

Keywords: laksana, prama, pramana, pratyksa

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Authors: Shahanaz Aboobacker Ahmed, P. Ajilal

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We live in the ‘age of migration’ where global migration and repatriation is the stark reality of human lives in the contemporary world. With increasing number of people migrating and repatriating for education, work, or crisis situations, there is an ever-growing need for active research into the effects of repatriation and migration on the psychological well-being of the migrants and expatriates. Moving across borders has resulted in individual developing a third culture and hence such individual are known as Third Culture Kids (TCKs). The aim of the study was to understand the difference in the resilience between Third Culture Kids and Non- Third Culture Kids and gain an insight into how resilience is shaped by migratory experience. The sample comprised of 200 participants that included 100 TCKs and 100 Non-TCKs. The participants were in the age range group of 17-26 years and were pursuing their college education in various parts of the world. The variable of Resilience was measured using the Resilience scale developed and standardized on TCK population which included subtests; Emotional Regulation, Impulse Control, Causal Analysis, Self Efficacy, Realistic Optimism, Empathy and Reaching Out. The data was obtained from in-person sessions and over Skype. The data was analyzed using independent sample t-tests. Results indicated that there is a significant difference between TCKs and Non-TCKs on Impulse Control, Causal Analysis, Realistic Optimism, Empathy and Reaching Out. However, no significant difference was found on the sub-variables of Self Efficacy and Emotional Regulation.

Keywords: third culture kids, resilience, immigration, cross-cultural psychology, repatriation, emotional maturity, emotional regulation, impulse control, causal analysis, self-efficacy, realistic optimism, empathy, reaching out

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Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

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This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, Granger causality

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Authors: Bernard Igoche Igoche, Olumuyiwa Matthew, Peter Bednar, Alexander Gegov

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This study presents an ontology-driven approach for knowledge discovery and validation from admission databases in Nigerian polytechnic institutions. The research aims to address the challenges of extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of admission data and utilizing them for decision-making and process improvement. The proposed methodology combines the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process with a structural causal model (SCM) ontological framework. The admission database of Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo (Benpoly) is used as a case study. The KDD process is employed to mine and distill knowledge from the database, while the SCM ontology is designed to identify and validate the important features of the admission process. The SCM validation is performed using the conditional independence test (CIT) criteria, and an algorithm is developed to implement the validation process. The identified features are then used for machine learning (ML) modeling and prediction of admission status. The results demonstrate the adequacy of the SCM ontological framework in representing the admission process and the high predictive accuracies achieved by the ML models, with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) achieving 92% accuracy. The study concludes that the proposed ontology-driven approach contributes to the advancement of educational data mining and provides a foundation for future research in this domain.

Keywords: admission databases, educational data mining, machine learning, ontology-driven knowledge discovery, polytechnic education, structural causal model

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Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono

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Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

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Authors: Rudra P. Pradhan

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This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.

Keywords: energy consumption, financial development, FATF countries, Panel VECM

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Authors: Francesco Ceresia

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Workplace aggression is broadly recognized as a main work-related risk for healthcare organizations the world over. Scholars underlined that nonfatal workplace aggressions can be also produced by Type II workplace aggression, that occur when the aggressor has a legitimate relationship with the organization and commits an act of hostility while being served or cared for by members of the organization. Several reviews and meta-analysis highlighted the main antecedents and consequences of Type II verbal and physical workplace aggression in the healthcare sector, also focusing on its economic and psychosocial costs. However, some scholars emphasized the need for a systemic and multi-factorial approach to deeply understand and effectively respond to such kind of aggression. The main aim of the study is to propose a qualitative model of Type II workplace aggression in a health care organization in accordance with the system thinking and multi-factorial perspective. A case study research approach, conducted in an Italian non-hospital healthcare organization, is presented. Two main data collection methods have been adopted: individual and group interviews with a sample (N = 24) of physicians, nurses and clericals. A causal loop diagram (CLD) that describes the main causal relationships among the key-variables of the proposed model has been outlined. The main feedback loops and the causal link polarities have been also defined to fully describe the structure underlining the Type II workplace aggression phenomenon. The proposed qualitative model shows how the Type II workplace aggression is related with burnout, work performance, job satisfaction, turnover intentions, work motivation and emotional dissonance. Finally, strategies and policies to reduce the strength of workplace aggression’s drivers are suggested.

Keywords: healthcare, system thinking, work motivation, workplace aggression

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Authors: John McDowall, Lucy Lightfoot

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Stigma constitutes a significant barrier to the recovery and social integration of individuals affected by mental illness. Although there is some debate in the literature regarding the definition and utility of stigma as a concept, it is widely accepted that it comprises three components: stereotypical beliefs, prejudicial reactions, and discrimination. Stereotypical beliefs describe the cognitive knowledge-based component of stigma, referring to beliefs (often negative) about members of a group that is based on cultural and societal norms (e.g. ‘People with anxiety are just weak’). Prejudice refers to the affective/evaluative component of stigma and describes the endorsement of negative stereotypes and the resulting negative emotional reactions (e.g. ‘People with anxiety are just weak, and they frustrate me’). Discrimination refers to the behavioural component of stigma, which is arguably the most problematic, as it exerts a direct effect on the stigmatized person and may lead people to behave in a hostile or avoidant way towards them (i.e. refusal to hire them). Research exploring anti-stigma initiatives focus primarily on an educational approach, with the view that accurate information will replace misconceptions and decrease stigma. Many approaches take a biogenetic stance, emphasising brain and biochemical deficits - the idea being that ‘mental illness is an illness like any other.' While this approach tends to effectively reduce blame, it has also demonstrated negative effects such as increasing prognostic pessimism, the desire for social distance and perceptions of stereotypes. In the present study 144 participants were split into three groups and read one of three vignettes presenting causal explanations for Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD): One explanation emphasized biogenetic factors as being important in the etiology of GAD, another emphasised psychosocial factors (e.g. aversive life events, poverty, etc.), and a third stressed the adaptive features of the disorder from an evolutionary viewpoint. A variety of measures tapping the various components of stigma were administered following the vignettes. No difference in stigma measures as a function of causal explanation was found. People who had contact with mental illness in the past were significantly less stigmatising across a wide range of measures, but this did not interact with the type of causal explanation.

Keywords: generalised anxiety disorder, discrimination, prejudice, stigma

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Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

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What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

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Authors: Eftychia Kessopoulou, Styliani Xanthopoulou, Ypatia Theodorakioglou, George Tsiotras, Katerina Gotzamani

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Public sector managers frequently herald that implementing best practices as a set of standards, may lead to superior organizational performance. However, recent research questions the objectification of best practices, highlighting: a) the inability of public sector organizations to develop innovative administrative practices, as well as b) the adoption of stereotypical renowned practices inculcated in the public sector by international governance bodies. The process through which organizations construe what a best practice is, still remains a black box that is yet to be investigated, given the trend of continuous changes in public sector performance, as well as the burgeoning interest of sharing popular administrative practices put forward by international bodies. This study aims to describe and understand how organizational best practices are constructed by public sector performance management teams, like benchmarkers, during the benchmarking-mediated performance improvement process and what mechanisms enable this construction. A critical realist action research methodology is employed, starting from a description of various approaches on best practice nature when a benchmarking-mediated performance improvement initiative, such as the Common Assessment Framework, is applied. Firstly, we observed the benchmarker’s management process of best practices in a public organization, so as to map their theories-in-use. As a second step we contextualized best administrative practices by reflecting the different perspectives emerged from the previous stage on the design and implementation of an interview protocol. We used this protocol to conduct 30 semi-structured interviews with “best practice” process owners, in order to examine their experiences and performance needs. Previous research on best practices has shown that needs and intentions of benchmarkers cannot be detached from the causal mechanisms of the various contexts in which they work. Such causal mechanisms can be found in: a) process owner capabilities, b) the structural context of the organization, and c) state regulations. Therefore, we developed an interview protocol theoretically informed in the first part to spot causal mechanisms suggested by previous research studies and supplemented it with questions regarding the provision of best practice support from the government. Findings of this work include: a) a causal account of the nature of best administrative practices in the Greek public sector that shed light on explaining their management, b) a description of the various contexts affecting best practice conceptualization, and c) a description of how their interplay changed the organization’s best practice management.

Keywords: benchmarking, action research, critical realism, best practices, public sector

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Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

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Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

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Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

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Authors: Alireza Tavakoli Nia

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In order to understand the role of the injured party's fault in dividing liability, we studied its historical background. In common law, the traditional contributory negligence rule was a complete defense. Then the legislature and judicial procedure modified that rule to one of apportionment. In Islamic law, too, the Action rule was at first used when the injured party was the sole cause, but jurists expanded the scope of this rule, so this rule was used in cases where both the injured party's fault and that of the other party are involved. There are some popular approaches for apportionment of damages. Some common law countries like Britain had chosen ‘the causal potency approach’ and ‘fixed apportionment’. Islamic countries like Iran have chosen both ‘the relative blameworthiness’ and ‘equal apportionment’ approaches. The article concludes that both common law and Islamic law believe in the division of responsibility between a wrongdoer claimant and the defendant. In contrast, in the apportionment of responsibility, Islamic law mostly believes in equal apportionment that is way easier and saves time and money, but common law legal systems have chosen the causal potency approach, which is more complicated than the rival approach but is fairer.

Keywords: contributory negligence, tort law, damage apportionment, common law, Islamic law

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Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng, C. S. Wu, M. C. Tan

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It is a critical time to upgrade technology and increase value added with manufacturing skills developing and management strategies that will highly satisfy the customers need in the precision machinery global market. In recent years, the supply side, each precision machinery manufacturers in each country are facing the pressures of price reducing from the demand side voices that pushes the high-end precision machinery manufacturers adopts low-cost and high-quality strategy to retrieve the market. Because of the trend of the global market, the manufacturers must take price reducing strategies and upgrade technology of low-end machinery for differentiations to consolidate the market. By using six key success factors (KSFs), customer perceived value, customer satisfaction, customer service, product design, product effectiveness and machine structure quality are causal conditions to explore the impact of competitive advantage of the enterprise, such as overall profitability and product pricing power. This research uses key success paths (KSPs) approach and f/s QCA software to explore various combinations of causal relationships, so as to fully understand the performance level of KSFs and business objectives in order to achieve competitive advantage. In this study, the combination of a causal relationships, are called Key Success Paths (KSPs). The key success paths guide the enterprise to achieve the specific outcomes of business. The findings of this study indicate that there are thirteen KSPs to achieve the overall profitability, sixteen KSPs to achieve the product pricing power and seventeen KSPs to achieve both overall profitability and pricing power of the enterprise. The KSPs provide the directions of resources integration and allocation, improve utilization efficiency of limited resources to realize the continuous vision of the enterprise.

Keywords: precision machinery industry, key success factors (KSFs), key success paths (KSPs), overall profitability, product pricing power, competitive advantages

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Authors: Yong Chen

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To understand the detailed molecular mechanisms of memory formation in engram cells is one of the most fundamental questions in neuroscience. Recent single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) and single-nucleus RNA-seq (snRNA-seq) techniques have allowed us to explore the sparsely activated engram ensembles, enabling access to the molecular mechanisms that underlie experience-dependent memory formation and consolidation. However, the absence of specific and powerful computational methods to detect memory-related genes (modules) and their regulatory relationships in the sc/snRNA-seq datasets has strictly limited the analysis of underlying mechanisms and memory coding principles in mammalian brains. Here, we present a deep-learning method named SCENTBOX, to detect memory-related gene modules and causal regulatory relationships among themfromsc/snRNA-seq datasets. SCENTBOX first constructs codifferential expression gene network (CEGN) from case versus control sc/snRNA-seq datasets. It then detects the highly correlated modules of differential expression genes (DEGs) in CEGN. The deep network embedding and attention-based convolutional neural network strategies are employed to precisely detect regulatory relationships among DEG genes in a module. We applied them on scRNA-seq datasets of TRAP; Ai14 mouse neurons with fear memory and detected not only known memory-related genes, but also the modules and potential causal regulations. Our results provided novel regulations within an interesting module, including Arc, Bdnf, Creb, Dusp1, Rgs4, and Btg2. Overall, our methods provide a general computational tool for processing sc/snRNA-seq data from case versus control studie and a systematic investigation of fear-memory-related gene modules.

Keywords: sc/snRNA-seq, memory formation, deep learning, gene module, causal inference

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Authors: Mahvish Anwaar

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Research Question: In this paper, we explore the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Research Findings: The unbalanced panel data starting from 2000 to 2018 is collected to analyze the causality among banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. The main focus of the study is to check the direction of causality among selected variables. The results of the study support the demand following, supply leading, feedback, and neutrality hypothesis conditional to different measures of banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Theoretical Implication: Jayakumar, Pradhan, Dash, Maradana, and Gaurav (2018) proposed a theoretical model of the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth by using different indicators. So, we empirically test the proposed indicators in our study. This study makes a contribution to the literature by showing the defined relationship between developing and developed countries. Policy Implications: The study covers various policy implications regarding investors to analyze how to properly manage their finances, and government agencies will take help from the present study to find the best and most suitable policies by examining how the economy can grow concerning its finances.

Keywords: competition, stability, economic growth, vector auto-regression, granger causality

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Authors: Davoud Maleki

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Today, education and investment in human capital is a long-term investment without which the economy will be stagnant Stayed. Higher education represents a type of investment in human resources by providing and improving knowledge, skills and Attitudes help economic development. Providing efficient human resources by increasing the efficiency and productivity of people and on the other hand with Expanding the boundaries of knowledge and technology and promoting technology such as the responsibility of training human resources and increasing productivity and efficiency in High specialized levels are the responsibility of universities. Therefore, the university plays an infrastructural role in economic development and growth because education by creating skills and expertise in people and improving their ability.In recent decades, Iran's higher education system has been faced with many problems, therefore, scholars have looked for it is to identify and validate the causal factors affecting the responsiveness and productivity of non-governmental universities. The data in the qualitative part is the result of semi-structured interviews with 25 senior and middle managers working in the units It was Islamic Azad University of Tehran province, which was selected by theoretical sampling method. In data analysis, stepwise method and Analytical techniques of Strauss and Corbin (1992) were used. After determining the central category (answering for the sake of the beneficiaries) and using it in order to bring the categories, expressions and ideas that express the relationships between the main categories and In the end, six main categories were identified as causal factors affecting the university's responsiveness and productivity.They are: 1- Scientism 2- Human resources 3- Creating motivation in the university 4- Development based on needs assessment 5- Teaching process and Learning 6- University quality evaluation. In order to validate the response model obtained from the qualitative stage, a questionnaire The questionnaire was prepared and the answers of 146 students of Master's degree and Doctorate of Islamic Azad University located in Tehran province were received. Quantitative data in the form of descriptive data analysis, first and second stage factor analysis using SPSS and Amos23 software were analyzed. The findings of the research indicated the relationship between the central category and the causal factors affecting the response The results of the model test in the quantitative stage confirmed the generality of the conceptual model.

Keywords: accountability, productivity, non-governmental, universities, foundation data theory

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Authors: Anne Davies

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Numerous students matriculating into university programs are surprised to find they are underprepared for the academic challenges of undergraduate studies. In many cases, they are unaware of their weaknesses as a scholar and unsure of how to develop their skills to succeed academically. Hypothesis: Early proactive intervention from faculty and staff members can mitigate academic issues and promote better student success outcomes. Method: After three weeks in their first semester, first-year students struggling-academically were recruited to attend individual weekly remediation sessions to develop effective learning practices. A causal-comparative methodology was used to evaluate their progress as compared to prior students with similar academic performances. Observations: Students welcomed the intervention from faculty and staff to remediate their individual needs. Those who received help in the third week had better outcomes than previous students with comparable performances who did not receive any interventional support. At the end of the semester, most students were back on track to complete their chosen degree programs. Conclusions: Early intervention by faculty and staff can improve the success of students in maintaining their status in their programs. In the future, this program will be incorporated into all first-year experience courses.

Keywords: Academic outcomes, program retention, remediation, undergraduate students

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Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

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Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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Authors: Ricardo Schnug

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This paper puts the transnational crime of human trafficking in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa and its quickly growing youth bulge. By mapping recent and concurrent trends and emerging issues, it explores the implications that it has not only for the region itself but also for the greater global dynamics of the issue. Through the application of Causal Layered Analysis to various alternative future scenarios as well as the identification of the core narrative surrounding the international discourse, it is possible to understand more deeply the forces that underlie future trafficking and what change becomes possible. With the provision of a reconstructed narrative that avoids the current blind spots, this research points out the need for a new and organic leadership paradigm that allows for a more holistic and future-oriented inquiry about socio-economic and political change and what it entails for a transnational crime such as human trafficking. 'Ubuntu' as a social and leadership philosophy then, provides the principles needed for creating this path towards a truly preferred future. Furthermore, this paper inspires follow-up research and the continuous monitoring and transdisciplinary research of this region’s demographic emergence as well as its possible consequences that have been explored in this inquiry.

Keywords: causal layered analysis, emerging issues, human trafficking, scenarios, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu, Chenguang Wang, Xinming Tu

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This article analyzes the causal effects of informal care, mental health, and physical health on falls and other accidents (e.g. traffic accidents) among elderly people. To purge potential reversal causal effects, e.g., past accidents induce more future informal care, we use two-stage least squares to identify the impacts. By using longitudinal data from a representative national China Health and retirement longitudinal study of people aged 45 and older in China, our findings indicate that informal care decreases while poor health conditions increase the occurrence of accidents. We also find heterogeneous impacts on the occurrence of accidents, varying by gender, urban status, and past accident history. Our findings suggest the following three policy implications. First, policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account. Second, ease of birth policy and postponed retirement policy are urgent to meet the demand of informal care. Third, medical policies should attach great importance to not only physical health but also mental health of elderly parents especially for older people with accident history.

Keywords: accident, China, fall, informal care, mental health, physical health

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Authors: Davoud Maleki, Neda Zamani

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The present study aims at exploring the effective accountability model of Islamic Azad University using a qualitative approach of grounded theory. The data of this study were obtained from semi-structured interviews with 25 professors and scholars in Islamic Azad University of Tehran who were selected by theoretical sampling method. In the data analysis, the stepwise method and Strauss and Corbin analytical methods (1992) were used. After identification of the main component (balanced response to stakeholders’ needs) and using it to bring the categories together, expressions and ideas representing the relationships between the main and subcomponents, and finally, the revealed components were categorized into six dimensions of the paradigm model, with the relationships among them, including causal conditions (7 components), main component (balanced response to stakeholders’ needs), strategies (5 components), environmental conditions (5 components), intervention features (4 components), and consequences (3 components). Research findings show an exploratory model for describing the relationships between causal conditions, main components, accountability strategies, environmental conditions, university environmental features, and that consequences.

Keywords: accountability, effectiveness, Islamic Azad University, grounded theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 79