Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1036

Search results for: causal loop diagram

1036 UML Model for Double-Loop Control Self-Adaptive Braking System

Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim


In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption, we can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, self-adaptive, UML, vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 291
1035 Paradox of Business Strategic toward Sustainable Business: A Case Study of Hijab Fashion in Bandung

Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono


Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

Procedia PDF Downloads 226
1034 Causal Modeling of the Glucose-Insulin System in Type-I Diabetic Patients

Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz


In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

Procedia PDF Downloads 255
1033 Governance Factors of Sustainable Stormwater Management: A Comparative Study of Case Cities in China and Sweden

Authors: Xiujuan Qiao


Cities worldwide are increasingly adopting sustainable stormwater solutions such as using green infrastructure to mitigate challenges related to stormwater, e.g., pluvial flooding, and stormwater pollution. Barriers caused by governance factors have been identified as the main reason for the slow pace of sustainable stormwater management implementation. In this study, we examined governance factors influencing local implementation in four case cities: Lund and Malmö, Sweden, and Xi’xian New Area and Zhenjiang, China. Based on systems thinking of interrelations between previously identified influencing governance factors in sustainable stormwater management (SSM), we developed a causal loop diagram (SSM-CLD) and used it to analyze 23 semi-structured interviews with local government officers in the four case cities. Based on the results, we created one SSM-CLD for each country and analyzed the main differences between these four SSM-CLDs. The results revealed that differences in governance structures can lead to differences in the influencing governance factors. In top-down political systems, e.g., China, the role of national policy in setting local leaders’ priorities is significant for SSM implementation. In political systems with more power devolved to local governments, e.g., Sweden, public awareness and local government politicians’ priorities are important for SSM implementation. Acquiring funding for long-term maintenance was identified as a challenge in all four cities studied. These results are relevant for policymakers, local government departments, consultancy companies, and researchers seeking a better understanding of how governance factors influence sustainable stormwater management.

Keywords: sustainable stormwater management, causal loop diagram, governance structures, local government priorities, public awareness, maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
1032 From User's Requirements to UML Class Diagram

Authors: Zeineb Ben Azzouz, Wahiba Ben Abdessalem Karaa


The automated extraction of UML class diagram from natural language requirements is a highly challenging task. Many approaches, frameworks and tools have been presented in this field. Nonetheless, the experiments of these tools have shown that there is no approach that can work best all the time. In this context, we propose a new accurate approach to facilitate the automatic mapping from textual requirements to UML class diagram. Our new approach integrates the best properties of statistical Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to reduce ambiguity when analysing natural language requirements text. In addition, our approach follows the best practices defined by conceptual modelling experts to determine some patterns indispensable for the extraction of basic elements and concepts of the class diagram. Once the relevant information of class diagram is captured, a XMI document is generated and imported with a CASE tool to build the corresponding UML class diagram.

Keywords: class diagram, user’s requirements, XMI, software engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 388
1031 Causal Relation Identification Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Knowledge Based Features

Authors: Tharini N. de Silva, Xiao Zhibo, Zhao Rui, Mao Kezhi


Causal relation identification is a crucial task in information extraction and knowledge discovery. In this work, we present two approaches to causal relation identification. The first is a classification model trained on a set of knowledge-based features. The second is a deep learning based approach training a model using convolutional neural networks to classify causal relations. We experiment with several different convolutional neural networks (CNN) models based on previous work on relation extraction as well as our own research. Our models are able to identify both explicit and implicit causal relations as well as the direction of the causal relation. The results of our experiments show a higher accuracy than previously achieved for causal relation identification tasks.

Keywords: causal realtion extraction, relation extracton, convolutional neural network, text representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 438
1030 A Strategic Perspective on a Qualitative Model of Type II Workplace Aggression in Healthcare Sector

Authors: Francesco Ceresia


Workplace aggression is broadly recognized as a main work-related risk for healthcare organizations the world over. Scholars underlined that nonfatal workplace aggressions can be also produced by Type II workplace aggression, that occur when the aggressor has a legitimate relationship with the organization and commits an act of hostility while being served or cared for by members of the organization. Several reviews and meta-analysis highlighted the main antecedents and consequences of Type II verbal and physical workplace aggression in the healthcare sector, also focusing on its economic and psychosocial costs. However, some scholars emphasized the need for a systemic and multi-factorial approach to deeply understand and effectively respond to such kind of aggression. The main aim of the study is to propose a qualitative model of Type II workplace aggression in a health care organization in accordance with the system thinking and multi-factorial perspective. A case study research approach, conducted in an Italian non-hospital healthcare organization, is presented. Two main data collection methods have been adopted: individual and group interviews with a sample (N = 24) of physicians, nurses and clericals. A causal loop diagram (CLD) that describes the main causal relationships among the key-variables of the proposed model has been outlined. The main feedback loops and the causal link polarities have been also defined to fully describe the structure underlining the Type II workplace aggression phenomenon. The proposed qualitative model shows how the Type II workplace aggression is related with burnout, work performance, job satisfaction, turnover intentions, work motivation and emotional dissonance. Finally, strategies and policies to reduce the strength of workplace aggression’s drivers are suggested.

Keywords: healthcare, system thinking, work motivation, workplace aggression

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
1029 Spatial Behavioral Model-Based Dynamic Data-Driven Diagram Information Model

Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen


Diagram and drawing are important ways to communicate and the reproduce of architectural design, Due to the development of information and communication technology, the professional thinking of architecture and interior design are also change rapidly. In development process of design, diagram always play very important role. This study is based on diagram theories, observe and record interaction between man and objects, objects and space, and space and time in a modern nuclear family. Construct a method for diagram to systematically and visualized describe the space plan of a modern nuclear family toward a intelligent design, to assist designer to retrieve information and check/review event pattern of past and present.

Keywords: digital diagram, information model, context aware, data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
1028 Mathematical Modelling and Parametric Study of Water Based Loop Heat Pipe for Ground Application

Authors: Shail N. Shah, K. K. Baraya, A. Madhusudan Achari


Loop Heat Pipe is a passive two-phase heat transfer device which can be used without any external power source to transfer heat from source to sink. The main aim of this paper is to have modelling of water-based LHP at varying heat loads. Through figures, how the fluid flow occurs within the loop has been explained. Energy Balance has been done in each section. IC (Iterative Convergence) scheme to find out the SSOT (Steady State Operating Temperature) has been developed. It is developed using Dev C++. To best of the author’s knowledge, hardly any detail is available in the open literature about how temperature distribution along the loop is to be evaluated. Results for water-based loop heat pipe is obtained and compared with open literature and error is found within 4%. Parametric study has been done to see the effect of different parameters on pressure drop and SSOT at varying heat loads.

Keywords: loop heat pipe, modelling of loop heat pipe, parametric study of loop heat pipe, functioning of loop heat pipe

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1027 Exact Phase Diagram of High-TC Superconductors

Authors: Abid Boudiar


We propose a simple model to obtain an exact expression of Tc/(Tc,max) for the temperature-doping phase diagram of superconducting cuprates. We showed that our model predicted most phase diagram scenario. We found the exact special doping points p(opt), p(qcp) and an accurate E(g,max). Some other properties such as the stripes length 100.1°A and the energy gap in cuprates chain 6meV can also be calculated exactly. Another interesting consequence of this simple picture is the new magic numbers and the ability to express everything using a (Tc,p) diagram via the golden ratio.

Keywords: superconducting cuprates, phase, pseudogap, hole doping, strips, golden ratio, soliton

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
1026 A Generative Adversarial Framework for Bounding Confounded Causal Effects

Authors: Yaowei Hu, Yongkai Wu, Lu Zhang, Xintao Wu


Causal inference from observational data is receiving wide applications in many fields. However, unidentifiable situations, where causal effects cannot be uniquely computed from observational data, pose critical barriers to applying causal inference to complicated real applications. In this paper, we develop a bounding method for estimating the average causal effect (ACE) under unidentifiable situations due to hidden confounders. We propose to parameterize the unknown exogenous random variables and structural equations of a causal model using neural networks and implicit generative models. Then, with an adversarial learning framework, we search the parameter space to explicitly traverse causal models that agree with the given observational distribution and find those that minimize or maximize the ACE to obtain its lower and upper bounds. The proposed method does not make any assumption about the data generating process and the type of the variables. Experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: average causal effect, hidden confounding, bound estimation, generative adversarial learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 68
1025 3D Shape Knitting: Loop Alignment on a Surface with Positive Gaussian Curvature

Authors: C. T. Cheung, R. K. P. Ng, T. Y. Lo, Zhou Jinyun


This paper aims at manipulating loop alignment in knitting a three-dimensional (3D) shape by its geometry. Two loop alignment methods are introduced to handle a surface with positive Gaussian curvature. As weft knitting is a two-dimensional (2D) knitting mechanism that the knitting cam carrying the feeders moves in two directions only, left and right, the knitted fabric generated grows in width and length but not in depth. Therefore, a 3D shape is required to be flattened to a 2D plane with surface area preserved for knitting. On this flattened plane, dimensional measurements are taken for loop alignment. The way these measurements being taken derived two different loop alignment methods. In this paper, only plain knitted structure was considered. Each knitted loop was taken as a basic unit for loop alignment in order to achieve the required geometric dimensions, without the inclusion of other stitches which give textural dimensions to the fabric. Two loop alignment methods were experimented and compared. Only one of these two can successfully preserve the dimensions of the shape.

Keywords: 3D knitting, 3D shape, loop alignment, positive Gaussian curvature

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1024 Power Supply Feedback Regulation Loop Design Using Cadence PSpice Tool: Determining Converter Stability by Simulation

Authors: Debabrata Das


This paper explains how to design a regulation loop for a power supply circuit. It also discusses the need of a regulation loop and the improvement of a circuit with regulation loop. A sample design is used to demonstrate how to use PSpice to design feedback loop to control output voltage of a power supply and how to check if the power supply is stable or oscillatory. A sample design is made using a specific Integrated Circuit (IC) available in the PSpice library. A designer can experiment feedback loop design using Cadence Pspice tool. PSpice is easy to use, reliable, and convenient. To test a feedback loop, generally, engineers use trial and error method with the hardware which takes a lot of time and manpower. Moreover, it is expensive because component and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) may go bad. PSpice can be used by designers to test their loop designs without using hardware circuits. A designer can save time, cost, manpower and simulate his/her power supply circuit accurately before making a real hardware using this software package.

Keywords: power electronics, feedback loop, regulation, stability, pole, zero, oscillation

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
1023 Identification of Bayesian Network with Convolutional Neural Network

Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Wafa Karouche, Joseph Rynkiewicz


In this paper, we propose an alternative method to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). This method relies on a convolutional neural network (CNN classifier), which determinates the edges of the network skeleton. We train a CNN on a normalized empirical probability density distribution (NEPDF) for predicting causal interactions and relationships. We have to find the optimal Bayesian network structure for causal inference. Indeed, we are undertaking a search for pair-wise causality, depending on considered causal assumptions. In order to avoid unreasonable causal structure, we consider a blacklist and a whitelist of causality senses. We tested the method on real data to assess the influence of education on the voting intention for the extreme right-wing party. We show that, with this method, we get a safer causal structure of variables (Bayesian Network) and make to identify a variable that satisfies the backdoor criterion.

Keywords: Bayesian network, structure learning, optimal search, convolutional neural network, causal inference

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1022 Improvement of Piezoresistive Pressure Sensor Accuracy by Means of Current Loop Circuit Using Optimal Digital Signal Processing

Authors: Peter A. L’vov, Roman S. Konovalov, Alexey A. L’vov


The paper presents the advanced digital modification of the conventional current loop circuit for pressure piezoelectric transducers. The optimal DSP algorithms of current loop responses by the maximum likelihood method are applied for diminishing of measurement errors. The loop circuit has some additional advantages such as the possibility to operate with any type of resistance or reactance sensors, and a considerable increase in accuracy and quality of measurements to be compared with AC bridges. The results obtained are dedicated to replace high-accuracy and expensive measuring bridges with current loop circuits.

Keywords: current loop, maximum likelihood method, optimal digital signal processing, precise pressure measurement

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1021 Closed Loop Traffic Control System Using PLC

Authors: Chinmay Shah


The project is all about development of a close loop traffic light control system using PLC (Programmable Logic Controller). This project is divided into two parts which are hardware and software. The hardware part for this project is a model of four way junction of a traffic light. Three indicator lamps (Red, Yellow and Green) are installed at each lane for represents as traffic light signal. This traffic control model is a replica of actuated traffic control. Actuated traffic control system is a close loop traffic control system which controls the timing of the indicator lamps depending on the fluidity of traffic for a particular lane. To make it autonomous, in each lane three IR sensors are placed which helps to sense the percentage of traffic present on any particular lane. The IR Sensors and Indicator lamps are connected to LG PLC XGB series. The PLC controls every signal which is coming from the inputs (IR Sensors) to software and display to the outputs (Indicator lamps). Default timing for the indicator lamps is 30 seconds for each lane. But depending on the percentage of traffic present, if the traffic is nearly 30-35%, green lamp will be on for 10 seconds, for 65-70% traffic it will be 20 seconds, for full 100% traffic it will be on for full 30 seconds. The software part that operates with LG PLC is “XG 5000” Programmer. Using this software, the ladder logic diagram is programmed to control the traffic light base on the flow chart. At the end of this project, the traffic light system is actuated successfully by PLC.

Keywords: close loop, IR sensor, PLC, light control system

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1020 Validation and Interpretation about Precedence Diagram for Start to Finish Relationship by Graph Theory

Authors: Naoki Ohshima, Ken Kaminishi


Four types of dependencies, which are 'Finish-to-start', 'Finish-to-finish', 'Start-to-start' and 'Start-to-finish (S-F)' as logical relationship are modeled based on the definition by 'the predecessor activity is defined as an activity to come before a dependent activity in a schedule' in PMBOK. However, it is found a self-contradiction in the precedence diagram for S-F relationship by PMBOK. In this paper, author would like to validate logical relationship of S-F by Graph Theory and propose a new interpretation of the precedence diagram for S-F relationship.

Keywords: project time management, sequence activity, start-to-finish relationship, precedence diagram, PMBOK

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
1019 Causal Relationship between Corporate Governance and Financial Information Transparency: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

Authors: Maali Kachouri, Anis Jarboui


We focus on the causal relationship between governance and information transparency as well as interrelation among the various governance mechanisms. This paper employs a simultaneous equations approach to show this relationship in the Tunisian context. Based on an 8-year dataset, our sample covers 28 listed companies over 2006-2013. Our findings suggest that internal and external governance mechanisms are interdependent. Moreover, in order to analyze the causal effect between information transparency and governance mechanisms, we found evidence that information transparency tends to increase good corporate governance practices.

Keywords: simultaneous equations approach, transparency, causal relationship, corporate governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
1018 Hidden Oscillations in the Mathematical Model of the Optical Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) Costas Loop

Authors: N. V. Kuznetsov, O. A. Kuznetsova, G. A. Leonov, M. V. Yuldashev, R. V. Yuldashev


Nonlinear analysis of the phase locked loop (PLL)-based circuits is a challenging task. Thus, the simulation is widely used for their study. In this work, we consider a mathematical model of the optical Costas loop and demonstrate the limitations of simulation approach related to the existence of so-called hidden oscillations in the phase space of the model.

Keywords: optical Costas loop, mathematical model, simulation, hidden oscillation

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
1017 Study of Dermatoglyphics Pattern in Patient with Hypertension

Authors: Ajeevan Gautam, Gulam Anwer Khan, Pratibha Pokhrel


Introduction: Dermatoglyphics is the science which deals with the study of dermal ridge configuration on the digits, palms and soles. It is grooved by ridges and forms variety of configurations. The aim of the study was to identify dermal ridge patterns on fingertip of hypertensive patients and in normal population and to compare patterns among them. Methods: The subjects of the study were 130 hypertensives and 130 non-hypertensives cases of Kathmandu Valley aged between 40 to 80 years. Case history was recorded after consent finger prints were taken. Different parameters as whorl, loop, arch and composite patterns were studied and analysed. Result: It revealed, increased whorl pattern in hypertensive. It showed 65.69% whorl, 29.23% loop and 5.07% arch patterns in right hand of hypertensive people. In control, it was found to be 34.46% whorl, 58.15% loop and 5.38% arch patterns respectively. Similarly in left hand 63.69% whorl, 32% loop and 4.30% arch in hypertensive group. In control group it was 60.15% as loop, 35.69% as whorl and 15% as arch. Discussion: Based on findings of the result, it was concluded that the whorl, loop and arch patterns observed as 65.69%, 29.23% and 5.07% respectively in hypertensive cases in right hand. Similarly in left hand, it was found to be 4.30% as arch, 32% as loop and 63.69% as whorl patterns, but in normotensive subjects these patterns were recorded as 36.43%, 58.15%, 5.38% in right hand and 35.69%, 60.15%, 4.15% in left hand as whorl, loop and arch respectively.

Keywords: arch, dermatoglyphics, hypertension, loop, whorl

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
1016 Alternative General Formula to Estimate and Test Influences of Early Diagnosis on Cancer Survival

Authors: Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang


Background and purpose: Cancer diagnosis is part of a complex stochastic process, in which patients' personal and social characteristics influence the choice of diagnosing methods, diagnosing methods, in turn, influence the initial assessment of cancer stage, the initial assessment, in turn, influences the choice of treating methods, and treating methods in turn influence cancer outcomes such as cancer survival. To evaluate diagnosing methods, one needs to estimate and test the causal effect of a regime of cancer diagnosis and treatments. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to estimate and test these causal effects via point effects. The purpose of the work is to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The cancer stage has influences from earlier diagnosis as well as on subsequent treatments. As a consequence, it is highly difficult to estimate and test the causal effects via standard parameters, that is, the conditional survival given all stationary covariates, diagnosing methods, cancer stage and prognosis factors, treating methods. Instead of standard parameters, we use the point effects of cancer diagnosis and treatments to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments. We are able to use familiar methods in the framework of single-point causal inference to accomplish the task. Achievements: we have applied this method to stomach cancer survival from a clinical study in Sweden. We have studied causal effects under various regimes, including the optimal regime of diagnosis and treatments and the effect moderation of the causal effect by age and gender.

Keywords: cancer diagnosis, causal effect, point effect, G-formula, sequential causal effect

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1015 Analysis of Labor Effectiveness at Green Tea Dry Sorting Workstation for Increasing Tea Factory Competitiveness

Authors: Bayu Anggara, Arita Dewi Nugrahini, Didik Purwadi


Dry sorting workstation needs labor to produce green tea in Gambung Tea Factory. Observation results show that there is labor who are not working at the moment and doing overtime jobs to meet production targets. The measurement of the level of labor effectiveness has never been done before. The purpose of this study is to determine the level of labor effectiveness and provide recommendations for improvement based on the results of the Pareto diagram and Ishikawa diagram. The method used to measure the level of labor effectiveness is Overall Labor Effectiveness (OLE). OLE had three indicators which are availability, performance, and quality. Recommendations are made based on the results of the Pareto diagram and Ishikawa diagram for indicators that do not meet world standards. Based on the results of the study, the OLE value was 68.19%. Recommendations given to improve labor performance are adding mechanics, rescheduling rest periods, providing special training for labor, and giving rewards to labor. Furthermore, the recommendations for improving the quality of labor are procuring water content measuring devices, create material standard policies, and rescheduling rest periods.

Keywords: Ishikawa diagram, labor effectiveness, OLE, Pareto diagram

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1014 Influence of Causal beliefs on self-management in Korean patients with hypertension

Authors: Hyun-E Yeom


Patients’ views about the cause of hypertension may influence their present and proactive behaviors to regulate high blood pressure. This study aimed to examine the internal structure underlying the causal beliefs about hypertension and the influence of causal beliefs on self-care intention and medical compliance in Korean patients with hypertension. The causal beliefs of 145 patients (M age = 57.7) were assessed using the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised. An exploratory factor analysis was used to identify the factor structure of the causal beliefs, and the factors’ influence on self-care intention and medication compliance was analyzed using multiple and logistic regression analyses. The four-factor structure including psychological, fate-related, risk and habitual factors was identified and the psychological factor was the most representative component of causal beliefs. The risk and fate-related factors were significant factors affecting lower intention to engage in self-care and poor compliance with medication regimens, respectively. The findings support the critical role of causal beliefs about hypertension in driving patients’ current and future self-care behaviors. This study highlights the importance of educational interventions corresponding to patients’ awareness of hypertension for improving their adherence to a healthy lifestyle and medication regimens.

Keywords: hypertension, self-care, beliefs, medication compliance

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
1013 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin


Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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1012 Numerical Investigation of Nanofluid Based Thermosyphon System

Authors: Kiran Kumar K., Ramesh Babu Bejjam, Atul Najan


A thermosyphon system is a heat transfer loop which operates on the basis of gravity and buoyancy forces. It guarantees a good reliability and low maintenance cost as it does not involve any mechanical pump. Therefore it can be used in many industrial applications such as refrigeration and air conditioning, electronic cooling, nuclear reactors, geothermal heat extraction, etc. But flow instabilities and loop configuration are the major problems in this system. Several previous researchers studied that stabilities can be suppressed by using nanofluids as loop fluid. In the present study a rectangular thermosyphon loop with end heat exchangers are considered for the study. This configuration is more appropriate for many practical applications such as solar water heater, geothermal heat extraction, etc. In the present work, steady-state analysis is carried out on thermosyphon loop with parallel flow coaxial heat exchangers at heat source and heat sink. In this loop nano fluid is considered as the loop fluid and water is considered as the external fluid in both hot and cold heat exchangers. For this analysis one-dimensional homogeneous model is developed. In this model, conservation equations like conservation of mass, momentum, energy are discretized using finite difference method. A computer code is written in MATLAB to simulate the flow in thermosyphon loop. A comparison in terms of heat transfer is made between water and nano fluid as working fluids in the loop.

Keywords: heat exchanger, heat transfer, nanofluid, thermosyphon loop

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1011 Effect of Loop Diameter, Height and Insulation on a High Temperature CO2 Based Natural Circulation Loop

Authors: S. Sadhu, M. Ramgopal, S. Bhattacharyya


Natural circulation loops (NCLs) are buoyancy driven flow systems without any moving components. NCLs have vast applications in geothermal, solar and nuclear power industry where reliability and safety are of foremost concern. Due to certain favorable thermophysical properties, especially near supercritical regions, carbon dioxide can be considered as an ideal loop fluid in many applications. In the present work, a high temperature NCL that uses supercritical carbon dioxide as loop fluid is analysed. The effects of relevant design and operating variables on loop performance are studied. The system operating under steady state is modelled taking into account the axial conduction through loop fluid and loop wall, and heat transfer with surroundings. The heat source is considered to be a heater with controlled heat flux and heat sink is modelled as an end heat exchanger with water as the external cold fluid. The governing equations for mass, momentum and energy conservation are normalized and are solved numerically using finite volume method. Results are obtained for a loop pressure of 90 bar with the power input varying from 0.5 kW to 6.0 kW. The numerical results are validated against the experimental results reported in the literature in terms of the modified Grashof number (Grm) and Reynolds number (Re). Based on the results, buoyancy and friction dominated regions are identified for a given loop. Parametric analysis has been done to show the effect of loop diameter, loop height, ambient temperature and insulation. The results show that for the high temperature loop, heat loss to surroundings affects the loop performance significantly. Hence this conjugate heat transfer between the loop and surroundings has to be considered in the analysis of high temperature NCLs.

Keywords: conjugate heat transfer, heat loss, natural circulation loop, supercritical carbon dioxide

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1010 The Framework of System Safety for Multi Human-in-The-Loop System

Authors: Hideyuki Shintani, Ichiro Koshijima


In Cyber Physical System (CPS), if there are a large number of persons in the process, a role of person in CPS might be different comparing with the one-man system. It is also necessary to consider how Human-in-The-Loop Cyber Physical Systems (HiTLCPS) ensure safety of each person in the loop process. In this paper, the authors discuss a system safety framework with an illustrative example with STAMP model to clarify what point for safety should be considered and what role of person in the should have.

Keywords: cyber-physical-system, human-in-the-loop, safety, STAMP model

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1009 Noise and Thermal Analyses of Memristor-Based Phase Locked Loop Integrated Circuit

Authors: Naheem Olakunle Adesina


The memristor is considered as one of the promising candidates for mamoelectronic engineering and applications. Owing to its high compatibility with CMOS, nanoscale size, and low power consumption, memristor has been employed in the design of commonly used circuits such as phase-locked loop (PLL). In this paper, we designed a memristor-based loop filter (LF) together with other components of PLL. Following this, we evaluated the noise-rejection feature of loop filter by comparing the noise levels of input and output signals of the filter. Our SPICE simulation results showed that memristor behaves like a linear resistor at high frequencies. The result also showed that loop filter blocks the high-frequency components from phase frequency detector so as to provide a stable control voltage to the voltage controlled oscillator (VCO). In addition, we examined the effects of temperature on the performance of the designed phase locked loop circuit. A critical temperature, where there is frequency drift of VCO as a result of variations in control voltage, is identified. In conclusion, the memristor is a suitable choice for nanoelectronic systems owing to a small area, low power consumption, dense nature, high switching speed, and endurance. The proposed memristor-based loop filter, together with other components of the phase locked loop, can be designed using memristive emulator and EDA tools in current CMOS technology and simulated.

Keywords: Fast Fourier Transform, hysteresis curve, loop filter, memristor, noise, phase locked loop, voltage controlled oscillator

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1008 Extended Multi-Modulus Divider for Open Loop Fractional Dividers and Fractional Multiplying Delay Locked Loops

Authors: Muhammad Swilam


Solutions for the wrong division problem of the Extended Multi-Modulus Divider (EMMD) that occurs during modulus extension (i.e. switching the modulus value between two different ranges of division ratios), in open loop fractional dividers and fractional multiplying delay locked loop, is proposed. A detailed study for the MMD with Sigma-Delta is also presented. Moreover, extensive simulations for the divider are presented to ensure and verify its functionality and compared with the conventional dividers.

Keywords: extended multi-modulus divider (EMMD), fractional multiplying delay locked loop, open loop fractional divider, sigma delta modulator

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1007 Method for Tuning Level Control Loops Based on Internal Model Control and Closed Loop Step Test Data

Authors: Arnaud Nougues


This paper describes a two-stage methodology derived from internal model control (IMC) for tuning a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller for levels or other integrating processes in an industrial environment. Focus is the ease of use and implementation speed which are critical for an industrial application. Tuning can be done with minimum effort and without the need for time-consuming open-loop step tests on the plant. The first stage of the method applies to levels only: the vessel residence time is calculated from equipment dimensions and used to derive a set of preliminary proportional-integral (PI) settings with IMC. The second stage, re-tuning in closed-loop, applies to levels as well as other integrating processes: a tuning correction mechanism has been developed based on a series of closed-loop simulations with model errors. The tuning correction is done from a simple closed-loop step test and the application of a generic correlation between observed overshoot and integral time correction. A spin-off of the method is that an estimate of the vessel residence time (levels) or open-loop process gain (other integrating process) is obtained from the closed-loop data.

Keywords: closed-loop model identification, IMC-PID tuning method, integrating process control, on-line PID tuning adaptation

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