Search results for: total floating time (TFT)

Authors: Onder Turkmen, Musa Seymen, Sali Fidan, Mustafa Paksoy

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There is a requirement for registered edible seed pumpkin suitable for eating in Turkey. A total of 81 genotypes collected from the researchers in 2005 originated from Eskisehir, Konya, Nevsehir, Tekirdag, Sakarya, Kayseri and Kirsehir provinces were utilized. The used genetic materials were brought to S5 generation by the research groups among 2006 and 2010 years. In this research, S5 stage reached in the genotype given some of the morphological features, and selection of promising genotypes generated scale were made. Results showed that the A-1 (420), A-7 (410), A-8 (420), A-32 (420), B-17 (410), B-24 (410), B-25 (420), B-33 (400), C-24 (420), C-25 (410), C-26 (410) and C-30 (420) genotypes are expected to be promising varieties.

Keywords: candidate cultivar, edible seed pumpkin, morphologic parameters, selection

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Authors: Pisut Boonkaew, Jatuporn Thongsri

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In hard disk drive manufacturing industry, the process of reducing an unnecessary part and qualifying the quality of part before assembling is important. Thus, clamp was designed and fabricated as a fixture for holding in testing process. Basically, testing by trial and error consumes a long time to improve. Consequently, the simulation was brought to improve the part and reduce the time taken. The problem is the present clamp has a low life expectancy because of the critical stress that occurred. Hence, the simulation was brought to study the behavior of stress and compressive force to improve the clamp expectancy with all probability of designs which are present up to 27 designs, which excluding the repeated designs. The probability was calculated followed by the full fractional rules of six sigma methodology which was provided correctly. The six sigma methodology is a well-structured method for improving quality level by detecting and reducing the variability of the process. Therefore, the defective will be decreased while the process capability increasing. This research focuses on the methodology of stress and fatigue reduction while compressive force still remains in the acceptable range that has been set by the company. In the simulation, ANSYS simulates the 3D CAD with the same condition during the experiment. Then the force at each distance started from 0.01 to 0.1 mm will be recorded. The setting in ANSYS was verified by mesh convergence methodology and compared the percentage error with the experimental result; the error must not exceed the acceptable range. Therefore, the improved process focuses on degree, radius, and length that will reduce stress and still remain in the acceptable force number. Therefore, the fatigue analysis will be brought as the next process in order to guarantee that the lifetime will be extended by simulating through ANSYS simulation program. Not only to simulate it, but also to confirm the setting by comparing with the actual clamp in order to observe the different of fatigue between both designs. This brings the life time improvement up to 57% compared with the actual clamp in the manufacturing. This study provides a precise and trustable setting enough to be set as a reference methodology for the future design. Because of the combination and adaptation from the six sigma method, finite element, fatigue and linear regressive analysis that lead to accurate calculation, this project will able to save up to 60 million dollars annually.

Keywords: clamp, finite element analysis, structural, six sigma, linear regressive analysis, fatigue analysis, probability

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Authors: Rebeca V. Tholen, Elaine Bundy

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Background: Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease Background: Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease (ESLD). The effects of alcoholism can cause irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and subsequent liver failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant occurs in 20-50% of patients and increases the risk for recurrent cirrhosis, organ rejection, and graft failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant has been identified as a problem among liver transplant recipients at a large urban academic transplant center in the United States. Transplantation will reverse the complications of ESLD, but it does not treat underlying alcoholism or reduce the risk of relapse after transplant. The purpose of this quality improvement project is to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse (HRAR) Scale to screen and identify patients at high-risk for alcohol relapse after receiving an LT. Methods: The HRAR Scale is a predictive tool designed to determine the severity of alcoholism and risk of relapse after transplant. The scale consists of three variables identified as having the highest predictive power for early relapse including, daily number of drinks, history of previous inpatient treatment for alcoholism, and the number of years of heavy drinking. All adult liver transplant recipients at a large urban transplant center were screened with the HRAR Scale prior to hospital discharge. A zero to two ordinal score is ranked for each variable, and the total score ranges from zero to six. High-risk scores are between three to six. Results: Descriptive statistics revealed 25 patients were newly transplanted and discharged from the hospital during an 8-week period. 40% of patients (n=10) were identified as being high-risk for relapse and 60% low-risk (n=15). The daily number of drinks were determined by alcohol content (1 drink = 15g of ethanol) and number of drinks per day. 60% of patients reported drinking 9-17 drinks per day, and 40% reported ≤ 9 drinks. 50% of high-risk patients reported drinking ≥ 25 years, 40% for 11-25 years, and 10% ≤ 11 years. For number of inpatient treatments for alcoholism, 50% received inpatient treatment one time, 20% ≥ 1, and 30% reported never receiving inpatient treatment. Findings reveal the importance and value of a validated screening tool as a more efficient method than other screening methods alone. Integration of a structured clinical tool will help guide the drinking history portion of the psychosocial assessment. Targeted interventions can be implemented for all high-risk patients. Conclusions: Our findings validate the effectiveness of utilizing the HRAR scale to screen and identify patients who are a high-risk for alcohol relapse post-LT. Recommendations to help maintain post-transplant sobriety include starting a transplant support group within the organization for all high-risk patients. (ESLD). The effects of alcoholism can cause irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and subsequent liver failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant occurs in 20-50% of patients, and increases the risk for recurrent cirrhosis, organ rejection, and graft failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant has been identified as a problem among liver transplant recipients at a large urban academic transplant center in the United States. Transplantation will reverse the complications of ESLD, but it does not treat underlying alcoholism or reduce the risk of relapse after transplant. The purpose of this quality improvement project is to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse (HRAR) Scale to screen and identify patients at high-risk for alcohol relapse after receiving a LT. Methods: The HRAR Scale is a predictive tool designed to determine severity of alcoholism and risk of relapse after transplant. The scale consists of three variables identified as having the highest predictive power for early relapse including, daily number of drinks, history of previous inpatient treatment for alcoholism, and the number of years of heavy drinking. All adult liver transplant recipients at a large urban transplant center were screened with the HRAR Scale prior to hospital discharge. A zero to two ordinal score is ranked for each variable, and the total score ranges from zero to six. High-risk scores are between three to six. Results: Descriptive statistics revealed 25 patients were newly transplanted and discharged from the hospital during an 8-week period. 40% of patients (n=10) were identified as being high-risk for relapse and 60% low-risk (n=15). The daily number of drinks were determined by alcohol content (1 drink = 15g of ethanol) and number of drinks per day. 60% of patients reported drinking 9-17 drinks per day, and 40% reported ≤ 9 drinks. 50% of high-risk patients reported drinking ≥ 25 years, 40% for 11-25 years, and 10% ≤ 11 years. For number of inpatient treatments for alcoholism, 50% received inpatient treatment one time, 20% ≥ 1, and 30% reported never receiving inpatient treatment. Findings reveal the importance and value of a validated screening tool as a more efficient method than other screening methods alone. Integration of a structured clinical tool will help guide the drinking history portion of the psychosocial assessment. Targeted interventions can be implemented for all high-risk patients. Conclusions: Our findings validate the effectiveness of utilizing the HRAR scale to screen and identify patients who are a high-risk for alcohol relapse post-LT. Recommendations to help maintain post-transplant sobriety include starting a transplant support group within the organization for all high-risk patients.

Keywords: alcoholism, liver transplant, quality improvement, substance abuse

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Authors: Folorunsho J. O., Umar M. A.

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Access to potable water supply in both the rural and urban regions of the world has been neglected, and this has severely affected man and the aesthetics of the natural environment of man. This has further worsened the issue of diseases prevalence. This study considered the effects of inadequate domestic water supply on human health in selected neighbourhoods of Lokoja. The study used descriptive statistics such as relative frequencies, percentages and inferential statistics to analyse the data obtained through the use of structured questionnaire. The results revealed that the females and male constituted 56% and 44% of the respondents respectively; 62% of the respondents married and 32% are unmarried; respondents between ages 31 and 40 years constitute majority of the study population, while respondents with tertiary education constituted 35%, and those with secondary education were 32% of the total respondents. Furthermore, civil servants constituted 40% and unemployed 16% of the total respondents. In terms of monthly income, 40% of the respondents was found to earn between ₦31,000 - 40,000 monthly. On the perception of households on the availability and adequacy of domestic water supply, the study revealed that 64.7% of the respondents have pipe-borne water as their main source of water supply, with only 28.5% out of the 64.7% have pipe-borne water supply daily. On the relationship between water supply characteristics and health status among households, the result shows that 76% of the respondents perceived a strong relationship between water supply and health status. Cumulatively, 67% of the respondents confirm that both the quality and quantity of water supplied play a critical role in determining health status of residents of the study area. The respondents also reported skin diseases (96%), diarrhoea (96%), malaria (91%), cholera (67%), dysentery (67%), and respiratory diseases (67%) as the most perceived and experienced in the area, the disease rate in the prevalence order of malaria (81%), diarrhoea (61%), skin diseases (58%), cholera (34%), dysentery (31%) and respiratory disease (14%) respectively. Finally, the results further showed how households cope with inadequate water supply with 52% of the respondents confirm that they regularly treat their water before it was deployed for domestic uses, while 35%, 26%, 25%, 10% and 4% of the 52% respectively, adopted boiling, addition of alums, filtering with fabrics, chlorination and bleaching as the preferred treatment methods. The study thus recommended policy options that will aggressively launch adequate potable water supply infrastructure in the study area.Keywords: Potable Water, Supply, Human Health, Perception, Chlorination

Keywords: potable water, human health, perception, chlorination

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Authors: M. Amanipour, J. Towfighi, E. Ganji Babakhani, M. Heidari

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Cylindrical alumina microfiltration membrane (GMITM Corporation, inside diameter=9 mm, outside diameter=13 mm, length= 50 mm) with an average pore size of 0.5 micrometer and porosity of about 0.35 was used as the support for membrane reactor. This support was soaked in boehmite sols, and the mean particle size was adjusted in the range of 50 to 500 nm by carefully controlling hydrolysis time, and calcined at 650 °C for two hours. This process was repeated with different boehmite solutions in order to achieve an intermediate layer with an average pore size of about 50 nm. The resulting substrate was then coated with a thin and dense layer of silica by counter current chemical vapour deposition (CVD) method. A boehmite sol with 10 wt.% of nickel which was prepared by a standard procedure was used to make the catalytic layer. BET, SEM, and XRD analysis were used to characterize this layer. The catalytic membrane reactor was placed in an experimental setup to evaluate the permeation and hydrogen separation performance for a steam reforming reaction. The setup consisted of a tubular module in which the membrane was fixed, and the reforming reaction occurred at the inner side of the membrane. Methane stream, diluted with nitrogen, and deionized water with a steam to carbon (S/C) ratio of 3.0 entered the reactor after the reactor was heated up to 500 °C with a specified rate of 2 °C/ min and the catalytic layer was reduced at presence of hydrogen for 2.5 hours. Nitrogen flow was used as sweep gas through the outer side of the reactor. Any liquid produced was trapped and separated at reactor exit by a cold trap, and the produced gases were analyzed by an on-line gas chromatograph (Agilent 7890A) to measure total CH₄ conversion and H₂ permeation. BET analysis indicated uniform size distribution for catalyst with average pore size of 280 nm and average surface area of 275 m².g^-1. Single-component permeation tests were carried out for hydrogen, methane, and carbon dioxide at temperature range of 500-800 °C, and the results showed almost the same permeance and hydrogen selectivity values for hydrogen as the composite membrane without catalytic layer. Performance of the catalytic membrane was evaluated by applying membranes as a membrane reactor for methane steam reforming reaction at gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) of 10,000 h⁻¹ and 2 bar. CH₄ conversion increased from 50% to 85% with increasing reaction temperature from 600 °C to 750 °C, which is sufficiently above equilibrium curve at reaction conditions, but slightly lower than membrane reactor with packed nickel catalytic bed because of its higher surface area compared to the catalytic layer.

Keywords: catalytic membrane, hydrogen, methane steam reforming, permeance

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Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway network systems play a vital role in disaster response for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such network systems can impede disaster response by disrupting transportation of rescue teams or humanitarian supplies. Therefore, emergency inspection and repair of bridges to quickly collect damage information of bridges and recover the functionality of highway networks is of paramount importance to disaster response. A widely used measure of a network’s capability to recover from disasters is resilience. To enhance highway network resilience, plenty of studies have developed various repair scheduling methods for the prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. These methods assume that repair activities are performed after the damage to a highway network is fully understood via inspection, although inspecting all bridges in a regional highway network may take days, leading to the significant delay in repairing bridges. In reality, emergency repair activities can be commenced as soon as the damage data of some bridges that are crucial to emergency response are obtained. Given that emergency bridge inspection and repair (EBIR) activities are executed simultaneously in the response phase, the real-time interactions between these activities can occur – the blockage of highways due to repair activities can affect inspection routes which in turn have an impact on emergency repair scheduling by providing real-time information on bridge damages. However, the impact of such interactions on the optimal emergency inspection routes (EIR) and emergency repair schedules (ERS) has not been discussed in prior studies. To overcome the aforementioned deficiencies, this study develops a routing and scheduling model for EBIR while accounting for real-time inspection-repair interactions to maximize highway network resilience. A stochastic, time-dependent integer program is proposed for the complex and real-time interacting EBIR problem given multiple inspection and repair teams at locations as set post-disaster. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. Computational tests are performed using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of bridge inspection and repair activities can significantly improve the highway network resilience. Moreover, the deployment of inspection and repair teams should match each other, and the network resilience will not be improved once the unilateral increase in inspection teams or repair teams exceeds a certain level. This study contributes to both knowledge and practice. First, the developed mathematical model makes it possible for capturing the impact of real-time inspection-repair interactions on inspection routing and repair scheduling and efficiently deriving optimal EIR and ERS on a large and complex highway network. Moreover, this study contributes to the organizational dimension of highway network resilience by providing optimal strategies for highway bridge management. With the decision support tool, disaster managers are able to identify the most critical bridges for disaster management and make decisions on proper inspection and repair strategies to improve highway network resilience.

Keywords: disaster management, emergency bridge inspection and repair, highway network, resilience, uncertainty

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Authors: M. Ramadan, B. Salah

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This paper introduces a framework to digitalize lean manufacturing tools to enhance smart lean-based manufacturing environments or Lean 4.0 manufacturing systems. The paper discusses the integration between lean tools and the powerful features of recent real-time data capturing systems with the help of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to develop an intelligent real-time monitoring and controlling system of production operations concerning lean targets. This integration is represented in the Lean 4.0 system called Dynamic Value Stream Mapping (DVSM). Moreover, the paper introduces the practice of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and ICT to smartly support lean tools and practices during daily production runs to keep the lean system alive and effective. This work introduces a practical description of how the lean method tools 5S, standardized work, and poka-yoke can be digitalized and smartly monitored and controlled through DVSM. A framework of the three tools has been discussed and put into practice in a German switchgear manufacturer.

Keywords: lean manufacturing, Industry 4.0, radio frequency identification, value stream mapping

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Authors: Helene Jacobson Pettersson, Linda Lill

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Demographic changes and globalization in society provide new opportunities for social work and social work education in Sweden. There has been an ambition to include these aspects into the Swedish social work education. However, the Swedish welfare state standard continued to be as affectionate as invisible starting point in discussions about people’s way of life and social problems. The aim of this study is to explore content given to ethnic relations in social work in the social work education in Sweden. Our standpoint is that the subject can be understood both from individual and structural levels, it changes over time, varies in different steering documents and differs from the perspectives of teachers and students. Our question is what content is given to ethnic relations in social work by the teachers in their strategies and teaching material. The study brings together research in the interface between education science, social work and research of international migration and ethnic relations. The presented narratives are from longer interviews with a total of 17 university teachers who teach in social work program at four different universities in Sweden. The universities have in different ways a curriculum that involves the theme of ethnic relations in social work, and the interviewed teachers are teaching and grading social workers on specific courses related to ethnic relations at undergraduate and graduate levels. Overall assesses these 17 teachers a large number of students during a semester. The questions were concerned on how the teachers handle ethnic relations in education in social work. The particular focus during the interviews has been the teacher's understanding of the documented learning objectives and content of literature and how this has implications for their teaching. What emerges is the teachers' own stories about the educational work and how they relate to the content of teaching, as well as the teaching strategies they use to promote the theme of ethnic relations in social work education. The analysis of this kind of pedagogy is that the teaching ends up at an individual level with a particular focus on the professional encounter with individuals. We can see the shortage of a critical analysis of the construction of social problems. The conclusion is that individual circumstance precedes theoretical perspective on social problems related to migration, transnational relations, globalization and social. This result has problematic implications from the perspective of sustainability in terms of ethnic diversity and integration in society. Thus these aspects have most relevance for social workers’ professional acting in social support and empowerment related activities, in supporting the social status and human rights and equality for immigrants.

Keywords: ethnic relations in Swedish social work education, teaching content, teaching strategies, educating for change, human rights and equality

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Authors: Onur Ozveri, Korkut Karabag, Cagri Keles

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It is an important issue that the occurring of production downtime and repair costs when machines fail in the machine intensive production industries. In the case of failure of more than one machine at the same time, which machines will have the priority to repair, how to determine the optimal repair time should be allotted for this machines and how to plan the resources needed to repair are the key issues. In recent years, Business Process Management (BPM) technique, bring effective solutions to different problems in business. The main feature of this technique is that it can improve the way the job done by examining in detail the works of interest. In the industries, maintenance and repair works are operating as a process and when a breakdown occurs, it is known that the repair work is carried out in a series of process. Maintenance main-process and repair sub-process are evaluated with process management technique, so it is thought that structure could bring a solution. For this reason, in an international manufacturing company, this issue discussed and has tried to develop a proposal for a solution. The purpose of this study is the implementation of maintenance and repair works which is integrated with process management technique and at the end of implementation, analyzing the maintenance related parameters like quality, cost, time, safety and spare part. The international firm that carried out the application operates in a free region in Turkey and its core business area is producing original equipment technologies, vehicle electrical construction, electronics, safety and thermal systems for the world's leading light and heavy vehicle manufacturers. In the firm primarily, a project team has been established. The team dealt with the current maintenance process again, and it has been revised again by the process management techniques. Repair process which is sub-process of maintenance process has been discussed again. In the improved processes, the ABC equipment classification technique was used to decide which machine or machines will be given priority in case of failure. This technique is a prioritization method of malfunctioned machine based on the effect of the production, product quality, maintenance costs and job security. Improved maintenance and repair processes have been implemented in the company for three months, and the obtained data were compared with the previous year data. In conclusion, breakdown maintenance was found to occur in a shorter time, with lower cost and lower spare parts inventory.

Keywords: ABC equipment classification, business process management (BPM), maintenance, repair performance

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Authors: Ananya Pappu, Sneha Mishra

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Introduction: The South Asian population experiences unique health challenges that predisposes this demographic to cardiometabolic diseases at lower BMIs. South Asians may therefore benefit from recommendations specific to their cultural needs. Here, we focus on current BMI guidelines for Asians with a discussion of South Asian dietary practices and culturally tailored interventions. By integrating traditional dietary practices with modern nutritional recommendations, this manuscript aims to highlight effective strategies to improving health outcomes among South Asians. Background: The South Asian community, including individuals from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, experiences high rates of cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and strokes. Notably, the prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease among Asians is elevated at BMIs below the WHO's standard overweight threshold. As it stands, a BMI of 25-30 kg/m² is considered overweight in non-Asians, while this cutoff is reduced to 23-27.4 kg/m² in Asians. This discrepancy can be attributed to studies which have shown different associations between BMI and health risks in Asians compared to other populations. Given these significant challenges, optimizing lifestyle management for cardiometabolic risk factors is crucial. Tailored interventions that consider cultural context seem to be the best approach for ensuring the success of both dietary and physical activity interventions in South Asian patients. Adopting a whole food, plant-based diet (WFPD) is one such strategy. The WFPD suggests that half of one meal should consist of non-starchy vegetables. In the South Asian diet, this includes traditional vegetables such as okra, tindora, eggplant, and leafy greens including amaranth, collards, chard, and mustards. A quarter of the meal should include plant-based protein sources like cooked beans, lentils, and paneer, with the remaining quarter comprising healthy grains or starches such as whole wheat breads, millets, tapioca, and barley. Adherence to the WFPD has been shown to improve cardiometabolic risk factors including weight, BMI, total cholesterol, HbA1c, and reduces the risk of developing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Another approach to improving dietary habits is timing meals. Many of the major cultures and religions in the Indian subcontinent incorporate religious fasting. Time-restricted eating (TRE), also known as intermittent fasting, is a practice akin to traditional fasting, which involves consuming all daily calories within a specific window. TRE has been shown to improve insulin resistance in prediabetic and diabetic patients. Common regimens include completing all meals within an 8-hour window, consuming a low-calorie diet every other day, and the 5:2 diet, which involves fasting twice weekly. These fasting practices align with the natural circadian rhythm, potentially enhancing metabolic health and reducing obesity and diabetes risks. Conclusion: South Asians develop cardiometabolic disease at lower BMIs; hence, it is important to counsel patients about lifestyle interventions that decrease their risk. Traditional South Asian diets can be made more nutrient-rich by incorporating vegetables, plant proteins like lentils and beans, and substituting refined grains for whole grains. Ultimately, the best diet is one to which a patient can adhere. It is therefore important to find a regimen that aligns with a patient’s cultural and traditional food practices.

Keywords: BMI, diet, obesity, South Asian, time-restricted eating

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Authors: Liang Fang

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The development of the large suburban residential area is a product of the leap development during the rapid urbanization process in China. On the process of the large-scale development of large settlements in a short time, various problems arose in the suburban residential area, such as spatial layout being disorder, basic facilities construction lagging behind and being unreasonable, residential neighborhood space and street culture missing. Aimed at the contradictions mentioned above, exploring a way is imminent to construct appropriate residential area. We select a typical Liangzhu Culture Village in Hangzhou and put forward functional composite residential area of fine development strategy, along which business promotes and assists community autonomy and then a good community culture is constructed. All in all, the development and construction mode, contributing to an all-people and full-time participation, is beneficial to create a harmonious community of sustainable development, which gives good implication to a single enterprise development city real estate projects.

Keywords: community autonomy, development and construction mode, functional composite, suburban large residential area

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Authors: Hsiao-Yung Wang

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This paper aims to elaborate the standpoint of neo-Marxism of Russian philosopher Mikhail Bakhtin by critical reading his concept of Bildungsroman; thereby, it aims to map the theoretical implication of spatial rhetoric and its time politics/emancipatory politics in late Bakhtin’s thought. First, it aims to outline the two revolving rings of spatiality in Bildungsroman, proceeding from 'recollecting the past' to 'foreseeing the future' on the basis of visuality and materialistic realism. Herein, Bakhtin has temporarily been leaving his previous research concern on polyphonic novel. Second, it aims to demonstrate that although Bakhtin has constantly emphasized the necessity of reconstructing opened future space, his insistence on 'emergence' has still generated a seemingly theoretical lacuna which needs to be filled. 'Doubled heterotopia,' as popularized by contemporary rhetorician Saindon, might be an adequate approach to articulate and present the rhetorical functions and dynamics of Bakhtin’s spatial rhetoric dialectically. Based on the research findings, this paper argues that Bakhtin indeed attempted to go beyond the deterministic model of Marxism and neo-Marxism strategically and reciprocally.

Keywords: Bildungsroman, double heterotopia, emergence, Mikhail Bakhtin, neo-Marxism, spatial rhetoric, time-politics, visuality

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Authors: Valeriya Tyo, Serikbolat Yessengabulov

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Regions with extreme climate conditions such as Astana city require energy saving measures to increase the energy performance of buildings which are responsible for more than 40% of total energy consumption. Identification of optimal building geometry is one of the key factors to be considered. The architectural form of a building has the impact on space heating and cooling energy use, however, the interrelationship between the geometry and resultant energy use is not always readily apparent. This paper presents a comparative case study of two prototypical buildings with compact building shape to assess its impact on energy performance.

Keywords: building geometry, energy efficiency, heat gain, heat loss

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Authors: Xuerui Niu, Bolin Wang, Xinchuang Zhang, Xiaohua Ma, Bin Hou, Ling Yang

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The application of discrete GaN-based power switches requires the collaboration of silicon-based peripheral circuit structures. However, the packages and interconnection between the Si and GaN devices can introduce parasitic effects to the circuit, which has great impacts on GaN power transistors. GaN-based monolithic power integration technology is an emerging solution which can improve the stability of circuits and allow the GaN-based devices to achieve more functions. Complementary logic circuits consisting of GaN-based E-mode p-channel heterostructure field-effect transistors (p-HFETs) and E-mode n-channel HEMTs can be served as the gate drivers. E-mode p-HFETs with recessed gate have attracted increasing interest because of the low leakage current and large gate swing. However, they suffer from a poor interface between the gate dielectric and polarized nitride layers. The reliability of p-HFETs is analyzed and discussed in this work. In circuit applications, the inverter is always operated with dynamic gate voltage (VGS) rather than a constant VGS. Therefore, dynamic electrical stress has been simulated to resemble the operation conditions for E-mode p-HFETs. The dynamic electrical stress condition is as follows. VGS is a square waveform switching from -5 V to 0 V, VDS is fixed, and the source grounded. The frequency of the square waveform is 100kHz with the rising/falling time of 100 ns and duty ratio of 50%. The effective stress time is 1000s. A number of stress tests are carried out. The stress was briefly interrupted to measure the linear IDS-VGS, saturation IDS-VGS, As VGS switches from -5 V to 0 V and VDS = 0 V, devices are under negative-bias-instability (NBI) condition. Holes are trapped at the interface of oxide layer and GaN channel layer, which results in the reduction of VTH. The negative shift of VTH is serious at the first 10s and then changes slightly with the following stress time. However, different phenomenon is observed when VDS reduces to -5V. VTH shifts negatively during stress condition, and the variation in VTH increases with time, which is different from that when VDS is 0V. Two mechanisms exists in this condition. On the one hand, the electric field in the gate region is influenced by the drain voltage, so that the trapping behavior of holes in the gate region changes. The impact of the gate voltage is weakened. On the other hand, large drain voltage can induce the hot holes generation and lead to serious hot carrier stress (HCS) degradation with time. The poor-quality interface between the oxide layer and GaN channel layer at the gate region makes a major contribution to the high-density interface traps, which will greatly influence the reliability of devices. These results emphasize that the improved etching and pretreatment processes needs to be developed so that high-performance GaN complementary logics with enhanced stability can be achieved.

Keywords: GaN-based E-mode p-HFETs, dynamic electric stress, threshold voltage, monolithic power integration technology

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Naoki Suzuki, Kalla Alok, Nath Paras

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Bluefin (Thunnus orientalis) tuna is one of the most economically valuable tuna species in the world. In recent years the stock has been observed to decline. It is suspected that the stock-recruitment relationship and population structure is influenced by environmental and climatic variables. This study was aimed at investigating the influence of environmental and climatic conditions on the trajectory of the different life stages of the North Pacific bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis was performed for the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the bluefin tuna cohorts (age-0, 1, 2,…,9, 10+). General Additive Modeling (GAM) was used to reconstruct the recruitment (R) trajectory. The spatial movement of the SST was also monitored from 1953 to 2012 in the distribution area of the bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis showed significance influence of the North Pacific Sea Surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the age-0 group. Other age group (1, 2,…,9, 10+) time series did not exhibit any significant correlations. PDO showed most significant relationship in the months of October to December. Although the stock-recruitment relationship is of biological significance, the recruits (age-0) showed poor correlation with the Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB). Indeed the most significant model incorporated the SSB, SST and PDO. The results show that the stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific bluefin tuna is multi-dimensional and cannot be adequately explained by the SSB alone. SST and PDO forcing of the population structure is of significant importance and needs to be accounted for when making harvesting plans for bluefin tuna in the North Pacific.

Keywords: pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus orientalis, cohorts, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, general additive model

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Authors: Hina Munir Abbasi

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The current paper examines the relationship and diversification ability of Islamic stock indices /conventional stocks indices and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).To represent conditional dependency between stocks and REITs in a more realistic way, new modeling technique, time-varying copula with switching dependence is used. It represents reliance structure more accurately and realistically than a single copula regime as dependence may alter between positive and negative correlation regimes with time. The fluctuating behavior of markets has significant impact on economic variables; especially the downward trend during crisis. Overall addition of Real Estate Investment Trust in stocks portfolio reduces risks and provide better diversification benefit. Results varied depending upon the circumstances of the country. REITs provides better diversification benefits for Islamic Stocks, when both markets are bearish and can provide hedging benefit for conventional stocks portfolio.

Keywords: conventional stocks, real estate investment trust, copula, diversification, risk spillover, safe heaven

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Authors: Vaibhav Pandey, K. Chattopadhyay, N. C. Santhi Srinivas, Vakil Singh

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Aluminium alloy 7075 consist of different intermetallic precipitate particles MgZn2, CuAl2, which result in heterogeneity of micro structure and influence the corrosion properties of the alloy. Artificial ageing was found to enhance the strength properties, but highly susceptible to stress-corrosion cracking. Various conventional surface modification techniques are developed for improving corrosion properties of aluminum alloys. This led to development of novel surface mechanical attrition treatment (SMAT) technique the so called ultrasonic shot peening which gives nano-grain structure at surface. In the present investigation the influence of surface mechanical attrition treatment on corrosion behavior of aluminum alloy 7075 was studied in 3.5wt% NaCl solution. Two different size of 1 mm and 3 mm steel balls are used as peening media and SMAT was carried out for different time intervals 5, 15 and 30 minutes. Surface nano-grains/nano-crystallization was observed after SMAT. The formation of nano-grain structure was observed for larger size balls with time of treatment and consequent increase in micro strain. As-SMATed sample with 1 mm balls exhibits better corrosion resistance as compared to that of un-SMATed sample. The enhancement in corrosion resistance may be due to formation of surface nano-grain structure which reduced the electron release rate. In contrast the samples treated with 3 mm balls showed very poor corrosion resistance. A decrease in corrosion resistance was observed with increase in the time of peening. The decrease in corrosion resistance in the shotpeened samples with larger diameter balls may due to increase in microstrain and defect density.

Keywords: aluminum alloy 7075, corrosion, SMAT, ultrasonic shot peening, surface nano-grains

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Authors: Erin V. Kelly, Nicola C. Newton, Lexine A. Stapinski, Maree Teesson

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Introduction: There is a lack of targeted prevention programs for reducing bullying and distress among adolescents involved in bullying. The current study aimed to examine the impact of a personality-targeted intervention (Preventure) on bullying (victimization and perpetration) and distress among adolescent victims/bullies with high-risk personality types. Method: A cluster randomized trial (RCT) was conducted in 26 secondary schools (2190 students) in NSW and Victoria, Australia, as part of the Climate Schools and Preventure trial. The schools were randomly allocated to Preventure (13 schools received Preventure, 13 did not). Students were followed up at 4 time points (6, 12, 24 and 36 months post-baseline). Preventure involves two group sessions, based on cognitive behavioral therapy, and tailored to four personality types shown to increase risk of substance misuse and other emotional and behavioural problems, including impulsivity, sensation-seeking, anxiety sensitivity and hopelessness. Students were allocated to the personality-targeted groups based on their scores on the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale. Bullying was measured using an amended version of the Revised Olweus Bully/Victim Scale. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale. Results: Among high-risk students classified as victims at baseline, those in Preventure schools reported significantly less victimization and distress over time than those in control schools. Among high-risk students classified as bullies at baseline, those in Preventure schools reported significantly less distress over time than those in control schools (no difference for perpetration). Conclusion: Preventure is a promising intervention for reducing bullying victimization and psychological distress among adolescents involved in bullying.

Keywords: adolescents, bullying, personality, prevention

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Authors: Amy Stringer, Resa Chandler

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High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) involves a 3-10-minute circuit of various exercises which is a viable alternative to a traditional cardiovascular and strength training regimen. Research suggests that measures of health-related fitness can either be maintained or actually improve with the use of this training method. After conducting a 6-week HIIT research study with 10-14 year old children, considerations for using a daily HIIT workout are presented. Is the use of HIIT with children a reasonable consideration for physical education programs? The benefits and challenges of this type of an intervention are identified. This study is significant in that achieving fitness gains in a small amount of daily class time is an attractive concept – especially for physical education teachers who often do not have the time necessary to accomplish all of their curricular goals in the amount of class time assigned. Basic methodologies include students participating in a circuit of exercises for 7-10 minutes at 80-95% of max heart rate as measured by heart rate monitors. Student pre and post fitness test data were collected for cardio-vascular endurance, muscular endurance, and body composition. Research notes as well as commentary by the teachers and researchers who participated in the HIIT study contributed to the understanding of the cost-benefit analysis. Major findings of the study are that HIIT has limited effectiveness but is a good choice for limited class times. Student efficacy of their ability to complete the exercises and visible heart rate data were considered to be significant factors in success of the HIIT study. The effective use of technology promoting positive audience effect during the display of heart rate data was more important at the beginning of the study than at the end. Student ‘buy-in’ and motivation, teacher motivation and ‘buy-in’, the variety of activities in the circuit and the fitness level of the student at the beginning of the study were also findings influencing the fitness outcomes of the study. Concluding Statement: High intensity interval training can be used effectively in a secondary physical education program. It is not a ‘magic bullet’ to produce health-related fitness outcomes in every student but it is an effective tool to enhance student fitness in a limited time and contribute to the goals of the program.

Keywords: cardio vascular fitness, children, high intensity interval training, physical education

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Authors: Insook Lee, Heeseung Choi, Kyung-Sook Bang, Sungjae Kim, Minkyung Song, Buhyun Lee

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Backgrounds: A clearer and comprehensive understanding of the effects of forest therapy on depression is needed for further refinements of forest therapy programs. The purpose of this study was to review the literature on forest therapy programs designed to decrease the level of depression among adults to evaluate current forest therapy programs. Methods: This literature review was conducted using various databases including PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycArticle, KISS, RISS, and DBpia to identify relevant studies published up to January 2016. The two authors independently screened the full text articles using the following criteria: 1) intervention studies assessing the effects of forest therapy on depression among healthy adults ages 18 and over; 2) including at least one control group or condition; 3) being peer-reviewed; and 4) being published either in English. The Scottish Intercollegiate Guideline Network (SIGN) measurement tool was used to assess the risk of bias in each trial. Results: After screening current literature, a total of 14 articles (English: 6, Korean: 8) were included in the present review. None of the studies used randomized controlled (RCT) study design and the sample size ranged from 11 to 300. Walking in the forest and experiencing the forest using the five senses was the key component of the forest therapy that was included in all studies. The majority of studies used one-time intervention that usually lasted a few hours or half-day. The most widely used measure for depression was Profile of Mood States (POMS). Most studies used self-reported, paper-and-pencil tests, and only 5 studies used both paper-and-pencil tests and physiological measures. Regarding the quality assessment based on the SIGN criteria, only 3 articles were rated ‘acceptable’ and the rest of the 14 articles were rated ‘low quality.’ Regardless of the diversity in format and contents of forest therapies, most studies showed a significant effect of forest therapy in curing depression. Discussions: This systematic review showed that forest therapy is one of the emerging and effective intervention approaches for decreasing the level of depression among adults. Limitations of the current programs identified from the review were as follows; 1) small sample size; 2) a lack of objective and comprehensive measures for depression; and 3) inadequate information about research process. Futures studies assessing the long-term effect of forest therapy on depression using rigorous study designs are needed.

Keywords: forest therapy, systematic review, depression, adult

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Authors: Amelia Tero-Vescan, Camil-Eugen Vari, Laura Ciulea, Cristina Filip, Silvia Imre

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A HPLC –UV method for the identification of ephedrine (EPH), sibutramine (SB), yohimbine (Y) and caffeine (CF) was developed. Separation was performed on a Kromasil 100-RP8, 150 mm x 4.6 mm, 5 mm column equipped with a precolumn Kromasil RP 8. Mobile phase was a gradient of 80-35 % sodium dihydrogen phosphate pH=5 with NH4OH and acetonitrile over 15 minutes time of analysis. Based on the responses of 113 athletes about dietary supplements (DS) consumed for "fat burning" and weight loss which have a legal status in Romania, 28 supplements have been selected and investigated for their content in CF, Y, legal substances, and SB, EPH (prohibited substances in DS). The method allows quantitative determination of the four substances in a short analysis time and with minimum cost. The presence of SB and EPH in the analyzed DS was not detected while the content in CF and Y considering the dosage recommended by the manufacturer does not affect the health of the consumers. DS labeling (plant extracts with CF and Y content) allows manufacturers to avoid declaring correct and exact amounts per pharmaceutical form (pure CF or equivalent and Y, respectively).

Keywords: dietary supplements, sibutramine, ephedrine, yohimbine, caffeine, HPLC

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Authors: Belkadi Adel, Beboucha Wahib, Cherara lalia

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Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of Kumi-kata in elite judokas and characterize the kinematic and temporal parameters of different types of handgrip (HG). Method: fourteen participated in this study male athlete (23.5±2.61 years; 1.81±0.37 0 m; 87.25±22.75 kg), members of the Georgian Judo team. To characterize the dominance and types of kumi-kata used, videos of international competitions from each athlete were analyzed, and to characterize kinematic and temporal parameters and handgrip, and the volunteers pressed a digital dynamometer with each hand for 30 seconds(s) after a visual signal. Results: The values of 0.26±0.69s and 0.31±0.03s for reaction time were obtained, respectively, in the full grip and pinch grip; 19.62±18.83N/cm/s and 6.17±3.48N/cm/s for the rate of force development; 475,21 ± 101,322N and 494,65±112,73 for the FDR; 1,37 ± 0,521s and 1,45 ± 0,824s for the time between the force onset to the TFP; and 41,27±4,54N/cm/s and 45,16 ± 5,64N/cm/s for the fall index, in the dominant hand. There was no significant difference between hands for any variable, except for the dominance of Kumi-kata (p<0.05) used in combat. Conclusion: The dominance of application of the Kumi-kata is a technical option, as it does not depend on the kinetic-temporal parameters of the handgrip.

Keywords: hand grip, judo, athletes, Kumi-Kata

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Authors: Asma Bentaifa

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This paper investigates the effect of ownership concentration and especially the presence of controlling shareholders on the firm’s payout decisions. Using a sample of 870 French companies during 2007 to 2012, we find that the share of dividends in total payout is negatively correlated with the size of cash flow held by controlling shareholder, and positively related to the divergence between voting rights and cash flow rights of largest shareholders. We also document that controlled firms tend to prefer dividends over repurchases to mitigate conflicts between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders related to the presence of control enhancing devices.

Keywords: ownership, payout policy, dividend, minority expropriation

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Authors: Ashti Morovati, Hushyar Azari, Bahram Pourghassem Gargari

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Objectives and goals: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), as a major health burden for societies, is increasing. This clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the effects of CuEO supplementation on anthropometric indices, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood glucose level, insulin resistance and serum lipid level in patients suffering from MetS. Methods: This was a randomized, triple‐blind, placebo‐controlled clinical trial in which 56 patients with MetS aged 18–60 years who fulfilled the eligibility criteria were randomly allocated to an intervention or a control group. Inclusion criteria for the study were comprised of diagnosis of MetS according to the new International Federation of Diabetes. The exclusion criteria were defined as: taking herbal supplements, use of drugs having evident interaction with cumin such as anti‐depressant drugs, vitamin D, omega 3, selenium, zinc, smoking, pregnancy, or breastfeeding, suffering from cancer, having any history of gastrointestinal and hepatic, cardiovascular, thyroid and kidney disorders, and menopause. 75 mg CuEO or placebo soft gels were administered three times daily to the participants for eight weeks. The soft gel consumption was checked by asking the participants to bring the medication containers in the follow‐up visits at the 4th and the 8th weeks of the study. Data pertaining to blood pressure, height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference and BMI, as well as food consumption were collected at the beginning and end of the study. Fasting blood samples ( glucose, triglyceride, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol) were obtained and biochemical measurements were assessed at the beginning and end of the study. Results: At eight weeks, a total of 44 patients completed this study. Except for diastolic blood pressure (DBP), the other assessed variables were not significantly different between the two groups. In intra group analysis, placebo and CuEO groups both had insignificant decrements in DBP (mean difference [MD] with 95% CI: −3.31 [−7.11, 0.47] and −1.77 [−5.95, 2.40] mmHg, respectively). However, DBP was significantly lower in CuEO compared with the placebo group at the end of study (81.41 ± 5.88 vs. 84.09 ± 5.54 mmHg, MD with 95% CI: −3.98 [−7.60, −0.35] mmHg, p < .05). Conclusions: The results of this study indicated that CuEO does not have any effect on MetS components, except for DBP in patients with MetS.

Keywords: blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipid profile, waist circumference

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Authors: Natalia Sypion-Dutkowska

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Abstract — The main research objective of the paper is to discover the relationship between the age groups of residents and crime in particular districts of a large city. The basic analytical tool is specific crime rates, calculated not in relation to the total population, but for age groups in a different social situation - property, housing, work, and representing different generations with different behavior patterns. They are the communities from which criminals and victims of crimes come. The analysis of literature and national police reports gives rise to hypotheses about the ability of a given age group to generate crime as a source of offenders and as a group of victims. These specific indicators are spatially differentiated, which makes it possible to detect socio-demographic determinants of spatial patterns of urban crime. A multi-feature classification of districts was also carried out, in which specific crime rates are the diagnostic features. In this way, areas with a similar structure of socio-demographic determinants of spatial patterns on urban crime were designated. The case study is the city of Szczecin in Poland. It has about 400,000 inhabitants and its area is about 300 sq km. Szczecin is located in the immediate vicinity of Germany and is the economic, academic and cultural capital of the region. It also has a seaport and an airport. Moreover, according to ESPON 2007, Szczecin is the Transnational and National Functional Urban Area. Szczecin is divided into 37 districts - auxiliary administrative units of the municipal government. The population of each of them in 2015-17 was divided into 8 age groups: babes (0-2 yrs.), children (3-11 yrs.), teens (12-17 yrs.), younger adults (18-30 yrs.), middle-age adults (31-45 yrs.), older adults (46-65 yrs.), early older (66-80) and late older (from 81 yrs.). The crimes reported in 2015-17 in each of the districts were divided into 10 groups: fights and beatings, other theft, car theft, robbery offenses, burglary into an apartment, break-in into a commercial facility, car break-in, break-in into other facilities, drug offenses, property damage. In total, 80 specific crime rates have been calculated for each of the districts. The analysis was carried out on an intra-city scale, this is a novel approach as this type of analysis is usually carried out at the national or regional level. Another innovative research approach is the use of specific crime rates in relation to age groups instead of standard crime rates. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, registration number 2019/35/D/HS4/02942.

Keywords: age groups, determinants of crime, spatial crime pattern, urban crime

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Authors: Gurjit Kaur, Shashank Johri, Arpit Mehrotra

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In this paper we have analyzed and compared the performance of various coding schemes. The basic ID prime sequence codes are unique in only dimension i.e. time slots whereas 2D coding techniques are not unique by their time slots but with their wavelengths also. In this research we have evaluated and compared the performance of 1D and 2D coding techniques constructed using prime sequence coding pattern for OCDMA system on a single platform. Results shows that 1D Extended Prime Code (EPC) can support more number of active users compared to other codes but at the expense of larger code length which further increases the complexity of the code. Modified Prime Code (MPC) supports lesser number of active users at λc=2 but it has a lesser code length as compared to 1D prime code. Analysis shows that 2D prime code supports lesser number of active users than 1D codes but they are having large code family and are the most secure codes compared to other codes. The performance of all these codes is analyzed on basis of number of active users supported at a Bit Error Rate (BER) of 10-9.

Keywords: CDMA, OCDMA, BER, OOC, PC, EPC, MPC, 2-D PC/PC, λc, λa

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Authors: Sunghun Jung, Wonkook Kim

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Due to the difficulty of the utilization of satellite and an aircraft, conventional ocean color remote sensing has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to obtain images of desired places at desired times. These disadvantages make it difficult to capture the anomalies such as the occurrence of the red tide which requires immediate observation. It is also difficult to understand the phenomena such as the resuspension-precipitation process of suspended solids and the spread of low-salinity water originating in the coastal areas. For the remote sensing reflectance of seawater, above-water radiometers (AWR) have been used either by carrying portable AWRs on a ship or installing those at fixed observation points on the Ieodo ocean research station, Socheongcho base, and etc. In particular, however, it requires the high cost to measure the remote reflectance in various seawater environments at various times and it is even not possible to measure it at the desired frequency in the desired sea area at the desired time. Also, in case of the stationary observation, it is advantageous that observation data is continuously obtained, but there is the disadvantage that data of various sea areas cannot be obtained. It is possible to instantly capture various marine phenomena occurring on the coast using the unmanned aerial system (UAS) including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) since it could move and hover at the one location and acquire data of the desired form at a high resolution. To remotely estimate seawater constituents, it is necessary to install an ultra-spectral sensor. Also, to calculate reflected light from the surface of the sea in consideration of the sun’s incident light, a total of three sensors need to be installed on the UAV. The remote sensing reflectance of seawater is the most basic optical property for remotely estimating color components in seawater and we could remotely estimate the chlorophyll concentration, the suspended solids concentration, and the dissolved organic amount. Estimating seawater physics from the remote sensing reflectance requires the algorithm development using the accumulation data of seawater reflectivity under various seawater and atmospheric conditions. The UAS with three AWRs is developed for the remote reflection sensing on the surface of the sea. Throughout the paper, we explain the details of each UAS component, system operation scenarios, and simulation and experiment results. The UAS consists of a UAV, a solar tracker, a transmitter, a ground control station (GCS), three AWRs, and two gimbals.

Keywords: above-water radiometers (AWR), ground control station (GCS), unmanned aerial system (UAS), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

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Authors: Qiang Zhang, Xiaojian Hu

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Aiming at the problem of the existing real-time evaluation methods for traffic safety status, a video information-based urban road section traffic safety status evaluation method was established, and the rapid detection method of traffic flow parameters based on video information is analyzed. The concept of the speed dispersion of the road section that affects the traffic safety state of the urban road section is proposed, and the method of evaluating the traffic safety state of the urban road section based on the speed dispersion of the road section is established. Experiments show that the proposed method can reasonably evaluate the safety status of urban roads in real-time, and the evaluation results can provide a corresponding basis for the traffic management department to formulate an effective urban road section traffic safety improvement plan.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, road traffic safety, video information, vehicle speed dispersion

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Neerja Bharti, Drishya P.

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Introduction: Thyroidectomies are extensive surgeries involving a significant degree of tissue handling and dissection and are associated with considerable postoperative pain. Regional anaesthesia techniques have immerged as possible inexpensive and safe alternatives to opioids in the management of pain after thyroidectomy. The front of the neck is innervated by branches from the cervical plexus, and hence, several approaches for superficial and deep cervical plexus block (CPB) have been described to provide postoperative analgesia after neck surgery. However, very few studies have explored the analgesic efficacy of intermediate CPB for thyroid surgery. In this study, we have evaluated the effects of ultrasound-guided bilateral intermediate CPB on perioperative opioid consumption in patients undergoing thyroidectomy under general anesthesia. Methods: In this prospective randomized controlled study, fifty ASA grade I-II adult patients undergoing thyroidectomy were randomly divided into two groups: the study group received ultrasound-guided bilateral intermediate CPB with 10 ml 0.5% ropivacaine on each side, while the control group received the same block with 10 ml normal saline on each side just after induction of anesthesia. Anesthesia was induced with propofol, fentanyl, and vecuronium and maintained with propofol infusion titrated to maintain the BIS between 40 and 60. During the postoperative period, rescue analgesia was provided with PCA fentanyl, and the pain scores, total fentanyl consumption, and incidence of nausea and vomiting during 24 hours were recorded, and overall patient satisfaction was assessed. Results: The groups were well-matched with respect to age, gender, BMI, and duration of surgery. The difference in intraoperative propofol and fentanyl consumption was not statistically significant between groups. However, the intraoperative haemodynamic parameters were better maintained in the study group than in the control group. The postoperative pain scores, as measured by VAS at rest and during movement, were lower, and the total fentanyl consumption during 24 hours was significantly less in the study group as compared to the control group. Patients in the study group reported better satisfaction scores than those in the control group. No adverse effects of ultrasound-guided intermediate CPB block were reported. Conclusion: We concluded that ultrasound-guided intermediate cervical plexus block is a safe and effective method for providing perioperative analgesia during thyroid surgery.

Keywords: thyroidectomy, cervical plexus block, pain relief, opioid consumption

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