Search results for: labor income share
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3672

Search results for: labor income share

3132 Ama de Casa: Gender Division of Labor the Response to Environmental and Economic Constraints, Ecuador

Authors: Tyrus C. Torres, Michael Harris

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In a coastal town of Ecuador, the role of women is commonly defined as an ama de casa, a woman who works in the house, raises children, and contributes to the community. This project, under the guidance of Dr. Michael Harris from the Florida Atlantic University, seeks to understand how the role of an ama de casa provides a secure environment for men and women, coexists with economic and environmental constraints that explain the origins of how this environment has been formed. The coastal community aspects of familia (family), trabajo (work), relación (relationships), machismo (masculinity), feminista (femininity), and the culture of Ecuador define the ways of life in a coastal setting. This ethnographic research project included the following methodologies: environment mapping, conducting interviews, surveys, participant observation, direct and indirect observations, and integration into daily life. Immersion into the daily life and building relationships with the local people allowed the documentation of intricacies of both the cultural and social spheres. The findings of this research offer insight on how culture, economics, and environment can form female and male agency. Our investigation shows that occupations such as fishermen, laborers, ama de casas, and even students utilize occupational routes to create social agency in the face of economic and environmental constraints in Ecuador.

Keywords: Ecuador, ethnography, gender division of labor, gender roles

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3131 The Relationship between Land Use Factors and Feeling of Happiness at the Neighbourhood Level

Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, Z. Sultan, M. Zaly Shah

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Happiness can be related to everything that can provide a feeling of satisfaction or pleasure. This study tries to consider the relationship between land use factors and feeling of happiness at the neighbourhood level. Land use variables (beautiful and attractive neighbourhood design, availability and quality of shopping centres, sufficient recreational spaces and facilities, and sufficient daily service centres) are used as independent variables and the happiness score is used as the dependent variable in this study. In addition to the land use variables, socio-economic factors (gender, race, marital status, employment status, education, and income) are also considered as independent variables. This study uses the Oxford happiness questionnaire to estimate happiness score of more than 300 people living in six neighbourhoods. The neighbourhoods are selected randomly from Skudai neighbourhoods in Johor, Malaysia. The land use data were obtained by adding related questions to the Oxford happiness questionnaire. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using generalised linear modelling (GLM). The findings of this research indicate that increase in happiness feeling is correlated with an increasing income, more beautiful and attractive neighbourhood design, sufficient shopping centres, recreational spaces, and daily service centres. The results show that all land use factors in this study have significant relationship with happiness but only income, among socio-economic factors, can affect happiness significantly. Therefore, land use factors can affect happiness in Skudai more than socio-economic factors.

Keywords: neighbourhood land use, neighbourhood design, happiness, socio-economic factors, generalised linear modelling

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3130 The Production, Negotiation and Resistance of Short Video Producers

Authors: Cui Li, Xu Yuping

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Based on the question of, "Are short video creators who are digital workers controlled by platform rules?" this study discusses the specific ways of platform rules control and the impact on short video creators. Based on the theory of digital labor, this paper adopts the method of in-depth interview and participant observation and chooses 24 producers of short video content of Tiktok to conduct in-depth interview. At the same time, through entering the short video creation field, the author carries on the four-month field investigation, obtains the creation process related data, and analyzes how the short video creator, as the digital labor, is controlled by the platform rule, as well as the creator in this process of compromise and resistance, a more comprehensive presentation of the short video creators of the labor process. It is found that the short video creators are controlled by the platform rules, mainly in the control of traffic rules, and the creators create content, compromise and resist under the guidance of traffic. First, while the platform seems to offer a flexible and autonomous way for creators to monetize, the threshold for participating in the event is actually very high for creators, and the rules for monetizing the event are vague. Under the influence of the flow rule, the creator is faced unstable incomes and high costs. Therefore, creators have to follow the rules of traffic to guide their own creation, began to flow-oriented content production, mainly reflected in the need to keep up-to-date, the pursuit of traffic to ride on the hot spots, in order to flow regardless, set up people "Born for the show", by the label solidified content creation. Secondly, the irregular working hours lead to the extension and overwork of the working hours, which leads to the internal friction of the short video creators at the spiritual level, and finally leads to the Rat Race of video creation. Thirdly, the video creator has completed the internalization and compromise of the platform rules in practice, which promotes the creator to continue to create independently, and forms the intrinsic motive force of the creator. Finally, the rule-controlled short video creators resist and fight in flexible ways, make use of the mechanism and rules of the platform to carry on the second creation, carry on the routine production, purchase the false flow, transfer the creation position to maintain own creation autonomy.

Keywords: short videos, tiktok, production, digital labors

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3129 Dynamic Risk Identification Using Fuzzy Failure Mode Effect Analysis in Fabric Process Industries: A Research Article as Management Perspective

Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

Abstract:

In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: break even point, fuzzy crisp data, fuzzy sets, productivity, productivity cycle, total productive maintenance

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3128 The Effects of Subjective and Objective Indicators of Inequality on Life Satisfaction in a Comparative Perspective Using a Multi-Level Analysis

Authors: Atefeh Bagherianziarat, Dana Hamplova

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The inverse social gradient in life satisfaction (LS) is a well-established research finding. To estimate the influence of inequality on LS, most of the studies have explored the effect of the objective aspects of inequality or individuals’ socioeconomic status (SES). However, relatively fewer studies have confirmed recently the significant effect of the subjective aspect of inequality or subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) on life satisfaction over and above SES. In other words, it is confirmed by some studies that individuals’ perception of their unequal status in society or SSS can moderate the impact of their absolute unequal status on their life satisfaction. Nevertheless, this newly confirmed moderating link has not been affirmed to work likewise in societies with different levels of social inequality and also for people who believe in the value of equality, at different levels. In this study, we compared the moderative influence of subjective inequality on the link between objective inequality and life satisfaction. In particular, we focus on differences across welfare state regimes based on Esping-Andersen's theory. Also, we explored the moderative role of believing in the value of equality on the link between objective and subjective inequality on LS in the given societies. Since our studied variables were measured at both individual and country levels, we applied a multilevel analysis to the European Social Survey data (round 9). The results showed that people in deferent regimes reported statistically meaningful different levels of life satisfaction that is explained to different extends by their household income and their perception of their income inequality. The findings of the study supported the previous findings of the moderator influence of perceived inequality on the link between objective inequality and LS. However, this link is different in various welfare state regimes. The results of the multilevel modeling showed that country-level subjective equality is a positive predictor for individuals’ life satisfaction, while the GINI coefficient that was considered as the indicator of absolute inequality has a smaller effect on life satisfaction. Also, country-level subjective equality moderates the confirmed link between individuals’ income and their life satisfaction. It can be concluded that both individual and country-level subjective inequality slightly moderate the effect of individuals’ income on their life satisfaction.

Keywords: individual values, life satisfaction, multilevel analysis, objective inequality, subjective inequality, welfare regimes status

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3127 A Proposal for an Excessivist Social Welfare Ordering

Authors: V. De Sandi

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In this paper, we characterize a class of rank-weighted social welfare orderings that we call ”Excessivist.” The Excessivist Social Welfare Ordering (eSWO) judges incomes above a fixed threshold θ as detrimental to society. To accomplish this, the identification of a richness or affluence line is necessary. We employ a fixed, exogenous line of excess. We define an eSWF in the form of a weighted sum of individual’s income. This requires introducing n+1 vectors of weights, one for all possible numbers of individuals below the threshold. To do this, the paper introduces a slight modification of the class of rank weighted class of social welfare function. Indeed, in our excessivist social welfare ordering, we allow the weights to be both positive (for individuals below the line) and negative (for individuals above). Then, we introduce ethical concerns through an axiomatic approach. The following axioms are required: continuity above and below the threshold (Ca, Cb), anonymity (A), absolute aversion to excessive richness (AER), pigou dalton positive weights preserving transfer (PDwpT), sign rank preserving full comparability (SwpFC) and strong pareto below the threshold (SPb). Ca, Cb requires that small changes in two income distributions above and below θ do not lead to changes in their ordering. AER suggests that if two distributions are identical in any respect but for one individual above the threshold, who is richer in the first, then the second should be preferred by society. This means that we do not care about the waste of resources above the threshold; the priority is the reduction of excessive income. According to PDwpT, a transfer from a better-off individual to a worse-off individual despite their relative position to the threshold, without reversing their ranks, leads to an improved distribution if the number of individuals below the threshold is the same after the transfer or the number of individuals below the threshold has increased. SPb holds only for individuals below the threshold. The weakening of strong pareto and our ethics need to be justified; we support them through the notion of comparative egalitarianism and income as a source of power. SwpFC is necessary to ensure that, following a positive affine transformation, an individual does not become excessively rich in only one distribution, thereby reversing the ordering of the distributions. Given the axioms above, we can characterize the class of the eSWO, getting the following result through a proof by contradiction and exhaustion: Theorem 1. A social welfare ordering satisfies the axioms of continuity above and below the threshold, anonymity, sign rank preserving full comparability, aversion to excessive richness, Pigou Dalton positive weight preserving transfer, and strong pareto below the threshold, if and only if it is an Excessivist-social welfare ordering. A discussion about the implementation of different threshold lines reviewing the primary contributions in this field follows. What the commonly implemented social welfare functions have been overlooking is the concern for extreme richness at the top. The characterization of Excessivist Social Welfare Ordering, given the axioms above, aims to fill this gap.

Keywords: comparative egalitarianism, excess income, inequality aversion, social welfare ordering

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3126 Frailty and Quality of Life among Older Adults: A Study of Six LMICs Using SAGE Data

Authors: Mamta Jat

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Background: The increased longevity has resulted in the increase in the percentage of the global population aged 60 years or over. With this “demographic transition” towards ageing, “epidemiologic transition” is also taking place characterised by growing share of non-communicable diseases in the overall disease burden. So, many of the older adults are ageing with chronic disease and high levels of frailty which often results in lower levels of quality of life. Although frailty may be increasingly common in older adults, prevention or, at least, delay the onset of late-life adverse health outcomes and disability is necessary to maintain the health and functional status of the ageing population. This is an effort using SAGE data to assess levels of frailty and its socio-demographic correlates and its relation with quality of life in LMICs of India, China, Ghana, Mexico, Russia and South Africa in a comparative perspective. Methods: The data comes from multi-country Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE), consists of nationally representative samples of older adults in six low and middle-income countries (LMICs): China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation and South Africa. For our study purpose, we will consider only 50+ year’s respondents. The logistic regression model has been used to assess the correlates of frailty. Multinomial logistic regression has been used to study the effect of frailty on QOL (quality of life), controlling for the effect of socio-economic and demographic correlates. Results: Among all the countries India is having highest mean frailty in males (0.22) and females (0.26) and China with the lowest mean frailty in males (0.12) and females (0.14). The odds of being frail are more likely with the increase in age across all the countries. In India, China and Russia the chances of frailty are more among rural older adults; whereas, in Ghana, South Africa and Mexico rural residence is protecting against frailty. Among all countries china has high percentage (71.46) of frail people in low QOL; whereas Mexico has lowest percentage (36.13) of frail people in low QOL.s The risk of having low and middle QOL is significantly (p<0.001) higher among frail elderly as compared to non–frail elderly across all countries with controlling socio-demographic correlates. Conclusion: Women and older age groups are having higher frailty levels than men and younger aged adults in LMICs. The mean frailty scores demonstrated a strong inverse relationship with education and income gradients, while lower levels of education and wealth are showing higher levels of frailty. These patterns are consistent across all LMICs. These data support a significant role of frailty with all other influences controlled, in having low QOL as measured by WHOQOL index. Future research needs to be built on this evolving concept of frailty in an effort to improve quality of life for frail elderly population, in LMICs setting.

Keywords: Keywords: Ageing, elderly, frailty, quality of life

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3125 The Number of Corona Virus Infections in 2020

Authors: Yasaswi Vengalasetti, Jacob Eisenach, Jay Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Seroprevalence studies can provide an estimation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the probability of death given infection. Measuring the seroprevalence and reported deaths of an area within a given time frame an IFR can be estimated. With this IFR calculation, we can then observe COVID-19 death figures in different countries around the world and estimate the number of cases since the onset of the pandemic. There is a large range for estimated COVID-19 infections across different countries. This ranged from 0.659 million infections in Hong Kong to 277 million infections in India. The largest estimated share of the population infected is 63% in Peru and the lowest is 3% in Norway. For younger populations, COVID-19 is most fatal in South America; for older populations, it is most fatal in North America. The Asian regions stand out with significantly lower IFRs in older populations: at 80 years old, COVID-19 is about three times as fatal than in South Asia and about twelve times as fatal than in East Asia. The weighted average for the share of the population infected, the sum of infections divided by the sum of populations across all countries, is 23%.

Keywords: epidemiology, seroprevalence, covid-19, infection fatality rate

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3124 Charcoal Production from Invasive Species: Suggested Shift for Increased Household Income and Forest Plant Diversity in Nepal

Authors: Kishor Prasad Bhatta, Suman Ghimire, Durga Prasad Joshi

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Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are considered waste forest resources in Nepal. The rapid expansion of IAS is one of the nine main drivers of forest degradation, though the extent and distribution of this species are not well known. Further, the knowledge of the impact of IAS removal on forest plant diversity is hardly known, and the possibilities of income generation from them at the grass-root communities are rarely documented. Systematic sampling of 1% with nested circular plots of 500 square meters was performed in IAS removed and non-removed area, each of 30 hectares in Udayapur Community Forest User Group (CFUG), Chitwan, central Nepal to observe whether the removal of IAS contributed to an increase in plant diversity. In addition, ten entrepreneurs of Udaypur CFUG, involved in the charcoal production, briquette making and marketing were interviewed and interacted as well as their record keeping booklets were reviewed to understand if the charcoal production contributed to their income and employment. The average annual precipitation and temperature of the study area is 2100 mm and 34 degree Celsius respectively with Shorea robusta as main tree species and Eupatorium odoratum as dominant IAS. All the interviewed households were from the ̔below-poverty-line’ category as per Community Forestry Guidelines. A higher Shannon-Weiner plant diversity index at regeneration level was observed in IAS removed areas (2.43) than in control site (1.95). Furthermore, the number of tree seedlings and saplings in the IAS harvested blocks were significantly higher (p < 0.005) compared to the unharvested one. The sale of charcoal produced through the pyrolysis of IAS in ̔ Bio-energy kilns’ contributed for an average increased income of 30.95 % (Nepalese rupees 31,000) of the involved households. Despite above factors, some operational policy hurdles related to charcoal transport and taxation existed at field level. This study suggests that plant diversity could be increased through the removal of IAS, and considerable economic benefits could be achieved if charcoal is substantially produced and utilized.

Keywords: briquette, economic benefits, pyrolysis, regeneration

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3123 How Message Framing and Temporal Distance Affect Word of Mouth

Authors: Camille Lacan, Pierre Desmet

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In the crowdfunding model, a campaign succeeds by collecting the funds required over a predefined duration. The success of a CF campaign depends both on the capacity to attract members of the online communities concerned, and on the community members’ involvement in online word-of-mouth recommendations. To maximize the campaign's success probability, project creators (i.e., an organization appealing for financial resources) send messages to contributors to ask them to issue word of mouth. Internet users relay information about projects through Word of Mouth which is defined as “a critical tool for facilitating information diffusion throughout online communities”. The effectiveness of these messages depends on the message framing and the time at which they are sent to contributors (i.e., at the start of the campaign or close to the deadline). This article addresses the following question: What are the effect of message framing and temporal distance on the willingness to share word of mouth? Drawing on Perspectives Theory and Construal Level Theory, this study examines the interplay between message framing (Gains vs. Losses) and temporal distance (message while the deadline is coming vs. far) on intention to share word of mouth. A between-subject experimental design is conducted to test the research model. Results show significant differences between a loss-framed message (lack of benefits if the campaign fails) associated with a short deadline (ending tomorrow) compared to a gain-framed message (benefits if the campaign succeeds) associated with a distant deadline (ending in three months). However, this effect is moderated by the anticipated regret of a campaign failure and the temporal orientation. These moderating effects contribute to specifying the boundary condition of the framing effect. Handling the message framing and the temporal distance are thus the key decisions to influence the willingness to share word of mouth.

Keywords: construal levels, crowdfunding, message framing, word of mouth

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3122 Economic Activities Associated with Extraction of Riverbed Materials in the Tinau River, Nepal

Authors: Khet Raj Dahal, Dhruva Dhital, Chhatra Mani Sharma

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A study was conducted during 2012 to 2013 in the selected reach of Tinau River, Nepal. The main objective of the study was to quantify employment and income generation from the extraction of construction materials from the river. A 10 km stretch of the river was selected for the study. Sample survey with a semi-structured questionnaire and field observation were the main tools used during field investigation. Extraction of riverbed materials from the banks, beds and floodplain areas of the river has provided many kinds of job opportunities for the people living in the vicinity of the river. It has also generated an adequate amount of revenues. The collected revenue has been invested for many kinds of social and infrastructures development for years. Though extraction of riverbed materials is beneficial for income and employment generation, it has also negative environmental impacts in and around the river. Furthermore, the study concluded that river bed extraction should be continued with special monitoring and evaluation in the areas where there is still room for extraction.

Keywords: extraction, crusher plants, economic activities, Tinau River

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3121 Unified Coordinate System Approach for Swarm Search Algorithms in Global Information Deficit Environments

Authors: Rohit Dey, Sailendra Karra

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This paper aims at solving the problem of multi-target searching in a Global Positioning System (GPS) denied environment using swarm robots with limited sensing and communication abilities. Typically, existing swarm-based search algorithms rely on the presence of a global coordinate system (vis-à-vis, GPS) that is shared by the entire swarm which, in turn, limits its application in a real-world scenario. This can be attributed to the fact that robots in a swarm need to share information among themselves regarding their location and signal from targets to decide their future course of action but this information is only meaningful when they all share the same coordinate frame. The paper addresses this very issue by eliminating any dependency of a search algorithm on the need of a predetermined global coordinate frame by the unification of the relative coordinate of individual robots when within the communication range, therefore, making the system more robust in real scenarios. Our algorithm assumes that all the robots in the swarm are equipped with range and bearing sensors and have limited sensing range and communication abilities. Initially, every robot maintains their relative coordinate frame and follow Levy walk random exploration until they come in range with other robots. When two or more robots are within communication range, they share sensor information and their location w.r.t. their coordinate frames based on which we unify their coordinate frames. Now they can share information about the areas that were already explored, information about the surroundings, and target signal from their location to make decisions about their future movement based on the search algorithm. During the process of exploration, there can be several small groups of robots having their own coordinate systems but eventually, it is expected for all the robots to be under one global coordinate frame where they can communicate information on the exploration area following swarm search techniques. Using the proposed method, swarm-based search algorithms can work in a real-world scenario without GPS and any initial information about the size and shape of the environment. Initial simulation results show that running our modified-Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) without global information we can still achieve the desired results that are comparable to basic PSO working with GPS. In the full paper, we plan on doing the comparison study between different strategies to unify the coordinate system and to implement them on other bio-inspired algorithms, to work in GPS denied environment.

Keywords: bio-inspired search algorithms, decentralized control, GPS denied environment, swarm robotics, target searching, unifying coordinate systems

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3120 Depression among Pregnant Women with Husbands Abroad during the Pregnancy

Authors: Usama Bin Zubair, Syed Azhar Ali

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Introduction: Depression is emerging as a major public health problem in all parts of the world. Developing countries have a unique socioeconomic structure that affects the lives of its inhabitants in several ways. Going abroad for employment is one of the common social problems which have been faced by young males in developing countries. This included both highly qualified individuals as well as the labor class. Objective: To determine the difference in the presence of depressive symptoms among pregnant women with husbands living abroad and those with husbands living with them in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Methods: The sample population comprised of pregnant women reporting for an antenatal checkup at Amna hospital Rawalakot. Cases constituted the pregnant women with husbands living abroad while controls were the pregnant women with husbands living with them. Patient health questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) was used to record the presence and severity of depressive symptoms. Age, gestation, parity, rural or urban origin, education, level of family income, daily contact hours on the telephone or what’s app, previous pregnancy loss or complications, number of years abroad and visits to home per year were associated with the presence of depressive symptoms. Findings: The mean age of the study participants was 29.73 ±5.395 years. Sixty-six had significant depression in the case group, while 14 had in the control group (p-value<0.001). Education and rural background had a significant difference between the case and the control group. Less number of visits per year of the husband was strongly linked with the presence of depressive symptoms among the cases. Conclusion: Pregnant women with husbands abroad were found more prone to develop depressive symptoms as compared to those with husbands living with them. Special attention should be paid to the women whose husband had a lesser number of visits to the country.

Keywords: depression, pregnancy, lack of support, war zone

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3119 Entrepreneurship Training of Young People as a Pillar to Generate Income and Create Jobs: Progress Report of the Moroccan National Human Development Initiative in the Region of Meknes

Authors: Bennani Zoubir Nada, El Hiri Abderrazak, El Hajri Aimad

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In context of economic and health crisis, sustainable entrepreneurship has become one of the best solutions to economic recovery. This study is about the third program of the Moroccan national human development initiative in her third phase which began in 2019 and continuous until 2023, and which deals with income improvement and social inclusion of young people, under the high patronage of his majesty the king of Morocco. What is the approach of this program and how entrepreneurship training of young people can be a pillar to generate income and create jobs? Starting on the effectuation theory, we adopted an exploratory qualitative approach through semi-structured interviews with national human development initiative stakeholders in the area of Meknes-Morocco, which allowed us the state of progress of this program. We carried out a survey based on a grid of questions to collect information that we processed using NVIVO software. The most relevant results are that people eligible are jobless young people, who are between 18 and 35 years old, who reside in Meknes and surroundings and who have a project idea. They are trained by experts in entrepreneurship and management through targeted and diversified courses. To ensure the sustainability of projects, the project organisers have provided measures to ensure the sustainability of the companies through continuous monitoring and evaluation as well as support during all phases from the project idea to the realisation and progress.

Keywords: sustainable entrepreneurship, training, social inclusion, national human development initiative in Morocco (INDH), youth entrepreneurship, the effectuation theory

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3118 Immigration without Settlement: Causes and Consequences of Exclusionary Migration Regime in East Asia

Authors: Yen-Fen Tseng

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Studying migration regimes enables one to identify clusters of countries with policy features in common. A few researchers have pointed out the origin of hardship experienced by foreign workers in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, stems from their exclusionary migration regime. This paper aims to understand the causes and consequences of the East Asia migration regime, exploring the common exclusionary policies features of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, focusing on the foreign labor policy. It will then present explanations as to factors shaping migration regime; the perspective of factors within political system is adopted, as opposed to political economy and pluralist society approach. In the minds of political elites across East Asia, there exists a powerful belief in mono-ethnicity, namely, the benefits of mono-ethnicity and the social ill of “minority problems”. Guest workers policies of various alterations become the compromise between the want for foreign labor and the desire to maintain mono-ethnicity. The paper discusses the absence of immigrant settlement and formation of ethnic communities as a result of the reluctant hosts. Migrant workers in these societies commonly suffer from irregular working conditions as well as unprotected rights out of their denied legality. The case of Taiwan will be presented with greater details, drawing on data from both first-hand and secondary sources.

Keywords: migration regime, guest worker policies, East Asia, society

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3117 State, Public Policies, and Rights: Public Expenditure and Social and Welfare Policies in America, as Opposed to Argentina

Authors: Mauro Cristeche

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This paper approaches the intervention of the American State in the social arena and the modeling of the rights system from the Argentinian experience, by observing the characteristics of its federal budgetary system, the evolution of social public spending and welfare programs in recent years, labor and poverty statistics, and the changes on the labor market structure. The analysis seeks to combine different methodologies and sources: in-depth interviews with specialists, analysis of theoretical and mass-media material, and statistical sources. Among the results, it could be mentioned that the tendency to state interventionism (what has been called ‘nationalization of social life’) is quite evident in the United States, and manifests itself in multiple forms. The bibliography consulted, and the experts interviewed pointed out this increase of the state presence in historical terms (beyond short-term setbacks) in terms of increase of public spending, fiscal pressure, public employment, protective and control mechanisms, the extension of welfare policies to the poor sectors, etc. In fact, despite the significant differences between both countries, the United States and Argentina have common patterns of behavior in terms of the aforementioned phenomena. On the other hand, dissimilarities are also important. Some of them are determined by each country's own political history. The influence of political parties on the economic model seems more decisive in the United States than in Argentina, where the tendency to state interventionism is more stable. The centrality of health spending is evident in America, while in Argentina that discussion is more concentrated in the social security system and public education. The biggest problem of the labor market in the United States is the disqualification as a consequence of the technological development while in Argentina it is a result of its weakness. Another big difference is the huge American public spending on Defense. Then, the more federal character of the American State is also a factor of differential analysis against a centralized Argentine state. American public employment (around 10%) is comparatively quite lower than the Argentinian (around 18%). The social statistics show differences, but inequality and poverty have been growing as a trend in the last decades in both countries. According to public rates, poverty represents 14% in The United States and 33% in Argentina. American public spending is important (welfare spending and total public spending represent around 12% and 34% of GDP, respectively), but a bit lower than Latin-American or European average). In both cases, the tendency to underemployment and disqualification unemployment does not assume a serious gravity. Probably one of the most important aspects of the analysis is that private initiative and public intervention are much more intertwined in the United States, which makes state intervention more ‘fuzzy’, while in Argentina the difference is clearer. Finally, the power of its accumulation of capital and, more specifically, of the industrial and services sectors in the United States, which continues to be the engine of the economy, express great differences with Argentina, supported by its agro-industrial power and its public sector.

Keywords: state intervention, welfare policies, labor market, system of rights, United States of America

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3116 Published Financial Statement as a Correlate of Investment Decision among Commercial Bank Stakeholders in Nigeria

Authors: C. F. Popoola, K. Akinsanya, S. B. Babarinde, D. A. Farinde

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This study investigated published financial statement as correlate of investment decision among commercial bank stakeholders in Nigeria. A correlation research design was used in the study. 180 users of published financial statement were purposively sampled from Lagos and Ibadan. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation and regression. The findings of the study revealed that, balance sheet is negatively related with investment decision (r=-.483; p < .01) while income statement (r= .249; p < .001), notes on the account (r= .230; p < .001), cash flow statement (r= .202; p < .001), value added statement (r= .328; p < .001) and five-year financial summary (r= .191 ;p < .01) are positively related with investment decision. Findings also revealed that components of published financial statement significantly predicted good investment decision (R2= .983; F(5,175)=284.5; p < .05) for commercial bank stakeholders. Therefore, it was suggested that Nigeria banks and professional bodies should instigate programs that will increase the knowledge of stakeholders on published financial statement.

Keywords: commercial banks, financial statement, income statement, investment decision, stakeholders

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3115 The Ever-Changing Connection Among Banks and Insurers: An Examination of the Financial Standing of the Financial System

Authors: Iqra Ali

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This study uses panel Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to analyses the dynamic link between banking and insurance activities based on the asset size of the insurance industry for 73 countries between 1980 and 2014. Assets in the insurance industry and banking activities usually have a Granger causal link, according to panel Granger-causality tests. Impulse response analyses for the entire sample show that the size of insurance assets responds favorably to a shock to the liquid liabilities and deposits of the financial system but negatively to a shock to deposit money bank assets and private credit offered by commercial banks, other financial institutions, and deposit banks. While the findings for middle- and low-income nations varied significantly, the observations for high-income countries are essentially the same. Furthermore, we find that there is a substantial interplay between banking and insurance activity in civil law nations as opposed to common law ones.

Keywords: vector autoregression, banking, insurance, Granger-causality

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3114 Distributed Energy Resources in Low-Income Communities: a Public Policy Proposal

Authors: Rodrigo Calili, Anna Carolina Sermarini, João Henrique Azevedo, Vanessa Cardoso de Albuquerque, Felipe Gonçalves, Gilberto Jannuzzi

Abstract:

The diffusion of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has caused structural changes in the relationship between consumers and electrical systems. The Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (PVDG), in particular, is an essential strategy for achieving the 2030 Agenda goals, especially SDG 7 and SDG 13. However, it is observed that most projects involving this technology in Brazil are restricted to the wealthiest classes of society, not yet reaching the low-income population, aligned with theories of energy justice. Considering the research for energy equality, one of the policies adopted by governments is the social electricity tariff (SET), which provides discounts on energy tariffs/bills. However, just granting this benefit may not be effective, and it is possible to merge it with DER technologies, such as the PVDG. Thus, this work aims to evaluate the economic viability of the policy to replace the social electricity tariff (the current policy aimed at the low-income population in Brazil) by PVDG projects. To this end, a proprietary methodology was developed that included: mapping the stakeholders, identifying critical variables, simulating policy options, and carrying out an analysis in the Brazilian context. The simulation answered two key questions: in which municipalities low-income consumers would have lower bills with PVDG compared to SET; which consumers in a given city would have increased subsidies, which are now provided for solar energy in Brazil and for the social tariff. An economic model was created for verifying the feasibility of the proposed policy in each municipality in the country, considering geographic issues (tariff of a particular distribution utility, radiation from a specific location, etc.). To validate these results, four sensitivity analyzes were performed: variation of the simultaneity factor between generation and consumption, variation of the tariff readjustment rate, zeroing CAPEX, and exemption from state tax. The behind-the-meter modality of generation proved to be more promising than the construction of a shared plant. However, although the behind-the-meter modality presents better results than the shared plant, there is a greater complexity in adopting this modality due to issues related to the infrastructure of the most vulnerable communities (e.g., precarious electrical networks, need to reinforce roofs). Considering the shared power plant modality, many opportunities are still envisaged since the risk of investing in such a policy can be mitigated. Furthermore, this modality can be an alternative due to the mitigation of the risk of default, as it allows greater control of users and facilitates the process of operation and maintenance. Finally, it was also found, that in some regions of Brazil, the continuity of the SET presents more economic benefits than its replacement by PVDG. However, the proposed policy offers many opportunities. For future works, the model may include other parameters, such as cost with low-income populations’ engagement, and business risk. In addition, other renewable sources of distributed generation can be studied for this purpose.

Keywords: low income, subsidy policy, distributed energy resources, energy justice

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3113 Design Improvement of Worm Gearing for Better Energy Utilization

Authors: Ahmed Elkholy

Abstract:

Most power transmission cases use gearing in general, and worm gearing, in particular for energy utilization. Therefore, designing gears for minimum weight and maximum power transmission is the main target of this study. In this regard, a new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using a well-established criteria. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire worm gear set loading and stressing was determined. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analytical accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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3112 Integrative System of GDP, Emissions, Health Services and Population Health in Vietnam: Dynamic Panel Data Estimation

Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin

Abstract:

The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.

Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health

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3111 Multidimensional Inequality and Deprivation Among Tribal Communities of Andhra Pradesh, India

Authors: Sanjay Sinha, Mohd Umair Khan

Abstract:

The level of income inequality in India has been worrisome as the World Inequality Report termed it as a “poor and unequal country, with an affluent elite”. As important as income is to understand inequality and deprivation, it is just one dimension. But the historical roots and current realities of inequality and deprivation in India lies in many of the non-income dimensions such as housing, nutrition, education, agency, sense of inclusion etc. which are often ignored, especially in solution-oriented research. The level of inequality and deprivation among the tribal is one such case. There is a corpus of literature establishing that the tribal communities in India are disadvantageous on various grounds. Given their rural geography, issues of access and quality of basic facilities such as education and healthcare are often unaddressed. COVID-19 has further exacerbated this challenge and climate change will make it even more worrying. With this background, a succinct measurement tool at the village level is necessary to design short to medium-term actions with reference to risk mitigation for tribal communities. This research paper examines the level of inequality and deprivation among the tribal communities in the rural areas of Andhra Pradesh state of India using a Multidimensional Inequality and Deprivation Index based on the Alkire-Foster methodology. The methodology is theoretically grounded in the capability approach propounded by Amartya Sen, emphasizing on achieving the “beings and doings” (functionings) an individual reason to value. In the index, the authors have five domains, including Livelihood, Food Security, Education, Health and Housing and these domains are divided into sixteen indicators. This assessment is followed by domain-wise short-term and long-term solutions.

Keywords: Andhra Pradesh, Alkire-Foster methodology, deprivation, inequality, multidimensionality, poverty, tribal

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3110 The Role of Learning in Stimulation Policies to Increase Participation in Lifelong Development: A Government Policy Analysis

Authors: Björn de Kruijf, Arjen Edzes, Sietske Waslander

Abstract:

In an ever-quickly changing society, lifelong development is seen as a solution to labor market problems by politicians and policymakers. In this paper, we investigate how policy instruments are used to increase participation in lifelong development and on which behavioral principles policy is based. Digitization, automation, and an aging population change society and the labor market accordingly. Skills that were once most sought after in the workforce can become abundantly present. For people to remain relevant in the working population, they need to continue adapting new skills useful in the current labor market. Many reports have been written that focus on the role of lifelong development in this changing society and how lifelong development can help keep people adapt and stay relevant. Inspired by these reports, governments have implemented a broad range of policies to support participation in lifelong development. The question we ask ourselves is how government policies promote participation in lifelong development. This stems from a complex interplay of policy instruments and learning. Regulation, economic and soft instruments can be combined to promote lifelong development, and different types of education further complex policies on lifelong development. Literature suggests that different stages in people’s lives might warrant different methods of learning. Governments could anticipate this in their policies. In order to influence people’s behavior, the government can tap into a broad range of sociological, psychological, and (behavioral) economic principles. The traditional economic assumption that behavior is rational is known to be only partially true, and the government can use many biases in human behavior to stimulate participation in lifelong development. In this paper, we also try to find which biases the government taps into to promote participation if they tap into any of these biases. The goal of this paper is to analyze government policies intended to promote participation in lifelong development. To do this, we develop a framework to analyze the policies on lifelong development. We specifically incorporate the role of learning and the behavioral principles underlying policy instruments in the framework. We apply this framework to the case of the Netherlands, where we examine a set of policy documents. We single out the policies the government has put in place and how they are vertically and horizontally related. Afterward, we apply the framework and classify the individual policies by policy instrument and by type of learning. We find that the Dutch government focuses on formal and non-formal learning in their policy instruments. However, the literature suggests that learning at a later age is mainly done in an informal manner through experiences.

Keywords: learning, lifelong development, policy analysis, policy instruments

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3109 Socio-economic Baselining of Selected Icrmp Sites in Southwestern Cebu, Central Philippines

Authors: Rachel Luz P. Vivas-rica, Gloria G. Delan, Christine M. Corrales, Alfonso S. Piquero, Irene A. Monte

Abstract:

ABSTRACT -Selected Integrated Coastal Resource Management Program (ICRMP) sites in Southwestern Cebu were studied employing a stratified proportional sampling method using semi-structured questionnaires. Four hundred sixteen (416) respondents from five barangays with Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and four barangays without marine sanctuaries were considered in the study. Results showed similarity of socio-economic characteristics in terms of average age, majority were middle aged, and married. Households were male dominated, obtained low education for both MPA and Non-MPA areas. In terms of occupation, majority in both areas engaged in fulltime fishing however part time jobs as carpenter, construction worker, driver or farmer as another income source. Most of the households were nuclear families with average family size of five for both MPA and Non-MPA. Fishing experience ranged from less than 1 year to more than 50 years. Fishing grounds were within the 15 kilometer radius of each considered site. Even if the respondents were totally dependent on fishing as a major source of income, still their income is way below the poverty threshold both in the MPA and Non-MPA areas. This is further explained by the marginality of their fishing implements wherein majority uses gill nets, hook & line, spear and paddle boat in fishing. Their volume of catch from an average of 6 hours fishing expedition ranges from half a kilo to a maximum of 4 kilos. Majority are not members of fishing groups or organizations.

Keywords: integrated coastal resource management program, marine protected areas, socio-economic, poverty threshold

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3108 The Effectiveness of Multiple versus Once-Only Membrane Sweeping in Uncomplicated Primi Gravida at 40 Weeks of Gestational Age in a Tertiary Care Hospital, Sri Lanka: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Authors: Jeewantha Ranawaka, Gunawardane Kapila, Wijethunaga Mudiyanselage B. G. Jayathilake

Abstract:

Introduction: Sweeping of the membranes is a fairly simple technique that may positively influence the shift from maintenance of pregnancy to the beginning of labor. Objective: To assess the effectiveness and acceptability of twice versus once-only membrane sweeping in uncomplicated primi gravid at 40 weeks of gestational age in a tertiary care hospital in Sri Lanka. Methods: A randomized controlled clinical trial was done in Ward 05 of Teaching Hospital, Kandy. The participants were primi-gravida with a singleton live fetus who was at 40 weeks of gestation with intact fetal membranes and with a Modified Bishop’s score <5. After randomization both groups received membrane sweeping at 40 weeks of gestation and the experimental group received membrane sweeping after 48 hours (40+2 days). The modified Bishop Score was assessed at 40+5 days. In two groups who did not go into natural labor at 40+5 days were managed according to the ward policy of cervical ripening and with labor induction at 40+5 days. Two different methods were used to assess discomfort and pain. Patient acceptability was assessed using recommendation to another patient and acceptance during next pregnancy. Perinatal, maternal and labour outcomes were assessed. Results: A change of the Bishops score was 67.3% (n= 31 of 46) in experimental group whereas in control group it was 57.5% (n= 38 of 66). (p = 0.21, OR-1.52, CI = 0.6 -3.34). Mean (SD) of Modified Bishop score was 6.36 (1.94) in experimental group and 6.03 (.84) in control group (p = 0.354). The probability of having the spontaneous onset of labour in experimental group was 61.6% (n=74 of 120) whereas in control group it was 45% (n= 54 of 120) (p=0.01, OR-1.966, CI = 1.17 – 3.28 NNT = 5.99). Recommending the method to another among experimental group was 75% (n= 90 of 120) whereas in control group it was 79.2% (n= 95 of 120) (p= 0.443). Accepting membrane Sweeping for subsequent pregnancy among experimental was 72.5% (n=87 of 120) whereas in control group was 72.5% (n=87 of 120) (p= 1.00) Need of formal induction of labour at 40+ 5 days in experimental group was 38.4% (n=46 of 120) whereas in control group was 61.6% (n=66 of 120) (p=0.01, OR=0.5, CI= 0.3 – 0.8, NNT=6). Neonatal outcome, labour outcome such as Cesarean -section rate, need for augmentation and maternal complications such as fever, Premature rupture of membrane, bleeding were comparable in two groups. Conclusions and Recommendations: It can be concluded that twice sweeping of membrane was effective to reduce the need of formal induction of labour and increase the chances of having spontaneous onset of labour (SOL) at 40+5 days without increasing maternal or fetal morbidity. Acceptability of twice sweeping is not different from sweeping once. Hence we recommend consideration of multiple membranes sweeping as first line for women at 40 weeks of gestation.

Keywords: acceptability, induction, labour, membrane sweeping

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3107 Assessing Household Energy Savings and Consumer Behavior in Padang City

Authors: Prima Fithri, Lusi Susanti, Karin Bestarina

Abstract:

Indonesia's electrification ratio is still around 80.1%, which means that approximately 19.9% of households in Indonesia have not been getting the flow of electrical energy. Household electricity consumptions in Indonesia are generally still dominated by the public urban. In the city of Padang, West Sumatera, Indonesia, about 94.10% are power users of government services (PLN). The most important thing of the issue is human resources efficient energy. Consumer behavior in utilizing electricity becomes significant. Intensive questioner survey, in-depth interview and statistical analysis are carried out to collect scientific evidences of the behavioral based changes instruments to reduce electricity consumption in household sector. The questioner was developed to include five factors assuming affect the electricity consumption pattern in household sector. They are: attitude, energy price, household income, knowledge and other determinants. The survey was carried out in Padang, West Sumatra Province Indonesia. About 210 questioner papers were proportionally distributed to households in 11 districts in Padang. Stratified sampling was used as a method to select respondents. The results show that the household size, income, payment methods and size of house are factors affecting electricity saving behavior in residential sector. Household expenses on electricity are strongly influenced by gender, type of job, level of education, size of house, income, payment method and level of installed power. These results provide a scientific evidence for stakeholders on the potential of controlling electricity consumption and designing energy policy by government in residential sector.

Keywords: electricity, energy saving, household, behavior, policy

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3106 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Pharmacy and Pharmacology

Authors: Mamdouh Milad Adly Morkos

Abstract:

Despite having the greatest rates of mortality and morbidity in the world, low- and middle-income (LMIC) nations trail high-income nations in terms of the number of clinical trials, the number of qualified researchers, and the amount of research information specific to their people. Health inequities and the use of precision medicine may be hampered by a lack of local genomic data, clinical pharmacology and pharmacometrics competence, and training opportunities. These issues can be solved by carrying out health care infrastructure development, which includes data gathering and well-designed clinical pharmacology training in LMICs. It will be advantageous if there is international cooperation focused at enhancing education and infrastructure and promoting locally motivated clinical trials and research. This paper outlines various instances where clinical pharmacology knowledge could be put to use, including pharmacogenomic opportunities that could lead to better clinical guideline recommendations. Examples of how clinical pharmacology training can be successfully implemented in LMICs are also provided, including clinical pharmacology and pharmacometrics training programmes in Africa and a Tanzanian researcher's personal experience while on a training sabbatical in the United States. These training initiatives will profit from advocacy for clinical pharmacologists' employment prospects and career development pathways, which are gradually becoming acknowledged and established in LMICs. The advancement of training and research infrastructure to increase clinical pharmacologists' knowledge in LMICs would be extremely beneficial because they have a significant role to play in global health

Keywords: electromagnetic solar system, nano-material, nano pharmacology, pharmacovigilance, quantum theoryclinical simulation, education, pharmacology, simulation, virtual learning low- and middle-income, clinical pharmacology, pharmacometrics, career development pathways

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3105 Resilience of the American Agriculture Sector

Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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3104 Personal and Household Hygiene Measures for Prevention of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections among Children: A Cross Sectional Survey on Parental Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices

Authors: Man Wai Leung, Margaret O’Donoghue, Lorna K. P. Suen

Abstract:

Personal and household hygiene measures are important to prevent upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and other infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). An online survey recruited 414 eligible parents in Hong Kong to study their hygiene knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) in the prevention of URTIs among their children. The average knowledge score was high (10.2/12.0), but some misconceptions were identified. The majority of participants agreed that good personal hygiene (93.5%) and good environmental hygiene (92.8%) can prevent URTIs. The average score for hand hygiene practices was high (3.78/4.00), but only 56.8% of parents always perform hand hygiene before touching their mouth, nose, or eyes. For environmental hygiene, only some household items were disinfected with disinfectants (69.8%: door handles, 60.4%: toilet seats, 42.8%: floor, 24.2%: dining chairs, 20.5%: dining tables). Higher knowledge score was associated with parents having a tertiary educational level or above, working as healthcare professionals, living at private residential flat or staff quarter, and having a household income of $70,000 or above. Hand hygiene practices varied significantly with parents’ age and income. During the 5th wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, misconceptions about hygiene knowledge were found among parents. Health promotion programs should target parents, especially those who are in old age, obtain lower educational levels, live in public housing, or have a lower income. Hand hygiene moments and proper use of disinfectants could be one of the targeted educational topics.

Keywords: hygiene, upper respiratory tract infection, parents, children, COVID-19

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3103 India’s Energy Transition, Pathways for Green Economy

Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

Abstract:

In modern economy, energy is fundamental to virtually every product and service in use. It has been developed on the dependence of abundant and easy-to-transform polluting fossil fuels. On one hand, increase in population and income levels combined with increased per capita energy consumption requires energy production to keep pace with economic growth, and on the other, the impact of fossil fuel use on environmental degradation is enormous. The conflicting policy objectives of protecting the environment while increasing economic growth and employment has resulted in this paradox. Hence, it is important to decouple economic growth from environmental degeneration. Hence, the search for green energy involving affordable, low-carbon, and renewable energies has become global priority. This paper explores a transition to a sustainable energy system using the socio-economic-technical scenario method. This approach takes into account the multifaceted nature of transitions which not only require the development and use of new technologies, but also of changes in user behaviour, policy and regulation. The scenarios that are developed are: baseline business as usual (BAU) as well as green energy (GE). The baseline scenario assumes that the current trends (energy use, efficiency levels, etc.) will continue in future. India’s population is projected to grow by 23% during 2010 –2030, reaching 1.47 billion. The real GDP, as per the model, is projected to grow by 6.5% per year on average between 2010 and 2030 reaching US$5.1 trillion or $3,586 per capita (base year 2010). Due to increase in population and GDP, the primary energy demand will double in two decades reaching 1,397 MTOE in 2030 with the share of fossil fuels remaining around 80%. The increase in energy use corresponds to an increase in energy intensity (TOE/US $ of GDP) from 0.019 to 0.036. The carbon emissions are projected to increase by 2.5 times from 2010 reaching 3,440 million tonnes with per capita emissions of 2.2 tons/annum. However, the carbon intensity (tons per US$ of GDP) decreases from 0.96 to 0.67. As per GE scenario, energy use will reach 1079 MTOE by 2030, a saving of about 30% over BAU. The penetration rate of renewable energy resources will reduce the total primary energy demand by 23% under GE. The reduction in fossil fuel demand and focus on clean energy will reduce the energy intensity to 0.21 (TOE/US$ of GDP) and carbon intensity to 0.42 (ton/US$ of GDP) under the GE scenario. The study develops new ‘pathways out of poverty’ by creating more than 10 million jobs and thus raise the standard of living of low-income people. Our scenarios are, to a great extent, based on the existing technologies. The challenges to this path lie in socio-economic-political domains. However, to attain a green economy the appropriate policy package should be in place which will be critical in determining the kind of investments that will be needed and the incidence of costs and benefits. These results provide a basis for policy discussions on investments, policies and incentives to be put in place by national and local governments.

Keywords: energy, renewables, green technology, scenario

Procedia PDF Downloads 248