Search results for: average value at risk

Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: multiple regression analysis, supply chain management, risk assessment, vendor selection

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: Manoj Gupta, Nirmendra Singh Bhadauria

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Most of the applications in image processing require high spatial and high spectral resolution in a single image. For example satellite image system, the traffic monitoring system, and long range sensor fusion system all use image processing. However, most of the available equipment is not capable of providing this type of data. The sensor in the surveillance system can only cover the view of a small area for a particular focus, yet the demanding application of this system requires a view with a high coverage of the field. Image fusion provides the possibility of combining different sources of information. In this paper, we have decomposed the image using DTCWT and then fused using average and hybrid of (maxima and average) pixel level techniques and then compared quality of both the images using PSNR.

Keywords: image fusion, DWT, DT-CWT, PSNR, average image fusion, hybrid image fusion

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Authors: S. Shaaban, T. McNamara, S. Hudson

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This paper reports on the performance of deliberately unbalanced, reliable, non-automated and assembly lines that merge, whose workstations differ in terms of their mean operation times. Simulations are carried out on 5- and 8-station lines with 1, 2 and 4 buffer capacity units, % degrees of line imbalance of 2, 5 and 12, and 24 different patterns of means imbalance. Data on two performance measures, namely throughput and average buffer level were gathered, statistically analysed and compared to a merging balanced line counterpart. It was found that the best configurations are a balanced line arrangement and a monotone decreasing order for each of the parallel merging lines, with the first generally resulting in a lower throughput and the second leading to a lower average buffer level than those of a balanced line.

Keywords: average buffer level, merging lines, simulation, throughput, unbalanced

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

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Authors: Svetlana Pushkar

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Eco-indicator 99 (EI99) considers fundamental life cycle assessment (LCA) uncertainties via egalitarian/egalitarian (e/e), hierarchist/hierarchist (h/h), individualist/individualist (i/i), individualist/average (i/a), egalitarian/average (e/a), and hierarchist/average (h/a) methodological options. The objective of this study is to provide a reliable two-stage nested mixed balanced Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test as a supplemental test to EI99 to address the problematic combination of similarly and not similarly produced materials usually found in building technologies. The robustness of the test was determined from both the “EI99 (all options)” stage (including e/e, i/i, h/h, e/a, i/a, and h/a - all methodological options) and the “EI99 (perspectives)” stage (including e/e, i/i, and h/h methodological options of EI99 - the methodological options with their particular weighting set or e/a, i/a, and h/a methodological options of EI99 - the methodological options with the average weighting set) of evaluating building technologies.

Keywords: building technologies, LCA uncertainty, Eco-indicator 99, two-stage nested mixed ANOVA test

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Authors: Septiawan A. Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Sutanto Sastraredja

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Measles is a disease which can spread caused by a virus and has been a priority’s Ministry of Health in Indonesia to be solved. Each infected person can be recovered and get immunity so that the spread of the disease can be constructed with susceptible infected recovered (SIR). To prevent the spread of measles transmission, the Ministry of Health holds vaccinations program. The aims of the research are to derive susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR) model, to determine the patterns of disease spread with SVIR model, and also to apply the SVIR model on the spread of measles in Indonesia. Based on the article, it can be concluded that the spread model of measles with vaccinations, that is SVIR model. It is a first-order differential equation system. The patterns of disease spread is determined by solution of the model. Based on that model Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2186 with the average of vaccinations scope about 88% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 4.9%. If it is simulated as Ministry of Health new programs with the average of vaccinations scope about 95% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 3%, then Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2184. Even with the average of vaccinations scope about 100% and no failure of vaccinations, Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2183. Indonesia’s target as a measles-free nation in 2020 has not been reached.

Keywords: measles, vaccination, susceptible infected recovered (SIR), susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR)

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Authors: D. Anderlini, G. Wallis

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Background: The number of people experiencing stroke is steadily increasing due to changes in diet and lifestyle, to longer life expectancy resulting in older population, to higher survival rates as a consequence of improvements during the acute phase. This study considers what risk factors might contribute to delayed entry to hospital for treatment. Methods: We analyzed data from 2472 patients admitted to the Stroke Unit of the Royal Brisbane Women's Hospital, Australia, between 2002 to 2011. Results: Previous studies have reported that factors which can contribute to delay include the patient’s age, the time of day, physical location, visit the GP instead of going to the emergency, means of transport, severity of symptoms and type of stroke. Contrary to findings of other studies, we found a strong correlation between side of lesion and delay in admission: patients with right hemisphere lesions had an average delay of 3.78 days, while patients with left hemisphere lesions had an average delay of 1.49 days. Damage to the right hemisphere generally ends in motor impairment in the non-dominant hand and no speech impediment. In contrast, left hemisphere lesions can result in deficit to; dominant hand function and aphasia which will be noticed even if their impact on performance is relatively minor. A finding which goes against many previous studies, is the fact that women get to the hospital much sooner than men, showing an average delay of 0.92 days in women vs. 3.36 days in men. Conclusion: Acute surgical-pharmacological therapies are most effective if applied immediately after stroke. Hence delays to admission can be crucial to the degree of recovery. The tendency of patients to overlook symptoms of right hemisphere lesion should be the target of information campaigns both for the general public and GPs. Why do men go to hospital so late? We don't know yet! Nevertheless an awareness plan specifically direct to male population should be on the agenda of Health Departments.

Keywords: gender, admission delay, stroke location, bioinformatics, biomedicine

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Authors: Luyao Zhang, Tianyu Wu, Jiayi Li, Carlos-Gustavo Salas-Flores, Saad Lahrichi

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Recent advances in AI have made algorithmic trading a central role in finance. However, current research and applications are disconnected information islands. We propose a generally applicable pipeline for designing, programming, and evaluating algorithmic trading of stock and crypto tokens. Moreover, we provide comparative case studies for four conventional algorithms, including moving average crossover, volume-weighted average price, sentiment analysis, and statistical arbitrage. Our study offers a systematic way to program and compare different trading strategies. Moreover, we implement our algorithms by object-oriented programming in Python3, which serves as open-source software for future academic research and applications.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, AI for finance, fintech, machine learning, moving average crossover, volume weighted average price, sentiment analysis, statistical arbitrage, pair trading, object-oriented programming, python3

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Authors: Onur Arugaslan, Ajay Samant, Devrim Yaman

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Financial advisors and investors seek new assets which could potentially increase portfolio returns and decrease portfolio risk. Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new asset class which could serve in both these roles. There has been very little research done in the area of the risk/return tradeoff in a portfolio consisting of fixed income assets, stocks, and cryptocurrency. The objective of this study is a rigorous examination of this issue. The data used in the study are the monthly returns on 4-week US Treasury Bills, S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The methodology used in the study is the application Modern Portfolio Theory to evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios with varying combinations of these assets, using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Indexes, as well as the Sortino and Modigliani measures. The results of the study would include the ranking of various investment portfolios based on their risk/return characteristics. The conclusions of the study would include objective empirical inference for investors who are interested in including cryptocurrency in their asset portfolios but are unsure of the risk/return implications.

Keywords: financial economics, portfolio diversification, fixed income securities, cryptocurrency, stock indexes

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Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

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Authors: Sarisha Devnath, Oluwatosin A. Ijabadeniyi

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In recent years milk contamination has become a major problem in households; due to the likely occurrence of bacteria, even after the milk has been processed. One such genus of bacteria causing unwanted growth is Bacillus. This research project looks at the presence of spore formers in processed milk from household refrigerators and the effect of pasteurization and high temperature on Bacillus spores activation. 24 samples each of UHT milk and pasteurised milk from 24 households were sampled for the presence of spore formers. While anaerobic spore formers were not found in any of the samples, the average aerobic spore formers in UHT milk and pasteurized milk however were 5.77 cfu/ml and 5.88 cfu/ml respectively. After sequencing, it was detected that the mixed culture contained Bacillus cereus, for both pasteurised and UHT milk samples. For the activation study, raw milk samples were collected and subjected to four different temperatures; 65˚C, 72˚C, 80˚C, 100˚C respectively. Samples were stored for 7 days at 5˚C and 10˚C and analysed daily. The average aerobic spore formers in raw milk for samples stored at 5˚C range between 4.67-6.00 cfu/ml while it ranges between 4.84-6.00 cfu/ml at 10˚C, signifying that the high temperatures could have resulted in germination of dominant spores. Statistical analysis conducted on these results indicated a significant difference between the numbers of colonies present at the different treatment temperatures the bacterium was exposed to. This work showed that household milk may constitute public health risk furthermore; pasteurization and higher temperatures may not be effective to remove aerobic spore formers because of Bacillus spores activation.

Keywords: sporeformers, bacillus, spores, activation, milk

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Mekonen G., Sileshi M., Melkamu M.

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Recharge estimation is important for the assessment and management of groundwater resources effectively. This study applied the soil moisture balance and Baseflow separation methods to estimate groundwater recharge in the Fetam Catchment. It is one of the major catchments understudied from the different catchments in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Surface water has been subjected to high seasonal variation; due to this, groundwater is a primary option for drinking water supply to the community. This research has been conducted to estimate groundwater recharge by using fifteen years of River flow data for the Baseflow separation and ten years of daily meteorological data for the daily soil moisture balance recharge estimating method. The recharge rate by the two methods is 170.5 and 244.9mm/year daily soil moisture and baseflow separation method, respectively, and the average recharge is 207.7mm/year. The average value of annual recharge in the catchment is almost equal to the average recharge in the country, which is 200mm/year. So, each method has its own limitations, and taking the average value is preferable rather than taking a single value. Baseflow provides overestimated result compared to the average of the two, and soil moisture balance is the list estimator. The recharge estimation in the area also should be done by other recharge estimation methods.

Keywords: groundwater, recharge, baseflow separation, soil moisture balance, Fetam catchment

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Authors: Muhammad Ridho Fakhrin, Leni Sagita Riantini, Yusuf Latief

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Based on the 2015-2019 RPJMN data, the realization of toll road infrastructure development in Indonesia experienced a delay of 49% or 904 km of the total plan. One of the major causes of delays in development is caused by institutional factors. The case study taken in this research is the construction of the Trans Sumatra Toll Road (JTTS). The purpose of this research is to identify the institutional forms, functions, roles, duties, and responsibilities of each stakeholder and the risks that occur in the Trans Sumatra Toll Road Infrastructure Development. Risk analysis is implemented on functions, roles, duties, responsibilities of each existing stakeholder and is carried out at the Funding Stage, Technical Planning Stage, and Construction Implementation Stage in JTTS. This research is conducted by collecting data through a questionnaire survey, then processed using statistical methods, such as homogeneity, data adequacy, validity, and reliability test, continued with risk assessment based on a risk matrix. The results of this study are the evaluation and development of institutional functions in risk-based JTTS development can improve time performance and minimize delays in the construction process.

Keywords: institutional, risk management, time performance, toll road

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Authors: Junhong Li, Danni Cheng, Yaxin Luo, Xiaowei Yi, Ke Qiu, Wendu Pang, Minzi Mao, Yufang Rao, Yao Song, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: The number of multiple cancer patients was increasing, and the impact of prior cancer history on salivary gland cancer patients remains unclear. Methods: Clinical, demographic and pathological information on salivary gland cancer patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, and the characteristics and prognosis between patients with a prior cancer and those without prior caner were compared. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional regression models were used for the analysis of prognosis. A risk score model was established to exam the impact of treatment on patients with a prior cancer in different risk groups. Results: A total of 9098 salivary gland cancer patients were identified, and 1635 of them had a prior cancer history. Salivary gland cancer patients with prior cancer had worse survival compared with those without a prior cancer (p<0.001). Patients with a different type of first cancer had a distinct prognosis (p<0.001), and longer latent time was associated with better survival (p=0.006) in the univariate model, although both became nonsignificant in the multivariate model. Salivary gland cancer patients with a prior cancer were divided into low-risk (n= 321), intermediate-risk (n=223), and high-risk (n=62) groups and the results showed that patients at high risk could benefit from surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy, and those at intermediate risk could benefit from surgery. Conclusion: Prior cancer history had an adverse impact on the survival of salivary gland cancer patients, and individualized treatment should be seriously considered for them.

Keywords: prior cancer history, prognosis, salivary gland cancer, SEER

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Authors: Marinko Maslaric, Maja Jokic

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When searching for fast and long term responses, sustainable logistics and supply chain applications have developed irrefutable theories and hypotheses towards market requirements. Nevertheless, there are certain misunderstandings on how the implementation of sustainability principles (social, economical, and environmental) and concepts should work in practice, more specifically, within a humanitarian supply chain management context. This paper will focus on the review and analysis of risk management concepts in humanitarian supply chain in order to identify their compliance with sustainable principles. In this direction, the study will look for strategies that suggest: minimization of environmental impacts throughout the reduction of resources consumption, depreciation of logistics costs, including supply chain ones, minimization of transportation and service costs, elaboration of quality performance of supply chain and logistics, and reduction of supply chain delivery time. On the side of meeting all defense, trades and humanitarian logistics needs, the research will be aligned to UN Sustainable Development Goals, standards, and performances. It will start with relevant strategies for identification of risk indicators and it will end with suggestion of valuable strategic approaches for their minimization or total prevention. Finally, a content analysis will propose a suitable methodological structure for the creation of most sustainable strategy in risk management of humanitarian supply chain. Content analysis will accompany thorough, consistent and methodical approach of literature review for potential disaster risk management plan. Thereupon, the propositions of this research will look for contemporary literature gaps, with respect to operate the literature analysis and to suggest the appropriate sustained risk low master plan. The indicated is here to secure the high quality of logistics practices in hazardous events.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, sustainability, supply chain risk, risk management plan

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Authors: A. Asambe

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A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures

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Authors: Saowanit Sukparungsee

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Generally, the traditional Shewhart p chart has been developed by for charting the binomial data. This chart has been developed using the normal approximation with condition as low defect level and the small to moderate sample size. In real applications, however, are away from these assumptions due to skewness in the exact distribution. In this paper, a modified Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chat for detecting a change in binomial data by improving square root transformations, namely ISRT p EWMA control chart. The numerical results show that ISRT p EWMA chart is superior to ISRT p chart for small to moderate shifts, otherwise, the latter is better for large shifts.

Keywords: number of defects, exponentially weighted moving average, average run length, square root transformations

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Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

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Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

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Authors: Ari Istiany, Guspri Devi Artanti, M. Si

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Based on the results Riskesdas, it is known that breastfeeding awareness about the importance of exclusive breastfeeding is still low at only 15.3 %. These conditions resulted in a very infant at risk for infectious diseases, such as diarrhea and acute respiratory infection. Therefore, the aim of this study to evaluate the video development about exclusive breastfeeding as a nutrition education media for posyandu cadre. This research used development methods for making the video about exclusive breastfeeding. The study was conducted in urban areas Rawamangun, East Jakarta. Respondents of this study were 1 media experts from the Department of Educational Technology - UNJ, 2 subject matter experts from Department of Home Economics - UNJ and 20 posyandu cadres to assess the quality of the video. Aspects assessed include the legibility of text, image display quality, color composition, clarity of sound, music appropriateness, duration, suitability of the material and language. Data were analyzed descriptively likes frequency distribution table, the average value, and deviation standard. The result of this study showed that the average score assessment according to media experts, subject matter experts, and posyandu cadres respectively was 3.43 ± 0.51 (good), 4.37 ± 0.52 (very good) and 3.6 ± 0.73 (good). The conclusion is on exclusive breastfeeding video as feasible as a media for nutrition education. While suggestions for the improvement of visual media is multiply illustrations, add material about the correct way of breastfeeding and healthy baby pictures.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, posyandu cadre, video, nutrition education

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Authors: Abiodun Musbau Lawal, Benjamin Oladapo Olley

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Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high-risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. A questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. The intervention had a significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test(t{7}=6.01, p<.01) and at followup (t{7}=6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14}=- 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14}= -9.56, p < .05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in the control group. Drivers in an experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in the control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, sexual risk behaviours

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Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

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In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

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Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

Abstract:

Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

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Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

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Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis with novel elements to assess the influence and dissemination of research results and to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The population under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: food supply chain, risk assessment, scientometrics, web of science

Procedia PDF Downloads 494