Search results for: post classification change detection

Authors: Dan W. Rhodes, Juliane Hey, Magali Karagueuzian, Florianne Martinez, Yael Sandowski, Vanessa Roulet, Mahmoud Badawi, Mohammed-Amine Chakir, Valérie Simon, Jérémie Gautier, Françoise Le Boulaire, Catherine Coignard, Claire Vincent, Sandrine Greaume, Isabelle Voisin

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Background: Beckman Coulter, Inc. (BEC) has recently developed a fully automated second-generation anti-HCV test on a new immunoassay platform. The objective of this multicenter study conducted in Europe was to evaluate the performance of the ACCESS anti-HCV assay on the recently CE-marked DxI 9000 ACCESS Immunoassay Analyzer as an aid in the diagnosis of HCV (Hepatitis C Virus) infection and as a screening test for blood and plasma donors. Methods: The clinical specificity of the ACCESS anti-HCV assay was determined using HCV antibody-negative samples from blood donors and hospitalized patients. Sample antibody status was determined by a CE-marked anti-HCV assay (Abbott ARCHITECTTM anti-HCV assay or Abbott PRISM HCV assay) with an additional confirmation method (Immunoblot testing with INNO-LIATM HCV Score - Fujirebio), if necessary, according to pre-determined testing algorithms. The clinical sensitivity was determined using known HCV antibody-positive samples, identified positive by Immunoblot testing with INNO-LIATM HCV Score - Fujirebio. HCV RNA PCR or genotyping was available on all Immunoblot positive samples for further characterization. The false initial reactive rate was determined on fresh samples from blood donors and hospitalized patients. Thirty (30) commercially available seroconversion panels were tested to assess the sensitivity for early detection of HCV infection. The study was conducted from November 2019 to March 2022. Three (3) external sites and one (1) internal site participated. Results: Clinical specificity (95% CI) was 99.7% (99.6 – 99.8%) on 5852 blood donors and 99.0% (98.4 – 99.4%) on 1527 hospitalized patient samples. There were 15 discrepant samples (positive on ACCESS anti-HCV assay and negative on both ARCHITECT and Immunoblot) observed with hospitalized patient samples, and of note, additional HCV RNA PCR results showed five (5) samples had positive HCV RNA PCR results despite the absence of HCV antibody detection by ARCHITECT and Immunoblot, suggesting a better sensitivity of the ACCESS anti-HCV assay with these five samples compared to the ARCHITECT and Immunoblot anti-HCV assays. Clinical sensitivity (95% CI) on 510 well-characterized, known HCV antibody-positive samples was 100.0% (99.3 – 100.0%), including 353 samples with known HCV genotypes (1 to 6). The overall false initial reactive rate (95% CI) on 6630 patient samples was 0.02% (0.00 – 0.09%). Results obtained on 30 seroconversion panels demonstrated that the ACCESS anti-HCV assay had equivalent sensitivity performances, with an average bleed difference since the first reactive bleed below one (1), compared to the ARCHITECTTM anti-HCV assay. Conclusion: The newly developed ACCESS anti-HCV assay from BEC for use on the DxI 9000 ACCESS Immunoassay Analyzer demonstrated high clinical sensitivity and specificity, equivalent to currently marketed anti-HCV assays, as well as a low false initial reactive rate.

Keywords: DxI 9000 ACCESS Immunoassay Analyzer, HCV, HCV antibody, Hepatitis C virus, immunoassay

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Authors: Billy Moore, Izaiah Smith, Dominic Mckinney, Andrew Cisco, Mehdi Kabir

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Phase-change materials (PCMs) are considered one of the most promising substances to be engaged passively in thermal management and storage systems for spacecraft, where it is critical to diminish the overall mass of the onboard thermal storage system while minimizing temperature fluctuations upon drastic changes in the environmental temperature within the orbit stage. This makes the development of effective thermal management systems more challenging since there is no atmosphere in outer space to take advantage of natural and forced convective heat transfer. PCM can store or release a tremendous amount of thermal energy within a small volume in the form of latent heat of fusion in the phase-change processes of melting and solidification from solid to liquid or, conversely, during which temperature remains almost constant. However, the existing PCMs pose very low thermal conductivity, leading to an undesirable increase in total thermal resistance and, consequently, a slow thermal response time. This often turns into a system bottleneck from the thermal performance perspective. To address the above-mentioned drawback, the present study aims to design and develop various heat sinks featured by nano-structured graphitic foams (i.e., carbon foam), expanded graphite (EG), and open-cell copper foam (OCCF) infiltrated with a conventional paraffin wax PCM with a melting temperature of around 35 °C. This study focuses on the use of passive thermal management techniques to develop efficient heat sinks to maintain the electronics circuits’ and battery module’s temperature within the thermal safety limit for small spacecraft and satellites such as the Pumpkin and OPTIMUS battery modules designed for CubeSats with a cross-sectional area of approximately 4˝×4˝. Thermal response times for various heat sinks are assessed in a vacuum chamber to simulate space conditions.

Keywords: heat sink, porous foams, phase-change material (PCM), spacecraft thermal management

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Authors: Martyna Chotomska, Aleksandra Studzinska, Marta Lisowska, Justyna Szubert, Aleksandra Tabis, Jacek Bania, Arkadiusz Miazek

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Objectives: Assessing antigen-specific T cell responses is of utmost importance for the pre-clinical testing of prototype vaccines against intracellular pathogens and tumor antigens. Mainly two types of in vitro assays are used for this purpose 1) enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) and 2) intracellular cytokine staining (ICS). Both are time-consuming, relatively expensive, and require manual dexterity. Here, we assess if a straightforward detection of luciferase activity in blood samples of transgenic reporter mice expressing a secreted Lucia luciferase under the transcriptional control of IFN-γ promoter parallels the sensitivity of IFNγ ELISpot assay. Methods: IFN-γ-LUCIA mouse strain carrying multiple copies of Lucia luciferase transgene under the transcriptional control of IFNγ minimal promoter were generated by pronuclear injection of linear DNA. The specificity of transgene expression and mobilization was assessed in vitro using transgenic splenocytes exposed to various mitogens. The IFN-γ-LUCIA mice were immunized with 50mg of ovalbumin (OVA) emulsified in incomplete Freund’s adjuvant three times every two weeks by subcutaneous injections. Blood samples were collected before and five days after each immunization. Luciferase activity was assessed in blood serum. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were separated and assessed for frequencies of OVA-specific IFNγ-secreting T cells. Results: We show that in vitro cultured splenocytes of IFN-γ-LUCIA mice respond by 2 and 3 fold increase in secreted luciferase activity to T cell mitogens concanavalin A and phorbol myristate acetate, respectively but fail to respond to B cell-stimulating E.coli lipopolysaccharide. Immunization of IFN-γ-LUCIA mice with OVA leads to over 4 fold increase in luciferase activity in blood serum five days post-immunization with a barely detectable increase in OVA-specific, IFNγ-secreting T cells by ELISpot. Second and third immunizations, further increase the luciferase activity and coincidently also increase the frequencies of OVA-specific T cells by ELISpot. Conclusions: We conclude that minimally invasive monitoring of luciferase secretions in blood serum of IFN-γ-LUCIA mice constitutes a sensitive method for evaluating primary and memory Th1 responses to protein antigens. As such, this method may complement existing methods for rapid immunogenicity assessment of prototype vaccines.

Keywords: ELISpot, immunogenicity, interferon-gamma, reporter mice, vaccines

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Authors: Mohamed F. Sadek, Safaa M. Hassan, Safwat S. Gabr

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Several alteration zones hosting gold mineralization are wide spreading in the South Eastern Desert of Egypt where gold has been mined from many localities since the time of the Pharaohs. The Sukkari is the only mine currently producing gold in the Eastern Desert of Egypt. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct more detailed studies on these locations using modern exploratory methods. The remote sensing plays an important role in lithological mapping and detection of associated hydrothermal mineralization particularly the exploration of gold mineralization. This study is focused on three localities in South Eastern Desert of Egypt, namely Beida, Defiet and Hoteib-Eiqat aiming to detect the gold-bearing hydrothermal alteration zones using the integrated data of remote sensing, field study and mineralogical investigation. Generally, these areas are dominated by Precambrian basement rocks including metamorphic and magmatic assemblages. They comprise ophiolitic serpentinite-talc carbonate, island-arc metavolcanics which were intruded by syn to late orogenic mafic and felsic intrusions mainly gabbro, granodiorite and monzogranite. The processed data of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) and Landsat-8 images are used in the present study to map the gold bearing-hydrothermal alteration zones. Band rationing and principal component analysis techniques are used to discriminate the different lithologic units exposed in the studied three areas. Field study and mineralogical investigation have been used to verify the remote sensing data. This study concluded that, the integrated remote sensing data with geological, field and mineralogical investigations are very effective in lithological discrimination, detailed geological mapping and detection of the gold-bearing hydrothermal alteration zones. More detailed exploration for gold mineralization with the help of remote sensing techniques is recommended to evaluate its potentiality in the study areas.

Keywords: pan-african, Egypt, landsat-8; ASTER, gold, alteration zones

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Authors: Aleksandra Szurlej-Kielanska, Lucyna Pilacka, Dariusz Górecki

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The dynamic development of wind energy requires the simultaneous implementation of effective systems minimizing the risk of collisions between birds and wind turbines. Wind turbines are installed in more and more challenging locations, often close to the natural environment of birds. More and more countries and organizations are defining guidelines for the necessary functionality of such systems. The minimum bird detection distance, trajectory tracking, and shutdown time are key factors in eliminating collisions. Since 2020, we have continued the survey on the validation of the subsequent version of the BPS detection and reaction system. Bird protection system (BPS) is a fully automatic camera system which allows one to estimate the distance of the bird to the turbine, classify its size and autonomously undertake various actions depending on the bird's distance and flight path. The BPS was installed and tested in a real environment at a wind turbine in northern Poland and Central Spain. The performed validation showed that at a distance of up to 300 m, the BPS performs at least as well as a skilled ornithologist, and large bird species are successfully detected from over 600 m. In addition, data collected by BPS systems installed in Spain showed that 60% of the detections of all birds of prey were from individuals approaching the turbine, and these detections meet the turbine shutdown criteria. Less than 40% of the detections of birds of prey took place at wind speeds below 2 m/s while the turbines were not working. As shown by the analysis of the data collected by the system over 12 months, the system classified the improved size of birds with a wingspan of more than 1.1 m in 90% and the size of birds with a wingspan of 0.7 - 1 m in 80% of cases. The collected data also allow the conclusion that some species keep a certain distance from the turbines at a wind speed of over 8 m/s (Aquila sp., Buteo sp., Gyps sp.), but Gyps sp. and Milvus sp. remained active at this wind speed on the tested area. The data collected so far indicate that BPS is effective in detecting and stopping wind turbines in response to the presence of birds of prey with a wingspan of more than 1 m.

Keywords: protecting birds, birds monitoring, wind farms, green energy, sustainable development

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Authors: Samir Roy

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This paper investigates the relationship among knowledge, technology, and empowerment. In Physics power is defined as rate of doing work. In everyday use, the meaning of the word power is related to the capacity to bring change of value in the world. It appears that the popular aphorism “Knowledge is power” should be revisited in the context of contemporary states of affairs. For instance, classical mechanics is a system of knowledge, so also thermodynamics. But neither of them, per se, is sufficient to produce automobilin es. Boolean algebra, the logical foundation of digital electronic computers, was introduced by George Boole in 1847. But that knowledge was practically useless for almost one hundred years until digital electronics was developed in early twentieth century, which eventually led to invention of digital electronic computers. Empowerment of women is a burning issue in the arena of social justice. However, if we carefully analyze the functional elements of women’s empowerment, we find them to be highly technology driven as well as technology dependent in real life. On the other hand, technology has empowered modern states to maintain social order and promote democracy in an effective manner. This paper includes a few case studies to establish the close correspondence between knowledge, especially scientific knowledge, technology, and empowerment. It appears that in contemporary scenario, “Technology is power” is a more appropriate statement than the traditional aphorism “Knowledge is power”.

Keywords: knowledge, science, technology, empowerment, change, social justice

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Authors: Wenqi Liu, Reginald Bailey

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This study proposes a comprehensive and effective approach to business-to-business (B2B) sales forecasting by integrating advanced machine learning models with a rule-based decision-making framework. The methodology addresses the critical challenge of optimizing sales pipeline performance and improving conversion rates through predictive analytics and actionable insights. The first component involves developing a classification model to predict the likelihood of conversion, aiming to outperform traditional methods such as logistic regression in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Feature importance analysis highlights key predictive factors, such as client revenue size and sales velocity, providing valuable insights into conversion dynamics. The second component focuses on forecasting sales value using a regression model, designed to achieve superior performance compared to linear regression by minimizing mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and maximizing R-squared metrics. The regression analysis identifies primary drivers of sales value, further informing data-driven strategies. To bridge the gap between predictive modeling and actionable outcomes, a rule-based decision framework is introduced. This model categorizes leads into high, medium, and low priorities based on thresholds for conversion probability and predicted sales value. By combining classification and regression outputs, this framework enables sales teams to allocate resources effectively, focus on high-value opportunities, and streamline lead management processes. The integrated approach significantly enhances lead prioritization, increases conversion rates, and drives revenue generation, offering a robust solution to the declining pipeline conversion rates faced by many B2B organizations. Our findings demonstrate the practical benefits of blending machine learning with decision-making frameworks, providing a scalable, data-driven solution for strategic sales optimization. This study underscores the potential of predictive analytics to transform B2B sales operations, enabling more informed decision-making and improved organizational outcomes in competitive markets.

Keywords: machine learning, XGBoost, regression, decision making framework, system engineering

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Authors: Galit Truman Zinman

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The 'Islamic State' (IS) is one of the most successful jihadist groups in the modern history. The 'Islamic State' strives to realize the idea of erasing the borders between Muslim countries and establishing a wide Islamic caliphate. The 'Islamic State' is based on religious unity and opposition to existing political order. In this paper, the main argument is that the 'Islamic State' is characterized by two significant tendencies of state-building: preservation and change. The methodology of this study is based on the process tracing method and the analysis of primary sources: decisions, announcements and speeches of religious leaders of the Islamic State, slogans, rituals and symbols, audio and video clips produced by the Al-Hayat Media Center, films distributed on YouTube, as well as the content analysis of Dabiq`s articles (IS official Journal) and nasheeds (jihadi songs). The major findings of this study indicate that in practice the 'Islamic State' uses the same socio-political functions typical to the modern state (preservation), but introduces a different religious-ideological content (change). On the one hand, there is a preservation of the principles of existing modern state. Even with the rejection of secularization, globalization, and nationalism, there is an establishment of typical modern nation-state patterns. It is still a state entity, which has an ideological infrastructure, territory, population, governance and a monopoly on the use of violence, security services, justice system, tax collection, etc. All these functions characterize the modern state, and despite the desire of the 'Islamic State' to create a new kind of state, it reminds patterns of the typical modern nation-state. As for the religious-ideological content of the new state, here we can see a tendency of great change. The 'Islamic State' aims to create an Islamic caliphate which would allow the establishment of religious law and order, under a big commitment to return civilization to a seventh-century environment. The 'Islamic State' favors the fight against Western culture and its liberal ideology. It supports the struggle for global jihad against the unbelievers. Today, despite the territorial 'contraction' and the undermining of the organization's governance in Iraq and Syria, the 'Islamic State' continues to maintain its brand among jihadist activists around the world.

Keywords: Islamic State, Islamic caliphate, modern nation-state, religious law and order

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Surini Duthika Fernandopulle, Kalamba Arachchige Pramodya Wijesinghe

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Macrocapsules containing phase change material (PCM) PEG4000 as core and Calcium Alginate as the shell was synthesized by in-situ polymerization process, and their suitability for textile applications was studied. PCM macro-capsules were sandwiched between two polyurethane foams at regular intervals, and the sandwiched foams were subsequently covered with 100% cotton woven fabrics. According to the mathematical modelling and calculations 46 capsules were required to provide cooling for a period of 2 hours at 56ºC, so a panel of 10 cm x 10 cm area with 25 parts (having 5 capsules in each for 9 parts are 16 parts spaced for air permeability) were effectively merged into one textile material without changing the textile's original properties. First, the available cooling techniques related to textiles were considered and the best cooling techniques suiting the Sri Lankan climatic conditions were selected using a survey conducted for Sri Lankan Public based on ASHRAE-55-2010 standard and it consisted of 19 questions under 3 sections categorized as general information, thermal comfort sensation and requirement of Personal Cooling Garments (PCG). The results indicated that during daytime, majority of respondents feel warm and during nighttime also majority have responded as slightly warm. The survey also revealed that around 85% of the respondents are willing to accept a PCG. The developed panels were characterized using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) tests and the findings from FTIR showed that the macrocapsules consisted of PEG 4000 as the core material and Calcium Alginate as the shell material and findings from TGA showed that the capsules had the average weight percentage for core with 61,9% and shell with 34,7%. After heating both control samples and samples incorporating PCM panels, it was discovered that only the temperature of the control sample increased after 56ºC, whereas the temperature of the sample incorporating PCM panels began to regulate the temperature at 56ºC, preventing a temperature increase beyond 56ºC.

Keywords: phase change materials, thermal regulation, textiles, macrocapsules

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Elnur Abbasov

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Energy security and climate change comprise some of the most important concerns facing humankind today and probably in the future if they are not addressed appropriately. In order to stabilize the global climate, there is the need for the world to lessen its use of fossil energy, which requires enhancement of current energy efficiency as well as the development of novel energy sources, such as energy obtained from renewable sources. There is no doubt that the steady transition towards a solar-based economy is likely to result in the development of completely new sectors, behaviours, and jobs that are pro-environmental. Azerbaijan Republic as the largest nation state in the South Caucasus Region has the potential for using and developing the renewable sources of energy in order to support the environmental challenge resolution associated with the climate change, improving the environmental situation in the country. Solar PV comprises one of the direct usages of solar energy. In this paper, sustainable PV usage scenario in residential houses was introduced to reduce negative environmental effects of land use, water consumption, air pollution etc. It was recommended by an author that, PV systems can be part of function and design of residential building components: such as roofs, walls, windows.

Keywords: energy efficiency, environmentally friendly, photovoltaic engineering, sustainable energy usage scenario

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Rabab Bamboat, Reenu Singh

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Today, contemporary modular interior design components provide us the ease to rethink or change our spaces with flexibility. Specifically, contemporary design is perfect for all those people who feel the need to “change” to feel at home again. The variables such as color, furniture, furnishings, fixtures are some of the elements that are changed and re-furnished at periodic intervals. With contemporary interior design, one can customize the interiors to suit the respective personality and passions. A questionnaire survey was conducted to understand how contemporary interior design and its variables play an important role and should be applied while designing an interior space in today's time. Thus, helping us understand better the needs of people and what they would prefer whilst one keeps practicality and functionality in mind. Based on the analysis and extensive literature review, the study develops an understanding of how contemporary interior design should be applied in today's day and age, making living more practical easy but also stylish. The findings provide a more sustainable, functional, simple, and classy way of living while having customed furniture, color, art in an interior space. These variables provided solutions for effective ideation to support the functionality in a minimal and contemporary interior space. This concludes in providing a better understanding to the designers to incorporate a minimalist or contemporary lifestyle while keeping their requirements and other factors in mind.

Keywords: contemporary, minimal, practicality, personality

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Abimanyu S. Aji, Ima Yusmanita, R. A .Retno Hastijanti, Yudha Utama

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The impacts of climate change are increasingly affecting major cities around the world. In April 2024, floods paralyzed Dubai, while in May of the same year, the city of Sao Leopoldo in southern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, experienced significant flooding that resulted in hundreds of casualties. In Europe, extreme weather along the Czech-Polish border caused rivers to overflow, carrying debris that destroyed historic cities and bridges and damaged homes. By the end of October 2024, further torrential flooding in Valencia, Spain, led to fatalities. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian cities, particularly Jakarta, are also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and face the threat of being submerged due to rising sea levels. In response, the Indonesian government plans to relocate the capital to East Kalimantan, as Jakarta is no longer suitable as the capital city due to major urban problems and the impact of climate change. Given these circumstances, urgent action is needed to develop climate-resilient urban mitigation and adaptation strategies. One promising approach involves developing public space infrastructure that serves multiple functions, enhances resilience, and improves community welfare. Current urban design trends that adapt to climate change can create a new typology of spaces that respond to present or future climatic conditions. Small-scale interventions, such as designing and developing climate-resilient public spaces strategically located within spatial planning, can drive large-scale changes by transforming the urban context and enhancing the city's resilience to climate change. Public spaces represent the identity of a city, and functional public spaces that consider natural elements foster a harmonious interaction between the city and its environment. Additionally, the environmental design of these public spaces can help reduce hot temperatures in densely populated urban areas. The objective of this research is to identify suitable public spaces for transformation that can address climate adaptation challenges. Strategies for creating climate-resilient urban public spaces are categorized into two main aspects: tangible and intangible. Intangible strategies focus on community engagement and incorporate the ‘Penta Helix’ model, which includes five key elements: government, community, academia, business, and media. Tangible strategies encompass infrastructure design that adapts to climate change and adheres to several key principles: community co-creation, community health and welfare, learning through local themes, encouraging behavior change and new habits, fostering green entrepreneurship, enhancing environmental resilience, and promoting ecosystem integration. The outcome of these strategies is to create distinctive and inclusive public space architecture, including biophilic design elements. The methodologies employed in this study include both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The result of this study is a strategic concept that outlines key principles for designing community-centered and climate-responsive public spaces. By identifying the vital role of public spaces, this strategy can serve as a foundation for city-level climate adaptation efforts and raise awareness about the urgency of urban resilience, leveraging existing infrastructure opportunities. Furthermore, this research contributes to the global understanding of resilient urban design, offering valuable insights for other regions facing similar challenges.

Keywords: climate adaptation, city resilience, urban public space, community engagement

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Authors: Mohammad-Ali Latifi, Harry Bouwman

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Changes in the business environment accelerated dramatically over the last decades as a result of changes in technology, regulation, market, and competitors’ behavior. Firms need to change the way they do business in order to survive or maintain their growth. Innovating business model (BM) can create competitive advantages and enhance firm performance. However, many companies fail to achieve expected outcomes in practice, mostly due to irreversible fundamental changes in key components of the company’s BM. This leads to more ambiguity, uncertainty, and risks associated with business performance. However, the relationship among BM Innovation, moderating factors, and the firm’s overall performance is by and large ignored in the current literature. In this study, we identified twenty moderating factors from our comprehensive literature review. We categorized these factors based on two criteria regarding the extent to which: the moderating factors can be controlled and managed by firms, and they are generic or specific changes to the firms. This leads to four moderation groups. The first group is BM implementation, which includes management support, employees’ commitment, employees’ skills, communication, detailed plan. The second group is called BM practices, which consists of BM tooling, BM experimentation, the scope of change, speed of change, degree of novelty. The third group is Firm characteristics, including firm size, age, and ownership. The last group is called Industry characteristics, which considers the industry sector, competitive intensity, industry life cycle, environmental dynamism, high-tech vs. low-tech industry. Through collecting data from 508 European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and using the structural equation modeling technique, the developed moderation model was examined. Results revealed that all factors highlighted through these four groups moderate the relation between BMI and firm performance significantly. Particularly, factors related to BM-Implementation and BM-Practices are more manageable and would potentially improve firm overall performance. We believe that this result is more important for researchers and practitioners since the possibility of working on factors in Firm characteristics and Industry characteristics groups are limited, and the firm can hardly control and manage them to improve the performance of BMI efforts.

Keywords: business model innovation, firm performance, implementation, moderation

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Authors: Jaishree Ranganathan, Poonam Rajurkar, Angelina A. Tzacheva, Zbigniew W. Ras

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In today’s world, business often depends on the customer feedback and reviews. Sentiment analysis helps identify and extract information about the sentiment or emotion of the of the topic or document. Attribute selection is a challenging problem, especially with large datasets in actionable pattern mining algorithms. Action Rule Mining is one of the methods to discover actionable patterns from data. Action Rules are rules that help describe specific actions to be made in the form of conditions that help achieve the desired outcome. The rules help to change from any undesirable or negative state to a more desirable or positive state. In this paper, we present a Lexicon based weighted scheme approach to identify emotions from customer feedback data in the area of manufacturing business. Also, we use Rough sets and explore the attribute selection method for large scale datasets. Then we apply Actionable pattern mining to extract possible emotion change recommendations. This kind of recommendations help business analyst to improve their customer service which leads to customer satisfaction and increase sales revenue.

Keywords: actionable pattern discovery, attribute selection, business data, data mining, emotion

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Authors: Chalakorn Chitsaart, Suchada Rianmora, Mann Rattana-Areeyagon, Wutichai Namjaiprasert

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G-code is the main factor in computer numerical control (CNC) machine for controlling the tool-paths and generating the profile of the object’s features. For obtaining high surface accuracy of the surface finish, non-stop operation is required for CNC machine. Recently, to design a new product, the strategy that concerns about a change that has low impact on business and does not consume lot of resources has been introduced. Cost and time for designing minor changes can be reduced since the traditional geometric details of the existing models are applied. In order to support this strategy as the alternative channel for machining operation, this research proposes the automatic generating codes for CNC milling operation. Using this technique can assist the manufacturer to easily change the size and the geometric shape of the product during the operation where the time spent for setting up or processing the machine are reduced. The algorithm implemented on MATLAB platform is developed by analyzing and evaluating the geometric information of the part. Codes are created rapidly to control the operations of the machine. Comparing to the codes obtained from CAM, this developed algorithm can shortly generate and simulate the cutting profile of the part.

Keywords: geometric shapes, milling operation, minor changes, CNC Machine, G-code, cutting parameters

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Authors: Tuba Senel Zor, Oktay Aslan

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With current trends in nanoscience and nanotechnology (NST), scientists have paid much attention to education and nanoliteracy in parallel with the developments on these fields. To understand the advances in NST research requires a population with a high degree of science literacy. All citizens should soon need nanoliteracy in order to navigate some of the important science-based issues faced to their everyday lives. While the fields of NST are advancing rapidly and raising their societal significance, general public’s awareness of these fields has remained at a low level. Moreover, students enrolled different education levels and teachers don’t have awareness at expected level. This problem may be stemmed from inadequate education and training. To remove the inadequacy, teachers have greatest duties and responsibilities. Especially science teachers at all levels need to be made aware of these developments and adequately prepared so that they are able to teach about these advances in a developmentally appropriate manner. If the teachers develop understanding and awareness of NST, they can also discuss the topic with their students. Therefore, the awareness and conceptual understandings of both the teachers who will teach science to students and the students who will be introduced about NST should be increased, and the necessary training should be provided. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of NST education on preservice science teachers’ awareness of NST. The study was designed in one group pre-test post-test quasi-experimental pattern. The study was conducted with 32 preservice science teachers attending the Elementary Science Education Program at a large Turkish university in central Anatolia. NST education was given during five weeks as two hours per week. Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Awareness Questionnaire was used as data collected tool and was implemented for pre-test and post-test. The collected data were analyzed using Statistical package for the Social Science (SPSS). The results of data analysis showed that there was a significant difference (z=6.25, p< .05) on NST awareness of preservice science teachers after implemented NST education. The results of the study indicate that NST education has an important effect for improving awareness of preservice science teachers on NST.

Keywords: awareness level, nanoliteracy, nanoscience and nanotechnology education, preservice science teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Magy Atef Awad Attia

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The objective of this study was to study the effect of social stories on social interaction of students with autism. The sample was at level 5 student with autism, Another University Demonstration School student, who was diagnosed by the Physician as High Functioning Autism since he was able to read, write, calculate and was studying in inclusive classroom. However, he still had disability in social interaction to participate in social activity group and communication. He could not learn how to develop friendship or create relationship. He had inappropriate behavior in social context. He did not understand complex social situations. In addition, he did seemed to not know time and place. He was not able to understand feeling of oneself as well as the others. Consequently, he could not express his emotion appropriately. He did not understand or express his non-verbal language for communicating with friends. He lacked of common interest or emotion with nearby persons. He greeted inappropriately or was not interested in greeting. In addition, he did not have eye contact. He used inadequate language etc. He was elected by Purposive Sampling. His parents were willing to allow them to participate in this study. The research instruments were the lesson plan of social stories, and the picture book of social stories. The instruments used for data collection, were the social interaction evaluation of autistic students. This research was Experimental Research as One Group Pre-test, Post-test Design. For the Pre-test, the experiment was conducted by social stories. Then, the Post-test was implemented. The statistic used for data analysis. The research results were shown by scale. The results revealed that the autistic students taught by social stories indicated better social reaction after being taught by social stories.

Keywords: autism, autistic behavior, stability, harsh environments, techniques, thermal, properties, materials, applications, brittleness, fragility, disadvantages, bank, branches, profitability, setting prediction, effective target, measurement, evaluation, performance, commercial, business, sustainability, financial, system.

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Yousef Reda

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Pancreatic cancer has an overall dismal prognosis. CT, MRI and Endoscopic Ultrasound are most often used to establish the diagnosis. We present a case of a patient found on abdominal CT and MRI to have an 8 mm cystic lesion within the head of the pancreas which was thought to be a benign intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Further evaluation by EUS demonstrated a 1 cm predominantly solid mass that was proven to be an adenocarcinoma by EUS-guided FNA. The patient underwent a Whipple procedure. The final pathology confirmed a 1 cm pT1 N0 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Case: A 63-year-old male presented with left upper quadrant pain and an abdominal CT demonstrated an 8 mm lesion within the head of the pancreas that was thought to represent a side branch IPMN. An MRI also showed similar findings. Four months later due to ongoing symptoms an EUS was performed to re-evaluate the pancreatic lesion. EUS revealed a predominantly solid hypoechoic, homogeneous mass measuring 12 mm x 9 mm. EUS-guided FNA was performed and was positive for adenocarcinoma. The patient underwent a Whipple procedure that confirmed it to be a ductal adenocarcinoma, pT1N0. The solid mass was noted to be adjacent to a cystic dilation with no papillary architecture and scant epithelium. The differential diagnosis resided between cystic degeneration of a primary pancreatic adenocarcinoma versus malignant degeneration within a side-branch IPMN. Discussion: The reported sensitivity of CT for pancreatic cancer is approximately 90%. For pancreatic tumors, less than 3 cm the sensitivity of CT is reduced ranging from 67-77%. MRI does not significantly improve overall detection rates compared to CT. EUS, however is superior to CT in the detection of pancreatic cancer, in particular among lesions smaller than 3 cm. EUS also outperforms CT and MRI in distinguishing neoplastic from non-neoplastic cysts. In this case, both MRI and CT failed to detect a small pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The addition of EUS and FNA to abdominal imaging can increase overall accuracy for the diagnosis of neoplastic pancreatic lesions. It may be prudent that when small lesions although appearing as a benign IPMN should further be evaluated by EUS as this would lead to potentially identifying earlier stage pancreatic cancers and improve survival in a disease which has a dismal prognosis.

Keywords: IPMN, MRI, EUS, CT

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Authors: Uswah Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Moazam Fraz, Humayoon Shafique Satti, Qasim Aziz

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Approximately 10-14% of the global population experiences a functional disorder known as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The disorder is defined by persistent abdominal pain and an irregular bowel pattern. IBS significantly impairs work productivity and disrupts patients' daily lives and activities. Although IBS is widespread, there is still an incomplete understanding of its underlying pathophysiology. This study aims to help characterize the phenotype of IBS patients by differentiating the comorbidities found in IBS patients from those in non-IBS patients using machine learning algorithms. In this study, we extracted samples coding for IBS from the UK BioBank cohort and randomly selected patients without a code for IBS to create a total sample size of 18,000. We selected the codes for comorbidities of these cases from 2 years before and after their IBS diagnosis and compared them to the comorbidities in the non-IBS cohort. Machine learning models, including Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine (SVM), AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, and XGBoost, were employed to assess their accuracy in predicting IBS. The most accurate model was then chosen to identify the features associated with IBS. In our case, we used XGBoost feature importance as a feature selection method. We applied different models to the top 10% of features, which numbered 50. Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression and XGBoost algorithms yielded a diagnosis of IBS with an optimal accuracy of 71.08%, 71.427%, and 71.53%, respectively. Among the comorbidities most closely associated with IBS included gut diseases (Haemorrhoids, diverticular diseases), atopic conditions(asthma), and psychiatric comorbidities (depressive episodes or disorder, anxiety). This finding emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach when evaluating the phenotype of IBS, suggesting the possibility of identifying new subsets of IBS rather than relying solely on the conventional classification based on stool type. Additionally, our study demonstrates the potential of machine learning algorithms in predicting the development of IBS based on comorbidities, which may enhance diagnosis and facilitate better management of modifiable risk factors for IBS. Further research is necessary to confirm our findings and establish cause and effect. Alternative feature selection methods and even larger and more diverse datasets may lead to more accurate classification models. Despite these limitations, our findings highlight the effectiveness of Logistic Regression and XGBoost in predicting IBS diagnosis.

Keywords: comorbidities, disease association, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), predictive analytics

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Authors: Syed Ibrahim, Syed Muneer Ahmed

Abstract:

It is a global phenomenon that fitness is a pre-requisite to the desired end of optimum efficiency in elite class basketballers achieved through appropriate conditioning program. This study was undertaken to find out the effect of gymnastic oriented training program on the physical fitness and the level of technical performance of basketball players. Method: 27 basketballers were divided into 12 experimental and 15 control groups aged between 19 to 25 years. Physical fitness tests comprising of vertical jump, push-ups, chin ups, sit ups, back strength, 30 m sprint, boomerangs test, 600 m run, sit and reach, bridge up and shoulder rotation and technical skill tests like dribbling, layup shots and rebound collection were used for the study. A pre- and post-test was conducted before and after the training program of 6 weeks. Results: The results indicated no significant difference in the anthropometric measurements of age, height and weight between the experimental and control group as the ‘t’ values observed were 0.28, 1.63 and 1.60 respectively . There were significant improvements in vertical jump, push-ups, sit-ups, modified boomerang test, bridge test and shoulder rotation index with the ‘t’ values being 2.60, 3.41, 3.91, 4.02, 3.55 and 2.33 respectively. However, no significant differences existed in chin-ups, back strength, 30 m sprint and 6000 m run with the ‘t’ values being 2.08, 1.77, 1.28 and 0.80 respectively. There was significant improvement in the post-test for the technical skills tests in the experimental group with ‘t’ values being 3.65, 2.57, and 3.62 for the dribble, layup shots and rebound collection respectively. There was no significant difference in the values of the control group except in the rebound collection which showed significant difference. Conclusion: It was found that both the physical fitness and skill proficiency of the basketballers increased through the participation in the gymnastics oriented program.

Keywords: gymnastic, technical, pre-requisite, elite class

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Authors: Ma. Eliza Jijeth V. dela Cruz

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Technology is a recent prodigy in people’s everyday life that has taken off. It infiltrated almost every aspect of one’s lives, changing how people work, how people learn and how people perceive things. Academic Institutions, just like other organizations, have deeply modified its strategies to integrate technology into the institutional vision and corporate strategy that has never been greater. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) continues to be recognized as a major factor in organizations realizing its aims and objectives. Consequently, ICT has an important role in the mobilization of an academic institution’s strategy to support the delivery of operational, strategic or transformational objectives. This ICT strategy should align the institution with the radical changes of the ICT world through the use of Enterprise Architecture (EA). Hence, EA’s objective is to optimize the islands of legacy processes to be integrated that is receptive to change and supportive of the delivery of the strategy. In this paper, the focus is to explore the motivational antecedents during the adoption of EA in a Higher Education Institution in the Philippines for its ICT strategic plan. The seven antecedents (viewpoint, stakeholders, human traits, vision, revolutionary innovation, techniques and change components) provide understanding into EA adoption and the antecedents that influences the process of EA adoption.

Keywords: Enterprise Architecture, Adoption, Antecedents, Higher Educational Institutions

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Authors: Muthana A. M. Jamel Al-Gburi

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Elimination of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas from the atmosphere is very important but complicated since there is increasing in the amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which mainly caused by some of the human activities and the burning of fossil fuels. So that will lead to global warming. The global warming affects the earth temperature causing an increase to a higher level and, at the same time, creates tornadoes and storms. In this project, we are going to do a new technique for extracting carbon dioxide directly from the air and change it to useful minerals and Nano scale fibers made of carbon by using several chemical processes through chemical reactions. So, that could lead to an economical and healthy way to make some valuable building materials. Also, it may even work as a weapon against environmental change. In our device (Carbone Dioxide Domestic Extractor), we are using Ocean-seawater to dissolve the CO₂ gas and then converted it into carbonate minerals by using a number of additives like Shampoo, clay, and MgO. Note that the atmospheric air includes CO₂ gas, has circulated within the seawater by the air pump. More, that we will use a number of chemicals agents to convert the water acid into useful minerals. After we constructed the system, we did intense experiments and investigations to find the optimum chemical agent, which must be work at the environmental condition. Further to that, we will measure the solubility of CO₂ and other salts in the seawater.

Keywords: global warming, CO₂ gas, ocean-sea water, additives, solubility level

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Authors: Fatimah A. Alhomaid

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The present study was planned to investigate the role of molecular changes and immunohistochemical in early detection of liver cancer in Saudi patients. our results were carried out on 54 patients liver cancer. We obtained our data from laboratory in King Khalid University Hospital. The specimens were taken (54) patients with liver cancer 34 male and 14 female and 2 control. The average age of varied from 37-85 years. The tumor was diagnosed as grade I in tow patients (male and female) and grade 2 in 45 patients (28 male and 17 female) while the grade 3 in 4 patients (all males). The specimens were processed for haematoxylin and eosin staining, immunohistochemical technique and flow cytometry analysis. Our study noted that most patients had adenocarcinoma which characterized by presence of signet-ring cells were very clear in advanced patients with adenocarcinoma. Our sections in adenocarcinoma in grade 2 and stage 3 had an increase in signet ring cells,an increase in the acini of glands and an increase in number of lymphocytes which spread to the muscular layer. With advancing the disease, there were haemorrhage in blood and increase in lymphocytes and increase in the number of nuclei in the tubular glands. Our study was carried on 48 patients, immunohistochemical diagnosis (CK20, PCNA, P53) and the analysis of DNA content by flow cytometry technique. Our study indicated that the presence of correlation between the immunohistochemical analysis for P53 and the grades. The reaction of P53 appeared as strong in nucleus in grades &stage 3 and appeared in other sections as dark brown pigment. Our study indicated that the absence of correlation between the immunohistochemical analysis for PCAN and the grades. In our sections there were strong reaction in the more 80% of nuclei in grade 1& stage 2. Our study indicated that the presence of correlation between the immunohistochemical analysis for CK20 and the grades. Our results indicated the presence of positive reaction in cytoplasm varied from weak to moderate in grade 3 & stage 4. Concerning the Flow cytometry technique our results indicated that the presence of correlation between the DNA and different stages of liver cancer.

Keywords: cancer, CK20, DNA, cytometry analysis, liver, immunohistochemical, molecular changes, PCNA, p53

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Authors: S. I. Mwasha, Z. Robinson, M. Musgrave

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Communities, especially in the global south, have been reported to have low adaptive capacity to cope with climate change impacts. As an attempt to improve adaptive capacity, most studies have focused on understanding the access of the household resources which can contribute to resilience against changes. However, little attention has been shown in uncovering how the household resources could be used and their implications to resilience against weather related shocks. By using a case study qualitative study, this project analyzed the trends in livelihoods practices and their implication to social equity. The study was done in three different villages within Kilimanjaro region. Each in different agro ecological zone. Two focus group discussions in two agro-ecological zones were done, one for women and another one for men except in the third zone where focus group participant were combined together (due to unforeseen circumstances). In the focus group discussion, several participatory rural appraisal tools were used to understand trend in crops and animal production and the use in which it is made: climate trends, soil fertility, trees and other livelihoods resources. Data were analyzed using thematic network analysis. Using an amalgam of magnitude (to note weather comments made were positive or negative) and descriptive coding (to note the topic), six basic themes were identified under social equity: individual ownership, family ownership, love and respect, women no education, women access to education as well as women access to loans. The results implied that despite mum and dad in the family providing labor in the agro pastoral activities, there were separations on who own what, as well as individual obligations in the family. Dad owned mostly income creating crops and mum, food crops. therefore, men controlled the economy which made some of them become arrogant and spend money to meet their interests sometimes not taking care of the family. Separation in ownership was reported to contribute to conflicts in the household as well as causing controversy on the use income is spent. Men were reported to use income to promote matriarchy system. However, as women were capacitated through access to education and loans they become closer to their husband and get access to own and plan the income together for the interest of the family. Joint ownership and planning on the household resources were reported to be important if families have to better adapt to climate change. The aim of this study is not to show women empowerment and joint ownership and planning as only remedy for low adaptive capacity. There is the need to understand other practices that either directly or indirectly impacts environmental integrity, food security and economic development for household resilience against changing climate.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, climate change, resilience, women empowerment

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Authors: Khadijeh Abhari, Seyed Shahram Shekarforoush, Saeid Hosseinzadeh

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Probiotics have been considered as an approach to treat and prevent a wide range of inflammatory diseases. The spore forming probiotic strain Bacillus coagulans has demonstrated anti-inflammatory and immune-modulating effects in both animals and humans. The prebiotic, inulin, also potentially affects the immune system as a result of the change in the composition or fermentation profile of the gastrointestinal microbiota. An in vivo trial was conducted to evaluate the effects of probiotic B. coagulans, and inulin, either separately or in combination, on down regulate immune responses and progression of rheumatoid arthritis using induced arthritis rat model. Forty-eight male Wistar rats were randomly divided into 6 groups and fed as follow: 1) control: Normal healthy rats fed by standard diet, 2) Disease control (RA): Arthritic induced (RA) rats fed by standard diet, 3) Prebiotic (PRE): RA+ 5% w/w long chain inulin, 4) Probiotic (PRO): RA+ 109 spores/day B. coagulans by orogastric gavage, 5) Synbiotic (SYN): RA+ 5% w/w long chain inulin and 109 spores/day B. coagulans and 6) Treatment control: (INDO): RA+ 3 mg/kg/day indomethacin by orogastric gavage. Feeding with mentioned diets started on day 0 and continued to the end of study. On day 14, rats were injected with complete Freund’s adjuvant (CFA) to induce arthritis. Arthritis activity was evaluated by biochemical parameters and paw thickness. Biochemical assay for Fibrinogen (Fn), Serum Amyloid A (SAA), TNF-α and Alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (α1AGp) was performed on day 21, 28 and 35 (1, 2 and 3 weeks post RA induction). Pretreatment with PRE, PRO and SYN diets significantly inhibit SAA and Fn production in arthritic rats (P < 0.001). A significant decrease in production of pro-inflammatory cytokines, TNF-α, was seen in PRE, PRO and SYN groups (P < 0.001) which was similar to the effect of the anti-inflammatory drug Indomethacin. Further, there were no significant anti-inflammatory effects observed following different treatments using α1AGp as a RA indicator. Pretreatment with all supplied diets significantly inhibited the development of paw swelling induced by CFA (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Results of this study support that oral intake of probiotic B. coagulans and inulin are able to improve biochemical and clinical parameters of induced RA in rat.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, bacillus coagulans, inulin, animal model

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Authors: Reem Saad Alqahtani

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Drawing on minority literature, this research highlights the role of three contemporary Arab American writers, considering the significance of the historical and cultural contexts of the brutal attacks of 9/11. The focus of the research is to draw attention to the poetry of Samuel Hazo, Nathalie Handal, and Naomi Shihab Nye as representatives of the identity crisis, whose experiences left them feeling marginalized and alienated in both societies, and reflected as one of the ethnic American minority groups, as demonstrated in their poetry, with a special focus on hybridity, resistance, identity, and empowerment. The study explores the writers’ post-9/11 experience, affected by the United States’ long history of marginalization and discrimination against people of colour, placing Arab American literature with that of other ethnic American groups who share the same experience and contribute to composing literature characterized by the aesthetics of cultural hybridity, cultural complexity, and the politics of minorities to promote solidarity and coalition building. Indeed, the three selected Arab American writers have found a link between their narration and the identity of the exiled by establishing an identity that is a kind of synthesis of diverse identities of Western reality and Eastern nostalgia. The approaches applied in this study will include historical/biographical, postcolonial, and discourse analysis. The first will be used to emphasize the influence of the biographical aspects related to the community, identity, and resistance of the three poets on their poetry. The second is used to investigate the effects of postcolonialism on the poets and their responses to it, while the third understand the sociocultural, political, and historical dimensions of the texts, establishing these poets as representative of the Arab American experience. This study is significant because it will help shed light on the importance of the Arabic hybrid identity in creating resistance to minority communities within American society.

Keywords: Arab American, identity, hybridity, post-9/11

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Authors: Laura C. Solzbacher, Caja Thimm

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Journalists worldwide have been confronted with a variety of ethical challenges over the last years. Because of massive changes in media technology and the public sphere, especially online journalism has trouble to uphold the fundamental values of journalism. In particular, the increasing amount of fake news and hate speech puts journalists under more and more pressure. In order to understand better how journalists judge this development and how they adapt in their daily work, a survey with journalists in Germany was carried out. 303 professional journalists participated in an online questionnaire. Results show that 65% underline that economic pressure grows and nearly the same number describe a change in the role of journalists in society. Furthermore, 61% agree that they put more time into research to secure their work against accusations of fabricating fake news. Interestingly, over 60% see a change in the role of journalists in society. The majority (85%) confirms that print journalism has to give way for online platforms and that the influence of social media for journalism grows (75%). Half of the surveyed advocate for more personalized public activism on part of journalists, such as appearance in talk shows and public talks. The results of the study will be discussed in light of the ongoing debate on ethical standards as a condition for a sustainable and trustworthy digital public sphere.

Keywords: ethics, fake news, journalism, public sphere

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Authors: Moen Torill, Rismark Marit, Astrid M. Solvberg

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In Norway, every municipality shall provide an educational psychological service, EPS, to support kindergartens and schools in their work with children and youths with special needs. The EPS focus its work on individuals, aiming to identify special needs and to give advice to teachers and parents when they ask for it. In addition, the service also give priority to prevention and system intervention in kindergartens and schools. To master these big tasks university courses are established to support EPS counsellors' continuous learning. There is, however, a need for more in-depth and systematic knowledge on how they experience the courses they attend. In this study, EPS counsellors’ reflection logs during a particular course are investigated. The research question is: what are the content and priorities of the reflections that are communicated in the logs produced by the educational psychological counsellors during a post-graduate course? The investigated course is a credit course organized over a one-year period in two one-semester modules. The altogether 55 students enrolled in the course work as EPS counsellors in various municipalities across Norway. At the end of each day throughout the course period, the participants wrote reflection logs about what they had experienced during the day. The data material consists of 165 pages of typed text. The collaborating researchers studied the data material to ascertain, differentiate and understand the meaning of the content in each log. The analysis also involved the search for similarity in content and development of analytical categories that described the focus and primary concerns in each of the written logs. This involved constant 'critical and sustained discussions' for mutual construction of meaning between the co-researchers in the developing categories. The process is inspired by Grounded Theory. This means that the concepts developed during the analysis derived from the data material and not chosen prior to the investigation. The analysis revealed that the concept 'Useful' frequently appeared in the participants’ reflections and, as such, 'Useful' serves as a core category. The core category is described through three major categories: (1) knowledge sharing (concerning direct and indirect work with students with special needs) with colleagues is useful, (2) reflections on models and theoretical concepts (concerning students with special needs) are useful, (3) reflection on the role as EPS counsellor is useful. In all the categories, the notion of useful occurs in the participants’ emphasis on and acknowledgement of the immediate and direct link between the university course content and their daily work practice. Even if each category has an importance and value of its own, it is crucial that they are understood in connection with one another and as interwoven. It is the connectedness that gives the core category an overarching explanatory power. The knowledge from this study may be a relevant contribution when it comes to designing new courses that support continuing professional development for EPS counsellors, whether for post-graduate university courses or local courses at the EPS offices or whether in Norway or other countries in the world.

Keywords: constructing and circulating knowledge, educational-psychological counsellor, higher education, professional development

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Authors: Ahsan Abdullah, Ahmed A. S. Bakshwain

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Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i) climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e. Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources, which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization (effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the three countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous live-stock population.

Keywords: prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity

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Authors: Xiping Wang，Shuran Yao, Liqin Dai

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Many studies report the winter is getting warmer and the minimum air temperature is obviously rising as the important climate warming evidences. The exacerbated air temperature fluctuation tending to bring more severe weather variation is another important consequence of recent climate change which induced more disasters to crop growth in quite a certain regions. Hebei Province is an important winter wheat growing province in North of China that recently endures more winter freezing injury influencing the local winter wheat crop management. A winter wheat freezing injury assessment Bayesian Network framework was established for the objectives of estimating, assessing and predicting winter wheat freezing disasters in Hebei Province. In this framework, the freezing disasters was classified as three severity degrees (SI) among all the three types of freezing, i.e., freezing caused by severe cold in anytime in the winter, long extremely cold duration in the winter and freeze-after-thaw in early season after winter. The factors influencing winter wheat freezing SI include time of freezing occurrence, growth status of seedlings, soil moisture, winter wheat variety, the longitude of target region and, the most variable climate factors. The climate factors included in this framework are daily mean and range of air temperature, extreme minimum temperature and number of days during a severe cold weather process, the number of days with the temperature lower than the critical temperature values, accumulated negative temperature in a potential freezing event. The Bayesian Network model was evaluated using actual weather data and crop records at selected sites in Hebei Province using real data. With the multi-stage influences from the various factors, the forecast and assessment of the event-based target variables, freezing injury occurrence and its damage to winter wheat production, were shown better scoped by Bayesian Network model.

Keywords: bayesian networks, climatic change, freezing Injury, winter wheat

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