Search results for: fall risk

Authors: Tya M. Arthur

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Purpose: BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and People of Color) adolescents face racism and discrimination at a young age. These early experiences have short- and long-term impacts on their health and overall well-being. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between perceived racial discrimination at school and health risk behaviors and experiences of BIPOC adolescents. Methods: Data from the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey (ABES) were analyzed. All demographic data were summarized using frequencies and chi-squared tests. A univariate and multivariate logistic regression model was used to test the relationship between perceived racial discrimination and selected health risk factors. All analyses were conducted using STATA SE 18. Results: A total of 42.2% of the BIPOC adolescents in the study indicated being treated unfairly at school due to their race. The majority of those who reported being discriminated against were Black/African American or Multiple Race-Hispanic. Asian adolescents were almost 5 times more likely to face racial discrimination at school compared to their American Indian/Alaska Native counterparts (OR = 4.86, 95% CI [2.69-8.77], p < 0.001). Other risk predictors of racial discrimination included being female (OR = 1.38, 95% CI [1.13-1.68], p = 0.002) and feeling disconnected at school (OR = 1.76, 95% CI [1.30-2.38], p < 0.001). After adjustment for health risk behaviors and experiences, BIPOC adolescents were still more likely to face racial discrimination with even higher odds. Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the depth of racial discrimination faced by BIPOC adolescents at school. Greater attention should be placed on racial discrimination as a social determinant of health and a public health crisis.

Keywords: racial discrimination, adolescents, heath risk factors, BIPOC

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Authors: Sana Gul, Sheeba Murad, Aneela Javed

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Introduction: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is small DNA virus mostly infecting mucosa and cutaneous keratinocytes. So far, more than 200 Human papillomaviruses are known. HPV have been divided into high- and low-risk on the basis of their oncogenic potential. High risk HPV is considered to be the main etiological cause for cervical cancer. Objective: Current study was designed to screen the local cervical cancer patients from the twin cities of Pakistan for the occurance of high risk HPV. Methodology: A total of 67 formalin fixed paraffin-embedded samples of cervical cancer biopsies were obtained from the government hospitals in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Cervical cancer biopsies were examined for the presence of HPV DNA. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for the amplification of a region in the HPV-L1 gene for the general detection of the Papilloma virus and for the genotype specific detection of high risk HPV 16 and 18 using the GP5/GP6 primers and genotype specific primers respectively. Results: HPV DNA was detected in 59 out of 67 samples analyzed. 30 samples showed the presence of HPV16 while 22 samples were positive for HPV 18 . HPV subtype could not be determined in 7 samples. Conclusion: Our results show a strong association between HPV infection and cervical cancer among women in twin cities of Pakistan. One way to minimize the disease burden in relation to HPV infection in Pakistani population is the use of prophylactic vaccines and routine screening. An early diagnosis of HPV infection will allow better health management to reduce the risk of developing cervical cancer.

Keywords: cervical cancer, Pakistan, human papillomavirus, HPV 16

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Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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Authors: Emma M. Iglesias

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We have analyzed extreme movements of the main stocks traded in the Eurozone in the 2000-2012 period. Our results can help future very-risk-averse investors to choose their portfolios in the Eurozone for risk management purposes. We find two main results. First, we can clearly classify firms by economic sector according to their different estimated VaR values in five of the seven countries we analyze. In special, we find sectors in general where companies have very high (telecommunications and banking) and very low (petroleum, utilities, energy and consumption) estimated VaR values. Second, we only find differences according to the geographical situation of where the stocks are traded in two countries: (1) all firms in the Irish stock market (the only financially rescued country we analyze) have very high estimated VaR values in all sectors; while (2) in Spain all firms have very low estimated VaR values including in the banking and the telecommunications sectors. All our results are supported when we study also the expected shortfall of the firms.

Keywords: risk management, firms, pareto tail thickness parameter, GARCH-type models, value-at-risk, extreme value theory, heavy tails, stock indexes, eurozone

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Authors: Benmoussa Rachid, Deguio Roland, Dubois Sebastien, Rasovska Ivana

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Implementation of LARG (Lean, Agile, Resilient, Green) practices in the supply chain management is a complex task mainly because ecological, economical and operational goals are usually in conflict. To implement these LARG practices successfully, companies’ need relevant decision making tools allowing processes performance control and improvement strategies visibility. To contribute to this issue, this work tries to answer the following research question: How to master performance and anticipate problems in supply chain LARG practices implementation? To answer this question, a risk management approach (RMA) is adopted. Indeed, the proposed RMA aims basically to assess the ability of a supply chain, guided by “Lean, Green and Achievement” performance goals, to face “agility and resilience risk” factors. To proof its relevance, a logistics academic case study based on simulation is used to illustrate all its stages. It shows particularly how to build the “LARG risk map” which is the main output of this approach.

Keywords: agile supply chain, lean supply chain, green supply chain, resilient supply chain, risk approach

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Authors: Suvorov Vasyl, Filipchuk Viktor

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Background: If non-surgical treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) fails or if DDH is late-detected, surgery is necessary. Salter pelvic osteotomy (SPO) is an effective surgical option for such cases. The objectives of this study were to assess the results after SPO, evaluate risk factors, and reveal those radiological parameters that may correlate with the results. Mid- and long-term postoperative results after SPO in 17 patients (22 hip joints) were analyzed. Risk factors included those that do not depend on the surgeon (patient's age, value of the acetabular index (AI) preoperatively, DDH Tonnis grade) and those that depend on the surgeon (amount of AI correction). To radiological parameters which may correlate with the amount of AI correction, we referred distance "d" and the lateral rotation angle. Results: SPO allows performing AI correction in ranges 24.1 ± 6.5°. Excellent and good clinical results were obtained in 95.5% of patients; excellent and good radiological results in 86.4% of patients. Risk factors that do not depend on the surgeon were older patient’s age and higher preoperative AI values (p < 0.05). The risk factor that depends on the surgeon was the amount of AI correction (p < 0.05). The distance "d" was recognized as a radiological parameter that may indicate sufficient AI correction (p < 0.05). Conclusion: In older patients with a higher preoperative AI value, the results will be predictably worse. The surgeon may influence the result with a greater amount of AI correction (which may also be indicated radiologically by the distance "d" values).

Keywords: developmental dysplasia of the hip, results, risk factor, pelvic osteotomy, salter osteotomy

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Authors: Mehrnaz Farzingohar, Mehran Yasemi, Ahmad Savari

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The oil products are imported and exported via Rajaee’s tanker terminal. Within loading and discharging in several cases the oil is released into the berths and made oil spills. The spills are distributed within short time and seriously affected Rajaee port’s environment and even extended areas. The trajectory and fate of oil spills investigated by modeling and parted by three risk levels base on the modeling results. First GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) applied to trajectory the liquid oil. Second, ALOHA (Areal Location Of Hazardous Atmosphere) air quality model, is integrated to predict the oil evaporation path within the air. Base on the identified zones the high risk areas are signed by colored dots which their densities calculated and clarified on a map which displayed the harm places. Wind and water circulation moved the pollution to the East of Rajaee Port that accumulated about 12 km of coastline. Approximately 20 km of north east of Qeshm Island shore is covered by the three levels of risky areas. Since the main wind direction is SSW the pollution pushed to the east and the highest risk zones formed on the crests edges hence the low risk appeared on the concavities. This assessment help the management and emergency systems to monitor the exposure places base on the priority factors and find the best approaches to protect the environment.

Keywords: oil spill, modeling, pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

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Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

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Authors: Hachmi Ben Ameur, Jean Luc Prigent

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We propose an extension of the CPPI method, which is based on conditional floors. In this framework, we examine in particular the TIPP and margin based strategies. These methods allow keeping part of the past gains and protecting the portfolio value against future high drawdowns of the financial market. However, as for the standard CPPI method, the investor can benefit from potential market rises. To control the risk of such strategies, we introduce both Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures. For each of these criteria, we show that the conditional floor must be higher than a lower bound. We illustrate these results, for a quite general ARCH type model, including the EGARCH (1,1) as a special case.

Keywords: CPPI, conditional floor, ARCH, VaR, expected ehortfall

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Authors: Ya-Ching Wang, Yi-Maun Subeq

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Background: There is a lack of evidence to understand differences in risk for developing breast cancer between sexual minority women and heterosexual women in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to compare differences in risk for developing breast cancer between the two groups of Taiwanese women. Methods: An online cross-sectional survey was used to collect data. A total of 238 Taiwanese women (mean age 30.69 years old, SD=8.231, range 20-60) were recruited between December 2016 and February 2017, including 115 heterosexual women and 123 sexual minority women. Results: There were no significant differences between heterosexual women and sexual minority women in body mass index, history of non-malignant breast disease, age at menarche and menopause, use of hormone replacement therapy, use of hormone replacement therapy, nor the prevalence of breast cancer. The sexual minority women had higher rates of current drinking, smoking and using breast-bindings and also reported exercise more a week; the heterosexual women had higher rates of pregnancy, children, breastfeed, miscarriages, abortion and use of birth control pills. Discussion/Conclusion: There were significant differences between heterosexual women and sexual minority women in reproductive factors and behavioral risk factors for the development of breast cancer. In particular, the finding that the sexual minority women had higher rate of using breast-bindings (56.6%) than the heterosexual women (4.7%) should be further explore, in order to understand whether long-term breast compression is associated with the development of breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, risk, sexual orientation, Taiwan

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Authors: M. Mokhber, J. Hedayati

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From the managerial perspective, it is important to devise an operational plan based on top priorities due to limited resources, diversity of measures and high costs needed to improve safety in infrastructure. Dealing with the high-risk corridors across Iran, this study prioritized the corridors according to statistical data on accidents involving fatalities, injury or damage over three consecutive years. In collaboration with the Iranian Police Department, data were collected and modified. Then, the prioritization criteria were specified based on the expertise opinions and international standards. In this study, the prioritization criteria included accident severity and accident density. Finally, the criteria were standardized and weighted (equal weights) to score each high-risk corridor. The prioritization phase involved the scoring and weighting procedure. The high-risk corridors were divided into twelve groups out of 50. The results of data analysis for a three-year span suggested that the first three groups (150 corridors) along with a quarter of Iranian road network length account for nearly 60% of traffic accidents. In the next step, according to variables including weather conditions particular roads for the purpose of winter safety measures were extracted from the abovementioned categories. According to the results ranking, ‎‏9‏‎ roads with the overall ‎length of about ‎‎‏1000‏‎ Km of high-risk corridors are considered as preferences of ‎safety measures‎.

Keywords: high-risk corridors, HRCs, road safety rating, road scoring, winter safety measures

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Authors: Muhammad Sheraz, Vasile Preda, Silvia Dedu

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Concepts of econophysics are usually used to solve problems related to uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics. In the theory of option pricing the risk neutral probabilities play very important role. The application of entropy in finance can be regarded as the extension of both information entropy and the probability entropy. It can be an important tool in various financial methods such as measure of risk, portfolio selection, option pricing and asset pricing. Gulko applied Entropy Pricing Theory (EPT) for pricing stock options and introduced an alternative framework of Black-Scholes model for pricing European stock option. In this article, we present solutions to maximum entropy problems based on Tsallis, Weighted-Tsallis, Kaniadakis, Weighted-Kaniadakies entropies, to obtain risk-neutral densities. We have also obtained the value of European call and put in this framework.

Keywords: option pricing, Black-Scholes model, Tsallis entropy, Kaniadakis entropy, weighted entropy, risk-neutral density

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Authors: Dana Cassandra Winkler, Delia Leiding, Rene Bergs, Franziska Kaiser, Ramona Kirchhart, Ute Habel

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Background: Violence is a multidimensional phenomenon, affecting people of every age, socio-economic status and gender. Nevertheless, most studies primarily focus on men perpetrating women. Aim of the present study is to identify the likelihood of mental and somatic disorders and risk-taking behavior in male violence affected. In addition, the relationship between age of violence experience and the risk for health-related problems was analyzed. Method: On the basis of current evidence, a questionnaire was developed focusing on demographic background, health status, risk-taking behavior, and active and passive violence exposure. In total, 5221 males (Mean: 56,1 years, SD: 17,6) were consulted. To account for the time of violence experience in an efficient way, age clusters ‘0-12 years’, ‘13-20 years’, ‘21-35 years’, ‘36-65 years’ and ‘over 65 years’ were defined. A binary logistic regression was calculated to reveal differences in violence-affected and non-violence affected males regarding health and risk-taking factors. Males who experienced violence on a daily/ almost daily basis vs. males who reported violence occurrence once/ several times a month/ year were compared with respect to health factors and risk-taking behavior. Data of males, who indicated active and passive violence exposure, were analyzed by a chi²-analysis, to investigate a possible relation between the age of victimization and violence perpetration. Findings: Results imply that general violence experience, independent of active and passive violence exposure increases the likelihood in favor of somatic-, psychosomatic- and mental disorders as well as risk-taking behavior in males. Experiencing violence on a daily or almost daily basis in childhood and adolescence may serve as a predictor for increased health problems and risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, the violence experience and perpetration occur significantly within the same age cluster. This underlines the importance of a near-term intervention to minimize the risk, that victims become perpetrators later. Conclusion: The present study reveals predictors concerning health risk factors as well as risk-taking behavior in males with violence exposure. The results of this study may underscore the benefit of intervention and regular health care approaches in violence-affected males and underline the importance of acknowledging the overlap of violence experience and perpetration for further research.

Keywords: health disease, male, mental health, prevalence, risk-taking behavior, violence

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: scaffolding, health and safety at work, temperature, wind velocity

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Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

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Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

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Authors: Nayab Kanwal, Noor Us Saher

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The management and utilization of food resources is becoming a big issue due to rapid urbanization, wastage and non-sustainable use of food, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the use of seafood as alternative sources is strongly promoted worldwide. Marine pollution strongly affects marine organisms, which ultimately decreases their export quality. The monitoring of contamination in marine organisms is a good indicator of the environmental quality as well as seafood quality. Monitoring the accumulation of chemical elements within various tissues of organisms has become a useful tool to survey current or chronic levels of heavy metal exposure within an environment. In this perspective, this study was carried out to compare the previous and current levels (Year 2012 and 2014) of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn) in crabs marketed in Karachi and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. The accumulation of metals in marine organisms, both essential (Cu and Zn) and toxic (Pb, Cd and Cr), natural and anthropogenic, is an actual food safety issue. Significant (p>0.05) variations in metal concentrations were found in all crab species between the two years, with most of the metals showing high accumulation in 2012. For toxicological risk assessment, EWI (Estimated weekly intake), Target Hazard quotient (THQ) and cancer risk (CR) were also assessed and high EWI, Non- cancer risk (THQ < 1) showed that there is no serious threat associated with the consumption of shellfish species on Karachi coast. The Cancer risk showed the highest risk from Cd and Pb pollution if consumed in excess. We summarize key environmental health research on health effects associated with exposure to contaminated seafood. It could be concluded that considering the Pakistan coast, these edible species may be sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of environmental contaminants; more attention should be paid to the Pb and Cd metal bioaccumulation and to toxicological risks to seafood and consumers.

Keywords: cancer risk, edible crabs, heavy metals pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Mary Anthony Oguike, Ilouno, Amaduruonye

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A completely randomized design experiment with 3 treatments was conducted to study the effects of garlic on intestine characteristics, haematology and serum biochemistry of Marshal broilers. Thirty three (33) broiler chicks were randomly allotted to each treatment designated T1, T2 and T3. The birds in each treatment were replicated 3 times with 11 broilers per replicate. They were fed diets supplemented with garlic at 0, 1.5 and 2.5 % /kg feed for t1, T2 and T3, respectively with T1 as control. Data were collected on intestine parameters, serum biochemical parameters and haematological indices. The results showed significant (P>0.05) dose-dependent decrease in intestine weight and caeca microbial load of the broilers. The intestine of broilers in the treatments showed normal histological architecture in all the treatments. The red blood cell (RBC), white blood cell (WBC), haemoglobin (Hb) and other haematological indices showed no significant differences (P<0.05) among the treatments. Cholesterol, globulin, glucose and alanin aminotransferase (ALT) were significantly different (P<0.05) among the treatment groups. Serum biochemical parameters such as, total protein albumin, bilirubin and others were not significant among the treatments. All the blood parameters studied fall within the normal range for broilers. Garlic supplementation in the diets of broilers did not have any detrimental effects on the treated birds since their serum biochemistry and haematology fall within the normal range for broilers birds. The microbial examination of intestine and caeca, as well as the histopathological studies of the intestine confirmed antimicrobial properties of garlic.

Keywords: broiler, biochemistry and haematology, garlic, intestine

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Authors: Alba Ballester Ciuró, Marc Pares Franzi

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While coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe and greater socio-economic damages, traditional flood risk management has become inefficient. In response to that, new approaches such as capacity building and public participation have recently been incorporated in natural hazards mitigation policy (i.e. Sendai Framework for Action, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and EU Floods Directive). By integrating capacity building and public participation, we present a research concerning the promotion of participatory social capacity building actions for flood risk mitigation at the local level. Social capacities have been defined as the resources and abilities available at individual and collective level that can be used to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to external stressors. Social capacity building is understood as a process of identifying communities’ social capacities and of applying collaborative strategies to improve them. This paper presents a proposal of systematization of participatory social capacity building process for flood risk mitigation, and its implementation in a high risk of flooding area in the Ebro river basin: Ribera Alta del Ebro. To develop this process, we designed and tested a tool that allows measuring and building five types of social capacities: knowledge, motivation, networks, participation and finance. The tool implementation has allowed us to assess social capacities in the area. Upon the results of the assessment we have developed a co-decision process with stakeholders and flood risk management authorities on which participatory activities could be employed to improve social capacities for flood risk mitigation. Based on the results of this process, and focused on the weaker social capacities, we developed a set of participatory actions in the area oriented to general public and stakeholders: informative sessions on flood risk management plan and flood insurances, interpretative river descents on flood risk management (with journalists, teachers, and general public), interpretative visit to the floodplain, workshop on agricultural insurance, deliberative workshop on project funding, deliberative workshops in schools on flood risk management (playing with a flood risk model). The combination of obtaining data through a mixed-methods approach of qualitative inquiry and quantitative surveys, as well as action research through co-decision processes and pilot participatory activities, show us the significant impact of public participation on social capacity building for flood risk mitigation and contributes to the understanding of which main factors intervene in this process.

Keywords: flood risk management, public participation, risk reduction, social capacities, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: behavior-based advising, financial relationship building, risk capacity based on behavior, risk tolerance, systematic way to assist in financial relationship building

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Authors: Nada Al-Qallaf, Aisha Al-Barood, Djamel Lekmine, Srinivasan Vedhapuri

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) under the supervision of Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) is planning to remediate 26 million (M) m3 of oil-contaminated soil in oil fields of Kuwait as a direct and indirect fallout of the Gulf War during 1990-1991. This project is funded by the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) under the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). Oil-contamination of the soil occurred due to the destruction of the oil wells and spilled crude oil across the land surface and created ‘oil lakes’ in low lying land. Aerial fall-out from oil spray and combustion products from oil fires combined with the sand and gravel on the ground surface to form a layer of hardened ‘Tarcrete’. The unique fresh groundwater lenses present in the Raudhatain and Sabriya subsurface areas had been impacted by the discharge and/or spills of dissolved petroleum constituents. These fresh groundwater aquifers were used for drinking water purposes until 1990, prior to invasion. This has significantly damages altered the landscape, ecology and habitat of the flora and fauna and in Kuwait Desert. Under KERP, KOC is fully responsible for the planning and execution of the remediation and restoration projects in KOC oil fields. After the initial recommendation of UNCC to construct engineered landfills for containment and disposal of heavily contaminated soils, two landfills were constructed, one in North Kuwait and another in South East Kuwait of capacity 1.7 million m3 and 0.5 million m3 respectively. KOC further developed the Total Remediation Strategy in conjunction with KNFP and has obtained UNCC approval. The TRS comprises of elements such as Risk Based Approach (RBA), Bioremediation of low Contaminated Soil levels, Remediation Treatment Technologies, Sludge Disposal via Beneficial Recycling or Re-use and Engineered landfills for Containment of untreatable materials. Risk Based Assessment as a key component to avoid any unnecessary remedial works, where it can be demonstrated that human health and the environment are sufficiently protected in the absence of active remediation. This study demonstrates on the risks of tarcrete materials spread over areas 20 Km2 on the fresh Ground water lenses/catchment located beneath the Sabriyah and Raudhatain oil fields in North Kuwait. KOC’s primary objective is to provide justification of using RBA, to support a case with the Kuwait regulators to leave the tarcrete material in place, rather than seek to undertake large-scale removal and remediation. The large-scale coverage of the tarcrete in the oil fields and perception that the residual contamination associated with this source is present in an environmentally sensitive area essentially in ground water resource. As part of this assessment, conceptual site model (CSM) and complete risk-based and fate and transport modelling was carried out which includes derivation of site-specific assessment criteria (SSAC) and quantification of risk to identified waters resource receptors posed by tarcrete impacted areas. The outcome of this assessment was determined that the residual tarcrete deposits across the site area shall not create risks to fresh groundwater resources and the remedial action to remove and remediate the surficial tarcrete deposits is not warranted.

Keywords: conceptual site model, fresh groundwater, oil-contaminated soil, tarcrete, risk based assessment

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Authors: M. A. Stoian, D. M. Cocarta, A. Badea

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The main sources of soil pollution due to petroleum contaminants are industrial processes involve crude oil. Soil polluted with crude oil is toxic for plants, animals, and humans. Human exposure to the contaminated soil occurs through different exposure pathways: Soil ingestion, diet, inhalation, and dermal contact. The present study research is focused on soil contamination with heavy metals as a consequence of soil pollution with petroleum products. Human exposure pathways considered are: Accidentally ingestion of contaminated soil and dermal contact. The purpose of the paper is to identify the human health risk (carcinogenic risk) from soil contaminated with heavy metals. The human exposure and risk were evaluated for five contaminants of concern of the eleven which were identified in soil. Two soil samples were collected from a bioremediation platform from Muntenia Region of Romania. The soil deposited on the bioremediation platform was contaminated through extraction and oil processing. For the research work, two average soil samples from two different plots were analyzed: The first one was slightly contaminated with petroleum products (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in soil was 1420 mg/kg_d.w.), while the second one was highly contaminated (TPH in soil was 24306 mg/kg_d.w.). In order to evaluate risks posed by heavy metals due soil pollution with petroleum products, five metals known as carcinogenic were investigated: Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium^VI (Cr^VI), Nickel (Ni), and Lead (Pb). Results of the chemical analysis performed on samples collected from the contaminated soil evidence soil contamination with heavy metals as following: As in Site 1 = 6.96 mg/kg_d.w; As in Site 2 = 11.62 mg/kg_d.w, Cd in Site 1 = 0.9 mg/kg_d.w; Cd in Site 2 = 1 mg/kg_d.w; Cr^VI was 0.1 mg/kg_d.w for both sites; Ni in Site 1 = 37.00 mg/kg_d.w; Ni in Site 2 = 42.46 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 1 = 34.67 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 2 = 120.44 mg/kg_d.w. The concentrations for these metals exceed the normal values established in the Romanian regulation, but are smaller than the alert level for a less sensitive use of soil (industrial). Although, the concentrations do not exceed the thresholds, the next step was to assess the human health risk posed by soil contamination with these heavy metals. Results for risk were compared with the acceptable one (10^-6, according to World Human Organization). As, expected, the highest risk was identified for the soil with a higher degree of contamination: Individual Risk (IR) was 1.11×10^-5 compared with 8.61×10^-6. 

Keywords: carcinogenic risk, heavy metals, human health risk assessment, soil pollution

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Authors: Sharon Garyn-Tal, Shoshana Shahrabani

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Military service in general, and in combat units in particular, can be physically and psychologically stressful. Therefore, type of service may have significant implications for soldiers during and after their military service including emotions, judgments and risk perceptions. Previous studies have focused on risk propensity and risky behavior among soldiers, however there is still lack of knowledge on the impact of type of army service on risk perceptions. The current study examines the effect of type of army service (combat versus non-combat service) and negative incidental emotions on risk perceptions. In 2014 a survey was conducted among 153 combat and non-combat Israeli soldiers. The survey was distributed in train stations and central bus stations in various places in Israel among soldiers waiting for the train/bus. Participants answered questions related to the levels of incidental negative emotions they felt, to their risk perceptions (chances to be hurt by terror attack, by violent crime and by car accident), and personal details including type of army service. The data in this research is unique because military service in Israel is compulsory, so that the Israeli population serving in the army is wide and diversified. The results indicate that currently serving combat participants were more pessimistic in their risk perceptions (for all type of risks) compared to the currently serving non-combat participants. Since combat participants probably experienced severe and distressing situations during their service, they became more pessimistic regarding their probabilities of being hurt in different situations in life. This result supports the availability heuristic theory and the findings of previous studies indicating that those who directly experience distressing events tend to overestimate danger. The findings also indicate that soldiers who feel higher levels of incidental fear and anger have pessimistic risk perceptions. In addition, respondents who experienced combat army service also have pessimistic risk perceptions if they feel higher levels of fear. In addition, the findings suggest that higher levels of the incidental emotions of fear and anger are related to more pessimistic risk perceptions. These results can be explained by the compulsory army service in Israel that constitutes a focused threat to soldiers' safety during their period of service. Thus, in this stressful environment, negative incidental emotions even during routine times correlate with higher risk perceptions. In conclusion, the current study results suggest that combat army service shapes risk perceptions and the way young people control their negative incidental emotions in everyday life. Recognizing the factors affecting risk perceptions among soldiers is important for better understanding the impact of army service on young people.

Keywords: army service, combat soldiers, incidental emotions, risk perceptions

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Authors: Wai Sang Wu, Florence Pik Sze Mok

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Introduction: Ageing population is one of the hot topics nowadays in the world and this phenomenon is believed to exacerbate continuously in the future. According to the latest information from World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016, the proportion of people aged more than 60 years is projected to be doubled from 12% in 2015 to 22% in 2050 of the world's population. Similarly, according to figures released by the Census and Statistic Department of Hong Kong in 2015, the contribution of elderly aged more than 65 years olds is projected to increase from 15% in 2014 to 34% in 2064 in local community. On the other hand, falls in elderly is a common problem, and it can bring along many negative consequences among elders, such as reducing their mobility level as well as their quality of life. In addition, it can also increase the caring stress of their family caregivers and as well increase the reliance and burden on the medical care system of Hong Kong. Therefore, appropriate measures should be implemented in order to minimize the risk of fall among elders. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the chair-based exercise programme in affecting the balance of the elderly in Hong Kong. Methods: Thirteen healthy subjects (males = 2; females = 11; mean age: 76.2 ± 7.8 years old) were recruited from an elderly social centre in the community to participate in a structural chair-based exercise programme for 6 weeks (1 session per week; 60-minutes per session). Subjects were being assessed on their balance ability using three commonly used clinical assessments, namely, 1) single leg stance (SLS) test, 2) functional reach test, and 3) 360-degree turn test, before and after their participation in the chair-based exercise programme. Pre and post within-subject comparison was adopted to assess the effectiveness of the programme. Results: There was significant improvement (p < 0.05) in all balance parameters of the subjects after their participation in the exercise programme. Elderly demonstrated significant improvement in SLS (p < 0.012), functional reach (p < 0.030) and 360 degree turn (p < 0.043). Conclusions: This study showed that a community chair-based exercise programme is effective in improving the balance ability of the elders. It seems to be another exercise regime that should be promoted among the elders in order to minimize their risk of falls and its negative consequence.

Keywords: balance, chair-based exercise programme, community, elderly

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Authors: Shu-Hui Wen, Wei-Chuan Chang, Hsien-Chang Wu

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Background: Little is known about the benefits and risks of use of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in conditions related to hormone therapy (HT) use on the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study is to explore the risk of IS in menopausal women treated with HT and CHM. Materials and methods: A total of 32,441 menopausal women without surgical menopause aged 40- 65 years were selected from 2003 to 2010 using the 2-million random samples of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. According to the medication usage of HT and CHM, we divided the current and recent users into two groups: an HT use-only group (n = 4,989) and an HT/CHM group (n = 9,265). Propensity-score matching samples (4,079 pairs) were further created to deal with confounding by indication. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of IS during HT or CHM treatment were estimated by the robust Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The incidence rate of IS in the HT/CHM group was significantly lower than in the HT group (4.5 vs. 12.8 per 1000 person-year, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis results indicated that additional CHM use was significant with a lower risk of IS (HR = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.43). Further subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses had similar findings. Conclusion: We found that combined use of HT and CHM was associated with a lower risk for IS than HT use only. Further study is needed to examine possible mechanism underlying this association.

Keywords: Chinese herbal medicine, hormone therapy, ischemic stroke, menopause

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: S. J. Kim, Y. J. Yoo

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Slack-tide sampling was carried out at seven stations at high and low tides for a tidal cycle, in summer (7, 8, 9) and fall (10), 2016 to determine the differences of water quality according to tides in Masan Bay. The data were analyzed by Pearson correlation and factor analysis. The mixing state of all the water quality components investigated is well explained by the correlation with salinity (SAL). Turbidity (TURB), dissolved silica (DSi), nitrite and nitrate nitrogen (NNN) and total nitrogen (TN), which find their way into the bay from the streams and have no internal source and sink reaction, showed a strong negative correlation with SAL at low tide, indicating the property of conservative mixing. On the contrary, in summer and fall, dissolved oxygen (DO), hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and chemical oxygen demand with KMnO4 (CODMn) of the surface and bottom water, which were sensitive to an internal source and sink reaction, showed no significant correlation with SAL at high and low tides. The remaining water quality parameters showed a conservative or a non-conservative mixing pattern depending on the mixing characteristics at high and low tides, determined by the functional relationship between the changes of the flushing time and the changes of the characteristics of water quality components of the end-members in the bay. Factor analysis performed on the concentration difference data sets between high and low tides helped in identifying the principal latent variables for them. The concentration differences varied spatially and temporally. Principal factors (PFs) scores plots for each monitoring situation showed high associations of the variations to the monitoring sites. At sampling station 1 (ST1), temperature (TEMP), SAL, DSi, TURB, NNN and TN of the surface water in summer, TEMP, SAL, DSi, DO, TURB, NNN, TN, reactive soluble phosphorus (RSP) and total phosphorus (TP) of the bottom water in summer, TEMP, pH, SAL, DSi, DO, TURB, CODMn, particulate organic carbon (POC), ammonia nitrogen (AMN), NNN, TN and fecal coliform (FC) of the surface water in fall, TEMP, pH, SAL, DSi, H2S, TURB, CODMn, AMN, NNN and TN of the bottom water in fall commonly showed up as the most significant parameters and the large concentration differences between high and low tides. At other stations, the significant parameters showed differently according to the spatial and temporal variations of mixing pattern in the bay. In fact, there is no estuary that always maintains steady-state flow conditions. The mixing regime of an estuary might be changed at any time from linear to non-linear, due to the change of flushing time according to the combination of hydrogeometric properties, inflow of freshwater and tidal action, And furthermore the change of end-member conditions due to the internal sinks and sources makes the occurrence of concentration difference inevitable. Therefore, when investigating the water quality of the estuary, it is necessary to take a sampling method considering the tide to obtain average water quality data.

Keywords: conservative mixing, end-member, factor analysis, flushing time, high and low tide, latent variables, non-conservative mixing, slack-tide sampling, spatial and temporal variations, surface and bottom water

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