Search results for: thermal stability
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6241

Search results for: thermal stability

1201 The Effect of Incorporating Animal Assisted Interventions with Trauma Focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy

Authors: Kayla Renteria

Abstract:

This study explored the role animal-assisted psychotherapy (AAP) can play in treating Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) when incorporated into Trauma-informed cognitive behavioral therapy (TF-CBT). A review of the literature was performed to show how incorporating AAP could benefit TF-CBT since this treatment model often presents difficulties, such as client motivation and avoidance of the exposure element of the intervention. In addition, the fluidity of treatment goals during complex trauma cases was explored, as this issue arose in the case study. This study follows the course of treatment of a 12-year-old female presenting with symptoms of PTSD. Treatment consisted of traditional components of the TF-CBT model, with the added elements of AAP to address typical treatment obstacles in TF-CBT. A registered therapy dog worked with the subject in all sessions throughout her treatment. The therapy dog was incorporated into components such as relaxation and coping techniques, narrative therapy techniques, and psychoeducation on the cognitive triangle. Throughout the study, the client’s situation and clinical needs required the therapist to switch goals to focus on current safety and stability. The therapy dog provided support and neurophysiological benefits to the client through AAP during this shift in treatment. The client was assessed quantitatively using the Child PTSD Symptom Scale Self Report for DSM-5 (CPSS-SR-5) before and after therapy and qualitatively through a feedback form given after treatment. The participant showed improvement in CPSS-SR-V scores, and she reported that the incorporation of the therapy animal improved her therapy. The results of this study show how the use of AAP provided the client a solid, consistent relationship with the therapy dog that supported her through processing various types of traumas. Implications of the results of treatment and for future research are discussed.

Keywords: animal-assisted therapy, trauma-focused cognitive behavioral therapy, PTSD in children, trauma treatment

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1200 Wearable Monitoring and Treatment System for Parkinson’s Disease

Authors: Bulcha Belay Etana, Benny Malengier, Janarthanan Krishnamoorthy, Timothy Kwa, Lieva Vanlangenhove

Abstract:

Electromyography measures the electrical activity of muscles using surface electrodes or needle electrodes to monitor various disease conditions. Recent developments in the signal acquisition of electromyograms using textile electrodes facilitate wearable devices, enabling patients to monitor and control their health status outside of healthcare facilities. Here, we have developed and tested wearable textile electrodes to acquire electromyography signals from patients suffering from Parkinson’s disease and incorporated a feedback-control system to relieve muscle cramping through thermal stimulus. In brief, the textile electrodes made of stainless steel was knitted into a textile fabric as a sleeve, and their electrical characteristic, such as signal-to-noise ratio, was compared with traditional electrodes. To relieve muscle cramping, a heating element made of stainless-steel conductive yarn sewn onto a cotton fabric, coupled with a vibration system, was developed. The system integrated a microcontroller and a Myoware muscle sensor to activate the heating element as well as the vibration motor when cramping occurred. At the same time, the element gets deactivated when the muscle cramping subsides. An optimum therapeutic temperature of 35.5°C is regulated and maintained continuously by a heating device. The textile electrode exhibited a signal-to-noise ratio of 6.38dB, comparable to that of the traditional electrode’s value of 7.05 dB. For a given 9 V power supply, the rise time for the developed heating element was about 6 minutes to reach an optimum temperature.

Keywords: smart textile system, wearable electronic textile, electromyography, heating textile, vibration therapy, Parkinson’s disease

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1199 Finite Element Analysis of Resonance Frequency Shift of Laminated Composite Beam

Authors: Cheng Yang Kwa, Yoke Rung Wong

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Laminated composite materials are widely employed in automotive, aerospace, and other industries. These materials provide distinct benefits due to their high specific strength, high specific modulus, and ability to be customized for a specific function. However, delamination of laminated composite materials is one of the main defects which can occur during manufacturing, regular operations, or maintenance. Delamination can bring about considerable internal damage, unobservable by visual check, that causes significant loss in strength and stability, leading to composite structure catastrophic failure. Structural health monitoring (SHM) is known to be the automated method for monitoring and evaluating the condition of a monitored object. There are several ways to conduct SHM in aerospace. One of the effective methods is to monitor the natural frequency shift of structure due to the presence of defect. This study investigated the mechanical resonance frequency shift of a multi-layer composite cantilever beam due to interlaminar delamination. ANSYS Workbench® was used to create a 4-plies laminated composite cantilever finite element model with [90/0]s fiber setting. Epoxy Carbon UD (230GPA) Prepreg was chosen, and the thickness was 2.5mm for each ply. The natural frequencies of the finite element model with various degree of delamination were simulated based on modal analysis and then validated by using literature. It was shown that the model without delamination had natural frequency of 40.412 Hz, which was 1.55% different from the calculated result (41.050 Hz). Thereafter, the various degree of delamination was mimicked by changing the frictional conditions at the middle ply-to-ply interface. The results suggested that delamination in the laminated composite cantilever induced a change in its stiffness which alters its mechanical resonance frequency.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, NDT, cantilever, laminate

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1198 Lateral Torsional Buckling Resistance of Trapezoidally Corrugated Web Girders

Authors: Annamária Käferné Rácz, Bence Jáger, Balázs Kövesdi, László Dunai

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Due to the numerous advantages of steel corrugated web girders, its application field is growing for bridges as well as for buildings. The global stability behavior of such girders is significantly larger than those of conventional I-girders with flat web, thus the application of the structural steel material can be significantly reduced. Design codes and specifications do not provide clear and complete rules or recommendations for the determination of the lateral torsional buckling (LTB) resistance of corrugated web girders. Therefore, the authors made a thorough investigation regarding the LTB resistance of the corrugated web girders. Finite element (FE) simulations have been performed to develop new design formulas for the determination of the LTB resistance of trapezoidally corrugated web girders. FE model is developed considering geometrical and material nonlinear analysis using equivalent geometric imperfections (GMNI analysis). The equivalent geometric imperfections involve the initial geometric imperfections and residual stresses coming from rolling, welding and flame cutting. Imperfection sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the necessary magnitudes regarding only the first eigenmodes shape imperfections. By the help of the validated FE model, an extended parametric study is carried out to investigate the LTB resistance for different trapezoidal corrugation profiles. First, the critical moment of a specific girder was calculated by FE model. The critical moments from the FE calculations are compared to the previous analytical calculation proposals. Then, nonlinear analysis was carried out to determine the ultimate resistance. Due to the numerical investigations, new proposals are developed for the determination of the LTB resistance of trapezoidally corrugated web girders through a modification factor on the design method related to the conventional flat web girders.

Keywords: corrugated web, lateral torsional buckling, critical moment, FE modeling

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1197 Mechanical Tests and Analyzes of Behaviors of High-Performance of Polyester Resins Reinforced With Unifilo Fiberglass

Authors: Băilă Diana Irinel, Păcurar Răzvan, Păcurar Ancuța

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In the last years, composite materials are increasingly used in automotive, aeronautic, aerospace, construction applications. Composite materials have been used in aerospace in applications such as engine blades, brackets, interiors, nacelles, propellers/rotors, single aisle wings, wide body wings. The fields of use of composite materials have multiplied with the improvement of material properties, such as stability and adaptation to the environment, mechanical tests, wear resistance, moisture resistance, etc. The composite materials are classified concerning type of matrix materials, as metallic, polymeric and ceramic based composites and are grouped according to the reinforcement type as fibre, obtaining particulate and laminate composites. Production of a better material is made more likely by combining two or more materials with complementary properties. The best combination of strength and ductility may be accomplished in solids that consist of fibres embedded in a host material. Polyester is a suitable component for composite materials, as it adheres so readily to the particles, sheets, or fibres of the other components. The important properties of the reinforcing fibres are their high strength and high modulus of elasticity. For applications, as in automotive or in aeronautical domain, in which a high strength-to-weight ratio is important, non-metallic fibres such as fiberglass have a distinct advantage because of their low density. In general, the glass fibres content varied between 9 to 33% wt. in the composites. In this article, high-performance types of composite materials glass-epoxy and glass-polyester used in automotive domain will be analyzed, performing tensile and flexural tests and SEM analyzes.

Keywords: glass-polyester composite, glass fibre, traction and flexion tests, SEM analyzes

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1196 Corrosion Resistance of 17-4 Precipitation Hardenable Stainless Steel Fabricated by Selective Laser Melting

Authors: Michella Alnajjar, Frederic Christien, Krzysztof Wolski, Cedric Bosch

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Additive manufacturing (AM) has gained more interest in the past few years because it allows 3D parts often having a complex geometry to be directly fabricated, layer by layer according to a CAD model. One of the AM techniques is the selective laser melting (SLM) which is based on powder bed fusion. In this work, the corrosion resistance of 17-4 PH steel obtained by SLM is investigated. Wrought 17-4 PH steel is a martensitic precipitation hardenable stainless steel. It is widely used in a variety of applications such as aerospace, medical and food industries, due to its high strength and relatively good corrosion resistance. However, the combined findings of X-Ray diffraction and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) proved that SLM-ed 17-4 PH steel has a fully ferritic microstructure, more specifically δ ferrite. The microstructure consists of coarse ferritic grains elongated along the build direction, with a pronounced solidification crystallographic texture. These results were associated with the high cooling and heating rates experienced throughout the SLM process (10⁵-10⁶ K/s) that suppressed the austenite formation and produced a 'by-passing' phenomenon of this phase during the numerous thermal cycles. Furthermore, EDS measurements revealed a uniform distribution of elements without any dendritic structure. The extremely high cooling kinetics induced a diffusionless solidification, resulting in a homogeneous elemental composition. Consequently, the corrosion properties of this steel are altered from that of conventional ones. By using electrochemical means, it was found that SLM-ed 17-4 PH is more resistant to general corrosion than the wrought steel. However, the SLM-ed material exhibits metastable pitting due to its high porosity density. In addition, the hydrogen embrittlement of SLM-ed 17-4 PH steel is investigated, and a correlation between its behavior and the observed microstructure is made.

Keywords: corrosion resistance, 17-4 PH stainless steel, selective laser melting, hydrogen embrittlement

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1195 Acupoint Injection of High Concentration of Glucose Attenuates Mice Chronic Pain and Depression Comorbidity

Authors: Chanya Inprasit, Yi-Wen Lin

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Inflammation causes changes of peripheral and central nervous system properties, affecting both neuronal and non-neuronal cells, resulting in inflammatory pain. Acupoint injection (AI) was developed in the 1950s and has been widely used for relieving pain. It is an acupoint-stimulating technique that utilizes anatomically based meridians derived from Chinese medicine theory. AI has been accepted as an effective treatment and is thought to display superior results when compared to traditional acupuncture methods. However, the mechanism of AI needs to be ratified by more scientific evidence in order to support the theory and its therapeutic development. In this study, we explored the effect of AI on the comorbidity of chronic pain and depression. Mice hindpaw was injected by complete Freund’s adjuvant (CFA) to induce the condition of chronic pain. Measurements of mechanical and thermal hyperalgesia and depression-like behavior were analyzed. The results indicated a positive tendency to AI treatment. The comorbidity of chronic pain and depression was investigated with relation to transient receptor potential V1 (TRPV1) mechanism through the use of TRPV1 gene deletion. The expression of nociceptors such as voltage-gated sodium channels (Navs) or TRPV1, was significantly down-regulated by AI. The expression of inflammation-activated molecules: astrocytic marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), the microglial marker Iba-1, S100B, and related kinases, were reversed by AI in both the peripheral and central nervous system. Taken together, these data provided a detailed molecular mechanism of AI-induced analgesia and anti-inflammatory properties. This finding may be utilized for clinical practice to treat chronic pain and depression comorbidity.

Keywords: inflammatory pain, acupoint injection, TRPV1, GFAP, S100B

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1194 An Integrated CFD and Experimental Analysis on Double-Skin Window

Authors: Sheam-Chyun Lin, Wei-Kai Chen, Hung-Cheng Yen, Yung-Jen Cheng, Yu-Cheng Chen

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Result from the constant dwindle in natural resources, the alternative way to reduce the costs in our daily life would be urgent to be found in the near future. As the ancient technique based on the theory of solar chimney since roman times, the double-skin façade are simply composed of two large glass panels in purpose of daylighting and also natural ventilation in the daytime. Double-skin façade is generally installed on the exterior side of buildings as function as the window, so there’s always a huge amount of passive solar energy the façade would receive to induce the airflow every sunny day. Therefore this article imposes a domestic double-skin window for residential usage and attempts to improve the volume flow rate inside the cavity between the panels by the frame geometry design, the installation of outlet guide plate and the solar energy collection system. Note that the numerical analyses are applied to investigate the characteristics of flow field, and the boundary conditions in the simulation are totally based on the practical experiment of the original prototype. Then we redesign the prototype from the knowledge of the numerical results and fluid dynamic theory, and later the experiments of modified prototype will be conducted to verify the simulation results. The velocities at the inlet of each case are increase by 5%, 45% and 15% from the experimental data, and also the numerical simulation results reported 20% improvement in volume flow rate both for the frame geometry design and installation of outlet guide plate.

Keywords: solar energy, double-skin façades, thermal buoyancy, fluid machinery

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1193 Encapsulation of Flexible OLED with an Auxiliary Sealing Line

Authors: Hanjun Yun, Gun Bae, Nabin Paul, Cheolhee Moon

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Flexible OLED is an important technology for the next generation display over various kinds of applications. However, the organic materials of OLEDs degrade rapidly under the invasion of oxygen and water moisture. The degradation causes the formation of non-emitting areas which gradually suppress the device brightness, ultimately the lifetime of the device decreasing rapidly. Until now, the most suitable sealing process of the flexible OLED devices is a thin film encapsulation (TFE). However, TFE consists of a multilayer thin-film structure with organic-inorganic materials, so the cost is expensive and the process time is long. Another problem is that the blocking characteristics from the moisture and oxygen are not perfect. Therefore, the encapsulation of the flexible OLED device is a still key technical issue for the successful market entry. In this study, we are to introduce an auxiliary sealing line between the two flexible substrates. The electrode lines were formed on the substrates which have a SiNx barrier coating layer. To induce the solid phase diffusion process between the SiNx layer and the electrode lines, the electrode materials were determined as Al-Si composition. Thermal energy was supplied for both the SiNx layer and Al-Si electrode lines within the furnace to induce the interfacial bonding through the solid phase diffusion of Si. We printed a test pattern for the edge of the flexible PET substrate of 3cm*3cm size. Experimental conditions such as heating temperature, heating time were optimized to get enough adhesion strength which was estimated through the competitive bending test. Finally, OLED devices with flexible PET substrate of 3cm*3cm size were manufactured to investigate the blocking characteristics as an encapsulation layer.

Keywords: barrier, encapsulation, OLED, solid phase diffusion

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1192 Fieldwork on the Way That Greeks View the Migration under the 'Veil of Ignorance'

Authors: Nikoletta G. Karytsioti

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The European Union’s function and effectiveness are still an issue that minds, bringing about division even in the member-states interior. Recently, more serious issues have been added in the Union’s malfunction, which affects not only the Union’s function but also their residents’ safety. One of these issues is the migration crisis, which frustrates the European Union’s balances and the stability. The present paper’s aim to frame and interpret the Greek public opinion in basic migration matters, throughout the political philosophy and specifically via John Rawls ‘Theory of Justice’. The theory is deployed to examine if it may be used in a practical way, on a tangible issue and in a specific area. In order to obtain a real frame of the public opinion about the matter of migration, a questionnaire was addressed to Greek people. The sample was chosen for three main reasons: a) Greeks are experienced in the migration as they had migrated in the past, b) many young people migrated the recent years after the debt crisis, c) Greece is a reception state. Being based in the Theory of Justice and specifically in the ‘veil of ignorance’, is tried to overcome the obstacles of human nature’s subjectivity, while examining the variations in the responses per social group. The questionnaire will have demographic questions and special interest questions, related with the crisis, before and after ‘the veil of ignorance’. The paper’s originality comes from the fact that it is the first time that a philosophical theory is used to examine the migration issue in a practical manner. The main goals of the paper are three: - To examine the differences/similarities in the responses before and after the veil of ignorance, - to reveal opinions on migration crisis from E.U. citizens and - to confirm or not the practical usefulness of the Political Philosophy as a highlighting tool

Keywords: European Union, immigrants, migration crisis, political philosophy, theory of justice, veil of ignorance

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1191 Consequences of Transformation of Modern Monetary Policy during the Global Financial Crisis

Authors: Aleksandra Szunke

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Monetary policy is an important pillar of the economy, directly affecting on the condition of banking sector. Depending on the strategy may both support functioning of banking institutions, as well as limit their excessively risky activities. The literature studies indicate a large number of publications, which include characteristics of initiatives, implemented by central banks during the global financial crisis and the potential effects of the use of non-standard monetary policy instruments. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for the financial markets are still not final. Even before the escalation of instability, Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack (2004) analyzed the effectiveness of various unconventional monetary tools in lowering long-term interest rates in the United States and Japan. The obtained results largely confirmed the effectiveness of the zero-interest-rate policy and Quantitative Easing (QE) in achieving the goal of reducing long-term interest rates. Japan, considered as the precursor of QE policy, also conducted research about the consequences of non-standard instruments, implemented to restore financial stability of the country. Although the literature about the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan is extensive, it does not uniquely specify whether it brought permanent effects. The main aim of the study is to identify the implications of non-standard monetary policy, implemented by selected central banks (the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England and European Central Bank), paying particular attention to the consequences into three areas: the size of money supply, financial markets, and the real economy.

Keywords: consequences of modern monetary policy, quantitative easing policy, banking sector instability, global financial crisis

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1190 Plasma Ion Implantation Study: A Comparison between Tungsten and Tantalum as Plasma Facing Components

Authors: Tahreem Yousaf, Michael P. Bradley, Jerzy A. Szpunar

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Currently, nuclear fusion is considered one of the most favorable options for future energy generation, due both to its abundant fuel and lack of emissions. For fusion power reactors, a major problem will be a suitable material choice for the Plasma Facing Components (PFCs) which will constitute the reactor first wall. Tungsten (W) has advantages as a PFC material because of its high melting point, low vapour pressure, high thermal conductivity and low retention of hydrogen isotopes. However, several adverse effects such as embrittlement, melting and morphological evolution have been observed in W when it is bombarded by low-energy and high-fluence helium (He) and deuterium (D) ions, as a simulation conditions adjacent to a fusion plasma. Recently, tantalum (Ta) also investigate as PFC and show better reluctance to nanostructure fuzz as compared to W under simulated fusion plasma conditions. But retention of D ions found high in Ta than W. Preparatory to plasma-based ion implantation studies, the effect of D and He ion impact on W and Ta is predicted by using the stopping and range of ions in the matter (SRIM) code. SRIM provided some theoretical results regarding projected range, ion concentration (at. %) and displacement damage (dpa) in W and Ta. The projected range for W under Irradiation of He and D ions with an energy of 3-keV and 1×fluence is determined 75Å and 135 Å and for Ta 85Å and 155Å, respectively. For both W and Ta samples, the maximum implanted peak for helium is predicted ~ 5.3 at. % at 12 nm and for De ions concentration peak is located near 3.1 at. % at 25 nm. For the same parameters, the displacement damage for He ions is observed in W ~ 0.65 dpa and Ta ~ 0.35 dpa at 5 nm. For D ions the displacement damage for W ~ 0.20 dpa at 8 nm and Ta ~ 0.175 dpa at 7 nm. The mean implantation depth is same for W and Ta, i.e. for He ions ~ 40 nm and D ions ~ 70 nm. From these results, we conclude that retention of D is high than He ions, but damage is low for Ta as compared to W. Further investigation still in progress regarding W and T.

Keywords: helium and deuterium ion impact, plasma facing components, SRIM simulation, tungsten, tantalum

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1189 Remodeling of Gut Microbiome of Pakistani Expats in China After Intermittent Fasting/Ramadan Fasting

Authors: Hafiz Arbab Sakandar

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Time-restricted intermittent fasting (TRIF) impacts host’s physiology and health. Plenty of health benefits have been reported for TRIF in animal models. However, limited studies have been conducted on humans especially in underdeveloped economies. Here, we designed a study to investigate the impact of TRIF/Ramadan fasting (16:8) on the modulation of gut-microbiome structure, metabolic pathways, and predicted metabolites and explored the correlation among them at different time points (during and after the month of Ramadan) in Pakistani Expats living in China. We observed different trends of Shannon-Wiener index in different subjects; however, all subjects showed substantial change in bacterial diversity with the progression of TRIF. Moreover, the changes in gut microbial structure by the end of TRIF were higher vis-a-vis in the beginning, significant difference was observed among individuals. Additionally, metabolic pathways analysis revealed that amino acid, carbohydrate and energy metabolism, glycan biosynthesis metabolism of cofactors and vitamins were significantly affected by TRIF. Pyridoxamine, glutamate, citrulline, arachidonic acid, and short chain fatty acid showed substantial difference at different time points based on the predicted metabolism. In conclusion, these results contribute to further our understanding about the key relationship among, dietary intervention (TRIF), gut microbiome structure and function. The preliminary results from study demonstrate significant potential for elucidating the mechanisms underlying gut microbiome stability and enhancing the effectiveness of microbiome-tailored interventions among the Pakistani populace. Nonetheless, extensive, and rigorous large-scale research on the Pakistani population is necessary to expound on the association between diet, gut microbiome, and overall health.

Keywords: gut microbiome, health, fasting, functionality

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1188 Economic Evaluation of Varying Scenarios to Fulfill the Regional Electricity Demand in Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

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Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

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1187 Mn3O4-NiFe Layered Double Hydroxides(LDH)/Carbon Composite Cathode for Rechargeable Zinc-Air Battery

Authors: L. K. Nivedha, V. Maruthapandian, R. Kothandaraman

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Rechargeable zinc-air batteries (ZAB) are gaining significant research attention owing to their high energy density and copious zinc resources worldwide. However, the unsolved obstacles such as dendrites, passivation, depth of discharge and the lack of an efficient cathode catalyst restrict their practical application1. By and large, non-noble transition metal-based catalysts are well-reputed materials for catalysing oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) and oxygen evolution reaction (OER) with greater stability in alkaline medium2. Herein, we report the synthesis and application of Mn₃O4-NiFeLDH/Carbon composite as a cathode catalyst for rechargeable ZAB. The synergetic effects of the mixed transition metals (Mn/Ni/Fe) have aided in catalysing ORR and OER in alkaline electrolyte with a shallow potential gap of 0.7 V. The composite, by its distinctive physicochemical characteristics, shows an excellent OER activity with a current density of 1.5 mA cm⁻² at a potential of 1.6 V and a superior ORR activity with an onset potential of 0.8 V when compared with their counterparts. Nevertheless, the catalyst prefers a two-electron pathway for the electrochemical reduction of oxygen which results in a limiting current density of 2.5 mA cm⁻². The bifunctional activity of the Mn₃O₄-NiFeLDH/Carbon composite was utilized in developing rechargeable ZAB. The fully fabricated ZAB delivers an open circuit voltage of 1.4 V, a peak power density of 70 mW cm⁻², and a specific capacity of 800 mAh g⁻¹ at a current density of 20 mA cm⁻² with an average discharge voltage of 1 V and the cell is operable upto 50 mA cm-2. Rechargeable ZAB demonstrated over 110 h at 10 mA cm⁻². Further, the cause for the diminished charge-discharge performance experienced beyond the 100th cycle was investigated, and carbon corrosion was testified using Infrared spectroscopy.

Keywords: rechargeable zinc-air battery, oxygen evolution reaction, bifunctional catalyst, alkaline medium

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1186 Designing of Nano-materials for Waste Heat Conversion into Electrical Energy Thermoelectric generator

Authors: Wiqar Hussain Shah

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The electrical and thermal properties of the doped Tellurium Telluride (Tl10Te6) chalcogenide nano-particles are mainly characterized by a competition between metallic (hole doped concentration) and semi-conducting state. We have studied the effects of Sn doping on the electrical and thermoelectric properties of Tl10-xSnxTe6 (1.00 ≤x≤ 2.00), nano-particles, prepared by solid state reactions in sealed silica tubes and ball milling method. Structurally, all these compounds were found to be phase pure as confirmed by the x-rays diffractometery (XRD) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) analysis. Additionally crystal structure data were used to model the data and support the findings. The particles size was calculated from the XRD data by Scherrer’s formula. The EDS was used for an elemental analysis of the sample and declares the percentage of elements present in the system. The thermo-power or Seebeck co-efficient (S) was measured for all these compounds which show that S increases with increasing temperature from 295 to 550 K. The Seebeck coefficient is positive for the whole temperature range, showing p-type semiconductor characteristics. The electrical conductivity was investigated by four probe resistivity techniques revealed that the electrical conductivity decreases with increasing temperature, and also simultaneously with increasing Sn concentration. While for Seebeck coefficient the trend is opposite which is increases with increasing temperature. These increasing behavior of Seebeck coefficient leads to high power factor which are increases with increasing temperature and Sn concentration except For Tl8Sn2Te6 because of lowest electrical conductivity but its power factor increases well with increasing temperature.

Keywords: Sn doping in Tellurium Telluride nano-materials, electron holes competition, Seebeck co-efficient, effects of Sn doping on Electrical conductivity, effects on Power factor

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1185 Deubiquitinase USP35 Regulates Mitosis Progression by Blocking CDH1-Mediated Degradation of Aurora B.

Authors: Jinyoung Park, Eun Joo Song

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Introduction: Deubiquitinating enzymes (DUBs) are proteases that cleave ubiquitin or ubiquitin-like modifications on substrates. Deubiquitination could regulate cellular physiology, such as signal transduction, DNA damage and repair, and cell cycle progression. Although more than 100 DUBs are encoded in the human and the importance of DUBs has been realized, the functions of most DUBs are unknown. This study aims to identify the molecular mechanism by which deubiquitinating enzyme USP35 regulates cell cycle progression for the first time. Methods: USP35 RNAi was mainly used to identify the function of USP35 in cell cycle progression. To find substrates of USP35, we analyzed protein-protein interaction using LC-MS. Several biological methods, such as ubiquitination assay, cell synchronization, immunofluorescence, and immunoprecipitation assay were used to investigate the exact mechanism by which USP35 affects successful completion of mitosis. Results: USP35 knockdown caused not only reduction of mitotic cell number but also induction of mitotic cells with abnormal spindle formation. Actually, cell proliferation was decreased by USP35 knockdown. Interestingly, we found that loss of USP35 decreased the stability and expression of Aurora B, a member of chromosomal passenger complex (CPC), and the phosphorylation of its substrate. Indeed, USP35 interacted with Aurora B and deubiquitinated it. In addition, USP35 knockdown induced abnormal localization of Aurora B in mitotic cells. Finally, CDH1-mediated ubiquitination of Aurora B level was rescued by USP35 overexpression, but not inactive form of USP35, USP35 C450A. Discussion: Our findings suggest that USP35 regulates Aurora B-mediated mitotic spindle assembly and G2-M transition by blocking CDH1-induced degradation of Aurora B.

Keywords: USP35, HSP90, Aurora B, cell cycle progression

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1184 Analysis of the Detachment of Water Droplets from a Porous Fibrous Surface

Authors: Ibrahim Rassoul, E-K. Si Ahmed

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The growth, deformation, and detachment of fluid droplets adherent to solid substrates is a problem of fundamental interest with numerous practical applications. Specific interest in this proposal is the problem of a droplet on a fibrous, hydrophobic substrate subjected to body or external forces (gravity, convection). The past decade has seen tremendous advances in proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology. However, there remain many challenges to bring commercially viable stationary PEMFC products to the market. PEMFCs are increasingly emerging as a viable alternative clean power source for automobile and stationary applications. Before PEMFCs can be employed to power automobiles and homes, several key technical challenges must be properly addressed. One technical challenge is elucidating the mechanisms underlying water transport in and removal from PEMFCs. On the one hand, sufficient water is needed in the polymer electrolyte membrane or PEM to maintain sufficiently high proton conductivity. On the other hand, too much liquid water present in the cathode can cause 'flooding' (that is, pore space is filled with excessive liquid water) and hinder the transport of the oxygen reactant from the gas flow channel (GFC) to the three-phase reaction sites. The aim of this work is to investigate the stability of a liquid water droplet emerging form a GDL pore, to gain fundamental insight into the instability process leading to detachment. The approach will combine analytical and numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cell, water droplet, gas diffusion layer, contact angle, surface tension

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1183 Numerical Study of Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer in Microchannel with Thin Obstacles

Authors: Malorzata Kmiotek, Anna Kucaba-Pietal, Robert Smusz

Abstract:

Due to the miniaturisation process, in many technical devices, microchannels are used in cooling systems. Because of the small size of microchannels, the flow inside is laminar, which caused a slow heat exchange. In order to intensify the heat exchange, the flow must be disturbed, for example, by introducing obstacles. We present results on the influence of a thin obstacle, placed on microchannel wall, on the fluid and heat flow in the aspect of their use by constructors of heat exchangers. The obstacle is called 'thin' when its geometrical parameter (o=w/h, w- width, h - height of the obstacle) satisfies inequality: o < 0.5. In this work, we report numerical results on heat and mass transfer in the microchannels of 400 micrometer height (H - height of the microchannel), where thin obstacles are immersed on the walls, to disturb the flow. The Reynolds number of the flow in microchannel varies between 20 and 200 and is typical for the flow in micro heat exchangers. The equations describing the fluid and heat flows in microchannels were solved numerically by using the finite element method with an application of CFD&FSI package of ADINA R&D, Inc. 9.4 solver. In the case of flows in the microchannels with sequences of thin rectangular obstacles placed on the bottom and the top wall of a microchannel, the influence of distances s (s is the distance between two thin obstacles) and heights of obstacles on the fluid and heat transfer was investigated. Thermal and flow conditions of the application area of microchannels in electronic cooling systems, i.e., wall temperature of 60 °C, the fluid temperature of 20°C were used to solve equations. Additionally, the distance s between the thin obstacles in microchannels as a multiple of the amount of the channel height was determined. Results show that placing thin obstacles on microchannel walls increase the length of recirculation zones of the flow and improves the heat transfer.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, heat transfer, mechanical engineering, microchannel

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1182 Binding Mechanism of Synthesized 5β-Dihydrocortisol and 5β-Dihydrocortisol Acetate with Human Serum Albumin to Understand Their Role in Breast Cancer

Authors: Monika Kallubai, Shreya Dubey, Rajagopal Subramanyam

Abstract:

Our study is all about the biological interactions of synthesized 5β-dihydrocortisol (Dhc) and 5β-dihydrocortisol acetate (DhcA) molecules with carrier protein Human Serum Albumin (HSA). The cytotoxic study was performed on breast cancer cell line (MCF-7) normal human embryonic kidney cell line (HEK293), the IC50 values for MCF-7 cells were 28 and 25 µM, respectively, whereas no toxicity in terms of cell viability was observed with HEK293 cell line. The further experiment proved that Dhc and DhcA induced 35.6% and 37.7% early apoptotic cells and 2.5%, 2.9% late apoptotic cells respectively. Morphological observation of cell death through TUNEL assay revealed that Dhc and DhcA induced apoptosis in MCF-7 cells. The complexes of HSA–Dhc and HSA–DhcA were observed as static quenching, and the binding constants (K) was 4.7±0.03×104 M-1 and 3.9±0.05×104 M-1, and their binding free energies were found to be -6.4 and -6.16 kcal/mol, respectively. The displacement studies confirmed that lidocaine 1.4±0.05×104 M-1 replaced Dhc, and phenylbutazone 1.5±0.05×104 M-1 replaced by DhcA, which explains domain I and domain II are the binding sites for Dhc and DhcA. Further, CD results revealed that the secondary structure of HSA was altered in the presence of Dhc and DhcA. Furthermore, the atomic force microscopy and transmission electron microscopy showed that the dimensions like height and molecular sizes of the HSA–Dhc and HSA–DhcA complex were larger compared to HSA alone. Detailed analysis through molecular dynamics simulations also supported the greater stability of HSA–Dhc and HSA–DhcA complexes, and root-mean-square-fluctuation interpreted the binding site of Dhc as domain IB and domain IIA for DhcA. This information is valuable for the further development of steroid derivatives with improved pharmacological significance as novel anti-cancer drugs.

Keywords: apoptosis, dihydrocortisol, fluorescence quenching, protein conformations

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1181 Optimal Power Distribution and Power Trading Control among Loads in a Smart Grid Operated Industry

Authors: Vivek Upadhayay, Siddharth Deshmukh

Abstract:

In recent years utilization of renewable energy sources has increased majorly because of the increase in global warming concerns. Organization these days are generally operated by Micro grid or smart grid on a small level. Power optimization and optimal load tripping is possible in a smart grid based industry. In any plant or industry loads can be divided into different categories based on their importance to the plant and power requirement pattern in the working days. Coming up with an idea to divide loads in different such categories and providing different power management algorithm to each category of load can reduce the power cost and can come handy in balancing stability and reliability of power. An objective function is defined which is subjected to a variable that we are supposed to minimize. Constraint equations are formed taking difference between the power usages pattern of present day and same day of previous week. By considering the objectives of minimal load tripping and optimal power distribution the proposed problem formulation is a multi-object optimization problem. Through normalization of each objective function, the multi-objective optimization is transformed to single-objective optimization. As a result we are getting the optimized values of power required to each load for present day by use of the past values of the required power for the same day of last week. It is quite a demand response scheduling of power. These minimized values then will be distributed to each load through an algorithm used to optimize the power distribution at a greater depth. In case of power storage exceeding the power requirement, profit can be made by selling exceeding power to the main grid.

Keywords: power flow optimization, power trading enhancement, smart grid, multi-object optimization

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1180 Simulation-Based Evaluation of Indoor Air Quality and Comfort Control in Non-Residential Buildings

Authors: Torsten Schwan, Rene Unger

Abstract:

Simulation of thermal and electrical building performance more and more becomes part of an integrative planning process. Increasing requirements on energy efficiency, the integration of volatile renewable energy, smart control and storage management often cause tremendous challenges for building engineers and architects. This mainly affects commercial or non-residential buildings. Their energy consumption characteristics significantly distinguish from residential ones. This work focuses on the many-objective optimization problem indoor air quality and comfort, especially in non-residential buildings. Based on a brief description of intermediate dependencies between different requirements on indoor air treatment it extends existing Modelica-based building physics models with additional system states to adequately represent indoor air conditions. Interfaces to corresponding HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) system and control models enable closed-loop analyzes of occupants' requirements and energy efficiency as well as profitableness aspects. A complex application scenario of a nearly-zero-energy school building shows advantages of presented evaluation process for engineers and architects. This way, clear identification of air quality requirements in individual rooms together with realistic model-based description of occupants' behavior helps to optimize HVAC system already in early design stages. Building planning processes can be highly improved and accelerated by increasing integration of advanced simulation methods. Those methods mainly provide suitable answers on engineers' and architects' questions regarding more exuberant and complex variety of suitable energy supply solutions.

Keywords: indoor air quality, dynamic simulation, energy efficient control, non-residential buildings

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1179 Organic Geochemistry of the Late Cenomanian–Early Turonian Source Rock in Central and Northern Tunisia

Authors: Belhaj Mohamed, M. Saidi, I. Bouazizi, M. Soussi, M. Ben Jrad

Abstract:

The Late Cenomanian-Early Turonian laminated, black, organic-rich limestones were described in Central Tunisia and attributed to the Bahloul Formation. It covers central and northern Tunisia, and the northern part of the Gulf of Gabes. The Bahloul Formation is considered as one of the main source rocks in Tunisia and is composed of outer-shelf to slop-laminated and dark-gray to black-colored limestones and marls. This formation had been deposited in a relatively deep-marine, calm, and anoxic environment. Rock-Eval analysis and vitrinite reflectance (Ro) measurements were performed on the basis of the organic carbon content. Several samples were chosen for molecular organic geochemistry. Saturate and aromatic hydrocarbons were analyzed by gas chromatography (GC) and GC–mass spectrometry. Geochemical data of the Bahloul Formation in northern and central Tunisia show this level to be a good potential source rock as indicated by the high content of type II organic matter. This formation exhibits high total organic carbon contents (as much as 14%), with an average value of 2% and a good to excellent petroleum potential, ranging between 2 and 50 kg of hydrocarbon/ton of rock. The extracts from the Bahloul Formation are characterized by Pr/Ph ratios ranging between 1.5 and 3, a moderate diasterane content, a C27 sterane approximately equal to C29 sterane, a high C28/C29 ratio, low gammacerane index, a C35/C34 homohopane ratio less than 1 and carbon isotope compositions between -24 and -26‰. The thermal maturity is relatively low, corresponding to the beginning of the oil window in the western area near the Algerian border, in the oil window in the eastern area (Sahel basin) and late mature in northern part.

Keywords: biomarkers, organic geochemistry, source rock, Tunisia

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1178 Effect of Fire Retardant Painting Product on Smoke Optical Density of Burning Natural Wood Samples

Authors: Abdullah N. Olimat, Ahmad S. Awad, Faisal M. AL-Ghathian

Abstract:

Natural wood is used in many applications in Jordan such as furniture, partitions constructions, and cupboards. Experimental work for smoke produced by the combustion of certain wood samples was studied. Smoke generated from burning of natural wood, is considered as a major cause of death in furniture fires. The critical parameter for life safety in fires is the available time for escape, so the visual obscuration due to smoke release during fire is taken into consideration. The effect of smoke, produced by burning of wood, depends on the amount of smoke released in case of fire. The amount of smoke production, apparently, affects the time available for the occupants to escape. To achieve the protection of life of building occupants during fire growth, fire retardant painting products are tested. The tested samples of natural wood include Beech, Ash, Beech Pine, and white Beech Pine. A smoke density chamber manufactured by fire testing technology has been used to perform measurement of smoke properties. The procedure of test was carried out according to the ISO-5659. A nonflammable vertical radiant heat flux of 25 kW/m2 is exposed to the wood samples in a horizontal orientation. The main objective of the current study is to carry out the experimental tests for samples of natural woods to evaluate the capability to escape in case of fire and the fire safety requirements. Specific optical density, transmittance, thermal conductivity, and mass loss are main measured parameters. Also, comparisons between samples with paint and with no paint are carried out between the selected samples of woods.

Keywords: extinction coefficient, optical density, transmittance, visibility

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1177 Formulation of Highly Dosed Drugs Using Different Granulation Techniques: A Comparative Study

Authors: Ezeddin Kolaib

Abstract:

Paracetamol tablets and cimetidine tablets were prepared by single-step granulation/tabletting and by compression after high shear granulation. The addition of PVP (polyvinylpyrrolidone) was essential for single-step granulation/tabletting of formulation containing high concentrations of paracetamol or cimetidine. Paracetamol tablets without and with PVP obtained by single-step granulation/tabletting exhibited a significantly higher tensile strength, a significantly lower disintegration time, a lower friability and a faster dissolution compared to those prepared by compression after high shear granulation. Cimetidine tablets with PVP obtained by single-step granulation/tabletting exhibited a significantly lower tensile strength, a significantly lower disintegration time and a faster dissolution compared to those prepared by compression after high shear granulation. Single-step granulation/tabletting allowed to produce tablets containing up to 80% paracetamol or cimetidine with a dissolution profile complying with the USP requirements. For pure paracetamol or pure cimetidine the addition of crospovidone as a disintegrant was required to obtain a dissolution profile that complied with the pharmacopoeial requirements. Long term and accelerated stability studies of paracetamol tablets produced by single-step granulation/tabletting over a period of one year showed no significant influence on the tablet tensile strength, friability and dissolution. Although a significant increase of the disintegration time was observed, it remained below 10 min. These results indicated that single-step granulation/tabletting could be an efficient technique for the production of highly dosed drugs such as paracetamol and cimetidine.

Keywords: single-step granulation/tabletting, twin screw extrusion, high shear granulation, high dosage drugs, paracetamol, cimetidine

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1176 Investigating the Suitability of Utilizing Lyophilized Gels to Improve the Stability of Ufasomes

Authors: Mona Hassan Aburahma, Alaa Hamed Salama

Abstract:

Ufasomes “unsaturated fatty acids liposomes” are unique nano-sized self-assembled bilayered vesicles that can be easily created from the readily available unsaturated fatty acid. Ufasomes are formed due to weak associative interaction of the fully ionized and unionized fatty acids into bilayers structures. In the ufasomes constructs, the fatty acid molecules are oriented with their hydrocarbon tails directed toward the membrane interior and the carboxyl groups are in contact with water. Although ufasomes can be employed as a safe vesicular carrier for drugs, the extreme instability of their aqueous dispersions hinders their effective use in drug delivery field. Accordingly, in our study, lyophilized gels containing ufasomes were prepared using a simple assembling technique form the readily available oleic acid to overcome the colloidal instability of the ufasomes dispersions and convert them into accurate unit dosage forms. The influence of changing cholesterol percentage relative to oleic acid on the ufasomes vesicles were investigated using factorial design. The optimized oleic acid ufasomes comprised nanoscaled spherical vesicles. Scanning electron micrographs of the lyophilized gels revealed that the included ufasomes were intact, non-aggregating, and preserved their spherical morphology. Rheological characterization (viscosity and shear stress versus shear rate) of reconstituted ufasomal lyophilized gel ensured the ease of application. The capability of the ufasomes, included in the gel, to penetrate deep through the mucosa layers was illustrated using ex-vivo confocal laser imaging, thereby, highlighting the feasibility of stabilizing ufasomes using lyophilized gel platforms.

Keywords: ufasomes, lyophilized gel, confocal scanning microscopy, rheological characterization, oleic acid

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1175 Photocatalytic Degradation of Methylene Blue Dye Using Cuprous Oxide/Graphene Nanocomposite

Authors: Bekan Bogale, Tsegaye Girma Asere, Tilahun Yai, Fekadu Melak

Abstract:

Aims: To study photocatalytic degradation of methylene blue dye on cuprous oxide/graphene nanocomposite. Background: Cuprous oxide (Cu2O) nanoparticles are among the metal oxides that demonstrated photocatalytic activity. However, the stability of Cu2O nanoparticles due to the fast recombination rate of electron/hole pairs remains a significant challenge in their photocatalytic applications. This, in turn, leads to mismatching of the effective bandgap separation, tending to reduce the photocatalytic activity of the desired organic waste (MB). To overcome these limitations, graphene has been combined with cuprous oxides, resulting in cuprous oxide/graphene nanocomposite as a promising photocatalyst. Objective: In this study, Cu2O/graphene nanocomposite was synthesized and evaluated for its photocatalytic performance of methylene blue (MB) dye degradation. Method: Cu2O/graphene nanocomposites were synthesized from graphite powder and copper nitrate using the facile sol-gel method. Batch experiments have been conducted to assess the applications of the nanocomposites for MB degradation. Parameters such as contact time, catalyst dosage, and pH of the solution were optimized for maximum MB degradation. The prepared nanocomposites were characterized by using UV-Vis, FTIR, XRD, and SEM. The photocatalytic performance of Cu2O/graphene nanocomposites was compared against Cu2O nanoparticles for cationic MB dye degradation. Results: Cu2O/graphene nanocomposite exhibits higher photocatalytic activity for MB degradation (with a degradation efficiency of 94%) than pure Cu2O nanoparticles (67%). This has been accomplished after 180 min of irradiation under visible light. The kinetics of MB degradation by Cu2O/graphene composites can be demonstrated by the second-order kinetic model. The synthesized nanocomposite can be used for more than three cycles of photocatalytic MB degradation. Conclusion: This work indicated new insights into Cu2O/graphene nanocomposite as high-performance in photocatalysis to degrade MB, playing a great role in environmental protection in relation to MB dye.

Keywords: methylene blue, photocatalysis, cuprous oxide, graphene nanocomposite

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1174 Partial Purification and Characterization of a Low Molecular Weight and Industrially Important Chitinase and a Chitin Deacetylase Enzyme from Streptomyces Chilikensis RC1830, a Novel Strain Isolated from Chilika Lake, India

Authors: Lopamudra Ray, Malla Padma, Dibya Bhol, Samir Ranjan Mishra, A. N. Panda, Gurdeep Rastogi, T. K. Adhya, Ajit Kumar Pattnaik, Mrutyunjay Suar, Vishakha Raina

Abstract:

Chilika Lake is the largest coastal estuarine brackish water lagoon in Asia situated on the east coast of India and is a designated Ramsar site. In the current study, several chitinolytic microorganisms were isolated and screened by appearance of clearance zone on 0.5% colloidal chitin agar plate. A strain designated as RC 1830 displayed maximum colloidal chitin degradation by release of 112 μmol/ml/min of N-acetyl D-glucosamine (GlcNAc) in 48h. The strain was taxonomically identified by polyphasic approach based on a range of phenotypic and genotypic properties and was found to be a novel species named Streptomyces chilikensis RC1830. The organism was halophilic (12% NaCl w/v), alkalophilic (pH10) and was capable of hydrolyzing chitin, starch, cellulose, gelatin, casein, tributyrin and tween 80. The partial purification of chitinase enzymes from RC1830 was performed by DEAE Sephacel anion exchange chromatography which revealed the presence of a very low molecular weight chitinase(10.5kD) which may be a probable chitobiosidase enzyme. The study reports the presence of a low MW chitinase (10.5kD) and a chitin decaetylase from a novel Streptomyces strain RC1830 isolated from Chilika Lake. Previously chitinases less than 20.5kD have not been reported from any other Streptomyces species. The enzymes was characterized with respect to optimum pH, temperature, and substrate specificity and temperature stability.

Keywords: chitinases, chitobiosidase, Chilika Lake, India

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1173 Comparative Study of Electronic and Optical Properties of Ammonium and Potassium Dinitramide Salts through Ab-Initio Calculations

Authors: J. Prathap Kumar, G. Vaitheeswaran

Abstract:

The present study investigates the role of ammonium and potassium ion in the electronic, bonding and optical properties of dinitramide salts due to their stability and non-toxic nature. A detailed analysis of bonding between NH₄ and K with dinitramide, optical transitions from the valence band to the conduction band, absorption spectra, refractive indices, reflectivity, loss function are reported. These materials are well known as oxidizers in solid rocket propellants. In the present work, we use full potential linear augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) method which is implemented in the Wien2k package within the framework of density functional theory. The standard DFT functional local density approximation (LDA) and generalized gradient approximation (GGA) always underestimate the band gap by 30-40% due to the lack of derivative discontinuities of the exchange-correlation potential with respect to an occupation number. In order to get reliable results, one must use hybrid functional (HSE-PBE), GW calculations and Tran-Blaha modified Becke-Johnson (TB-mBJ) potential. It is very well known that hybrid functionals GW calculations are very expensive, the later methods are computationally cheap. The new developed TB-mBJ functionals use information kinetic energy density along with the charge density employed in DFT. The TB-mBJ functionals cannot be used for total energy calculations but instead yield very much improved band gap. The obtained electronic band gap at gamma point for both the ammonium dinitramide and potassium dinitramide are found to be 2.78 eV and 3.014 eV with GGA functional, respectively. After the inclusion of TB-mBJ, the band gap improved by 4.162 eV for potassium dinitramide and 4.378 eV for ammonium dinitramide. The nature of the band gap is direct in ADN and indirect in KDN. The optical constants such as dielectric constant, absorption, and refractive indices, birefringence values are presented. Overall as there are no experimental studies we present the improved band gap with TB-mBJ functional following with optical properties.

Keywords: ammonium dinitramide, potassium dinitramide, DFT, propellants

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1172 Adjusting Electricity Demand Data to Account for the Impact of Loadshedding in Forecasting Models

Authors: Migael van Zyl, Stefanie Visser, Awelani Phaswana

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The electricity landscape in South Africa is characterized by frequent occurrences of loadshedding, a measure implemented by Eskom to manage electricity generation shortages by curtailing demand. Loadshedding, classified into stages ranging from 1 to 8 based on severity, involves the systematic rotation of power cuts across municipalities according to predefined schedules. However, this practice introduces distortions in recorded electricity demand, posing challenges to accurate forecasting essential for budgeting, network planning, and generation scheduling. Addressing this challenge requires the development of a methodology to quantify the impact of loadshedding and integrate it back into metered electricity demand data. Fortunately, comprehensive records of loadshedding impacts are maintained in a database, enabling the alignment of Loadshedding effects with hourly demand data. This adjustment ensures that forecasts accurately reflect true demand patterns, independent of loadshedding's influence, thereby enhancing the reliability of electricity supply management in South Africa. This paper presents a methodology for determining the hourly impact of load scheduling and subsequently adjusting historical demand data to account for it. Furthermore, two forecasting models are developed: one utilizing the original dataset and the other using the adjusted data. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate forecast accuracy improvements resulting from the adjustment process. By implementing this methodology, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding electricity infrastructure investments, resource allocation, and operational planning, contributing to the overall stability and efficiency of South Africa's electricity supply system.

Keywords: electricity demand forecasting, load shedding, demand side management, data science

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